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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Paying the price of TMay’s GE17 gamble. Tonight the saboteurs

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Paying the price of TMay’s GE17 gamble. Tonight the saboteurs struck back and won

We all remember the memorable front page of Dacre’s Daily Mail the day after Theresa May called her snap general election in April.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • As with so many aspects of Brexit, something that the government opposed will work to its advantage.
  • As with so many aspects of Brexit, something that the government opposed will work to its advantage.

    Like the spectacular own goal court case brought by Miss Miller. The Government lost, but the result was the passing into law of the date of exit.

    It makes Brexiteers far more relaxed about the ups and downs since.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    edited December 2017
    Apart from brief embarrassment for the government Parliament being given yet another vote on Brexit after voting for the referendum and then voting to invoke Article 50 really does not change much. If the government agreed a final deal with the EU it will be either take it or leave it, the EU is not going to offer the UK a vastly improved new deal because Parliament voted down the deal
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650

    As with so many aspects of Brexit, something that the government opposed will work to its advantage.

    Like the spectacular own goal court case brought by Miss Miller. The Government lost, but the result was the passing into law of the date of exit.

    It makes Brexiteers far more relaxed about the ups and downs since.
    Blimey if this is the Brexiteers being relaxed, I'd hate to see them get worked up...

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    HYUFD said:

    Apart from brief embarrassment for the government Parliament being given yet another vote on Brexit after voting for the referendum and then voting to invoke Article 50 really does not change much. If the government agreed a final deal with the EU it will be either take it or leave it, the EU is not going to offer the UK a vastly improved new deal because Parliament voted down the deal

    Agreed. As we have been informed on many occasions given the EU's positions.

    As with so many aspects of Brexit, something that the government opposed will work to its advantage.

    Seems like they need to muck up more often.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    As with so many aspects of Brexit, something that the government opposed will work to its advantage.

    Like the spectacular own goal court case brought by Miss Miller. The Government lost, but the result was the passing into law of the date of exit.

    It makes Brexiteers far more relaxed about the ups and downs since.
    Blimey if this is the Brexiteers being relaxed, I'd hate to see them get worked up...

    There's Brexiters and then there are Brexiters, if you follow me. Ultras are not good examples of either side, and nor are the highly reactionary loudmouths.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    Chris Froome says his legacy will not be tainted, Yeah, that's what they all say. At first.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,828
    Doesn't Dominic Raab look like Ric Mayall
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    edited December 2017
    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    "Parliament is now going to be involved a lot more in the final decision on the deal something that Team Theresa had been trying to avoid."

    Really? Parliament will get a vote on the final Brexit deal struck with Brussels. That's all.

    I can't for the life of me see why the government felt they had to die in a ditch over that one. In fact, it will help them immensely because Parlaiment will pass a sensible Brexit with a big majority and the Tory hard-brexiteers will just have to accept it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It would have been an equally good day for it if the vote had gone the other way. That the vote was held made it good democracy, never mind the outcome.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    Mischievous, but true.
  • HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It is a lesson they need to learn themselves. Has Germany got a government yet
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    "Parliament is now going to be involved a lot more in the final decision on the deal something that Team Theresa had been trying to avoid."

    Really? Parliament will get a vote on the final Brexit deal struck with Brussels. That's all.

    I can't for the life of me see why the government felt they had to die in a ditch over that one. In fact, it will help them immensely because Parlaiment will pass a sensible Brexit with a big majority and the Tory hard-brexiteers will just have to accept it.

    TMay is a genius - by fighting and losing the A50 case and this amendment, the die hards cannot say she did not fight those dastardly remoaners, and that means they have to help her at least get something through, even if it is softer, or else no Brexit at all might happen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It would have been an equally good day for it if the vote had gone the other way. That the vote was held made it good democracy, never mind the outcome.
    I personally am not bothered either way, I cannot see Parliament voting down an agreed deal
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650

    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It is a lesson they need to learn themselves. Has Germany got a government yet
    I think it's fair to say the EU have had their act together over the Brexit negotiations much better than the UK to date!
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    At the end of the day, MPs will honour what a majority of the British people -to leave the EU, and end freedom of movement. If they dont, they will pay a
    heavy price.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It is a lesson they need to learn themselves. Has Germany got a government yet
    They? He's Belgian isn't he?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It would have been an equally good day for it if the vote had gone the other way. That the vote was held made it good democracy, never mind the outcome.
    I personally am not bothered either way, I cannot see Parliament voting down an agreed deal
    You're right there HYUFD. Nice to be able to agree with you for a change! :wink:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,365
    edited December 2017
    Why I don't bet on cricket....

    Sun investigation smashes bookies’ multi-million pound plot to rig third Ashes test

    Two bookies offered to sell us details of rigged periods of play which could be bet on to win millions of pounds.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5133944/sun-investigation-smashes-bookies-multi-million-pound-plot-to-rig-third-ashes-test/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650

    Why I don't bet on cricket....

    Sun investigation smashes bookies’ multi-million pound plot to rig third Ashes test

    Two bookies offered to sell us details of rigged periods of play which could be bet on to win millions of pounds.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5133944/sun-investigation-smashes-bookies-multi-million-pound-plot-to-rig-third-ashes-test/

    So, no hope at all for England then?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    Foolproof - this pair should run our Brexit neogitations

    A pair of lovers in India have been accused of killing the woman's husband and then seeking cosmetic surgery so the male lover could take his place.

    Acid was poured in the male lover's face in a staged attack, with the pair planning to say it had been transformed after surgery, police in the southern state of Telangana said.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-42335236
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It is a lesson they need to learn themselves. Has Germany got a government yet
    They? He's Belgian isn't he?
    The EU
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It is a lesson they need to learn themselves. Has Germany got a government yet
    They? He's Belgian isn't he?
    The EU
    Why bring up Germany's lack of government then? That's one thing that is not much to do with the EU, or things it has to learn.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,769
    image.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It is a lesson they need to learn themselves. Has Germany got a government yet
    They? He's Belgian isn't he?
    The EU
    Why bring up Germany's lack of government then? That's one thing that is not much to do with the EU, or things it has to learn.
    To be fair the Germans were supposed to be deciding their coalition today and that was the reason for my comment. Does anyone know the present position in Germany
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It is a lesson they need to learn themselves. Has Germany got a government yet
    They? He's Belgian isn't he?
    The EU
    Why bring up Germany's lack of government then? That's one thing that is not much to do with the EU, or things it has to learn.
    To be fair the Germans were supposed to be deciding their coalition today and that was the reason for my comment. Does anyone know the present position in Germany
    Someone said yesterday the negotiations might still take months!

    My totally uneducated guess is the SPD will cave - apparently the germans really don;t like this instability, and a new election would probably return something similar, so the pressure is on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    So Meghan Markle is spending Xmas with the Queen and company? That'll be a test of her acting skills.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It is a lesson they need to learn themselves. Has Germany got a government yet
    They? He's Belgian isn't he?
    The EU
    Why bring up Germany's lack of government then? That's one thing that is not much to do with the EU, or things it has to learn.
    To be fair the Germans were supposed to be deciding their coalition today and that was the reason for my comment. Does anyone know the present position in Germany
    Someone said yesterday the negotiations might still take months!

    My totally uneducated guess is the SPD will cave - apparently the germans really don;t like this instability, and a new election would probably return something similar, so the pressure is on.
    Schultz seems to be still talking federal Europe and I wondered if that had changed following today's supposed talks
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It would have been an equally good day for it if the vote had gone the other way. That the vote was held made it good democracy, never mind the outcome.
    I personally am not bothered either way, I cannot see Parliament voting down an agreed deal
    You're right there HYUFD. Nice to be able to agree with you for a change! :wink:
    Agreed
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 4,982
    Something happened last night and it's important from a betting perspective. Let me remind you what I said last night before the polls closed.

    I haven't got time to hang around tonight, but I need to point out that the Alabama election is yet another case where a mode effect may be in play. Consider

    Alabama 17: robocall polls vs personal contact polls
    GE 17: polls with turnout models vs polls with corrected sample frames
    EUref 16: telephone vs online polls
    GE15: I forget which, but it was that Matt Singh thing

    If this does turn out to be another surprising election - Moore wins convincingly or the Dem squeaks thru - then it's another twig on the evidence pile for the proposition that the detection of a mode effect may be the best way forward for betting.


    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1799560#Comment_1799560

    This does not indicate which way to bet, but it does mean that we may be able to predict a polling upset before the polls close.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,086
    But, and here's the question, will TMay think the games worth playing....
  • FPT

    My own view, as a Remain voter, is that I think a Brexit deal approved by parliament stands a better chance of uniting the country than one approved by just the government does. Certainly I'll be more inclined to look on any deal with less hostile eyes if parliament approves it. It's not about stopping Brexit - that ship has sailed, sadly.

    I think this is one of the more sensible comments of the evening.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    FPT

    My own view, as a Remain voter, is that I think a Brexit deal approved by parliament stands a better chance of uniting the country than one approved by just the government does. Certainly I'll be more inclined to look on any deal with less hostile eyes if parliament approves it. It's not about stopping Brexit - that ship has sailed, sadly.

    I think this is one of the more sensible comments of the evening.
    I agree. It means that the MPs have to own the Deal.
  • A little snippet from today's employment data:

    ' NHS employment increased by 8,000 (0.5%) on the quarter and 33,000 (2.1%) on the year. At 1.629 million it is the highest level since comparable records began and accounts for 30% of total public sector employment (PSE). '

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/publicsectorpersonnel/bulletins/publicsectoremployment/september2017

    In fact from 1999 to 2017 full time equivalent employment in the NHS has increased from under a million to approaching a million and a half.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    What's with the quotes around 'unelected' in the Crush the Saboteurs Headline? Are there some elected Lords (not including the newer hereditaries, elected by, literally, their peers)
  • As with so many aspects of Brexit, something that the government opposed will work to its advantage.

    That's pretty much my view.

    But, the incessant Remainer crowing this evening is starting to get on my nerves, so I will log off for the night.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    Cannot help themselves, the Mail. Also I thought it was 12 rebels.?

    Interesting, however, that the possibility of a Marxist in No.10 as a result of this is listed as more damning than betraying their party leader and even more damning than betraying Brexit - are the Mail saying it is ok to abandon Brexit if that is the price to avoid Corbyn in No, 10?
  • One final point: I honestly don't know why Heidi Allen bothered joining the Conservative Party.

    I can't recall a single Conservative thing she'd said, defended, or done. And that goes right back to when she was elected, well before Brexit, when she was pulling the same stunts with Cameron and Osborne.

    Was it just to piss all over it from the inside?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,443
    “Self obsessed malcontents “ = good summary.

    They haven’t achieved anything positive for the county with their petulance - quite the opposite.

    Barnier will be a happy man tonight.
  • So are we all ready for the free of spot fixing 3rd Test....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,459

    As with so many aspects of Brexit, something that the government opposed will work to its advantage.

    That's pretty much my view.

    But, the incessant Remainer crowing this evening is starting to get on my nerves, so I will log off for the night.
    Just remember the Brexit golden rule. Anything that Remainers cheer goes on to hurt their cause.
  • Once again the Mail reaches for "treachery" from the thesaurus. Perhaps Leavers might care to disown this latest attempt to delegitimise alternative points of view?
  • Another interesting employment stat.

    In the July to September 2017 quarter just finished there were a total of 457,000 people employed in the entire agriculture, fisheries and forestry sector.

    Now lets compare this total to that of the same quarter in previous years:

    2017 457,000
    2016 420,000
    2015 427,000
    2014 443,000
    2013 373,000
    2012 404,000
    2011 434,000
    2010 410,000
    2009 399,000
    2008 390,000
    2007 380,000

    In fact you have to go back 20 years to find agricultural sector employment at the same level.

    Likewise the April to June and January to March quarters also had the highest level of agricultural employment since the 1990s.

    So there's no shortage of agricultural workers and if any farmer is whining that he can't get workers its because he wont pay a fair wage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    Once again the Mail reaches for "treachery" from the thesaurus. Perhaps Leavers might care to disown this latest attempt to delegitimise alternative points of view?
    Sure, though you're never satisfied when people do. I must say though that compared to mutineers and saboteurs, this one is tame by comparison. Hell, its even framed it as a question directed at them, perhaps the Mail are growing after all.
  • kle4 said:

    Once again the Mail reaches for "treachery" from the thesaurus. Perhaps Leavers might care to disown this latest attempt to delegitimise alternative points of view?
    Sure, though you're never satisfied when people do. I must say though that compared to mutineers and saboteurs, this one is tame by comparison. Hell, its even framed it as a question directed at them, perhaps the Mail are growing after all.
    Given all the mewling and puking I get when I make the entirely factual observation that Leavers surfed to victory on xenophobic lies, I'm continually astonished that these sensitive souls are able to stomach entirely unfounded accusations of sabotage, mutiny, treachery and the labelling of opponents as quislings. So no, I'm not satisfied.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,948
    Dyson would be proud of some of the Leaver spinning here tonight.
  • For all that I want Brexit to happen and am sure it will, I cannot find it in myself to criticise MPs for voting to give Parliament more say over the form of Brexit.

    I do actually think that in this case it is kind of pointless as the choice they will have will be between accepting whatever deal comes back or having a hard Brexit. But the basic principle of Parliament having a say in these matters is not one that I think anyone who values democracy should criticise.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,020
    The deal at the end of 2019 is ~ 99% guaranteed to essentially be a transition deal. But we will definitely be out of the EU at that point.
    So if MPs were to vote the deal down, we'd be out with no deal - which would be pretty catastrophic.
    Working backwards that means to be out with a deal, parliament has to vote the deal through.

    Voting the deal down doesn't stop brexit, it stops the deal.
  • Once again the Mail reaches for "treachery" from the thesaurus. Perhaps Leavers might care to disown this latest attempt to delegitimise alternative points of view?
    One might as well ask us to disown the Beano. The Mail is about as meaningful and insightful as Denis the Menace at the moment.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Hurrah from Istanbul airport. This is good news indeed. Yesterday Alabama, today Parliament is sovereign. I didn't think Dominic Grieve would carry it out. Good on him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,020
    I still think the Gov't has the numbers to get a Brexit deal past the house; Hoey, Hopkins and Field voted to give themselves a vote here (And embarass the Gov't) .. not stop the process.
  • I can't take this sort of thing seriously since I learnt that Dacre claims a fortune in EU farming subsidies. If he really felt this strongly he'd regard it as blood money.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    edited December 2017

    kle4 said:

    Once again the Mail reaches for "treachery" from the thesaurus. Perhaps Leavers might care to disown this latest attempt to delegitimise alternative points of view?
    Sure, though you're never satisfied when people do. I must say though that compared to mutineers and saboteurs, this one is tame by comparison. Hell, its even framed it as a question directed at them, perhaps the Mail are growing after all.
    Given all the mewling and puking I get when I make the entirely factual observation that Leavers surfed to victory on xenophobic lies, I'm continually astonished that these sensitive souls are able to stomach entirely unfounded accusations of sabotage, mutiny, treachery and the labelling of opponents as quislings. So no, I'm not satisfied.
    You must be the least self reflective person I have ever encountered. Too much may indeed be a bad thing, but you embody so much of the swivel eyed obsession and emotional hysteria you decry with so little recognition you act in exactly the same way that I would fully believe you were a parody and not a real person had I not read so many genuinely well written, intelligent commentary when you are not having a massive whingy sulk.

    Seriously, what exactly is it you want? That people cannot stomach these sorts of headlines? We cannot travel back in time and reverse our votes because of headlines like this, so what can we do but criticise it, which as you point out is not enough for you.

    So what you've just admitted is you don't want anything from anybody, you just want a great big sulk while getting up on a great big high horse, since nothing anyone can do will be enough. You truly do not see how you are exactly the kind of blinkered, emotional obsessive you criticise do you? Read what you just wrote for christ;s sake: 'Can Leavers disown this?' 'Ok' 'It's not enough!' That's practically bipolar, its absurdity, you are demanding things, then admit if people do it you'll hold the same view. Utter illogic, and shows the utter lie when you pretend you are not so emotionally affected by all this.

    Congratulations, you are better than me, I hope that will make you happy as it is clearly the only response you ever want to hear on the subject, when others, who are even more remainy, are willing to give and take on an issue. Have a wonderful day.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It is a lesson they need to learn themselves. Has Germany got a government yet
    Vorsprung durch technik. It does not need one.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Once again the Mail reaches for "treachery" from the thesaurus. Perhaps Leavers might care to disown this latest attempt to delegitimise alternative points of view?
    Sure, though you're never satisfied when people do. I must say though that compared to mutineers and saboteurs, this one is tame by comparison. Hell, its even framed it as a question directed at them, perhaps the Mail are growing after all.
    Given all the mewling and puking I get when I make the entirely factual observation that Leavers surfed to victory on xenophobic lies, I'm continually astonished that these sensitive souls are able to stomach entirely unfounded accusations of sabotage, mutiny, treachery and the labelling of opponents as quislings. So no, I'm not satisfied.
    You must be the least self reflective person I have ever encountered. Too much may indeed be a bad thing, but you embody so much of the swivel eyed obsession and emotional hysteria you decry with so little recognition you act in exactly the same way that I would fully believe you were a parody and not a real person had I not read so many genuinely well written, intelligent commentary when you are not having a massive whingy sulk.

    Seriously, what exactly is it you want? That people cannot stomach these sorts of headlines? We cannot travel back in time and reverse our votes because of headlines like this, so what can we do but criticise it, which as you point out is not enough for you.

    So what you've just admitted is you don't want anything from anybody, you just want a great big sulk while getting up on a great big high horse, since nothing anyone can do will be enough. You truly do not see how you are exactly the kind of blinkered, emotional obsessive you criticise do you?

    Congratulations, you are better than me, I hope that will make you happy. Have a wonderful day.
    I actually get the impression that Brexit has left Mr Meeks mentally unhinged. His constant repeating of his fantasies are like a rock he has to cling to to allow him to function. I do fear for his state of mind these days.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,926

    One final point: I honestly don't know why Heidi Allen bothered joining the Conservative Party.

    I can't recall a single Conservative thing she'd said, defended, or done. And that goes right back to when she was elected, well before Brexit, when she was pulling the same stunts with Cameron and Osborne.

    Was it just to piss all over it from the inside?

    She said she would leave the party if JRM was made leader of the party ;-)

    I agree,she seems to have joined the wrong party.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I still think the Gov't has the numbers to get a Brexit deal past the house; Hoey, Hopkins and Field voted to give themselves a vote here (And embarass the Gov't) .. not stop the process.

    Hoey and Field voted against the government? That will disappoint a few Leavers, who regarded them as Cigar Store Indians.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,020
    edited December 2017

    Pulpstar said:

    I still think the Gov't has the numbers to get a Brexit deal past the house; Hoey, Hopkins and Field voted to give themselves a vote here (And embarass the Gov't) .. not stop the process.

    Hoey and Field voted against the government? That will disappoint a few Leavers, who regarded them as Cigar Store Indians.
    They'd vote against a Tory QS every time too, but on an actual Brexit vote in parliament they'll pass it through.
    This was a vote for a vote..
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,642
    So the Lib Dem wing of the Conservative Party has slightly increased the chance of crashing out without a deal and handed momentum back to Corbyn.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,210

    One final point: I honestly don't know why Heidi Allen bothered joining the Conservative Party.

    I can't recall a single Conservative thing she'd said, defended, or done. And that goes right back to when she was elected, well before Brexit, when she was pulling the same stunts with Cameron and Osborne.

    Was it just to piss all over it from the inside?

    She said she would leave the party if JRM was made leader of the party ;-)

    I agree,she seems to have joined the wrong party.
    Keep in mind that everyone in Parliament - yes, even Jeremy Corbyn - votes with their party 95% of the time. There will be literally hundreds, probably thousands, of Tory motions that Heidi Allen loyally supports.

    FPTP forces pries to be broad churches - JRM to Heidi Allen, Tony Blair to John McDonnell. You can expel the ones near the edge, but it makes a smaller tent...
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,642

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Once again the Mail reaches for "treachery" from the thesaurus. Perhaps Leavers might care to disown this latest attempt to delegitimise alternative points of view?
    Sure, though you're never satisfied when people do. I must say though that compared to mutineers and saboteurs, this one is tame by comparison. Hell, its even framed it as a question directed at them, perhaps the Mail are growing after all.
    Given all the mewling and puking I get when I make the entirely factual observation that Leavers surfed to victory on xenophobic lies, I'm continually astonished that these sensitive souls are able to stomach entirely unfounded accusations of sabotage, mutiny, treachery and the labelling of opponents as quislings. So no, I'm not satisfied.
    You must be the least self reflective person I have ever encountered. Too much may indeed be a bad thing, but you embody so much of the swivel eyed obsession and emotional hysteria you decry with so little recognition you act in exactly the same way that I would fully believe you were a parody and not a real person had I not read so many genuinely well written, intelligent commentary when you are not having a massive whingy sulk.

    Seriously, what exactly is it you want? That people cannot stomach these sorts of headlines? We cannot travel back in time and reverse our votes because of headlines like this, so what can we do but criticise it, which as you point out is not enough for you.

    So what you've just admitted is you don't want anything from anybody, you just want a great big sulk while getting up on a great big high horse, since nothing anyone can do will be enough. You truly do not see how you are exactly the kind of blinkered, emotional obsessive you criticise do you?

    Congratulations, you are better than me, I hope that will make you happy. Have a wonderful day.
    I actually get the impression that Brexit has left Mr Meeks mentally unhinged. His constant repeating of his fantasies are like a rock he has to cling to to allow him to function. I do fear for his state of mind these days.
    It's sad, but he and the high-profile cases like AC Grayling are far from the only ones. I think I've recently lost a close personal friend of over 10 years over Brexit. He launched into a Twitter tirade of personal abuse against me then doubled down when challenged. A terrible shame as I try not to let politics get in the way of friendships (though as a middle-class, 25 year-old, right-wing Leave campaigner, doing so would be difficult).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,210



    To be fair the Germans were supposed to be deciding their coalition today and that was the reason for my comment. Does anyone know the present position in Germany

    Don't think so - they were deciding whether to start serious talks between CDU and SPD. The SPD remain dubious; one suggestion, which the CDU doesn't like much, is a C&S deal with certain key policies agreed, but others to be argued out in the Bundestag with perhapss different majorities for different things.

    It's not especially chaotic, but it's slow, as the SPD are as hard to persuade as the LibDems would have been after 2015. The problem, as you've said in another post, is that polls suggest that a new election would produce much the same result - Liberals slightly down, Greens and Left slightly up, nothing enough to matter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,129
    edited December 2017
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Guy Verhofstadt tweets the Commons vote is 'a good day for democracy'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389

    It would have been an equally good day for it if the vote had gone the other way. That the vote was held made it good democracy, never mind the outcome.
    I personally am not bothered either way, I cannot see Parliament voting down an agreed deal
    I expected more irritation from you at the entirely gratuitous comment from Verhofstadt though.
    Letting your standards slip ? :smile:

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,692
    Pulpstar said:

    I still think the Gov't has the numbers to get a Brexit deal past the house; Hoey, Hopkins and Field voted to give themselves a vote here (And embarass the Gov't) .. not stop the process.

    Hoey and Field voted with the Government tonight!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,210
    edited December 2017
    As I predicted earlier, the LibDems won the district council seat in Waverley (Hunt's constituency) - LD 266 Con 246 Lab 152 Green 40 (they captured a town council seat too). Last time (2-member ward) Con 1180/1024; Lab 743, "Something new" 485 UKIP 437. Turnout this time 20%.

    As the LibDems didn't stand last time, the swing will be huge, though the turnout was feeble as expected. They fought a good professional campaign with 3 leaflets and canvasssing and knockup and all parties thought they were probably going to take it - Labour's effort was more basic (a couple of leaflets) and the Tories suffer from over-exposure here - they and Ratepayer held every single seat on the council, and some people felt a change would be healthy. This is a constituency where a certain amont of discreet tactical voting goes on.
  • Can anyone think of any major strikes which happened in September 1979 ?

    I ask because the ONS has got nearly 12 million working days lost to strikes in that month (and plenty more in August and October 1979) - approximately four times the number lost in each of the months of steelworkers and miners strikes or the Winter of Discontent.

    Possibly some sort of public sector strike action ?

    If the ONS haven't made a mistake then I'm amazed that such strikes aren't in widespread public memory.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 4,982

    Can anyone think of any major strikes which happened in September 1979 ?

    I ask because the ONS has got nearly 12 million working days lost to strikes in that month (and plenty more in August and October 1979) - approximately four times the number lost in each of the months of steelworkers and miners strikes or the Winter of Discontent.

    Possibly some sort of public sector strike action ?

    If the ONS haven't made a mistake then I'm amazed that such strikes aren't in widespread public memory.

    There was the ITV strike and a British Leyland strike, BL was huge at the time.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/1999/sep/05/columnists.observerbusiness2
    https://classics.honestjohn.co.uk/news/archive/1979-09/engineers-strike/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 4,982
    Oh, while I'm here, a surgeon has gone on trial for burning his initials into the livers of patients with a medical laser.

    Most. Science. Fiction. Crime. Evah.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42344180
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810
    viewcode said:

    Oh, while I'm here, a surgeon has gone on trial for burning his initials into the livers of patients with a medical laser.

    Most. Science. Fiction. Crime. Evah.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42344180

    Hm, was any harm actually done? It's sort of like an artist signing off his work.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 4,982
    edited December 2017
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    Oh, while I'm here, a surgeon has gone on trial for burning his initials into the livers of patients with a medical laser.

    Most. Science. Fiction. Crime. Evah.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42344180

    Hm, was any harm actually done? It's sort of like an artist signing off his work.
    There is an absolutely ginormous consent issue! It's not his liver! People shouldn't be able to inscribe internal organs with coherent light willy-nilly! Etching viscera nonconsensually is weird! Honestly, if you cant have an everyday liver transplant without some liverbotherer doing a driveby luminal inscripted hepatic cauterization, what is the world coming to... :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,025
    Just to say something important happened tonight. Not necessarily to do with Brexit.
    Govt. defeat virginity was lost. Most MP's haven't experienced it.
    Neither pregnancy nor premature ejaculation occurred.
    In fact it was rather pleasurable.
    Which will make it so much easier next time.
    And it won't be Brexit or a Budget, but something else...
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,723
    If I was a remainer I think the most effective thing to do would be to join my local Conservative association.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,524
    Mail front page is wrong - in fact 12 Con MPs voted for Amendment 7.

    They are missing John Stevenson.

    Someone said Charlie Elphicke rebelled - in fact he abstained.

    Main reason the Govt lost was only 2 Lab MPs voted with the Govt - Field and Hoey - when there are approx 7 Lab MPs who generally vote with the Govt on Brexit - eg also Stringer, Skinner, Hopkins (Ind at moment).
  • England unchanged from Adelaide....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,365
    edited December 2017
    England win toss and bat...hope they remembered to pack plenty of helmets.
  • The Last Jedi was amazing. The best Star Wars film since Empire.

    It was so good you’ll want to have a cigarette afterwards every time you watch it.

    Funniest film I’ve seen in a long time.

    I promise I won’t spoil it for anyone but the highlights of it were

    i) Chewy revealing he is Rey’s father
    ii) Kylo Ren’s 22 minute long power ballad half way through
    iii) The sex scene between C3PO and BB8
    iv) That fight scene
    iv) End credits ending with Rick Astley’s ‘Never Gonna Give You Up’ blaring out was a bold choice.
  • The Last Jedi was amazing. The best Star Wars film since Empire.

    It was so good you’ll want to have a cigarette afterwards every time you watch it.

    Funniest film I’ve seen in a long time.

    I promise I won’t spoil it for anyone but the highlights of it were

    i) Chewy revealing he is Rey’s father
    ii) Kylo Ren’s 22 minute long power ballad half way through
    iii) The sex scene between C3PO and BB8
    iv) That fight scene
    iv) End credits ending with Rick Astley’s ‘Never Gonna Give You Up’ blaring out was a bold choice.

    But is it a Christmas movie like die hard ?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,524
    Liam Fox wasn't present for the big vote.

    Presumably he was paired?
  • I presume the "silent man" askes for a quick start for england.....So it would shift the odds.
  • The Last Jedi was amazing. The best Star Wars film since Empire.

    It was so good you’ll want to have a cigarette afterwards every time you watch it.

    Funniest film I’ve seen in a long time.

    I promise I won’t spoil it for anyone but the highlights of it were

    i) Chewy revealing he is Rey’s father
    ii) Kylo Ren’s 22 minute long power ballad half way through
    iii) The sex scene between C3PO and BB8
    iv) That fight scene
    iv) End credits ending with Rick Astley’s ‘Never Gonna Give You Up’ blaring out was a bold choice.

    But is it a Christmas movie like die hard ?
    It has more snow in it than Die Hard.
  • And predictably a wicket....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810

    The Last Jedi was amazing. The best Star Wars film since Empire.

    It was so good you’ll want to have a cigarette afterwards every time you watch it.

    Funniest film I’ve seen in a long time.

    I promise I won’t spoil it for anyone but the highlights of it were

    i) Chewy revealing he is Rey’s father
    ii) Kylo Ren’s 22 minute long power ballad half way through
    iii) The sex scene between C3PO and BB8
    iv) That fight scene
    iv) End credits ending with Rick Astley’s ‘Never Gonna Give You Up’ blaring out was a bold choice.

    But is it a Christmas movie like die hard ?
    It has more snow in it than Die Hard.
    Second battle of Hoth? :D
  • RobD said:

    The Last Jedi was amazing. The best Star Wars film since Empire.

    It was so good you’ll want to have a cigarette afterwards every time you watch it.

    Funniest film I’ve seen in a long time.

    I promise I won’t spoil it for anyone but the highlights of it were

    i) Chewy revealing he is Rey’s father
    ii) Kylo Ren’s 22 minute long power ballad half way through
    iii) The sex scene between C3PO and BB8
    iv) That fight scene
    iv) End credits ending with Rick Astley’s ‘Never Gonna Give You Up’ blaring out was a bold choice.

    But is it a Christmas movie like die hard ?
    It has more snow in it than Die Hard.
    Second battle of Hoth? :D
    Yup. The Second Battle of Hoth.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,639

    Once again the Mail reaches for "treachery" from the thesaurus. Perhaps Leavers might care to disown this latest attempt to delegitimise alternative points of view?
    One might as well ask us to disown the Beano. The Mail is about as meaningful and insightful as Denis the Menace at the moment.
    Where the Daily Express leads, the Mail eventually follows.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,342

    And predictably a wicket....

    Why do we keep bothering with Cook?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,129
    Sandpit said:

    And predictably a wicket....

    Why do we keep bothering with Cook?
    Faut de mieux, I guess.
    Though the way he's been playing, a desperate gamble on a replacement might not be out of order.

    Stoneman might not be the greatest batsman, but he's got serious bottle.
  • kle4 said:


    You must be the least self reflective person I have ever encountered. Too much may indeed be a bad thing, but you embody so much of the swivel eyed obsession and emotional hysteria you decry with so little recognition you act in exactly the same way that I would fully believe you were a parody and not a real person had I not read so many genuinely well written, intelligent commentary when you are not having a massive whingy sulk.

    Seriously, what exactly is it you want? That people cannot stomach these sorts of headlines? We cannot travel back in time and reverse our votes because of headlines like this, so what can we do but criticise it, which as you point out is not enough for you.

    So what you've just admitted is you don't want anything from anybody, you just want a great big sulk while getting up on a great big high horse, since nothing anyone can do will be enough. You truly do not see how you are exactly the kind of blinkered, emotional obsessive you criticise do you? Read what you just wrote for christ;s sake: 'Can Leavers disown this?' 'Ok' 'It's not enough!' That's practically bipolar, its absurdity, you are demanding things, then admit if people do it you'll hold the same view. Utter illogic, and shows the utter lie when you pretend you are not so emotionally affected by all this.

    Congratulations, you are better than me, I hope that will make you happy as it is clearly the only response you ever want to hear on the subject, when others, who are even more remainy, are willing to give and take on an issue. Have a wonderful day.

    What do I want? I want those Leave supporters who fancy themselves as moderates to start to take a stand against the vile language used by their fellow travellers that is maiming British political life. Not just when prompted but actively to call it out as toxic and destructive. But why would they break a long habit and do that?

    Xenophobic lies were passed over in silence because the referendum was seen as more important. Judges have been described as enemies of the people because they ruled that Parliament had a say in the Article 50 process: so-called moderate Leavers murmured into their cocoa. Those wanting rigour in overseeing Brexit have been called saboteurs, traitors and quislings. What do so-called moderates do? Nothing.

    You have to conclude that these so-called moderates still regard Brexit as more important than dealing with the damage done by talking of political opponents as if they were military enemies. Which is why Brexit is going to continue to damage Britain indefinitely. The so-called moderates prefer to stick with the extremists than fight to re-establish political norms that allow the country to function with a level of cohesion. So the only way in which they're moderates is that they let others do their dirty work.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,725
    Sandpit said:

    And predictably a wicket....

    Why do we keep bothering with Cook?
    At 33 (almost) it’s early for Cook’s eye reflexes to be going, but it certainly looks as though something’s happening. Did OK for Essex last year, average 68, with 193 against Middlesex.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,269

    kle4 said:


    You must be the least self reflective person I have ever encountered. Too much may indeed be a bad thing, but you embody so much of the swivel eyed obsession and emotional hysteria you decry with so little recognition you act in w. Utter illogic, and shows the utter lie when you pretend you are not so emotionally affected by all this.

    Congratulations, you are better than me, I hope that will make you happy as it is clearly the only response you ever want to hear on the subject, when others, who are even more remainy, are willing to give and take on an issue. Have a wonderful day.

    What do I want? I want those Leave supporters who fancy themselves as moderates to start to take a stand against the vile language used by their fellow travellers that is maiming British political life. Not just when prompted but actively to call it out as toxic and destructive. But why would they break a long habit and do that?

    Xenophobic lies were passed over in silence because the referendum was seen as more important. Judges have been described as enemies of the people because they ruled that Parliament had a say in the Article 50 process: so-called moderate Leavers murmured into their cocoa. Those wanting rigour in overseeing Brexit have been called saboteurs, traitors and quislings. What do so-called moderates do? Nothing.

    You have to conclude that these so-called moderates still regard Brexit as more important than dealing with the damage done by talking of political opponents as if they were military enemies. Which is why Brexit is going to continue to damage Britain indefinitely. The so-called moderates prefer to stick with the extremists than fight to re-establish political norms that allow the country to function with a level of cohesion. So the only way in which they're moderates is that they let others do their dirty work.
    why on earth would they do that ?

    you spend so much time issuing ranty troll bait no-ones going to respond in the way you wish

    you;re like the DUP with a megaphone

    tell the other half to buy you a bowler hat for Christmas
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,725
    I have to say that I dislike an attitude which categorises my views as treasonous, just because I have a different view of what sort of country I want for my children and grandchildren. A view, moreover, which is, more or less, held by, demonstrably, almost 50% of the population last time the question was directly asked.

    The Daily Heil is becoming almost a parody of itself!
  • kle4 said:


    You must be the least self reflective person I have ever encountered. Too much may indeed be a bad thing, but you embody so much of the swivel eyed obsession and emotional hysteria you decry with so little recognition you act in w. Utter illogic, and shows the utter lie when you pretend you are not so emotionally affected by all this.

    Congratulations, you are better than me, I hope that will make you happy as it is clearly the only response you ever want to hear on the subject, when others, who are even more remainy, are willing to give and take on an issue. Have a wonderful day.

    What do I want? I want those Leave supporters who fancy themselves as moderates to start to take a stand against the vile language used by their fellow travellers that is maiming British political life. Not just when prompted but actively to call it out as toxic and destructive. But why would they break a long habit and do that?

    Xenophobic lies were passed over in silence because the referendum was seen as more important. Judges have been described as enemies of the people because they ruled that Parliament had a say in the Article 50 process: so-called moderate Leavers murmured into their cocoa. Those wanting rigour in overseeing Brexit have been called saboteurs, traitors and quislings. What do so-called moderates do? Nothing.

    You have to conclude that these so-called moderates still regard Brexit as more important than dealing with the damage done by talking of political opponents as if they were military enemies. Which is why Brexit is going to continue to damage Britain indefinitely. The so-called moderates prefer to stick with the extremists than fight to re-establish political norms that allow the country to function with a level of cohesion. So the only way in which they're moderates is that they let others do their dirty work.
    why on earth would they do that ?

    you spend so much time issuing ranty troll bait no-ones going to respond in the way you wish

    you;re like the DUP with a megaphone

    tell the other half to buy you a bowler hat for Christmas
    No reply to Alastair's issue's, just personal insults.
    So, no change there.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,725
    Can we have an AV thread to get people going again!
  • Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    And predictably a wicket....

    Why do we keep bothering with Cook?
    Faut de mieux, I guess.
    Though the way he's been playing, a desperate gamble on a replacement might not be out of order.

    Stoneman might not be the greatest batsman, but he's got serious bottle.
    Funnily enough, Cook's opening partner at Essex, Nick Browne would make a good replacement. He's a similar player to Stoneman and might easily have got the nod instead of him - or as well as him if the selectors hadn't wasted the opportunities against South Africa on the out of form Jennings.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,725

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    And predictably a wicket....

    Why do we keep bothering with Cook?
    Faut de mieux, I guess.
    Though the way he's been playing, a desperate gamble on a replacement might not be out of order.

    Stoneman might not be the greatest batsman, but he's got serious bottle.
    Funnily enough, Cook's opening partner at Essex, Nick Browne would make a good replacement. He's a similar player to Stoneman and might easily have got the nod instead of him - or as well as him if the selectors hadn't wasted the opportunities against South Africa on the out of form Jennings.
    Ah, but Essex is out of favour with Lords.
  • May’s courting of the Daily Mail and its vicious headlines probably cost the Tories a substantial number of votes.

    More generally, last night’s vote is only a problem for the government if you believe it is dishonest.
  • Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    And predictably a wicket....

    Why do we keep bothering with Cook?
    Faut de mieux, I guess.
    Though the way he's been playing, a desperate gamble on a replacement might not be out of order.

    Stoneman might not be the greatest batsman, but he's got serious bottle.
    Funnily enough, Cook's opening partner at Essex, Nick Browne would make a good replacement. He's a similar player to Stoneman and might easily have got the nod instead of him - or as well as him if the selectors hadn't wasted the opportunities against South Africa on the out of form Jennings.
    Ah, but Essex is out of favour with Lords.
    Not just Essex. The procedure for generations has been that whenever a vacancy occurs, check the Middlesex playing squad for eligible replacements and only if there is nobody suitable do you start looking around the other counties.

    Toby Roland-Jones and Dawid Malan are decent enough cricketers, but if they played for any other county they would still be waiting for their first caps.
This discussion has been closed.