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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A LD gain from CON and a LAB hold in this week’s local by-elec

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A LD gain from CON and a LAB hold in this week’s local by-election

Newton and St. Leonard’s on Exeter (Lab defence) Result: Con 512 (27% +4% on last time), Lab 1,044 (55% +5% on last time), Lib Dem 179 (9% +2% on last time), UKIP 40 (2% -3% on last time), Green 137 (7% -5% on last time) (No Independence from Europe candidate this time -3%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 532 (28%) on a swing of 0.5% from Con to Lab

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810
    First!
  • The old "have a candidate" trick
  • FPT
    Scott_P said:

    It's pretty obvious the real reason TSE and Alastair Meeks are siding with the traitorous rebel scum

    @Barristerblog: Those Tory rebels in full:
    Grieve: barrister
    Clarke: barrister
    Soubry: barrister
    Neill: barrister
    Heald: barrister
    Sandbach: barrister
    Djanogly: solicitor
    Morgan: solicitor
    Hammond: banker
    Wollaston: doctor
    Allen: businesswoman

    Come the revolution, FIRST on the list for inclusion in the agenda for debate by the subcommittee deciding which names should be put forward to the vote for going UP AGAINST THE WALL!!!

    I’m the lowest of the low. Not only do I have a legal background but I work for a bank that sometimes gets inaccurately labelled a Hedge Fund.
  • BromBrom Posts: 937

    FPT

    Scott_P said:

    It's pretty obvious the real reason TSE and Alastair Meeks are siding with the traitorous rebel scum

    @Barristerblog: Those Tory rebels in full:
    Grieve: barrister
    Clarke: barrister
    Soubry: barrister
    Neill: barrister
    Heald: barrister
    Sandbach: barrister
    Djanogly: solicitor
    Morgan: solicitor
    Hammond: banker
    Wollaston: doctor
    Allen: businesswoman

    Come the revolution, FIRST on the list for inclusion in the agenda for debate by the subcommittee deciding which names should be put forward to the vote for going UP AGAINST THE WALL!!!

    I’m the lowest of the low. Not only do I have a legal background but I work for a bank that sometimes gets inaccurately labelled a Hedge Fund.
    I refuse to believe someone who spends 24/7 on PB has a job!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,463

    FPT

    Scott_P said:

    It's pretty obvious the real reason TSE and Alastair Meeks are siding with the traitorous rebel scum

    @Barristerblog: Those Tory rebels in full:
    Grieve: barrister
    Clarke: barrister
    Soubry: barrister
    Neill: barrister
    Heald: barrister
    Sandbach: barrister
    Djanogly: solicitor
    Morgan: solicitor
    Hammond: banker
    Wollaston: doctor
    Allen: businesswoman

    Come the revolution, FIRST on the list for inclusion in the agenda for debate by the subcommittee deciding which names should be put forward to the vote for going UP AGAINST THE WALL!!!

    I’m the lowest of the low. Not only do I have a legal background but I work for a bank that sometimes gets inaccurately labelled a Hedge Fund.
    And at other times a VS??!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,769

    FPT

    Scott_P said:

    It's pretty obvious the real reason TSE and Alastair Meeks are siding with the traitorous rebel scum

    @Barristerblog: Those Tory rebels in full:
    Grieve: barrister
    Clarke: barrister
    Soubry: barrister
    Neill: barrister
    Heald: barrister
    Sandbach: barrister
    Djanogly: solicitor
    Morgan: solicitor
    Hammond: banker
    Wollaston: doctor
    Allen: businesswoman

    Come the revolution, FIRST on the list for inclusion in the agenda for debate by the subcommittee deciding which names should be put forward to the vote for going UP AGAINST THE WALL!!!

    I’m the lowest of the low. Not only do I have a legal background but I work for a bank that sometimes gets inaccurately labelled a Hedge Fund.
    The professional classes clearly can't be trusted with matters of state:
  • Brom said:

    FPT

    Scott_P said:

    It's pretty obvious the real reason TSE and Alastair Meeks are siding with the traitorous rebel scum

    @Barristerblog: Those Tory rebels in full:
    Grieve: barrister
    Clarke: barrister
    Soubry: barrister
    Neill: barrister
    Heald: barrister
    Sandbach: barrister
    Djanogly: solicitor
    Morgan: solicitor
    Hammond: banker
    Wollaston: doctor
    Allen: businesswoman

    Come the revolution, FIRST on the list for inclusion in the agenda for debate by the subcommittee deciding which names should be put forward to the vote for going UP AGAINST THE WALL!!!

    I’m the lowest of the low. Not only do I have a legal background but I work for a bank that sometimes gets inaccurately labelled a Hedge Fund.
    I refuse to believe someone who spends 24/7 on PB has a job!
    I can multitask and I can ruthlessly delegate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624

    FPT

    Scott_P said:

    It's pretty obvious the real reason TSE and Alastair Meeks are siding with the traitorous rebel scum

    @Barristerblog: Those Tory rebels in full:
    Grieve: barrister
    Clarke: barrister
    Soubry: barrister
    Neill: barrister
    Heald: barrister
    Sandbach: barrister
    Djanogly: solicitor
    Morgan: solicitor
    Hammond: banker
    Wollaston: doctor
    Allen: businesswoman

    Come the revolution, FIRST on the list for inclusion in the agenda for debate by the subcommittee deciding which names should be put forward to the vote for going UP AGAINST THE WALL!!!

    I’m the lowest of the low. Not only do I have a legal background but I work for a bank that sometimes gets inaccurately labelled a Hedge Fund.
    The professional classes clearly can't be trusted with matters of state:
    Jonathan Djanogoly's father is worth £300 million certainly, Grieve went to Westminster and his father was a Tory MP
  • FPT

    Scott_P said:

    It's pretty obvious the real reason TSE and Alastair Meeks are siding with the traitorous rebel scum

    @Barristerblog: Those Tory rebels in full:
    Grieve: barrister
    Clarke: barrister
    Soubry: barrister
    Neill: barrister
    Heald: barrister
    Sandbach: barrister
    Djanogly: solicitor
    Morgan: solicitor
    Hammond: banker
    Wollaston: doctor
    Allen: businesswoman

    Come the revolution, FIRST on the list for inclusion in the agenda for debate by the subcommittee deciding which names should be put forward to the vote for going UP AGAINST THE WALL!!!

    I’m the lowest of the low. Not only do I have a legal background but I work for a bank that sometimes gets inaccurately labelled a Hedge Fund.
    The professional classes clearly can't be trusted with matters of state:
    Yes, let us leave it to the likes of Bernard Jenkin.
  • TOPPING said:

    FPT

    Scott_P said:

    It's pretty obvious the real reason TSE and Alastair Meeks are siding with the traitorous rebel scum

    @Barristerblog: Those Tory rebels in full:
    Grieve: barrister
    Clarke: barrister
    Soubry: barrister
    Neill: barrister
    Heald: barrister
    Sandbach: barrister
    Djanogly: solicitor
    Morgan: solicitor
    Hammond: banker
    Wollaston: doctor
    Allen: businesswoman

    Come the revolution, FIRST on the list for inclusion in the agenda for debate by the subcommittee deciding which names should be put forward to the vote for going UP AGAINST THE WALL!!!

    I’m the lowest of the low. Not only do I have a legal background but I work for a bank that sometimes gets inaccurately labelled a Hedge Fund.
    And at other times a VS??!
    I’d put pay day lenders and venture capitalists at the bottom of that hierarchy.
  • On topic, it’s not Friday is it?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,269

    FPT

    Scott_P said:

    It's pretty obvious the real reason TSE and Alastair Meeks are siding with the traitorous rebel scum

    @Barristerblog: Those Tory rebels in full:
    Grieve: barrister
    Clarke: barrister
    Soubry: barrister
    Neill: barrister
    Heald: barrister
    Sandbach: barrister
    Djanogly: solicitor
    Morgan: solicitor
    Hammond: banker
    Wollaston: doctor
    Allen: businesswoman

    Come the revolution, FIRST on the list for inclusion in the agenda for debate by the subcommittee deciding which names should be put forward to the vote for going UP AGAINST THE WALL!!!

    I’m the lowest of the low. Not only do I have a legal background but I work for a bank that sometimes gets inaccurately labelled a Hedge Fund.
    The professional classes clearly can't be trusted with matters of state:
    chortle

    we agree Mr Eagles - no wage growth, balance of payments, lost referendum, peasants revolting

    why do we pay them ?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 900

    Brom said:

    FPT

    Scott_P said:

    It's pretty obvious the real reason TSE and Alastair Meeks are siding with the traitorous rebel scum

    @Barristerblog: Those Tory rebels in full:
    Grieve: barrister
    Clarke: barrister
    Soubry: barrister
    Neill: barrister
    Heald: barrister
    Sandbach: barrister
    Djanogly: solicitor
    Morgan: solicitor
    Hammond: banker
    Wollaston: doctor
    Allen: businesswoman

    Come the revolution, FIRST on the list for inclusion in the agenda for debate by the subcommittee deciding which names should be put forward to the vote for going UP AGAINST THE WALL!!!

    I’m the lowest of the low. Not only do I have a legal background but I work for a bank that sometimes gets inaccurately labelled a Hedge Fund.
    I refuse to believe someone who spends 24/7 on PB has a job!
    I can multitask and I can ruthlessly delegate.
    I find this place a bit like the pub. You say you're just going to stop in for a quick one, then four hours later...

    On days I actually have work to do I find it's best to not go into either at all... ;)
  • Scottish budget underway if anyones interested. See if they put up taxes at all.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 252

    Brom said:

    FPT

    Scott_P said:

    It's pretty obvious the real reason TSE and Alastair Meeks are siding with the traitorous rebel scum

    @Barristerblog: Those Tory rebels in full:
    Grieve: barrister
    Clarke: barrister
    Soubry: barrister
    Neill: barrister
    Heald: barrister
    Sandbach: barrister
    Djanogly: solicitor
    Morgan: solicitor
    Hammond: banker
    Wollaston: doctor
    Allen: businesswoman

    Come the revolution, FIRST on the list for inclusion in the agenda for debate by the subcommittee deciding which names should be put forward to the vote for going UP AGAINST THE WALL!!!

    I’m the lowest of the low. Not only do I have a legal background but I work for a bank that sometimes gets inaccurately labelled a Hedge Fund.
    I refuse to believe someone who spends 24/7 on PB has a job!
    I can multitask and I can ruthlessly delegate.
    Might explain why I never get much salad in my Big Mac.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 130
    FPT
    kyf_100 said:



    If the latter, then there is a justifiable case for calling people actively engaging in such behaviour traitors. That is one point of view - that they are actively attempting to subvert democracy.

    I'm not going to go that far myself - I like to think that they believe they are acting in the best interests of our country and our democracy, even if I vehemently disagree with them. I prefer the term "useful idiot". But YMMV.

    However there is a legitimate case for using the word "traitor" to describe someone who is attempting to actively subvert democracy, in pursuit of the aims of a hostile foreign power, whether they believe they're doing it in the UK's best interests or not. Whether or not you believe that depends on what you think the intentions of the people doing the deed are.

    I'm holding off on the use of the word for now. But I understand why others have not.

    I agree with that - I think the keywords are "hostile" and "subvert" and also what "democracy" means as to whether we are anywhere near that.

    So far, I have seen nothing from either side that looks like a subversion of democracy - just people (and in particular MPs) using their democratic rights as enshrined in UK law. Whether one considers a particular aspect of this "a loophole" or not is up to Parliament and/or the Courts to determine, as I understand it!

    There is a notable exception to that, though - and that is where people are deliberately obfuscating on the one hand, through to systematic lying on the other.

    This is what I consider to be the biggest threat to our democracy; and press, politicians, and twitterati are all (in my view, and to a greater or lesser extent) guilty of this - particularly on this subject.

    If I had to point the finger of accusation at "traitors [to British democracy]" that is where I would be poking around.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 130

    On topic, it’s not Friday is it?

    I keep erroneously thinking that it is, and this thread header has not helped me in the slightest.
  • Prepare the bandwagon! Winning here! Fallon heading for Downing St!
  • kyf_100 said:

    I find this place a bit like the pub. You say you're just going to stop in for a quick one, then four hours later...

    Yeah, pity the beer's not better.
  • We should remember this the next Ireland asks us for a loan, ask your 27 better friends.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810

    Prepare the bandwagon! Winning here! Fallon heading for Downing St!

    .....preparation for government intensifies....
  • We should remember this the next Ireland asks us for a loan, ask your 27 better friends.

    He's not good at counting, is he?
  • How do we know these results on a Thursday? Surely the polls haven't shut yet?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 900
    mwadams said:

    FPT

    I agree with that - I think the keywords are "hostile" and "subvert" and also what "democracy" means as to whether we are anywhere near that.

    So far, I have seen nothing from either side that looks like a subversion of democracy - just people (and in particular MPs) using their democratic rights as enshrined in UK law. Whether one considers a particular aspect of this "a loophole" or not is up to Parliament and/or the Courts to determine, as I understand it!

    There is a notable exception to that, though - and that is where people are deliberately obfuscating on the one hand, through to systematic lying on the other.

    This is what I consider to be the biggest threat to our democracy; and press, politicians, and twitterati are all (in my view, and to a greater or lesser extent) guilty of this - particularly on this subject.

    If I had to point the finger of accusation at "traitors [to British democracy]" that is where I would be poking around.

    'scuse the Scott'n'paste, but re: my previous post about spending too long here I do actually have a meeting I'm about to duck out for and wanted to give you a reply. Was reading this on Spiked a little earlier and it neatly encapsulates my point of view:

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/taking-back-control-from-the-plebs/

    "When Leavers said ‘take back control’, they meant taking back democratic control from a distant, unaccountable oligarchy. When they, elite Remainers, say ‘take back control’, they mean the political establishment taking back control from the pesky people...

    The EU and its apologists are only cheering parliamentary democracy now to the extent that it might be wielded to undermine popular democracy; because they think it can be used to slow or scupper that decision made by the largest group of people in British democratic history.

    This is the level of cynicism they have reached: they increasingly see parliament, not as a true tribune of the people, but as a possible counter to the people, the sensible, cool restraint on the masses’ dangerous anti-EU passions. They are setting up parliament against the public, which is a very sinister thing to do."


    Couldn't put it better myself - to me, last night looks like a subversion of democracy, not a healthy expression of it.



  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810

    How do we know these results on a Thursday? Surely the polls haven't shut yet?

    Some strange places have their by elections on days other than Thursday.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,248
    kyf_100 said:

    Couldn't put it better myself - to me, last night looks like a subversion of democracy, not a healthy expression of it.

    To quote a prominent Leaver of this parish "Fuck off, Please, just fuck off"

    Either you believe in Parliamentary democracy, the representatives voting their conscience in the best interests of their constituents, or you don't

    This "only when I agree with them" crap is another poisonous residue of the campaign of bullshit.

    "We have had enough of experts" and "MPs voting the way we don't like"

    You won. This is what parliamentary Sovereignty looks like. Suck it up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,248
    If only England's bowlers could muster this much spin...

    @JamesTapsfield: PM says government has won 35 out of 36 votes on the EU Withdrawal Bill. (Pro tip: This is not as good as it sounds)
  • RobD said:

    How do we know these results on a Thursday? Surely the polls haven't shut yet?

    Some strange places have their by elections on days other than Thursday.
    I bet the people that arranged by elections on a Wednesday like pineapple on pizza too.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 1,939
    Scotland introduces a 21p tax band
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810

    RobD said:

    How do we know these results on a Thursday? Surely the polls haven't shut yet?

    Some strange places have their by elections on days other than Thursday.
    I bet the people that arranged by elections on a Wednesday like pineapple on pizza too.
    Now I want a pineapple pizza....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,248
    RobD said:

    Now I want a pineapple pizza....

    You can eat it while watching SPECTRE
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 130
    kyf_100 said:


    'scuse the Scott'n'paste, but re: my previous post about spending too long here I do actually have a meeting I'm about to duck out for and wanted to give you a reply. Was reading this on Spiked a little earlier and it neatly encapsulates my point of view:

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/taking-back-control-from-the-plebs/

    "When Leavers said ‘take back control’, they meant taking back democratic control from a distant, unaccountable oligarchy. When they, elite Remainers, say ‘take back control’, they mean the political establishment taking back control from the pesky people...

    The EU and its apologists are only cheering parliamentary democracy now to the extent that it might be wielded to undermine popular democracy; because they think it can be used to slow or scupper that decision made by the largest group of people in British democratic history.

    This is the level of cynicism they have reached: they increasingly see parliament, not as a true tribune of the people, but as a possible counter to the people, the sensible, cool restraint on the masses’ dangerous anti-EU passions. They are setting up parliament against the public, which is a very sinister thing to do."


    Couldn't put it better myself - to me, last night looks like a subversion of democracy, not a healthy expression of it.



    No excuses needed!

    However, I would say that those Tory "rebels" who represent Remain-voting constituencies, are, in fact, reflecting the views of their electorate. And many of those Tory MPs who voted with the government also represent Remain constituencies, and they should be seen as the anti-democratic element, if we are to pursue this line of argument [With the reverse in play on the Opposition benches]

    The referendum, of course, merely representing a snapshot of public opinion at a moment in time, just like the 1974 one, that doesn't bind the parliament of the day (*stirs the pot vigorously*)

    I do agree with you wholeheartedly about the cynicism this engenders.
  • Scotland's just introduced a 5 band tax system.... F**King hell I'm glad i'm not an accountant north o the border.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810
    Scott_P said:

    If only England's bowlers could muster this much spin...

    @JamesTapsfield: PM says government has won 35 out of 36 votes on the EU Withdrawal Bill. (Pro tip: This is not as good as it sounds)

    If it stays as only one loss it wouldn't be all that bad.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,248
    @BBCNormanS: Brexit is unstoppable - @BorisJohnson

    @BBCNormanS: Parliament will not vote to frustrate the will of the people - @BorisJohnson
  • Scott_P said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Couldn't put it better myself - to me, last night looks like a subversion of democracy, not a healthy expression of it.

    To quote a prominent Leaver of this parish "Fuck off, Please, just fuck off"

    Either you believe in Parliamentary democracy, the representatives voting their conscience in the best interests of their constituents, or you don't

    This "only when I agree with them" crap is another poisonous residue of the campaign of bullshit.

    "We have had enough of experts" and "MPs voting the way we don't like"

    You won. This is what parliamentary Sovereignty looks like. Suck it up.

    If leaving the EU is really so damaging that parliament can't in all conscience vote to do so (despite constant assurances the referendum result would be carried out), maybe parliament shouldn't have chosen to hold such a referendum, and shouldn't have designed it as they did.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,769
    She's even quoting her average majority...
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 900
    mwadams said:

    kyf_100 said:


    'scuse the Scott'n'paste, but re: my previous post about spending too long here I do actually have a meeting I'm about to duck out for and wanted to give you a reply. Was reading this on Spiked a little earlier and it neatly encapsulates my point of view:

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/taking-back-control-from-the-plebs/

    "When Leavers said ‘take back control’, they meant taking back democratic control from a distant, unaccountable oligarchy. When they, elite Remainers, say ‘take back control’, they mean the political establishment taking back control from the pesky people...

    The EU and its apologists are only cheering parliamentary democracy now to the extent that it might be wielded to undermine popular democracy; because they think it can be used to slow or scupper that decision made by the largest group of people in British democratic history.

    This is the level of cynicism they have reached: they increasingly see parliament, not as a true tribune of the people, but as a possible counter to the people, the sensible, cool restraint on the masses’ dangerous anti-EU passions. They are setting up parliament against the public, which is a very sinister thing to do."


    Couldn't put it better myself - to me, last night looks like a subversion of democracy, not a healthy expression of it.

    No excuses needed!

    However, I would say that those Tory "rebels" who represent Remain-voting constituencies, are, in fact, reflecting the views of their electorate. And many of those Tory MPs who voted with the government also represent Remain constituencies, and they should be seen as the anti-democratic element, if we are to pursue this line of argument [With the reverse in play on the Opposition benches]

    The referendum, of course, merely representing a snapshot of public opinion at a moment in time, just like the 1974 one, that doesn't bind the parliament of the day (*stirs the pot vigorously*)

    I do agree with you wholeheartedly about the cynicism this engenders.
    Agreed you have a point there. MPs have a duty to their consciences and their constituents, and that is a factor.

    The trouble for me is what this turns into if MPs are seen to be overturning a decision that over 17 million people voted for. Yes, we have a representative democracy, but when the people are consulted via a direct vote, I believe our MPs are, de facto, turned into delegates when it comes to that decision. Advisory or not, to overrule a direct democratic decision would be a disaster for people's faith in the ballot box.

    On that note, must dash.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 357
    For 45% of taxpayers, and becomes more progressive.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,214
    Blue_rog said:

    Scotland introduces a 21p tax band

    This is good news for the, mainly middle-class, Scottish Tory seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810
    felix said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Scotland introduces a 21p tax band

    This is good news for the, mainly middle-class, Scottish Tory seats.
    KLAXON on standby :)
  • We should remember this the next Ireland asks us for a loan, ask your 27 better friends.

    Which are these other 27 member states that presumably don't include Ireland itself or Britain?
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,214
    RobD said:

    felix said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Scotland introduces a 21p tax band

    This is good news for the, mainly middle-class, Scottish Tory seats.
    KLAXON on standby :)
    Maybe a small playground whistle will suffice.
  • We should remember this the next Ireland asks us for a loan, ask your 27 better friends.

    Which are these other 27 member states that presumably don't include Ireland itself or Britain?
    Turkey ?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,228
    Scott_P said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Couldn't put it better myself - to me, last night looks like a subversion of democracy, not a healthy expression of it.

    To quote a prominent Leaver of this parish "Fuck off, Please, just fuck off"

    Either you believe in Parliamentary democracy, the representatives voting their conscience in the best interests of their constituents, or you don't

    This "only when I agree with them" crap is another poisonous residue of the campaign of bullshit.

    "We have had enough of experts" and "MPs voting the way we don't like"

    You won. This is what parliamentary Sovereignty looks like. Suck it up.
    If you want to look stupid and dishonest, keep saying "We have had enough of experts" as if it was what Gove said. Otherwise, stop.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,214

    We should remember this the next Ireland asks us for a loan, ask your 27 better friends.

    Which are these other 27 member states that presumably don't include Ireland itself or Britain?
    After 3pm the Irish get a bit fuzzy with figures - nowadays known as abottitis.
  • Sky just did a report from an Eyemouth Fish processor where two employees were interviewed. One lives in Eyemouth, the other in Berwick so one pays more tax than the other for doing the same job. The Eyemouth employee distinctly unimpressed.

    Creates good space for Ruth Davidson to strengthen support for the Scons
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,214

    We should remember this the next Ireland asks us for a loan, ask your 27 better friends.

    Which are these other 27 member states that presumably don't include Ireland itself or Britain?
    Turkey ?
    Catalonia?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810
    felix said:

    RobD said:

    felix said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Scotland introduces a 21p tax band

    This is good news for the, mainly middle-class, Scottish Tory seats.
    KLAXON on standby :)
    Maybe a small playground whistle will suffice.
    Okay :(
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,444
    I should imagine medium to large houses on the English side of Berwick will be popular with estate agents as middle to high earners flee Nat tax bombshell - a ratchet that will no doubt tighten year on year.

    The stamp duty is cheaper in England too for medium sized houses so a double whammy.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,302
    edited December 2017

    /twitter.com/asabenn/status/941325975970897920

    /twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/941036751266762752

    Ken Clarke just described this NadineDorries message as a "Donald Trump-like tweet"


    He thinks Dorries is heading for the top job?

  • TGOHF said:

    I should imagine medium to large houses on the English side of Berwick will be popular with estate agents as middle to high earners flee Nat tax bombshell - a ratchet that will no doubt tighten year on year.

    The stamp duty is cheaper in England too for medium sized houses so a double whammy.

    I lived my school days in Berwick before moving to Edinburgh when I started in employment.

    Berwick is a wonderful Town and place to raise children. Berwick and Northumberland are England's hidden gem
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    Ouch. That's another £1500 on my tax bill. I fear it may be worse if they repeat their trick of not indexing the bands as well. Who'd want to make money in Scotland if they could anywhere else?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,648
    edited December 2017
    kyf_100 said:

    mwadams said:

    kyf_100 said:


    'scuse the Scott'n'paste, but re: my previous post about spending too

    "When Leavers said ‘take back control’, they meant taking back democratic control from a distant, unaccountable oligarchy. When they, elite Remainers, say ‘take back control’, they mean the political establishment taking back control from the pesky people...

    The EU and its apologists are only cheering parliamentary democracy now to the extent that it might be wielded to undermine popular democracy; because they think it can be used to slow or scupper that decision made by the largest group of people in British democratic history.

    This is the level of cynicism they have reached: they increasingly see parliament, not as a true tribune of the people, but as a possible counter to the people, the sensible, cool restraint on the masses’ dangerous anti-EU passions. They are setting up parliament against the public, which is a very sinister thing to do."


    Couldn't put it better myself - to me, last night looks like a subversion of democracy, not a healthy expression of it.

    No excuses needed!

    However, I would say that those Tory "rebels" who represent Remain-voting constituencies, are, in fact, reflecting the views of their electorate. And many of those Tory MPs who voted with the government also represent Remain constituencies, and they should be seen as the anti-democratic element, if we are to pursue this line of argument [With the reverse in play on the Opposition benches]

    The referendum, of course, merely representing a snapshot of public opinion at a moment in time, just like the 1974 one, that doesn't bind the parliament of the day (*stirs the pot vigorously*)

    I do agree with you wholeheartedly about the cynicism this engenders.
    Agreed you have a point there. MPs have a duty to their consciences and their constituents, and that is a factor.

    The trouble for me is what this turns into if MPs are seen to be overturning a decision that over 17 million people voted for. Yes, we have a representative democracy, but when the people are consulted via a direct vote, I believe our MPs are, de facto, turned into delegates when it comes to that decision. Advisory or not, to overrule a direct democratic decision would be a disaster for people's faith in the ballot box.

    On that note, must dash.
    I agree with that. If MPs refer a decision to the electorate at large then they're morally - if not legally - obliged to respect and implement the result.

    However, let's be clear: last night's vote was not a Trojan Horse for Remain. However parliament votes on the final deal, Britain will leave.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    You know maybe its an entire coincidence but is it just possible that the desperately low rates of growth that Scotland is going to achieve in the next few years, well below those of the UK, and the apparent determination to drive higher rate taxpayers (sometimes, in a partisan way, called "the wealth producers") south of the border are connected?

    Did they really learn nothing from the SDLT fiasco? Apparently not.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,302
    DavidL said:

    You know maybe its an entire coincidence but is it just possible that the desperately low rates of growth that Scotland is going to achieve in the next few years, well below those of the UK, and the apparent determination to drive higher rate taxpayers (sometimes, in a partisan way, called "the wealth producers") south of the border are connected?

    Did they really learn nothing from the SDLT fiasco? Apparently not.


    SNP - Socialism's Next Paradise.

  • sarissasarissa Posts: 357

    Sky just did a report from an Eyemouth Fish processor where two employees were interviewed. One lives in Eyemouth, the other in Berwick so one pays more tax than the other for doing the same job. The Eyemouth employee distinctly unimpressed.

    Creates good space for Ruth Davidson to strengthen support for the Scons

    Anyone earning under £33,000 in Scotland will be paying less tax than previously - and public services will be better maintained. Obviously this was not pointed out.

    SLAB's (prepared?) response - raise tax even more!
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,214
    DavidL said:

    Ouch. That's another £1500 on my tax bill. I fear it may be worse if they repeat their trick of not indexing the bands as well. Who'd want to make money in Scotland if they could anywhere else?
    Sounds like they want to attract a lot of low wage low skill immigrants. WNTL? :)
  • I'm sceptical that a penny either way on the rate of Scottish tax is going to make all that much difference to behaviours.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,214

    I'm sceptical that a penny either way on the rate of Scottish tax is going to make all that much difference to behaviours.

    Could well make a difference on the borders. And, as ever, the better off will be able to circumvent it one way or another.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,214
    sarissa said:

    Sky just did a report from an Eyemouth Fish processor where two employees were interviewed. One lives in Eyemouth, the other in Berwick so one pays more tax than the other for doing the same job. The Eyemouth employee distinctly unimpressed.

    Creates good space for Ruth Davidson to strengthen support for the Scons

    Anyone earning under £33,000 in Scotland will be paying less tax than previously - and public services will be better maintained. Obviously this was not pointed out.

    SLAB's (prepared?) response - raise tax even more!
    This assumes the overall tax take will rise - never a given when rates go up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,639
    TGOHF said:

    I should imagine medium to large houses on the English side of Berwick will be popular with estate agents as middle to high earners flee Nat tax bombshell - a ratchet that will no doubt tighten year on year.

    The stamp duty is cheaper in England too for medium sized houses so a double whammy.

    Nevertheless the transaction costs of moving house, particularly at the upper end of the market, would take years to recouo, particularly if the difference in income tax is offset by other costs such as a longer commute.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 357
    TGOHF said:
    The average Teacher salary in Scotland is £30,439 according to employment agency Adzuna - obviously the £35 k figure was chosen to fall on the side of those incurring (marginal) increase
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400

    I'm sceptical that a penny either way on the rate of Scottish tax is going to make all that much difference to behaviours.

    If it was a one off I would agree but we already pay HRT from a lower base and there is a clear determination to make our system (a) different from England and (b) more aggressively "progressive" penalising the top earners. Housing costs are an important set off between, say, Edinburgh and London, but there are a lot of top Scottish taxpayers who commute to London already for much of the week. Moving south of the border may become more attractive if this persists. It won't take many to make this nonsense counter productive.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    I should imagine medium to large houses on the English side of Berwick will be popular with estate agents as middle to high earners flee Nat tax bombshell - a ratchet that will no doubt tighten year on year.

    The stamp duty is cheaper in England too for medium sized houses so a double whammy.

    Nevertheless the transaction costs of moving house, particularly at the upper end of the market, would take years to recouo, particularly if the difference in income tax is offset by other costs such as a longer commute.
    There's also the point that money is not the main driver for everyone.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,214
    sarissa said:

    TGOHF said:
    The average Teacher salary in Scotland is £30,439 according to employment agency Adzuna - obviously the £35 k figure was chosen to fall on the side of those incurring (marginal) increase
    I take it you don;t get the idea of aspiration.
  • Good afternoon, comrades.

    Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 679

    Sky just did a report from an Eyemouth Fish processor where two employees were interviewed. One lives in Eyemouth, the other in Berwick so one pays more tax than the other for doing the same job. The Eyemouth employee distinctly unimpressed.

    Creates good space for Ruth Davidson to strengthen support for the Scons

    Sky just did a report from an Eyemouth Fish processor where two employees were interviewed. One lives in Eyemouth, the other in Berwick so one pays more tax than the other for doing the same job. The Eyemouth employee distinctly unimpressed.

    Why? As I live in New York I pay more income tax than do my co-workers who live in New Jersey, but as I live outside New York City I pay less income tax than do my co-workers who live in the city. It’s all part and parcel of different areas having different tax rates.

    If it really was a big deal I’d move (although I don’t know how far into negative territory would their tax rate have to go to entice me to live in New Jersey).
  • I like how Sovereignty has been the word of the day, but when an elected body adds 1p to the rate we're back in the real world where self-interest cuts across sovereignty, makes sovereign decisions meaningless or counter-productive, and underlines how little room our sovereign bodies have to maneouvre in an interconnected world market.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,302
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    I should imagine medium to large houses on the English side of Berwick will be popular with estate agents as middle to high earners flee Nat tax bombshell - a ratchet that will no doubt tighten year on year.

    The stamp duty is cheaper in England too for medium sized houses so a double whammy.

    Nevertheless the transaction costs of moving house, particularly at the upper end of the market, would take years to recouo, particularly if the difference in income tax is offset by other costs such as a longer commute.

    I doubt anyone would move because of it. However, it will probably affect decisions about new jobs:

    Would a higher earner prefer a job in England if they think they will increasingly become a target in Scotland? Would someone choose a career option south of the border because that feels safer? Would someone being offered a job demand a higher salary to come to Scotland?

  • sarissasarissa Posts: 357
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    I should imagine medium to large houses on the English side of Berwick will be popular with estate agents as middle to high earners flee Nat tax bombshell - a ratchet that will no doubt tighten year on year.

    The stamp duty is cheaper in England too for medium sized houses so a double whammy.

    Nevertheless the transaction costs of moving house, particularly at the upper end of the market, would take years to recouo, particularly if the difference in income tax is offset by other costs such as a longer commute.
    Plus free prescriptions, better services etc., etc.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400

    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    I should imagine medium to large houses on the English side of Berwick will be popular with estate agents as middle to high earners flee Nat tax bombshell - a ratchet that will no doubt tighten year on year.

    The stamp duty is cheaper in England too for medium sized houses so a double whammy.

    Nevertheless the transaction costs of moving house, particularly at the upper end of the market, would take years to recouo, particularly if the difference in income tax is offset by other costs such as a longer commute.

    I doubt anyone would move because of it. However, it will probably affect decisions about new jobs:

    Would a higher earner prefer a job in England if they think they will increasingly become a target in Scotland? Would someone choose a career option south of the border because that feels safer? Would someone being offered a job demand a higher salary to come to Scotland?

    Its possible that the NHS may start to find this a problem at Consultant level.
  • sarissa said:

    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    I should imagine medium to large houses on the English side of Berwick will be popular with estate agents as middle to high earners flee Nat tax bombshell - a ratchet that will no doubt tighten year on year.

    The stamp duty is cheaper in England too for medium sized houses so a double whammy.

    Nevertheless the transaction costs of moving house, particularly at the upper end of the market, would take years to recouo, particularly if the difference in income tax is offset by other costs such as a longer commute.
    Plus free prescriptions, better services etc., etc.
    A functioning society, what kind of inheritance is that to leave our kids? They'd rather the cash.
  • DavidL said:

    I'm sceptical that a penny either way on the rate of Scottish tax is going to make all that much difference to behaviours.

    If it was a one off I would agree but we already pay HRT from a lower base and there is a clear determination to make our system (a) different from England and (b) more aggressively "progressive" penalising the top earners. Housing costs are an important set off between, say, Edinburgh and London, but there are a lot of top Scottish taxpayers who commute to London already for much of the week. Moving south of the border may become more attractive if this persists. It won't take many to make this nonsense counter productive.
    The housing costs of London might be something to offset but places like Manchester, Leeds or Birmingham could start looking more relatively attractive.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    DavidL said:

    Ouch. That's another £1500 on my tax bill. I fear it may be worse if they repeat their trick of not indexing the bands as well. Who'd want to make money in Scotland if they could anywhere else?
    Well, you must be on £174k+ - you can probably afford it! :wink:
  • sarissa said:

    TGOHF said:
    The average Teacher salary in Scotland is £30,439 according to employment agency Adzuna - obviously the £35 k figure was chosen to fall on the side of those incurring (marginal) increase
    If the average teacher earns £30.5k then some teachers do indeed earn £35k.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400

    DavidL said:

    Ouch. That's another £1500 on my tax bill. I fear it may be worse if they repeat their trick of not indexing the bands as well. Who'd want to make money in Scotland if they could anywhere else?
    Well, you must be on £174k+ - you can probably afford it! :wink:
    Glad you think so. Other peoples' money, eh?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,463
    felix said:

    sarissa said:

    TGOHF said:
    The average Teacher salary in Scotland is £30,439 according to employment agency Adzuna - obviously the £35 k figure was chosen to fall on the side of those incurring (marginal) increase
    I take it you don;t get the idea of aspiration.
    Socialists are all for championing the poor and their life chances. Right up until those poor people actually utilise the better life chances, get on and succeed and then become part of the imperialist capitalist running dog class.
  • sarissa said:

    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    I should imagine medium to large houses on the English side of Berwick will be popular with estate agents as middle to high earners flee Nat tax bombshell - a ratchet that will no doubt tighten year on year.

    The stamp duty is cheaper in England too for medium sized houses so a double whammy.

    Nevertheless the transaction costs of moving house, particularly at the upper end of the market, would take years to recouo, particularly if the difference in income tax is offset by other costs such as a longer commute.
    Plus free prescriptions, better services etc., etc.
    I am nervous with anticipation of the SCon low tax plan & the the SLab high tax plan that will, in some contravention of the laws of politics, propel both to major electoral success. They do have alternative plans, right?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400

    DavidL said:

    I'm sceptical that a penny either way on the rate of Scottish tax is going to make all that much difference to behaviours.

    If it was a one off I would agree but we already pay HRT from a lower base and there is a clear determination to make our system (a) different from England and (b) more aggressively "progressive" penalising the top earners. Housing costs are an important set off between, say, Edinburgh and London, but there are a lot of top Scottish taxpayers who commute to London already for much of the week. Moving south of the border may become more attractive if this persists. It won't take many to make this nonsense counter productive.
    The housing costs of London might be something to offset but places like Manchester, Leeds or Birmingham could start looking more relatively attractive.
    The sad thing is that Scotland should be doing the exact opposite. We have been losing higher paid financial sector jobs ever since the Indyref got people nervous. We urgently need to attract more of the back office functions back to Scotland and build on what was a traditional strength. I don't think suggesting that their staff will be paying more tax than in Newcastle or Manchester exactly helps that drive.

    But then wealth creation seems to be something pretty dirty in Scotland. Our government is obsessed with what it can spend. It is apparently indifferent to the possibilities of growth. Its pretty grim.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ouch. That's another £1500 on my tax bill. I fear it may be worse if they repeat their trick of not indexing the bands as well. Who'd want to make money in Scotland if they could anywhere else?
    Well, you must be on £174k+ - you can probably afford it! :wink:
    Glad you think so. Other peoples' money, eh?
    You are in the top 1% of earners - be happy! I am :smile:
  • Scott_P said:
    It's completely irrelevant what Kern thinks as he will be out the door as soon as the new right wing OVP-FPO coalition is signed off.
  • So as a result of this bye in Waverley the Tories have 50 seats (-1) and the Lib Dems 1 seat (+1). And 6 Residents/Inds.

    In a Council the Lib Dems used to control years ago. Long slog back.

    Back to work. Bye.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,993
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm sceptical that a penny either way on the rate of Scottish tax is going to make all that much difference to behaviours.

    If it was a one off I would agree but we already pay HRT from a lower base and there is a clear determination to make our system (a) different from England and (b) more aggressively "progressive" penalising the top earners. Housing costs are an important set off between, say, Edinburgh and London, but there are a lot of top Scottish taxpayers who commute to London already for much of the week. Moving south of the border may become more attractive if this persists. It won't take many to make this nonsense counter productive.
    The housing costs of London might be something to offset but places like Manchester, Leeds or Birmingham could start looking more relatively attractive.
    The sad thing is that Scotland should be doing the exact opposite. We have been losing higher paid financial sector jobs ever since the Indyref got people nervous. We urgently need to attract more of the back office functions back to Scotland and build on what was a traditional strength. I don't think suggesting that their staff will be paying more tax than in Newcastle or Manchester exactly helps that drive.

    But then wealth creation seems to be something pretty dirty in Scotland. Our government is obsessed with what it can spend. It is apparently indifferent to the possibilities of growth. Its pretty grim.
    You will be ok if Corbyn get in then.
  • Mr. L, does Newcastle have a strong financial sector? I know Leeds, Bristol and Norwich do. Was just wondering where the financial jobs in Scotland might go, if go they do.

    Also, how does the new Scottish tax rates alter the overall tax take? Is it expected to be more, roughly the same, or less?

    Mr. Colin, cheers for that post.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    edited December 2017
    41% back a Parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal but 59% of Tories and 64% of UKIP voters are opposed. https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/941339037708713985
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    Yorkcity said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm sceptical that a penny either way on the rate of Scottish tax is going to make all that much difference to behaviours.

    If it was a one off I would agree but we already pay HRT from a lower base and there is a clear determination to make our system (a) different from England and (b) more aggressively "progressive" penalising the top earners. Housing costs are an important set off between, say, Edinburgh and London, but there are a lot of top Scottish taxpayers who commute to London already for much of the week. Moving south of the border may become more attractive if this persists. It won't take many to make this nonsense counter productive.
    The housing costs of London might be something to offset but places like Manchester, Leeds or Birmingham could start looking more relatively attractive.
    The sad thing is that Scotland should be doing the exact opposite. We have been losing higher paid financial sector jobs ever since the Indyref got people nervous. We urgently need to attract more of the back office functions back to Scotland and build on what was a traditional strength. I don't think suggesting that their staff will be paying more tax than in Newcastle or Manchester exactly helps that drive.

    But then wealth creation seems to be something pretty dirty in Scotland. Our government is obsessed with what it can spend. It is apparently indifferent to the possibilities of growth. Its pretty grim.
    You will be ok if Corbyn get in then.
    Well, I suppose our competitive disadvantage may disappear. Unfortunately, I fear other problems in our largest market that may well create other issues!
  • Utterly OT aside, but curious about this: how many people have bought any sideline merchandise related to a big franchise (Star Wars, Game of Thrones etc) as a Christmas present? Even if it's a tiny thing like a bookmark.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,993
    DavidL said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm sceptical that a penny either way on the rate of Scottish tax is going to make all that much difference to behaviours.

    If it was a one off I would agree but we already pay HRT from a lower base and there is a clear determination to make our system (a) different from England and (b) more aggressively "progressive" penalising the top earners. Housing costs are an important set off between, say, Edinburgh and London, but there are a lot of top Scottish taxpayers who commute to London already for much of the week. Moving south of the border may become more attractive if this persists. It won't take many to make this nonsense counter productive.
    The housing costs of London might be something to offset but places like Manchester, Leeds or Birmingham could start looking more relatively attractive.
    The sad thing is that Scotland should be doing the exact opposite. We have been losing higher paid financial sector jobs ever since the Indyref got people nervous. We urgently need to attract more of the back office functions back to Scotland and build on what was a traditional strength. I don't think suggesting that their staff will be paying more tax than in Newcastle or Manchester exactly helps that drive.

    But then wealth creation seems to be something pretty dirty in Scotland. Our government is obsessed with what it can spend. It is apparently indifferent to the possibilities of growth. Its pretty grim.
    You will be ok if Corbyn get in then.
    Well, I suppose our competitive disadvantage may disappear. Unfortunately, I fear other problems in our largest market that may well create other issues!
    David why do you think the SNP have done it now after all these years in power.?
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Couldn't put it better myself - to me, last night looks like a subversion of democracy, not a healthy expression of it.

    To quote a prominent Leaver of this parish "Fuck off, Please, just fuck off"

    Either you believe in Parliamentary democracy, the representatives voting their conscience in the best interests of their constituents, or you don't

    This "only when I agree with them" crap is another poisonous residue of the campaign of bullshit.

    "We have had enough of experts" and "MPs voting the way we don't like"

    You won. This is what parliamentary Sovereignty looks like. Suck it up.
    If you want to look stupid and dishonest, keep saying "We have had enough of experts" as if it was what Gove said. Otherwise, stop.
    To be fair Scott only has to open his mouth to look stupid and dishonest.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400

    Mr. L, does Newcastle have a strong financial sector? I know Leeds, Bristol and Norwich do. Was just wondering where the financial jobs in Scotland might go, if go they do.

    Also, how does the new Scottish tax rates alter the overall tax take? Is it expected to be more, roughly the same, or less?

    Mr. Colin, cheers for that post.

    I know that Newcastle was bidding aggressively towards companies that were planning to move south if Indyref had gone the other way. I am aware they made a number of presentations.

    On the overall tax take according to our shiny new Fiscal Commission tax take from IT is supposed to increase by £199m a year by 2022/3 :http://www.fiscalcommission.scot/media/1197/scotlands-economic-fiscal-forecasts-summary.pdf

    I think that must be in real terms as the nominal increase seems somewhat higher.
This discussion has been closed.