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SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we edge towards to the year end three seasonal political betting tips

Date of the Next UK election: 2022, 5/2 SkyBet

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,640
    edited December 2017
    First!

    I'd be careful with Rudd but betting against Boris and JRM looks value. Betting against Corbyn as next PM is another that looks good.

    Edit/ 1/3 Green are the backing odds but don't think he can be laid at anything near that?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,343
    A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.

    In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.
  • VinnyVinny Posts: 32
    Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,948
    Hunt definitely has is sights on the leadership. Will Cable last the year?
  • Vinny said:

    Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not

    Oh dear.

    Never mind, the rest of your post was equally well informed.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,214
    Vinny said:

    Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.

    Lol - David Herdson is a Conservative activist - he gave is early warning to the debacle of the GE result!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,948
    Speaking as a Conservative* Mr Herdson is incorrect. Andrea Leadsom and JRM represent the true values of the party and are best placed to define a modern post Brexit Britain and connect with the next generation.

    * urgh
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,640
    Vinny said:

    Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.

    Conservatives need to pay some attention to people's reactions after the turning and looking bit....
  • IanB2 said:

    Vinny said:

    Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.

    Conservatives need to pay some attention to people's reactions after the turning and looking bit....
    “Point and laugh” may not be the optimum outcome....
  • You all know my view. The Moggmeister has the Moggmentum
  • Jonathan said:

    Hunt definitely has is sights on the leadership. Will Cable last the year?

    1) Yes - he’s survived in a difficult senior position and isn’t particularly associated with Brexit.
    2) Who?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,137
    Vinny said:

    Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.

    An iota of judgment might be helpful, too...
  • Vinny said:

    Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.

    Whoops.

    Tracey crouch available at over 500-1 on betfair exchange.

    Anywho with england cricketers being gound down, past correlation suggests spurs might be whipped later on .... not top.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,137
    Sandpit said:

    A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.

    In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.

    Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,343

    Jonathan said:

    Hunt definitely has is sights on the leadership. Will Cable last the year?

    1) Yes - he’s survived in a difficult senior position and isn’t particularly associated with Brexit.
    2) Who?
    My backs in this market are Hunt, Gove and Hammond, all of whom are pretty much keeping their heads down and avoiding the Brexit wars at the moment. Hunt as you say has done incredibly well in what’s the most difficult and political of departments.

    I’m with David H in laying the favourite half dozen in the next leader market.
  • Vinny said:

    Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.

    I'll take that as an endorsement of what I hope was dispassionate analysis.

    As for Boris, breaking wind has the ability to make people listen, turn and look. His ability to delegate is not one of his problems. His ability to inspire confidence among MPs is.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,343
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.

    In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.

    Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.
    Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870
    Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.
  • Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.

    In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.

    Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.
    Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.
    I put a 100 on them at 5-4 yesterday as smith looked imperious then... the weather forecast is my main risk rather tham our players sadly...

    Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,547
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.

    In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.

    Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.
    Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.
    They're smartly upping the run rate, which puts a lot of pressure on England.

    If we'd made just 50 runs more, I think a draw would have been nailed on. (In that it would effectively have reduced the number of sessions we'd have to fave by one.)
  • Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.

    In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.

    Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.
    Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.
    I put a 100 on them at 5-4 yesterday as smith looked imperious then... the weather forecast is my main risk rather tham our players sadly...

    Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..
    I’m putting £50 on Spurs to win and Harry Kane FGS.

    I was actually offered tickets to this match but I decided to stay at home and watch the final of Strictly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.

    In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.

    Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.
    Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.
    I put a 100 on them at 5-4 yesterday as smith looked imperious then... the weather forecast is my main risk rather tham our players sadly...

    Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..
    I’m putting £50 on Spurs to win and Harry Kane FGS.

    I was actually offered tickets to this match but I decided to stay at home and watch the final of Strictly.
    Well that's Spurs doomed.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,239
    edited December 2017
    A timely and interesting thread Mr. Herdson but 2 of your 3 suggested betting markets are simply too long term to set the pulse racing.
    It's high time the bookies, particularly the more imaginative ones in terms of political betting came up with some new and interesting markets for 2018 and I speak here of Paddy Power, Wm. Hill .... (yes really!) and of course Ladbrokes .... where's Shadsy been almost invisible these past several months? Markets like perhaps who will be Foreign Secretary, Chancellor, etc on 31 Dec 2018. How many of the present cabinet will have left their present positions by the same date, etc. What will be the highest polling figure recorded for the LibDems by [Name of Pollster] during 2018. Will Bercow still be Speaker at 31 Dec 2018. Will SeanT return to the PB.com fold next year, etc, etc.
    Doubtless PBers are more than capable of coming up with some much more interesting and innovative ideas.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Ha, I wish I had the cash to lay everyone under 20/1.

    F1: Williams decide to procrastinate on the driver decision until next year:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/42370387
  • Punters backing JRM for Next Con leader / Next PM need to be aware that there's a not-insignificant risk that he won't hold a Tory whip when the election comes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,640

    Vinny said:

    Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.

    I'll take that as an endorsement of what I hope was dispassionate analysis.

    As for Boris, breaking wind has the ability to make people listen, turn and look. His ability to delegate is not one of his problems. His ability to inspire confidence among MPs is.
    And for the OP to glibly concede that he's a sh* manager is skipping over some fundamental qualities for a PM. London is littered with his expensive mistakes.
  • On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

    I’m backing her.

    If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,796

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.

    In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.

    Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.
    Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.
    I put a 100 on them at 5-4 yesterday as smith looked imperious then... the weather forecast is my main risk rather tham our players sadly...

    Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..
    I’m putting £50 on Spurs to win and Harry Kane FGS.

    I was actually offered tickets to this match but I decided to stay at home and watch the final of Strictly.
    Holy crap pass the service revolver
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,796

    On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

    I’m backing her.

    If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

    The big windbag is first rat out of the sinking ship, she will fit in well at the cesspit trough in Westminster.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,229
    OK, my love affair with Mogg just hit the buffers. "Vassal state" is beneath-the-line-on-Guido talk.

    Aus. 1.41 to win on betfair is surely a candy/baby situation?
  • Mogg has a point. As a member of the EU we elect MEPs who participate in the production of laws which we have to follow. When we leave the EU other people will elect MEPs who pass laws we have to follow.
  • On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

    I’m backing her.

    If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

    To stand, she first needs either to become an MP before the contest begins, or for a change in the rules to make non-MP eligible to stand. She'd then need to win. That's not a 16/1 shot.
  • On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

    I’m backing her.

    If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

    That's still quite a tall order -

    - She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
    - Win the local constituency party's nomination.
    - Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
    - Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.

    Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,137
    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.

    In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.

    Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.
    Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.
    I put a 100 on them at 5-4 yesterday as smith looked imperious then... the weather forecast is my main risk rather tham our players sadly...

    Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..
    I’m putting £50 on Spurs to win and Harry Kane FGS.

    I was actually offered tickets to this match but I decided to stay at home and watch the final of Strictly.
    Holy crap pass the service revolver
    There are those of us who would pay hard cash not to watch football, so the choice doesn't seem quite so absurd to me.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,137

    Mogg has a point. As a member of the EU we elect MEPs who participate in the production of laws which we have to follow. When we leave the EU other people will elect MEPs who pass laws we have to follow.

    We don't *have* to follow anything.
    But if we want to make deals, there are costs.

    Mogg is just being provocatively hyperbolic concerning the costs.
  • On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

    I’m backing her.

    If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

    To stand, she first needs either to become an MP before the contest begins, or for a change in the rules to make non-MP eligible to stand. She'd then need to win. That's not a 16/1 shot.
    She's making noises about it.

    Plus I can see a few voluntary by elections, politics far too poisonous these days.

    Anna Soubry, one of the 11 Conservative MPs who defied government whips this week when the government suffered its first Commons defeat over Brexit, has received multiple messages saying she should be hanged as a traitor.

    Messages received by Soubry’s office – usually seen first by her parliamentary staff – also feature abuse, with one Facebook message saying: “Go hang yourself slag.”

    It follows death threats to Dominic Grieve, the former attorney general, who drew up the amendment to the EU withdrawal bill that passed on Wednesday by 309 votes to 305, ensuring MPs must have a final vote on any Brexit deal.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/15/anna-soubry-receives-messages-calling-for-her-to-be-hanged-as-a-traitor-brexit
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653
    MaxPB said:

    Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.

    Party leaders frequently get a boost in their own seat.
  • Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.

    Party leaders frequently get a boost in their own seat.
    Theresa May didn't.
  • Shocking behaviour by the Met plods:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42366629

    And a chance to see former Conservative MP Jerry Hayes.
  • On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

    I’m backing her.

    If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

    That's still quite a tall order -

    - She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
    - Win the local constituency party's nomination.
    - Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
    - Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.

    Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.
    Not to mention get some policies other than:

    1) End WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland
    2) Build endless new towns (locations and financing not revealed)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,948
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.

    Party leaders frequently get a boost in their own seat.
    She'd get a double boost, since May would not be leading the campaign.

    Nevertheless Tories need to find someone who after 12 years can take them safely into opposition. Rudd is a risk.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,189

    On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

    I’m backing her.

    If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

    But if the leadership election is before 2021 Davidson won't be an MP.

    And if it's after 2021 the 'winning' shine will have rubbed off her in all probability.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,137

    On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

    I’m backing her.

    If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

    To stand, she first needs either to become an MP before the contest begins, or for a change in the rules to make non-MP eligible to stand. She'd then need to win. That's not a 16/1 shot.
    She's making noises about it.

    Plus I can see a few voluntary by elections, politics far too poisonous these days.

    Anna Soubry, one of the 11 Conservative MPs who defied government whips this week when the government suffered its first Commons defeat over Brexit, has received multiple messages saying she should be hanged as a traitor.

    Messages received by Soubry’s office – usually seen first by her parliamentary staff – also feature abuse, with one Facebook message saying: “Go hang yourself slag.”

    It follows death threats to Dominic Grieve, the former attorney general, who drew up the amendment to the EU withdrawal bill that passed on Wednesday by 309 votes to 305, ensuring MPs must have a final vote on any Brexit deal.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/15/anna-soubry-receives-messages-calling-for-her-to-be-hanged-as-a-traitor-brexit
    Nationalism, founded as it is in emotion rather than reason, can be a very ugly thing.

    Still, at least we are not yet Lithuania...
    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-a-single-remark-stole-a-lithuanian-writers-livelihood
  • Mr. Richard, it's absolutely atrocious. Either the police were incompetent, or they did it deliberately. Both are terrible.

    Surely the man (he's named, of course, whereas his accuser is not, because that's equality) would have pointed out these many messages? Not to mention other witnesses.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,948
    Anna Soubry for leader....

    ... The Liz Kendall of the Tory party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,024
    Oh my !

    Thought it was day 4, and not 3 in the test. England really are in the deep stuff :E
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    2021 is also a strong bet for the date of the next general election, as that would also be after Brexit and just as the transition period would be ending.

    The Tory membership will also be likely to pick a Leaver to succeed May and to ensure we do genuinely leave both the EU and single market and end free movement post Brexit. Boris, JRM and Davis and Gove all stand a chance but I think MPs will likely put forward Davis and Rudd and the membership would then pick Davis. Let us also not forget Cameron only won with the membership in 2005 after the party had been in opposition for 8 years, in 2001 members put purity over proven ability and IDS easily beat Clarke with opposition to the Euro proving the pivotal litmus test. I expect being a proven Leaver to be the key litmus test next time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,948
    edited December 2017
    Cricket at its best is an escape from the troubles of the world. Oh my indeed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    JRM is now clearly the 'Prince across the water' for Tory hard Brexiteers and is setting himself up as the de facto leader of that wing within the party. I don't think he will have enough MP support to get to the final 2 this time to succeed May, though he may get close, however he is the likely next Tory leader of the opposition if and when the Tories lose power.
  • Jonathan said:

    Cricket at its best is an escape from the troubles of the world. Oh my

    Still, it's a good job we left Adil Rashi at home. He bowls too many four balls, you know.


    The selectors should be sacked. All of them. Now.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,409
    MaxPB said:

    Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.

    If Joe 90 loses her seat then the Horde have lost the GE and will be replacing her as leader anyway so her marginal status is irrelevant.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630

    Shocking behaviour by the Met plods:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42366629

    And a chance to see former Conservative MP Jerry Hayes.

    I once did a mini pupillage with Jerry Hayes, great character and top lawyer
  • Pulpstar said:

    Oh my !

    Thought it was day 4, and not 3 in the test. England really are in the deep stuff :E

    Stuart Broad should be relieved that there's been so much talk of Anderson and Cook being on the way out.

    It helps to distract attention from his mediocre record of one 5w/i in his last 29 tests.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653

    Shocking behaviour by the Met plods:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42366629

    And a chance to see former Conservative MP Jerry Hayes.

    I don't follow the argument about "lack of resources". It's hardly rocket science that such evidence needs to be disclosed.
  • Sean_F said:

    Shocking behaviour by the Met plods:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42366629

    And a chance to see former Conservative MP Jerry Hayes.

    I don't follow the argument about "lack of resources". It's hardly rocket science that such evidence needs to be disclosed.
    I dare say that Jerry Hayes wouldn't lose out if more taxpayers money was spent in this area.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,459
    edited December 2017
    MaxPB said:

    Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.

    That's a feature not a bug:
    1) Being PM generally gets an MP a boost in their own seat, so all things being equal it makes sense to cash that in by picking one from a marginal
    2) If they fail badly enough to lose their own seat, the voters save the party the trouble of sacking them.
  • Shocking behaviour by the Met plods:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42366629

    And a chance to see former Conservative MP Jerry Hayes.

    Interesting that the Review Process seems to have failed completely.

    I recently helped a friend with a Tax Credit case that went to a judicial hearing and it was clear to me that had the case been reviewed properly it would never have got that far. My impression was in fact that it had never not reviewed at all, and that under-pressure case officers were just throwing cases 'over the top' in the hope that some got through.

    Sounds like the same basic disease.
  • Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.

    Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?

    [Apologies for ropey Latin].
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    Sebastian Kurz agrees a deal with the Freedom Party to become Austria's next Chancellor

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42374693
  • I have to dash out. Cheltenham today. But before I go I'd like to point out to watchers of the Trump market that his popularity rating is down to an all-time low of 36.5%. Generally speaking, 40% is regarded as dangerously low, and 35% critical.

    DYOR, as my friend would say.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    Cameron to take charge of a new £750 million scheme encouraging port, rail and road links between China and its trading partners

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42377177
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.

    If Joe 90 loses her seat then the Horde have lost the GE and will be replacing her as leader anyway so her marginal status is irrelevant.
    I disagree, I don't think that takes the demographics in Hastings (and the way this is changing) into account; think Brighton but 40 years behind. I could well see the Tories scraping a narrow majority overall but losing Hastings at the next GE.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    HYUFD said:

    JRM is now clearly the 'Prince across the water' for Tory hard Brexiteers and is setting himself up as the de facto leader of that wing within the party. I don't think he will have enough MP support to get to the final 2 this time to succeed May, though he may get close, however he is the likely next Tory leader of the opposition if and when the Tories lose power.
    Oh I do hope so! :lol:
  • Betting post.

    Gemma Atkinson is 23s on Betfair to win Strictly.

    That price is so wrong, back her.

    For the record, I'm also laying Alexandra Burke.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653
    HYUFD said:

    Sebastian Kurz agrees a deal with the Freedom Party to become Austria's next Chancellor

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42374693

    I noted that one of the conditions the FPO insisted on was repealing the smoking ban in bars and restaurants.
  • David Herdson's tips look sound. I'd be careful about Amber Rudd though since she has a modicum of competence and as such might be in with a shout.

    No one is talking about the economy: Remainers because it isn't in recession and Leavers because it is so anaemic. But it is likely to be central to how the political debate develops.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,137

    Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.

    Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?

    [Apologies for ropey Latin].

    If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.
    On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650

    Betting post.

    Gemma Atkinson is 23s on Betfair to win Strictly.

    That price is so wrong, back her.

    For the record, I'm also laying Alexandra Burke.


    In your dreams! :wink:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.

    If Joe 90 loses her seat then the Horde have lost the GE and will be replacing her as leader anyway so her marginal status is irrelevant.
    I disagree, I don't think that takes the demographics in Hastings (and the way this is changing) into account; think Brighton but 40 years behind. I could well see the Tories scraping a narrow majority overall but losing Hastings at the next GE.
    I'm surprised that the Conservatives still hold Hastings. I guess the Conservative vote in Rye and other outlying villages is so overwhelming that it enables them to just about hold the seat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    edited December 2017

    HYUFD said:

    JRM is now clearly the 'Prince across the water' for Tory hard Brexiteers and is setting himself up as the de facto leader of that wing within the party. I don't think he will have enough MP support to get to the final 2 this time to succeed May, though he may get close, however he is the likely next Tory leader of the opposition if and when the Tories lose power.
    Oh I do hope so! :lol:
    Before you get too excited many Tories were equally ecstatic when Labour picked Corbyn to be leader of the opposition
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,264
    Slow hand clap...

    @AlbertoNardelli: Main impact of Davis remarks is that EU27 want *everything* that is agreed at every stage of the talks translated into a legal text before there can be proper progress in any next stage.
  • Nigelb said:

    Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.

    Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?

    [Apologies for ropey Latin].

    If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.
    On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.
    The Courts themselves have complained about too many weak and badly prepared cases being brought. It's a symptom of lack of funding and yea it makes matters worse because then resources are burned up in inquiries, apologies and reviews etc.

    Now I really must go, Sorry Morris, didn't get the Latin.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650

    What happened to those freshly painted red lines he was celebrating last week?
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,214

    On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

    I’m backing her.

    If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

    That's still quite a tall order -

    - She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
    - Win the local constituency party's nomination.
    - Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
    - Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.

    Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.
    I think there are several Scottish seats she could easily win on current polling - if they became vacant.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sebastian Kurz agrees a deal with the Freedom Party to become Austria's next Chancellor

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42374693

    I noted that one of the conditions the FPO insisted on was repealing the smoking ban in bars and restaurants.
    At least one thing Ken Clarke agrees with the FPO on then
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,024
    Ton up for Broad
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,256
    edited December 2017
    Gemma down to 17.5.

    I PB moves markets.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,214
    Nigelb said:

    On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

    I’m backing her.

    If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

    To stand, she first needs either to become an MP before the contest begins, or for a change in the rules to make non-MP eligible to stand. She'd then need to win. That's not a 16/1 shot.
    She's making noises about it.

    Plus I can see a few voluntary by elections, politics far too poisonous these days.

    Anna Soubry, one of the 11 Conservative MPs who defied government whips this week when the government suffered its first Commons defeat over Brexit, has received multiple messages saying she should be hanged as a traitor.

    Messages received by Soubry’s office – usually seen first by her parliamentary staff – also feature abuse, with one Facebook message saying: “Go hang yourself slag.”

    It follows death threats to Dominic Grieve, the former attorney general, who drew up the amendment to the EU withdrawal bill that passed on Wednesday by 309 votes to 305, ensuring MPs must have a final vote on any Brexit deal.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/15/anna-soubry-receives-messages-calling-for-her-to-be-hanged-as-a-traitor-brexit
    Nationalism, founded as it is in emotion rather than reason, can be a very ugly thing.

    Still, at least we are not yet Lithuania...
    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-a-single-remark-stole-a-lithuanian-writers-livelihood
    In my view much of this abuse has its roots in the attitudes of many left-wing activists, including some MPs who talk routinely and openly of 'Tory scum', 'murderers', etc. It certainly did not begin with Brextremism, ugly as that is.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.

    Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?

    [Apologies for ropey Latin].

    If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.
    On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.
    The Courts themselves have complained about too many weak and badly prepared cases being brought. It's a symptom of lack of funding and yea it makes matters worse because then resources are burned up in inquiries, apologies and reviews etc.

    Now I really must go, Sorry Morris, didn't get the Latin.
    There's an argument to be had about resources when complex cases are given to people too junior or inexperienced, due to funding cuts.

    But, this type of error is pretty basic.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,409
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sebastian Kurz agrees a deal with the Freedom Party to become Austria's next Chancellor

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42374693

    I noted that one of the conditions the FPO insisted on was repealing the smoking ban in bars and restaurants.
    Why be forced to choose between cancer and fascism? You can have both!
  • Mr. Eagles, I remember when Verstappen fell from 251 to 51. Nothing to do with me, of course, but that was quite the tumble. And still overpriced, as it turned out.

    Cheers for your tip. When's the final result?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    edited December 2017
    Australian ABC news projects John Alexander has won the by election today in Bennelong (John Howard's old seat) for the governing LNP coalition after a close fight with Labor. That will provide some relief to PM Turnbull and ensure he keeps his very narrow 1 seat majority. The by election was called after Alexander was found to be half British and he has now renounced his dual nationality to stay in the Parliament


    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/9265316
  • Great tips, David.

    I'm also considering Gavin Williamson at 50/1. Yes, he's being bloody obvious about it, but he's made an impressive start, and is clearly hungry for it (and ruthless enough to fight for it) and some of his moves in Defence are very much calculated to appeal to the Tory base.
  • Scott_P said:

    Slow hand clap...

    @AlbertoNardelli: Main impact of Davis remarks is that EU27 want *everything* that is agreed at every stage of the talks translated into a legal text before there can be proper progress in any next stage.

    Considering that the EU has a record of breaking promises that might not be to its advantage.
  • Mr. Eagles, I remember when Verstappen fell from 251 to 51. Nothing to do with me, of course, but that was quite the tumble. And still overpriced, as it turned out.

    Cheers for your tip. When's the final result?

    Around 8.45pmish
  • Mr. Punter, "Who selects the selectors?" a take on "Who guards the guards [themselves]?/Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?"

    Mr. Eagles, cheers. Is that tonight?

    It's been a long time since I paid attention to SCD (long time members may recall I got screwed over by the BBC's Tom Chambers bullshit) - is there an elimination or suchlike, or is it just a case of the winner being picked from all the finalists? [Wondering about hedging possibilities].
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,796
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.

    In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.

    Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.
    Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.
    I put a 100 on them at 5-4 yesterday as smith looked imperious then... the weather forecast is my main risk rather tham our players sadly...

    Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..
    I’m putting £50 on Spurs to win and Harry Kane FGS.

    I was actually offered tickets to this match but I decided to stay at home and watch the final of Strictly.
    Holy crap pass the service revolver
    There are those of us who would pay hard cash not to watch football, so the choice doesn't seem quite so absurd to me.

    Nigel, I agree , it was the "Strictly Come Dancing " bit , would rather have my tackle removed with a broken bottle.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,723
    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.

    If Joe 90 loses her seat then the Horde have lost the GE and will be replacing her as leader anyway so her marginal status is irrelevant.
    I disagree, I don't think that takes the demographics in Hastings (and the way this is changing) into account; think Brighton but 40 years behind. I could well see the Tories scraping a narrow majority overall but losing Hastings at the next GE.
    I'm surprised that the Conservatives still hold Hastings. I guess the Conservative vote in Rye and other outlying villages is so overwhelming that it enables them to just about hold the seat.
    I don't think people in Rye think of themselves as an outlying village. But you are right. There is a solid Tory vote there and it will not be an easy seat for Labour even in a good year.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,409
    HYUFD said:

    Australian ABC news projects John Alexander has won the by election today in Bennelong (John Howard's old seat) for the governing LNP coalition after a close fight with Labor. That will provide some relief to PM Turnbull and ensure he keeps his very narrow majority. The by election was called after Alexander was found to be half British and he has now renounced his dual nationality to stay in the Parliament


    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/9265316

    5% swing to Labor though which would be enough to win them 20 seats in a general election. Turnbull is the walking dead. He might get ousted on a "save the furniture" strategy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,796
    felix said:

    On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

    I’m backing her.

    If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

    That's still quite a tall order -

    - She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
    - Win the local constituency party's nomination.
    - Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
    - Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.

    Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.
    I think there are several Scottish seats she could easily win on current polling - if they became vacant.
    Cuckoo
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 735
    Nigelb said:

    Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.

    Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?

    [Apologies for ropey Latin].

    If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.
    On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.
    I concur that it is not unreasonable to think that the system might be struggling, but for the record, the Times has today published a letter from the Director of Public Prosecutions, Alison Saunders, in which she says "It is incorrect to suggest that the CPS would withhold such data in order to save costs. The CPS is clear about its obligations to disclose relevant material that could assist the defence case. Cost considerations play no part in decisions over disclosure."
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JRM is now clearly the 'Prince across the water' for Tory hard Brexiteers and is setting himself up as the de facto leader of that wing within the party. I don't think he will have enough MP support to get to the final 2 this time to succeed May, though he may get close, however he is the likely next Tory leader of the opposition if and when the Tories lose power.
    Oh I do hope so! :lol:
    Before you get too excited many Tories were equally ecstatic when Labour picked Corbyn to be leader of the opposition
    Ah yes - that's a very good point! And quite a few Dems were no doubt pleased when Trump got the Republican nomination.

    Even so, I can't see Little Lord Fauntleroy being an election winner for the Tories.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Australian ABC news projects John Alexander has won the by election today in Bennelong (John Howard's old seat) for the governing LNP coalition after a close fight with Labor. That will provide some relief to PM Turnbull and ensure he keeps his very narrow majority. The by election was called after Alexander was found to be half British and he has now renounced his dual nationality to stay in the Parliament


    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/9265316

    5% swing to Labor though which would be enough to win them 20 seats in a general election. Turnbull is the walking dead. He might get ousted on a "save the furniture" strategy.
    Not quite. The Coalition lost Bennelong in 2007 when Rudd won a Labor landslide however they won it back again in 2010 when Gillard only won enough seats for a minority Labor Government. The fact the Coalition have held Bennelong then suggests that the next general election in Australia could still be close albeit Labor are favourites
  • HYUFD said:

    2021 is also a strong bet for the date of the next general election, as that would also be after Brexit and just as the transition period would be ending.

    The Tory membership will also be likely to pick a Leaver to succeed May and to ensure we do genuinely leave both the EU and single market and end free movement post Brexit. Boris, JRM and Davis and Gove all stand a chance but I think MPs will likely put forward Davis and Rudd and the membership would then pick Davis. Let us also not forget Cameron only won with the membership in 2005 after the party had been in opposition for 8 years, in 2001 members put purity over proven ability and IDS easily beat Clarke with opposition to the Euro proving the pivotal litmus test. I expect being a proven Leaver to be the key litmus test next time.

    I think it'll be GE2022, because the Government will want to bank some quick wins in the first 12 months post-Brexit: think new immigration controls, blue passports, a few new trade deals, and extra cash for the NHS.

    The next election will hinge on leadership, the economy and whether austerity has ended or not, though, with the Conservatives having a harder time making the running just due to being in office for 12 years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JRM is now clearly the 'Prince across the water' for Tory hard Brexiteers and is setting himself up as the de facto leader of that wing within the party. I don't think he will have enough MP support to get to the final 2 this time to succeed May, though he may get close, however he is the likely next Tory leader of the opposition if and when the Tories lose power.
    Oh I do hope so! :lol:
    Before you get too excited many Tories were equally ecstatic when Labour picked Corbyn to be leader of the opposition
    Ah yes - that's a very good point! And quite a few Dems were no doubt pleased when Trump got the Republican nomination.

    Even so, I can't see Little Lord Fauntleroy being an election winner for the Tories.
    Not now maybe no, after 5 years of a Corbyn government who knows where Labour's poll rating would be?
  • malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

    I’m backing her.

    If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

    That's still quite a tall order -

    - She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
    - Win the local constituency party's nomination.
    - Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
    - Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.

    Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.
    I think there are several Scottish seats she could easily win on current polling - if they became vacant.
    Cuckoo
    You used to say cuckoo to anyone who predicted the Tories would make net seat gains in 2017.

    How’d that turn out ?
  • HYUFD said:

    Australian ABC news projects John Alexander has won the by election today in Bennelong (John Howard's old seat) for the governing LNP coalition after a close fight with Labor. That will provide some relief to PM Turnbull and ensure he keeps his very narrow 1 seat majority. The by election was called after Alexander was found to be half British and he has now renounced his dual nationality to stay in the Parliament


    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/9265316

    "Found to be half-British" - that's weird. Most Australians have British heritage, and there's over a million Brits living there.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,409

    Great tips, David.

    I'm also considering Gavin Williamson at 50/1. Yes, he's being bloody obvious about it, but he's made an impressive start, and is clearly hungry for it (and ruthless enough to fight for it) and some of his moves in Defence are very much calculated to appeal to the Tory base.

    Williamson is Steerpike made flesh.

    If ever he had harboured a conscience in his tough narrow breast he had by now dug out and flung away the awkward thing — flung it so far away that were he ever to need it again he could never find it. High-shouldered to a degree little short of malformation, slender and adroit of limb and frame, his eyes close-set and the colour of dried blood, he is climbing the spiral staircase of the soul of Gormenghast, bound for some pinnacle of the itching fancy — some wild, invulnerable eyrie best known to himself; where he can watch the world spread out below him, and shake exultantly his clotted wings
This discussion has been closed.