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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jacob Rees-Mogg might not even be a Tory MP at the time of the

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jacob Rees-Mogg might not even be a Tory MP at the time of the next Tory leadership contest

.@Jacob_Rees_Mogg on transition deal: “We cannot be a colony of the EU for two years from 2019 to 2021, accepting new laws that are made without any say-so from the British people, parliament or government…that is being a vassal state of the EU” #newsnight pic.twitter.com/PVMWYDnrgB

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,510
    First.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,510
    On topic. I think it's unlikely that Rees-Mogg loses the whip. For such a scenario to arise, we'd surely be looking at the collapse of the government. I haven't heard anyone suggest that the whip should have been withdrawn from the traitors remainer rebels.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516
    Bronze medal! What would JRM have done to deserve withdrawal of the whip? He’s not voted against a motion of confidence, and seems no more principled on matters EU than Ken Clarke.

    Do we see in this thread the first positive comment from TSE about Mrs May and her negotiations, by the way?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516
    Again, why do we keep selecting Cook? We should have a whip round to buy his flight home. Eng 29/2 chasing 260.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,652
    Chasing 260 to avoid a innings defeat
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,510
    Barmy Army doing a rain dance.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516
    alex. said:

    Chasing 260 to avoid a innings defeat

    Yes, only the rain can save England from their fate now. There is some forecast but it’s unlikely to be enough. Aus 1.33 at the moment.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    Sandpit said:

    Again, why do we keep selecting Cook? We should have a whip round to buy his flight home. Eng 29/2 chasing 260.

    Morning folks! Cook’s got an excellent track record, and, as I’ve said before he’s still young; 33 on Christmas Day. However, there’s clearly something amiss. Pining for his young family perhaps? Or worrying about the forthcoming lanbing season?

    Or, perish the thought, the effect of Brexit on the farm!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516
    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...
  • Sandpit said:

    Bronze medal! What would JRM have done to deserve withdrawal of the whip? He’s not voted against a motion of confidence, and seems no more principled on matters EU than Ken Clarke.

    Do we see in this thread the first positive comment from TSE about Mrs May and her negotiations, by the way?

    He might voluntarily resign the whip by defecting/quiting.
  • JRM is right in relation top Brexit and TSE is wrong. Brexit is ultimately a binary choice between fully in and fully out - there is not going to be a 'pragmatic' compromise because the EU have made it clear that they are more than happy to pursue an outcome that is against their own economic interests to protect their 'project'.

    The Phase 1 agreement is not sustainable as it primarily signposts to an outcome that is not acceptable to the UK and is certainly worse than no deal.

    JRM deserves credit because alone of the Brexiteers he sees the matter in terms of principle and not (for example with Gove and Johnson) in terms of personal political advancement.

    If I am right and the Phase 2 talks turn to disaster, who are the Tories going to turn to? Someone who was right to point out the problems all along or someone who pretended that regulatory alignment was in any way compatible with taking back control?

    Every time I see an anti-JRM post from the remainers I laugh - because it shows how terrified they are that he really is the person most likely to the the next PM. But keep repeating 'lay the favourite' if it makes you feel better, cos following conventional wisdom works so well these days....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,410

    Sandpit said:

    Bronze medal! What would JRM have done to deserve withdrawal of the whip? He’s not voted against a motion of confidence, and seems no more principled on matters EU than Ken Clarke.

    Do we see in this thread the first positive comment from TSE about Mrs May and her negotiations, by the way?

    He might voluntarily resign the whip by defecting/quiting.
    But he just won't. He's no Carswell. The Moggster's home is in the Conservative Party.

    You'd get better odds of him becoming a Hari Krishna convert than of losing the Tory whip.
  • Events, events: We could all be dead tomorrow. Certainty and expectancy make strange bedfellows.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,410
    Sandpit said:

    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...

    At least this will be over tomorrow. At worst....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    The rain dance has worked. For now anyway, although the probability (!) is that it will only coincide with the tea interval.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,693
    Bananas are marsupials.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516

    Sandpit said:

    Bronze medal! What would JRM have done to deserve withdrawal of the whip? He’s not voted against a motion of confidence, and seems no more principled on matters EU than Ken Clarke.

    Do we see in this thread the first positive comment from TSE about Mrs May and her negotiations, by the way?

    He might voluntarily resign the whip by defecting/quiting.
    Can’t see that happening myself, he’s an old fashioned Tory through and through and doesn’t seem the sort to be as reckless as, umm, Reckless.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 18,176
    Sandpit said:

    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...

    The actions of England's cricketers off-pitch show they're a bunch of unprofessional idiots. We should just throw in the towel in this series and bring them home in disgrace.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,410

    Sandpit said:

    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...

    The actions of England's cricketers off-pitch show they're a bunch of unprofessional idiots. We should just throw in the towel in this series and bring them home in disgrace.
    There's something to be said for bringing them all home and sending out an entirely new squad for the last two dead rubbers. "Just go and get some experience, lads. And try not to get too pissed, eh?"
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    Rain dance hasn’t worked. They’re back on!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,410
    JohnLoony said:

    Bananas are marsupials.

    And can probably bat better for Australia than anything we have.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516

    Sandpit said:

    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...

    The actions of England's cricketers off-pitch show they're a bunch of unprofessional idiots. We should just throw in the towel in this series and bring them home in disgrace.
    There's something to be said for bringing them all home and sending out an entirely new squad for the last two dead rubbers. "Just go and get some experience, lads. And try not to get too pissed, eh?"
    Yup! :+1:

    Treat it as an opportunity to develop new talent and to enforce some discipline in the side.

    And fire the selectors the minute this series is over, they’re not fit for purpose.
  • @TSE this is even less likely a scenario as Abbott becoming leader of the Labour Party (and I can't think what idiot would have seeded you that idea...). Mogg is a Tory through and Through, and a popular one. He won't quit. He can't have the whip taken away without May effectively splitting the party. He has the backing of the Tory press on this issue and May does not.

    @Archer101au the only problem with this binary decision point is the practicalities don't work. I know that you dislike that HMRC and the port operators and the food industry and the automotive industry and the aircraft industry and the chemicals industry people have all detailed why hard Brexit WTO would utterly cripple them, but they are the experts in the field and you are not. If as you describe it it's a binary all in or all out decision, the responsible thing for free Trade pro business Tories to advocate would be all in. Yet you do not. Why is that...?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,410
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...

    The actions of England's cricketers off-pitch show they're a bunch of unprofessional idiots. We should just throw in the towel in this series and bring them home in disgrace.
    There's something to be said for bringing them all home and sending out an entirely new squad for the last two dead rubbers. "Just go and get some experience, lads. And try not to get too pissed, eh?"
    Yup! :+1:

    Treat it as an opportunity to develop new talent and to enforce some discipline in the side.

    And fire the selectors the minute this series is over, they’re not fit for purpose.
    A new lot couldn't do worse than the current 100% failure rate. And who knows, some of them might be thankful for the opportunity, dig in - and not flash at balls two feet outside their stumps.
  • When betting on the next Tory leader/PM markets it might be wise to think ‘Is this candidate likely to have the Tory whip at the time of the next leadership contest?’

    Its not just a matter of the Tory whip - even if JRM still had it, had he played a part in bringing down a Tory government the chances of Tory MPs putting him forward would be vanishingly small
  • ITs going to be 5-0.....
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,853
    On the positive side, James Vince appears to be playing well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,664
    edited December 2017

    On the positive side, James Vince appears to be playing well.

    Was....playing well...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516

    On the positive side, James Vince appears to be playing well.

    Spoke too soon there my friend...
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,853
    Sorry!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...

    The actions of England's cricketers off-pitch show they're a bunch of unprofessional idiots. We should just throw in the towel in this series and bring them home in disgrace.
    There's something to be said for bringing them all home and sending out an entirely new squad for the last two dead rubbers. "Just go and get some experience, lads. And try not to get too pissed, eh?"
    Yup! :+1:

    Treat it as an opportunity to develop new talent and to enforce some discipline in the side.

    And fire the selectors the minute this series is over, they’re not fit for purpose.
    A new lot couldn't do worse than the current 100% failure rate. And who knows, some of them might be thankful for the opportunity, dig in - and not flash at balls two feet outside their stumps.
    Absolutely. Select a U21 squad for senior caps and they’d jump at the opportunity.

    There does need to be some serious thinking from the ECB after this series though, this is by no means a decent Australian side but they’ve made us look like complete amateurs.

    The executive team need to consider their own positions, get rid of the lot of them and start from scratch, targeting the 2019 Ashes home series.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Can't remember if I've backed Mogg.

    I think the safest option would be a Hunt-Mordaunt final two.
  • He has the backing of the Tory press on this issue and May does not.

    Not the Mail on Sunday at a guess:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5186797/Britons-Remain-Leave-10-points.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    edited December 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...

    The actions of England's cricketers off-pitch show they're a bunch of unprofessional idiots. We should just throw in the towel in this series and bring them home in disgrace.
    There's something to be said for bringing them all home and sending out an entirely new squad for the last two dead rubbers. "Just go and get some experience, lads. And try not to get too pissed, eh?"
    Yup! :+1:

    Treat it as an opportunity to develop new talent and to enforce some discipline in the side.

    And fire the selectors the minute this series is over, they’re not fit for purpose.
    A new lot couldn't do worse than the current 100% failure rate. And who knows, some of them might be thankful for the opportunity, dig in - and not flash at balls two feet outside their stumps.
    Absolutely. Select a U21 squad for senior caps and they’d jump at the opportunity.

    There does need to be some serious thinking from the ECB after this series though, this is by no means a decent Australian side but they’ve made us look like complete amateurs.

    The executive team need to consider their own positions, get rid of the lot of them and start from scratch, targeting the 2019 Ashes home series.
    The problem is we would (and probably will) win with this team in home conditions. Warner, Bancroft, Khawaja, Marsh and even Smith to a lesser extent are all highly vulnerable to swing. Bancroft would be lucky to average 10 in Tests in an English summer. Meanwhile the softness of our surfaces negates the impact of their pace bowlers, and Lyon gets no spin from them.

    It's the return Ashes we should be targeting.
  • Miss Vance, there's been an oddly stark contrast between the Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday's approach to the entire EU matter, certainly since the vote. Did the Mail on Sunday back Remain beforehand?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,208

    @TSE this is even less likely a scenario as Abbott becoming leader of the Labour Party (and I can't think what idiot would have seeded you that idea...). Mogg is a Tory through and Through, and a popular one. He won't quit. He can't have the whip taken away without May effectively splitting the party. He has the backing of the Tory press on this issue and May does not.

    @Archer101au the only problem with this binary decision point is the practicalities don't work. I know that you dislike that HMRC and the port operators and the food industry and the automotive industry and the aircraft industry and the chemicals industry people have all detailed why hard Brexit WTO would utterly cripple them, but they are the experts in the field and you are not. If as you describe it it's a binary all in or all out decision, the responsible thing for free Trade pro business Tories to advocate would be all in. Yet you do not. Why is that...?

    Because he's a Kipper
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516

    Miss Vance, there's been an oddly stark contrast between the Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday's approach to the entire EU matter, certainly since the vote. Did the Mail on Sunday back Remain beforehand?

    Yes, the MoS were remain campaigners.
  • Mr. Sandpit, cheers. I wonder if their (presumably shared) office was like the episode of Steptoe and Son where they divide the house.
  • Miss Vance, there's been an oddly stark contrast between the Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday's approach to the entire EU matter, certainly since the vote. Did the Mail on Sunday back Remain beforehand?

    And between the Mail on Sunday and their readers, if the comments are anything to go by.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...

    The actions of England's cricketers off-pitch show they're a bunch of unprofessional idiots. We should just throw in the towel in this series and bring them home in disgrace.
    There's something to be said for bringing them all home and sending out an entirely new squad for the last two dead rubbers. "Just go and get some experience, lads. And try not to get too pissed, eh?"
    Yup! :+1:

    Treat it as an opportunity to develop new talent and to enforce some discipline in the side.

    And fire the selectors the minute this series is over, they’re not fit for purpose.
    A new lot couldn't do worse than the current 100% failure rate. And who knows, some of them might be thankful for the opportunity, dig in - and not flash at balls two feet outside their stumps.
    Absolutely. Select a U21 squad for senior caps and they’d jump at the opportunity.

    There does need to be some serious thinking from the ECB after this series though, this is by no means a decent Australian side but they’ve made us look like complete amateurs.

    The executive team need to consider their own positions, get rid of the lot of them and start from scratch, targeting the 2019 Ashes home series.
    The problem is we would (and probably will) win with this team in home conditions. Warner, Bancroft, Khawaja, Marsh and even Smith to a lesser extent are all highly vulnerable to swing. Bancroft would be lucky to average 10 in Tests in an English summer. Meanwhile the softness of our surfaces negates the impact of their pace bowlers, and Lyon gets no spin from them.

    It's the return Ashes we should be targeting.
    I see where you’re coming from but will respectfully disagree. Cook’s average is 18 point something as an opener, and it’s the new blood like Milan who have made the runs this series. Add to the stories of late night excesses, I’m not sure anything but a total clearout and making everyone earn their place again is going to work.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516
    I’m sure it’s been mentioned here before, but BT Sport’s habit of showing uncaptioned replays of earlier wickets in the middle of the current over is really annoying if you’re watching it in the background with the sound down!
  • I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    Sandpit said:

    I see where you’re coming from but will respectfully disagree. Cook’s average is 18 point something as an opener, and it’s the new blood like Milan who have made the runs this series. Add to the stories of late night excesses, I’m not sure anything but a total clearout and making everyone earn their place again is going to work.

    Sorry, I think you've misunderstood. It's not your point I'm disagreeing with but your target. It wouldn't be difficult to win the next Ashes in England. Australia will really struggle in that pretty much whoever we pick, unless we pick Leicestershire Seconds or Middlesex Firsts or some other useless team. Their batsmen have poor defensive techniques and their bowlers are fast but not guileful.

    I am saying therefore that we should build a team capable of winning the Ashes in Australia, which is a more formidable target but therefore likely to build a more formidable team.
  • Sandpit said:

    Bronze medal! What would JRM have done to deserve withdrawal of the whip? He’s not voted against a motion of confidence, and seems no more principled on matters EU than Ken Clarke.

    Do we see in this thread the first positive comment from TSE about Mrs May and her negotiations, by the way?

    He might voluntarily resign the whip by defecting/quiting.
    JRM wouldn't ever do either.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,063
    edited December 2017

    I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
  • Mr. Sandpit, not a cricketist, but the lack of captions does sound unnecessarily stupid.

    Then again, F1 has the halo and about seven dry tyre compounds next year...

    F1: just idly checking odds. Interesting Ladbrokes and Betfair divergence. Vettel and Verstappen are equal, 4.33, on the former, but 3.9 and 7 respectively on the latter.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 18,176
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...

    The actions of England's cricketers off-pitch show they're a bunch of unprofessional idiots. We should just throw in the towel in this series and bring them home in disgrace.
    There's something to be said for bringing them all home and sending out an entirely new squad for the last two dead rubbers. "Just go and get some experience, lads. And try not to get too pissed, eh?"
    Yup! :+1:

    Treat it as an opportunity to develop new talent and to enforce some discipline in the side.

    And fire the selectors the minute this series is over, they’re not fit for purpose.
    A new lot couldn't do worse than the current 100% failure rate. And who knows, some of them might be thankful for the opportunity, dig in - and not flash at balls two feet outside their stumps.
    Absolutely. Select a U21 squad for senior caps and they’d jump at the opportunity.

    There does need to be some serious thinking from the ECB after this series though, this is by no means a decent Australian side but they’ve made us look like complete amateurs.

    The executive team need to consider their own positions, get rid of the lot of them and start from scratch, targeting the 2019 Ashes home series.
    They look amateur because they are unprofessional. And as you say, the people running them don't seem much better.

    The message should be quite simple: you are representing your country, and getting paid well for it. In return, you have to forgo the ability to go out and get pi**ed and act like an ass whilst on tour. And if you do, then you'll get sent home automatically. No second chances.

    Any player who squeals about it should be dropped.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139

    I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    Co-ordination by Boris Johnson?

    That really is a remarkable thought...
  • On topic, I'd have thought that given we'd no longer be a formal member during the transition period that we'd leave both CFP and CAP by March 2019. The two are not associated with the single market, or customs union, and it would also give some latitude to Brexiteers too. I suspect there will be a bit of a battle with the EU about agreeing trade agreements in principle over the next 3 months as well. Given we will be doing so with the EU as a third country, it seems a bit unreasonable to constrain the UK from doing so with other countries, it's just they won't be able to take effect until the conclusion of the transition period.

    Gove will undoubtedly be the furthest advanced on this.
  • I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.

    People who don't vote.....don't vote.....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,305

    I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    It will take a while for the phobes to realise they are back in the minority. We should let them have a transition period for it to sink in.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,830
    Pedant's corner - always worth running thread headers past another pair of eyes. Para 2 above is garbled (isn't=is, and a seriously run-on sentence).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,410
    Anyway, this whole thread seems to have not read the front page of the Sunday Times, from which it is clear that the next leader of the Tory Party will be a toff. Indeed, THE Toff.

    (And she thinks the Moggster is a sex god. What's not to love.?)
  • I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.

    People who don't vote.....don't vote.....
    2017 suggests otherwise.
  • ForlornehopeForlornehope Posts: 5
    edited December 2017
    A problem with JRM4PM is the same as one for JC4PM. It's about the nuclear deterrent thing. JRM makes a big deal of the fact that he's a loyal RC - lot's of kids, no contraception, etc. etc. But, the RC church has a very strong line on the nuclear thing: even the threat to use nukes is "a grave sin". Clearly JRM has questions to answer here; as a Papist can he be trusted to put the nation's security before his own "immortal soul". Someone should ask him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,410

    Pedant's corner - always worth running thread headers past another pair of eyes. Para 2 above is garbled (isn't=is, and a seriously run-on sentence).

    It's not just the sentence that needs another pair of eyes - the sentiment does too!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    Raining in Perth. Not sure for how long, though!
  • I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    It will take a while for the phobes to realise they are back in the minority. We should let them have a transition period for it to sink in.
    During that transition period will they have no say and just have to take whatever is decided without them?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139

    I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.

    People who don't vote.....don't vote.....
    It should be pointed out however that this is one reason why we found suggestions Corbyn might get somewhere in the high 30s even touching 40% of the vote in the election risible. His support was from non-voters. Ergo, he would not get their votes.

    Yet for once, they turned out, and somehow he got to 39.99%.

    One potentially interesting question is whether they will turn out again at the next election. That is what current Labour strategy seems to be assuming, but if it was a personal vote for Corbyn and he doesn't last until the next election that could be up in the air.
  • Mr. Recidivist, I'm sure that describing voters who disagree with you as 'phobes' will prove highly persuasive.

    The key question remains what happens if the Commons votes no. The wet lettuce Grieve claiming he had no idea suggests that some, at least, will be aiming for a revocation and return to the status quo ante (ie remaining in the EU). If we assume unilateral revocation is within the bounds of legality, such a move would be technically legal, but cause enormous ructions democratically.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952

    I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.

    People who don't vote.....don't vote.....
    I thought that was the feature of the 2017 election. People who normally didn’t did, and conversly those who normally do didn’t.
  • I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    I'm surprised Remainers haven't got even more excited over that poll than usual, they usually do - it's driven by non-voters in the 2016 EU referendum. Those that did are still unchanged in their view:

    "“However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.

    “Our polling suggests that about a year ago, those who did not vote in the referendum were broadly split, but today’s poll shows that they are now overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU, by a margin of more than four to one.”
  • Mr. Doethur, I'd be surprised, alas, if Corbyn weren't there at the next election.
  • I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    I'm surprised Remainers haven't got even more excited over that poll than usual, they usually do - it's driven by non-voters in the 2016 EU referendum. Those that did are still unchanged in their view:

    "“However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.

    “Our polling suggests that about a year ago, those who did not vote in the referendum were broadly split, but today’s poll shows that they are now overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU, by a margin of more than four to one.”
    Some previous non-voters chose to vote in the General Election.
  • I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    I'm surprised Remainers haven't got even more excited over that poll than usual, they usually do - it's driven by non-voters in the 2016 EU referendum. Those that did are still unchanged in their view:

    "“However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.

    “Our polling suggests that about a year ago, those who did not vote in the referendum were broadly split, but today’s poll shows that they are now overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU, by a margin of more than four to one.”
    Normally new policies when adopted get a boost in popularity. The opposite has happened to Brexit, it seems.

    Leavers seem wholly uninterested in the implications of following through on a course of action if that has lost popular support.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,305
    edited December 2017

    Mr. Recidivist, I'm sure that describing voters who disagree with you as 'phobes' will prove highly persuasive.

    The key question remains what happens if the Commons votes no. The wet lettuce Grieve claiming he had no idea suggests that some, at least, will be aiming for a revocation and return to the status quo ante (ie remaining in the EU). If we assume unilateral revocation is within the bounds of legality, such a move would be technically legal, but cause enormous ructions democratically.

    Brexiters only works as a name as long as Brexit remains a viable project. I am just starting to get my brain ready for when we get to the stage where it no longer is. But yes you are right. There will be some ructions.
  • I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    It will take a while for the phobes to realise they are back in the minority. We should let them have a transition period for it to sink in.
    This is from one week ago: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/09/for-the-first-time-in-over-a-year-more-people-now-think-the-britain-will-be-better-off-out-of-the-eu-than-remaining/

  • Mr. Recidivist, calling all those who support departing the EU 'phobes' is about as sensible as calling those who support remaining within the EU 'traitors'. It's inaccurate and antagonistic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    edited December 2017

    Mr. Doethur, I'd be surprised, alas, if Corbyn weren't there at the next election.

    He will be 73, and despite his fitness and healthy lifestyle, that is still quite old and a time when natural forces may suddenly assert themselves. Or he could suffer a major scandal in his shadow cabinet. Or he could do something more than usually incompetent such as vote in the wrong division lobby.

    It would also make him the oldest ever first time Prime Minister, ahead of Palmerston who came to power under pretty unusual circumstances that we can safely say will not apply to Corbyn.

    If he is forced to leave, the lack of a clear and plausible successor may cause divisions in the party and particularly on the left to reopen. Considering how divisive he is, his ability to reunite Labour behind him in the last six months is an astonishing achievement. Could Cat Smith or Rebecca Long-Bailey or Yvette Cooper manage it? The question only needs asking to be answered.

    So if he has a big personal vote then Labour is still vulnerable.
  • six out of ten Tory voters now believe she should go all the way and stay on to lead their party into the next general election.
  • I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    I'm surprised Remainers haven't got even more excited over that poll than usual, they usually do - it's driven by non-voters in the 2016 EU referendum. Those that did are still unchanged in their view:

    "“However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.

    “Our polling suggests that about a year ago, those who did not vote in the referendum were broadly split, but today’s poll shows that they are now overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU, by a margin of more than four to one.”
    Normally new policies when adopted get a boost in popularity. The opposite has happened to Brexit, it seems.

    Leavers seem wholly uninterested in the implications of following through on a course of action if that has lost popular support.
    I think you're being a bit selective in your choice of evidence, there. Not something you're usually prone to. The ORB poll (only one week old) showed a very different story.

    So far, the Brexit process has been all about tolerating the costs without being in a position to yield any benefits. It will not be so, in full, for over another 3 years.

    The slightest excuse which Remainers clutch to in order to try and obstruct, frustrate and reverse Brexit explains why Leavers fundamentally distrust them.

    They are rather desperate because they know it's their last chance because, once Brexit is complete, and the new powers become popular, they will have nothing left to cling to.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,728

    I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    I'm surprised Remainers haven't got even more excited over that poll than usual, they usually do - it's driven by non-voters in the 2016 EU referendum. Those that did are still unchanged in their view:

    "“However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.

    “Our polling suggests that about a year ago, those who did not vote in the referendum were broadly split, but today’s poll shows that they are now overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU, by a margin of more than four to one.”
    Perhaps they've finally understood the golden rule of Brexit.
  • What was turnout like among under-30s in the referendum and how does that compare to the GE?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532
    edited December 2017
    The next Tory leadership contest is likely to see 4 wings of candidate, former Remainers eg Rudd and Hunt, Leavers tied to May and any deal eg Davis, Leavers who want to limit any transition but will still accept a deal eg Gove and Boris and hardline Leavers who want no transition period at all and full Brexit from April 2019 even if that means WTO terms eg Rees-Mogg.

    Even if he retains the whip (which he probably will) I don't think Rees-Mogg will actually succeed May, I think that is more likely to be someone from the second and third group who will have more MP support at this stage. However if and when the Tories lose power Rees-Mogg will be in a strong position to take over as leader of the opposition, especially as he is likely to win a big majority in his own seat at the next general election as the candidate of his local Tory association.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    edited December 2017

    What was turnout like among under-30s in the referendum and how does that compare to the GE?

    64% in 2017, up from 60% in 2016, itself hugely up on the 43% that voted in 2015.

    Interestingly, 55-64 was the demographic that dropped significantly, from 80% to 72%.

    Figures are here:
    https://www.ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f

    Or Google
    'Youth turnout at general election highest in 25 years, data show' [sic]
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,948
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...

    The actions of England's cricketers off-pitch show they're a bunch of unprofessional idiots. We should just throw in the towel in this series and bring them home in disgrace.
    There's something to be said for bringing them all home and sending out an entirely new squad for the last two dead rubbers. "Just go and get some experience, lads. And try not to get too pissed, eh?"
    Yup! :+1:

    Treat it as an opportunity to develop new talent and to enforce some discipline in the side.

    And fire the selectors the minute this series is over, they’re not fit for purpose.
    A new lot couldn't do worse than the current 100% failure rate. And who knows, some of them might be thankful for the opportunity, dig in - and not flash at balls two feet outside their stumps.
    Absolutely. Select a U21 squad for senior caps and they’d jump at the opportunity.

    There does need to be some serious thinking from the ECB after this series though, this is by no means a decent Australian side but they’ve made us look like complete amateurs.

    The executive team need to consider their own positions, get rid of the lot of them and start from scratch, targeting the 2019 Ashes home series.
    So the PB consensus is that we retain to the miserablist discipline of Andy Flower, and the random selection policies of the 80s/90s, and hope for the best ?
    Not convinced.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    edited December 2017
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...

    The actions of England's cricketers off-pitch show they're a bunch of unprofessional idiots. We should just throw in the towel in this series and bring them home in disgrace.
    There's something to be said for bringing them all home and sending out an entirely new squad for the last two dead rubbers. "Just go and get some experience, lads. And try not to get too pissed, eh?"
    Yup! :+1:

    Treat it as an opportunity to develop new talent and to enforce some discipline in the side.

    And fire the selectors the minute this series is over, they’re not fit for purpose.
    A new lot couldn't do worse than the current 100% failure rate. And who knows, some of them might be thankful for the opportunity, dig in - and not flash at balls two feet outside their stumps.
    Absolutely. Select a U21 squad for senior caps and they’d jump at the opportunity.

    There does need to be some serious thinking from the ECB after this series though, this is by no means a decent Australian side but they’ve made us look like complete amateurs.

    The executive team need to consider their own positions, get rid of the lot of them and start from scratch, targeting the 2019 Ashes home series.
    So the PB consensus is that we retain to the miserablist discipline of Andy Flower, and the random selection policies of the 80s/90s, and hope for the best ?
    Not convinced.
    Flower did deliver the only Ashes away win for either side of the last 16 years, and our only away win in the last 30, not to mention the only non-whitewash of the last four tours.

    While his management style had flaws and deteriorated towards the end, you cannot say it didn't have its successes too.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,027
    Trump is totally going to try and fire Mueller.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,038

    A problem with JRM4PM is the same as one for JC4PM. It's about the nuclear deterrent thing. JRM makes a big deal of the fact that he's a loyal RC - lot's of kids, no contraception, etc. etc. But, the RC church has a very strong line on the nuclear thing: even the threat to use nukes is "a grave sin". Clearly JRM has questions to answer here; as a Papist can he be trusted to put the nation's security before his own "immortal soul". Someone should ask him.

    The First Epistle of Peter will be his response.

    It is said of earthly power that he bears not the sword in vain: for he is God's minister, an avenger to execute wrath upon him that does evil.
  • @Josias etc

    Firing the selectors would be a good idea if only because it would enable us to see who they actually are.

    The ECB seems to dislike the idea of a single 'manager'. The only explanation I have ever seen for this is that it is too similar to what happens in football. No, I don't follow that logic either but then neither the ECB nor the selectors, whoever they may be, are much inclined to explain themselves.

    Some of their selections have been bizarre, yet nobody stands before a camera and explains why, for example, the squad included Hampshire's second best spin bowler as England's number one (and then didn't play him.) There may have been a very good reason, but we don't get to hear it.

    And just who does pick the team? I follow cricket closer than most but I'm not sure. My best guess is that it's a committee, with different views weighing heavier at different times. I think Bayliss is prominent, as is whittaker. Strauss is in their somewhere, as is Angus Fraser as some sort of bowling adviser. I hear rumours of Kevin Pietersen's involvement, which sounds improbable until you note the selection of Hampshire spinners with thin credentials (Dawson and Crane). The uncertainty about who is charge leads to the suspicion that it's an incoherent preocess in which no individual can be easily held to account for failure. Certainly England's selection process has been characterised by incoherence for a couple of years now.

    The pity is that we have the basis of a good team, world-class even. Eight of the players pick themselves because they are obviously up to Test standard. So being an England selector amounts to finding three more players, and a few reserves. How difficult can that be?

    If the players aren't there, they can't be blamed but picking implausible candidates - Dawson and Jennings for example - whilst turning your back on players with some sort of Test credentials (the likes of Rashid, Hales and Buttler) isn't going to help.

    I thought we had a bit of a squeak in Australia, even though we plainly did not take the best squad. I was wrong. The gulf between the two sides is huge. It would still have been huge if we had taken our best. But at least we would have known then that the problem lay in the shortcomings of our domestic game and the lack of suitable talent it produces, rather than being left pondering what might have happened if we had a coherent and intelligent selection process.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,598
    edited December 2017

    I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    I'm surprised Remainers haven't got even more excited over that poll than usual, they usually do - it's driven by non-voters in the 2016 EU referendum. Those that did are still unchanged in their view:

    "“However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.

    “Our polling suggests that about a year ago, those who did not vote in the referendum were broadly split, but today’s poll shows that they are now overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU, by a margin of more than four to one.”
    Some previous non-voters chose to vote in the General Election.
    Indeed, some did - as did many in the EU referendum as well - but one shouldn't lose perspective: EU referendum turnout was over 72%, above the GE2017 turnout of 68.8%. And, that in turn wasn't much higher than the GE15 turnout of 66.4%, or the GE10 of 65.1%.

    These things can be overplayed.

    I suppose it's possible that you could get turnout in a 2nd EU referendum even higher, to, say, 85%, and have all those new voters break heavily for Remain, but - learning another lesson of GE2017 - current polling is theoretical and based on the abstract.

    If a 2nd referendum campaign were actually called, and the real terms of Remain became clear, versus the emerging shape of the deal to Leave, with both positions tested via the stress of a national campaign, I'd be very nervous as a Remainer running with those numbers. Very, very few of those who did vote last time have changed their minds.

    If it failed, I suppose Remainers could ask for a 3rd one..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532
    edited December 2017

    A problem with JRM4PM is the same as one for JC4PM. It's about the nuclear deterrent thing. JRM makes a big deal of the fact that he's a loyal RC - lot's of kids, no contraception, etc. etc. But, the RC church has a very strong line on the nuclear thing: even the threat to use nukes is "a grave sin". Clearly JRM has questions to answer here; as a Papist can he be trusted to put the nation's security before his own "immortal soul". Someone should ask him.

    Does it? JFK was a Catholic and while he tried to avoid nuclear war wherever possible, see the Cuban Missile Crisis, he was committed to the nuclear deterrent and I don't believe the Pope ever attacked him for it. His personal life also took a rather more liberal interpretation of Catholic doctrine than JRM's does. (Most French presidents are Catholic of course too and France also has nuclear weapons).
  • Regarding the Moggmeister or Jezbollah and the big red button - does it matter? Even in a nuclear war the role of our Trident submarines is to sit nice and deep and quiet whilst the world gets nuked. SLBMs only get deployed under SIOP as a second strike weapon.

    So what do their views matter? It's their letter to the sub commander that's relevant, and past PMs have confessed to accepting that if the letter is read "we've already lost and what's the point "
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,038



    If it failed, I suppose Remainers could ask for a 3rd one..

    Petit a petit, l’oiseau fait son nid.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532

    six out of ten Tory voters now believe she should go all the way and stay on to lead their party into the next general election.
    46% of voters as a whole want May to stay PM until the next general election, 38% to leave by the end of Brexit talks at the latest. However only 35% actually want May to fight the next general election as Tory leader and PM.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5156114/theresa-may-brexit-poll-support-conservative-party/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516
    Play abandoned for the day in Perth. Pray for a downpour tomorrow!
  • Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    And Nathan Lyon strikes again. 60/3. Discussing the merits of Brexit with Nick Clegg would be more fun than watching this...

    The actions of England's cricketers off-pitch show they're a bunch of unprofessional idiots. We should just throw in the towel in this series and bring them home in disgrace.
    There's something to be said for bringing them all home and sending out an entirely new squad for the last two dead rubbers. "Just go and get some experience, lads. And try not to get too pissed, eh?"
    Yup! :+1:

    Treat it as an opportunity to develop new talent and to enforce some discipline in the side.

    And fire the selectors the minute this series is over, they’re not fit for purpose.
    A new lot couldn't do worse than the current 100% failure rate. And who knows, some of them might be thankful for the opportunity, dig in - and not flash at balls two feet outside their stumps.
    Absolutely. Select a U21 squad for senior caps and they’d jump at the opportunity.

    There does need to be some serious thinking from the ECB after this series though, this is by no means a decent Australian side but they’ve made us look like complete amateurs.

    The executive team need to consider their own positions, get rid of the lot of them and start from scratch, targeting the 2019 Ashes home series.
    So the PB consensus is that we retain to the miserablist discipline of Andy Flower, and the random selection policies of the 80s/90s, and hope for the best ?
    Not convinced.
    I'd keep it simple. Put Strauss in charge and tell him he and the Captain are resposible for picking the best team. Lose, and you're fired.

    Works like that in most sports.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519
    Dura_Ace said:

    A problem with JRM4PM is the same as one for JC4PM. It's about the nuclear deterrent thing. JRM makes a big deal of the fact that he's a loyal RC - lot's of kids, no contraception, etc. etc. But, the RC church has a very strong line on the nuclear thing: even the threat to use nukes is "a grave sin". Clearly JRM has questions to answer here; as a Papist can he be trusted to put the nation's security before his own "immortal soul". Someone should ask him.

    The First Epistle of Peter will be his response.

    It is said of earthly power that he bears not the sword in vain: for he is God's minister, an avenger to execute wrath upon him that does evil.
    Elisha had she-bears kill 42 naughty children, so it should not be a problem.
  • HYUFD said:

    six out of ten Tory voters now believe she should go all the way and stay on to lead their party into the next general election.
    46% of voters as a whole want May to stay PM until the next general election, 38% to leave by the end of Brexit talks at the latest. However only 35% actually want May to fight the next general election as Tory leader and PM.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5156114/theresa-may-brexit-poll-support-conservative-party/
    And 48% want her to just get on with Brexit, versus only 27% who want a 2nd referendum or the 16% who want Brexit abandoned.
  • Dura_Ace said:



    If it failed, I suppose Remainers could ask for a 3rd one..

    Petit a petit, l’oiseau fait son nid.
    That argument works both ways.
  • Had dinner with the chair of a big Labour CLP last night. Fascinating stuff. I wish I could share the insights. Labour is in deep trouble if what I was told is representative.
  • Very conflicting data from the polls.

    There is a bounce for May, but not for the Tories.

    We are more optimistic about the economics of Brexit, but increasingly turning against it. (In fact, there hasn’t been a majority in favour of Brexit since Feb 17).
  • Had dinner with the chair of a big Labour CLP last night. Fascinating stuff. I wish I could share the insights. Labour is in deep trouble if what I was told is representative.

    Can you say if the deep trouble is internal or external ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532

    HYUFD said:

    six out of ten Tory voters now believe she should go all the way and stay on to lead their party into the next general election.
    46% of voters as a whole want May to stay PM until the next general election, 38% to leave by the end of Brexit talks at the latest. However only 35% actually want May to fight the next general election as Tory leader and PM.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5156114/theresa-may-brexit-poll-support-conservative-party/
    And 48% want her to just get on with Brexit, versus only 27% who want a 2nd referendum or the 16% who want Brexit abandoned.
    Indeed, 54% trust May to get the best Brexit deal for Britain, 34% Corbyn and 12% Cable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532
    Abbott on Marr confirms Labour remains opposed to a second EU referendum
  • Had dinner with the chair of a big Labour CLP last night. Fascinating stuff. I wish I could share the insights. Labour is in deep trouble if what I was told is representative.

    Is this related to what Jonathan was describing in Sussex about an internal neo-marxist takeover? Or, at least, new members openly enthusing about marxism?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,948

    @Josias etc

    Firing the selectors would be a good idea if only because it would enable us to see who they actually are...

    Some of their selections have been bizarre, yet nobody stands before a camera and explains why, for example, the squad included Hampshire's second best spin bowler as England's number one (and then didn't play him.) There may have been a very good reason, but we don't get to hear it.

    And just who does pick the team? I follow cricket closer than most but I'm not sure. My best guess is that it's a committee, with different views weighing heavier at different times. I think Bayliss is prominent, as is whittaker. Strauss is in their somewhere, as is Angus Fraser as some sort of bowling adviser. I hear rumours of Kevin Pietersen's involvement, which sounds improbable until you note the selection of Hampshire spinners with thin credentials (Dawson and Crane). The uncertainty about who is charge leads to the suspicion that it's an incoherent preocess in which no individual can be easily held to account for failure. Certainly England's selection process has been characterised by incoherence for a couple of years now.

    The pity is that we have the basis of a good team, world-class even. Eight of the players pick themselves because they are obviously up to Test standard. So being an England selector amounts to finding three more players, and a few reserves. How difficult can that be?

    If the players aren't there, they can't be blamed but picking implausible candidates - Dawson and Jennings for example - whilst turning your back on players with some sort of Test credentials (the likes of Rashid, Hales and Buttler) isn't going to help.

    I thought we had a bit of a squeak in Australia, even though we plainly did not take the best squad. I was wrong. The gulf between the two sides is huge. It would still have been huge if we had taken our best. But at least we would have known then that the problem lay in the shortcomings of our domestic game and the lack of suitable talent it produces, rather than being left pondering what might have happened if we had a coherent and intelligent selection process.

    I agree with much of that, though I'm not convinced the gap between in two sides is so massive, except perhaps in our bowling (and certainly is Australian conditions). They have a test class spinner, while we have a useful all rounder; they have three bowlers fast enough to trouble batsmen on the truest of wickets, while we have none.

    Cook apparently having reached the end of his career hasn't helped, but who was suggesting he be dropped in advance of the tour ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519

    I see Boris is also using the “vassal state” phrase, as JRM does in the interview. Does this signal some co-ordination by the hard Brexit faction?

    No, it indicates a shared world view.

    Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
    I'm surprised Remainers haven't got even more excited over that poll than usual, they usually do - it's driven by non-voters in the 2016 EU referendum. Those that did are still unchanged in their view:

    "“However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.

    “Our polling suggests that about a year ago, those who did not vote in the referendum were broadly split, but today’s poll shows that they are now overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU, by a margin of more than four to one.”
    Normally new policies when adopted get a boost in popularity. The opposite has happened to Brexit, it seems.

    Leavers seem wholly uninterested in the implications of following through on a course of action if that has lost popular support.
    I think you're being a bit selective in your choice of evidence, there. Not something you're usually prone to. The ORB poll (only one week old) showed a very different story.

    So far, the Brexit process has been all about tolerating the costs without being in a position to yield any benefits. It will not be so, in full, for over another 3 years.

    The slightest excuse which Remainers clutch to in order to try and obstruct, frustrate and reverse Brexit explains why Leavers fundamentally distrust them.

    They are rather desperate because they know it's their last chance because, once Brexit is complete, and the new powers become popular, they will have nothing left to cling to.
    BMG's final poll in the campaign had Remain 6.6% ahead.
This discussion has been closed.