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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Let us salute Theresa May – the “dead woman walking” who could

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Let us salute Theresa May – the “dead woman walking” who could still be there at the next general election

We all remember the events June 9th the day after the general election as it became apparent that Theresa May’s huge gamble in going to the country earlier to get a big bigger majority was going to end in failure.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,267
    edited December 2017
    First!

    For a while yet, certainly.

    Fighting the next GE, certainly not. Even Tories aren't that stupid.

    Put me down for 2020.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 61,058
    edited December 2017
    Let us do no such damn thing.

    She's not as crap as she was but she's still crap,
  • Theresa May is the very definition of faute de mieux.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,095
    edited December 2017
    She won't fight 2022 as leader. I've been told that by more than one MP (including one in the whips office).

    The enormous difference between her and Brown is that the Labour rules and culture are designed to keep a leader in place; the Tory ones are designed to make a change swiftly and easily.

    It'll be summer 2019 or summer 2021.
  • I have a bet with JohnO of this parish that Mrs May will be gone by the Summer 2018 recess.

    I think I'm going to lose this bet.
  • As someone not particularly enamoured with May, I do have to praise her tenacity. A tough job in tough circumstances.
  • She won't fight 2022 as leader. I've been told that by more than one MP (including one in the whips office).

    The enormous difference between her and Brown is that the Labour rules and culture are designed to keep a leader in place; the Tory ones are designed to make a change swiftly and easily.

    It'll be summer 2019 or summer 2021.

    Lots of MPs said Osborne was inevitable too. I tend to agree with you but it would look strange to force someone out in 2021 for their failings in 2017, if their reputation had recovered by that point.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    New threads aplenty today. Conservatives need fresh blood.

    But, and it's a big but, whoever is new has to be an improvement. Clearing away dead wood so young guns have a chance is vital. Otherwise they'll end up with something like Hammond versus Boris.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,642
    edited December 2017
    O/T

    Interesting what you find in the archives — this is SeanT's old blog from 2004:

    http://toffeewomble.blogspot.co.uk/2004/11/
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    New threads aplenty today. Conservatives need fresh blood.

    But, and it's a big but, whoever is new has to be an improvement. Clearing away dead wood so young guns have a chance is vital. Otherwise they'll end up with something like Hammond versus Boris.

    Keep an eye on Johnny Mercer
  • If she promotes Johnny Mercer I'll become Theresa May's biggest cheerleader


    Veteran Tory party chairman Patrick McLoughlin is one of several ‘old guard’ Cabinet ministers who face the sack in the long-planned reshuffle to free up space for younger blood.

    Education Secretary Justine Greening, Northern Ireland Secretary James Brokenshire and Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom are also said to be vulnerable after disappointing No10.

    Mid-ranking ministers tipped for a Cabinet promotion include universities boss Jo Johnson, justice minister Dominic Raab and security chief Ben Wallace.

    Among the younger rising stars tipped for promotion into the government are backbench MPs Tom Tugendhat, Seema Kennedy, Johnny Mercer, Nigel Huddleston and Kemi Badenoch.


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5159749/theresa-mays-allies-urge-her-to-delay-holding-cabinet-reshuffle-to-may-after-ending-year-on-unexpected-high/
  • Michael Gove and Ben Wallace around the same cabinet table will be fun.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,220

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    New threads aplenty today. Conservatives need fresh blood.

    But, and it's a big but, whoever is new has to be an improvement. Clearing away dead wood so young guns have a chance is vital. Otherwise they'll end up with something like Hammond versus Boris.

    I’m sure I’m over thinking this but what’s the process whereby yesterday’s young guns (presumably made of some kind of metal) become today’s dead wood?
  • She won't fight 2022 as leader. I've been told that by more than one MP (including one in the whips office).

    The enormous difference between her and Brown is that the Labour rules and culture are designed to keep a leader in place; the Tory ones are designed to make a change swiftly and easily.

    It'll be summer 2019 or summer 2021.

    Lots of MPs said Osborne was inevitable too. I tend to agree with you but it would look strange to force someone out in 2021 for their failings in 2017, if their reputation had recovered by that point.
    You may be right. However, I very much doubt that May's reputation will recover. She is who she is and she is what she is: a conscientious, hardworking details minister. She's also not what she's not: an inspiring leader, a man-manager or a political tactician. She's too defensive and too introverted. Brexit is a process to which she's largely suited to. She's not overly ideological and is highly pragmatic. Further, there's no obvious alternative who'd be better at it.

    For those reasons, and also because even a leadership election that produced a positive change would take two months out of the process, I don't expect a change before 2019 and quite possibly before the second round is complete in 2021. But as MPs look towards the impending election, I expect change to come, one way or another.

    After all, while May might be best-suited to Brexit, nothing she can do on it is going to cover her in glory: it isn't a glorious fight and even the best outcome will still be a bit crap: it won't be a launchpad for an election campaign.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,859
    @bbclaurak: May implying govt will try to leave Common Fisheries Police and Common Agricultural Policy during transition - won't be easy... EU view is transition is absolutely sticking to status quo, UK view is sticking more or less to status quo - first big fight of next year
  • Mr. Polruan, for small guns, the stock can be wooden. For large ones, the wheels are.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,220

    She won't fight 2022 as leader. I've been told that by more than one MP (including one in the whips office).

    The enormous difference between her and Brown is that the Labour rules and culture are designed to keep a leader in place; the Tory ones are designed to make a change swiftly and easily.

    It'll be summer 2019 or summer 2021.

    Lots of MPs said Osborne was inevitable too. I tend to agree with you but it would look strange to force someone out in 2021 for their failings in 2017, if their reputation had recovered by that point.
    You may be right. However, I very much doubt that May's reputation will recover. She is who she is and she is what she is: a conscientious, hardworking details minister. She's also not what she's not: an inspiring leader, a man-manager or a political tactician. She's too defensive and too introverted. Brexit is a process to which she's largely suited to. She's not overly ideological and is highly pragmatic. Further, there's no obvious alternative who'd be better at it.

    For those reasons, and also because even a leadership election that produced a positive change would take two months out of the process, I don't expect a change before 2019 and quite possibly before the second round is complete in 2021. But as MPs look towards the impending election, I expect change to come, one way or another.

    After all, while May might be best-suited to Brexit, nothing she can do on it is going to cover her in glory: it isn't a glorious fight and even the best outcome will still be a bit crap: it won't be a launchpad for an election campaign.
    She could face down her party and go for a second referendum on remain vs eea vs Canada plus. That would be a good launchpad for a GE campaign against a Labour Party that could never be whipped into line to adopt a more eurosceptic position than the Tories.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,220

    Mr. Polruan, for small guns, the stock can be wooden. For large ones, the wheels are.

    Good recovery :)

    Easier than explaining how the old guard are obstructing the green shoots I guess.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,156
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: May implying govt will try to leave Common Fisheries Police and Common Agricultural Policy during transition - won't be easy... EU view is transition is absolutely sticking to status quo, UK view is sticking more or less to status quo - first big fight of next year

    And it will be no more successful than the first big fight of last year over the sequencing of negotiations. The UK will huff and puff and then fold.
  • Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: May implying govt will try to leave Common Fisheries Police and Common Agricultural Policy during transition - won't be easy... EU view is transition is absolutely sticking to status quo, UK view is sticking more or less to status quo - first big fight of next year

    And it will be no more successful than the first big fight of last year over the sequencing of negotiations. The UK will huff and puff and then fold.
    The EEA aren't in CAP or CFP so it ought to be possible to agree an EEA-style transition.
  • "...the Brexit cabinet sub-committee holds its first talks today on the sort of relationship Britain wants after leaving the EU."

    Shouldn't they have held this meeting the day after May took office?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,910
    What this administration really needs is an Osborne. Not necessarily that Osborne, although they could do worse, but a driving force that at least attempts to bring the various departments together as a vaguely coherent whole.

    May seems to have no great ability in that regard, Hammond has been undermined by May to such an extent that the Treasury is no longer the overarching power that it was under both Brown and Osborne and Green, although notionally the DPM, seems to have no form of grip as well as being on a shoogly peg himself.

    The person in that role is inevitably the first in line for succession (with the possible exception of Willie Whitelaw). Without it Mrs May's position is probably more secure but her government seems aimless and incoherent. If she is to do more than survive and deal with Brexit she really needs an enforcer that cracks the whip and keeps people in line.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,948
    Let us not forget that there is a public appetite for zombies - The Walking Dead has lasted for eight interminable seasons....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,416
    DavidL said:

    What this administration really needs is an Osborne. Not necessarily that Osborne, although they could do worse, but a driving force that at least attempts to bring the various departments together as a vaguely coherent whole.

    May seems to have no great ability in that regard, Hammond has been undermined by May to such an extent that the Treasury is no longer the overarching power that it was under both Brown and Osborne and Green, although notionally the DPM, seems to have no form of grip as well as being on a shoogly peg himself.

    The person in that role is inevitably the first in line for succession (with the possible exception of Willie Whitelaw). Without it Mrs May's position is probably more secure but her government seems aimless and incoherent. If she is to do more than survive and deal with Brexit she really needs an enforcer that cracks the whip and keeps people in line.

    Yes, it definitely does. Even if Hammond hadn't been undermined he wouldn't be a good choice. He is the political equivalent of David Moyes. No imagination, no creativity, just boring. I don't know which MP could serve the role though.
  • DavidL said:

    What this administration really needs is an Osborne. Not necessarily that Osborne, although they could do worse, but a driving force that at least attempts to bring the various departments together as a vaguely coherent whole.

    May seems to have no great ability in that regard, Hammond has been undermined by May to such an extent that the Treasury is no longer the overarching power that it was under both Brown and Osborne and Green, although notionally the DPM, seems to have no form of grip as well as being on a shoogly peg himself.

    The person in that role is inevitably the first in line for succession (with the possible exception of Willie Whitelaw). Without it Mrs May's position is probably more secure but her government seems aimless and incoherent. If she is to do more than survive and deal with Brexit she really needs an enforcer that cracks the whip and keeps people in line.

    Indeed people keep having a go at Boris for repeating the type of Brexit he invisions (the type of Brexit Vote Leave pushed for) but there is a vacuum at the top. Unless or until the cabinet agrees a new position its not unreasonable for the Foreign Secretary to repeat the Vote Leave position that won the referendum.

    It's May's fault that there's a vacuum. She could and should have thrashed out at least a vision by now that the Foreign Secretary could either agree with or not but once agreed collective responsibility should take hold.
  • Mr. B, not watched for a while, due to lack of free-to-air transmission, but Maggie was delightful.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,207

    Theresa May is the very definition of faute de mieux.

    Surely Apres moi, le deluge?
  • It wouldn't suprise me if she voluntarily anounced her retirement six months before the GE with effecive date at start of the GE campaign. That allows a full leadership election process. The winner will carry momentum into GE but will not have long enough to mess things up - in fact they wouldn't take over as leader until parliament is dissolved.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,220

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: May implying govt will try to leave Common Fisheries Police and Common Agricultural Policy during transition - won't be easy... EU view is transition is absolutely sticking to status quo, UK view is sticking more or less to status quo - first big fight of next year

    And it will be no more successful than the first big fight of last year over the sequencing of negotiations. The UK will huff and puff and then fold.
    The EEA aren't in CAP or CFP so it ought to be possible to agree an EEA-style transition.
    The point of the transition (as I understand it) is to be agreed quickly in order to provide certainty rather than cliff-edge uncertainty - if something bespoke can be agreed that may as well be the end state rather than a transition which would mean two changes in 2-3 years.
  • Awkward....

    twitter.com/willblackwriter/status/942729294845014016

    I don't suppose Nick knew who she was when she asked him for a selfie, and surely you're not insinuating that he did?
  • Polruan said:

    She won't fight 2022 as leader. I've been told that by more than one MP (including one in the whips office).

    The enormous difference between her and Brown is that the Labour rules and culture are designed to keep a leader in place; the Tory ones are designed to make a change swiftly and easily.

    It'll be summer 2019 or summer 2021.

    Lots of MPs said Osborne was inevitable too. I tend to agree with you but it would look strange to force someone out in 2021 for their failings in 2017, if their reputation had recovered by that point.
    You may be right. However, I very much doubt that May's reputation will recover. She is who she is and she is what she is: a conscientious, hardworking details minister. She's also not what she's not: an inspiring leader, a man-manager or a political tactician. She's too defensive and too introverted. Brexit is a process to which she's largely suited to. She's not overly ideological and is highly pragmatic. Further, there's no obvious alternative who'd be better at it.

    For those reasons, and also because even a leadership election that produced a positive change would take two months out of the process, I don't expect a change before 2019 and quite possibly before the second round is complete in 2021. But as MPs look towards the impending election, I expect change to come, one way or another.

    After all, while May might be best-suited to Brexit, nothing she can do on it is going to cover her in glory: it isn't a glorious fight and even the best outcome will still be a bit crap: it won't be a launchpad for an election campaign.
    She could face down her party and go for a second referendum on remain vs eea vs Canada plus. That would be a good launchpad for a GE campaign against a Labour Party that could never be whipped into line to adopt a more eurosceptic position than the Tories.
    That's an interesting suggestion but not really one that I could agree with.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,320
    edited December 2017

    Awkward....

    twitter.com/willblackwriter/status/942729294845014016

    I don't suppose Nick knew who she was when she asked him for a selfie, and surely you're not insinuating that he did?
    and @Philip_Thompson
    I don’t think saying that Nick Robinson posing in a selfie with what we know to be the deputy leader of Britain First is ‘awkward’ is a particularly controversial statement, in fact I’d have thought it was fairly obvious that such a picture is a bit awkward. I doubt that he knew who she was. Given that he was political editor for the BBC for god knows how long though, I’m surprised that he wasn’t aware about far right groups such as Britain First.

  • Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: May implying govt will try to leave Common Fisheries Police and Common Agricultural Policy during transition - won't be easy... EU view is transition is absolutely sticking to status quo, UK view is sticking more or less to status quo - first big fight of next year

    And it will be no more successful than the first big fight of last year over the sequencing of negotiations. The UK will huff and puff and then fold.
    The EEA aren't in CAP or CFP so it ought to be possible to agree an EEA-style transition.
    The point of the transition (as I understand it) is to be agreed quickly in order to provide certainty rather than cliff-edge uncertainty - if something bespoke can be agreed that may as well be the end state rather than a transition which would mean two changes in 2-3 years.

    Indeed - it is not a transition deal unless you are transitioning to something.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,607
    edited December 2017

    Awkward....

    twitter.com/willblackwriter/status/942729294845014016

    I don't suppose Nick knew who she was when she asked him for a selfie, and surely you're not insinuating that he did?
    and @Philip_Thompson
    I don’t think saying that Nick Robinson posing in a selfie with what we know to be the deputy leader of Britain First is ‘awkward’ is a particularly controversial statement, in fact I’d have thought it was fairly obvious that such a picture is a bit awkward. I doubt that he knew who she was. Given that he was political editor of the BBC for god knows how long though, I’m surprised that he wasn’t aware about far right groups such as Britain First.

    As it appears he was at a Rochester election, and as a broadcaster, you would think he would have done a little background research to see who the candidates were, maybe even look at literature they had disseminated including photographic representation of the facial characteristics of said candidates.

    The fact that the lady was wearing a great big badge emblazoned with the word candidate, you would think that the hack from the local rag would be able to work out who she was. I think it says more about slipshop working practice by Robinson than anything else.

    If it was done around the time of the onset of his illness, I forgive him. Otherwise he should have known who she was or had the ability to work it out - the information was laid out in front of him.
  • Kevin Schofield:

    Unite bosses believe the only way to avoid large-scale job losses for their members is for the UK to remain in both the single market and customs union permanently after Brexit. Labour are not there at the moment, but Corbyn and his team will soon be lobbied hard to make it official party policy. One senior Union source said: "We're going to come to a crunch point next year. The TUC are also going to put a lot of pressure on." The tensions throw up the tantalising possibility of the first major split between Unite general secretary Len McCluskey and his long-term comrade, Corbyn.

    But those hoping for a change of heart in Labour's high command may have their work cut out. As well as having to overcome the party leader's well-known euroscepticism, they also must convince him that such a seismic shift in policy will not cost votes in its Leave-voting northern heartlands. Either way, the relatively easy ride which Labour has enjoyed while the Conservative civil war has been in full swing will shortly come to an end.


    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/analysis/91540/analysis-tories-are-split-brexit-labours
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,267
    Suddenly everyone is talking about the forthcoming referendum...
  • Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: May implying govt will try to leave Common Fisheries Police and Common Agricultural Policy during transition - won't be easy... EU view is transition is absolutely sticking to status quo, UK view is sticking more or less to status quo - first big fight of next year

    And it will be no more successful than the first big fight of last year over the sequencing of negotiations. The UK will huff and puff and then fold.
    The EEA aren't in CAP or CFP so it ought to be possible to agree an EEA-style transition.
    The point of the transition (as I understand it) is to be agreed quickly in order to provide certainty rather than cliff-edge uncertainty - if something bespoke can be agreed that may as well be the end state rather than a transition which would mean two changes in 2-3 years.

    Indeed - it is not a transition deal unless you are transitioning to something.

    And it is only just today that the government has started to think about what they want to transition to.

    Tell you what - try transitioning to opposition and give Jezza a chance.
  • philiph said:

    Awkward....

    twitter.com/willblackwriter/status/942729294845014016

    I don't suppose Nick knew who she was when she asked him for a selfie, and surely you're not insinuating that he did?
    and @Philip_Thompson
    I don’t think saying that Nick Robinson posing in a selfie with what we know to be the deputy leader of Britain First is ‘awkward’ is a particularly controversial statement, in fact I’d have thought it was fairly obvious that such a picture is a bit awkward. I doubt that he knew who she was. Given that he was political editor of the BBC for god knows how long though, I’m surprised that he wasn’t aware about far right groups such as Britain First.

    As it appears he was at a Rochester election, and a broadcaster, you would think he would have done a little background research to see who the candidates were, maybe even look at literature they had disseminated including photographic representation of the facial characteristics of said candidates.

    The fact that the lady was wearing a great big badge emblazoned with the word candidate, you would think that the hack from the local rag would be able to work out who she was. I think it says more about slipshop working practice by Robinson than anything else.

    If it was done around the time of the onset of his illness, I forgive him. Otherwise he should have known who she was or had the ability to work it out - the information was laid out in front of him.
    Surely a far-right candidate ought to find it embarrassing having been caught posing for a selfie with a BBC journo?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,267

    She won't fight 2022 as leader. I've been told that by more than one MP (including one in the whips office).

    The enormous difference between her and Brown is that the Labour rules and culture are designed to keep a leader in place; the Tory ones are designed to make a change swiftly and easily.

    It'll be summer 2019 or summer 2021.

    Lots of MPs said Osborne was inevitable too. I tend to agree with you but it would look strange to force someone out in 2021 for their failings in 2017, if their reputation had recovered by that point.
    You may be right. However, I very much doubt that May's reputation will recover. She is who she is and she is what she is: a conscientious, hardworking details minister. She's also not what she's not: an inspiring leader, a man-manager or a political tactician. She's too defensive and too introverted. Brexit is a process to which she's largely suited to. She's not overly ideological and is highly pragmatic. Further, there's no obvious alternative who'd be better at it.

    For those reasons, and also because even a leadership election that produced a positive change would take two months out of the process, I don't expect a change before 2019 and quite possibly before the second round is complete in 2021. But as MPs look towards the impending election, I expect change to come, one way or another.

    After all, while May might be best-suited to Brexit, nothing she can do on it is going to cover her in glory: it isn't a glorious fight and even the best outcome will still be a bit crap: it won't be a launchpad for an election campaign.
    To summarise, no-one with the muck of Brexit on their hands is ever going to come out of this smelling of roses....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,259
    edited December 2017
    Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: May implying govt will try to leave Common Fisheries Police and Common Agricultural Policy during transition - won't be easy... EU view is transition is absolutely sticking to status quo, UK view is sticking more or less to status quo - first big fight of next year

    And it will be no more successful than the first big fight of last year over the sequencing of negotiations. The UK will huff and puff and then fold.
    The EEA aren't in CAP or CFP so it ought to be possible to agree an EEA-style transition.
    The point of the transition (as I understand it) is to be agreed quickly in order to provide certainty rather than cliff-edge uncertainty - if something bespoke can be agreed that may as well be the end state rather than a transition which would mean two changes in 2-3 years.
    If we wanted EEA as an end-state then we wouldn't need a transition, we'd simply move from EU to EEA and that would be that.

    EEA-style as a transition is something that could be quickly agreed - it has pre-existing and pre-defined rules, rights and responsibilities. That wouldn't make it an end-state.

    EEA-as-transition has other advantages in smoothing out us detangling ourselves from the EU and as a simplified way of addressing the fact we'll have EEA-rules without EU-voting rights.
  • philiph said:

    Awkward....

    twitter.com/willblackwriter/status/942729294845014016

    I don't suppose Nick knew who she was when she asked him for a selfie, and surely you're not insinuating that he did?
    and @Philip_Thompson
    I don’t think saying that Nick Robinson posing in a selfie with what we know to be the deputy leader of Britain First is ‘awkward’ is a particularly controversial statement, in fact I’d have thought it was fairly obvious that such a picture is a bit awkward. I doubt that he knew who she was. Given that he was political editor of the BBC for god knows how long though, I’m surprised that he wasn’t aware about far right groups such as Britain First.

    As it appears he was at a Rochester election, and as a broadcaster, you would think he would have done a little background research to see who the candidates were, maybe even look at literature they had disseminated including photographic representation of the facial characteristics of said candidates.

    The fact that the lady was wearing a great big badge emblazoned with the word candidate, you would think that the hack from the local rag would be able to work out who she was. I think it says more about slipshop working practice by Robinson than anything else.

    If it was done around the time of the onset of his illness, I forgive him. Otherwise he should have known who she was or had the ability to work it out - the information was laid out in front of him.
    She's not an important person. He may have thought he remembered her from somewhere, not sure where, and was being polite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,512
    I agree, I think May will now stay through Brexit and the 2 year transition allowing a new leader to take over shortly before the next general election once the UK is fully out of the EU.

    Of course given current polling has no alternative leader polling better than May and some polling worse it is not impossible she could even lead the party into that election, although unlikely.

    PS Thanks for the birthday messages on the last thread
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 18,174
    edited December 2017
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,607

    philiph said:

    Awkward....

    twitter.com/willblackwriter/status/942729294845014016

    I don't suppose Nick knew who she was when she asked him for a selfie, and surely you're not insinuating that he did?
    and @Philip_Thompson
    I don’t think saying that Nick Robinson posing in a selfie with what we know to be the deputy leader of Britain First is ‘awkward’ is a particularly controversial statement, in fact I’d have thought it was fairly obvious that such a picture is a bit awkward. I doubt that he knew who she was. Given that he was political editor of the BBC for god knows how long though, I’m surprised that he wasn’t aware about far right groups such as Britain First.

    As it appears he was at a Rochester election, and as a broadcaster, you would think he would have done a little background research to see who the candidates were, maybe even look at literature they had disseminated including photographic representation of the facial characteristics of said candidates.

    The fact that the lady was wearing a great big badge emblazoned with the word candidate, you would think that the hack from the local rag would be able to work out who she was. I think it says more about slipshop working practice by Robinson than anything else.

    If it was done around the time of the onset of his illness, I forgive him. Otherwise he should have known who she was or had the ability to work it out - the information was laid out in front of him.
    She's not an important person. He may have thought he remembered her from somewhere, not sure where, and was being polite.
    Making an assumption that it was an 'important' election for the BBC to send one of the 'Star' journalists there, then all the candidates are important in the analysis of where the votes went. A move to the far right (or away) is newsworthy in a tight contest.
  • philiph said:

    Awkward....

    twitter.com/willblackwriter/status/942729294845014016

    I don't suppose Nick knew who she was when she asked him for a selfie, and surely you're not insinuating that he did?
    and @Philip_Thompson
    I don’t think saying that Nick Robinson posing in a selfie with what we know to be the deputy leader of Britain First is ‘awkward’ is a particularly controversial statement, in fact I’d have thought it was fairly obvious that such a picture is a bit awkward. I doubt that he knew who she was. Given that he was political editor of the BBC for god knows how long though, I’m surprised that he wasn’t aware about far right groups such as Britain First.

    As it appears he was at a Rochester election, and as a broadcaster, you would think he would have done a little background research to see who the candidates were, maybe even look at literature they had disseminated including photographic representation of the facial characteristics of said candidates.

    The fact that the lady was wearing a great big badge emblazoned with the word candidate, you would think that the hack from the local rag would be able to work out who she was. I think it says more about slipshop working practice by Robinson than anything else.

    If it was done around the time of the onset of his illness, I forgive him. Otherwise he should have known who she was or had the ability to work it out - the information was laid out in front of him.
    +1.
  • philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Awkward....

    twitter.com/willblackwriter/status/942729294845014016

    I don't suppose Nick knew who she was when she asked him for a selfie, and surely you're not insinuating that he did?
    and @Philip_Thompson
    I don’t think saying that Nick Robinson posing in a selfie with what we know to be the deputy leader of Britain First is ‘awkward’ is a particularly controversial statement, in fact I’d have thought it was fairly obvious that such a picture is a bit awkward. I doubt that he knew who she was. Given that he was political editor of the BBC for god knows how long though, I’m surprised that he wasn’t aware about far right groups such as Britain First.

    As it appears he was at a Rochester election, and as a broadcaster, you would think he would have done a little background research to see who the candidates were, maybe even look at literature they had disseminated including photographic representation of the facial characteristics of said candidates.

    The fact that the lady was wearing a great big badge emblazoned with the word candidate, you would think that the hack from the local rag would be able to work out who she was. I think it says more about slipshop working practice by Robinson than anything else.

    If it was done around the time of the onset of his illness, I forgive him. Otherwise he should have known who she was or had the ability to work it out - the information was laid out in front of him.
    She's not an important person. He may have thought he remembered her from somewhere, not sure where, and was being polite.
    Making an assumption that it was an 'important' election for the BBC to send one of the 'Star' journalists there, then all the candidates are important in the analysis of where the votes went. A move to the far right (or away) is newsworthy in a tight contest.
    She got 56 votes, fewer votes than the Monster Raving Loony Party. She was not newsworthy, the real parties he was there to cover were.

    Since you reference it, it was also at the onset of his illness I believe. This was late 2014 and it was early 2015 he underwent chemo as his cancer had gotten worse so he would have already been fighting his cancer by this stage.
  • If May leads into GE 2021/2 then surely Corbyn is in Downing Street by 10pm exit poll?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,234
    IanB2 said:
    A heinous offence, but as he was voting ”against ids” an unconditional discharge is surely in order.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,607
    edited December 2017

    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Awkward....

    twitter.com/willblackwriter/status/942729294845014016

    I don't suppose Nick knew who she was when she asked him for a selfie, and surely you're not insinuating that he did?
    and @Philip_Thompson
    I don’t think saying that Nick Robinson posing in a selfie with what we know to be the deputy leader of Britain First is ‘awkward’ is a particularly controversial statement, in fact I’d have thought it was fairly obvious that such a picture is a bit awkward. I doubt that he knew who she was. Given that he was political editor of the BBC for god knows how long though, I’m surprised that he wasn’t aware about far right groups such as Britain First.

    As it appears he was at a Rochester election, and as a broadcaster, you would think he would have done a little background research to see who the candidates were, maybe even look at literature they had disseminated including photographic representation of the facial characteristics of said candidates.

    The fact that the lady was wearing a great big badge emblazoned with the word candidate, you would think that the hack from the local rag would be able to work out who she was. I think it says more about slipshop working practice by Robinson than anything else.

    If it was done around the time of the onset of his illness, I forgive him. Otherwise he should have known who she was or had the ability to work it out - the information was laid out in front of him.
    She's not an important person. He may have thought he remembered her from somewhere, not sure where, and was being polite.
    Making an assumption that it was an 'important' election for the BBC to send one of the 'Star' journalists there, then all the candidates are important in the analysis of where the votes went. A move to the far right (or away) is newsworthy in a tight contest.
    She got 56 votes, fewer votes than the Monster Raving Loony Party. She was not newsworthy, the real parties he was there to cover were.

    Since you reference it, it was also at the onset of his illness I believe. This was late 2014 and it was early 2015 he underwent chemo as his cancer had gotten worse so he would have already been fighting his cancer by this stage.
    She was one of eight(?) candidates, 4 or 5 male (?), 2 or 3 female (?). He should have known.
    I guess she could only be one of two or three people in the room.

    I will give benefit of the doubt based on the caveat of the onset of ill health.

    And did he know the result and votes per candidate before he attended?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,779
    HYUFD said:

    I agree, I think May will now stay through Brexit and the 2 year transition allowing a new leader to take over shortly before the next general election once the UK is fully out of the EU.

    Of course given current polling has no alternative leader polling better than May and some polling worse it is not impossible she could even lead the party into that election, although unlikely.

    PS Thanks for the birthday messages on the last thread

    Oh happy birthday. I always feel more favourably towards a fellow Saggitarian....even if it is utterly irrational of me.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,156
    IanB2 said:

    She won't fight 2022 as leader. I've been told that by more than one MP (including one in the whips office).

    The enormous difference between her and Brown is that the Labour rules and culture are designed to keep a leader in place; the Tory ones are designed to make a change swiftly and easily.

    It'll be summer 2019 or summer 2021.

    Lots of MPs said Osborne was inevitable too. I tend to agree with you but it would look strange to force someone out in 2021 for their failings in 2017, if their reputation had recovered by that point.
    You may be right. However, I very much doubt that May's reputation will recover. She is who she is and she is what she is: a conscientious, hardworking details minister. She's also not what she's not: an inspiring leader, a man-manager or a political tactician. She's too defensive and too introverted. Brexit is a process to which she's largely suited to. She's not overly ideological and is highly pragmatic. Further, there's no obvious alternative who'd be better at it.

    For those reasons, and also because even a leadership election that produced a positive change would take two months out of the process, I don't expect a change before 2019 and quite possibly before the second round is complete in 2021. But as MPs look towards the impending election, I expect change to come, one way or another.

    After all, while May might be best-suited to Brexit, nothing she can do on it is going to cover her in glory: it isn't a glorious fight and even the best outcome will still be a bit crap: it won't be a launchpad for an election campaign.
    To summarise, no-one with the muck of Brexit on their hands is ever going to come out of this smelling of roses....
    No. Europe is a serial destroyer of political careers, especially those of Tory leaders. May is not the first to have been consumed by it and I very much doubt she will be the last.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,220

    Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: May implying govt will try to leave Common Fisheries Police and Common Agricultural Policy during transition - won't be easy... EU view is transition is absolutely sticking to status quo, UK view is sticking more or less to status quo - first big fight of next year

    And it will be no more successful than the first big fight of last year over the sequencing of negotiations. The UK will huff and puff and then fold.
    The EEA aren't in CAP or CFP so it ought to be possible to agree an EEA-style transition.
    The point of the transition (as I understand it) is to be agreed quickly in order to provide certainty rather than cliff-edge uncertainty - if something bespoke can be agreed that may as well be the end state rather than a transition which would mean two changes in 2-3 years.
    If we wanted EEA as an end-state then we wouldn't need a transition, we'd simply move from EU to EEA and that would be that.

    EEA-style as a transition is something that could be quickly agreed - it has pre-existing and pre-defined rules, rights and responsibilities. That wouldn't make it an end-state.

    EEA-as-transition has other advantages in smoothing out us detangling ourselves from the EU and as a simplified way of addressing the fact we'll have EEA-rules without EU-voting rights.
    I see what you mean. I suspect that we could probably jump to EEA as a theoretical end state, then begin negotiations to leave, but am not sure that time-limited EEA membership would be agreed to.

    Also, I’m guessing (though I may be wrong) that there are a long list of things where EEA non-EU states diverge from one another in terms of their relationship with the EU, so there isn’t a template EU relationship for EEA members covering all of the “separation” issues that we have to resolve, meaning that this would be hard to do quickly.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 348
    edited December 2017
    IanB2 said:
    IMO the story supports the widely held perception that punishments for electoral fraud are ludicrously light, and unfortunately does little to challenge stereotypes about this being a crime dominated by Asians.

    Subverting our democracy is surely equal to or worse than eg lying about speeding points, yet Chris Huhne went to jail and this guy receives a joke sentence of a £380 fine.

    The fact is he wouldn't have been caught had he not bragged about it on social media, begging the question of how widespread this practice might be under the radar.

  • stevefstevef Posts: 616
    Some historical facts:

    No prime minister, since we became a democracy in 1918 who already had a working majority that has called an un-necessary election before 4 of the 5 years of a parliament was complete in order to increase that majority has ever won that election with a majority. Baldwin (1923), Attlee (1951), Heath (1974) and May 2017 all failed. (Wilson in 1966 and October did not of course have working majorities to start with).

    Theresa May however is the only prime minister since we became a democracy in 1918 to retain power having called an election to increase her working majority. She is the only PM to have won enough seats to do so.

    And the reason for that is Jeremy Corbyn. if Labour had had a better leader in 2017, May would not be PM now. We might have had prime minister Burnham, or Cooper. The reason why May is the only prime minister since we became a democracy to have retained power in the above circumstances is the pathetic excuse for a Leader of the Opposition we have right now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,267
    edited December 2017
    stevef said:

    Some historical facts:

    No prime minister, since we became a democracy in 1918 who already had a working majority that has called an un-necessary election before 4 of the 5 years of a parliament was complete in order to increase that majority has ever won that election with a majority. Baldwin (1923), Attlee (1951), Heath (1974) and May 2017 all failed. (Wilson in 1966 and October did not of course have working majorities to start with).

    Theresa May however is the only prime minister since we became a democracy in 1918 to retain power having called an election to increase her working majority. She is the only PM to have won enough seats to do so.

    And the reason for that is Jeremy Corbyn. if Labour had had a better leader in 2017, May would not be PM now. We might have had prime minister Burnham, or Cooper. The reason why May is the only prime minister since we became a democracy to have retained power in the above circumstances is the pathetic excuse for a Leader of the Opposition we have right now.

    ? There is no way Burnham or Cooper could have triggered the youthquake.
  • philiph said:



    She got 56 votes, fewer votes than the Monster Raving Loony Party. She was not newsworthy, the real parties he was there to cover were.

    Since you reference it, it was also at the onset of his illness I believe. This was late 2014 and it was early 2015 he underwent chemo as his cancer had gotten worse so he would have already been fighting his cancer by this stage.

    She was one of eight(?) candidates, 4 or 5 male (?), 2 or 3 female (?). He should have known.
    I guess she could only be one of two or three people in the room.

    I will give benefit of the doubt based on the caveat of the onset of ill health.

    And did he know the result and votes per candidate before he attended?
    I doubt he knew the outcome of the votes but he would have known who were serious candidates and who were jokes. She is and was a pathetic joke and we shouldn't elevate her to being any more serious than the Loonies.

    Robinson haa apologised for agreeing to the selfie without knowing who she was (something he likely gets asked for all the time) but she would be loving this free publicity. I'd rather not give it to her.
  • Theresa clearly has a very high opinion of herself and will feel bruised and humiliated after the snap-election debacle. She'll want to re-establish her reputation by winning the next GE and returning to the time when everyone adorned and worshipped her. If Boris and co. can portray her as a supplicant to the EU - as they're obviously trying to do with this 'vassal state' stuff - then it's possible that the right-wing media will turn against her. But Dacre, for one, is besotted, so I think that unlikely.
  • 21 Nov 2014


    APOCALYPSE FIRST WITH THE NEWS
  • stevef said:

    Some historical facts:

    No prime minister, since we became a democracy in 1918 who already had a working majority that has called an un-necessary election before 4 of the 5 years of a parliament was complete in order to increase that majority has ever won that election with a majority. Baldwin (1923), Attlee (1951), Heath (1974) and May 2017 all failed. (Wilson in 1966 and October did not of course have working majorities to start with).

    Theresa May however is the only prime minister since we became a democracy in 1918 to retain power having called an election to increase her working majority. She is the only PM to have won enough seats to do so.

    And the reason for that is Jeremy Corbyn. if Labour had had a better leader in 2017, May would not be PM now. We might have had prime minister Burnham, or Cooper. The reason why May is the only prime minister since we became a democracy to have retained power in the above circumstances is the pathetic excuse for a Leader of the Opposition we have right now.

    At the time of 1966 election Wilson had a majority of 2.

    Only ten fewer than Mrs May.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 616

    stevef said:

    Some historical facts:

    No prime minister, since we became a democracy in 1918 who already had a working majority that has called an un-necessary election before 4 of the 5 years of a parliament was complete in order to increase that majority has ever won that election with a majority. Baldwin (1923), Attlee (1951), Heath (1974) and May 2017 all failed. (Wilson in 1966 and October did not of course have working majorities to start with).

    Theresa May however is the only prime minister since we became a democracy in 1918 to retain power having called an election to increase her working majority. She is the only PM to have won enough seats to do so.

    And the reason for that is Jeremy Corbyn. if Labour had had a better leader in 2017, May would not be PM now. We might have had prime minister Burnham, or Cooper. The reason why May is the only prime minister since we became a democracy to have retained power in the above circumstances is the pathetic excuse for a Leader of the Opposition we have right now.

    At the time of 1966 election Wilson had a majority of 2.

    Only ten fewer than Mrs May.
    But it wasnt a "working" majority. A Working majority is usually defined as at least 10
  • stevef said:

    stevef said:

    Some historical facts:

    No prime minister, since we became a democracy in 1918 who already had a working majority that has called an un-necessary election before 4 of the 5 years of a parliament was complete in order to increase that majority has ever won that election with a majority. Baldwin (1923), Attlee (1951), Heath (1974) and May 2017 all failed. (Wilson in 1966 and October did not of course have working majorities to start with).

    Theresa May however is the only prime minister since we became a democracy in 1918 to retain power having called an election to increase her working majority. She is the only PM to have won enough seats to do so.

    And the reason for that is Jeremy Corbyn. if Labour had had a better leader in 2017, May would not be PM now. We might have had prime minister Burnham, or Cooper. The reason why May is the only prime minister since we became a democracy to have retained power in the above circumstances is the pathetic excuse for a Leader of the Opposition we have right now.

    At the time of 1966 election Wilson had a majority of 2.

    Only ten fewer than Mrs May.
    But it wasnt a "working" majority. A Working majority is usually defined as at least 10
    According to whom ?
  • philiph said:

    Awkward....

    twitter.com/willblackwriter/status/942729294845014016

    I don't suppose Nick knew who she was when she asked him for a selfie, and surely you're not insinuating that he did?
    and @Philip_Thompson
    I don’t think saying that Nick Robinson posing in a selfie with what we know to be the deputy leader of Britain First is ‘awkward’ is a particularly controversial statement, in fact I’d have thought it was fairly obvious that such a picture is a bit awkward. I doubt that he knew who she was. Given that he was political editor of the BBC for god knows how long though, I’m surprised that he wasn’t aware about far right groups such as Britain First.

    As it appears he was at a Rochester election, and a broadcaster, you would think he would have done a little background research to see who the candidates were, maybe even look at literature they had disseminated including photographic representation of the facial characteristics of said candidates.

    The fact that the lady was wearing a great big badge emblazoned with the word candidate, you would think that the hack from the local rag would be able to work out who she was. I think it says more about slipshop working practice by Robinson than anything else.

    If it was done around the time of the onset of his illness, I forgive him. Otherwise he should have known who she was or had the ability to work it out - the information was laid out in front of him.
    Surely a far-right candidate ought to find it embarrassing having been caught posing for a selfie with a BBC journo?
    I was thinking the same. Isn't she supposed to think the beeb is an evil den of muslim-loving white-hating luvvie paedophiles?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 18,174
    On the Washington train crash: it appears that today was the first day of a new 'high speed' (*) service:

    http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Rail/Projects.htm

    No idea if this was a new train, though I'm guessing from the pictures it was.

    (*) 79 MPH, apparently. Not exactly high-speed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,917
    May repeating that we're not going to be allowed a second referendum is a good way to increase the desire to hold one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,512
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, I think May will now stay through Brexit and the 2 year transition allowing a new leader to take over shortly before the next general election once the UK is fully out of the EU.

    Of course given current polling has no alternative leader polling better than May and some polling worse it is not impossible she could even lead the party into that election, although unlikely.

    PS Thanks for the birthday messages on the last thread

    Oh happy birthday. I always feel more favourably towards a fellow Saggitarian....even if it is utterly irrational of me.
    Thankyou, even if it does always get overshadowed by Christmas
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,234
    philiph said:



    She was one of eight(?) candidates, 4 or 5 male (?), 2 or 3 female (?). He should have known.
    I guess she could only be one of two or three people in the room.

    I will give benefit of the doubt based on the caveat of the onset of ill health.

    And did he know the result and votes per candidate before he attended?

    You probably mean well, but I am inclined to invite you on behalf of cancer patients everywhere to shove your patronizing benefit of the doubt so far up your fundament that you would need a colonoscopy to get a decent look at it. Cancer is a physical ailment. Why on Earth should it influence Robinson's judgment?

    And why are we calling it a selfie? It patently isn't.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 616

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    Some historical facts:

    No prime minister, since we became a democracy in 1918 who already had a working majority that has called an un-necessary election before 4 of the 5 years of a parliament was complete in order to increase that majority has ever won that election with a majority. Baldwin (1923), Attlee (1951), Heath (1974) and May 2017 all failed. (Wilson in 1966 and October did not of course have working majorities to start with).

    Theresa May however is the only prime minister since we became a democracy in 1918 to retain power having called an election to increase her working majority. She is the only PM to have won enough seats to do so.

    And the reason for that is Jeremy Corbyn. if Labour had had a better leader in 2017, May would not be PM now. We might have had prime minister Burnham, or Cooper. The reason why May is the only prime minister since we became a democracy to have retained power in the above circumstances is the pathetic excuse for a Leader of the Opposition we have right now.

    At the time of 1966 election Wilson had a majority of 2.

    Only ten fewer than Mrs May.
    But it wasnt a "working" majority. A Working majority is usually defined as at least 10
    According to whom ?
    According to most political commentators and political science textbooks. You are not seriously suggesting are you that any government could function on a majority of just 2? That 2 is a working majority allowing smooth passing of legislation. Just one person stuck in traffic could lead to the fall of the government.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,402
    The Tory MPs I have spoken to about May's departure have all said "not until 2019 at the earliest". The media noise was all just that. If Brexit turns out to be a smouldering pile of poo, the number of candidates wanting to replace her and head to electoral ignominy is somewhere between very small --> zero. That outcome won't be known until 2019, earliest.

    If Brexit is something she manages to get through, with a grudging acceptance by the media --> grudging acceptance by both Leave and Remain voters, then yes, the prize of an election win in 2022 is enticing. But by then, the carnival will have passed on by a number of the current big names. And Mrs May....well, the public like someone who is down and out, with two cut eyes, but gets back up off the canvas and starts swinging again. I personally can't see May fighting another election under any circumstances, but she might be much better regarded by both the voters and her party - and be in a much stronger position to "suggest" her successor.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,779

    On the Washington train crash: it appears that today was the first day of a new 'high speed' (*) service:

    http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Rail/Projects.htm

    No idea if this was a new train, though I'm guessing from the pictures it was.

    (*) 79 MPH, apparently. Not exactly high-speed.

    Also I-5 closed. The major north south West Coast road. 79 mph is lightning by Amtrak standards.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,124

    May repeating that we're not going to be allowed a second referendum is a good way to increase the desire to hold one.


    Not really. A referendum was held; a result was provided. You cannot keep asking for another because you didn't like the result.

  • stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    Some historical facts:

    No prime minister, since we became a democracy in 1918 who already had a working majority that has called an un-necessary election before 4 of the 5 years of a parliament was complete in order to increase that majority has ever won that election with a majority. Baldwin (1923), Attlee (1951), Heath (1974) and May 2017 all failed. (Wilson in 1966 and October did not of course have working majorities to start with).

    Theresa May however is the only prime minister since we became a democracy in 1918 to retain power having called an election to increase her working majority. She is the only PM to have won enough seats to do so.

    And the reason for that is Jeremy Corbyn. if Labour had had a better leader in 2017, May would not be PM now. We might have had prime minister Burnham, or Cooper. The reason why May is the only prime minister since we became a democracy to have retained power in the above circumstances is the pathetic excuse for a Leader of the Opposition we have right now.

    At the time of 1966 election Wilson had a majority of 2.

    Only ten fewer than Mrs May.
    But it wasnt a "working" majority. A Working majority is usually defined as at least 10
    According to whom ?
    According to most political commentators and political science textbooks. You are not seriously suggesting are you that any government could function on a majority of just 2? That 2 is a working majority allowing smooth passing of legislation. Just one person stuck in traffic could lead to the fall of the government.
    So you'll be able to cite links to these commentators and textbooks?
  • 21 Nov 2014


    APOCALYPSE FIRST WITH THE NEWS
    Are you okay? No need to shout.

    I didn’t say that this story was ‘new’ btw.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,917

    May repeating that we're not going to be allowed a second referendum is a good way to increase the desire to hold one.

    Not really. A referendum was held; a result was provided. You cannot keep asking for another because you didn't like the result.
    The trick is making sure the people who voted for it like the result of the result. Can the government pull off that trick?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,948
    Maggie was delightful....

    And close to interminable herself.

    Not all of us share your political leanings, Mr.D...
    :smile:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,402

    May repeating that we're not going to be allowed a second referendum is a good way to increase the desire to hold one.


    Not really. A referendum was held; a result was provided. You cannot keep asking for another because you didn't like the result.

    You don't know williamglenn! His appetite for asking for another referendum is limitless......

    It's a contagious psychosis that runs amok in Brussels, it seems.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 616

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    Some historical facts:

    No prime minister, since we became a democracy in 1918 who already had a working majority that has called an un-necessary election before 4 of the 5 years of a parliament was complete in order to increase that majority has ever won that election with a majority. Baldwin (1923), Attlee (1951), Heath (1974) and May 2017 all failed. (Wilson in 1966 and October did not of course have working majorities to start with).

    Theresa May however is the only prime minister since we became a democracy in 1918 to retain power having called an election to increase her working majority. She is the only PM to have won enough seats to do so.

    And the reason for that is Jeremy Corbyn. if Labour had had a better leader in 2017, May would not be PM now. We might have had prime minister Burnham, or Cooper. The reason why May is the only prime minister since we became a democracy to have retained power in the above circumstances is the pathetic excuse for a Leader of the Opposition we have right now.

    At the time of 1966 election Wilson had a majority of 2.

    Only ten fewer than Mrs May.
    But it wasnt a "working" majority. A Working majority is usually defined as at least 10
    According to whom ?
    According to most political commentators and political science textbooks. You are not seriously suggesting are you that any government could function on a majority of just 2? That 2 is a working majority allowing smooth passing of legislation. Just one person stuck in traffic could lead to the fall of the government.
    So you'll be able to cite links to these commentators and textbooks?
    Yes if you explain first how a government majority of 2, which could lead to a government falling as the result of one MP being stuck in traffic can be remotely defined as a "working" majority. If you can explain the difference between majority and "working" majority.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,267
    A good read, thanks for the link. And the looming strategic problem for the Tories in a sentence:

    The Conservatives have secured for themselves a predominately pro-Brexit socially conservative electorate whose wish for greater “control” puts them at odds with the views of the party’s traditional allies in big business, who hitherto have been attracted by the more laissez-faire, pro-free market, centre right stance of the Conservative party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,948
    philiph said:

    Awkward....

    twitter.com/willblackwriter/status/942729294845014016

    I don't suppose Nick knew who she was when she asked him for a selfie, and surely you're not insinuating that he did?
    and @Philip_Thompson
    I don’t think saying that Nick Robinson posing in a selfie with what we know to be the deputy leader of Britain First is ‘awkward’ is a particularly controversial statement, in fact I’d have thought it was fairly obvious that such a picture is a bit awkward. I doubt that he knew who she was. Given that he was political editor of the BBC for god knows how long though, I’m surprised that he wasn’t aware about far right groups such as Britain First.

    As it appears he was at a Rochester election, and as a broadcaster, you would think he would have done a little background research to see who the candidates were, maybe even look at literature they had disseminated including photographic representation of the facial characteristics of said candidates.

    The fact that the lady was wearing a great big badge emblazoned with the word candidate, you would think that the hack from the local rag would be able to work out who she was. I think it says more about slipshop working practice by Robinson than anything else.

    If it was done around the time of the onset of his illness, I forgive him. Otherwise he should have known who she was or had the ability to work it out - the information was laid out in front of him.
    He is quite short sighted, I think.
  • Yep. The Tory Right should be in favour of this. I thought they loved markets and trade.
  • May repeating that we're not going to be allowed a second referendum is a good way to increase the desire to hold one.


    Not really. A referendum was held; a result was provided. You cannot keep asking for another because you didn't like the result.

    You don't know williamglenn! His appetite for asking for another referendum is limitless......

    It's a contagious psychosis that runs amok in Brussels, it seems.
    But you can have another referendum if it is clear the public feel they have made a mistake.
  • Yep. The Tory Right should be in favour of this. I thought they loved markets and trade.
    Indeed, one of Mrs Thatcher's finest achievements as Prime Minister.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,207

    Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: May implying govt will try to leave Common Fisheries Police and Common Agricultural Policy during transition - won't be easy... EU view is transition is absolutely sticking to status quo, UK view is sticking more or less to status quo - first big fight of next year

    And it will be no more successful than the first big fight of last year over the sequencing of negotiations. The UK will huff and puff and then fold.
    The EEA aren't in CAP or CFP so it ought to be possible to agree an EEA-style transition.
    The point of the transition (as I understand it) is to be agreed quickly in order to provide certainty rather than cliff-edge uncertainty - if something bespoke can be agreed that may as well be the end state rather than a transition which would mean two changes in 2-3 years.

    Indeed - it is not a transition deal unless you are transitioning to something.

    No change isn't a transition either!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,320
    edited December 2017
    IanB2 said:

    A good read, thanks for the link. And the looming strategic problem for the Tories in a sentence:

    The Conservatives have secured for themselves a predominately pro-Brexit socially conservative electorate whose wish for greater “control” puts them at odds with the views of the party’s traditional allies in big business, who hitherto have been attracted by the more laissez-faire, pro-free market, centre right stance of the Conservative party.
    Curtice has written/spoken quite a bit about this new divide since the GE. He wrote a piece for the New Statesmen regarding this fairly recently, and he had a talk with some young Conservatives about it some months ago as well (one of them posted tweets about it). He thinks that Labour did better than expected in June not because of their left wing economic polices, but because of a perception that they were the more socially liberal party.

  • felixfelix Posts: 7,014

    21 Nov 2014


    APOCALYPSE FIRST WITH THE NEWS
    Are you okay? No need to shout.

    I didn’t say that this story was ‘new’ btw.
    The original tweet(?) was clearly an attempt to smear Nick Robinson by the left. Little else to say really.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 616
    Its not been a good year for Theresa May, but Corbyn has ensured that its not been disastrous one either: she is still in power, and the Tories are up there in the 40s, despite being such a shambles.

    Corbyn might think he has had a good year, and in a sense he has, since the illusion of success following the election has allowed him to stay Labour leader, and to inflict his hard left interpretation of Labour on his party.

    But he is in the very tricky position of depending entirely on all those older Tories who abstained in the 2017 election continuing to stay at home in the years right up to and including 2022. He depends entirely on older Tories who stayed at home because they were angry at May's dementia tax, and who didnt see Corbyn as likely to succeed, continuing to be angry at the Tories, and underestimating his electoral chances right up to 2022.

    If the older voters decide that Corbyn has a chance of winning, and if they become benevolent to May or her successor in 2022, and they come out on polling day he is sunk.

    In some parallel universe Andy Burnham was elected Labour leader in 2015, successfully campaigned for Remain in the EU referendum which won, and is now Prime minister.
  • Mr. Borough, that sums up the whole problem, though.

    The UK likes the trade. It doesn't like the political integration. The EU doesn't want to divorce them and doesn't offer an associate option, which would benefit both sides.

    The UK's problem is in sharp focus because we've leaving. But over the coming years, the competing centrifugal forces of rising nationalism (and concerns about social cohesion), and centripetal forces of a continuing drive to integrate and centralise power away from nation states will be increasingly difficult for the EU.

    The interesting times in which we live won't stop being interesting for decades.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,014

    May repeating that we're not going to be allowed a second referendum is a good way to increase the desire to hold one.


    Not really. A referendum was held; a result was provided. You cannot keep asking for another because you didn't like the result.

    You don't know williamglenn! His appetite for asking for another referendum is limitless......

    It's a contagious psychosis that runs amok in Brussels, it seems.
    Especially bizarre when there is only ever one acceptable result.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519
    IanB2 said:

    A good read, thanks for the link. And the looming strategic problem for the Tories in a sentence:

    The Conservatives have secured for themselves a predominately pro-Brexit socially conservative electorate whose wish for greater “control” puts them at odds with the views of the party’s traditional allies in big business, who hitherto have been attracted by the more laissez-faire, pro-free market, centre right stance of the Conservative party.
    As one door closes, another opens.
  • Yep. The Tory Right should be in favour of this. I thought they loved markets and trade.
    Indeed, one of Mrs Thatcher's finest achievements as Prime Minister.
    It is incredible really isn't it.

    And we will end up rejoining. That's if we ever leave, which I still very much doubt.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,267
    On topic:

    By the time one has read his account of the last general election campaign, in which Theresa May’s limitations as a candidate were so cruelly exposed, one cannot help wondering why she has survived as Prime Minister.

    The personal feuding behind the scenes in Theresa May’s Downing Street would not have been out of place in a Christmas episode of EastEnders or the Godfather movies.”


    https://www.conservativehome.com/book-reviews/2017/12/shipman-reports-the-full-horror-of-mays-downing-street.html



  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 61,058
    edited December 2017
    IanB2 said:

    On topic:

    By the time one has read his account of the last general election campaign, in which Theresa May’s limitations as a candidate were so cruelly exposed, one cannot help wondering why she has survived as Prime Minister.

    The personal feuding behind the scenes in Theresa May’s Downing Street would not have been out of place in a Christmas episode of EastEnders or the Godfather movies.”


    https://www.conservativehome.com/book-reviews/2017/12/shipman-reports-the-full-horror-of-mays-downing-street.html



    This was the point I was banging on PB about for ages at the time and why I gave Mrs May the moniker 'The pound shop Gordon Brown'

    A Downing Street official said, “Fiona and Nick thought the officials were their slaves.” Civil servants were “shitting themselves all the time” and “were in mourning for the Cameron years. There was a decency about his team.”
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