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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can we agree that “Peak Theresa” was the ComRes 25% lead in th

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can we agree that “Peak Theresa” was the ComRes 25% lead in the S Mirror on April 23rd 2017?

Over the past day or so may have been lots of eulogies, that’s the best way to describe it, to the extraordinary resilience and staying ower of Theresa May who seems to cope with one crisis after another and still remain at Number 10.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,220
    edited December 2017
    First obvs.

    And with her recent (relative) recovery is anyone brace enough to call “trough Theresa”? Or will the decline continue in 2018 after a brief respite?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,234
    Polruan said:

    First obvs.

    And with her recent (relative) recovery is anyone brace enough to call “trough Theresa”? Or will the decline continue in 2018 after a brief recovery?

    Hello?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    edited December 2017
    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament
  • That was definitely a Comedy Result!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,281
    edited December 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    Does that suggest another Indyref?

    Edit - yes
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532
    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    Either way it looks like that result means the Madrid and Barcelona clash will continue
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,234
    Polruan said:

    First obvs.

    And with her recent (relative) recovery is anyone brace enough to call “trough Theresa”? Or will the decline continue in 2018 after a brief respite?

    Boring old mean reversion is the likeliest thing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,728
    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    What a waste of time.

    Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    edited December 2017

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    Does that suggest another Indyref?
    The result looks too close to call. Especially as it was a phone poll carried out during a fairly tight time slot on polling day. I have no idea how accurate Spanish polling is, but that sounds a bit hit and miss to me.

    Looks like a humiliation for the governing PP however.
  • Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    What a waste of time.

    Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
    Unlike his predecessors he can't call on the Luftwaffe to get his own way.
  • Update on the deferred election for the greater Sheffield (but less than it was) mayor.

    The results of local consultative polls in Barnsley and Doncaster have been announced with significant support for the One Yorkshire mayor version.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-42441721
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    What a waste of time.

    Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
    Rajoy is stubborn, but his opponents are worse. Catalan unionists are treated poorly by the local government.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 886
    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

  • Update on the deferred election for the greater Sheffield (but less than it was) mayor.

    The results of local consultative polls in Barnsley and Doncaster have been announced with significant support for the One Yorkshire mayor version.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-42441721

    This is local democracy we are talking about - how dare the local people have their say.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    On topic, all that Tory canvassing done in Bolsover in vain! More canvassing than Labour ever does there, by the sound of it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    What a waste of time.

    Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
    Probably not, though as you say a waste of time all around really. Spain hasn't blinked on the issue yet, and presumably won't even with this, and what would be the point of the separatists trying for another illegal referendum, so how does forward progress for either side occur?
  • IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    It’s a phone poll, I think, not an exit poll. There have been a couple of others, too. One for Catalunya Radio shows the indy-bloc falling short. The key thing is not the seats, but the vote share. There are three scenarios:
    1. Indy-bloc gets 50%+ - gamechanger
    2. Indy-bloc stays at same level as now - stalemate
    3. Indy-bloc share falls - good news for Spanish unity.

    It’s important to remember that the three indy parties are running on very different platforms and will struggle to work together, especially if they do not get a majority of votes; and it’s easier for indy parties to get seats because their vote is strongest in areas where it takes fewer votes to win.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    If the exit poll from La Vanguardia is anything like the final result in Catalonia, it could pose an interesting question as to who has the right to form the region's next government.

    Normally, the largest party has the right to have the first stab at forming a government - according to the exit poll, this would be the unionist party Citizens.

    However, the separatist parties may insist they have the right to try first, if they have the largest number of seats overall.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,781

    Update on the deferred election for the greater Sheffield (but less than it was) mayor.

    The results of local consultative polls in Barnsley and Doncaster have been announced with significant support for the One Yorkshire mayor version.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-42441721

    A local mayor for local people?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    IanB2 said:

    If the exit poll from La Vanguardia is anything like the final result in Catalonia, it could pose an interesting question as to who has the right to form the region's next government.

    Normally, the largest party has the right to have the first stab at forming a government - according to the exit poll, this would be the unionist party Citizens.

    However, the separatist parties may insist they have the right to try first, if they have the largest number of seats overall.

    Presumably one reason the biggest separatist parties stood in an alliance last time?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,487
    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    What a waste of time.

    Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
    Rajoy is stubborn, but his opponents are worse. Catalan unionists are treated poorly by the local government.
    Catalonia is the only region in Europe where the linguistic majority cannot send their children to state schools where they will be educated in their language. Hardly an admirable example.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,628
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Polruan said:

    First obvs.

    And with her recent (relative) recovery is anyone brace enough to call “trough Theresa”? Or will the decline continue in 2018 after a brief respite?

    Boring old mean reversion is the likeliest thing.
    Mean reversion to what? Plenty of data points with her miles ahead. Or is that what you mean?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    It’s a phone poll, I think, not an exit poll. There have been a couple of others, too. One for Catalunya Radio shows the indy-bloc falling short. The key thing is not the seats, but the vote share. There are three scenarios:
    1. Indy-bloc gets 50%+ - gamechanger
    2. Indy-bloc stays at same level as now - stalemate
    3. Indy-bloc share falls - good news for Spanish unity.

    It’s important to remember that the three indy parties are running on very different platforms and will struggle to work together, especially if they do not get a majority of votes; and it’s easier for indy parties to get seats because their vote is strongest in areas where it takes fewer votes to win.

    I think it's both - it's a phone "how did you vote?" poll. Or, more correctly, a "¿how did you vote?" poll.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,209
    "All the xenephobes want to end freedom of movement" does not mean the same as "everyone who wants to end freedom of movement is a xenephobe".

    There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    Does that suggest another Indyref?
    The result looks too close to call. Especially as it was a phone poll carried out during a fairly tight time slot on polling day. I have no idea how accurate Spanish polling is, but that sounds a bit hit and miss to me.

    Looks like a humiliation for the governing PP however.

    Yep - PP has been almost totally rejected. No surprise really. Rajoy’s handling of the Catalan question has been catastrophic.

  • Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    What a waste of time.

    Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
    Rajoy is stubborn, but his opponents are worse. Catalan unionists are treated poorly by the local government.
    Yeah, it's terrible how they're beaten up by the Mossos and their political leaders are imprisoned.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    edited December 2017
    Rajoy's PP down from 11 to projected 4 seats, out of 135.

    Although the non-Puigdemont separatists have gained considerably at his party's expense
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044

    "All the xenephobes want to end freedom of movement" does not mean the same as "everyone who wants to end freedom of movement is a xenephobe".

    There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.

    Colleague of mine's parents came over from north africa in the late 60s, and voted to Leave mostly due to the impact of eastern european immigration apparently, much to their strongly remain child's shock.

    I don't think it should be a surprise that even many remainers were in favour of controlling immigration more, if not, on average, as fervent about it as most leavers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519

    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    What a waste of time.

    Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
    Rajoy is stubborn, but his opponents are worse. Catalan unionists are treated poorly by the local government.
    Yeah, it's terrible how they're beaten up by the Mossos and their political leaders are imprisoned.
    It's hardly fair that they can't educate their children in their own language.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,027
    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    What a waste of time.

    Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
    Rajoy is stubborn, but his opponents are worse. Catalan unionists are treated poorly by the local government.
    They get the pplice to beat them when going to vote?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    Nice of them to count Puig's home patch first?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    IanB2 said:

    Nice of them to count Puig's home patch first?
    I don't suppose he had an absentee ballot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
    Quite.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    edited December 2017
    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
    Presently Labour isn't seeking anything much on Brexit, or on avoiding Brexit, TBF.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
    Presently Labour isn't seeking anything much on Brexit, or on not Brexit, TBF.
    Indeed. With more chaos to come from the government, I would expect, hopefully they will be forced into clarity at some point.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    The Catalans have done 125,000 votes already ; we'd just be getting Sunderland....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,942
    IanB2 said:

    The Catalans have done 125,000 votes already ; we'd just be getting Sunderland....

    How boring election night would be if all the results were announced instantaneously :p
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
    Quite.
    The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,234
    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Polruan said:

    First obvs.

    And with her recent (relative) recovery is anyone brace enough to call “trough Theresa”? Or will the decline continue in 2018 after a brief respite?

    Boring old mean reversion is the likeliest thing.
    Mean reversion to what? Plenty of data points with her miles ahead. Or is that what you mean?
    To the ****; first letter m. Does that help?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    Girona must be their Sunderland as the Indys are well clear of 50% in early counting
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    edited December 2017
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
    Quite.
    The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
    Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?

    On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.

    He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
    Quite.
    The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
    Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?

    On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.

    He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
    Sarcastic? Moi? Surely not.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Catalans have done 125,000 votes already ; we'd just be getting Sunderland....

    How boring election night would be if all the results were announced instantaneously :p
    Yeah, the guy who wrote the STV counting program for internal LibDem elections wasn't popular. What used to be an afternoon of cliff-hanging suspense (for the handful who were interested) was replaced by a press of a button and a ten second wait for a computer printout.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,220
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Polruan said:

    First obvs.

    And with her recent (relative) recovery is anyone brace enough to call “trough Theresa”? Or will the decline continue in 2018 after a brief respite?

    Boring old mean reversion is the likeliest thing.
    Mean reversion to what? Plenty of data points with her miles ahead. Or is that what you mean?
    To the ****; first letter m. Does that help?
    Thing is, if it’s true that all political careers end in failure, isn’t the graph more like an initial ascent, a plateau and then a gradual decline leavened by occasional recoveries?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    IanB2 said:

    The Catalans have done 125,000 votes already ; we'd just be getting Sunderland....

    H’away the lads. H’way Sunderland.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
    Quite.
    The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
    Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?

    On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.

    He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
    It cannot change until it is established in the first place, surely?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
    Quite.
    The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
    Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?

    On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.

    He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
    It cannot change until it is established in the first place, surely?
    OK, fair point.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623
    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    So, Unionist parties will have about 52% of the vote, and Separatist parties about 52% of the seats.

    Ouch.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 886
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
    Presently Labour isn't seeking anything much on Brexit, or on not Brexit, TBF.
    If I was a Brexitteer I would be concerned about Corbyn trying to negotiate Brexit.

    I don't think that May's strategy is right, and agree with the criticism that she has blundered in to this unprepared, but is it really better to have no strategy at all?


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
    Quite.
    The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
    Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?

    On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.

    He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
    The Popular Party are still right behind Rajoy and the PP still leads Spanish national polls, if the separatists win a narrow majority he will stand firm and not budge I imagine. Though what Catalans really want is more autonomy
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    So, Unionist parties will have about 52% of the vote, and Separatist parties about 52% of the seats.

    Ouch.
    Helpfully that means they can both claim a clear victory.

    Of course, that presupposes the poll is accurate. The methodology sounds odd.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    Does that suggest another Indyref?
    The result looks too close to call. Especially as it was a phone poll carried out during a fairly tight time slot on polling day. I have no idea how accurate Spanish polling is, but that sounds a bit hit and miss to me.

    Looks like a humiliation for the governing PP however.
    Last time around at the national level, the PP was massively understated, and did far better than the exit poll.

    But the PP barely registers in Catalonia.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516
    Thanks. Looks like they’re counting quite quickly now, over 5% so far.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    So, Unionist parties will have about 52% of the vote, and Separatist parties about 52% of the seats.

    Ouch.
    The Indys have 53% of the votes in early counting. But the traffic in Barcelona always was a nightmare in the early evening.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
    Quite.
    The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
    Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?

    On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.

    He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
    The Popular Party are still right behind Rajoy and the PP still leads Spanish national polls
    So he is toast?

    Remember Sir Humphrey's famous dictum - it is needful to get behind someone before stabbing them in the back.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623

    "All the xenephobes want to end freedom of movement" does not mean the same as "everyone who wants to end freedom of movement is a xenephobe".

    There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.

    Yes. Especially people who don't want their mother-in-laws arriving.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,628
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Polruan said:

    First obvs.

    And with her recent (relative) recovery is anyone brace enough to call “trough Theresa”? Or will the decline continue in 2018 after a brief respite?

    Boring old mean reversion is the likeliest thing.
    Mean reversion to what? Plenty of data points with her miles ahead. Or is that what you mean?
    To the ****; first letter m. Does that help?
    Yeah thanks for that. I for some reason thought you had a point of view to communicate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    Official turnout 86%, 4.5 million votes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.

    1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
    2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.

    She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.

    Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
    Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
    Quite.
    The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
    Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?

    On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.

    He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
    The Popular Party are still right behind Rajoy and the PP still leads Spanish national polls
    So he is toast?

    Remember Sir Humphrey's famous dictum - it is needful to get behind someone before stabbing them in the back.
    He isn't as the PP will be even more stubborn than before, plus the PP still has a lot of support outside Catalonia, look at all the Spaniards on the streets of Madrid waving Spanish flags as they applauded the Civil Guard on its way to deal with the unofficial Catalan referendum
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    What a waste of time.

    Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
    Rajoy is stubborn, but his opponents are worse. Catalan unionists are treated poorly by the local government.
    Catalonia is the only region in Europe where the linguistic majority cannot send their children to state schools where they will be educated in their language. Hardly an admirable example.
    Linguistic plurality I think you mean.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623
    IanB2 said:

    Girona must be their Sunderland as the Indys are well clear of 50% in early counting

    During the general election last year, strongly pro-union Barcelona (and C's stronghold) was the last area to declare.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    IanB2 said:

    Official turnout 86%, 4.5 million votes.

    Remarkable. Hard to get much higher than that, surely?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    rcs1000 said:

    "All the xenephobes want to end freedom of movement" does not mean the same as "everyone who wants to end freedom of movement is a xenephobe".

    There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.

    Yes. Especially people who don't want their mother-in-laws arriving.
    Do you not think that going to California was a bit extreme in that respect?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,942
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Official turnout 86%, 4.5 million votes.

    Remarkable. Hard to get much higher than that, surely?
    Hitler managed it ;)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,830
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Official turnout 86%, 4.5 million votes.

    Remarkable. Hard to get much higher than that, surely?
    Danish turnout is often near 90%, as I recall. Nearly all postal votes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    So, Unionist parties will have about 52% of the vote, and Separatist parties about 52% of the seats.

    Ouch.
    The Indys have 53% of the votes in early counting. But the traffic in Barcelona always was a nightmare in the early evening.
    See: https://resultats.parlament2017.cat/09AU/DAU09000CI.htm?lang=ca

    Barcelona is less than half the level counted of the other areas. (And is massively pro-C)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Official turnout 86%, 4.5 million votes.

    Remarkable. Hard to get much higher than that, surely?
    Danish turnout is often near 90%, as I recall. Nearly all postal votes.
    Is it a legal requirement to vote?
  • rcs1000 said:

    "All the xenephobes want to end freedom of movement" does not mean the same as "everyone who wants to end freedom of movement is a xenephobe".

    There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.

    Yes. Especially people who don't want their mother-in-laws arriving.
    Oh dear - call the grammar police!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,487

    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    What a waste of time.

    Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
    Rajoy is stubborn, but his opponents are worse. Catalan unionists are treated poorly by the local government.
    Catalonia is the only region in Europe where the linguistic majority cannot send their children to state schools where they will be educated in their language. Hardly an admirable example.
    Linguistic plurality I think you mean.
    No, majority. Almost everyone in Catalonia speaks Spanish, only a minority speak Catalan.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    So, Unionist parties will have about 52% of the vote, and Separatist parties about 52% of the seats.

    Ouch.
    The Indys have 53% of the votes in early counting. But the traffic in Barcelona always was a nightmare in the early evening.
    See: https://resultats.parlament2017.cat/09AU/DAU09000CI.htm?lang=ca

    Barcelona is less than half the level counted of the other areas. (And is massively pro-C)
    If Barca is not being counted as much as other areas the Citizens seem to be doing really well. Maybe picked up a good chunk of the PP support?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    86% turnout. Wow.

    In Australia, where voting is compulsory, last year turnout was 90.9%.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    The Catalonian voting system is list PR - using the d'Hondt method which gives a slight advantage to larger parties - and a 3% vote threshold below which you get no seats at all - but with the results calculated separately for the four districts (constituencies) and with a weighting reducing Barcelona's influence by giving the other districts more representatives per population (as the UK used to award Scotland, Wales and NI).
  • RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:
    I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
    Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:
    I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
    Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
    Yes, because they're the occupying power. Which is sort of the problem.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    So, Unionist parties will have about 52% of the vote, and Separatist parties about 52% of the seats.

    Ouch.
    The Indys have 53% of the votes in early counting. But the traffic in Barcelona always was a nightmare in the early evening.
    See: https://resultats.parlament2017.cat/09AU/DAU09000CI.htm?lang=ca

    Barcelona is less than half the level counted of the other areas. (And is massively pro-C)
    Yep, the Indy vote already down from nearly 54% to just over 52%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    ydoethur said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:
    I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
    Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
    Yes, because they're the occupying power. Which is sort of the problem.
    Even more relevantly, whatever the rights or wrongs of our vote, foreign states tell others what their status or is not all the time - some places tell Israel they are not a country at all, though more acknowledge they are. And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623
    Right now, the three independence parties (Junts, ERC and CUP) are on 49.5% of the vote between them, but are looking at 71 seats out of 135.

    I would expect that their vote share will drift lower, as Barcelona is well behind the other regions as far as counts go. Nevertheless, it looks like a repeat of last time with the pro-Independence parties still short of the magic 50% of the vote mark (say 48%), but with the majority of the seats.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    kle4 said:

    And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.

    Which one of Taiwan, North Cyprus and the Palestinian Territories are you referring to?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    edited December 2017
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.

    Which one of Taiwan, North Cyprus and the Palestinian Territories are you referring to?
    I was thinking of Somaliland - it seems to have all the necessary trappings of a state, and is stable and apparently democratic, but no one recognises it at all, and therefore its capital is presumably not a capital at all, since it is just a city in Somalia.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623
    rcs1000 said:

    Right now, the three independence parties (Junts, ERC and CUP) are on 49.5% of the vote between them, but are looking at 71 seats out of 135.

    I would expect that their vote share will drift lower, as Barcelona is well behind the other regions as far as counts go. Nevertheless, it looks like a repeat of last time with the pro-Independence parties still short of the magic 50% of the vote mark (say 48%), but with the majority of the seats.

    With 15% counted, the Indy3 are at 49.2%.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    rcs1000 said:

    Right now, the three independence parties (Junts, ERC and CUP) are on 49.5% of the vote between them, but are looking at 71 seats out of 135.

    I would expect that their vote share will drift lower, as Barcelona is well behind the other regions as far as counts go. Nevertheless, it looks like a repeat of last time with the pro-Independence parties still short of the magic 50% of the vote mark (say 48%), but with the majority of the seats.

    Yep. Indeed if Barca stays as it is the Indys could be well short of 50% and maybe short of a majority of seats. Yet the governing party is rejected almost completely.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.

    Which one of Taiwan, North Cyprus and the Palestinian Territories are you referring to?
    I was thinking of Somaliland - it seems to have all the necessary trappings of a state, and is stable and apparently democratic, but no one recognises it at all, and therefore its capital is presumably not a capital at all, since it is just a city in Somalia.
    Good one. Hadn't even thought of that.

    Yes, that is as you say very unjust.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623

    rcs1000 said:

    "All the xenephobes want to end freedom of movement" does not mean the same as "everyone who wants to end freedom of movement is a xenephobe".

    There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.

    Yes. Especially people who don't want their mother-in-laws arriving.
    Oh dear - call the grammar police!
    I have multiple mother-in-laws. They just all occupy the same body.
  • 30 year woman stabbed to death in an Aldi store in Skipton.

    Just so dreadful
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623
    A staggering 75% of all Citizen's votes have come from Catalonia.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,487
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:
    I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
    Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
    Yes, because they're the occupying power. Which is sort of the problem.
    Even more relevantly, whatever the rights or wrongs of our vote, foreign states tell others what their status or is not all the time - some places tell Israel they are not a country at all, though more acknowledge they are. And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.
    There aren’t many UN member states whose existence a significant number of countries refuse to recognise.

    I just don’t see how recognising the reality of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which would only change in the event of the state of Israel’s destruction, will make any difference to the ultimate fate of the Palestinians. It’s like Britain only recognising Chinese ‘suzerainty’ over Tibet until 2008.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    rcs1000 said:

    A staggering 75% of all Citizen's votes have come from Catalonia.

    ?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 636
    edited December 2017
    I don't know if these sectoral analyses newly published on the Brexit committee website have been commented on earlier. Are these new public information, do they say much new given the redactions and are they the DEXEU docs or something the committee have commissioned or pulled from elsewhere?

    Would normally do the legwork before posting, but only had a few minutes.

    http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/exiting-the-european-union-committee/publications/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Right now, the three independence parties (Junts, ERC and CUP) are on 49.5% of the vote between them, but are looking at 71 seats out of 135.

    I would expect that their vote share will drift lower, as Barcelona is well behind the other regions as far as counts go. Nevertheless, it looks like a repeat of last time with the pro-Independence parties still short of the magic 50% of the vote mark (say 48%), but with the majority of the seats.

    Yep. Indeed if Barca stays as it is the Indys could be well short of 50% and maybe short of a majority of seats. Yet the governing party is rejected almost completely.
    Not on seats, because the system gives Barcelona fewer seats per head of population than the other areas. Which is a recipe for discord.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:
    I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
    Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
    Yes, because they're the occupying power. Which is sort of the problem.
    Even more relevantly, whatever the rights or wrongs of our vote, foreign states tell others what their status or is not all the time - some places tell Israel they are not a country at all, though more acknowledge they are. And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.
    There aren’t many UN member states whose existence a significant number of countries refuse to recognise.

    I just don’t see how recognising the reality of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which would only change in the event of the state of Israel’s destruction, will make any difference to the ultimate fate of the Palestinians. It’s like Britain only recognising Chinese ‘suzerainty’ over Tibet until 2008.
    I don't see how it will make much difference either, but the point was that is is for foreign states to tell others things, or at least they have always done so to some degree, even if it is silly or pointless.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,027
    Funny thing was, I was opposed to Catalonian independence - I find their movement small minded and insular - but the whole police beating voters thing was unacceptable.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    "All the xenephobes want to end freedom of movement" does not mean the same as "everyone who wants to end freedom of movement is a xenephobe".

    There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.

    Yes. Especially people who don't want their mother-in-laws arriving.
    Oh dear - call the grammar police!
    I have multiple mother-in-laws. They just all occupy the same body.
    In a Mark 5:9 kinda way?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    rcs1000 said:

    A staggering 75% of all Citizen's votes have come from Catalonia.

    All those giant rallies for Independence there from out of towners it would seem.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A staggering 75% of all Citizen's votes have come from Catalonia.

    ?
    Oops. I mean BARCELONA.

    169,642 votes in Barcelona, out of a Catalonian total of 226,461.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    So far the biggest diff from the exit phone poll is that Puidg's lot are holding a better share of the Indy vote than the poll suggested
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 165
    rcs1000 said:

    A staggering 75% of all Citizen's votes have come from Catalonia.

    isn't it 75% of the population?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623
    The Indy3 are down to 48.9% of the vote now, with 24% counted.
This discussion has been closed.