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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you are betting on the Trump exit markets be careful to che

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited January 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you are betting on the Trump exit markets be careful to check the precise terms of the bet

Inevitably the publication of the new book on the Trump White House Fire and Fury, by Michael Wolff has led to an enormous amount interest in betting on whether Mr trump Will survive his first term.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Some of the bookies also don't know that impeachment doesn't equal leaving office.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,059
    No cash on this, but good point to highlight the finickityness of definitions used by different sites.
  • I've always wondered what would happen if Mike Pence assassinated Trump?

    I'd assume Pence would become President but either be impeached but Section IV of the XXV Amendment might be tricky.
  • For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,279
    Repost FPT as now spookilly on-topic:

    Team Trump now turned to book-banning:

    'Lawyers for US President Donald Trump are seeking to stop the release of a book containing explosive insights into his presidency, US media report.'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42570555
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    FPT. Mr Dancer, cruckling is a Rochdale area word for an activity which would be disastrous for a dancer. It’s the temporary going over on ones ankle.
  • Repost FPT as now spookilly on-topic:

    Team Trump now turned to book-banning:

    'Lawyers for US President Donald Trump are seeking to stop the release of a book containing explosive insights into his presidency, US media report.'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42570555

    Has he not heard of the First Amendment?

    I wonder what the NDA looks like.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,059
    King Cole, this shows the wisdom of my non-cruckling policy.

    Vote Morris Dancer to stand firm against cruckling!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,196

    Some of the bookies also don't know that impeachment doesn't equal leaving office.

    This is the big one. Impeachment is heavily odds-on, I think. Trump to be impeached in 2019 @ 7/1 is the bet of the year (so far!)

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/donald-trump?ev_oc_grp_ids=2944322
  • Some of the bookies also don't know that impeachment doesn't equal leaving office.

    This is the big one. Impeachment is heavily odds-on, I think. Trump to be impeached in 2019 @ 7/1 is the bet of the year (so far!)

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/donald-trump?ev_oc_grp_ids=2944322
    Good spot.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,196

    Some of the bookies also don't know that impeachment doesn't equal leaving office.

    This is the big one. Impeachment is heavily odds-on, I think. Trump to be impeached in 2019 @ 7/1 is the bet of the year (so far!)

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/donald-trump?ev_oc_grp_ids=2944322
    50/1 on 2020 is also too big.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,059
    Mr. Price, why do you think it's so likely?
  • Some of the bookies also don't know that impeachment doesn't equal leaving office.

    This is the big one. Impeachment is heavily odds-on, I think. Trump to be impeached in 2019 @ 7/1 is the bet of the year (so far!)

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/donald-trump?ev_oc_grp_ids=2944322
    50/1 on 2020 is also too big.
    Impeaching in an election year?

    That would be awesome.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,642
    "One of the UK's most prolific rapists, John Worboys, is to be freed from jail.

    The taxi driver carried out more than 100 rapes and sexual assaults on women who were passengers in his cab after giving them drug-laced drinks between 2002 and 2008."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42571219
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,196

    For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    That's all but impossible. But the Senate would have convicted Nixon, I think - so it's probably down to Mueller. A dramatic resignation can't be ruled out either - he might think it beats losing in 2020, or not running because you're going to lose.

    All in all it's a good market :)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,196

    Mr. Price, why do you think it's so likely?

    Because the Democrats will control the House and come under enormous pressure from their own base to impeach him for something.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,860

    I've always wondered what would happen if Mike Pence assassinated Trump?

    I'd assume Pence would become President but either be impeached but Section IV of the XXV Amendment might be tricky.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    edited January 4

    King Cole, this shows the wisdom of my non-cruckling policy.

    Vote Morris Dancer to stand firm against cruckling!

    Very uncomfortable act, I promise you.

    Returning to Topic, I’m irresistably reminded of one of Patrick Dennis’ books, First Lady. The story of a crook who "stole" the US presidency for thirty days at the turn of the 20th century. He had managed to hide the votes of, IIRC, most of New York State.
    I must see if our local library has or can get a copy.
  • For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    That's all but impossible. But the Senate would have convicted Nixon, I think - so it's probably down to Mueller. A dramatic resignation can't be ruled out either - he might think it beats losing in 2020, or not running because you're going to lose.

    All in all it's a good market :)
    It is.

    The one good thing about Mrs May calling last year's snap election is that we're spared having both a UK general election and a US Presidential election in 2020.

    I'm not sure I'd have the energy to deal with both in one year.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,042
    I don't like the man, but isn't all this a bit ghoulish?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,059
    Mr. Price, fair enough.

    Doesn't seem to be the same market with Betfair/Ladbrokes, so I won't be partaking, but cheers for the tip nevertheless.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,095

    I don't like the man, but isn't all this a bit ghoulish?

    No, it's considering a realistic contingency for an overweight septugenarian in an extremely stressful job.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,911

    For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    That's all but impossible. But the Senate would have convicted Nixon, I think - so it's probably down to Mueller. A dramatic resignation can't be ruled out either - he might think it beats losing in 2020, or not running because you're going to lose.

    All in all it's a good market :)
    It is.

    The one good thing about Mrs May calling last year's snap election is that we're spared having both a UK general election and a US Presidential election in 2020.

    I'm not sure I'd have the energy to deal with both in one year.
    Not necessarily. If she delivered Brexit and then quit it is possible her successor would seek to contrive an election to get his or her own mandate in the same way as May did. Well, hopefully not exactly the same but you know what I mean.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,023

    For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    Given Mercer has now stopped funding Bannon over this there is zero chance of an alt-right/republican split so I agree with you about the Senate.

    To be honest I still think holding steady n the senate will be an achievement for the Dems.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,095
    On topic, it should also be noted from the definitions Mike's quoted that Ladbrokes does not include incapacity within their bet. That rules out Trump's removal via the 25th amendment, which is not a trivial possibility (though it would require Pence's assent so would probably have to be a genuinely incapacitating illness rather than a political coup).
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,576

    FPT. Mr Dancer, cruckling is a Rochdale area word for an activity which would be disastrous for a dancer. It’s the temporary going over on ones ankle.

    Now I have a word for what I did when dancing to S Club 7 in the wee hours of Monday morning.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,095

    For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    They may not need to. They didn't have 67 senators in 1974.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,095

    Some of the bookies also don't know that impeachment doesn't equal leaving office.

    This is the big one. Impeachment is heavily odds-on, I think. Trump to be impeached in 2019 @ 7/1 is the bet of the year (so far!)

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/donald-trump?ev_oc_grp_ids=2944322
    50/1 on 2020 is also too big.
    Impeaching in an election year?

    That would be awesome.
    It's unlikely but not 50/1 unlikely.
  • For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    They may not need to. They didn't have 67 senators in 1974.
    Senators then were more honourable.

    There's enough GOP Senators gunning for Mueller to make me think they wont impeach even if they are given prima facie evidence of Trump handing the nuclear codes to Putin.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,059
    Mr. Essexit, well, quite.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 101
    DavidL said:

    Not necessarily. If she delivered Brexit and then quit it is possible her successor would seek to contrive an election to get his or her own mandate in the same way as May did. Well, hopefully not exactly the same but you know what I mean.

    I'm reasonably convinced (but not being a betting man won't put any money on it) that 2020 is the likely year for the next UK General election.

    A minority government, DUP being a bit flaky as partners and May likely leaving in 2019 means a 2020 election by the new leader to get their own mandate looks reasonably likely.

    Certainly not improbable.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    Essexit said:

    FPT. Mr Dancer, cruckling is a Rochdale area word for an activity which would be disastrous for a dancer. It’s the temporary going over on ones ankle.

    Now I have a word for what I did when dancing to S Club 7 in the wee hours of Monday morning.
    Always happy to help.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,095

    For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    They may not need to. They didn't have 67 senators in 1974.
    Senators then were more honourable.

    There's enough GOP Senators gunning for Mueller to make me think they wont impeach even if they are given prima facie evidence of Trump handing the nuclear codes to Putin.
    They also have their own seats to think about. Those up in 2020 might decide that they don't want to fight an election with Trump at the top of the ticket if 2018 turns out to be as bad as the current raw numbers suggest it might be.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,546
    edited January 4
    I believe you have to go back to 1945 for the last occasion this happened. Off topic what price can you get for Manchester City not winning the EPL ? I have seen 100 to 1 on for them to win it.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,196
    edited January 4

    For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    They may not need to. They didn't have 67 senators in 1974.
    Senators then were more honourable.

    There's enough GOP Senators gunning for Mueller to make me think they wont impeach even if they are given prima facie evidence of Trump handing the nuclear codes to Putin.
    You only need about a third of the Republicans (c. 17/50) to vote for it and, even setting aside honour, there'd probably be enough of them for whom it made electoral sense.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,059
    Anyone reckon Zuckerberg might have a crack? And, if he did, would that be as an independent or from within a party?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,095

    On topic, it should also be noted from the definitions Mike's quoted that Ladbrokes does not include incapacity within their bet. That rules out Trump's removal via the 25th amendment, which is not a trivial possibility (though it would require Pence's assent so would probably have to be a genuinely incapacitating illness rather than a political coup).

    Actually, having just checked, the 25th amendment *doesn't* remove the president from office; it just transfers his powers to the VP, who governs as Acting President. How Betfair would resolve that one is anyone's guess as the definition could be read either way but to me, the stronger interpretation would be that he has to go from office and that just a transfer of powers, under the 25th Amendment, wouldn't be enough.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,096

    Anyone reckon Zuckerberg might have a crack? And, if he did, would that be as an independent or from within a party?

    Are you tempted by the Zuckerberg/(Dwayne) Johnson ticket at odds of 200-1 winning in 2020 with Paddy Power :) ?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,196

    Anyone reckon Zuckerberg might have a crack? And, if he did, would that be as an independent or from within a party?

    I think he clearly had designs on competing for the Democratic nomination. But now that he's been painted as the Trump-enabler-in-chief I can't see that working.

    Oprah would be my celebrity Democratic horse to back.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,059
    edited January 4
    Mr. Pulpstar, that's an extremely silly comment. I just said I don't have a Paddy Power account :p

    I genuinely think there's a chance he might have a crack at it at some point. Odds against, but he's got the cash to do it.

    And, if that sounds silly, I'd remind the site that we currently have Trump as president.

    Edited extra bit: well, the Americans do.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,346
    edited January 4

    For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    I agree. That is my betting position too. The only downsides are if he dies in office (2-5% chance) and if he resigns in a fit of pique because he is fed up with the whole show (10-20% chance I reckon). So I think he has a 75% chance of lasting his term (compared to the 50% implied by Betfair). I'm backing him staying the course.

    I think the chance of him standing again in 2020 is around 50% (no chance if he doesn't last the course), the chance of him winning the nomination if he does stand again is about 50% (novelty value gone), and the chance of him winning the election if he wins the nomination is about 30%. So a 7.5% chance i.e. about 15s on Betfair (compared with about 3.5 shown there now). I'm heavily laying him being the next President.
  • Anyone reckon Zuckerberg might have a crack? And, if he did, would that be as an independent or from within a party?

    I think he clearly had designs on competing for the Democratic nomination. But now that he's been painted as the Trump-enabler-in-chief I can't see that working.

    Oprah would be my celebrity Democratic horse to back.
    I have a bet slip somewhere on it being Michelle Obama.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,059
    Cheers, Mr. Price.

    Mr. Eagles, she certainly seemed popular but I thought she really wasn't interested?
  • That said if Michael Flynn does rat on the Trumps and it looks like Don Junior, Jarad/Ivanka or Don himself might be indicted or do prison time I can see Trump doing something sensational which sees the entire Senate voting to convict.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,291
    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???
  • The other factor about Trump, like Corbyn, nobody ever got rich by underestimating him.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    Can Obama run again? I know a President can only serve two consecutive terms, but is it two terms for ever and ever?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,059
    Mr. Nabavi, don't have much to play with myself, but I think Mr. Smithson tipped her last year for the nomination at 26, now has (a little) to lay at 6.6 on Betfair.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,196

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-way-too-early-2020-democratic-primary-draft/
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,443

    Repost FPT as now spookilly on-topic:

    Team Trump now turned to book-banning:

    'Lawyers for US President Donald Trump are seeking to stop the release of a book containing explosive insights into his presidency, US media report.'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42570555

    That should boost sales a bit.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,196

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-way-too-early-2020-democratic-primary-draft/
    Al Franken not looking such a good pick now, of course.
  • Can Obama run again? I know a President can only serve two consecutive terms, but is it two terms for ever and ever?

    He can't be President ever again barring a change to the constitution.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,512
    edited January 4

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2020
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,095

    Can Obama run again? I know a President can only serve two consecutive terms, but is it two terms for ever and ever?

    No, and yes, respectively.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,929

    Can Obama run again? I know a President can only serve two consecutive terms, but is it two terms for ever and ever?

    "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once."

    Amendment XXII
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,096
    I'm following Mr Meeks in on the brexit market:

    UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019 @ 2.32 !

    We'll 'leave' with a transition deal where nothing much changes for about the next 4 or 5 years. But we'll be out.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,196
    HYUFD said:

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%
    I'm not sure how much value NH polls this far out have. By which I mean they don't have much.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    edited January 4
    Mr Eagles, Mr R Borough and Mr H; thank you. Just wondered.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,392

    For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    They may not need to. They didn't have 67 senators in 1974.
    Senators then were more honourable.

    There's enough GOP Senators gunning for Mueller to make me think they wont impeach even if they are given prima facie evidence of Trump handing the nuclear codes to Putin.
    You only need about a third of the Republicans (c. 17/50) to vote for it and, even setting aside honour, there'd probably be enough of them for whom it made electoral sense.
    Most senators would like Trump to disappear. The 2018 midterms have been written off for the Republicans - luckily for them it probably won't upset their representation in the Senate. They will want someone else representing them in 2020 when there are 22 Republican incumbents up against 11 Democrats. I suspect a deal to allow Trump to see out his term but commit to not standing again. In that case they won't be minded to impeach.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm following Mr Meeks in on the brexit market:

    UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019 @ 2.32 !

    We'll 'leave' with a transition deal where nothing much changes for about the next 4 or 5 years. But we'll be out.

    And we’ll have blue passports.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,291
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm following Mr Meeks in on the brexit market:

    UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019 @ 2.32 !

    We'll 'leave' with a transition deal where nothing much changes for about the next 4 or 5 years. But we'll be out.

    It's the outstanding bet in the entire political betting market IMO.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,095

    Can Obama run again? I know a President can only serve two consecutive terms, but is it two terms for ever and ever?

    No, and yes, respectively.
    That said, there are possible loopholes, including that a termed-out president may be eligible to serve as a VP and could succeed to the top job. (The 22nd Amendment only bars someone from being elected president, not from serving at all).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,929

    Repost FPT as now spookilly on-topic:

    Team Trump now turned to book-banning:

    'Lawyers for US President Donald Trump are seeking to stop the release of a book containing explosive insights into his presidency, US media report.'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42570555

    That should boost sales a bit.


    on other hand, may all be fake news:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/michael-wolff-tells-a-juicy-tale-in-his-new-trump-book-but-should-we-believe-it/2018/01/03/d46f31c6-f0b2-11e7-97bf-bba379b809ab_story.html?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.991aaa7226f8

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,096

    HYUFD said:

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%
    I'm not sure how much value NH polls this far out have. By which I mean they don't have much.
    President Jeb Bush disagrees.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,196
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%
    I'm not sure how much value NH polls this far out have. By which I mean they don't have much.
    President Jeb! Bush disagrees.
    FTFY
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,929

    HYUFD said:

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%
    I'm not sure how much value NH polls this far out have. By which I mean they don't have much.
    The BF market is a bit crap. Doesn't even have newest junior Kennedy on there.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,196

    HYUFD said:

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%
    I'm not sure how much value NH polls this far out have. By which I mean they don't have much.
    The BF market is a bit crap. Doesn't even have newest junior Kennedy on there.
    Ask (@BetfairCS on Twitter is easiest) and they will add. Then sit back and wait for the bots to push the price out :p
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,512

    HYUFD said:

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%
    I'm not sure how much value NH polls this far out have. By which I mean they don't have much.
    The BF market is a bit crap. Doesn't even have newest junior Kennedy on there.
    I can't see him running in 2020, he is not even a Senator or Governor yet, 2024 maybe
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 564

    Can Obama run again? I know a President can only serve two consecutive terms, but is it two terms for ever and ever?

    No, and yes, respectively.
    That said, there are possible loopholes, including that a termed-out president may be eligible to serve as a VP and could succeed to the top job. (The 22nd Amendment only bars someone from being elected president, not from serving at all).
    I think I'm right in saying that term-expired President is also blocked from being elected as VP (because the qualifications for VP are defined as the same as those for the Presidency) but there's nothing to stop a term-expired Prez from being appointed as VP in the event of a vacancy and then themselves succeeding.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,512

    HYUFD said:

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%
    I'm not sure how much value NH polls this far out have. By which I mean they don't have much.
    They tend to have more than national polls. Plus Sanders won New Hampshire last time and lost Iowa by less than 1% so that already gives him an advantage over the rest of the field. If he wins both early states he will almost certainly be Democratic nominee
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%
    I'm not sure how much value NH polls this far out have. By which I mean they don't have much.
    They tend to have more than national polls. Plus Sanders won New Hampshire last time and lost Iowa by less than 1% so that already gives him an advantage over the rest of the field. If he wins both early states he will almost certainly be Democratic nominee
    What were the New Hampshire polls saying in January 2014?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,096
    I can't see it being Joe Kennedy. He's still under 40, and hasn't upgraded to his inevitable MA senate seat yet.
    He'll win when he runs, and if you follow his great Uncle's timeline then it leads to a run between 2024 and 2032.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 564

    On topic, it should also be noted from the definitions Mike's quoted that Ladbrokes does not include incapacity within their bet. That rules out Trump's removal via the 25th amendment, which is not a trivial possibility (though it would require Pence's assent so would probably have to be a genuinely incapacitating illness rather than a political coup).

    Actually, having just checked, the 25th amendment *doesn't* remove the president from office; it just transfers his powers to the VP, who governs as Acting President. How Betfair would resolve that one is anyone's guess as the definition could be read either way but to me, the stronger interpretation would be that he has to go from office and that just a transfer of powers, under the 25th Amendment, wouldn't be enough.
    Just had a look at the Wikipedia article on the 25th Amendment and it seems that if section 4 were invoked by the VP and Cabinet and Congress confirms it by a 2/3 majority of both houses, Trump still has the right to declare himself fit and require a further 2/3 vote of Congress to confirm his suspension within 21 days. It seems that this could go on indefinitely!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,196

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%
    I'm not sure how much value NH polls this far out have. By which I mean they don't have much.
    They tend to have more than national polls. Plus Sanders won New Hampshire last time and lost Iowa by less than 1% so that already gives him an advantage over the rest of the field. If he wins both early states he will almost certainly be Democratic nominee
    What were the New Hampshire polls saying in January 2014?
    Close between Rand Paul & Chris Christie for the Republican gig. Clinton overwhelming favourite for the Dems (click MAX on the graphs).

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,392
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm following Mr Meeks in on the brexit market:

    UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019 @ 2.32 !

    We'll 'leave' with a transition deal where nothing much changes for about the next 4 or 5 years. But we'll be out.

    Very low chance of not paying out IMO.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 564
    edited January 4

    For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    There are only eight Republican seats up for grabs this year so even if John McCain resigns or passes on this year in time for a special election to his seat in November, making it nine, the most that the Democrats can hope to achieve is 56 seats in the Senate. Add to that the two independents (Bernie and Angus King of Maine) who caucus with them, that makes 58 which wouldn't be enough to break a Senatorial filibuster even.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,512
    edited January 4

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%
    I'm not sure how much value NH polls this far out have. By which I mean they don't have much.
    They tend to have more than national polls. Plus Sanders won New Hampshire last time and lost Iowa by less than 1% so that already gives him an advantage over the rest of the field. If he wins both early states he will almost certainly be Democratic nominee
    What were the New Hampshire polls saying in January 2014?
    Trump led New Hampshire polls pretty soon after he was given as an option as he did nationally. Sanders is the one to beat and having won the state last time has a head start
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 564
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm following Mr Meeks in on the brexit market:

    UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019 @ 2.32 !

    We'll 'leave' with a transition deal where nothing much changes for about the next 4 or 5 years. But we'll be out.

    I thought the EU had said no transitional arrangements will continue past 31st December 2020.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%
    I'm not sure how much value NH polls this far out have. By which I mean they don't have much.
    They tend to have more than national polls. Plus Sanders won New Hampshire last time and lost Iowa by less than 1% so that already gives him an advantage over the rest of the field. If he wins both early states he will almost certainly be Democratic nominee
    What were the New Hampshire polls saying in January 2014?
    Close between Rand Paul & Chris Christie for the Republican gig. Clinton overwhelming favourite for the Dems (click MAX on the graphs).

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
    Cheers, so right now they are as accurate as Sion Simon prediction.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,403
    Has Michelle Obama given any indication either way on whether she might run?

    Although, on balance, she might see the Clinton route as not being a great precedent for President.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,512
    edited January 4

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can anyone explain why Kamala Harris is favourite for the 2020 Dem nomination? Sure, she is a possible contender and might get the gig, but favourite???

    Is she? The last New Hampshire poll from Granite State had her on just 1% behind even Booker and Zuckerberg. Sanders was first on 31%, Biden second on 24% and Warren third on 13%
    I'm not sure how much value NH polls this far out have. By which I mean they don't have much.
    They tend to have more than national polls. Plus Sanders won New Hampshire last time and lost Iowa by less than 1% so that already gives him an advantage over the rest of the field. If he wins both early states he will almost certainly be Democratic nominee
    What were the New Hampshire polls saying in January 2014?
    Close between Rand Paul & Chris Christie for the Republican gig. Clinton overwhelming favourite for the Dems (click MAX on the graphs).

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
    Cheers, so right now they are as accurate as Sion Simon prediction.
    McCain and Clinton were ahead in New Hampshire at this stage in 2005, Romney at this stage in 2009, they are often right. Plus Sanders already has a head start having won the state last time, if Sanders runs he is probably nominee in my view, he leads nationally too and he would have been nominee in 2016 had he got just 1% more in Iowa
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,096
    rpjs said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm following Mr Meeks in on the brexit market:

    UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019 @ 2.32 !

    We'll 'leave' with a transition deal where nothing much changes for about the next 4 or 5 years. But we'll be out.

    I thought the EU had said no transitional arrangements will continue past 31st December 2020.
    That might be so, but just look at Michael Gove's proposals today for the farmers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,491
    Yorkcity said:

    I believe you have to go back to 1945 for the last occasion this happened. Off topic what price can you get for Manchester City not winning the EPL ? I have seen 100 to 1 on for them to win it.

    Betfair have Man City at 1.03 to back, and 1.04 to lay. Seems more than a little short, not that I’m about to put anything on either side. Still a lot of season to go.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/event/2022802/market?marketId=1.131715484
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,095
    rpjs said:

    Can Obama run again? I know a President can only serve two consecutive terms, but is it two terms for ever and ever?

    No, and yes, respectively.
    That said, there are possible loopholes, including that a termed-out president may be eligible to serve as a VP and could succeed to the top job. (The 22nd Amendment only bars someone from being elected president, not from serving at all).
    I think I'm right in saying that term-expired President is also blocked from being elected as VP (because the qualifications for VP are defined as the same as those for the Presidency) but there's nothing to stop a term-expired Prez from being appointed as VP in the event of a vacancy and then themselves succeeding.
    That's debatable. There are arguments both ways and it'd probably need a SCOTUS ruling to decide.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,392
    Barnesian said:

    For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    I agree. That is my betting position too. The only downsides are if he dies in office (2-5% chance) and if he resigns in a fit of pique because he is fed up with the whole show (10-20% chance I reckon). So I think he has a 75% chance of lasting his term (compared to the 50% implied by Betfair). I'm backing him staying the course.

    I think the chance of him standing again in 2020 is around 50% (no chance if he doesn't last the course), the chance of him winning the nomination if he does stand again is about 50% (novelty value gone), and the chance of him winning the election if he wins the nomination is about 30%. So a 7.5% chance i.e. about 15s on Betfair (compared with about 3.5 shown there now). I'm heavily laying him being the next President.
    I agree with your strategy of betting Trump will be president until 2020 and will not be re-elected then. However his chances of falling at each stage of the re-election process are not independent of each other, so cumulatively he has a higher than 7.5% chance of making it through to the presidency. Primary voters will choose another candidate if they reckon Trump's chances are slight at the GE. Trump won't stand for re-election if he thinks he won't be nominated. The 30% chance of winning the GE assumes a much higher probability of him getting through the preliminary stages IMO. I would guess Trump has a 20% - 25% chance of being the next president, which is still a bit better than the odds offered.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,491

    Has Michelle Obama given any indication either way on whether she might run?

    Although, on balance, she might see the Clinton route as not being a great precedent for President.....

    AIUI she’s said precisely nothing on the subject, as one would expect. There’s lots of people who would like to see her run though, hopefully they’ll keep putting money on her.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 967

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm following Mr Meeks in on the brexit market:

    UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019 @ 2.32 !

    We'll 'leave' with a transition deal where nothing much changes for about the next 4 or 5 years. But we'll be out.

    It's the outstanding bet in the entire political betting market IMO.
    Are any normal bookies offering about 2.3, as opposed to exchanges?
    Ta.

    By the way this voter appears to regret his choice
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-eu-migrant-workers-fruit-farm-harry-hall-hunter-partnership-bbc-radio-4-today-a7802381.html
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,291
    Sandpit said:

    Has Michelle Obama given any indication either way on whether she might run?

    Although, on balance, she might see the Clinton route as not being a great precedent for President.....

    AIUI she’s said precisely nothing on the subject, as one would expect. There’s lots of people who would like to see her run though, hopefully they’ll keep putting money on her.
    She has spoken on the subject, with a pretty strong denial:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/michelle-obama-oprah-winfrey-cbs-interview-not-run-barack-obama-2020-first-lady-donald-trump-a7486151.html
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,217
    No comment here on Gove's farming initiative?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,929
    Pulpstar said:

    I can't see it being Joe Kennedy. He's still under 40, and hasn't upgraded to his inevitable MA senate seat yet.
    He'll win when he runs, and if you follow his great Uncle's timeline then it leads to a run between 2024 and 2032.

    12/1 on BF sportsbook
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,491

    Sandpit said:

    Has Michelle Obama given any indication either way on whether she might run?

    Although, on balance, she might see the Clinton route as not being a great precedent for President.....

    AIUI she’s said precisely nothing on the subject, as one would expect. There’s lots of people who would like to see her run though, hopefully they’ll keep putting money on her.
    She has spoken on the subject, with a pretty strong denial:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/michelle-obama-oprah-winfrey-cbs-interview-not-run-barack-obama-2020-first-lady-donald-trump-a7486151.html
    Ah, that hard-hitting political interviewer Oprah! Thanks for pointing out, definitely still a lay. I’ll stick by my opinion that others are projecting on to her, she’s not going to be a runner in 2020.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,392
    rpjs said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm following Mr Meeks in on the brexit market:

    UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019 @ 2.32 !

    We'll 'leave' with a transition deal where nothing much changes for about the next 4 or 5 years. But we'll be out.

    I thought the EU had said no transitional arrangements will continue past 31st December 2020.
    No-one ever does an fully comprehensive FTA with immediate effect within two years. Half the time they don't happen at all, which is a real possibility for our one. Something major will have to give. Either we just sign on the dotted line to everything the EU proposes so nothing can hold up the deal, we sign up for the EEA + CU, we crash out without a preferential trade deal or the can gets kicked down the road.

    This however happens after we leave. The bet should be safe.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,300

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm following Mr Meeks in on the brexit market:

    UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019 @ 2.32 !

    We'll 'leave' with a transition deal where nothing much changes for about the next 4 or 5 years. But we'll be out.

    It's the outstanding bet in the entire political betting market IMO.
    Are any normal bookies offering about 2.3, as opposed to exchanges?
    Ta.

    By the way this voter appears to regret his choice
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-eu-migrant-workers-fruit-farm-harry-hall-hunter-partnership-bbc-radio-4-today-a7802381.html
    I remember thinking that if we left we'd end up with Somalis rather than Romanians. Even now I can't imagine a way won't be found to keep these kinds of concerns in business. The wishes of the people who object have been ignored so far and I can't see why that is going to change.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,023

    Has Michelle Obama given any indication either way on whether she might run?

    Although, on balance, she might see the Clinton route as not being a great precedent for President.....

    She has given a categorical no to the question before but, hey, it's politics so never say never.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,929
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Has Michelle Obama given any indication either way on whether she might run?

    Although, on balance, she might see the Clinton route as not being a great precedent for President.....

    AIUI she’s said precisely nothing on the subject, as one would expect. There’s lots of people who would like to see her run though, hopefully they’ll keep putting money on her.
    She has spoken on the subject, with a pretty strong denial:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/michelle-obama-oprah-winfrey-cbs-interview-not-run-barack-obama-2020-first-lady-donald-trump-a7486151.html
    Ah, that hard-hitting political interviewer Oprah! Thanks for pointing out, definitely still a lay. I’ll stick by my opinion that others are projecting on to her, she’s not going to be a runner in 2020.
    Personally, I think it needs to be someone who has governing experience in Congress or Senate.

    There will be such a god awful mess to clear up after Trump it is going to need a LBJ-type figure who can bang heads together, broker cross-party deals etc. In other words... govern.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,614

    Repost FPT as now spookilly on-topic:

    Team Trump now turned to book-banning:

    'Lawyers for US President Donald Trump are seeking to stop the release of a book containing explosive insights into his presidency, US media report.'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42570555

    That should boost sales a bit.


    on other hand, may all be fake news:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/michael-wolff-tells-a-juicy-tale-in-his-new-trump-book-but-should-we-believe-it/2018/01/03/d46f31c6-f0b2-11e7-97bf-bba379b809ab_story.html?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.991aaa7226f8

    I knew a lot of the people involved in Burn Rate. It was an assisted description of the implosion of Wolff New Media. (Albeit he chose to leave a few things out that didn't reflect well on him.)
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,546
    edited January 4
    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    I believe you have to go back to 1945 for the last occasion this happened. Off topic what price can you get for Manchester City not winning the EPL ? I have seen 100 to 1 on for them to win it.

    Betfair have Man City at 1.03 to back, and 1.04 to lay. Seems more than a little short, not that I’m about to put anything on either side. Still a lot of season to go.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/event/2022802/market?marketId=1.131715484
    Hard to see them loosing it.But as you say very short either way on Betfair Thanks for the info.Also watching them I have never seen in my life a goalkeeper pass and distribute the ball as good as the current man city one.Jo Hart could never reach that standard with the ball.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,491

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Has Michelle Obama given any indication either way on whether she might run?

    Although, on balance, she might see the Clinton route as not being a great precedent for President.....

    AIUI she’s said precisely nothing on the subject, as one would expect. There’s lots of people who would like to see her run though, hopefully they’ll keep putting money on her.
    She has spoken on the subject, with a pretty strong denial:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/michelle-obama-oprah-winfrey-cbs-interview-not-run-barack-obama-2020-first-lady-donald-trump-a7486151.html
    Ah, that hard-hitting political interviewer Oprah! Thanks for pointing out, definitely still a lay. I’ll stick by my opinion that others are projecting on to her, she’s not going to be a runner in 2020.
    Personally, I think it needs to be someone who has governing experience in Congress or Senate.

    There will be such a god awful mess to clear up after Trump it is going to need a LBJ-type figure who can bang heads together, broker cross-party deals etc. In other words... govern.
    Indeed, and the Dems have a great opportunity to win in 2020 if they have the right candidate.

    They need to assume that their opponent will be Trump and go hard with someone who can appeal to his base though. If they pick someone who’ll go on about bathrooms while their opponent is going on about jobs they’ll lose again though.

    There’s definitely some similarities with the British markets for next party leaders, with inexplicably short prices for the likes of David Miliband or Ruth Davidson. I’m staying out of the US markets for a few months yet, maybe we’ll have a sense of the runners and riders after the mid-terms in November.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,346
    FF43 said:

    Barnesian said:

    For the record my betting position is that Trump will serve a full term, I cannot see the Dems getting anywhere near 67 Senators this year.

    I agree. That is my betting position too. The only downsides are if he dies in office (2-5% chance) and if he resigns in a fit of pique because he is fed up with the whole show (10-20% chance I reckon). So I think he has a 75% chance of lasting his term (compared to the 50% implied by Betfair). I'm backing him staying the course.

    I think the chance of him standing again in 2020 is around 50% (no chance if he doesn't last the course), the chance of him winning the nomination if he does stand again is about 50% (novelty value gone), and the chance of him winning the election if he wins the nomination is about 30%. So a 7.5% chance i.e. about 15s on Betfair (compared with about 3.5 shown there now). I'm heavily laying him being the next President.
    I agree with your strategy of betting Trump will be president until 2020 and will not be re-elected then. However his chances of falling at each stage of the re-election process are not independent of each other, so cumulatively he has a higher than 7.5% chance of making it through to the presidency. Primary voters will choose another candidate if they reckon Trump's chances are slight at the GE. Trump won't stand for re-election if he thinks he won't be nominated. The 30% chance of winning the GE assumes a much higher probability of him getting through the preliminary stages IMO. I would guess Trump has a 20% - 25% chance of being the next president, which is still a bit better than the odds offered.
    If, during the nomination process, he is seen to have only a 30% chance of winning the GE, surely that would reduce the probability of him being nominated? I take your general point that they are not independent probabilities but I have framed them as conditional on the previous stage. P(A|B)*P(B|C)*P(C).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,279
    geoffw said:

    No comment here on Gove's farming initiative?

    If farmers and landowners receive their allocation from the magic money tree in return for supporting wildlife then that is an improvement on being given handouts to destroy habitat.

This discussion has been closed.