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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why TMay should wait to reshuffle her cabinet

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited January 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why TMay should wait to reshuffle her cabinet

One of the easier predictions I thought I’d made in a twitter string earlier this week was that Theresa May wouldn’t engage in a voluntary major reshuffle of her cabinet this year. Within two hours of me doing so, the political twittersphere was alive with speculation and supposedly informed comment that just such a reshuffle was imminent – talk that Number Ten did little to dampen.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,720
    First, like Mrs May.

    And well argued piece, that I firmly agree with. Thanks David.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,228
    Mortimer said:

    First, like Mrs May.

    And well argued piece, that I firmly agree with. Thanks David.

    No, I was, but Vanilla ate my homework.

    Have we actually had since Maggie a PM who really relished reshuffles?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,389
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mortimer said:

    First, like Mrs May.

    And well argued piece, that I firmly agree with. Thanks David.

    No, I was, but Vanilla ate my homework.

    Have we actually had since Maggie a PM who really relished reshuffles?
    Don't know if he enjoyed it, but Blair got plenty of practice. Usually because of some departing Home Secretary. Or Mandelson.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    edited January 6
    It is not just Leavers who are suggested to be for demotion or the axe in any reshuffle, Greg Clark, Sir Patrick Mcloughlin, Sajid Javid and Justine Greening are also said to be under threat and all were Remainers.

    Boris and Davis are basically unsackable, they are, along with Mogg and Gove, the main contenders to succeed May and both have a strong base within the parliamentary party and significant membership support. There has been no suggestion Davis will actually be removed from his Brexit negotiator post and Boris at most has been suggested as being given a new beefed up Brexit post in the Business Department.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,879
    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,127
    Strong chance? Racing certainty more like.

    I agree with everything you say but I think she is still going to have to go ahead with some changes. Green's resignation leaves a hole that she has to fill, and there have been whispers for a long time that Macloughlin wants to leave anyway (plus he's hardly been a success as Party Chairman).

    It is ironic to reflect however that this problem is caused by her own rigid adherence to both the spirit and the letter of the rules. If she had the lackadaisical approach Corbyn has towards discipline Fallon and Green would both still be in place. Yet it is she who looks weak as a result.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    edited January 6
    ydoethur said:

    Strong chance? Racing certainty more like.

    I agree with everything you say but I think she is still going to have to go ahead with some changes. Green's resignation leaves a hole that she has to fill, and there have been whispers for a long time that Macloughlin wants to leave anyway (plus he's hardly been a success as Party Chairman).

    It is ironic to reflect however that this problem is caused by her own rigid adherence to both the spirit and the letter of the rules. If she had the lackadaisical approach Corbyn has towards discipline Fallon and Green would both still be in place. Yet it is she who looks weak as a result.

    Corbyn sacked 3 frontbenchers for voting for Chuka Umunna's amendment to stay permanently in the single market and customs union after Brexit

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40451301
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,252
    ydoethur said:

    Strong chance? Racing certainty more like.

    I agree with everything you say but I think she is still going to have to go ahead with some changes. Green's resignation leaves a hole that she has to fill, and there have been whispers for a long time that Macloughlin wants to leave anyway (plus he's hardly been a success as Party Chairman).

    It is ironic to reflect however that this problem is caused by her own rigid adherence to both the spirit and the letter of the rules. If she had the lackadaisical approach Corbyn has towards discipline Fallon and Green would both still be in place. Yet it is she who looks weak as a result.

    That is because she is weak weak weak, could not run a bath.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,589
    Very good piece, which it's hard to disagree with.

    As soon as I saw the speculation in the newspapers about the reshuffle, I thought it might not happen.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,879
    ydoethur said:

    Strong chance? Racing certainty more like.

    I agree with everything you say but I think she is still going to have to go ahead with some changes. Green's resignation leaves a hole that she has to fill, and there have been whispers for a long time that Macloughlin wants to leave anyway (plus he's hardly been a success as Party Chairman).

    It is ironic to reflect however that this problem is caused by her own rigid adherence to both the spirit and the letter of the rules. If she had the lackadaisical approach Corbyn has towards discipline Fallon and Green would both still be in place. Yet it is she who looks weak as a result.

    Perhaps her big mistake was not to have Chakrabarti do the investigations for her.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,127
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Strong chance? Racing certainty more like.

    I agree with everything you say but I think she is still going to have to go ahead with some changes. Green's resignation leaves a hole that she has to fill, and there have been whispers for a long time that Macloughlin wants to leave anyway (plus he's hardly been a success as Party Chairman).

    It is ironic to reflect however that this problem is caused by her own rigid adherence to both the spirit and the letter of the rules. If she had the lackadaisical approach Corbyn has towards discipline Fallon and Green would both still be in place. Yet it is she who looks weak as a result.

    Corbyn sacked 3 frontbenchers for voting for Chuka Umunna's amendment to stay permanently in the single market and customs union after Brexit

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40451301
    That was political. How many frontbenchers had he sacked following allegations of inappropriate behaviour?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,589
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Strong chance? Racing certainty more like.

    I agree with everything you say but I think she is still going to have to go ahead with some changes. Green's resignation leaves a hole that she has to fill, and there have been whispers for a long time that Macloughlin wants to leave anyway (plus he's hardly been a success as Party Chairman).

    It is ironic to reflect however that this problem is caused by her own rigid adherence to both the spirit and the letter of the rules. If she had the lackadaisical approach Corbyn has towards discipline Fallon and Green would both still be in place. Yet it is she who looks weak as a result.

    Perhaps her big mistake was not to have Chakrabarti do the investigations for her.
    Like.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,690
    Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    edited January 6
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Strong chance? Racing certainty more like.

    I agree with everything you say but I think she is still going to have to go ahead with some changes. Green's resignation leaves a hole that she has to fill, and there have been whispers for a long time that Macloughlin wants to leave anyway (plus he's hardly been a success as Party Chairman).

    It is ironic to reflect however that this problem is caused by her own rigid adherence to both the spirit and the letter of the rules. If she had the lackadaisical approach Corbyn has towards discipline Fallon and Green would both still be in place. Yet it is she who looks weak as a result.

    Corbyn sacked 3 frontbenchers for voting for Chuka Umunna's amendment to stay permanently in the single market and customs union after Brexit

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40451301
    That was political. How many frontbenchers had he sacked following allegations of inappropriate behaviour?
    Apart from Clive Lewis who resigned from the frontbench in February anyway, I don't think any Labour Shadow Cabinet Ministers have had allegations about personal inappropriate behaviour, although a number of Labour backbenchers have
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    edited January 6

    Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.

    Gove has too much support amongst the parliamentary party and the membership to be moved
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,239
    These are not normal times and normal rules don't apply. TMay was in very weak position following GE17 and her main objective was to preserve her own job which she did. The DGreen exit means that there has to be change and this is a chance to promote 2015 and 2017 entrants.

    David totally right about the abysmal Tory PR operation which is so crucial though as is stated above this isn't TMay.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 608
    The only point of a reshuffle would be to cut out the dead wood -and to bring in new blood which, given time, could succeed May when she goes post 2019/2020. At the time of writing the best person to succeed May would be Gavin Williamson. He is young and fresh and clever and would reinvent the Tories and the government. The Tories need more such younger Tories in the cabinet, and the Old Gang is blocking that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,824

    Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.

    Agreed, though I noted his saying at the Real Farming Conference when asked if his reforms would succeed him, he didn't say "That's a hypothetical question", he said "My successor will..." Not sure how much to read into that.

    The BBC interviewers who did me on Wednesday were convinced that a reshuffle will happen this week - stated it as known fact rather than opinion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494

    Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.

    Agreed, though I noted his saying at the Real Farming Conference when asked if his reforms would succeed him, he didn't say "That's a hypothetical question", he said "My successor will..." Not sure how much to read into that.

    The BBC interviewers who did me on Wednesday were convinced that a reshuffle will happen this week - stated it as known fact rather than opinion.
    Thought you came across very well in your interview Nick
  • But she needs a replacement for Green.

    All those important cabinet committees aren’t going to chair themselves.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    stevef said:

    The only point of a reshuffle would be to cut out the dead wood -and to bring in new blood which, given time, could succeed May when she goes post 2019/2020. At the time of writing the best person to succeed May would be Gavin Williamson. He is young and fresh and clever and would reinvent the Tories and the government. The Tories need more such younger Tories in the cabinet, and the Old Gang is blocking that.

    John Major was relatively young at 47 when he became PM in 1990, though still older than Williamson but it was the removal of Howe and Lawson which allowed him to become Foreign Secretary then Chancellor and have a big Cabinet post thus enabling him to be seen as a potential successor to Thatcher and an alternative to Heseltine
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,824

    Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.

    Incidentally, it's an irony of politics that if you do well at a job you may miss out on promotion because the PM wants you to keep doing it, but if you're crap then you may get promoted to a different job if the PM can't afford to sack you and hopes you'll be less crap at something else.

    I really hope he stays where he is, but he'd be an impressive replacement for Davis.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,460
    HYUFD said:

    Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.

    Gove has too much support amongst the parliamentary party and the membership to be moved
    Unless of course he’s to move to No.11 or DExEU.

    I can’t see more than a limited reshuffle to be honest, we know McLaughlin wants to move on, Green resigned before Christmas and a few promotions of the talent from 2015 needs to happen sooner rather than later though. Hunt would be a good promotion (unrelated to my 100/1 bet on him as next leader) but it’s probably too difficult to move him out of Health in the middle of winter.

    Maybe a wider reshuffle in the summer instead?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,937

    These are not normal times and normal rules don't apply. TMay was in very weak position following GE17 and her main objective was to preserve her own job which she did. The DGreen exit means that there has to be change and this is a chance to promote 2015 and 2017 entrants.

    David totally right about the abysmal Tory PR operation which is so crucial though as is stated above this isn't TMay.

    Is there any pressing need to replace Green as DPM ?
    Perhaps reshuffling her media team, and arranging a straightforward replacement of the Party Chair (who apparently wished to leave anyway) would be the best solution for the time being ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,589

    Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.

    Incidentally, it's an irony of politics that if you do well at a job you may miss out on promotion because the PM wants you to keep doing it, but if you're crap then you may get promoted to a different job if the PM can't afford to sack you and hopes you'll be less crap at something else.

    I really hope he stays where he is, but he'd be an impressive replacement for Davis.
    He would, but I don't think he will move into that role as he'd clash with May too much.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    edited January 6

    Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.

    Incidentally, it's an irony of politics that if you do well at a job you may miss out on promotion because the PM wants you to keep doing it, but if you're crap then you may get promoted to a different job if the PM can't afford to sack you and hopes you'll be less crap at something else.

    I really hope he stays where he is, but he'd be an impressive replacement for Davis.
    Though Gove would likely take a harder line on regulatory alignment and the length of any transition period which could complicate things with Barnier
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,539

    But she needs a replacement for Green.

    All those important cabinet committees aren’t going to chair themselves.

    Will this help May loosing anymore government appointments ? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/warning-age-checks-porn-sites-risks-pushing-children-dark-web/ Age verification for porn sites they are pressing ahead even with concerns.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.

    Gove has too much support amongst the parliamentary party and the membership to be moved
    Unless of course he’s to move to No.11 or DExEU.

    I can’t see more than a limited reshuffle to be honest, we know McLaughlin wants to move on, Green resigned before Christmas and a few promotions of the talent from 2015 needs to happen sooner rather than later though. Hunt would be a good promotion (unrelated to my 100/1 bet on him as next leader) but it’s probably too difficult to move him out of Health in the middle of winter.

    Maybe a wider reshuffle in the summer instead?
    After the local elections may be better yes
  • Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.

    Incidentally, it's an irony of politics that if you do well at a job you may miss out on promotion because the PM wants you to keep doing it, but if you're crap then you may get promoted to a different job if the PM can't afford to sack you and hopes you'll be less crap at something else.

    I really hope he stays where he is, but he'd be an impressive replacement for Davis.
    He would, but I don't think he will move into that role as he'd clash with May too much.
    He clashes with nearly everyone.

    I so hope Mrs May promotes Ben Wallace.

    Gove and Wallace around the same cabinet table would be amusing.

    So Mr Wallace, when are you planning to cut off Gove’s penis?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 303
    I agree with DH on the tactics of reshuffles, particularly with a tiny minority, but on the other hand a struggling team needs to play its best players, as well as encourage the youngsters. The elephant in the room is that the deadest of dead wood is the PM herself.

    DD to stay, of necessity, Boris to party chair (backbenches if refused). my namesake Dr Fox to go too, replaced by JRM. That role needs a true believer in Brexit, but a competent one. Hunt to Deputy PM.

    For Health: Wollaston. She has done great work as chair of Health Select committee, and has formed some very interesting links with Norman Lamb and Liz Kendall on working to an agreed tripartite long term plan for the future of the NHS and Social Care. That is the way forward, and has potential to substantially depoliticise the NHS. It would pull the rug from under Labour on the issue, but more importantly would be the right thing for the country.

    Do I think TM capable of this, or it likely to happen? Not really. She is likely to continue as the zombie leader of a zombie cabinet, stumbling its way to an ignominious end, to be later devoured by Jezza.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    edited January 6
    Foxy said:

    I agree with DH on the tactics of reshuffles, particularly with a tiny minority, but on the other hand a struggling team needs to play its best players, as well as encourage the youngsters. The elephant in the room is that the deadest of dead wood is the PM herself.

    DD to stay, of necessity, Boris to party chair (backbenches if refused). my namesake Dr Fox to go too, replaced by JRM. That role needs a true believer in Brexit, but a competent one. Hunt to Deputy PM.

    For Health: Wollaston. She has done great work as chair of Health Select committee, and has formed some very interesting links with Norman Lamb and Liz Kendall on working to an agreed tripartite long term plan for the future of the NHS and Social Care. That is the way forward, and has potential to substantially depoliticise the NHS. It would pull the rug from under Labour on the issue, but more importantly would be the right thing for the country.

    Do I think TM capable of this, or it likely to happen? Not really. She is likely to continue as the zombie leader of a zombie cabinet, stumbling its way to an ignominious end, to be later devoured by Jezza.

    Jezza is not even polling a big enough lead for a working majority let alone devouring a la Blair 1997
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,460
    edited January 6
    Yorkcity said:

    But she needs a replacement for Green.

    All those important cabinet committees aren’t going to chair themselves.

    Will this help May loosing anymore government appointments ? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/warning-age-checks-porn-sites-risks-pushing-children-dark-web/ Age verification for porn sites they are pressing ahead even with concerns.
    Whoever’s advising Mrs Rudd and the Home Office on internet technology needs to be fed to Mr Dancer’s Enormo Haddock. They don’t have a clue how this works, and don’t appear to want to learn.

    You’re not going to regulate away teenage boys from finding all the porn the internet has to offer, you’re much more likely to teach them encryption and evasion methods like Tor, VPNs and proxy servers. If there’s one thing the government really doesn’t want it’s for a whole generations of kids growing up to think of these evasion methods as normal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    But she needs a replacement for Green.

    All those important cabinet committees aren’t going to chair themselves.

    Will this help May loosing anymore government appointments ? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/warning-age-checks-porn-sites-risks-pushing-children-dark-web/ Age verification for porn sites they are pressing ahead even with concerns.
    Whoever’s advising Mrs Rudd and the Home Office on internet technology needs to be fed to Mr Dancer’s Enormo Haddock. They don’t have a clue how this works, and don’t appear to want to learn.

    You’re not going to regulate away teenage boys from finding all the porn the internet has to offer, you’re much more likely to teach them encryption and evasion methods like Tor, VPNs and proxy servers. If there’s one thing the government really doesn’t want it’s for a whole generations of kids growing up to think of these evasion methods as normal.
    Though government agencies are starting to crack the dark web too
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,539
    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    But she needs a replacement for Green.

    All those important cabinet committees aren’t going to chair themselves.

    Will this help May loosing anymore government appointments ? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/warning-age-checks-porn-sites-risks-pushing-children-dark-web/ Age verification for porn sites they are pressing ahead even with concerns.
    Whoever’s advising Mrs Rudd and the Home Office on internet technology needs to be fed to Mr Dancer’s Enormo Haddock. They don’t have a clue how this works, and don’t appear to want to learn.

    You’re not going to regulate away teenage boys from finding all the porn the internet has to offer, you’re much more likely to teach them encryption and evasion methods like Tor, VPNs and proxy servers. If there’s one thing the government really doesn’t want it’s for a whole generations of kids growing up to think of these evasion methods as normal.
    I would agree ,and it is quite likely I would have thought ,many adults would do the same.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,460
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    But she needs a replacement for Green.

    All those important cabinet committees aren’t going to chair themselves.

    Will this help May loosing anymore government appointments ? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/warning-age-checks-porn-sites-risks-pushing-children-dark-web/ Age verification for porn sites they are pressing ahead even with concerns.
    Whoever’s advising Mrs Rudd and the Home Office on internet technology needs to be fed to Mr Dancer’s Enormo Haddock. They don’t have a clue how this works, and don’t appear to want to learn.

    You’re not going to regulate away teenage boys from finding all the porn the internet has to offer, you’re much more likely to teach them encryption and evasion methods like Tor, VPNs and proxy servers. If there’s one thing the government really doesn’t want it’s for a whole generations of kids growing up to think of these evasion methods as normal.
    Though government agencies are starting to crack the dark web too
    At the moment it’s literally just terrorists, paedophiles and drug dealers using it. If every teenage boy starts using it then the government are again reduced to looking for the proverbial needle in the haystack. With a fair few false positives generating crap headlines for the government along the way.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    But she needs a replacement for Green.

    All those important cabinet committees aren’t going to chair themselves.

    Will this help May loosing anymore government appointments ? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/warning-age-checks-porn-sites-risks-pushing-children-dark-web/ Age verification for porn sites they are pressing ahead even with concerns.
    Whoever’s advising Mrs Rudd and the Home Office on internet technology needs to be fed to Mr Dancer’s Enormo Haddock. They don’t have a clue how this works, and don’t appear to want to learn.

    You’re not going to regulate away teenage boys from finding all the porn the internet has to offer, you’re much more likely to teach them encryption and evasion methods like Tor, VPNs and proxy servers. If there’s one thing the government really doesn’t want it’s for a whole generations of kids growing up to think of these evasion methods as normal.
    Though government agencies are starting to crack the dark web too
    At the moment it’s literally just terrorists, paedophiles and drug dealers using it. If every teenage boy starts using it then the government are again reduced to looking for the proverbial needle in the haystack. With a fair few false positives generating crap headlines for the government along the way.
    If it ever got that bad I expect the government would either ban Tor or only allow it to be used with a license
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 303
    It is quite an interesting summary of his back story. I understand why the Tories want to put in their own placemen, but perhaps a bit more critical assessment of outcomes of Free Schools is warranted.

    It seems that Young had a patchy education himself, and is undeniably intelligent, albeit rather lacking in empathy for others and people skills. I am not sure that Oxford is the best place to understand what needs doing in our universities sector, with its college system and international status. The problems in our universities are further down the league tables.

    It would be very useful to have someone like Jess Phillips on the committee to counter point his views, but such a board would be a challenge for the chair.

    Most importantly, if he wants to be taken seriously then he needs to grow up and act seriously. Heaven, and the country, is very forgiving of a sinner that has truly repented.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,460
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    But she needs a replacement for Green.

    All those important cabinet committees aren’t going to chair themselves.

    Will this help May loosing anymore government appointments ? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/warning-age-checks-porn-sites-risks-pushing-children-dark-web/ Age verification for porn sites they are pressing ahead even with concerns.
    Whoever’s advising Mrs Rudd and the Home Office on internet technology needs to be fed to Mr Dancer’s Enormo Haddock. They don’t have a clue how this works, and don’t appear to want to learn.

    You’re not going to regulate away teenage boys from finding all the porn the internet has to offer, you’re much more likely to teach them encryption and evasion methods like Tor, VPNs and proxy servers. If there’s one thing the government really doesn’t want it’s for a whole generations of kids growing up to think of these evasion methods as normal.
    Though government agencies are starting to crack the dark web too
    At the moment it’s literally just terrorists, paedophiles and drug dealers using it. If every teenage boy starts using it then the government are again reduced to looking for the proverbial needle in the haystack. With a fair few false positives generating crap headlines for the government along the way.
    If it ever got that bad I expect the government would either ban Tor or only allow it to be used with a license
    LOL, that’s even less likely to be effective than banning the porn in the first place! Such games of cat and mouse only ever end in one winner, and it isn’t the government. See China for details.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 303
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    I agree with DH on the tactics of reshuffles, particularly with a tiny minority, but on the other hand a struggling team needs to play its best players, as well as encourage the youngsters. The elephant in the room is that the deadest of dead wood is the PM herself.

    DD to stay, of necessity, Boris to party chair (backbenches if refused). my namesake Dr Fox to go too, replaced by JRM. That role needs a true believer in Brexit, but a competent one. Hunt to Deputy PM.

    For Health: Wollaston. She has done great work as chair of Health Select committee, and has formed some very interesting links with Norman Lamb and Liz Kendall on working to an agreed tripartite long term plan for the future of the NHS and Social Care. That is the way forward, and has potential to substantially depoliticise the NHS. It would pull the rug from under Labour on the issue, but more importantly would be the right thing for the country.

    Do I think TM capable of this, or it likely to happen? Not really. She is likely to continue as the zombie leader of a zombie cabinet, stumbling its way to an ignominious end, to be later devoured by Jezza.

    Jezza is not even polling a big enough lead for a working majority let alone devouring a la Blair 1997
    But neither does the Jeggasm show any sign of fading. His meteoric rise last spring shows no sign of popping. The country and Labour Party now accept things as normal that once were inconceivable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    edited January 6
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    But she needs a replacement for Green.

    All those important cabinet committees aren’t going to chair themselves.

    Will this help May loosing anymore government appointments ? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/warning-age-checks-porn-sites-risks-pushing-children-dark-web/ Age verification for porn sites they are pressing ahead even with concerns.
    Whoever’s advising Mrs Rudd and the Home Office on internet technology needs to be fed to Mr Dancer’s Enormo Haddock. They don’t have a clue how this works, and don’t appear to want to learn.

    You’re not going to regulate away teenage boys from finding all the porn the internet has to offer, you’re much more likely to teach them encryption and evasion methods like Tor, VPNs and proxy servers. If there’s one thing the government really doesn’t want it’s for a whole generations of kids growing up to think of these evasion methods as normal.
    Though government agencies are starting to crack the dark web too
    At the moment it’s literally just terrorists, paedophiles and drug dealers using it. If every teenage boy starts using it then the government are again reduced to looking for the proverbial needle in the haystack. With a fair few false positives generating crap headlines for the government along the way.
    If it ever got that bad I expect the government would either ban Tor or only allow it to be used with a license
    LOL, that’s even less likely to be effective than banning the porn in the first place! Such games of cat and mouse only ever end in one winner, and it isn’t the government. See China for details.
    In China access to a whole variety of websites on the internet is blocked and you can end up in prison for using proxy servers
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,460
    That’s a fair article, good journalism from the Guardian - as opposed to a lot of the comment about him this week.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    I agree with DH on the tactics of reshuffles, particularly with a tiny minority, but on the other hand a struggling team needs to play its best players, as well as encourage the youngsters. The elephant in the room is that the deadest of dead wood is the PM herself.

    DD to stay, of necessity, Boris to party chair (backbenches if refused). my namesake Dr Fox to go too, replaced by JRM. That role needs a true believer in Brexit, but a competent one. Hunt to Deputy PM.

    For Health: Wollaston. She has done great work as chair of Health Select committee, and has formed some very interesting links with Norman Lamb and Liz Kendall on working to an agreed tripartite long term plan for the future of the NHS and Social Care. That is the way forward, and has potential to substantially depoliticise the NHS. It would pull the rug from under Labour on the issue, but more importantly would be the right thing for the country.

    Do I think TM capable of this, or it likely to happen? Not really. She is likely to continue as the zombie leader of a zombie cabinet, stumbling its way to an ignominious end, to be later devoured by Jezza.

    Jezza is not even polling a big enough lead for a working majority let alone devouring a la Blair 1997
    But neither does the Jeggasm show any sign of fading. His meteoric rise last spring shows no sign of popping. The country and Labour Party now accept things as normal that once were inconceivable.
    Corbyn's rise is largely from uniting the left behind him, the Tories have equally united the right behind them.

    Hence in June Labour got its biggest general election voteshare since 2001 but the Tories got their biggest general election voteshare since 1983
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,460
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    But she needs a replacement for Green.

    All those important cabinet committees aren’t going to chair themselves.

    Will this help May loosing anymore government appointments ? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/warning-age-checks-porn-sites-risks-pushing-children-dark-web/ Age verification for porn sites they are pressing ahead even with concerns.
    Whoever’s advising Mrs Rudd and the Home Office on internet technology needs to be fed to Mr Dancer’s Enormo Haddock. They don’t have a clue how this works, and don’t appear to want to learn.

    You’re not going to regulate away teenage boys from finding all the porn the internet has to offer, you’re much more likely to teach them encryption and evasion methods like Tor, VPNs and proxy servers. If there’s one thing the government really doesn’t want it’s for a whole generations of kids growing up to think of these evasion methods as normal.
    Though government agencies are starting to crack the dark web too
    At the moment it’s literally just terrorists, paedophiles and drug dealers using it. If every teenage boy starts using it then the government are again reduced to looking for the proverbial needle in the haystack. With a fair few false positives generating crap headlines for the government along the way.
    If it ever got that bad I expect the government would either ban Tor or only allow it to be used with a license
    LOL, that’s even less likely to be effective than banning the porn in the first place! Such games of cat and mouse only ever end in one winner, and it isn’t the government. See China for details.
    In China access to a whole variety of websites on the internet is blocked and you can end up in prison for using proxy servers
    Yet still millions of Chinese do just that. Should we aspire to be as authoritarian as China, just so we can keep teenagers away from smutty videos?
  • Apologies if this has already been posted

  • Rebourne_FluffyRebourne_Fluffy Posts: 182
    edited January 6
    Move BoJo to DPM/First-Minister.

    Move Jeremy Hunt to F&CO.

    But whom to move to the NHS? Gove or Patel?

    As they say....
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,539

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Thanks TSE , I have not seen it, but it was mentioned on the news last night.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,539
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    But she needs a replacement for Green.

    All those important cabinet committees aren’t going to chair themselves.

    Will this help May loosing anymore government appointments ? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/warning-age-checks-porn-sites-risks-pushing-children-dark-web/ Age verification for porn sites they are pressing ahead even with concerns.
    Whoever’s advising Mrs Rudd and the Home Office on internet technology needs to be fed to Mr Dancer’s Enormo Haddock. They don’t have a clue how this works, and don’t appear to want to learn.

    You’re not going to regulate away teenage boys from finding all the porn the internet has to offer, you’re much more likely to teach them encryption and evasion methods like Tor, VPNs and proxy servers. If there’s one thing the government really doesn’t want it’s for a whole generations of kids growing up to think of these evasion methods as normal.
    Though government agencies are starting to crack the dark web too
    At the moment it’s literally just terrorists, paedophiles and drug dealers using it. If every teenage boy starts using it then the government are again reduced to looking for the proverbial needle in the haystack. With a fair few false positives generating crap headlines for the government along the way.
    If it ever got that bad I expect the government would either ban Tor or only allow it to be used with a license
    LOL, that’s even less likely to be effective than banning the porn in the first place! Such games of cat and mouse only ever end in one winner, and it isn’t the government. See China for details.
    In China access to a whole variety of websites on the internet is blocked and you can end up in prison for using proxy servers
    Yet still millions of Chinese do just that. Should we aspire to be as authoritarian as China, just so we can keep teenagers away from smutty videos?
    No we should not .I understand the government has the best intentions However as you said previously they should be very careful of causing more people to come into contact with the dark web.Is the Kodi box issue any easier to solve ? as business such as Sky and BT must be losing a lot of income.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 303
    Yorkcity said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Thanks TSE , I have not seen it, but it was mentioned on the news last night.
    My journalistic near namesake has an interesting perspective too:



    I do hope that the Probation service has sufficient resources to keep tabs on him.
  • Rebourne_FluffyRebourne_Fluffy Posts: 182
    edited January 6
    There is something a bit Albert Speer about K. Starmer. Both were architects that led to the distruction of what they controlled and denied any involvment. Nice to see the usuals happy-clapping this despite the aforementioned complicity.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,228
    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Thanks TSE , I have not seen it, but it was mentioned on the news last night.
    My journalistic near namesake has an interesting perspective too:



    I do hope that the Probation service has sufficient resources to keep tabs on him.
    I believe he has to report to a probation officer once a week, *and* is forbidden to contact his former victims. With conditions as stringent as that, I see no chance of him reoffending.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    edited January 6
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    But she needs a replacement for Green.

    All those important cabinet committees aren’t going to chair themselves.

    Will this help May loosing anymore government appointments ? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/warning-age-checks-porn-sites-risks-pushing-children-dark-web/ Age verification for porn sites they are pressing ahead even with concerns.
    Whoever’s advising Mrs Rudd and the Home Office on internet technology needs to be fed to Mr Dancer’s Enormo Haddock. They don’t have a clue how this works, and don’t appear to want to learn.

    You’re not going to regulate away teenage boys from finding all the porn the internet has to offer, you’re much more likely to teach them encryption and evasion methods like Tor, VPNs and proxy servers. If there’s one thing the government really doesn’t want it’s for a whole generations of kids growing up to think of these evasion methods as normal.
    Though government agencies are starting to crack the dark web too
    At the moment it’s literally just terrorists, paedophiles and drug dealers using it. If every teenage boy starts using it then the government are again reduced to looking for the proverbial needle in the haystack. With a fair few false positives generating crap headlines for the government along the way.
    If it ever got that bad I expect the government would either ban Tor or only allow it to be used with a license
    LOL, that’s even less likely to be effective than banning the porn in the first place! Such games of cat and mouse only ever end in one winner, and it isn’t the government. See China for details.
    In China access to a whole variety of websites on the internet is blocked and you can end up in prison for using proxy servers
    Yet still millions of Chinese do just that. Should we aspire to be as authoritarian as China, just so we can keep teenagers away from smutty videos?
    It is not smutty videos that are the problem, it is illegal videos and if proxy servers continue to be dominated by users who use them for illegal activities I can certainly see Western governments agreeing collectively to require a license to use them. In China those who use proxy servers if arrested can at least say they were using them to access news banned in China even if that will cut little ice with the Chinese authorities
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,346
    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,460
    edited January 6
    Yorkcity said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:
    Though government agencies are starting to crack the dark web too
    At the moment it’s literally just terrorists, paedophiles and drug dealers using it. If every teenage boy starts using it then the government are again reduced to looking for the proverbial needle in the haystack. With a fair few false positives generating crap headlines for the government along the way.
    If it ever got that bad I expect the government would either ban Tor or only allow it to be used with a license
    LOL, that’s even less likely to be effective than banning the porn in the first place! Such games of cat and mouse only ever end in one winner, and it isn’t the government. See China for details.
    In China access to a whole variety of websites on the internet is blocked and you can end up in prison for using proxy servers
    Yet still millions of Chinese do just that. Should we aspire to be as authoritarian as China, just so we can keep teenagers away from smutty videos?
    No we should not .I understand the government has the best intentions However as you said previously they should be very careful of causing more people to come into contact with the dark web.Is the Kodi box issue any easier to solve ? as business such as Sky and BT must be losing a lot of income.
    It’s a fundamental misunderstanding of how the internet works, of trying to control things that are uncontrollable, rather than focus efforts where it can be controlled - such as with social media sites who host objectionable content.

    The TV box problem is basically unsolvable without fundamental changes to the way sports are shown in the UK. Sports events are now televised internationally and often with syndicated English commentary. I can walk into a bar in Dubai or Singapore at 3pm British time on a Saturday and find six live premier league matches on six televisions. Until the British broadcasters can give the public what they want to watch at a reasonable price the piracy wil always be there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,460

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Would that excuse wash at your office, if someone who worked for you f...ed up spectacularly? Starmer was the man in charge, it was his job to be involved.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 849
    Sandpit said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Would that excuse wash at your office, if someone who worked for you f...ed up spectacularly? Starmer was the man in charge, it was his job to be involved.
    I haven't been following this, what was the spectacular fuck-up? Not prosecuting him for more offenses? Or was Starmer connected to the recent decision too?
  • Sandpit said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Would that excuse wash at your office, if someone who worked for you f...ed up spectacularly? Starmer was the man in charge, it was his job to be involved.
    He was DPP, he doesn't get involved in every single charging decision.

    The fault lies partly with the judge and mostly with the Parole Board.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,460

    Sandpit said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Would that excuse wash at your office, if someone who worked for you f...ed up spectacularly? Starmer was the man in charge, it was his job to be involved.
    I haven't been following this, what was the spectacular fuck-up? Not prosecuting him for more offenses? Or was Starmer connected to the recent decision too?
    He wasn’t prosecuted for further offences, his sentence tariff wasn’t appealed as being unduly lenient and the victims were reassured that life meant life.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,346
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Perhaps - but she can still sack Brexiteer ministers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,050
    Mr. Sandpit, agree entirely. The political class are spectacularly ignorant of the basics of technology. Even a luddite like me knows more about it than they do, which is depressing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,460
    edited January 6

    Sandpit said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Would that excuse wash at your office, if someone who worked for you f...ed up spectacularly? Starmer was the man in charge, it was his job to be involved.
    He was DPP, he doesn't get involved in every single charging decision.

    The fault lies partly with the judge and mostly with the Parole Board.
    Agree about the judge and the parole board’s role, but if a case is front page news (which it was) then the DPP should have made it his job to keep a very careful eye on it.

    < cynic > Or maybe he had one eye on a future political career and made a point of being able to retrospectively plausibly deny knowledge of anything controversial that may come back to haunt him in the future < /cynic >
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Perhaps - but she can still sack Brexiteer ministers.
    Though she has to sack Remain ones too for balance
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,239
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Why?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,202
    That seems fair enough

    The broader issue is the lack of willingness to forgive errors & the mob mentality. In this case Young said some stupid things, but a long time ago and he seems to be more serious now.

    If you rule people out if public life for the smallest error, no matter how long ago, you will end up with a very shallow pool of talent to draw on
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Would that excuse wash at your office, if someone who worked for you f...ed up spectacularly? Starmer was the man in charge, it was his job to be involved.
    I haven't been following this, what was the spectacular fuck-up? Not prosecuting him for more offenses? Or was Starmer connected to the recent decision too?
    He wasn’t prosecuted for further offences, his sentence tariff wasn’t appealed as being unduly lenient and the victims were reassured that life meant life.
    Only the Attorney General can ask the Court of Appeal to review a sentence they consider unduly lenient.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,346
    edited January 6
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Perhaps - but she can still sack Brexiteer ministers.
    Though she has to sack Remain ones too for balance
    Why? That's my point. She doesn't have to placate hard-line Brexiteers. They are toothless. They won't succeed in a confidence vote on her leadership. They won't dare support a no confidence vote on the Government. (You've made that point cogently yourself). The only amendments to Brexit legislation they will want to make will be to harden it up and they won't have the support of the Government or the house in that. They are stuffed. They know that. I have a feeling that May knows that too. We'll soon see.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 515

    Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.

    This may be the first documented use of the words “DEFRA” and “properly executed” in the same sentence.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,460

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Would that excuse wash at your office, if someone who worked for you f...ed up spectacularly? Starmer was the man in charge, it was his job to be involved.
    I haven't been following this, what was the spectacular fuck-up? Not prosecuting him for more offenses? Or was Starmer connected to the recent decision too?
    He wasn’t prosecuted for further offences, his sentence tariff wasn’t appealed as being unduly lenient and the victims were reassured that life meant life.
    Only the Attorney General can ask the Court of Appeal to review a sentence they consider unduly lenient.
    Yes. Baroness Scotland also has questions to answer in this case.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    edited January 6
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Perhaps - but she can still sack Brexiteer ministers.
    Though she has to sack Remain ones too for balance
    Why? That's my point. She doesn't have to placate them. They are toothless. They won't succeed in a confidence vote on her leadership. They won't dare support a no confidence vote on the Government. (You've made that point cogently yourself). The only amendments to Brexit legislation they will want to make will be to harden it up and they won't have the support of the Government or the house in that. They are stuffed. They know that. I have a feeling that May knows that too. We'll soon see.
    They aren't stuffed, most of their voters and members are Brexiteers too if May is seen as moving against key Brexiteers by sacking them she would be in trouble from both backbenchers and members
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Why?
    As Tory voters and members strongly support that view and she cannot remain leader if they no longer want her to stay, that would be the signal for a no confidence vote by MPs
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,252

    Move BoJo to DPM/First-Minister.

    Move Jeremy Hunt to F&CO.

    But whom to move to the NHS? Gove or Patel?

    As they say....

    Perm any three from the horse manure bucket
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,346
    edited January 6
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Perhaps - but she can still sack Brexiteer ministers.
    Though she has to sack Remain ones too for balance
    Why? That's my point. She doesn't have to placate them. They are toothless. They won't succeed in a confidence vote on her leadership. They won't dare support a no confidence vote on the Government. (You've made that point cogently yourself). The only amendments to Brexit legislation they will want to make will be to harden it up and they won't have the support of the Government or the house in that. They are stuffed. They know that. I have a feeling that May knows that too. We'll soon see.
    They aren't stuffed, most of their voters and members are Brexiteers too if May is seen as moving against key Brexiteers by sacking them she would be in trouble from both backbenchers and members
    "In trouble". What does that mean? The backbenchers (and members) can't touch May for the reasons I've given.

    EDIT: The only voters who can affect her personally, are the ones in Maidenhead at the next election, and they are mainly Remainers.
  • Sandpit said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Would that excuse wash at your office, if someone who worked for you f...ed up spectacularly? Starmer was the man in charge, it was his job to be involved.
    He was DPP, he doesn't get involved in every single charging decision.

    The fault lies partly with the judge and mostly with the Parole Board.


  • Sandpit said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Would that excuse wash at your office, if someone who worked for you f...ed up spectacularly? Starmer was the man in charge, it was his job to be involved.
    He was DPP, he doesn't get involved in every single charging decision.

    The fault lies partly with the judge and mostly with the Parole Board.


    Morning Mr Godwin.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,690
    edited January 6

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Why?
    Because just about the only support she has now comes from the fact she is saying she will see Brexit through 'properly'. If she loses that constituency as well she has no one left.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Why?
    Because just about the only support she has now comes from the fact she is saying she will see Brexit through 'properly'. If she loses that constituency as well she has no one left.
    Exactly, it would be like Corbyn coming out in support of austerity, political suicide
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,460

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Why?
    Because just about the only support she has now comes from the fact she is saying she will see Brexit through 'properly'. If she loses that constituency as well she has no one left.
    Indeed so. Any backtracking on Brexit will give Graham Brady’s postman a hernia.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Perhaps - but she can still sack Brexiteer ministers.
    Though she has to sack Remain ones too for balance
    Why? That's my point. She doesn't have to placate them. They are toothless. They won't succeed in a confidence vote on her leadership. They won't dare support a no confidence vote on the Government. (You've made that point cogently yourself). The only amendments to Brexit legislation they will want to make will be to harden it up and they won't have the support of the Government or the house in that. They are stuffed. They know that. I have a feeling that May knows that too. We'll soon see.
    They aren't stuffed, most of their voters and members are Brexiteers too if May is seen as moving against key Brexiteers by sacking them she would be in trouble from both backbenchers and members
    "In trouble". What does that mean? The backbenchers (and members) can't touch May for the reasons I've given.

    EDIT: The only voters who can affect her personally, are the ones in Maidenhead at the next election, and they are mainly Remainers.
    Of course they can, it needs just 48 Tory MPs for a no confidence vote in May's leadership and if she had lost the support of Tory members and voters she would lose MPs support too
  • Sandpit said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Would that excuse wash at your office, if someone who worked for you f...ed up spectacularly? Starmer was the man in charge, it was his job to be involved.
    He was DPP, he doesn't get involved in every single charging decision.

    The fault lies partly with the judge and mostly with the Parole Board.


    Morning Mr Godwin.
    Correlation =/= Causation. Your public-school education should have taught you that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 10,654
    edited January 6
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Perhaps - but she can still sack Brexiteer ministers.
    Though she has to sack Remain ones too for balance
    Why? That's my point. She doesn't have to placate them. They are toothless. They won't succeed in a confidence vote on her leadership. They won't dare support a no confidence vote on the Government. (You've made that point cogently yourself). The only amendments to Brexit legislation they will want to make will be to harden it up and they won't have the support of the Government or the house in that. They are stuffed. They know that. I have a feeling that May knows that too. We'll soon see.
    They aren't stuffed, most of their voters and members are Brexiteers too if May is seen as moving against key Brexiteers by sacking them she would be in trouble from both backbenchers and members
    I think you may find that the majority of conservative voters are much less hard Brexiteers and that TM knows that she does not have to live in fear of the smallish number who would revolt against her, she is aiming for the approx 68% of the electorate who seek a sensible deal
  • Does Donald Trump not know Ronald Reagan had Alzheimer's?

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,346
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Why?
    Because just about the only support she has now comes from the fact she is saying she will see Brexit through 'properly'. If she loses that constituency as well she has no one left.
    Exactly, it would be like Corbyn coming out in support of austerity, political suicide
    False analogy. The choice she faces is between ministers who support soft or hard Brexit. There is no suggestion she will abandon Brexit! But she may choose to go with soft Brexit and there's nothing the hard-line Brexiteers can do about that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Perhaps - but she can still sack Brexiteer ministers.
    Though she has to sack Remain ones too for balance
    Why? That's my point. She doesn't have to placate them. They are toothless. They won't succeed in a confidence vote on her leadership. They won't dare support a no confidence vote on the Government. (You've made that point cogently yourself). The only amendments to Brexit legislation they will want to make will be to harden it up and they won't have the support of the Government or the house in that. They are stuffed. They know that. I have a feeling that May knows that too. We'll soon see.
    They aren't stuffed, most of their voters and members are Brexiteers too if May is seen as moving against key Brexiteers by sacking them she would be in trouble from both backbenchers and members
    I think you may find that the majority of conservative voters are much less hard Brexiteers and that TM knows that she does not have to live in fear of the smallish number who would revolt against her, she is aiming for the approx 68% of the electorate who seek a sensible deal
    The majority of Conservative voters in every poll want to leave the single market and end free movement, as I said if she backtracked on that her leadership would be over before you know it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.

    What trouble can they cause on the back benches? They are not going to support a vote of no confidence. They can vote on Brexit legislation but only on hardline amendments that will not have the support of the house. They are stuffed. May should sack Johnson and Grayling without delay and bring in new blood.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Why?
    Because just about the only support she has now comes from the fact she is saying she will see Brexit through 'properly'. If she loses that constituency as well she has no one left.
    Exactly, it would be like Corbyn coming out in support of austerity, political suicide
    False analogy. The choice she faces is between ministers who support soft or hard Brexit. There is no suggestion she will abandon Brexit! But she may choose to go with soft Brexit and there's nothing the hard-line Brexiteers can do about that.
    Yes there is as soft Brexit means free movement continuing and ECJ jurisdiction over the UK continuing permanently. May might be able to avoid full, hard Brexit with a transition and FTA but she would not be able to get away with soft Brexit
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,346
    May successfully faced down the hard-line Brexiteers in the Stage 1 negotiation.

    She also got great support from Merkel et al by presenting herself to them as weak and at the mercy of the headbangers. "It's me or Boris!". They all hugged her.

    She won't be able to play that card in stage 2. She'll be seen as much more secure. It's going to be a rocky road.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,025
    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 61,036
    edited January 6

    Sandpit said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Would that excuse wash at your office, if someone who worked for you f...ed up spectacularly? Starmer was the man in charge, it was his job to be involved.
    He was DPP, he doesn't get involved in every single charging decision.

    The fault lies partly with the judge and mostly with the Parole Board.


    Morning Mr Godwin.
    Correlation =/= Causation. Your public-school education should have taught you that.
    That's a first for you.

    An entire sentence from you free of gobbledygook.

    Keep up the good work, I see all those esol classes have paid off for you.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,346
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Perhaps - but she can still sack Brexiteer ministers.
    Though she has to sack Remain ones too for balance
    Why? That's my point. She doesn't have to placate them. They are toothless. They won't succeed in a confidence vote on her leadership. They won't dare support a no confidence vote on the Government. (You've made that point cogently yourself). The only amendments to Brexit legislation they will want to make will be to harden it up and they won't have the support of the Government or the house in that. They are stuffed. They know that. I have a feeling that May knows that too. We'll soon see.
    They aren't stuffed, most of their voters and members are Brexiteers too if May is seen as moving against key Brexiteers by sacking them she would be in trouble from both backbenchers and members
    I think you may find that the majority of conservative voters are much less hard Brexiteers and that TM knows that she does not have to live in fear of the smallish number who would revolt against her, she is aiming for the approx 68% of the electorate who seek a sensible deal
    The majority of Conservative voters in every poll want to leave the single market and end free movement, as I said if she backtracked on that her leadership would be over before you know it
    The only mechanism to depose her is a vote of no confidence in her by Tory MPs, the majority of whom have no confidence in Boris, Andrea, Moggsie. It doesn't matter what Tory members or voters think. What matters is what Tory MPs think and they are not stupid.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 10,654
    Barnesian said:

    May successfully faced down the hard-line Brexiteers in the Stage 1 negotiation.

    She also got great support from Merkel et al by presenting herself to them as weak and at the mercy of the headbangers. "It's me or Boris!". They all hugged her.

    She won't be able to play that card in stage 2. She'll be seen as much more secure. It's going to be a rocky road.

    The hard Brexiteers just as the hard remainers are in a minority and the deal TM achieves will be much more nuanced with sensible compromises otherwise the project to leave will fall due to the make up of the HOC and HOL
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 10,654
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Perhaps - but she can still sack Brexiteer ministers.
    Though she has to sack Remain ones too for balance
    Why? That's my point. She doesn't have to placate them. They are toothless. They won't succeed in a confidence vote on her leadership. They won't dare support a no confidence vote on the Government. (You've made that point cogently yourself). The only amendments to Brexit legislation they will want to make will be to harden it up and they won't have the support of the Government or the house in that. They are stuffed. They know that. I have a feeling that May knows that too. We'll soon see.
    They aren't stuffed, most of their voters and members are Brexiteers too if May is seen as moving against key Brexiteers by sacking them she would be in trouble from both backbenchers and members
    I think you may find that the majority of conservative voters are much less hard Brexiteers and that TM knows that she does not have to live in fear of the smallish number who would revolt against her, she is aiming for the approx 68% of the electorate who seek a sensible deal
    The majority of Conservative voters in every poll want to leave the single market and end free movement, as I said if she backtracked on that her leadership would be over before you know it
    The only mechanism to depose her is a vote of no confidence in her by Tory MPs, the majority of whom have no confidence in Boris, Andrea, Moggsie. It doesn't matter what Tory members or voters think. What matters is what Tory MPs think and they are not stupid.
    Good post
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He also claims becoming POTUS on his first try makes him a genius

    https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/949619270631256064
  • You are so fecking hillarious that I have farted in the bath and will patent a man-made solution to a jacuzzi. You think you are popular but the silent majority on this site disagree: Trot-on....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,494
    edited January 6
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I’ve been saying for the last week that she is simply not in a strong enough position for a major reshuffle. Even with the DUP her majority is so small that having 5 seriously disgruntled ex- ministers on her back benches would make life intolerable. There are still many more difficult votes to come with Brexit. They need to hang together or fall apart. It’s that simple

    I disagree. She is in a very strong position to face down hardline Brexiteers. They have been very subdued about the Stage 1 negotiation. Everyone knows now that it is May or Corbyn. If 48 Brexiteers trigger a vote of confidence in May, they will lose decisively and strengthen her even more. They have nowhere to go.
    We are still leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement by 2022 and the next general election, if May did backtrack on that though she would be in trouble
    Perhaps - but she can still sack Brexiteer ministers.
    Though she has to sack Remain ones too for balance
    Why? That's my point. She doesn't have to placate them. They are toothless. They won't succeed in a confidence vote on her leadership. They ee.
    They aren't stuffed, most of their voters and members are Brexiteers too if May is seen as moving against key Brexiteers by sacking them she would be in trouble from both backbenchers and members
    I think you may find that the majority of conservative voters are much less hard Brexiteers and that TM knows that she does not have to live in fear of the smallish number who would revolt against her, she is aiming for the approx 68% of the electorate who seek a sensible deal
    The majority of Conservative voters in every poll want to leave the single market and end free movement, as I said if she backtracked on that her leadership would be over before you know it
    The only mechanism to depose her is a vote of no confidence in her by Tory MPs, the majority of whom have no confidence in Boris, Andrea, Moggsie. It doesn't matter what Tory members or voters think. What matters is what Tory MPs think and they are not stupid.
    It does when those Tory members determine whether they are reselected or not and those Tory voters determine whether they win their seats or not. If Boris or Mogg start looking more likely to get a higher Tory voteshare than May if she capitulates on Brexit in terms of free movement and the ECJ she would be toast
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,346

    Barnesian said:

    May successfully faced down the hard-line Brexiteers in the Stage 1 negotiation.

    She also got great support from Merkel et al by presenting herself to them as weak and at the mercy of the headbangers. "It's me or Boris!". They all hugged her.

    She won't be able to play that card in stage 2. She'll be seen as much more secure. It's going to be a rocky road.

    The hard Brexiteers just as the hard remainers are in a minority and the deal TM achieves will be much more nuanced with sensible compromises otherwise the project to leave will fall due to the make up of the HOC and HOL
    I agree. That's why she should call Boris's bluff and fire him. She needs to remove all the extremists from her Cabinet so she can focus on sensible compromises. The hardliners will roar but in practice they are toothless.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,824
    HYUFD said:

    Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.

    Agreed, though I noted his saying at the Real Farming Conference when asked if his reforms would succeed him, he didn't say "That's a hypothetical question", he said "My successor will..." Not sure how much to read into that.

    The BBC interviewers who did me on Wednesday were convinced that a reshuffle will happen this week - stated it as known fact rather than opinion.
    Thought you came across very well in your interview Nick
    Thanks, HYUFD - as always it's frustrating to be interviewed for 20 minutes and have a random 20 seconds broadcast, but I've finally shed the habit of saying Er...um... which plagued me as an MP.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,851
    @JamieRoss7: I hope now Trump has assured us that he's mentally stable in an unhinged and furious Twitter rant we can now just lay it to rest.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,851
    Barnesian said:

    she should call Boris's bluff and fire him. She needs to remove all the extremists from her Cabinet so she can focus on sensible compromises. The hardliners will roar but in practice they are toothless.

    Boris would be quite prepared to crash the Government and usher in Corbyn if it meant he was next in line for the "Brexit betrayed" Tory throne
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,851
    I didn't know you could Tweet entirely in side-eye

This discussion has been closed.