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  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,211
    Foxy said:

    It is quite an interesting summary of his back story. I understand why the Tories want to put in their own placemen, but perhaps a bit more critical assessment of outcomes of Free Schools is warranted.

    It seems that Young had a patchy education himself, and is undeniably intelligent, albeit rather lacking in empathy for others and people skills. I am not sure that Oxford is the best place to understand what needs doing in our universities sector, with its college system and international status. The problems in our universities are further down the league tables.

    It would be very useful to have someone like Jess Phillips on the committee to counter point his views, but such a board would be a challenge for the chair.

    Most importantly, if he wants to be taken seriously then he needs to grow up and act seriously. Heaven, and the country, is very forgiving of a sinner that has truly repented.
    That's right, and I think if TM did appoint someone like Jess (who is by no means a predictable opponent) I can imagine the board giving some interesting opinions - an advisory panel is better off having sharply different views and a mission to find agreement, rather than a gathering of mediocre blandnesses. Unlike Boris (some of whose remarks seem to me worse than Toby's breast obsession), Toby does seem to have a genuine interest in he subject, not just in himself..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    May successfully faced down the hard-line Brexiteers in the Stage 1 negotiation.

    She also got great support from Merkel et al by presenting herself to them as weak and at the mercy of the headbangers. "It's me or Boris!". They all hugged her.

    She won't be able to play that card in stage 2. She'll be seen as much more secure. It's going to be a rocky road.

    The hard Brexiteers just as the hard remainers are in a minority and the deal TM achieves will be much more nuanced with sensible compromises otherwise the project to leave will fall due to the make up of the HOC and HOL
    I agree. That's why she should call Boris's bluff and fire him. She needs to remove all the extremists from her Cabinet so she can focus on sensible compromises. The hardliners will roar but in practice they are toothless.
    If 'sensible compromises' means permanent free movement and ECJ jurisdiction she would be committing hari kiri
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,640
    The counter-argument is that the new blood she needs to bring on need maximum time to learn and build their profile, to minimise the chances of the dead beats currently heading the betting
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630

    HYUFD said:

    Whenever it happens the absolute priority has to be don't move Gove. He is trying to do something of real value at DEFRA and needs time to see his reforms properly executed and embedded.

    Agreed, though I noted his saying at the Real Farming Conference when asked if his reforms would succeed him, he didn't say "That's a hypothetical question", he said "My successor will..." Not sure how much to read into that.

    The BBC interviewers who did me on Wednesday were convinced that a reshuffle will happen this week - stated it as known fact rather than opinion.
    Thought you came across very well in your interview Nick
    Thanks, HYUFD - as always it's frustrating to be interviewed for 20 minutes and have a random 20 seconds broadcast, but I've finally shed the habit of saying Er...um... which plagued me as an MP.
    Yes I thought you came across as concise and to the point
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,716
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,262

    Does Donald Trump not know Ronald Reagan had Alzheimer's?

    Maybe he's forgotten.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,716
    Scott_P said:

    Barnesian said:

    she should call Boris's bluff and fire him. She needs to remove all the extremists from her Cabinet so she can focus on sensible compromises. The hardliners will roar but in practice they are toothless.

    Boris would be quite prepared to crash the Government and usher in Corbyn if it meant he was next in line for the "Brexit betrayed" Tory throne
    I agree. Boris might be prepared to crash the Government because he sees a big personal prize but would many Tory MPs follow him if it meant Corbyn?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,264
    Barnesian said:

    I agree. Boris might be prepared to crash the Government because he sees a big personal prize but would many Tory MPs follow him if it meant Corbyn?

    Corbyn's a Brexiteer. If May won't deliver what they want, he might.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,262

    Sandpit said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted

    Would that excuse wash at your office, if someone who worked for you f...ed up spectacularly? Starmer was the man in charge, it was his job to be involved.
    I haven't been following this, what was the spectacular fuck-up? Not prosecuting him for more offenses? Or was Starmer connected to the recent decision too?
    Otoh it's refreshing to see PB Tories demanding someone should take responsibilty for past actions, even it's largely other people's actions, or lack thereof.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,716
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    May successfully faced down the hard-line Brexiteers in the Stage 1 negotiation.

    She also got great support from Merkel et al by presenting herself to them as weak and at the mercy of the headbangers. "It's me or Boris!". They all hugged her.

    She won't be able to play that card in stage 2. She'll be seen as much more secure. It's going to be a rocky road.

    The hard Brexiteers just as the hard remainers are in a minority and the deal TM achieves will be much more nuanced with sensible compromises otherwise the project to leave will fall due to the make up of the HOC and HOL
    I agree. That's why she should call Boris's bluff and fire him. She needs to remove all the extremists from her Cabinet so she can focus on sensible compromises. The hardliners will roar but in practice they are toothless.
    If 'sensible compromises' means permanent free movement and ECJ jurisdiction she would be committing hari kiri
    Think through the mechanics required for the hari kari. We are repeating ourselves so let's call it quits.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,264

    Otoh it's refreshing to see PB Tories demanding someone should take responsibilty for past actions, even it's largely other people's actions, or lack thereof.

    Afternoon Divot.

    Been hitting the gym, I hope?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    edited January 6
    Scott_P said:

    Barnesian said:

    I agree. Boris might be prepared to crash the Government because he sees a big personal prize but would many Tory MPs follow him if it meant Corbyn?

    Corbyn's a Brexiteer. If May won't deliver what they want, he might.
    Corbyn knows most Labour seats voted Leave as did most Tory marginals he is targeting. He might risk losing support to the LDs and Greens with the majority of Labour voters and members who back permanent single market and customs union membership but they are concentrated in heavily Remain and strongly Labour inner city seats anyway.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,655
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,990

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    What's the betting the US Constitution has to be changed when this is all over?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,655
    edited January 6

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    What's the betting the US Constitution has to be changed when this is all over?
    Very low. What exactly would the change be?

    Edit: repealing the 22nd amendment might be a good idea but it still isn't going to happen.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,716
    edited January 6
    Scott_P said:

    Barnesian said:

    I agree. Boris might be prepared to crash the Government because he sees a big personal prize but would many Tory MPs follow him if it meant Corbyn?

    Corbyn's a Brexiteer. If May won't deliver what they want, he might.
    Are you suggesting hardline Tory MPs might enable Corbyn to become PM in the hope that he will implement a hard Brexit (even though Corbyn's members, voters and MPs do not support that)? That's a bit of a stretch!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,640
    edited January 6
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    May successfully faced down the hard-line Brexiteers in the Stage 1 negotiation.

    She also got great support from Merkel et al by presenting herself to them as weak and at the mercy of the headbangers. "It's me or Boris!". They all hugged her.

    She won't be able to play that card in stage 2. She'll be seen as much more secure. It's going to be a rocky road.

    The hard Brexiteers just as the hard remainers are in a minority and the deal TM achieves will be much more nuanced with sensible compromises otherwise the project to leave will fall due to the make up of the HOC and HOL
    I agree. That's why she should call Boris's bluff and fire him. She needs to remove all the extremists from her Cabinet so she can focus on sensible compromises. The hardliners will roar but in practice they are toothless.
    If 'sensible compromises' means permanent free movement and ECJ jurisdiction she would be committing hari kiri
    Think through the mechanics required for the hari kari. We are repeating ourselves so let's call it quits.
    He is just recounting whatever the pair of aged bores propping up the bar at the local Tory Club think would (aka want to) happen. But May knows they are not the swing voters here.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,990

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    What's the betting the US Constitution has to be changed when this is all over?
    Very low. What exactly would the change be?

    Edit: repealing the 22nd amendment might be a good idea but it still isn't going to happen.
    I was thinking some thing about the chain of command for nuclear first strike to be honest.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,131

    Foxy said:

    It is quite an interesting summary of his back story. I understand why the Tories want to put in their own placemen, but perhaps a bit more critical assessment of outcomes of Free Schools is warranted.

    It seems that Young had a patchy education himself, and is undeniably intelligent, albeit rather lacking in empathy for others and people skills. I am not sure that Oxford is the best place to understand what needs doing in our universities sector, with its college system and international status. The problems in our universities are further down the league tables.

    It would be very useful to have someone like Jess Phillips on the committee to counter point his views, but such a board would be a challenge for the chair.

    Most importantly, if he wants to be taken seriously then he needs to grow up and act seriously. Heaven, and the country, is very forgiving of a sinner that has truly repented.
    That's right, and I think if TM did appoint someone like Jess (who is by no means a predictable opponent) I can imagine the board giving some interesting opinions - an advisory panel is better off having sharply different views and a mission to find agreement, rather than a gathering of mediocre blandnesses. Unlike Boris (some of whose remarks seem to me worse than Toby's breast obsession), Toby does seem to have a genuine interest in he subject, not just in himself..
    It’s the board, not an advisory panel

    And there are plenty of educational professionals

    Toby Young is supposed to be the grit with a different perspective
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,262
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    It is quite an interesting summary of his back story. I understand why the Tories want to put in their own placemen, but perhaps a bit more critical assessment of outcomes of Free Schools is warranted.

    It seems that Young had a patchy education himself, and is undeniably intelligent, albeit rather lacking in empathy for others and people skills. I am not sure that Oxford is the best place to understand what needs doing in our universities sector, with its college system and international status. The problems in our universities are further down the league tables.

    It would be very useful to have someone like Jess Phillips on the committee to counter point his views, but such a board would be a challenge for the chair.

    Most importantly, if he wants to be taken seriously then he needs to grow up and act seriously. Heaven, and the country, is very forgiving of a sinner that has truly repented.
    That's right, and I think if TM did appoint someone like Jess (who is by no means a predictable opponent) I can imagine the board giving some interesting opinions - an advisory panel is better off having sharply different views and a mission to find agreement, rather than a gathering of mediocre blandnesses. Unlike Boris (some of whose remarks seem to me worse than Toby's breast obsession), Toby does seem to have a genuine interest in he subject, not just in himself..
    It’s the board, not an advisory panel

    And there are plenty of educational professionals

    Toby Young is supposed to be the grit with a different perspective
    Good, ole rhyming slang.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,990
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    It is quite an interesting summary of his back story. I understand why the Tories want to put in their own placemen, but perhaps a bit more critical assessment of outcomes of Free Schools is warranted.

    It seems that Young had a patchy education himself, and is undeniably intelligent, albeit rather lacking in empathy for others and people skills. I am not sure that Oxford is the best place to understand what needs doing in our universities sector, with its college system and international status. The problems in our universities are further down the league tables.

    It would be very useful to have someone like Jess Phillips on the committee to counter point his views, but such a board would be a challenge for the chair.

    Most importantly, if he wants to be taken seriously then he needs to grow up and act seriously. Heaven, and the country, is very forgiving of a sinner that has truly repented.
    That's right, and I think if TM did appoint someone like Jess (who is by no means a predictable opponent) I can imagine the board giving some interesting opinions - an advisory panel is better off having sharply different views and a mission to find agreement, rather than a gathering of mediocre blandnesses. Unlike Boris (some of whose remarks seem to me worse than Toby's breast obsession), Toby does seem to have a genuine interest in he subject, not just in himself..
    It’s the board, not an advisory panel

    And there are plenty of educational professionals

    Toby Young is supposed to be the grit with a different perspective
    As I noted yesterday, he has experience of setting up 'private' educational institutions e.g. Free Schools. This is one of the political goals of the new Office - more private HE institutions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,343
    Scott_P said:

    I believe the word is Frit...

    ttps://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/949627027363123200

    So the PM is “frit” for *doing* an interview with Andrew Marr?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,409

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    What's the betting the US Constitution has to be changed when this is all over?
    They can scratch the 28th amendment into a piece radioactive rubble from the Capitol Building.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,856
    edited January 6

    Does Donald Trump not know Ronald Reagan had Alzheimer's?

    I want you to know that also I will not make age mental health an issue of this campaign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    May successfully faced down the hard-line Brexiteers in the Stage 1 negotiation.

    She also got great support from Merkel et al by presenting herself to them as weak and at the mercy of the headbangers. "It's me or Boris!". They all hugged her.

    She won't be able to play that card in stage 2. She'll be seen as much more secure. It's going to be a rocky road.

    The hard Brexiteers just as the hard remainers are in a minority and the deal TM achieves will be much more nuanced with sensible compromises otherwise the project to leave will fall due to the make up of the HOC and HOL
    I agree. That's why she should call Boris's bluff and fire him. She needs to remove all the extremists from her Cabinet so she can focus on sensible compromises. The hardliners will roar but in practice they are toothless.
    If 'sensible compromises' means permanent free movement and ECJ jurisdiction she would be committing hari kiri
    Think through the mechanics required for the hari kari. We are repeating ourselves so let's call it quits.
    He is just recounting whatever the pair of aged bores propping up the bar at the local Tory Club think would (aka want to) happen. But May knows they are not the swing voters here.
    More voters at the last general election moved from UKIP to Tory than went from Tory to Labour or LD
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,994
    edited January 6
    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:

    Barnesian said:

    she should call Boris's bluff and fire him. She needs to remove all the extremists from her Cabinet so she can focus on sensible compromises. The hardliners will roar but in practice they are toothless.

    Boris would be quite prepared to crash the Government and usher in Corbyn if it meant he was next in line for the "Brexit betrayed" Tory throne
    I agree. Boris might be prepared to crash the Government because he sees a big personal prize but would many Tory MPs follow him if it meant Corbyn?
    Yes as Boris would beat a Corbyn led Labour party.When it becomes such a binary choice one has to make a decision , many centrists and Lib Dems would with reluctance give Boris the nod.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,409
    Yorkcity said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:

    Barnesian said:

    she should call Boris's bluff and fire him. She needs to remove all the extremists from her Cabinet so she can focus on sensible compromises. The hardliners will roar but in practice they are toothless.

    Boris would be quite prepared to crash the Government and usher in Corbyn if it meant he was next in line for the "Brexit betrayed" Tory throne
    I agree. Boris might be prepared to crash the Government because he sees a big personal prize but would many Tory MPs follow him if it meant Corbyn?
    Yes as Boris would beat a Corbyn led Labour party.When it becomes such a binary choice one has to make a decision , many centrists and Lib Dems would with reluctance give Boris the nod.
    #libdems4boris

    Fucking stroll on.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,856
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,655

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    What's the betting the US Constitution has to be changed when this is all over?
    Very low. What exactly would the change be?

    Edit: repealing the 22nd amendment might be a good idea but it still isn't going to happen.
    I was thinking some thing about the chain of command for nuclear first strike to be honest.
    Very difficult. The president is commander-in-chief. Unless you mess with that then it creates all sorts of complications. Also, placing restrictions on something that could be as time-critical as to be measured in minutes might mean that an overly complex system of checks-and-balances results in being unable to prevent an attack through a pre-emptive strike. Obviously, there are risks both ways but that's where the 25th amendment comes in, if a president really is mentally unfit.

    Besides, you could regulate nuclear use through regular legislation rather than a constitutional amendment, if you really wanted to, and frankly, if it came down to it, constitutional niceties might be left to one side if it really was a life-or-death choice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    edited January 6
    Dura_Ace said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:

    Barnesian said:

    she should call Boris's bluff and fire him. She needs to remove all the extremists from her Cabinet so she can focus on sensible compromises. The hardliners will roar but in practice they are toothless.

    Boris would be quite prepared to crash the Government and usher in Corbyn if it meant he was next in line for the "Brexit betrayed" Tory throne
    I agree. Boris might be prepared to crash the Government because he sees a big personal prize but would many Tory MPs follow him if it meant Corbyn?
    Yes as Boris would beat a Corbyn led Labour party.When it becomes such a binary choice one has to make a decision , many centrists and Lib Dems would with reluctance give Boris the nod.
    #libdems4boris

    Fucking stroll on.
    Given the LDs are already down to just 7% anyway and most of those are staunch Remainers it is unlikely many would switch to a Boris-led Tory party but Boris would be more likely to hold June 2017 Tory voters and appeal to voters in marginal Labour Leave seats
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,778
    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    The AfD's aim is to become the official German opposition, not to form a Coalition with Merkel and the higher the AfD polls the more difficult it gets for Merkel to form that governing Coalition
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,264
    Changing my user name to Very Stable Genius...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    Not useless at all, they have shifted German politics to the right and it looks like Merkel is in big trouble. Without AfD it would have been a simple Union/FDP coalition with Merkel as Chancellor. AfD have completely shaken up German politics and made Germany ungovernable for all but a shaky looking grand coalition that will be pushing even more unpopular policies with the CSU/CDU right wingers, further strengthening AfD.

    It's literally the same effect as UKIP had on UK politics. Possibly wasted votes, but without UKIP there would never have been a referendum in the first place.

    Call AfD what you want, but useless they are not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    edited January 6
    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:

    Barnesian said:

    I agree. Boris might be prepared to crash the Government because he sees a big personal prize but would many Tory MPs follow him if it meant Corbyn?

    Corbyn's a Brexiteer. If May won't deliver what they want, he might.
    Are you suggesting hardline Tory MPs might enable Corbyn to become PM in the hope that he will implement a hard Brexit (even though Corbyn's members, voters and MPs do not support that)? That's a bit of a stretch!
    A stretch, but I actually can buy several of the more extreme ones risking just that - on the grounds even if Corbyn's voters don't want that, it would result nevertheless from him being in office/

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    One's choice not coming top, and not having a realistic chance at government, is a pathetic wasted vote? A bit harsh, particularly in a more proportional system than ours, I would have have thought.

    On Germany, I only follow updates on it intermittently, and the impression I get is that they despite comments to the contrary they don't want to go the polls again, and parties won't be rewarded for refusing to go into coalition, so there's just a lot of faffing about before they given in and do what they need to. Is that at all accurate, Germany experts?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    edited January 6
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    Not useless at all, they have shifted German politics to the right and it looks like Merkel is in big trouble. Without AfD it would have been a simple Union/FDP coalition with Merkel as Chancellor. AfD have completely shaken up German politics and made Germany ungovernable for all but a shaky looking grand coalition that will be pushing even more unpopular policies with the CSU/CDU right wingers, further strengthening AfD.

    It's literally the same effect as UKIP had on UK politics. Possibly wasted votes, but without UKIP there would never have been a referendum in the first place.

    Call AfD what you want, but useless they are not.
    Certainly there are unlikely to be new refugee quotas pushed by Germany anytime soon
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,343
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    Not useless at all, they have shifted German politics to the right and it looks like Merkel is in big trouble. Without AfD it would have been a simple Union/FDP coalition with Merkel as Chancellor. AfD have completely shaken up German politics and made Germany ungovernable for all but a shaky looking grand coalition that will be pushing even more unpopular policies with the CSU/CDU right wingers, further strengthening AfD.

    It's literally the same effect as UKIP had on UK politics. Possibly wasted votes, but without UKIP there would never have been a referendum in the first place.

    Call AfD what you want, but useless they are not.
    And the more they edge up in the polls, the more unlikely a second election becomes. It looks like it’s heading for a grand coalition or nothing, possibly with Mrs Merkel’s head being the price for everyone getting it together. AfD then become the Opposition, interesting times ahead.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    IanB2 said:

    The counter-argument is that the new blood she needs to bring on need maximum time to learn and build their profile, to minimise the chances of the dead beats currently heading the betting

    I think its a risk worth taking, frankly. Leave things as they are, and I think they have an even higher chance of losing than if they do nothing. Maybe it should have been done earlier but she was too weak, but this is not a normal situation for PMs, and even if some cannot be shifted, others can.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,655
    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    Also, 'Grand' coalition = 50%; Jamaica coalition = 51%. New elections could well make matters worse.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,655
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    Not useless at all, they have shifted German politics to the right and it looks like Merkel is in big trouble. Without AfD it would have been a simple Union/FDP coalition with Merkel as Chancellor. AfD have completely shaken up German politics and made Germany ungovernable for all but a shaky looking grand coalition that will be pushing even more unpopular policies with the CSU/CDU right wingers, further strengthening AfD.

    It's literally the same effect as UKIP had on UK politics. Possibly wasted votes, but without UKIP there would never have been a referendum in the first place.

    Call AfD what you want, but useless they are not.
    Mentioning UKIP, one other indirect factor that AfD have had is that, by paralysing and distracting German politics, the power in the Brexit talks on the EU side lies much more with the Commission or with other member states who want to strongly push a line, like Ireland.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,343
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    The counter-argument is that the new blood she needs to bring on need maximum time to learn and build their profile, to minimise the chances of the dead beats currently heading the betting

    I think its a risk worth taking, frankly. Leave things as they are, and I think they have an even higher chance of losing than if they do nothing. Maybe it should have been done earlier but she was too weak, but this is not a normal situation for PMs, and even if some cannot be shifted, others can.
    Half of me says she should roll the dice, bring in fresh talent to the Cabinet table at a time where not a lot is happening in terms of legislation apart from Brexit, which gives new ministers time to master their briefs and come up with innovative ideas.

    The other half of me says she’s scared of a handful more George Osbornes hanging around, bitter and resentful at losing their jobs and willing to try anything and everything to undermine her position and authority.

    Not an easy job being PM. Until the last four months David Cameron made it look very easy indeed.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,056
    One for @SeanT

    https://tinyurl.com/y9k3lx5d

    A once in a lifetime opportunity to be part of the momentous Tornado's 10th anniversary tour of Great Britain. The A1 Peppercorn Class steam locomotive No.60163 will haul the sumptuous carriages of Belmond Royal Scotsman. Ten intricately designed carriages form the perfect country house-on-wheels from which to savour this extra-special tour with so many special touches, and even a few surprises, planned! Limited to a maximum of just 38 places. Register today.

    The Tornado's 10th anniversary tour of Great Britain is a journey that showcases the very best that Britain has to offer from stunning vistas and its rich railway heritage past to the highest quality local cuisine and unsurpassed attention to detail guests enjoy travelling on the prestigious Belmond Royal Scotsman carriages.


    Prices start from £29,995 per person!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,742

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    Not useless at all, they have shifted German politics to the right and it looks like Merkel is in big trouble. Without AfD it would have been a simple Union/FDP coalition with Merkel as Chancellor. AfD have completely shaken up German politics and made Germany ungovernable for all but a shaky looking grand coalition that will be pushing even more unpopular policies with the CSU/CDU right wingers, further strengthening AfD.

    It's literally the same effect as UKIP had on UK politics. Possibly wasted votes, but without UKIP there would never have been a referendum in the first place.

    Call AfD what you want, but useless they are not.
    Mentioning UKIP, one other indirect factor that AfD have had is that, by paralysing and distracting German politics, the power in the Brexit talks on the EU side lies much more with the Commission or with other member states who want to strongly push a line, like Ireland.
    Not having a government may make it a bit tricky getting Brexit deal approval.

    Glad I didn't go to Fleetwood. What a dreadful match!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,211
    kle4 said:



    On Germany, I only follow updates on it intermittently, and the impression I get is that they despite comments to the contrary they don't want to go the polls again, and parties won't be rewarded for refusing to go into coalition, so there's just a lot of faffing about before they given in and do what they need to. Is that at all accurate, Germany experts?

    Pretty much IMO. A bit like EU negotiations, there's a belief that they need to be seen to be fighting to the last to get the best deal.

    I'm not a fan of the AfD and think there's a tendency to overrate their impact, but the Civey poll is certainly striking. The other polls are showing an uptick in their support too, though not as much.

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,343
    tlg86 said:

    One for @SeanT

    https://tinyurl.com/y9k3lx5d

    A once in a lifetime opportunity to be part of the momentous Tornado's 10th anniversary tour of Great Britain. The A1 Peppercorn Class steam locomotive No.60163 will haul the sumptuous carriages of Belmond Royal Scotsman. Ten intricately designed carriages form the perfect country house-on-wheels from which to savour this extra-special tour with so many special touches, and even a few surprises, planned! Limited to a maximum of just 38 places. Register today.

    The Tornado's 10th anniversary tour of Great Britain is a journey that showcases the very best that Britain has to offer from stunning vistas and its rich railway heritage past to the highest quality local cuisine and unsurpassed attention to detail guests enjoy travelling on the prestigious Belmond Royal Scotsman carriages.


    Prices start from £29,995 per person!

    @SeanT could probably persuade an editor somewhere to pay for him and his missus to take the trip of a lifetime in exchange for a few thousand words about it afterwards!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,459
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    Not useless at all, they have shifted German politics to the right and it looks like Merkel is in big trouble. Without AfD it would have been a simple Union/FDP coalition with Merkel as Chancellor. AfD have completely shaken up German politics and made Germany ungovernable for all but a shaky looking grand coalition that will be pushing even more unpopular policies with the CSU/CDU right wingers, further strengthening AfD.

    It's literally the same effect as UKIP had on UK politics. Possibly wasted votes, but without UKIP there would never have been a referendum in the first place.

    Call AfD what you want, but useless they are not.
    Mentioning UKIP, one other indirect factor that AfD have had is that, by paralysing and distracting German politics, the power in the Brexit talks on the EU side lies much more with the Commission or with other member states who want to strongly push a line, like Ireland.
    Not having a government may make it a bit tricky getting Brexit deal approval.

    Glad I didn't go to Fleetwood. What a dreadful match!
    Im wishing I did go to Exeter - Rondon has put the baggies 0-1 up already!
  • Leicester City did well to hold Fleetwood today. Much stronger outcome than anything Leicestershire NHS Trust could ever manage. <no-sarc/>
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,056
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    One for @SeanT

    https://tinyurl.com/y9k3lx5d

    A once in a lifetime opportunity to be part of the momentous Tornado's 10th anniversary tour of Great Britain. The A1 Peppercorn Class steam locomotive No.60163 will haul the sumptuous carriages of Belmond Royal Scotsman. Ten intricately designed carriages form the perfect country house-on-wheels from which to savour this extra-special tour with so many special touches, and even a few surprises, planned! Limited to a maximum of just 38 places. Register today.

    The Tornado's 10th anniversary tour of Great Britain is a journey that showcases the very best that Britain has to offer from stunning vistas and its rich railway heritage past to the highest quality local cuisine and unsurpassed attention to detail guests enjoy travelling on the prestigious Belmond Royal Scotsman carriages.


    Prices start from £29,995 per person!

    @SeanT could probably persuade an editor somewhere to pay for him and his missus to take the trip of a lifetime in exchange for a few thousand words about it afterwards!
    There's an annual tour like this every year, but at a much more reasonable price. They're blatantly appealing to the "I'll do it because I can afford it" crowd.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,131

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    As influential as UKIP at its peak?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,778
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    The AfD's aim is to become the official German opposition, not to form a Coalition with Merkel and the higher the AfD polls the more difficult it gets for Merkel to form that governing Coalition
    Do Germany have an Official Opposition like we do? Didn't think that they did. Who formed the Official Opposition during the Grand Coalition years and what made them official?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870
    So I invested a decent amount of money in Dogecoin on the basis that there is demand for it as an intermediary currency for trading. It's massively up, not sure whether to cash out or hold.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,778
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    As influential as UKIP at its peak?
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    As influential as UKIP at its peak?
    Indeed. And I've always maintained that UKIP at their peak was about as influential and useful as a chocolate fireguard. It was never UKIP and their 3% share in the polls that made Cameron pledge a referendum, it was over 70 of his own MPs rebelling and demanding one that did
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,655
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    Not useless at all, they have shifted German politics to the right and it looks like Merkel is in big trouble. Without AfD it would have been a simple Union/FDP coalition with Merkel as Chancellor. AfD have completely shaken up German politics and made Germany ungovernable for all but a shaky looking grand coalition that will be pushing even more unpopular policies with the CSU/CDU right wingers, further strengthening AfD.

    It's literally the same effect as UKIP had on UK politics. Possibly wasted votes, but without UKIP there would never have been a referendum in the first place.

    Call AfD what you want, but useless they are not.
    Mentioning UKIP, one other indirect factor that AfD have had is that, by paralysing and distracting German politics, the power in the Brexit talks on the EU side lies much more with the Commission or with other member states who want to strongly push a line, like Ireland.
    Not having a government may make it a bit tricky getting Brexit deal approval.

    Glad I didn't go to Fleetwood. What a dreadful match!
    They have a government: it's just not capable of doing much. That almost certainly means it will play relatively little role in the Brexit process and will go along with what's agreed.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    As influential as UKIP at its peak?
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    As influential as UKIP at its peak?
    Indeed. And I've always maintained that UKIP at their peak was about as influential and useful as a chocolate fireguard. It was never UKIP and their 3% share in the polls that made Cameron pledge a referendum, it was over 70 of his own MPs rebelling and demanding one that did
    It was UKIP pressure that forced Dave's hand. They weren't at 3% back then, they were sitting on 10-12% and eating into the Tory vote share. Additionally, multiple MPs were considering defecting without the referendum pledge, it was UKIP that caused it all, like them or not, UKIP are probably the most successful political party of recent times, and Nige is pretty much the most successful British politician since Blair won in 1997.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    The AfD's aim is to become the official German opposition, not to form a Coalition with Merkel and the higher the AfD polls the more difficult it gets for Merkel to form that governing Coalition
    Do Germany have an Official Opposition like we do? Didn't think that they did. Who formed the Official Opposition during the Grand Coalition years and what made them official?
    Yes they do, it comes with a fairly prominent position within the Bundestag. If was one of the major reasons that the SPD didn't want to go into coalition again as it would leave AfD as the next largest party not in the governing coalition.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,725
    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    As influential as UKIP at its peak?
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    As influential as UKIP at its peak?
    Indeed. And I've always maintained that UKIP at their peak was about as influential and useful as a chocolate fireguard. It was never UKIP and their 3% share in the polls that made Cameron pledge a referendum, it was over 70 of his own MPs rebelling and demanding one that did
    It was UKIP pressure that forced Dave's hand. They weren't at 3% back then, they were sitting on 10-12% and eating into the Tory vote share. Additionally, multiple MPs were considering defecting without the referendum pledge, it was UKIP that caused it all, like them or not, UKIP are probably the most successful political party of recent times, and Nige is pretty much the most successful British politician since Blair won in 1997.
    Very much regret it, but there’s a lot in what you say. Farage of course failed numerous times to win a Parliamentary seat, so that reduces him somewhat, but he used his MEP seat to reasonably good effect.
    Whether or not he’ll turn out to have caused a lot of damage to his country in the ;loing run remains to be seen.

  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 900
    MaxPB said:

    So I invested a decent amount of money in Dogecoin on the basis that there is demand for it as an intermediary currency for trading. It's massively up, not sure whether to cash out or hold.

    Check out Raiblocks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,809
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Max, not my area, but I'd be tempted to cash out your original stake, so your evens, then let the rest sit there.

    Unless you stand to make mega money. Then I'd cash out and sling it into more straightforward investments. But that's just me.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,716
    edited January 6
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    The counter-argument is that the new blood she needs to bring on need maximum time to learn and build their profile, to minimise the chances of the dead beats currently heading the betting

    I think its a risk worth taking, frankly. Leave things as they are, and I think they have an even higher chance of losing than if they do nothing. Maybe it should have been done earlier but she was too weak, but this is not a normal situation for PMs, and even if some cannot be shifted, others can.
    Half of me says she should roll the dice, bring in fresh talent to the Cabinet table at a time where not a lot is happening in terms of legislation apart from Brexit, which gives new ministers time to master their briefs and come up with innovative ideas.

    The other half of me says she’s scared of a handful more George Osbornes hanging around, bitter and resentful at losing their jobs and willing to try anything and everything to undermine her position and authority.

    Not an easy job being PM. Until the last four months David Cameron made it look very easy indeed.
    Here is what I would do:

    Fold International Trade and International Development into the Foreign Office where they belong. Fox and Mordaunt leave the Cabinet and report to the new Foreign Secretary Amber Rudd. Boris is fired and is allowed to leave Downing St by the back door.

    Promote Javid to Home Secretary. Fire Grayling.

    Promote two newbies to Transport and Local Government.

    Net result: a smaller and more cohesive Cabinet that is more capable of making the necessary compromises for a successful Brexit. Amber Rudd set up as May's successor.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,419

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    I don't get all the stuff saying Trump is a child.

    He's clearly a teenager.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,778

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    I don't get all the stuff saying Trump is a child.

    He's clearly a teenager.
    Though considering he's forgotten about his Presidential campaign in 2000 maybe comparisons with Reagan are sadly apt in one regards.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,812

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    I don't get all the stuff saying Trump is a child.

    He's clearly a teenager.
    Though considering he's forgotten about his Presidential campaign in 2000 maybe comparisons with Reagan are sadly apt in one regards.
    He only campaigned in the primaries in 2000.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,419
    Man City now so far ahead, they have to give their opponents a one goal start and the first half.......
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,716

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    I don't get all the stuff saying Trump is a child.

    He's clearly a teenager.
    I just don't get the betting on Trump.

    Betfair indicates he has only a 55% chance of finishing this term. Yet it has him with a 50% chance of being the Republican nominee. For that to happen, not only does he have to finish his term but hehas to choose to stand for another term and then get selected. That's a fine margin between 50% and 55%. I would put his chance of being the Republican nominee nearer 40%.

    Betfair also indicates the chance of him being the next president at 30%. That implies (Bayes) that IF he is the Republican nominee then he has a 60% chance of becoming president (30%/50%). I would put it at 50/50 all things being equal.

    The betting isn't consistent. I think the value is in laying him as next President. I think he has only a 20% chance.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,189
    MaxPB said:

    So I invested a decent amount of money in Dogecoin on the basis that there is demand for it as an intermediary currency for trading. It's massively up, not sure whether to cash out or hold.

    Dogecoin is going to the moon.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,137

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    I don't get all the stuff saying Trump is a child.

    He's clearly a teenager.
    There are many teenagers with far greater emotional maturity.
    And his vocabulary is far less sophisticated than that of most teenagers.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870
    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    So I invested a decent amount of money in Dogecoin on the basis that there is demand for it as an intermediary currency for trading. It's massively up, not sure whether to cash out or hold.

    Dogecoin is going to the moon.
    Yeah, it started out as a joke but it's liquidity and low transaction fees make it very attractive as a go between. I'm going to hold on for now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,262

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    I don't get all the stuff saying Trump is a child.

    He's clearly a teenager.
    After long & tedious discussions on PB of the advisability of giving 16 & 17 year olds the vote, I was under the impression that more than half of 'teenagers' were children.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,746
    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    I don't get all the stuff saying Trump is a child.

    He's clearly a teenager.
    There are many teenagers with far greater emotional maturity.
    And his vocabulary is far less sophisticated than that of most teenagers.

    +1.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,211
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The AFD just 4% behind the SPD in new German poll

    But still with less than half the votes of CDU/CSU and without any possible allies. So still a pathetic wasted vote irrelevance.
    The AfD's aim is to become the official German opposition, not to form a Coalition with Merkel and the higher the AfD polls the more difficult it gets for Merkel to form that governing Coalition
    Do Germany have an Official Opposition like we do? Didn't think that they did. Who formed the Official Opposition during the Grand Coalition years and what made them official?
    Yes they do, it comes with a fairly prominent position within the Bundestag. If was one of the major reasons that the SPD didn't want to go into coalition again as it would leave AfD as the next largest party not in the governing coalition.
    Yes, during the grand coalition up to now, the Left Party was the official opposition. Not sure what benefits that brings - first to respond to debates, probably - anything else?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,211
    Barnesian said:

    <

    I just don't get the betting on Trump.

    Betfair indicates he has only a 55% chance of finishing this term. Yet it has him with a 50% chance of being the Republican nominee. For that to happen, not only does he have to finish his term but hehas to choose to stand for another term and then get selected. That's a fine margin between 50% and 55%. I would put his chance of being the Republican nominee nearer 40%.

    Betfair also indicates the chance of him being the next president at 30%. That implies (Bayes) that IF he is the Republican nominee then he has a 60% chance of becoming president (30%/50%). I would put it at 50/50 all things being equal.

    The betting isn't consistent. I think the value is in laying him as next President. I think he has only a 20% chance.

    All interesting analysis, thanks.

    It may be just a short-term movement, but Trump's rating has risen in recent weeks, and the Democrat lead has fallen:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Not sure what that's about = general upbeat Christmas effect?
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 137
    There are those Cryptocoins which are a currency in their own right such as Bitcoin...and there are those that are needed to work in certain networks (such as Etehereum) or with certain applications (such as Factom). So their value is dependent on the success of their applications- so expect Ethereum to rise as Ethertanks sucks in the punters. Meanwhile Bitcoin will jump all over the place driven by supply and demand,
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,655

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    I don't get all the stuff saying Trump is a child.

    He's clearly a teenager.
    After long & tedious discussions on PB of the advisability of giving 16 & 17 year olds the vote, I was under the impression that more than half of 'teenagers' were children.
    But fewer than half of children are teenagers!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,655
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It is in a sense infuriating that his methods and style have worked very well for him up to now, even as his communication style makes him seem both buffoonish and an arsehole.
    He seems to be losing it. I wouldn't like to be in his presence right now. I assume at least one member of his staff has a tranquilliser gun at the ready.
    Not to worry. He's a self-declared genius:

    I don't get all the stuff saying Trump is a child.

    He's clearly a teenager.
    I just don't get the betting on Trump.

    Betfair indicates he has only a 55% chance of finishing this term. Yet it has him with a 50% chance of being the Republican nominee. For that to happen, not only does he have to finish his term but hehas to choose to stand for another term and then get selected. That's a fine margin between 50% and 55%. I would put his chance of being the Republican nominee nearer 40%.

    Betfair also indicates the chance of him being the next president at 30%. That implies (Bayes) that IF he is the Republican nominee then he has a 60% chance of becoming president (30%/50%). I would put it at 50/50 all things being equal.

    The betting isn't consistent. I think the value is in laying him as next President. I think he has only a 20% chance.
    The chance of Trump finishing his term is being severely under-rated. It should be at least 80% (which of itself is a very low chance historically). It's very difficult to remove a president who doesn't want to go. Not only are institutional and procedural barriers high but partisan interests will protect all but the most corrupt or unbalanced. Death is always a possibility but it's an ever-reducing one: Trump is already nearly a quarter of the way through his term.
This discussion has been closed.