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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Toby Young quits so helping TMay by taking the attention away

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,424
    Now the Ashes are over, the Aussie weather is still sledging us....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-42615708
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    I can't help feeling that Justine Greening thought she would be left in post if she simply said no, as so many others had. May obviously felt that she could not back down again without looking (even more) ridiculous.

    I s

    According to the papers Mrs May has not liked then tone of Justine Greening, nor the fact that Greening was proven right about grammar schools and made Nick Timothy look like an idiot.

    From this morning's Red Box email.

    It had been briefed that Justine Greening's hold on the role of education secretary was in doubt, but after other ministers had refused to budge, she did the same. Unlike the others, Theresa May deployed her renowned skills of compromise, flexibility and guile, and sacked her.

    SNIP

    Friends insist she had done a "bloody good job" in education and did not want to be just shunted around Whitehall. They also suspect the hand of Nick Timothy, SNIP
    On the other hand, one can only have limited sympathy for someone who flounces when offered a reasonable Cabinet job. She wasn't being demoted.
    Nobody has the *right" to be in any particular Cabinet position.
    I didn't say she did. She did the decent and sensible thing and told the hapless and ineffectual May where to stick her crappy offer.
    The DWP job is an important one, and of equivalent status to Education Secretary. And yes, it's difficult and challenging. But, if you turn down difficult and challenging work, of equivalent status to your current position, that reflects more on you than on the person making the offer.
    Not so. The sensible professional chooses role where he or she has a good chance of succeeding. The DWP gig is not one of those roles.
    Has she been especially successful at education?
    I think our own ydoether referred to her as the best Education Secretary for a decade or so, and his opinion is at the very least worth considering. As for 'successful', a year isn't much time to effect dramatic change, which is rather the point.
    Ydoethur was being somewhat ironic. He rated her because she didn't actually do anything.
    In fairness that was probably the sensible thing to do after a period of change and disruption. And she dragged her heels over grammar schools which was the right thing to do.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,248
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has made more progress on her talks with the EU than her predecessor did

    Wow. Where did that story originate? It was also over the media and even Nigel gave his endorsement.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,072
    Scott_P said:

    @theousherwood: Just watching Dominic Grieve walk into Downing Street. A job would be one way to ensure no more nasty rebellions on Brexit legislation.

    @bbclaurak: Interesting ... what would he go back to having been in Cabinet before ? Raab’s job at Justice is vacant twitter.com/theousherwood/…

    Maybe he is going to provide the legal advice that Davis wants on whether we can take legal action against the EU for having the audacity to actually prepare for a No Deal Brexit.

  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 870

    tpfkar said:

    And reflecting on Justine Greening's demise, a terrible look for the PM, but is it just that they didn't get on? May must have figured that getting her out of the room is worth another Brexit rebel.

    You can't have a reshuffle without someone getting booted out.
    Goes without saying. But to brief out that you are going for a female, young, diverse team and then lose Justine Greening seems more than a little careless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,634
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has made more progress on her talks with the EU than her predecessor did

    Given she has got through Phase 1 of the talks there is less need of one
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,424

    Scott_P said:

    @theousherwood: Just watching Dominic Grieve walk into Downing Street. A job would be one way to ensure no more nasty rebellions on Brexit legislation.

    @bbclaurak: Interesting ... what would he go back to having been in Cabinet before ? Raab’s job at Justice is vacant twitter.com/theousherwood/…

    Attorney General? I can't remember if Jeremy Wright has been reappointed or not?
    That's his old job... would he take it...
    Grieve would be an ideal CON leader
    He's my kind of Tory, plus it would be great to have someone who read History as PM.
    If a knowledge of history is required to be PM - you just went to the back of the queue.....
    I wave my A in A Level History certificate in your face.

    This was when A Levels were hard.
    Evidence suggests otherwise.
  • tpfkar said:

    And reflecting on Justine Greening's demise, a terrible look for the PM, but is it just that they didn't get on? May must have figured that getting her out of the room is worth another Brexit rebel.

    You can't have a reshuffle without someone getting booted out.
    In this reshuffle she could have.

    With Green, McLoughlin, and Brokenshire standing down it was possible.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,065
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well there's one positive about all of this, we know for sure that 2022 will have a different Tory leader. May will never be able to hang on now. She's created too many enemies and botched everything up one too many times.

    This Tweet has aged particularly well...

    She has made more progress on her talks with the EU than her predecessor did
    And lost his majority
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,392

    Scott_P said:

    @theousherwood: Just watching Dominic Grieve walk into Downing Street. A job would be one way to ensure no more nasty rebellions on Brexit legislation.

    @bbclaurak: Interesting ... what would he go back to having been in Cabinet before ? Raab’s job at Justice is vacant twitter.com/theousherwood/…

    Attorney General? I can't remember if Jeremy Wright has been reappointed or not?
    That's his old job... would he take it...
    Grieve would be an ideal CON leader
    He's my kind of Tory, plus it would be great to have someone who read History as PM.
    If a knowledge of history is required to be PM - you just went to the back of the queue.....
    I wave my A in A Level History certificate in your face.

    This was when A Levels were hard.
    No it wasn't. Not unless you have been lying about your age a great deal.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,769
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has made more progress on her talks with the EU than her predecessor did

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.
  • Scott_P said:

    @theousherwood: Just watching Dominic Grieve walk into Downing Street. A job would be one way to ensure no more nasty rebellions on Brexit legislation.

    @bbclaurak: Interesting ... what would he go back to having been in Cabinet before ? Raab’s job at Justice is vacant twitter.com/theousherwood/…

    Attorney General? I can't remember if Jeremy Wright has been reappointed or not?
    That's his old job... would he take it...
    Grieve would be an ideal CON leader
    He's my kind of Tory, plus it would be great to have someone who read History as PM.
    If a knowledge of history is required to be PM - you just went to the back of the queue.....
    I wave my A in A Level History certificate in your face.

    This was when A Levels were hard.
    No it wasn't. Not unless you have been lying about your age a great deal.
    I turn 40 this year.

    According to today's yoof, that makes me ancient.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    tpfkar said:

    tpfkar said:

    And reflecting on Justine Greening's demise, a terrible look for the PM, but is it just that they didn't get on? May must have figured that getting her out of the room is worth another Brexit rebel.

    You can't have a reshuffle without someone getting booted out.
    Goes without saying. But to brief out that you are going for a female, young, diverse team and then lose Justine Greening seems more than a little careless.
    Leadsom, Grayling and Fox were the obvious contenders for the sack. All still in office.
  • Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has made more progress on her talks with the EU than her predecessor did

    Wow. Where did that story originate? It was also over the media and even Nigel gave his endorsement.
    The Daily Telegraph.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,634
    midwinter said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well there's one positive about all of this, we know for sure that 2022 will have a different Tory leader. May will never be able to hang on now. She's created too many enemies and botched everything up one too many times.

    This Tweet has aged particularly well...

    She has made more progress on her talks with the EU than her predecessor did
    And lost his majority
    A mess of something not everything and if Cameron had made some progress with the EU in his talks he may have narrowly won his referendum and still be in No 10
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 937
    HYUFD said:

    To lose the UK from the EU was careless, to lose Poland and Hungary too would be disastrous
    He hasn't really understood the irony of not knowing who his 'Own Citizens' are.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,270

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,622
    HYUFD said:

    To lose the UK from the EU was careless, to lose Poland and Hungary too would be disastrous
    PEXIT and HEXIT
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,270
    For all the crap surrounding May and her team, could be worse...

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,622

    tpfkar said:

    And reflecting on Justine Greening's demise, a terrible look for the PM, but is it just that they didn't get on? May must have figured that getting her out of the room is worth another Brexit rebel.

    You can't have a reshuffle without someone getting booted out.
    The only Gay in the Village though
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    Scott_P said:

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
    That is what Brown did with Mandelson, a man he famously did not get on with. And it worked. It denied Cameron a majority in 2010.
  • tpfkar said:

    And reflecting on Justine Greening's demise, a terrible look for the PM, but is it just that they didn't get on? May must have figured that getting her out of the room is worth another Brexit rebel.

    You can't have a reshuffle without someone getting booted out.
    The only Gay in the Village though
    Nah, David Mundell is still there.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,214
    HYUFD said:

    To lose the UK from the EU was careless, to lose Poland and Hungary too would be disastrous
    It would however be enormously funny to see the reaction of a certain regular poster and thread writer of this parish.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,877
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
    That is what Brown did with Mandelson, a man he famously did not get on with. And it worked. It denied Cameron a majority in 2010.
    Yes, she does need Osborne back, but how can she get him back into parliament and get him to help implement Brexit, something he is vehemently against?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    To lose the UK from the EU was careless, to lose Poland and Hungary too would be disastrous
    Though support for the EU in Polish polls is at very high levels, considerably higher than polling for their own government. Poles know that the EU is a bulwark against tryrants more than most!

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,248

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has made more progress on her talks with the EU than her predecessor did

    Wow. Where did that story originate? It was also over the media and even Nigel gave his endorsement.
    The Daily Telegraph.
    Ah, that makes sense. It must have been Boris's idea and he was convinced he could force Theresa to implement it. It was a silly idea though and I'm pleased Theresa has stood firm.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
    That is what Brown did with Mandelson, a man he famously did not get on with. And it worked. It denied Cameron a majority in 2010.
    Yes, she does need Osborne back, but how can she get him back into parliament and get him to help implement Brexit, something he is vehemently against?
    Ennobling him is the obvious way. Having him back as an MP would probably be too dangerous for her. But it won't happen. She is too stubborn and he may well be too.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,500
    Sean_F said:

    Dubliner said:

    Mr. F, don't know much of Henry VIII beyond the basics, but was he really worse than John?

    I suspect that many of the PB Tories would prefer Henry to John. Henry was enforcing the Law,

    John was trying to raise taxes (for his foreign wars.
    Henry wasted a fortune, failing to conquer France.
    Henry V came bloody close.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,634
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
    That is what Brown did with Mandelson, a man he famously did not get on with. And it worked. It denied Cameron a majority in 2010.
    No the LDs denied Cameron a majority in 2010 not Mandelson, Labour got its lowest voteshare since 1983 at the 2010 general election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,634
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    To lose the UK from the EU was careless, to lose Poland and Hungary too would be disastrous
    It would however be enormously funny to see the reaction of a certain regular poster and thread writer of this parish.
    Especially as Alistair Meeks has a house in Hungary
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,634
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    To lose the UK from the EU was careless, to lose Poland and Hungary too would be disastrous
    Though support for the EU in Polish polls is at very high levels, considerably higher than polling for their own government. Poles know that the EU is a bulwark against tryrants more than most!

    For now, if it ever came to the Euro most Poles would oppose it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,634
    Danny565 said:
    Though not enough to give him a majority
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,500
    Scott_P said:
    Call in Nigel Farage and James Chapman.

    Not at the same time.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,270
    @MrHarryCole: Anti-Brexit stamps minister Margot James moved from Post brief.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,784
    Not the best caption. Sky are notorious for their cancellations department being the "negotiate a better deal" department in reality.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 937

    Not the best caption. Sky are notorious for their cancellations department being the "negotiate a better deal" department in reality.
    Oddly, I think this is being misreported slightly. His complaint is that they are breaking the spirit of the treaties NOW, in that UK firms are still in the Single Market and to exclude them from SM processes is actually illegal. His comments about the ECJ simply reflect that the ECJ is the protector of the Project, not the keeper of the Law.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,784
    Scott_P said:
    It's amusing that the NEC believes the party has any "future prospects". Time to disband already.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,248
    Scott_P said:
    'Syme had ceased to exist: he had never existed.'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,424

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    She has made more progress on her talks with the EU than her predecessor did

    Wow. Where did that story originate? It was also over the media and even Nigel gave his endorsement.
    The Daily Telegraph.
    Ah, that makes sense. It must have been Boris's idea and he was convinced he could force Theresa to implement it. It was a silly idea though and I'm pleased Theresa has stood firm.
    Justine Greening wasn't interested in the job....
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
    That is what Brown did with Mandelson, a man he famously did not get on with. And it worked. It denied Cameron a majority in 2010.
    No the LDs denied Cameron a majority in 2010 not Mandelson, Labour got its lowest voteshare since 1983 at the 2010 general election
    The Lib Dem seat total fell in 2010, and was quite a bit lower than was expected in the weeks running up to the election.

    IMO two factors were most crucial in denying Cameron a majority-

    1. The Tories performed very disappointingly in big cities, especially London. Virtually no-one foresaw the Tories not gaining seats like Westminster North, Birmingham Edgbaston, Hammersmith etc.

    2. The Tories failed to make a single gain in Scotland, again this was against prevailing expectations of them gaining up to 5 seats there.

    All of that said, it was widely anticipated in the run up to GE2010 that Cameron was not going to get a majority. It may well be that his chances of a majority died when the financial crisis forced him & Osborne to ditch the husky hugging optimism and swing towards an austerity policy, despite the high mid-term poll leads they continued to enjoy into 2009. Plus the expenses crisis.
  • We're going to be ok then. I negotiate my Sky subscription down pretty much every year!
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    To lose the UK from the EU was careless, to lose Poland and Hungary too would be disastrous
    Though support for the EU in Polish polls is at very high levels, considerably higher than polling for their own government. Poles know that the EU is a bulwark against tryrants more than most!

    That's laying it on a bit thick. A more obvious reality is that whilst Poland remains an enormous net beneficiary of EU funds its population will remain supportive of remaining a member.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,622

    Not the best caption. Sky are notorious for their cancellations department being the "negotiate a better deal" department in reality.
    Half price more access.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,634
    edited January 9
    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
    That is what Brown did with Mandelson, a man he famously did not get on with. And it worked. It denied Cameron a majority in 2010.
    No the LDs denied Cameron a majority in 2010 not Mandelson, Labour got its lowest voteshare since 1983 at the 2010 general election
    The Lib Dem seat total fell in 2010, and was quite a bit lower than was expected in the weeks running up to the election.

    IMO two factors were most crucial in denying Cameron a majority-

    1. The Tories performed very disappointingly in big cities, especially London. Virtually no-one foresaw the Tories not gaining seats like Westminster North, Birmingham Edgbaston, Hammersmith etc.

    2. The Tories failed to make a single gain in Scotland, again this was against prevailing expectations of them gaining up to 5 seats there.

    All of that said, it was widely anticipated in the run up to GE2010 that Cameron was not going to get a majority. It may well be that his chances of a majority died when the financial crisis forced him & Osborne to ditch the husky hugging optimism and swing towards an austerity policy, despite the high mid-term poll leads they continued to enjoy into 2009. Plus the expenses crisis.
    The LDs got 23% and it was LD seats in the Southwest which stayed LD in 2010 but went Tory in 2015 which were crucial to the Tory majority then.

    The Tories did even worse in London in 2015 than 2010 and the same in Scotland and still won a majority.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,125
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    To lose the UK from the EU was careless, to lose Poland and Hungary too would be disastrous
    It would however be enormously funny to see the reaction of a certain regular poster and thread writer of this parish.
    Especially as Alistair Meeks has a house in Hungary
    The odd fixation with my personal life continues, I see. Downthread you will note, should you care, that I agree with Mr Verhofstadt.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,125
    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
    That is what Brown did with Mandelson, a man he famously did not get on with. And it worked. It denied Cameron a majority in 2010.
    No the LDs denied Cameron a majority in 2010 not Mandelson, Labour got its lowest voteshare since 1983 at the 2010 general election
    The Lib Dem seat total fell in 2010, and was quite a bit lower than was expected in the weeks running up to the election.

    IMO two factors were most crucial in denying Cameron a majority-

    1. The Tories performed very disappointingly in big cities, especially London. Virtually no-one foresaw the Tories not gaining seats like Westminster North, Birmingham Edgbaston, Hammersmith etc.

    2. The Tories failed to make a single gain in Scotland, again this was against prevailing expectations of them gaining up to 5 seats there.

    All of that said, it was widely anticipated in the run up to GE2010 that Cameron was not going to get a majority. It may well be that his chances of a majority died when the financial crisis forced him & Osborne to ditch the husky hugging optimism and swing towards an austerity policy, despite the high mid-term poll leads they continued to enjoy into 2009. Plus the expenses crisis.
    The last point is untrue. I was able to back a hung Parliament at odds against three weeks before the general election with every bookie offering odds on it. It remains to this day one of my best political betting results.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:
    Though not enough to give him a majority
    If the people round that table are "older swing voters" they've had a lot of work done. Some look like they are 20something.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,062
    Those are absolutely terrifying focus-group results on Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,634

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    To lose the UK from the EU was careless, to lose Poland and Hungary too would be disastrous
    It would however be enormously funny to see the reaction of a certain regular poster and thread writer of this parish.
    Especially as Alistair Meeks has a house in Hungary
    The odd fixation with my personal life continues, I see. Downthread you will note, should you care, that I agree with Mr Verhofstadt.
    Well maybe you can enjoy living in two non EU European nations then!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,793
    edited January 9
    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:
    Though not enough to give him a majority
    If the people round that table are "older swing voters" they've had a lot of work done. Some look like they are 20something.
    The in-detail report says they did two focus groups, one with aged 18-30 voters and one with 55+ voters

    http://britainthinks.com/news/the-year-ahead-the-nations-mood-in-2018
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572
    HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
    That is what Brown did with Mandelson, a man he famously did not get on with. And it worked. It denied Cameron a majority in 2010.
    No the LDs denied Cameron a majority in 2010 not Mandelson, Labour got its lowest voteshare since 1983 at the 2010 general election
    The Lib Dem seat total fell in 2010, and was quite a bit lower than was expected in the weeks running up to the election.

    IMO two factors were most crucial in denying Cameron a majority-

    1. The Tories performed very disappointingly in big cities, especially London. Virtually no-one foresaw the Tories not gaining seats like Westminster North, Birmingham Edgbaston, Hammersmith etc.

    2. The Tories failed to make a single gain in Scotland, again this was against prevailing expectations of them gaining up to 5 seats there.

    All of that said, it was widely anticipated in the run up to GE2010 that Cameron was not going to get a majority. It may well be that his chances of a majority died when the financial crisis forced him & Osborne to ditch the husky hugging optimism and swing towards an austerity policy, despite the high mid-term poll leads they continued to enjoy into 2009. Plus the expenses crisis.
    The LDs got 23% and it was LD seats in the Southwest which stayed LD in 2010 but went Tory in 2015 which were crucial to the Tory majority then.

    The Tories did even worse in London in 2015 than 2010 and the same in Scotland and still won a majority.

    Yes but the Lib Dems were never going to collapse in 2010 like they did after the coalition.

    This is a major long term strategic problem for the Tories now, that they can only scrape a small majority whilst the Lib Dems are flat on their back....I doubt that will be the case for ever.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,796
    sarissa said:

    Scotlands NHS figures are worst recorded with large increase in those not seen in the four hour target.Poor figures and Sturgeon has apologised.

    Add in the failure of Wales NHS it is clear that the NHS throughout the UK needs a cross party working group to formulate plans on health and social care and funding for the next 10 years as Jeremy Hunt alluded to earlier in the week

    Last month, BBC analysis of NHS data showed that fewer patients in Scotland were waiting longer than four hours in A&E than they did in 2012/3 in contrast to England where the number had more than doubled.
    It found England had a 155% rise in long waits between 2012/3 and this year, up to 2.5 million a year
    Typical cheating lying unionist Tory and Labour fake news. They picked out ONE week, surprise surprise it was a bad one due to weather / flu. For many months Scotland's numbers have been significantly better than England , incredibly better than Wales and miles ahead of anything that Labour ever managed when they were wrecking the country.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 357
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well there's one positive about all of this, we know for sure that 2022 will have a different Tory leader. May will never be able to hang on now. She's created too many enemies and botched everything up one too many times.

    This Tweet has aged particularly well...

    She has made more progress on her talks with the EU than her predecessor did
    Can you make progress going backwards?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,622
    Scott_P said:
    Brilliant strategy though!!

    And anyway I am sure The Sun, Mail and Express said we have all the Trump Cards anyway!!

    Milk and Honey is wonderful BTW.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,749
    Scott_P said:
    I like this line of argument: "Other useless and disloyal people are being kept on, so why not me too?"

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,769

    Those are absolutely terrifying focus-group results on Corbyn.

    You mean terrifying for Tories?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,062

    Those are absolutely terrifying focus-group results on Corbyn.

    You mean terrifying for Tories?
    I mean terrifying for the country.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
    That is what Brown did with Mandelson, a man he famously did not get on with. And it worked. It denied Cameron a majority in 2010.
    No the LDs denied Cameron a majority in 2010 not Mandelson, Labour got its lowest voteshare since 1983 at the 2010 general election
    The Lib Dem seat total fell in 2010, and was quite a bit lower than was expected in the weeks running up to the election.

    IMO two factors were most crucial in denying Cameron a majority-

    1. The Tories performed very disappointingly in big cities, especially London. Virtually no-one foresaw the Tories not gaining seats like Westminster North, Birmingham Edgbaston, Hammersmith etc.

    2. The Tories failed to make a single gain in Scotland, again this was against prevailing expectations of them gaining up to 5 seats there.

    All of that said, it was widely anticipated in the run up to GE2010 that Cameron was not going to get a majority. It may well be that his chances of a majority died when the financial crisis forced him & Osborne to ditch the husky hugging optimism and swing towards an austerity policy, despite the high mid-term poll leads they continued to enjoy into 2009. Plus the expenses crisis.
    The last point is untrue. I was able to back a hung Parliament at odds against three weeks before the general election with every bookie offering odds on it. It remains to this day one of my best political betting results.
    Though the polls were clearly in NOM territory for some weeks ahead of the election, especially after the Cleggasm. I guess people just didn't believe the Tories wouldn't scrape a majority at the last minute.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,270
    sarissa said:

    Can you make progress going backwards?

    :smile:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,749

    Those are absolutely terrifying focus-group results on Corbyn.

    He is generally seen as a slightly obstinate idealist, in a cynical world.

    Naive possibly, but people like to believe in optimism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,634
    sarissa said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well there's one positive about all of this, we know for sure that 2022 will have a different Tory leader. May will never be able to hang on now. She's created too many enemies and botched everything up one too many times.

    This Tweet has aged particularly well...

    She has made more progress on her talks with the EU than her predecessor did
    Can you make progress going backwards?
    She has professed from what she was left with after the Brexit vote
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    To lose the UK from the EU was careless, to lose Poland and Hungary too would be disastrous
    It would however be enormously funny to see the reaction of a certain regular poster and thread writer of this parish.
    Especially as Alistair Meeks has a house in Hungary
    The odd fixation with my personal life continues, I see. Downthread you will note, should you care, that I agree with Mr Verhofstadt.
    There is a huge amount of uncouth bragging on here about supposed personal wealth....oooh I've just bought a brand new Jaguar, ooh I've just had a royalty cheque for 50 grand anyone know how I can spend it kind of comments.

    Strange that people pick on Alistair so much and leave the attention seeking braggers alone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,634
    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
    That is what Brown did with Mandelson, a man he famously did not get on with. And it worked. It denied Cameron a majority in 2010.
    No the LDs denied Cameron a majority in 2010 not Mandelson, Labour got its lowest voteshare since 1983 at the 2010 general election
    The Lib Dem seat total fell in 2010, and was quite a bit lower than was expected in the weeks running up to the election.

    IMO two factors were most crucial in denying Cameron a majority-

    1. The Tories performed very disappointingly in big cities, especially London. Virtually no-one foresaw the Tories not gaining seats like Westminster North, Birmingham Edgbaston, Hammersmith etc.

    2. The Tories failed to make a single gain in Scotland, again this was against prevailing expectations of them gaining up to 5 seats there.

    All of that said, it was widely anticipated in the run up to GE2010 that Cameron was not going to get a majority. It may well be that his chances of a majority died when the financial crisis forced him & Osborne to ditch the husky hugging optimism and swing towards an austerity policy, despite the high mid-term poll leads they continued to enjoy into 2009. Plus the expenses crisis.
    The LDs got 23% and it was LD seats in the Southwest which stayed LD in 2010 but went Tory in 2015 which were crucial to the Tory majority then.

    The Tories did even worse in London in 2015 than 2010 and the same in Scotland and still won a majority.

    Yes but the Lib Dems were never going to collapse in 2010 like they did after the coalition.

    This is a major long term strategic problem for the Tories now, that they can only scrape a small majority whilst the Lib Dems are flat on their back....I doubt that will be the case for ever.
    The Southwest seats are more strongly Tory now than any election since 1987, that is a net benefit to the Tories certainly
  • NEW THREAD

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,634

    Those are absolutely terrifying focus-group results on Corbyn.

    You mean terrifying for Tories?
    Actually a Corbyn premiership would probably be quite good for the Tories, in fact the worse it is for the country the better it is for a future Tory leader of the opposition. Hence it is next leader of the opposition that may be the real prize for top Tories, not a fag end PM
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,796

    Scott_P said:

    @theousherwood: Just watching Dominic Grieve walk into Downing Street. A job would be one way to ensure no more nasty rebellions on Brexit legislation.

    @bbclaurak: Interesting ... what would he go back to having been in Cabinet before ? Raab’s job at Justice is vacant twitter.com/theousherwood/…

    Attorney General? I can't remember if Jeremy Wright has been reappointed or not?
    That's his old job... would he take it...
    Grieve would be an ideal CON leader
    He's my kind of Tory, plus it would be great to have someone who read History as PM.
    If a knowledge of history is required to be PM - you just went to the back of the queue.....
    I wave my A in A Level History certificate in your face.

    This was when A Levels were hard.
    No it wasn't. Not unless you have been lying about your age a great deal.
    why would that be any different
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
    That is what Brown did with Mandelson, a man he famously did not get on with. And it worked. It denied Cameron a majority in 2010.
    No the LDs denied Cameron a majority in 2010 not Mandelson, Labour got its lowest voteshare since 1983 at the 2010 general election
    The Lib Dem seat total fell in 2010, and was quite a bit lower than was expected in the weeks running up to the election.

    IMO two factors were most crucial in denying Cameron a majority-

    1. The Tories performed very disappointingly in big cities, especially London. Virtually no-one foresaw the Tories not gaining seats like Westminster North, Birmingham Edgbaston, Hammersmith etc.

    2. The Tories failed to make a single gain in Scotland, again this was against prevailing expectations of them gaining up to 5 seats there.

    All of that said, it was widely anticipated in the run up to GE2010 that Cameron was not going to get a majority. It may well be that his chances of a majority died when the financial crisis forced him & Osborne to ditch the husky hugging optimism and swing towards an austerity policy, despite the high mid-term poll leads they continued to enjoy into 2009. Plus the expenses crisis.
    The LDs got 23% and it was LD seats in the Southwest which stayed LD in 2010 but went Tory in 2015 which were crucial to the Tory majority then.

    The Tories did even worse in London in 2015 than 2010 and the same in Scotland and still won a majority.

    Yes but the Lib Dems were never going to collapse in 2010 like they did after the coalition.

    This is a major long term strategic problem for the Tories now, that they can only scrape a small majority whilst the Lib Dems are flat on their back....I doubt that will be the case for ever.
    The Southwest seats are more strongly Tory now than any election since 1987, that is a net benefit to the Tories certainly
    One of the more interesting results in June was Labour recovering in the SW. They may well take at least one Cornish seat next time. LDs and Labour need a tacit pact down there.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,796
    Scott_P said:

    For all the crap surrounding May and her team, could be worse...

    LOL, fake Scot posts Fake Scots numbers
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,634
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    The idea must have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    Then when they change their mind, the story about the disgruntled civil servant will have come from a disgruntled civil servant.

    They really, really, really need Malcolm.

    In an ideal World, May would invite Osborne back "to clean up the blood spatter from his own execution"

    But she is not that smart.
    That is what Brown did with Mandelson, a man he famously did not get on with. And it worked. It denied Cameron a majority in 2010.
    No the LDs denied Cameron a majority in 2010 not Mandelson, Labour got its lowest voteshare since 1983 at the 2010 general election
    The Lib Dem seat total fell in 2010, and was quite a bit lower than was expected in the weeks running up to the election.

    IMO two factors were most crucial in denying Cameron a majority-

    1. The Tories performed very disappointingly in big cities, especially London. Virtually no-one foresaw the Tories not gaining seats like Westminster North, Birmingham Edgbaston, Hammersmith etc.

    2. The Tories failed to make a single gain in Scotland, again this was against prevailing expectations of them gaining up to 5 seats there.

    All of that said, it was widely anticipated in the run up to GE2010 that Cameron was not going to get a majority. It may well be that his chances of a majority died when the financial crisis forced him & Osborne to ditch the husky hugging optimism and swing towards an austerity policy, despite the high mid-term poll leads they continued to enjoy into 2009. Plus the expenses crisis.
    The LDs got 23% and it was LD seats in the Southwest which stayed LD in 2010 but went Tory in 2015 which were crucial to the Tory majority then.

    The Tories did even worse in London in 2015 than 2010 and the same in Scotland and still won a majority.

    Yes but the Lib Dems were never going to collapse in 2010 like they did after the coalition.

    This is a major long term strategic problem for the Tories now, that they can only scrape a small majority whilst the Lib Dems are flat on their back....I doubt that will be the case for ever.
    The Southwest seats are more strongly Tory now than any election since 1987, that is a net benefit to the Tories certainly
    One of the more interesting results in June was Labour recovering in the SW. They may well take at least one Cornish seat next time. LDs and Labour need a tacit pact down there.
    Falmouth and Cambourne was Labour of course from 1997 to 2001
This discussion has been closed.