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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s surprise backing could put a second Brexit referendum

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  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 503
    John_M said:

    Has anyone read the Cambridge Econometrics report on Brexit, as commissioned by that arch-Brexiteer, Sadiq Khan? Might stop some of more apocalyptic remainers huffing into their paper bags.

    https://www.camecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Preparing-for-Brexit-Final-Report_110118.pdf

    You weren't expecting it to be positive about Brexit were you? A model delivers the outputs you want based on the inputs you input. If Leave.Eu had commissioned a study with a different spec from the same people I expect the results might well have been different.

    Brexit may result in this or that as may remaining - but no one has a crystal ball. Mystig Meg's forecasts in recent years might have been as accurate as many supposed forecasters.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,155
    Scott_P said:
    Theresa would be in an awful fix. She'd have to endorse Leave or be branded a saboteur, but her endorsement would at once make Leave look decidedly less sexy and more like to lose. But if Leave did lose she'd be branded a saboteur anyway. What to do?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 503
    Scott_P said:
    Farage has no power to deliver a second referendum - May and Corbyn do and for different reasons they won't want one.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 999

    Scott_P said:
    Theresa would be in an awful fix. She'd have to endorse Leave or be branded a saboteur, but her endorsement would at once make Leave look decidedly less sexy and more like to lose. But if Leave did lose she'd be branded a saboteur anyway. What to do?
    Which is another reason why it wont happen.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,508


    Off Topic - Last night I watched a debate between Tony Benn and Roy Jenkins which took place during the common market vote in '75.

    Fascinating stuff without a hint of soundbites and buckets of substance. Both the standard of the politicians and the journalism pales in comparison nowadays.

    What's more depressing is that I couldn't see such a level of debate ever taking place between toady's crop of politicians on either side of the divide.

    Worth a watch if you have a spare 50 minutes.

    Today’s politicians could respond in that thoughtful manner if they chose.
    They would then be carefully quoted out of context and spend the next month denying all sorts of things. Indeed Corbyn started off his time as leader doing just that and has subsequently learnt its not the way to do politics in today’s media.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,838
    TGOHF said:

    We need Toby Young to come out for a second referendum now.

    The mental gymnastics would be Olga Korbut standard.

    Particularly if he pushed his progressive eugenics agenda and demanded that the franchise be withdrawn from the thicko underclasses and 'stains'.

    'Christ, we've got to let them vote on this! We can start the compulsory sterilisation programme afterwards.'
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,150

    Scott_P said:
    Theresa would be in an awful fix. She'd have to endorse Leave or be branded a saboteur, but her endorsement would at once make Leave look decidedly less sexy and more like to lose. But if Leave did lose she'd be branded a saboteur anyway. What to do?
    Simple. Do absolutely nothing. None of the problems above (all entirely plausible), would then happen.

    Which is why it's not going to happen.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,007

    Scott_P said:
    Theresa would be in an awful fix. She'd have to endorse Leave or be branded a saboteur, but her endorsement would at once make Leave look decidedly less sexy and more like to lose. But if Leave did lose she'd be branded a saboteur anyway. What to do?
    It doesn't matter what Nigel Farage wants. It's not going to happen.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,246
    brendan16 said:

    John_M said:

    Has anyone read the Cambridge Econometrics report on Brexit, as commissioned by that arch-Brexiteer, Sadiq Khan? Might stop some of more apocalyptic remainers huffing into their paper bags.

    https://www.camecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Preparing-for-Brexit-Final-Report_110118.pdf

    You weren't expecting it to be positive about Brexit were you? A model delivers the outputs you want based on the inputs you input. If Leave.Eu had commissioned a study with a different spec from the same people I expect the results might well have been different.

    Brexit may result in this or that as may remaining - but no one has a crystal ball. Mystig Meg's forecasts in recent years might have been as accurate as many supposed forecasters.
    The point is fairly simple, the economic impacts look quite mild - very much in line with the NIESR forecasts pre-EUref. The worst case scenario (the 'cliff-edge') equates to growth foregone of around 3% GDP by 2030. The more likely scenarios are milder still.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,155
    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    I don't see any Leavers in a spin.

    @IsabelOakeshott: Brexiteers need more of the message discipline displayed by Remoaners. If we don't sing from the same hymn sheet @Nigel_Farage it doesn't help our cause

    Oakeshott is right to be dismayed. Leave's best card was that 'the Will of the People' bestowed upon Brexit an almost mystical immutability. Nigel has just shot that to pieces.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,521
    edited January 11
    Referendums are never about what they are about, as I would have hoped we all realised by now. Euref2 under TMay will be a referendum on TMay. She would be screwed, because she is logically obliged to be a Remainer in Euref2, for reasons set out by her here: https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html
    At the moment she can say she is bowing to the will of the people in implementing brexit, but the will of the people will necessarily be up for review if we are asking them to vote again. So how does she get out of that mess without looking like a slippery opportunist and liar?

    Edit: yippee! just had a burgundy passport valid to May 2028 delivered.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,007

    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    I don't see any Leavers in a spin.

    @IsabelOakeshott: Brexiteers need more of the message discipline displayed by Remoaners. If we don't sing from the same hymn sheet @Nigel_Farage it doesn't help our cause

    Oakeshott is right to be dismayed. Leave's best card was that 'the Will of the People' bestowed upon Brexit an almost mystical immutability. Nigel has just shot that to pieces.
    You overestimate his importance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,230

    There's no particular evidence that public opinion has changed much since the referendum so I'm not currently in favour of holding a fresh one.

    Plus EU Federalists like Schulz and Verhofstadt would not want us back anyway unless we joined the Euro and Remain won a landslide. Verhofstadt is already warning Poland that it may have to leave the EU never mind welcoming the UK back
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,884
    I doubt Farage seriously proposes a second referendum. He is winding up Remainers who have called for one and it keeps the topic live as it heads into a stalemate.

    Personally I find Brexit interesting because it is so pointless. It makes the outcomes less predictable. If it had a clear purpose we would know where it was going.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 774
    Nigel is a sad old friendless publicity whore, not worth the time of day.

    The next EU referendum should be on our re-entry accession package in 10 years time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,322
    This is quite absurd.
    The first referendum only happened after the leaders of all three parties had previously called for it, and it had been included in the election manifesto of the winning party.

    The idea that a comment by the ridiculous Farage will make a shred of difference is more than a stretch.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 503
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    I don't see any Leavers in a spin.

    @IsabelOakeshott: Brexiteers need more of the message discipline displayed by Remoaners. If we don't sing from the same hymn sheet @Nigel_Farage it doesn't help our cause

    Oakeshott is right to be dismayed. Leave's best card was that 'the Will of the People' bestowed upon Brexit an almost mystical immutability. Nigel has just shot that to pieces.
    You overestimate his importance.
    Farage's comment needs to be seen in context. He stated first that Clegg. Blair and Adonis have made it clear they will never accept the result and never stop trying to reverse Brexit. So the second vote was needed because those forces wouldn't accept the first result.

    If these and other people had accepted the first vote - even though they disagreed with it - his argument wouldn't apply. Perhaps best not for him not to appear on early morning shows with arch remainers and New European contributors like Yasmin Alibhai Brown which trigger him into making silly statements perhaps?

    Unless Gove and Boris and Stuart and Hoey call for a second referendum on the leave side the idea is going nowhere. And May and Corbyn won't want one.

    We are leaving the EU - what form that departure takes is still to be determined but we are too far gone now to stop it. We may rejoin one day but we are going to leave. The rest is frankly fantasy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097

    brendan16 said:

    This is the most important story in London? Seriously?

    It's a legitimate news story but is that really the West End Final edition? That's what George should look into.
    How low the Standard has fallen under Osborne - it's just being used for him to settle scores and exercise vendettas.

    Yes. Let's cancel Brexit as ending Freedom of movement is going to be bad for the lap dancing industry?
    One of the most important deals I ever oversaw was concluded in Stringfellows.

    They serve food in there, it was the client who chose the venue, not me.
    It is actually a pretty good bar and place to eat. And they used to be one of very few places in central London with an all-night licence. Friend of mine once got back home at 7am, had a shower and left for work (as young city types are known to do occasionally!), then called me an hour later in a panic - as he realised he’d left his father’s credit card behind the bar at Stringfellows!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,094
    Cyclefree said:

    I never want to see or hear from Nigel Farage ever again.

    How about a referendum on exiling him to St Helena?

    Harsh.

    On St. Helena.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,322
    brendan16 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    I don't see any Leavers in a spin.

    @IsabelOakeshott: Brexiteers need more of the message discipline displayed by Remoaners. If we don't sing from the same hymn sheet @Nigel_Farage it doesn't help our cause

    Oakeshott is right to be dismayed. Leave's best card was that 'the Will of the People' bestowed upon Brexit an almost mystical immutability. Nigel has just shot that to pieces.
    You overestimate his importance.
    Farage's comment needs to be seen in context. He stated first that Clegg. Blair and Adonis have made it clear they will never accept the result and never stop trying to reverse Brexit. So the second vote was needed because those forces wouldn't accept the first result...
    That is yet more ridiculous.
    If we are obliged to hold a referendum every time one of that trio opine on something, We will need a new constitutional settlement of rather greater reach than mere Brexit...
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,188

    No Another One!

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,636
    John_M said:

    The point is fairly simple, the economic impacts look quite mild - very much in line with the NIESR forecasts pre-EUref. The worst case scenario (the 'cliff-edge') equates to growth foregone of around 3% GDP by 2030. The more likely scenarios are milder still.

    Their model produces quite astonishingly small effects, and also suspiciously smooth ones (surely there should be a bigger short-term impact and then some recovery in scenario 5, for example?). However, it's worth noting that, at they say (page 44), other economic models show much bigger effects. So who knows?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    edited January 11
    Kellyanne Conway must have one of the Western world’s most difficult jobs.

    I imagine she’s also one of very few people who can tell Trump what to do - except to stop Tweeting of course, no-one can make him do that!!
  • BromBrom Posts: 925
    Nigel should know better than trolling arch remainers. Now all the twitter sorts who wished him harm and pleading with the rest of the country to listen to him.

    The only forseeable path to a 2nd referendum is a recession, something that is growing less likely in the wake of the recent positive economic news. That recession needs to hit within the next 12 months IMO or we're out.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,188
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Referendums are never about what they are about, as I would have hoped we all realised by now. Euref2 under TMay will be a referendum on TMay. She would be screwed, because she is logically obliged to be a Remainer in Euref2, for reasons set out by her here: https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html
    At the moment she can say she is bowing to the will of the people in implementing brexit, but the will of the people will necessarily be up for review if we are asking them to vote again. So how does she get out of that mess without looking like a slippery opportunist and liar?

    Edit: yippee! just had a burgundy passport valid to May 2028 delivered.


    TMay would have to remain neutral, and say: here's the deal decide what you want.

    Not that it's going to happen anyway.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,230
    edited January 11
    It is of course not impossible Corbyn could back Leave in any second EU referendum as that is where his heart lies having done his duty and grudgingly backed Remain in EU ref1. That would leave the Remain campaign led by Umunna, Osborne, Soubry, Clegg, Blair and Cable. No prizes for guessing where most of the working class vote will go
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,155
    brendan16 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    I don't see any Leavers in a spin.

    @IsabelOakeshott: Brexiteers need more of the message discipline displayed by Remoaners. If we don't sing from the same hymn sheet @Nigel_Farage it doesn't help our cause

    Oakeshott is right to be dismayed. Leave's best card was that 'the Will of the People' bestowed upon Brexit an almost mystical immutability. Nigel has just shot that to pieces.
    You overestimate his importance.
    Farage's comment needs to be seen in context. He stated first that Clegg. Blair and Adonis have made it clear they will never accept the result and never stop trying to reverse Brexit. So the second vote was needed because those forces wouldn't accept the first result.

    If these and other people had accepted the first vote - even though they disagreed with it - his argument wouldn't apply. Perhaps best not for him not to appear on early morning shows with arch remainers and New European contributors like Yasmin Alibhai Brown which trigger him into making silly statements perhaps?

    Unless Gove and Boris and Stuart and Hoey call for a second referendum on the leave side the idea is going nowhere. And May and Corbyn won't want one.

    We are leaving the EU - what form that departure takes is still to be determined but we are too far gone now to stop it. We may rejoin one day but we are going to leave. The rest is frankly fantasy.
    Stuart and Hoey are fringe figures and largely irrelevant. It's what Boris says that counts. If he was feeling mischievous he'd back Farage's call. He probably has enough political capital not to be branded a saboteur by the Leave media and it would completely destabilize Theresa.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,838
    Brom said:

    Nigel should know better than trolling arch remainers. Now all the twitter sorts who wished him harm and pleading with the rest of the country to listen to him.

    Who are these sorts?
    Afaics everyone who always thought he was a dick are still strongly stating that he's a dick.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    edited January 11

    murali_s said:

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.

    I am reminded of the Winchester by-election in 1997. A 2-vote margin in the general election became a 21,556 vote majority in the by-election.
    And a second EU referendum would look very different to the first. The leave campaign slogan would be along the lines of “Which bit of ‘Leave the EU’ didn’t you morons understand when you asked us last time?” The UKIP poster would have that slogan under a poster of Blair, Clegg and Osborne, all dressed in morning suits.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 503
    Sandpit said:

    Kellyanne Conway must have one of the Western world’s most difficult jobs.

    I imagine she’s also one of very few people who can tell Trump what to do - except to stop Tweeting of course, no-one can make him do that!!
    Surprised she is still there frankly. Pretty much Trumps entire team - bar his family - who worked for a year or more to get him elected has been dumped, sacked, discredited or disowned by him. All those who stood by him when the Bush tapes came out and went on screen to defend him - what thanks did they get from him.

    When you see what Trump does to his most loyal followers and confidantes why would you bother.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 1,935
    Mortimer said:

    murali_s said:

    Mortimer said:

    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.

    Grow up, my young Tory friend.

    It’s the ignorant Leavers like yourself that are in a spin.

    Jesus, the lunacy of some on this site beggars belief...

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.
    As offensive as ever, I see.

    Oh, and inaccurate; I don't see any Leavers in a spin.
    FFS - Grow a pair!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,094
    I'm trying to see Farage's comments in the context of him having another shot at leading UKIP.

    Hmmmmm.... Still puzzled. If a second referendum was called to endorse Crap Skinny Brexit, would he vote against it - so that he could then lobby for Full-Fat Brexit for the next decade or two? Because a second vote supporting Crap Skinny Brexit wouldn't settle the matter, would it Nigel?

    Or is he saying "Bored of Brexit, I'll take whatever terms are on offer - so long as you all STFU about Brexit now? Capiche?"

    Or is it just that Farage is a wanker who likes the sound of his own voice, even if all he is saying is "Rhubarb blancmange aerofoil headlights"?
  • BromBrom Posts: 925

    Brom said:

    Nigel should know better than trolling arch remainers. Now all the twitter sorts who wished him harm and pleading with the rest of the country to listen to him.

    Who are these sorts?
    Afaics everyone who always thought he was a dick are still strongly stating that he's a dick.
    Even Lord Adonis is quoting him now, the man the remainers called a liar and racist now deserves an audience apparently.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 503
    Nigelb said:
    Man has affair - before being elected to office as Govermor - wife forgives him. They stay together.

    If he was having extra marital relations in the Governor's mansion it might be a real news story.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 329
    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    Sean_F said:

    This is the most important story in London? Seriously?

    I'd have thought that was good news for the Tories.
    Stringfellow is going to front the Remain campaign in EURefII.
    Has the resignation letter been hand delivered yet ?
    Don't bring Lord Falconer into this.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,519
    brendan16 said:

    Nigelb said:
    Man has affair - before being elected to office as Govermor - wife forgives him. They stay together.

    If he was having extra marital relations in the Governor's mansion it might be a real news story.
    "he is denying allegations that he tried to blackmail the woman into silence."
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 329
    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    I don't see any Leavers in a spin.

    @IsabelOakeshott: Brexiteers need more of the message discipline displayed by Remoaners. If we don't sing from the same hymn sheet @Nigel_Farage it doesn't help our cause

    Chortle.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,105
    murali_s said:

    Mortimer said:

    murali_s said:

    Mortimer said:

    Gosh the Remainers are getting a little excitable today.

    As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.

    Grow up, my young Tory friend.

    It’s the ignorant Leavers like yourself that are in a spin.

    Jesus, the lunacy of some on this site beggars belief...

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.
    As offensive as ever, I see.

    Oh, and inaccurate; I don't see any Leavers in a spin.
    FFS - Grow a pair!
    QED.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 503
    edited January 11

    FWIW, my opinion is that if we had a straight re-run of the vote now, or more particularly when the terms of "the deal" are known, then Remain would win at least 55-45.

    1 - folk are much better informed now than they were in June 2016, and know what the stakes are. Nobody will believe £350m a week is heading to the NHS for example

    2 - the youth vote / Corbynite Momentumers will swing it for Remain


    I don't think Farage wants a second vote at all. No way. I reckon we'll get a "clarification" from Farage in short order. He's known for going back on his various utterances once he's properly engaged his brain...

    We were confidently promised remain would win first time round for similar reasons. Cameron's own pollster issued a poll at 10pm as the polls closed - showing remain 10 per cent ahead.

    You seem to think Momentumites are pro EU - the Labour Party may be but not them. Their leaders Corbyn and McDonnell are quite keen on Brexit in some ways - those state aid rules are a block on true socialism.

    It's all academic though - May and Corbyn won't want one and unless May puts a second refendum bill in parliament which she won't there can't be one before March 2019.

    Brexit means Brexit - and Mrs May is going to make a right mess of it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,838
    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Nigel should know better than trolling arch remainers. Now all the twitter sorts who wished him harm and pleading with the rest of the country to listen to him.

    Who are these sorts?
    Afaics everyone who always thought he was a dick are still strongly stating that he's a dick.
    Even Lord Adonis is quoting him now, the man the remainers called a liar and racist now deserves an audience apparently.
    Is Adonis 'pleading with the rest of the country to listen to him'?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,365
    HYUFD said:

    It is of course not impossible Corbyn could back Leave in any second EU referendum as that is where his heart lies having done his duty and grudgingly backed Remain in EU ref1. That would leave the Remain campaign led by Umunna, Osborne, Soubry, Clegg, Blair and Cable. No prizes for guessing where most of the working class vote will go

    The Prime Minister was a remainer and there are many others in the Cabinet and the Conservative Party. Why would they not be involved in any second referendum campaign?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,961
    Of course he wants a second referendum. The only options are 1) take the deal the government has negotiated; or 2) reject the deal the government has negotiated.

    And 2) of course = no deal.

    It is a free option for him.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,519

    murali_s said:

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.

    I am reminded of the Winchester by-election in 1997. A 2-vote margin in the general election became a 21,556 vote majority in the by-election.
    Ok, lets see who's right.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,094

    murali_s said:

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.

    I am reminded of the Winchester by-election in 1997. A 2-vote margin in the general election became a 21,556 vote majority in the by-election.
    Yep. The voters would say "What part of "we are going to Brexit" don't you understand?"

    People seem to forget that as recently as June 2017, 86% voted for parties who said they would implement Brexit.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 329

    I'm trying to see Farage's comments in the context of him having another shot at leading UKIP.

    Hmmmmm.... Still puzzled. If a second referendum was called to endorse Crap Skinny Brexit, would he vote against it - so that he could then lobby for Full-Fat Brexit for the next decade or two? Because a second vote supporting Crap Skinny Brexit wouldn't settle the matter, would it Nigel?

    Or is he saying "Bored of Brexit, I'll take whatever terms are on offer - so long as you all STFU about Brexit now? Capiche?"

    Or is it just that Farage is a wanker who likes the sound of his own voice, even if all he is saying is "Rhubarb blancmange aerofoil headlights"?

    I would have thought it obvious. There is no 'Nigel Farage' if the UK is outside the EU. He needs us to be so his lifelong whining continues to have a target. Ying and yang.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 329
    brendan16 said:

    FWIW, my opinion is that if we had a straight re-run of the vote now, or more particularly when the terms of "the deal" are known, then Remain would win at least 55-45.

    1 - folk are much better informed now than they were in June 2016, and know what the stakes are. Nobody will believe £350m a week is heading to the NHS for example

    2 - the youth vote / Corbynite Momentumers will swing it for Remain


    I don't think Farage wants a second vote at all. No way. I reckon we'll get a "clarification" from Farage in short order. He's known for going back on his various utterances once he's properly engaged his brain...

    We were confidently promised remain would win first time round for similar reasons. Cameron's own pollster issued a poll at 10pm as the polls closed - showing remain 10 per cent ahead.

    You seem to think Momentumites are pro EU - the Labour Party may be but not them. Their leaders Corbyn and McDonnell are quite keen on Brexit in some ways - those state aid rules are a block on true socialism.

    It's all academic though - May and Corbyn won't want one and unless May puts a second refendum bill in parliament which she won't there can't be one before March 2019.

    Brexit means Brexit - and Mrs May is going to make a right mess of it.
    The Momentum membership is very strongly pro-EU – Corbyn and McD much less so.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 329
    currystar said:

    Farage knows his career is over when leave happens, so in reaility he does not want to leave the EU, he just wants to keep saying that we should.

    Indeed, both his career and his pension!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,884
    John_M said:


    The point is fairly simple, the economic impacts look quite mild - very much in line with the NIESR forecasts pre-EUref. The worst case scenario (the 'cliff-edge') equates to growth foregone of around 3% GDP by 2030. The more likely scenarios are milder still.

    The problem with this kind of analysis is that it tends to assume things will carry on in the same way. There are reasons to believe that things will be different in specific ways. I would say the medium term outlook for Brexit is likely to be worse and the long term possibly better than implied by a straight case scenario line. Short term it will probably be OK but it could be a lot worse.

    If we crash out now over a cliff-edge it will be accompanied by a political crisis as well as an economic shock. It would be a lot worse than predicted in this report. We will very likely avoid that outcome. Things should be reasonably OK in the short term, as parties try to minimise disruption until at least the end of 2020. We know from counterfactuals - previous growth rates, predicted growth rates and the growth rates elsewhere in Europe - that Brexit has had a drag of about 0.5% to 0.7% points on GDP growth in 2017. That's likely to continue for the next couple of years at least.

    In the medium term it is likely that banks will move significant parts of their operations into the EU, new automotive investments will happen in the EU at the expense of the UK, and possibly the same will happen with pharmaceuticals. These are important industries for the UK. Regulation authority goes with markets, which is why banks tend to be in the markets they serve. If we are in the EEA or equivalent, I believe the drift will still happen, but possibly more slowly. A similar story potentially with pharmaceuticals. With cars it's rules of origin, which makes it more expensive to export cars and components to third countries from the UK than from the EU. Manufacturers will invest accordingly.

    Given that and a current 0.5% or so annual drag on GDP growth, I would say 3% cumulative growth foregone by 2030 is optimistic, although I obviously can't point to a different other figure.

    Long term, no-one knows. The EU and the UK quite likely won't be there in their current forms. Even if we are still alive we will have long given up caring about a vote that took place decades earlier.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,113

    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    I don't see any Leavers in a spin.

    @IsabelOakeshott: Brexiteers need more of the message discipline displayed by Remoaners. If we don't sing from the same hymn sheet @Nigel_Farage it doesn't help our cause

    Oakeshott is right to be dismayed. Leave's best card was that 'the Will of the People' bestowed upon Brexit an almost mystical immutability. Nigel has just shot that to pieces.
    I think leave's best card was winning the referendum.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,817
    All Farage has done is hurt himself with the leave base,can see him getting some stick on his LBC show.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 333
    MattW said:

    brendan16 said:

    Here is the apparent source of the 150 per cent rise in homophobic hate crimes. Of course when you see it is only in fact just over 100 extra cases compared to the millions of LGBT Brits you don't get the context. While all genuine cases are regrettable the percentages make a better headline than the actual numbers.

    Apparently there was a 100 per cent rise in Brits applying for French passports last year - but that was only 1500 extra applications compared to the more than 400,000 French people who live in London alone many of whom will be married to Brits and have kids who will be eligible for French passports even though they are 'British'. Beware headlines quoting percentages on small samples!

    London is seeing very large spikes in homophobic attacks relative to other regions - it also has the lowest proportion of Brexit voters. If it's down to Brexit voters why are the biggest rises in remain voting areas? Perhaps blaming Brexit is a bit too simplistic.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/oct/08/homophobic-attacks-double-after-brexit-vote


    Oh - THAT one. The Guardian didn't provide any evidence either.

    The only number remotely similar to 147% was an increase in the number of phone calls for help from 72 to 189 on the helpline of Galop, which the Guardian transformed into a headline about national crime levels. Though 189/72 is 159%.

    Who knows - perhaps they had a publicity drive?

    The 147% does not occur in the Galop "Hate Crime 2016" report referenced either.

    I'm not disagreeing with the need for appropriate measures, just pointing out the general shitty quality of our media.

    The Galop helpline is an 0800 number, so they presumably cover Scotland too - so much for Wee Ginger Dug's "England and Wales". Perhaps he is a Red Setter.
    official statistics for 2016/17:

    27% increase in one year, 63% increase over two years, without taking transgender hate crime into account (which increased even more).

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjYoZ60gNDYAhULB8AKHUBaBPgQFggtMAE&url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/652136/hate-crime-1617-hosb1717.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0jIYKBZF5COZ0Bt3-Zl_Qu
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 996

    All Farage has done is hurt himself with the leave base,can see him getting some stick on his LBC show.

    If he continues to make insightful comments, his next statement may be

    'Ladies and gentlemen, if these are the terms we get from leaving, we may as well remain.'
  • BromBrom Posts: 925

    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    I don't see any Leavers in a spin.

    @IsabelOakeshott: Brexiteers need more of the message discipline displayed by Remoaners. If we don't sing from the same hymn sheet @Nigel_Farage it doesn't help our cause

    Oakeshott is right to be dismayed. Leave's best card was that 'the Will of the People' bestowed upon Brexit an almost mystical immutability. Nigel has just shot that to pieces.
    I think leave's best card was winning the referendum.
    hear hear
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404
    edited January 11
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,155
    I see Aaron Banks has joined Nigel with a call for a second referendum.

    https://order-order.com/2018/01/11/banks-flip-flop-on-second-referendum/

    Leave needs to squash this pair quickly - label them saboteurs , closet remoaners, anything - or else the momentum for a second referendum will become unstoppable.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292

    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    I don't see any Leavers in a spin.

    @IsabelOakeshott: Brexiteers need more of the message discipline displayed by Remoaners. If we don't sing from the same hymn sheet @Nigel_Farage it doesn't help our cause

    Oakeshott is right to be dismayed. Leave's best card was that 'the Will of the People' bestowed upon Brexit an almost mystical immutability. Nigel has just shot that to pieces.
    I think leave's best card was winning the referendum.
    That, or the bus. ;)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,190

    murali_s said:

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.

    I am reminded of the Winchester by-election in 1997. A 2-vote margin in the general election became a 21,556 vote majority in the by-election.
    Yep. The voters would say "What part of "we are going to Brexit" don't you understand?"

    People seem to forget that as recently as June 2017, 86% voted for parties who said they would implement Brexit.
    It was Nigel Farage's wailing and whinging for ages about the result of the first referendum that caused the second.
    Yes, the Winchester result suggests it would be a walkover, but with a properly organised Remain campaign which could polnt out that yes, things are likely to get harder...... standing in the Non-EU queue to get onto the Canary Islands is demonstrably a distinct possibility, and more young people voting Winchester might turn out to be an abberation.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404
    Sean_F said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I bet Nick Timothy will advise Mrs May to hold another referendum.

    Perhaps he can add in a policy of taxing people with breast cancer while he’s at it.

    LOL! What would Nick Timothy's ideal manifesto include?

    1. Abolishing charitable status for animal sanctuaries and the RNLI
    2. Halving the State Retirement Pension
    3. Doubling tuition fees
    4. Imposing a charge for cat ownership
    5. Axing child benefit.

    :lol:

    Does anyone believe his article on Justine Greening? How is even still relevant?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,094

    I see Aaron Banks has joined Nigel with a call for a second referendum.

    https://order-order.com/2018/01/11/banks-flip-flop-on-second-referendum/

    Leave needs to squash this pair quickly - label them saboteurs , closet remoaners, anything - or else the momentum for a second referendum will become unstoppable.

    lol!

    When Corbyn says he wants a second referendum, wake me up.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,521
    Looks a bit of a straw man. Is anyone seriously saying that young voters "just want free stuff"?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,879
    NHS Winter crisis hasn't turned into Corbyn's trump card.

    Bumping along with a 1% polling lead.

  • stevefstevef Posts: 999
    Tony Blair has refused to rule out a third referendum if the second referendum which isnt going to happen is won by Leave.

    LOL. You really couldnt make it up.

    https://order-order.com/2018/01/04/blair-doesnt-rule-third-referendum/
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 503
    edited January 11

    'official statistics for 2016/17:

    27% increase in one year, 63% increase over two years, without taking transgender hate crime into account (which increased even more).

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjYoZ60gNDYAhULB8AKHUBaBPgQFggtMAE&url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/652136/hate-crime-1617-hosb1717.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0jIYKBZF5COZ0Bt3-Zl_Qu,


    Perhaps what someone should ask is why if there was a supposed huge rise in REPORTED hate crimes why the number of PROSECUTIONS for hate crimes fell in 2016-17. Seems there was a bigger percentage rise as well in 2015-16 than 2016-17 year on year. All down to Brexit including homophobic and transphobic crimes - perhaps it's more complex!

    Who defines what a hate crime is - the person reporting - who defines what genuine prosecutable crimes are - the police and CPS.

    If a Polish man and a white British man have a brawl outside a pub and both end up in hospital - is one the victim of a hate crime and the other just GBH?

    If an elderly white lady gets mugged and beaten by a black kid is it just a mugging but if it's an elderly black lady who is the victim of a white thug is it s hate crime? I doubt the two old ladies beaten and bruised in hospital feel much differently?

    Is someone who doesn't like Katie Hopkins tweets - or objects to being fat shamed on her reality tv show - equally the victim of a hate crime as someone who is beaten up or is the victim of an arson attack.

    And if you set up new websites to report them and promote them along with the argument a hate crime epidemic is occurring due to evil racist Brexit voters won't you get more reports anyway?

    In the end aren't most crimes against people hateful - and shouldn't we treat them all equally. Verbal abuse is verbal abuse, arson is arson, GBH is GBH. Because knowing what the person thought when they were doing it rather than what they did can be a bit subjective?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Good afternoon, my fellow Second Punic War enthusiasts.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,094

    murali_s said:

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.

    I am reminded of the Winchester by-election in 1997. A 2-vote margin in the general election became a 21,556 vote majority in the by-election.
    Yep. The voters would say "What part of "we are going to Brexit" don't you understand?"

    People seem to forget that as recently as June 2017, 86% voted for parties who said they would implement Brexit.
    It was Nigel Farage's wailing and whinging for ages about the result of the first referendum that caused the second.
    Yes, the Winchester result suggests it would be a walkover, but with a properly organised Remain campaign which could polnt out that yes, things are likely to get harder...... standing in the Non-EU queue to get onto the Canary Islands is demonstrably a distinct possibility, and more young people voting Winchester might turn out to be an abberation.
    86%. For Brexit-implementing parties.

    Seven months ago.

    And not a sniff of Corbyn suggesting he wants a second referendum. Quite the reverse. This, from just two weeks ago.

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/12/28/jeremy-corbyn-doesnt-want-second-referendum-brexit-7188067/

    But yes, I'm sure he will now fold to Nigel Farage's greater intellectual position..... *chortle*
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,190
    Totally, utterly off-topic, but yesterday I went to our local Co-op to buy some bits for dinner, and there were two nubile young women, with Battersea Dogs Home tabards standing in the foyer. I made my small purchases and tried to leave when I was accosted by one of them, who, with a very winning smile, asked “Cat? Or Dog?
    ‘Neither' I said. ‘Rabbit!'
    ‘Why'; more than slightly flummoxed.
    ‘Cos you can eat rabbit!’

    Short discussion about how anyone could eat little fluffy bunnies and an explantion from me that I don’t donate to animal charities and I was allowed to leave which much shaking of heads and sadness at how they could have met such a hard-hearted old man!
  • stevefstevef Posts: 999
    neverendingendumendumendumendum........
  • dr_spyn said:

    NHS Winter crisis hasn't turned into Corbyn's trump card.

    Bumping along with a 1% polling lead.

    The spotlight on the NHS and today's demand for an additional 30 billion + annual spend brings the whole debate to a new level.

    The rate of tax increase to address just the 30 billion is eye-watering without all the other demands by labour to scrap the public sector wage freeze, abolish student fees, add 20,000 new police officers together with increases in all benefits.

    This may not work as well for labour as they hoped because the conservativesare trusted more on the economy as is May and Hammond
  • stevefstevef Posts: 999

    murali_s said:

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.

    I am reminded of the Winchester by-election in 1997. A 2-vote margin in the general election became a 21,556 vote majority in the by-election.
    Yep. The voters would say "What part of "we are going to Brexit" don't you understand?"

    People seem to forget that as recently as June 2017, 86% voted for parties who said they would implement Brexit.
    It was Nigel Farage's wailing and whinging for ages about the result of the first referendum that caused the second.
    Yes, the Winchester result suggests it would be a walkover, but with a properly organised Remain campaign which could polnt out that yes, things are likely to get harder...... standing in the Non-EU queue to get onto the Canary Islands is demonstrably a distinct possibility, and more young people voting Winchester might turn out to be an abberation.
    86%. For Brexit-implementing parties.

    Seven months ago.

    And not a sniff of Corbyn suggesting he wants a second referendum. Quite the reverse. This, from just two weeks ago.

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/12/28/jeremy-corbyn-doesnt-want-second-referendum-brexit-7188067/

    But yes, I'm sure he will now fold to Nigel Farage's greater intellectual position..... *chortle*
    It was the support from Tory voters for UKIP which caused the 2016 referendum. That isnt going to happen this time, so there wont be a second one.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,190

    murali_s said:

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.

    I am reminded of the Winchester by-election in 1997. A 2-vote margin in the general election became a 21,556 vote majority in the by-election.
    Yep. The voters would say "What part of "we are going to Brexit" don't you understand?"

    People seem to forget that as recently as June 2017, 86% voted for parties who said they would implement Brexit.
    It was Nigel Farage's wailing and whinging for ages about the result of the first referendum that caused the second.
    Yes, the Winchester result suggests it would be a walkover, but with a properly organised Remain campaign which could polnt out that yes, things are likely to get harder...... standing in the Non-EU queue to get onto the Canary Islands is demonstrably a distinct possibility, and more young people voting Winchester might turn out to be an abberation.
    86%. For Brexit-implementing parties.

    Seven months ago.

    And not a sniff of Corbyn suggesting he wants a second referendum. Quite the reverse. This, from just two weeks ago.

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/12/28/jeremy-corbyn-doesnt-want-second-referendum-brexit-7188067/

    But yes, I'm sure he will now fold to Nigel Farage's greater intellectual position..... *chortle*
    Don’t think a third referendum is likely, I admit. Just wonder if chickens are being counted, when they are in fact ducks!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,521

    Good afternoon, my fellow Second Punic War enthusiasts.

    I do hope Hannibal was scrupulous about cleaning up the bathroom after using it. Nothing worse than a stray Punic hair in the shower tray.

    Sorry.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 1,935
    dr_spyn said:

    NHS Winter crisis hasn't turned into Corbyn's trump card.

    Bumping along with a 1% polling lead.

    Patience my friend. We all know the Tories are clueless, heartless, incompetent and basically shit*. The lead will increase over time...

    Interestingly the LDs are up two - is this the start of a significant move I wonder?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,094

    Sean_F said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I bet Nick Timothy will advise Mrs May to hold another referendum.

    Perhaps he can add in a policy of taxing people with breast cancer while he’s at it.

    LOL! What would Nick Timothy's ideal manifesto include?

    1. Abolishing charitable status for animal sanctuaries and the RNLI
    2. Halving the State Retirement Pension
    3. Doubling tuition fees
    4. Imposing a charge for cat ownership
    5. Axing child benefit.

    :lol:

    Does anyone believe his article on Justine Greening? How is even still relevant?
    If he was really trying, his Manifesto would include nationalising gardens. And then building prefabs on them. For asylum seekers (no questions asked if from Islamic countries).

    And hanging that garden-promoting enthusiast Alan Titchmarsh from a gibbet. At (formerly) Kew Gardens, now Long-Term Parking, Heathrow Terminal 8.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Looks a bit of a straw man. Is anyone seriously saying that young voters "just want free stuff"?
    I’ve talked to quite a few older voters in my family who think exactly that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292

    Good afternoon, my fellow Second Punic War enthusiasts.

    I think we need a third one, once the outline of the final treaty is known.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,684
    dr_spyn said:

    NHS Winter crisis hasn't turned into Corbyn's trump card.

    Bumping along with a 1% polling lead.

    All that noise and so little, so very little, heat.

    especially with the Night of the Short Straws overkill about the reshuffle.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    murali_s said:

    dr_spyn said:

    NHS Winter crisis hasn't turned into Corbyn's trump card.

    Bumping along with a 1% polling lead.

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/951453388889362432

    Patience my friend. We all know the Tories are clueless, heartless, incompetent and basically shit*. The lead will increase over time...

    Interestingly the LDs are up two - is this the start of a significant move I wonder?
    Pleasant, as always.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,007
    Young people are evil.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,838
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Good afternoon, my fellow Second Punic War enthusiasts.

    I do hope Hannibal was scrupulous about cleaning up the bathroom after using it. Nothing worse than a stray Punic hair in the shower tray.

    Sorry.
    You can pick up your pallium on the way out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,094
    murali_s said:

    dr_spyn said:

    NHS Winter crisis hasn't turned into Corbyn's trump card.

    Bumping along with a 1% polling lead.

    Patience my friend. We all know the Tories are clueless, heartless, incompetent and basically shit*. The lead will increase over time...

    Interestingly the LDs are up two - is this the start of a significant move I wonder?
    LDs only thing that isn't polling white noise. And even then....

    What would be fascinating in 2018 is say Labour slipping 3-4%, with that going to the LibDems. How long before Labour starts thinking "we could really go backards next time...."? And if that doubt were to set in...oh, fun times to be a popcorn retailer.
  • BromBrom Posts: 925
    edited January 11

    I see Aaron Banks has joined Nigel with a call for a second referendum.

    https://order-order.com/2018/01/11/banks-flip-flop-on-second-referendum/

    Leave needs to squash this pair quickly - label them saboteurs , closet remoaners, anything - or else the momentum for a second referendum will become unstoppable.

    How will it become unstoppable? The chances are miniscule since Article 50 was invoked. I admit if it had happened before then we'd be in trouble but it's basically game over for Remain unless they get their recession IMO
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 889

    Totally, utterly off-topic, but yesterday I went to our local Co-op to buy some bits for dinner, and there were two nubile young women, with Battersea Dogs Home tabards standing in the foyer. I made my small purchases and tried to leave when I was accosted by one of them, who, with a very winning smile, asked “Cat? Or Dog?
    ‘Neither' I said. ‘Rabbit!'
    ‘Why'; more than slightly flummoxed.
    ‘Cos you can eat rabbit!’

    Short discussion about how anyone could eat little fluffy bunnies and an explantion from me that I don’t donate to animal charities and I was allowed to leave which much shaking of heads and sadness at how they could have met such a hard-hearted old man!

    Did you ask if they were both vegans?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,190

    murali_s said:

    dr_spyn said:

    NHS Winter crisis hasn't turned into Corbyn's trump card.

    Bumping along with a 1% polling lead.

    Patience my friend. We all know the Tories are clueless, heartless, incompetent and basically shit*. The lead will increase over time...

    Interestingly the LDs are up two - is this the start of a significant move I wonder?
    LDs only thing that isn't polling white noise. And even then....

    What would be fascinating in 2018 is say Labour slipping 3-4%, with that going to the LibDems. How long before Labour starts thinking "we could really go backards next time...."? And if that doubt were to set in...oh, fun times to be a popcorn retailer.
    Can’t sell it in plastic containers though. Does it keep in recyclable cardboard?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,094
    RobD said:

    Good afternoon, my fellow Second Punic War enthusiasts.

    I think we need a third one, once the outline of the final treaty is known.
    We can salt 350 fields a week. I saw it on the side of a chariot.....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,190

    Totally, utterly off-topic, but yesterday I went to our local Co-op to buy some bits for dinner, and there were two nubile young women, with Battersea Dogs Home tabards standing in the foyer. I made my small purchases and tried to leave when I was accosted by one of them, who, with a very winning smile, asked “Cat? Or Dog?
    ‘Neither' I said. ‘Rabbit!'
    ‘Why'; more than slightly flummoxed.
    ‘Cos you can eat rabbit!’

    Short discussion about how anyone could eat little fluffy bunnies and an explantion from me that I don’t donate to animal charities and I was allowed to leave which much shaking of heads and sadness at how they could have met such a hard-hearted old man!

    Did you ask if they were both vegans?
    No, but it’s a thought. Mind I’d be a bit careful about asking a question like that in a fairly noisy area nowadays!
  • dr_spyn said:

    NHS Winter crisis hasn't turned into Corbyn's trump card.

    Bumping along with a 1% polling lead.

    All that noise and so little, so very little, heat.

    especially with the Night of the Short Straws overkill about the reshuffle.
    The fieldwork for this poll was mostly conducted before the reshuffle.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,780

    dr_spyn said:

    NHS Winter crisis hasn't turned into Corbyn's trump card.

    Bumping along with a 1% polling lead.

    All that noise and so little, so very little, heat.

    especially with the Night of the Short Straws overkill about the reshuffle.
    The fieldwork for this poll was mostly conducted before the reshuffle.
    And the reshuffle won't effect it either....the very definition of a westminster village story,
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,322
    Sandpit said:

    Kellyanne Conway must have one of the Western world’s most difficult jobs.

    I imagine she’s also one of very few people who can tell Trump what to do - except to stop Tweeting of course, no-one can make him do that!!
    This is also something of a classic, even for Trumpland:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/11/trump-netherlands-ambassador-pete-hoekstra-journalists-335853
    Asked last month about his “no-go zones” remark, Hoekstra denied having ever made it, calling it “fake news.” Then presented with video of himself making the remarks, Hoekstra denied having used the term “fake news” even though he had just moments earlier....
  • dr_spyn said:

    NHS Winter crisis hasn't turned into Corbyn's trump card.

    Bumping along with a 1% polling lead.

    All that noise and so little, so very little, heat.

    especially with the Night of the Short Straws overkill about the reshuffle.
    The fieldwork for this poll was mostly conducted before the reshuffle.
    But still in the media's blitz on the government over the NHS crisis or perceived crisis
  • dyingswandyingswan Posts: 144
    And while we are at it, please can we have a second referendum in Wales.I suggest the following wording. Do you support the continued decimation of health and education services in Wales by the failed and disastrous experiment of devolution ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,838
    Johnny boy will be STICKING IT TO THE MAN!

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,234
    Paddys go 4/7 Remain 11/8 Leave per their press release, though I can't actually see the price on site.

    https://news.paddypower.com/politics/2018/01/11/uk-odds-vote-remain-second-eu-referendum-nigel-farage-suggestion/
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,322

    Totally, utterly off-topic, but yesterday I went to our local Co-op to buy some bits for dinner, and there were two nubile young women, with Battersea Dogs Home tabards standing in the foyer. I made my small purchases and tried to leave when I was accosted by one of them, who, with a very winning smile, asked “Cat? Or Dog?
    ‘Neither' I said. ‘Rabbit!'
    ‘Why'; more than slightly flummoxed.
    ‘Cos you can eat rabbit!’

    Short discussion about how anyone could eat little fluffy bunnies and an explantion from me that I don’t donate to animal charities and I was allowed to leave which much shaking of heads and sadness at how they could have met such a hard-hearted old man!

    And that's why you shouldn't shop at the Co-Op.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,780

    Johnny boy will be STICKING IT TO THE MAN!

    I'll sure they'll welcome him with open arms.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 503

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Looks a bit of a straw man. Is anyone seriously saying that young voters "just want free stuff"?
    I’ve talked to quite a few older voters in my family who think exactly that.
    They will get free stuff via future inheritances - as long of course as someone else picks up the tab for the social care costs of their parents and grandparents.

    Imagine how long it would take to earn £1m - and potentially pay £400k plus in tax - by working. Yet you can one inherit up to £1m tax free with the new IHT rules. That is the biggest freebie anyone will get - if they have parents or grandparents who own property of course!
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 1,935

    Johnny boy will be STICKING IT TO THE MAN!

    Good on him.

    Normally Davos is just a back-slapping session of the rich, powerful and corrupt.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,094

    Johnny boy will be STICKING IT TO THE MAN!

    I'll sure they'll welcome him with open fire-arms.
    Fixed
  • dyingswan said:

    And while we are at it, please can we have a second referendum in Wales.I suggest the following wording. Do you support the continued decimation of health and education services in Wales by the failed and disastrous experiment of devolution ?

    I would vote a big no but sadly we are saddled with a disastrous labour party that hasn't a clue
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 503

    murali_s said:

    A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.

    I am reminded of the Winchester by-election in 1997. A 2-vote margin in the general election became a 21,556 vote majority in the by-election.
    Yep. The voters would say "What part of "we are going to Brexit" don't you understand?"

    People seem to forget that as recently as June 2017, 86% voted for parties who said they would implement Brexit.
    It was Nigel Farages wailing and whinging for ages about the result of the first referendum that caused the second.
    Yes, the Winchester result suggests it would be a walkover, but with a properly organised Remain campaign which could polnt out that yes, things are likely to get harder...... standing in the Non-EU queue to get onto the Canary Islands is demonstrably a distinct possibility, and more young people voting Winchester might turn out to be an abberation.
    Admittedly Farage waited 20 years after 1975 to call for one - not 20 minutes - and we didn't of course vote to remain in the EU in 1975 as it wasn't created until 1992. The common market was a totally different and small scale enterprise involving 9 economically similar nations.p

    Perhaps we need a new fixed term referendum act - we can only have one referendum on EU membership every 40 years.
This discussion has been closed.