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“How could I have known?” is the cry of palookas at the card tables everywhere. It’s a cry that’s been heard much in political circles in the last few years. In short order, David Cameron won an overall majority in 2015, Leave won the EU referendum in June 2016, Donald Trump won the presidential election in November 2016 and Theresa May lost her overall majority in June last year. None of these events had been expected by the pundits.