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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks on predicting politics better

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630

    HYUFD said:

    The new ComRes poll suggests the BMG poll with Remain 10% ahead in December was not an outlier.

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/12/16/new-brexit-poll-shows-people-back-remain-leave-10-points-7165717/

    Yougov had Leave 9% ahead in December
    That wasn't a second referendum question. It was 'prefer to stay or prefer to leave' question that came after a question about Schulz's USE plan so isn't comparable.
    Yes it is and Schulz's USE plan is increasingly where the Eurozone and Macron especially want to go
  • Some people really need to go to jail for this:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42650193

    Agreed
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    What it shows is that in the long run, about 30% support Euro membership.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 10,070

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.

    Leave could mean WTO/no deal, plain CETA, CETA+, EEA minus, or (as is likely) Theresa's Florence deal with some compromises with the EU.

    I suspect present polling is testing the temperature of negotiations that are "mid-way" and, given the trend, influenced by opinion on Theresa May and her Government post the GE2017 disaster as well.

    What's on offer in any new vote would be so crucial to the campaign, and how public opinion would develop once they started engaging with the issue again, that current polling simply isn't reliable.

    Polling was all over the place in 2015 and 2016, and Leave only decisively moved into the lead in the last 4-5 weeks: I'm very sceptical that the Remain side has learnt any lessons from their defeat in that.
    Plus I doubt the EU would want us back unless it was at least 60%+ Remain otherwise we would be blocking everything again exactly as we did before
    The Ultra-Remainers believing full-fat membership is now an option are just as unrealistic as the tungsten-tipped ultra-Brexiters who believe once that's done, it's done forever.
    A good portion of the opposition to full-fat membership was based on the logic that if we join the Euro, it would make our membership permanent. If we've already tried Brexit and it's failed, it removes that objection and arguably also destroys the logic for being semi-detached.

    People like Boris Johnson who hanker for grand projects will understand that it can only be done by embracing our role within the EU.
    I prefer this hypothesis from twenty years ago:

    As people have experience of using Euro currency on holiday and businesses gain the benefit of easier transactions there will be a massive upsurge in support for adopting the Euro.

    But it will have to be quick otherwise the car factories will shut down, the City will relocate to Frankfurt, house prices will collapse etc.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,742

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,593
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    What it shows is that in the long run, about 30% support Euro membership.
    The mean or median of those datapoints is way less than 30 per cent.

    If William Glenn were interested in the data, then the interquartile range would be a reasonable way to report the spread.

    If he was interested in the data ...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,371
    edited January 11
    murali_s said:
    He will probably have forgotten by tomorrow and claim he is still coming.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 955
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    It would be very sensible if we joined the Euro. And Schengen too.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653

    Some people really need to go to jail for this:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42650193

    Agreed
    Chappell is a crook who looted what was left of BHS after Green had looted the company.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,025

    Some people really need to go to jail for this:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42650193

    Agreed
    This is exactly the sort of case which causes people to lose faith. "Unlimited fine" is simply not acceptable.
    Pension Fund denuded, evidence withheld.
    It is notoriously difficult anyway to prove any white-collar financial crime. Withholding evidence needs to be punishable by serious jail time,
    People are jailed every day for much less egregious behaviour.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,371
    Pensioner incomes to rise above graduate starting salaries for first time

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/11/pensioner-incomes-rise-graduate-starting-salaries-first-time/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,742
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
  • murali_s said:
    Tillerson to come instead. Win - Win all round them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    edited January 11
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    So two thirds do not, a landslide against on any definition.

    How can you manage one global 'cyrptocurrency' for economies as diverse as Nigeria, Brazil, Germany, the USA, South Africa, India, China, Japan etc? The ECB has enough problems trying to manage a currency to accommodate Germany and Greece
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 10,070
    dixiedean said:

    Some people really need to go to jail for this:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42650193

    Agreed
    This is exactly the sort of case which causes people to lose faith. "Unlimited fine" is simply not acceptable.
    Pension Fund denuded, evidence withheld.
    It is notoriously difficult anyway to prove any white-collar financial crime. Withholding evidence needs to be punishable by serious jail time,
    People are jailed every day for much less egregious behaviour.
    ' The offences he has been found guilty of carry unlimited fines for each count.

    The judge has adjourned to a later date, 19 January in Winchester, to consider the financial aspects.

    The highest previous fine in a case such as this was £5,000. '
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,974
    edited January 11
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    I would support joining the Euro in order to make national parliaments less relevant and accelerate a Federal Europe. Brexit has made me realise how insular and lacking in ability and vision our domestic politicians are
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653

    dixiedean said:

    Some people really need to go to jail for this:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42650193

    Agreed
    This is exactly the sort of case which causes people to lose faith. "Unlimited fine" is simply not acceptable.
    Pension Fund denuded, evidence withheld.
    It is notoriously difficult anyway to prove any white-collar financial crime. Withholding evidence needs to be punishable by serious jail time,
    People are jailed every day for much less egregious behaviour.
    ' The offences he has been found guilty of carry unlimited fines for each count.

    The judge has adjourned to a later date, 19 January in Winchester, to consider the financial aspects.

    The highest previous fine in a case such as this was £5,000. '
    My view? Chuck him in with the sex offenders,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630

    Pensioner incomes to rise above graduate starting salaries for first time

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/11/pensioner-incomes-rise-graduate-starting-salaries-first-time/

    Though salaries for graduates under 30 overall will still be higher than pensioner incomes
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    Just a brief visit before bed as I have court tomorrow morning but I have to say that is one of the best thread headers I have read on the site. Just outstanding Alastair.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    I would support joining the Euro in order to make national parliaments less relevant and accelerate a Federal Europe. Brexit has made me realise how insular and lacking in ability and vision our domestic politicians are
    You're so defeatist.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,459
    edited January 11
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    For all the talk of the bad polls of recent years remember in 2015 while no final polls (except for 1 unpublished Survation) predicted Cameron would win a majority, none predicted an Ed Miliband majority either, in the EU referendum the final ICM, TNS and Opinium polls all predicted Leave would win, in 2017 no final polls showed May getting her hoped for landslide of a 100+ seats and Survation predicted a hung Parliament and in the US most polls predicted Hillary would win the Popular vote and she did that, it was the EC they got wrong (though Trafalgar Group predicted Trump would win Michigan and Florida)

    I have to say I admire your knowledge of polling and outcomes
    If we refer back to an excellent website that summarised the polling for the 2 weeks pre referendum, published the day before the vote, the polling was hardly clear cut:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/two-massive-poll-boosts-for-remain-with-voting-starting-in-less-than-nine-hours/

    Tis worth reading the comments below, demonstrating how little most of us were right!

    It looked a coin toss, yet Remain was 1/4. The betting value was Leave, based upon polling.
    Actually, many Leavers and several Remainers made some very astute points. The irrational exuberance of the Brexit Rogerdamuses continues, howeve, to this day. It can be seen each time a new speech/lawsuit/development is announced and the Rogerdamuses show how this means we'll be joining the Euro/Remaining in all but name.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,742
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    So two thirds do not, a landslide against on any definition.

    How can you manage one global 'cyrptocurrency' for economies as diverse as Nigeria, Brazil, Germany, the USA, China, Japan etc? The ECB has enough problems trying to manage a currency to accommodate Germany and Greece
    Sure, 36% is not a majority but it is a very substantial minority.

    I expect a global cryptocurrency to run in parallel to other curriencies as they wither on the vine. Increasingly people are going to want to be paid in a currency that cannot be debased by their own governments. That will include us.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,459
    DavidL said:

    Just a brief visit before bed as I have court tomorrow morning but I have to say that is one of the best thread headers I have read on the site. Just outstanding Alastair.

    +1
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,742
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    For all the talk of the bad polls of recent years remember in 2015 while no final polls (except for 1 unpublished Survation) predicted Cameron would win a majority, none predicted an Ed Miliband majority either, in the EU referendum the final ICM, TNS and Opinium polls all predicted Leave would win, in 2017 no final polls showed May getting her hoped for landslide of a 100+ seats and Survation predicted a hung Parliament and in the US most polls predicted Hillary would win the Popular vote and she did that, it was the EC they got wrong (though Trafalgar Group predicted Trump would win Michigan and Florida)

    I have to say I admire your knowledge of polling and outcomes
    If we refer back to an excellent website that summarised the polling for the 2 weeks pre referendum, published the day before the vote, the polling was hardly clear cut:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/two-massive-poll-boosts-for-remain-with-voting-starting-in-less-than-nine-hours/

    Tis worth reading the comments below, demonstrating how little most of us were right!

    It looked a coin toss, yet Remain was 1/4. The betting value was Leave, based upon polling.
    Actually, almost Leavers and several Remainers made some very astute points. The irrational exuberance of the Rogerdamuses continues, to this day. It can be seen each time a new speech/lawsuit/development is announced and the Rogerdamuses show how this means we'll be joining the Euro/Remaining in all but name.
    Plenty of intelligent comments, as always on PB, but the forecasts made for post Brexit Britain were pretty spectacularly incorrect.

    People did seem to believe the markets rather than the polls in the header.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,459
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    For all the talk of the bad polls of recent years remember in 2015 while no final polls (except for 1 unpublished Survation) predicted Cameron would win a majority, none predicted an Ed Miliband majority either, in the EU referendum the final ICM, TNS and Opinium polls all predicted Leave would win, in 2017 no final polls showed May getting her hoped for landslide of a 100+ seats and Survation predicted a hung Parliament and in the US most polls predicted Hillary would win the Popular vote and she did that, it was the EC they got wrong (though Trafalgar Group predicted Trump would win Michigan and Florida)

    I have to say I admire your knowledge of polling and outcomes
    If we refer back to an excellent website that summarised the polling for the 2 weeks pre referendum, published the day before the vote, the polling was hardly clear cut:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/two-massive-poll-boosts-for-remain-with-voting-starting-in-less-than-nine-hours/

    Tis worth reading the comments below, demonstrating how little most of us were right!

    It looked a coin toss, yet Remain was 1/4. The betting value was Leave, based upon polling.
    Actually, almost Leavers and several Remainers made some very astute points. The irrational exuberance of the Rogerdamuses continues, to this day. It can be seen each time a new speech/lawsuit/development is announced and the Rogerdamuses show how this means we'll be joining the Euro/Remaining in all but name.
    Plenty of intelligent comments, as always on PB, but the forecasts made for post Brexit Britain were pretty spectacularly incorrect.

    People did seem to believe the markets rather than the polls in the header.
    I suggested that 4.2 for a coin toss was fantastic odds. I also predicted a Leave supporting Tory leader would get 40%+ of the vote.

    And on the day itself I got 15s on Leave. 15s!!!

    *buffs nails*
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,974
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    I would support joining the Euro in order to make national parliaments less relevant and accelerate a Federal Europe. Brexit has made me realise how insular and lacking in ability and vision our domestic politicians are
    You're so defeatist.
    You are correct. I voted "Remain" and I was defeated
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,459
    edited January 11
    One of the best dialogues in that thread is surely Sandpit and I predicting Remainers would take legal action if they lost....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,189
    geoffw said:

    You just can't keep a good man down. - Toby Young's rejoinder to the twaterati.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/01/toby-young-once-more-unto-the-breach/

    He didn't know any of them but follows them on Twitter? Shame he deleted 50000 odd posts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    edited January 11
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    So two thirds do not, a landslideand Greece
    Sure, 36% is not a majority but it is a very substantial minority.

    I expect a global cryptocurrency to run in parallel to other curriencies as they wither on the vine. Increasingly people are going to want to be paid in a currency that cannot be debased by their own governments. That will include us.
    A minority will support something whatever asked, clearly if the Euro ever becomes an requirement even the question of the UK returning to the EU becomes redundant.

    If this 'cryptocurrency' runs in parallel with their own currencies then their own currencies will either remain the main tender for purchases rendering it largely irrelevant or the 'cryptocurrency' would be the step towards a global government rendering the EU irrelevant anyway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,742
    Mortimer said:

    One of the best dialogues in that thread is surely Sandpit and I predicting Remainers would take legal action if they lost....

    And Leavers would if they did!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    I would support joining the Euro in order to make national parliaments less relevant and accelerate a Federal Europe. Brexit has made me realise how insular and lacking in ability and vision our domestic politicians are
    Well move to France then
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,189

    Pensioner incomes to rise above graduate starting salaries for first time

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/11/pensioner-incomes-rise-graduate-starting-salaries-first-time/

    A truly absurd turn of events.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,459
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    One of the best dialogues in that thread is surely Sandpit and I predicting Remainers would take legal action if they lost....

    And Leavers would if they did!
    We said it wasn't our style....

    But counterfsctuals can of course never be proven.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    I would support joining the Euro in order to make national parliaments less relevant and accelerate a Federal Europe. Brexit has made me realise how insular and lacking in ability and vision our domestic politicians are
    You're so defeatist.
    You are correct. I voted "Remain" and I was defeated
    You win some, you lose some. I've frequently lost. It's no reason to lose faith in one's country.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,742
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally,
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    So two thirds do not, a landslideand Greece
    Sure, 36% is not a majority but it is a very substantial minority.

    I expect a global cryptocurrency to run in parallel to other curriencies as they wither on the vine. Increasingly people are going to want to be paid in a currency that cannot be debased by their own governments. That will include us.
    A minority will support something whatever asked, clearly if the Euro ever becomes an requirement even the question of the UK returning to the EU becomes redundant.

    If this 'cryptocurrency' runs in parallel with their own currencies then their own currencies will either remain the main tender for purchases rendering it largely irrelevant or the 'cryptocurrency' would be the step towards a global government rendering the EU irrelevant anyway.
    That is the endpoint of globalisation, the Libertarian dream of no borders, and minimal government.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,792

    Scott_P said:
    That is so stupid and arrogant. They need their salaries taking down to Carrie Gracie's now
    The BBC really doesn’t need to pay silly money to these people.
    There will be plenty of talented more junior staff desperate for their jobs. Everyone is replaceable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally,
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    So two thirds do not, a landslideand Greece
    Sure, 36% is not a majority but it is a very substantial minority.

    I expect a global cryptocurrency to run in parallel to other curriencies as they wither on the vine. Increasingly people are going to want to be paid in a currency that cannot be debased by their own governments. That will include us.
    A minority will suppor
    That is the endpoint of globalisation, the Libertarian dream of no borders, and minimal government.
    Why should it be minimal government? If the likes of China and Russia and Iran and Venezuala have a say in it as they inevitably would it could be more intrusive autocratic government.

    'No borders' of course would really just mean mass migration from Africa and the Middle East to Europe, Latin America to the US and Canada and South Asia to the Far East and Australiasia creating huge population pressures and pressure on services in itself
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,788
    Ooh, Dimbleby losing his rag with Piers Morgan.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,056
    “We don’t do a show of hands on Question Time.”

    No David, because if you did, it might inadvertently reveal just how biased the audience is.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally,
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    So two thirds do not, a landslideand Greece
    Sure, 36% is not a majority but it is a very substantial minority.

    I expect a global cryptocurrency to run in parallel to other curriencies as they wither on the vine. Increasingly people are going to want to be paid in a currency that cannot be debased by their own governments. That will include us.
    A minority will support something whatever asked, clearly if the Euro ever becomes an requirement even the question of the UK returning to the EU becomes redundant.

    If this 'cryptocurrency' runs in parallel with their own currencies then their own currencies will either remain the main tender for purchases rendering it largely irrelevant or the 'cryptocurrency' would be the step towards a global government rendering the EU irrelevant anyway.
    That is the endpoint of globalisation, the Libertarian dream of no borders, and minimal government.
    That suggests that Westerners will reject that endpoint, as most people aren't libertarians.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,742
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of
    I would support joining the Euro in order to make national parliaments less relevant and accelerate a Federal Europe. Brexit has made me realise how insular and lacking in ability and vision our domestic politicians are
    You're so defeatist.
    You are correct. I voted "Remain" and I was defeated
    You win some, you lose some. I've frequently lost. It's no reason to lose faith in one's country.
    It is.

    Far more than an Economic issue, Brexit is a cultural one. This applies to both Leavers and Remainers (less so to the unbothered!). Just as Leavers would feel diminished if their country had voted Remain, Remainers do feel diminished by having their European identity amputated against their wishes.

    I believe that Britain is a lesser country for abandoning its participation in its European heritage, so I like it less.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,792
    Mortimer said:

    One of the best dialogues in that thread is surely Sandpit and I predicting Remainers would take legal action if they lost....

    I enjoyed Sean T accepting defeat for Leave and promising vengeance on the traitors from Remain.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,742
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally,
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    So two thirds do not, a landslideand Greece
    Sure, 36% is not a majority but it is a very substantial minority.

    I expect a global cryptocurrency to run in parallel to other curriencies as they wither on the vine. Increasingly people are going to want to be paid in a currency that cannot be debased by their own governments. That will include us.
    A minority will support something whatever asked, clearly if the Euro ever becomes an requirement even the question of the UK returning to the EU becomes redundant.

    If this 'cryptocurrency' runs in parallel with their
    That is the endpoint of globalisation, the Libertarian dream of no borders, and minimal government.
    That suggests that Westerners will reject that endpoint, as most people aren't libertarians.
    I agree, Nationalist reaction in the form of Trumpism, Brexit and LePen is that rejection. How long will it last though? You cant buck the markets or the internet very long.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,371
    edited January 11
    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    That is so stupid and arrogant. They need their salaries taking down to Carrie Gracie's now
    The BBC really doesn’t need to pay silly money to these people.
    There will be plenty of talented more junior staff desperate for their jobs. Everyone is replaceable.
    The whole gender pay gap while real is also exaggerated by the fact that the BBC pays crazy money to some individuals and distracts from the massive pay of some "talent" e.g. Fatty Nolan on £650k a year for doing grave-yard shift on R5....Who the hell thought that was a reasonable salary for him.

    Carrie Gracie was getting £135k a year, she said she never asked for a pay rise in 30 years (seems like a very silly thing to do to me). Sopel gets £250k+ a year. To me £135-150k seems a very good salary for the job they are doing.

    Same with Laura Kuenssberg, if I remember gets about £150k a year. Again, seems like a very good salary.

    But as we know with the Carrie Gracie story, the BBC approach will be to level everybody up, they offered her £40k a year more and she said no that isn't fair Sopel still gets more. So rather than tackling the overpaying of some, everybody gets a pay bump.

    Again, this week Jo Whiley now getting the same as Simon Mayo. While I think both are very good, Whiley gets £150k a year, Mayo gets £350k a year...£150k a year for R2 DJ seems a good gig to me, but I somehow doubt Mayo took a 50% pay cut.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    edited January 11
    First Trump and Obama now Piers Morgan on QT has said he could replace Theresa May as PM according to an ITV poll
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally,
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    So two thirds do not, a landslideand Greece
    Sure, 36% is not a majority butwill include us.
    A minority will support something whatever asked, clearly if the Euro ever becomes an requirement even the question of the UK returning to the EU becomes redundant.

    If this 'cryptocurrency' runs in parallel with their
    That is the endpoint of globalisation, the Libertarian dream of no borders, and minimal government.
    That suggests that Westerners will reject that endpoint, as most people aren't libertarians.
    I agree, Nationalist reaction in the form of Trumpism, Brexit and LePen is that rejection. How long will it last though? You cant buck the markets or the internet very long.
    It was the internet which helped get Trump and Brexit victory in the first place and is driving the likes of Corbyn and Sanders too.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,974
    Foxy said:


    It is.

    Far more than an Economic issue, Brexit is a cultural one. This applies to both Leavers and Remainers (less so to the unbothered!). Just as Leavers would feel diminished if their country had voted Remain, Remainers do feel diminished by having their European identity amputated against their wishes.

    I believe that Britain is a lesser country for abandoning its participation in its European heritage, so I like it less.

    :+1:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU-result-a7096316.html

    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally,
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    So two thirds do not, a landslideand Greece
    Sure, 36% is not a majority but it is a very substantial minority.

    I expect a global cryptocurrency to run in parallel to other curriencies as they wither on the vine. Increasingly people are going to want to be paid in a currency that cannot be debased by their own governments. That will include us.
    A minority will
    That is the endpoint of globalisation, the Libertarian dream of no borders, and minimal government.
    That suggests that Westerners will reject that endpoint, as most people aren't libertarians.
    Libertarians tend to come from the top 10% of earners, are highly educated and socially liberal, they can get by fine with private healthcare, private schools for their kids, expensive security systems etc and have no need for welfare. They therefore have little need for government and like the cheap labour immigration provides and regularly work and travel abroad, globalisation and open borders works fine for them but they are gradually finding out the remaining 90% hit by low wages, automation, weakened and less integrated local communities and underfunded public services are starting to fight back with votes for populists of the nationalist right and socialist left
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of
    I would support joining the Euro in order to make national parliaments less relevant and accelerate a Federal Europe. Brexit has made me realise how insular and lacking in ability and vision our domestic politicians are
    You're so defeatist.
    You are correct. I voted "Remain" and I was defeated
    You win some, you lose some. I've frequently lost. It's no reason to lose faith in one's country.
    It is.

    Far more than an Economic issue, Brexit is a cultural one. This applies to both Leavers and Remainers (less so to the unbothered!). Just as Leavers would feel diminished if their country had voted Remain, Remainers do feel diminished by having their European identity amputated against their wishes.

    I believe that Britain is a lesser country for abandoning its participation in its European heritage, so I like it less.
    There are cultural issues where I've lost. It doesn't undermine my faith in my country.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,524

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    That is so stupid and arrogant. They need their salaries taking down to Carrie Gracie's now
    The BBC really doesn’t need to pay silly money to these people.
    There will be plenty of talented more junior staff desperate for their jobs. Everyone is replaceable.
    The whole gender pay gap while real is also exaggerated by the fact that the BBC pays crazy money to some individuals and distracts from the massive pay of some "talent" e.g. Fatty Nolan on £650k a year for doing grave-yard shift on R5....Who the hell thought that was a reasonable salary for him.

    Carrie Gracie was getting £135k a year, she said she never asked for a pay rise in 30 years (seems like a very silly thing to do to me). Sopel gets £250k+ a year. To me £135-150k seems a very good salary for the job they are doing.

    Same with Laura Kuenssberg, if I remember gets about £150k a year. Again, seems like a very good salary.

    But as we know with the Carrie Gracie story, the BBC approach will be to level everybody up, they offered her £40k a year more and she said no that isn't fair Sopel still gets more. So rather than tackling the overpaying of some, everybody gets a pay bump.

    Again, this week Jo Whiley now getting the same as Simon Mayo. While I think both are very good, Whiley gets £150k a year, Mayo gets £350k a year...£150k a year for R2 DJ seems a good gig to me, but I somehow doubt Mayo took a 50% pay cut.
    Actual figures are:

    Nolan £400k to £450k
    Sopel £200k to £250k
    Laura K £200k to £250k

    http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/aboutthebbc/insidethebbc/reports/pdf/annex_annual_report_201617.pdf
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,792

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    That is so stupid and arrogant. They need their salaries taking down to Carrie Gracie's now
    The BBC really doesn’t need to pay silly money to these people.
    There will be plenty of talented more junior staff desperate for their jobs. Everyone is replaceable.
    The whole gender pay gap while real is also exaggerated by the fact that the BBC pays crazy money to some individuals and distracts from the massive pay of some "talent" e.g. Fatty Nolan on £650k a year for doing grave-yard shift on R5....Who the hell thought that was a reasonable salary for him.

    Carrie Gracie was getting £135k a year, she said she never asked for a pay rise in 30 years (seems like a very silly thing to do to me). Sopel gets £250k+ a year. To me £135-150k seems a very good salary for the job they are doing.

    Same with Laura Kuenssberg, if I remember gets about £150k a year. Again, seems like a very good salary.

    But as we know with the Carrie Gracie story, the BBC approach will be to level everybody up, they offered her £40k a year more and she said no that isn't fair Sopel still gets more. So rather than tackling the overpaying of some, everybody gets a pay bump.

    Again, this week Jo Whiley now getting the same as Simon Mayo. While I think both are very good, Whiley gets £150k a year, Mayo gets £350k a year...£150k a year for R2 DJ seems a good gig to me, but I somehow doubt Mayo took a 50% pay cut.
    Yes I agree entirely.
    I don’t know how easy it is for the BBC to cut salaries but they should at least have a freeze on anything above, say, 200k.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,653
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally,
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    So two thirds do not, a landslideand Greece
    Sure, 36% is not a majority but it is a very substantial minority.

    I expect a global cryptocurrency to run in parallel to other curriencies as they wither on the vine. Increasingly people are going to want to be paid in a currency that cannot be debased by their own governments. That will include us.
    A minority will support something whatever asked, clearly if the Euro ever becomes an requirement even the question of the UK returning to the EU becomes redundant.

    If this 'cryptocurrency' runs in parallel with their
    That is the endpoint of globalisation, the Libertarian dream of no borders, and minimal government.
    That suggests that Westerners will reject that endpoint, as most people aren't libertarians.
    I agree, Nationalist reaction in the form of Trumpism, Brexit and LePen is that rejection. How long will it last though? You cant buck the markets or the internet very long.
    You can, if you decide the price is too high.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,371
    edited January 11
    MikeL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    That is so stupid and arrogant. They need their salaries taking down to Carrie Gracie's now
    The BBC really doesn’t need to pay silly money to these people.
    There will be plenty of talented more junior staff desperate for their jobs. Everyone is replaceable.
    The whole gender pay gap while real is also exaggerated by the fact that the BBC pays crazy money to some individuals and distracts from the massive pay of some "talent" e.g. Fatty Nolan on £650k a year for doing grave-yard shift on R5....Who the hell thought that was a reasonable salary for him.

    Carrie Gracie was getting £135k a year, she said she never asked for a pay rise in 30 years (seems like a very silly thing to do to me). Sopel gets £250k+ a year. To me £135-150k seems a very good salary for the job they are doing.

    Same with Laura Kuenssberg, if I remember gets about £150k a year. Again, seems like a very good salary.

    But as we know with the Carrie Gracie story, the BBC approach will be to level everybody up, they offered her £40k a year more and she said no that isn't fair Sopel still gets more. So rather than tackling the overpaying of some, everybody gets a pay bump.

    Again, this week Jo Whiley now getting the same as Simon Mayo. While I think both are very good, Whiley gets £150k a year, Mayo gets £350k a year...£150k a year for R2 DJ seems a good gig to me, but I somehow doubt Mayo took a 50% pay cut.
    Actual figures are:

    Nolan £400k to £450k
    Sopel £200k to £250k
    Laura K £200k to £250k

    http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/aboutthebbc/insidethebbc/reports/pdf/annex_annual_report_201617.pdf
    My apologises, was remembering off the top of my head. £400-450k a year for Nolan is still bonkers. It is Vine that get £600-650k that I was thinking of.

    Given that Gracie turned down £175k a year as still a long way off Sopel, I think we know it is on the £250k end of the spectrum.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,770

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    You can't ask the question about joining the euro without linking it with the necessity of having interest rates set by the European bank in Frankfurt. The question should be do ypu want to join the euro and do you want interest rates set for euro countries by the European bank?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,742
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    Personally, I am surprised that currently 36% of the country want to join the Euro. Assuming few Leavers want us to do so, that must be near 75% of Remainers. These are not people reconciling themselves to Brexit!

    Personally, within a decade or so, I expect national currencies to be increasingly obselete, in favour of international online currencies. The question then becomes moot.
    The Euro is not just the currency but the Central Bank which sets interest rates too
    Over a third of
    I would support joining the Euro in order to make national parliaments less relevant and accelerate a Federal Europe. Brexit has made me realise how insular and lacking in ability and vision our domestic politicians are
    You're so defeatist.
    You are correct. I voted "Remain" and I was defeated
    You win some, you lose some. I've frequently lost. It's no reason to lose faith in one's country.
    It is.

    I believe that Britain is a lesser country for abandoning its participation in its European heritage, so I like it less.
    There are cultural issues where I've lost. It doesn't undermine my faith in my country.
    That just demonstrates my point. Clearly Pan-Europeanism is more important to me, than whatever cultural issue that you have lost.

    I have decided to cash in my contribution to the country as soon as I can, and live just for myself, my family and my Church Perhaps I was just naive to believe in anything else.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,025
    @HYUFD:

    Libertarians tend to come from the top 10% of earners, are highly educated and socially liberal, they can get by fine with private healthcare, private schools for their kids, expensive security systems etc and have no need for welfare. They therefore have little need for government and like the cheap labour immigration provides and regularly work and travel abroad, globalisation and open borders works fine for them but they are gradually finding out the remaining 90% hit by low wages, automation, weakened and less integrated local communities and underfunded public services are starting to fight back with votes for populists of the nationalist right and socialist left

    @dixiedean:

    Indeed HYUFD. I am very socially liberal, and quite economically so too. My problem is not being in the top 10%.
    I would like to think my moral compass would guide me away from full fat Libertarianism were I ever to find myself there.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,524

    MikeL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    That is so stupid and arrogant. They need their salaries taking down to Carrie Gracie's now
    The BBC really doesn’t need to pay silly money to these people.
    There will be plenty of talented more junior staff desperate for their jobs. Everyone is replaceable.
    The whole gender pay gap while real is also exaggerated by the fact that the BBC pays crazy money to some individuals and distracts from the massive pay of some "talent" e.g. Fatty Nolan on £650k a year for doing grave-yard shift on R5....Who the hell thought that was a reasonable salary for him.

    Carrie Gracie was getting £135k a year, she said she never asked for a pay rise in 30 years (seems like a very silly thing to do to me). Sopel gets £250k+ a year. To me £135-150k seems a very good salary for the job they are doing.

    Same with Laura Kuenssberg, if I remember gets about £150k a year. Again, seems like a very good salary.

    But as we know with the Carrie Gracie story, the BBC approach will be to level everybody up, they offered her £40k a year more and she said no that isn't fair Sopel still gets more. So rather than tackling the overpaying of some, everybody gets a pay bump.

    Again, this week Jo Whiley now getting the same as Simon Mayo. While I think both are very good, Whiley gets £150k a year, Mayo gets £350k a year...£150k a year for R2 DJ seems a good gig to me, but I somehow doubt Mayo took a 50% pay cut.
    Actual figures are:

    Nolan £400k to £450k
    Sopel £200k to £250k
    Laura K £200k to £250k

    http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/aboutthebbc/insidethebbc/reports/pdf/annex_annual_report_201617.pdf
    My apologises, was remembering off the top of my head. £400-450k a year for Nolan is still bonkers. It is Vine that get £600-650k that I was thinking of.

    Given that Gracie turned down £175k a year as still a long way off Sopel, I think we know it is on the £250k end of the spectrum.
    Oh I wasn't disagreeing with the general point you were making - just thought it was worth getting the figures right.

    As for the future I think they will actually have to cut salaries - indeed the number of people earning over £150k has already come down (they previously disclosed numbers prior to actual salaries by name).

    But they'll do it mainly by people retiring and being replaced by new people (more women) on much lower salaries.

    eg Humphreys on £600k will retire and be replaced by someone new on approx £150k to £200k etc.

    Hansen was believed to be on approx £1m; he went to be replaced by Shearer on £400k to £450k (and no other football analyst is on over £150k).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,371
    MikeL said:


    Oh I wasn't disagreeing with the general point you were making - just thought it was worth getting the figures right.

    As for the future I think they will actually have to cut salaries - indeed the number of people earning over £150k has already come down (they previously disclosed numbers prior to actual salaries by name).

    But they'll do it mainly by people retiring and being replaced by new people (more women) on much lower salaries.

    eg Humphreys on £600k will retire and be replaced by someone new on approx £150k to £200k etc.

    Hansen was believed to be on approx £1m; he went to be replaced by Shearer on £400k to £450k (and no other football analyst is on over £150k).

    It going to take a long time, especially if they bump a load of female talent pay in the mean time to match over-inflated salaries of some male talent e.g. the Whiley / Mayo example I gave.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,547

    New ComRes poll in Mirror.
    55% Remain, 45% Leave.
    43% want a second referendum, but 51% do not.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/5-things-weve-learned-mirrors-11837123

    64% of Labour voters want a second referendum. What’s Corbyn going to do?

    Broken sleazy Brexit on the slide.
    As this thread discusses predictions what happened to your prediction that Sturgeon would implement Scottish UDI in 2017 ?
    He was using the Julian calendar...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,778
    MikeL said:

    Hansen was believed to be on approx £1m; he went to be replaced by Shearer on £400k to £450k (and no other football analyst is on over £150k).

    Guessing you're not including Gary Lineker on £1.75 million?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,524
    edited January 12

    MikeL said:


    Oh I wasn't disagreeing with the general point you were making - just thought it was worth getting the figures right.

    As for the future I think they will actually have to cut salaries - indeed the number of people earning over £150k has already come down (they previously disclosed numbers prior to actual salaries by name).

    But they'll do it mainly by people retiring and being replaced by new people (more women) on much lower salaries.

    eg Humphreys on £600k will retire and be replaced by someone new on approx £150k to £200k etc.

    Hansen was believed to be on approx £1m; he went to be replaced by Shearer on £400k to £450k (and no other football analyst is on over £150k).

    It going to take a long time, especially if they bump a load of female talent pay in the mean time to match over-inflated salaries of some male talent e.g. the Whiley / Mayo example I gave.
    We'll see - we don't know details but reports suggest quite a few people have actually taken cuts - eg Humphreys has taken two pay cuts in last few years.

    The other thing is the age profile - I don't have list to hand but after salaries were reported there was a list published with everyone's age - of the entire list of news / current affairs people paid over £150k well over half were over 60 - and many were over 65.

    It's likely there is going to be a big clear out over the next few years and this will help get the bill down a lot.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,547

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    Given how several pollsters got it wrong last time, and the margin of error, I'm surprised they aren't testing polling for alternate Leave/Remain scenarios, rather than "if you had your June 2016 time again now".

    Remain could mean Dave's deal, status quo, status quo but losing UK budget rebate, or a "better" Remain deal with some free movement controls, or full-fat euro membership/schengen with zero opt-outs.
    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.

    You can't ask the question about joining the euro without linking it with the necessity of having interest rates set by the European bank in Frankfurt. The question should be do ypu want to join the euro and do you want interest rates set for euro countries by the European bank?
    (Apropos of nothing: ultimately rates are set by the market. The central bank can influence, but it can't make market participants buy government bonds - or other British assets - at rates they don't want to.)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,371
    edited January 12
    HYUFD said:
    Last year more asylum-seekers in France applied from Albania than anywhere else...

    An efficient asylum system and 99% of those would be on a plane back to Albania in no time, but I bet despite only 6% getting asylum, years later the vast bulk are still there.

    The international asylum system is just so broken.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,974
    Foxy said:


    That just demonstrates my point. Clearly Pan-Europeanism is more important to me, than whatever cultural issue that you have lost.

    I have decided to cash in my contribution to the country as soon as I can, and live just for myself, my family and my Church Perhaps I was just naive to believe in anything else.

    Likewise :+1:

    I have moved sufficient assets offshore and I am now as Brexit-proof as one can be. No matter how things turn out, my family and I will be ok
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    dixiedean said:

    @HYUFD:

    Libertarians tend to come from the top 10% of earners, are highly educated and socially liberal, they can get by fine with private healthcare, private schools for their kids, expensive security systems etc and have no need for welfare. They therefore have little need for government and like the cheap labour immigration provides and regularly work and travel abroad, globalisation and open borders works fine for them but they are gradually finding out the remaining 90% hit by low wages, automation, weakened and less integrated local communities and underfunded public services are starting to fight back with votes for populists of the nationalist right and socialist left

    @dixiedean:

    Indeed HYUFD. I am very socially liberal, and quite economically so too. My problem is not being in the top 10%.
    I would like to think my moral compass would guide me away from full fat Libertarianism were I ever to find myself there.

    I presume you are pretty educated though? It tends to be the case too that the more you earn the more libertarian you become with a few exceptions
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 1,956
    Just cast my three votes for the Labour NEC elections.

    Voted for three moderate candidates - let's see how it goes...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,025
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    @HYUFD:

    Libertarians tend to come from the top 10% of earners, are highly educated and socially liberal, they can get by fine with private healthcare, private schools for their kids, expensive security systems etc and have no need for welfare. They therefore have little need for government and like the cheap labour immigration provides and regularly work and travel abroad, globalisation and open borders works fine for them but they are gradually finding out the remaining 90% hit by low wages, automation, weakened and less integrated local communities and underfunded public services are starting to fight back with votes for populists of the nationalist right and socialist left

    @dixiedean:

    Indeed HYUFD. I am very socially liberal, and quite economically so too. My problem is not being in the top 10%.
    I would like to think my moral compass would guide me away from full fat Libertarianism were I ever to find myself there.

    I presume you are pretty educated though? It tends to be the case too that the more you earn the more libertarian you become with a few exceptions
    Desmond in Politics. From the days when a 2:2 MEANT something!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,688

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres' final EU referendum poll had Remain 8% ahead and Leave won by 4%, it was one of the most inaccurate final pollsters. So given the same error even on this new poll Leave would still win by 2%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

    This is the long range graph of UK support for joining the Euro. Even if you load the dice on the second referendum question, it would still be winnable for Remain.

    image
    The graph is a magnificent achievement in data creativity.

    You have been awarded Hon Membership of the Lib Dems with special responsibilities for bar charts.


    Over a third of the country support that move.

    My vision is that with increasing numbers of electronic transactions, the currency used becomes nearly irrelevant. A cryptocurrency backed by a strong central bank (? China) would drive out the dodgier cryptocurrencies very quickly.
    I would support joining the Euro in order to make national parliaments less relevant and accelerate a Federal Europe. Brexit has made me realise how insular and lacking in ability and vision our domestic politicians are
    Surely the answer is to develop able visionary British politicians.

    Foxy said:


    It is.

    Far more than an Economic issue, Brexit is a cultural one. This applies to both Leavers and Remainers (less so to the unbothered!). Just as Leavers would feel diminished if their country had voted Remain, Remainers do feel diminished by having their European identity amputated against their wishes.

    I believe that Britain is a lesser country for abandoning its participation in its European heritage, so I like it less.

    :+1:
    Only if you think that Britain’s European heritage is limited to its membership of an organisation which has been in existence for 59 years. That is absurd, ahistorical and, if I may say so, rather lacking in vision.

    I was a European before Britain joined the EEC and I will continue to be European after it has left the EU. And I will be British too. My identity is not dependant on some (possibly) temporary political construct.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,819

    rcs1000 said:

    stevef said:

    Back in the 16th century England had its first Brexit -Henry V111's Break with Rome and Catholic Europe because he wanted to marry Anne Boleyn: Hexit. The betting markets believed that Hexit would never happen, that Henry would be overthrown. But they got it wrong. By 1534 England's Hexit was complete, and Anne Boleyn was queen.

    The betting markets were taken completely by surprise in 1536 when Anne Boleyn, the cause of Hexit was suddenly executed.

    Princess Mary and the Remoaners wanted to reverse Hexit, but the betting markets believed that she would never rule England. After all, no woman had ever ruled England. But they got it wrong again. in 1553 Mary not only became queen, but she also reversed Hexit, returning England to Rome and to European Catholic control burning anyone who believed in Hexit.

    The betting markets now announced that Hexit had been defeated and that England would stay in Catholic Europe. Surely they would get it right this time round?

    well, no. Because Mary died, Elizabeth became Queen and Hexit happened all over again -permanently.

    The betting markets are nearly always wrong -nothing changes.

    And, despite a protestant-catholic fissure rumbling on for decades thereafter, in fact almost 200 years, it did England no harm in its long-term success.
    You don't know that.

    If it hadn't been for Henry VIII and the split with Rome, we might that be twice as rich as Switzerland.

    Edit to add: I'm not saying we would or wouldn't be richer than Switzerland. Only that alternatives are all counter factuals, and who knows.
    Well, we can't know anything for certain, but the UK certainly developed a more global and political outlook, away from the religious tangles of continental Europe, built the largest Empire in history, spread its language far and wide, and decisively shaped the world we live in today.

    Not bad. And hard to beat with a Switzerland plus.
    Much of Switzerland split from Rome, too :-)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,189
    tlg86 said:

    “We don’t do a show of hands on Question Time.”

    No David, because if you did, it might inadvertently reveal just how biased the audience is.

    It's also bollocks. I've seen them do show of hands before.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    @HYUFD:

    Libertarians tend to come from the top 10% of earners, are highly educated and socially liberal, they can get by fine with private healthcare, private schools for their kids, expensive security systems etc and have no need for welfare. They therefore have little need for government and like the cheap labour immigration provides and regularly work and travel abroad, globalisation and open borders works fine for them but they are gradually finding out the remaining 90% hit by low wages, automation, weakened and less integrated local communities and underfunded public services are starting to fight back with votes for populists of the nationalist right and socialist left

    @dixiedean:

    Indeed HYUFD. I am very socially liberal, and quite economically so too. My problem is not being in the top 10%.
    I would like to think my moral compass would guide me away from full fat Libertarianism were I ever to find myself there.

    I presume you are pretty educated though? It tends to be the case too that the more you earn the more libertarian you become with a few exceptions
    More than a few exceptions, including some very big ones.....eg Trump
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572
    edited January 12
    dixiedean said:

    @HYUFD:

    Libertarians tend to come from the top 10% of earners, are highly educated and socially liberal, they can get by fine with private healthcare, private schools for their kids, expensive security systems etc and have no need for welfare. They therefore have little need for government and like the cheap labour immigration provides and regularly work and travel abroad, globalisation and open borders works fine for them but they are gradually finding out the remaining 90% hit by low wages, automation, weakened and less integrated local communities and underfunded public services are starting to fight back with votes for populists of the nationalist right and socialist left

    @dixiedean:

    Indeed HYUFD. I am very socially liberal, and quite economically so too. My problem is not being in the top 10%.
    I would like to think my moral compass would guide me away from full fat Libertarianism were I ever to find myself there.

    I don't think you need to be earning all that much to be in the top 10% of earners....£60-70k per year would probably be enough. Judging by all the posts on here where people are bragging about how rich they are, buying new jags, fine dining and vintage champagne etc, I'd hazard a guess that the majority of posters on here are in the top 10%. Which perhaps accounts for PB's much more libertarian slant than the population as a whole. The top 10% in terms of wealth is however a totally different thing.
This discussion has been closed.