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SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited January 17 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Double blow for SNP in new YouGov Scotland poll: support for independence down & more MP losses projected

New Times YouGov Scotland poll suggests SNP could be DOWN 8 to 27 Westminster seats at next GE. At GE2015 Sturgeon's party won 56 of Scotland's 59 seats https://t.co/GbyYxsinuN pic.twitter.com/PDC394lsdl

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Sleazy broken Scottish Nationalism on the slide.
  • Given this polling will Nicola Sturgeon really announce a new indyref this year?

    Does she really want to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead?

    That said it'll annoy some Nats if she doesn't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    Second. Scotland may illustrate very clearly why our voting system is broken.
  • On topic, those Green and UKIP VI shares in the Westminster section might be an irrelevant as I can see neither of them putting up a full slate next time.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    The one upside of Mrs May's unfortunate GE.....she may have (inadvertently) helped save the Union.

    Loved the SNP Paper on 'the disaster awaiting Scotland if we leave the EU Single Market' - curiously silent on the four times more important 'disaster awaiting Scotland if we leave the UK Single Market'....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,511

    The one upside of Mrs May's unfortunate GE.....she may have (inadvertently) helped save the Union.

    Loved the SNP Paper on 'the disaster awaiting Scotland if we leave the EU Single Market' - curiously silent on the four times more important 'disaster awaiting Scotland if we leave the UK Single Market'....

    But surely the UK will be obliged to give them a good deal. All those English pie makers are going to want to carry on selling their products in the Scots market and will put pressure on Mrs May to give in to Scottish demands.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,094
    Of course Labour's vote has also fallen back while the Tories are up in 2 polls and the same in one. You'd never believe it from the headlines.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,190
    If the Scots win the Six Nations the situation may change!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490
    I am mildly relieved that my offer of a bet on Labour taking all of the Glasgow seats was not taken up yesterday.

    The Holyrood system is largely proportional with a modest winners bonus for those that do particularly well in the constituencies. Making any kind of a government out of those figures would be tricky. Would Labour go into coalition with the Nats?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,400
    Little Englanders up early and out in force. Bitter twisted sad losers. The three wise monkeys have spoken and the dumbest multiple times.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Ruth Davidson still highest rated leader:

    Doing Well - net - (vs Oct17)

    Davidson: +15 (-2)
    Sturgeon: 0 (-)
    Corbyn: -3 (-23)
    Leonard: -15 (SLAB, for those who may have blinked - or the 60% 'Don't Know')
    May: -47 (-2)
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,094
    The poll suggests the Tory revival in Scotland is more solid than some on here have suggested.
  • Mind you, the SNP have been in power for nearly 11 years and they still lead their opponents by double digits at Holyrood, in the constituency section at least.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,190
    DavidL said:

    I am mildly relieved that my offer of a bet on Labour taking all of the Glasgow seats was not taken up yesterday.

    The Holyrood system is largely proportional with a modest winners bonus for those that do particularly well in the constituencies. Making any kind of a government out of those figures would be tricky. Would Labour go into coalition with the Nats?

    Lab-Con Unionist Coalition? Mathematiocally possible, perhaps, but ......
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    felix said:

    The poll suggests the Tory revival in Scotland is more solid than some on here have suggested.

    The interesting thing is how Davidson (doing 'well' - 45%) is clearly appreciated well beyond the Tories (±25%) - that's a tad ahead of Sturgeon's 43% 'Well' rating.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490

    On topic, those Green and UKIP VI shares in the Westminster section might be an irrelevant as I can see neither of them putting up a full slate next time.

    True and last time out the Greens stood in very few constituencies to help out their pals in the SNP. Probably saved them a few seats from Labour and 1 from the Tories (North Perthshire). I suspect they will do the same again. For some time now SNP + Green = support for independence and this poll is broadly consistent with that.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,094
    malcolmg said:

    Little Englanders up early and out in force. Bitter twisted sad losers. The three wise monkeys have spoken and the dumbest multiple times.

    You need to thoroughly chew those early morning turnips.....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131
    Important thing to remember. The SNP have underperformed the polling average every election since the Euros.

    The situation is probably worse for the SNP.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490

    DavidL said:

    I am mildly relieved that my offer of a bet on Labour taking all of the Glasgow seats was not taken up yesterday.

    The Holyrood system is largely proportional with a modest winners bonus for those that do particularly well in the constituencies. Making any kind of a government out of those figures would be tricky. Would Labour go into coalition with the Nats?

    Lab-Con Unionist Coalition? Mathematiocally possible, perhaps, but ......
    Not going to happen but it would mean that there would be no chance of forcing a referendum vote through Holyrood. This increases the pressure on Sturgeon to do something whilst it is still possible.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 1,849
    malcolmg said:

    Little Englanders up early and out in force. Bitter twisted sad losers. The three wise monkeys have spoken and the dumbest multiple times.

    It's Scottish Week at Lidl's.Haggis 99p but with proper British swede and British mashed potatoes for anyone who doesn't take to eating "foreign muck".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095
    Are the leaders of the SNP, UKIP, Greens and Plaid all worse than May?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490

    malcolmg said:

    Little Englanders up early and out in force. Bitter twisted sad losers. The three wise monkeys have spoken and the dumbest multiple times.

    It's Scottish Week at Lidl's.Haggis 99p but with proper British swede and British mashed potatoes for anyone who doesn't take to eating "foreign muck".
    99p for a haggis? I think you'd be better sticking with a Macsween haggis. The Simon Howie haggis is also quite good, if a little spicier.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,541
    I seem to recall a lot of Scots Nats getting annoyed with me when I suggested that they were facing a real crisis at the next election. Given that the seat projections won't take into account further tactical voting, which must be likely, the position is potentially worse than the raw figures suggest.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Good morning, everyone.

    Just on a second Scottish referendum: read a story the other day Sturgeon was going to wait until the deal to leave the EU was clearer before deciding whether to push for another one.

    It's crackers to use leaving the EU, with whom Scotland does far less trade [ex-UK} than the UK, as a supposed justification for leaving the UK.

    Also, it is snowing and cold. The dog was delighted.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,711
    Touch unfair. Having won all the seats, the only way was down for the SNP. This decline is relatively gradual. Their biggest challenge is handing over to the next generation. Few parties pull that off.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Mr. Jonathan, on the generational shift, both the Conservatives and Labour *could* have done it. Brown cut off all potential rivals at the knees which didn't help them, and the Conservatives lost Cameron and Osborne before the next generation had time to gain ministerial experience.

    I'm not disputing your main point, just saying that it is possible. If Sturgeon lasts a while she might have a successor ready.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    Would be great if the decline continues, I hope the polls reflect reality here. They did barely squeak home in a few seats already.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,107
    Jonathan said:
    Because he is pro paying more for things than they should cost?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253

    Given this polling will Nicola Sturgeon really announce a new indyref this year?

    Does she really want to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead?

    That said it'll annoy some Nats if she doesn't.

    How would she announce a new indyref, go the Catalan route and do so unilaterally?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    edited January 17
    This is a very bad poll for the SNP. Not only would they only win a minority of Scottish MPs at Westminster but Unionists would win a majority of seats at Holyrood too with the SNP vote significantly down on 2016 at both the constituency level, where it has fallen from 47% to 38% and on the list, where it has fallen from 42% to 32%. There is also no support at all for any new indyref2 either before or after Brexit is completed.

    Corbyn will be encouraged he will pick up some more SNP MPs but given the SNP would back him over the Tories anyway that is less significant
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,365
    I am confused that support for independence has fallen, since I have been led to believe that referendum results are frozen for all time.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,365
    Jonathan said:
    It certainly puts a dent in both parties' previous dogma that the private sector has magical powers.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,780
    Jonathan said:
    What that private firms are making huge profits out of the public sector? Seems the reverse is true...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Mr. L, jein. Carillion was making money on public sector (PFI) deals. It was losing money on the private sector ones.

    Businesses can and do fail, and the taxpayer can't just bail out every failed business. There is, however, a question of how much of state provision should be provided by a single firm.

    So far, the Government's handled this fairly well. I suspect they'll get it in the neck whatever they decide when it comes to throwing money, or not, at SMEs who are owed it by Carillion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:
    Because he is pro paying more for things than they should cost?
    Because chaos makes radical solutions look more credible, particularly, fairly or not, if the government looks helpless or incompetent in letting it happen.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:
    Because he is pro paying more for things than they should cost?
    We had Interserve running serices in my hospital for a while, but the contract had to be ended early because of persistently failing to provide services of the right standard.

    http://www.nationalhealthexecutive.com/Health-Care-News/controversial-leicester-nhs-contract-scrapped-four-years-early

    Not sorry to see them go at all in Leicester.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,838

    I seem to recall a lot of Scots Nats getting annoyed with me when I suggested that they were facing a real crisis at the next election. Given that the seat projections won't take into account further tactical voting, which must be likely, the position is potentially worse than the raw figures suggest.

    'A lot'?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,039
    edited January 17
    kle4 said:

    Given this polling will Nicola Sturgeon really announce a new indyref this year?

    Does she really want to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead?

    That said it'll annoy some Nats if she doesn't.

    How would she announce a new indyref, go the Catalan route and do so unilaterally?
    She might ask Holyrood to approve one.

    Makes it less unilateral.

    I can’t see Mrs May approving a section 30 referendum.
  • kle4 said:

    Would be great if the decline continues, I hope the polls reflect reality here. They did barely squeak home in a few seats already.

    It also confirms that the last thing the SNP wants is a GE anytime soon
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,541

    I seem to recall a lot of Scots Nats getting annoyed with me when I suggested that they were facing a real crisis at the next election. Given that the seat projections won't take into account further tactical voting, which must be likely, the position is potentially worse than the raw figures suggest.

    'A lot'?
    James Kelly and his coterie had some fairly direct things to say on the subject on Scot Goes Pop.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,365
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:
    Because he is pro paying more for things than they should cost?
    That may well happen anyway. File under false economy. And let's face it, if Jeremy Corbyn thinks something is mismanaged then it really is screwed.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,511
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:
    Because he is pro paying more for things than they should cost?
    Not allocating resources purely according to the principles of the market is rather the point of socialism. It's a feature not a bug.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253

    kle4 said:

    Given this polling will Nicola Sturgeon really announce a new indyref this year?

    Does she really want to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead?

    That said it'll annoy some Nats if she doesn't.

    How would she announce a new indyref, go the Catalan route and do so unilaterally?
    She might ask Holyrood to approve one.

    Makes it less unilateral.

    I can’t see Mrs May approving a section 30 referendum.
    I thought the SNP had always been careful to play within the rules, even if they would bemoan some of the rules - so I can see them gettin gHolyood to demand a ref date fo a particular time again, but they surely wouldn’t ‘announce’ a new one, organise it? I mean, asking again and being buffed allows grievances to be stoked after all, without the problematic legalities.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,560
    Morning all :)

    I won't comment on matters Scottish as the usual suspects are repeating their usual tired old boring lines and no one needs to throw petrol on that perfectly good fire.

    As to outsourcing firms in the wake of the Carillion collapse, I had some dealings with this way back in the days of Compulsory Competitive Tendering (CCT) where local authorities at one time had to take the lowest price offered for the package of work being tendered.

    This was insanity on so many levels - the incoming Contractor would be full of promises until they realised the truth of what they had taken on. The move since 2010 has been in-sourcing of many activities. I heard stories of Councils being charged £150 to change a light bulb in a care home or to fix a toilet seat at a day centre. Local authorities don't of course have to operate to a profit margin or satisfy shareholders so the economic argument for outsourcing day to day work fell apart.

    Yes of course you have to involve the private sector on big projects but day-to-day work and especially in softer services such as IT and finance, I don't see the point. I know of Councils who have basically outsourced everything to Northgate or Capita or Atos or whoever and now have to pay the contractor to view their own information as the report needed isn't part of the standard suite of information provided.

    With the coming of Cloud-based systems Councils have been able to take back control and most now insist on the Contractor accessing the Council's data through a Portal or similar.

    The truth is outsourcing does work in some areas some of the time - it's not a panacea and in truth Councils were outmanoeuvred comprehensively in the early days and locked into appalling contracts whish ended up costing much more than had the services continue to be provided in-house.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,838

    I seem to recall a lot of Scots Nats getting annoyed with me when I suggested that they were facing a real crisis at the next election. Given that the seat projections won't take into account further tactical voting, which must be likely, the position is potentially worse than the raw figures suggest.

    'A lot'?
    James Kelly and his coterie had some fairly direct things to say on the subject on Scot Goes Pop.
    Ah, I'd forgotten that many PBers are keen followers of JK.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,190

    Are the leaders of the SNP, UKIP, Greens and Plaid all worse than May?

    Leanne Wood seems better than she’s doing!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,365

    kle4 said:

    Given this polling will Nicola Sturgeon really announce a new indyref this year?

    Does she really want to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead?

    That said it'll annoy some Nats if she doesn't.

    How would she announce a new indyref, go the Catalan route and do so unilaterally?
    She might ask Holyrood to approve one.

    Makes it less unilateral.

    I can’t see Mrs May approving a section 30 referendum.
    Why not? Has something happened to dent Theresa May's faith in huge poll leads?
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Given this polling will Nicola Sturgeon really announce a new indyref this year?

    Does she really want to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead?

    That said it'll annoy some Nats if she doesn't.

    How would she announce a new indyref, go the Catalan route and do so unilaterally?
    She might ask Holyrood to approve one.

    Makes it less unilateral.

    I can’t see Mrs May approving a section 30 referendum.
    I thought the SNP had always been careful to play within the rules, even if they would bemoan some of the rules - so I can see them gettin gHolyood to demand a ref date fo a particular time again, but they surely wouldn’t ‘announce’ a new one, organise it? I mean, asking again and being buffed allows grievances to be stoked after all, without the problematic legalities.
    On a practical basis I don’t think she could hold a unilateral referendum.

    I was speaking to an elections expert and he said it would require every council in Scotland to be SNP controlled, otherwise non SNP controlled councils would just ignore Holyrood/Sturgeon.

    They’d say they’d be breaking the law in partaking in a non legal referendum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,039
    edited January 17

    kle4 said:

    Given this polling will Nicola Sturgeon really announce a new indyref this year?

    Does she really want to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead?

    That said it'll annoy some Nats if she doesn't.

    How would she announce a new indyref, go the Catalan route and do so unilaterally?
    She might ask Holyrood to approve one.

    Makes it less unilateral.

    I can’t see Mrs May approving a section 30 referendum.
    Why not? Has something happened to dent Theresa May's faith in huge poll leads?
    Yes, she’s lost the electoral genius that is Nick Timothy.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,560

    kle4 said:

    Would be great if the decline continues, I hope the polls reflect reality here. They did barely squeak home in a few seats already.

    It also confirms that the last thing the SNP wants is a GE anytime soon
    Do the Conservatives want an election anytime soon ?

    Does anyone ?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:
    Because he is pro paying more for things than they should cost?
    We had Interserve running serices in my hospital for a while, but the contract had to be ended early because of persistently failing to provide services of the right standard.

    http://www.nationalhealthexecutive.com/Health-Care-News/controversial-leicester-nhs-contract-scrapped-four-years-early

    Not sorry to see them go at all in Leicester.
    Interserve are a different kind of company from Carillion in that they tend to provide the services themselves rather than subcontracting them. That's why with smaller turnover they have 80K employees compared to Carillion's 20K. They are not an intermediary to anything like the same extent.

    But running multiple public service contracts efficiently requires a level of management skills and commitment that I think these large companies find really difficult to replicate. They pay a long way from top dollar, they treat their staff poorly, they have high turnover of staff as a result and they deliver poor performance.

    I personally believe that public sector bodies should have a preference for obtaining local services from local companies that are focussed on that particular service so the management has simple and direct tasks to monitor. You will still have failures and there may need to be closer supervision and monitoring of the service (something urgently needed anyway) but I think that there would be better provision of services and less systemic problems than we have at the moment.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,895
    OK: so this poll has the LibDems up marginally on GE 2017, with the SNP down.

    How does that not result in Fife NE (majority 2) becoming a LibDem seat?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131

    kle4 said:

    Given this polling will Nicola Sturgeon really announce a new indyref this year?

    Does she really want to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead?

    That said it'll annoy some Nats if she doesn't.

    How would she announce a new indyref, go the Catalan route and do so unilaterally?
    She might ask Holyrood to approve one.

    Makes it less unilateral.

    I can’t see Mrs May approving a section 30 referendum.
    Holyrood has already passed the bill.
  • Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:
    Because he is pro paying more for things than they should cost?
    Not allocating resources purely according to the principles of the market is rather the point of socialism. It's a feature not a bug.
    The Government is at a watershed moment that could go either way.

    It is to be hoped they take urgent and immediate action to stop directors abuse of their companies with punitive prison sentences for riping off the shareholders and employees and enact legislation that all companies have to settle their accounts within 30 days unconditionally and if they intend disputing the invoice it still has to be paid, pending any review of the charges.

    Furthermore maintaining sub contractors viability in this immediate crisis within reason needs to be considered together with a root and branch review of services that should be in the public sector and those rightly continue in the private sector.

    The problem for labour to sustain the charge that these were profit driven private businesses is they have failed largely by under cutting tenders and the shareholders have worthless shares
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131
    rcs1000 said:

    OK: so this poll has the LibDems up marginally on GE 2017, with the SNP down.

    How does that not result in Fife NE (majority 2) becoming a LibDem seat?

    They were asked and neither of them is changing their mind.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,701
    Will Boris or Rees-Mogg feel compelled to respond to the symbolic gesture of displaying the Bayeux Tapestry here? Brexit was supposed to be Agincourt, Waterloo and Trafalgar, not Hastings.
  • Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Given this polling will Nicola Sturgeon really announce a new indyref this year?

    Does she really want to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead?

    That said it'll annoy some Nats if she doesn't.

    How would she announce a new indyref, go the Catalan route and do so unilaterally?
    She might ask Holyrood to approve one.

    Makes it less unilateral.

    I can’t see Mrs May approving a section 30 referendum.
    Holyrood has already passed the bill.
    But has she specified the date/question/franchise?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,560
    HYUFD said:

    This is a very bad poll for the SNP. Not only would they only win a minority of Scottish MPs at Westminster but Unionists would win a majority of seats at Holyrood too with the SNP vote significantly down on 2016 at both the constituency level, where it has fallen from 47% to 38% and on the list, where it has fallen from 42% to 32%. There is also no support at all for any new indyref2 either before or after Brexit is completed.

    Corbyn will be encouraged he will pick up some more SNP MPs but given the SNP would back him over the Tories anyway that is less significant

    I've never been wholly convinced of that. I thought it entirely feasible there could be a CON-SNP deal after 2015.

    The problem for the Conservatives in those numbers (which do seem a little contradictory) is their net loss of two seats and Labour's net gain of ten. Yesterday's ICM numbers Baxtered (oh come on) put the CON and LAB numbers about equal. I think you could argue that but basically there's no CON-DUP majority any more.

    So you have the SNP on 25-30 seats and the LDs on 15 seats as the two unknown quantities and assuming the 7 or 8 SF MPs still don't turn up that means (according to my crude sums) 321/322 for a majority. LAB (and others) plus SNP probably just crawl over the line. CON+DUP+LDs probably just get over the line as well.

    Plenty to play for and anyone confident in predicting the next GE shouldn't be.

  • stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    Would be great if the decline continues, I hope the polls reflect reality here. They did barely squeak home in a few seats already.

    It also confirms that the last thing the SNP wants is a GE anytime soon
    Do the Conservatives want an election anytime soon ?

    Does anyone ?

    Corbyn seems to think he would walk it but for the rest, no
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490
    rcs1000 said:

    OK: so this poll has the LibDems up marginally on GE 2017, with the SNP down.

    How does that not result in Fife NE (majority 2) becoming a LibDem seat?

    Maybe losing Edinburgh West to Labour?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,642
    Alistair said:

    Important thing to remember. The SNP have underperformed the polling average every election since the Euros.

    The situation is probably worse for the SNP.

    Strange some of us were discussing that just yesterday!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,642
    I have to go out now, but I feel the SNP would struggle to hold 20 seats.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,480
    TGOHF said:
    A plurality for a 'Noel Edmonds' referendum on the terms of our departure. That would be interesting.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,895
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OK: so this poll has the LibDems up marginally on GE 2017, with the SNP down.

    How does that not result in Fife NE (majority 2) becoming a LibDem seat?

    Maybe losing Edinburgh West to Labour?
    Labour is 20 percentage points behind the LibDems there, so that seems unlikely. (See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edinburgh_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency) )

    I can't see Orkney & Shetland being lost. And CS&ER and East Dumbartonshire are straight LD-SNP battles, with the Conservatives some way back in third.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,246

    Will Boris or Rees-Mogg feel compelled to respond to the symbolic gesture of displaying the Bayeux Tapestry here? Brexit was supposed to be Agincourt, Waterloo and Trafalgar, not Hastings.

    Good morning all.

    You're confusing us losing to the Normans as opposed to us thrashing the French. That said, we do tend to over-dwell on our victories. I doubt many people have ever heard of the battle of Castillon.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,895
    Having flicked through the LibDem seats in Scotland, I think every single one has the following order of parties: LD, SNP, Con, Lab.
  • stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is a very bad poll for the SNP. Not only would they only win a minority of Scottish MPs at Westminster but Unionists would win a majority of seats at Holyrood too with the SNP vote significantly down on 2016 at both the constituency level, where it has fallen from 47% to 38% and on the list, where it has fallen from 42% to 32%. There is also no support at all for any new indyref2 either before or after Brexit is completed.

    Corbyn will be encouraged he will pick up some more SNP MPs but given the SNP would back him over the Tories anyway that is less significant

    I've never been wholly convinced of that. I thought it entirely feasible there could be a CON-SNP deal after 2015.

    The problem for the Conservatives in those numbers (which do seem a little contradictory) is their net loss of two seats and Labour's net gain of ten. Yesterday's ICM numbers Baxtered (oh come on) put the CON and LAB numbers about equal. I think you could argue that but basically there's no CON-DUP majority any more.

    So you have the SNP on 25-30 seats and the LDs on 15 seats as the two unknown quantities and assuming the 7 or 8 SF MPs still don't turn up that means (according to my crude sums) 321/322 for a majority. LAB (and others) plus SNP probably just crawl over the line. CON+DUP+LDs probably just get over the line as well.

    Plenty to play for and anyone confident in predicting the next GE shouldn't be.

    I think we would all agree that no one has a clue as to the make up of the next Parliament or when
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,480
    On topic, big gains for Labour by losing a smaller vote share than the SNP. Funny old game.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,560


    The Government is at a watershed moment that could go either way.

    It is to be hoped they take urgent and immediate action to stop directors abuse of their companies with punitive prison sentences for riping off the shareholders and employees and enact legislation that all companies have to settle their accounts within 30 days unconditionally and if they intend disputing the invoice it still has to be paid, pending any review of the charges.

    Furthermore maintaining sub contractors viability in this immediate crisis within reason needs to be considered together with a root and branch review of services that should be in the public sector and those rightly continue in the private sector.

    The problem for labour to sustain the charge that these were profit driven private businesses is they have failed largely by under cutting tenders and the shareholders have worthless shares

    This sounds a "what would the public like us to do and what would keep us popular" type of response. Massive State intervention via legislation into business and questioning the entire basis of outsourcing within the public sector.

    It's the sort of thing Corbyn and McDonnell could support.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,701
    edited January 17
    From Ashcroft's poll:
    image
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,895
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is a very bad poll for the SNP. Not only would they only win a minority of Scottish MPs at Westminster but Unionists would win a majority of seats at Holyrood too with the SNP vote significantly down on 2016 at both the constituency level, where it has fallen from 47% to 38% and on the list, where it has fallen from 42% to 32%. There is also no support at all for any new indyref2 either before or after Brexit is completed.

    Corbyn will be encouraged he will pick up some more SNP MPs but given the SNP would back him over the Tories anyway that is less significant

    I've never been wholly convinced of that. I thought it entirely feasible there could be a CON-SNP deal after 2015.

    The problem for the Conservatives in those numbers (which do seem a little contradictory) is their net loss of two seats and Labour's net gain of ten. Yesterday's ICM numbers Baxtered (oh come on) put the CON and LAB numbers about equal. I think you could argue that but basically there's no CON-DUP majority any more.

    So you have the SNP on 25-30 seats and the LDs on 15 seats as the two unknown quantities and assuming the 7 or 8 SF MPs still don't turn up that means (according to my crude sums) 321/322 for a majority. LAB (and others) plus SNP probably just crawl over the line. CON+DUP+LDs probably just get over the line as well.

    Plenty to play for and anyone confident in predicting the next GE shouldn't be.

    You can't have both CON+DUP+LD and LAB+SNP+Green both getting over the 50% (of sitting MPs) mark.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,895

    On topic, big gains for Labour by losing a smaller vote share than the SNP. Funny old game.

    Those changes are form the last poll, not the GE. That poll has Labour's vote share up on the General Election.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,007

    I seem to recall a lot of Scots Nats getting annoyed with me when I suggested that they were facing a real crisis at the next election. Given that the seat projections won't take into account further tactical voting, which must be likely, the position is potentially worse than the raw figures suggest.

    It must be frustrating to be getting a strong vote share (which the SNP still do) but lose seats as everyone else gangs up on you.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,701
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is a very bad poll for the SNP. Not only would they only win a minority of Scottish MPs at Westminster but Unionists would win a majority of seats at Holyrood too with the SNP vote significantly down on 2016 at both the constituency level, where it has fallen from 47% to 38% and on the list, where it has fallen from 42% to 32%. There is also no support at all for any new indyref2 either before or after Brexit is completed.

    Corbyn will be encouraged he will pick up some more SNP MPs but given the SNP would back him over the Tories anyway that is less significant

    I've never been wholly convinced of that. I thought it entirely feasible there could be a CON-SNP deal after 2015.

    The problem for the Conservatives in those numbers (which do seem a little contradictory) is their net loss of two seats and Labour's net gain of ten. Yesterday's ICM numbers Baxtered (oh come on) put the CON and LAB numbers about equal. I think you could argue that but basically there's no CON-DUP majority any more.

    So you have the SNP on 25-30 seats and the LDs on 15 seats as the two unknown quantities and assuming the 7 or 8 SF MPs still don't turn up that means (according to my crude sums) 321/322 for a majority. LAB (and others) plus SNP probably just crawl over the line. CON+DUP+LDs probably just get over the line as well.

    Plenty to play for and anyone confident in predicting the next GE shouldn't be.

    You can't have both CON+DUP+LD and LAB+SNP+Green both getting over the 50% (of sitting MPs) mark.
    Unless Kate Hoey is double-counted as Labour and DUP?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,521

    Will Boris or Rees-Mogg feel compelled to respond to the symbolic gesture of displaying the Bayeux Tapestry here? Brexit was supposed to be Agincourt, Waterloo and Trafalgar, not Hastings.

    The strong consensus seems to be that it is Anglo Saxon in style and was made in England. Perhaps the take home message is about graciously accepting defeat?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,480
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, big gains for Labour by losing a smaller vote share than the SNP. Funny old game.

    Those changes are form the last poll, not the GE. That poll has Labour's vote share up on the General Election.
    Thanks!
  • stodge said:


    The Government is at a watershed moment that could go either way.

    It is to be hoped they take urgent and immediate action to stop directors abuse of their companies with punitive prison sentences for riping off the shareholders and employees and enact legislation that all companies have to settle their accounts within 30 days unconditionally and if they intend disputing the invoice it still has to be paid, pending any review of the charges.

    Furthermore maintaining sub contractors viability in this immediate crisis within reason needs to be considered together with a root and branch review of services that should be in the public sector and those rightly continue in the private sector.

    The problem for labour to sustain the charge that these were profit driven private businesses is they have failed largely by under cutting tenders and the shareholders have worthless shares

    This sounds a "what would the public like us to do and what would keep us popular" type of response. Massive State intervention via legislation into business and questioning the entire basis of outsourcing within the public sector.

    It's the sort of thing Corbyn and McDonnell could support.
    There are times when events change narratives and this is one.

    Are you saying that directors should be exempt from criminal charges for riping off their Companies and what is wrong with 30 day compulsive payment of invoices
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,007

    stodge said:


    The Government is at a watershed moment that could go either way.

    It is to be hoped they take urgent and immediate action to stop directors abuse of their companies with punitive prison sentences for riping off the shareholders and employees and enact legislation that all companies have to settle their accounts within 30 days unconditionally and if they intend disputing the invoice it still has to be paid, pending any review of the charges.

    Furthermore maintaining sub contractors viability in this immediate crisis within reason needs to be considered together with a root and branch review of services that should be in the public sector and those rightly continue in the private sector.

    The problem for labour to sustain the charge that these were profit driven private businesses is they have failed largely by under cutting tenders and the shareholders have worthless shares

    This sounds a "what would the public like us to do and what would keep us popular" type of response. Massive State intervention via legislation into business and questioning the entire basis of outsourcing within the public sector.

    It's the sort of thing Corbyn and McDonnell could support.
    There are times when events change narratives and this is one.

    Are you saying that directors should be exempt from criminal charges for riping off their Companies and what is wrong with 30 day compulsive payment of invoices
    I would not wish to have to settle my accountant's and counsel's fees in 30 days, while waiting considerably longer for clients to settle their bills.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,287
    The decline in SNP's block in Westminster is in interesting contrast to what happened in Ireland in Edwardian/George V times as Home Rule became major issue. Irish national parties held every seat iirc in the non-ulster counties and sent 70 or more MPs to Westminster. By 1918 of course de Valera was instructing his MPs to not attend Westminster.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,007

    From Ashcroft's poll:
    image

    However, a majority or plurality oppose a second referendum.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,701

    By 1918 of course de Valera was instructing his MPs to not attend Westminster.

    Perhaps that's where the SNP are going wrong?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,701
    Sean_F said:

    From Ashcroft's poll:
    image

    However, a majority or plurality oppose a second referendum.
    If we're looking at the impact on party politics, the salient point is that Remain voters are solidifying in their support for their position, while Leave voters are becoming less sure. That's the opposite of what you'd want to happen if you were pursuing a difficult and divisive policy.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,480
    I've just seen a story about a guard slipping on an icy platform and ending up under the train. The company responsible for gritting the platform: Carillion.
  • Sean_F said:

    stodge said:


    The Government is at a watershed moment that could go either way.

    It is to be hoped they take urgent and immediate action to stop directors abuse of their companies with punitive prison sentences for riping off the shareholders and employees and enact legislation that all companies have to settle their accounts within 30 days unconditionally and if they intend disputing the invoice it still has to be paid, pending any review of the charges.

    Furthermore maintaining sub contractors viability in this immediate crisis within reason needs to be considered together with a root and branch review of services that should be in the public sector and those rightly continue in the private sector.

    The problem for labour to sustain the charge that these were profit driven private businesses is they have failed largely by under cutting tenders and the shareholders have worthless shares

    This sounds a "what would the public like us to do and what would keep us popular" type of response. Massive State intervention via legislation into business and questioning the entire basis of outsourcing within the public sector.

    It's the sort of thing Corbyn and McDonnell could support.
    There are times when events change narratives and this is one.

    Are you saying that directors should be exempt from criminal charges for riping off their Companies and what is wrong with 30 day compulsive payment of invoices
    I would not wish to have to settle my accountant's and counsel's fees in 30 days, while waiting considerably longer for clients to settle their bills.
    I do understand that some professions would need exemption
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 332
    Sean_F said:

    From Ashcroft's poll:
    image

    However, a majority or plurality oppose a second referendum.
    Yeah, polls showed for years that the UK public wanted a referendum on almost every EU treaty and EU membership in general. Did the remainers at the time argue that we should have one? Did they hell.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490
    rcs1000 said:

    Having flicked through the LibDem seats in Scotland, I think every single one has the following order of parties: LD, SNP, Con, Lab.

    Edinburgh West seems the most vulnerable one to me although maybe to the Tories rather than Labour. It probably should be Jo Swinson but I am expecting her to get a boost as leader (even although Farron didn't). I agree it is a little odd their seats don't go up by 1.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,973
    LOL.

    Didn't take long. Our very own Mr Independence RCS moves to California and within a few months he has persuaded most of the state to try to secede from the central government. :)

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/01/16/new-california-declares-independence-california-bid-become-51st-state/1036681001/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,701

    Sean_F said:

    From Ashcroft's poll:
    image

    However, a majority or plurality oppose a second referendum.
    Yeah, polls showed for years that the UK public wanted a referendum on almost every EU treaty and EU membership in general. Did the remainers at the time argue that we should have one? Did they hell.
    Are you referring to voodoo polls such as this, which somehow got covered by the BBC?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7273668.stm
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,007

    Sean_F said:

    From Ashcroft's poll:
    image

    However, a majority or plurality oppose a second referendum.
    If we're looking at the impact on party politics, the salient point is that Remain voters are solidifying in their support for their position, while Leave voters are becoming less sure. That's the opposite of what you'd want to happen if you were pursuing a difficult and divisive policy.
    I think that most Leave supporters were surprised to win, and a lot of them suspect that a way will be found to prevent Brexit from happening. On the other side are some Remain voters who disliked the EU, aren't terribly bothered about Brexit, and think the outcome of the vote should be enacted.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,973

    From Ashcroft's poll:
    image

    Just goes to show how delusional Remain voters are.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is a very bad poll for the SNP. Not only would they only win a minority of Scottish MPs at Westminster but Unionists would win a majority of seats at Holyrood too with the SNP vote significantly down on 2016 at both the constituency level, where it has fallen from 47% to 38% and on the list, where it has fallen from 42% to 32%. There is also no support at all for any new indyref2 either before or after Brexit is completed.

    Corbyn will be encouraged he will pick up some more SNP MPs but given the SNP would back him over the Tories anyway that is less significant

    I've never been wholly convinced of that. I thought it entirely feasible there could be a CON-SNP deal after 2015.

    The problem for the Conservatives in those numbers (which do seem a little contradictory) is their net loss of two seats and Labour's net gain of ten. Yesterday's ICM numbers Baxtered (oh come on) put the CON and LAB numbers about equal. I think you could argue that but basically there's no CON-DUP majority any more.

    So you have the SNP on 25-30 seats and the LDs on 15 seats as the two unknown quantities and assuming the 7 or 8 SF MPs still don't turn up that means (according to my crude sums) 321/322 for a majority. LAB (and others) plus SNP probably just crawl over the line. CON+DUP+LDs probably just get over the line as well.

    Plenty to play for and anyone confident in predicting the next GE shouldn't be.

    Sturgeon has always made clear the SNP would vote for a Labour PM over keeping the Tories in power so whether a seat has an SNP or Labour MP makes little difference to the Tories chances of staying in power and a Labour MP is at least likely to be a unionist unlike an SNP MP
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,190
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Having flicked through the LibDem seats in Scotland, I think every single one has the following order of parties: LD, SNP, Con, Lab.

    Edinburgh West seems the most vulnerable one to me although maybe to the Tories rather than Labour. It probably should be Jo Swinson but I am expecting her to get a boost as leader (even although Farron didn't). I agree it is a little odd their seats don't go up by 1.
    NE Fife? LD behind SNP by 2
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,355

    stodge said:


    The Government is at a watershed moment that could go either way.

    It is to be hoped they take urgent and immediate action to stop directors abuse of their companies with punitive prison sentences for riping off the shareholders and employees and enact legislation that all companies have to settle their accounts within 30 days unconditionally and if they intend disputing the invoice it still has to be paid, pending any review of the charges.

    Furthermore maintaining sub contractors viability in this immediate crisis within reason needs to be considered together with a root and branch review of services that should be in the public sector and those rightly continue in the private sector.

    The problem for labour to sustain the charge that these were profit driven private businesses is they have failed largely by under cutting tenders and the shareholders have worthless shares

    This sounds a "what would the public like us to do and what would keep us popular" type of response. Massive State intervention via legislation into business and questioning the entire basis of outsourcing within the public sector.

    It's the sort of thing Corbyn and McDonnell could support.
    There are times when events change narratives and this is one.

    Are you saying that directors should be exempt from criminal charges for riping off their Companies and what is wrong with 30 day compulsive payment of invoices
    How many payment runs do you want companies to do a month ?!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,190
    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:


    The Government is at a watershed moment that could go either way.

    It is to be hoped they take urgent and immediate action to stop directors abuse of their companies with punitive prison sentences for riping off the shareholders and employees and enact legislation that all companies have to settle their accounts within 30 days unconditionally and if they intend disputing the invoice it still has to be paid, pending any review of the charges.

    Furthermore maintaining sub contractors viability in this immediate crisis within reason needs to be considered together with a root and branch review of services that should be in the public sector and those rightly continue in the private sector.

    The problem for labour to sustain the charge that these were profit driven private businesses is they have failed largely by under cutting tenders and the shareholders have worthless shares

    This sounds a "what would the public like us to do and what would keep us popular" type of response. Massive State intervention via legislation into business and questioning the entire basis of outsourcing within the public sector.

    It's the sort of thing Corbyn and McDonnell could support.
    There are times when events change narratives and this is one.

    Are you saying that directors should be exempt from criminal charges for riping off their Companies and what is wrong with 30 day compulsive payment of invoices
    How many payment runs do you want companies to do a month ?!
    Guardian are suggesting Carillion will pay just about 1p in the £. That will mean ruin for many smaller firms who have them as their main ‘customer'.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,355
    edited January 17

    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:


    The Government is at a watershed moment that could go either way.

    It is to be hoped they take urgent and immediate action to stop directors abuse of their companies with punitive prison sentences for riping off the shareholders and employees and enact legislation that all companies have to settle their accounts within 30 days unconditionally and if they intend disputing the invoice it still has to be paid, pending any review of the charges.

    Furthermore maintaining sub contractors viability in this immediate crisis within reason needs to be considered together with a root and branch review of services that should be in the public sector and those rightly continue in the private sector.

    The problem for labour to sustain the charge that these were profit driven private businesses is they have failed largely by under cutting tenders and the shareholders have worthless shares

    This sounds a "what would the public like us to do and what would keep us popular" type of response. Massive State intervention via legislation into business and questioning the entire basis of outsourcing within the public sector.

    It's the sort of thing Corbyn and McDonnell could support.
    There are times when events change narratives and this is one.

    Are you saying that directors should be exempt from criminal charges for riping off their Companies and what is wrong with 30 day compulsive payment of invoices
    How many payment runs do you want companies to do a month ?!
    Guardian are suggesting Carillion will pay just about 1p in the £. That will mean ruin for many smaller firms who have them as their main ‘customer'.
    Well yes that tends to happen when companies go into liquidation. The issue I have was with compulsory 30 day payments. We pay 30 day, end of month. Strict 30 days would be an administrative nightmare.
This discussion has been closed.