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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Vote blue go green? Farage,

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited January 18 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Vote blue go green? Farage, Boris & 2nd referendums (again) plus Labour NEC election fallout

On this week’s podcast, Keiran and Leo continue with the new format of the show where each guest chooses a news story that has interested them from the past week and provides some polling analysis on a key issue of the day. Topics discussed this week include:

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,397
    edited January 18
    "Vote blue, go green" - by no means. Just the usual ploy from the Tory Party pretending to be what they are not, in order to hide the unpleasant reality.

    Carillion demonstrates clearly enough what the Conservatives are all about.

    And first!!!!!!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    SEcond! Like Corbyn & Remain.....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369
    Does it count if you have not listened to the podcast before posting?

    Looking at newspaper headlines finally questioning PFI, the scale of recent defence cuts and the plight of ex-servicemen, it is like several years of pb postings flashing before my eyes.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-42727174
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    PClipp said:

    "Vote blue, go green" - by no means. Just the usual ploy from the Tory Party pretending to be what they are not, in order to hide the unpleasant reality.

    Best for environment:

    Corbyn: 29
    May: 25

    Not quite a Labour slam-dunk, is it?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Interesting comment in the podcast on the ComRes poll that got the Remainers excited - because it didn't weight by the 2016 referendum vote it is possible the sample was Remain voter skewed, given the other demographic skew to ABC1 (70%).......
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719

    Interesting comment in the podcast on the ComRes poll that got the Remainers excited - because it didn't weight by the 2016 referendum vote it is possible the sample was Remain voter skewed, given the other demographic skew to ABC1 (70%).......

    However it backs up the 55%/45% BMG poll which was weighted by 2016 referendum vote...

    http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Interesting comment in the podcast on the ComRes poll that got the Remainers excited - because it didn't weight by the 2016 referendum vote it is possible the sample was Remain voter skewed, given the other demographic skew to ABC1 (70%).......

    However it backs up the 55%/45% BMG poll which was weighted by 2016 referendum vote...

    http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/
    However, readers should also be aware that when we dig a little deeper into the data, it reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 Referendum. Around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters say they are still unchanged in their view on whether to leave or remain.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719

    Interesting comment in the podcast on the ComRes poll that got the Remainers excited - because it didn't weight by the 2016 referendum vote it is possible the sample was Remain voter skewed, given the other demographic skew to ABC1 (70%).......

    However it backs up the 55%/45% BMG poll which was weighted by 2016 referendum vote...

    http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/
    However, readers should also be aware that when we dig a little deeper into the data, it reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 Referendum. Around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters say they are still unchanged in their view on whether to leave or remain.
    Differential turnout favours the motivated Remainers over the demoralised Brexiteers so we should probably add an enthusiasm bonus to the Remain scores.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Interesting comment in the podcast on the ComRes poll that got the Remainers excited - because it didn't weight by the 2016 referendum vote it is possible the sample was Remain voter skewed, given the other demographic skew to ABC1 (70%).......

    However it backs up the 55%/45% BMG poll which was weighted by 2016 referendum vote...

    http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/
    However, readers should also be aware that when we dig a little deeper into the data, it reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 Referendum. Around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters say they are still unchanged in their view on whether to leave or remain.
    Differential turnout favours the motivated Remainers over the demoralised Brexiteers so we should probably add an enthusiasm bonus to the Remain scores.
    Confirmation bias...much?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369

    Interesting comment in the podcast on the ComRes poll that got the Remainers excited - because it didn't weight by the 2016 referendum vote it is possible the sample was Remain voter skewed, given the other demographic skew to ABC1 (70%).......

    However it backs up the 55%/45% BMG poll which was weighted by 2016 referendum vote...

    http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/
    However, readers should also be aware that when we dig a little deeper into the data, it reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 Referendum. Around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters say they are still unchanged in their view on whether to leave or remain.
    Two important points are raised here. First is that if there is a second referendum then pollsters may underestimate Remain if they are too willing to discount previous non-voters (which would be to repeat their error of GE2017, so we shall need to read the small print before placing our bets).

    Second is the pyrrhic victory of Cameron and Osborne's gerrymandering -- by which is meant purging the electoral rolls for GE2015. As well as losing Labour voters (one of its intended results, the other being its corollary of reducing Labour constituencies) it dropped Remainers.

    Too late to rescue their own political careers, the then government launched its own desperate pre-referendum registration drive (which later cost Theresa May her majority). You may remember Ukip's protests, especially when the deadline was extended. The net result is there are more Remain-inclined people registered to vote next time in any Noel Edmonds referendum.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369
    OT it looks like the Guardian has hidden boxing again.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652

    Interesting comment in the podcast on the ComRes poll that got the Remainers excited - because it didn't weight by the 2016 referendum vote it is possible the sample was Remain voter skewed, given the other demographic skew to ABC1 (70%).......

    However it backs up the 55%/45% BMG poll which was weighted by 2016 referendum vote...

    http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/
    However, readers should also be aware that when we dig a little deeper into the data, it reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 Referendum. Around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters say they are still unchanged in their view on whether to leave or remain.

    The 2017 GE pattern repeating itself.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    I know it is not about Brexit but the quote about short term effects being overestimated and long term underestimated wrt technology springs to mind
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975

    OT it looks like the Guardian has hidden boxing again.

    Do you think they are struggling with their conscience about it??
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872

    Interesting comment in the podcast on the ComRes poll that got the Remainers excited - because it didn't weight by the 2016 referendum vote it is possible the sample was Remain voter skewed, given the other demographic skew to ABC1 (70%).......

    However it backs up the 55%/45% BMG poll which was weighted by 2016 referendum vote...

    http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/
    However, readers should also be aware that when we dig a little deeper into the data, it reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 Referendum. Around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters say they are still unchanged in their view on whether to leave or remain.
    Differential turnout favours the motivated Remainers over the demoralised Brexiteers so we should probably add an enthusiasm bonus to the Remain scores.
    Confirmation bias...much?
    Well, yeah. You're talking to a zealot.

    I doubt even the Pope could preach Catholicism as fervently as William preaches European union.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,879
    The NAO media and politicians have only taken 20 years to work out that it might be a poor use of funds by Brown and Osborne.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    Your reminder of those attack lines:

    News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.

    News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    dr_spyn said:

    The NAO media and politicians have only taken 20 years to work out that it might be a poor use of funds by Brown and Osborne.

    Heaven has a place for a sinner who repents.

    Maybe we will now start to see how PFI and outsourcing have hollowed out our state infrastructure.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    Your reminder of those attack lines:

    News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.

    News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.

    The negotiations this year will be about finding words and structures that avoid the government’s complete humiliation internationally and its disintegration at home. Beyond the symbols and a bit of window dressing on freedom of movement and the ECJ, nothing much will change. The swivel-eyed still move among us, but they have lost. I suspect they won’t get over it.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    The NAO media and politicians have only taken 20 years to work out that it might be a poor use of funds by Brown and Osborne.

    Heaven has a place for a sinner who repents.

    Maybe we will now start to see how PFI and outsourcing have hollowed out our state infrastructure.
    In what way has the State infrastructure been "hollowed out". Where there is PFI for a school or a hospital, for example, that school or hospital will become a State asset at the end of the contract period. PFI allowed Brown in particular to lie about how much he was borrowing and spending by putting the future obligations off balance sheet. It added to our vulnerability in the great crash (because our deficit in a boom was even greater than it appeared) but it did produce more schools and hospitals that will belong to the State in due course.

    The question is whether the State got value for money for those S&Hs. I think the picture there is mixed. In some cases, including many of Carillion's contracts, the answer is yes. In other cases the somewhat naïve and inexperienced Civil Service were undoubtedly ripped off by QSs who had been playing this game in the construction industry their entire lives and could spot a chargeable variation when it was a glimmer in their customer's eye.

    For me, the lessons are:
    If the government is to do PFI contracts it should not be just to hide borrowing and making the deficit look better. Debt off the books is ultimately more expensive than direct government borrowing.
    The government needs expertise and discipline in negotiating and conducting PFI contracts. Paying for that is a good investment.
    Service contracts, not really PFI at all but often related, can be good VFM for the State provided they deal with businesses focussed on and providing that service, not intermediaries who subcontract all the work like Carillion.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652
    Blimey - can this really be true? Toby Young is paid a salary of £90,000 a year by the Schools Network - a charity largely funded by the government.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/solomonhughes/toby-young-has-lost-another-job-in-education
  • Paddy Power had a market on the size of Trump's todger, we might soon have a winner.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    Your reminder of those attack lines:

    News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.

    News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.

    The negotiations this year will be about finding words and structures that avoid the government’s complete humiliation internationally and its disintegration at home. Beyond the symbols and a bit of window dressing on freedom of movement and the ECJ, nothing much will change. The swivel-eyed still move among us, but they have lost. I suspect they won’t get over it.

    Lol. Good attempt at trying to mash the two.

    Keep it up!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    Your reminder of those attack lines:

    News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.

    News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.
    You’d have thought continuity Remainers would have got over the embarrassment of the daily fallling away of more and more of Project Fear..
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369
    TOPPING said:

    OT it looks like the Guardian has hidden boxing again.

    Do you think they are struggling with their conscience about it??
    tbh I suspect it just got lost in the redesign. There is not enough space to list every sport and for some reason they chose not to have a menu for the rest. Boxing is there but you have to scroll right down until you reach other sports:
    Boxing
    Athletics
    Olympic Games 2020
    Motor sport
    Australia sports
    Sailing
    Snooker
    Darts
    Disability sport
    Chess
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Paddy Power had a market on the size of Trump's todger, we might soon have a winner.

    I loved the Tweet about porn stars paying Trump to keep quiet on former dalliances.....of course the harm this will do with his base is precisely....zero.....
  • Paddy Power had a market on the size of Trump's todger, we might soon have a winner.

    I loved the Tweet about porn stars paying Trump to keep quiet on former dalliances.....of course the harm this will do with his base is precisely....zero.....
    Melania might not be too chuffed.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    Your reminder of those attack lines:

    News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.

    News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.

    The negotiations this year will be about finding words and structures that avoid the government’s complete humiliation internationally and its disintegration at home. Beyond the symbols and a bit of window dressing on freedom of movement and the ECJ, nothing much will change. The swivel-eyed still move among us, but they have lost. I suspect they won’t get over it.

    Lol. Good attempt at trying to mash the two.

    Keep it up!

    The die is cast, my friend. A year ago, the Daily Mail put Theresa May on the White Cliffs of Dover giving the EU the choice of a deal on the UK’s terms or No Deal at all, with them handing money to us. The swivel-eyed rejoiced. Today, with May utterly diminished and waiting for the EU to allow her to agree a deal that seals a symbolic Brexit which changes almost nothing, we know that isn’t going to happen. What’s not to like?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    The Tories' problem on the environment was always the ties to big business, and Labour's to the unions. Neither the employer nor employee interest has environmental concerns high on its agenda; indeed often their vested interest runs contrary to the green agenda. The Tories' opportunity for repositioning arises from Brexit and the distancing of the big businesses constituency.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172

    Paddy Power had a market on the size of Trump's todger, we might soon have a winner.

    I loved the Tweet about porn stars paying Trump to keep quiet on former dalliances.....of course the harm this will do with his base is precisely....zero.....
    Melania might not be too chuffed.
    Are you kidding? She knew exactly what she was signing up for and I don't imagine that an expectation of fidelity was part of the deal.

    I think the real news is that DT barebacked that pornstar.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Paddy Power had a market on the size of Trump's todger, we might soon have a winner.

    I loved the Tweet about porn stars paying Trump to keep quiet on former dalliances.....of course the harm this will do with his base is precisely....zero.....
    Melania might not be too chuffed.
    Are you kidding? She knew exactly what she was signing up for and I don't imagine that an expectation of fidelity was part of the deal.

    I think the real news is that DT barebacked that pornstar.
    Nah.

    Porn stars receive regular STD checks (every 30 days or so)

    Ironically they are very clean.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,304
    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    Paddy Power had a market on the size of Trump's todger, we might soon have a winner.

    I loved the Tweet about porn stars paying Trump to keep quiet on former dalliances.....of course the harm this will do with his base is precisely....zero.....
    ... the religious right being notoriously understanding about such matters, of course.

    I think you might be ignoring the effect of such things at the margin, where most elections are decided. No one expects his true believers to desert him.

    Things really not looking good for the Republicans in the midterms (contd.)...
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/17/republicans-mueller-midterms-russia-probe-341592?lo=ap_b1
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    Dura_Ace said:

    Paddy Power had a market on the size of Trump's todger, we might soon have a winner.

    I loved the Tweet about porn stars paying Trump to keep quiet on former dalliances.....of course the harm this will do with his base is precisely....zero.....
    Melania might not be too chuffed.
    Are you kidding? She knew exactly what she was signing up for and I don't imagine that an expectation of fidelity was part of the deal.

    I think the real news is that DT barebacked that pornstar.
    TMI ?

  • Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    Jared O’Mara and he should swap notes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    Supported, I think.

    But yes, not one of May's finer choices.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    A throwaway remark he made years ago when he was 21? Give over.

    If all the crap I said at university were made public, I doubt I'd have any job.

    Cut him a break.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    I recall that there were a lot of people who were seriously unimpressed by the Met standing by whilst rioters were clearing out shops. Manchester Police were more robust (in general, there were exceptions) and got a lot of praise for it. To describe comments about that failure by the Met to do its job as "supporting police brutality" is just silly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    A throwaway remark he made years ago when he was 21? Give over.

    If all the crap I said at university were made public, I doubt I'd have any job.

    Cut him a break.
    Don't see why you should.
    Surely it's a basic test of competence for a politician to delete such obviously embarrassing tweets etc *before* they appear on the front pages ?

    If you were a senior party official, the same would apply to you.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    Your reminder of those attack lines:

    News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.

    News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.

    The negotiations this year will be about finding words and structures that avoid the government’s complete humiliation internationally and its disintegration at home. Beyond the symbols and a bit of window dressing on freedom of movement and the ECJ, nothing much will change. The swivel-eyed still move among us, but they have lost. I suspect they won’t get over it.

    Lol. Good attempt at trying to mash the two.

    Keep it up!

    The die is cast, my friend. A year ago, the Daily Mail put Theresa May on the White Cliffs of Dover giving the EU the choice of a deal on the UK’s terms or No Deal at all, with them handing money to us. The swivel-eyed rejoiced. Today, with May utterly diminished and waiting for the EU to allow her to agree a deal that seals a symbolic Brexit which changes almost nothing, we know that isn’t going to happen. What’s not to like?

    Both caricatures are wrong.

    I really wouldn't cite political rhetoric or newspaper headlines as your evidence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    DavidL said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    I recall that there were a lot of people who were seriously unimpressed by the Met standing by whilst rioters were clearing out shops. Manchester Police were more robust (in general, there were exceptions) and got a lot of praise for it. To describe comments about that failure by the Met to do its job as "supporting police brutality" is just silly.
    How else ought one to interpret "police brutality should be encouraged" ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    He could have looked a bigger prat.

    He could have said he supported the LibDems.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,335

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    Jared O’Mara and he should swap notes.
    And include John McDonnell in their tete-a-tete. He has views on the use of violence against opponents.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    I recall that there were a lot of people who were seriously unimpressed by the Met standing by whilst rioters were clearing out shops. Manchester Police were more robust (in general, there were exceptions) and got a lot of praise for it. To describe comments about that failure by the Met to do its job as "supporting police brutality" is just silly.
    How else ought one to interpret "police brutality should be encouraged" ?
    I have said how. The Met in particular were being encouraged to take on the rioters instead of watching them. That involved using riot shields, batons, horses and an intimidating level of force. Eventually the criticism of them grew so great that they did and the rioting stopped.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    I recall that there were a lot of people who were seriously unimpressed by the Met standing by whilst rioters were clearing out shops. Manchester Police were more robust (in general, there were exceptions) and got a lot of praise for it. To describe comments about that failure by the Met to do its job as "supporting police brutality" is just silly.
    How else ought one to interpret "police brutality should be encouraged" ?
    I have said how. The Met in particular were being encouraged to take on the rioters instead of watching them. That involved using riot shields, batons, horses and an intimidating level of force. Eventually the criticism of them grew so great that they did and the rioting stopped.
    So as something else than police brutality, then.
    A stupid choice of words, not unforgivable for a 21 year old, but pretending it's not embarrassing is just silly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    I recall that there were a lot of people who were seriously unimpressed by the Met standing by whilst rioters were clearing out shops. Manchester Police were more robust (in general, there were exceptions) and got a lot of praise for it. To describe comments about that failure by the Met to do its job as "supporting police brutality" is just silly.
    How else ought one to interpret "police brutality should be encouraged" ?
    I have said how. The Met in particular were being encouraged to take on the rioters instead of watching them. That involved using riot shields, batons, horses and an intimidating level of force. Eventually the criticism of them grew so great that they did and the rioting stopped.
    Perspective time. When it comes to encouraging police brutality, Labour Home Secretary David Blunkett was in a league of his own:

    "David Blunkett told the head of the Prison Service to call in the Army and "machine-gun" rioting inmates to regain control of a jail in 2002, reports say.

    Martin Narey, then director general, said the then home secretary told him he did not care about possible deaths during bids to retake Lincoln prison."

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6057528.stm



  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Nigelb said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    A throwaway remark he made years ago when he was 21? Give over.

    If all the crap I said at university were made public, I doubt I'd have any job.

    Cut him a break.
    Don't see why you should.
    Surely it's a basic test of competence for a politician to delete such obviously embarrassing tweets etc *before* they appear on the front pages ?

    If you were a senior party official, the same would apply to you.

    Way too many people have entered public life having failed to cleanse their history of posting stuff on the internet. This type of story is only going to become more common as more children of the 1990s who have never known life without the internet become politicians.

    David Cameron’s quip about Twitter will be taught in politics lectures long after Twitter has ceased to be.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Nigelb said:

    Paddy Power had a market on the size of Trump's todger, we might soon have a winner.

    I loved the Tweet about porn stars paying Trump to keep quiet on former dalliances.....of course the harm this will do with his base is precisely....zero.....
    ... the religious right being notoriously understanding about such matters, of course.

    I think you might be ignoring the effect of such things at the margin, where most elections are decided. No one expects his true believers to desert him.

    Things really not looking good for the Republicans in the midterms (contd.)...
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/17/republicans-mueller-midterms-russia-probe-341592?lo=ap_b1
    The religious right are probably quietly relieved it’s a girl, not a boy, as is so often the case when they “strayed but are now seeking forgiveness”.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    I recall that there were a lot of people who were seriously unimpressed by the Met standing by whilst rioters were clearing out shops. Manchester Police were more robust (in general, there were exceptions) and got a lot of praise for it. To describe comments about that failure by the Met to do its job as "supporting police brutality" is just silly.
    How else ought one to interpret "police brutality should be encouraged" ?
    I'd be looking at a pattern of contemporary behaviour before having a concern over it.

    I'd give the benefit of the doubt for a few throwaway remarks made as a student, years before he decided to enter public service.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    A throwaway remark he made years ago when he was 21? Give over.

    If all the crap I said at university were made public, I doubt I'd have any job.

    Cut him a break.
    Don't see why you should.
    Surely it's a basic test of competence for a politician to delete such obviously embarrassing tweets etc *before* they appear on the front pages ?

    If you were a senior party official, the same would apply to you.

    Way too many people have entered public life having failed to cleanse their history of posting stuff on the internet. This type of story is only going to become more common as more children of the 1990s who have never known life without the internet become politicians.

    David Cameron’s quip about Twitter will be taught in politics lectures long after Twitter has ceased to be.
    Of course it's also a basic test of competence in those who supposedly vetted such appointees.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    I recall that there were a lot of people who were seriously unimpressed by the Met standing by whilst rioters were clearing out shops. Manchester Police were more robust (in general, there were exceptions) and got a lot of praise for it. To describe comments about that failure by the Met to do its job as "supporting police brutality" is just silly.
    How else ought one to interpret "police brutality should be encouraged" ?
    I have said how. The Met in particular were being encouraged to take on the rioters instead of watching them. That involved using riot shields, batons, horses and an intimidating level of force. Eventually the criticism of them grew so great that they did and the rioting stopped.
    Rioters deserve the rough end of a police officer's boot or truncheon.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517
    I seem to remember it was when Margeret Thatcher started to look ridiculous that she began to look vulnerable.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,523
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    The NAO media and politicians have only taken 20 years to work out that it might be a poor use of funds by Brown and Osborne.

    Heaven has a place for a sinner who repents.

    Maybe we will now start to see how PFI and outsourcing have hollowed out our state infrastructure.
    In what way has the State infrastructure been "hollowed out". Where there is PFI for a school or a hospital, for example, that school or hospital will become a State asset at the end of the contract period. PFI allowed Brown in particular to lie about how much he was borrowing and spending by putting the future obligations off balance sheet. It added to our vulnerability in the great crash (because our deficit in a boom was even greater than it appeared) but it did produce more schools and hospitals that will belong to the State in due course.

    The question is whether the State got value for money for those S&Hs. I think the picture there is mixed. In some cases, including many of Carillion's contracts, the answer is yes. In other cases the somewhat naïve and inexperienced Civil Service were undoubtedly ripped off by QSs who had been playing this game in the construction industry their entire lives and could spot a chargeable variation when it was a glimmer in their customer's eye.

    For me, the lessons are:
    If the government is to do PFI contracts it should not be just to hide borrowing and making the deficit look better. Debt off the books is ultimately more expensive than direct government borrowing.
    The government needs expertise and discipline in negotiating and conducting PFI contracts. Paying for that is a good investment.
    Service contracts, not really PFI at all but often related, can be good VFM for the State provided they deal with businesses focussed on and providing that service, not intermediaries who subcontract all the work like Carillion.
    Absolutely agree with you on the lessons learnt.
    Too much focus on deficit and debt can lead to other stupid decisions like selling off student loans at a knock down price. IMO ONS should redefine these numbers to reduce the temptation for accounting tricks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Good morning, everyone.

    When the Grieve amendment's vote (a meaningful vote on the deal) occurs, I do wonder how much of a push there'll be to make it deal or referendum 2, rather than deal or no deal.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,780
    Nigelb said:
    probably becuase they're cheaper...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    Your reminder of those attack lines:

    News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.

    News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.

    The negotiations this year will be about finding words and structures that avoid the government’s complete humiliation internationally and its disintegration at home. Beyond the symbols and a bit of window dressing on freedom of movement and the ECJ, nothing much will change. The swivel-eyed still move among us, but they have lost. I suspect they won’t get over it.

    Lol. Good attempt at trying to mash the two.

    Keep it up!

    The die is cast, my friend. A year ago, the Daily Mail put Theresa May on the White Cliffs of Dover giving the EU the choice of a deal on the UK’s terms or No Deal at all, with them handing money to us. The swivel-eyed rejoiced. Today, with May utterly diminished and waiting for the EU to allow her to agree a deal that seals a symbolic Brexit which changes almost nothing, we know that isn’t going to happen. What’s not to like?

    We are still ultimately ending free movement and leaving the single market and customs union just as she promised then, the fact of the 2 year transition period and exit bill payment does not change that
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    A throwaway remark he made years ago when he was 21? Give over.

    If all the crap I said at university were made public, I doubt I'd have any job.

    Cut him a break.
    Don't see why you should.
    Surely it's a basic test of competence for a politician to delete such obviously embarrassing tweets etc *before* they appear on the front pages ?

    If you were a senior party official, the same would apply to you.

    Way too many people have entered public life having failed to cleanse their history of posting stuff on the internet. This type of story is only going to become more common as more children of the 1990s who have never known life without the internet become politicians.

    David Cameron’s quip about Twitter will be taught in politics lectures long after Twitter has ceased to be.
    Of course it's also a basic test of competence in those who supposedly vetted such appointees.
    Yes, I’m amazed that political parties don’t appear to employ people whose job it is to go through past internet postings of people *before* it’s announced they are standing for office or appointed to a new post.

    Also, a lot of comments that might have seemed innocent at the time might look a lot worse out of context years later. Back in 2011 people were saying a lot worse than this guy about the Met standing by and letting rioters and looters have the freedom of parts of London.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517

    Good morning, everyone.

    When the Grieve amendment's vote (a meaningful vote on the deal) occurs, I do wonder how much of a push there'll be to make it deal or referendum 2, rather than deal or no deal.

    That's a good question. Or it is at the moment. If support for leave continues to fall then it will be referendum 2 for sure. If things stay as they are I expect it will be watered down to a token vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    Stupid comment by him but I can't imagine many Tory voters in Mansfield who he needs to re elect him take a liberal, Guardian approach to crime
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652
    HYUFD said:

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    Your reminder of those attack lines:

    News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.

    News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.

    The negotiations they won’t get over it.

    Lol. Good attempt at trying to mash the two.

    Keep it up!

    The die is cast, my friend. A year ago, the Daily Mail put Theresa May on the White Cliffs of Dover giving the EU the choice of a deal on the UK’s terms or No Deal at all, with them handing money to us. The swivel-eyed rejoiced. Today, with May utterly diminished and waiting for the EU to allow her to agree a deal that seals a symbolic Brexit which changes almost nothing, we know that isn’t going to happen. What’s not to like?

    We are still ultimately ending free movement and leaving the single market and customs union just as she promised then, the fact of the 2 year transition period and exit bill payment does not change that

    Of course! As I said, the next year is all about finding a deal that allows the government to avoid international humiliation and domestic disintegration. There will be symbolic gestures on FoM, the ECJ, the Single Market and Customs Union as part of this. But in practical terms nothing much will change.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652
    edited January 18

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    Your reminder of those attack lines:

    News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.

    News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.

    The negotiations this year will be about finding words and structures that avoid the government’s complete humiliation internationally and its disintegration at home. Beyond the symbols and a bit of window dressing on freedom of movement and the ECJ, nothing much will change. The swivel-eyed still move among us, but they have lost. I suspect they won’t get over it.

    Lol. Good attempt at trying to mash the two.

    Keep it up!

    The die is cast, my friend. A year ago, the Daily Mail put Theresa May on the White Cliffs of Dover giving the EU the choice of a deal on the UK’s terms or No Deal at all, with them handing money to us. The swivel-eyed rejoiced. Today, with May utterly diminished and waiting for the EU to allow her to agree a deal that seals a symbolic Brexit which changes almost nothing, we know that isn’t going to happen. What’s not to like?

    Both caricatures are wrong.

    I really wouldn't cite political rhetoric or newspaper headlines as your evidence.

    Hmm - don’t cite what people say as evidence of what they mean. Really?

    The bloke who wrote the Mail story a year ago now works for Mrs May.

  • Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    Your reminder of those attack lines:

    News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.

    News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.

    The negotiations this year will be about finding words and structures that avoid the government’s complete humiliation internationally and its disintegration at home. Beyond the symbols and a bit of window dressing on freedom of movement and the ECJ, nothing much will change. The swivel-eyed still move among us, but they have lost. I suspect they won’t get over it.

    Lol. Good attempt at trying to mash the two.

    Keep it up!

    The die is cast, my friend. A year ago, the Daily Mail put Theresa May on the White Cliffs of Dover giving the EU the choice of a deal on the UK’s terms or No Deal at all, with them handing money to us. The swivel-eyed rejoiced. Today, with May utterly diminished and waiting for the EU to allow her to agree a deal that seals a symbolic Brexit which changes almost nothing, we know that isn’t going to happen. What’s not to like?

    Yet we were also told that by now the car factories would have closed, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt and UK house and share prices would be in free-fall.

    With Juncker dictating terms to a UK begging to remain in the EU.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    The NAO media and politicians have only taken 20 years to work out that it might be a poor use of funds by Brown and Osborne.

    Heaven has a place for a sinner who repents.

    Maybe we will now start to see how PFI and outsourcing have hollowed out our state infrastructure.
    In what way has the State infrastructure been "hollowed out". Where there is PFI for a school or a hospital, for example, that school or hospital will become a State asset at the end of the contract period. PFI allowed Brown in particular to lie about how much he was borrowing and spending by putting the future obligations off balance sheet. It added to our vulnerability in the great crash (because our deficit in a boom was even greater than it appeared) but it did produce more schools and hospitals that will belong to the State in due course.....
    While that's true, bear in mind that many of these multi-decade deals are inflexible, and lock (for example) local authorities into schools contracts irrespective of whether a particular school remains viable. (I know of at least one such school locally which might well have been closed but for the PFI deal under which it was constructed a decade ago.)
    This isn't an argument against PFI per se, but poorly negotiated, inflexible contracts can be extremely expensive for those on the wrong end of them (us, the taxpayers).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    The People are bored and have lost interest; they think that today looks like, indeed is Brexit. The government realises that it must work hard to ensure that the People are right.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Nigelb said:
    The really interesting thing in that story is that the ‘actress’ gave a long interview about the affair - which was never published - some years before she signed the NDA with Trump and took his cash. If it does end up published Trump could be in trouble with the religious types who supported him. Oh, and with his wife of course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    HYUFD said:

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    Your reminder of those attack lines:

    News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.

    News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.

    The negotiations they won’t get over it.

    Lol. Good attempt at trying to mash the two.

    Keep it up!

    The die is cast, my friend. A year ago, the Daily Mail put Theresa May on the White Cliffs of Dover giving the EU the choice of a deal on the UK’s terms or No Deal

    We are still ultimately ending free movement and leaving the single market and customs union just as she promised then, the fact of the 2 year transition period and exit bill payment does not change that

    Of course! As I said, the next year is all about finding a deal that allows the government to avoid international humiliation and domestic disintegration. There will be symbolic gestures on FoM, the ECJ, the Single Market and Customs Union as part of this. But in practical terms nothing much will change.

    Ending FoM was the key reason Leave got over 50% and we will no longer be members of either the EU, the Single Market or the Customs Union after he transition, whatever the deal agreed with the EU. That is still pretty significant
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,845
    I see those who died in a ditch for Toby have miraculously come back to life.
  • Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    A throwaway remark he made years ago when he was 21? Give over.

    If all the crap I said at university were made public, I doubt I'd have any job.

    Cut him a break.
    Don't see why you should.
    Surely it's a basic test of competence for a politician to delete such obviously embarrassing tweets etc *before* they appear on the front pages ?

    If you were a senior party official, the same would apply to you.

    Way too many people have entered public life having failed to cleanse their history of posting stuff on the internet. This type of story is only going to become more common as more children of the 1990s who have never known life without the internet become politicians.

    David Cameron’s quip about Twitter will be taught in politics lectures long after Twitter has ceased to be.
    Of course it's also a basic test of competence in those who supposedly vetted such appointees.
    Yes, I’m amazed that political parties don’t appear to employ people whose job it is to go through past internet postings of people *before* it’s announced they are standing for office or appointed to a new post.

    Also, a lot of comments that might have seemed innocent at the time might look a lot worse out of context years later. Back in 2011 people were saying a lot worse than this guy about the Met standing by and letting rioters and looters have the freedom of parts of London.
    I'm amazed that political parties encourage their MPs to go on twatter to begin with.

    Has anyone ever decided to vote for a politician because of a tweet ?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,272

    HYUFD said:

    Deutsche Bank plans to move hundreds of staff out of London as a result of Brexit rather than the thousands first feared, a senior executive has said.

    It is the latest global lender to roll back on suggestions of an exodus from the City caused by Britain's departure from the European Union.

    Deutsche previously said it was considering shifting up to 4,000 staff from London to Frankfurt.

    The bank's British boss John Cryan said last July that it was preparing for a Brexit outcome that would be "worse than people can imagine".

    But on Wednesday, Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche's capital market division in Germany, told reporters: "Not thousands will move from London, but rather hundreds."


    https://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-says-hundreds-rather-than-thousands-of-staff-will-move-after-brexit-11211300

    As it becomes clear Brexit is going to be little more than symbolic, there’ll be more of this.

    Your reminder of those attack lines:

    News of practical progress on a deal or upbeat economics: soft, fluffy, symbolic, pointless.

    News of problems with negotiating Brexit or uncertain economics: i-told-you-so, foaming, swivel-eyed, zealot led Tory Brexit that will do irreparable harm to us all. Woe. Woe. Woe.

    The negotiations they won’t get over it.

    Lol. Good attempt at trying to mash the two.

    Keep it up!

    The die is cast, my friend. A year ago, the Daily Mail put Theresa May on the White Cliffs of Dover giving the EU the choice of a deal on the UK’s terms or No Deal at all, with them handing money to us. The swivel-eyed rejoiced. Today, with May utterly diminished and waiting for the EU to allow her to agree a deal that seals a symbolic Brexit which changes almost nothing, we know that isn’t going to happen. What’s not to like?

    We are still ultimately ending free movement and leaving the single market and customs union just as she promised then, the fact of the 2 year transition period and exit bill payment does not change that

    Of course! As I said, the next year is all about finding a deal that allows the government to avoid international humiliation and domestic disintegration. There will be symbolic gestures on FoM, the ECJ, the Single Market and Customs Union as part of this. But in practical terms nothing much will change.

    Good morning all.

    If you're right, I'll be delighted.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    A throwaway remark he made years ago when he was 21? Give over.

    If all the crap I said at university were made public, I doubt I'd have any job.

    Cut him a break.
    Don't see why you should.
    Surely it's a basic test of competence for a politician to delete such obviously embarrassing tweets etc *before* they appear on the front pages ?

    If you were a senior party official, the same would apply to you.

    Way too many people have entered public life having failed to cleanse their history of posting stuff on the internet. This type of story is only going to become more common as more children of the 1990s who have never known life without the internet become politicians.

    David Cameron’s quip about Twitter will be taught in politics lectures long after Twitter has ceased to be.
    Of course it's also a basic test of competence in those who supposedly vetted such appointees.
    Yes, I’m amazed that political parties don’t appear to employ people whose job it is to go through past internet postings of people *before* it’s announced they are standing for office or appointed to a new post.

    Also, a lot of comments that might have seemed innocent at the time might look a lot worse out of context years later. Back in 2011 people were saying a lot worse than this guy about the Met standing by and letting rioters and looters have the freedom of parts of London.
    I'm amazed that political parties encourage their MPs to go on twatter to begin with.

    Has anyone ever decided to vote for a politician because of a tweet ?
    Avoid it like the plague.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172
    DavidL said:



    In what way has the State infrastructure been "hollowed out".

    Almost all military aviation training, right up the point of operational conversion, is now provided by private companies. The goverment still owns the airframes but no longer has the capacity to maintain them or deliver the training without the operating companies. That's hollowed out.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    Nigelb said:
    probably becuase they're cheaper...
    Real cheap:
    Legal blog UpCounsel puts the cost of the H-1B process at $10,000 to $11,000 per employee....

    These tend to be people with masters degrees.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404
    Isn’t Ben Bradley the guy who is supposed to change the Tories fortune with young voters? These stories just serve to reinforce a negative image of the Conservative party. It’s just after the saga with Toby Young, as well...,
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:
    The really interesting thing in that story is that the ‘actress’ gave a long interview about the affair - which was never published - some years before she signed the NDA with Trump and took his cash. If it does end up published Trump could be in trouble with the religious types who supported him. Oh, and with his wife of course.
    If it were legal, I'm sure Trump would have married Ivanka.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    A throwaway remark he made years ago when he was 21? Give over.

    If all the crap I said at university were made public, I doubt I'd have any job.

    Cut him a break.
    Don't see why you should.
    Surely it's a basic test of competence for a politician to delete such obviously embarrassing tweets etc *before* they appear on the front pages ?

    If you were a senior party official, the same would apply to you.

    Way too many people have entered public life having failed to cleanse their history of posting stuff on the internet. This type of story is only going to become more common as more children of the 1990s who have never known life without the internet become politicians.

    David Cameron’s quip about Twitter will be taught in politics lectures long after Twitter has ceased to be.
    Of course it's also a basic test of competence in those who supposedly vetted such appointees.
    Yes, I’m amazed that political parties don’t appear to employ people whose job it is to go through past internet postings of people *before* it’s announced they are standing for office or appointed to a new post.

    Also, a lot of comments that might have seemed innocent at the time might look a lot worse out of context years later. Back in 2011 people were saying a lot worse than this guy about the Met standing by and letting rioters and looters have the freedom of parts of London.
    I'm amazed that political parties encourage their MPs to go on twatter to begin with.

    Has anyone ever decided to vote for a politician because of a tweet ?
    Good point. Most politicians appear to use it as a device for opening their mouth purely in order to insert their foot.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,845
    edited January 18

    Paddy Power had a market on the size of Trump's todger, we might soon have a winner.

    I loved the Tweet about porn stars paying Trump to keep quiet on former dalliances.....of course the harm this will do with his base is precisely....zero.....
    Melania might not be too chuffed.
    Otoh possbly massively grateful that a sister was taking one for the team.
  • Paddy Power had a market on the size of Trump's todger, we might soon have a winner.

    I loved the Tweet about porn stars paying Trump to keep quiet on former dalliances.....of course the harm this will do with his base is precisely....zero.....
    Melania might not be too chuffed.
    Otoh possbly massively grateful that a sister was taking one for the team.
    True, there’s a touch of making love to Nick Soames about the Don.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404

    I see those who died in a ditch for Toby have miraculously come back to life.

    Agreed. I’m glad I’m not especially party political these days - it seems to involved bending over backwards to literally defend anything. It’s just not worth it.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,707

    Isn’t Ben Bradley the guy who is supposed to change the Tories fortune with young voters? These stories just serve to reinforce a negative image of the Conservative party. It’s just after the saga with Toby Young, as well...,

    Tory Youth Tsar , sounds a bit ominous.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369

    Isn’t Ben Bradley the guy who is supposed to change the Tories fortune with young voters? These stories just serve to reinforce a negative image of the Conservative party. It’s just after the saga with Toby Young, as well...,

    Given it is The Times which unearthed this quote about police brutality, what is the kremlinology here? Does the Times have a reporter with a clue or is another minister briefing against Bradley?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    probably becuase they're cheaper...
    Real cheap:
    Legal blog UpCounsel puts the cost of the H-1B process at $10,000 to $11,000 per employee....

    These tend to be people with masters degrees.
    Silicon Valley love H1-B visas, as it lets them pay Indians $40k a year to live in California, where an American won’t work for less than $100k. It’s also sponsored employment, so they get to work 70 hours a week and get deported if they’re fired. Most of them have ‘degrees’ paid for by some very dodgy Indian ‘Universities’

    There’s a big campaign in SV to raise the minimum salary for H1-B visas to $100k, so they’re used to employed genuinely talented people rather than undercutting Americans’ wages.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,014
    Interesting global survey of attitudes:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/18/us-leadership-world-confidence-poll

    Domestically, it suggests that Boris's attack on Corbyn for not being enamoured of the US alliance is not going to resonate. Corbyn is lucky that some of his classic themes - criticism of US policy, opposition to PFI, scepticism about British foreign intervention - are now commonplace, even among people who thought them deplorable 10-20 years ago.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,568
    Poor Leaver-stan. They've been labelled by Meeks as Xenophobes and Carrot Munchers.

    And they now have to contend with a visit from Andrew Adonis in his "Humility and Understanding Tour"

    https://tinyurl.com/ybtqlpxn

    "In the coming months, I will be touring Brexit strongholds around the country, not to convince but to listen and learn".

    Presumably along the lines, "There, there, I understand, little dears, you were misled by the media. It's best to leave matters like this to the grown-ups."

    There are many good things to chuckle over in the article from the architect of tuitions fees, but my favourite is:

    " I admit our collective failure to understand the plight of those in this country who didn’t go to university and get well-paid jobs, and whose children are faced with declining living standards. '

    It is amazing how the very personal failure of Adonis in the matter of tuition fees has now become a "collective failure".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    Paddy Power had a market on the size of Trump's todger, we might soon have a winner.

    I loved the Tweet about porn stars paying Trump to keep quiet on former dalliances.....of course the harm this will do with his base is precisely....zero.....
    Melania might not be too chuffed.
    Otoh possbly massively grateful that a sister was taking one for the team.
    True, there’s a touch of making love to Nick Soames about the Don.
    Trump on Soames... too early in the morning for that image.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404
    edited January 18

    Isn’t Ben Bradley the guy who is supposed to change the Tories fortune with young voters? These stories just serve to reinforce a negative image of the Conservative party. It’s just after the saga with Toby Young, as well...,

    Given it is The Times which unearthed this quote about police brutality, what is the kremlinology here? Does the Times have a reporter with a clue or is another minister briefing against Bradley?
    If the other stories about Bradley have come from The Times as well, it could well be that. Or, given that these comments are from a blog it could essentially just be the media doing some digging into his online history.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,568
    Isn't the most extraordinary thing that the romantic dinner was in the National Liberal Club ?

    First, the National Liberal Club has the romantic charm of a large lavatory.

    And second, that Bolton is even a member of the National Liberal Club.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404

    Isn't the most extraordinary thing that the romantic dinner was in the National Liberal Club ?

    First, the National Liberal Club has the romantic charm of a large lavatory.

    And second, that Bolton is even a member of the National Liberal Club.
    Apparently he was a Lib Dem before joining UKIP.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    This is interesting. The slide behind Barnier's head implies the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement will contain no reference to any trade deal or long term relationship, not even in outline. According to the timetable the Withdrawal Agreement will be agreed in October this year after negotiations complete on phase 1 items - including payments, citizen rights and Irish arrangements - and on the "transition" arrangements. The Withdrawal Agreement will be ratified between October this year and March 2019. During the same period a "political statement" on the future relationship will be agreed. The actual negotiations take place entirely after we leave the EU.

    I suggest the "political statement" won't be much more than an intention to have a future relationship. We would also need to wrap up the actual negotiations during the "transition" period if we are to avoid the shifted cliff edge.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Good to read that the new CON party vice-chair supports police brutality

    I recall that there were a lot of people who were seriously unimpressed by the Met standing by whilst rioters were clearing out shops. Manchester Police were more robust (in general, there were exceptions) and got a lot of praise for it. To describe comments about that failure by the Met to do its job as "supporting police brutality" is just silly.
    How else ought one to interpret "police brutality should be encouraged" ?
    I have said how. The Met in particular were being encouraged to take on the rioters instead of watching them. That involved using riot shields, batons, horses and an intimidating level of force. Eventually the criticism of them grew so great that they did and the rioting stopped.
    Rioters deserve the rough end of a police officer's boot or truncheon.
    I trust you are not planning to stand for public office anytime soon.

    Seriously, this sort of complete nonsense going through tweets from years ago and seeking to take them out of context is one of the major reasons no one sane would want to stand for political position anymore.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    edited January 18
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    probably becuase they're cheaper...
    Real cheap:
    Legal blog UpCounsel puts the cost of the H-1B process at $10,000 to $11,000 per employee....

    These tend to be people with masters degrees.
    Silicon Valley love H1-B visas, as it lets them pay Indians $40k a year to live in California, where an American won’t work for less than $100k. It’s also sponsored employment, so they get to work 70 hours a week and get deported if they’re fired. Most of them have ‘degrees’ paid for by some very dodgy Indian ‘Universities’

    There’s a big campaign in SV to raise the minimum salary for H1-B visas to $100k, so they’re used to employed genuinely talented people rather than undercutting Americans’ wages.
    Isn't the current minimum $60k, not 40 ?
    https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-minimum-salary-to-be-paid-to-a-H1B-visa-holder
This discussion has been closed.