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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP: circling the plughole

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited January 20 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP: circling the plughole

Revolutions devouring their own creators is hardly a novelty but UKIP are giving a fascinating new take on an old theme. They were never the most disciplined of parties and perhaps that was, for some, part of their attraction. Even so, since their crowning glory with their success in the referendum, they’ve not been so much undisciplined but ungovernable.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,508
    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    SECOND! Like Remain, Corbyn & Yes.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    On topic. While Mr Herdson is right that we see in Europe plenty of evidence of strongly right-wing parties making progress, apart from the UKIP/EU period there is no such tradition in the UK - on either the left or right. Both Labour & the Tories have managed to corral 'broad churches' which has meant the extremes have been inhabited by outright racists such as the BNP, or communists & Socialist Workers (sic). Of course where Momentum's entry into the Labour party leaves us, only time will tell - but (absent periods of delusion) both Labour & the Tories have generally recognised its more important to govern than to enjoy the intellectual purity of opposition.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,365
    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404

    On topic. While Mr Herdson is right that we see in Europe plenty of evidence of strongly right-wing parties making progress, apart from the UKIP/EU period there is no such tradition in the UK - on either the left or right. Both Labour & the Tories have managed to corral 'broad churches' which has meant the extremes have been inhabited by outright racists such as the BNP, or communists & Socialist Workers (sic). Of course where Momentum's entry into the Labour party leaves us, only time will tell - but (absent periods of delusion) both Labour & the Tories have generally recognised its more important to govern than to enjoy the intellectual purity of opposition.

    Agreed.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,508

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    edited January 20
    'UKIP: circling the plughole'

    Theresa May should offer Bolton a knighthood for services to cleaning up politics by his actions in destroying UKIP. I suggest Knight of the Bath.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    edited January 20

    On topic. While Mr Herdson is right that we see in Europe plenty of evidence of strongly right-wing parties making progress, apart from the UKIP/EU period there is no such tradition in the UK - on either the left or right. Both Labour & the Tories have managed to corral 'broad churches' which has meant the extremes have been inhabited by outright racists such as the BNP, or communists & Socialist Workers (sic). Of course where Momentum's entry into the Labour party leaves us, only time will tell - but (absent periods of delusion) both Labour & the Tories have generally recognised its more important to govern than to enjoy the intellectual purity of opposition.

    I think that is almost certainly a function of our electoral system. Proportional representation gives much more power to small single-issue parties, where here they are - with very rare exceptions - almost completely irrelevant. Instead, hunting for such votes causes the big parties to reach out and establish a patchwork of different views so they can appeal as widely as possible.

    Ken Clarke is a classic case, of course, but it is worth remembering the first Labour governments included Philip Snowden as well as George Lansbury. Even under Blair you had Cook and Brown in the same cabinet.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    I would be surprised. For many voters their raison d'être - Brexit - has been decided and however much we fret over the details if it looks 'more or less' like Brexit I can't see them getting much traction. `Even if they had a functioning organisation.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    edited January 20
    Although the leader is a problem, he is not the problem. The problem is that UKIP no longer serves any purpose within the political debate.

    They have the 'having your dream come true' problem, which takes away much of their attraction (not just politically, but also the sense of radicalism/embuggerance/rebellion that voting for them used to offer).
  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,920
    The thread picture appears to show the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge cruising away from UKIP-land as Clacton-on-Sea disappears on the horizon.

    There's romance for you ....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,879
    Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    IanB2 said:

    Although the leader is a problem, he is not the problem. The problem is that UKIP no longer serves any purpose within the political debate.

    They have the 'having your dream come true' problem, which takes away much of their attraction (not just politically, but also the sense of radicalism/embuggerance/rebellion that voting for them used to offer).

    And when Brexit turns out not quite all it was cracked up to be - but a bit 'meh' then any possible appeal will diminish further.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    dr_spyn said:

    Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

    twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/954345709616103424

    I think Liam Byrne wrote a short letter that may answer her question.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,508

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    I would be surprised. For many voters their raison d'être - Brexit - has been decided and however much we fret over the details if it looks 'more or less' like Brexit I can't see them getting much traction. `Even if they had a functioning organisation.....
    If we maintain FOM, or something very like it - and are still sending billions to the EU - I don’t think that will feel like Brexit to former UKIP voters. And it will be the Tories who agreed such a deal.

    Many countries have a right wing anti immigrant party/faction getting something like 10% of the vote - I don’t see why Britain should be different.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    I would be surprised. For many voters their raison d'être - Brexit - has been decided and however much we fret over the details if it looks 'more or less' like Brexit I can't see them getting much traction. `Even if they had a functioning organisation.....
    If we maintain FOM, or something very like it - and are still sending billions to the EU - I don’t think that will feel like Brexit to former UKIP voters. And it will be the Tories who agreed such a deal.

    Many countries have a right wing anti immigrant party/faction getting something like 10% of the vote - I don’t see why Britain should be different.

    I would have thought FPTP would limit the appeal of such parties.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,508
    RobD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    I would be surprised. For many voters their raison d'être - Brexit - has been decided and however much we fret over the details if it looks 'more or less' like Brexit I can't see them getting much traction. `Even if they had a functioning organisation.....
    If we maintain FOM, or something very like it - and are still sending billions to the EU - I don’t think that will feel like Brexit to former UKIP voters. And it will be the Tories who agreed such a deal.

    Many countries have a right wing anti immigrant party/faction getting something like 10% of the vote - I don’t see why Britain should be different.

    I would have thought FPTP would limit the appeal of such parties.
    It certainly limits the impact of such parties - at least directly.
    But it doesn’t stop people from voting for them - particularly single issue voters...
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,879
    The problem is the leader – but could anyone else do better? Perhaps the same could be said of Vince Cable and the Lib Dems?

    As for Boles, a shot might be fired, but is anyone actually going to take a risk to remove May. The tweet is noticed, but the thread header applies to the Tories as well.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131
    Just seen the text of the tax question asked by YouGov about the SNP plans:

    It was "Last month the Scottish government announced changes to income tax. The effect of the change will be that compared to people in England and Wales taxpayers earning less than £26,000 will pay less tax, and those earning more than £26,000 will pay more tax. From what you have seen or heard, do you support or oppose these changes to income tax in Scotland?"

    Even with that phrasing only 27% of people were opposed.
  • UKIP is not a right wing party--it is a single issue party.

    I joined UKIP in 2003, as there was the smell of an opportunity to leave the EU. It was a small, simple and sensible step. Our members can be proud that they made a significant contribution to freeing the UK from the EU's malign embrace.

    Although UKIP would prefer a clean Brexit, nobody is listening to us now. The feeling from our supporters, rather than our members, is that our job is done.

    Our most active members have enjoyed their involvement in British politics. They are reluctant to give it up. But there is nowhere for them to go.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,365
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,364

    UKIP is not a right wing party--it is a single issue party.

    I joined UKIP in 2003, as there was the smell of an opportunity to leave the EU. It was a small, simple and sensible step. Our members can be proud that they made a significant contribution to freeing the UK from the EU's malign embrace.

    Although UKIP would prefer a clean Brexit, nobody is listening to us now. The feeling from our supporters, rather than our members, is that our job is done.

    Our most active members have enjoyed their involvement in British politics. They are reluctant to give it up. But there is nowhere for them to go.

    Well We shall see if the effect is as you hope, quite frankly the Youth of this nation have been sold up the river.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    dr_spyn said:

    Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

    LOL, and the brilliant-as-ever Ms Pidcock drawing attention to the planted member of the audience rather than the issue at hand.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    edited January 20

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    I thought the telegraph headline had been debunked?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    Sandpit said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

    LOL, and the brilliant-as-ever Ms Pidcock drawing attention to the planted member of the audience rather than the issue at hand.
    Though she was born and brought up in Hereford:

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    I thought the telegraph headline had been debunked?
    Not to the any straw will do true believers......
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    I thought the telegraph headline had been debunked?
    Lidington is flying a kite in floating the idea at all, even if heavily shrouded that the EU would "have changed".

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,365
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    I thought the telegraph headline had been debunked?
    Here is the Telegraph's interview with Lidington, who rules out membership of the customs union and the EU, while raising the possibility of joining a changed customs union or EU.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/19/david-lidington-interview-britain-could-join-customs-union-eu/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,365
    Scott_P said:
    OT is it just me who cannot abide the American "one year anniversary" which is now creeping in over here?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Good morning, everyone.

    I'm growing tired of the constant cold weather. At least it seems to be improving on Monday.

    On-topic: there may well be a UKIP resurgence after the deal is done. There's likely to be co-operation/integration at some level, and the more there is the more sting for those who want us completely separate. In addition, with the rising shriek of EU-philia from some, there could be a counter movement (although I think that less likely as a cause for a purple resurrection as those who love the EU are disproportionately represented in the media).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,002
    What do we think Farage will do next? "Quietly eschew the limelight" seems implausible. Might he offer to ride to the rescue of UKIP one more time? Or start a new party? Or is he just going to enjoy being a free-ranging provocative pundit?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Mr. Palmer, he might wait until we've left the EU before returning to politics. UKIP has baggage now, and was largely seen as a single issue party. Of course, he might prefer the media lifestyle, where you get to pontificate without responsibility for actually doing anything.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,548

    What do we think Farage will do next? "Quietly eschew the limelight" seems implausible. Might he offer to ride to the rescue of UKIP one more time? Or start a new party? Or is he just going to enjoy being a free-ranging provocative pundit?

    He's a household name in America now. Punditry there is infinitely more lucrative than shouting from the sidelines while unemployed (no longer an MEP) here.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,107
    Sandpit said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

    LOL, and the brilliant-as-ever Ms Pidcock drawing attention to the planted member of the audience rather than the issue at hand.
    The Tory 'secret plan to privatise the NHS' must be the most overplayed card ever...

    My theory however is that the public don't agree - the political party who cried wolf, without the wolf ever appearing.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097

    What do we think Farage will do next? "Quietly eschew the limelight" seems implausible. Might he offer to ride to the rescue of UKIP one more time? Or start a new party? Or is he just going to enjoy being a free-ranging provocative pundit?

    Well it’s certainly clear that without Farage, UKIP couldn’t organise the proverbial party in an ale house.

    If Brexit happens as planned, they should just go their separate ways happy in the knowledge that they achieved their goal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,548

    Scott_P said:
    OT is it just me who cannot abide the American "one year anniversary" which is now creeping in over here?
    Its rather redundant.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,365
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

    LOL, and the brilliant-as-ever Ms Pidcock drawing attention to the planted member of the audience rather than the issue at hand.
    The Tory 'secret plan to privatise the NHS' must be the most overplayed card ever...

    My theory however is that the public don't agree - the political party who cried wolf, without the wolf ever appearing.

    Mine is the posturing does not matter because patients, their friends and families can all see that the NHS has been getting worse recently.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,663
    @rcs1000 FPT

    The real reason why the UK is preferred by Eastern Europeans is language. English is a transferable skill (and many already have the basics) plus there are already established communities where they can feel at home.

    Of course economics are important but it’s not the only thing, especially for the temporary migrants you describe
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

    LOL, and the brilliant-as-ever Ms Pidcock drawing attention to the planted member of the audience rather than the issue at hand.
    The Tory 'secret plan to privatise the NHS' must be the most overplayed card ever...

    My theory however is that the public don't agree - the political party who cried wolf, without the wolf ever appearing.

    As Carillion rumbles on, increasingly the refuseniks of Corbynism are shown to be correct over PFI and outsourcing.

    There are many ways to run a health system. We seem to be evolving into one that combines the worst of both worlds. The inflexibility of centrally funded monopoly, with the greed of private corporations employing ZHC casual labour.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,169

    What do we think Farage will do next? "Quietly eschew the limelight" seems implausible. Might he offer to ride to the rescue of UKIP one more time? Or start a new party? Or is he just going to enjoy being a free-ranging provocative pundit?

    When we get a particularly shit variation on BINO then May will give him a peerage as part of a campaign of assuagement and distraction of the Swollen Prostated Philanthropists who voted Leave.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,838
    RobD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    I would be surprised. For many voters their raison d'être - Brexit - has been decided and however much we fret over the details if it looks 'more or less' like Brexit I can't see them getting much traction. `Even if they had a functioning organisation.....
    If we maintain FOM, or something very like it - and are still sending billions to the EU - I don’t think that will feel like Brexit to former UKIP voters. And it will be the Tories who agreed such a deal.

    Many countries have a right wing anti immigrant party/faction getting something like 10% of the vote - I don’t see why Britain should be different.

    I would have thought FPTP would limit the appeal of such parties.
    The various non FPTP voting systems available in Scotland haven't given right wing anti immigrant parties much of a look in.

    Unless you count a substantial section of the SCons.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,107

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

    LOL, and the brilliant-as-ever Ms Pidcock drawing attention to the planted member of the audience rather than the issue at hand.
    The Tory 'secret plan to privatise the NHS' must be the most overplayed card ever...

    My theory however is that the public don't agree - the political party who cried wolf, without the wolf ever appearing.

    Mine is the posturing does not matter because patients, their friends and families can all see that the NHS has been getting worse recently.
    Has it? Seems pretty much the same as it has always done to me.

    Flip the stats on their head and things sound pretty good. Rather than 'loads of people had to wait for more than 4 hours', 90% of people seen and treated within 4 hours and st no charge.

    I wish the left would stop doing down our wonderful NHS.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,521
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    I am not a closet kipper, but I think conflating them (as a party, not as individual supporters) with BNP/NF/EDL is wrong. They are different from and a lot funnier than that lot, and the BNP/NF/EDL slot is as far as I know currently occupied by the EDL.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    edited January 20
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    I am not a closet kipper, but I think conflating them (as a party, not as individual supporters) with BNP/NF/EDL is wrong. They are different from and a lot funnier than that lot, and the BNP/NF/EDL slot is as far as I know currently occupied by the EDL.
    Sure, UKIP stretched its wings beyond the 2-3% happy to vote for hard right racist parties, but now it is contracting to that core vote that has always been there. The interesting thing is not that 3%, but the other 10% or so that used to vote kipper. Most went Tory (though will they return to NOTA or nonvoting?), but part of their vote went to Corbynite Labour. Remember when Con take Bolsover was a meme here?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131
    Scott_P said:
    A gov shutdown when they control all three branches of government is a special achievement for the Republicans.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    I am not a closet kipper, but I think conflating them (as a party, not as individual supporters) with BNP/NF/EDL is wrong. They are different from and a lot funnier than that lot, and the BNP/NF/EDL slot is as far as I know currently occupied by the EDL.
    BNP = UKIP for pussies.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,521

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    I am not a closet kipper, but I think conflating them (as a party, not as individual supporters) with BNP/NF/EDL is wrong. They are different from and a lot funnier than that lot, and the BNP/NF/EDL slot is as far as I know currently occupied by the EDL.
    BNP = UKIP for pussies.
    Other way round.
  • It’s getting to a point where I wonder if the US political system, widely admired around the world, has irretrievably broken down. It was never designed for the sort of partisanship we see now. Ironically, they are stuck with it because you need bipartisan support to change the system in the first place. Say what you will about the Westminster system, but if you can’t pass a budget, there’s an election to give somebody the chance to do so.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    A gov shutdown when they control all three branches of government is a special achievement for the Republicans.
    The way they’ll see it is that for every week it’s shut down, they’ll be saving 2% of their annual costs budget.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 34,492
    Alistair said:

    A gov shutdown when they control all three branches of government is a special achievement for the Republicans.

    Might give Trump more time for golf...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    edited January 20
    Mr. Twelve, technically, not true any more due to the Fix Term Parliament Idiocy.

    Edited extra bit: Fixed*
  • MetatronMetatron Posts: 110
    The modern left are mostly about identity politics and virtue signalling.The tories have positioned themselves in these areas.This leaves a huge opportunity for a party on the right to exploit if they can find a leader , a competent. organiser and financial backer.
    Anecdotedly UKIP`s organisation has always been well under par and they were over dependent on 1 financial backer.
  • I’m also wondering what happened to the Trump who was going to be making all these wonderful deals? For someone who credited himself for his fine negotiation tactics this is looking like a bit of a mess...
  • Mr. Twelve, technically, not true any more due to the Fix Term Parliament Idiocy.

    Edited extra bit: Fixed*

    Yes, true! Another reason to hate it... the biggest disappointment with the 2017 GE result was that it would stay on the statute book. I’m hoping the next government, Labour or Tory, returns to sanity on that front and sees it for what it is. A short-termist, Coalition-inspired bill to keep everyone in line for 5 years.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    Metatron said:

    The modern left are mostly about identity politics and virtue signalling.The tories have positioned themselves in these areas.This leaves a huge opportunity for a party on the right to exploit if they can find a leader , a competent. organiser and financial backer.
    Anecdotedly UKIP`s organisation has always been well under par and they were over dependent on 1 financial backer.

    UKIP were/are a party about identity politics.

    The Jezzagasm in June was not about identity politics, it was by campaigning on anti-susterity and intergeneraltional unfairness.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,334
    edited January 20
    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,706


    There was always an element of old Labour policies in UKIP, and at one time many thought they could take old Labour northern seats. New Labour was in part due to the perceived Thatcherism economic success , Corbyn in part is due to perceived Thatcherism economic failure.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,334
    Personally, I hope that UKIP disappear never to be heard of again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,287
    Metatron said:

    The modern left are mostly about identity politics and virtue signalling.The tories have positioned themselves in these areas.This leaves a huge opportunity for a party on the right to exploit if they can find a leader , a competent. organiser and financial backer.
    Anecdotedly UKIP`s organisation has always been well under par and they were over dependent on 1 financial backer.

    Morning all,

    I think there is a good chance that something will emerge on the Right if/when UKIP collapses.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,663
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    He didn’t - he was basically saying that in 20 parliament and the people may choose to discuss the issue and may choose to rejoin the EU (who knows what it will look like but it will almost certainly be different to today)

    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,684
    Foxy said:

    Metatron said:

    The modern left are mostly about identity politics and virtue signalling.The tories have positioned themselves in these areas.This leaves a huge opportunity for a party on the right to exploit if they can find a leader , a competent. organiser and financial backer.
    Anecdotedly UKIP`s organisation has always been well under par and they were over dependent on 1 financial backer.

    UKIP were/are a party about identity politics.

    The Jezzagasm in June was not about identity politics, it was by campaigning on anti-susterity and intergeneraltional unfairness.
    'lol'
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,521
    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    indeed. All is for the best in this best possible of all Labour parties.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131
    The SNP must be absolutely delighted their mundane, run of the mill Facebook ad is now front page on various papers including the Scotsman.

    Cheapest publicity ever.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    I thought the telegraph headline had been debunked?
    Here is the Telegraph's interview with Lidington, who rules out membership of the customs union and the EU, while raising the possibility of joining a changed customs union or EU.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/19/david-lidington-interview-britain-could-join-customs-union-eu/
    And here's the full, unedited transcript:



  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    He didn’t - he was basically saying that in 20 parliament and the people may choose to discuss the issue and may choose to rejoin the EU (who knows what it will look like but it will almost certainly be different to today)

    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    A Senior member of the government discussing rejoining, however dressed up, is news.

    I think that he is probably not far off on timescale, In a decade, Britain will have evolved, and the EU will have evolved, and I can see a rejoin movement being a strong part of political life.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,287
    Cyclefree said:

    Personally, I hope that UKIP disappear never to be heard of again.

    its replacement could be far worse.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779

    Cyclefree said:

    Personally, I hope that UKIP disappear never to be heard of again.

    its replacement could be far worse.
    Bit it would also be far smaller. There has long been an NF/BNP/EDL type far right party, and that is likely to continue.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,511
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    He didn’t - he was basically saying that in 20 parliament and the people may choose to discuss the issue and may choose to rejoin the EU (who knows what it will look like but it will almost certainly be different to today)

    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    Rejoining is a pretty high probability. Leaving in a way that makes rejoining easier makes a lot of sense. It's good to know that senior people in government are leaning that way.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    He didn’t - he was basically saying that in 20 parliament and the people may choose to discuss the issue and may choose to rejoin the EU (who knows what it will look like but it will almost certainly be different to today)

    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    A Senior member of the government discussing rejoining, however dressed up, is news.
    Read what he said.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Mr. Twelve, the lack of a sunset clause was bloody ridiculous.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,838
    edited January 20
    Alistair said:

    The SNP must be absolutely delighted their mundane, run of the mill Facebook ad is now front page on various papers including the Scotsman.

    Cheapest publicity ever.

    I would like to think that the good people of Edinburgh Western might now have sufficient cause to regret their decision, but I fear not.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Miss Vance, that's quite the headline change.

    Miss Vance (2), I don't believe Macron. It's like Chirac dangling CAP reform before Blair to get the rebate halved.
  • calumcalum Posts: 2,972

    Alistair said:

    The SNP must be absolutely delighted their mundane, run of the mill Facebook ad is now front page on various papers including the Scotsman.

    Cheapest publicity ever.

    I would like to think that the good people of Edinburgh Western might now have sufficient cause to regret their decision, but I fear not.
    It's now had over 200k views in the last 36 hours - I think it shows that with newspaper sales continuing to fall off dramatically that social media will become an ever increasingly important election battleground.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    He didn’t - he was basically saying that in 20 parliament and the people may choose to discuss the issue and may choose to rejoin the EU (who knows what it will look like but it will almost certainly be different to today)

    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    Rejoining is a pretty high probability. Leaving in a way that makes rejoining easier makes a lot of sense. It's good to know that senior people in government are leaning that way.
    Rejoining the Customs Union would be a step in the direction of accession.

    To propose that following Brexit, we should modify the deal to have a closer, softer, relationship is indeed a significant kite being flown.

    Re-entry will grow as an idea, but it will be a while before it is government policy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638


    Miss Vance (2), I don't believe Macron. It's like Chirac dangling CAP reform before Blair to get the rebate halved.

    Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me......
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,508
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    He didn’t - he was basically saying that in 20 parliament and the people may choose to discuss the issue and may choose to rejoin the EU (who knows what it will look like but it will almost certainly be different to today)

    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    Agreed. Misleading click bait seems to be the telegraph strategy these days.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779

    Miss Vance, that's quite the headline change.

    Miss Vance (2), I don't believe Macron. It's like Chirac dangling CAP reform before Blair to get the rebate halved.

    Macron is a very smooth operator.

    He is master of the vague emollient language of diplomacy, and knows how to flatter egotists. Just look at how he charmed Trump, and Boris.

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,706
    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.
    Mother Agnes's defence of the Assad regime is rather implausible, but as a Christian in Syria it is not surprising that she sided with a fairly secular tyranny rather than an Islamist slave trading tyranny.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    One sentence, before reverting to patronising in English.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,287
    McVey makes first big decision:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42745616

    Climbdown put out on a Friday.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,508
    Foxy said:

    One sentence, before reverting to patronising in English.
    Bit uncharitable from you Foxy.
    Good on her for giving it a go. This site has a surprisingly high number of German speakers who will doubtless be along to critique her delivery - but I like to see politicians show they can speak a foreign language even if ts only a bit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Mr. rkrkrk, only got an A-level in it, but her pronunciation was fine (I used to call the EU the 'oi' in German, which annoyed my teacher no end).
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,264
    Foxy said:

    Mrs May speaking German:

    One sentence, before reverting to patronising in English.
    Speak German to your dog and English to your servant.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,511

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,663

    Mr. Twelve, technically, not true any more due to the Fix Term Parliament Idiocy.

    Edited extra bit: Fixed*

    Yes, true! Another reason to hate it... the biggest disappointment with the 2017 GE result was that it would stay on the statute book. I’m hoping the next government, Labour or Tory, returns to sanity on that front and sees it for what it is. A short-termist, Coalition-inspired bill to keep everyone in line for 5 years.
    I thought it was due to be reviewed in 2020. It may be easier to kill it then rather than in an election year, so 2017 may be beneficial
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,663
    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Wasn’t she the lady that even Owen Jones refused to share a platform with?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    You really should read what he said, not how it was reported......
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.
    Wasn’t she the lady that even Owen Jones refused to share a platform with?
    Yes, because of her claiming that the gas attack on the Damascus suburb was faked.

    Of course we are much more used to Fake News, conspiracy theories, and denials of reality now. These are the bread and butter of modern politics.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,511

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    You really should read what he said, not how it was reported......
    Will do. But first I have to work on my project to convince a few million people that James Callaghan didn't say 'crisis, what crisis' and Margeret Thatcher's 'there is no such thing as society' was perfectly reasonable in context.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,246

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
    1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
    2) continuation of freedom of movement

    Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.
    Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

    Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.
    UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

    The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

    Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.
    The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait
    And online has been modified from the front page:

    UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

    to:

    David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit
    That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.
    Good morning all.

    Rejoining has always been on the agenda. It's democracy. There's a mechanism for rejoining: article 49. I fully expect that a good chunk of the electorate will be quite keen to rejoin. If the conditions were right, I'd back rejoining.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    edited January 20
    Unless the Tories capitulate in the Brexit talks completely and agree to keep the UK permanently in the single market and leave free movement in place there is little room for UKIP to progress. Indeed May even adopted their support for more grammar schools albeit that has not been pushed after the general election.

    Sadly the best route for UKIP to have taken was to elect Anne Marie Waters rather than Henry Bolton at their last leadership election and go full Le Pen, Wilders or Freedom Party or AfD on a hardline anti radical Islam ticket which may have got them some traction in white working class areas especially in the North and Midlands. They may have been the new nasty party but they would not be the new joke party, indeed their predicament is so bad that Henry Bolton's love life appeared as a comic item on the Graham Norton show last night.
This discussion has been closed.