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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour reveals some of its English targets for the next electi

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited January 20 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour reveals some of its English targets for the next election

Even though we could be four and a half years away from the next general election LAB is clearly getting ready and today it has announced that candidates have been put in place in 24 key targets in England.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,521
    1
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Surprised Morley & Outwood isn't on the list.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,701
    From the names I recognise there isn’t much sign of a hard-left takeover.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,186
    They should really have worked out that Sally Keeble is no longer the right fit for Northampton North. A fresh face would have increased their chances there. Sometimes you need to say enough is enough, it is time to move on.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,541
    I doubt that's a safe assumption in the final paragraph. The Conservatives have four years to comb through the back catalogue.
  • FangsyFangsy Posts: 23
    Thurrock isn't in Greater London, Mike.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,541
    Nick Palmer must have mixed emotions about seeing Broxtowe select someone else. He can feel proud of his personal efforts.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,302
    Fangsy said:

    Thurrock isn't in Greater London, Mike.

    Thank you. I'll amend
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,706
    edited January 20

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Surprised Morley & Outwood isn't on the list.

    Morris same here.York Outer is a big ask , no chance IMO .It used to be the seat called Ryedale , always Conservative apart from a by-election in 1986 , when it went Lib Dem.It is mainly rural apart from the suburb areas around York.These are all Lib Dem local council seats.However Labour did surprisingly well at the last GE in June last year in this seat Conservative 29,356 Labour 21,067 Lib Dem 5,910 was a bit of a shock Labour even got that close.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 503
    Fangsy said:

    Thurrock isn't in Greater London, Mike.

    Not in the GLA area under the Mayor I agree - but nearly half the seat is inside the M25. So it's an easy mistake!
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,610

    I doubt that's a safe assumption in the final paragraph. The Conservatives have four years to comb through the back catalogue.

    Guido will do it for them no doubt.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,302

    Nick Palmer must have mixed emotions about seeing Broxtowe select someone else. He can feel proud of his personal efforts.

    I think Anna Soubry is going to be quite tough to beat.

    I always felt that Nick was going to re-take the seat at GE15. Having gone through that experience my sense is Nick won't be standing again.

    I only fought one general election and that was a very bruising experience. It takes a lot out of you physically and emotionally.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Mr. City, must be said I was surprised there was a swing away from Labour last time here, but it's still very close.

    Mr. Smithson, and politics certainly hasn't gotten kinder or gentler since then.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    Commendable strategy to get candidates in early for the target seats, as it allows them to get local name recognition and helps to guard against a snap election.

    Hope they’ve done enough vetting on the individuals though, as their opponents now have a lot of time to dig up any skeletons.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 996

    Nick Palmer must have mixed emotions about seeing Broxtowe select someone else. He can feel proud of his personal efforts.

    I think Anna Soubry is going to be quite tough to beat.

    I always felt that Nick was going to re-take the seat at GE15. Having gone through that experience my sense is Nick won't be standing again.

    I only fought one general election and that was a very bruising experience. It takes a lot out of you physically and emotionally.
    I don't know know why they aim at reasonable and humane people like Soubry who's clashed with her own party on the EU and welfare. Yet they fail to target MPs with majorities <5,000 from the 'hard right' ... or who have no principles at all:

    Johnson - Uxbridge
    IDS - Chingford
    Davies - Shipley
    Rudd - Hastings

    Rudd's said v. unpleasant things about poor people when she thought she was away from a microphone. Private Eye's published stories on her past business career and no doubt would publish more if she became PM.

    It excludes Milton Keynes South which looks more winnable than MK North. NE Somerset might be winnable if they'd target JRM and his 18th.C policies. It's an ex- (very ex-)coal mining area.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097

    Nick Palmer must have mixed emotions about seeing Broxtowe select someone else. He can feel proud of his personal efforts.

    I think Anna Soubry is going to be quite tough to beat.

    I always felt that Nick was going to re-take the seat at GE15. Having gone through that experience my sense is Nick won't be standing again.

    I only fought one general election and that was a very bruising experience. It takes a lot out of you physically and emotionally.
    A lot of respect for anyone who puts themselves up for Parliament. For all the negative stories about MPs and how we collectively like to bash them, it can’t be an easy experience.

    A lot is said about the quality of MPs declining on all sides, maybe sometimes we reap what we sow by discouraging good people from putting themselves up for such intimate public scrutiny.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,642

    Nick Palmer must have mixed emotions about seeing Broxtowe select someone else. He can feel proud of his personal efforts.

    I think Anna Soubry is going to be quite tough to beat.

    I always felt that Nick was going to re-take the seat at GE15. Having gone through that experience my sense is Nick won't be standing again.

    I only fought one general election and that was a very bruising experience. It takes a lot out of you physically and emotionally.
    I don't know know why they aim at reasonable and humane people like Soubry who's clashed with her own party on the EU and welfare. Yet they fail to target MPs with majorities <5,000 from the 'hard right' ... or who have no principles at all:

    Johnson - Uxbridge
    IDS - Chingford
    Davies - Shipley
    Rudd - Hastings

    Rudd's said v. unpleasant things about poor people when she thought she was away from a microphone. Private Eye's published stories on her past business career and no doubt would publish more if she became PM.

    It excludes Milton Keynes South which looks more winnable than MK North. NE Somerset might be winnable if they'd target JRM and his 18th.C policies. It's an ex- (very ex-)coal mining area. </p>
    Very little difference in swing required for both Milton Keynes seats. Probably a case of not yet having selected a candidate. Ditto for other seats not mentioned.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 34,492
    @PickardJE: Farage, MEP for 18 years and seven times failed Parliamentary candidate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    Some places which were narrowly won in 2015 stayed Tory in 2017 despite Labour doing better, so not surprised to see a few of them, like Swindon South.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,838
    Sandpit said:

    Commendable strategy to get candidates in early for the target seats, as it allows them to get local name recognition and helps to guard against a snap election.

    Hope they’ve done enough vetting on the individuals though, as their opponents now have a lot of time to dig up any skeletons.

    Let's hope that none of the candidates have straight talking, common sense blogs with comments that can be deliberately 'misinterpreted' by political opponents.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Turkey launching air strikes against Kurds in northern Syria:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42759944
  • Believe me, that Mike is right. I fought an election (2005 - Derby South) and it was a truly great experience, but you put everything into it, even though you know you have no real chance of winning! Nevertheless, it is so much to be recommended. Corby is a very interesting seat and Tom Pursglove has been a very effective new MP. It will be a tough nut for Labour, but will depend on the situation as and when an election occurs. But Beth Miller should know that the Conservative ground effort is strong in that constituency!!
  • stevefstevef Posts: 999
    Labour will win very few if any of those seats for as long as the hard left are in control of the party.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404
    edited January 20
    FPT:
    Charles said:

    FWIW I was told the other day that many of the opioids are being manufactured in Chinese state owned facilities

    I was also told that the percentage of the US population addicted is remarkably similar to the percentage of Chinese addicted in the opium wars...
    Thanks for that info, it’s sadly ironic that’s the case.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,541
    Good news for those of us who have Michael Gove onside in the next Prime MInister/next Conservative leader markets:

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Mr. Meeks, having consulted my records,I agree with you that this is good news.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,711
    Hastings not on the list.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,287

    Nick Palmer must have mixed emotions about seeing Broxtowe select someone else. He can feel proud of his personal efforts.

    I think Anna Soubry is going to be quite tough to beat.

    I always felt that Nick was going to re-take the seat at GE15. Having gone through that experience my sense is Nick won't be standing again.

    I only fought one general election and that was a very bruising experience. It takes a lot out of you physically and emotionally.
    To be picky, Broxtowe Labour had already selected Greg Marshall, for the 2017 GE. So, he's not a newbie, as might be implied by Mr Meeks comment about Nick's emotions. Nick pulled his own application for that election some weeks beforehand and put his weight behind Marshall iirc.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,663

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    FWIW I was told the other day that many of the opioids are being manufactured in Chinese state owned facilities

    I was also told that the percentage of the US population addicted is remarkably similar to the percentage of Chinese addicted in the opium wars...
    Thanks for that info, it’s sadly ironic that’s the case.
    Not ironic. Deliberate. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,864
    Cocky, and hubristic.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,701
    Charles said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    FWIW I was told the other day that many of the opioids are being manufactured in Chinese state owned facilities

    I was also told that the percentage of the US population addicted is remarkably similar to the percentage of Chinese addicted in the opium wars...
    Thanks for that info, it’s sadly ironic that’s the case.
    Not ironic. Deliberate. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
    They’ve picked the wrong target in that case.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,355
    Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work
  • Utterly off-thread, but does anybody know why England are odds against to win the third ODI in Sydney?

    They won the first two pretty comfortably and their formidable batting line-up isn't going to be any weaker next time up.

  • Off-topic:

    Cannot get chilli-peppers in Hither-Green. So the wife will have a Chicken-Madras tomorrow.

    That is all: Please stand-down.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    edited January 20
    Mr. Punter, not a cricketist, but it could just be mispriced. Happens sometimes (and can be disconcerting).

    Edited extra bit: ha. Sorry, that's teaching your grandmother to suck eggs. I might as well try telling Mr. Eagles about wearing terrible, gaudy clothes.
  • Off topic too Mr Morris, but is your vaunted school of trebuchet returns to France anything to do with feeding any shortcomings to the Haddock?
  • Mr. Punter, not a cricketist, but it could just be mispriced. Happens sometimes (and can be disconcerting).

    Edited extra bit: ha. Sorry, that's teaching your grandmother to suck eggs. I might as well try telling Mr. Eagles about wearing terrible, gaudy clothes.

    Not at all, Morris. I really do think it is mispriced.

    Australia have two quickies returning but I wouldn't think that's going to make much difference.

    And whilst I am delighted to see England winning these little tussles, their success does little to placate those of us who thought Hales, Buttler and Rashid should have been in the Ashes squad. Sure, the white ball game is different, but not *that* different. Rashid's exclusion remains particularly culpable.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097

    Utterly off-thread, but does anybody know why England are odds against to win the third ODI in Sydney?

    They won the first two pretty comfortably and their formidable batting line-up isn't going to be any weaker next time up.

    It’s forecast to be a hot and humid day in Sydney, and they only had one day’s rest since the last match - but I’d still say England should be favourites having won the last two ODIs so convincingly.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Mr. Brackenbury, the enormo-haddock diet is a refined and specialised array of the finest foods. I wouldn't sully their palates with half-frozen chavs. What a thing to suggest.

    Mr. Punter, I'd add that mispriced things can sometimes not come off. Last season I backed No Safety Car at Hungary, and, for the only time in over 30 years, there was a safety car on the first lap.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    Charles said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    FWIW I was told the other day that many of the opioids are being manufactured in Chinese state owned facilities

    I was also told that the percentage of the US population addicted is remarkably similar to the percentage of Chinese addicted in the opium wars...
    Thanks for that info, it’s sadly ironic that’s the case.
    Not ironic. Deliberate. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
    Although they seem to have the wrong target :p
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    justin124 said:

    Nick Palmer must have mixed emotions about seeing Broxtowe select someone else. He can feel proud of his personal efforts.

    I think Anna Soubry is going to be quite tough to beat.

    I always felt that Nick was going to re-take the seat at GE15. Having gone through that experience my sense is Nick won't be standing again.

    I only fought one general election and that was a very bruising experience. It takes a lot out of you physically and emotionally.
    I don't know know why they aim at reasonable and humane people like Soubry who's clashed with her own party on the EU and welfare. Yet they fail to target MPs with majorities <5,000 from the 'hard right' ... or who have no principles at all:

    Johnson - Uxbridge
    IDS - Chingford
    Davies - Shipley
    Rudd - Hastings

    Rudd's said v. unpleasant things about poor people when she thought she was away from a microphone. Private Eye's published stories on her past business career and no doubt would publish more if she became PM.

    It excludes Milton Keynes South which looks more winnable than MK North. NE Somerset might be winnable if they'd target JRM and his 18th.C policies. It's an ex- (very ex-)coal mining area. </p>
    Very little difference in swing required for both Milton Keynes seats. Probably a case of not yet having selected a candidate. Ditto for other seats not mentioned.
    There is certainly a lot of Labour activity on the ground in IDS's seat. The seats a party chooses to "announce" nationally as targets don't necessarily correspond precisely with those that are actually on the target list!
  • Sandpit said:

    Utterly off-thread, but does anybody know why England are odds against to win the third ODI in Sydney?

    They won the first two pretty comfortably and their formidable batting line-up isn't going to be any weaker next time up.

    It’s forecast to be a hot and humid day in Sydney, and they only had one day’s rest since the last match - but I’d still say England should be favourites having won the last two ODIs so convincingly.
    2.44 on Betfair. Always an element of chance in these games, but you'd have say the value is with the Prisoners Of Mother England.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Mr. B2, sometimes they do. The infamous Lib Dem decapitation strategy of (I think) 2005 would've stood a better chance of working if they hadn't announced it.

    Flaminius must have been very upset Hannibal wasn't a Lib Dem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    The fact that 20 out of 24 of those Labour target seats voted Leave suggests Corbyn's commitment to take the UK out of the single market and end free movement is unlikely to change before the next general election
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095
    Hobon's choice: stay with the leader they have who will lead them to their doom, or replace him and, er, face doom.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    edited January 20

    Sandpit said:

    Utterly off-thread, but does anybody know why England are odds against to win the third ODI in Sydney?

    They won the first two pretty comfortably and their formidable batting line-up isn't going to be any weaker next time up.

    It’s forecast to be a hot and humid day in Sydney, and they only had one day’s rest since the last match - but I’d still say England should be favourites having won the last two ODIs so convincingly.
    2.44 on Betfair. Always an element of chance in these games, but you'd have say the value is with the Prisoners Of Mother England.
    I agree, to the point of having just added a few beer tokens to the pot at (now) 2.46.

    Also like the Betfair market on “to win the toss”, which for some unfathomable reason sees the convicts backed in to 1.98.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/event/28549146/multi-market?marketIds=1.139124398&marketIds=1.139124400&marketIds=1.139124402
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,002

    Nick Palmer must have mixed emotions about seeing Broxtowe select someone else. He can feel proud of his personal efforts.

    I think Anna Soubry is going to be quite tough to beat.

    I always felt that Nick was going to re-take the seat at GE15. Having gone through that experience my sense is Nick won't be standing again.

    I only fought one general election and that was a very bruising experience. It takes a lot out of you physically and emotionally.
    To be picky, Broxtowe Labour had already selected Greg Marshall, for the 2017 GE. So, he's not a newbie, as might be implied by Mr Meeks comment about Nick's emotions. Nick pulled his own application for that election some weeks beforehand and put his weight behind Marshall iirc.
    That's right. We are reasonably hopeful of taking Broxtowe - Conservative support for Anna is not very solid, though non-Conservatives interested in politics often quite approve of her (without usually intending actually to vote for her). The suburban areas are heavily Labour and Anna's majority depends on the outlying residential estates and villages, which voted Leave - you see the problem.

    I do hope to stand again, but not in Broxtowe - I enjoyed it and might be a respectable candidate in a seat we weren't likely to win, which are pretty common round here in Surrey.
  • calumcalum Posts: 2,972
  • Rebourne_FluffyRebourne_Fluffy Posts: 207
    edited January 20
    Friendly bet (FATJUGS):

    I am happy to offer any single puntah an evens-bet that the Pound-Sterling will hit $1.50 some time this year*: Usual stake is £50. Any takers?

    * A Wee-timmy-tedious bet but it will fund this site.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,334
    “I assume that someone has combed through the back social media posts of all of the above.”

    If they haven’t, they soon will be.

    Why no Amber Rudd?

    Also it gives these MPs ample warning, which might prove self-defeating.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131
    calum said:
    They are frikking clueless. This will probably end up the most viewed SNP PPB of all time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,895

    Friendly bet (FATJUGS):

    I am happy to offer any single puntah an evens-bet that the Pound-Sterling will hit $1.50 some time this year*: Usual stake is £50. Any takers?

    * A Wee-timmy-tedious bet but it will fund this site.

    How about a bet on sterling at the end of the year?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095
    HYUFD said:

    The fact that 20 out of 24 of those Labour target seats voted Leave suggests Corbyn's commitment to take the UK out of the single market and end free movement is unlikely to change before the next general election

    If May ends up with a half-decent Brext, then all that effort by Labour will be for naught.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543

    Nick Palmer must have mixed emotions about seeing Broxtowe select someone else. He can feel proud of his personal efforts.

    I think Anna Soubry is going to be quite tough to beat.

    I always felt that Nick was going to re-take the seat at GE15. Having gone through that experience my sense is Nick won't be standing again.

    I only fought one general election and that was a very bruising experience. It takes a lot out of you physically and emotionally.
    To be picky, Broxtowe Labour had already selected Greg Marshall, for the 2017 GE. So, he's not a newbie, as might be implied by Mr Meeks comment about Nick's emotions. Nick pulled his own application for that election some weeks beforehand and put his weight behind Marshall iirc.
    That's right. We are reasonably hopeful of taking Broxtowe - Conservative support for Anna is not very solid, though non-Conservatives interested in politics often quite approve of her (without usually intending actually to vote for her). The suburban areas are heavily Labour and Anna's majority depends on the outlying residential estates and villages, which voted Leave - you see the problem.

    I do hope to stand again, but not in Broxtowe - I enjoyed it and might be a respectable candidate in a seat we weren't likely to win, which are pretty common round here in Surrey.
    Spelthorne looks like the best of a bad lot? Although I am sure the Tories have the *respectable* vote in Surrey sewn up, so you would be better off aiming for disreputable. No former communist can ever be respectable, anyhow...
  • Charles said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    FWIW I was told the other day that many of the opioids are being manufactured in Chinese state owned facilities

    I was also told that the percentage of the US population addicted is remarkably similar to the percentage of Chinese addicted in the opium wars...
    Thanks for that info, it’s sadly ironic that’s the case.
    Not ironic. Deliberate. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
    Could it be possible that the Chinese are manufacturing at 'extra stength' ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    Pulpstar said:

    Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work

    You are making the assumption that Corbyn is rational and his back-office staff are intelligent.

    Hasn't experience taught you that whatever his talent for tapping into raw emotion these are unwise assumptions?
  • To be pedantic Broxtowe constituency voted Leave.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    rcs1000 said:

    Friendly bet (FATJUGS):

    I am happy to offer any single puntah an evens-bet that the Pound-Sterling will hit $1.50 some time this year*: Usual stake is £50. Any takers?

    * A Wee-timmy-tedious bet but it will fund this site.

    How about a bet on sterling at the end of the year?
    I said last year on PB that $1.40 was more likely than the $1.20 being widely predicted - which at the time was definitely a minority view. We are almost there, and remarkably without the FTSE having dipped correspondingly. It remains my view that the dip in the £ post-referendum was overdone, and the $ is also likely to fall medium term. I wouldn't however put money on $1.50 until the fog clears on Brexit, which is more likely 2019 than this year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work

    You are making the assumption that Corbyn is rational and his back-office staff are intelligent.

    Hasn't experience taught you that whatever his talent for tapping into raw emotion these are unwise assumptions?
    No (sensible) party releases its actual full list of targets, anyhow.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,002

    To be pedantic Broxtowe constituency voted Leave.

    Yes - but the Leave vote in that consituency was overwhelmingly in Tory areas. The Labour vote is heavily based around the university and Nottingham suburbs, and that area was almost as Remain as Inner London. It's an interesting seat to represent as it has quite distinct identities within it.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,302

    To be pedantic Broxtowe constituency voted Leave.


    Correct and corrected.
  • calumcalum Posts: 2,972
    Alistair said:

    calum said:
    They are frikking clueless. This will probably end up the most viewed SNP PPB of all time.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,663

    Charles said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    FWIW I was told the other day that many of the opioids are being manufactured in Chinese state owned facilities

    I was also told that the percentage of the US population addicted is remarkably similar to the percentage of Chinese addicted in the opium wars...
    Thanks for that info, it’s sadly ironic that’s the case.
    Not ironic. Deliberate. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
    They’ve picked the wrong target in that case.
    No - they’ve picked the most powerful Anglo-Saxon nation
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,302
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work

    You are making the assumption that Corbyn is rational and his back-office staff are intelligent.

    Hasn't experience taught you that whatever his talent for tapping into raw emotion these are unwise assumptions?
    This is not the complete list - just those targets where PPCs are in place
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,002
    I was looking at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ to see how the shutdown was being reported. Just glancing over the headlines shows how partisan and divided the country is - more than half the titles look like clickbait for one side or the other.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,302
    Cyclefree said:

    “I assume that someone has combed through the back social media posts of all of the above.”

    If they haven’t, they soon will be.

    Why no Amber Rudd?

    Also it gives these MPs ample warning, which might prove self-defeating.

    I don't think Amber Rudd need any reminding of the precariousness of her position.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543

    Mr. B2, sometimes they do. The infamous Lib Dem decapitation strategy of (I think) 2005 would've stood a better chance of working if they hadn't announced it.

    Flaminius must have been very upset Hannibal wasn't a Lib Dem.

    Arguable. The flaw with decapitation is that voters like having a high profile local MP, so aiming for top people is always a long shot. That's why betting on Rudd to hold will probably make sense. The LibDem thinking was that holding out the prospect of a local 'Portillo moment' would win over Labour tactical support. You'd need to do a comparative analysis of changes in the Labour vote share to assess whether this was successful or not.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,642
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work

    You are making the assumption that Corbyn is rational and his back-office staff are intelligent.

    Hasn't experience taught you that whatever his talent for tapping into raw emotion these are unwise assumptions?
    Labour did come close to winning Macclesfield at the September 1971 by election!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    edited January 20
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Friendly bet (FATJUGS):

    I am happy to offer any single puntah an evens-bet that the Pound-Sterling will hit $1.50 some time this year*: Usual stake is £50. Any takers?

    * A Wee-timmy-tedious bet but it will fund this site.

    How about a bet on sterling at the end of the year?
    I said last year on PB that $1.40 was more likely than the $1.20 being widely predicted - which at the time was definitely a minority view. We are almost there, and remarkably without the FTSE having dipped correspondingly. It remains my view that the dip in the £ post-referendum was overdone, and the $ is also likely to fall medium term. I wouldn't however put money on $1.50 until the fog clears on Brexit, which is more likely 2019 than this year.
    It’s also a bet on the US$, and with all the political uncertainty there and the mid-term elections in November, a spike in cable in the pound’s favour at the end of the year can’t be ruled out either. $1.50 is definitely within the realm of possibility.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,400
    calum said:
    Lib Dems really are a bunch of sad losers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work

    You are making the assumption that Corbyn is rational and his back-office staff are intelligent.

    Hasn't experience taught you that whatever his talent for tapping into raw emotion these are unwise assumptions?
    Labour did come close to winning Macclesfield at the September 1971 by election!
    The Conservatives held Bootle until 1945 :smile:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,838
    edited January 20
    calum said:
    Also an unlikely ally.



    edit: beat me to it!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    edited January 20

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work

    You are making the assumption that Corbyn is rational and his back-office staff are intelligent.

    Hasn't experience taught you that whatever his talent for tapping into raw emotion these are unwise assumptions?
    This is not the complete list - just those targets where PPCs are in place
    Then that's a second puzzling point - Corbyn has said (sensibly under the circumstances) that he's on a permanent election footing and ready to take on the Tories.

    Yet he doesn't have a full slate of candidates in target seats? Very careless.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131
    Scott_P said:
    You're so vain you think this PPB is about you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234

    HYUFD said:

    The fact that 20 out of 24 of those Labour target seats voted Leave suggests Corbyn's commitment to take the UK out of the single market and end free movement is unlikely to change before the next general election

    If May ends up with a half-decent Brext, then all that effort by Labour will be for naught.
    I doubt the deal will change allegiances too much, most Labour and LD voters still want to stay in the single market regardless of any deal and most Labour voting Leave seats will never vote Tory as the last general election proved, though it should shore up Tory marginals yes
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 34,492
    Alistair said:

    You're so vain you think this PPB is about you.

    @Jackiebhurd: @NicolaSturgeon @MazzucatoM @scotgov @NicolaSturgeon First Minister, I would love and interview to discuss your thoughts on #IamDavidTorrance and your party’s recent political broadcast. I am available Tuesday am. Pm me please.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131
    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    You're so vain you think this PPB is about you.

    @Jackiebhurd: @NicolaSturgeon @MazzucatoM @scotgov @NicolaSturgeon First Minister, I would love and interview to discuss your thoughts on #IamDavidTorrance and your party’s recent political broadcast. I am available Tuesday am. Pm me please.
    Probably not to a parody account
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    Should we even bother with a list of political cartoonists?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,663
    edited January 20
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    FWIW I was told the other day that many of the opioids are being manufactured in Chinese state owned facilities

    I was also told that the percentage of the US population addicted is remarkably similar to the percentage of Chinese addicted in the opium wars...
    Thanks for that info, it’s sadly ironic that’s the case.
    Not ironic. Deliberate. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
    Although they seem to have the wrong target :p
    I don’t think they differentiate between Anglo-Saxons...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Friendly bet (FATJUGS):

    I am happy to offer any single puntah an evens-bet that the Pound-Sterling will hit $1.50 some time this year*: Usual stake is £50. Any takers?

    * A Wee-timmy-tedious bet but it will fund this site.

    How about a bet on sterling at the end of the year?
    I said last year on PB that $1.40 was more likely than the $1.20 being widely predicted - which at the time was definitely a minority view. We are almost there, and remarkably without the FTSE having dipped correspondingly. It remains my view that the dip in the £ post-referendum was overdone, and the $ is also likely to fall medium term. I wouldn't however put money on $1.50 until the fog clears on Brexit, which is more likely 2019 than this year.
    It’s also a bet on the US$, and with all the political uncertainty there and the mid-term elections in November, a spike in cable in the pound’s favour at the end of the year can’t be ruled out either. $1.50 is definitely within the realm of possibility.
    "a spike in cable"

    LibDems gonna stick the ice-pick in him?
  • MetatronMetatron Posts: 110

    Nick Palmer must have mixed emotions about seeing Broxtowe select someone else. He can feel proud of his personal efforts.

    I think Anna Soubry is going to be quite tough to beat.

    I always felt that Nick was going to re-take the seat at GE15. Having gone through that experience my sense is Nick won't be standing again.

    I only fought one general election and that was a very bruising experience. It takes a lot out of you physically and emotionally.
    I don't know know why they aim at reasonable and humane people like Soubry who's clashed with her own party on the EU and welfare. Yet they fail to target MPs with majorities <5,000 from the 'hard right' ... or who have no principles at all:

    Johnson - Uxbridge
    IDS - Chingford
    Davies - Shipley
    Rudd - Hastings

    Rudd's said v. unpleasant things about poor people when she thought she was away from a microphone. Private Eye's published stories on her past business career and no doubt would publish more if she became PM.

    It excludes Milton Keynes South which looks more winnable than MK North. NE Somerset might be winnable if they'd target JRM and his 18th.C policies. It's an ex- (very ex-)coal mining area. </p>
    come on.I do not care much for IDS politics but the one thing one cannot accuse him of is not having principles.His tory leadership took the weird position of being even more hawkish on the Iraq War than Blair which in terms of game theory was daft.He refused to be moved from his Work & Pensions cabinet job in Camerons 2013 reshuffle and later on resigned.
    Phillip Davies is one of the handful of Tory MP`s who is willing to label himself `right wing`.
    In terms of diversity his exit from the House of Commons would be bad.
    If Rudd said politically incorrect comments about `the poor` in private she would only be mirroring what most educated MP`s privately think about `the western poor`.
    Parliaments obsession with embracing green taxes that push up energy prices for low income UK groups and ringfencing and increasing the foreign aid budget ahead of money for domestic social care and mental illness projects says it all.
    Boris is in politics for himself but if he left politics it would be a loss as at least he is unpredictable and he would almost certainly replaced by yet another shallow `virtue signaller` whose every public comment is predictable

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,286
    Metatron said:

    Nick Palmer must have mixed emotions about seeing Broxtowe select someone else. He can feel proud of his personal efforts.

    I think Anna Soubry is going to be quite tough to beat.

    I always felt that Nick was going to re-take the seat at GE15. Having gone through that experience my sense is Nick won't be standing again.

    I only fought one general election and that was a very bruising experience. It takes a lot out of you physically and emotionally.
    I don't know know why they aim at reasonable and humane people like Soubry who's clashed with her own party on the EU and welfare. Yet they fail to target MPs with majorities <5,000 from the 'hard right' ... or who have no principles at all:

    Johnson - Uxbridge
    IDS - Chingford
    Davies - Shipley
    Rudd - Hastings

    Rudd's said v. unpleasant things about poor people when she thought she was away from a microphone. Private Eye's published stories on her past business career and no doubt would publish more if she became PM.

    It excludes Milton Keynes South which looks more winnable than MK North. NE Somerset might be winnable if they'd target JRM and his 18th.C policies. It's an ex- (very ex-)coal mining area. </p>
    come on.I do not care much for IDS politics but the one thing one cannot accuse him of is not having principles.His tory leadership took the weird position of being even more hawkish on the Iraq War than Blair which in terms of game theory was daft.He refused to be moved from his Work & Pensions cabinet job in Camerons 2013 reshuffle and later on resigned.
    Phillip Davies is one of the handful of Tory MP`s who is willing to label himself `right wing`.
    In terms of diversity his exit from the House of Commons would be bad.
    If Rudd said politically incorrect comments about `the poor` in private she would only be mirroring what most educated MP`s privately think about `the western poor`.
    Parliaments obsession with embracing green taxes that push up energy prices for low income UK groups and ringfencing and increasing the foreign aid budget ahead of money for domestic social care and mental illness projects says it all.
    Boris is in politics for himself but if he left politics it would be a loss as at least he is unpredictable and he would almost certainly replaced by yet another shallow `virtue signaller` whose every public comment is predictable

    The list excludes many targets where Labour are currently in the process of selecting Candidates such as NE Derbyshire doesnt it?

    Not sure if that explains some of the omissions.

    BTW looks like NE Derbyshire will come down to a straight fight between Bex Bailey on the Right and Chris Peace the Momentum backed Candidate.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,286
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work

    You are making the assumption that Corbyn is rational and his back-office staff are intelligent.

    Hasn't experience taught you that whatever his talent for tapping into raw emotion these are unwise assumptions?
    This is not the complete list - just those targets where PPCs are in place
    Then that's a second puzzling point - Corbyn has said (sensibly under the circumstances) that he's on a permanent election footing and ready to take on the Tories.

    Yet he doesn't have a full slate of candidates in target seats? Very careless.
    New deadline is 31/3/18

    Local CLPs were supposed to have completed by 31/12/17
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097

    Metatron said:

    I don't know know why they aim at reasonable and humane people like Soubry who's clashed with her own party on the EU and welfare. Yet they fail to target MPs with majorities <5,000 from the 'hard right' ... or who have no principles at all:

    Johnson - Uxbridge
    IDS - Chingford
    Davies - Shipley
    Rudd - Hastings

    Rudd's said v. unpleasant things about poor people when she thought she was away from a microphone. Private Eye's published stories on her past business career and no doubt would publish more if she became PM.

    It excludes Milton Keynes South which looks more winnable than MK North. NE Somerset might be winnable if they'd target JRM and his 18th.C policies. It's an ex- (very ex-)coal mining area. </p>
    come on.I do not care much for IDS politics but the one thing one cannot accuse him of is not having principles.His tory leadership took the weird position of being even more hawkish on the Iraq War than Blair which in terms of game theory was daft.He refused to be moved from his Work & Pensions cabinet job in Camerons 2013 reshuffle and later on resigned.
    Phillip Davies is one of the handful of Tory MP`s who is willing to label himself `right wing`.
    In terms of diversity his exit from the House of Commons would be bad.
    If Rudd said politically incorrect comments about `the poor` in private she would only be mirroring what most educated MP`s privately think about `the western poor`.
    Parliaments obsession with embracing green taxes that push up energy prices for low income UK groups and ringfencing and increasing the foreign aid budget ahead of money for domestic social care and mental illness projects says it all.
    Boris is in politics for himself but if he left politics it would be a loss as at least he is unpredictable and he would almost certainly replaced by yet another shallow `virtue signaller` whose every public comment is predictable

    The list excludes many targets where Labour are currently in the process of selecting Candidates such as NE Derbyshire doesnt it?

    Not sure if that explains some of the omissions.

    BTW looks like NE Derbyshire will come down to a straight fight between Bex Bailey on the Right and Chris Peace the Momentum backed Candidate.
    Bex Bailey. Now there’s a name we haven’t heard of for a couple of months...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,286
    Sandpit said:

    Should we even bother with a list of political cartoonists?

    MATT is head and shoulders above the rest
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work

    You are making the assumption that Corbyn is rational and his back-office staff are intelligent.

    Hasn't experience taught you that whatever his talent for tapping into raw emotion these are unwise assumptions?
    This is not the complete list - just those targets where PPCs are in place
    Then that's a second puzzling point - Corbyn has said (sensibly under the circumstances) that he's on a permanent election footing and ready to take on the Tories.

    Yet he doesn't have a full slate of candidates in target seats? Very careless.
    New deadline is 31/3/18

    Local CLPs were supposed to have completed by 31/12/17
    What's the delay? Or were they afraid of more O'Mara and Coad style embarrassments?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,286
    Sandpit said:

    Metatron said:

    I don't know know why they aim at reasonable and humane people like Soubry who's clashed with her own party on the EU and welfare. Yet they fail to target MPs with majorities <5,000 from the 'hard right' ... or who have no principles at all:

    Johnson - Uxbridge
    IDS - Chingford
    Davies - Shipley
    Rudd - Hastings

    Rudd's said v. unpleasant things about poor people when she thought she was away from a microphone. Private Eye's published stories on her past business career and no doubt would publish more if she became PM.

    It excludes Milton Keynes South which looks more winnable than MK North. NE Somerset might be winnable if they'd target JRM and his 18th.C policies. It's an ex- (very ex-)coal mining area. </p>
    come on.I do not care much for IDS politics but the one thing one cannot accuse him of is not having principles.His tory leadership took the weird position of being even more hawkish on the Iraq War than Blair which in terms of game theory was daft.He refused to be moved from his Work & Pensions cabinet job in Camerons 2013 reshuffle and later on resigned.
    Phillip Davies is one of the handful of Tory MP`s who is willing to label himself `right wing`.
    In terms of diversity his exit from the House of Commons would be bad.
    If Rudd said politically incorrect comments about `the poor` in private she would only be mirroring what most educated MP`s privately think about `the western poor`.
    Parliaments obsession with embracing green taxes that push up energy prices for low income UK groups and ringfencing and increasing the foreign aid budget ahead of money for domestic social care and mental illness projects says it all.
    Boris is in politics for himself but if he left politics it would be a loss as at least he is unpredictable and he would almost certainly replaced by yet another shallow `virtue signaller` whose every public comment is predictable

    The list excludes many targets where Labour are currently in the process of selecting Candidates such as NE Derbyshire doesnt it?

    Not sure if that explains some of the omissions.

    BTW looks like NE Derbyshire will come down to a straight fight between Bex Bailey on the Right and Chris Peace the Momentum backed Candidate.
    Bex Bailey. Now there’s a name we haven’t heard of for a couple of months...
    Indeed but i am on my best behaviour tonight
  • On topic, suggest that PBers with some influence in Labour Party circles (you know who you are) help Nick P xMP to find a less-marginal, winnable seat.

    Off topic, proud that my Mayor, Jenny Durkan has got today's Womens March in Seattle off to a great start despite less-than-appealing weather.

    Also off topic, am highly dubious re: the federal govt shutdown. For one thing, reckon it's going over like lead balloon with majority of Americans across political spectrum. For another, wish that IF congressional Dems want a shutdown, they'd pick some issue OTHER than immigration to make a stand - something, anything that wouild help us in rust belts and rural districts where Dems used to win national elections, areas where urban Dem elitism & ID politicshas hollowed out former Dem voting strength.
  • Ahem, I meant a MORE winnable seat for NPxMP
  • Which is probably NOT West Tyrone
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,286
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work

    You are making the assumption that Corbyn is rational and his back-office staff are intelligent.

    Hasn't experience taught you that whatever his talent for tapping into raw emotion these are unwise assumptions?
    This is not the complete list - just those targets where PPCs are in place
    Then that's a second puzzling point - Corbyn has said (sensibly under the circumstances) that he's on a permanent election footing and ready to take on the Tories.

    Yet he doesn't have a full slate of candidates in target seats? Very careless.
    New deadline is 31/3/18

    Local CLPs were supposed to have completed by 31/12/17
    What's the delay? Or were they afraid of more O'Mara and Coad style embarrassments?
    Probably a factor. Although given the Toby Young and Ben Bradley fiascos it would appear the problem is not just a Labour one.

    More likely down to CLPs being bloody useless in a lot of cases.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    edited January 20

    Sandpit said:

    Metatron said:

    come on.I do not care much for IDS politics but the one thing one cannot accuse him of is not having principles.His tory leadership took the weird position of being even more hawkish on the Iraq War than Blair which in terms of game theory was daft.He refused to be moved from his Work & Pensions cabinet job in Camerons 2013 reshuffle and later on resigned.
    Phillip Davies is one of the handful of Tory MP`s who is willing to label himself `right wing`.
    In terms of diversity his exit from the House of Commons would be bad.
    If Rudd said politically incorrect comments about `the poor` in private she would only be mirroring what most educated MP`s privately think about `the western poor`.
    Parliaments obsession with embracing green taxes that push up energy prices for low income UK groups and ringfencing and increasing the foreign aid budget ahead of money for domestic social care and mental illness projects says it all.
    Boris is in politics for himself but if he left politics it would be a loss as at least he is unpredictable and he would almost certainly replaced by yet another shallow `virtue signaller` whose every public comment is predictable

    The list excludes many targets where Labour are currently in the process of selecting Candidates such as NE Derbyshire doesnt it?

    Not sure if that explains some of the omissions.

    BTW looks like NE Derbyshire will come down to a straight fight between Bex Bailey on the Right and Chris Peace the Momentum backed Candidate.
    Bex Bailey. Now there’s a name we haven’t heard of for a couple of months...
    Indeed but i am on my best behaviour tonight
    I just hope that:
    A. She’s okay and getting sufficient support and counselling.
    B. The party are taking the investigation into her allegation (and others) seriously.

    These sorts of things have been an issue for all parties over the years, but they all owe it to their supporters that the most serious abuses are dealt with properly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    edited January 20

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Friendly bet (FATJUGS):

    I am happy to offer any single puntah an evens-bet that the Pound-Sterling will hit $1.50 some time this year*: Usual stake is £50. Any takers?

    * A Wee-timmy-tedious bet but it will fund this site.

    How about a bet on sterling at the end of the year?
    I said last year on PB that $1.40 was more likely than the $1.20 being widely predicted - which at the time was definitely a minority view. We are almost there, and remarkably without the FTSE having dipped correspondingly. It remains my view that the dip in the £ post-referendum was overdone, and the $ is also likely to fall medium term. I wouldn't however put money on $1.50 until the fog clears on Brexit, which is more likely 2019 than this year.
    It’s also a bet on the US$, and with all the political uncertainty there and the mid-term elections in November, a spike in cable in the pound’s favour at the end of the year can’t be ruled out either. $1.50 is definitely within the realm of possibility.
    "a spike in cable"

    LibDems gonna stick the ice-pick in him?
    LOL, hopefully if they want to remain relevant after Brexit.

    The other cable is finance slang for the $/£ exchange rate - apparently it was the first message sent down the first undersea cable across the Atlantic that enabled London & NY to communicate in real time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    edited January 20

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work

    You are making the assumption that Corbyn is rational and his back-office staff are intelligent.

    Hasn't experience taught you that whatever his talent for tapping into raw emotion these are unwise assumptions?
    This is not the complete list - just those targets where PPCs are in place
    Then that's a second puzzling point - Corbyn has said (sensibly under the circumstances) that he's on a permanent election footing and ready to take on the Tories.

    Yet he doesn't have a full slate of candidates in target seats? Very careless.
    New deadline is 31/3/18

    Local CLPs were supposed to have completed by 31/12/17
    What's the delay? Or were they afraid of more O'Mara and Coad style embarrassments?
    Probably a factor. Although given the Toby Young and Ben Bradley fiascos it would appear the problem is not just a Labour one.

    More likely down to CLPs being bloody useless in a lot of cases.
    Plenty of time, but good idea to get PPCs getting under the skin of their new constituencies. Incidentally, I see Momentum now claims a membership of 35 000, so approx 6% of Labour members, nowhere near a plurality, albeit a fairly vocal minority. Something to bear in mind when considering odds of various potential Jezza successors:

  • ALL parties experience difficulties with unsuitable candidates. Which can often be exacerbated when a party is a) unprepared for an election (or less prepared than they'd like to be; and/or b) does better when the votes are counted than was believed possible, by winning seats it (and just about everyone else) thought they'd lose.

    Just one example: in 1932, Democrats in Washington State, with FDR and Hoover atop the national tickets, won a smashing victory, and went from a weak minority to a strong majority in the state legislature. Unfortunately, one Dem elected to state house in a formerly safe Republican district turned out to have been convicted of statutory rape, an "infamous felony" that rendered him ineligible to serve (or even be a voter). So first act of the new WA House of Representatives upon organization, was expelling this guy.

    Another problem for Democrats that session, was many were elected who had NOT expected to have to spend the first weeks of 1933 serving in the legislature and living in Olympia - they had to jam themselve four-or-more deep in whatever rooms they could find AND afford.
This discussion has been closed.