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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rebeller Italia. The next problem coming down the tracks for t

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited January 21 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rebeller Italia. The next problem coming down the tracks for the EU

The EU is already wrestling with Brexit and with a renaissance of illiberalism in Poland and Hungary challenging its long-held views of European values.  What it really doesn’t want is a third front.  Italy seems set to disoblige.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,695
    First. And I actually read the article which was very interesting.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,523
    edited January 21
    Excellent article. I tried to understand the Italian electoral system a week back and gave up in confusion. With that many complexities there should be excwllent betting opportunities somewhere.

    Edit - my own bet is to lay 5 star movement to win most deputies...
    I’m hoping given the uncertainties, potential for inefficient vote share and maybe a PD revival - that 1.6 is too short. (Betfair).

    Dyor
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Very informative article Alastair, thanks. Still have the feeling that absolutely anything could happen at this election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    I agree, a really good article.
    What I don't understand is why you would elect two chambers using essentially the same system, at the same time. What's the point ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    England approaching respectability, but I think they're still favourites to lose.
    Australia have the benefit of not having to work out a batting method on a difficult pitch during their innings, England having done the hard work for them.

    Excellent from Buttler, though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    24 off the over !
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Great batting from Woakes (53*) and especially Buttler with 100* set up an intriguing match in Sydney.
    England finish 302/6, which didn’t look at all likely when they were 107/4 after 23 overs.
    Aus 1.9 on Betfair to chase the runs, value seems to be with the visitors at that price.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/event/28549146/multi-market?marketIds=1.139124398&marketIds=1.139124400
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    Incredibly welll deserved century off the last ball.
    Are those last two overs enough to turn the game ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    edited January 21
    Nigelb said:

    Incredibly welll deserved century off the last ball.
    Are those last two overs enough to turn the game ?

    38 off the last twelve (legitimate) balls.

    Even allowing for Cummins' horror show, that's seriously good batting by Woakes and Buttler.

    Edit - don't forget either that Australia have got to win or lose the series - so they'll be under heavy pressure as well to score fast.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Oh, and props to @Peter_the_Punter for pointing out the 6/4 on England last night.
  • Surely the question is: Is Italy really a country? Based upon history I would say no: England and The Republic share linguistical and cultural similarities but we are separate nations.

    That said: It is for the various Italian tribes to decide. The choices are there and good-luck finding a worthwhile one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    Australia's other issue is the lack of depth in their batting. England had players with first class centuries from 1-9 and somebody with a Test fifty at ten. By contrast Australia have somebody with one top-level fifty in the last four years at 7, and then the bowlers.

    So if their top four don't get the score to 250, game over.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Well the Aussies trying to put the runs up early, and Warner makes the mistake.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. Immigration and the EU/Germany do make for a potentially bitter cocktail in Italian politics.

    In unrelated news, after a short hiatus (rights change) my fantastic comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric is back up. Think Blackadder meets Lord of the Rings: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Sir-Edric-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200
    I’m concerned at following Mr RF’s line of thought, but is there in fact a case for Italy becoming disunited. IIRC the place was, historically, several, at least, countries, with significantly different cultures.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    King Cole, the Lombardy/Veneto devolution referendum mentioned in the article was different to the Catalonia situation, as it was entirely legal, but there is also an independence movement there. Apparently they're tired of working like Germans to have their taxes shovelled south (especially given the mafia, and maybe migrants too now).

    However, the EU's clear dislike of Catalonia's declaration of independence may have put back that desire for now.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. Immigration and the EU/Germany do make for a potentially bitter cocktail in Italian politics.

    In unrelated news, after a short hiatus (rights change) my fantastic comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric is back up. Think Blackadder meets Lord of the Rings: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Sir-Edric-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/

    Tolkien was the inspiration for Third Position Italian Fascism. Steer clear.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497

    I’m concerned at following Mr RF’s line of thought, but is there in fact a case for Italy becoming disunited. IIRC the place was, historically, several, at least, countries, with significantly different cultures.

    Until 1869 what is now Italy were indeed several different countries including Sicily, the Papal States and Piedmont. Even that was a considerable reduction from what had been in existence (including the famed city republics) before Napoleon simplified things.

    Wouldn't go so far as to say they were different cultures though. There were variations, but not much more than between say, Kent and Yorkshire or Dublin and Kerry or Cardiff and Blaenau Ffestiniog.

    Italy is divided but so is the UK, and so is England within itself. No nation is perfectly homogenous.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    To anyone who followed Mr Punter’s 2.46 on England, you can now back the convicts at 2.64.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    I’m concerned at following Mr RF’s line of thought, but is there in fact a case for Italy becoming disunited. IIRC the place was, historically, several, at least, countries, with significantly different cultures.

    A recent and very readable summary of this thesis is The Pursuit Of Italy:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Pursuit-Italy-History-Regions-Peoples/dp/0141043415

    Whatever you think of the argument, it's a hugely informative book, which I learned loads from.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    Sandpit said:

    To anyone who followed Mr Punter’s 2.46 on England, you can now back the convicts at 2.64.

    I wouldn't back the Aussies at 50-1 after that shot by White.

    They have Finch and Smith. These guys need centuries each. If on of them is out in the next half an hour, game and series is probably pretty much over.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Ace, yes, but Morris Dancer was the inspiration for a 250/1 winning tip, so you know you're getting great value with his book.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,335
    Thank you Alistair for a very interesting article.

    Despite being a founding member Italy has always punched well below its weight in EU affairs. I expect that to continue and the mess/confusion that is Italian politics to continue as well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    To anyone who followed Mr Punter’s 2.46 on England, you can now back the convicts at 2.64.

    I wouldn't back the Aussies at 50-1 after that shot by White.

    They have Finch and Smith. These guys need centuries each. If on of them is out in the next half an hour, game and series is probably pretty much over.
    2.96 now. Agree with you that there’s not a lot of batting depth in the home side.

    Dare I say it but this is looking easy for England.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    edited January 21
    Sounds like a recipe for chaos, it would be fun if less serious.

    Just cannot keep that Berlusconi down either.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Miss Cyclefree, is that a function of their volatile political system, though? Not sure if it's literally true, but a few years ago they'd had more governments than years since WWII.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    Dura_Ace said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. Immigration and the EU/Germany do make for a potentially bitter cocktail in Italian politics.

    In unrelated news, after a short hiatus (rights change) my fantastic comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric is back up. Think Blackadder meets Lord of the Rings: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Sir-Edric-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/

    Tolkien was the inspiration for Third Position Italian Fascism. Steer clear.
    I might need a little detail to know if this comment is a serious one.
  • Back in the 'Nineties t'Economist rated the EU nations in the following order: Germany, France,Italy, and then the UK. Methinks that the lady doth protest too much...!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    ydoethur said:

    I’m concerned at following Mr RF’s line of thought, but is there in fact a case for Italy becoming disunited. IIRC the place was, historically, several, at least, countries, with significantly different cultures.

    Until 1869 what is now Italy were indeed several different countries including Sicily, the Papal States and Piedmont. Even that was a considerable reduction from what had been in existence (including the famed city republics) before Napoleon simplified things.

    Wouldn't go so far as to say they were different cultures though. There were variations, but not much more than between say, Kent and Yorkshire or Dublin and Kerry or Cardiff and Blaenau Ffestiniog.

    Italy is divided but so is the UK, and so is England within itself. No nation is perfectly homogenous.
    Sharing a principal language seems to make things much easier even if historically divided.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,335
    One other point: Italy’s migration crisis is different from Britain’s. Britain is complaining about FoM under EU rules. Italy’s issue is with illegal migration from Libya and other other African countries. The steps taken to reduce pressure on Greece have displaced the problem onto Italy’s shores, as a result of geographical closeness. Spain is also seeing an increase in this sort of migration from the North African coast.

    Italy’s complaint is that its attempts to deal with the humanitarian problem of people dying at sea has resulted in it bearing the brunt of the burden and that the existing EU rules and other international treaties have proved wholly inadequate to dealing with this issue. In this they are probably right. They are also annoyed at the French who have taken steps to stop entry by illegals into France via Ventimiglia, causing problems in that small town - a less publicised version of the same issue faced by France around Calais.

    Mantaining the EU’s external borders will continue to be one of the big issues for the EU for the next few years and, therefore, for countries such as Italy.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. Immigration and the EU/Germany do make for a potentially bitter cocktail in Italian politics.

    In unrelated news, after a short hiatus (rights change) my fantastic comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric is back up. Think Blackadder meets Lord of the Rings: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Sir-Edric-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/

    Tolkien was the inspiration for Third Position Italian Fascism. Steer clear.
    I might need a little detail to know if this comment is a serious one.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/hobbit-camps-fascism-italy

    Fantasy really is worst of all genres. Utterly morally and creatively bankrupt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    Italy has always seemed fascinating to me but for some reason I've never been. I'm planning to holiday there or Greece next year though, so whoever wins can they not destroy the place inside 18 months.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Ace, surely you mean the best of genres? Full of wonder and mirth, and fantastical things.

    Anyway, The Adventures of Sir Edric is very well-rated so do give the reviews a look.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200

    King Cole, the Lombardy/Veneto devolution referendum mentioned in the article was different to the Catalonia situation, as it was entirely legal, but there is also an independence movement there. Apparently they're tired of working like Germans to have their taxes shovelled south (especially given the mafia, and maybe migrants too now).

    However, the EU's clear dislike of Catalonia's declaration of independence may have put back that desire for now.

    Mr D, clearly the Calalonian situation is different from Lombardy etc. AIUI The Catalonian ‘independence’ movement is largely ABC1 driven with very little ‘worker’ support. In most countries such movements have significant blue collar support. It’s a measure of the failure of Plaid Cymru that it has largely been unable to breakthrough in the Valleys.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    edited January 21
    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. Immigration and the EU/Germany do make for a potentially bitter cocktail in Italian politics.

    In unrelated news, after a short hiatus (rights change) my fantastic comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric is back up. Think Blackadder meets Lord of the Rings: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Sir-Edric-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/

    Tolkien was the inspiration for Third Position Italian Fascism. Steer clear.
    I might need a little detail to know if this comment is a serious one.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/hobbit-camps-fascism-italy

    Fantasy really is worst of all genres. Utterly morally and creatively bankrupt.
    What an odd tale. But as over saturated as the genre is by high fantasy, it's very silly indeed to condemn an entire genre because of dislike of a sub genre within it. Particularly when, shocker, attitudes to morality and creativity levels are wildly different even among those that remain within a medieval fantasy generic setting.

    That said, even as it is my favourite genre, the casual attitude to slaughter and autocratic societies beholden to single leader has long been one that would be easy to make very dark. Indeed, some good works do just that openly but exploring the underbelly. But the truth is its hard to make truly complex societies from scratch, so you use archetypes. And delving into actually realistic mundane politics rather than simplistic states is boring - I had to cut 20000 words from a story, centred around political factions arguing constitutional matters, for just such a reason.

    It is intesting that most fantasy stories, even those involving societies of millions, have governance and judicial structures more akin to mere tribes.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,523
    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. Immigration and the EU/Germany do make for a potentially bitter cocktail in Italian politics.

    In unrelated news, after a short hiatus (rights change) my fantastic comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric is back up. Think Blackadder meets Lord of the Rings: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Sir-Edric-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/

    Tolkien was the inspiration for Third Position Italian Fascism. Steer clear.
    I might need a little detail to know if this comment is a serious one.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/hobbit-camps-fascism-italy

    Fantasy really is worst of all genres. Utterly morally and creatively bankrupt.
    Wow that’s really weird. From memory Tolkien rejected any sense that LOTR was allegorical and said if it were meant to model history then he would have had Sauron defeated but Saruman taking over...

    Fantasy did go down a bit of a dead end with LOTR knock offs IMO. But the likes of Joe Abercrombie, George Martin et al. have brought more realism and rejected a good guy/bad guy dichotomy which I enjoy.

    And then you have a genius like Terry Pratchett...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,335

    Miss Cyclefree, is that a function of their volatile political system, though? Not sure if it's literally true, but a few years ago they'd had more governments than years since WWII.

    Well, in the past Italy had a lot of issues to deal with: keeping the Communists out of power, the Mafia, the Brigate Rosse and attacks on senior politicians like Aldo Moro. Then there were all the issues arising from the uncovering of corruption amongst its political and business class - Operazione Mani Pulite. Despite all this at times the economy did well.

    Italy has thrived in spite of its political class not because of it. It has been very pro-EU in part because it saw that institution as infinitely more capable than its homegrown politics. But it has never proved a counter-weight to the Frnco-German alliance and has never really had any ideas of its own. For very many years the Christian Democrats were only really interested in maintaining their power and benefiting in whatever way they could from that power, including obtaining for themselves and their clients the benefits of EU membership, patronage and money.

    Clientilismo is at the heart of Italian politics. The strains now are in part because there are less goodies to share around and more demands to be satisfied, including those of migrants/refugees ending up in Italy purely as a result of geography.
  • I'm cancelling my subscription of The Times.



    PS - Congratulations to Morris Dancer for his job at The Times. :lol:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497

    I'm cancelling my subscription of The Times.

    PS - Congratulations to Morris Dancer for his job at The Times. :lol:

    That's very cavalier of you Mr Eagles.

    Anyway, I have a mighty three manual name with my name on it. Have a good morning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    rkrkrk said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. Immigration and the EU/Germany do make for a potentially bitter cocktail in Italian politics.

    In unrelated news, after a short hiatus (rights change) my fantastic comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric is back up. Think Blackadder meets Lord of the Rings: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Sir-Edric-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/

    Tolkien was the inspiration for Third Position Italian Fascism. Steer clear.
    I might need a little detail to know if this comment is a serious one.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/hobbit-camps-fascism-italy

    Fantasy really is worst of all genres. Utterly morally and creatively bankrupt.
    Wow that’s really weird. From memory Tolkien rejected any sense that LOTR was allegorical and said if it were meant to model history then he would have had Sauron defeated but Saruman taking over...

    Fantasy did go down a bit of a dead end with LOTR knock offs IMO. But the likes of Joe Abercrombie, George Martin et al. have brought more realism and rejected a good guy/bad guy dichotomy which I enjoy.

    And then you have a genius like Terry Pratchett...
    Those condemning particular genres should remember Sturgeon's Law:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_law

    (I tend to put it at 95% ...)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    England need to get Finch. Oh got him.
    On topic the big problem for Italy is economic. Their growth has been abysmal since the crash. The ECB has really not helped and they are fed up.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Yes, Finch gone, trapped in front!

    England’s to lose now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, Finch gone, trapped in front!

    England’s to lose now.

    Smith still a danger but who will match Buttler and Woakes?
  • Sandpit said:

    Yes, Finch gone, trapped in front!

    England’s to lose now.

    Losing Plunkett is a blow which helps Australia.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    rkrkrk said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. Immigration and the EU/Germany do make for a potentially bitter cocktail in Italian politics.

    In unrelated news, after a short hiatus (rights change) my fantastic comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric is back up. Think Blackadder meets Lord of the Rings: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Sir-Edric-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/

    Tolkien was the inspiration for Third Position Italian Fascism. Steer clear.
    I might need a little detail to know if this comment is a serious one.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/hobbit-camps-fascism-italy

    Fantasy really is worst of all genres. Utterly morally and creatively bankrupt.
    Wow that’s really weird. From memory Tolkien rejected any sense that LOTR was allegorical and said if it were meant to model history then he would have had Sauron defeated but Saruman taking over...

    Fantasy did go down a bit of a dead end with LOTR knock offs IMO. But the likes of Joe Abercrombie, George Martin et al. have brought more realism and rejected a good guy/bad guy dichotomy which I enjoy.

    And then you have a genius like Terry Pratchett...
    Tolkien's foreword to later editions of LoTR state he preferred the term applicability to a suggestion it was directly allegorical. That is the themes are applicable, but are not a retelling of historical events.

    I think with fantasy popular consciousness runs some way behind the genres development, in the way I am told until a couple of breakout dark hits like Watchmen and the Dark Knight Returns popular thought considered comics to be more like Adam West's Batman. But I'm not a comic reader so cannot be sure of that.

    But modern fantasy is indeed more varied in tome and setting, and morality, than people think. I do find it harder to read something of deliberately simple morality like some David Eddings for how little the heroes care about slaughtering their enemies.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172
    edited January 21
    rkrkrk said:



    And then you have a genius like Terry Pratchett...

    He was a genius in that he wrote the same four books over and over again; getting paid each time.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. rkrkrk, it was the First Law Trilogy that really got me back into fantasy. Top stuff.

    Mr. Eagles, I wish.
  • On topic, excellent piece as usual.

    Chapeau for the Five Star/Silk and Steel reference.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, Finch gone, trapped in front!

    England’s to lose now.

    Smith still a danger but who will match Buttler and Woakes?
    That last half hour of England’s innings was some of the best batting I’ve seen all winter.

    After Smith they’ve not really got a lot of batting left, Finch was a huge wicket, he was starting to swing it a bit and look quite dangerous.
  • Nigel Farage is in talks about returning to frontline British politics with the launch of a new pro-Brexit movement if Ukip’s leader Henry Bolton is forced to resign.

    Farage has spoken to friends, including his financial backer Arron Banks, about forming a breakaway party if Bolton, 54, loses a vote of confidence today at a special meeting of Ukip’s national executive committee.

    Banks and Farage met for dinner to discuss the plans on January 11, only a few days after the committee began an investigation into Bolton’s private life.....

    ....It is understood that an announcement on the new movement, which does not yet have a name, could be made as soon as this week if Ukip loses its fourth leader in 16 months. The organisation is expected to be modelled on the structure of the Conservative Party with local associations around the country to give the movement a reach that Ukip lacks. Focus groups have been convened to determine what kinds of policies will appeal.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/nigel-farage-may-launch-new-brexit-party-vmx8573lg
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    Dura_Ace said:

    rkrkrk said:



    And then you have a genius like Terry Pratchett...

    He was a genius in that he wrote the same four books over and over again; getting paid each time.

    Hey, even if that were true, 4 books is more than most people can do!

    And it's clearly not true. I can think of just one sequence of the books, containing the same characters, which are vastly different. Guards guards, men at arms, feet of clay, jingo, the fifth elephant, night watch, thud. All the same principle cast, but very different in plot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, Finch gone, trapped in front!

    England’s to lose now.

    Losing Plunkett is a blow which helps Australia.
    Finch chancing his arm against Rashid has pretty well negated that. Australia showing again that they don't know how to pace a one day innings.

    Meanwhile, another Yorkshireman reaches the Australian Open quarter final...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. Immigration and the EU/Germany do make for a potentially bitter cocktail in Italian politics.

    In unrelated news, after a short hiatus (rights change) my fantastic comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric is back up. Think Blackadder meets Lord of the Rings: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Sir-Edric-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/

    Tolkien was the inspiration for Third Position Italian Fascism. Steer clear.
    I might need a little detail to know if this comment is a serious one.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/hobbit-camps-fascism-italy

    Fantasy really is worst of all genres. Utterly morally and creatively bankrupt.
    Wow that’s really weird. From memory Tolkien rejected any sense that LOTR was allegorical and said if it were meant to model history then he would have had Sauron defeated but Saruman taking over...

    Fantasy did go down a bit of a dead end with LOTR knock offs IMO. But the likes of Joe Abercrombie, George Martin et al. have brought more realism and rejected a good guy/bad guy dichotomy which I enjoy.

    And then you have a genius like Terry Pratchett...
    Those condemning particular genres should remember Sturgeon's Law:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_law

    (I tend to put it at 95% ...)
    Indeed. I'm not a fan of Danielle Steele, but does that mean the genre is terrible just because she is hugely popular?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,695
    James Cleverly is reviewing the papers on Marr and comes across very wooden in my opinion.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    edited January 21
    Cyclefree said:

    Clientilismo is at the heart of Italian politics. The strains now are in part because there are less goodies to share around and more demands to be satisfied, including those of migrants/refugees ending up in Italy purely as a result of geography.

    Withe the departure of the UK from the EU - its second largest net contributor - there are going to be far less goodies to share around its memebers going into the 2020's. That is going to be hard for a good proportion of remaining members. Whether what remains can be divided up so as to prevent mutterings of "what's the point?" is one of the great challenges for Brussels in the next decade.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    Australia well ahead of where England were at this stage. This is not over.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Aussies back favourites at 1.8.

    Have we all got both teams odds-against?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281

    Focus groups have been convened to determine what kinds of policies will appeal.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/nigel-farage-may-launch-new-brexit-party-vmx8573lg

    Surely they should know what policies they believe in, rather than focus group what to claim to believe in.

    Still, the WEP leader got a spot on the front page with other leaders in one paper, so why not UKIP part 2 being front line straight away I guess.

    On names, the obvious joke is to call it en March. Proven success
  • DavidL said:

    Australia well ahead of where England were at this stage. This is not over.

    Yup, I'm backing the convicts.
  • Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, Finch gone, trapped in front!

    England’s to lose now.

    Losing Plunkett is a blow which helps Australia.
    Finch chancing his arm against Rashid has pretty well negated that. Australia showing again that they don't know how to pace a one day innings.

    Meanwhile, another Yorkshireman reaches the Australian Open quarter final...
    Is he really a Yorkshireman?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    Cyclefree said:

    Clientilismo is at the heart of Italian politics. The strains now are in part because there are less goodies to share around and more demands to be satisfied, including those of migrants/refugees ending up in Italy purely as a result of geography.

    Withe the departure of the UK from the EU - its second largest net contributor - there are going to be far less goodies to share around its memebers going into the 2020's. That is going to be hard for a good proportion of remaining members. Whether what remains can be divided up so as to prevent mutterings of "what's the point?" is one of the great challenges for Brussels in the next decade.
    Depends on how much we end up,paying for any deal, though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    The latest poll has Five Star projected to be the largest party on 27%, with the governing centre left PD second on 24% and Berlusconi's Forza Italia third in 16%.

    https://www.termometropolitico.it/1284708_sondaggi-elettorali-19-gennaio.html

    Even though Berlusconi's centre right block will likely win most seats as the article suggests Berlusconi is barred from office so I would expect Luigi Di Maio, as Five Star leader and thus leader of the largest party in the lower chamber to become PM with Berlusconi playing kingmaker in the background and pulling many of the strings of the new governmemt
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    DavidL said:

    Australia well ahead of where England were at this stage. This is not over.

    Yup, I'm backing the convicts.
    The two overs Root must still bowl could be crucial.

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 265

    Cyclefree said:

    Clientilismo is at the heart of Italian politics. The strains now are in part because there are less goodies to share around and more demands to be satisfied, including those of migrants/refugees ending up in Italy purely as a result of geography.

    Withe the departure of the UK from the EU - its second largest net contributor - there are going to be far less goodies to share around its memebers going into the 2020's. That is going to be hard for a good proportion of remaining members. Whether what remains can be divided up so as to prevent mutterings of "what's the point?" is one of the great challenges for Brussels in the next decade.
    "Clientilismo" is at the heart of pretty much all political systems - think about the UK with pensioner handouts, tax breaks, fuel duty freeze for cars, child benefit, just as all systems are under pressure this idea that Italy is somehow shady and the UK is simplistic.

    The concept that handouts fuel EU enthusiasm was popped a bit in the UK referendum Wales and Cornwall both of whom received some big funding (esp Cornwall) had some big LEAVE votes, whilst big contributor areas (London for eg) was big REMAIN I think you are being a bit naive
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Clientilismo is at the heart of Italian politics. The strains now are in part because there are less goodies to share around and more demands to be satisfied, including those of migrants/refugees ending up in Italy purely as a result of geography.

    Withe the departure of the UK from the EU - its second largest net contributor - there are going to be far less goodies to share around its memebers going into the 2020's. That is going to be hard for a good proportion of remaining members. Whether what remains can be divided up so as to prevent mutterings of "what's the point?" is one of the great challenges for Brussels in the next decade.
    Depends on how much we end up,paying for any deal, though.
    It is still going to lead to a shortfall in short order.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, Finch gone, trapped in front!

    England’s to lose now.

    Losing Plunkett is a blow which helps Australia.
    Finch chancing his arm against Rashid has pretty well negated that. Australia showing again that they don't know how to pace a one day innings.

    Meanwhile, another Yorkshireman reaches the Australian Open quarter final...
    Is he really a Yorkshireman?
    Just about good enough, I think.
    :smile:

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    DavidL said:

    Australia well ahead of where England were at this stage. This is not over.

    They still need closer to 7 than 6 an over though.

    Our last ten overs were 102/0.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Australia well ahead of where England were at this stage. This is not over.

    Yup, I'm backing the convicts.
    The two overs Root must still bowl could be crucial.

    He’ll come back when they get a wicket. Of course if they don’t...
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 265

    Nigel Farage is in talks about returning to frontline British politics with the launch of a new pro-Brexit movement if Ukip’s leader Henry Bolton is forced to resign.

    Farage has spoken to friends, including his financial backer Arron Banks, about forming a breakaway party if Bolton, 54, loses a vote of confidence today at a special meeting of Ukip’s national executive committee.

    Banks and Farage met for dinner to discuss the plans on January 11, only a few days after the committee began an investigation into Bolton’s private life.....

    ....It is understood that an announcement on the new movement, which does not yet have a name, could be made as soon as this week if Ukip loses its fourth leader in 16 months. The organisation is expected to be modelled on the structure of the Conservative Party with local associations around the country to give the movement a reach that Ukip lacks. Focus groups have been convened to determine what kinds of policies will appeal.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/nigel-farage-may-launch-new-brexit-party-vmx8573lg

    I think they will really really struggle.......I dont think Farage is the electoral dynamite he is made out to be......otherwise he would be an MP - the Tory tanks are well and truly on their lawn
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200

    Nigel Farage is in talks about returning to frontline British politics with the launch of a new pro-Brexit movement if Ukip’s leader Henry Bolton is forced to resign.

    Farage has spoken to friends, including his financial backer Arron Banks, about forming a breakaway party if Bolton, 54, loses a vote of confidence today at a special meeting of Ukip’s national executive committee.

    Banks and Farage met for dinner to discuss the plans on January 11, only a few days after the committee began an investigation into Bolton’s private life.....

    ....It is understood that an announcement on the new movement, which does not yet have a name, could be made as soon as this week if Ukip loses its fourth leader in 16 months. The organisation is expected to be modelled on the structure of the Conservative Party with local associations around the country to give the movement a reach that Ukip lacks. Focus groups have been convened to determine what kinds of policies will appeal.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/nigel-farage-may-launch-new-brexit-party-vmx8573lg

    I think they will really really struggle.......I dont think Farage is the electoral dynamite he is made out to be......otherwise he would be an MP - the Tory tanks are well and truly on their lawn
    Perhaps we could a reverse ferret on Tories for Corbyn!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281

    Nigel Farage is in talks about returning to frontline British politics with the launch of a new pro-Brexit movement if Ukip’s leader Henry Bolton is forced to resign.

    Farage has spoken to friends, including his financial backer Arron Banks, about forming a breakaway party if Bolton, 54, loses a vote of confidence today at a special meeting of Ukip’s national executive committee.

    Banks and Farage met for dinner to discuss the plans on January 11, only a few days after the committee began an investigation into Bolton’s private life.....

    ....It is understood that an announcement on the new movement, which does not yet have a name, could be made as soon as this week if Ukip loses its fourth leader in 16 months. The organisation is expected to be modelled on the structure of the Conservative Party with local associations around the country to give the movement a reach that Ukip lacks. Focus groups have been convened to determine what kinds of policies will appeal.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/nigel-farage-may-launch-new-brexit-party-vmx8573lg

    I think they will really really struggle.......I dont think Farage is the electoral dynamite he is made out to be......otherwise he would be an MP - the Tory tanks are well and truly on their lawn
    Farage seems to have been the right man for the right time, for all his flaws and inability to win a seat (albeit the Tories may have broken the law to beat him the last time), but though as David H pointed out the other day there is a space for ukip or equivalent to capture support, it just doesn't seem like he's the one to do it . It's not a case of the party being chaotic without him, he seems just as responsible for that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    edited January 21

    Nigel Farage is in talks about returning to frontline British politics with the launch of a new pro-Brexit movement if Ukip’s leader Henry Bolton is forced to resign.

    Farage has spoken to friends, including his financial backer Arron Banks, about forming a breakaway party if Bolton, 54, loses a vote of confidence today at a special meeting of Ukip’s national executive committee.

    Banks and Farage met for dinner to discuss the plans on January 11, only a few days after the committee began an investigation into Bolton’s private life.....

    ....It is understood that an announcement on the new movement, which does not yet have a name, could be made as soon as this week if Ukip loses its fourth leader in 16 months. The organisation is expected to be modelled on the structure of the Conservative Party with local associations around the country to give the movement a reach that Ukip lacks. Focus groups have been convened to determine what kinds of policies will appeal.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/nigel-farage-may-launch-new-brexit-party-vmx8573lg

    I think they will really really struggle.......I dont think Farage is the electoral dynamite he is made out to be......otherwise he would be an MP - the Tory tanks are well and truly on their lawn
    If they want to challenge the Conservatives, they’ll need to make sure all those local associations have snooker tables and cheap beer. ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    Tina Brown on Marr says there is a strong possibility Macron could be re elected.

    Marr's recorded interview with Macron on now.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, Finch gone, trapped in front!

    England’s to lose now.

    Losing Plunkett is a blow which helps Australia.
    Finch chancing his arm against Rashid has pretty well negated that. Australia showing again that they don't know how to pace a one day innings.

    Meanwhile, another Yorkshireman reaches the Australian Open quarter final...
    Is he really a Yorkshireman?
    Just about good enough, I think.
    :smile:

    To confirm his Yorkshireness he needs to front this campaign.

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641
    Great stuff @AlastairMeeks .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Eagles, I think it's bad timing for Farage. He should wait until at least transition begins.

    Mr. HYUFD, good, backed Five Star with a small sum to be the largest party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116

    Nigel Farage is in talks about returning to frontline British politics with the launch of a new pro-Brexit movement if Ukip’s leader Henry Bolton is forced to resign.

    Farage has spoken to friends, including his financial backer Arron Banks, about forming a breakaway party if Bolton, 54, loses a vote of confidence today at a special meeting of Ukip’s national executive committee.

    Banks and Farage met for dinner to discuss the plans on January 11, only a few days after the committee began an investigation into Bolton’s private life.....

    ....It is understood that an announcement on the new movement, which does not yet have a name, could be made as soon as this week if Ukip loses its fourth leader in 16 months. The organisation is expected to be modelled on the structure of the Conservative Party with local associations around the country to give the movement a reach that Ukip lacks. Focus groups have been convened to determine what kinds of policies will appeal.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/nigel-farage-may-launch-new-brexit-party-vmx8573lg

    I think they will really really struggle.......I dont think Farage is the electoral dynamite he is made out to be......otherwise he would be an MP - the Tory tanks are well and truly on their lawn
    The other bookend to Remoaners.

    But whilst there might be some prepared to die in a ditch to rejoin the EU, how many will want to do the same to reopen Brexit - "For A Few Billions More"?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    HYUFD said:

    Tina Brown on Marr says there is a strong possibility Macron could be re elected.

    Marr's recorded interview with Macron on now.

    Interesting Atlantic article on Macron:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/01/macron-trump-economics/549944/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    edited January 21

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, Finch gone, trapped in front!

    England’s to lose now.

    Losing Plunkett is a blow which helps Australia.
    Finch chancing his arm against Rashid has pretty well negated that. Australia showing again that they don't know how to pace a one day innings.

    Meanwhile, another Yorkshireman reaches the Australian Open quarter final...
    Is he really a Yorkshireman?
    Just about good enough, I think.
    :smile:

    To confirm his Yorkshireness he needs to front this campaign.

    Do I misremember, but weren't you sent to work in Manchester.... ?
    :wink:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, Finch gone, trapped in front!

    England’s to lose now.

    Losing Plunkett is a blow which helps Australia.
    Finch chancing his arm against Rashid has pretty well negated that. Australia showing again that they don't know how to pace a one day innings.

    Meanwhile, another Yorkshireman reaches the Australian Open quarter final...
    Is he really a Yorkshireman?
    Just about good enough, I think.
    :smile:

    To confirm his Yorkshireness he needs to front this campaign.

    Do I misremember, but weren't you sent to work in Manchester.... ?
    Maybe he drops his shite at work?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    England sneak a Root over with no damage. Australia really should have gone for him.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, Finch gone, trapped in front!

    England’s to lose now.

    Losing Plunkett is a blow which helps Australia.
    Finch chancing his arm against Rashid has pretty well negated that. Australia showing again that they don't know how to pace a one day innings.

    Meanwhile, another Yorkshireman reaches the Australian Open quarter final...
    Is he really a Yorkshireman?
    Just about good enough, I think.
    :smile:

    To confirm his Yorkshireness he needs to front this campaign.

    Do I misremember, but weren't you sent to work in Manchester.... ?
    :wink:
    I've been working in Manchester since 2011.

    I'm like an 18th Century missionary civilising the heathen natives.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 1,851
    edited January 21
    If I am next to die in an
    ambulance,I will do so with a smile on my face.The Tories really the stupid party.They cannot see they are killing off 3 old Tories for every 1 old Labourite like me.The Tories are killing off their own voters!
    Watch out for a Tory down-tick,a considerable one were we to have a bad flu epidemic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited January 21
    Macron says any bespoke deal for Britain should respect the single market and will not see full access to it for the UK without a budget contribution and respect for the 4 freedoms. Any deal for the City will depend on what the UK puts on the table. He also says he interprets the Brexit vote as a vote from the losers of globalisation and the middle and working classes and the old and there was not enough explanation of how to improve it. Perhaps the UK government was too free market without enough regulation, although Macron says he believes in the free market and market economy it needs regulation. He also wants more sovereignty, unity and democracy in the EU.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    edited January 21
    A few good overs with the ball there for England. Up above 7 an over needed now, but the convicts 1.78 to make the runs.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172

    Nigel Farage is in talks about returning to frontline British politics with the launch of a new pro-Brexit movement if Ukip’s leader Henry Bolton is forced to resign.

    He can call it "The New Party" and Brexit will have finally reached its spiritual home.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200

    If I am next to die in an
    ambulance,I will do so with a smile on my face.The Tories really the stupid party.They cannot see they are killing off 3 old Tories for every 1 old Labourite like me.The Tories are killing off their own voters!
    Watch out for a Tory down-tick,a considerable one were we to have a bad flu epidemic.

    Reminds me of the Orangeman who converted to Catholicism on his deathbed.

    When asked why he said better one of theirs should die than a Loyalist Orangeman!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, Finch gone, trapped in front!

    England’s to lose now.

    Losing Plunkett is a blow which helps Australia.
    Finch chancing his arm against Rashid has pretty well negated that. Australia showing again that they don't know how to pace a one day innings.

    Meanwhile, another Yorkshireman reaches the Australian Open quarter final...
    Is he really a Yorkshireman?
    Just about good enough, I think.
    :smile:

    To confirm his Yorkshireness he needs to front this campaign.

    Do I misremember, but weren't you sent to work in Manchester.... ?
    :wink:
    I've been working in Manchester since 2011.

    I'm like an 18th Century missionary civilising the heathen natives.
    Totally get it...
    Just that the campaign message you endorse might have been unfortunately misunderstood....

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    F1: A month and five days until the first test. I think the first car reveals will be in a couple of weeks. The halo will be new, and I can't remember if they finally decided whether to keep or axe the shark fins. I believe the T-wings (coat-hangers at the back of the fins) are being axed.

    We'll also have a ridiculous number of compounds, seven in 2018, with the hypersoft and super-hard (ahem) joining the current five dry compounds.

    France is back on the calendar and, somewhat worryingly, the US is yet to be confirmed. Murmurings that Vietnam will be added in the near future (don't get excited. It'll probably be a shitty street circuit).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    Mr. Eagles, I think it's bad timing for Farage. He should wait until at least transition begins.

    Mr. HYUFD, good, backed Five Star with a small sum to be the largest party.

    Five Star are likely to be the largest party and the centre right the largest coalition, so the dealmaking between Di Maio and Berlusconi will be key as to how the new government is formed
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    HYUFD said:

    He also wants more sovereignty, unity and democracy in the EU.

    How about just two of the three?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. HYUFD, I hope Di Maio are a party that really likes cats, rather than Maoists.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    F1: A month and five days until the first test. I think the first car reveals will be in a couple of weeks. The halo will be new, and I can't remember if they finally decided whether to keep or axe the shark fins. I believe the T-wings (coat-hangers at the back of the fins) are being axed.

    We'll also have a ridiculous number of compounds, seven in 2018, with the hypersoft and super-hard (ahem) joining the current five dry compounds.

    France is back on the calendar and, somewhat worryingly, the US is yet to be confirmed. Murmurings that Vietnam will be added in the near future (don't get excited. It'll probably be a shitty street circuit).

    The shark wings and big fins are both out.
    https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/technical/2018/1/what-are-the-new-f1-technical-rules-for-2018-.html
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,014
    edited January 21
    Interesting article on a commonly neglected theme, thank Alastair.

    Couple of comments. Italy is actually traditionally fed up, despite its cheerful reputation - polls comparing levels of national contentment have usually shown it near the bottom of the developed country lead. That gives fertile ground for snake oil salesmen, a description which Berlusconi arguably fits and 5 Star certainly fits.

    5 Star in particular are completely unpredictable - they will adopt whatever policies come into their heads as popular and then drop them again - the Euro referendum idea is a good example. This does mean they are potentially up for deals, but they're unstable partners. Berlusconi, for all his faults, is more attuned to stable government, and a centre-right minority government with some sort of 5 Star deal by a Berlusconi ally looks conceivable.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    England need wickets.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    9 off that over....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    McDonnell says he regards Macron as articulate and a man of the centre left but too sympathetic to the market economy for him but he does like Macron's language on how neoliberalism has alienated many
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172
    edited January 21
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    rkrkrk said:



    And then you have a genius like Terry Pratchett...

    He was a genius in that he wrote the same four books over and over again; getting paid each time.

    Hey, even if that were true, 4 books is more than most people can do!

    And it's clearly not true. I can think of just one sequence of the books, containing the same characters, which are vastly different. Guards guards, men at arms, feet of clay, jingo, the fifth elephant, night watch, thud. All the same principle cast, but very different in plot.
    I stole the aperçu from my wife's friend's husband who is Something In Publishing and said it at dinner. I've only ever read a couple of TP's works and was that of necessity due to being confined on a warship without a desperately well stocked library. I recall one was Men at Arms and the cover got ripped off for use as a shithouse shinpad.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    edited January 21
    Tennis, don't follow it much any more but good to see Kyle Edmund reach the quarters of the Australian Open: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/42764304

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Sandpit, cheers.
This discussion has been closed.