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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At 100/1 or longer Osborne, DMiliband & TBlair for next LD lea

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited January 24 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At 100/1 or longer Osborne, DMiliband & TBlair for next LD leader – totally daft or might there be something there?

Above is the Ladbrokes market for next Liberal Democrat leader. Clearly this is not something that is going to come to fruition quickly though my guess is that the party will have a different person at the top by the time of the General Election if that happens in 2022. That is still a long way off and a lot of things will have happened by then.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • George Osborne CH will always be a Tory.
  • I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,885
    In the very unlikely event these people became leader of a centrist party involving the Lib Dems, it would no longer be called the Liberal Democrats and the bet would presumably fall.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 18,458
    This is onyl a result of the Lib Dems having so few contenders with any name recognition at all.

    In fact, I'm surprised they didn't put Henry Bolton's name up there for the LOLs. ;)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,560
    Morning all :)

    As none of the above are Party members (to my knowledge), let alone MPs, best put any spare cash on something running at Lingfield or Catterick. Nick Clegg at 33s is another stupendously silly bet.

    Jo Swinson is Britain's Jacinda Ardern except she's having the baby before becoming Prime Minister.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,200
    Totally daft.

    A returning Elvis has more chance.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,246
    I don't really see a future for the Lib Dems. Cable is worse than Farron.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,200
    Their views on Brexit are irrelevant. It's done and dusted. No point harking back to a supposed glorious past when European super-bureaucrats ruled the roost. It's in the dustbin of history.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,560

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    This is a meme I often hear from non-LDs (especially those on the Conservative side of the aisle). I'll be honest - Norman Lamb is an excellent constituency MP and of course survived the 2015 meltdown and his work, especially in promoting mental health, has been outstanding and rightly recognised across Westminster.

    The problem was after the 2015 election we needed a campaigner to get us back on our feet - someone who would inspire the new members and re-invigorate the activists scarred by the Coalition years and Tim Farron had that quasi-evangelical (and we all knew why) presence.

    It's like those who claim the Conservative Party needs a good old-fashioned right-winger or a Thatcher.

    The Party got what it wanted and needed in the summer of 2015 with Tim but we got a whole lot of other stuff as well. At the Hustings that summer, both Tim and Norman spoke well but I just felt Tim had more fire and was able to appeal to activists and new members more powerfully than Norman.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,961
    John_M said:

    I don't really see a future for the Lib Dems. Cable is worse than Farron.

    It's always at the point of apparent no hope that things can change.

    With the Kippers committing hara-kiri there is scope for another NOTA party.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,560
    John_M said:

    I don't really see a future for the Lib Dems. Cable is worse than Farron.

    I've no worries about the Party's future - it's survived much worse than this. At the moment, no one is really listening to anyone. The vast majority are entrenched either in the "we want Jeremy" camp or the "if Labour get in, the country's finished".

    Things will change, they always have and always will. That's one of the wonders of politics - nothing lasts forever.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,007

    This is onyl a result of the Lib Dems having so few contenders with any name recognition at all.

    In fact, I'm surprised they didn't put Henry Bolton's name up there for the LOLs. ;)

    Maybe Nigel Farage can become their leader.
  • stodge said:

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    This is a meme I often hear from non-LDs (especially those on the Conservative side of the aisle). I'll be honest - Norman Lamb is an excellent constituency MP and of course survived the 2015 meltdown and his work, especially in promoting mental health, has been outstanding and rightly recognised across Westminster.

    The problem was after the 2015 election we needed a campaigner to get us back on our feet - someone who would inspire the new members and re-invigorate the activists scarred by the Coalition years and Tim Farron had that quasi-evangelical (and we all knew why) presence.

    It's like those who claim the Conservative Party needs a good old-fashioned right-winger or a Thatcher.

    The Party got what it wanted and needed in the summer of 2015 with Tim but we got a whole lot of other stuff as well. At the Hustings that summer, both Tim and Norman spoke well but I just felt Tim had more fire and was able to appeal to activists and new members more powerfully than Norman.
    He was a very competent minister.

    One of the reasons the Lib Dems sank in the polls was because of the tuition fees increase.

    Seven years on making your leader the man who oversaw that increase might be a mistake.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,780
    stodge said:

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    The Party got what it wanted and needed in the summer of 2015 with Tim but we got a whole lot of other stuff as well. At the Hustings that summer, both Tim and Norman spoke well but I just felt Tim had more fire and was able to appeal to activists and new members more powerfully than Norman.
    And now you have Cable... how's that working out for you?
  • stodge said:

    John_M said:

    I don't really see a future for the Lib Dems. Cable is worse than Farron.

    I've no worries about the Party's future - it's survived much worse than this. At the moment, no one is really listening to anyone. The vast majority are entrenched either in the "we want Jeremy" camp or the "if Labour get in, the country's finished".

    Things will change, they always have and always will. That's one of the wonders of politics - nothing lasts forever.

    And loyalty is a virtue to be fair
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,560



    And now you have Cable... how's that working out for you?

    I'm quite happy with Vince's leadership. I wasn't expecting anyone to suddenly push the Party to 30% in the polls. As is often the case, we are at the mercy of forces outside our control and it won't be the first time the Party has said the right things but no one listened or wanted to listen.

    Vince isn't going to be leader for long - we all know Jo Swinson will take over down the track and we'll see what direction she takes us in.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,701

    The Party got what it wanted and needed in the summer of 2015 with Tim but we got a whole lot of other stuff as well. At the Hustings that summer, both Tim and Norman spoke well but I just felt Tim had more fire and was able to appeal to activists and new members more powerfully than Norman.
    More fire and brimstone?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,560


    And loyalty is a virtue to be fair

    One day it will be the Conservative Party on the ropes again just as it was from 1997-2005. It's true to say adversity tests loyalty.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,864
    The LDs next real opportunity will come post-Brexit.

    At the moment, their strategy is to make themselves, unapologetically, the party of stop Brexit. The trouble is that almost all the people who feel like that are already voting Labour. So they've snookered themselves a bit.

    Once it's over, the voting coalitions amongst the main parties should be subject to review again, but they could easily crowd themselves out again if, say, Labour became a practical party of a very soft-Rejoin, whilst they advocated a full-blooded Rejoin.

    It's probably what motivates most of their members and activists (not all) but if I were the LDs I'd be paying more attention to articulating a convincing narrative of 21stC Liberalism, that defines what they're all about, which might give them a USP to 15% of voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    Blair ruled himself out of returning to UK politics or trying to be PM again yesterday.

    Osborne though worked well in the Coalition and his son has campaigned for Vince Cable, I would also have thought Chuka Umunna could be thrown into the mix.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    Top trolling from Shadsy there, well done!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    I doubt it, most leftwingers are sticking with Corbyn and Tory voters are strongly pro Leave now
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,663
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As none of the above are Party members (to my knowledge), let alone MPs, best put any spare cash on something running at Lingfield or Catterick. Nick Clegg at 33s is another stupendously silly bet.

    Jo Swinson is Britain's Jacinda Ardern except she's having the baby before becoming Prime Minister.

    Going into coalition with UKIP?

    That's a brave call.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As none of the above are Party members (to my knowledge), let alone MPs, best put any spare cash on something running at Lingfield or Catterick. Nick Clegg at 33s is another stupendously silly bet.

    Jo Swinson is Britain's Jacinda Ardern except she's having the baby before becoming Prime Minister.

    Jacinda Ardern is leader of the New Zealand Labour Party as well as PM
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,864
    John_M said:

    I don't really see a future for the Lib Dems. Cable is worse than Farron.

    What does Vince Cable actually do?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    One advantage of an NHS is that one government department should be able to talk to the other and clear these things quickly and simply. Mrs Rudd’s department is looking increasingly disfunctional and tail-chasing.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,302
    HYUFD said:

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    I doubt it, most leftwingers are sticking with Corbyn and Tory voters are strongly pro Leave now
    Incorrect. 34% of current CON voters in latest Opinium poll said they'd vote Remain in a new Brexit referendum
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,701
    John_M said:

    I don't really see a future for the Lib Dems. Cable is worse than Farron.

    It depends how the Tories manage the fallout from the reversal of Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095
    stodge said:


    And loyalty is a virtue to be fair

    One day it will be the Conservative Party on the ropes again just as it was from 1997-2005. It's true to say adversity tests loyalty.

    I thought we were supposed to have been on the ropes ever since Theresa May got the top job?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095

    John_M said:

    I don't really see a future for the Lib Dems. Cable is worse than Farron.

    What does Vince Cable actually do?
    Test invisibility cloaks?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,864
    stodge said:

    John_M said:

    I don't really see a future for the Lib Dems. Cable is worse than Farron.

    I've no worries about the Party's future - it's survived much worse than this. At the moment, no one is really listening to anyone. The vast majority are entrenched either in the "we want Jeremy" camp or the "if Labour get in, the country's finished".

    Things will change, they always have and always will. That's one of the wonders of politics - nothing lasts forever.

    A wise post.
  • stodge said:


    And loyalty is a virtue to be fair

    One day it will be the Conservative Party on the ropes again just as it was from 1997-2005. It's true to say adversity tests loyalty.

    I think my loyalty to the party is being tested at the present time but ultimately I just think 'Corbyn' and it is right back on track
  • HYUFD said:

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    I doubt it, most leftwingers are sticking with Corbyn and Tory voters are strongly pro Leave now
    Incorrect. 34% of current CON voters in latest Opinium poll said they'd vote Remain in a new Brexit referendum
    I agree
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    edited January 24

    HYUFD said:

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    I doubt it, most leftwingers are sticking with Corbyn and Tory voters are strongly pro Leave now
    Incorrect. 34% of current CON voters in latest Opinium poll said they'd vote Remain in a new Brexit referendum
    Which given 42% of Tory voters voted Remain in the actual referendum is a fall of almost 10%.
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

    Other polls now have over 70% of Tory voters backing Leave.

    Plus under FPTP in most seats at parliamentary level the battle is Tory v Labour so the LDs get squeezed which is why they still want PR
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    They'd be better off breaking away the non-mental segment of the PLP and forming a new party (possibly including Lib Dems but not using them as a starting point).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,480
    Does Swinson actually want the job?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,663
    edited January 24

    John_M said:

    I don't really see a future for the Lib Dems. Cable is worse than Farron.

    What does Vince Cable actually do?
    He wroteput his name to a self serving article for CityAM this morning
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,560
    HYUFD said:


    Jacinda Ardern is leader of the New Zealand Labour Party as well as PM

    You do realise you come over as irritatingly pedantic and idiotic every time you "correct" someone else's posts.

    It's extraordinarily annoying - I know Ardern leads the NZ Labour Party. No one else felt the need to mention it - you did.

    What do you do with your life - can you take a course in professional pedantry?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Jacinda Ardern is leader of the New Zealand Labour Party as well as PM

    You do realise you come over as irritatingly pedantic and idiotic every time you "correct" someone else's posts.

    It's extraordinarily annoying - I know Ardern leads the NZ Labour Party. No one else felt the need to mention it - you did.

    What do you do with your life - can you take a course in professional pedantry?

    You made the point Jo Swinson would be a British Ardern, not me.

    Unless Swinson joins the Labour Party clearly she won't be
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,246
    edited January 24

    Does Swinson actually want the job?

    Oh come now Sandy, who among us would not want to lead the Lib Dems? That said, honesty compels me to admit to hedging my bets and putting my name down to be UKIP leader for the second week in February if that doesn't work out.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,322
    Miliband and Blair might be closer to the Lib Dems' position on Brexit than to their own party's but Osborne isn't. He may be closest to Labour's on that, if anything. Not that it really matters: for all the trouble Europe causes political parties, it's not a prime driver of votes or of politicians.

    Indeed, it is precisely because Europe is an important secondary issue - and one which cuts across party lines - that it does cause so much trouble.

    People join parties primarily because of their economic and social policies, and, even more broadly, about the nature of the society they want to see. Fringe parties might be different but with the big ones, the ones that form governments, it's about values, not policies (though individual policies might easily prompt someone to leave or not join such a party).

    Of the three, I agree with Mike that Blair is completely out of UK politics. I don't think that any party would be happy to take him at the moment, including the Lib Dems.

    Nor is there any indication that Miliband is keen to return to the fray, though were he to do so, while the Lib Dems might theoretically offer a better home in terms of what he, they and Labour stand for, it'd still be very much a political cul de sac. Why would he want to be a new Roy Jenkins? (And note - Roy Jenkins led his own new party, not a pre-existing one). There's also the complicating matter of how ratting on Labour would affect familial relations.

    Osborne, by contrast, while he worked quite well with the Lib Dems in coalition, was and is a Conservative and neither he nor they would be happy in the same party. Were he to return to frontline politics (itself, a dubious proposition), it'd be as a Conservative. That wouldn't preclude him cooperating with the Lib Dems in certain areas but it'd always be on the same transactional basis it was in coalition.

    While it's always worth thinking these things through, I don't see any value at all in any of the options, not least because for any of the three (Miliband, most likely), to end up leading those currently in the Lib Dems, it'd probably take a full-scale political realignment and that would mean that the party or movement he ended up leading wasn't in fact the Lib Dems, so the bet would be at best void.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    edited January 24
    Sandpit said:

    One advantage of an NHS is that one government department should be able to talk to the other and clear these things quickly and simply. Mrs Rudd’s department is looking increasingly disfunctional and tail-chasing.
    Surely this is a feature, not a bug?

    If net immigration target for Non-EU migrants is to be met, then surely it is a good thing, particularly if it forces up salaries for indiginous British staff. If it is good for plasterers, then surely it is good for psychiatrists too?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    stodge said:

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    This is a meme I often hear from non-LDs (especially those on the Conservative side of the aisle). I'll be honest - Norman Lamb is an excellent constituency MP and of course survived the 2015 meltdown and his work, especially in promoting mental health, has been outstanding and rightly recognised across Westminster.

    The problem was after the 2015 election we needed a campaigner to get us back on our feet - someone who would inspire the new members and re-invigorate the activists scarred by the Coalition years and Tim Farron had that quasi-evangelical (and we all knew why) presence.

    It's like those who claim the Conservative Party needs a good old-fashioned right-winger or a Thatcher.

    The Party got what it wanted and needed in the summer of 2015 with Tim but we got a whole lot of other stuff as well. At the Hustings that summer, both Tim and Norman spoke well but I just felt Tim had more fire and was able to appeal to activists and new members more powerfully than Norman.
    I agree. Thinking that a good number two would automatically make a good number one is an all too common mistake. True, Farron disappointed, but that doesn't make Lamb a good bet. The future hangs on whether Jo wants the job, and if so whether Cable will do the right thing at the right moment, or alternatively whether Moran can develop fast enough to provide an alternative choice.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779

    stodge said:

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    This is a meme I often hear from non-LDs (especially those on the Conservative side of the aisle). I'll be honest - Norman Lamb is an excellent constituency MP and of course survived the 2015 meltdown and his work, especially in promoting mental health, has been outstanding and rightly recognised across Westminster.

    The problem was after the 2015 election we needed a campaigner to get us back on our feet - someone who would inspire the new members and re-invigorate the activists scarred by the Coalition years and Tim Farron had that quasi-evangelical (and we all knew why) presence.

    It's like those who claim the Conservative Party needs a good old-fashioned right-winger or a Thatcher.

    The Party got what it wanted and needed in the summer of 2015 with Tim but we got a whole lot of other stuff as well. At the Hustings that summer, both Tim and Norman spoke well but I just felt Tim had more fire and was able to appeal to activists and new members more powerfully than Norman.
    He was a very competent minister.

    One of the reasons the Lib Dems sank in the polls was because of the tuition fees increase.

    Seven years on making your leader the man who oversaw that increase might be a mistake.
    I would have voted anyone but Cable if there had been a contest.

    Farron was harshly treated, I rather took to him at the Hustings, but still voted Lamb.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 341
    stodge said:

    Vince isn't going to be leader for long - we all know Jo Swinson will take over down the track and we'll see what direction she takes us in.

    Layla Moran is the value bet. Swinson is shrill and has coalition baggage. Moran has the idealism to appeal to those who are currently voting Corbyn, while being presentable and telegenic - not exactly universal qualities among Lib Dems - to win over Tory swing voters.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,560
    HYUFD said:


    You made the point Jo Swinson would be a British Ardern, not me.

    Unless Swinson joins the Labour Party clearly she won't be

    Yes, you do know most analogies don't stand up to close inspection. There is also the notion of "tongue in cheek" - perhaps you should familiarise yourself with that.

    Do we need to tell you before we try to be humourous - perhaps a codeword or an emoji to help you out ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,546
    One reason the Lib Dems would be doing better under Lamb is he would be advocating for soft Brexit rather than a pie in the sky second referendum.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,560

    stodge said:

    Vince isn't going to be leader for long - we all know Jo Swinson will take over down the track and we'll see what direction she takes us in.

    Layla Moran is the value bet. Swinson is shrill and has coalition baggage. Moran has the idealism to appeal to those who are currently voting Corbyn, while being presentable and telegenic - not exactly universal qualities among Lib Dems - to win over Tory swing voters.
    That's an interesting observation and something I hadn't considered.

    I'd like there to be a contest next time. Jo will start as favourite I'm sure but Layla would be an interesting contender. I suppose if the Conservatives aren't bothered about a Home Secretary with a 346 majority, the LDs shouldn't be bothered about a leader with an 816 majority.

    *** Warning for HYUFD - there is an analogy coming ****

    Perhaps Layla will be our version of Jacinda Ardern rather than Jo and do things in the same order as Jacinda. It might be interesting for the LDs to have a younger leader (after Vince we'll be skipping two generations, not one) and a contrast to May and Corbyn..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543

    stodge said:

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    The Party got what it wanted and needed in the summer of 2015 with Tim but we got a whole lot of other stuff as well. At the Hustings that summer, both Tim and Norman spoke well but I just felt Tim had more fire and was able to appeal to activists and new members more powerfully than Norman.
    And now you have Cable... how's that working out for you?
    None of the parties - major or minor - can be happy with their position at the moment.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,302
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    I doubt it, most leftwingers are sticking with Corbyn and Tory voters are strongly pro Leave now
    Incorrect. 34% of current CON voters in latest Opinium poll said they'd vote Remain in a new Brexit referendum
    Which given 42% of Tory voters voted Remain in the actual referendum is a fall of almost 10%.
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

    Other polls now have over 70% of Tory voters backing Leave.

    Plus under FPTP in most seats at parliamentary level the battle is Tory v Labour so the LDs get squeezed which is why they still want PR
    You are the one make ridiculous assertions. If you want to make a declaration on what a group of voters think on PB you need to source it. All your posts sound like wishful thinking
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 341
    Activists in OxWAB are working the seat incredibly hard. We're n years off an election and yet my Facebook feed is full of "come and knock up doors in Oxford". National winds could sweep her off course yet, but otherwise I'm not too worried about her small majority.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 34,492
    DD is in front of the Brexit committee this morning. Going as well as might be expected...

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,322
    stodge said:

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    This is a meme I often hear from non-LDs (especially those on the Conservative side of the aisle). I'll be honest - Norman Lamb is an excellent constituency MP and of course survived the 2015 meltdown and his work, especially in promoting mental health, has been outstanding and rightly recognised across Westminster.

    The problem was after the 2015 election we needed a campaigner to get us back on our feet - someone who would inspire the new members and re-invigorate the activists scarred by the Coalition years and Tim Farron had that quasi-evangelical (and we all knew why) presence.

    It's like those who claim the Conservative Party needs a good old-fashioned right-winger or a Thatcher.

    The Party got what it wanted and needed in the summer of 2015 with Tim but we got a whole lot of other stuff as well. At the Hustings that summer, both Tim and Norman spoke well but I just felt Tim had more fire and was able to appeal to activists and new members more powerfully than Norman.
    When the expectation was that Burnham or Cooper would become Labour leader, Farron was probably the right choice. However, against Corbyn and, as it turned out later, against May, Lamb would have better suited the reassuring, sensible centre ground.

    What was Farron's appeal other than ultra-Europeanism, that Corbyn couldn't trump? He was outcampaigned across the board, nearly losing his own constituency into the bargain (and almost certainly would have done but for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill).

    There is an enormous gaping gap in the centre and centre-left for someone to fill. When Labour last went wildly leftwards, the Alliance had heavyweight hitters to the extent that they briefly polled 50% and maintained 20%+ through most of the 1980s. It's a measure of their fall that in similar (not identical, I grant), circumstances, they can't even reach double-figures.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543

    Activists in OxWAB are working the seat incredibly hard. We're n years off an election and yet my Facebook feed is full of "come and knock up doors in Oxford". National winds could sweep her off course yet, but otherwise I'm not too worried about her small majority.

    She has the first-time incumbents' bonus to look forward to - which for LibDems is typically in four figures - and if she were leader that would bring an extra bonus on top. And the Tories lose their incumbency bonus, assuming Blackwood retires or looks elsewhere, and there are 7,500 Labour voters some of whom might be prepared to vote tactically now she has proven she can win.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    I doubt it, most leftwingers are sticking with Corbyn and Tory voters are strongly pro Leave now
    Incorrect. 34% of current CON voters in latest Opinium poll said they'd vote Remain in a new Brexit referendum
    Which given 42% of Tory voters voted Remain in the actual referendum is a fall of almost 10%.
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

    Other polls now have over 70% of Tory voters backing Leave.

    Plus under FPTP in most seats at parliamentary level the battle is Tory v Labour so the LDs get squeezed which is why they still want PR
    You are the one make ridiculous assertions. If you want to make a declaration on what a group of voters think on PB you need to source it. All your posts sound like wishful thinking
    They are wishful, for sure.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779
    MaxPB said:

    One reason the Lib Dems would be doing better under Lamb is he would be advocating for soft Brexit rather than a pie in the sky second referendum.

    Lamb didn't stand, because of this issue. He opposed having a second referendum and favoured a soft EEA Brexit since the referendum.

    Most of the new LD members are strongly rejectionist over Brexit, so Lamb would almost certainly have lost, but it would have been useful to have that debate.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    Dr. Foxy, also, those almost certain to lose do sometimes win. Trump, Corbyn, etc.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 341

    There is an enormous gaping gap in the centre and centre-left for someone to fill. When Labour last went wildly leftwards, the Alliance had heavyweight hitters to the extent that they briefly polled 50% and maintained 20%+ through most of the 1980s.

    A lot depends on how Momentum choose to use any deselection/reselection weapon. Right now Labour is in an uneasy state of truce. The instant that a centrist Labour MP is deselected for crimes against Momentum, the Lib Dems will start to look like a plausible home - if perhaps not a likely one - for some of those heavyweight hitters.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095
    I thought George Osborne was seen by LibDems as the personification of the evil Tories that caused their obliteration in 2015?

    That said, if they want him, they are welcome to him.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,701
    Liam Fox argues against a “deals based” trading system on CNN.

    http://www.snappytv.com/tc/6906042
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 736
    IanB2 said:

    Activists in OxWAB are working the seat incredibly hard. We're n years off an election and yet my Facebook feed is full of "come and knock up doors in Oxford". National winds could sweep her off course yet, but otherwise I'm not too worried about her small majority.

    She has the first-time incumbents' bonus to look forward to - which for LibDems is typically in four figures - and if she were leader that would bring an extra bonus on top. And the Tories lose their incumbency bonus, assuming Blackwood retires or looks elsewhere, and there are 7,500 Labour voters some of whom might be prepared to vote tactically now she has proven she can win.
    When canvassing in OxWAb for the GE, I did knock on the door of one Labour voter who was actively angry with us for claiming that Layla could win - he was insistent that it was all-but-impossible, so our presentation of the situation was misleading and wrong. "You're not overturning a 10,000 vote majority, so you're lying." He got quite vociferous about it.

    I did feel a small urge to go back to him the day after and just stand there with a raised eyebrow.

    Separate to that, the Labour candidate was a strong one, as well. I was knocking up in south Abingdon and ran into a counterpart knocking up for the Tories. We had a quick, friendly chat, and he told me it was looking a lot closer than they'd ever thought it was (he was right), but he felt they were going to hang on by the skin of their teeth simply because the Labour candidate was strong enough to resist the squeeze better than we'd hope. But that he'd put £20 on Layla at 5-1 simply so he was covered either way - he'd feel happy if they held the seat, but if they lost, he'd have £100 profit to cushion the blow.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779

    There is an enormous gaping gap in the centre and centre-left for someone to fill. When Labour last went wildly leftwards, the Alliance had heavyweight hitters to the extent that they briefly polled 50% and maintained 20%+ through most of the 1980s.

    A lot depends on how Momentum choose to use any deselection/reselection weapon. Right now Labour is in an uneasy state of truce. The instant that a centrist Labour MP is deselected for crimes against Momentum, the Lib Dems will start to look like a plausible home - if perhaps not a likely one - for some of those heavyweight hitters.
    I cannot see it myself, I don't think that there will be deselections, though I do expect Momentum to be active in other PPC selections including retirements. They dont seem to have been very successful so far. Neither do I see defections as likely. Even Centrists like Kendall (whose own parents were LD activists) show no sign of such a move.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779

    I thought George Osborne was seen by LibDems as the personification of the evil Tories that caused their obliteration in 2015?

    That said, if they want him, they are welcome to him.

    None of Blair, Miliband or Osborne would stand a better chance than Farage!

    Farron at 100/1 is not riduculous though.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,322

    There is an enormous gaping gap in the centre and centre-left for someone to fill. When Labour last went wildly leftwards, the Alliance had heavyweight hitters to the extent that they briefly polled 50% and maintained 20%+ through most of the 1980s.

    A lot depends on how Momentum choose to use any deselection/reselection weapon. Right now Labour is in an uneasy state of truce. The instant that a centrist Labour MP is deselected for crimes against Momentum, the Lib Dems will start to look like a plausible home - if perhaps not a likely one - for some of those heavyweight hitters.
    Hello Saturday article :)
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,246
    edited January 24
    I'm astonished that any virus would presume to infect His Moggness. Have they no respect for breeding?

    I do like watching Davis in committee, he's generally so relaxed and hand wavey that I can only assume he's got a stash of the good stuff hidden away somewhere.

    I await general hysteria among the nuttier Brexiteers at the prospect of being a vassal state :).
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,541
    "A billion here, a billion there - soon you are talking real money."

    David Davis jokingly uses the well used quote attributed to a US Senator.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,286
    Foxy said:

    There is an enormous gaping gap in the centre and centre-left for someone to fill. When Labour last went wildly leftwards, the Alliance had heavyweight hitters to the extent that they briefly polled 50% and maintained 20%+ through most of the 1980s.

    A lot depends on how Momentum choose to use any deselection/reselection weapon. Right now Labour is in an uneasy state of truce. The instant that a centrist Labour MP is deselected for crimes against Momentum, the Lib Dems will start to look like a plausible home - if perhaps not a likely one - for some of those heavyweight hitters.
    I cannot see it myself, I don't think that there will be deselections, though I do expect Momentum to be active in other PPC selections including retirements. They dont seem to have been very successful so far. Neither do I see defections as likely. Even Centrists like Kendall (whose own parents were LD activists) show no sign of such a move.

    NE Derbyshire 2 Corbynites Chris Peace and Alison Martin Vs Bex Bailey who was very anti Corbyn when she was on the NEC.

    I would give Peace a chance but if i was betting would reluctantly have to go for Ms Bailey.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    One advantage of an NHS is that one government department should be able to talk to the other and clear these things quickly and simply. Mrs Rudd’s department is looking increasingly disfunctional and tail-chasing.
    Surely this is a feature, not a bug?

    If net immigration target for Non-EU migrants is to be met, then surely it is a good thing, particularly if it forces up salaries for indiginous British staff. If it is good for plasterers, then surely it is good for psychiatrists too?
    Now I know you’re trolling. Any sensible immigration system allows for those with key shortage skills to be fast tracked. I’m sure you’d agree that healthcare professionals at any salary come into this category!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,548

    HYUFD said:

    I reckon if Norman Lamb was leading the Lib Dems they’d be doing a lot better.

    I doubt it, most leftwingers are sticking with Corbyn and Tory voters are strongly pro Leave now
    Incorrect. 34% of current CON voters in latest Opinium poll said they'd vote Remain in a new Brexit referendum
    It's not often I agree with HYUFD but is approximately two thirds not reasonably "strongly" in favour if something?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 227
    edited January 24
    There is an enormous gaping gap in the centre and centre-left for someone to fill. When Labour last went wildly leftwards, the Alliance had heavyweight hitters to the extent that they briefly polled 50% and maintained 20%+ through most of the 1980s. It's a measure of their fall that in similar (not identical, I grant), circumstances, they can't even reach double-figures.
    ......................................

    It is sort of the right assessment but from the wrong angle (in my occasionally incorrect opinion), the shift this time is politically in the opposite direction. The Conservatives are going right just as the country is beginning to go left, surely the opportunity lies more on the centre and centre right with the Blairites and Cameroons, who I think actually make up a far smaller percentage of the voting population than they are given credit for, they certainly have a large media presence.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,541
    Earlier David Davis referred to the over use of secrecy, quoting the example of keeping the number of tea bags ordered by the Defence Dept top secret during the cold war so the Russians could not estimate the number of staff there.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,548
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    One advantage of an NHS is that one government department should be able to talk to the other and clear these things quickly and simply. Mrs Rudd’s department is looking increasingly disfunctional and tail-chasing.
    Surely this is a feature, not a bug?

    If net immigration target for Non-EU migrants is to be met, then surely it is a good thing, particularly if it forces up salaries for indiginous British staff. If it is good for plasterers, then surely it is good for psychiatrists too?
    Now I know you’re trolling. Any sensible immigration system allows for those with key shortage skills to be fast tracked. I’m sure you’d agree that healthcare professionals at any salary come into this category!
    Actually according to the quote they don't. Certain specialities of medics do but these specific ones don't.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 18,458
    Off-topic:

    A fairly heartbreaking interview with Tessa Jowell on the brain cancer that she's fighting.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-42786413/former-labour-minister-opens-up-about-being-diagnosed-with-brain-cancer

    She raises some interesting issues.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,706
    Farron had a good moment in the debate in the last GE mocking May over calling a snap election , then not bother to attend.It did resonate.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,541
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    One reason the Lib Dems would be doing better under Lamb is he would be advocating for soft Brexit rather than a pie in the sky second referendum.

    Lamb didn't stand, because of this issue. He opposed having a second referendum and favoured a soft EEA Brexit since the referendum.

    Most of the new LD members are strongly rejectionist over Brexit, so Lamb would almost certainly have lost, but it would have been useful to have that debate.
    I think Norman Lamb's constituency voted Leave and he is very much a pragmatist.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,487
    Of course they aren't down 0.5% in January. They are down 0.5% in the year to January.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 341
    So JRM and Boris are both on manoeuvres for the Tory Brexiteer crown.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,107

    There is an enormous gaping gap in the centre and centre-left for someone to fill. When Labour last went wildly leftwards, the Alliance had heavyweight hitters to the extent that they briefly polled 50% and maintained 20%+ through most of the 1980s. It's a measure of their fall that in similar (not identical, I grant), circumstances, they can't even reach double-figures.
    ......................................

    It is sort of the right assessment but from the wrong angle (in my occasionally incorrect opinion), the shift this time is politically in the opposite direction. The Conservatives are going right just as the country is beginning to go left, surely the opportunity lies more on the centre and centre right with the Blairites and Cameroons, who I think actually make up a far smaller percentage of the voting population than they are given credit for, they certainly have a large media presence.

    The current Conservative administration and the last Conservative manifesto is less right wing than any for several decades....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,879
    That FT story has escalated quickly.


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    One reason the Lib Dems would be doing better under Lamb is he would be advocating for soft Brexit rather than a pie in the sky second referendum.

    Lamb didn't stand, because of this issue. He opposed having a second referendum and favoured a soft EEA Brexit since the referendum.

    Most of the new LD members are strongly rejectionist over Brexit, so Lamb would almost certainly have lost, but it would have been useful to have that debate.
    I think Norman Lamb's constituency voted Leave and he is very much a pragmatist.
    He has said that, but also feels, rather like Tory Remainers, that the vote needs respecting rather than overturning, as he respects democracy. I agree with him.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,107
    dr_spyn said:
    Twitter mob wins, a good cause loses. Very sad.


  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,169

    So JRM and Boris are both on manoeuvres for the Tory Brexiteer crown.

    It's like Laurel and Hardy trying to get that piano up a flight of stairs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 779

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    One advantage of an NHS is that one government department should be able to talk to the other and clear these things quickly and simply. Mrs Rudd’s department is looking increasingly disfunctional and tail-chasing.
    Surely this is a feature, not a bug?

    If net immigration target for Non-EU migrants is to be met, then surely it is a good thing, particularly if it forces up salaries for indiginous British staff. If it is good for plasterers, then surely it is good for psychiatrists too?
    Now I know you’re trolling. Any sensible immigration system allows for those with key shortage skills to be fast tracked. I’m sure you’d agree that healthcare professionals at any salary come into this category!
    Actually according to the quote they don't. Certain specialities of medics do but these specific ones don't.
    The specialities cited are shortage ones. Indeed it is only acceptable to appoint via a Tier 2 visa if there is no appointable UK or EU candidate.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,487
    Mortimer said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Twitter mob wins, a good cause loses. Very sad.


    ... have you read the article...?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,541

    Liam Fox argues against a “deals based” trading system on CNN.

    http://www.snappytv.com/tc/6906042

    Liam Fox gives strong responses to an agressive CNN interviewer who seemed to be both anti Brexit and anti globalisation, contradictory positions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    edited January 24

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    One advantage of an NHS is that one government department should be able to talk to the other and clear these things quickly and simply. Mrs Rudd’s department is looking increasingly disfunctional and tail-chasing.
    Surely this is a feature, not a bug?

    If net immigration target for Non-EU migrants is to be met, then surely it is a good thing, particularly if it forces up salaries for indiginous British staff. If it is good for plasterers, then surely it is good for psychiatrists too?
    Now I know you’re trolling. Any sensible immigration system allows for those with key shortage skills to be fast tracked. I’m sure you’d agree that healthcare professionals at any salary come into this category!
    Actually according to the quote they don't. Certain specialities of medics do but these specific ones don't.
    Which is why the Home Office need a kick up the arse! If the NHS need staff then immigration rules need to reflect that, not the other way around.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 227
    Mortimer said:

    There is an enormous gaping gap in the centre and centre-left for someone to fill. When Labour last went wildly leftwards, the Alliance had heavyweight hitters to the extent that they briefly polled 50% and maintained 20%+ through most of the 1980s. It's a measure of their fall that in similar (not identical, I grant), circumstances, they can't even reach double-figures.
    ......................................

    It is sort of the right assessment but from the wrong angle (in my occasionally incorrect opinion), the shift this time is politically in the opposite direction. The Conservatives are going right just as the country is beginning to go left, surely the opportunity lies more on the centre and centre right with the Blairites and Cameroons, who I think actually make up a far smaller percentage of the voting population than they are given credit for, they certainly have a large media presence.

    The current Conservative administration and the last Conservative manifesto is less right wing than any for several decades....
    It depends how you view what some see as a xenophobic right wing Brexit. Crush the saboteurs, Liberal / metropolitan elite, citizens of nowhere.

    Also the promise to rip up human rights and the general tone of the conservatives seemed more authoritarian and socially conservative.

    May promising to put workers on boards and price caps on energy barely swing it more left wing overall to my mind.

    Trying to appeal to a certain section of Labour leave /UKIP voters does not equal left wing, or at least not to my mind although I can imagine some on the right see it that way. I guess some of this comes down to what is seen as left wing or right wing.

    Although as much as I dislike the Tories they have done much what Labour have done, dropped a small but very noisy and influential set of voters for much larger groups who had been on the sidelines of politics.
This discussion has been closed.