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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a day when TMay’s future has been in the news the last nine

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited January 25 in General

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  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530
    No value in any of that lot.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,872
    edited January 25
    Second. Subject to contract. Good luck and best wishes @Richard_Tyndall
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,236
    Guess who was the highest earning tennis player last year by a country pile?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,872
    Can't see why any of the named would be noticeably better than Tezza. All are either bland or divisive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    Ishmael_Z said:

    No value in any of that lot.

    Or in their odds....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    edited January 25
    Williamson is dominating the front pages of the Telegraph and Mail. Surely not accidental...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,636

    Williamson is dominating the front pages of the Telegraph and Mail. Surely not accidental...

    Williamson doing his "I'm dead hard, me" act again. He reminds me so much of a 14-year-old boy trying too much to win street cred.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 7,341
    The nutters in charge really are trying to drive us into war with Russia aren't they?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641
    Williamson is ridiculous. If he ever ends up as leader then Labour deserve a go.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,236
    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

  • chloechloe Posts: 153
    Rees-Mogg or Boris would guarantee a Corbyn landslide.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641

    The nutters in charge really are trying to drive us into war with Russia aren't they?

    I don’t agree with you on everything, but I share your bewilderment about the Russia hysteria. A country with an economy smaller than that of South Korea wants to play at being a superpower.

    Let them! The only people they are impoverishing are themselves, and for most Russians, regaining Crimea was worth the price paid.
  • chloe said:

    Rees-Mogg or Boris would guarantee a Corbyn landslide.

    I do not support either but Corbyn and landslides are for the birds

    Also Gavin Williamson is just stupid if he thinks playing the Russia will kill us card is even credible

    Maybe this demonstrates that TM is the person for this moment in time despite all her faults, but she is not the future
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116
    edited January 25
    FPT:

    Right. I've changed my mind from this morning.

    The developments of today make me wonder if the PM has lost the patience of significant parts of the party, and that it couldn't get much worse with pretty much any of the posited replacements.

    I agree with David H, and think she loses a VoNC, if it happens.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719

    Maybe this demonstrates that TM is the person for this moment in time despite all her faults, but she is not the future

    Apparently she and Nick Timothy are the ones grooming Williamson.

    https://reaction.life/nick-timothy-propped-pm-weird-plot-make-gavin-williamson-tory-leader/

    The Mayite candidate when that contest eventually comes thus has a head start and is already in the cabinet. That is the defence secretary Gavin Williamson so vigorously promoted as the future of a grittier “Nottingham not Notting Hill” Conservatism, by Nick Timothy, May’s former chief of staff. Timothy still has a great influence on May, who has long relied on his political skills.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,546

    Williamson is dominating the front pages of the Telegraph and Mail. Surely not accidental...

    I genuinely thought that was a photo of Boris waving to the crowd until I saw the headline.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,236
    RoyalBlue said:

    The nutters in charge really are trying to drive us into war with Russia aren't they?

    I don’t agree with you on everything, but I share your bewilderment about the Russia hysteria. A country with an economy smaller than that of South Korea wants to play at being a superpower.

    Let them! The only people they are impoverishing are themselves, and for most Russians, regaining Crimea was worth the price paid.
    I doubt you'd be saying that comrade if Russia was being led by some Venezuelan, leftist socialist.

    Sometimes you have to take to close your eyes and just kind of accept when people are behaving badly. And the Russians are behaving badly.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131
    FTPT:

    Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

    for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

    In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
    Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,480

    Maybe this demonstrates that TM is the person for this moment in time despite all her faults, but she is not the future

    Apparently she and Nick Timothy are the ones grooming Williamson.

    https://reaction.life/nick-timothy-propped-pm-weird-plot-make-gavin-williamson-tory-leader/

    The Mayite candidate when that contest eventually comes thus has a head start and is already in the cabinet. That is the defence secretary Gavin Williamson so vigorously promoted as the future of a grittier “Nottingham not Notting Hill” Conservatism, by Nick Timothy, May’s former chief of staff. Timothy still has a great influence on May, who has long relied on his political skills.
    Timothy has political skills? I must have blinked.
  • Barnesian said:

    Williamson is dominating the front pages of the Telegraph and Mail. Surely not accidental...

    I genuinely thought that was a photo of Boris waving to the crowd until I saw the headline.
    Sky reporting on her meeting with Trump was the first time I can remember for a long time that they have said something complimentary for her
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,236

    chloe said:

    Rees-Mogg or Boris would guarantee a Corbyn landslide.

    I do not support either but Corbyn and landslides are for the birds

    Also Gavin Williamson is just stupid if he thinks playing the Russia will kill us card is even credible

    Maybe this demonstrates that TM is the person for this moment in time despite all her faults, but she is not the future
    TM's the future of the Tory party since there are no credible alternatives. I think Hunt is an alternative, but clearly swivel eyed zealots do not rate him.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,480
    tyson said:

    chloe said:

    Rees-Mogg or Boris would guarantee a Corbyn landslide.

    I do not support either but Corbyn and landslides are for the birds

    Also Gavin Williamson is just stupid if he thinks playing the Russia will kill us card is even credible

    Maybe this demonstrates that TM is the person for this moment in time despite all her faults, but she is not the future
    TM's the future of the Tory party since there are no credible alternatives. I think Hunt is an alternative, but clearly swivel eyed zealots do not rate him.
    credibility might not be a bar
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited January 25
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn
  • chloechloe Posts: 153
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway
    Not all Tories are Brexiteers.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,908
    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

    for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

    In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
    Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

    I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,236
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

    I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,872
    chloe said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway
    Not all Tories are Brexiteers.
    There are however quite a few who think they should be...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

    for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

    In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
    Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

    So over 50% of 35-44 year olds are still able to get on the property ladder and buy their first property even if those in their early thirties and those in their twenties cannot. Thus with the young mainly renting and voting Labour and the old mainly property owners, it will be 35-44 year old mortgage holders who will decide the next general election and if fewer of them get on the property ladder that boosts Labour, if more get on the property ladder that boosts the Tories
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116
    edited January 25
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

    for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

    In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
    Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

    I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.
    I'm wondering if graduates were less likely to be homeowners in their 20s, during the 90s, than they are now...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

    I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party
    Would you vote for a Hunt led Tories over Labour and the LDs that is the question? If not all your admiration for him does the Tories no good
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,877
    What percentage of people in their 30s are married today compared to 1995?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,685
    edited January 25
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

    for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

    In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
    Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

    I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.
    But when you did buy homes, you bought expensive homes, right?

    or, like, something around the UK average property price?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,877
    edited January 25
    Scott_P said:
    The Tories losing control of Westminster council could be the final straw for Theresa May if it happens.

    Labour are very likely to win the popular vote in Westminster but their vote tends to be concentrated in a few wards in the north of the borough.

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/20/
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,236
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

    I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party
    Would you vote for a Hunt led Tories over Labour and the LDs that is the question? If not all your admiration for him does the Tories no good
    I absolutely would vote for a Hunt over Corbyn Labour Party a gazillion times over if Hunt committed to a second referendum....admittedly putting my cross into a Tory box would make me feel slightly light headed....


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Tories losing control of Westminster council could be the final straw for Theresa May if it happens.
    Perhaps May should launch a 'Building Strong And Stable Communities' policy.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,480
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

    I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party
    do you get a vote?
  • chloechloe Posts: 153
    dixiedean said:

    chloe said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway
    Not all Tories are Brexiteers.
    There are however quite a few who think they should be...
    True but at this rate Brexit is going to lead to a irreconcilable split and let Corbyn in.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,636
    Question Time....

    Michael Forsyth is still around?!!?
  • If there is any lesson from the last decade or so of UK politics it must be that the public notice when party leaders are comfortable in themselves and perform competently on TV - think Blair, Cameron and Salmond vs Brown, IDS and Farron.

    If the Tories want to win next time, their leader must fit that. May, Hammond, Rudd, Gove, etc. don't. Johnson, Rees-Mogg and - possibly - Hunt do. The public will not forgive them if they choose someone who ticks party boxes but can't perform. The country want leadership, vision and inspiration. And build more blasted houses pronto.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,236

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

    I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party
    do you get a vote?
    No...and I wouldn't take a 3 quid offer to vote either (which will not happen).....

    so to coin something that I learnt from Nick Palmer..... I should STFU.....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,872
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

    for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

    In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
    Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

    I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.
    But quite a few non graduates did. My brother bought at 21 in 1991. In the North, with a steady job, and very low deposits it wasn't difficult to get a mortgage on a terraced house. In fact, it was relatively easy. Most of his peers working in catering were home owners then. Today, not likely.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,086
    edited January 25
    Never trust an adulterer, they are the lowest of the low.

    Can't see the blue rinsers happy with Gavin Williamson.

    EXCLUSIVE: 'My family means everything to me. I almost threw it away': Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson confesses to affair with more junior married colleague but says his wife has forgiven him

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,636
    edited January 25
    Peter Oborne is a very peculiar man.
  • chloe said:

    dixiedean said:

    chloe said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway
    Not all Tories are Brexiteers.
    There are however quite a few who think they should be...
    True but at this rate Brexit is going to lead to a irreconcilable split and let Corbyn in.
    The conservative party will not let Corbyn in no matter what problems they have
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,877
    Danny565 said:

    Peter Oborne is a very peculiar creature.

    Why is he?
  • chloechloe Posts: 153

    chloe said:

    dixiedean said:

    chloe said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway
    Not all Tories are Brexiteers.
    There are however quite a few who think they should be...
    True but at this rate Brexit is going to lead to a irreconcilable split and let Corbyn in.
    The conservative party will not let Corbyn in no matter what problems they have
    Rees-Mogg would
  • chloe said:

    chloe said:

    dixiedean said:

    chloe said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway
    Not all Tories are Brexiteers.
    There are however quite a few who think they should be...
    True but at this rate Brexit is going to lead to a irreconcilable split and let Corbyn in.
    The conservative party will not let Corbyn in no matter what problems they have
    Rees-Mogg would
    You cannot even be sure of that
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641

    Never trust an adulterer, they are the lowest of the low.

    Can't see the blue rinsers happy with Gavin Williamson.

    EXCLUSIVE: 'My family means everything to me. I almost threw it away': Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson confesses to affair with more junior married colleague but says his wife has forgiven him

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html

    Yet more evidence of his unsuitability. He isn’t trustworthy, he tells people what they want to hear, and I’ve yet to hear of an original idea he’s had.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530

    Never trust an adulterer, they are the lowest of the low.

    Can't see the blue rinsers happy with Gavin Williamson.

    EXCLUSIVE: 'My family means everything to me. I almost threw it away': Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson confesses to affair with more junior married colleague but says his wife has forgiven him

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html

    As noted below that's him getting the story out there to detox it, before someone else does.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,236

    Never trust an adulterer, they are the lowest of the low.

    Can't see the blue rinsers happy with Gavin Williamson.

    EXCLUSIVE: 'My family means everything to me. I almost threw it away': Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson confesses to affair with more junior married colleague but says his wife has forgiven him

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html

    Read the article...Gavin's only admitted to a couple of little kisses. Whether there was any tongue or not, or where said tongues licked or probed......

    All sounds a bit Clitonesque to me...
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Never trust an adulterer, they are the lowest of the low.

    Can't see the blue rinsers happy with Gavin Williamson.

    EXCLUSIVE: 'My family means everything to me. I almost threw it away': Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson confesses to affair with more junior married colleague but says his wife has forgiven him

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html

    As noted below that's him getting the story out there to detox it, before someone else does.
    You cynic.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,244
    RoyalBlue said:

    Never trust an adulterer, they are the lowest of the low.

    Can't see the blue rinsers happy with Gavin Williamson.

    EXCLUSIVE: 'My family means everything to me. I almost threw it away': Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson confesses to affair with more junior married colleague but says his wife has forgiven him

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5313977/Gavin-Williamsons-office-fling-nearly-ended-marriage.html

    Yet more evidence of his unsuitability. He isn’t trustworthy, he tells people what they want to hear, and I’ve yet to hear of an original idea he’s had.
    Sounds just like a typical Tory leader then :smile:
  • chloechloe Posts: 153

    chloe said:

    chloe said:

    dixiedean said:

    chloe said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway
    Not all Tories are Brexiteers.
    There are however quite a few who think they should be...
    True but at this rate Brexit is going to lead to a irreconcilable split and let Corbyn in.
    The conservative party will not let Corbyn in no matter what problems they have
    Rees-Mogg would
    You cannot even be sure of that
    Maybe not but I wouldn’t vote for a Rees-Mogg led party.
  • Anyhoo.

    You ain’t seen me right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Tories losing control of Westminster council could be the final straw for Theresa May if it happens.

    Labour are very likely to win the popular vote in Westminster but their vote tends to be concentrated in a few wards in the north of the borough.

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/20/
    So the Tories are likely to hold Westminster in seat terms then, given Ed Miliband won most votes and seats in the 2014 local elections when the seats up in May were last up the results may not be as bad for the Tories as some expect, especially given the UKIP vote will also be well down
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

    I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party
    Would you vote for a Hunt led Tories over Labour and the LDs that is the question? If not all your admiration for him does the Tories no good
    I absolutely would vote for a Hunt over Corbyn Labour Party a gazillion times over if Hunt committed to a second referendum....admittedly putting my cross into a Tory box would make me feel slightly light headed....


    Except Hunt has said he is now a Leaver and would not commit to a second referendum
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 4,835
    I'm confused by the implied probability figures in the chart above. My understanding was that bookmakers odds converted to probabilities would normally sum too more than 100% - the excess, or overround, being one source of their profits in the long-term. So it's sure striking that the front eight in the betting only have a combined probability of becoming the next leader of 53%, probably under half when you take the overround into account.

    Could the next Tory leader be any one of more than a dozen MPs not in the top eight? Or should most of the top eight be at shorter odds?
  • chloechloe Posts: 153
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Tories losing control of Westminster council could be the final straw for Theresa May if it happens.

    Labour are very likely to win the popular vote in Westminster but their vote tends to be concentrated in a few wards in the north of the borough.

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/20/
    So the Tories are likely to hold Westminster in seat terms then, given Ed Miliband won most votes and seats in the 2014 local elections when the seats up in May were last up the results may not be as bad for the Tories as some expect, especially given the UKIP vote will also be well down
    It is looking very dodgy in Barnet for the Tories
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,872
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

    I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party
    Would you vote for a Hunt led Tories over Labour and the LDs that is the question? If not all your admiration for him does the Tories no good
    I absolutely would vote for a Hunt over Corbyn Labour Party a gazillion times over if Hunt committed to a second referendum....admittedly putting my cross into a Tory box would make me feel slightly light headed....


    Except Hunt has said he is now a Leaver and would not commit to a second referendum
    So what is to stop him becoming a Remainer again?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487
    Scott_P said:
    More of a stark sign how crap May is.
  • chloechloe Posts: 153

    Scott_P said:
    More of a stark sign how crap May is.
    And Brexit
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,300

    Scott_P said:
    More of a stark sign how crap May is.
    Surprised it doesn’t say “because of Brexit”. :D
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487
    chloe said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Tories losing control of Westminster council could be the final straw for Theresa May if it happens.

    Labour are very likely to win the popular vote in Westminster but their vote tends to be concentrated in a few wards in the north of the borough.

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/20/
    So the Tories are likely to hold Westminster in seat terms then, given Ed Miliband won most votes and seats in the 2014 local elections when the seats up in May were last up the results may not be as bad for the Tories as some expect, especially given the UKIP vote will also be well down
    It is looking very dodgy in Barnet for the Tories
    Moreso for Trump..

    Night all...
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,480
    chloe said:

    chloe said:

    dixiedean said:

    chloe said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    The main people who take Hunt seriously are pro European social democrats like you who would never vote Tory anyway
    Not all Tories are Brexiteers.
    There are however quite a few who think they should be...
    True but at this rate Brexit is going to lead to a irreconcilable split and let Corbyn in.
    The conservative party will not let Corbyn in no matter what problems they have
    Rees-Mogg would
    any new leader will be the least unpopular candidate not the most popular. JRM would not fit either description
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

    for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

    In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
    Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

    I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.
    But quite a few non graduates did. My brother bought at 21 in 1991. In the North, with a steady job, and very low deposits it wasn't difficult to get a mortgage on a terraced house. In fact, it was relatively easy. Most of his peers working in catering were home owners then. Today, not likely.
    Quite - and don't forget the numbers going to university more than doubled during the 90s. Many more aged 25 would have been in full time employment for half a decade or so back then.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 4,646
    edited January 25
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

    for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

    In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
    Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

    So over 50% of 35-44 year olds are still able to get on the property ladder and buy their first property even if those in their early thirties and those in their twenties cannot. Thus with the young mainly renting and voting Labour and the old mainly property owners, it will be 35-44 year old mortgage holders who will decide the next general election and if fewer of them get on the property ladder that boosts Labour, if more get on the property ladder that boosts the Tories
    Careful, you're running into the cohort/agegroup problem.

    The "35-44 year olds" you refer to were 35-44 in 2013/4, so they were born in the 1969-1978 cohort. They are now 39-48.

    If we assume the next election is in 2022, then the "35-44 year old mortgage holders who will decide the next general election" will have been born in the 1978-1987 cohort, so in 2013/4 they would have been in the 26-35 age group.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,511
    Danny565 said:

    Peter Oborne is a very peculiar man.

    He is very strange...
  • Scott_P said:
    Doesn't the rest of the world know that the UK is now an 'Aid Superpower' ?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 4,835

    I'm confused by the implied probability figures in the chart above. My understanding was that bookmakers odds converted to probabilities would normally sum too more than 100% - the excess, or overround, being one source of their profits in the long-term. So it's sure striking that the front eight in the betting only have a combined probability of becoming the next leader of 53%, probably under half when you take the overround into account.

    Could the next Tory leader be any one of more than a dozen MPs not in the top eight? Or should most of the top eight be at shorter odds?

    Looking again at the chart you can see that the sum of the implied probabilities at the beginning of the period was about 58% for just the top three in the odds at that time. So the change is quite large.

    Perhaps it implies that Theresa May's leadership of the Tories will be so dire that there's a non-negligible probability that she will be the last leader of the Conservative Party...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,511
    edited January 25
    EU trying to ratchet up the "crisis" angle again to help keep Theresa May in power?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

    for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

    In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
    Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

    I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.
    In large parts of the country you could buy a house for under £20k in 1995.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,511
    GDP Day tomorrow for Q4 2017.

    Any predictions?
  • GIN1138 said:

    GDP Day tomorrow for Q4 2017.

    Any predictions?

    0.4
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,877

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

    for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

    In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
    Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

    I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.
    In large parts of the country you could buy a house for under £20k in 1995.
    All those terraced houses in Lancashire, south Wales, Nottingham, etc.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172
    Danny565 said:

    Williamson is dominating the front pages of the Telegraph and Mail. Surely not accidental...

    Williamson doing his "I'm dead hard, me" act again. He reminds me so much of a 14-year-old boy trying too much to win street cred.
    He's just the very latest is a series of right wing turds who are superficially pro defence but never felt the need to take the Queen's shilling in their youth themselves.

    Williamson is all about generating headlines not actual and useful defence capabilities.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GDP Day tomorrow for Q4 2017.

    Any predictions?

    Forexfactory is predicting 0.4%.

    I think there's a good possibility of upward revisions in earlier quarters because of the upwardly revised manufacturing and construction data which we have had recently.

    However the preliminary GDP estimate which we get tomorrow usually doesn't revise previous quarters so any revisions will have to wait at least a month.

    I'm not sure how this affects the RCS-DavidL bet.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 4,646

    I'm confused by the implied probability figures in the chart above. My understanding was that bookmakers odds converted to probabilities would normally sum too more than 100% - the excess, or overround, being one source of their profits in the long-term. So it's sure striking that the front eight in the betting only have a combined probability of becoming the next leader of 53%, probably under half when you take the overround into account.

    Could the next Tory leader be any one of more than a dozen MPs not in the top eight? Or should most of the top eight be at shorter odds?

    I have an explanation, but I don't know if it's correct. Have a look, see if this makes sense

    In classical bookmaking, you bet with the bookie, and lodge your money with him. He sets the odds and ensures that his full book has an overround. His profit is the difference between the money lodged and paid out, which will always be positive if the overound is positive

    But the "Betfair" above isn't Betfair Sportsbook, it's Betfair Exchange, which is exchange betting. In exchange betting you bet with another punter not the bookie: the bookie just holds the money until the bet is decided. In this scenario, there is no requirement for an overround since the bookie gets paid even if the overround is negative (I think they make their profit by interest paid on the money held, or by a small commission: happy to be contradicted if wrong).

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    edited January 25

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

    for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

    In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
    Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

    I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.
    In large parts of the country you could buy a house for under £20k in 1995.
    In 1992 I bought my first house, in Leicester for £46 000. It was possible to get them for circa £30 000 in cheaper parts of Leicester. While I could afford that on my junior doctors salary, it is worth noting that I was paying 12% interest. The price was lower, but the repayments were still about 35% of my salary.

    A friend bought a 3 bed terrace in Stoke for £17 000 in the late eighties. It had some nice original features, but also was in a subsidence area.
  • viewcode said:

    I'm confused by the implied probability figures in the chart above. My understanding was that bookmakers odds converted to probabilities would normally sum too more than 100% - the excess, or overround, being one source of their profits in the long-term. So it's sure striking that the front eight in the betting only have a combined probability of becoming the next leader of 53%, probably under half when you take the overround into account.

    Could the next Tory leader be any one of more than a dozen MPs not in the top eight? Or should most of the top eight be at shorter odds?

    I have an explanation, but I don't know if it's correct. Have a look, see if this makes sense

    In classical bookmaking, you bet with the bookie, and lodge your money with him. He sets the odds and ensures that his full book has an overround. His profit is the difference between the money lodged and paid out, which will always be positive if the overound is positive

    But the "Betfair" above isn't Betfair Sportsbook, it's Betfair Exchange, which is exchange betting. In exchange betting you bet with another punter not the bookie: the bookie just holds the money until the bet is decided. In this scenario, there is no requirement for an overround since the bookie gets paid even if the overround is negative (I think they make their profit by interest paid on the money held, or by a small commission: happy to be contradicted if wrong).

    Betfair Exchange takes a small commission on winnings.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 4,646

    viewcode said:

    I'm confused by the implied probability figures in the chart above. My understanding was that bookmakers odds converted to probabilities would normally sum too more than 100% - the excess, or overround, being one source of their profits in the long-term. So it's sure striking that the front eight in the betting only have a combined probability of becoming the next leader of 53%, probably under half when you take the overround into account.

    Could the next Tory leader be any one of more than a dozen MPs not in the top eight? Or should most of the top eight be at shorter odds?

    I have an explanation, but I don't know if it's correct. Have a look, see if this makes sense

    In classical bookmaking, you bet with the bookie, and lodge your money with him. He sets the odds and ensures that his full book has an overround. His profit is the difference between the money lodged and paid out, which will always be positive if the overound is positive

    But the "Betfair" above isn't Betfair Sportsbook, it's Betfair Exchange, which is exchange betting. In exchange betting you bet with another punter not the bookie: the bookie just holds the money until the bet is decided. In this scenario, there is no requirement for an overround since the bookie gets paid even if the overround is negative (I think they make their profit by interest paid on the money held, or by a small commission: happy to be contradicted if wrong).

    Betfair Exchange takes a small commission on winnings.
    Thank you, that is useful to know.
  • Good night everyone - sure there will be lots on politics and economics tomorrow
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 227
    edited January 25
    FPT
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:



    I don't think you buy a Victorian mansion for £99,000 in Islington, although it meets most of your other requirements apart from the fact it's in some small unimportant egotistical city in the east rather than God's Own Country. :smiley:

    Edit - more seriously, which part of Wales do you live in? Will admit I am asking purely out of curiosity so don't feel you have to answer.

    Islwyn though moved from Swansea recently.
    So very close to Caerphilly then? My mother's family was from there and we scattered her ashes on Caerphilly Mountain. Some very beautiful places in the Valleys, which I often think are under appreciated.
    Yeah very close, I'm in Caerphilly county borough. It is nice to have the mountains and all the green around. Used to work away in London, just put up in a hotel for the week was just too busy for me, think I prefer something a bit busier than here but it definitely has its charms. Nice for growing up going out camping in the mountains!
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 227
    The other consideration for a lot of millennials is not just paying these much higher house prices but having to save these much bigger deposits (which now require a higher percentage*) whilst paying much higher rents, because property is worth a lot more.

    *I'm not saying change this, there is sound logic behind it but it is another factor.
  • You can still buy houses for under £40k in Gainsborough. Now some look nasty as well as cheap but these two seem presentable:

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64958159.html
    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63165349.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    edited January 26

    You can still buy houses for under £40k in Gainsborough. Now some look nasty as well as cheap but these two seem presentable:

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64958159.html
    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63165349.html

    Gainsborough is not the bucolic idyll that the name suggests. I wouldn't recommend it, having worked in Lincs myself. Incidentally, both those houses asking prices are substantially less than they were a decade ago. The top one sold for £61000 in 2008, and has lost over a third of its value.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,646

    Maybe this demonstrates that TM is the person for this moment in time despite all her faults, but she is not the future

    Apparently she and Nick Timothy are the ones grooming Williamson.

    https://reaction.life/nick-timothy-propped-pm-weird-plot-make-gavin-williamson-tory-leader/

    The Mayite candidate when that contest eventually comes thus has a head start and is already in the cabinet. That is the defence secretary Gavin Williamson so vigorously promoted as the future of a grittier “Nottingham not Notting Hill” Conservatism, by Nick Timothy, May’s former chief of staff. Timothy still has a great influence on May, who has long relied on his political skills.
    No doubt that is so. The Mayites will, I think, unanimously back Gavin Williamson.

    That's the good news, from the point of view of Mr Williamson. The bad news is that there are precisely two Mayites amongst MPs, and zero elsewhere in the party.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 227
    If you are buying a house that cheap then you are looking out for brothels, crack dens and the like, the kind of local amenities that indicate affordability.
  • Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    FTPT:

    Here's the chart from the ONS report, look at the incredible reversal of home ownership by age over the years

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    In 1991 over a third of 16-24 year olds owned a home, now it is less that 10%.

    for 25-24 year olds it went from ~66% home ownership in 1991 to ~33% ownership

    In 1991 ~78% of 35-44 year olds owned their home, now it is ~58%.
    Conversely in 1991 52% of 75+ year olds owned there home, now it's ~75%

    I graduated university in 1995. I'm staggered by those numbers. Neither I - nor any of my peers - bought homes before the second half of our 20s.
    In large parts of the country you could buy a house for under £20k in 1995.
    In 1992 I bought my first house, in Leicester for £46 000. It was possible to get them for circa £30 000 in cheaper parts of Leicester. While I could afford that on my junior doctors salary, it is worth noting that I was paying 12% interest. The price was lower, but the repayments were still about 35% of my salary.

    A friend bought a 3 bed terrace in Stoke for £17 000 in the late eighties. It had some nice original features, but also was in a subsidence area.
    Of course savings accounts also had much higher interest rates in that era.

    And with much lower levels of personal debt a deposit could be saved up much quicker than today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    chloe said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Tories losing control of Westminster council could be the final straw for Theresa May if it happens.

    Labour are very likely to win the popular vote in Westminster but their vote tends to be concentrated in a few wards in the north of the borough.

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/20/
    So the Tories are likely to hold Westminster in seat terms then, given Ed Miliband won most votes and seats in the 2014 local elections when the seats up in May were last up the results may not be as bad for the Tories as some expect, especially given the UKIP vote will also be well down
    It is looking very dodgy in Barnet for the Tories
    Though the Jewish vote will help
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    If either Rees-Mogg or Boris gets to the Tory membership vote they would almost certainly win it and the leadership but that is still by no means a certainty given the MPs choose the final two

    That is why Jeremy Hunt should be taken somewhat seriously.

    I expect Rudd or Davis would be more likely to get to the final two than Hunt, though as I said either JRM or Boris would likely win it if they got there. Hunt neither enthuses the left or the right and has little charisma, certainly compared to someone like Boris, I fail to see how he beats Corbyn

    I admit Hunt appeals to Blairites like me....but there are very of us living in the Labour Party
    Would you vote for a Hunt led Tories over Labour and the LDs that is the question? If not all your admiration for him does the Tories no good
    I absolutely would vote for a Hunt over Corbyn Labour Party a gazillion times over if Hunt committed to a second referendum....admittedly putting my cross into a Tory box would make me feel slightly light headed....


    Except Hunt has said he is now a Leaver and would not commit to a second referendum
    So what is to stop him becoming a Remainer again?
    Ambition
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,646
    edited January 26
    Apparently we are to believe that in 25 years time no-one will own a house.

    That seems odd, unless I suppose the successors to the Corbyn revolution will have nationalised housing by then.
This discussion has been closed.