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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Part 2 of why the Tories should not fear Corbyn becoming PM in

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited January 30 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Part 2 of why the Tories should not fear Corbyn becoming PM in the foreseeable future

Given the tightness of Mrs. May’s parliamentary position one way that could get Corbyn close to number ten is if LAB could pick up seats off CON in by-elections.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,612
    edited January 30
    FPT there was discussion of Free Ports - readers may have missed that the mayor of Tees Valley is calling for Teesport to become a Free Port.


    EDIT: Also, First. I am king of the internet.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,563
    edited January 30
    Second, making me Crown Prince of the Internet.

    FPT (sorry):
    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    "I se that Brexit has once again this morning become a holy grail for Leavers."

    It's becoming that way. It's a sign that the ignored still have a say, despite the superior prognostications of the self-elected elite. A beacon for true democracy.

    I voted Leave and would vote Leave again, but why should I have to?

    Nobody is asking anyone to vote on the same question again. The disingenuous comments on those advocating a "Second Referendum" start with calling it a second referendum because it implies all that happens is the same question will be asked again. More accurately, the 2016 Referendum was the Second Referendum following the first in 1975.

    The term "Second Referendum" has been jumped on by those desperate for us to leave the EU as some form of subversion of democracy and we've had months on here of people banging on ad nauseam about "defying the will of the people".

    What was suggested was a referendum on the outcome of the A50 negotiations and only then IF a treaty had been concluded between the UK Government and the EU.

    Sounds reasonable - superficially perhaps but the gaping hole in the argument is what would rejecting the Treaty mean. One interpretation of the A50 process is if the British people rejected the negotiated Treaty the UK would leave the EU without any form of agreement and it would be WTO rules etc. Another is the rejection would send the process back to the beginning and would be an instruction to the Government to continue negotiation until an acceptable Treaty could be produced. Yet another interpretation could be the UK had decided to stop the whole thing and remain in the EU on the terms prevailing on 23/6/16.

    None of these contradictory interpretations can be tested and verified - just as people voted LEAVE for a myriad of reasons so rejecting an A50 Treaty could be for many and varied reasons and without knowing what those were the referendum isn't a referendum at all.

    So if you don't want to crash out of the EU without an agreement, you have to accept whatever gruel May and Davis dish up.

    There is a converse here - let's say we do crash out without an agreement. IF, and it's a big if, that proves to be the economically dislocating event some believe it to be, the argument for seeking to re-join the EU might start to look attractive.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,086
    edited January 30
    I feel this generation are missing out.

    It was only when I got to university, some four years after the event, that someone finally explained to me why Stephen Milligan died with an orange in his mouth.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172



    It was only when I got to university, some four years after the event, that someone explained to me why Stephen Milligan died with an orange in his mouth.

    There's a DUP joke in there somewhere...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010

    I feel this generation are missing out.

    It was only when I got to university, some four years after the event, that someone explained to me why Stephen Milligan died with an orange in his mouth.

    A true orangeman.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    On the by-election point: worth making a note whenever there's an interesting one (not like the one we've got coming up), just in case we end up with a lovely Richmond Park mistake come the General Election.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 892
    Surely the death rate of MPs should be predicted by demographic data, not party trends
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487
    Kleenex alert for a certain tranche of PBers - Johnny Mercer is being interviewed on the Victoria Derbyshire programme this morning.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,563
    As an aside, are MPs getting elected younger ? We seem to have more and more 30 and 40 somethings in Parliament which would obviate against by-elections.

    The clutch of Cameron-inspired Conservatives who became active post 2005 in their 20s and 30s and got elected in 2010 and 2015 will be around for a while as will the new younger Labour MPs of the 2017 intake.

    Go back to the 1950s and there seemed to be 15-20 by-elections every year.
  • Surely the death rate of MPs should be predicted by demographic data, not party trends

    The Tories since around 2006 have been making sure they retire most of their older MPs.

    I think Labour have way more MPs aged over 70 than the Tories.
  • Scott_P said:
    And they will talk and no one will change their stance - it is all so polarised
  • Freggles said:

    FPT there was discussion of Free Ports - readers may have missed that the mayor of Tees Valley is calling for Teesport to become a Free Port.

    He is indeed. Problem is that he's a clown. Ran an absurd campaign based on two main policies - renationalise Durham Tees Valley Airport, and get special EU status for the Parmo (Teesside "food"). Then he accidentally narrowly won (much to his displeasure apparently) and found that as Mayor his pay is £20k less than his SPAD and that hsi authority to do anything is basically zero.

    Then Peel Holdings - owners of said airport - quietly issue a press release pointing out that although the new mayor said during the campaign that he was in advanced discussions with them about taking back control, in fact no discussions had taken place or would take place as the airport isn't for sale. Not that the Tees Mayor has the legal authority to nationalise a Parmo never mind an airport.

    So yes, he wants a Freeport. Presumably to allow the tax free export of Parmo takeaways to non-EU markets. Or in reality he needs to say something - anything - to try and sound like he still exists and has a job that has any meaning.

    Mind you. If we get WTO Hard Brexit a Freeport might end up as the least worst option.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    A positive is that Corbyn continues to enjoy better personal ratings than May.


    Latest Ipsos Mori has them tied on 38 each for “Satisfied” - both easily 10 points ahead of their predecessors’ lows.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995

    I feel this generation are missing out.

    It was only when I got to university, some four years after the event, that someone finally explained to me why Stephen Milligan died with an orange in his mouth.

    Also Michael Hutchence of INXS....
  • A positive is that Corbyn continues to enjoy better personal ratings than May.


    Latest Ipsos Mori has them tied on 38 each for “Satisfied” - both easily 10 points ahead of their predecessors’ lows.

    How long did it take Dave to achieve his low?

    Did it take as long as Mrs May?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    Unsurprisingly

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/29/theresa-may-reject-eu-transition-offer-fight-citizens-rights/

    "Theresa May will reject the EU’s proposed deal on the Brexit transition period and go into battle next week over freedom of movement and so-called “rule taking”."
  • Freggles said:

    FPT there was discussion of Free Ports - readers may have missed that the mayor of Tees Valley is calling for Teesport to become a Free Port.

    He is indeed. Problem is that he's a clown. Ran an absurd campaign based on two main policies - renationalise Durham Tees Valley Airport, and get special EU status for the Parmo (Teesside "food"). Then he accidentally narrowly won (much to his displeasure apparently) and found that as Mayor his pay is £20k less than his SPAD and that hsi authority to do anything is basically zero.

    Then Peel Holdings - owners of said airport - quietly issue a press release pointing out that although the new mayor said during the campaign that he was in advanced discussions with them about taking back control, in fact no discussions had taken place or would take place as the airport isn't for sale. Not that the Tees Mayor has the legal authority to nationalise a Parmo never mind an airport.

    So yes, he wants a Freeport. Presumably to allow the tax free export of Parmo takeaways to non-EU markets. Or in reality he needs to say something - anything - to try and sound like he still exists and has a job that has any meaning.

    Mind you. If we get WTO Hard Brexit a Freeport might end up as the least worst option.
    I've never heard of the Parmo before:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parmo

    I wonder if on Italian or Spanish tv they have chefs visiting obscure parts of Britain eulogising about the local street food in the manner Rick Stien does in their countries.

    After the Boro Parmo they could try the Hull Pattie.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savoury_pattie
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,780

    Surely the death rate of MPs should be predicted by demographic data, not party trends

    The Tories since around 2006 have been making sure they retire most of their older MPs.

    I think Labour have way more MPs aged over 70 than the Tories.
    Labour MPs do seem to go on and on. Maybe they're more motivated politically and so can't give it up. It certainly can't be money.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487

    Freggles said:

    FPT there was discussion of Free Ports - readers may have missed that the mayor of Tees Valley is calling for Teesport to become a Free Port.

    He is indeed. Problem is that he's a clown. Ran an absurd campaign based on two main policies - renationalise Durham Tees Valley Airport, and get special EU status for the Parmo (Teesside "food"). Then he accidentally narrowly won (much to his displeasure apparently) and found that as Mayor his pay is £20k less than his SPAD and that hsi authority to do anything is basically zero.

    Then Peel Holdings - owners of said airport - quietly issue a press release pointing out that although the new mayor said during the campaign that he was in advanced discussions with them about taking back control, in fact no discussions had taken place or would take place as the airport isn't for sale. Not that the Tees Mayor has the legal authority to nationalise a Parmo never mind an airport.

    So yes, he wants a Freeport. Presumably to allow the tax free export of Parmo takeaways to non-EU markets. Or in reality he needs to say something - anything - to try and sound like he still exists and has a job that has any meaning.

    Mind you. If we get WTO Hard Brexit a Freeport might end up as the least worst option.
    You're making me feel hungry! I haven't had a proper Parmo (out of a pizza box) in over two years, but I did manage to get a posh version in an Italian restaurant a while back.

    Anyway, back to the political point - these city-region mayors, or whatever they are called, are clearly pointless, imposed against the desires of the local population. Look at the shambles in Yorkshire. They almost make Police & Crime Commissioners look like a good idea.
  • Surely the death rate of MPs should be predicted by demographic data, not party trends

    The Tories since around 2006 have been making sure they retire most of their older MPs.

    I think Labour have way more MPs aged over 70 than the Tories.
    Labour MPs do seem to go on and on. Maybe they're more motivated politically and so can't give it up. It certainly can't be money.
    I think it helps if your party leader has the power of patronage.

    A peerage or being a board member of a QUANGO might help you quit the Commons.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530

    Surely the death rate of MPs should be predicted by demographic data, not party trends

    They are correlated. Posh people stopped smoking first. Now nobody smokes, so the difference should level out.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 265

    Surely the death rate of MPs should be predicted by demographic data, not party trends

    The Tories since around 2006 have been making sure they retire most of their older MPs.

    I think Labour have way more MPs aged over 70 than the Tories.
    Labour MPs do seem to go on and on. Maybe they're more motivated politically and so can't give it up. It certainly can't be money.
    Ken Clarke is doing his bit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    Though May still leads Corbyn as best PM. Of course Labour needs three by election gains from the Tories to stop the Tory + DUP majority but even then Corbyn would only become PM with SNP, Plaid, Green, LD, Sinn Fein and Lady Harmon support which would be very unstable
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487

    Freggles said:

    FPT there was discussion of Free Ports - readers may have missed that the mayor of Tees Valley is calling for Teesport to become a Free Port.

    He is indeed. Problem is that he's a clown. Ran an absurd campaign based on two main policies - renationalise Durham Tees Valley Airport, and get special EU status for the Parmo (Teesside "food"). Then he accidentally narrowly won (much to his displeasure apparently) and found that as Mayor his pay is £20k less than his SPAD and that hsi authority to do anything is basically zero.

    Then Peel Holdings - owners of said airport - quietly issue a press release pointing out that although the new mayor said during the campaign that he was in advanced discussions with them about taking back control, in fact no discussions had taken place or would take place as the airport isn't for sale. Not that the Tees Mayor has the legal authority to nationalise a Parmo never mind an airport.

    So yes, he wants a Freeport. Presumably to allow the tax free export of Parmo takeaways to non-EU markets. Or in reality he needs to say something - anything - to try and sound like he still exists and has a job that has any meaning.

    Mind you. If we get WTO Hard Brexit a Freeport might end up as the least worst option.
    I've never heard of the Parmo before:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parmo

    I wonder if on Italian or Spanish tv they have chefs visiting obscure parts of Britain eulogising about the local street food in the manner Rick Stien does in their countries.

    After the Boro Parmo they could try the Hull Pattie.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savoury_pattie
    Every time I see someone tucking into a Greggs I rave about the authentic street food culture.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543

    Surely the death rate of MPs should be predicted by demographic data, not party trends

    It would be interesting to see an actuarial analysis of their age distribution, adjusted for their generally privileged lifestyles.
  • Freggles said:

    FPT there was discussion of Free Ports - readers may have missed that the mayor of Tees Valley is calling for Teesport to become a Free Port.

    He is indeed. Problem is that he's a clown. Ran an absurd campaign based on two main policies - renationalise Durham Tees Valley Airport, and get special EU status for the Parmo (Teesside "food"). Then he accidentally narrowly won (much to his displeasure apparently) and found that as Mayor his pay is £20k less than his SPAD and that hsi authority to do anything is basically zero.

    Then Peel Holdings - owners of said airport - quietly issue a press release pointing out that although the new mayor said during the campaign that he was in advanced discussions with them about taking back control, in fact no discussions had taken place or would take place as the airport isn't for sale. Not that the Tees Mayor has the legal authority to nationalise a Parmo never mind an airport.

    So yes, he wants a Freeport. Presumably to allow the tax free export of Parmo takeaways to non-EU markets. Or in reality he needs to say something - anything - to try and sound like he still exists and has a job that has any meaning.

    Mind you. If we get WTO Hard Brexit a Freeport might end up as the least worst option.
    I've never heard of the Parmo before:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parmo

    I wonder if on Italian or Spanish tv they have chefs visiting obscure parts of Britain eulogising about the local street food in the manner Rick Stien does in their countries.

    After the Boro Parmo they could try the Hull Pattie.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savoury_pattie
    We get fish patties up here as well.

    TBH a Parmo wasn't something I'd ever heard of until I moved here. And even then it doesn't have much reach outside Teesside. But if you want takeaway badness it can't be beaten.

    Highest Quality shaped and processed Chicken "Breast". Coated in breadcrumbs. Layer of Bechamel Sauce. Ton of grated cheese on top. Serve floated on a bed of takeaway chips with either a side salad or preferably "creamed cabbage".

    A Full Size Parmo is comfortably serves two. A half size is called a "Ladies" Parmo in some places. Like you're not a real man unless you can eat 1,400 calories of chicken and cheese...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Rentool, aye. It's tosh, when we need an English Parliament instead.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:



    Economically, I think the good news has outweighed the bad over the past 18 months. I cannot categorically say that this is due to the Brexit vote, or that it will continue in the future, or that the news would not have been better still if the vote had gone the other way. But, it's been a lot better than most forecasters expected.
    The developed world, and in particular the Eurozone, has put on a significant spurt of growth in the last 18 months.

    I don't think that's due to Brexit, more to savings rates across the world now returning to more normal levels after having been elevated for some time.
    I agree.

    It is yet another level of complication for Brexit performance. When Osborne took over in 2010 the policy of "austerity" was substantially overstated compared to the reality. The result was that the UK economy continued to be stimulated by very large government deficits. This could have been offset by very poor wage growth but the Great British consumer dug into their already meagre savings to keep consumption growing. The result was that the UK outperformed the rest of the EU (where the German dominated ECB was imposing a much harsher regime) by a considerable distance.

    In more recent times our deficit has in fact fallen to more "normal" levels. At the same time the consumer has found it more difficult to maintain spending after a very prolonged fall in real wages. The BoE has also stopped QE. All of these have resulted in a slow down in the UK economy although they have been offset by the fall in Sterling after the Brexit vote to some extent. In contrast the ECB has relaxed monetary policy somewhat on the continent belatedly taking up QE and the EU consumer has picked up the baton from the UK consumer to some degree. The result is that their growth has accelerated.

    This really emphasises Robert's main point. The domestic policies of governments are vastly more important to growth than any possible friction arising in trade. Trying to identify a Brexit effect on growth will be impossible because domestic policy will completely swamp the marginal effects.
    For all the talk of 'living within your means' most people want to spend more than they earn and want the government to provide the means for them to do so.

    Two decades of that being put into practice is now finally coming to an end.
    Two decades only? It's as if they massive tax cuts and public utilities of the 80s never happened.

    It's more like 35 years of credit fueled spending.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    Surely the death rate of MPs should be predicted by demographic data, not party trends

    The Tories since around 2006 have been making sure they retire most of their older MPs.

    I think Labour have way more MPs aged over 70 than the Tories.
    I think more Tories have made money before politics in the City and business etc and therefore have a bigger pot than Labour MPs to retire on
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    Last three words not required from JRM.


  • Freggles said:

    FPT there was discussion of Free Ports - readers may have missed that the mayor of Tees Valley is calling for Teesport to become a Free Port.

    He is indeed. Problem is that he's a clown. Ran an absurd campaign based on two main policies - renationalise Durham Tees Valley Airport, and get special EU status for the Parmo (Teesside "food"). Then he accidentally narrowly won (much to his displeasure apparently) and found that as Mayor his pay is £20k less than his SPAD and that hsi authority to do anything is basically zero.

    Then Peel Holdings - owners of said airport - quietly issue a press release pointing out that although the new mayor said during the campaign that he was in advanced discussions with them about taking back control, in fact no discussions had taken place or would take place as the airport isn't for sale. Not that the Tees Mayor has the legal authority to nationalise a Parmo never mind an airport.

    So yes, he wants a Freeport. Presumably to allow the tax free export of Parmo takeaways to non-EU markets. Or in reality he needs to say something - anything - to try and sound like he still exists and has a job that has any meaning.

    Mind you. If we get WTO Hard Brexit a Freeport might end up as the least worst option.
    I've never heard of the Parmo before:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parmo

    I wonder if on Italian or Spanish tv they have chefs visiting obscure parts of Britain eulogising about the local street food in the manner Rick Stien does in their countries.

    After the Boro Parmo they could try the Hull Pattie.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savoury_pattie
    We get fish patties up here as well.

    TBH a Parmo wasn't something I'd ever heard of until I moved here. And even then it doesn't have much reach outside Teesside. But if you want takeaway badness it can't be beaten.

    Highest Quality shaped and processed Chicken "Breast". Coated in breadcrumbs. Layer of Bechamel Sauce. Ton of grated cheese on top. Serve floated on a bed of takeaway chips with either a side salad or preferably "creamed cabbage".

    A Full Size Parmo is comfortably serves two. A half size is called a "Ladies" Parmo in some places. Like you're not a real man unless you can eat 1,400 calories of chicken and cheese...
    Sounds like it should be followed by a deep fried Mars bar.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 747
    Age Lab Con LD SNP other All
    < 40 20% 14% 17% 31% 21% 18%
    40-60 52% 67% 67% 60% 50% 60%
    60+ 27% 19% 17% 9% 29% 22%

    Age of MPs at 2017 election per : http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7483/CBP-7483.pdf

    Since 1979 the number of over 60s and over 70s has been increasing.
  • Anyway, back to the political point - these city-region mayors, or whatever they are called, are clearly pointless, imposed against the desires of the local population. Look at the shambles in Yorkshire. They almost make Police & Crime Commissioners look like a good idea.

    The Tees Valley Mayor was something nobody wanted. In the end the leaderships of the councils realised that they either back it or they would have even more money taken off them by the government. So the plan was use the Mayor's job not to drive their own agenda but to coordinate activities and policies across council boundaries. Thats all it was worth hence the £35k pathetic salary for the "Mayor".

    As the Tories won with their nationalisation policy, instead the Mayor attacks all of the councils for imposing damaging cuts (driven by their government grant being cut to £zero by his party). The councils are still getting on with trying to coordinate, but instead of dealing with issues that actually matter they have to respond to nonsense like "lets have a Freeport"

    As for the Yorkshire one, its a great example of what happens when neighbouring areas disagree. We had the same up here - we've had separate "independence" referenda in Thornaby and Yarm from local blowhard politicians who hate Stockton. Both narrowly voted "yes" on a 20% turnout but disagreed as to what they should do if they had the power to break away from the unitary authority which they don't. So the proposed "Communities of Ingleby Thornaby and Yarm" authority proposed by Thornaby Town Council was rejected out of hand by town councils in Ingleby and Yarm.

    Whilst we're on the subject of pointless, Town Councils. Which are Parish councils in a posh frock. Utterly pointless. And I say that as a Thornaby Town Councillor...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited January 30

    Anyway, back to the political point - these city-region mayors, or whatever they are called, are clearly pointless, imposed against the desires of the local population. Look at the shambles in Yorkshire. They almost make Police & Crime Commissioners look like a good idea.

    The Tees Valley Mayor was something nobody wanted. In the end the leaderships of the councils realised that they either back it or they would have even more money taken off them by the government. So the plan was use the Mayor's job not to drive their own agenda but to coordinate activities and policies across council boundaries. Thats all it was worth hence the £35k pathetic salary for the "Mayor".

    As the Tories won with their nationalisation policy, instead the Mayor attacks all of the councils for imposing damaging cuts (driven by their government grant being cut to £zero by his party). The councils are still getting on with trying to coordinate, but instead of dealing with issues that actually matter they have to respond to nonsense like "lets have a Freeport"

    As for the Yorkshire one, its a great example of what happens when neighbouring areas disagree. We had the same up here - we've had separate "independence" referenda in Thornaby and Yarm from local blowhard politicians who hate Stockton. Both narrowly voted "yes" on a 20% turnout but disagreed as to what they should do if they had the power to break away from the unitary authority which they don't. So the proposed "Communities of Ingleby Thornaby and Yarm" authority proposed by Thornaby Town Council was rejected out of hand by town councils in Ingleby and Yarm.

    Whilst we're on the subject of pointless, Town Councils. Which are Parish councils in a posh frock. Utterly pointless. And I say that as a Thornaby Town Councillor...
    Parish and town councils are actually the closest level of government to their local communities. In terms of organising local events and maintaining local facilities and publicising the community, they play a key role
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
  • A DRIVER who took a wrong turn said he bitterly regrets asking directions from a woman who turned out to be the prime minister.

    Martin Bishop, who got lost near Chequers, the prime minister’s weekend residence in Buckinghamshire, saw Mrs May from a distance and thought she looked like a ‘safe pair of hands’.


    But, he confirmed, this proved to be a ‘calamitous miscalculation’.

    Bishop said: “I asked her the quickest way to A418 as I was trying to get to Leighton Buzzard and she replied, ‘We are committed to the A418 which we regard as an important partner’.

    “I said ‘Yes, but which way do I go?’ to which she said, ‘the government values its relationship with the A418 going forward’.

    “I said, ‘but what if I was planning to go forward, right now, towards Leighton Buzzard?’. To which she replied, ‘Philip Hammond’s recent comments about the A418 are not government policy’.”

    Bishop added: “At this point I told her to just fuck off. She seemed genuinely surprised.”


    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/driver-who-asked-theresa-may-for-directions-wished-he-was-dead-20180129143338
  • Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:


    The developed world, and in particular the Eurozone, has put on a significant spurt of growth in the last 18 months.

    I don't think that's due to Brexit, more to savings rates across the world now returning to more normal levels after having been elevated for some time.

    I agree.

    It is yet another level of complication for Brexit performance. When Osborne took over in 2010 the policy of "austerity" was substantially overstated compared to the reality. The result was that the UK economy continued to be stimulated by very large government deficits. This could have been offset by very poor wage growth but the Great British consumer dug into their already meagre savings to keep consumption growing. The result was that the UK outperformed the rest of the EU (where the German dominated ECB was imposing a much harsher regime) by a considerable distance.

    In more recent times our deficit has in fact fallen to more "normal" levels. At the same time the consumer has found it more difficult to maintain spending after a very prolonged fall in real wages. The BoE has also stopped QE. All of these have resulted in a slow down in the UK economy although they have been offset by the fall in Sterling after the Brexit vote to some extent. In contrast the ECB has relaxed monetary policy somewhat on the continent belatedly taking up QE and the EU consumer has picked up the baton from the UK consumer to some degree. The result is that their growth has accelerated.

    This really emphasises Robert's main point. The domestic policies of governments are vastly more important to growth than any possible friction arising in trade. Trying to identify a Brexit effect on growth will be impossible because domestic policy will completely swamp the marginal effects.
    For all the talk of 'living within your means' most people want to spend more than they earn and want the government to provide the means for them to do so.

    Two decades of that being put into practice is now finally coming to an end.
    Two decades only? It's as if they massive tax cuts and public utilities of the 80s never happened.

    It's more like 35 years of credit fueled spending.
    For all the loadsamoney and red braced yuppie froth, personal borrowing and spending was much lower in that era and government debt reached a low about 1991.

    The UK also managed to run trade surpluses for much of the 1980s while the toursim deficit was much smaller then.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    With JRM - I would say UK.

    If it was Rome he would be Pro-EU.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,086
    edited January 30
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    His loyalty is to Rome.

    From 2013.

    Tory MP Rees-Mogg: ‘I take my whip from the Roman Catholic Church’

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.pinknews.co.uk/2013/02/04/tory-mp-rees-mogg-i-take-my-whip-from-the-roman-catholic-church/amp/

    I’m coming to the conclusion that the recent decision to overturn the anti Catholic laws might have been a mistake.

    Just imagine the frottaging among Leavers if Sadiq Khan had said he took his whip from Mecca.
  • eekeek Posts: 1,943
    HYUFD said:

    Anyway, back to the political point - these city-region mayors, or whatever they are called, are clearly pointless, imposed against the desires of the local population. Look at the shambles in Yorkshire. They almost make Police & Crime Commissioners look like a good idea.

    The Tees Valley Mayor was something nobody wanted. In the end the leaderships of the councils realised that they either back it or they would have even more money taken off them by the government. So the plan was use the Mayor's job not to drive their own agenda but to coordinate activities and policies across council boundaries. Thats all it was worth hence the £35k pathetic salary for the "Mayor".

    As the Tories won with their nationalisation policy, instead the Mayor attacks all of the councils for imposing damaging cuts (driven by their government grant being cut to £zero by his party). The councils are still getting on with trying to coordinate, but instead of dealing with issues that actually matter they have to respond to nonsense like "lets have a Freeport"

    As for the Yorkshire one, its a great example of what happens when neighbouring areas disagree. We had the same up here - we've had separate "independence" referenda in Thornaby and Yarm from local blowhard politicians who hate Stockton. Both narrowly voted "yes" on a 20% turnout but disagreed as to what they should do if they had the power to break away from the unitary authority which they don't. So the proposed "Communities of Ingleby Thornaby and Yarm" authority proposed by Thornaby Town Council was rejected out of hand by town councils in Ingleby and Yarm.

    Whilst we're on the subject of pointless, Town Councils. Which are Parish councils in a posh frock. Utterly pointless. And I say that as a Thornaby Town Councillor...
    Parish and town councils are actually the closest level of government to their local communities. In terms of organising local events and maintaining local facilities and publicising the community, they play a key role
    Possibly not in Thornaby...

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,272
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    He's stated that on matters like abortion and same-sex marriage he takes his whip from the Roman Catholic church.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    With JRM - I would say UK.

    If it was Rome he would be Pro-EU.

    So if the UK passed a law saying he had to do something which was contrary to RC belief he would do it?

    I suppose tolerating abortion is a vague analogy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    MPs Born in the 1930s:
    Skinner (Lab) 1932
    Flynn (Lab) 1935
    Clwyd (Lab) 1937
    Robinson (Lab) 1938

    Lab: 4 Con: 0

    MPs born in the 1940s:
    Clarke (Con) 1940
    Cash (Con) 1940
    Sheerman (Lab) 1940
    Cunningham (Lab) 1941
    Hopkins (Lab) 1941
    Field (Lab) 1942
    Campbell (Lab) 1943
    Beckett (Lab) 1943
    Gale (Con) 1943
    Hodge (Lab) 1944
    Bottomley (Con) 1944
    Bailey (Lab) 1945
    Ellman (Lab) 1945
    Crausby (Lab) 1946
    Hoey (Lab) 1946
    Coffey (Lab) 1946
    Beresford (Con) 1946
    Barron (Lab) 1946
    Godsiff (Lab) 1946
    Chope (Con) 1947
    Spellar (Lab) 1947
    Howarth (Lab) 1947
    Sharma (Lab) 1947
    Pound (Lab) 1948
    Davis (Con) 1948
    Dromey (Lab) 1948
    Soames (Con) 1948
    Corbyn (Lab) 1949
    Simpson (Con) 1949
    Knight (Con) 1949
    Evennett (Con) 1949
    Stewart (Con) 1949

    Lab: 20 Con: 12

    Total born before 1950: Lab: 24, Con: 12
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,908
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    With JRM - I would say UK.

    If it was Rome he would be Pro-EU.

    So if the UK passed a law saying he had to do something which was contrary to RC belief he would do it?

    I suppose tolerating abortion is a vague analogy.
    For the record, I oppose post-natal abortion.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,527
    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    The last time that phrase was used:

    John Biffen.
    " He called the results "Black Thursday", said the Conservatives needed to fight the next general election on a "balanced ticket" and that "no one seriously supposes that the Prime Minister would be Prime Minister throughout the entire period of the next Parliament".[6] This alienated him from Thatcher and resulted in his being dropped from the Cabinet after the 1987 General Election. His axing was no surprise, in that Thatcher's press secretary Bernard Ingham had already famously called him a "semi-detached" member of the Cabinet. Thatcher in her memoirs described Biffen's desire for a balanced ticket as "foolish" and "a recipe for paralysis."[7] In the month after his sacking Biffen criticised Thatcher's government as a "Stalinist regime"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    A positive is that Corbyn continues to enjoy better personal ratings than May.


    Latest Ipsos Mori has them tied on 38 each for “Satisfied” - both easily 10 points ahead of their predecessors’ lows.

    How long did it take Dave to achieve his low?

    Did it take as long as Mrs May?
    Cameron's 'Satisfaction' rating was 38% in January 2011 - same as May's now
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    With JRM - I would say UK.

    If it was Rome he would be Pro-EU.

    So if the UK passed a law saying he had to do something which was contrary to RC belief he would do it?

    I suppose tolerating abortion is a vague analogy.
    I expect that if the government passed a law that explicitly required him to act contrary to his beliefs, for example making Anglican worship compulsory, then he would defy it.
  • A positive is that Corbyn continues to enjoy better personal ratings than May.


    Latest Ipsos Mori has them tied on 38 each for “Satisfied” - both easily 10 points ahead of their predecessors’ lows.

    How long did it take Dave to achieve his low?

    Did it take as long as Mrs May?
    Cameron's 'Satisfaction' rating was 38% in January 2011 - same as May's now
    That’s not the net rating is it though?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652
    Good stuff - as usual - from Stepehn Bush on the Youthquake that didn't happen, but sort of did, actually:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/01/was-jeremy-corbyn-s-youthquake-all-hot-air

    The key takeaway is that Labour would benefit electorally if it switched its education spending priorities away from subsidising middle class students and their parents to focusing relentlessly on pre-school and primary. Which, of course, is what Angela Rayner was arguing for before the last election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    He's stated that on matters like abortion and same-sex marriage he takes his whip from the Roman Catholic church.
    So he is happy to give up sovereignty to a non-UK body.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    With JRM - I would say UK.

    If it was Rome he would be Pro-EU.

    So if the UK passed a law saying he had to do something which was contrary to RC belief he would do it?

    I suppose tolerating abortion is a vague analogy.
    Fortunately the Uk has moved on so far from the medieval views of the RC church that these papist policies are irrelevant and have no chance of being repealed.

    Even Imam Mayor Khan in London hasn't got much further than banning bikini posters on the tube.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    But the biggest question ought to be: how reliable is the analysis anyway? The Treasury’s short term analysis of the impact of a vote to leave forecast that between the EU referendum and now, cumulative GDP growth would be at best 0pc and at worst -2.2pc. But the economy has actually grown by 2.8pc. Again, don’t expect any BBC outlet to tell you that.

    So, the Treasury analysis was nonsense then, and it’s nonsense now. You just can’t predict something as complicated as the Brexit effect in the economy one year ahead, let alone 15 years.


    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/01/what-the-bbc-wont-tell-you-about-the-leaked-brexit-forecasts/
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    With JRM - I would say UK.

    If it was Rome he would be Pro-EU.

    So if the UK passed a law saying he had to do something which was contrary to RC belief he would do it?

    I suppose tolerating abortion is a vague analogy.
    I expect that if the government passed a law that explicitly required him to act contrary to his beliefs, for example making Anglican worship compulsory, then he would defy it.
    So would a lot more of us!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    A positive is that Corbyn continues to enjoy better personal ratings than May.


    Latest Ipsos Mori has them tied on 38 each for “Satisfied” - both easily 10 points ahead of their predecessors’ lows.

    How long did it take Dave to achieve his low?

    Did it take as long as Mrs May?
    Cameron's 'Satisfaction' rating was 38% in January 2011 - same as May's now
    That’s not the net rating is it though?
    Since they add up to 100 - they're identical.......
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Good stuff - as usual - from Stepehn Bush on the Youthquake that didn't happen, but sort of did, actually:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/01/was-jeremy-corbyn-s-youthquake-all-hot-air

    The key takeaway is that Labour would benefit electorally if it switched its education spending priorities away from subsidising middle class students and their parents to focusing relentlessly on pre-school and primary. Which, of course, is what Angela Rayner was arguing for before the last election.


    Child care ranks high in the YouGov 'progressive policies':

  • Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    Did you feel the same when Boris Johnson banned some Christian advertising on buses during his tenure as Mayor?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    There should be nothing wrong with using one's looks to get ahead in life.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    Did you feel the same when Boris Johnson banned some Christian advertising on buses during his tenure as Mayor?
    I'd much rather see a fit woman in bikini on an advert on the tube than some god bothering nonsense so no.

  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,975
    edited January 30

    But the biggest question ought to be: how reliable is the analysis anyway? The Treasury’s short term analysis of the impact of a vote to leave forecast that between the EU referendum and now, cumulative GDP growth would be at best 0pc and at worst -2.2pc. But the economy has actually grown by 2.8pc. Again, don’t expect any BBC outlet to tell you that.

    So, the Treasury analysis was nonsense then, and it’s nonsense now. You just can’t predict something as complicated as the Brexit effect in the economy one year ahead, let alone 15 years.


    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/01/what-the-bbc-wont-tell-you-about-the-leaked-brexit-forecasts/

    Rather sad that the Spectator has to play the fool in order to try and defend Brexit.

    Either free trade is good because it increases economic growth or it doesn't. The Tories used to know which side of the argument they stood on.
  • Sean_F said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    There should be nothing wrong with using one's looks to get ahead in life.
    And nothing wrong with talentless thickies struggling to find work when the Grid Girl jobs disappear
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    They are not "girls" they are women.

    And presenting them as a notional prize in a sporting event is a disgusting anachronism that can't last much longer.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    Did you feel the same when Boris Johnson banned some Christian advertising on buses during his tenure as Mayor?
    It wasn't Boris - it was TFL - and the High Court upheld the ban:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-28570436

    And I think 'anti-gay' might be a more accurate description than 'Christian'
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyway, back to the political point - these city-region mayors, or whatever they are called, are clearly pointless, imposed against the desires of the local population. Look at the shambles in Yorkshire. They almost make Police & Crime Commissioners look like a good idea.

    The Tees Valley Mayor was something nobody wanted. In the end the leaderships of the councils realised that they either back it or they would have even more money taken off them by the government. So the plan was use the Mayor's job not to drive their own agenda but to coordinate activities and policies across council boundaries. Thats all it was worth hence the £35k pathetic salary for the "Mayor".

    As the Tories won with their nationalisation policy, instead the Mayor attacks all of the councils for imposing damaging cuts (driven by their government grant being cut to £zero by his party). The councils are still getting on with trying to coordinate, but instead of dealing with issues that actually matter they have to respond to nonsense like "lets have a Freeport"

    As for the Yorkshire one, its a great example of what happens when neighbouring areas disagree. We had the same up here - we've had separate "independence" referenda in Thornaby and Yarm from local blowhard politicians who hate Stockton. Both narrowly voted "yes" on a 20% turnout but disagreed as to what they should do if they had the power to break away from the unitary authority which they don't. So the proposed "Communities of Ingleby Thornaby and Yarm" authority proposed by Thornaby Town Council was rejected out of hand by town councils in Ingleby and Yarm.

    Whilst we're on the subject of pointless, Town Councils. Which are Parish councils in a posh frock. Utterly pointless. And I say that as a Thornaby Town Councillor...
    Parish and town councils are actually the closest level of government to their local communities. In terms of organising local events and maintaining local facilities and publicising the community, they play a key role
    Possibly not in Thornaby...

    We should do the sensible thing and abolish mid-tier councils like Stockton, handing their powers (as well as central government ones) to a proper devolved assembly.

    Instead of one-man-band vanity campaigns like Houchen's you'd have a joined-up democratic body that would actually be able to deliver on policy rather than just traipse down to London with a begging bowl every couple of months.

    Then having Town Councils would make sense because they would be able to act like select committees, holding the regional administration to account.
  • Adam Boulton on Sky struggles to hide his devotion to the EU in his interviews.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Eagles, that's a flawed comparison. Neither of the two things I mentioned were about banning or preventing religious messages, they were about freedom of choice.

    On that bus example: it was a while ago, but that was basically using the Bible to say homosexuality was wrong, wasn't it? That's quite a difficult one. I do support the right of people to hold such views (even though my own is diametrically opposed to it), and always want to support the right of free speech to the maximum reasonable extent. On the other hand, homosexuality is not a choice, and publicly condemning people over demographics is not something we would tolerate for race or gender (well, except men, obviously, and white people).

    On that basis, I'd come down on the side, assuming we're referring to the same instance, of not permitting it to be advertised.

    Whilst that's an interesting area for discussion, it is, as I said, utterly irrelevant to the two things I mentioned above.
  • Good stuff - as usual - from Stepehn Bush on the Youthquake that didn't happen, but sort of did, actually:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/01/was-jeremy-corbyn-s-youthquake-all-hot-air

    The key takeaway is that Labour would benefit electorally if it switched its education spending priorities away from subsidising middle class students and their parents to focusing relentlessly on pre-school and primary. Which, of course, is what Angela Rayner was arguing for before the last election.


    Child care ranks high in the YouGov 'progressive policies':

    The immigration result is surprising - there was a lot talked about the role of immigrants in depressing wages for the low paid during the referendum campaign, but apparently only 13% think reducing immigration would be progressive!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,272
    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    He's stated that on matters like abortion and same-sex marriage he takes his whip from the Roman Catholic church.
    So he is happy to give up sovereignty to a non-UK body.

    If I believed in an omniscient, omnipotent deity that could condemn me to eternal torment, I think I'd probably give up my sovereignty too.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,523

    Good stuff - as usual - from Stepehn Bush on the Youthquake that didn't happen, but sort of did, actually:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/01/was-jeremy-corbyn-s-youthquake-all-hot-air

    The key takeaway is that Labour would benefit electorally if it switched its education spending priorities away from subsidising middle class students and their parents to focusing relentlessly on pre-school and primary. Which, of course, is what Angela Rayner was arguing for before the last election.

    It’s a good article - but I don’t get that takeaway at all.
    Labour probably did benefit more from its school funding pledges than tuition fees - I’m convinced by that. But the tuition fees pledge was helpful also.

    And we are where we are. For Corbyn to go back on that pledge now would destroy his reputation for honesty. (That’s surely why the Tories propagated that story about writing off student debt).

    A future Labour leader could probably get away with just significantly reducing student fees.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892

    Scott_P said:
    And they will talk and no one will change their stance - it is all so polarised
    You're probably right. The one small difference this time is that the government were apparently trying to keep this assessment hidden.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. F, indeed. Differing jobs require skill, intelligence, beauty or strength. The idea one of these is morally unacceptable is just weird.

    Mr. Ace, they're professional models earning good money. Also, F1 drivers receive a bonus if they win a race. That's a financial bonus, they don't get given a woman.

    Why you and others want to take away freedom of choice from women because you don't agree with it is beyond me. The idea you empower women by denying them choice and taking work away from them is utter tosh.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    FPT
    Elliot said:

    It’s highly annoying to read the overnight threads and see the same voices denying the economic downside of Brexit.

    The Irish example is apposite. When you leave a larger market, you suffer - all things being equal. We are already some billions down where we would have been, according to the OBR and the IMF. You can rubbish that if you like but I’d rather take their econometric analysis than your armchair scoffing.

    That’s money we could be spending on health, housing, or end-of-life care.

    What the new analysis tells us is that any other FTAs will not compensate for the loss of the single market. Even Fox gets it. Time some of the PB Tories did!

    The "all else being equal" is the critical bit. As Ireland found when it woke up from its slumber, they could develop new policy that allowed them to economically succeed during the Celtic Tiger period, something that would have been impossible without independence.
    Ireland was in the EU during that period...
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 676
    So, how long will this shambles continue for? Someone has to get a grip, surely...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    They are not "girls" they are women.

    And presenting them as a notional prize in a sporting event is a disgusting anachronism that can't last much longer.
    Would you like to see catwalk displays banned at London Fashion week ?

    Blatant exploitation of women - could easily be replaced by more chaste tailor's dummies.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    That YouGove polling on 'progressive' policies has some interesting nuggets - the old classic 'Scrapping University Tuition Fees' has greatest support among Lib Dems for helping the less well off, and least among the Tories:

    Scrapping University Tuition Fees Would help Less Well off:
    Con: 36
    Lab: 46
    LibD: 53

    The evidence from Scotland (as the money's got to come from somewhere) is that Con voters are right, and Lib Dem voters wrong:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/cysuqg2jxx/InternalResults_180112_PoliciesQ_w.pdf
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    With JRM - I would say UK.

    If it was Rome he would be Pro-EU.

    So if the UK passed a law saying he had to do something which was contrary to RC belief he would do it?

    I suppose tolerating abortion is a vague analogy.
    I expect that if the government passed a law that explicitly required him to act contrary to his beliefs, for example making Anglican worship compulsory, then he would defy it.
    So the EU is for him just the wrong kind of sovereignty.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,086
    edited January 30

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    Did you feel the same when Boris Johnson banned some Christian advertising on buses during his tenure as Mayor?
    It wasn't Boris - it was TFL - and the High Court upheld the ban:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-28570436

    And I think 'anti-gay' might be a more accurate description than 'Christian'
    It was Boris as Chairman of TfL.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-25909961

    I’ve always thought anti-gay was synonymous with Christian as some Christians keep on telling us.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    Did you feel the same when Boris Johnson banned some Christian advertising on buses during his tenure as Mayor?
    It wasn't Boris - it was TFL - and the High Court upheld the ban:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-28570436

    And I think 'anti-gay' might be a more accurate description than 'Christian'
    It was Boris as Chairman if TfL.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-25909961

    I’ve always thought anti-gay was synonymous with Christian as some Christians keep on telling us.
    I heard a lot of gays moved to Saudi, Pakistan and Iran in protest to escape our harsh Christian influenced laws.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,113

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    Did you feel the same when Boris Johnson banned some Christian advertising on buses during his tenure as Mayor?
    It wasn't Boris - it was TFL - and the High Court upheld the ban:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-28570436

    And I think 'anti-gay' might be a more accurate description than 'Christian'
    It was Boris as Chairman if TfL.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-25909961

    I’ve always thought anti-gay was synonymous with Christian as some Christians keep on telling us.
    Ha ha unlike Islam I suppose.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Good stuff - as usual - from Stepehn Bush on the Youthquake that didn't happen, but sort of did, actually:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/01/was-jeremy-corbyn-s-youthquake-all-hot-air

    The key takeaway is that Labour would benefit electorally if it switched its education spending priorities away from subsidising middle class students and their parents to focusing relentlessly on pre-school and primary. Which, of course, is what Angela Rayner was arguing for before the last election.


    Child care ranks high in the YouGov 'progressive policies':

    The immigration result is surprising - there was a lot talked about the role of immigrants in depressing wages for the low paid during the referendum campaign, but apparently only 13% think reducing immigration would be progressive!
    One of the great 'unknowns' is is reduced immigration already 'priced in' with Brexit? Its been declining in "issues facing the country" - has it gone away, or has it changed its guise? If Brexit looks like being overturned it may come back.
  • FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And they will talk and no one will change their stance - it is all so polarised
    You're probably right. The one small difference this time is that the government were apparently trying to keep this assessment hidden.
    Almost certainly but it really will not change minds. I have concluded that a deal will happen of some form that probably will satisfy most voters but that the whole issue is unsatisfactory and the root cause was the EU intransigence with Cameron and then Merkel's catatrosphic decision on allowing the migrants into the EU.

    Everyone, including Junckers and Merkel, are paying a high price for these errors.

    I expect us to leave but over time converge back to some close relarionship with the EU, even re-joining but that is not for now

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    They are not "girls" they are women.

    And presenting them as a notional prize in a sporting event is a disgusting anachronism that can't last much longer.
    These delusions of moral autonomy among the memsahibs are reaching epidemic proportions.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,157
    It goes to show what a politically weird time the Major era was. Back then I couldn't imagine a single Tory seat that wouldn't have been lost in a by-election. I don't feel that now, despite Theresa and her government's many and varied failings. Poor gentleman John - the electorate had it in for him to a degree that no PM has had to endure before or since.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    He's stated that on matters like abortion and same-sex marriage he takes his whip from the Roman Catholic church.
    So he is happy to give up sovereignty to a non-UK body.

    If I believed in an omniscient, omnipotent deity that could condemn me to eternal torment, I think I'd probably give up my sovereignty too.
    This eternal torment - so did god set up the EU?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,086
    edited January 30
    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    Did you feel the same when Boris Johnson banned some Christian advertising on buses during his tenure as Mayor?
    It wasn't Boris - it was TFL - and the High Court upheld the ban:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-28570436

    And I think 'anti-gay' might be a more accurate description than 'Christian'
    It was Boris as Chairman if TfL.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-25909961

    I’ve always thought anti-gay was synonymous with Christian as some Christians keep on telling us.
    I heard a lot of gays moved to Saudi, Pakistan and Iran in protest to escape our harsh Christian influenced laws.
    You’d love it in Iran.

    Just like being in Glasgow except with less religious antagonism.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    This is the crucial factor: seven months have passed since the general election and not a single by election outside Ireland. The Tories would need to lose 7 by elections to lose a confidence vote. At the present rate it would take over four years.

    Even more crucial is that 1992-7, Labour won by elections on huge swings. Labour also won by elections 1987-92 under Kinnock on substantial swings. But Labour at that those times had large leads in the opinion polls. Labour now has a tiny lead, smaller than it held even under Miliband and Kinnock. Even if there were by elections, it is doubtful whether Labour could win them.

    The opinion pollsters have also adjusted their methodologies to include a large turnout by the young on the presumption there was a youthquake in June 2017. But it now turns out there was no such youthquake. The polling companies may therefore be overestimating Labour's vote.

    Whatever an election before 2022 is unlikely. The Tories will have a new leader, be better prepared, a more attractive manifesto, Brexit will be done and dusted, Corbyn will be 73 and it will show, and the Tories will be ruthless in exposing his economic incompetence.

    2005, the polls overestimated Labour, 2010 the polls overestimated the Tories. 2015 the polls overestimated Labour, 2017 the polls overestimated the Tories, in 2022...............see the pattern?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    Did you feel the same when Boris Johnson banned some Christian advertising on buses during his tenure as Mayor?
    It wasn't Boris - it was TFL - and the High Court upheld the ban:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-28570436

    And I think 'anti-gay' might be a more accurate description than 'Christian'
    It was Boris as Chairman if TfL.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-25909961

    I’ve always thought anti-gay was synonymous with Christian as some Christians keep on telling us.
    I heard a lot of gays moved to Saudi, Pakistan and Iran in protest to escape our harsh Christian influenced laws.
    You’ve love it in Iran.

    Just like being in Glasgow except with less religious antagonism.
    Life expectancy in Iran is probably higher.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,272

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    He's stated that on matters like abortion and same-sex marriage he takes his whip from the Roman Catholic church.
    So he is happy to give up sovereignty to a non-UK body.

    If I believed in an omniscient, omnipotent deity that could condemn me to eternal torment, I think I'd probably give up my sovereignty too.
    This eternal torment - so did god set up the EU?
    I don't subscribe to 'The EU are teh evilz' world view.
  • O/T - I feel like I’ve committed adultery.

    I’ve cheated on Apple and bought a chromebook whilst the new MacBook Air comes out.
  • TGOHF said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I think that's complacent. As well as Khan's pathetic forelock-tugging before the shriekingly over-sensitive, we've had darts walk-on girls banned and calls for likewise with F1 grid girls.

    Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...

    Did you feel the same when Boris Johnson banned some Christian advertising on buses during his tenure as Mayor?
    It wasn't Boris - it was TFL - and the High Court upheld the ban:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-28570436

    And I think 'anti-gay' might be a more accurate description than 'Christian'
    It was Boris as Chairman if TfL.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-25909961

    I’ve always thought anti-gay was synonymous with Christian as some Christians keep on telling us.
    I heard a lot of gays moved to Saudi, Pakistan and Iran in protest to escape our harsh Christian influenced laws.
    Christianity: Love the sinner, hate the sin
    Islam: Free flying lessons
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    Leave voters are the most strongly behind her, so a challenge from the Eurosceptic wing would be brave.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Last three words not required from JRM.


    Serious question:

    Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?

    Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
    His loyalty is to Rome.

    From 2013.

    Tory MP Rees-Mogg: ‘I take my whip from the Roman Catholic Church’

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.pinknews.co.uk/2013/02/04/tory-mp-rees-mogg-i-take-my-whip-from-the-roman-catholic-church/amp/

    I’m coming to the conclusion that the recent decision to overturn the anti Catholic laws might have been a mistake.

    Just imagine the frottaging among Leavers if Sadiq Khan had said he took his whip from Mecca.
    Jacob Rees Mogg is highly selective in his loyalty to Rome. The Pope has identified solidarity and support for refugees as the key moral issues facing Europe, yet Rees Mogg was the only MP of any party to vote to close a child refugee centre.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Owen Paterson has broken his back in a riding accident. Hope he can make a swift recovery: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-42871541
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    May should remain Conservative leader (net)

    Overall: +7
    Con: +51
    Lab: -26
    LibD: +11

    Remain: -1
    Leave: +17

    18-24: -11
    65+: +30
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    O/T - I feel like I’ve committed adultery.

    I’ve cheated on Apple and bought a chromebook whilst the new MacBook Air comes out.

    I though the MacBook Air was being discontinued?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Leave voters are the most strongly behind her, so a challenge from the Eurosceptic wing would be brave.
    Nearly 70% of Conservative voters support her staying - so a challenge from any wing would be brave......
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,334
    Apart from them asking the wrong question to the wrong group of people, excellent data.

    Comparative figures for May / Boris / Gove / JRM / Hunt / Rudd etc would be more useful, as would the views of Con MPs (which is the only groups that really matters - although of course it's not going to be available or reliable).

    If May is toppled, the view in retrospect of the action will depend entirely on how the new leader does.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Poor gentleman John - the electorate had it in for him to a degree that no PM has had to endure before or since.

    Im not sure it was him so much as his party. A lesson some appear not to have learned.
This discussion has been closed.