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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poll boost for TMay as she struggles to hang on at Number 10

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited January 30 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poll boost for TMay as she struggles to hang on at Number 10

With much of the talk at Westminster being over whether there will be a confidence vote on TMay’s leadership there’s some encouragement for her in a YouGov poll.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,872
    First? There is also political weariness. People may associate a new PM with yet another election. We may relish that. The vast majority don't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    A good result for May, Tories and Leavers want her to stay and even Remainers are split. No signs in any poll of any alternative Tory leader doing significantly better either
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    FPT

    The question for those of us who believe in free trade but consider Brexit could be beneficial is not whether freer trade is beneficial or not . . . it is whether we prioritise freer trade with the ~6% of the Earth's population that live in the EU excluding the UK, or the ~93% of the Earth's population that is out of the EU.

    This is a completely false dichotomy. Is California prioritising trade with the USA over the rest of the world? No, it's part of an internal market governed by shared political institutions (albeit with a different constitutional model to the EU).
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,840
    FPT:

    Seems to be a certain amount of excitement on the other side of the pond.

    Is it going to be bigger than Watergate? The suggest that the Hillary server investigation was a sham is going to be fun as well.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    fpt

    Someone else put it better than me.
    You either believe freer trade is economically beneficial or you don’t.

    It seems you’re one of the flat Earth Brexiters.

    Of course models don’t account for automation, or the so called flaws in the Eurozone. Neither do they account for an asteroid impact or the possibility we are living inside a artificial reality entirely imagined by an Octopus called Ned.

    What is different from before Brexit is that it seems that the Treasury forecast was overcooked, albeit it was based on the assumption of an immediate activation of Article 50.

    But also - now that the “options” are clearer, we have much more information to understand the impact historic and future.

    There also no longer appear to be anyone claiming a Brexit boon. Brexiters have given that up as simply too risible, and are reduced to claiming that all economic forecasting is worthless.

    Such logic would of course mean that all business and economic planning is simply a matter of going to a casino and trusting in your lucky number and rabbit’s foot.

    Sorry but this is nonsense, almost everyone on this board believes that free trade is economically beneficial.

    The question for those of us who believe in free trade but consider Brexit could be beneficial is not whether freer trade is beneficial or not . . . it is whether we prioritise freer trade with the ~6% of the Earth's population that live in the EU excluding the UK, or the ~93% of the Earth's population that is out of the EU.
    So back to trade deals with Tonga. Yay!

    We already have a free trade arrangement for nearly half our exports. You are about to dismantle that and try to recreate it from scratch.

    That, I'm afraid, is bonkers. By all means go the sovereignty* route, but don't be an idiot on the likely economic outcome of leaving the EU.

    *we always were, obvs.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Also geographically the only areas that wanted May to go were London & Scotland - London 10 points - or more- adrift of the rest of England.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    T

    FPT

    The question for those of us who believe in free trade but consider Brexit could be beneficial is not whether freer trade is beneficial or not . . . it is whether we prioritise freer trade with the ~6% of the Earth's population that live in the EU excluding the UK, or the ~93% of the Earth's population that is out of the EU.

    This is a completely false dichotomy. Is California prioritising trade with the USA over the rest of the world? No, it's part of an internal market governed by shared political institutions (albeit with a different constitutional model to the EU).
    More likely to get higher growth from trade with the areas with lower taxation and less stifling regulation.

    IE not the EU.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 277

    FPT:

    Seems to be a certain amount of excitement on the other side of the pond.

    Is it going to be bigger than Watergate? The suggest that the Hillary server investigation was a sham is going to be fun as well.

    For it to be bigger than Watergate then they would have needed to spy on candidates/support staff outside of team Trump.
  • BromBrom Posts: 925
    Amazed by how many gullible people treat a Buzzfeed leak as news. It's journalistic standards are sub-par, reputation close to mud and is not read by anyone in the no. It makes you wonder if the Canary came out with this 'leak' if it would get the same reaction.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Some perspective:

    Eurotrak - Government approval (net):

    GB: -33
    DE: -51
    FR: -31
    DK: -23
    Swe: -46
    Fin: -41
    Nw: ±0

    So Mrs May aint doing that bad on that measure either vs 'the world's darling' Macron, or Mutti.....

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    Also geographically the only areas that wanted May to go were London & Scotland - London 10 points - or more- adrift of the rest of England.

    Scotland was actually better for May than London but even in London there is probably more support for May than many alternative Tory leaders
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,636
    I would argue that the Tories' democratic mandate to govern (such as it exists at all) would be completely invalidated by removing May mid-term. Lest we forget, the Tories' election pitch last year was based almost entirely around having her as PM -- the Tories may retrospectively regret that that was their pitch, but nonetheless the votes were still won explicitly on the basis of a personal vote for May.

    And certainly in my anecdotal experience canvassing, although the shine on May certainly dulled as the campaign went on, there will still SOME voters in the last few days who said they preferred Labour's policies to Tory policies, but would vote Tory anyway because they liked and trusted May. Is it democratically justifiable for the entire basis of their votes to be disregarded?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Brom said:

    Amazed by how many gullible people treat a Buzzfeed leak as news. It's journalistic standards are sub-par, reputation close to mud and is not read by anyone in the no. It makes you wonder if the Canary came out with this 'leak' if it would get the same reaction.

    I suspect it was treated as 'news' because it said what they wanted to hear - curiously never having heard it before during the referendum.....
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,063
    edited January 30
    Brom said:

    Amazed by how many gullible people treat a Buzzfeed leak as news. It's journalistic standards are sub-par, reputation close to mud and is not read by anyone in the no. It makes you wonder if the Canary came out with this 'leak' if it would get the same reaction.

    As you're clearly in the no yourself, why do you think the leaked document is a fake?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited January 30
    Danny565 said:

    I would argue that the Tories' democratic mandate to govern (such as it exists at all) would be completely invalidated by removing May mid-term. Lest we forget, the Tories' election pitch last year was based almost entirely around having her as PM -- the Tories may retrospectively regret that that was their pitch, but nonetheless the votes were still won explicitly on the basis of a personal vote for May.

    And certainly in my anecdotal experience canvassing, although the shine on May certainly dulled as the campaign went on, there will still SOME voters in the last few days who said they preferred Labour's policies to Tory policies, but would vote Tory anyway because they liked and trusted May. Is it democratically justifiable for the entire basis of their votes to be disregarded?

    Let us also not forget much of the current swiping at May is reminiscent of that at Major from 1992 to 1997. Major survived and when he did eventually go after 1997 it took the Tories another 3 leaders before they finally found one who could win a general election again as Major had in 1992
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    edited January 30
    FPT



    We surely ask our representatives to speak the truth to us about our future economic arrangements.

    All forecasts show a negative impact.
    The Cabinet Office’s
    The SNP’s
    Treasury’s
    The OBR’s
    The IMF’s

    Steve Baker is not fit to hold public office.

    Which part of that is news? That was widely-publicised to be the case prior to the Referendum but we as a nation voted to Leave anyway despite that. Nothing has changed since the Referendum except that we haven't had the post-referendum recession that was forecast.
    So nothing has changed except for the fact that the near-term economic forecasts were demonstrated to be wrong. And we are still expected to believe medium/long-term economic forecasts?
    There is good reason to rate these estimates in the medium term. The known unknowns are mostly well understood and are almost entirely downside. If you impose border controls this will have a real cost that you can estimate. Same with removing banks' financial passports. And so on. You can't model unknown unknowns. Long term, "something might turn up" is as good as it gets. Unknown unknowns aren't necessarily on the upside. Far from clawing back medium term losses, they could make them worse.

    These estimates match the long term Treasury projections that have held up so far (early days) and third party analysis. They are all working off the same data. Saying you shouldn't believe any forecast because they are not always right is ignorant and damaging if it gets in the way of informed decision making.

    My personal view is that the projections are best case for each of the scenarios. In practice there will be uncertainty and disruption that adds to these costs. My most likely outcome of EEA equivalent would only be a 2% GDP cost if the government was working systematically to that goal from June 2016, coordinating with the EU all the way. The delays, arguments and diversions to WTO and Canada+ would add significantly to that cost. It probably would end up more costly than the best case FTA, predicted to be 5%. A reversion to WTO is likely to be chaotic and and a lot more costly than the modelled 8%

    Against that, I do expect the pols to aim to mitigate Brexit. The purpose of this report isn't to convince people to stay in the EU. It is to make politicians aware that their Brexit choices have consequences and provide data to inform those choices.

    My central prediction within a wide band of likely outcomes is that Brexit will have a medium term cost in the high single digits %GDP. It's a real cost in jobs and welfare - it would be the equivalent of most of the healthcare budget for instance - but if people think it's a cost worth paying...

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,304
    HYUFD said:

    Also geographically the only areas that wanted May to go were London & Scotland - London 10 points - or more- adrift of the rest of England.

    Scotland was actually better for May than London but even in London there is probably more support for May than many alternative Tory leaders
    Scotland was better for Ruth Davidson not TMay who had sod all to do with it. . She can take nothing from Davidson’s success
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,561
    FPT

    The question for those of us who believe in free trade but consider Brexit could be beneficial is not whether freer trade is beneficial or not . . . it is whether we prioritise freer trade with the ~6% of the Earth's population that live in the EU excluding the UK, or the ~93% of the Earth's population that is out of the EU.

    On the other hand, the EU may have 6% of the population, but it has 25% of the world's GDP, the USA another 25%, China about 10% and Japan about 10%

    So really, we need freer trade with the EU, USA, Japan and China. That is where the money is.
    While once upon a time it was true that the EU had 25% of world GDP that really isn't the case anymore. It's percentage of world GDP has been falling rapidly.

    The EU 27 (excluding UK) make up just under 18.5% of GDP and falling annually. The EU is where money was once upon a time.

    We'd be crazy not to make some form of trade deal with Europe but the real opportunities are in the rest of the world not our ageing continent. Once free from Europe, so the free trade Brexit theory goes, we have a big wide world to trade with.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719

    HYUFD said:

    Also geographically the only areas that wanted May to go were London & Scotland - London 10 points - or more- adrift of the rest of England.

    Scotland was actually better for May than London but even in London there is probably more support for May than many alternative Tory leaders
    Scotland was better for Ruth Davidson not TMay who had sod all to do with it. . She can take nothing from Davidson’s success
    Marcus Fysh was in the Telegraph yesterday pushing for a hard Brexit. This is his view of the woman who saved the Tories from opposition:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    HYUFD said:

    Also geographically the only areas that wanted May to go were London & Scotland - London 10 points - or more- adrift of the rest of England.

    Scotland was actually better for May than London but even in London there is probably more support for May than many alternative Tory leaders
    Scotland was better for Ruth Davidson not TMay who had sod all to do with it. . She can take nothing from Davidson’s success
    The polling question was about May staying as PM - 36% of Scots thought she should - well ahead of SCON vote share. (40% thought she shouldn't, 24% DK)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited January 30

    HYUFD said:

    Also geographically the only areas that wanted May to go were London & Scotland - London 10 points - or more- adrift of the rest of England.

    Scotland was actually better for May than London but even in London there is probably more support for May than many alternative Tory leaders
    Scotland was better for Ruth Davidson not TMay who had sod all to do with it. . She can take nothing from Davidson’s success
    I was talking about today's Yougov where fewer people in Scotland want May to go than do in London, Davidson helped but May is probably the most popular Tory national leader in Scotland since Major (who let us not forget made a net gain in seats and voteshare in Scotland in 1992 as May did in 2017)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,642
    edited January 30
    FPT
    I did meet Kinnock once and have never forgotten the conversation.It was back in late September 1974 in the course of the October election held that year. I was living in Pembrokeshire and about to return for my second year at university.He had come down to campaign for the local Labour candidate in what was a key marginal seat, and I spent the morning doorknocking with him and a group of party workers.At lunchtime, we retired to the party HQ and I sat chatting to him over a pint. I always remember him looking me straight in the eye as he smoked away on his pipe. He asked me about my career plans, and following my reply - to the effect that I was uncertain - he said to me 'Go to the Bar Boy! That is where the money is!' I was surprised to hear this from someone who at the time was seen as a firebrand of the Left - and in the light of what happened to him subsequently it has always made me wonder as to what really 'drives' him. I doubt that Benn- Skinner - or indeed Corbyn - would have spoken in those terms.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    Of course in 10 yrs time nobody will ever be able to prove whether Brexit had any impact on the economy.

    They can guess - but it will be a guess.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 506
    TGOHF said:

    Of course in 10 yrs time nobody will ever be able to prove whether Brexit had any impact on the economy.

    They can guess - but it will be a guess.

    How many experts predicted the huge events which happened a decade ago? There are more parameters than Brexit.

    If Treasury forecasters were so accurate perhaps we wouldn't be £2 trillion in debt and would have closed the deficit by now? People don't trust forecasters anymore - because recent history has taught them Mystic Meg could provide more accurate data than many of them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), well, quite. Whatever the economic outcome, it'll be indicative of woe, woe, and thrice woe.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    Quite amusing to see the same people who deny the predictability of climate change deny that long term economic forecasts have any validity.

    I doubt they go sunbathing in January in Bournemouth, mind.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    On topic, Theresa May continues to embody faute de mieux. Everyone worries that whoever replaces her will be even less congenial than she is.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    edited January 30
    justin124 said:

    FPT
    I did meet Kinnock once and have never forgotten the conversation.It was back in late September 1974 in the course of the October election held that year. I was living in Pembrokeshire and about to return for my second year at university.He had come down to campaign for the local Labour candidate in what was a key marginal seat, and I spent the morning doorknocking with him and a group of party workers.At lunchtime, we retired to the party HQ and I sat chatting to him over a pint. I always remember him looking me straight in the eye as he smoked away on his pipe. He asked me about my career plans, and following my reply - to the effect that I was uncertain - he said to me 'Go to the Bar Boy! That is where the money is!' I was surprised to hear this from someone who at the time was seen as a firebrand of the Left - and in the light of what happened to him subsequently it has always made me wonder as to what really 'drives' him. I doubt that Benn- Skinner - or indeed Corbyn - would have spoken in those terms.

    Indeed.

    Perish the thought that people of any background actually do what Labour says is their raison d'etre and makes a success of themselves.

    Instant class traitor/capitalist running dog.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995

    the predictability of climate change .

    Arf - it's the way you tell 'em.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited January 30
    justin124 said:

    FPT
    I did meet Kinnock once and have never forgotten the conversation.It was back in late September 1974 in the course of the October election held that year. I was living in Pembrokeshire and about to return for my second year at university.He had come down to campaign for the local Labour candidate in what was a key marginal seat, and I spent the morning doorknocking with him and a group of party workers.At lunchtime, we retired to the party HQ and I sat chatting to him over a pint. I always remember him looking me straight in the eye as he smoked away on his pipe. He asked me about my career plans, and following my reply - to the effect that I was uncertain - he said to me 'Go to the Bar Boy! That is where the money is!' I was surprised to hear this from someone who at the time was seen as a firebrand of the Left - and in the light of what happened to him subsequently it has always made me wonder as to what really 'drives' him. I doubt that Benn- Skinner - or indeed Corbyn - would have spoken in those terms.

    Hence why Benn challenged him for the leadership in 1988 (backed by Corbyn). Though even his quote was only accurate as far as the commercial Bar is concerned, criminal legal aid barristers are certainly not awash with cash unless they become a QC
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    brendan16 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Of course in 10 yrs time nobody will ever be able to prove whether Brexit had any impact on the economy.

    They can guess - but it will be a guess.

    How many experts predicted the huge events which happened a decade ago? There are more parameters than Brexit.

    If Treasury forecasters were so accurate perhaps we wouldn't be £2 trillion in debt and would have closed the deficit by now? People don't trust forecasters anymore - because recent history has taught them Mystic Meg could provide more accurate data than many of them.
    Of course. That's why you model the costs of Brexit that attributable to Brexit
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Fishing said:
    An interesting idea, which could probably work given a common language, similar wealth levels and attractiveness of the countries to each other’s people.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,642
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    FPT
    I did meet Kinnock once and have never forgotten the conversation.It was back in late September 1974 in the course of the October election held that year. I was living in Pembrokeshire and about to return for my second year at university.He had come down to campaign for the local Labour candidate in what was a key marginal seat, and I spent the morning doorknocking with him and a group of party workers.At lunchtime, we retired to the party HQ and I sat chatting to him over a pint. I always remember him looking me straight in the eye as he smoked away on his pipe. He asked me about my career plans, and following my reply - to the effect that I was uncertain - he said to me 'Go to the Bar Boy! That is where the money is!' I was surprised to hear this from someone who at the time was seen as a firebrand of the Left - and in the light of what happened to him subsequently it has always made me wonder as to what really 'drives' him. I doubt that Benn- Skinner - or indeed Corbyn - would have spoken in those terms.

    Hence why Benn challenged him for the leadership in 1988 (backed by Corbyn). Though even his quote was only accurate as far as the commercial Bar is concerned, criminal legal aid barristers are certainly not awash with cash unless they become a QC
    Indeed - though this was over 43 years ago!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,646
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    FPT
    I did meet Kinnock once and have never forgotten the conversation.It was back in late September 1974 in the course of the October election held that year. I was living in Pembrokeshire and about to return for my second year at university.He had come down to campaign for the local Labour candidate in what was a key marginal seat, and I spent the morning doorknocking with him and a group of party workers.At lunchtime, we retired to the party HQ and I sat chatting to him over a pint. I always remember him looking me straight in the eye as he smoked away on his pipe. He asked me about my career plans, and following my reply - to the effect that I was uncertain - he said to me 'Go to the Bar Boy! That is where the money is!' I was surprised to hear this from someone who at the time was seen as a firebrand of the Left - and in the light of what happened to him subsequently it has always made me wonder as to what really 'drives' him. I doubt that Benn- Skinner - or indeed Corbyn - would have spoken in those terms.

    Hence why Benn challenged him for the leadership in 1988 (backed by Corbyn). Though even his quote was only accurate as far as the commercial Bar is concerned, criminal legal aid barristers are certainly not awash with cash unless they become a QC
    Indeed - though this was over 43 years ago!
    Did you follow his advice?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 105
    dixiedean said:

    First? There is also political weariness. People may associate a new PM with yet another election. We may relish that. The vast majority don't.

    Agreed. I'd love another election. The public will not.
    There has been pressure on a new PM (not that any of them acted on it) since as long as I can recall, when they take office mid term to call an election. On YouTube somewhere is the news item when Thatcher resigned. Second item was Kinnock and Mandelson walking down the street with Kinnock demanding an election.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,642

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    FPT
    I did meet Kinnock once and have never forgotten the conversation.It was back in late September 1974 in the course of the October election held that year. I was living in Pembrokeshire and about to return for my second year at university.He had come down to campaign for the local Labour candidate in what was a key marginal seat, and I spent the morning doorknocking with him and a group of party workers.At lunchtime, we retired to the party HQ and I sat chatting to him over a pint. I always remember him looking me straight in the eye as he smoked away on his pipe. He asked me about my career plans, and following my reply - to the effect that I was uncertain - he said to me 'Go to the Bar Boy! That is where the money is!' I was surprised to hear this from someone who at the time was seen as a firebrand of the Left - and in the light of what happened to him subsequently it has always made me wonder as to what really 'drives' him. I doubt that Benn- Skinner - or indeed Corbyn - would have spoken in those terms.

    Hence why Benn challenged him for the leadership in 1988 (backed by Corbyn). Though even his quote was only accurate as far as the commercial Bar is concerned, criminal legal aid barristers are certainly not awash with cash unless they become a QC
    Indeed - though this was over 43 years ago!
    Did you follow his advice?
    No I did not - though sometimes regret not having chosen a legal career. I did consider it in the mid-1990s but eventually decided I was already too old!
  • BromBrom Posts: 925
    edited January 30
    Anorak said:

    Brom said:

    Amazed by how many gullible people treat a Buzzfeed leak as news. It's journalistic standards are sub-par, reputation close to mud and is not read by anyone in the no. It makes you wonder if the Canary came out with this 'leak' if it would get the same reaction.

    As you're clearly in the no yourself, why do you think the leaked document is a fake?
    And why do you trust Buzzfeed? do you work for them?
    Do you trust everything in the ladbible too?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,975
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:
    An interesting idea, which could probably work given a common language, similar wealth levels and attractiveness of the countries to each other’s people.
    Has anyone asked New Zealand, Australia and Canada if they are interested?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,527
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:
    An interesting idea, which could probably work given a common language, similar wealth levels and attractiveness of the countries to each other’s people.
    Add up the populations of Canada, Australia and New Zealand and make a poster saying that they would all have the right to come here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    FPT
    I did meet Kinnock once and have never forgotten the conversation.It was back in late September 1974 in the course of the October election held that year. I was living in Pembrokeshire and about to return for my second year at university.He had come down to campaign for the local Labour candidate in what was a key marginal seat, and I spent the morning doorknocking with him and a group of party workers.At lunchtime, we retired to the party HQ and I sat chatting to him over a pint. I always remember him looking me straight in the eye as he smoked away on his pipe. He asked me about my career plans, and following my reply - to the effect that I was uncertain - he said to me 'Go to the Bar Boy! That is where the money is!' I was surprised to hear this from someone who at the time was seen as a firebrand of the Left - and in the light of what happened to him subsequently it has always made me wonder as to what really 'drives' him. I doubt that Benn- Skinner - or indeed Corbyn - would have spoken in those terms.

    Hence why Benn challenged him for the leadership in 1988 (backed by Corbyn). Though even his quote was only accurate as far as the commercial Bar is concerned, criminal legal aid barristers are certainly not awash with cash unless they become a QC
    Indeed - though this was over 43 years ago!
    Kinnock also recalled in a documentary I remember Benn criticising Kinnock for pushing for more homeowners when Labour should be focused on those renting an in public housing, to which Kinnock quipped 'Tony, when you no longer live rent free and without a mortgage you can be the first to criticise me'). Benn's wife being a wealthy American heiress
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    FPT

    The question for those of us who believe in free trade but consider Brexit could be beneficial is not whether freer trade is beneficial or not . . . it is whether we prioritise freer trade with the ~6% of the Earth's population that live in the EU excluding the UK, or the ~93% of the Earth's population that is out of the EU.

    On the other hand, the EU may have 6% of the population, but it has 25% of the world's GDP, the USA another 25%, China about 10% and Japan about 10%

    So really, we need freer trade with the EU, USA, Japan and China. That is where the money is.
    While once upon a time it was true that the EU had 25% of world GDP that really isn't the case anymore. It's percentage of world GDP has been falling rapidly.

    The EU 27 (excluding UK) make up just under 18.5% of GDP and falling annually. The EU is where money was once upon a time.

    We'd be crazy not to make some form of trade deal with Europe but the real opportunities are in the rest of the world not our ageing continent. Once free from Europe, so the free trade Brexit theory goes, we have a big wide world to trade with.
    Yes, the European share of the world’s economy is shrinking as more countries with larger populations become developed.

    I’ve always thought that somewhere like India would be a good starting point for a trade deal, they have high tariffs on imports of things like cars, and are increasingly making more hi-tech things themselves which they’d like to export to us. We need to use the early trade deals for a competitive advantage over the EU, so if we can make Jaguar cars noticeable cheaper in India than Mercedes cars that will be to our benefit. The Indian shareholders at JLR will be happy too. As a bonus, we’ll even send them Vijay Malliya for free, India have been trying to get him deported from London for years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    JonathanD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:
    An interesting idea, which could probably work given a common language, similar wealth levels and attractiveness of the countries to each other’s people.
    Has anyone asked New Zealand, Australia and Canada if they are interested?
    Wouldn't it undermine their famous "points-based systems" to let anyone with a British passport in?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,845
    Fishing said:
    I believe Canada & Australia have higher net migration than the UK. I'm assuming freedom of movement would extend to immigrants to these countries?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892

    FPT

    The question for those of us who believe in free trade but consider Brexit could be beneficial is not whether freer trade is beneficial or not . . . it is whether we prioritise freer trade with the ~6% of the Earth's population that live in the EU excluding the UK, or the ~93% of the Earth's population that is out of the EU.

    On the other hand, the EU may have 6% of the population, but it has 25% of the world's GDP, the USA another 25%, China about 10% and Japan about 10%

    So really, we need freer trade with the EU, USA, Japan and China. That is where the money is.
    While once upon a time it was true that the EU had 25% of world GDP that really isn't the case anymore. It's percentage of world GDP has been falling rapidly.

    The EU 27 (excluding UK) make up just under 18.5% of GDP and falling annually. The EU is where money was once upon a time.

    We'd be crazy not to make some form of trade deal with Europe but the real opportunities are in the rest of the world not our ageing continent. Once free from Europe, so the free trade Brexit theory goes, we have a big wide world to trade with.
    The leaked report worked out that an FTA with the USA is worth a 0.2% boost to our GDP (against a 2% to 8% loss due to Brexit). This assumes (a) that we would get an FTA with the USA and (b) that it would be more beneficial than the terms we had under the EU. Both are possible but less likely than not, IMO.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. 43, I'm not sure how much a 15 year forecast is worth given most people got their recent 1 year forecast somewhere between wrong and very wrong.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    JonathanD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:
    An interesting idea, which could probably work given a common language, similar wealth levels and attractiveness of the countries to each other’s people.
    Has anyone asked New Zealand, Australia and Canada if they are interested?
    Indeed - I can't see them wishing to have a free flow of smugness deal with the Uk at present - they could easily be "swamped" .
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    I suspect that a fair number of those who want her to remain are Corbyn supporters who know they are in real trouble if the Tories get a new and more popular leader.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,642
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    FPT
    I did meet Kinnock once and have never forgotten the conversation.It was back in late September 1974 in the course of the October election held that year. I was living in Pembrokeshire and about to return for my second year at university.He had come down to campaign for the local Labour candidate in what was a key marginal seat, and I spent the morning doorknocking with him and a group of party workers.At lunchtime, we retired to the party HQ and I sat chatting to him over a pint. I always remember him looking me straight in the eye as he smoked away on his pipe. He asked me about my career plans, and following my reply - to the effect that I was uncertain - he said to me 'Go to the Bar Boy! That is where the money is!' I was surprised to hear this from someone who at the time was seen as a firebrand of the Left - and in the light of what happened to him subsequently it has always made me wonder as to what really 'drives' him. I doubt that Benn- Skinner - or indeed Corbyn - would have spoken in those terms.

    Hence why Benn challenged him for the leadership in 1988 (backed by Corbyn). Though even his quote was only accurate as far as the commercial Bar is concerned, criminal legal aid barristers are certainly not awash with cash unless they become a QC
    Indeed - though this was over 43 years ago!
    Kinnock also recalled in a documentary I remember Benn criticising Kinnock for pushing for more homeowners when Labour should be focused on those renting an in public housing, to which Kinnock quipped 'Tony, when you no longer live rent free and without a mortgage you can be the first to criticise me'). Benn's wife being a wealthy American heiress
    Yes - though I imagine that was much later in the 1990s by which time Kinnock had moved sharply to the centre.Back in the mid-70s he was seen as very much a rising star of the left - and too unreliable to be offered a post in the 1974 - 79 Government. That he spoke to me in such terms even at a time when his public utterances placed him so firmly on the left, has inclined me to hold a much more cynical view of his intentions.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 307



    Wouldn't it undermine their famous "points-based systems" to let anyone with a British passport in?

    Australia and New Zealand already have free movement with each other.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,975

    JonathanD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:
    An interesting idea, which could probably work given a common language, similar wealth levels and attractiveness of the countries to each other’s people.
    Has anyone asked New Zealand, Australia and Canada if they are interested?
    Wouldn't it undermine their famous "points-based systems" to let anyone with a British passport in?
    yebbut, Blue Passports...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    Sandpit said:

    I’ve always thought that somewhere like India would be a good starting point for a trade deal, they have high tariffs on imports of things like cars, and are increasingly making more hi-tech things themselves which they’d like to export to us. We need to use the early trade deals for a competitive advantage over the EU, so if we can make Jaguar cars noticeable cheaper in India than Mercedes cars that will be to our benefit. The Indian shareholders at JLR will be happy too.

    Are you suggesting exporting cars to India is our future? Mercedes already has an assembly plant in Pune.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,845
    JonathanD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:
    An interesting idea, which could probably work given a common language, similar wealth levels and attractiveness of the countries to each other’s people.
    Has anyone asked New Zealand, Australia and Canada if they are interested?
    Such a deal might cause Dan Hannan to ecstatically self combust, so definitely worth asking them.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 307
    JonathanD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:
    An interesting idea, which could probably work given a common language, similar wealth levels and attractiveness of the countries to each other’s people.
    Has anyone asked New Zealand, Australia and Canada if they are interested?
    There are rather a lot of signatures from C, Aus, NZ on that petition.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    JonathanD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:
    An interesting idea, which could probably work given a common language, similar wealth levels and attractiveness of the countries to each other’s people.
    Has anyone asked New Zealand, Australia and Canada if they are interested?
    Aus and NZ already have such an arrangement between themselves. Like all international agreements, the devil would be in the details such as entitlements to welfare and healthcare.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487
    PBers desperate to retain freedom of movement with Hungary and Romania highlighting the potential snags with a FoM deal with Oz, NZ and Canada. Right.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,063
    edited January 30
    Brom said:

    Anorak said:

    Brom said:

    Amazed by how many gullible people treat a Buzzfeed leak as news. It's journalistic standards are sub-par, reputation close to mud and is not read by anyone in the no. It makes you wonder if the Canary came out with this 'leak' if it would get the same reaction.

    As you're clearly in the no yourself, why do you think the leaked document is a fake?
    And why do you trust Buzzfeed? do you work for them?
    Do you trust everything in the ladbible too?
    Given it seems to have been accepted as valid by pretty much every media outlet, was the subject of an urgent question in the house, and has not been refuted or denied or branded a fake by any facet of government, I'd say I was right to believe it was genuine.

    You seem to be in a paranoid minority of one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 26,048
    edited January 30
    Have a guess what party this charming twatterer supports....

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995

    PBers desperate to retain freedom of movement with Hungary and Romania highlighting the potential snags with a FoM deal with Oz, NZ and Canada. Right.

    To be fair - most Remainers have grasped that a Canadian builder is unlikely to offer the same cash in hand price as a Hungarian to build their extension.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892

    Mr. 43, I'm not sure how much a 15 year forecast is worth given most people got their recent 1 year forecast somewhere between wrong and very wrong.

    Because forecasting of any kind is an inexact science, but it doesn't mean the Met Office should be shut down when it gets a forecast wrong. People should understand the data, the models, the assumptions and the confidence levels, even if it's a bit intuitive. This report on the DIRECT costs of Brexit comes with a reasonably high confidence because the variables are reasonably well understood. It also matches Treasury and third party analysis.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,568

    Quite amusing to see the same people who deny the predictability of climate change deny that long term economic forecasts have any validity.

    I doubt they go sunbathing in January in Bournemouth, mind.

    Can you not see that there a difference between the achievements of physics and economics in terms of predictability ?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Sandpit said:

    I’ve always thought that somewhere like India would be a good starting point for a trade deal, they have high tariffs on imports of things like cars, and are increasingly making more hi-tech things themselves which they’d like to export to us. We need to use the early trade deals for a competitive advantage over the EU, so if we can make Jaguar cars noticeable cheaper in India than Mercedes cars that will be to our benefit. The Indian shareholders at JLR will be happy too.

    Are you suggesting exporting cars to India is our future? Mercedes already has an assembly plant in Pune.
    We should be looking to export cars (and other high-value goods we manufacture) to anywhere with a rapidly-growing middle class who can afford to buy them, and there are advantages to being first movers into these markets as they start to develop, as people have brand loyalty. Mercedes shipped German jobs to India to avoid the high import tariffs on their cars, if we are sensible in negotiating we can keep those jobs in Britain.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 307

    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.

    It's more that they have similar income levels. I never had a problem with freedom of movement with France or Germany.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,546

    FPT

    The question for those of us who believe in free trade but consider Brexit could be beneficial is not whether freer trade is beneficial or not . . . it is whether we prioritise freer trade with the ~6% of the Earth's population that live in the EU excluding the UK, or the ~93% of the Earth's population that is out of the EU.

    On the other hand, the EU may have 6% of the population, but it has 25% of the world's GDP, the USA another 25%, China about 10% and Japan about 10%

    So really, we need freer trade with the EU, USA, Japan and China. That is where the money is.
    While once upon a time it was true that the EU had 25% of world GDP that really isn't the case anymore. It's percentage of world GDP has been falling rapidly.

    The EU 27 (excluding UK) make up just under 18.5% of GDP and falling annually. The EU is where money was once upon a time.

    We'd be crazy not to make some form of trade deal with Europe but the real opportunities are in the rest of the world not our ageing continent. Once free from Europe, so the free trade Brexit theory goes, we have a big wide world to trade with.
    We can trade with the big wide world now and we do. So does Germany. It exports five times as much to China as we do and more than we do to the US. Being a member of the EU does not hamper doing trade with the rest of the world.

    Leavers seem to think that FTAs are a silver bullet and suddenly we'll be exporting champions. Germany exports much more than us because it has better products and better export sales capability. We need to focus on improving our exporting capabilities and not rely on FTAs to solve the problem. It won't. Average tariffs are typically single digit so a free trade deal (i.e. tariff free) gives less of an advantage than exchange rate movements in a typical year.

    New FTAs are a red herring but they are the driving force behind rejecting staying in the Customs Union.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,568
    edited January 30
    FF43 said:

    Mr. 43, I'm not sure how much a 15 year forecast is worth given most people got their recent 1 year forecast somewhere between wrong and very wrong.

    Because forecasting of any kind is an inexact science, but it doesn't mean the Met Office should be shut down when it gets a forecast wrong. People should understand the data, the models, the assumptions and the confidence levels, even if it's a bit intuitive. This report on the DIRECT costs of Brexit comes with a reasonably high confidence because the variables are reasonably well understood. It also matches Treasury and third party analysis.
    The analogy between predictions in physics and predictions in economics is bogus.

    Provide one prediction in economics with the phenomenal accuracy of the prediction of the Lamb shift or the spectrum of fluctuations in the microwave background.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    Quite amusing to see the same people who deny the predictability of climate change deny that long term economic forecasts have any validity.

    I doubt they go sunbathing in January in Bournemouth, mind.

    Can you not see that there a difference between the achievements of physics and economics in terms of predictability ?

    I can see that both climate change and the likelihood of these economic predictions actuating are being denied by the same people.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    edited January 30

    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.

    Everyone in Canada, NZ and Aus is white ?

    How racist of you to ignore their immigrants and indigenous peoples.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Meeks, nobody 'denies' climate change (although some deny the wisdom of taking language typically associated with pretending the Holocaust never happened and then applying it to scientific theory, as if it should be treated as beyond doubt, the antithesis of a scientific mindset).
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,568

    Quite amusing to see the same people who deny the predictability of climate change deny that long term economic forecasts have any validity.

    I doubt they go sunbathing in January in Bournemouth, mind.

    Can you not see that there a difference between the achievements of physics and economics in terms of predictability ?

    I can see that both climate change and the likelihood of these economic predictions actuating are being denied by the same people.
    No they are not.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Have a guess what party this charming twatterer supports....

    Another idiot who thinks that getting in a war of words with someone who writes jokes for a living is going to end well...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    Fishing said:

    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.

    It's more that they have similar income levels. I never had a problem with freedom of movement with France or Germany.
    Polish GDP grew 4.6% in 2017. Can't you just be patient while they catch up?

    https://www.reuters.com/article/poland-economy-gdp/polands-2017-gdp-growth-of-4-6-pct-fastest-since-2011-idUSL8N1PP32S
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487

    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.

    How much ethnic diversity is there in Hungary? A fair bit more in Canada.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    Quite amusing to see the same people who deny the predictability of climate change deny that long term economic forecasts have any validity.

    I doubt they go sunbathing in January in Bournemouth, mind.

    Can you not see that there a difference between the achievements of physics and economics in terms of predictability ?

    I can see that both climate change and the likelihood of these economic predictions actuating are being denied by the same people.
    No they are not.
    Take a look around you. The wrong people are clap-trapping.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Fishing said:

    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.

    It's more that they have similar income levels. I never had a problem with freedom of movement with France or Germany.
    Indeed. Something like a CANZUK deal would work because there would be movement in all directions.

    The problems seen in the EU was that the migration is all one way and the migrants are entitled to housing benefits and tax credits.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    edited January 30
    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    The question for those of us who believe in free trade but consider Brexit could be beneficial is not whether freer trade is beneficial or not . . . it is whether we prioritise freer trade with the ~6% of the Earth's population that live in the EU excluding the UK, or the ~93% of the Earth's population that is out of the EU.

    On the other hand, the EU may have 6% of the population, but it has 25% of the world's GDP, the USA another 25%, China about 10% and Japan about 10%

    So really, we need freer trade with the EU, USA, Japan and China. That is where the money is.
    While once upon a time it was true that the EU had 25% of world GDP that really isn't the case anymore. It's percentage of world GDP has been falling rapidly.

    The EU 27 (excluding UK) make up just under 18.5% of GDP and falling annually. The EU is where money was once upon a time.

    We'd be crazy not to make some form of trade deal with Europe but the real opportunities are in the rest of the world not our ageing continent. Once free from Europe, so the free trade Brexit theory goes, we have a big wide world to trade with.
    Yes, the European share of the world’s economy is shrinking as more countries with larger populations become developed.

    I’ve always thought that somewhere like India would be a good starting point for a trade deal, they have high tariffs on imports of things like cars, and are increasingly making more hi-tech things themselves which they’d like to export to us. We need to use the early trade deals for a competitive advantage over the EU, so if we can make Jaguar cars noticeable cheaper in India than Mercedes cars that will be to our benefit. The Indian shareholders at JLR will be happy too. As a bonus, we’ll even send them Vijay Malliya for free, India have been trying to get him deported from London for years.
    The EU and the EU have been trying to sign an FTA for more than a decade but they have been stymied by India's demands for Mode 1 (cross border) and Mode 4 (migrant worker) supply of services. These are unusual in FTAs, don't make part of CETA and were resisted by the UK in particular. Also India pissed the Europeans off by agreeing a number of investment treaties and then unilaterally tearing them up.

    Edit and the biggest problems. India is very protectionist.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,546
    edited January 30

    Mr. 43, I'm not sure how much a 15 year forecast is worth given most people got their recent 1 year forecast somewhere between wrong and very wrong.

    The decision on the third runway at Heathrow has been made on a 40 year projection of the economic benefit compared with Gatwick and it is finely balanced.

    Oil and Pharmaceutical companies routinely do thirty year projections because of the long term nature of their investments. The decsion on the EU is long term

    The alternative is to guess or follow your prejudice.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995

    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.

    How much ethnic diversity is there in Hungary? A fair bit more in Canada.
    He's clueless - trapped inside a metropolitan bubble.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,568

    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.

    How much ethnic diversity is there in Hungary? A fair bit more in Canada.
    I was in Budapest the other day, at a charming restaurant in Buda.

    I complimented the waitress on the food and the surroundings. "Yes, it is nice in Buda by the castle. But in Pest there are many dirty Roma."

    I thought of Meeks in the Land of the Xenophobes, as I withheld my tip.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.

    How much ethnic diversity is there in Hungary? A fair bit more in Canada.
    Hungarian ethnic diversity was much reduced by the Treaty of Trianon. That was pretty much the principle on which it was drawn up: to leave Hungary only with Hungarians.

    That said, the Roma population of Hungary is substantial. It's hard to estimate because on censuses etc many Roma who can pass as white will decline to self-identify as Roma. It's maybe 1 in 10.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,272
    edited January 30

    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.

    You mean like the A8 and A2 countries?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.

    It's more that they have similar income levels. I never had a problem with freedom of movement with France or Germany.
    Indeed. Something like a CANZUK deal would work because there would be movement in all directions.

    The problems seen in the EU was that the migration is all one way and the migrants are entitled to housing benefits and tax credits.
    Migration is certainly not all one way, and the UK benefits system is a matter for the UK.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    edited January 30
    image

    It's like a KKK rally..

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Barnesian said:

    Mr. 43, I'm not sure how much a 15 year forecast is worth given most people got their recent 1 year forecast somewhere between wrong and very wrong.

    The decision on the third runway at Heathrow has been made on a 40 year projection of the economic benefit compared with Gatwick and it is finely balanced.
    The way things are going they might actually have built the damn thing 40 years from now. They’ve been officially talking about it for a decade already, and unofficially for another decade before that.
  • eekeek Posts: 1,943

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.

    It's more that they have similar income levels. I never had a problem with freedom of movement with France or Germany.
    Indeed. Something like a CANZUK deal would work because there would be movement in all directions.

    The problems seen in the EU was that the migration is all one way and the migrants are entitled to housing benefits and tax credits.
    Migration is certainly not all one way, and the UK benefits system is a matter for the UK.
    For the people who voted Brexit due to Eastern Europeans taking minimum wage jobs they hoped to do themselves the traffic is one way.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. 43, Indian bureaucratic bullshit is why F1 stopped going there. Which is good, because they had the worst circuit I've ever seen.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 506
    edited January 30
    TGOHF said:

    Ah, Canzuk. The freedom of movement movement for people who don't mind immigration from countries that are white and English-speaking.

    Everyone in Canada, NZ and Aus is white ?

    How racist of you to ignore their immigrants and indigenous peoples.

    Most of our EU migration has come from Eastern European nations which are of course about 99.5 per cent white and not exactly tolerant of diversity. So as you say it's an odd response.

    Canada, NZ and Australia are progressive multi cultural societies with which we share common legal systems, a common language, a common head of state, historic cultural and sporting links, common parliamentary systems and strong family ties. When people are asked in the UK where they would like to emigrate too those three countries top the list. Wouldn't it be quite useful to have freedom of movement with nations you might actually want to move to - barely 14000 Brits have moved to Eastern Europe since 2004.

    Freedom of movement is only productive if it is two way - it's not much use when as we have it's totally one way with the vast majority of EU members.

    Nothing racist about Canzuk - as for Eastern European attitudes no comment! Canzuk won't happen though - half the country would I be on the first plane to Sydney, Vancouver and Auckland!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1275878/Three-quarters-Britons-want-emigrate-Australia-popular-destination.html


  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 1,344
    edited January 30
    Barnesian said:

    Mr. 43, I'm not sure how much a 15 year forecast is worth given most people got their recent 1 year forecast somewhere between wrong and very wrong.

    The decision on the third runway at Heathrow has been made on a 40 year projection of the economic benefit compared with Gatwick and it is finely balanced.

    Oil and Pharmaceutical companies routinely do thirty year projections because of the long term nature of their investments. The decsion on the EU is long term

    The alternative is to guess or follow your prejudice.

    Leave it Barnesian, it’s not worth it.

    Brexiters are able to simultaneously believe that they’ll be better off outside the EU and that all facts are essentially unknowable except as personally divined.

    Brexistentialism.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    Of course Canzuk is designed to apply to the backward-looking imperialists who can't imagine that those three countries have long moved on since the 1970s. Quite why Britain would otherwise have any special tie-up with those countries, none of whose economies have much in common with Britain's, is otherwise inexplicable.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,272
    edited January 30
    The PB chewing gum is very stale today.

    I accept the economic models in the sense that even if they're wrong, they're going to be consistently wrong and therefore of some utility for comparison purposes. I think you'd have to be very Panglossian indeed to cavil that, from an economic perspective, in decreasing order of attractiveness, it goes: EU membership, EEA, FTA, WTO.

    But then I've always felt that way; the pre-EUref IFS impact report was very balanced and compared both a range of scenarios and a range of models (from the Chicken Little Credit Suisse to the frankly bonkers 'Economists for Brexit').

    Au revoir mes amis, I shall return in the Summer. Look to my return at first light on the fifth day.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995

    Of course Canzuk is designed to apply to the backward-looking imperialists who can't imagine that those three countries have long moved on since the 1970s. Quite why Britain would otherwise have any special tie-up with those countries, none of whose economies have much in common with Britain's, is otherwise inexplicable.

    Yes - Britain's economy is far more aligned to Greece, Malta and Latvia.

    Sounds like an excellent lunch was had.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892

    FF43 said:

    Mr. 43, I'm not sure how much a 15 year forecast is worth given most people got their recent 1 year forecast somewhere between wrong and very wrong.

    Because forecasting of any kind is an inexact science, but it doesn't mean the Met Office should be shut down when it gets a forecast wrong. People should understand the data, the models, the assumptions and the confidence levels, even if it's a bit intuitive. This report on the DIRECT costs of Brexit comes with a reasonably high confidence because the variables are reasonably well understood. It also matches Treasury and third party analysis.
    The analogy between predictions in physics and predictions in economics is bogus.

    Provide one prediction in economics with the phenomenal accuracy of the prediction of the Lamb shift or the spectrum of fluctuations in the microwave background.
    Not bogus. You can either make decisions based on pure prejudice or on fact based reasoning, even if those facts are not fully understood. Which is the purpose of this analysis. It was never intended to be leaked. It was there to inform politicians' decisions, where those decisions have consequences.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    edited January 30

    Mr. 43, Indian bureaucratic bullshit is why F1 stopped going there. Which is good, because they had the worst circuit I've ever seen.

    Yup, the place is full of stupid red tape that gets in the way of doing business there, especially for foreigners. Which is why it would be a good place to start with a trade deal. As I mentioned earlier we’ll even give them Vijay Malliya (Force India CEO exiled in London) if it helps the deal along.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    edited January 30
    Brom said:

    Anorak said:

    Brom said:

    Amazed by how many gullible people treat a Buzzfeed leak as news. It's journalistic standards are sub-par, reputation close to mud and is not read by anyone in the no. It makes you wonder if the Canary came out with this 'leak' if it would get the same reaction.

    As you're clearly in the no yourself, why do you think the leaked document is a fake?
    And why do you trust Buzzfeed? do you work for them?
    Does anyone any more? I thought they'd let go a lot of their staff.....

    At least they got to see the analysis before Ministers did:

    https://order-order.com/2018/01/30/civil-servants-kept-forecasts-from-ministers/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. 43, Indian bureaucratic bullshit is why F1 stopped going there. Which is good, because they had the worst circuit I've ever seen.

    Yup, the place is full of stupid red tape that gets in the way of doing business there, especially for foreigners. Which is why it would be a good place to start with a trade deal.
    So that we can import more of those practices into the UK?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. 43, Indian bureaucratic bullshit is why F1 stopped going there. Which is good, because they had the worst circuit I've ever seen.

    Yup, the place is full of stupid red tape that gets in the way of doing business there, especially for foreigners. Which is why it would be a good place to start with a trade deal.
    So that we can import more of those practices into the UK?
    No, it’s so that we can get around some of their red tape.

    I see a preferential trade deal with a rapidly expanding country of nearly a billion people as a good thing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. 43, Indian bureaucratic bullshit is why F1 stopped going there. Which is good, because they had the worst circuit I've ever seen.

    Yup, the place is full of stupid red tape that gets in the way of doing business there, especially for foreigners. Which is why it would be a good place to start with a trade deal.
    So that we can import more of those practices into the UK?
    Better to stick with the EU red tape?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 1,344
    edited January 30
    It’s also worth noting that the analysis suggests that the North East and North Ireland (and the West Midlands) are tipped to be most badly hit.

    The North East economy already underperforms - its GDP per person is just 80pc of the European average. If one takes the overall estimate of a 5pc dent to growth, then all things being equal, the average North Eastener will be poorer than the average Lithuanian come 2030.

    Actually that’s a pretty safe tip, as Lithuania is surely growing more quickly than the North East.

    Perhaps we’ll be sending Geordies to nanny in Vilnius!

    I wonder what the DUPpers make of the impact on Northern Ireland?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    TGOHF said:

    Of course Canzuk is designed to apply to the backward-looking imperialists who can't imagine that those three countries have long moved on since the 1970s. Quite why Britain would otherwise have any special tie-up with those countries, none of whose economies have much in common with Britain's, is otherwise inexplicable.

    Yes - Britain's economy is far more aligned to Greece, Malta and Latvia.

    Sounds like an excellent lunch was had.
    Britain's trade with Malta is only marginally less than that with New Zealand, though New Zealand has ten times the population of Malta. As I thought, you're dealing off out of date preconceptions.
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