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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As she leaves for China TMay says she’s not a quitter and will

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited January 31 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As she leaves for China TMay says she’s not a quitter and will lead party into GE2022

How's this going to go down with CON. MPs? She insists that she'll fight next election https://t.co/3BFYNssbe4

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    edited January 31
    Delusional.

    I agree Mike. This might prove to be the final misjudgement.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    Theresa May could easily have come out with some platitude about getting on with the job, so presumably this is intended. She would have done far better to reassert her authority through a sweeping reshuffle and dare the disappointed to act.

    But do enough Conservative MPs have the minerals?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    O/T Populus have just produced an interesting breakdown of how London voted at ward level in June 2017.

    If the outcome were the same in May, Richmond, Sutton, Kingston, Wandsworth, Westminster, Harrow, and Barnet would all be tight contests. Havering, Kensington, Hillingdon, Bromley, and Bexley would be safe Conservative. Everywhere else would be safe Labour. Indeed, Labour would win every seat in Haringey, Islington, Hackney, Tower Hamlets, Newham, Barking and Dagenham, Lewisham, Lambeth and Southwark.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,095
    I expect her to go after the Brexit deal is made . I think to go now would be bad for the country .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    Fifth like Boris
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    Sixth like Arsenal
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    Like Dave she sort of has no choice but to say she will carry on. Otherwise the current speculation would tip over into anarchy.

    There is a difference between it being "understood" that something might happen and it being formal policy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Nowhere in the reported comments does May say “I will lead the Tories into GE2022” - sloppy reporting by the Guardian and OGH really should read beyond the headlines.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872
    May will stay because both Tory Remainers and Leavers worry that whoever might replace her could be worse for them.

    That calculation will change post-Brexit, when it becomes about who can best fight GE2022, but it's not a question for now.

    If by some quirk of fate Brady does get 48 letters, and a leadership contest is triggered, I'd expect May to win it but with her own authority, and the UK's negotiating hand, weakened by it.
  • Is Nick Timothy advising her again??
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Sun headline more accurate than Guardian:

    'I'M NOT A QUITTER' Theresa May hits back at mutinous Tories as she vows to stay on as Prime Minister until the ‘job is done’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5464045/theresa-may-says-she-will-not-quit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
  • A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election.

    A YouGov poll for WPI Strategy, a consultancy, found 69 per cent of people who voted for the Conservative think Mrs May should continue as prime minister, with 18 per cent saying that she should stand down and let someone else take over. The rest did not know.

    Voters were not enthralled by the prospect of any alternative Tory leaders, with Boris Johnson the most divisive candidate.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/theresa-may-faces-down-backbench-critics-5k68c90v0
  • Nowhere in the reported comments does May say “I will lead the Tories into GE2022” - sloppy reporting by the Guardian and OGH really should read beyond the headlines.

    Per The Times

    Speaking to reporters on her RAF Voyager flight to China at the start of a three-day trade mission, Mrs May said: “First and foremost I’m a servant of my country and my party. I’m not a quitter, and there is a long-term job to be done.”

    The language consciously echoed her vow last year to fight the next election as Tory leader.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    edited January 31

    Nowhere in the reported comments does May say “I will lead the Tories into GE2022” - sloppy reporting by the Guardian and OGH really should read beyond the headlines.

    She herself does need to be opaque on the issue too, of course - if she says she will definitely fight the next election she fuels moves to depose her, and if she says she won't, she is off on the slippery slope of 'name a date' that is familiar to previous PMs.

    She knows she won't, but has to behave as if she is up for it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,392

    Nowhere in the reported comments does May say “I will lead the Tories into GE2022” - sloppy reporting by the Guardian and OGH really should read beyond the headlines.

    That's a fun thing to misreport because she can't really go back and *deny* that she said she'll lead the party into GE2022...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    "Come'n 'ave a go if yer fink yer 'ard enuff...."

    ....as the letters pour in.....

    If it were possible to send letters to Brady to get rid of Hammond, I reckon he'd have 50% already, not 15%. There'll be a bunch of MPs now thinking, well let's stick in a letter - and have a twofer....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Nowhere in the reported comments does May say “I will lead the Tories into GE2022” - sloppy reporting by the Guardian and OGH really should read beyond the headlines.

    Per The Times

    Speaking to reporters on her RAF Voyager flight to China at the start of a three-day trade mission, Mrs May said: “First and foremost I’m a servant of my country and my party. I’m not a quitter, and there is a long-term job to be done.”

    The language consciously echoed her vow last year to fight the next election as Tory leader.
    “echoed” not “repeated”

    As IanB2 points out May has to be opaque, which she has been.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    What on Earth was she supposed to say?

    Only 18% of her own party’s voters want her to stand down now, so it’s all just media speculation - with a certain editor undoubtedly egging on the rest of them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497

    Is Nick Timothy advising her again??

    Nah, the Jezziah is.

    Mind you, it nearly worked for him.

    Maybe then it's the ghost of Thatcher, who said she wanted to be PM until 1995 the week before she was toppled?

    Or why look that far? Perhaps it's Blair.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    ydoethur said:

    Is Nick Timothy advising her again??

    Nah, the Jezziah is.

    Mind you, it nearly worked for him.

    Maybe then it's the ghost of Thatcher, who said she wanted to be PM until 1995 the week before she was toppled?

    Or why look that far? Perhaps it's Blair.
    But Blair knew that by staying on, he was protecting the country from having a truly awful Labour leader inflicted on them.

    Ah.....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    Reporting verbatim what a major political figure says without interpreting what it means is sloppy reporting. "Julius Caesar said nothing about becoming emperor of Rome when he crossed the Rubicon. He was just chatting about the game of dice he was having."
  • A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
  • Sandpit said:

    What on Earth was she supposed to say?

    Only 18% of her own party’s voters want her to stand down now, so it’s all just media speculation - with a certain editor undoubtedly egging on the rest of them.

    She should have said ‘I bitterly regret sacking George Osborne but it’s either me as PM or Boris’
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    edited January 31
    TSE.....titter.....



    Quite a swing from level pegging:

    Change: 46
    Keep as is: 45
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Decline in exclusive 'Scottish not British":

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    If the poll had been done under AV, 100% of respondents would have had electoral reform in their top two responses.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497

    ydoethur said:

    Is Nick Timothy advising her again??

    Nah, the Jezziah is.

    Mind you, it nearly worked for him.

    Maybe then it's the ghost of Thatcher, who said she wanted to be PM until 1995 the week before she was toppled?

    Or why look that far? Perhaps it's Blair.
    But Blair knew that by staying on, he was protecting the country from having a truly awful Labour leader inflicted on them.

    Ah.....
    One of the worst things about May and Corbyn is that they make me feel nostalgic for the days of the egregious Brown, with such intellectual titans as Bob Ainsworth and Lord Adonis in his cabinet (and to be fair, the likes of Darling and Mandelson who undoubtedly had talent even if in the case of the latter they had no sense).

    And I never, ever thought I would type that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,014
    IanB2 is right that she has to say something roughly like this, but Mike is also right - if she isn't forced out soon, she will own the Brexit outcome, and ejecting her then will look too embarrassing since the Tories will own it too - how do they fight an election on the basis of "We did an awful job on Brexit but vote for us as the competent party"?

    But unless the 48 letters are reached soon, I think the flashpoint is the May elections. On current polling theywill be a bit meh, with Labour doing reasonably well but not much better than 4 years ago, when Miliband did reasonably well. If that's the outcome, I think he'll lead the party in the next GE.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Decline in 'Scottish not British' - so much for 'its a one way street'

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497

    I think the flashpoint is the May elections.

    Hard to dispute that :smile:

    (PS do you mean 'she'll lead them'?)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Decline in exclusive 'Scottish not British":

    Good news, sounds like Scottish politics might be returning to something approaching normal soon.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,095

    Nowhere in the reported comments does May say “I will lead the Tories into GE2022” - sloppy reporting by the Guardian and OGH really should read beyond the headlines.

    Per The Times

    Speaking to reporters on her RAF Voyager flight to China at the start of a three-day trade mission, Mrs May said: “First and foremost I’m a servant of my country and my party. I’m not a quitter, and there is a long-term job to be done.”

    The language consciously echoed her vow last year to fight the next election as Tory leader.
    No it doesn't and putting it in bold makes no difference.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,095
    IanB2 said:

    Nowhere in the reported comments does May say “I will lead the Tories into GE2022” - sloppy reporting by the Guardian and OGH really should read beyond the headlines.

    She herself does need to be opaque on the issue too, of course - if she says she will definitely fight the next election she fuels moves to depose her, and if she says she won't, she is off on the slippery slope of 'name a date' that is familiar to previous PMs.

    She knows she won't, but has to behave as if she is up for it.
    correct.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    edited January 31

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    TOPPING said:

    Like Dave she sort of has no choice but to say she will carry on. Otherwise the current speculation would tip over into anarchy.

    There is a difference between it being "understood" that something might happen and it being formal policy.

    I think you have the right of it there. There are times, and maybe this is one of them maybe not, where everyone knows what is meant differs from what is said but we mostly agree to pretend.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Sandpit said:

    Decline in exclusive 'Scottish not British":

    Good news, sounds like Scottish politics might be returning to something approaching normal soon.

    The English equivalents are more stable - with much lower 'English not British' - but as in Scotland the top response is 'Equally [Nation] plus British'

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    I'd always assumed the way the party will justify ousting her once Brexit is done would be to say 'it was a tough and divisive job well done, now it's a new era and time for a new leader to take the country forward. Thank you for your service'. Credible? Perhaps not if Brexit is a shambles, but if it is there's no saving the leader anyway. If it's a roaring success perhaps the danger is support picking up for her staying, forgetting the lessons of laSt June, but a middling outcome? I could see it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,014
    ydoethur said:

    I think the flashpoint is the May elections.

    Hard to dispute that :smile:

    (PS do you mean 'she'll lead them'?)
    Er, yes, typo - didn't mean Miliband would lead the Tories. Though they might do better if he did :).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    edited January 31




    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.

    That's just spoilt Ed Miliband's breakfast bacon butty....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Good morning, everyone.

    Not much else she can say, but the specific mention of the next election might stir some do move against her rather than biding their time.
  • A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    There's only one poll that counts.

    David Cameron makes net seat gains/wins a majority.

    Mrs May makes net seat losses/loses a majority.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    IanB2 is right that she has to say something roughly like this, but Mike is also right - if she isn't forced out soon, she will own the Brexit outcome, and ejecting her then will look too embarrassing since the Tories will own it too - how do they fight an election on the basis of "We did an awful job on Brexit but vote for us as the competent party"?

    But unless the 48 letters are reached soon, I think the flashpoint is the May elections. On current polling theywill be a bit meh, with Labour doing reasonably well but not much better than 4 years ago, when Miliband did reasonably well. If that's the outcome, I think he'll lead the party in the next GE.

    That sounds reasonable Nick. Right now the polling suggests she’s the most popular Conservative, which should make a few of the MPs think if it’s worth the hassle to replace her with someone less popular among the public. If she survives past the local elections (which as you note was a Miliband high point last time out) I think she’ll survive until at least 2020.

    Most of the opposition to her now is from people opposed to Brexit. Once that issue becomes (relatively) settled, with treaties signed, then a lot of the attention will turn to domestic policy where she has a good range of ideas.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,014
    Vote today on whether to move out of Parliament for a few years:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/31/houses-of-parliament-could-be-placed-on-at-risk-register-mps-told

    I helped organise a big animal welfare reception there on Monday (attracted 40 Tory MPs) - we were amused to see two plump mice wandering round hoovering up the crumbs. But it's probably illustrative of the crumbling infrastructure, and Something Must Be Done, as they say.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200
    At least Old Etonians can, usually, spell.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    Given that May's own ratings are pretty average for a PM, the public must see qualities in her that political aficionados do not.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Vote today on whether to move out of Parliament for a few years:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/31/houses-of-parliament-could-be-placed-on-at-risk-register-mps-told

    I helped organise a big animal welfare reception there on Monday (attracted 40 Tory MPs) - we were amused to see two plump mice wandering round hoovering up the crumbs. But it's probably illustrative of the crumbling infrastructure, and Something Must Be Done, as they say.

    Rather like Heathrow’s new runway and HS2, the Parliamentary renovations come under JFDI rules.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    Sean_F said:

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    Given that May's own ratings are pretty average for a PM, the public must see qualities in her that political aficionados do not.
    I reckon there's a chunk of the population - quite possibly Remainers - who are quite sympathetic to her plight, because they think that she was given a hospital pass with implementing Brexit.

    Although, she was stood on the wing, screaming for the ball...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,368
    Sean_F said:

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    Given that May's own ratings are pretty average for a PM, the public must see qualities in her that political aficionados do not.
    I think she has sympathy. Some of the Tory Mp's are just ugh!!!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    There's only one poll that counts.

    David Cameron makes net seat gains/wins a majority.
    Against a weaker opponent with worse policies.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369
    edited January 31
    Deleted
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131

    TSE.....titter.....



    Quite a swing from level pegging:

    Change: 46
    Keep as is: 45

    Ah yes, effective government. How many large working majorities have we had recently.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,694

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    There's only one poll that counts.

    David Cameron makes net seat gains/wins a majority.
    Against a weaker opponent with worse policies.
    Perhaps she could have strengthened her chances by offering a referendum with a binary choice, a choice which she thought would be a disaster for the country if the vote went the wrong way?

    Oh wait...

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369


    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.

    We should not take these polls seriously, especially here where there is a binary choice: leader or policies. Probably 93 per cent of respondents should have chosen option (c) had it been offered -- because I always vote Conservative (or Labour).
  • A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    There's only one poll that counts.

    David Cameron makes net seat gains/wins a majority.
    Against a weaker opponent with worse policies.
    Only because she ran the worst campaign in history.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    Nowhere does May actually say she will fight the 2022 the general election. All she says is she is focused on Brexit and domestic issues and the next general election is not until 2022 but the leadership is up to Tory Party rules.

    Given how busy she is with Brexit etc and the fact the Tories are still almost neck and neck with Labour in the polls and no alternative leader polls significantly better than she does and many poll worse, an entirely plausible position I would have thought
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited January 31
    New Conservative Home poll has only 26% of Tory members wanting May to resign now but 45%, a clear plurality, want her to resign before the next general election and a new Tory leader to take on Corbyn then

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/01/our-survey-big-rise-in-those-saying-may-should-leave-number-ten-now-but-a-majority-believes-otherwise.html
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010

    Sean_F said:

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    Given that May's own ratings are pretty average for a PM, the public must see qualities in her that political aficionados do not.
    I reckon there's a chunk of the population - quite possibly Remainers - who are quite sympathetic to her plight, because they think that she was given a hospital pass with implementing Brexit.

    Although, she was stood on the wing, screaming for the ball...
    In general, though, it's Leave voters who are most supportive of her.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    edited January 31
    If you backed may to go from Jan-Mar or Apr-Jun on Betfair (was 10 a few weeks ago, 12 more recently for the former) you can hedge now at 8 and 6.8 respectively, if you're so inclined.

    Edited extra bit: and Alonso's now 22 for the title. I've already made my pre-season bets, but if I hadn't I'd put a little on that (I do prefer each way for such things, but those odds are just wrong, I think).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    There's only one poll that counts.

    David Cameron makes net seat gains/wins a majority.
    Against a weaker opponent with worse policies.
    Only because she ran the worst campaign in history.
    Nationally, atrocious.

    Locally, some of us battled on gamely....

    My big fear is if there was a need for a snap election, the Tories still wouldn't know how to fight it. They'd still be clueless as to how to sell May, who seems pretty clueless on how to sell herself. Corbyn on the other hand would just repeat the same campaign as 2017, hoping nobody got round to pointing out the lack of Emperor's carefully costed garments. Again.

    Which is why so many Tory MPs have an itchy finger on that ejector-seat button..
  • May can go on and on and on and on.

    Thats the whole point in being a Zombie
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    HYUFD said:

    New Conservative Home poll has only 26% of Tory members wanting May to resign now but 45%, a clear plurality, want her to resign before the next general election and a new Tory leader to take on Corbyn then

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/01/our-survey-big-rise-in-those-saying-may-should-leave-number-ten-now-but-a-majority-believes-otherwise.html

    Hopefully all this polling should be giving food for thought to those MPs considering some letter-writing. Much better to wait a couple of years, let Mrs May take any flack from Brexit and find a new young leader a year before the election
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    Given that May's own ratings are pretty average for a PM, the public must see qualities in her that political aficionados do not.
    I reckon there's a chunk of the population - quite possibly Remainers - who are quite sympathetic to her plight, because they think that she was given a hospital pass with implementing Brexit.

    Although, she was stood on the wing, screaming for the ball...
    In general, though, it's Leave voters who are most supportive of her.
    Well, only because most Tories are Leave supporters.... I suspect her most vociferous critics are too!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,561

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    More data you won't have an answer to:



    So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.
    2017 the Tories could have ran with a proverbial tub of lard as their leader and most Tories would still have found that to be a better leader than Jeremy Corbyn.

    However who was responsible for the policies adapted in the manifesto? Who was responsible for an utterly dismal manifesto that went down like a bucket of cold sick? The party leader, Theresa May.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Conservative Home poll has only 26% of Tory members wanting May to resign now but 45%, a clear plurality, want her to resign before the next general election and a new Tory leader to take on Corbyn then

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/01/our-survey-big-rise-in-those-saying-may-should-leave-number-ten-now-but-a-majority-believes-otherwise.html

    Hopefully all this polling should be giving food for thought to those MPs considering some letter-writing. Much better to wait a couple of years, let Mrs May take any flack from Brexit and find a new young leader a year before the election
    Exactly, a new leader now would be a tired face by 2022
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    HYUFD said:

    New Conservative Home poll has only 26% of Tory members wanting May to resign now but 45%, a clear plurality, want her to resign before the next general election and a new Tory leader to take on Corbyn then

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/01/our-survey-big-rise-in-those-saying-may-should-leave-number-ten-now-but-a-majority-believes-otherwise.html

    The way to square that circle is for 100 Conservative MPs to send a letter to Brady, inside another envelope that says "To be opened on 31st March 2019".....
  • Nigelb said:
    Probably a German car manufacturer thing.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 4,835
    My hypothesis is that one reason Theresa May has survived is because the more Remainy wing of the party is worried that the membership would elect a more Brexity leader and the more Brexity wing is worried that the MPs vote would be stitched up to foist a more Remainy leader on to the party.

    This keeps her safe until she has to decide in negotiations between her Lancaster House position and the commitment on the Irish border in phase 1 of the negotiations. When that contradiction is resolved she will then become what one wing or the other most fear, at which point they will have little to lose from pushing her out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    edited January 31
    Mr. HYUFD, that's a sound point on tired faces, however, May being rubbish could harm the Conservatives the longer she's there. Do you prefer a tired face in 2022, or a couple more years of May failing and her Cabinet all jockeying for leadership positions?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370
    Profits warning for Crapita I see. Wonder how big the pension deficit in that one will be when it fails...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    edited January 31
    so FOM timing eligibility seems to be the main one which will attract headlines.

    Interesting that duration of the transition phase is amber. With the Euroloons screaming that it should be strictly time-limited, and the EU saying it's strictly time-limited, one wonders why Tezza didn't make the easiest call on the planet and say it's, er, strictly time-limited.

    Where's the market on transition period > Dec 2020??
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    edited January 31

    My hypothesis is that one reason Theresa May has survived is because the more Remainy wing of the party is worried that the membership would elect a more Brexity leader and the more Brexity wing is worried that the MPs vote would be stitched up to foist a more Remainy leader on to the party.

    This keeps her safe until she has to decide in negotiations between her Lancaster House position and the commitment on the Irish border in phase 1 of the negotiations. When that contradiction is resolved she will then become what one wing or the other most fear, at which point they will have little to lose from pushing her out.

    She is also the one sitting on the lid of the boiling pot. My feeling is that the various factions are just about keeping some kind of discipline. A new leadership election might cause MPs to think: "f*ck it", the gloves would be off, and (even more) general disarray would follow.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,563
    Morning all :)

    On topic, what else was Theresa May going to say ? No politician could or would say anything else - Margaret Thatcher wasn't a quitter on the Tuesday evening but had gone by Thursday morning. David Cameron wasn't going to quit if the EU Referendum was lost but then quit.

    As to whether May should go that's for the Conservative Party to decide - it's got bugger all to do with the rest of us who just have to live with the consequences. As an outsider May is safe until or unless two things happen - a) she is clearly shown to be a loser and b) someone else is clearly shown to be a winner.

    It's worth repeating - what did for Thatcher weren't the polls showing the Conservatives 10 points behind Labour with her as leader - they'd been in worse positions - but the polls showing the Conservative and Labour parties level under Heseltine and later Major.

    The election became about her and the realisation among MPs in marginal seats they would lose with her and win without her and when it comes down to it self-preservation will trump loyalty any day and every day.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    HYUFD said:
    Davidson could only lead a post-Brexit party. With a commitment that she wasn't a Rejoiner. And be sat in an English seat. But she would be very difficult for the Left to fight without the very worst of their Nasty Party tendencies floating, scum-like, to the top. And I suspect the LibDems would throw up their hands in horror at the thought of her as Tory leader. Bye bye, south-west London....

    It would be nice to have a cheerful leader of the Conservative Party. Someone who isn't apologetic.

    I can't see Rudd ever leading. Gove would have to have gone around knifing most of the Party for Rudd to get the top job. Such as it would be.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 1,935
    edited January 31

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    LOL!! I love this guy! He nailed a perfect description of Tony Blair!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    murali_s said:

    A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election

    So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?

    More sloppy reporting.
    image
    LOL!! I love this guy! He nailed a perfect description of Tony Blair!
    I remember when he worked for Gordon Brown....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    My hypothesis is that one reason Theresa May has survived is because the more Remainy wing of the party is worried that the membership would elect a more Brexity leader and the more Brexity wing is worried that the MPs vote would be stitched up to foist a more Remainy leader on to the party.

    This keeps her safe until she has to decide in negotiations between her Lancaster House position and the commitment on the Irish border in phase 1 of the negotiations. When that contradiction is resolved she will then become what one wing or the other most fear, at which point they will have little to lose from pushing her out.

    Agree with the majority of that. The members are much more pro-Leave than the MPs, and if the latter went with a Hammond v Rudd stitch-up it would leave the party in the same mess as the red team - but while in government.

    Everyone needs to calm down for a couple of years, let Brexit happen and then think about Mrs May’s suitability to face the electorate.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,334
    I'm afraid I disagree with Mike. May will make it through the next few weeks and won't see it through to 2022. His comment in his header:

    "The broad view within the parliamentary party has been in that Theresa May would stand down in 2019"

    is right - but it may be that she has to be pushed into standing down. Her determination to fight on doesn't change that.

    Mike's correct that for her and her supporters, there can always be found reasons for not acting now (or for a preferred but undefined 'later'), but some reasons are better than others. The intensity of the Brexit negotiations is a prime reason for not acting now but that reason will end in the Spring of next year. Yes, there'll still be the final exit arrangement to sort out but a few months' breathing space then might actually be a good thing.

    The big difference between now and, say, Thatcher or Major's time, is that then there was one scheduled leadership election a year which both focussed attention on that time but also meant that the scope to act at any other given time was very limited. Now, a leadership election can be triggered at any point, which while the argument of 'now or never' no longer applies (unlike in 1990 when if Heseltine hadn't acted after Howe's resignation, Thatcher would undoubtedly have led the Tories into 1992), it also means that the parliamentary party can act on a trigger of any given moment.

    I wouldn't yet discount a delegation of grey-suited men going to No 10 next year to advise the PM to take the graceful way out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200
    Interesting note on the BBC site about the security issues around Brexit, the need for data sharing and the need for common standards on data.
    We manage it, sort of, with the US, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem.

    Unless we make it so!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,707
    Pulpstar said:

    Profits warning for Crapita I see. Wonder how big the pension deficit in that one will be when it fails...

    https://www.ft.com/content/dc010d3c-065c-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5 Capita shares drop 35% after profit warning.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369
    Talk of May standing down in 2019 should remind us that without Brexit, David Cameron was widely expected to resign in 2018 -- so there is an alternative history where Cameron resigns in a month or two and is replaced by Theresa May.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,563

    Interesting note on the BBC site about the security issues around Brexit, the need for data sharing and the need for common standards on data.
    We manage it, sort of, with the US, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem.

    Unless we make it so!

    We will be implementing the General Data Protection Regulations in May which are part of the EU Crime & Justice directive. In preparation for us leaving the EU and coming out of its jurisdiction (2019 for the first and end of 2020 for the second it seems) there is a UK Data Protection Bill going through Parliament which will put all the aspects of the GDPR into UK law.

    As for an Information Sharing Protocol with the EU on our exit, that won't be too difficult to put together.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Yorkcity said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Profits warning for Crapita I see. Wonder how big the pension deficit in that one will be when it fails...

    https://www.ft.com/content/dc010d3c-065c-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5 Capita shares drop 35% after profit warning.
    Ouch. What chance they got in a few low-bidding wars with Carillion over the past few years?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    stodge said:

    Interesting note on the BBC site about the security issues around Brexit, the need for data sharing and the need for common standards on data.
    We manage it, sort of, with the US, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem.

    Unless we make it so!

    ..there is a UK Data Protection Bill going through Parliament which will put all the aspects of the GDPR into UK law.

    I bloody love this taking back control.
  • Talk of May standing down in 2019 should remind us that without Brexit, David Cameron was widely expected to resign in 2018 -- so there is an alternative history where Cameron resigns in a month or two and is replaced by Theresa May.

    Nah, he was planning to stand down in time for the 2019 Tory conference.
  • Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.

    If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.

    She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    Mr. HYUFD, that's a sound point on tired faces, however, May being rubbish could harm the Conservatives the longer she's there. Do you prefer a tired face in 2022, or a couple more years of May failing and her Cabinet all jockeying for leadership positions?

    Except with the Tories almost level with Labour in the polls there is no real evidence she is harming the Conservatives and indeed most polling has no alternative bar Davidson doing any better than May and most doing worse
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,334
    edited January 31
    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Interesting note on the BBC site about the security issues around Brexit, the need for data sharing and the need for common standards on data.
    We manage it, sort of, with the US, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem.

    Unless we make it so!

    ..there is a UK Data Protection Bill going through Parliament which will put all the aspects of the GDPR into UK law.

    I bloody love this taking back control.
    Whether or not it'd be a good idea in principle to copy the EU data protection legislation (yes, it would), the fact that the UK is still an EU member is rather pertinent in why the bill's going through.
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