Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest local by elections see a LAB loss to LDs on swing of 35

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited February 2 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest local by elections see a LAB loss to LDs on swing of 35% in strong Leave area

Falmouth, Smithick on Cornwall (Lab defence) Result: Lab 643 (60% +20% on last time), Con 184 (17% -7% on last time), Lib Dem 184 (17% -2% on last time), Green 57 (5% -11% on last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 459 (43%) on a swing of 13.5% from Con to Lab

Read the full story here


Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 18,467
    edited February 2
    Thirst.

    Thanks, Harry.

    I'd love this to be a sign of a resurgence for the Lib Dems, as I feel there is both a market for them, and a position developing.

    However I seriously doubt that the great invisible man, aka Cable, is the person to take advantage of any developments.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,685
    edited February 2
    fpt;

    Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.

    If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 1,190
    edited February 2

    Thirst.

    Thanks, Harry.

    I'd love this to be a sign of a resurgence for the Lib Dems, as I feel there is both a market for them, and a position developing.

    However I seriously doubt that the great invisible man, aka Cable, is the person to take advantage of any developments.

    I'm not sure how much the lack of media attention garnered by the Lib Dems is really Cable's fault. He pops up every now and again to give his opinion, particularly on financial and business matters. I think the problem is more that the Conservatives and, to a lesser extent, Labour are hogging all the attention with their attention-grabbing internal strife and involvement in the tragi-comedy of Brexit. The sensible and united Lib Dems are simply too boring to report on. They could do with instigating a scandal or two!
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 617
    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.

    If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.

    And of course reinstating the death penalty would be incompatible with membership of the EU.
  • rpjs said:

    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.

    If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.

    And of course reinstating the death penalty would be incompatible with membership of the EU.
    I thought it was an ECHR thing not a CJEU thing.

    Plus we had a de facto ban on the death penalty long before we joined the EC/EU.

    Even JRM is opposed to the death penalty.

    Off the top of my head the only Tory in the cabinet I think in favour of the death penalty is David Davis.

    What a hypocrite he is, pretends to be the champion of civil rights yet...
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,673
    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.

    If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.

    Chances of reintroducing the death penalty in my opinion? 5% or less in the next 30 years.

    You could argue we do have a death penalty. Parts of the military are able to take out a specific person as a target. Spooks? Who knows.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 617

    rpjs said:

    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.

    If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.

    And of course reinstating the death penalty would be incompatible with membership of the EU.
    I thought it was an ECHR thing not a CJEU thing.

    Plus we had a de facto ban on the death penalty long before we joined the EC/EU.

    Even JRM is opposed to the death penalty.

    Off the top of my head the only Tory in the cabinet I think in favour of the death penalty is David Davis.

    What a hypocrite he is, pretends to be the champion of civil rights yet...
    We would have to denounce the Sixth and Thirteenth Protocols of the ECHR to reinstate the death penalty, but its not of itself incompatible with remaining subject to the ECHR. The death penalty is also forbidden by the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights as given legal force by the Lisbon Treaty so abolition is de jure part of the EU acquis. Abolition is also a requirement for membership of the Council of Europe so we'd have to leave that too.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,489

    rpjs said:

    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.

    If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.

    And of course reinstating the death penalty would be incompatible with membership of the EU.
    I thought it was an ECHR thing not a CJEU thing.

    Plus we had a de facto ban on the death penalty long before we joined the EC/EU.

    Even JRM is opposed to the death penalty.

    Off the top of my head the only Tory in the cabinet I think in favour of the death penalty is David Davis.

    What a hypocrite he is, pretends to be the champion of civil rights yet...
    "I do not campaign to restore the death penalty. (Actually I have never even made a speech on the subject, but it seems to fascinate interviewers.) But it is my personal, moral, opinion that, in the most serious multiple murder cases, where the evidence is overwhelming (not just beyond reasonable doubt), it is justifiable."

    Probably a majority opinion that.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/david-davis-you-ask-the-questions-852351.html
  • philiph said:

    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.

    If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.

    Chances of reintroducing the death penalty in my opinion? 5% or less in the next 30 years.

    You could argue we do have a death penalty. Parts of the military are able to take out a specific person as a target. Spooks? Who knows.
    Taking out people in the battlefield/who are a clear and present danger to the public isn't a death penalty.

    I'm going to sound like Donald Rumsfeld and Alberto Gonzales, but they are enemy combatants.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 617
    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.

    If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.

    And of course reinstating the death penalty would be incompatible with membership of the EU.
    I thought it was an ECHR thing not a CJEU thing.

    Plus we had a de facto ban on the death penalty long before we joined the EC/EU.

    Even JRM is opposed to the death penalty.

    Off the top of my head the only Tory in the cabinet I think in favour of the death penalty is David Davis.

    What a hypocrite he is, pretends to be the champion of civil rights yet...
    We would have to denounce the Sixth and Thirteenth Protocols of the ECHR to reinstate the death penalty, but its not of itself incompatible with remaining subject to the ECHR. The death penalty is also forbidden by the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights as given legal force by the Lisbon Treaty so abolition is de jure part of the EU acquis. Abolition is also a requirement for membership of the Council of Europe so we'd have to leave that too.
    BTW the only country in Europe that currently has the death penalty (and consequently is the only European country not to be a member of the Council of Europe is Belarus. I wonder if they'd be interested in a FTA?
  • rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.

    If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.

    And of course reinstating the death penalty would be incompatible with membership of the EU.
    I thought it was an ECHR thing not a CJEU thing.

    Plus we had a de facto ban on the death penalty long before we joined the EC/EU.

    Even JRM is opposed to the death penalty.

    Off the top of my head the only Tory in the cabinet I think in favour of the death penalty is David Davis.

    What a hypocrite he is, pretends to be the champion of civil rights yet...
    We would have to denounce the Sixth and Thirteenth Protocols of the ECHR to reinstate the death penalty, but its not of itself incompatible with remaining subject to the ECHR. The death penalty is also forbidden by the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights as given legal force by the Lisbon Treaty so abolition is de jure part of the EU acquis. Abolition is also a requirement for membership of the Council of Europe so we'd have to leave that too.
    Cheers, I suspect reintroduction of the death penalty is a non starter.
  • Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 441
    philiph said:

    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.

    If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.

    Chances of reintroducing the death penalty in my opinion? 5% or less in the next 30 years.

    You could argue we do have a death penalty. Parts of the military are able to take out a specific person as a target. Spooks? Who knows.
    I'd like to think you're right about that, but I think it's quite complacent.

    The massive growth of the ethnic minority population likely over the next 30 years, muslims especially, could well tilt average public opinion back towards a more conservative stance on issues like the death penalty and homosexuality.

    And we appear to be heading into quite a crime wave as we reap the whirlwind of years of police cuts and defective politically correct leadership, not to mention the worsening problems of terrorism.

    Personally I wouldn't be surprised if capital punishment was back in 30 years' time.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,780
    You know it's a slow friday when PB starts on the death penalty....
  • Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    You know it's a slow friday when PB starts on the death penalty....

    Surely a ban is a quite sufficient deterrent ?
  • You know it's a slow friday when PB starts on the death penalty....

    First we start on those who like pineapple on pizza, then those who think Die Hard is a Christmas film.
  • All is not well with Germany v Trump and US

    Deutsche Bank CRISIS: German giant posts £1.9 BILLION loss and blames US tax reform
    DEUTSCHE Bank has blamed US tax reforms for a net loss of £1.9 billion (€2.2 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2017.

    Deutsche Bank chief James von Moltke addresses revenue drop

    The finance titan posted a £436 million (€497 million) loss for the year, marking the third consecutive annual loss for Deutsche Bank.

    Reuters had forecast a net loss of £1.1 billion (€1.25 billion) for the German lender in the last quarter of 2017, however Deutsche exceeded this by a wide margin.

    The bank said its profit margins had worsened due to a drop in investment bankin and changes to the system of taxation in the US, CNBC said.

    It explained it had to cough up for a non-cash charge of around £1.2 billion (€1.4 billion), due to a valuation adjustment on Deferred Tax Assets in the US.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.

    You could say that the Lib Dems are winning here :D

    Mr. Eagles, if you had the same appreciation of classical history as Hans Gruber, you wouldn't hold such silly opinions.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight
    In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,684

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    Brilliant.

    Wasn't the reshuffle the omniomnisomethingsomething shambles? What about some other piece of utterly overhyped news? That was surely the corner turned?

    Surely.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,014
    In case anyone has nothing better to do, you should be able to catch a Sky News interview with me (on live exports, praising the government) around 830.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,646

    It explained it had to cough up for a non-cash charge of around £1.2 billion (€1.4 billion), due to a valuation adjustment on Deferred Tax Assets in the US.

    Hmm - 'cough up' for 'non-cash charge'? Does this journalist have the faintest clue what these words mean?
  • Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight
    In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.
    Grasping at straws - tell me when it is 15% plus
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,236

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/oneillnutces_uk_5a747294e4b01ce33eb2243b

    Passionate Brexiteers are seen as a “bunch of emotional nutcases” outside of the UK, former Tory Treasury minister Lord O’Neill has said.

    The ex-Goldman Sachs chief economist, who quit his post as a minister last autumn, also hit out at Leave backers “trashing” civil servants in the Treasury, calling their claims “ridiculous nonsense”.
  • Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight
    This poll also has 'Don't Know' beating Theresa May on the best PM question.

    The assassination is going quite well
  • tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Looks that way Tyson but logically Corbyn should be out of sight and he is not
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight
    This poll also has 'Don't Know' beating Theresa May on the best PM question.
    Theresa May is doing her best to steal all of Don’t Know’s positions.
  • http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/oneillnutces_uk_5a747294e4b01ce33eb2243b

    Passionate Brexiteers are seen as a “bunch of emotional nutcases” outside of the UK, former Tory Treasury minister Lord O’Neill has said.

    The ex-Goldman Sachs chief economist, who quit his post as a minister last autumn, also hit out at Leave backers “trashing” civil servants in the Treasury, calling their claims “ridiculous nonsense”.

    Predictable remainer and remainer comments
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 227



    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    You might have noticed there was something of a media campaign the other way during the election (and the 2ish years leading up to it), remind me again just how far the Conservatives ended up out of sight thanks to that?

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight
    In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.
    Grasping at straws - tell me when it is 15% plus
    You can either place credence in this poll or not. Your call.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,993

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/oneillnutces_uk_5a747294e4b01ce33eb2243b

    Passionate Brexiteers are seen as a “bunch of emotional nutcases” outside of the UK, former Tory Treasury minister Lord O’Neill has said.

    The ex-Goldman Sachs chief economist, who quit his post as a minister last autumn, also hit out at Leave backers “trashing” civil servants in the Treasury, calling their claims “ridiculous nonsense”.

    What a surprise. Eurofanatic who was a senior member of a company involved in some of the EU's biggest scandals continues in his efforts to undermine Brexit. I suspect he has had rather more than the traditional 30 pieces of silver for his efforts.
  • Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight
    In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.
    Grasping at straws - tell me when it is 15% plus
    You can either place credence in this poll or not. Your call.
    Agree the 6% but it should be way more with the media's non stop anti Brexit narrative


  • The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    You might have noticed there was something of a media campaign the other way during the election (and the 2ish years leading up to it), remind me again just how far the Conservatives ended up out of sight thanks to that?

    Are you really trying to excuse Corbyn's labour not being way ahead
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight
    In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.
    Grasping at straws - tell me when it is 15% plus
    You can either place credence in this poll or not. Your call.
    Agree the 6% but it should be way more with the media's non stop anti Brexit narrative
    I take it you don't read daily newspapers then.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,086
    edited February 2
    This piece confirms something I've been thinking about for a while.

    When Dave retired, his replacement should have been a Leaver except Boris.

    A Leave Prime Minister, for example, might have felt able to unilaterally guarantee EU citizens’ rights from the outset. Mrs May, feeling she had to prove her steel to Brexiters, refused and allowed Europe to think she was using them as bargaining chips.

    “This created a spiral of panicking and bad blood from the beginning,” reflects one Brussels watcher. It was Mrs May’s determination to show her Brexit credentials that convinced her to trigger Article 50 before the UK was ready, senior Leavers believe.


    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/time-running-out-brexiters/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370

    It explained it had to cough up for a non-cash charge of around £1.2 billion (€1.4 billion), due to a valuation adjustment on Deferred Tax Assets in the US.

    Hmm - 'cough up' for 'non-cash charge'? Does this journalist have the faintest clue what these words mean?
    We'll be paying down the depreciation and the deficit.

    Seriously though, modern algorithms take note of what journalists say so even the most ill informed can have an effect if his twitter account reaches wide enough (In the long run that means there is probably a market out there for overbought and oversold companies as journalists tend to hyperbole)
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,236
    Thanks to those thoughtful replies top my Brexit conundrum earlier...Nabavi, Oblitus et FF...

    RichardN...I think you are too intelligent for your own good which isn't necessarily always a good thing in itself because it probably does (quite rightly so) lend an air of superiority.

    But still there is a bottom line...if the numbers are not there for a hard Brexit or No Deal Brexit in the HoC...and those are the outcomes produced...then what happens?

    But presumably there is a deal out there that will pass the HoC....and that will probably mean that in likelihood nothing much will change...

    Anyhow I'm hunkered up with the Aussie Flu and going back to Netflix
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487
    Virtual Reality Wensleydale cheese factory?
  • Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight
    In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.
    Grasping at straws - tell me when it is 15% plus
    You can either place credence in this poll or not. Your call.
    Agree the 6% but it should be way more with the media's non stop anti Brexit narrative
    I take it you don't read daily newspapers then.
    Only read on line including the mail and guardian but mostly Sky and BBC
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370

    Virtual Reality Wensleydale cheese factory?
    Intern world.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 346

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight
    This poll also has 'Don't Know' beating Theresa May on the best PM question.
    Theresa May is doing her best to steal all of Don’t Know’s positions.
    Comment of the day.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,975

    This piece confirms something I've been thinking about for a while.

    When Dave retired, his replacement should have been a Leaver except Boris.

    A Leave Prime Minister, for example, might have felt able to unilaterally guarantee EU citizens’ rights from the outset. Mrs May, feeling she had to prove her steel to Brexiters, refused and allowed Europe to think she was using them as bargaining chips.

    “This created a spiral of panicking and bad blood from the beginning,” reflects one Brussels watcher. It was Mrs May’s determination to show her Brexit credentials that convinced her to trigger Article 50 before the UK was ready, senior Leavers believe.


    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/time-running-out-brexiters/

    Leavers were always going to cry betrayal. Like true communists, its not the ideology that is at fault, only the implementation.

    Of course, these senior leavers never complained at the time of any of these decisions.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 227



    Are you really trying to excuse Corbyn's labour not being way ahead

    Just pointing out that if you think this media coverage that May and the Tories are now having is such a major factor then why the hell was the election so close when the media had spent 2 years going at Corbyn and Labour even harder whilst also praising May and the Conservatives?

    Also, polls.... Corbyn... not always the best guide outside election time ;)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,780
    edited February 2
    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen (for a long while)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,265
    edited February 2
    tyson said:

    Thanks to those thoughtful replies top my Brexit conundrum earlier...Nabavi, Oblitus et FF...

    RichardN...I think you are too intelligent for your own good which isn't necessarily always a good thing in itself because it probably does (quite rightly so) lend an air of superiority.

    But still there is a bottom line...if the numbers are not there for a hard Brexit or No Deal Brexit in the HoC...and those are the outcomes produced...then what happens?

    But presumably there is a deal out there that will pass the HoC....and that will probably mean that in likelihood nothing much will change...

    Anyhow I'm hunkered up with the Aussie Flu and going back to Netflix

    For me, @Richard_Nabavi 's comment to you at 12:43 on the previous thread is a lucid account of where the EU argument should be, i.e. between a customs union a la Turque and Canada++. I doubt there is much appetite in the Commons for a no deal outcome, though that would be my preference, followed up by negotiations with the EU after we have left.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,707

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight
    This poll also has 'Don't Know' beating Theresa May on the best PM question.
    Theresa May is doing her best to steal all of Don’t Know’s positions.
    "Those who think that they know, but are mistaken , and act upon their mistake , are the most dangerous people to have in charge."
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen (for a long while)
    I think by UK you really mean England, and to a lesser extent Wales.
  • tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    Shouldnt be happening to a government in waiting......
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Slackbladder, I've said before that I think Corbyn's an anchor for both main parties. If he gets replaced by a non-far left moron, then that'll either immediately open up room for a third party (if his successor is poor) or, once said successor goes away and has a lacklustre replacement, there will then be room for a third party.

    As an aside, those wanting us to stay in the customs union are making an I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP party quite likely, and they could do well.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
  • stevef said:

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
    Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487

    stevef said:

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
    Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.
    He didn't enter office as a war criminal - he was only a war criminal for part of that decade!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,707

    stevef said:

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
    Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.
    Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
    Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.
    Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?
    Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006

    stevef said:

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
    Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.
    He didn't enter office as a war criminal - he was only a war criminal for part of that decade!
    Whereas Corbyn has been an IRA supporter throughout his career.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.

    You could say that the Lib Dems are winning here :D

    Mr. Eagles, if you had the same appreciation of classical history as Hans Gruber, you wouldn't hold such silly opinions.

    Good afternoon, Mr.D.
    Just for you:
    https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/opinion/f1/how-mercedes-and-ferrari-will-approach-f1-2018
  • Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
    Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.
    Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?
    I’ll dig out Philipe Sands piece on it.

    He knows his stuff.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,707
    stevef said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
    Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.
    Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?
    Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?
    He was not and he is not under any jurisdiction .
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487
    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
    Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.
    Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?
    Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?
    He was not and he is not under any jurisdiction .
    Did I miss his trial and acquittal?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,707
    edited February 2

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
    Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.
    Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?
    Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?
    He was not and he is not under any jurisdiction .
    Did I miss his trial and acquittal?
    Yes lol I think we all must have.Maybe it was on Jeremy Kyle one morning when I was at work.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    It looks like both successful councillors won on local issues, which is as it should be.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,063

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
    Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.
    Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?
    Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?
    He was not and he is not under any jurisdiction .
    Did I miss his trial and acquittal?
    My word you lot are easy to wind up.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. B, cheers for that. Was vaguely aware of the Mercedes' rake angle, but not Ferrari stretching their car philosophy.

    Of course, if they both screw it up, Red Bull will win the title, and maybe Alonso the Drivers'. :p
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,646
    edited February 2
    I'm no fan of JRM, but he has a point about contacts between officials and Charles Grant (see the three tweets previous to the one you quoted).
  • Anorak said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
    Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.
    Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?
    Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?
    He was not and he is not under any jurisdiction .
    Did I miss his trial and acquittal?
    My word you lot are easy to wind up.
    I know.

    Sunday’s thread is now going to be

    ‘If the war criminal Blair can win a majority in 2005 then so can peace loving Corbyn in 2022’
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    I'm most intrigued by this idea that ministers should accept responsibility. Mr Rees-Mogg's fellow travellers have been quite averse to this idea up to this point.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    tyson said:

    Thanks to those thoughtful replies top my Brexit conundrum earlier...Nabavi, Oblitus et FF...

    RichardN...I think you are too intelligent for your own good which isn't necessarily always a good thing in itself because it probably does (quite rightly so) lend an air of superiority.

    But still there is a bottom line...if the numbers are not there for a hard Brexit or No Deal Brexit in the HoC...and those are the outcomes produced...then what happens?

    But presumably there is a deal out there that will pass the HoC....and that will probably mean that in likelihood nothing much will change...

    Anyhow I'm hunkered up with the Aussie Flu and going back to Netflix

    The more I think about it the more I am convinced Canada and any pluses is unworkable. There's too much to negotiate. It's not just the FTA (which took actual Canada more than a decade to get from initial soundings to interim implementation). We have also have fisheries, citizenship, nuclear fuels, nuclear waste, normal waste, energy markets, airline operations and safety etc plus 800 third party agreements to sort out at the same time.

    The easiest negotiations are minimal change or minimal agreement. The first is more likely IMO and certainly better.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,877
    edited February 2
    For the first time the majority of the seven main German pollsters have the Social Democrats below 20%:

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. JS, not heard anything about the coalition talks for a few days. Is there a formal time limit for them to either agree or call fresh elections?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,063

    Anorak said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    Yorkcity said:

    stevef said:

    tyson said:

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight

    The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....

    My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
    Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.

    The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.

    Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
    I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.

    After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
    Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....
    Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.
    Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?
    Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?
    He was not and he is not under any jurisdiction .
    Did I miss his trial and acquittal?
    My word you lot are easy to wind up.
    I know.

    Sunday’s thread is now going to be

    ‘If the war criminal Blair can win a majority in 2005 then so can peace loving Corbyn in 2022’
    Whenever I see a Corbynite on twitter branding Blair a war criminal, I read it in the voice of General Melchett denouncing the "Flanders Pigeon Murderer".
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 227

    Mr. Slackbladder, I've said before that I think Corbyn's an anchor for both main parties. If he gets replaced by a non-far left moron, then that'll either immediately open up room for a third party (if his successor is poor) or, once said successor goes away and has a lacklustre replacement, there will then be room for a third party.

    As an aside, those wanting us to stay in the customs union are making an I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP party quite likely, and they could do well.

    The loss side of that from any Labour perspective is no other Labour candidate, especially if it is one from the right drains the Conservative vote (by being less scary) whilst keeping enough of the Labour vote to actually win.

    From the viewpoint of wanting Labour to win, even though I think you are right to an extent, there are soft edges to the Tory vote that can be worn away* and assuming nobody changes their minds in a pro Tory direction whilst their in government the next few years a small demographic shift of a few older voters going and a few new adults joining the voting pool.

    This is assuming everything else stays the same, I think Labour have a massive advantage come election campaign time.

    *Look at yourself mentioning the not another UKIP party. Ultimately I think Brexit is a much more difficult issue for the Tories and could impact their vote.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,845


    There are some prime nut job replies to that JRM 'thread'.
  • Anorak said:

    Whenever I see a Corbynite on twitter branding Blair a war criminal, I read it in the voice of General Melchett denouncing the "Flanders Pigeon Murderer".

    A while back I thought about doing a thread comparing Corbyn to Brigadier Sir Bernard Proudfoot Smith.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    Scott_P said:

    /twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466231022653445
    twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466538230304768

    He is indeed the polar opposite of Jezza, but with similar appeal.

    If it goes to a membership vote he will romp home. Members love a fanatic, and Tories love a posh'un.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892

    I'm no fan of JRM, but he has a point about contacts between officials and Charles Grant (see the three tweets previous to the one you quoted).
    It's a reasonable to question contacts between civil servants and think-tanks and discussion of unpublished papers. Jacob Rees-Mogg continues to misrepresent Grant's commentary, however. Grant's claim is that the Treasury has clear evidence that leaving the Customs Union is more damaging than any benefit from third party deals that are enabled by leaving the CU, which is the official policy. The Treasury is withholding this information because of the policy but believes it will need to come out later. Grant probably needs to have a clearer idea of an off the record briefing. I guess he isn't a journalist.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,877

    Mr. JS, not heard anything about the coalition talks for a few days. Is there a formal time limit for them to either agree or call fresh elections?

    Not sure, good questions.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:

    /twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466231022653445
    twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466538230304768

    He is indeed the polar opposite of Jezza, but with similar appeal.

    If it goes to a membership vote he will romp home. Members love a fanatic, and Tories love a posh'un.
    That came out in the focus group I read. Essentially if you are going to elect a caricature, you might as well go for the most authentically fake one - ie Rees-Mogg rather than Johnson.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,489
    edited February 2
    AndyJS said:

    For the first time the majority of the seven main German pollsters have the Social Democrats below 20%:

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    By only 51 v 46 % the Germans support a fourth term for Merkel.

    The markets think she is 90% likely to get one. That needs a vote of SPD members as to which:

    "Of respondents who themselves identified as members of the SPD, 52 percent said they saw a "grand coalition" government positively, while 46 percent said they viewed it negatively."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Hmm, just lost power for a few minutes. Same thing happened a few days ago. Bit odd.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,489
    AndyJS said:

    Mr. JS, not heard anything about the coalition talks for a few days. Is there a formal time limit for them to either agree or call fresh elections?

    Not sure, good questions.
    Deadline is Sunday but I think that's self imposed

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-02/merkel-bloc-spd-still-face-heavy-lifting-in-coalition-talks
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295

    Hmm, just lost power for a few minutes. Same thing happened a few days ago. Bit odd.

    Russian hacks?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Borough, it affected a few other houses, I think. Also, not much is interweb-connected (no connected kettle or anything like that).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,511
    Is there a single day now without JRM being in the headlines? :D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,511

    Hmm, just lost power for a few minutes. Same thing happened a few days ago. Bit odd.

    Perhaps it's the Russian's? :open_mouth:
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:

    /twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466231022653445
    twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466538230304768

    He is indeed the polar opposite of Jezza, but with similar appeal.

    If it goes to a membership vote he will romp home. Members love a fanatic, and Tories love a posh'un.
    That came out in the focus group I read. Essentially if you are going to elect a caricature, you might as well go for the most authentically fake one - ie Rees-Mogg rather than Johnson.
    But the Tories have a better way of electing a leader. Tory MPs choose the two candidates to be put to the members, filtering out the extremists who would most appeal to members but not voters. Anne Widdecome would have been Tory leader years ago if not for this.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295
    NEW THREAD
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 1,344
    edited February 2
    Slow day.

    But, unlike others, I do seize on the new YouGov figures. Removing Don’t Knows, we are now nearly at 54% Remain / 46% Leave.

    Yes, it’s one one poll, but the trend has been very consistent - with last month being the only anomaly.

    The reason this is important is two-fold.

    First, the design of the referendum was flawed. We simply did not know what Brexit meant, aside from formally leaving the EU. I find it obnoxious that people now seek to explain exactly what people voted for - it wasn’t on the ballot. As Brexit becomes clearer, a shift in sentiment is relevant.

    Second, the results were very close, given the profound constitutional upheaval at stake. One cannot just ignore the 48, or Scotland, or Northern Ireland.

    When feeling most optimistic I look on Brexit as a continued debate about our future relationship with Europe. What seems clear now is that WTO is off the table. It has lost the battle of ideas, and we are left with only a handful of options: An FTA outside the SM & CU (Canada); An FTA outside the SM and inside the/a CU (Turkey); EFTA/EEA (Norway); a new form of associate membership; and Remain with various opt-outs.

    I agree with Mr Nabavi that the PM has actually been clear in her preference for the first option. However, I also think her modus operandi is to play for time and let both debate and political reality resolve itself. It is possible that she has realised Canada+ would seriously dent the auto industry among others, and is now preparing for the Turkey option. That of course, renders Liam Fox redundant - and I do think that the idea of trading beyond Europe is THE ideological backbone of Brexit. I’d be amazed if JRM and the ERG signed off on it, or Boris for that matter.

    Personally, I think EEA/EFTA - or a near equivalent arrangement - during an extended transition period, is the right path, and I think the nature of our final resting place is still to play for. Once May’s deal is done, we should have another vote on whether to proceed per her deal or whether to stay in the EEA/EFTA. Not just Brexit - but the nature of Brexit - needs democratic legitimacy.
  • NEW THREAD

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,908

    Not so. She's been 100% clear that we won't be in the SIngle Market and Customs Union, and that within those parameters she wants as comprehensive a trade deal as we can get, with the aim of a deal closer than Canada's. How on earth can anyone claim that is unreasonable or unclear? Of course we can't say for sure how much of deal better than Canada's we can get, which causes uncertainty, but the blame for that uncertainty lies squarely with the EU, who for over a year have refused to discuss the future relationship. It's bonkers to blame Theresa May for that, but hopefully the lumbering EU bureaucracy will start discussing the main issue soon.

    It is a clear position.

    It is also unattainable in the time we have.

    The problem is simple.

    The EEA agreement is 41 pages long (and there aren't that many words on each page, some pages just list the parties to the agreement, and some are the table of contents). It is not a complicated agreement, because signatories are bound by a large portion of EU law.

    The Canada deal is longer, because it deals with things on a sector by sector basis, and each area is negotiated according to special interests. It's over 1,500 pages long, and the font size looks smaller to me.

    We can (and will) negotiate a bespoke agreement with the EU. It will likely be 3,000 pages long, because we want greater integration than Canada did, and with financial services included. We also need to come up with a system for managing compliance, as it is the individual countries that make up the EU (and not the EU itself) that is responsible for day-to-day implementation. This agreement will contain provisions that prevent the erection of NTBs, and these will limit the sovereignty of the British Parliament.

    The chances of this deal being agreed by the end of 2018 are zero. The chances of it being fully locked down by the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020 are close to zero. No major trade negotiation - especially where one party has 27 members, all of whom have effective vetoes - gets done this quickly if it is bespoke in nature.

    Before the EU vote, I said that the government should be explicit in what they wanted, and that would be a near immediate exit to time limited EEA. We would sign a five year agreement with the EU based on having all the rights and obligations as Norway. This would have a provision for a single one year extension.

    This was, and is, the best solution to the problem (with the proviso that we've now managed to lose almost two years).
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 42% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan

    12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
    75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes

    The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's

    Labour should be out of sight
    In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.
    Grasping at straws - tell me when it is 15% plus
    You can either place credence in this poll or not. Your call.
    Agree the 6% but it should be way more with the media's non stop anti Brexit narrative
    I take it you don't read daily newspapers then.
    Nor listen to the Today programme's distinctly pro-Brexit tone.
This discussion has been closed.