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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories look solidly back in third place in Scotland – the

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited February 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories look solidly back in third place in Scotland – the part of the UK which has seen the most seat turbulence

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Comments

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,283
    Hot battle for fourth.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641
    As support for independence weakens (down to 42% vs 50% for the Union in the latest poll), so will the Ulsterisation of Scottish politics. Unfortunately this will be to the detriment of the Scottish Tories, but the Union is more important.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    Fower!

    Loads of tactical voting in.FPTP elections in Scotland, I think.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Bonkers prices. Lay the favourite has always been the rule for this one. Lay the second favourite too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Sixth, like Scotland in the Six Nations.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,489
    Sandpit said:

    Bonkers prices. Lay the favourite has always been the rule for this one. Lay the second favourite too.
    You just have to remember that once upon a a time Hilary Ben was favourite for the Labour party, to succeed Corbyn.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,845
    RoyalBlue said:

    As support for independence weakens (down to 42% vs 50% for the Union in the latest poll), so will the Ulsterisation of Scottish politics. Unfortunately this will be to the detriment of the Scottish Tories, but the Union is more important.

    Weakens from what?
    That's 46%-54% Yes/No.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Sandpit said:

    Bonkers prices. Lay the favourite has always been the rule for this one. Lay the second favourite too.
    You just have to remember that once upon a a time Hilary Ben was favourite for the Labour party, to succeed Corbyn.
    Indeed so. There’s huge value in both next party leader markets for those who can identify the runners, and I’m not sure JRM will run. He’s more likely to back Gove or Johnson.

    JRM 6
    Johnson 8.8
    Gove 14
    Rudd 16
    Hunt 16
    21 bar those five.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    So yet more sizable changes expected next time then, if the Tories drop back and Labour recover even more. Such a capricious electorate!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487
    No sign of a Richard Leonard surge in the SLAB numbers.

    However, I am happier seeing potential Tory losses to the SNP than Labour gains from the Nats.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 399
    The Tories would have to be completely stupid to put in Rees Mogg. It would completely lose the vote of us on the soft left who are voting Tory because we are repulsed by Corbyn. We can tolerate social justice minded conservatives, but we won't vote for a 19th Century reactionary. Meanwhile a younger, more forward-looking type would win them the next election.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,668
    Elliot said:

    The Tories would have to be completely stupid to put in Rees Mogg. It would completely lose the vote of us on the soft left who are voting Tory because we are repulsed by Corbyn. We can tolerate social justice minded conservatives, but we won't vote for a 19th Century reactionary. Meanwhile a younger, more forward-looking type would win them the next election.

    It's not going to happen.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    Elliot said:

    The Tories would have to be completely stupid to put in Rees Mogg. It would completely lose the vote of us on the soft left who are voting Tory because we are repulsed by Corbyn. We can tolerate social justice minded conservatives, but we won't vote for a 19th Century reactionary. Meanwhile a younger, more forward-looking type would win them the next election.

    I think that JRM is too right wing for most Conservatives.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,523
    Sean_F said:

    Elliot said:

    The Tories would have to be completely stupid to put in Rees Mogg. It would completely lose the vote of us on the soft left who are voting Tory because we are repulsed by Corbyn. We can tolerate social justice minded conservatives, but we won't vote for a 19th Century reactionary. Meanwhile a younger, more forward-looking type would win them the next election.

    I think that JRM is too right wing for most Conservatives.
    He might even be too right wing for most party members.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116
    edited February 3
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Bonkers prices. Lay the favourite has always been the rule for this one. Lay the second favourite too.
    You just have to remember that once upon a a time Hilary Ben was favourite for the Labour party, to succeed Corbyn.
    Indeed so. There’s huge value in both next party leader markets for those who can identify the runners, and I’m not sure JRM will run. He’s more likely to back Gove or Johnson.

    JRM 6
    Johnson 8.8
    Gove 14
    Rudd 16
    Hunt 16
    21 bar those five.
    As well as JRM, I'm still staggered by the presence of Rudd in that list. Just don't see her support in the PCP or amongst members as anywhere near strong enough.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    The unfairnesss of the voting system in a single emboldened sentence.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,086
    edited February 3
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Bonkers prices. Lay the favourite has always been the rule for this one. Lay the second favourite too.
    You just have to remember that once upon a a time Hilary Ben was favourite for the Labour party, to succeed Corbyn.
    Indeed so. There’s huge value in both next party leader markets for those who can identify the runners, and I’m not sure JRM will run. He’s more likely to back Gove or Johnson.

    JRM 6
    Johnson 8.8
    Gove 14
    Rudd 16
    Hunt 16
    21 bar those five.
    As well as JRM, I'm still staggered by the presence of Rudd in that list. Just don't see her support in the PCP or amongst members as anywhere near strong enough.
    I think her performance in the debate and given her personal circumstances might explain it.

    She certainly put in a robust performance, quite the contrast to the yellow bellied Mrs May.

    Whether you like the debates or not, they are here to stay, and no leader can chicken out of them without looking like a loser and shedding votes at the ballot box.
  • Ireland, bloody hell.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116
    'Jammy Sexton'
  • Speechless, and the cherry on the parfait, comparing them to the suffragettes.

    The protesters who disrupted Jacob Rees-Mogg were right and deserve our support.

    https://www.thecanary.co/opinion/2018/02/03/protesters-disrupted-jacob-rees-mogg-right-deserve-support-opinion/
  • On Scottish seat spreads, I'd be selling the SNP.

    (At one pound per seat)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116

    Speechless, and the cherry on the parfait, comparing them to the suffragettes.

    The protesters who disrupted Jacob Rees-Mogg were right and deserve our support.

    https://www.thecanary.co/opinion/2018/02/03/protesters-disrupted-jacob-rees-mogg-right-deserve-support-opinion/

    Quite, quite, barking.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    rkrkrk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Elliot said:

    The Tories would have to be completely stupid to put in Rees Mogg. It would completely lose the vote of us on the soft left who are voting Tory because we are repulsed by Corbyn. We can tolerate social justice minded conservatives, but we won't vote for a 19th Century reactionary. Meanwhile a younger, more forward-looking type would win them the next election.

    I think that JRM is too right wing for most Conservatives.
    He might even be too right wing for most party members.
    I think there would be a great deal of sympathy for his views, but also a recognition that they would alienate many voters.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Ireland, bloody hell.

    Well that was an exciting finish to an otherwise boring match.

    Oh, and by the way guess who had breakfast with a certain Dutch europop band this morning? :D
  • Mortimer said:

    Speechless, and the cherry on the parfait, comparing them to the suffragettes.

    The protesters who disrupted Jacob Rees-Mogg were right and deserve our support.

    https://www.thecanary.co/opinion/2018/02/03/protesters-disrupted-jacob-rees-mogg-right-deserve-support-opinion/

    Quite, quite, barking.
    If I have the energy I might do a thread comparing JRM/Steve Baker to these loons.

    Their denigration of The Treasury sounds like the wild conspiracies of the Corbynites on Jewish Banking.
  • Sandpit said:

    Ireland, bloody hell.

    Well that was an exciting finish to an otherwise boring match.

    Oh, and by the way guess who had breakfast with a certain Dutch europop band this morning? :D
    How were Ray & Anita?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,668

    Mortimer said:

    Speechless, and the cherry on the parfait, comparing them to the suffragettes.

    The protesters who disrupted Jacob Rees-Mogg were right and deserve our support.

    https://www.thecanary.co/opinion/2018/02/03/protesters-disrupted-jacob-rees-mogg-right-deserve-support-opinion/

    Quite, quite, barking.
    If I have the energy I might do a thread comparing JRM/Steve Baker to these loons.

    Their denigration of The Treasury sounds like the wild conspiracies of the Corbynites on Jewish Banking.
    It really doesn't you know.

    And it's a shame that you would stoop to compare it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,714
    edited February 3
    Did JRM blow it today, or are things in the Tory party at a state where slagging off the treasury wins votes?
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 19
    France looked gutted losing at the last minute to Ireland.
    "Oh, mon dieu. Quelle honte. Ca ne fait rien"
    Google translation: "Oh, dear. What a shame. Never mind."
  • Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speechless, and the cherry on the parfait, comparing them to the suffragettes.

    The protesters who disrupted Jacob Rees-Mogg were right and deserve our support.

    https://www.thecanary.co/opinion/2018/02/03/protesters-disrupted-jacob-rees-mogg-right-deserve-support-opinion/

    Quite, quite, barking.
    If I have the energy I might do a thread comparing JRM/Steve Baker to these loons.

    Their denigration of The Treasury sounds like the wild conspiracies of the Corbynites on Jewish Banking.
    It really doesn't you know.

    And it's a shame that you would stoop to compare it.
    It does.

    The gist of it is an all powerful establishment will lie/do their best to retain the status quo because it will ruin their interests.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    edited February 3
    Jonathan said:

    Did JRM blow it today, or are things in the Tory party at a state where slagging off the treasury wins votes?

    The 5 year plan is under threat from the wreckers, counter-revolutionaries and Kulaks.
  • Jonathan said:

    Did JRM blow it today, or are things in the Tory party at a state where slagging off the treasury wins votes?

    JRM blew it the day when he said he took his whip from Rome because of his social conservative* views.

    *Pre-Plantagenet conservative views.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370
    Nice building that "One Angel Square"..
  • trawltrawl Posts: 81
    Calling Mortimer - fellow Baggies fan aren’t you?
    The club did Cyrille proud today, really well organised and presented.
    (Shame about the team of course but there it is)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,668

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speechless, and the cherry on the parfait, comparing them to the suffragettes.

    The protesters who disrupted Jacob Rees-Mogg were right and deserve our support.

    https://www.thecanary.co/opinion/2018/02/03/protesters-disrupted-jacob-rees-mogg-right-deserve-support-opinion/

    Quite, quite, barking.
    If I have the energy I might do a thread comparing JRM/Steve Baker to these loons.

    Their denigration of The Treasury sounds like the wild conspiracies of the Corbynites on Jewish Banking.
    It really doesn't you know.

    And it's a shame that you would stoop to compare it.
    It does.

    The gist of it is an all powerful establishment will lie/do their best to retain the status quo because it will ruin their interests.
    And there is a great difference between "the king's advisers" doing bad things and condemning a race/religious group based on nothing more than whether they are descended from one of Abraham's sons or the other.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Nice building that "One Angel Square"..

    Walk past it most week days
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speechless, and the cherry on the parfait, comparing them to the suffragettes.

    The protesters who disrupted Jacob Rees-Mogg were right and deserve our support.

    https://www.thecanary.co/opinion/2018/02/03/protesters-disrupted-jacob-rees-mogg-right-deserve-support-opinion/

    Quite, quite, barking.
    If I have the energy I might do a thread comparing JRM/Steve Baker to these loons.

    Their denigration of The Treasury sounds like the wild conspiracies of the Corbynites on Jewish Banking.
    It really doesn't you know.

    And it's a shame that you would stoop to compare it.
    It does.

    The gist of it is an all powerful establishment will lie/do their best to retain the status quo because it will ruin their interests.
    And there is a great difference between "the king's advisers" doing bad things and condemning a race/religious group based on nothing more than whether they are descended from one of Abraham's sons or the other.
    In your opinion.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Sandpit said:

    Ireland, bloody hell.

    Well that was an exciting finish to an otherwise boring match.

    Oh, and by the way guess who had breakfast with a certain Dutch europop band this morning? :D
    How were Ray & Anita?
    Most bands I assume go for room service the morning after a gig, not these guys. They came and sat in the middle of the hotel restaurant, said hi to everyone and did loads of shaking hands and posing for photos. Awesome people!

    Sadly the singer wasn’t Anita, but the new one they’ve got looks and sounds rather similar. I think she only does the occasional one now. Fantastic gig though, ears still ringing...
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 332
    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.
  • Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    History has shown the favourite this far out seldom becomes Tory leader.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    Most of us have him with a red number next to him on Betfair, though Britain to exit the EU by the prescribed exit date is a better use of my cash I think right now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719

    History has shown the favourite this far out seldom becomes Tory leader.

    We don't yet know how far out we are.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,489
    Pulpstar said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    Most of us have him with a red number next to him on Betfair, though Britain to exit the EU by the prescribed exit date is a better use of my cash I think right now.
    red or green on that one?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,523

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    On the contrary we are all very aware of the odds - that’s why we are discussing him.
    And indeed - the odds are why so many of us are laying him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Pulpstar said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    Most of us have him with a red number next to him on Betfair, though Britain to exit the EU by the prescribed exit date is a better use of my cash I think right now.
    Yup. Hammond, Hunt and Gove are the three green ones in my book, lay the favourites, and lay ineligible candidates (Ruthie was 8 point something at one point despite not being an MP, David Miliband ditto on the Labour side).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    History has shown the favourite this far out seldom becomes Tory leader.
    Assuming the next leadership election is about 18 months away, which seems reasonable although it could be wrong, the last time the favourite 18 months out was successful was Eden in 1955.

    Indeed, the last time the favourite even three months prior was the winner was Heath in 1965, and the label of 'favourite' was a marginal call between him and Maudling.

    I still have a very strong feeling that the next leader will be somebody totally unexpected. It is not impossible we would have a new Foreign Secretary by then and it is also not impossible that such a person could be outside the Cabinet or at least very junior.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    Pulpstar said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    Most of us have him with a red number next to him on Betfair, though Britain to exit the EU by the prescribed exit date is a better use of my cash I think right now.
    I am green on the Moggster. Nailed on if he makes the final 2, and wise for the MPs to put him on. @Archer101au is right. Brexit requires a true believer.
  • ydoethur said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    History has shown the favourite this far out seldom becomes Tory leader.
    Assuming the next leadership election is about 18 months away, which seems reasonable although it could be wrong, the last time the favourite 18 months out was successful was Eden in 1955.

    Indeed, the last time the favourite even three months prior was the winner was Heath in 1965, and the label of 'favourite' was a marginal call between him and Maudling.

    I still have a very strong feeling that the next leader will be somebody totally unexpected. It is not impossible we would have a new Foreign Secretary by then and it is also not impossible that such a person could be outside the Cabinet or at least very junior.
    I keep on meaning to do a thread asking 'Who is the Lord Halifax de nos jours?'

    Still find it astonishing he was the favourite in 1940
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,489
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    Most of us have him with a red number next to him on Betfair, though Britain to exit the EU by the prescribed exit date is a better use of my cash I think right now.
    Yup. Hammond, Hunt and Gove are the three green ones in my book, lay the favourites, and lay ineligible candidates (Ruthie was 8 point something at one point despite not being an MP, David Miliband ditto on the Labour side).
    Honestly David M's price has been so bonkers you'd think that the Indian spot fixers were washing their cash through it
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    History has shown the favourite this far out seldom becomes Tory leader.
    Assuming the next leadership election is about 18 months away, which seems reasonable although it could be wrong, the last time the favourite 18 months out was successful was Eden in 1955.

    Indeed, the last time the favourite even three months prior was the winner was Heath in 1965, and the label of 'favourite' was a marginal call between him and Maudling.

    I still have a very strong feeling that the next leader will be somebody totally unexpected. It is not impossible we would have a new Foreign Secretary by then and it is also not impossible that such a person could be outside the Cabinet or at least very junior.
    I keep on meaning to do a thread asking 'Who is the Lord Halifax de nos jours?'

    Still find it astonishing he was the favourite in 1940
    He thought his time had not yet come.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    That Tory members are utterly unrepresentative and feel legitimised by Corbyn's 'success' to look for a conviction right winger of their own is not a good reason.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Speechless, and the cherry on the parfait, comparing them to the suffragettes.

    The protesters who disrupted Jacob Rees-Mogg were right and deserve our support.

    https://www.thecanary.co/opinion/2018/02/03/protesters-disrupted-jacob-rees-mogg-right-deserve-support-opinion/

    Quite, quite, barking.
    If I have the energy I might do a thread comparing JRM/Steve Baker to these loons.

    Their denigration of The Treasury sounds like the wild conspiracies of the Corbynites on Jewish Banking.
    It really doesn't you know.

    And it's a shame that you would stoop to compare it.
    It does.

    The gist of it is an all powerful establishment will lie/do their best to retain the status quo because it will ruin their interests.
    That point of view is good deal more mainstream, on both left and right, than anti-Semitic conspiracy theories.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    i think he is too right wing to do well, but then I thought Corbyn was too left wing to do well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    Most of us have him with a red number next to him on Betfair, though Britain to exit the EU by the prescribed exit date is a better use of my cash I think right now.
    Yup. Hammond, Hunt and Gove are the three green ones in my book, lay the favourites, and lay ineligible candidates (Ruthie was 8 point something at one point despite not being an MP, David Miliband ditto on the Labour side).
    Honestly David M's price has been so bonkers you'd think that the Indian spot fixers were washing their cash through it
    LOL. He’s still something like 6th fav but out to 25 now. Around the same price is Sadiq Khan, who is a little more plausible but also not an MP.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    Sean_F said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    i think he is too right wing to do well, but then I thought Corbyn was too left wing to do well.
    If Labour had the Tory method of electing a leader whereby all but the last two are filtered out by MPs, Corbyn would not have become leader. Mogg is not the person most likely to become Tory leader because although he is popular with members, he has insufficient support with Tory MPs and they will filer him out of the final two.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    stevef said:

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    i think he is too right wing to do well, but then I thought Corbyn was too left wing to do well.
    If Labour had the Tory method of electing a leader whereby all but the last two are filtered out by MPs, Corbyn would not have become leader. Mogg is not the person most likely to become Tory leader because although he is popular with members, he has insufficient support with Tory MPs and they will filer him out of the final two.
    And Corbyn did not do well. He lost a third election for Labour in a row.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    stevef said:

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    i think he is too right wing to do well, but then I thought Corbyn was too left wing to do well.
    If Labour had the Tory method of electing a leader whereby all but the last two are filtered out by MPs, Corbyn would not have become leader. Mogg is not the person most likely to become Tory leader because although he is popular with members, he has insufficient support with Tory MPs and they will filer him out of the final two.
    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    edited February 3
    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    i think he is too right wing to do well, but then I thought Corbyn was too left wing to do well.
    If Labour had the Tory method of electing a leader whereby all but the last two are filtered out by MPs, Corbyn would not have become leader. Mogg is not the person most likely to become Tory leader because although he is popular with members, he has insufficient support with Tory MPs and they will filer him out of the final two.
    And Corbyn did not do well. He lost a third election for Labour in a row.
    He gained 30 seats. Even after his excellent campaign, most of us were expecting a 1979 type result. At the outset we were expecting a 1983 type result.
  • IanB2 said:


    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.

    Nah, we Tories use a quasi-AV system to elect our leader.

    As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    IanB2 said:


    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.

    Nah, we Tories use a quasi-AV system to elect our leader.

    As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
    Not this one again Mr Eagles. Multiple elimination rounds on separate days are nothing close to AV, and the last round in the contest even has a different electorate - you and I get to vote in that one!
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    IanB2 said:

    stevef said:

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    i think he is too right wing to do well, but then I thought Corbyn was too left wing to do well.
    If Labour had the Tory method of electing a leader whereby all but the last two are filtered out by MPs, Corbyn would not have become leader. Mogg is not the person most likely to become Tory leader because although he is popular with members, he has insufficient support with Tory MPs and they will filer him out of the final two.
    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.
    Yes but there is bound to be two candidates who will have enough support among MPs to nudge Mogg out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,086
    edited February 3
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:


    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.

    Nah, we Tories use a quasi-AV system to elect our leader.

    As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
    Not this one again Mr Eagles. Multiple elimination rounds on separate days are nothing close to AV, and the last round in the contest even has a different electorate - you and I get to vote in that one!
    That's why I said quasi-AV.

    Like AV, in each round of voting the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated until there are two left, and the winner is the one that gets 50% plus of the vote.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    Marco Rubio was favourite for the Republican nomination in 2016 after coming third in Iowa.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370
    Something I've thought about with Northamptonshire council's woes - why on earth is there the whole district/county split council malarkey.

    Switch it all to a single tier !
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    History has shown the favourite this far out seldom becomes Tory leader.
    Assuming the next leadership election is about 18 months away, which seems reasonable although it could be wrong, the last time the favourite 18 months out was successful was Eden in 1955.

    Indeed, the last time the favourite even three months prior was the winner was Heath in 1965, and the label of 'favourite' was a marginal call between him and Maudling.

    I still have a very strong feeling that the next leader will be somebody totally unexpected. It is not impossible we would have a new Foreign Secretary by then and it is also not impossible that such a person could be outside the Cabinet or at least very junior.
    I keep on meaning to do a thread asking 'Who is the Lord Halifax de nos jours?'

    Still find it astonishing he was the favourite in 1940
    He thought his time had not yet come.
    Halifax was perhaps needed 25 years earlier as Foreign Sec. He was by disposition a conflict resolver, as with his time as Viceroy of India. He was not alone in failing to recognise the evil of Nazism. His problem (like the generals) was to prepare for the last war, not the forthcoming one.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    stevef said:

    IanB2 said:

    stevef said:

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    i think he is too right wing to do well, but then I thought Corbyn was too left wing to do well.
    If Labour had the Tory method of electing a leader whereby all but the last two are filtered out by MPs, Corbyn would not have become leader. Mogg is not the person most likely to become Tory leader because although he is popular with members, he has insufficient support with Tory MPs and they will filer him out of the final two.
    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.
    Yes but there is bound to be two candidates who will have enough support among MPs to nudge Mogg out.
    Not certain at all...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    Pulpstar said:

    Something I've thought about with Northamptonshire council's woes - why on earth is there the whole district/county split council malarkey.

    Switch it all to a single tier !

    After Northants, who is next to go to the wall?

    May be a difficult set of Locals in May if more do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    Pulpstar said:

    Something I've thought about with Northamptonshire council's woes - why on earth is there the whole district/county split council malarkey.

    Switch it all to a single tier !

    Can't say, living in what's been a unitary for near a decade now, that it hurts anything, and it is claimed to have enabled a great deal of saving and necessary coordination at the time of the austerity crisis.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:


    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.

    Nah, we Tories use a quasi-AV system to elect our leader.

    As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
    Not this one again Mr Eagles. Multiple elimination rounds on separate days are nothing close to AV, and the last round in the contest even has a different electorate - you and I get to vote in that one!
    That's why I said quasi-AV.

    Like AV, in each round of voting the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated until there are two left, and the winner is the one that gets 50% plus of the vote.
    So it’s like AV except for a bunch of reasons that it isn’t. Even Nick Clegg called AV a “miserable little compromise”, that was being far too nice about it. ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    Sean_F said:

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    i think he is too right wing to do well, but then I thought Corbyn was too left wing to do well.
    If Labour had the Tory method of electing a leader whereby all but the last two are filtered out by MPs, Corbyn would not have become leader. Mogg is not the person most likely to become Tory leader because although he is popular with members, he has insufficient support with Tory MPs and they will filer him out of the final two.
    And Corbyn did not do well. He lost a third election for Labour in a row.
    He gained 30 seats. Even after his excellent campaign, most of us were expecting a 1979 type result. At the outset we were expecting a 1983 type result.
    Yes, his defying of expectation cannot be ignored. It was still a ways off the top, though he may make it next time, but the improvement was notable.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,033

    IanB2 said:


    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.

    Nah, we Tories use a quasi-AV system to elect our leader.

    As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
    It weeds out the really desirable candidate in the first round - the person who is everyone's second choice but nobody's first choice.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 279
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:


    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.

    Nah, we Tories use a quasi-AV system to elect our leader.

    As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
    Not this one again Mr Eagles. Multiple elimination rounds on separate days are nothing close to AV, and the last round in the contest even has a different electorate - you and I get to vote in that one!
    That's why I said quasi-AV.

    Like AV, in each round of voting the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated until there are two left, and the winner is the one that gets 50% plus of the vote.
    So it’s like AV except for a bunch of reasons that it isn’t. Even Nick Clegg called AV a “miserable little compromise”, that was being far too nice about it. ;)
    AV is a good choice for elections to a singular office like party leader or president. Its as a means to elect a parliament that its pretty rubbish.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,546
    edited February 3
    Foxy said:

    stevef said:

    IanB2 said:

    stevef said:

    Sean_F said:

    Interesting that for a betting site, so many are prepared to completely ignore the odds when it comes to JRM. He is favourite to be next Tory leader because he is the person most likely to be next Tory leader. It really comes down to IF he stands.

    If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.

    He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.

    Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.

    i think he is too right wing to do well, but then I thought Corbyn was too left wing to do well.
    If Labour had the Tory method of electing a leader whereby all but the last two are filtered out by MPs, Corbyn would not have become leader. Mogg is not the person most likely to become Tory leader because although he is popular with members, he has insufficient support with Tory MPs and they will filer him out of the final two.
    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.
    Yes but there is bound to be two candidates who will have enough support among MPs to nudge Mogg out.
    Not certain at all...
    I think Tory MPS will vote for the candidate most likely to help them keep their seats. That's not Rees-Mogg. It's Boris.

    Boris has the same flaws and appeal as Trump. Narcissistic and unreliable but cunning with an ability to get publicity and cut through with soundbites and slogans. Tory MPs will do what the Republican Party have done with Trump. Hold their noses and support Boris.

    They'll drain support from Rees-Mogg. Those MPS who don't support Boris are more likely to support a Leaver. So members will have a choice between Boris and a Leaver.
    Corbyn v. Johnson will be similar to Sanders v. Trump. Hard to call. But it won't be Rees-Mogg.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    William_H said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:


    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.

    Nah, we Tories use a quasi-AV system to elect our leader.

    As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
    Not this one again Mr Eagles. Multiple elimination rounds on separate days are nothing close to AV, and the last round in the contest even has a different electorate - you and I get to vote in that one!
    That's why I said quasi-AV.

    Like AV, in each round of voting the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated until there are two left, and the winner is the one that gets 50% plus of the vote.
    So it’s like AV except for a bunch of reasons that it isn’t. Even Nick Clegg called AV a “miserable little compromise”, that was being far too nice about it. ;)
    AV is a good choice for elections to a singular office like party leader or president. Its as a means to elect a parliament that its pretty rubbish.
    STV is better for parliaments...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,690

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:


    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.

    Nah, we Tories use a quasi-AV system to elect our leader.

    As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
    Not this one again Mr Eagles. Multiple elimination rounds on separate days are nothing close to AV, and the last round in the contest even has a different electorate - you and I get to vote in that one!
    That's why I said quasi-AV.

    Like AV, in each round of voting the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated until there are two left, and the winner is the one that gets 50% plus of the vote.
    It's not AV, it's called an "exhaustive ballot"! (How many times have we been through this before??)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,304
    Pulpstar said:

    Something I've thought about with Northamptonshire council's woes - why on earth is there the whole district/county split council malarkey.

    Switch it all to a single tier !

    The great thing the Tories have got in Northants is a great line up of MPs

    Hollobone
    Heaton-Harris
    Bone
    Leadsom

    plus Louise Mensch who used to be one
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,546
    Foxy said:

    William_H said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:


    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.

    Nah, we Tories use a quasi-AV system to elect our leader.

    As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
    Not this one again Mr Eagles. Multiple elimination rounds on separate days are nothing close to AV, and the last round in the contest even has a different electorate - you and I get to vote in that one!
    That's why I said quasi-AV.

    Like AV, in each round of voting the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated until there are two left, and the winner is the one that gets 50% plus of the vote.
    So it’s like AV except for a bunch of reasons that it isn’t. Even Nick Clegg called AV a “miserable little compromise”, that was being far too nice about it. ;)
    AV is a good choice for elections to a singular office like party leader or president. Its as a means to elect a parliament that its pretty rubbish.
    STV is better for parliaments...
    AV is STV for single member constituencies.

    There is a trade off between number of members to be elected and proportionality. The larger the number of members the more proportional but the more unwieldy the voting slip and the wider the geographical spread. I favour two member constituencies in rural seats (otherwise the geography is too spread) and four or five members in more urban areas. I don't know whether that arrangement would more favour Labour or Conservative.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    edited February 3

    I keep on meaning to do a thread asking 'Who is the Lord Halifax de nos jours?'

    Still find it astonishing he was the favourite in 1940

    Less surprising perhaps when you remember (a) Churchill had come back into cabinet less than a year before after a decade in exile imposed by his hysteria, incompetence and rebelliousness, particularly when you factor in his father had suffered a similar (in his case, terminal) breakdown and (b) that Halifax was personally popular - indeed, he was a very strange omission from Guilty Men, despite being one of the guiltiest of them, for that reason.

    At the same time as a peer, a Catholic and an appeaser he would have been a strange and unwise choice and it is to his very great credit I think that he recognised that and told Chamberlain to recommend Churchill.

    The one perhaps to watch if there is a sudden vacancy at the Foreign Office is Alan Duncan. He could be promoted to fill the post and take it over quickly although it would unbalance the Leave/Remain cohort in the cabinet.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719

    Pulpstar said:

    Something I've thought about with Northamptonshire council's woes - why on earth is there the whole district/county split council malarkey.

    Switch it all to a single tier !

    The great thing the Tories have got in Northants is a great line up of MPs

    Hollobone
    Heaton-Harris
    Bone
    Leadsom

    plus Louise Mensch who used to be one
    Lewer is another Brexiteer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,300
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:


    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.

    Nah, we Tories use a quasi-AV system to elect our leader.

    As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
    Not this one again Mr Eagles. Multiple elimination rounds on separate days are nothing close to AV, and the last round in the contest even has a different electorate - you and I get to vote in that one!
    That's why I said quasi-AV.

    Like AV, in each round of voting the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated until there are two left, and the winner is the one that gets 50% plus of the vote.
    So it’s like AV except for a bunch of reasons that it isn’t. Even Nick Clegg called AV a “miserable little compromise”, that was being far too nice about it. ;)
    It's multi-stage FPTP. :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,690
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:


    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.

    Nah, we Tories use a quasi-AV system to elect our leader.

    As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
    Not this one again Mr Eagles. Multiple elimination rounds on separate days are nothing close to AV, and the last round in the contest even has a different electorate - you and I get to vote in that one!
    That's why I said quasi-AV.

    Like AV, in each round of voting the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated until there are two left, and the winner is the one that gets 50% plus of the vote.
    So it’s like AV except for a bunch of reasons that it isn’t. Even Nick Clegg called AV a “miserable little compromise”, that was being far too nice about it. ;)
    It's multi-stage FPTP. :D
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exhaustive_ballot

  • Pulpstar said:

    Something I've thought about with Northamptonshire council's woes - why on earth is there the whole district/county split council malarkey.

    Switch it all to a single tier !

    I'm not sure which would make the most sense as unitary councils - Lincolnshire, Warwickshire and Northamptonshire which are 'whole' or Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire and Leicestershire which have their big city already removed from the county council.

    But alternatively in your part of the world a Chesterfield unitary council combining Chesterfield, Bolsover and North-East Derbyshire district councils would probably be a good idea.
  • ydoethur said:

    I keep on meaning to do a thread asking 'Who is the Lord Halifax de nos jours?'

    Still find it astonishing he was the favourite in 1940

    Less surprising perhaps when you remember (a) Churchill had come back into cabinet less than a year before after a decade in exile imposed by his hysteria, incompetence and rebelliousness, particularly when you factor in his father had suffered a similar (in his case, terminal) breakdown and (b) that Halifax was personally popular - indeed, he was a very strange omission from Guilty Men, despite being one of the guiltiest of them, for that reason.

    At the same time as a peer, a Catholic and an appeaser he would have been a strange and unwise choice and it is to his very great credit I think that he recognised that and told Chamberlain to recommend Churchill.

    The one perhaps to watch if there is a sudden vacancy at the Foreign Office is Alan Duncan. He could be promoted to fill the post and take it over quickly although it would unbalance the Leave/Remain cohort in the cabinet.
    Who had been favourite to succeed Chamberlain pre WWII ?

    Antony Eden ? Kingsley Wood ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,690

    Pulpstar said:

    Something I've thought about with Northamptonshire council's woes - why on earth is there the whole district/county split council malarkey.

    Switch it all to a single tier !

    I'm not sure which would make the most sense as unitary councils - Lincolnshire, Warwickshire and Northamptonshire which are 'whole' or Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire and Leicestershire which have their big city already removed from the county council.

    But alternatively in your part of the world a Chesterfield unitary council combining Chesterfield, Bolsover and North-East Derbyshire district councils would probably be a good idea.
    Warwickshire has already had its two big cities removed - Brum and Coventry!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010

    Pulpstar said:

    Something I've thought about with Northamptonshire council's woes - why on earth is there the whole district/county split council malarkey.

    Switch it all to a single tier !

    The great thing the Tories have got in Northants is a great line up of MPs

    Hollobone
    Heaton-Harris
    Bone
    Leadsom

    plus Louise Mensch who used to be one
    Northamptonshire has shifted heavily rightwards since the early 2000's.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Something I've thought about with Northamptonshire council's woes - why on earth is there the whole district/county split council malarkey.

    Switch it all to a single tier !

    I'm not sure which would make the most sense as unitary councils - Lincolnshire, Warwickshire and Northamptonshire which are 'whole' or Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire and Leicestershire which have their big city already removed from the county council.

    But alternatively in your part of the world a Chesterfield unitary council combining Chesterfield, Bolsover and North-East Derbyshire district councils would probably be a good idea.
    Warwickshire has already had its two big cities removed - Brum and Coventry!
    Hence its strange truncated shape.
  • ydoethur said:

    I keep on meaning to do a thread asking 'Who is the Lord Halifax de nos jours?'

    Still find it astonishing he was the favourite in 1940

    Less surprising perhaps when you remember (a) Churchill had come back into cabinet less than a year before after a decade in exile imposed by his hysteria, incompetence and rebelliousness, particularly when you factor in his father had suffered a similar (in his case, terminal) breakdown and (b) that Halifax was personally popular - indeed, he was a very strange omission from Guilty Men, despite being one of the guiltiest of them, for that reason.

    At the same time as a peer, a Catholic and an appeaser he would have been a strange and unwise choice and it is to his very great credit I think that he recognised that and told Chamberlain to recommend Churchill.

    The one perhaps to watch if there is a sudden vacancy at the Foreign Office is Alan Duncan. He could be promoted to fill the post and take it over quickly although it would unbalance the Leave/Remain cohort in the cabinet.
    Who had been favourite to succeed Chamberlain pre WWII ?

    Antony Eden ? Kingsley Wood ?
    Samuel Hoare
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    William_H said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:


    The Tory MPs may have more candidates who should be filtered out of the top two than they can manage.

    Nah, we Tories use a quasi-AV system to elect our leader.

    As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
    Not this one again Mr Eagles. Multiple elimination rounds on separate days are nothing close to AV, and the last round in the contest even has a different electorate - you and I get to vote in that one!
    That's why I said quasi-AV.

    Like AV, in each round of voting the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated until there are two left, and the winner is the one that gets 50% plus of the vote.
    So it’s like AV except for a bunch of reasons that it isn’t. Even Nick Clegg called AV a “miserable little compromise”, that was being far too nice about it. ;)
    AV is a good choice for elections to a singular office like party leader or president. Its as a means to elect a parliament that its pretty rubbish.
    STV is better for parliaments...
    AV is STV for single member constituencies.

    There is a trade off between number of members to be elected and proportionality. The larger the number of members the more proportional but the more unwieldy the voting slip and the wider the geographical spread. I favour two member constituencies in rural seats (otherwise the geography is too spread) and four or five members in more urban areas. I don't know whether that arrangement would more favour Labour or Conservative.
    The disproportionality would arise mostly from the rural seats, in your scenario. Where the Tories have say 60% of the vote, it would favour them as, with transfers, they would probably take both seats. Less than this, they would only get one seat, although that would be close to proportional anyhow.

    STV works best with seats of three members plus.

    A big advantage compared to our current system is that the boundaries can be drawn based on 'sensible' areas - whole towns or cities (sub-divisions of the biggest cities) or sub-divisions of counties, and then the number of MPs aligned with the electorate. Future boundary reviews would mostly be changing the number of MPs , where needed, rather than devising a whole new geography every time. Thus seats would have much more longevity and people would get to know them better.

    And, as with councillors, constituents would have a choice of people to contact with their issues.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    edited February 3
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Something I've thought about with Northamptonshire council's woes - why on earth is there the whole district/county split council malarkey.

    Switch it all to a single tier !

    The great thing the Tories have got in Northants is a great line up of MPs

    Hollobone
    Heaton-Harris
    Bone
    Leadsom

    plus Louise Mensch who used to be one
    Northamptonshire has shifted heavily rightwards since the early 2000's.
    A hopeless county council and a bunch of hopeless MPs; where did Northants go wrong?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,714
    Kensington, Northamptonshire

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,086
    edited February 3
    I weep for my party.

    PM - Boris

    Chancellor - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    Brexit Minister stationed in Bruxelles to keep an eye on stuff - IDS

    Unspecified cabinet role for Priti Patel
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    I weep for my party.

    PM - Boris

    Chancellor - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    Brexit Minister stationed in Bruxelles to keep an eye on stuff - IDS

    Unspecified cabinet role for Priti Patel

    One wonders how they think they would get any plans through Parliament.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    dr_spyn said:
    A strong clue that Ellwood is the mystery minister who has been dithering about resignation?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Maomentum seem thrilled that people are talking to the resigning leader of Haringay:

This discussion has been closed.