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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Building the barricade. How the Conservatives are minimising t

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited February 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Building the barricade. How the Conservatives are minimising their chances of picking up former Remain voters

What are government policies for? If you were to ask the average member of the public, they would probably tell you that they were to set the best way possible for running the country on the particular topic at hand.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • AugustineAugustine Posts: 11
    First?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    Roughly 25% of Remain voters do support the Conservatives, so the party must be doing something to appeal to them (or perhaps, Labour are repelling them.). Nonetheless, there are a fair number of right wing people who on balance decided to back Remain, but aren't too concerned about the result. Several of them post here.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,489
    Mortimer said:

    "if the Brexiteers had the numbers, they would have already made their move against the Prime Minister"

    ne'er have truer words been spoken.

    Go and read either Fall Out or All out War. They patently to have the numbers.

    But they don't need to depose Mrs May; they have enough sway to do it and leave her in place.

    Remember every Remainer wheeze which was going to lead a a Remain victory/stop/soften Brexit - Obama's queue, Osborne's punishment budget, Gina Miller's court case, James Chapman's new party, the Florence speech was going to signal a change to a soft Brexit etc etc etc - the golden rule of Brexit is that everything which Remainers think will help their cause does no such thing....

    i.e. there are a group of Brexiteers for whom deposing May is neither necessary nor desirable.

    Which means, really, they do not have the numbers.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,523
    “What we learned this week is that the government has no interest in formulating a Brexit policy in the public interest.”

    I don’t agree.

    There’s a battle going on inside govt and inside the Conservative party - what we are learning is how much Theresa May will sacrifice to remain PM and to prevent the likes of Mogg/Johnson from taking over.

    And she’s doing that because she wants a Brexit policy in the public interest.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 862
    I've said it before and I'll say it again, assuming we make it through to 2022 Brexit will not be the lens through which the next GE will be seen.

    It will, depending on who leads the Conservatives into GE2022, be seen as a straight choice between a government that increasingly looks bereft of ideas led by tired and discredited figures (if led by TMay or another from the old guard), vs a radical plan of action by a hard left Corbynite administration. The Lib Dems will struggle to be heard as they were in 2017, leaving us with a binary choice between muddling on as we are now, or embracing radical socialism.

    Ultimately GE2022 will hinge on whether or not there is a feelgood factor - how will the economy be performing? What will the housing market look like? Have people had a pay rise this year? And whether or not the Conservatives can find enough jam to splurge - on the railways? lowering tuition fees or cancelling student debt? extending help to buy? - to convince swing voters to support them.

    The fanatics and ultras of both sides see everything through a Brexit lens, the vast majority of the electorate don't, and certainly won't by 2022.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    edited February 4
    Many commentators have noted that the economic impact assessments will change no one’s minds. They’re right. No one is going to change their view of the merits of the idea of Brexit either way on the basis of a prediction of a difference in 5% of GDP over 10 years. Those who want to believe will believe, those who don’t want to believe, won’t.

    Baker, Rees Mogg and Duncan Smith are clearly worried that the reports MIGHT change people's minds. Otherwise they wouldn't be so anxious to impugn the motives of those creating them.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116

    Mortimer said:

    "if the Brexiteers had the numbers, they would have already made their move against the Prime Minister"

    ne'er have truer words been spoken.

    Go and read either Fall Out or All out War. They patently to have the numbers.

    But they don't need to depose Mrs May; they have enough sway to do it and leave her in place.

    Remember every Remainer wheeze which was going to lead a a Remain victory/stop/soften Brexit - Obama's queue, Osborne's punishment budget, Gina Miller's court case, James Chapman's new party, the Florence speech was going to signal a change to a soft Brexit etc etc etc - the golden rule of Brexit is that everything which Remainers think will help their cause does no such thing....

    i.e. there are a group of Brexiteers for whom deposing May is neither necessary nor desirable.

    Which means, really, they do not have the numbers.
    The ERG is large enough to prevent anything they don't want from happening.

    Mrs May knows this.

    It is why there wont be any of the following:

    - a second referendum
    - a SM and CU* proposal
    - a reversal of Brexit

    * THE customs union. I fully expect us to have A customs arrangement

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517
    "The vast extent of the Roman empire was governed by absolute power, under the guidance of virtue and wisdom. The armies were restrained by the firm but gentle hand of four successive emperors, whose characters and authority commanded involuntary respect. The forms of the civil administration were carefully preserved by Nerva, Trajan, Hadrian, and the Antonines, who delighted in the image of liberty, and were pleased with considering themselves as the accountable ministers of the laws." - Edward Gibbon

    A bit different to our lot.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    Sean_F said:

    Roughly 25% of Remain voters do support the Conservatives, so the party must be doing something to appeal to them (or perhaps, Labour are repelling them.). Nonetheless, there are a fair number of right wing people who on balance decided to back Remain, but aren't too concerned about the result. Several of them post here.

    Or simply (shock horror!) there are a lot of voters who consider other matters more important. Likely to be true of Lab and LD Leave voters too.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    Sean_F said:

    Roughly 25% of Remain voters do support the Conservatives, so the party must be doing something to appeal to them (or perhaps, Labour are repelling them.). Nonetheless, there are a fair number of right wing people who on balance decided to back Remain, but aren't too concerned about the result. Several of them post here.

    The electoral risk for the Conservatives IMO is that most people in so called Leave areas, ie economically deprived parts, voted Leave in despair rather than because they identified any real prospects. Those people may not regret their choice but they are very cynical towards politicians and aren't going to reward the likes of Rees Mogg and Johnson. OTOH voters in economically successful areas that voted Remain are appalled by the damage Brexit is causing and have every intention of punishing the perpetrators.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    kyf_100 said:

    I've said it before and I'll say it again, assuming we make it through to 2022 Brexit will not be the lens through which the next GE will be seen.

    In order for Brexit not to be an issue in 2022, it will need to be done and dusted well before then. The only way that can happen is if it doesn't happen.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517
    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roughly 25% of Remain voters do support the Conservatives, so the party must be doing something to appeal to them (or perhaps, Labour are repelling them.). Nonetheless, there are a fair number of right wing people who on balance decided to back Remain, but aren't too concerned about the result. Several of them post here.

    The electoral risk for the Conservatives IMO is that most people in so called Leave areas, ie economically deprived parts, voted Leave in despair rather than because they identified any real prospects. Those people may not regret their choice but they are very cynical towards politicians and aren't going to reward the likes of Rees Mogg and Johnson. OTOH voters in economically successful areas that voted Remain are appalled by the damage Brexit is causing and have every intention of punishing the perpetrators.
    Can confirm.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,511
    Theresa May looked like one scary lady in that pic... :open_mouth:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roughly 25% of Remain voters do support the Conservatives, so the party must be doing something to appeal to them (or perhaps, Labour are repelling them.). Nonetheless, there are a fair number of right wing people who on balance decided to back Remain, but aren't too concerned about the result. Several of them post here.

    The electoral risk for the Conservatives IMO is that most people in so called Leave areas, ie economically deprived parts, voted Leave in despair rather than because they identified any real prospects. Those people may not regret their choice but they are very cynical towards politicians and aren't going to reward the likes of Rees Mogg and Johnson. OTOH voters in economically successful areas that voted Remain are appalled by the damage Brexit is causing and have every intention of punishing the perpetrators.
    At the moment those who support Brexit are trying to perpetuate a culture war to maintain the link between Brexit and the 'left behind'. If that link proves unsustainable the Brexiteers will face a perfect electoral storm of hostility from both camps.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,489
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    "if the Brexiteers had the numbers, they would have already made their move against the Prime Minister"

    ne'er have truer words been spoken.

    Go and read either Fall Out or All out War. They patently to have the numbers.

    But they don't need to depose Mrs May; they have enough sway to do it and leave her in place.

    Remember every Remainer wheeze which was going to lead a a Remain victory/stop/soften Brexit - Obama's queue, Osborne's punishment budget, Gina Miller's court case, James Chapman's new party, the Florence speech was going to signal a change to a soft Brexit etc etc etc - the golden rule of Brexit is that everything which Remainers think will help their cause does no such thing....

    i.e. there are a group of Brexiteers for whom deposing May is neither necessary nor desirable.

    Which means, really, they do not have the numbers.
    The ERG is large enough to prevent anything they don't want from happening.

    Mrs May knows this.

    It is why there wont be any of the following:

    - a second referendum
    - a SM and CU* proposal
    - a reversal of Brexit

    * THE customs union. I fully expect us to have A customs arrangement

    I agree.

    That is "moderate" Brexit.

    Which all rather suggests that the group of people who demand a "JRM" Brexit do not hold sway.

    I guess looking back the word "Brexiteer" was a bit confusing. The 52% have power, the JRM set do not.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200
    FF43 said:

    Many commentators have noted that the economic impact assessments will change no one’s minds. They’re right. No one is going to change their view of the merits of the idea of Brexit either way on the basis of a prediction of a difference in 5% of GDP over 10 years. Those who want to believe will believe, those who don’t want to believe, won’t.

    Baker, Rees Mogg and Duncan Smith are clearly worried that the reports MIGHT change people's minds. Otherwise they wouldn't be so anxious to impugn the motives of those creating them.

    TBH I don't think the reports will change enough people's minds. However as Mr kyf_100 pusts it the 2022 GE will be decided on how people feel about the general economic situation and if the forecasts appear to be turning out to be right, if the background noise is unpleasant, it may be enough to put the Tories out.
    Although I have no doubt that the Mail and the Sun will blame "Brussels' for the impending downturn, and urge a rally round the flag.
  • NormNorm Posts: 792
    It seems likely the current neck to neck opinion polls won't shift much until Brexit is in the rear view mirror. In formerly northern heartland areas I suspect one of the reasons Lab have gone seemingly backwards since 2016 is because leave voters are distrustful of Labour on Europe and backing the Tories to get Brexit done. Post Brexit the opposition parties will get their great chance as other issues come to the fore.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 399
    The three examples of this are all spurious:

    "The denigration of “citizens of nowhere”"

    This was actually criticism of multinational companies that didn't pay tax to any country. That is actually reaching across the left-right divide by a Tory. It was cynically spun by Remainers as being about foreigners.

    "The use of EU citizens as bargaining counters"

    Amazingly, this is a criticism which is never directed at Angela Merkel or the EU. That is because it is a ridiculous criticism. Obviously, both sides wanted to make a deal but had to make sure there was reciprocity for their own citizens. Again, cynical spinning by Remainers.

    "The complicity with the language of the tabloids when they attacked the judiciary as enemies of the people and Remain supporters as saboteurs."

    Clearly terrible headlines, but given no government wants to set a precedent of disapproving (or therefor approving for those they don't comment on) on every tabloid headline, they can't get involved.

    The lack of anything substantial on this list shows what a weak case it is.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 399

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roughly 25% of Remain voters do support the Conservatives, so the party must be doing something to appeal to them (or perhaps, Labour are repelling them.). Nonetheless, there are a fair number of right wing people who on balance decided to back Remain, but aren't too concerned about the result. Several of them post here.

    The electoral risk for the Conservatives IMO is that most people in so called Leave areas, ie economically deprived parts, voted Leave in despair rather than because they identified any real prospects. Those people may not regret their choice but they are very cynical towards politicians and aren't going to reward the likes of Rees Mogg and Johnson. OTOH voters in economically successful areas that voted Remain are appalled by the damage Brexit is causing and have every intention of punishing the perpetrators.
    At the moment those who support Brexit are trying to perpetuate a culture war to maintain the link between Brexit and the 'left behind'. If that link proves unsustainable the Brexiteers will face a perfect electoral storm of hostility from both camps.
    Only if they try to make the mistake of using a soft Brexit to people who want no Brecit at all and have already criticised the soft transition.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    Elliot said:

    "The denigration of “citizens of nowhere”"

    This was actually criticism of multinational companies that didn't pay tax to any country. That is actually reaching across the left-right divide by a Tory. It was cynically spun by Remainers as being about foreigners.

    So when Theresa May said this, she didn't intend to make any link between the EU and the 'citizens of nowhere'?

    For the referendum was not just a vote to withdraw from the EU. It was about something broader – something that the European Union had come to represent.

    It was about a sense – deep, profound and let’s face it often justified – that many people have today that the world works well for a privileged few, but not for them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497

    "The vast extent of the Roman empire was governed by absolute power, under the guidance of virtue and wisdom. The armies were restrained by the firm but gentle hand of four successive emperors, whose characters and authority commanded involuntary respect. The forms of the civil administration were carefully preserved by Nerva, Trajan, Hadrian, and the Antonines, who delighted in the image of liberty, and were pleased with considering themselves as the accountable ministers of the laws." - Edward Gibbon

    A bit different to our lot.

    It would be if it were true. However, it was written by Edward Gibbon and while I am no expert on the Five Good Emperors that doesn't quite match what I know of them. So I am assuming it is typical bombastic rhetoric from old Funky.

    (BTW it's 'different from.')
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    "if the Brexiteers had the numbers, they would have already made their move against the Prime Minister"

    ne'er have truer words been spoken.

    Go and read either Fall Out or All out War. They patently to have the numbers.

    But they don't need to depose Mrs May; they have enough sway to do it and leave her in place.

    Remember every Remainer wheeze which was going to lead a a Remain victory/stop/soften Brexit - Obama's queue, Osborne's punishment budget, Gina Miller's court case, James Chapman's new party, the Florence speech was going to signal a change to a soft Brexit etc etc etc - the golden rule of Brexit is that everything which Remainers think will help their cause does no such thing....

    i.e. there are a group of Brexiteers for whom deposing May is neither necessary nor desirable.

    Which means, really, they do not have the numbers.
    The ERG is large enough to prevent anything they don't want from happening.

    Mrs May knows this.

    It is why there wont be any of the following:

    - a second referendum
    - a SM and CU* proposal
    - a reversal of Brexit

    * THE customs union. I fully expect us to have A customs arrangement

    I agree.

    That is "moderate" Brexit.

    Which all rather suggests that the group of people who demand a "JRM" Brexit do not hold sway.

    I guess looking back the word "Brexiteer" was a bit confusing. The 52% have power, the JRM set do not.
    Oh I see, got it, sorry. Thought you had gone all williamglenn....
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 506
    edited February 4
    I find it a little odd to think that apparently targeting the 52 per cent who voted Brexit rather than the 48 per cent who voted remain who have the option of voting Labour, the Lib Dems, Green, Plaid or SNP is a problematic electoral strategy? Assuming UKIP doesn't have a resurgence - there wont be anyone else to vote for if delivering Brexit is your sole determining voting choice.

    As for Tory remain voters - I would expect they are disproportionately located in London and the South east, generally live in nice areas in nice houses and do professional jobs perhaps in the City. They may not like Brexit but they may fear John McDonnell in No 11 even more!

    But in reality the vast majority of voters outside the bubble won't be voting on Brexit in 2022. As in 2017 it will be issues like the NHS, social care and how you pay for it, housing, student fees crime that decide votes etc.

    The debate was reframed afterwards but in reality Brexit was barely discussed in the last 4 weeks of the 2017 campaign as the Labour and Tory positions on the issue were pretty much aligned and many leave voters were happy to back Labour as they believed it was settled Labour policy. If you wanted to stop Brexit - and that really decided your vote - you could have joined the 8 per cent who voted LD.

    Divide and rule has always been a very effective electoral strategy for the Tories in the past.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    edited February 4
    Some good points in the lead. The Tories may be the party of Brexit, but they are likely to be found severely wanting as the party best able to address the challenges that Brexit will present.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    Charles Moore is a fan of Williamson...
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 506
    edited February 4
    FF43 said:

    Many commentators have noted that the economic impact assessments will change no one’s minds. They’re right. No one is going to change their view of the merits of the idea of Brexit either way on the basis of a prediction of a difference in 5% of GDP over 10 years. Those who want to believe will believe, those who don’t want to believe, won’t.

    Baker, Rees Mogg and Duncan Smith are clearly worried that the reports MIGHT change people's minds. Otherwise they wouldn't be so anxious to impugn the motives of those creating them.

    Problem with the framing of the argument around GDP is of course that it's very macro and doesn't relate to people's daily lives and in any case there is a real and correct perception that GDP growth isn't being shared equally anymore and doesn't directly benefit them. Now if we moved to a GDP per capita measure that might be a good start - Iran has a higher GDP than Norway.

    And of course as Robert Kennedy once said - GDP measures everything except that which actually makes life worthwhile. It doesn't measure as he said family, devotion to country, compassion, culture, health or indeed the integrity of civil servants and politicians. More Money and more GDP doesn't always buy you happiness if you can't afford to buy a secure home for your family anymore or provide for your kids to have a decent future.

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/may/24/robert-kennedy-gdp
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    brendan16 said:

    I find it a little odd to think that apparently targeting the 52 per cent who voted Brexit rather than the 48 per cent who voted remain who have the option of voting Labour, the Lib Dems, Green, Plaid or SNP is a problematic electoral strategy? Assuming UKIP doesn't have a resurgence - there wont be anyone else to vote for if delivering Brexit is your sole determining voting choice.

    As for Tory remain voters - I would expect they are disproportionately located in London and the South east, generally live in nice areas in nice houses and do professional jobs perhaps in the City. They may not like Brexit but they may fear John McDonnell in No 11 even more!

    But in reality the vast majority of voters outside the bubble won't be voting on Brexit in 2022. As in 2017 it will be issues like the NHS, social care and how you pay for it, housing, student fees crime that decide votes etc.

    The debate was reframed afterwards but in reality Brexit was barely discussed in the last 4 weeks of the 2017 campaign as the Labour and Tory positions on the issue were pretty much aligned and many leave voters were happy to back Labour as they believed it was settled Labour policy. If you wanted to stop Brexit - and that really decided your vote - you could have joined the 8 per cent who voted LD.

    Divide and rule has always been a very effective electoral strategy for the Tories in the past.

    Though what really destroys the Tories is when they lose their reputation for economic competence. It was that wot won it for Labour in 1997, 1974,1964. If those economic forecasts are right, or wrong by being optomistic, then it will be hell to play. You can bet that voters won't blame themselves!

    Worth noting that stockmarkets here and in the USA look rather peaky, and as RCS1000 points out, a downturn in consumer spending long overdue, independent of Brexit.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 506
    Foxy said:

    brendan16 said:

    I find it a little odd to think that apparently targeting the 52 per cent who voted Brexit rather than the 48 per cent who voted remain who have the option of voting Labour, the Lib Dems, Green, Plaid or SNP is a problematic electoral strategy? Assuming UKIP doesn't have a resurgence - there wont be anyone else to vote for if delivering Brexit is your sole determining voting choice.

    As for Tory remain voters - I would expect they are disproportionately located in London and the South east, generally live in nice areas in nice houses and do professional jobs perhaps in the City. They may not like Brexit but they may fear John McDonnell in No 11 even more!

    But in reality the vast majority of voters outside the bubble won't be voting on Brexit in 2022. As in 2017 it will be issues like the NHS, social care and how you pay for it, housing, student fees crime that decide votes etc.

    The debate was reframed afterwards but in reality Brexit was barely discussed in the last 4 weeks of the 2017 campaign as the Labour and Tory positions on the issue were pretty much aligned and many leave voters were happy to back Labour as they believed it was settled Labour policy. If you wanted to stop Brexit - and that really decided your vote - you could have joined the 8 per cent who voted LD.

    Divide and rule has always been a very effective electoral strategy for the Tories in the past.

    Though what really destroys the Tories is when they lose their reputation for economic competence. It was that wot won it for Labour in 1997, 1974,1964. If those economic forecasts are right, or wrong by being optomistic, then it will be hell to play. You can bet that voters won't blame themselves!

    Worth noting that stockmarkets here and in the USA look rather peaky, and as RCS1000 points out, a downturn in consumer spending long overdue, independent of Brexit.
    And they won in 1992 because there was an expectation despite the recession and economic downturn and falling house prices Labour was more risky.

    If the Treasury forecasts are correct....... Well they aren't always. We are of course due a stock market correction - but that assumes the Ponzi money printing schemes which have been introduced since 2008 can ever be allowed to burst.

    And if May or the Tories aren't the answer - will Corbyn like Kinnock be seen as the safe alternative? He is hardly Blair or Wilson.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 506
    If you want to be Tory leader and PM and please the rank and file being seen to oppose defence cuts is not a bad strategy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    Alastair’s contributions above and below the line are becoming blurred. A pity.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295
    Another day in the cold civil war going on Labour below the media radar:

  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 58
    edited February 4
    It is clear there are a minority of ultra-remainers who still haven't reconciled themselves to Brexit and, as with Meek's header, the superficial acknowledgement of the legitimacy of the result is countered with the suggestion that a re-vote would be appropriate if the final deal is considered to be a net negative to the UK's economy.

    I can understand their perspective if you view it through the prism of Brexit consuming your every waking thought but the reality, for the vast majority of voters on both sides, is that Brexit is settled as a destination with just the route to be finalised.

    The Remainers would be far better served taking the honest option of having an open and frank discussion with the electorate at the next GE about the benefits of re-joining the EU and fully integrating with the project.

    My feeling is that they are terrified of this option because they know the chances of convincing voters to re-join is next to zero, which is strange because you would think that their confident assertions of economic Armageddon would provide a clear opportunity to immerse the UK in the centre of the EU rather than have us lurking moodily and unhelpful on the fringes.

    For the last few ultra-remainers health and sanity i'd suggest that just 'get over it'...as the kids say.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,908
    brendan16 said:

    FF43 said:

    Many commentators have noted that the economic impact assessments will change no one’s minds. They’re right. No one is going to change their view of the merits of the idea of Brexit either way on the basis of a prediction of a difference in 5% of GDP over 10 years. Those who want to believe will believe, those who don’t want to believe, won’t.

    Baker, Rees Mogg and Duncan Smith are clearly worried that the reports MIGHT change people's minds. Otherwise they wouldn't be so anxious to impugn the motives of those creating them.

    Problem with the framing of the argument around GDP is of course that it's very macro and doesn't relate to people's daily lives and in any case there is a real and correct perception that GDP growth isn't being shared equally anymore and doesn't directly benefit them. Now if we moved to a GDP per capita measure that might be a good start - Iran has a higher GDP than Norway.

    And of course as Robert Kennedy once said - GDP measures everything except that which actually makes life worthwhile. It doesn't measure as he said family, devotion to country, compassion, culture, health or indeed the integrity of civil servants and politicians. More Money and more GDP doesn't always buy you happiness if you can't afford to buy a secure home for your family anymore or provide for your kids to have a decent future.

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/may/24/robert-kennedy-gdp
    Re GDP.

    I'm not going to disagree with your contention that GDP per capita is what matters, but it is worth remembering this: in a situation where the TFR is well below replacement levels, then a focus on near term GDP per capita will result in very serious long term problems. For, while it is a pyramid scheme to keep importing people to raise GDP, it is equally a pyramid scheme to have an ever increasing number of retirees supported by a diminishing number of workers. (See Japan.)

    And on growth in GDP, there is the same long-term, short-term split. Imagine that there were two countries: one with the things you mention (compassion, culture, devotion to family, etc), and one with 0.5% faster GDP growth per year. Over a five year period, who wouldn't want to be in the former? They're only 5% poorer and have a bunch of things that make life there better. But fast forward 50 years, when the people in the former country are only half as rich? Then you see the exodus of the brightest and the best (see Ireland) in the 1950s, 60s and 70s.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295
    Foxy said:

    brendan16 said:

    I find it a little odd to think that apparently targeting the 52 per cent who voted Brexit rather than the 48 per cent who voted remain who have the option of voting Labour, the Lib Dems, Green, Plaid or SNP is a problematic electoral strategy? Assuming UKIP doesn't have a resurgence - there wont be anyone else to vote for if delivering Brexit is your sole determining voting choice.

    As for Tory remain voters - I would expect they are disproportionately located in London and the South east, generally live in nice areas in nice houses and do professional jobs perhaps in the City. They may not like Brexit but they may fear John McDonnell in No 11 even more!

    But in reality the vast majority of voters outside the bubble won't be voting on Brexit in 2022. As in 2017 it will be issues like the NHS, social care and how you pay for it, housing, student fees crime that decide votes etc.

    The debate was reframed afterwards but in reality Brexit was barely discussed in the last 4 weeks of the 2017 campaign as the Labour and Tory positions on the issue were pretty much aligned and many leave voters were happy to back Labour as they believed it was settled Labour policy. If you wanted to stop Brexit - and that really decided your vote - you could have joined the 8 per cent who voted LD.

    Divide and rule has always been a very effective electoral strategy for the Tories in the past.

    Though what really destroys the Tories is when they lose their reputation for economic competence. It was that wot won it for Labour in 1997, 1974,1964. If those economic forecasts are right, or wrong by being optomistic, then it will be hell to play. You can bet that voters won't blame themselves!

    Worth noting that stockmarkets here and in the USA look rather peaky, and as RCS1000 points out, a downturn in consumer spending long overdue, independent of Brexit.
    US stock markets may picking up what currency traders are already focusing on: risk of inflation in an overheating US where Trump has just thrown tax-cut petrol on the fire.

    10-year us bond yields up, heading to 3%.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    edited February 4


    Steerpike suspects describing Brexiteers as snake oil salesmen doesn’t do much to advance the argument that civil servants are neutral on the topic…
  • Weird - the 2017 election result should have taught us that everything we knew about the certainties of politics was wrong - nothing more and nothing less. Having said that I remain of the view that an election held on county council election day would have yielded a massive majority for Mrs May and the biggest danger now would be her beginning to think she was a God.

    However, that didn't happen and we are where we are. One of the very few likelihoods now is that we are wrong when we talk of a 2022 GE. That is unlikely to happen. There will be a change of Conservative leader and that will certainly not be in May 2022. Most probable is late 2020, possible early 2021. The new leader will surely need a mandate and go to the country within six months of their selection.

    To say Brexit will have no effect is to say that WWII had no effect on the 1945 GE result. Playing on it will probably be counter productive for anyone who tries, regardless of the consequences by then.

    I have ALWAYS thought Corbyn came over much better that his detractors alleged. Now, he is getting much better at it, not worse. But, to me his policies could not be more repulsive and dangerous - but that is only me - and I wouldn't starve if he were elected. Of course there are few other Labour spokesmen and women who are not repellant on telly - they seem unable as yet to sort that one.

    When we Tories ran "New Labour, New Danger" every single thing which was said was understatement, not overstatement. There was no aspect of the Blair Brown government which did not turn out to be worse than we said it would be in 1997.

    When the next GE comes the Tory Party will need a clever and engaging leader advocating policies which are popular but with a vague prospect that they are at least in spirit capable of working.

    The one thing the Tory Party does have is time. There is a premise behind this and many recent thread headers that the party will jump off a cliff. Clearly that would be suicide and won't happen. Of course as in the 1990s it might get to the stage where it falls off the cliff and for that reason it should avoid getting too close to the edge. So, I think Mrs May is safe, at least until late 2020 and the premise behind this and many other thread headers is false.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652
    Wow. This is just amazing ...
  • Given his close connections, this is very interesting.

    Matthew d'Ancona: This Brexit mess cannot go on. Theresa May must stand down now

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/04/brexit-mess-theresa-may-tories?CMP=twt_gu
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530
    Elliot said:

    The three examples of this are all spurious:

    "The denigration of “citizens of nowhere”"

    This was actually criticism of multinational companies that didn't pay tax to any country. That is actually reaching across the left-right divide by a Tory. It was cynically spun by Remainers as being about foreigners.

    "The use of EU citizens as bargaining counters"

    Amazingly, this is a criticism which is never directed at Angela Merkel or the EU. That is because it is a ridiculous criticism. Obviously, both sides wanted to make a deal but had to make sure there was reciprocity for their own citizens. Again, cynical spinning by Remainers.

    "The complicity with the language of the tabloids when they attacked the judiciary as enemies of the people and Remain supporters as saboteurs."

    Clearly terrible headlines, but given no government wants to set a precedent of disapproving (or therefor approving for those they don't comment on) on every tabloid headline, they can't get involved.

    The lack of anything substantial on this list shows what a weak case it is.

    It is in my view one of the EU's greatest strengths that it is prepared to stick it to the big, non-taxpaying IT companies in a way our governments never are. The "bargaining chip" point is even more nonsensical than you suggest, because it's asymmetrical in our favour. There are 27 nations of whom not one declared in a spontaneous upwelling of general loveliness that it felt the EU should make us a lovely, unilateral offer of EU citizenship for all; either because each and every one is as soulless and horrible as we are, or because it would be a fecking stupid idea. So why single out one of 28 exactly equally guilty parties? And "complicity" is a nonsense. The government neither writes, nor has the power of veto over, tabloid headlines, so what is the accusation here? It's a smear by association, like saying that leave voters were "complicit" in the actions of Thomas Mair.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    Annexed? ANNEXED?!!!

    It's ours, I tell you. I know those bloody French stole it in Tudor times, but it's properly English and they should never have been allowed to keep it. We should take it back, by force if need be, so they can enjoy the rights of being outside the EU and have the chance to kick out all those pesky migrants.

    (I'm practising for a gig where I have to defend Spain's claim to Gibraltar. How did I do?)
  • Judging by the mauling Laura Kuhnnsberg got this morning on Newswatch I am relieved that I am not alone in loathing the BBC shouty style which we are all paying an order of magnitude too much for. "When are you going to resign Prime Minister ?" "When are you going to take a pay cut back to something a real world employer would pay Ms Kuhnnsberg ?"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Bloody Mary would be pleased......
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 4,646



    Steerpike suspects describing Brexiteers as snake oil salesmen doesn’t do much to advance the argument that civil servants are neutral on the topic…

    Gus O'Donnell isn't a civil servant any more, and hasn't been one for six years now. Do you still describe Tony Blair as the Prime Minister?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    ttps://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/960178944443125762

    Steerpike suspects describing Brexiteers as snake oil salesmen doesn’t do much to advance the argument that civil servants are neutral on the topic…

    Sir GOD opening mouth purely for the purpose of inserting foot.
  • ydoethur said:

    Annexed? ANNEXED?!!!

    It's ours, I tell you. I know those bloody French stole it in Tudor times, but it's properly English and they should never have been allowed to keep it. We should take it back, by force if need be, so they can enjoy the rights of being outside the EU and have the chance to kick out all those pesky migrants.

    (I'm practising for a gig where I have to defend Spain's claim to Gibraltar. How did I do?)
    I know.

    Dave would have won the referendum 95% to 5% if the deal included France honouring the Treaty of Troyes.

    Gibraltar is Spain's, we need to accept this, will help with the Brexit talks.

    How about giving Gibraltar to Spain on a 99 year lease, then having a referendum in Gibraltar if they'd want to join Spain?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,086
    edited February 4
    Is this the worst performance against a side from Rome since the Battle of Zama?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,707
    brendan16 said:

    Foxy said:

    brendan16 said:

    I find it a little odd to think that apparently targeting the 52 per cent who voted Brexit rather than the 48 per cent who voted remain who have the option of voting Labour, the Lib Dems, Green, Plaid or SNP is a problematic electoral strategy? Assuming UKIP doesn't have a resurgence - there wont be anyone else to vote for if delivering Brexit is your sole determining voting choice.

    As for Tory remain voters - I would expect they are disproportionately located in London and the South east, generally live in nice areas in nice houses and do professional jobs perhaps in the City. They may not like Brexit but they may fear John McDonnell in No 11 even more!

    But in reality the vast majority of voters outside the bubble won't be voting on Brexit in 2022. As in 2017 it will be issues like the NHS, social care and how you pay for it, housing, student fees crime that decide votes etc.

    The debate was reframed afterwards but in reality Brexit was barely discussed in the last 4 weeks of the 2017 campaign as the Labour and Tory positions on the issue were pretty much aligned and many leave voters were happy to back Labour as they believed it was settled Labour policy. If you wanted to stop Brexit - and that really decided your vote - you could have joined the 8 per cent who voted LD.

    Divide and rule has always been a very effective electoral strategy for the Tories in the past.

    Though what really destroys the Tories is when they lose their reputation for economic competence. It was that wot won it for Labour in 1997, 1974,1964. If those economic forecasts are right, or wrong by being optomistic, then it will be hell to play. You can bet that voters won't blame themselves!

    Worth noting that stockmarkets here and in the USA look rather peaky, and as RCS1000 points out, a downturn in consumer spending long overdue, independent of Brexit.
    And they won in 1992 because there was an expectation despite the recession and economic downturn and falling house prices Labour was more risky.

    If the Treasury forecasts are correct....... Well they aren't always. We are of course due a stock market correction - but that assumes the Ponzi money printing schemes which have been introduced since 2008 can ever be allowed to burst.

    And if May or the Tories aren't the answer - will Corbyn like Kinnock be seen as the safe alternative? He is hardly Blair or Wilson.
    Wilson struggled in 1964 to get an overall majority of 4.That was after 13 years of Conservative rule.Hard to see at the moment, a left government getting the same result.However the Tories are having a good go at trying .
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517
    ydoethur said:

    "The vast extent of the Roman empire was governed by absolute power, under the guidance of virtue and wisdom. The armies were restrained by the firm but gentle hand of four successive emperors, whose characters and authority commanded involuntary respect. The forms of the civil administration were carefully preserved by Nerva, Trajan, Hadrian, and the Antonines, who delighted in the image of liberty, and were pleased with considering themselves as the accountable ministers of the laws." - Edward Gibbon

    A bit different to our lot.

    It would be if it were true. However, it was written by Edward Gibbon and while I am no expert on the Five Good Emperors that doesn't quite match what I know of them. So I am assuming it is typical bombastic rhetoric from old Funky.

    (BTW it's 'different from.')
    My attempt at humour was based on the difference in tone between the eloquence of the 17th century and the informal way we talk today. It wasn't meant to be an actual comparison of the current government and that of Ancient Rome. But I like the Funky thing. Next time I quote him it will be as Edward Funky Gibbon.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Judging by the mauling Laura Kuhnnsberg got this morning on Newswatch I am relieved that I am not alone in loathing the BBC shouty style which we are all paying an order of magnitude too much for. "When are you going to resign Prime Minister ?" "When are you going to take a pay cut back to something a real world employer would pay Ms Kuhnnsberg ?"

    The journalists all aspire to be Paxman or the US news networks, generating a five second sound bite that plays well on Twitter. They’d be better off learning from the likes of Andrew Neil and Stephen Sackur, who are masters at the art of a difficult political interview yet do it in a very polite way.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Is this the worst performance against a side from Rome since the Battle of Zama?

    The Irish have the record for the best attack in Rome, 10-63 last year.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,523
    Good on Amber Rudd for defending civil servants wholeheartedly.

    Vince was interesting to listen to - I was surprised he didn’t say the Lib Dem’s would definitely campaign to rejoin the EU if we do leave.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,845
    edited February 4
    I see 'citzens of nowhere' is becoming the 'no such thing as society' de nos jours, with righties parsing the arse out of it to distance their representative from perceived nasty partyness. Of course that ignores the fact that it's a primary job of professional pols to be clear when they mean to be and ambiguous when they mean to be. If you're pm during the largest political upheaval of the age which like it or not is giving off more than a whiff of xenophobia, popping out 'citzens of nowhere' is either dumb or whiffy.

    Thankfully we're unlikely to be analysing every word of Tessy's in 30 years time, unless Brexit turns out to be a complete, blistering clusterfcuk.

    Oh..
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010

    "The vast extent of the Roman empire was governed by absolute power, under the guidance of virtue and wisdom. The armies were restrained by the firm but gentle hand of four successive emperors, whose characters and authority commanded involuntary respect. The forms of the civil administration were carefully preserved by Nerva, Trajan, Hadrian, and the Antonines, who delighted in the image of liberty, and were pleased with considering themselves as the accountable ministers of the laws." - Edward Gibbon

    A bit different to our lot.

    It's a very rose-tinted view of these emperors. Trajan, Hadrian, and Marcus Aurelius were pretty brutal, and Hadrian was a murderous anti-Semite, too boot.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,908
    Sean_F said:

    "The vast extent of the Roman empire was governed by absolute power, under the guidance of virtue and wisdom. The armies were restrained by the firm but gentle hand of four successive emperors, whose characters and authority commanded involuntary respect. The forms of the civil administration were carefully preserved by Nerva, Trajan, Hadrian, and the Antonines, who delighted in the image of liberty, and were pleased with considering themselves as the accountable ministers of the laws." - Edward Gibbon

    A bit different to our lot.

    It's a very rose-tinted view of these emperors. Trajan, Hadrian, and Marcus Aurelius were pretty brutal, and Hadrian was a murderous anti-Semite, too boot.
    True.

    But in 2,000 more years, whose name will have endured: Hadrian or May?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roughly 25% of Remain voters do support the Conservatives, so the party must be doing something to appeal to them (or perhaps, Labour are repelling them.). Nonetheless, there are a fair number of right wing people who on balance decided to back Remain, but aren't too concerned about the result. Several of them post here.

    The electoral risk for the Conservatives IMO is that most people in so called Leave areas, ie economically deprived parts, voted Leave in despair rather than because they identified any real prospects. Those people may not regret their choice but they are very cynical towards politicians and aren't going to reward the likes of Rees Mogg and Johnson. OTOH voters in economically successful areas that voted Remain are appalled by the damage Brexit is causing and have every intention of punishing the perpetrators.
    The potential upside for the Conservatives is if industrial towns and Coastal resorts benefit from Brexit.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    "The vast extent of the Roman empire was governed by absolute power, under the guidance of virtue and wisdom. The armies were restrained by the firm but gentle hand of four successive emperors, whose characters and authority commanded involuntary respect. The forms of the civil administration were carefully preserved by Nerva, Trajan, Hadrian, and the Antonines, who delighted in the image of liberty, and were pleased with considering themselves as the accountable ministers of the laws." - Edward Gibbon

    A bit different to our lot.

    It's a very rose-tinted view of these emperors. Trajan, Hadrian, and Marcus Aurelius were pretty brutal, and Hadrian was a murderous anti-Semite, too boot.
    True.

    But in 2,000 more years, whose name will have endured: Hadrian or May?
    Depends on if she ends up having to build a wall in Ireland.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,908

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    "The vast extent of the Roman empire was governed by absolute power, under the guidance of virtue and wisdom. The armies were restrained by the firm but gentle hand of four successive emperors, whose characters and authority commanded involuntary respect. The forms of the civil administration were carefully preserved by Nerva, Trajan, Hadrian, and the Antonines, who delighted in the image of liberty, and were pleased with considering themselves as the accountable ministers of the laws." - Edward Gibbon

    A bit different to our lot.

    It's a very rose-tinted view of these emperors. Trajan, Hadrian, and Marcus Aurelius were pretty brutal, and Hadrian was a murderous anti-Semite, too boot.
    True.

    But in 2,000 more years, whose name will have endured: Hadrian or May?
    Depends on if she ends up having to build a wall in Ireland.
    It was actually a trick question. Because of Brexit there will be World War 3, and neither of their names will survive.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,563
    rkrkrk said:

    Good on Amber Rudd for defending civil servants wholeheartedly.

    Vince was interesting to listen to - I was surprised he didn’t say the Lib Dem’s would definitely campaign to rejoin the EU if we do leave.

    Indeed. I think the LD line is much more nuanced than some on here believe or report. The party has always seen the imperfections in the EU political and economic model and genuinely believed at one time the EU as an institution was capable of reform.

    The position then came to be the wholly negative "we stay in because we believe leaving would be worse" which in effect was the default REMAIN position on 23/6/16. It wasn't even lukewarm enthusiasm - it was the security a prisoner has for his cell after a long sentence and a fear of the unknown waiting outside the prison walls.

    Now we are out and have to survive outside and the idea of returning to the cell doesn't look so attractive but that's not to say the country is anywhere near united in our future path because that's a debate we can't or won't or are not allowed to have.

  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,289
    I have just returned from a punishing Times assignment in Mauritius. I can report that it is a pleasant place, with good food, lovely beaches, and some truly excellent hotels (e.g. One and Only Saint Geran).

    And there was absolutely no mention of Brexit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Good evening, everyone.

    Six Nations: Italy played better than the scoreline suggested. Pleased one bet came off, the other wasn't daft but sadly didn't come off.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530

    I see 'citzens of nowhere' is becoming the 'no such thing as society' de nos jours, with righties parsing the arse out of it to distance their representative from perceived nasty partyness. Of course that ignores the fact that it's a primary job of professional pols to be clear when they mean to be and ambiguous when they mean to be. If you're pm during the largest political upheaval of the age which like it or not is giving off more than a whiff of xenophobia, popping out 'citzens of nowhere' is either dumb or whiffy.

    Thankfully we're unlikely to be analysing every word of Tessy's in 30 years time, unless Brexit turns out to be a complete, blistering clusterfcuk.

    Oh..

    Harsh. I didn't know "citizen of nowhere" had anti-Semitic form. Did you? I can't believe she did, or she wouldn't have said it: do not ascribe to malice that which can be explained as ignorance and stupidity. Her targets are rich individuals and megacorps, in the main (one of them is facebook, which I suppose is, given Mark Zuckerberg's antecedents, quite a good candidate for a worldwide Zionist conspiracy) and she is trying to tap into the anti-tax-dodging vote which gave ed mili such a boost in 2015 (and stupidly overlooking the possibility that what she says will be applied to brexit). And ironically I think the beginning of the passage is specifically designed as a rebuttal of "no such thing as society".
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,289
    edited February 4
    PS

    Incidentally, the Saint Geran was just chocka with Brits. Apparently we are the main clientele for this famous hotel. And it costs about £400-£500 per night in high season (around now). These people were blowing £5000-£10,000 on a winter holiday - maybe £20,000 for entire families - and they all looked very relaxed about it.

    There are a LOT of rich Britons.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641

    Given his close connections, this is very interesting.

    Matthew d'Ancona: This Brexit mess cannot go on. Theresa May must stand down now

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/04/brexit-mess-theresa-may-tories?CMP=twt_gu

    I don’t think it’s that interesting. D’Ancona, like Parris, has lost his marbles over Brexit. No sound Tory would countenance a general election that might bring Corbyn to power, just because Theresa May is proving less than perfect in the role. We could do worse, and we will if Corbyn ever gets into Number 10.

    Not a great thread header from Mr Meeks. I know the most ardent Remainers are not happy about the result, but it is not obvious why the Conservatives should focus on them disproportionately, when they constitute a minority of the electorate. A reasonable number of Remainers will continue to vote Tory for economic reasons, and real anger over Brexit is not widespread enough to be a threat to Tory prospects nationally. It is however common in inner London, hence the unending media coverage.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 26,048
    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641

    ydoethur said:

    Annexed? ANNEXED?!!!

    It's ours, I tell you. I know those bloody French stole it in Tudor times, but it's properly English and they should never have been allowed to keep it. We should take it back, by force if need be, so they can enjoy the rights of being outside the EU and have the chance to kick out all those pesky migrants.

    (I'm practising for a gig where I have to defend Spain's claim to Gibraltar. How did I do?)
    I know.

    Dave would have won the referendum 95% to 5% if the deal included France honouring the Treaty of Troyes.

    Gibraltar is Spain's, we need to accept this, will help with the Brexit talks.

    How about giving Gibraltar to Spain on a 99 year lease, then having a referendum in Gibraltar if they'd want to join Spain?
    Surely the answer is obvious; an Act of Union between the U.K. and Spain. The language of Cervantes would sound in the halls of Westminster, while Spanish nobles could embellish the red benches. In return they would adopt the pound and the Queen.

    Where’s the downside?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    SeanT said:

    I have just returned from a punishing Times assignment in Mauritius. I can report that it is a pleasant place, with good food, lovely beaches, and some truly excellent hotels (e.g. One and Only Saint Geran).

    And there was absolutely no mention of Brexit.

    Sounds idyllic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    edited February 4

    ydoethur said:

    "The vast extent of the Roman empire was governed by absolute power, under the guidance of virtue and wisdom. The armies were restrained by the firm but gentle hand of four successive emperors, whose characters and authority commanded involuntary respect. The forms of the civil administration were carefully preserved by Nerva, Trajan, Hadrian, and the Antonines, who delighted in the image of liberty, and were pleased with considering themselves as the accountable ministers of the laws." - Edward Gibbon

    A bit different to our lot.

    It would be if it were true. However, it was written by Edward Gibbon and while I am no expert on the Five Good Emperors that doesn't quite match what I know of them. So I am assuming it is typical bombastic rhetoric from old Funky.

    (BTW it's 'different from.')
    My attempt at humour was based on the difference in tone between the eloquence of the 17th century and the informal way we talk today. It wasn't meant to be an actual comparison of the current government and that of Ancient Rome. But I like the Funky thing. Next time I quote him it will be as Edward Funky Gibbon.
    He did have quite a sense of humour Edward Gibbon. I think my favourite is his joke about Cornwall: 'why is a Cornish borough like a fat man? Neither sees its member from year to year.'
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,845
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I see 'citzens of nowhere' is becoming the 'no such thing as society' de nos jours, with righties parsing the arse out of it to distance their representative from perceived nasty partyness. Of course that ignores the fact that it's a primary job of professional pols to be clear when they mean to be and ambiguous when they mean to be. If you're pm during the largest political upheaval of the age which like it or not is giving off more than a whiff of xenophobia, popping out 'citzens of nowhere' is either dumb or whiffy.

    Thankfully we're unlikely to be analysing every word of Tessy's in 30 years time, unless Brexit turns out to be a complete, blistering clusterfcuk.

    Oh..

    Harsh. I didn't know "citizen of nowhere" had anti-Semitic form. Did you? I can't believe she did, or she wouldn't have said it: do not ascribe to malice that which can be explained as ignorance and stupidity. Her targets are rich individuals and megacorps, in the main (one of them is facebook, which I suppose is, given Mark Zuckerberg's antecedents, quite a good candidate for a worldwide Zionist conspiracy) and she is trying to tap into the anti-tax-dodging vote which gave ed mili such a boost in 2015 (and stupidly overlooking the possibility that what she says will be applied to brexit). And ironically I think the beginning of the passage is specifically designed as a rebuttal of "no such thing as society".
    Not specifically but it does have a real 'rootless cosmopolitan' ring to it. These two sentences (I know, out of context, in isolation etc) do sound absolutely terrible:

    'If you believe you are a citizen of the world, you are a citizen of nowhere. You don’t understand what citizenship means.'

    You'd have thought even Nick & Fiona might have spotted possible mantraps in those.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,289

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    The thing is this shit is getting WORSE. It's not like Labour are rooting out the fascist leftists, the anti-Semites, the frothing, balaclava-wearing militants, they are inviting them in, ceding ground, offering membership to people previously thrown out.

    Labour are diseased, and I don't see an obvious cure. The Tory problem is Brexit, but by the next election that will be over (for good or ill)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 26,048
    edited February 4
    SeanT said:

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    The thing is this shit is getting WORSE. It's not like Labour are rooting out the fascist leftists, the anti-Semites, the frothing, balaclava-wearing militants, they are inviting them in, ceding ground, offering membership to people previously thrown out.

    Labour are diseased, and I don't see an obvious cure. The Tory problem is Brexit, but by the next election that will be over (for good or ill)
    According to a Guardian column this week....its all right wing Fake News....Claire Kober wasn't bullied or threatened or anything, it is just right wing made up nonsense.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 26,048

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
    Yep.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,403
    ydoethur said:

    SeanT said:

    I have just returned from a punishing Times assignment in Mauritius. I can report that it is a pleasant place, with good food, lovely beaches, and some truly excellent hotels (e.g. One and Only Saint Geran).

    And there was absolutely no mention of Brexit.

    Sounds idyllic.
    A hotel full of braying rich spiv Brits does not sound idyllic to me , sounds like hell.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,818
    SeanT said:

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    The thing is this shit is getting WORSE. It's not like Labour are rooting out the fascist leftists, the anti-Semites, the frothing, balaclava-wearing militants, they are inviting them in, ceding ground, offering membership to people previously thrown out.

    Labour are diseased, and I don't see an obvious cure. The Tory problem is Brexit, but by the next election that will be over (for good or ill)
    It's only going to get worse when your main support in future years will be the Muslim vote.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    "The vast extent of the Roman empire was governed by absolute power, under the guidance of virtue and wisdom. The armies were restrained by the firm but gentle hand of four successive emperors, whose characters and authority commanded involuntary respect. The forms of the civil administration were carefully preserved by Nerva, Trajan, Hadrian, and the Antonines, who delighted in the image of liberty, and were pleased with considering themselves as the accountable ministers of the laws." - Edward Gibbon

    A bit different to our lot.

    It would be if it were true. However, it was written by Edward Gibbon and while I am no expert on the Five Good Emperors that doesn't quite match what I know of them. So I am assuming it is typical bombastic rhetoric from old Funky.

    (BTW it's 'different from.')
    My attempt at humour was based on the difference in tone between the eloquence of the 17th century and the informal way we talk today. It wasn't meant to be an actual comparison of the current government and that of Ancient Rome. But I like the Funky thing. Next time I quote him it will be as Edward Funky Gibbon.
    He did have quite a sense of humour Edward Gibbon. I think my favourite is his joke about Cornwall: 'why is a Cornish borough like a fat man? Neither sees its member from year to year.'
    Yes he can be very funny. Here's his comment on Pope John XXIII who was found not to live up to the job description. 'the most scandalous charges were suppressed; the vicar of Christ was only accused of piracy, murder, rape, sodomy, and incest.'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    SeanT said:

    I have just returned from a punishing Times assignment in Mauritius. I can report that it is a pleasant place, with good food, lovely beaches, and some truly excellent hotels (e.g. One and Only Saint Geran).

    And there was absolutely no mention of Brexit.

    Sounds idyllic.
    A hotel full of braying rich spiv Brits does not sound idyllic to me , sounds like hell.
    He didn't say that in his original post! Nor did he add the price tag which is considerably less idyllic...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
    Ken still hasn’t been expelled either.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 26,048
    Sandpit said:

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
    Ken still hasn’t been expelled either.
    And his case is soooooo difficult to judge. It is total he said, she said....by he said, she said, I mean he said on national news, she said are you sure you mean that, he said absolutely...AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,296
    Sandpit said:

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
    Ken still hasn’t been expelled either.
    Ken will not be expelled IMO
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,397
    IanB2 said:

    Some good points in the lead. The Tories may be the party of Brexit, but they are likely to be found severely wanting as the party best able to address the challenges that Brexit will present.

    Exactly so! This Conservative government is using Brexit as an excuse and a strategy to wreck the economy, with devastating consequences for the NHS, the education service, local government. I detect no appetite amongst the electorate for us to be sold off cheaply to the Americans, Chinese, Arabs, French etc, which seems to be Conservative policy.

    So the next general election will be fought, not so much on Brexit as such, as on all the devastation that the Conservatives have wrought.

    An despite the pessimistic tone of some PB commentators, I think the Lib Dems are gradually rebuilding their electoral base. By the next general election, we shall have a three-way choice. People will not be panicked into voting Tory again.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Sandpit said:

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
    Ken still hasn’t been expelled either.
    Ken will not be expelled IMO
    Do you think that’s a problem for the party?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,300
    edited February 4
    Does there have to be? Won't the option before them be the deal or no deal?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,300
    PClipp said:

    IanB2 said:

    Some good points in the lead. The Tories may be the party of Brexit, but they are likely to be found severely wanting as the party best able to address the challenges that Brexit will present.

    Exactly so! This Conservative government is using Brexit as an excuse and a strategy to wreck the economy, with devastating consequences for the NHS, the education service, local government. I detect no appetite amongst the electorate for us to be sold off cheaply to the Americans, Chinese, Arabs, French etc, which seems to be Conservative policy.

    So the next general election will be fought, not so much on Brexit as such, as on all the devastation that the Conservatives have wrought.

    An despite the pessimistic tone of some PB commentators, I think the Lib Dems are gradually rebuilding their electoral base. By the next general election, we shall have a three-way choice. People will not be panicked into voting Tory again.
    Preparations for government intensifying?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295

    Sandpit said:

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
    Ken still hasn’t been expelled either.
    And his case is soooooo difficult to judge. It is total he said, she said....by he said, she said, I mean he said on national news, she said are you sure you mean that, he said absolutely...AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN...
    When are moderate Labour MPs going to make a stand and stop the destruction of their once great party?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 26,048

    Sandpit said:

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
    Ken still hasn’t been expelled either.
    And his case is soooooo difficult to judge. It is total he said, she said....by he said, she said, I mean he said on national news, she said are you sure you mean that, he said absolutely...AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN...
    When are moderate Labour MPs going to make a stand and stop the destruction of their once great party?
    If you are waiting for someone like Chuka Umunna to do something, you will be waiting for hell to freeze over.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    edited February 4
    RobD said:

    Does there have to be? Won't the option before them be the deal or no deal?
    Yup, and Parliament can’t vote to bind the EU to a different deal either. If they don’t vote positively for the deal in front of them, then we leave with no deal.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,296
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
    Ken still hasn’t been expelled either.
    Ken will not be expelled IMO
    Do you think that’s a problem for the party?
    Depends if he has a) said things that are Anti Semitic he should be expelled.

    If he has been b) accused of Anti Semitism falsely he shouldn't be.

    If either a) or b) doesn't happen its obviously a problem.

    Ken is a liability as he has an obcession with Hitler not good but not sure if that passes the a) test or not.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    edited February 4

    Sandpit said:

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
    Ken still hasn’t been expelled either.
    And his case is soooooo difficult to judge. It is total he said, she said....by he said, she said, I mean he said on national news, she said are you sure you mean that, he said absolutely...AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN...
    When are moderate Labour MPs going to make a stand and stop the destruction of their once great party?
    The odds on which of these happening first are shortest:

    - the PM making a stand and saying what sort of Brexit deal she wants?
    - the rebel Brexiters making a stand by sending in their 48 letters?
    - rebel Tory remainers making a firm stand against Brexit?
    - moderate Labour MPs making a stand as above?
    - the LibDems making a stand by doing something that starts a recovery?
    - those always taking about a new centre force making a stand and launching one?
    - Farage and Banks making a stand by launching their new political movement?

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,296
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
    Ken still hasn’t been expelled either.
    And his case is soooooo difficult to judge. It is total he said, she said....by he said, she said, I mean he said on national news, she said are you sure you mean that, he said absolutely...AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN...
    When are moderate Labour MPs going to make a stand and stop the destruction of their once great party?
    The odds on which of these happening first are shortest:

    - the PM making a stand and saying what sort of Brexit deal she wants?
    - the rebel Brexiters making a stand by sending in their 48 letters?
    - rebel Tory remainers making a firm stand against Brexit?
    - moderate Labour MPs making a stand as above?
    - the LibDems making a stand by doing something that starts a recovery?
    - those always taking about a new centre force making a stand and launching one?
    - Farage and Banks making a stand by launching their new political movement?

    48 letters
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    edited February 4

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    "The vast extent of the Roman empire was governed by absolute power, under the guidance of virtue and wisdom. The armies were restrained by the firm but gentle hand of four successive emperors, whose characters and authority commanded involuntary respect. The forms of the civil administration were carefully preserved by Nerva, Trajan, Hadrian, and the Antonines, who delighted in the image of liberty, and were pleased with considering themselves as the accountable ministers of the laws." - Edward Gibbon

    A bit different to our lot.

    It would be if it were true. However, it was written by Edward Gibbon and while I am no expert on the Five Good Emperors that doesn't quite match what I know of them. So I am assuming it is typical bombastic rhetoric from old Funky.

    (BTW it's 'different from.')
    My attempt at humour was based on the difference in tone between the eloquence of the 17th century and the informal way we talk today. It wasn't meant to be an actual comparison of the current government and that of Ancient Rome. But I like the Funky thing. Next time I quote him it will be as Edward Funky Gibbon.
    He did have quite a sense of humour Edward Gibbon. I think my favourite is his joke about Cornwall: 'why is a Cornish borough like a fat man? Neither sees its member from year to year.'
    Yes he can be very funny. Here's his comment on Pope John XXIII who was found not to live up to the job description. 'the most scandalous charges were suppressed; the vicar of Christ was only accused of piracy, murder, rape, sodomy, and incest.'
    So the Pope was screwed in every possible way? :smile:

    (PS - I doubt if it was John XXIII, who was Pope in the 1950s.)

    EDIT - I think it must have been the Antipope John, calling himself John XXIII, who was the opponent of the Gregory XII.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 506

    Sandpit said:

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
    Ken still hasn’t been expelled either.
    And his case is soooooo difficult to judge. It is total he said, she said....by he said, she said, I mean he said on national news, she said are you sure you mean that, he said absolutely...AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN...
    When are moderate Labour MPs going to make a stand and stop the destruction of their once great party?
    They did - straight after the EU referendum. And they lost big time in possibly the most incompetent coup attempt in recent history.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    The Tories discover the Milo playbook.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,908
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Does there have to be? Won't the option before them be the deal or no deal?
    Yup, and Parliament can’t vote to bind the EU to a different deal either. If they don’t vote positively for the deal in front of them, then we leave with no deal.
    I suspect that if parliament voted down the deal on the eve of Brexit, then EU would vote for a short extension*, say six weeks, to allow for another General Election. If the next government was unable to pass the deal, then we'd leave without a deal.

    * This is what happened with Greece and their referendum on the terms of the Eurozone bailout.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    But, seems there is confusion:

    twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
    The fact these people are only suspended and takes months or year to make any sort of decision says a huge amount...
    Ken still hasn’t been expelled either.
    And his case is soooooo difficult to judge. It is total he said, she said....by he said, she said, I mean he said on national news, she said are you sure you mean that, he said absolutely...AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN...
    When are moderate Labour MPs going to make a stand and stop the destruction of their once great party?
    The odds on which of these happening first are shortest:

    - the PM making a stand and saying what sort of Brexit deal she wants?
    - the rebel Brexiters making a stand by sending in their 48 letters?
    - rebel Tory remainers making a firm stand against Brexit?
    - moderate Labour MPs making a stand as above?
    - the LibDems making a stand by doing something that starts a recovery?
    - those always taking about a new centre force making a stand and launching one?
    - Farage and Banks making a stand by launching their new political movement?

    To which it is easy to add:

    - Labour's leadership coming off the fence and making a stand on Brexit

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,296
    rottenborough said:
    » show previous quotes
    When are moderate Labour MPs going to make a stand and stop the destruction of their once great party?

    When are moderate Tory MPs going to make a stand and stop the destruction of their once great party?
This discussion has been closed.