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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New poll highlights the danger for Corbyn if LAB is perceived

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited February 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New poll highlights the danger for Corbyn if LAB is perceived as being pro-Brexit

The Stop Brexit pressure group Our Future Our Choice has published a YouGov poll it commissioned which suggests that LAB’s poll rating could drop from 39% to 30% if it goes into the next election backing or having backed Brexit.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,300
    First. Is there danger if he's too pro-brexit and too pro-remain?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    I should say that I’m not convinced by polls that seek to test opinion in such a way.

    Neither am I, and it remains quite possible that Corbyn will continue to get away with his attempt to have no policy on Brexit other than of course we'd do it better...

    And until the Invisible Democrats stop being invisible, and find and alternative to Great Uncle Vince, they are unlikely to benefit greatly.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200
    Vince, as someone here once said, seems as though he's never got over been 'done over' by the Torygraph over Murdoch. And the LD's in general are suffering as well, partly at least because some at least of those of us who were there in the 90's and onwards look at many of the 'achievments' of the Coalition.... and not just tuition fees ...... as decidedly illiberal. Legal Aid cutbacks are but one example.
    They also need 'something' to happen; a by election triumph would be excellent, but it's unlikely; maybe a really good set of Local Election results, or it could be as small as a really good speech in Parliament.... not a 5 minute question, but something notable.
    Plus a follow-up QT if that recovers its relevance.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,695
    Have things changed since June 2017? The first scenario happened at the election and Labour still got 40% of the vote.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,610
    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 265

    Vince, as someone here once said, seems as though he's never got over been 'done over' by the Torygraph over Murdoch. And the LD's in general are suffering as well, partly at least because some at least of those of us who were there in the 90's and onwards look at many of the 'achievments' of the Coalition.... and not just tuition fees ...... as decidedly illiberal. Legal Aid cutbacks are but one example.
    They also need 'something' to happen; a by election triumph would be excellent, but it's unlikely; maybe a really good set of Local Election results, or it could be as small as a really good speech in Parliament.... not a 5 minute question, but something notable.
    Plus a follow-up QT if that recovers its relevance.

    Not sure what the Orange team need but its a lot of good luck, actual schisms within both major parties a la Tory Eurosceptics vs real world; and an issue that gets folk really riled.......trouble is I cant see it happening.

    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Agree with the scepticism on this poll. The question spells out the parties’ BREXIT positions with much greater clarity than voters understand them - the LibDems position being least understood. As OGH notes the next election will be post BREXIT, will the LibDem position be to rejoin the EU? That might not be as (notionally) popular as not leaving.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,668

    Vince, as someone here once said, seems as though he's never got over been 'done over' by the Torygraph over Murdoch. And the LD's in general are suffering as well, partly at least because some at least of those of us who were there in the 90's and onwards look at many of the 'achievments' of the Coalition.... and not just tuition fees ...... as decidedly illiberal. Legal Aid cutbacks are but one example.
    They also need 'something' to happen; a by election triumph would be excellent, but it's unlikely; maybe a really good set of Local Election results, or it could be as small as a really good speech in Parliament.... not a 5 minute question, but something notable.
    Plus a follow-up QT if that recovers its relevance.

    The ring fencing of NHS spending caused massive issues by forcing the cuts into areas such as access to justice.

    I’d rather it wasn’t ring fenced and then we could have a rational* discussion about the appropriate level of spending and the tax necessary to support it.

    * I refused to be mugged by reality
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,668
    “Mugged by reality” led me here. Some interesting quotes - I particularly like the ones about doing good and the inherent contradictions of democratic socialism

    https://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/Irving_Kristol
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791
    Essexit said:

    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.

    It depends on geography and demography. One possibility is Labour gains in Leave areas and LD gains in Remain, Tories lose in both.

    Personally I think it will be more like June 2017, with Corbyn concentrating on Austerity. He simply is not that bothered about Europe.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,668

    Agree with the scepticism on this poll. The question spells out the parties’ BREXIT positions with much greater clarity than voters understand them - the LibDems position being least understood. As OGH notes the next election will be post BREXIT, will the LibDem position be to rejoin the EU? That might not be as (notionally) popular as not leaving.

    Possibly more interesting is the +3% that the Tories get if they can consolidate the Brexit vote behind them. That would be crucial in a close election
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 18,467
    Off-topic:

    Forget politics: today is Falcon Heavy day!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42950957

    P'haps. I'm expecting a delay - after all, it's only been seven or so years to wait ...
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 265
    Foxy said:

    Essexit said:

    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.

    It depends on geography and demography. One possibility is Labour gains in Leave areas and LD gains in Remain, Tories lose in both.

    Personally I think it will be more like June 2017, with Corbyn concentrating on Austerity. He simply is not that bothered about Europe.

    the trouble is....a lot of his Party (esp in parts of London) are..........and they are the backers/voters/organisers/ candidates he needs
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    Anna is coming!


  • Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

  • felixfelix Posts: 7,095
    Foxy said:

    Essexit said:

    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.

    It depends on geography and demography. One possibility is Labour gains in Leave areas and LD gains in Remain, Tories lose in both.

    Personally I think it will be more like June 2017, with Corbyn concentrating on Austerity. He simply is not that bothered about Europe.

    An interesting post which ignores both polls.
  • Off-topic: But 'Race-Girls'.

    I seem to remember a party-to-this-parish who objectified his partners "huge clevage". Sometimes silence is the wisest option.

    :that-is-all:
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517
    It's worth remembering just how little this issue bothers most people. Speaking personally I never gave it a second thought. In fact I was quite surprised to find that I was pro-Europe once the debate started. I hadn't even realised that the EMA, which has a big bearing on my job, was anything to do with the EU. I have a feeling both parties have a lot more leeway in what they can get away with than some folk on here suppose.

    The economy is much more important. Which means we will stay in. One way or another.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
    Very little chance of being returned as a LibDem in Broxtowe. It's a classic two-way marginal.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
    Very little chance of being returned as a LibDem in Broxtowe. It's a classic two-way marginal.
    Very true. And given the current electoral map I doubt there are many other Conservative MPs for whom a jump to the Lib Dems would look like a good career move.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
    Very little chance of being returned as a LibDem in Broxtowe. It's a classic two-way marginal.
    Very true. And given the current electoral map I doubt there are many other Conservative MPs for whom a jump to the Lib Dems would look like a good career move.
    and if there's no chance of re-election, why jump? Soubry is beyond the reach of the whips now over Brexit, so she can cause max damage/try and stop this madness* where she is.

    * delete according to your preferences
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,304



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
    The Tory idiot tendency problem seems to be very much a Northants CON MP thing

    Bone
    Hollobone
    Heaton-Harris
    Leadsom

    & from the past Mensch
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    So when people think about the next election, the Tories either do majority well - or super-majority well.

    Gawd bless yer, Mister Corbyn......
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
    The Tory idiot tendency problem seems to be very much a Northants CON MP thing

    Bone
    Hollobone
    Heaton-Harris
    Leadsom

    & from the past Mensch
    Yes that's an interesting correlation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295

    It's worth remembering just how little this issue bothers most people. Speaking personally I never gave it a second thought. In fact I was quite surprised to find that I was pro-Europe once the debate started. I hadn't even realised that the EMA, which has a big bearing on my job, was anything to do with the EU. I have a feeling both parties have a lot more leeway in what they can get away with than some folk on here suppose.

    The economy is much more important. Which means we will stay in. One way or another.

    EU doesn't bother most people. You are right - they don't give it a thought. That's why it was the height of madness to give in to Farage and hold a referendum.

    They do care about immigration though.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,121



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
    The Tory idiot tendency problem seems to be very much a Northants CON MP thing

    Bone
    Hollobone
    Heaton-Harris
    Leadsom

    & from the past Mensch
    Plus Pursglove.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,668



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
    Very little chance of being returned as a LibDem in Broxtowe. It's a classic two-way marginal.
    Very true. And given the current electoral map I doubt there are many other Conservative MPs for whom a jump to the Lib Dems would look like a good career move.
    and if there's no chance of re-election, why jump? Soubry is beyond the reach of the whips now over Brexit, so she can cause max damage/try and stop this madness* where she is.

    * delete according to your preferences
    How many tones has she voted against the government on Brexit issues?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116

    So when people think about the next election, the Tories either do majority well - or super-majority well.

    Gawd bless yer, Mister Corbyn......

    Indeed. This is a tremendous poll for the Tories.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    It's worth remembering just how little this issue bothers most people. Speaking personally I never gave it a second thought. In fact I was quite surprised to find that I was pro-Europe once the debate started. I hadn't even realised that the EMA, which has a big bearing on my job, was anything to do with the EU. I have a feeling both parties have a lot more leeway in what they can get away with than some folk on here suppose.

    The economy is much more important. Which means we will stay in. One way or another.

    But the issues which perhaps decided the Brexit vote - access to decent quality healthcare, education and jobs - do matter. May provides a leadership vacuum on domestic policy every bit as much as on Europe.
    It's probably true that the government could 'get away' with various approaches to Brexit, but that would first require their selecting one. Oppositions have the luxury of ambiguity at times; governments do not.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530
    For anyone who thinks the toe-curlingly embarrassing crap cartoon is a recent innovation by the Evening Standard

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42704341
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,610
    Foxy said:

    Essexit said:

    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.

    It depends on geography and demography. One possibility is Labour gains in Leave areas and LD gains in Remain, Tories lose in both.

    Personally I think it will be more like June 2017, with Corbyn concentrating on Austerity. He simply is not that bothered about Europe.

    It would take some very unusual seatwise results for 42/30/22 or 45/39/10 to translate into anything but a Tory majority.

    I agree with you on the second point though - if there was ever going to be a Brexit-dominated election it would have been June 2017.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
    The Tory idiot tendency problem seems to be very much a Northants CON MP thing

    Bone
    Hollobone
    Heaton-Harris
    Leadsom

    & from the past Mensch
    Strange part of the world, Northants. Those of us from the East Midlands don't consider it part of our patch. But it is too far north to be in the South either. It seems they plough their own furrow.....
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641
    This is an excellent poll for the Tories. If Labour commit to Remain, the Tories have a path back to a majority in an early election, even with May as leader.

    Yet again, Jeremy Corbyn’s political judgement trumps those of the Labour moderates.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    Best case outcome for Soubry now isn’t 20 years sulking on the back benches.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872
    So to win a majority at the next election and keep Corbyn out of No. 10 the Tories must stick to and deliver Brexit.

    Got it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
    The Tory idiot tendency problem seems to be very much a Northants CON MP thing

    Bone
    Hollobone
    Heaton-Harris
    Leadsom

    & from the past Mensch
    Strange part of the world, Northants. Those of us from the East Midlands don't consider it part of our patch. But it is too far north to be in the South either. It seems they plough their own furrow.....
    It's a surprisingly beautiful county.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Good morning, everyone.

    Brr. 'tis a cold morning. Little snow again, but again flakes.

    Grieve's 'meaningful vote' is also meaningful in that MPs will have to nail their colours to the mast.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295
    TGOHF said:

    Best case outcome for Soubry now isn’t 20 years sulking on the back benches.

    She's got to hold her marginal seat 4x to achieve that. Gonna be tough, especially if/once the Corbyn period has been and gone.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295
    RoyalBlue said:

    This is an excellent poll for the Tories. If Labour commit to Remain, the Tories have a path back to a majority in an early election, even with May as leader.

    Yet again, Jeremy Corbyn’s political judgement trumps those of the Labour moderates.

    I'm sceptical of this poll. Will EU really be the decider for under 40s in a real GE?

    I don't think so, not in the numbers seen above. Schools, NHS, uni fees etc etc.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    Off-topic:

    Forget politics: today is Falcon Heavy day!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42950957

    P'haps. I'm expecting a delay - after all, it's only been seven or so years to wait ...

    An explosion is also not entirely out of the question...as Musk has himself suggested.

    A 'Heavy' launch is said to cost around $90m, as opposed to around a billion for the as yet undeveloped NASA equivalent. Any idea what the cost of a complete loss of the vehicle would be (presumably $90m plus whatever the replacement cost of the three reusable boosters, whatever that is) ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    RoyalBlue said:

    This is an excellent poll for the Tories. If Labour commit to Remain, the Tories have a path back to a majority in an early election, even with May as leader.

    Yet again, Jeremy Corbyn’s political judgement trumps those of the Labour moderates.

    If public opinion remains split, Labour will try and remain on the fence. If public opinion swings against Brexit. Labour will follow, and the route to a Tory majority is gone.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530

    Good morning, everyone.

    Brr. 'tis a cold morning. Little snow again, but again flakes.

    Grieve's 'meaningful vote' is also meaningful in that MPs will have to nail their colours to the mast.

    OK here is some pedantry. I appreciate that this battle was lost long ago, but: what you mean is "show their colours," meaning hoist a flag which identifies them as hard or soft brexiteers. You don't usually nail a flag to anything, you tie it to a halyard and pull it to the top, and tie it off, and the process is reversible. You nail your colours to the mast precisely because that is irreversible, so what you are doing is deliberately depriving yourself of the chance to capitulate by striking your colours if things aren't going your way.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,304



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
    The Tory idiot tendency problem seems to be very much a Northants CON MP thing

    Bone
    Hollobone
    Heaton-Harris
    Leadsom

    & from the past Mensch
    Strange part of the world, Northants. Those of us from the East Midlands don't consider it part of our patch. But it is too far north to be in the South either. It seems they plough their own furrow.....
    Everything for Northants started to go wrong when the good burgers of Northampton in the 1840s decided to block the railway coming through the area. So it was by-passed with Rugby being made a main railway centre. Later it got a branch line off the West Coast Main line which means that since it has never had a main line link to London. It remains a bit cut off.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
    I have to confess that Peter Bone and I went to the same school. Not, though, at the same time. If he's an example of Old Boys, it's clearly gone downhill.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116
    Not sure if you saw my point yesterday, but Ireland have almost no power in this. Their veto of an orderly Brexit from the SM/CU might trigger a disorderly Brexit from the SM/CU.

    They have literally nothing to gain from using their veto. Its a toy veto.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,014
    Essexit said:

    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.

    I think that's correct. Also, I think Labour's optimal stance politically (leaving aside "the right thing to do", which we'll never agree on) is to support Brexit in principle but vote against whatever deal the Government comes up with and say that "this useless government has squandered whatever opportunity there was". If Brexit has nonetheless been completed, then promise to work with the EU as closely as the deal allows, without promising to rejoin in the next 5 years.

    On Anna, she's clearly signalled that she'd join a hypothetical new centrist alliance but I agree that Broxtowe wouldn't elect her as a LibDem. Conversely, my connections are not what they were, but I'd be surprised if Broxtowe Conservatives deselected her - I've not heard a single whisper that they might, even from Tory members who she'd offended (she can be abrasive to colleagues without political reasons) and used to funnel Tory canvass plans and other information to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    This poll is good news for the Tories in the sense that if Corbyn sticks to a pro Brexit but socialist position they could be back to landslide winning territory a la 1983 or 1987 on the 42% they got last June if the LD vote shoots up as a result, just as the SDP helped split the centre left vote in the 1980s.

    If Labour opposes Brexit though there would be no such LD revival and hence no Tory landslide with the Labour vote holding up but even then the Tories would have a bigger lead than 2017 possibly allowing for a small Tory majority.

    Hence it is understandable why Corbyn wants to remain on the fence on Brexit as he did at the last general election for as long as possible.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,684
    HYUFD said:

    This poll is good news for the Tories in the sense that if Corbyn sticks to a pro Brexit but socialist position they could be back to landslide winning territory a la 1983 or 1987 on the 42% they got last June if the LD vote shoots up as a result, just as the SDP helped split the centre left vote in the 1980s.

    If Labour opposes Brexit though there would be no such LD revival and hence no Tory landslide with the Labour vote holding up but even then the Tories would have a bigger lead than 2017 possibly allowing for a small Tory majority.

    Hence it is understandable why Corbyn wants to remain on the fence on Brexit as he did at the last general election for as long as possible.

    Basically this, right?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 791

    TGOHF said:

    Best case outcome for Soubry now isn’t 20 years sulking on the back benches.

    She's got to hold her marginal seat 4x to achieve that. Gonna be tough, especially if/once the Corbyn period has been and gone.
    Nah, she will not quit the Tories. She sits in its mainstream on everything but the EU. When she loses Broxtowe in 2022 it will be time to retire.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404

    So when people think about the next election, the Tories either do majority well - or super-majority well.

    Gawd bless yer, Mister Corbyn......

    I don’t know why some Tories on this site refuse to learn from the last GE.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    Essexit said:

    Foxy said:

    Essexit said:

    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.

    It depends on geography and demography. One possibility is Labour gains in Leave areas and LD gains in Remain, Tories lose in both.

    Personally I think it will be more like June 2017, with Corbyn concentrating on Austerity. He simply is not that bothered about Europe.

    It would take some very unusual seatwise results for 42/30/22 or 45/39/10 to translate into anything but a Tory majority.

    I agree with you on the second point though - if there was ever going to be a Brexit-dominated election it would have been June 2017.
    The fixation with Brexit in the next election is W-A-Y overdone. Assuming it is in 2021-22, then it will be a Past Thing - done and dusted. Those whose vote is swayed by an ongoing profound dislike of Brexit will require such people to want to punish the Government for having done as instructed by the voters. Thereby admitting to themself they are essentially anti-democratic. And quite possibly letting in Jeremy Corbyn. Now, I'm thinking the number of 2017 Tory voters who are so enraged, they are prepared to put their personal prospects, their family's prospects, the nation's prospects in the hands of Corbyn and McDonnell and their bat-shit crazy, ultra-high risk manifesto - that number is very, very small.

    Those the Tories lost in 2017? Maybe some will continue to be lost. But some others will focus on the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn, Prime Minister, in a way that they didn't in 2017 (because it was frankly never going to happen - even Labour said so). Some of them however will return to the Conservatives because Corbyn is now getting far too close to power and they were shocked at landing themselves a Labour MP last time and Labour is becoming a party of yobboes and anti-semites and, well, Brexit is a Past Thing.

    Equally, there will be very few votes flowing the other way - votes that will be cast to reward the Government for the deal they have done to implement Brexit.

    To the extent that there were voters who had invested their hopes in Corbyn stopping Brexit? Yes, Labour is somewhat exposed to "what is Labour for if it didn't stop Brexit?" - and to some of those people moving to a prone-on-their-arses posture on election day. Perhaps all the more so if, in a great gesture of magnanimity, on 31st March 2019 Theresa May is all over the news channel thanking Jeremy Corbyn for his assistance in making a smooth Brexit happen....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543

    Essexit said:

    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.

    I think that's correct. Also, I think Labour's optimal stance politically (leaving aside "the right thing to do", which we'll never agree on) is to support Brexit in principle but vote against whatever deal the Government comes up with and say that "this useless government has squandered whatever opportunity there was". If Brexit has nonetheless been completed, then promise to work with the EU as closely as the deal allows, without promising to rejoin in the next 5 years.

    On Anna, she's clearly signalled that she'd join a hypothetical new centrist alliance but I agree that Broxtowe wouldn't elect her as a LibDem. Conversely, my connections are not what they were, but I'd be surprised if Broxtowe Conservatives deselected her - I've not heard a single whisper that they might, even from Tory members who she'd offended (she can be abrasive to colleagues without political reasons) and used to funnel Tory canvass plans and other information to me.
    Lol @ Tory members unhappy with an MP who speaks against her party getting their revenge by passing information to the Labour Party!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    edited February 6

    Essexit said:

    Foxy said:

    Essexit said:

    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.



    It would take some very unusual seatwise results for 42/30/22 or 45/39/10 to translate into anything but a Tory majority.

    I agree with you on the second point though - if there was ever going to be a Brexit-dominated election it would have been June 2017.
    The fixation with Brexit in the next election is W-A-Y overdone. Assuming it is in 2021-22, then it will be a Past Thing - done and dusted. Those whose vote is swayed by an ongoing profound dislike of Brexit will require such people to want to punish the Government for having done as instructed by the voters. Thereby admitting to themself they are essentially anti-democratic. And quite possibly letting in Jeremy Corbyn. Now, I'm thinking the number of 2017 Tory voters who are so enraged, they are prepared to put their personal prospects, their family's prospects, the nation's prospects in the hands of Corbyn and McDonnell and their bat-shit crazy, ultra-high risk manifesto - that number is very, very small.

    Those the Tories lost in 2017? Maybe some will continue to be lost. But some others will focus on the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn, Prime Minister, in a way that they didn't in 2017 (because it was frankly never going to happen - even Labour said so). Some of them however will return to the Conservatives because Corbyn is now getting far too close to power and they were shocked at landing themselves a Labour MP last time and Labour is becoming a party of yobboes and anti-semites and, well, Brexit is a Past Thing.

    Equally, there will be very few votes flowing the other way - votes that will be cast to reward the Government for the deal they have done to implement Brexit.

    To the extent that there were voters who had invested their hopes in Corbyn stopping Brexit? Yes, Labour is somewhat exposed to "what is Labour for if it didn't stop Brexit?" - and to some of those people moving to a prone-on-their-arses posture on election day. Perhaps all the more so if, in a great gesture of magnanimity, on 31st March 2019 Theresa May is all over the news channel thanking Jeremy Corbyn for his assistance in making a smooth Brexit happen....
    The one factor you haven't considered is the impact of another few years of the current Tory chaos and infighting on the party's credibility and messaging (not to mention its organisation)
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404
    The trouble with this poll is that Labour did support Brexit at the last GE, and they polled at 39%, not 30%.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200
    IanB2 said:

    Essexit said:

    Foxy said:

    Essexit said:

    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.




    I agree with you on the second point though - if there was ever going to be a Brexit-dominated election it would have been June 2017.
    The fixation with Brexit in the next election is W-A-Y overdone. Assuming it is in 2021-22, then it will be a Past Thing - done and dusted. Those whose vote is swayed by an ongoing profound dislike of Brexit will require such people to want to punish the Government for having done as instructed by the voters. Thereby admitting to themself they are essentially anti-democratic. And quite possibly letting in Jeremy Corbyn. Now, I'm thinking the number of 2017 Tory voters who are so enraged, they are prepared to put their personal prospects, their family's prospects, the nation's prospects in the hands of Corbyn and McDonnell and their bat-shit crazy, ultra-high risk manifesto - that number is very, very small.

    Those the Tories lost in 2017? Maybe some will continue to be lost. But some others will focus on the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn, Prime Minister, in a way that they didn't in 2017 (because it was frankly never going to happen - even Labour said so). Some of them however will return to the Conservatives because Corbyn is now getting far too close to power and they were shocked at landing themselves a Labour MP last time and Labour is becoming a party of yobboes and anti-semites and, well, Brexit is a Past Thing.

    Equally, there will be very few votes flowing the other way - votes that will be cast to reward the Government for the deal they have done to implement Brexit.

    To the extent that there were voters who had invested their hopes in Corbyn stopping Brexit? Yes, Labour is somewhat exposed to "what is Labour for if it didn't stop Brexit?" - and to some of those people moving to a prone-on-their-arses posture on election day. Perhaps all the more so if, in a great gesture of magnanimity, on 31st March 2019 Theresa May is all over the news channel thanking Jeremy Corbyn for his assistance in making a smooth Brexit happen....
    The one factor you haven't considered is the impact of another few years of the current Tory chaos and infighting on the party's credibility and messaging (not to mention its organisation)
    MM, like HUYFD doesn't think (realise?) that the 'current Tory chaos and infighting' exist.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404
    IanB2 said:

    Essexit said:

    Foxy said:

    Essexit said:

    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.



    It would take some very unusual seatwise results for 42/30/22 or 45/39/10 to translate into anything but a Tory majority.

    I agree with you on the second point though - if there was ever going to be a Brexit-dominated election it would have been June 2017.
    Those the Tories lost in 2017? Maybe some will continue to be lost. But some others will focus on the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn, Prime Minister, in a way that they didn't in 2017 (because it was frankly never going to happen - even Labour said so). Some of them however will return to the Conservatives because Corbyn is now getting far too close to power and they were shocked at landing themselves a Labour MP last time and Labour is becoming a party of yobboes and anti-semites and, well, Brexit is a Past Thing.

    Equally, there will be very few votes flowing the other way - votes that will be cast to reward the Government for the deal they have done to implement Brexit.

    To the extent that there were voters who had invested their hopes in Corbyn stopping Brexit? Yes, Labour is somewhat exposed to "what is Labour for if it didn't stop Brexit?" - and to some of those people moving to a prone-on-their-arses posture on election day. Perhaps all the more so if, in a great gesture of magnanimity, on 31st March 2019 Theresa May is all over the news channel thanking Jeremy Corbyn for his assistance in making a smooth Brexit happen....
    The one factor you haven't considered is the impact of another few years of the current Tory chaos and infighting on the party's credibility and messaging (not to mention its organisation)
    The other matter is this Conservative fixation that one day people will wake up and see Corbyn as the anti-Christ and run into their arms.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299

    OK here is some pedantry. I appreciate that this battle was lost long ago, but: what you mean is "show their colours," meaning hoist a flag which identifies them as hard or soft brexiteers. You don't usually nail a flag to anything, you tie it to a halyard and pull it to the top, and tie it off, and the process is reversible. You nail your colours to the mast precisely because that is irreversible, so what you are doing is deliberately depriving yourself of the chance to capitulate by striking your colours if things aren't going your way.

    **********

    Absolutely fascinating nugget. Thanks for that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,014
    IanB2 said:



    Lol @ Tory members unhappy with an MP who speaks against her party getting their revenge by passing information to the Labour Party!

    Personal factors count with some activists who know the candidates more than you'd think. There were also Labour people who really liked Anna for being courageous on gay marriage, though I'm not aware of any who actually voted for her. Her problem with some members was and perhaps still is that they found her gratuitously rude to them (and felt that I was politically wrong but at least polite, a sort of reverse Rees-Mogg).

    O/T: The AfD now look as though they've definitely picked up some support since the German election, as do the Greens (though beware of INSA, whose results bearly always differ from everyone else's for some reason). The SPD and liberal FDP are fractionally down, the Left fractionally up, but no obvious big losers.

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    The trouble with this poll is that Labour did support Brexit at the last GE, and they polled at 39%, not 30%.

    Labour was non committal, promising to respect the Brexit vote and get single market and customs union equivalence and end free movement ie all things to Remain and Leave voters.

    Next time that will be more difficult, especially if post Brexit and post transition Britain is not a land of milk and honey economically but say immigration has still fallen
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404


    Yet ‘centrist’ parties aren’t doing so well....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    IanB2 said:

    Essexit said:

    Foxy said:

    Essexit said:

    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.




    I agree with you on the second point though - if there was ever going to be a Brexit-dominated election it would have been June 2017.
    The fixation with Brexit in the next election is W-A-Y overdone. Assuming it is in 2021-22, then it will be a Past Thing - done and dusted. Those whose vote is Minister, in a way that they didn't in 2017 (because it was frankly never going to happen - even Labour said so). Some of them however will return to the Conservatives because Corbyn is now getting far too close to power and they were shocked at landing themselves a Labour MP last time and Labour is becoming a party of yobboes and anti-semites and, well, Brexit is a Past Thing.

    Equally, there will be very few votes flowing the other way - votes that will be cast to reward the Government for the deal they have done to implement Brexit.

    To the extent that there were voters who had invested their hopes in Corbyn stopping Brexit? Yes, Labour is somewhat exposed to "what is Labour for if it didn't stop Brexit?" - and to some of those people moving to a prone-on-their-arses posture on election day. Perhaps all the more so if, in a great gesture of magnanimity, on 31st March 2019 Theresa May is all over the news channel thanking Jeremy Corbyn for his assistance in making a smooth Brexit happen....
    The one factor you haven't considered is the impact of another few years of the current Tory chaos and infighting on the party's credibility and messaging (not to mention its organisation)
    MM, like HUYFD doesn't think (realise?) that the 'current Tory chaos and infighting' exist.
    Over 40% are still likely to vote Tory given the alternative is Corbyn even if Boris and May and Mogg and Soubry and Gove and Grieve end up fighting each other on the Commons floor
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256



    Yet ‘centrist’ parties aren’t doing so well....

    As both parties have their base support and most centrists are voting to keep the other party out
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,201
    Can I ask a naïve question.

    Why are Labour demanding we have to stay in the single market and CU when they know it means the EU cannot allow this without us also accepting all the EU rules - basically BINO.

    Why does the BBC not put this to them?

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404
    HYUFD said:

    The trouble with this poll is that Labour did support Brexit at the last GE, and they polled at 39%, not 30%.

    Labour was non committal, promising to respect the Brexit vote and get single market and customs union equivalence and end free movement ie all things to Remain and Leave voters.

    Next time that will be more difficult, especially if post Brexit and post transition Britain is not a land of milk and honey economically but say immigration has still fallen
    If you’re respecting the voting and basically admitting that you’re leaving the single market and the customs union that is hardly non-commital.

    Labour’s strategy so far is working fairly well for them. They are still polling 40%+ after the GE, so still keeping their coalition together.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172
    I feel like the tories are placing too much faith in the Corbyn Firewall to keep them in power and are consequently indulging in being even bigger twats than normal.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010



    Yet ‘centrist’ parties aren’t doing so well....

    Many people see themselves as centrists, but in reality are quite partisan.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,553
    Though I've had very little time for politics lately one thing I've noticed when I have tuned in is how the Brexiteers are nearly always represented by people who appear eccentric bordering on loopy.

    Nearly always male and none who would look out of place in an Addams Family remake. .......Peter Bone Jacob Rees Mogg John Redwood Norman Lamont Boris Johnson Nigel Lawson Tim Martin Dominic Raab.

    Are the media bookers pro Remain or just being mischievous?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    edited February 6

    So to win a majority at the next election and keep Corbyn out of No. 10 the Tories must stick to and deliver Brexit.

    Got it.

    It would seem so. Nevertheless, the assumption behind calling the last election was that. Go hard on Brexit and the UKIPpers would flock to the Tories. They could ignore Remainers entirely. It didn't quite work out and I don't think it was all down to May's hopeless campaigning and inheritance tax. Corbyn has issues too. Disclosure: I thought the Conservative election strategy was copper-bottomed and was as surprised as anyone about the outcome.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    IanB2 said:


    The fixation with Brexit in the next election is W-A-Y overdone. Assuming it is in 2021-22, then it will be a Past Thing - done and dusted. Those whose vote is swayed by an ongoing profound dislike of Brexit will require such people to want to punish the Government for having done as instructed by the voters. Thereby admitting to themself they are essentially anti-democratic. And quite possibly letting in Jeremy Corbyn. Now, I'm thinking the number of 2017 Tory voters who are so enraged, they are prepared to put their personal prospects, their family's prospects, the nation's prospects in the hands of Corbyn and McDonnell and their bat-shit crazy, ultra-high risk manifesto - that number is very, very small.

    Those the Tories lost in 2017? Maybe some will continue to be lost. But some others will focus on the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn, Prime Minister, in a way that they didn't in 2017 (because it was frankly never going to happen - even Labour said so). Some of them however will return to the Conservatives because Corbyn is now getting far too close to power and they were shocked at landing themselves a Labour MP last time and Labour is becoming a party of yobboes and anti-semites and, well, Brexit is a Past Thing.

    Equally, there will be very few votes flowing the other way - votes that will be cast to reward the Government for the deal they have done to implement Brexit.

    To the extent that there were voters who had invested their hopes in Corbyn stopping Brexit? Yes, Labour is somewhat exposed to "what is Labour for if it didn't stop Brexit?" - and to some of those people moving to a prone-on-their-arses posture on election day. Perhaps all the more so if, in a great gesture of magnanimity, on 31st March 2019 Theresa May is all over the news channel thanking Jeremy Corbyn for his assistance in making a smooth Brexit happen....

    The one factor you haven't considered is the impact of another few years of the current Tory chaos and infighting on the party's credibility and messaging (not to mention its organisation)
    MM, like HUYFD doesn't think (realise?) that the 'current Tory chaos and infighting' exist.
    Neither seems to realise just how crazy the Conservatives currently look, slapping down those who want to look at evidence and leaving those who peddle mad conspiracy theories and show contempt for all projections.

    It's easy to see how Labour can fix its impediment with a cohort of voters (replace the leader). Indeed, the leader himself may well be ok with that at the right moment.

    It's very hard to see how the Conservatives can fix their problem with those voters who are currently opposed to them.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404
    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel like the tories are placing too much faith in the Corbyn Firewall to keep them in power and are consequently indulging in being even bigger twats than normal.

    Reminds of pre-election period, where a lot of us on here thought that Corbyn would guarantee the Tories a sizeable majority. It didn’t happen in June 2017....so people are now still convinced that it will happen....
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404
    Sean_F said:



    Yet ‘centrist’ parties aren’t doing so well....

    Many people see themselves as centrists, but in reality are quite partisan.
    That’s my thinking as well.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,610

    On Anna (snip) she can be abrasive

    Well, knock me down with a feather.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,610

    The trouble with this poll is that Labour did support Brexit at the last GE, and they polled at 39%, not 30%.

    Agree, I'm skeptical of a pool focusing all the attention on one of several issues that actually motivated people to vote.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641
    Theresa May should make it clear that if the deal is rejected in the House of Commons, there will be a General Election. That should give Soubry et al. some food for thought.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892



    The fixation with Brexit in the next election is W-A-Y overdone. Assuming it is in 2021-22, then it will be a Past Thing - done and dusted. Those whose vote is swayed by an ongoing profound dislike of Brexit will require such people to want to punish the Government for having done as instructed by the voters. Thereby admitting to themself they are essentially anti-democratic. And quite possibly letting in Jeremy Corbyn. Now, I'm thinking the number of 2017 Tory voters who are so enraged, they are prepared to put their personal prospects, their family's prospects, the nation's prospects in the hands of Corbyn and McDonnell and their bat-shit crazy, ultra-high risk manifesto - that number is very, very small.

    Those the Tories lost in 2017? Maybe some will continue to be lost. But some others will focus on the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn, Prime Minister, in a way that they didn't in 2017 (because it was frankly never going to happen - even Labour said so). Some of them however will return to the Conservatives because Corbyn is now getting far too close to power and they were shocked at landing themselves a Labour MP last time and Labour is becoming a party of yobboes and anti-semites and, well, Brexit is a Past Thing.

    Equally, there will be very few votes flowing the other way - votes that will be cast to reward the Government for the deal they have done to implement Brexit.

    To the extent that there were voters who had invested their hopes in Corbyn stopping Brexit? Yes, Labour is somewhat exposed to "what is Labour for if it didn't stop Brexit?" - and to some of those people moving to a prone-on-their-arses posture on election day. Perhaps all the more so if, in a great gesture of magnanimity, on 31st March 2019 Theresa May is all over the news channel thanking Jeremy Corbyn for his assistance in making a smooth Brexit happen....

    Brexit will only be done and dusted by the next election if the government goes for a BINO - NOW -and can carry its party with it. Otherwise it will be deep in Brexit negotiations at the next election and quite possibly in a full blown crisis.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    RoyalBlue said:

    Theresa May should make it clear that if the deal is rejected in the House of Commons, there will be a General Election. That should give Soubry et al. some food for thought.

    Talk me through the mechanism for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,014



    Yet ‘centrist’ parties aren’t doing so well....

    Interesting poll, rather bearing out the idea that Labour has greatest prospects not among the very young but the 35-54 range, especially among women. Increasingly, men lean right, almost as much as the 65+ group.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116
    edited February 6

    RoyalBlue said:

    Theresa May should make it clear that if the deal is rejected in the House of Commons, there will be a General Election. That should give Soubry et al. some food for thought.

    Talk me through the mechanism for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
    That old chestnut was destroyed by the 2017 election.

    No opposition is going to vote against a chance to have an election.

    Though I don't think it is the solution. Leave Anna be. She's loud and proud - but more out of touch with the Tory party base than ever.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,668



    Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)

    I'd be delighted if she jumped over to us (Lib Dems). She'd be a tremendous asset both in terms of substance and in raising our profile too. Her views are not a million miles from my own and not a million miles from my reasons for joining the Lib Dems. I don't think it'll happen though... and small part of me thinks it's maybe better, for the sake of the country at the moment, that the Conservatives retain at least a few good MPs such as her anyway.

    She should definitely stay and fight. Anyone who saw Peter Bone on Channel 4 last night will be well aware that the Conservative Party has a severe Complete Idiot Tendency problem. This isn't good for the country. Or the Conservatives.
    The Tory idiot tendency problem seems to be very much a Northants CON MP thing

    Bone
    Hollobone
    Heaton-Harris
    Leadsom

    & from the past Mensch
    Strange part of the world, Northants. Those of us from the East Midlands don't consider it part of our patch. But it is too far north to be in the South either. It seems they plough their own furrow.....
    Everything for Northants started to go wrong when the good burgers of Northampton in the 1840s decided to block the railway coming through the area. So it was by-passed with Rugby being made a main railway centre. Later it got a branch line off the West Coast Main line which means that since it has never had a main line link to London. It remains a bit cut off.
    St Joe and KC is a better version of that story...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Theresa May should make it clear that if the deal is rejected in the House of Commons, there will be a General Election. That should give Soubry et al. some food for thought.

    Talk me through the mechanism for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
    That old chestnut was destroyed by the 2017 election.

    No opposition is going to vote against a chance to have an election.
    It's a hung Parliament. Jeremy Corbyn may well insist on a crack at the job without an election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    .



    Yet ‘centrist’ parties aren’t doing so well....

    Yet.

    If the Conservatives continue to be as incompetent as May and as entitled as MarqueeMark's above post epitomises, then it will happen eventually.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517



    Yet ‘centrist’ parties aren’t doing so well....

    I regard myself as in the centre. My opinions are extremely moderate. However as political opinion has shifted right over my life I have found myself further and further to the left until I realised I had become moderately extreme.

    Although I don't support Corbyn as such I have been very pleased to see him succeed. That is where the left should be. He's put me back in the centre again.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,404
    Essexit said:

    The trouble with this poll is that Labour did support Brexit at the last GE, and they polled at 39%, not 30%.

    Agree, I'm skeptical of a pool focusing all the attention on one of several issues that actually motivated people to vote.
    On here there was a discussion fairly recently (shortly after the BSE survey came out) about Corbyn’s popularity with young mums, and the role of cuts in leading to mums voting Labour at the GE.

    With Brexit, IMHO it’s more about the cultural values associated with Remain or Leave that influence voting behaviours.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641

    RoyalBlue said:

    Theresa May should make it clear that if the deal is rejected in the House of Commons, there will be a General Election. That should give Soubry et al. some food for thought.

    Talk me through the mechanism for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
    Government ministers, Brexiteers and opposition MPs will easily make up the required two-thirds majority. The election would be in December.

    I’m not looking forward to it either.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 1,913
    O/T As I'm retiring in the next couple of months, I'm really glad I changed my pension pot to a cash fund on 10 Jan :)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Theresa May should make it clear that if the deal is rejected in the House of Commons, there will be a General Election. That should give Soubry et al. some food for thought.

    Talk me through the mechanism for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
    Government ministers, Brexiteers and opposition MPs will easily make up the required two-thirds majority. The election would be in December.

    I’m not looking forward to it either.
    Opposition MPs will not be supportive on this occasion. They have a direct route to power that does not require a general election.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Z, does it not still work, on the basis that their real views will become known?

    Mr. CD13, that would require them to know their arse from their elbow. Saw a little bit of the Sunday Politics, and Sarah Smith (who is no Andrew Neil) appeared not to know what McDonnell had said about Tory MPs being hounded in public. Not impressive.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Theresa May should make it clear that if the deal is rejected in the House of Commons, there will be a General Election. That should give Soubry et al. some food for thought.

    Talk me through the mechanism for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
    That old chestnut was destroyed by the 2017 election.

    No opposition is going to vote against a chance to have an election.
    It's a hung Parliament. Jeremy Corbyn may well insist on a crack at the job without an election.
    One doesn't insist on being invited to the palace.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010

    Essexit said:

    The trouble with this poll is that Labour did support Brexit at the last GE, and they polled at 39%, not 30%.

    Agree, I'm skeptical of a pool focusing all the attention on one of several issues that actually motivated people to vote.
    On here there was a discussion fairly recently (shortly after the BSE survey came out) about Corbyn’s popularity with young mums, and the role of cuts in leading to mums voting Labour at the GE.

    I think there's a good deal of truth in that. Young men are much more likely to be pro-Conservative than young women.

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641

    Essexit said:

    It seems that focusing minds on Brexit moves a small but significant chunk of voters from Labour to the Lib Dems either way and guarantees a Tory majority. Of course the election we actually had focused on Brexit relatively little and produced a result nothing like this poll. The next election will almost certainly be post--Brexit so the chances of it being dominated by the topic have to be even lower.

    I think that's correct. Also, I think Labour's optimal stance politically (leaving aside "the right thing to do", which we'll never agree on) is to support Brexit in principle but vote against whatever deal the Government comes up with and say that "this useless government has squandered whatever opportunity there was". If Brexit has nonetheless been completed, then promise to work with the EU as closely as the deal allows, without promising to rejoin in the next 5 years.

    On Anna, she's clearly signalled that she'd join a hypothetical new centrist alliance but I agree that Broxtowe wouldn't elect her as a LibDem. Conversely, my connections are not what they were, but I'd be surprised if Broxtowe Conservatives deselected her - I've not heard a single whisper that they might, even from Tory members who she'd offended (she can be abrasive to colleagues without political reasons) and used to funnel Tory canvass plans and other information to me.
    So you thought you could count on somebody who betrayed their colleagues? That doesn’t reflect very well on you either.

    Sounds as believable as Tories4Palmer, and about as effective.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116
    Blue_rog said:

    O/T As I'm retiring in the next couple of months, I'm really glad I changed my pension pot to a cash fund on 10 Jan :)

    The FTSE is actually rebounding quite well after opening, by the looks of it*

    *Though I don't have a bloomberg terminal, so am probably a bit behind...
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Theresa May should make it clear that if the deal is rejected in the House of Commons, there will be a General Election. That should give Soubry et al. some food for thought.

    Talk me through the mechanism for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
    Government ministers, Brexiteers and opposition MPs will easily make up the required two-thirds majority. The election would be in December.

    I’m not looking forward to it either.
    Opposition MPs will not be supportive on this occasion. They have a direct route to power that does not require a general election.
    Mr Meeks, you know perfectly well that political reality dictates that opposition parties cannot oppose an early election. The taunting and mockery of the government would be unending, and I don’t think you’ve looked at Jeremy Corbyn very carefully if you think he would ever turn down an opportunity to campaign against a Tory government. It’s what he lives for, and it enlivens him.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530

    Mr. Z, does it not still work, on the basis that their real views will become known?

    Mr. CD13, that would require them to know their arse from their elbow. Saw a little bit of the Sunday Politics, and Sarah Smith (who is no Andrew Neil) appeared not to know what McDonnell had said about Tory MPs being hounded in public. Not impressive.

    Probably not, because the scenario I imagine is one where you are flying the proper flag anyway (people did, except on rare occasions when they were pretending to be French as a ruse de guerre) and you send someone up the mast with a hammer and a nail. So the nailing doesn't affect the information you are putting out.

    NB, in case I sound like a bigass naval historian, my sources are Patrick O'Brian and C S Forester.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Theresa May should make it clear that if the deal is rejected in the House of Commons, there will be a General Election. That should give Soubry et al. some food for thought.

    Talk me through the mechanism for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
    Government ministers, Brexiteers and opposition MPs will easily make up the required two-thirds majority. The election would be in December.

    I’m not looking forward to it either.
    Opposition MPs will not be supportive on this occasion. They have a direct route to power that does not require a general election.
    Mr Meeks, you know perfectly well that political reality dictates that opposition parties cannot oppose an early election. The taunting and mockery of the government would be unending, and I don’t think you’ve looked at Jeremy Corbyn very carefully if you think he would ever turn down an opportunity to campaign against a Tory government. It’s what he lives for, and it enlivens him.
    You're missing the point. In a hung Parliament with the government party in such disarray that it cannot get its flagship policy through its own party, the opposition could properly insist on taking over the reins without a general election. It has no reason to co-operate with Theresa May, the more so since that would help her enforce discipline on her own party. I'd expect to hear lines like "if you can't govern, move aside and let us do the job".
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 892
    HYUFD said:

    The trouble with this poll is that Labour did support Brexit at the last GE, and they polled at 39%, not 30%.

    Labour was non committal, promising to respect the Brexit vote and get single market and customs union equivalence and end free movement ie all things to Remain and Leave voters.

    Next time that will be more difficult, especially if post Brexit and post transition Britain is not a land of milk and honey economically but say immigration has still fallen
    What? Why?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,392
    RoyalBlue said:

    Theresa May should make it clear that if the deal is rejected in the House of Commons, there will be a General Election. That should give Soubry et al. some food for thought.

    She doesn't have the power to make that clear. The best she can do is to promise to resign, or to suggest to parliament that it votes for a new election. I guess the most likely outcome of that is a new election, but who knows? Corbyn might agree to support Prime Minister Soubry...
This discussion has been closed.