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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What the proposed new boundaries would mean if Britain voted a

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited February 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What the proposed new boundaries would mean if Britain voted as in latest ICM poll

Over the next couple of years the boundaries review is going to become a major issue. The final proposals are almost there and to show the effect of them I have taken a projection, based on yesterday’s ICM poll, from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus based on the old boundaries and compared them with the new.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 62,086
    edited February 7
    Mrs May really screwed the pooch when she lost Dave’s majority.

    For this alone she deserves to be ousted.
  • Oh and primus inter pares
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370
    Tories Tories Uber Alles ;D
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487
    Back in Blighty to be greeted by a new thread. Hurrah.

    Incidentally, 'Blighty' is derived from an Indian word meaning foreigner.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Mrs May really screwed the pooch when she lost Dave’s majority.

    For this alone she deserves to be ousted.

    And be replaced by?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370
    The second seat scenario puts Vince Cable into a very strong position.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    But will the DUP vote for the boundary changes?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,487
    On topic, they need to start this all over again, based on legitimate, up-to-date electoral registers and based on however many seats MPs decide they want - although I have no problem with cutting to 500. Or cutting the Lords to zero, but that is a different topic.

    No wifi on my train, so ttfn.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Rentool, I'd heard similar to that. Sounds akin to Wales.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116

    On topic, they need to start this all over again, based on legitimate, up-to-date electoral registers and based on however many seats MPs decide they want - although I have no problem with cutting to 500. Or cutting the Lords to zero, but that is a different topic.

    No wifi on my train, so ttfn.

    What is not legitimate about the current registers?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370
    Scenario number 2 results in a hilariously weak Corbyn Government I *think*...

    A rainbow coalition of all the market reassurances.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 441
    UKIP are not going to poll 4% or anything close to it. If only because they won't have enough candidates. That will leave 2-3% to be reallocated between Tories, Labour and DNV, which will be crucial in a close election.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    Pulpstar said:

    Scenario number 2 results in a hilariously weak Corbyn Government I *think*...

    A rainbow coalition of all the market reassurances.

    Only if the Liberals vote against the Tories in a vote of confidence to put a Corbyn government in. Very doubtful. And then the Corbyn government would be entirely dependent on the Liberals for their programme: bang goes ending tuition fees and nationalisation.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    The main reason that the system now seems to favour the Tories as opposed to Labour is Scotland where Labour has gone from an extremely efficient vote that produced a very high number of MPs per vote to an extremely inefficient vote where a still significant number of votes produced 7 MPs (and 1 in 2015). They got 717k votes in Scotland in 2017 so that was over 100k votes per MP, a disastrous performance.
    If we got back to the situation where there were, say, 40 Labour MPs from Scotland for, say, 800K votes then they would be getting an MP for every 20k votes and the "favouring" of the Tories would disappear.

    This level of recovery seems unlikely to me but it is far from impossible. There are now a remarkable number of Labour/SNP marginals.

    Politics seems to be stuck at the moment but are we really likely to see the major parties as close again as we did in 2017? If not, then one party or the other is likely to get a bigger "winners bonus" than either got in 2017.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    Looks like another 5 glorious years of Con+DUP rule.

    Net +3 gain for the SNP looks optimistic ..
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,063
    edited February 7
    Is it me or are the two tables the wrong way around?
    never mind - and thank you to DavidL and sandpit
  • Mrs May really screwed the pooch when she lost Dave’s majority.

    For this alone she deserves to be ousted.

    And be replaced by?
    Jeremy Hunt.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    edited February 7
    Anorak said:

    Is it me or are the two tables the wrong way around?

    Don’t think so. The first one is the prediction based on the new boundaries and 600 seats, the second on the existing boundaries and 650 seats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    edited February 7
    Anorak said:

    Is it me or are the two tables the wrong way around?

    No, the first table is based on 600 and the second on 650.

    Sorry, only got the edit when I refreshed.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    HHemmelig said:

    UKIP are not going to poll 4% or anything close to it. If only because they won't have enough candidates. That will leave 2-3% to be reallocated between Tories, Labour and DNV, which will be crucial in a close election.

    There must be a chance that Ukip don't field any candidates.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,192

    Mrs May really screwed the pooch when she lost Dave’s majority.

    For this alone she deserves to be ousted.

    And be replaced by?
    Jeremy Hunt.

    Knowing your luck, it would be JRM.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    TGOHF said:

    HHemmelig said:

    UKIP are not going to poll 4% or anything close to it. If only because they won't have enough candidates. That will leave 2-3% to be reallocated between Tories, Labour and DNV, which will be crucial in a close election.

    There must be a chance that Ukip don't field any candidates.
    Certainly matching the 1.9% they got last time looks an extremely tall order. Of course next weeks leader might prove to be a star.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    HHemmelig said:

    UKIP are not going to poll 4% or anything close to it. If only because they won't have enough candidates. That will leave 2-3% to be reallocated between Tories, Labour and DNV, which will be crucial in a close election.

    There must be a chance that Ukip don't field any candidates.
    Certainly matching the 1.9% they got last time looks an extremely tall order. Of course next weeks leader might prove to be a star.
    Without the Russian bots and Mr Bank's cash plus MEP funds - are they even a viable entity in 2022 in a post Brexit world ?

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,063
    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:

    Is it me or are the two tables the wrong way around?

    No, the first table is based on 600 and the second on 650.

    Sorry, only got the edit when I refreshed.
    I'll forgive you this once :)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,334
    I have every reason to believe that the Boundary Review proposals will be rejected. One they are, there's a chance that an amending piece of legislation will be proposed to (1) retain 650 MPs and (2) realign the boundary review cycle with the electoral cycle. If that is proposed and passed, there's a good chance that whatever it comes up with will be approved.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,646

    I have every reason to believe that the Boundary Review proposals will be rejected. One they are, there's a chance that an amending piece of legislation will be proposed to (1) retain 650 MPs and (2) realign the boundary review cycle with the electoral cycle. If that is proposed and passed, there's a good chance that whatever it comes up with will be approved.

    How quickly would new boundaries be put in place in that scenario?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,234

    I have every reason to believe that the Boundary Review proposals will be rejected. One they are, there's a chance that an amending piece of legislation will be proposed to (1) retain 650 MPs and (2) realign the boundary review cycle with the electoral cycle. If that is proposed and passed, there's a good chance that whatever it comes up with will be approved.

    That's already been proposed:

    https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2017-19/parliamentaryconstituenciesamendment.html
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,334
    stevef said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scenario number 2 results in a hilariously weak Corbyn Government I *think*...

    A rainbow coalition of all the market reassurances.

    Only if the Liberals vote against the Tories in a vote of confidence to put a Corbyn government in. Very doubtful. And then the Corbyn government would be entirely dependent on the Liberals for their programme: bang goes ending tuition fees and nationalisation.
    Minor parties will invariably vote against the large party that's just lost MPs at the last election - and especially so if that party is in government. I think they'd justify that by saying that Labour had 'earned their chance', which might be genuinely what they believed but I doubt that the prospect of picking up load of soft-left votes from Labour in office would be entirely absent from their minds.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,234

    I have every reason to believe that the Boundary Review proposals will be rejected. One they are, there's a chance that an amending piece of legislation will be proposed to (1) retain 650 MPs and (2) realign the boundary review cycle with the electoral cycle. If that is proposed and passed, there's a good chance that whatever it comes up with will be approved.

    How quickly would new boundaries be put in place in that scenario?
    The Private Members' Bill I linked to (which looks fairly likely to be the compromise if the extant review is rejected) calls for the Boundary Commission to report by October 2020.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370
    stevef said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scenario number 2 results in a hilariously weak Corbyn Government I *think*...

    A rainbow coalition of all the market reassurances.

    Only if the Liberals vote against the Tories in a vote of confidence to put a Corbyn government in. Very doubtful. And then the Corbyn government would be entirely dependent on the Liberals for their programme: bang goes ending tuition fees and nationalisation.
    He'd be in Government, as to whether he'd be able to implement any of his "ideas" - fortunately very little on the above arithmetic.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,646
    edited February 7
    Pulpstar said:

    stevef said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scenario number 2 results in a hilariously weak Corbyn Government I *think*...

    A rainbow coalition of all the market reassurances.

    Only if the Liberals vote against the Tories in a vote of confidence to put a Corbyn government in. Very doubtful. And then the Corbyn government would be entirely dependent on the Liberals for their programme: bang goes ending tuition fees and nationalisation.
    He'd be in Government, as to whether he'd be able to implement any of his "ideas" - fortunately very little on the above arithmetic.
    The rag-bag of parties supporting the government wouldn't agree on very much, but they could do a lot of damage with the things they could agree on, notably spending even more than we already spend, and damaging taxes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    HHemmelig said:

    UKIP are not going to poll 4% or anything close to it. If only because they won't have enough candidates. That will leave 2-3% to be reallocated between Tories, Labour and DNV, which will be crucial in a close election.

    There must be a chance that Ukip don't field any candidates.
    Certainly matching the 1.9% they got last time looks an extremely tall order. Of course next weeks leader might prove to be a star.
    Without the Russian bots and Mr Bank's cash plus MEP funds - are they even a viable entity in 2022 in a post Brexit world ?

    You are going to be in the position of those who "volunteer" to stand having to fund their own deposits in the pretty confident expectation of losing the money. I am not saying that there are not some who would do that but it sure won't be 300+.
  • The problem the Cons have in getting the changes through are there are 3 categories of MP losing out:

    MPs whose seats disappear altogether - e.g. Priti Patel
    MPs whose seats survive but are flipped - e.g. Boris's seat would have a Lab maj of 1,000
    MPs whose seats survive but with a sharply reduced majority - e.g. Bob Stewart's Beckenham goes from 15k majority to 2k

    The first category should be the easiest as they can be moved to seats where the MP is retiring. The second and third are harder as moving them could potentially lead to accusations of chicken running and Con MPs who are already in marginal seats may complain, if someone else gets to move to a safe seat and they don't.

    I'll be interested to see what Lab does. I've said before that Corbyn should push to accept the boundary changes as it would be an opportunity to get rid of anti-Corbyn MPs
  • ABLAABLABLAABL Posts: 7
    The issue with Northern Ireland looks as though it has been resolved and the DUP remains the top party in the province.

    Disagree on this, there is a backlash from Nationalist voters now. One town, Dungiven, has been divided between two (technically almost three) constituencies...

    https://www.derryjournal.com/news/boundary-commission-plan-to-split-dungiven-in-two-1-8361746
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,033
    Pulpstar said:

    stevef said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scenario number 2 results in a hilariously weak Corbyn Government I *think*...

    A rainbow coalition of all the market reassurances.

    Only if the Liberals vote against the Tories in a vote of confidence to put a Corbyn government in. Very doubtful. And then the Corbyn government would be entirely dependent on the Liberals for their programme: bang goes ending tuition fees and nationalisation.
    He'd be in Government, as to whether he'd be able to implement any of his "ideas" - fortunately very little on the above arithmetic.
    Seems to me 'being in government' would be a key gain for Labour even if they couldn't do much because of parliamentary arithmetic.

    It would enable Labour to go into the GE with Mr Corbyn in post as PM - which would do wonders for the way people perceived him. Sitting PMs almost always do better in the poll questions about 'Who would make the better PM?', don't they?

    On the boundaries issue - are they still going for the Devonwall constituency that causes such dismay?

    Good afternoon, everybody.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641
    Why will these boundaries by rejected? Somebody said on here that the latest proposals for Northern Ireland are much better for the DUP, so with the support of the Tories it should pass. Those grumpy about losing seats can be given knighthoods or peerages.

    Can the House of Lords stop it? Would they?
  • This country is going to hell in a handcart, some people need a sense of humour.

    A controversial innuendo-laden Christmas advertising campaign from Poundland has been banned.

    The retailer's "Elf Behaving Badly" campaign has been deemed irresponsible and likely to cause widespread offence by the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA).

    Poundland posted a series of images on its Twitter and Facebook pages of an elf toy in a number of sexualised poses, including playing strip poker and sitting in a tub with naked dolls.

    The retailer made headlines in the run-up to Christmas when tea company Twinings accused it of "misusing" its product after Poundland tweeted a picture of an elf dangling a Twinings teabag over a female doll, simulating a sex act.

    https://news.sky.com/story/poundlands-controversial-naughty-elf-christmas-ad-campaign-banned-11239730
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,234
    Oh my. The BBC have really done it this time :p
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,334
    RoyalBlue said:

    Why will these boundaries by rejected? Somebody said on here that the latest proposals for Northern Ireland are much better for the DUP, so with the support of the Tories it should pass. Those grumpy about losing seats can be given knighthoods or peerages.

    Can the House of Lords stop it? Would they?

    "with the support of the Tories". Which is unlikely, AIUI. There are bigger battles for the whips to fight.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

    Mr. Eagles, did you see the handwringing over a tennis lady's thigh being seen, leading to (after one complaint) the ad being verboten?

    Daft as the painting being taken down by Manchester Art Gallery, or the puritanical axing of darts and grid girls (protest about that on 10 February but I don't imagine much'll come of it).

    All started with that bedwetting banning of a healthy women being featured on a tube advert.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370
    As for the UKIP vote, at the last GE there was a weak (And highly variable) relationship between swing and ex kipper vote.

    0.935x + 16.6 (The line of best fit gave a pro Tory swing at 16.6% ex Kipper vote), however the r^2 was only 0.435.

    One of the more stunning results for Labour in terms of pure swing and ex Kipper vote was East Worthing and Shoreham where on the surface it looks like Sophie Cook utterly smashed it amongst ex Kippers for Labour.

    Both the Thanets were good results for Labour too, as was Hartlepool.

    Seats with a decent Labour -> Tory swing with low Kipper numbers is dominated by Lib Dem -Tory contests with the exception of Hallam but the same dynamic of leave Lib Dems heading back to the Tories was wot won it for Labour there.

    Westmorland and Lonsdale; Sheffield Hallam, Thornbury and Yate, Lewes, Brecon and Radnorshire are all in the bottom right of the graph !
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    Mrs May really screwed the pooch when she lost Dave’s majority.

    For this alone she deserves to be ousted.

    And be replaced by?
    Jeremy Hunt.
    Wouldn't object. Trouble is he'd be destroyed by 2022, so who would stop Corbyn?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,334
    edited February 7

    I have every reason to believe that the Boundary Review proposals will be rejected. One they are, there's a chance that an amending piece of legislation will be proposed to (1) retain 650 MPs and (2) realign the boundary review cycle with the electoral cycle. If that is proposed and passed, there's a good chance that whatever it comes up with will be approved.

    How quickly would new boundaries be put in place in that scenario?
    I was trying to think that through. I'm not sure it'd be doable within this parliament. The final reports will be submitted in (or by) September, so the vote will be late this year. Any revising legislation is therefore unlikely to be on the statue book before Spring 2019. As it takes about two years to run a review if it goes through the usual consultation cycles, that'd be cutting it very tight before the 2022 election. I wouldn't be surprised if the first scheduled review in any new process didn't begin until after the 2022GE.

    Edit - although the Bill currently going through parliament puts a limit of October 2020 on the new Review it mandates.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    DavidL said:

    There are now a remarkable number of Labour/SNP marginals.

    I suspect Mr Gravity will continue to do his work on the SNP and the Scottish government. Weak economic performance (partly their fault) and poor academic attainment (largely their fault) will keep on wearing away.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,334

    I have every reason to believe that the Boundary Review proposals will be rejected. One they are, there's a chance that an amending piece of legislation will be proposed to (1) retain 650 MPs and (2) realign the boundary review cycle with the electoral cycle. If that is proposed and passed, there's a good chance that whatever it comes up with will be approved.

    That's already been proposed:

    https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2017-19/parliamentaryconstituenciesamendment.html
    Cheers. I knew it was in the offing - I hadn't seen that it had been acted on.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    It will be interesting to see how this goes but it looks like a win win scenario for Sadiq Khan at the moment: https://news.sky.com/story/john-worboys-victims-win-bid-to-challenge-his-release-in-judicial-review-11240136

    I found the decision by the CPS not to prosecute him for more offences and the decision of the Home Office not to seek to review the decision themselves remarkable. Khan's positioning on this is likely to cut him a lot of slack on Law and Order when he stands for re-election.
  • AnneJGP said:

    Pulpstar said:

    stevef said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scenario number 2 results in a hilariously weak Corbyn Government I *think*...

    A rainbow coalition of all the market reassurances.

    Only if the Liberals vote against the Tories in a vote of confidence to put a Corbyn government in. Very doubtful. And then the Corbyn government would be entirely dependent on the Liberals for their programme: bang goes ending tuition fees and nationalisation.
    He'd be in Government, as to whether he'd be able to implement any of his "ideas" - fortunately very little on the above arithmetic.
    Seems to me 'being in government' would be a key gain for Labour even if they couldn't do much because of parliamentary arithmetic.

    It would enable Labour to go into the GE with Mr Corbyn in post as PM - which would do wonders for the way people perceived him. Sitting PMs almost always do better in the poll questions about 'Who would make the better PM?', don't they?

    On the boundaries issue - are they still going for the Devonwall constituency that causes such dismay?

    Good afternoon, everybody.
    Bideford, Bude and Launceston. There's no way round a Devonwall constituency with 600 MPs as Cornwall is entitled to 5.5 seats
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,334
    ABLAABL said:

    The issue with Northern Ireland looks as though it has been resolved and the DUP remains the top party in the province.

    Disagree on this, there is a backlash from Nationalist voters now. One town, Dungiven, has been divided between two (technically almost three) constituencies...

    https://www.derryjournal.com/news/boundary-commission-plan-to-split-dungiven-in-two-1-8361746

    And who is going to put that point for them in Westminster?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,234

    I have every reason to believe that the Boundary Review proposals will be rejected. One they are, there's a chance that an amending piece of legislation will be proposed to (1) retain 650 MPs and (2) realign the boundary review cycle with the electoral cycle. If that is proposed and passed, there's a good chance that whatever it comes up with will be approved.

    That's already been proposed:

    https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2017-19/parliamentaryconstituenciesamendment.html
    Cheers. I knew it was in the offing - I hadn't seen that it had been acted on.
    As you can imagine I am trying to keep on top of this!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494

    DavidL said:

    There are now a remarkable number of Labour/SNP marginals.

    I suspect Mr Gravity will continue to do his work on the SNP and the Scottish government. Weak economic performance (partly their fault) and poor academic attainment (largely their fault) will keep on wearing away.
    The one thing that has been predictable about Scottish politics in the last 7-8 years is its unpredictability but a Labour Westminster recovery does look a pretty solid bet at the moment. Mr Gravity may also have something to say about the Icarus like performances of the Scottish Conservatives of course.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    Surely the answer to this, except in the case of dual citizenship with another Member State, must be "no"?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see how this goes but it looks like a win win scenario for Sadiq Khan at the moment: https://news.sky.com/story/john-worboys-victims-win-bid-to-challenge-his-release-in-judicial-review-11240136

    I found the decision by the CPS not to prosecute him for more offences and the decision of the Home Office not to seek to review the decision themselves remarkable. Khan's positioning on this is likely to cut him a lot of slack on Law and Order when he stands for re-election.

    Given the reporters description of him on WATO 'grey haired, stooped, looking much older than his sixty years' I wondered if terminal illness was a factor in the Parole Board's decision.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,527

    Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

    Mr. Eagles, did you see the handwringing over a tennis lady's thigh being seen, leading to (after one complaint) the ad being verboten?

    Daft as the painting being taken down by Manchester Art Gallery, or the puritanical axing of darts and grid girls (protest about that on 10 February but I don't imagine much'll come of it).

    All started with that bedwetting banning of a healthy women being featured on a tube advert.

    Good publicity stunt by Manchester Art Gallery.
  • DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see how this goes but it looks like a win win scenario for Sadiq Khan at the moment: https://news.sky.com/story/john-worboys-victims-win-bid-to-challenge-his-release-in-judicial-review-11240136

    I found the decision by the CPS not to prosecute him for more offences and the decision of the Home Office not to seek to review the decision themselves remarkable. Khan's positioning on this is likely to cut him a lot of slack on Law and Order when he stands for re-election.

    Given the reporters description of him on WATO 'grey haired, stooped, looking much older than his sixty years' I wondered if terminal illness was a factor in the Parole Board's decision.
    My friend in these matters thinks his appearance is a side effect of chemical castration.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. L, yes and no. I do agree he'll get a PR boost out of it, but with stabbings and acid attacks on the rise, I'm not sure that'll transform crime and punishment into a positive for Khan.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Song, taken in isolation, perhaps. Taken alongside the other actions included in my post, it's part of a prudish campaign of puritanical tosh.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see how this goes but it looks like a win win scenario for Sadiq Khan at the moment: https://news.sky.com/story/john-worboys-victims-win-bid-to-challenge-his-release-in-judicial-review-11240136

    I found the decision by the CPS not to prosecute him for more offences and the decision of the Home Office not to seek to review the decision themselves remarkable. Khan's positioning on this is likely to cut him a lot of slack on Law and Order when he stands for re-election.

    Given the reporters description of him on WATO 'grey haired, stooped, looking much older than his sixty years' I wondered if terminal illness was a factor in the Parole Board's decision.
    I have absolutely no problem with him dying in prison, chemically castrated or not.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,289
    I don't think it will happen, but it is possible these endless reports will eventually have an eroding effect on Leave opinion.

    What will TMay do if, at the end of February 2019, British voters are polling 60/40 or even 65/35 in favour of REMAIN?

    Would she really pull the trigger? Commit electoral suicide? Or ask for an "extension to A50" and slowly back-pedal?

    It is not impossible.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see how this goes but it looks like a win win scenario for Sadiq Khan at the moment: https://news.sky.com/story/john-worboys-victims-win-bid-to-challenge-his-release-in-judicial-review-11240136

    I found the decision by the CPS not to prosecute him for more offences and the decision of the Home Office not to seek to review the decision themselves remarkable. Khan's positioning on this is likely to cut him a lot of slack on Law and Order when he stands for re-election.

    Given the reporters description of him on WATO 'grey haired, stooped, looking much older than his sixty years' I wondered if terminal illness was a factor in the Parole Board's decision.
    I have absolutely no problem with him dying in prison, chemically castrated or not.
    There’s a very simple question that needs asking.

    If John Worboys isn’t worthy of a life sentence, then who is?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 26,048
    A row has broken out over the screening of a film that advocates therapy to "cure" people from being gay.

    Christian group Core Issues Trust had hired a screen at Vue Piccadilly, London, to show the film "Voices of the Silenced" on Thursday.

    The documentary tells the stories of 15 people "emerging out of homosexual lifestyles" and aims to "preserve and promote teachings on sexual ethics".

    But Vue cancelled the booking after the event drew criticism.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42974961
  • SeanT said:

    I don't think it will happen, but it is possible these endless reports will eventually have an eroding effect on Leave opinion.

    What will TMay do if, at the end of February 2019, British voters are polling 60/40 or even 65/35 in favour of REMAIN?

    Would she really pull the trigger? Commit electoral suicide? Or ask for an "extension to A50" and slowly back-pedal?

    It is not impossible.
    She could offer a referendum on the deal.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    Not many Conservative seats in the north east or Northern Ireland. If turkeys voted for Christmas, they can't complain too much about paxo suppositories.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Very shoddy reporting - does not make clear over what time frame this hit to GDP would be:

    https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-northern-ireland-and-north-east-england-gdp-revealed-in-new-brexit-impact-papers-leak-11240254
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    It will be interesting to see how this goes but it looks like a win win scenario for Sadiq Khan at the moment: https://news.sky.com/story/john-worboys-victims-win-bid-to-challenge-his-release-in-judicial-review-11240136

    I found the decision by the CPS not to prosecute him for more offences and the decision of the Home Office not to seek to review the decision themselves remarkable. Khan's positioning on this is likely to cut him a lot of slack on Law and Order when he stands for re-election.

    Given the reporters description of him on WATO 'grey haired, stooped, looking much older than his sixty years' I wondered if terminal illness was a factor in the Parole Board's decision.
    I have absolutely no problem with him dying in prison, chemically castrated or not.
    There’s a very simple question that needs asking.

    If John Worboys isn’t worthy of a life sentence, then who is?
    Is the simple question not when will our incompetent politicians stop mucking about with our criminal justice system for the sake of a cheap headline? If he had not had the potential life sentence of an indeterminate sentence hanging over him the punishment period of 8 years would surely have successfully been challenged and, in all probability, doubled. If so we would not be in this mess.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,289
    edited February 7
    ....

    Moreover, if the public suddenly swang behind REMAIN, there would be a serious temptation for a Tory PM to follow the voter mood. Because it would screw Labour, as they would then be the only party led by a hardcore Leaver: Jeremy Corbyn, a man who has never changed his mind about anything.

    A piquant possibility. Though of course the split in the Tories would be vicious, too.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,063

    A row has broken out over the screening of a film that advocates therapy to "cure" people from being gay.

    Christian group Core Issues Trust had hired a screen at Vue Piccadilly, London, to show the film "Voices of the Silenced" on Thursday.

    The documentary tells the stories of 15 people "emerging out of homosexual lifestyles" and aims to "preserve and promote teachings on sexual ethics".

    But Vue cancelled the booking after the event drew criticism.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42974961

    Fair enough. They've made a commercial decision that screening it would negatively impact their brand and earnings.

    If the nutjobs feel the need to spread their lunacy, they can always put it on youtube.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. T, requires a referendum. If we stay in without one, the ensuing atmosphere would make the current polarisation look like a picnic.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    SeanT said:

    ....

    Moreover, if the public suddenly swang behind REMAIN, there would be a serious temptation for a Tory PM to follow the voter mood. Because it would then leave Labour as the only party led by a hardcore Leaver: Jeremy Corbyn, a man who has never changed his mind about anything.

    A piquant possibility.

    Not going to happen. Leave voters accepted there was some economic risk - but did not base their decision on economics - so all this Remain stuff banging on about economics is just repeating the same argument expecting a different answer.

    https://leftfootforward.org/2018/02/as-remainers-we-cant-win-the-brexit-debate-solely-on-economics/
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,063
    edited February 7
    SeanT said:

    ....

    Moreover, if the public suddenly swang behind REMAIN, there would be a serious temptation for a Tory PM to follow the voter mood. Because it would screw Labour, as they would then be the only party led by a hardcore Leaver: Jeremy Corbyn, a man who has never changed his mind about anything.

    A piquant possibility. Though of course the split in the Tories would be vicious, too.

    Yes we'd have a new party: the Real Conservatives. The current party could (thankfully) jettison the headbangers and tack back to the centre ground. A win on the basis of being the only [proper] party seeking to remain would be followed by the disintegration of the RCs in the same way as we've seen UKIP collapse.

    I can but dream...
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,289

    Mr. T, requires a referendum. If we stay in without one, the ensuing atmosphere would make the current polarisation look like a picnic.

    Yes, I agree with that, and with TSE. A second referendum would be the obvious way out of the dilemma.


    But the shift in public opinion would have to be pretty dramatic. Which in turn means something dramatic and scary would have to happen in the economy - e.g. Japanese carmakers saying they were quitting Brexit Britain entirely
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,063
    edited February 7

    SeanT said:

    ....

    Moreover, if the public suddenly swang behind REMAIN, there would be a serious temptation for a Tory PM to follow the voter mood. Because it would then leave Labour as the only party led by a hardcore Leaver: Jeremy Corbyn, a man who has never changed his mind about anything.

    A piquant possibility.

    Not going to happen. Leave voters accepted there was some economic risk - but did not base their decision on economics - so all this Remain stuff banging on about economics is just repeating the same argument expecting a different answer.

    https://leftfootforward.org/2018/02/as-remainers-we-cant-win-the-brexit-debate-solely-on-economics/
    Bullshit. Foreigners taking our jobs is solely an economic argument. When it becomes evident that booting out people with a funny accent doesn't bring prosperity and work, you don't think they'll change their mind?

    Or are you now claiming that the leave vote was built on prejudice and xenophobia?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,289

    SeanT said:

    ....

    Moreover, if the public suddenly swang behind REMAIN, there would be a serious temptation for a Tory PM to follow the voter mood. Because it would then leave Labour as the only party led by a hardcore Leaver: Jeremy Corbyn, a man who has never changed his mind about anything.

    A piquant possibility.

    Not going to happen. Leave voters accepted there was some economic risk - but did not base their decision on economics - so all this Remain stuff banging on about economics is just repeating the same argument expecting a different answer.

    https://leftfootforward.org/2018/02/as-remainers-we-cant-win-the-brexit-debate-solely-on-economics/
    I tend to agree, but see my prior post. It is not entirely impossible. Big frightening things can change minds. If Honda and Nissan said Right, we're off, Brexit sucks, all the factories are moving to Turkey, what would that do?

    The chances of this are small but not minuscule.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    I cannot recall an example of where the result of a general election has been the similar to what the polls said it would be at this stage of a parliament.

    Governments -especially Tory governments -tend to do better than what they are polling at this stage of a parliament. Miliband and Kinnock were both in double digit leads before losing on general election day. For Corbyn to be level pegging and slightly behind is very bad news.

    Since polling began,no opposition has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead between elections. Add to that a new Tory leader, a better Tory manifesto, Brexit done and dusted, Corbyn being 73, a Tory campaign much more brutal and a forensic taking apart of Labour's economic policies, older people coming out to vote in droves, and I think Labour's chances of forming a government so long as Corbyn is leader are very remote indeed whatever the boundaries.

    And remember too the self denying phrophecy rule of British politics. The more something is predicted to happen, the less likely it is to come true. The more a Labour government is predicted, the less likely it is to happen. Labour is heading for a very famous defeat in 2022 indeed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Anorak, the freedom to govern ourselves rather than being subject to QMV has nothing to do with 'foreigners taking our jobs'.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,192

    If we panic and go back into the EU now, we would effectively be finished as an independent country.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Anorak said:

    SeanT said:

    ....

    Moreover, if the public suddenly swang behind REMAIN, there would be a serious temptation for a Tory PM to follow the voter mood. Because it would then leave Labour as the only party led by a hardcore Leaver: Jeremy Corbyn, a man who has never changed his mind about anything.

    A piquant possibility.

    Not going to happen. Leave voters accepted there was some economic risk - but did not base their decision on economics - so all this Remain stuff banging on about economics is just repeating the same argument expecting a different answer.

    https://leftfootforward.org/2018/02/as-remainers-we-cant-win-the-brexit-debate-solely-on-economics/
    Bullshit. Foreigners taking our jobs is solely an economic argument. When it becomes evident that booting out people with a funny accent doesn't bring prosperity and work, you don't think they'll change their mind?

    Or are you now claiming that the leave vote was built on prejudice and xenophobia?
    I'm taking it you didn't read:

    We can now reveal just how difficult to shift the Leave vote is – even in the face of economic calamity. BMG Research polling for Best for Britain and Left Foot Forward shows:

    When asked whether ‘prices going up significantly’ would make people switch from Leave to Remain, just 7% of Leave voters said it would change their view

    We asked if ‘the national economy going into a recession’ would change their view. Just 9% of Leave voters said it would

    Even when asked if they’d change support if their ‘personal finances [got] worse’, again only 7% said they would switch to Remain

    The figure rises to 11% when asked their view if the ‘NHS [was] damaged / worse off as a result’ of Brexit: 11% of Leave voters would back halting Brexit

    All of this goes to show that people – rightly or wrongly – view Brexit as an issue of values, not of rigid economic projections.


    Up to you.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370
    Sunderland voters were particularly cavalier during the EU ref I felt with the Nissan factory being there and all, but then again they must have felt the benefits of voting to leave the EU outweighed the costs ^_~
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    SeanT said:

    ....

    Moreover, if the public suddenly swang behind REMAIN, there would be a serious temptation for a Tory PM to follow the voter mood. Because it would screw Labour, as they would then be the only party led by a hardcore Leaver: Jeremy Corbyn, a man who has never changed his mind about anything.

    A piquant possibility. Though of course the split in the Tories would be vicious, too.

    But the impact isnt asymettric - that's why a deal will be done.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-autos-britain/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-of-jobs-over-hard-brexit-study-idUKKBN1F0138

    "BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called “hard Brexit” involving tariffs and a lasting devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed."

    Like a hard Irish border, nobody wants a high tarrif Brexit - and hence not very likely.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    ....

    Moreover, if the public suddenly swang behind REMAIN, there would be a serious temptation for a Tory PM to follow the voter mood. Because it would then leave Labour as the only party led by a hardcore Leaver: Jeremy Corbyn, a man who has never changed his mind about anything.

    A piquant possibility.

    Not going to happen. Leave voters accepted there was some economic risk - but did not base their decision on economics - so all this Remain stuff banging on about economics is just repeating the same argument expecting a different answer.

    https://leftfootforward.org/2018/02/as-remainers-we-cant-win-the-brexit-debate-solely-on-economics/
    I tend to agree, but see my prior post. It is not entirely impossible. Big frightening things can change minds. If Honda and Nissan said Right, we're off, Brexit sucks, all the factories are moving to Turkey, what would that do?

    The chances of this are small but not minuscule.

    What may happen is 7 -10 years from now Honda/Nissan will not invest in their plants here and gradually wind them down - although why Nissan would want to close their most productive plant on the planet is anyone's guess.....
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,063

    Anorak said:

    SeanT said:

    ....

    Moreover, if the public suddenly swang behind REMAIN, there would be a serious temptation for a Tory PM to follow the voter mood. Because it would then leave Labour as the only party led by a hardcore Leaver: Jeremy Corbyn, a man who has never changed his mind about anything.

    A piquant possibility.

    Not going to happen. Leave voters accepted there was some economic risk - but did not base their decision on economics - so all this Remain stuff banging on about economics is just repeating the same argument expecting a different answer.

    https://leftfootforward.org/2018/02/as-remainers-we-cant-win-the-brexit-debate-solely-on-economics/
    Bullshit. Foreigners taking our jobs is solely an economic argument. When it becomes evident that booting out people with a funny accent doesn't bring prosperity and work, you don't think they'll change their mind?

    Or are you now claiming that the leave vote was built on prejudice and xenophobia?
    I'm taking it you didn't read:

    We can now reveal just how difficult to shift the Leave vote is – even in the face of economic calamity. BMG Research polling for Best for Britain and Left Foot Forward shows:

    When asked whether ‘prices going up significantly’ would make people switch from Leave to Remain, just 7% of Leave voters said it would change their view

    We asked if ‘the national economy going into a recession’ would change their view. Just 9% of Leave voters said it would

    Even when asked if they’d change support if their ‘personal finances [got] worse’, again only 7% said they would switch to Remain


    The figure rises to 11% when asked their view if the ‘NHS [was] damaged / worse off as a result’ of Brexit: 11% of Leave voters would back halting Brexit

    All of this goes to show that people – rightly or wrongly – view Brexit as an issue of values, not of rigid economic projections.


    Up to you.
    You've just proven that a change in economics would swing the vote, and agreed that the main cause of the last vote was bigotry. Well done. *slow hand clap*
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,289


    If we panic and go back into the EU now, we would effectively be finished as an independent country.

    Pretty much, yes.

    I'm not advocating it. I'm just speculating on the chances, as is only right on a political betting website.

    I'd be interested in PB-ers opinions: how big would the shift to REMAIN need to be, to scare the government into rowing back on Brexit?

    I reckon 60/40 REMAIN would just about do it. 70/30 REMAIN (very unlikely, of course) would finish Brexit completely, and swiftly. The PM would call a 2nd referendum, REMAIN would canter home.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,063

    Mr. Anorak, the freedom to govern ourselves rather than being subject to QMV has nothing to do with 'foreigners taking our jobs'.

    I'm sure the residents of Hartlepool and Sunderland spent long hours debating the finer points of QMV while deciding which way to vote.

    Sheesh.
  • Very shoddy reporting - does not make clear over what time frame this hit to GDP would be:

    https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-northern-ireland-and-north-east-england-gdp-revealed-in-new-brexit-impact-papers-leak-11240254

    Faisal Islam slipped in a 12 year period. Just shows how news can be manipulated to scare people and fit Sky's agenda. Just be honest and caveat the information that forecasts can be wrong and how can anyone forecast 12 years ahead..


    However, I think there is sufficient evidence to show the public are not persuaded
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    I'm sure if you modelled nuclear war between the EU and the Uk - another scenario neither side wants or is aiming for - then the impact on GDP isn't great either.

    Shrugs.

  • SeanT said:


    If we panic and go back into the EU now, we would effectively be finished as an independent country.

    Pretty much, yes.

    I'm not advocating it. I'm just speculating on the chances, as is only right on a political betting website.

    I'd be interested in PB-ers opinions: how big would the shift to REMAIN need to be, to scare the government into rowing back on Brexit?

    I reckon 60/40 REMAIN would just about do it. 70/30 REMAIN (very unlikely, of course) would finish Brexit completely, and swiftly. The PM would call a 2nd referendum, REMAIN would canter home.

    Forget the polling, we'd need something like a massive general strike for the government to take notice.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    SeanT said:

    ....

    Moreover, if the public suddenly swang behind REMAIN, there would be a serious temptation for a Tory PM to follow the voter mood. Because it would then leave Labour as the only party led by a hardcore Leaver: Jeremy Corbyn, a man who has never changed his mind about anything.

    A piquant possibility.

    Not going to happen. Leave voters accepted there was some economic risk - but did not base their decision on economics - so all this Remain stuff banging on about economics is just repeating the same argument expecting a different answer.

    https://leftfootforward.org/2018/02/as-remainers-we-cant-win-the-brexit-debate-solely-on-economics/
    Bullshit. Foreigners taking our jobs is solely an economic argument. When it becomes evident that booting out people with a funny accent doesn't bring prosperity and work, you don't think they'll change their mind?

    Or are you now claiming that the leave vote was built on prejudice and xenophobia?
    I'm taking it you didn't read:

    We can now reveal just how difficult to shift the Leave vote is – even in the face of economic calamity. BMG Research polling for Best for Britain and Left Foot Forward shows:

    When asked whether ‘prices going up significantly’ would make people switch from Leave to Remain, just 7% of Leave voters said it would change their view

    We asked if ‘the national economy going into a recession’ would change their view. Just 9% of Leave voters said it would

    Even when asked if they’d change support if their ‘personal finances [got] worse’, again only 7% said they would switch to Remain


    The figure rises to 11% when asked their view if the ‘NHS [was] damaged / worse off as a result’ of Brexit: 11% of Leave voters would back halting Brexit

    All of this goes to show that people – rightly or wrongly – view Brexit as an issue of values, not of rigid economic projections.


    Up to you.
    You've just proven that a change in economics would swing the vote, and agreed that the main cause of the last vote was bigotry. Well done. *slow hand clap*
    Very intelligent. Well done.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Anorak, it's that smooth, persuasive style that led Remain to such an epic victory in the referendum.

    Mr. NorthWales, Faisal Islam's a daft sod, wilfully exaggerating economic data (0.1% spike in inflation) whenever it suits him.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995

    Very shoddy reporting - does not make clear over what time frame this hit to GDP would be:

    https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-northern-ireland-and-north-east-england-gdp-revealed-in-new-brexit-impact-papers-leak-11240254

    Faisal Islam slipped in a 12 year period. Just shows how news can be manipulated to scare people and fit Sky's agenda. Just be honest and caveat the information that forecasts can be wrong and how can anyone forecast 12 years ahead..


    However, I think there is sufficient evidence to show the public are not persuaded
    I'd be interested to see how new post Brexit innovation from the Uk - of which there will be many - were factored in.

    People and business adapt - and thrive - and innovate. The chicken licken's of remain are frightened of tomorrow.
  • SeanT said:


    If we panic and go back into the EU now, we would effectively be finished as an independent country.

    Pretty much, yes.

    I'm not advocating it. I'm just speculating on the chances, as is only right on a political betting website.

    I'd be interested in PB-ers opinions: how big would the shift to REMAIN need to be, to scare the government into rowing back on Brexit?

    I reckon 60/40 REMAIN would just about do it. 70/30 REMAIN (very unlikely, of course) would finish Brexit completely, and swiftly. The PM would call a 2nd referendum, REMAIN would canter home.

    Forget the polling, we'd need something like a massive general strike for the government to take notice.
    The Nation's mood will only become apparent once the real detail comes out throughout the summer.

    Anything else is the ebb and flow of entrenched posotions as demonstrated on here daily
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,547
    A big issue with the new proposed boundaries is that they have to be drawn with an electorate size only a plus or minus 5% away from the average electorate number. Previously it was 10%.

    This has meant obvious coherent communities having to be split up. In the South East where the population has grown sufficiently that existing constituencies meet the enlarged electorate number (with 50 fewer constituencies), they are still having to be unnecessarily split up because of a domino effect from the odd neighbouring constituency being too big to squeeze into the 5% variation.

    Also the Boundary Commission has been constrained by constituencies not being allowed to cross EU election region boundaries - despite Brexit.
  • Mr. Anorak, it's that smooth, persuasive style that led Remain to such an epic victory in the referendum.

    Mr. NorthWales, Faisal Islam's a daft sod, wilfully exaggerating economic data (0.1% spike in inflation) whenever it suits him.

    He is one of many in Sky
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995

    Mr. Anorak, it's that smooth, persuasive style that led Remain to such an epic victory in the referendum.

    Mr. NorthWales, Faisal Islam's a daft sod, wilfully exaggerating economic data (0.1% spike in inflation) whenever it suits him.

    What ever happened to Ed Conway of Sky - has he moved on ? He struck me as a Remainer type.

    Famously spent an entire pre-budget exclusive interview with George Os asking him if he travelled first class on the train or not.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 346
    edited February 7

    SeanT said:


    If we panic and go back into the EU now, we would effectively be finished as an independent country.

    Pretty much, yes.

    I'm not advocating it. I'm just speculating on the chances, as is only right on a political betting website.

    I'd be interested in PB-ers opinions: how big would the shift to REMAIN need to be, to scare the government into rowing back on Brexit?

    I reckon 60/40 REMAIN would just about do it. 70/30 REMAIN (very unlikely, of course) would finish Brexit completely, and swiftly. The PM would call a 2nd referendum, REMAIN would canter home.

    Forget the polling, we'd need something like a massive general strike for the government to take notice.
    A general strike would be dismissed as "saboteurs" and "frustrating the will of the people".

    It will take two large foreign-owned companies withdrawing. Might be Nissan, might be a city firm.

    That will start the panic.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. NorthWales, broadcast news generally has massively declined in the last couple of years. Andrew Neil and Tim Marshal are seen increasingly rarely, Sky's got Faisal Islam, and ITV's Paul Brand is sopping wet (after Grenfell he said it raised questions about the kind of country we are and even who governs us. Later, he had a propaganda piece promoting the idea of lower entry grades for Oxbridge for those from less well-off backgrounds).
This discussion has been closed.