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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa’s Tories take a 4 point lead with YouGov – their best

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited February 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa’s Tories take a 4 point lead with YouGov – their best position in any poll since GE2017

Times

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Comments

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 265
    First: this leaves the locals looking very interesting ......Lab need to start managing expectations, if the Tories find an acceptable middle candidate it could be tricky for the reds.. Maybe those younger Tory MPs may be in with a chance - still dont think JRM is the man.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    This is puzzling.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    Third! Like the LibDens. NHS not so much in the news? That or random noise.
  • This poll appears to be totally at odds with the mess the Tories appear to be making of Brexit - perhaps Public Opinion is lagging behind what is happening in the real world. May has a very feeble grip as regards her own position, being sustained only by Tory MPs' fears about who might follow her.
    I'd need a lot more convincing (and a few more similar polls) before I'd believe the Tory lead suggested by YouGov in these findings.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638


    I'd need a lot more convincing (and a few more similar polls) before I'd believe the Tory lead suggested by YouGov in these findings.

    The pattern of a drop for LAB, a move to CON and an increase in the LD share has been seen in the last three polls from ICM, Survation, and now YouGov.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652
    A party whose leaders openly associate with anti-Semites and other members of the fascist hard left, while backing any cause or regime - however violent, despotic and cruel - as long as it is anti-West, and supporting a Brexit millions of its erstwhile supporters oppose is unlikely to be soaring to large opinion poll leads, however incompetent and divided its opponent may be. And they don’t get much more incompetent and divided than the current government.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652

    This poll appears to be totally at odds with the mess the Tories appear to be making of Brexit - perhaps Public Opinion is lagging behind what is happening in the real world. May has a very feeble grip as regards her own position, being sustained only by Tory MPs' fears about who might follow her.
    I'd need a lot more convincing (and a few more similar polls) before I'd believe the Tory lead suggested by YouGov in these findings.

    The Tories are a shambolic mess, but Labour is unelectable. The country is in a very bad place.

  • And in same poll - right to leave EU - 43 (+3) - wrong - 44 (-2)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638

    And in same poll - right to leave EU - 43 (+3) - wrong - 44 (-2)

    What does Mr Glenn say? The trend is your friend. Maybe not today.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652

    And in same poll - right to leave EU - 43 (+3) - wrong - 44 (-2)

    What does Mr Glenn say? The trend is your friend. Maybe not today.

    And in same poll - right to leave EU - 43 (+3) - wrong - 44 (-2)

    What does Mr Glenn say? The trend is your friend. Maybe not today.

    In the poll 59% now believe the government is doing a bad job of negotiating Brexit. There’s certainly a trend there, too!

  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,300

    And in same poll - right to leave EU - 43 (+3) - wrong - 44 (-2)

    What does Mr Glenn say? The trend is your friend. Maybe not today.

    And in same poll - right to leave EU - 43 (+3) - wrong - 44 (-2)

    What does Mr Glenn say? The trend is your friend. Maybe not today.

    In the poll 59% now believe the government is doing a bad job of negotiating Brexit. There’s certainly a trend there, too!

    Probably influenced by the relentlessly negative coverage. ;)
  • And in same poll - right to leave EU - 43 (+3) - wrong - 44 (-2)

    What does Mr Glenn say? The trend is your friend. Maybe not today.

    And in same poll - right to leave EU - 43 (+3) - wrong - 44 (-2)

    What does Mr Glenn say? The trend is your friend. Maybe not today.

    In the poll 59% now believe the government is doing a bad job of negotiating Brexit. There’s certainly a trend there, too!

    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652

    And in same poll - right to leave EU - 43 (+3) - wrong - 44 (-2)

    What does Mr Glenn say? The trend is your friend. Maybe not today.

    And in same poll - right to leave EU - 43 (+3) - wrong - 44 (-2)

    What does Mr Glenn say? The trend is your friend. Maybe not today.

    In the poll 59% now believe the government is doing a bad job of negotiating Brexit. There’s certainly a trend there, too!

    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    It could well be. But it is a strong indicator of who will get the blame if Brexit does go wrong.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Signs starting to show that the Brexit wars have little cut through outside the media bubble?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652
    Sandpit said:

    Signs starting to show that the Brexit wars have little cut through outside the media bubble?

    A drift from Labour to LD might indicate otherwise. Some of the more committed Remain supporters are beginning to notice that the Labour leadership is committed to Brexit.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652
    Dura_Ace said:



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.

    Given that 18 months in the government has yet to decide on what kind of Brexit it wants, the only surprise is that 22% of those polled think it’s doing a good negotiating job. They are certainly very well represented on PB!!

  • felixfelix Posts: 7,095

    Dura_Ace said:



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.

    Given that 18 months in the government has yet to decide on what kind of Brexit it wants, the only surprise is that 22% of those polled think it’s doing a good negotiating job. They are certainly very well represented on PB!!

    I think this is difficult. The government has divisions yes but also wants to play cards close to its chest. Result: media goes wild on a daily basis while the public goes meh ! And to be fair May herself has been consistent on the general approach. We're heading for softish Brexit I believe so I'm content.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872
    This probably couldn't come at a better time for Theresa.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872
    On topic, I wouldn't call this dramatic. This is a very small change, and probably still MoE, but with several other polls showing very small improvements for the Tories we can perhaps say that the Conservative position is resilient, whilst Corbyn might potentially have started to go off the boil.

    But, who knows.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 26,638
    R4 leading on the anti-Semitic Soros story..
  • Dura_Ace said:



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.

    Given that 18 months in the government has yet to decide on what kind of Brexit it wants, the only surprise is that 22% of those polled think it’s doing a good negotiating job. They are certainly very well represented on PB!!

    Obviously the intention of the Brexit coverage is to do for the Tories - that is a given.

    However, the meme which is being very effectively established is that doing Brexit IS difficult. However, that does not mean it is perceived as being wrong but it does mean that it is understood by most thinking electors that the government might be doing a poor job but that it is doing the best that can be done. (Especially with the muttonheaded hostility of the self serving wannabe establishment.)

    Narrow opportunism is eventually seen for what it is and 90% of comments from the left have been using Brexit as a stick to beat the government, never saying anything constructive - I exclude Keir Starmer and to a lesser extent Jeremy Corbyn from this.

    For the local elections, which are restricted to a narrow more partisan turnout than real elections the anti-government is likely to be exaggerated compared with the electorate as a whole. They are likely to be very polarised.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652

    R4 leading on the anti-Semitic Soros story..

    It’s a pretty big deal that the PM’s former adviser is citing far right Eastern European anti-Semites in his takedown of Soros. It’s all very Breitbart and adds a layer or two to that whole citizens of nowhere meme. She is well shot of him. But ...

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652

    Dura_Ace said:



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.

    Given that 18 months in the government has yet to decide on what kind of Brexit it wants, the only surprise is that 22% of those polled think it’s doing a good negotiating job. They are certainly very well represented on PB!!

    Obviously the intention of the Brexit coverage is to do for the Tories - that is a given.

    However, the meme which is being very effectively established is that doing Brexit IS difficult. However, that does not mean it is perceived as being wrong but it does mean that it is understood by most thinking electors that the government might be doing a poor job but that it is doing the best that can be done. (Especially with the muttonheaded hostility of the self serving wannabe establishment.)

    Narrow opportunism is eventually seen for what it is and 90% of comments from the left have been using Brexit as a stick to beat the government, never saying anything constructive - I exclude Keir Starmer and to a lesser extent Jeremy Corbyn from this.

    For the local elections, which are restricted to a narrow more partisan turnout than real elections the anti-government is likely to be exaggerated compared with the electorate as a whole. They are likely to be very polarised.

    How on earth is the government not the establishment????

  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,921
    May the force be with you as voters turn away from the dark side ....

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,877

    This poll appears to be totally at odds with the mess the Tories appear to be making of Brexit - perhaps Public Opinion is lagging behind what is happening in the real world. May has a very feeble grip as regards her own position, being sustained only by Tory MPs' fears about who might follow her.
    I'd need a lot more convincing (and a few more similar polls) before I'd believe the Tory lead suggested by YouGov in these findings.

    The Tories are a shambolic mess, but Labour is unelectable. The country is in a very bad place.

    The LDs ought to be taking advantage but they seem to be stuck in single figures.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 25,652
    edited February 8
    AndyJS said:

    This poll appears to be totally at odds with the mess the Tories appear to be making of Brexit - perhaps Public Opinion is lagging behind what is happening in the real world. May has a very feeble grip as regards her own position, being sustained only by Tory MPs' fears about who might follow her.
    I'd need a lot more convincing (and a few more similar polls) before I'd believe the Tory lead suggested by YouGov in these findings.

    The Tories are a shambolic mess, but Labour is unelectable. The country is in a very bad place.

    The LDs ought to be taking advantage but they seem to be stuck in single figures.

    It could just be that we are at the start of something with the LDs. There are a lot of committed Remainers who voted Labour in June, but who are now beginning to realise Corbyn is as pro-Brexit as Jacob Rees Mogg. They will not vote Labour again - unless the next Tory leader is one of the Brexit loons like Boris or the Moggster himself.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872
    JackW said:

    May the force be with you as voters turn away from the dark side ....

    JCWNBPM?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,673
    There could be a recognition of the following.

    Split, argumentative, passionate is better than
    Split, silent, insincerity, opportunistic.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    edited February 8
    Although I suspect this is MOE and not particularly meaningful, if is interesting to consider what Labour might do if it drops back in the polls (what the Tories might do in similar circumstances being relatively obvious). Had the MPs not failed to remove Corbyn before, they would surely try again, but there are so many more obstacles in their path now. And, as yesterday's article made clear, coming off Labour's Brexit fence in either direction carries risks.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    There does seem a clear, albeit modest, shift in the polls. This undoubtedly consolidates May's position which in the longer run might not be good news for the Tories.

    It is a remarkable development in the face of the most relentlessly negative media coverage that I can remember since the dog days of Major. That media coverage is focussed on Brexit and it is clearly having an effect on the perception of the government's competence in dealing with it, albeit it does not seem to be shifting many leavers to remainers. if May and Davis do come up with a half decent Brexit deal that the Tories can consolidate around Labour are in serious trouble. Big if though.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369
    philiph said:

    There could be a recognition of the following.

    Split, argumentative, passionate is better than
    Split, silent, insincerity, opportunistic.

    On that theme, is it perhaps not so much that Theresa May is seen as better than Corbyn but as better than Jacob Rees-Mogg and other assorted Conservatives who have (unlike their Labour counterparts) been in the news lately?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995

    And in same poll - right to leave EU - 43 (+3) - wrong - 44 (-2)

    Voters tiring of constant EU threats ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    Dura_Ace said:



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.
    Could ?

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,673

    philiph said:

    There could be a recognition of the following.

    Split, argumentative, passionate is better than
    Split, silent, insincerity, opportunistic.

    On that theme, is it perhaps not so much that Theresa May is seen as better than Corbyn but as better than Jacob Rees-Mogg and other assorted Conservatives who have (unlike their Labour counterparts) been in the news lately?
    Labour allowing the Tories to be both government and opposition may not be a good move?

    Labour are leaving the Tories to self destruct and depriving themselves of the publicity?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641
    edited February 8
    I know I’m boring you all but this poll reinforces my gut feeling. The nation has far more time and patience for Theresa May and acceptance that Brexit is difficult than our trivia-obsessed overwhelmingly Remain media. She is a good person doing her best in incredibly difficult circumstances. She will neither decide on a major policy on a whim, like her predecessor,
    nor does she feel that she has divine sanction to launch wars of choice, like Tony Blair. Hang in there Theresa.

    I also note that OGH can’t bring himself to mention the essential dead heat in the Brexit right or wrong question in the thread header. The 6-point gap was clearly an outlier.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    felix said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.

    Given that 18 months in the government has yet to decide on what kind of Brexit it wants, the only surprise is that 22% of those polled think it’s doing a good negotiating job. They are certainly very well represented on PB!!

    I think this is difficult. The government has divisions yes but also wants to play cards close to its chest. Result: media goes wild on a daily basis while the public goes meh ...
    This is absurd.
    Prevaricating is not the same thing as playing cards close to your chest. Those who have to make investment decisions based on what happens next year still have nothing to go on.
    The government's own assessments published this week show the possibility of massive hits to the UK's car industry (look at the forecasts for the North East and West Midlands under FTA or WTO conditions...)

    Yes, it is possible that everything might just turn out OK, but it is at least equally possible that it could be dire. And up until now we have barely engaged in negotiations.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 498
    edited February 8

    R4 leading on the anti-Semitic Soros story..

    It’s a pretty big deal that the PM’s former adviser is citing far right Eastern European anti-Semites in his takedown of Soros. It’s all very Breitbart and adds a layer or two to that whole citizens of nowhere meme. She is well shot of him. But ...

    It is entirely in line with use of the phrase "citizens of nowhere", alias "rootless cosmopolitan". The xenophobic British press and Tory party clearly see George Soros as a major public enemy in the same way as Victor Orban et al. They have probably never forgiven him for Black Wednesday.

    Oddly, Fidesz is a member of the EPP rather than the European Conservatives and Reformists group (which is led by the Tories and the equally xenophobic Polish Law and Justice party) in the EU parliament.
  • A party whose leaders openly associate with anti-Semites and other members of the fascist hard left, while backing any cause or regime - however violent, despotic and cruel - as long as it is anti-West, and supporting a Brexit millions of its erstwhile supporters oppose is unlikely to be soaring to large opinion poll leads, however incompetent and divided its opponent may be. And they don’t get much more incompetent and divided than the current government.

    Yup
  • So it appears a cab ride from Stanmore to Rochdale is a bit more pricey than I'd bargained for... it is past MK it seems. BBC it is... watching beach football in the winter.
  • MetatronMetatron Posts: 111
    Who actually is wasting their money on paying pollsters at this point in the election cycle?
    Cynically maybe this one is by people who want May to stay PM
  • Metatron said:

    Who actually is wasting their money on paying pollsters at this point in the election cycle?
    Cynically maybe this one is by people who want May to stay PM

    Labour moderates paying for it?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    What are the figures on 'would make best PM' ?
    Is Don't Know still in the lead ?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172
    RoyalBlue said:

    clearly an outlier.

    Whatever the latin for this is should be embroidered on the official PB.com blazer badges. Beneath three bookies' biros mounted fesswise.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    edited February 8

    Metatron said:

    Who actually is wasting their money on paying pollsters at this point in the election cycle?
    Cynically maybe this one is by people who want May to stay PM

    Labour moderates paying for it?
    Bad opinion polls won't shift Corbyn. After all, they didn't when he was 28 points adrift so a piffling four points ain't gonna make his followers see the Jezziah has no clothes.

    Only a second election defeat will do, and for that they need a change of leader in the Tories. Some duff polls for the Government, showing double digit leads for Labour would do nicely.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Good morning, everyone.

    Whilst nice for the blues I suspect this is just statistical noise. Have to see how the next few polls look.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,714
    As the nation embraces May, will she be tempted to go to the country?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,368
    Jonathan said:

    As the nation embraces May, will she be tempted to go to the country?

    Its more loathe Corbyn than embrace May
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,095
    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.

    Given that 18 months in the government has yet to decide on what kind of Brexit it wants, the only surprise is that 22% of those polled think it’s doing a good negotiating job. They are certainly very well represented on PB!!

    I think this is difficult. The government has divisions yes but also wants to play cards close to its chest. Result: media goes wild on a daily basis while the public goes meh ...
    This is absurd.
    Prevaricating is not the same thing as playing cards close to your chest. Those who have to make investment decisions based on what happens next year still have nothing to go on.
    The government's own assessments published this week show the possibility of massive hits to the UK's car industry (look at the forecasts for the North East and West Midlands under FTA or WTO conditions...)

    Yes, it is possible that everything might just turn out OK, but it is at least equally possible that it could be dire. And up until now we have barely engaged in negotiations.
    Most arguments one doesn't like are 'absurd'. Then they can more easily be ignored. It was made clear from the start that there'd be no blow by blow account on a daily basis. But May has been very consistent and it annoys the 'remainers' who want ammunition to reverse a democratic vote. Like me you need to be patient and suck it up. Obviously you'll find poll frustrating. Rather like the referendum result and the postponed armageddon, it is what it is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    edited February 8
    So May to outlast Corbyn as party leader?

    I've (at length) been saying that:

    a) Corbyn is Brexit's Bezzy Mate, so

    b) he's not going for a second referendum meaning

    c) a sizeable chunk of his supporters are sussing him out - and in turn, will be blaming him as they see Brexit actually happening. What's the point of being the Jezziah if you won't even stop Brexit?

    A gnarled old Labour hand told me a while back "It'll be Brexit as does for Corbyn...." Once the tide of polling starts falling back, once it is clear Labour are going to lose yet ANOTHER election with him at the helm....the voices will start murmering. "'E's got to go, tha knows...."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    How? Why?

    But as noted, even if such a poll shift is accurate and sustained, it's not like it affects either of the big two. Labour Will Ignore bad polls For the obvious reasons given the GE, and the tories are too divided to be healed by encouraging polls.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    Dura_Ace said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    clearly an outlier.

    Whatever the latin for this is should be embroidered on the official PB.com blazer badges. Beneath three bookies' biros mounted fesswise.

    Such blazer badge not sewn on. Nailed on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281

    Dura_Ace said:



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.

    Given that 18 months in the government has yet to decide on what kind of Brexit it wants, the only surprise is that 22% of those polled think it’s doing a good negotiating job. They are certainly very well represented on PB!!

    Obviously the intention of the Brexit coverage is to do for the Tories - that is a given.

    However, the meme which is being very effectively established is that doing Brexit IS difficult. However, that does not mean it is perceived as being wrong but it does mean that it is understood by most thinking electors that the government might be doing a poor job but that it is doing the best that can be done. (Especially with the muttonheaded hostility of the self serving wannabe establishment.)

    Narrow opportunism is eventually seen for what it is and 90% of comments from the left have been using Brexit as a stick to beat the government, never saying anything constructive - I exclude Keir Starmer and to a lesser extent Jeremy Corbyn from this.

    For the local elections, which are restricted to a narrow more partisan turnout than real elections the anti-government is likely to be exaggerated compared with the electorate as a whole. They are likely to be very polarised.

    How on earth is the government not the establishment????

    Indeed. We had the same odd line in the EU ref from various people, and of course various veteran politicians in the US claiming to be outsiders during the primaries.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    Scott_P said:
    How many jobs have been added to the UK economy since you left office, George?

    #WorkForEveryone
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281
    Jonathan said:

    As the nation embraces May, will she be tempted to go to the country?

    Heehee. I think we can all agree she will hope never to go to them again.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    ydoethur said:

    Metatron said:

    Who actually is wasting their money on paying pollsters at this point in the election cycle?
    Cynically maybe this one is by people who want May to stay PM

    Labour moderates paying for it?
    Bad opinion polls won't shift Corbyn. After all, they didn't when he was 28 points adrift so a piffling four points ain't gonna make his followers see the Jezziah has no clothes.

    Only a second election defeat will do, and for that they need a change of leader in the Tories. Some duff polls for the Government, showing double digit leads for Labour would do nicely.
    Morning, ydoether.
    What do you make of the 'less stress through more exams' idea ...?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 25
    I assume this is noise, as people aren't really thinking about an election right now? Even in the case of a "snap" election, polls without an election looming in the public mind are more just feelings towards parties than VI.

    I would like to suggest, though, that the Tories will likely underperform this at the upcoming local elections. I think LDs will make better gains in local Tory held seats than they have a chance at possibly doing nationally, and I don't know how much Corbyn becomes a weight on your local council candidate if he's knocked on your door a few times and done a middling to good campaign.

    I'd expect the locals to be a better snapshot of where the public really stand, although I am not willing to really put figures on who does well where. Just a thought that LDs will make gains at expense of Tories in the south, Labour will make gains from Tories in the south and north, Tories won't do as well as people might think. (I know in my leafy 'burb, f'rinstance, that the biggest issue for voters on the door is NHS and doctors; something Tories do not win votes on)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,553

    A party whose leaders openly associate with anti-Semites and other members of the fascist hard left, while backing any cause or regime - however violent, despotic and cruel - as long as it is anti-West, and supporting a Brexit millions of its erstwhile supporters oppose is unlikely to be soaring to large opinion poll leads, however incompetent and divided its opponent may be. And they don’t get much more incompetent and divided than the current government.

    None of that is new. The header sounds about right to me. Remove Labour's USP-being the party of Remain-and what have you got left but an aging old Trot leading a party with some out-dated ideas.

    It's also worth noting that Theresa May in comparison to the nutters who surround her is shining relatively brightly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.

    Given that 18 months in the government has yet to decide on what kind of Brexit it wants, the only surprise is that 22% of those polled think it’s doing a good negotiating job. They are certainly very well represented on PB!!

    I think this is difficult. The government has divisions yes but also wants to play cards close to its chest. Result: media goes wild on a daily basis while the public goes meh ...
    This is absurd.
    Prevaricating is not the same thing as playing cards close to your chest. Those who have to make investment decisions based on what happens next year still have nothing to go on.
    The government's own assessments published this week show the possibility of massive hits to the UK's car industry (look at the forecasts for the North East and West Midlands under FTA or WTO conditions...)

    Yes, it is possible that everything might just turn out OK, but it is at least equally possible that it could be dire. And up until now we have barely engaged in negotiations.
    Most arguments one doesn't like are 'absurd'. Then they can more easily be ignored. It was made clear from the start that there'd be no blow by blow account on a daily basis. But May has been very consistent and it annoys the 'remainers' who want ammunition to reverse a democratic vote. Like me you need to be patient and suck it up. Obviously you'll find poll frustrating. Rather like the referendum result and the postponed armageddon, it is what it is.
    You are quite right; May has been exceptionally consistent in putting off any important decision until the last possible minute.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,527

    So May to outlast Corbyn as party leader?

    I've (at length) been saying that:

    a) Corbyn is Brexit's Bezzy Mate, so

    b) he's not going for a second referendum meaning

    c) a sizeable chunk of his supporters are sussing him out - and in turn, will be blaming him as they see Brexit actually happening. What's the point of being the Jezziah if you won't even stop Brexit?

    A gnarled old Labour hand told me a while back "It'll be Brexit as does for Corbyn...." Once the tide of polling starts falling back, once it is clear Labour are going to lose yet ANOTHER election with him at the helm....the voices will start murmering. "'E's got to go, tha knows...."

    The Labour voters may turn against Corbyn, the Labour MPs may want to try yet again to get rid of him, but will Momentum and the hundreds of thousands of Labour members?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,403
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Metatron said:

    Who actually is wasting their money on paying pollsters at this point in the election cycle?
    Cynically maybe this one is by people who want May to stay PM

    Labour moderates paying for it?
    Bad opinion polls won't shift Corbyn. After all, they didn't when he was 28 points adrift so a piffling four points ain't gonna make his followers see the Jezziah has no clothes.

    Only a second election defeat will do, and for that they need a change of leader in the Tories. Some duff polls for the Government, showing double digit leads for Labour would do nicely.
    Morning, ydoether.
    What do you make of the 'less stress through more exams' idea ...?
    Sounds very sensible to me.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 936
    daodao said:

    R4 leading on the anti-Semitic Soros story..

    It’s a pretty big deal that the PM’s former adviser is citing far right Eastern European anti-Semites in his takedown of Soros. It’s all very Breitbart and adds a layer or two to that whole citizens of nowhere meme. She is well shot of him. But ...

    It is entirely in line with use of the phrase "citizens of nowhere", alias "rootless cosmopolitan". The xenophobic British press and Tory party clearly see George Soros as a major public enemy in the same way as Victor Orban et al. They have probably never forgiven him for Black Wednesday.

    Oddly, Fidesz is a member of the EPP rather than the European Conservatives and Reformists group (which is led by the Tories and the equally xenophobic Polish Law and Justice party) in the EU parliament.


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,281

    So May to outlast Corbyn as party leader?

    I've (at length) been saying that:

    a) Corbyn is Brexit's Bezzy Mate, so

    b) he's not going for a second referendum meaning

    c) a sizeable chunk of his supporters are sussing him out - and in turn, will be blaming him as they see Brexit actually happening. What's the point of being the Jezziah if you won't even stop Brexit?

    A gnarled old Labour hand told me a while back "It'll be Brexit as does for Corbyn...." Once the tide of polling starts falling back, once it is clear Labour are going to lose yet ANOTHER election with him at the helm....the voices will start murmering. "'E's got to go, tha knows...."

    The Labour voters may turn against Corbyn, the Labour MPs may want to try yet again to get rid of him, but will Momentum and the hundreds of thousands of Labour members?
    It's not impossible, but it still looks rock solid for him.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172
    JC has been inoculated against poor polling by his GE performance. He will claim, with some justification, that he can claw 15-20 points during a campaign.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116

    So May to outlast Corbyn as party leader?

    I've (at length) been saying that:

    a) Corbyn is Brexit's Bezzy Mate, so

    b) he's not going for a second referendum meaning

    c) a sizeable chunk of his supporters are sussing him out - and in turn, will be blaming him as they see Brexit actually happening. What's the point of being the Jezziah if you won't even stop Brexit?

    A gnarled old Labour hand told me a while back "It'll be Brexit as does for Corbyn...." Once the tide of polling starts falling back, once it is clear Labour are going to lose yet ANOTHER election with him at the helm....the voices will start murmering. "'E's got to go, tha knows...."

    The Labour voters may turn against Corbyn, the Labour MPs may want to try yet again to get rid of him, but will Momentum and the hundreds of thousands of Labour members?
    Therein lies Labour's Civil War..... The issue is where those hundreds of thousands of Labour members stand. With Momentum? Or agin 'em? After all, what is the point in pounding the pavements, to see your party's national share of the vote sliding down?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    On this poll the Tories would double their 2017 lead and could well get a small majority
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    kle4 said:

    So May to outlast Corbyn as party leader?

    I've (at length) been saying that:

    a) Corbyn is Brexit's Bezzy Mate, so

    b) he's not going for a second referendum meaning

    c) a sizeable chunk of his supporters are sussing him out - and in turn, will be blaming him as they see Brexit actually happening. What's the point of being the Jezziah if you won't even stop Brexit?

    A gnarled old Labour hand told me a while back "It'll be Brexit as does for Corbyn...." Once the tide of polling starts falling back, once it is clear Labour are going to lose yet ANOTHER election with him at the helm....the voices will start murmering. "'E's got to go, tha knows...."

    The Labour voters may turn against Corbyn, the Labour MPs may want to try yet again to get rid of him, but will Momentum and the hundreds of thousands of Labour members?
    It's not impossible, but it still looks rock solid for him.
    If politics has taught us anything in recent years, it is that the rock solid is built on shifting sands....

    The one given is that Corbyn will be around as long as he wants. Accept nothing as given.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 265

    So May to outlast Corbyn as party leader?

    I've (at length) been saying that:

    a) Corbyn is Brexit's Bezzy Mate, so

    b) he's not going for a second referendum meaning

    c) a sizeable chunk of his supporters are sussing him out - and in turn, will be blaming him as they see Brexit actually happening. What's the point of being the Jezziah if you won't even stop Brexit?

    A gnarled old Labour hand told me a while back "It'll be Brexit as does for Corbyn...." Once the tide of polling starts falling back, once it is clear Labour are going to lose yet ANOTHER election with him at the helm....the voices will start murmering. "'E's got to go, tha knows...."

    The Labour voters may turn against Corbyn, the Labour MPs may want to try yet again to get rid of him, but will Momentum and the hundreds of thousands of Labour members?
    Therein lies Labour's Civil War..... The issue is where those hundreds of thousands of Labour members stand. With Momentum? Or agin 'em? After all, what is the point in pounding the pavements, to see your party's national share of the vote sliding down?

    So May to outlast Corbyn as party leader?

    I've (at length) been saying that:

    a) Corbyn is Brexit's Bezzy Mate, so

    b) he's not going for a second referendum meaning

    c) a sizeable chunk of his supporters are sussing him out - and in turn, will be blaming him as they see Brexit actually happening. What's the point of being the Jezziah if you won't even stop Brexit?

    A gnarled old Labour hand told me a while back "It'll be Brexit as does for Corbyn...." Once the tide of polling starts falling back, once it is clear Labour are going to lose yet ANOTHER election with him at the helm....the voices will start murmering. "'E's got to go, tha knows...."

    The Labour voters may turn against Corbyn, the Labour MPs may want to try yet again to get rid of him, but will Momentum and the hundreds of thousands of Labour members?
    Therein lies Labour's Civil War..... The issue is where those hundreds of thousands of Labour members stand. With Momentum? Or agin 'em? After all, what is the point in pounding the pavements, to see your party's national share of the vote sliding down?
    The issues boils down to what do the rank and file of Labour's activists/members and MOMENTUM really really want from BREXIT?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited February 8
    Dura_Ace said:

    JC has been inoculated against poor polling by his GE performance. He will claim, with some justification, that he can claw 15-20 points during a campaign.

    Most of that came from the minor parties who are mostly still voting Labour and from a much lower base plus the dementia tax the Tories have now dropped
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,993

    R4 leading on the anti-Semitic Soros story..

    It’s a pretty big deal that the PM’s former adviser is citing far right Eastern European anti-Semites in his takedown of Soros. It’s all very Breitbart and adds a layer or two to that whole citizens of nowhere meme. She is well shot of him. But ...

    Young Mr Jones seems to have a very poor take on political theory if he thinks the Hungarian Government is anywhere near a dictatorship.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,568

    When Nigel Farage went to Ireland to advise the Irish to Irexit, he was told to piss off.

    Similar rules apply to George Soros. He has no discernible connection to the UK, and should be told in similar terms not to interfere.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    148grss said:

    I assume this is noise, as people aren't really thinking about an election right now? Even in the case of a "snap" election, polls without an election looming in the public mind are more just feelings towards parties than VI.

    I would like to suggest, though, that the Tories will likely underperform this at the upcoming local elections. I think LDs will make better gains in local Tory held seats than they have a chance at possibly doing nationally, and I don't know how much Corbyn becomes a weight on your local council candidate if he's knocked on your door a few times and done a middling to good campaign.

    I'd expect the locals to be a better snapshot of where the public really stand, although I am not willing to really put figures on who does well where. Just a thought that LDs will make gains at expense of Tories in the south, Labour will make gains from Tories in the south and north, Tories won't do as well as people might think. (I know in my leafy 'burb, f'rinstance, that the biggest issue for voters on the door is NHS and doctors; something Tories do not win votes on)

    Remember Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% and UKIP got 17%. If this poll is anything like correct both the Tories and LDs could make gains and Labour could even lose seats
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    R4 leading on the anti-Semitic Soros story..

    It’s a pretty big deal that the PM’s former adviser is citing far right Eastern European anti-Semites in his takedown of Soros. It’s all very Breitbart and adds a layer or two to that whole citizens of nowhere meme. She is well shot of him. But ...

    Young Mr Jones seems to have a very poor take on political theory if he thinks the Hungarian Government is anywhere near a dictatorship.
    I would call it a partial democracy, closer to the real thing than Russia or Venezuela but a long way from the completed product.

    It seems a reasonable assumption this morning that Nick Timothy penned the “citizens of nowhere” soundbite.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Meeks, worth noting a recent court ruling in Venezuela prevented opposition parties from standing in the next election (unsure if it's a few specific ones or all of them). Right now, Venezuela's less of a democracy than Russia.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530
    Dura_Ace said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    clearly an outlier.

    Whatever the latin for this is should be embroidered on the official PB.com blazer badges. Beneath three bookies' biros mounted fesswise.

    "Egregium sane" would do, I think.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,095
    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.

    Given that 18 months in the government has yet to decide on what kind of Brexit it wants, the only surprise is that 22% of those polled think it’s doing a good negotiating job. They are certainly very well represented on PB!!

    I think this is difficult. The government has divisions yes but also wants to play cards close to its chest. Result: media goes wild on a daily basis while the public goes meh ...
    This is absurd.
    Prevaricating is not the same thing as playing cards close to your chest. Those who have to make investment decisions based on what happens next year still have nothing to go on.
    The government's own assessments published this week show the possibility of massive hits to the UK's car industry (look at the forecasts for the North East and West Midlands under FTA or WTO conditions...)

    Yes, it is possible that everything might just turn out OK, but it is at least equally possible that it could be dire. And up until now we have barely engaged in negotiations.
    Most arguments one doesn't like are 'absurd'. Then they can more easily be ignored. It was made clear from the start that there'd be no blow by blow account on a daily basis. But May has been very consistent and it annoys the 'remainers' who want ammunition to reverse a democratic vote. Like me you need to be patient and suck it up. Obviously you'll find poll frustrating. Rather like the referendum result and the postponed armageddon, it is what it is.
    You are quite right; May has been exceptionally consistent in putting off any important decision until the last possible minute.

    Lol - clearly you're still hurting and the polling just twists the knife. My sympathies.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 399
    Are Remain voters starting to wake up to how Corbyn is supporting hard Brexit?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,561
    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.

    Given that 18 months in the government has yet to decide on what kind of Brexit it wants, the only surprise is that 22% of those polled think it’s doing a good negotiating job. They are certainly very well represented on PB!!

    I think this is difficult. The government has divisions yes but also wants to play cards close to its chest. Result: media goes wild on a daily basis while the public goes meh ...
    This is absurd.
    Prevaricating is not the same thing as playing cards close to your chest. Those who have to make investment decisions based on what happens next year still have nothing to go on.
    The government's own assessments published this week show the possibility of massive hits to the UK's car industry (look at the forecasts for the North East and West Midlands under FTA or WTO conditions...)

    Yes, it is possible that everything might just turn out OK, but it is at least equally possible that it could be dire. And up until now we have barely engaged in negotiations.
    Most arguments one doesn't like are 'absurd'. Then they can more easily be ignored. It was made clear from the start that there'd be no blow by blow account on a daily basis. But May has been very consistent and it annoys the 'remainers' who want ammunition to reverse a democratic vote. Like me you need to be patient and suck it up. Obviously you'll find poll frustrating. Rather like the referendum result and the postponed armageddon, it is what it is.
    You are quite right; May has been exceptionally consistent in putting off any important decision until the last possible minute.

    Just like Merkel and the EU always have been.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Six Nations: most of the markets aren't up yet, but Ladbrokes has Wales 5 to beat England. Too long?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517
    It's a bit early to get excited this far out from the next general election isn't it? But one thing I have noticed over many years is that there is often a lag while the public catches up with big news stories. Iraq for example barely dented Labour's poll ratings for ages.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,201
    Mr Elliot,

    "Are Remain voters starting to wake up to how Corbyn is supporting hard Brexit?"

    More likely, Leave voters are realising that insistence of the single market and CU = Bino. Jezza has been quiet and you have the Labour Remainers in full voice.

    Even more likely, it's just noise.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 277
    It doesn't matter what the polls say - after last summer his core support base can (justifiably) claim he'll do it on the day.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    Although this could be an outlier poll (probably is IMO), there does seem to be a slow drift away from Labour since after the election.

    Brexit is the main thing and the key factor has nothing to do with Labour. Currently half the population think Brexit will have no economic consequences - maybe helpful. They are wrong and you could also call cognitive dissonance with other things they believe. Nevertheless, opinion polls and elections deal with belief, not reality. Because Brexit is going to be fine, Conservative Headbangers can say and do what they want and it won't make any difference to Brexit success. For the same reason, Labour can't capitalise on Brexit outcomes, although they could possibly shore up their support.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641

    Mr. Meeks, worth noting a recent court ruling in Venezuela prevented opposition parties from standing in the next election (unsure if it's a few specific ones or all of them). Right now, Venezuela's less of a democracy than Russia.

    At least in Russia Putin is clearly the most popular choice to lead the country, and people have jobs, full shelves in shops and pensions have some (albeit low) value. Sadly none of that is true in Venezuela, whose leaders deserve untimely ends for what they have done to their country.
  • None of this should be surprising. It is clear that Labour as currently constituted is unelectable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    Rhubarb said:

    It doesn't matter what the polls say - after last summer his core support base can (justifiably) claim he'll do it on the day.

    He only did so by squeezing the Green, LD, UKIP and SNP votes from 2015 and getting new voters out, few 2015 Tories actually switched to Labour. Next time he needs to win significant numbers of Tory voters to get a working majority
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    It's a bit early to get excited this far out from the next general election isn't it? But one thing I have noticed over many years is that there is often a lag while the public catches up with big news stories. Iraq for example barely dented Labour's poll ratings for ages.

    Labour of course won a comfortable overall majority in 2005 despite Iraq
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers

    Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.

    Given that 18 months in the government has yet to decide on what kind of Brexit it wants, the only surprise is that 22% of those polled think it’s doing a good negotiating job. They are certainly very well represented on PB!!

    I think this is difficult. The government has divisions yes but also wants to play cards close to its chest. Result: media goes wild on a daily basis while the public goes meh ...
    This is absurd.
    Prevaricating is not the same thing as playing cards close to your chest. Those who have to make investment decisions based on what happens next year still have nothing to go on.
    The government's own assessments published this week show the possibility of massive hits to the UK's car industry (look at the forecasts for the North East and West Midlands under FTA or WTO conditions...)

    Yes, it is possible that everything might just turn out OK, but it is at least equally possible that it could be dire. And up until now we have barely engaged in negotiations.
    Most arguments one doesn't like are 'absurd'. Then they can more easily be ignored. It was made clear from the start that there'd be no blow by blow account on a daily basis. But May has been very consistent and it annoys the 'remainers' who want ammunition to reverse a democratic vote. Like me you need to be patient and suck it up. Obviously you'll find poll frustrating. Rather like the referendum result and the postponed armageddon, it is what it is.
    You are quite right; May has been exceptionally consistent in putting off any important decision until the last possible minute.

    Lol - clearly you're still hurting and the polling just twists the knife. My sympathies.
    And you are utterly clueless.
    Had you any real idea of what I think, you'd realise that I accept the Brexit vote; what I don't accept is the utterly incompetent manner in which the government is dealing with what happens next.
    If you don't belive that there is a huge threat to our manufacturing base - and that applies to our aerospace industry every bit as much as motor manufacturing - then you are both complacent and naive.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,131
    The day the polls turned.
  • Rhubarb said:

    It doesn't matter what the polls say - after last summer his core support base can (justifiably) claim he'll do it on the day.

    Im afraid this is nonsense. A unique set of circumstances coincided in June 2017 to boost Corbyn's results - not least that many were protesting with little seeming fear that he would actually be elected.

    The middle classes, the middle aged and the old will turn out next time, not for love of the tories but for fear of Corbyn's Labour. And they are right to be fearful....

  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,684
    Why?

    Corbyn is rubbish at day to day politics. This is completely to be expected.

    A few more "there is no antisemitism in the Labour party" stories, more creepy left wing stuff like in HAringey and there's only one direction of travel.

    Well, until they start up that bluddy chant again -_-
  • Electoral calculas on these figured gives - Con 326 Lab 247 Libs 16 SNP 39 others 22

    New Con - Lib coalition maybe
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,561

    Electoral calculas on these figured gives - Con 326 Lab 247 Libs 16 SNP 39 others 22

    New Con - Lib coalition maybe
    That's an outright Con majority. Doubtful there'd be a coalition in those circumstances.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. NorthWales, doubt it. The Lib Dems, having championed PR and coalitions for so long, are not very keen on them nowadays.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 4,835
    Jeremy Corbyn doesn't have a good track record of negotiating with his own MPs. The more that public attention is directed to the difficulties of negotiating Brexit the less inclined the public are to want the boat rocked.

    Theresa May might be negotiating incompetently with the EU, but clearly the public does not believe any other politician would do a better job.

    Corbyn did well at the GE by moving debate onto public services, challenging the economic status quo, and being the best available means to prevent May from acquiring a strong majority and the mandate to negotiate Brexit with minimal oversight.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,561
    FF43 said:

    Although this could be an outlier poll (probably is IMO), there does seem to be a slow drift away from Labour since after the election.

    Brexit is the main thing and the key factor has nothing to do with Labour. Currently half the population think Brexit will have no economic consequences - maybe helpful. They are wrong and you could also call cognitive dissonance with other things they believe. Nevertheless, opinion polls and elections deal with belief, not reality. Because Brexit is going to be fine, Conservative Headbangers can say and do what they want and it won't make any difference to Brexit success. For the same reason, Labour can't capitalise on Brexit outcomes, although they could possibly shore up their support.

    Total hubris to just say they are wrong. Why are they wrong?

    Since the country is growing quite healthily at the moment with record low unemployment as opposed to the suggested immediate recession and skyrocketing unemployment I'd have thought those against Brexit might by now have a touch of humility and doubt about their own predictions.
This discussion has been closed.