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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poll shows Leave voters would stay mostly solid even if Brexit

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited February 14 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poll shows Leave voters would stay mostly solid even if Brexit hurts economy, their finances and the NHS

Above in the chart is a new BMG poll which seeks to ascertain the attitudes of Leave voters to negative aspects of Brexit. It was commissioned by Left Foot Forward.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    edited February 14
    Think that this has been relatively obvious from the response to the media deluge of the last few months. People who voted leave (a) don't believe the forecasts and (b) care more about the negative aspects of the EU.

    Edit. And first. My work here is done. Have a good day all.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    Next up - how the Scots can still win at Culloden and the case for a second battle of Agincourt gains momentum on twitter.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,523
    Interesting that leavers are more prepared to take a hit to their personal finances than to see the country slip into recession.

    Wish they’d asked one on immigration.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369
    Why would you expect change?

    Take the Shippers book on Brexit. What is the big regret of the Remainers? Not that they should have made the positive case for the EU but that they did not launch personal attacks on Gove and Boris. That's it.

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    TGOHF said:
    A whole programme devoted to Jeremy Hunt’s odds as next Tory leader? Well, those canny Scots know a bargain.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    DavidL said:

    Think that this has been relatively obvious from the response to the media deluge of the last few months. People who voted leave (a) don't believe the forecasts and (b) care more about the negative aspects of the EU.

    Edit. And first. My work here is done. Have a good day all.

    I think this is less a comment on the substance and simply reflects human nature which is, once a decision has been made, to stick with it and deny or discount any evidence that points to having been wrong.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    Some polling of Remainers please - what would make them change their mind about Brexit?

    The Sun rises on 31st March 2019?

    Provence is still accessible on 31st March 2019?

    Better absorbency in knicker gusset material?

    Growing up and accepting democracy?

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    edited February 14

    I see Boris Johnson’s idea of wooing Remain supporters is to accuse them of betrayal. The Conservatives really are clueless.

    It will be interesting with this speech to see how much Johnson inspires the parts the other politicians can't reach, which supposedly is his USP. His real job is to sell the government's Brexit policy to a sceptical public, something he hasn't done any of so far. Johnson certainly wasn't selected FM for his Bismarckian genius at diplomacy.

    On topic, Brexit will wear Britain out, in an exercise that is almost pointless, but I don't expect to rejoin the EU. Apart from having voted against it, EU membership is far better than the real non-hypothetical Leave alternatives, so rejoining has to be a possibility. But not very likely imo. More likely there will be an ineffectual effort to rejoin while the UK variously attempts to co-opt, undermine and ignore the EU while drifting behind. Sadly, because we can do better than that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 34,506

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,610
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Think that this has been relatively obvious from the response to the media deluge of the last few months. People who voted leave (a) don't believe the forecasts and (b) care more about the negative aspects of the EU.

    Edit. And first. My work here is done. Have a good day all.

    I think this is less a comment on the substance and simply reflects human nature which is, once a decision has been made, to stick with it and deny or discount any evidence that points to having been wrong.
    That certainly sounds familiar.
  • TGOHF said:

    Next up - how the Scots can still win at Culloden and the case for a second battle of Agincourt gains momentum on twitter.

    We lost the sequel to Agincourt.

    Patay was a disaster.

    How embarrassing is it to be at war with France for 100 years and still lose.

    In mitigation I suppose we were led by Frenchmen too.
  • The reality is that the NHS is under considerable strain at the moment but leavers don't think it has anything to do with leaving the EU. In some ways they are right but it has made a difference. Had another meeting yesterday with a customer with an innovative new medical device who has decided to slow down efforts to sell to the NHS and focus on USA, Germany and Scandinavia where the money is. The UK is slowing slipping out of the premier league and into the championship with France, Italy, Spain etc.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,095
    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Ouch! Don't like the poll - hurl abuse. Rinse and repeat - keep on losing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    Remainers have constantly misread the situation - and underestimated Brexiteers. It’s quite comical.

    In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”

    The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369
    edited February 14
    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    The lesson is that positive messages work better than negative ones. A lesson Cameron failed to take from almost losing Scotland until Gordon Brown intervened. EUref was disgraceful -- both sides lied but Leave told positive lies whereas Remain, rather than make a positive case for the benefits of the EU chose increasingly hysterical negativity.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,304

    Remainers have constantly misread the situation - and underestimated Brexiteers. It’s quite comical.

    In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”

    The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”

    Fantasy
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Project Fib versus Project Fact and Project Fib won?
  • Isn’t this a bit like the NHS/Social Care funding questions.

    People say they’ll accept the pain of higher taxes to fund the NHS/social care but the moment a party announces concrete plans to do just that the voters get the hump and cost Mrs May David Cameron’s majority?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116

    Remainers have constantly misread the situation - and underestimated Brexiteers. It’s quite comical.

    In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”

    The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”

    Fantasy
    Optimism. Not a condition Remainers seem able to recognise.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited February 14
    Given the main reason Leavers voted Leave was to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration in most polls, it is hardly surprising a downturn in the economy in the immediate aftermath of Brexit would not make most of them change their minds.

    As for voting intention surveys on potential alternative leaders, they actually tend to be pretty accurate. There was also no polling which had Gordon Brown 'marked down' before he became PM. He led almost every poll as to who voters wanted to succeed Blair as Labour leader and I remember Mori did a voting intention comparison of Labour and the Tories under Brown and Cameron before he became PM giving something like Tories 36% Labour 39%. In 2010 the Tories actually got 36% against Brown, though post crash a lot of that 39% of Labour voters went LD
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369
    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Project Fib versus Project Fact and Project Fib won?
    Project Fear not fact -- unless we missed the emergency budget and outbreak of world war 3 or even a minor scuffle over Schleswig-Holstein that David Cameron warned about.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,610

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Project Fib versus Project Fact and Project Fib won?
    Project Fear not fact -- unless we missed the emergency budget and outbreak of world war 3 or even a minor scuffle over Schleswig-Holstein that David Cameron warned about.
    Outside currency depreciation, Remain didn't get one major call on the economy right, and they still cry 'facts!'.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    Essexit said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Project Fib versus Project Fact and Project Fib won?
    Project Fear not fact -- unless we missed the emergency budget and outbreak of world war 3 or even a minor scuffle over Schleswig-Holstein that David Cameron warned about.
    Outside currency depreciation, Remain didn't get one major call on the economy right, and they still cry 'facts!'.
    And the currency depreciation is a boon to our exporters....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200
    It's absolutely amazing how much the colour of one's passport seems to matter to people.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719

    Remainers have constantly misread the situation - and underestimated Brexiteers. It’s quite comical.

    In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”

    The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”

    Fantasy
    Optimism. Not a condition Remainers seem able to recognise.....
    Your optimistic vision is that the rest of the continent should fail abysmally?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517
    edited February 14

    Remainers have constantly misread the situation - and underestimated Brexiteers. It’s quite comical.

    In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”

    The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”

    Yes that's right. Of course they will.

    Oh the sun's coming out. Let's take you for a little walk shall we?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172

    Remainers have constantly misread the situation - and underestimated Brexiteers. It’s quite comical.

    In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”

    The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”

    Fantasy
    They'll be seduced by our frictionless trade with the economic powerhouses of the Isles of Wight and Man.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Project Fib versus Project Fact and Project Fib won?
    Project Fear not fact -- unless we missed the emergency budget and outbreak of world war 3 or even a minor scuffle over Schleswig-Holstein that David Cameron warned about.
    You just made that up huh?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,116

    It's absolutely amazing how much the colour of one's passport seems to matter to people.

    Indeed. I keep hearing Remainers moaning about the forthcoming change.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,780
    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Isn't that Politics 101?

    Are you new here?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,668
    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Given the well established theory of loss aversion I can only conclude that your side must be really crap to lose that one
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 991
    Probably the most interesting point in the Leave / Remainer arguments that seems to be ignored, was the willingness of referendum voters to vote against whatever the government of the day wants, as a method of protest in a period in which there is no General Election or electioneering. If you start looking at the area results, a different picture emerges...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,523

    The reality is that the NHS is under considerable strain at the moment but leavers don't think it has anything to do with leaving the EU. In some ways they are right but it has made a difference. Had another meeting yesterday with a customer with an innovative new medical device who has decided to slow down efforts to sell to the NHS and focus on USA, Germany and Scandinavia where the money is. The UK is slowing slipping out of the premier league and into the championship with France, Italy, Spain etc.

    Slowing down medical innovation might not help our health, but it might help the NHS save money!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    edited February 14

    The reality is that the NHS is under considerable strain at the moment but leavers don't think it has anything to do with leaving the EU. In some ways they are right but it has made a difference. Had another meeting yesterday with a customer with an innovative new medical device who has decided to slow down efforts to sell to the NHS and focus on USA, Germany and Scandinavia where the money is. The UK is slowing slipping out of the premier league and into the championship with France, Italy, Spain etc.

    I think that's right. Brexit won't be an outright disaster. If it were, we would rejoin. But we're aspiring to be Italy rather than Germany. Meanwhile the world moves on.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116

    Remainers have constantly misread the situation - and underestimated Brexiteers. It’s quite comical.

    In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”

    The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”

    Fantasy
    Optimism. Not a condition Remainers seem able to recognise.....
    Your optimistic vision is that the rest of the continent should fail abysmally?
    The rest of the continent has loaded all its possessions into a massive juggernaut, then driven it into a cul de sac. And discovered it has no reverse gear.

    Good luck to them. They are going to need it.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,563
    Morning all :)

    Happy St Val's Day to all and one piece of wisdom from me:

    Remember anyone who posts from midnight to 8am is sad, anyone who posts from 8am to 4pm is bad and anyone who posts from 4pm to midnight is mad and you won't go too far wrong on here.

    At this stage, why should there be any buyers' remorse ? Very little has happened - we are slightly less in the EU than we were on 23/6/16 in that we are excluded from some meetings but that's all. It's analogous to the Phoney War period of 1939-40 when it all seemed remote and far away and just a little bit exciting.

    The truth is whether we are in the EU or not we will still be subject to the winds, favourable or otherwise, of the global economy. If America sneezes, we will still catch a cold and if the oil price skyrockets or China slows down we will still feel the effects.

    There will be another downturn or recession one day - its severity and timing aren't known or clear at this time - and we will need to respond to that but as there was in 2008, that will be orchestrated through the G7 or the G20 and be collaborative and co-operative rather than everyone doing their own thing.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,668

    TGOHF said:

    Next up - how the Scots can still win at Culloden and the case for a second battle of Agincourt gains momentum on twitter.

    We lost the sequel to Agincourt.

    Patay was a disaster.

    How embarrassing is it to be at war with France for 100 years and still lose.

    In mitigation I suppose we were led by Frenchmen too.
    It took a Spanish king to lose Calais for us
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    I think those with firm views will see a lot of things with tinted spectacles. It doesn't help that the two campaigns were so clearly flawed, enabling those on either side to lambast the complacency of Leave or the fear-mongering of Remain.

    I suspect a lot of people in the middle are just sick of hearing about it.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Project Fib versus Project Fact and Project Fib won?
    Project Fear not fact -- unless we missed the emergency budget and outbreak of world war 3 or even a minor scuffle over Schleswig-Holstein that David Cameron warned about.
    You just made that up huh?
    I did not vote Leave, still less campaign for it. But I'm right about the failure of the Remain campaign's negativity.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,668

    The reality is that the NHS is under considerable strain at the moment but leavers don't think it has anything to do with leaving the EU. In some ways they are right but it has made a difference. Had another meeting yesterday with a customer with an innovative new medical device who has decided to slow down efforts to sell to the NHS and focus on USA, Germany and Scandinavia where the money is. The UK is slowing slipping out of the premier league and into the championship with France, Italy, Spain etc.

    I come across this all of the time. It’s to do with the NHS pricing strategy not Brexit.

    Intriguing that you group those 4 countries together... classic launch strategy for a Scandi originated medical device is Scandi...Germany...U.K....Us
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295
    rkrkrk said:

    The reality is that the NHS is under considerable strain at the moment but leavers don't think it has anything to do with leaving the EU. In some ways they are right but it has made a difference. Had another meeting yesterday with a customer with an innovative new medical device who has decided to slow down efforts to sell to the NHS and focus on USA, Germany and Scandinavia where the money is. The UK is slowing slipping out of the premier league and into the championship with France, Italy, Spain etc.

    Slowing down medical innovation might not help our health, but it might help the NHS save money!
    Might being the operative word. Many new devices and innovations save on staff time and thereby are essential for the a viable future NHS. e.g. I had a scan at my GPs last year using a small, mobile scanner that went from practice to practice and avoided having to go to the local hospital for the scan.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200
    Mortimer said:

    It's absolutely amazing how much the colour of one's passport seems to matter to people.

    Indeed. I keep hearing Remainers moaning about the forthcoming change.
    LOL
    I really don't give a monkeys about the colour of mine and my wife keeps hers in a rather fetching pink (she says) folder.
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 11
    It's pretty obvious that after the epic fail of Project Fear we arn't going to change our votes to Remain under any circumstances.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    It's quite easy to be insouciant about inflation if you have a triple lock and relaxed about recessions if you're retired.

    Pensioners show notably less fortitude about their decision even in the abstract if the NHS, the service they depend on, might be affected.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Project Fib versus Project Fact and Project Fib won?
    Project Fear not fact -- unless we missed the emergency budget and outbreak of world war 3 or even a minor scuffle over Schleswig-Holstein that David Cameron warned about.
    You just made that up huh?
    I did not vote Leave, still less campaign for it. But I'm right about the failure of the Remain campaign's negativity.
    Indeed you are. But Scott's point was that lies won out over truth. The truth and negativity aren't incompatible. Remain's failure was ultimately its inability to expose those lies. The problem now is those lies will bite us.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,975

    It's quite easy to be insouciant about inflation if you have a triple lock and relaxed about recessions if you're retired.

    Pensioners show notably less fortitude about their decision even in the abstract if the NHS, the service they depend on, might be affected.

    National Insurance on pensions to help save the NHS seems like a good policy.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530

    It's absolutely amazing how much the colour of one's passport seems to matter to people.

    Does it, though? My impression is that the snootier kind of Remainer likes to pretend it does as part of project "Let's all point at the thick proles and laugh" (which worked so well in the referendum campaign; these guys sure learn from their mistakes). Polling would be good.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,563
    Awb683 said:

    It's pretty obvious that after the epic fail of Project Fear we arn't going to change our votes to Remain under any circumstances.

    Of course we would. The problem is the REMAIN camp only offered Fear or the stick, It might have gone better if they had been able to offer plenty of carrot.

    Had a REMAIN vote been in effect a bribe via tax cuts or increased spending via a big rebate from the EU and the result would have gone the other way.

    You catch more voters with honey than with flypaper,
  • Remainers have constantly misread the situation - and underestimated Brexiteers. It’s quite comical.

    In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”

    The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”

    Fantasy
    Optimism. Not a condition Remainers seem able to recognise.....
    I am optimistic that West Bromwich Albion will still be playing in the Premiership next season. That optimism has no empirical basis (seven points adrift of safety) but as statistical survival from relegation remains possible I am hopeful of a great escape.

    Your notion of Brexit optimism follows a similar pattern!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    JonathanD said:

    It's quite easy to be insouciant about inflation if you have a triple lock and relaxed about recessions if you're retired.

    Pensioners show notably less fortitude about their decision even in the abstract if the NHS, the service they depend on, might be affected.

    National Insurance on pensions to help save the NHS seems like a good policy.
    And scrap the triple lock. Leavers should contribute to the cost of their own decisions.
  • It's quite easy to be insouciant about inflation if you have a triple lock and relaxed about recessions if you're retired.

    Pensioners show notably less fortitude about their decision even in the abstract if the NHS, the service they depend on, might be affected.

    A sliding scale of your vote being worth 100 at 16, down to 0 when you're 116. Therefore, the younger you are, the more your vote is worth as you have longer to reap the reward/consequences.

    Minimum IQ of 90 required too

    And no thickies

    #manifesto2022
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Meeks, do you think Buddhists should pay lower taxes so their money doesn't fund the armed forces? Or those with private healthcare should be allowed to opt-out of paying for the NHS?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,335

    It's quite easy to be insouciant about inflation if you have a triple lock and relaxed about recessions if you're retired.

    Pensioners show notably less fortitude about their decision even in the abstract if the NHS, the service they depend on, might be affected.

    If you rely on savings you are not at all insouciant about inflation.

    Is it worth saying that not all pensioners voted Leave and not all Leave voters were pensioners?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Project Fib versus Project Fact and Project Fib won?
    Project Fear not fact -- unless we missed the emergency budget and outbreak of world war 3 or even a minor scuffle over Schleswig-Holstein that David Cameron warned about.
    You just made that up huh?
    I did not vote Leave, still less campaign for it. But I'm right about the failure of the Remain campaign's negativity.
    Indeed you are. But Scott's point was that lies won out over truth. The truth and negativity aren't incompatible. Remain's failure was ultimately its inability to expose those lies. The problem now is those lies will bite us.
    The problem now is the Remain side is still not making a positive case for the EU. It is doubling down on a failed strategy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Looking forward to hearing Boris speak today, apparently he’s the first of half a dozen Cabinet members to do so, and his speech will be cleared properly with No.10 in advance.

    More than anything it will be good to hear Cabinet members espousing positive visions for a post-Brexit Britain. Jacob Rees-Mogg and Dan Hannan are probably happy to be joined in their optimism by some of their more senior colleagues.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,201
    Mr Cole,

    "It's absolutely amazing how much the colour of one's passport seems to matter to people."

    It really doesn't. No one I've spoken to in the last few weeks give a monkeys. But I suppose I live in an odd part of the world now, and meet very eccentric people.

    However, I thought that when I watched Question Time from Boston a couple of years ago and heard all the pro-Remainers. Perhaps the BBC knows more than I do, I thought. I don't live there anymore and my experiences could be flawed.Perhaps Boston will register a massive Yes to the EU?

    Likewise, I've yet to meet anyone who's bothered about trans-gender toilets or who supports pre-pubertal children changing sex. How nice it must be to live somewhere more typical.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    Mr. Meeks, do you think Buddhists should pay lower taxes so their money doesn't fund the armed forces? Or those with private healthcare should be allowed to opt-out of paying for the NHS?

    Different point. Power without responsibility is the harlot's prerogative. To judge from the usual scalded cat reaction to the idea Leavers should contribute to the cost of Brexit, they see themselves as harlots.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530
    Cyclefree said:

    It's quite easy to be insouciant about inflation if you have a triple lock and relaxed about recessions if you're retired.

    Pensioners show notably less fortitude about their decision even in the abstract if the NHS, the service they depend on, might be affected.

    If you rely on savings you are not at all insouciant about inflation.

    Is it worth saying that not all pensioners voted Leave and not all Leave voters were pensioners?
    The Remain voting pensioners are, of course, acceptable collateral damage. Say hello to the politics of infantile spite.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370

    JonathanD said:

    It's quite easy to be insouciant about inflation if you have a triple lock and relaxed about recessions if you're retired.

    Pensioners show notably less fortitude about their decision even in the abstract if the NHS, the service they depend on, might be affected.

    National Insurance on pensions to help save the NHS seems like a good policy.
    And scrap the triple lock. Leavers should contribute to the cost of their own decisions.
    Will the triple lock still be around in 2048 :o ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872

    TGOHF said:

    Next up - how the Scots can still win at Culloden and the case for a second battle of Agincourt gains momentum on twitter.

    We lost the sequel to Agincourt.

    Patay was a disaster.

    How embarrassing is it to be at war with France for 100 years and still lose.

    In mitigation I suppose we were led by Frenchmen too.
    The English campaigns of the 1420s and the 1430s in France weren't unlike the strategic problem the British faced during the American Revolution: we were simply too small with too few men and resources to win in a country so large and populous.

    We had to win every single battle to stay on top. On the other hand, we only had to lose big one to lose the war.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,641
    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    Cyclefree said:

    It's quite easy to be insouciant about inflation if you have a triple lock and relaxed about recessions if you're retired.

    Pensioners show notably less fortitude about their decision even in the abstract if the NHS, the service they depend on, might be affected.

    If you rely on savings you are not at all insouciant about inflation.

    Is it worth saying that not all pensioners voted Leave and not all Leave voters were pensioners?
    That's the trouble with any form of collective punishment.

    The triple lock is a bad policy which should go because it's a bad policy, not because you disapprove of the voting intentions of most pensioners.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    edited February 14

    Remainers have constantly misread the situation - and underestimated Brexiteers. It’s quite comical.

    In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”

    The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”

    Fantasy
    Optimism. Not a condition Remainers seem able to recognise.....
    I am optimistic that West Bromwich Albion will still be playing in the Premiership next season. That optimism has no empirical basis (seven points adrift of safety) but as statistical survival from relegation remains possible I am hopeful of a great escape.

    Your notion of Brexit optimism follows a similar pattern!
    Your optimism will be tested to destruction by Easter though... Mine will last much longer - and still has chance of coming about!

    Feel sad about the Baggies. Suspect they will be Premiership “ rejoiners” though!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    Sandpit said:

    Looking forward to hearing Boris speak today, apparently he’s the first of half a dozen Cabinet members to do so, and his speech will be cleared properly with No.10 in advance.

    More than anything it will be good to hear Cabinet members espousing positive visions for a post-Brexit Britain. Jacob Rees-Mogg and Dan Hannan are probably happy to be joined in their optimism by some of their more senior colleagues.

    Opening report, how Remainers are betraying Britain. Doesn't sound like much of an olive branch or very positive.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,157
    Let's face it, no great good will come of Brexit. The best we can hope for now is that we stave off a national humiliation and economic collapse. The Leavers realize this and are increasingly resorting to trench warfare. For example, Boris's speech today - trailed as being a conciliatory and optimistic appraisal of Brexit - will be bang on about the 'permanent and ineradicable feelings of betrayal' amongst Leavers should their demands not be met. Cheery stuff!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,335

    It's quite easy to be insouciant about inflation if you have a triple lock and relaxed about recessions if you're retired.

    Pensioners show notably less fortitude about their decision even in the abstract if the NHS, the service they depend on, might be affected.

    A sliding scale of your vote being worth 100 at 16, down to 0 when you're 116. Therefore, the younger you are, the more your vote is worth as you have longer to reap the reward/consequences.

    Minimum IQ of 90 required too

    And no thickies

    #manifesto2022
    Or maybe votes should be linked to how much tax you pay, a 21st century version of the 19th century basis of the franchise?

    Wasnt’t there some study a while back showing that you needed to be earning a pretty substantial salary before you became a net contributor, once benefits/tax credits etc were taken into account?

    (PS this is not an entirely serious proposal. There is something worrisome about the desire of some to punish those who don’t vote in a way pleasing to them, whether this comes from the left or right or Leavers or Remainers.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872

    Remainers have constantly misread the situation - and underestimated Brexiteers. It’s quite comical.

    In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”

    The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”

    Fantasy
    Optimism. Not a condition Remainers seem able to recognise.....
    Your optimistic vision is that the rest of the continent should fail abysmally?
    According to you the supreme triumph of the United States of Europe is inevitable, and resistance is futile, so you should have nothing to worry about.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,335

    Sandpit said:

    Looking forward to hearing Boris speak today, apparently he’s the first of half a dozen Cabinet members to do so, and his speech will be cleared properly with No.10 in advance.

    More than anything it will be good to hear Cabinet members espousing positive visions for a post-Brexit Britain. Jacob Rees-Mogg and Dan Hannan are probably happy to be joined in their optimism by some of their more senior colleagues.

    Opening report, how Remainers are betraying Britain. Doesn't sound like much of an olive branch or very positive.
    A missed opportunity if so. A shame.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    On the Hundred Years' War: it was largely inevitable. Whilst land in modern day France was lost, it's worth remembering that the fact it was almost entirely fought in France was rather good for England. We're damned fortunate Edward III and not his father (or, Heaven forbid, John) was king at the time.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,975
    Sandpit said:

    Looking forward to hearing Boris speak today, apparently he’s the first of half a dozen Cabinet members to do so, and his speech will be cleared properly with No.10 in advance.

    More than anything it will be good to hear Cabinet members espousing positive visions for a post-Brexit Britain. Jacob Rees-Mogg and Dan Hannan are probably happy to be joined in their optimism by some of their more senior colleagues.

    Someone should ask Boris how his work to free Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is going. No doubt his speech today will have his usual level of thoughtfulness and tact.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,335
    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    Beyond slogans and soundbites she has no idea what her desired end state should be. That is the problem.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,530

    TGOHF said:

    Next up - how the Scots can still win at Culloden and the case for a second battle of Agincourt gains momentum on twitter.

    We lost the sequel to Agincourt.

    Patay was a disaster.

    How embarrassing is it to be at war with France for 100 years and still lose.

    In mitigation I suppose we were led by Frenchmen too.
    The English campaigns of the 1420s and the 1430s in France weren't unlike the strategic problem the British faced during the American Revolution: we were simply too small with too few men and resources to win in a country so large and populous.

    We had to win every single battle to stay on top. On the other hand, we only had to lose big one to lose the war.
    Jonathan Sumption reckons that the same point would have applied to the Anglo French empire we would have created by winning, that the Frenchness would have overwhelmed the Englishness and we would all now be speaking French (and there would be no one for Waterloo and Trafalgar to be against). A good one to lose, then, from the TSE pov.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334
    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    And a rather more than trivial chance of their voting against.

    The only time May had shown any propensity whatever to gamble was when the odds were massively in her favour - and she got severely burned at the subsequent general election. Expect the procrastination to continue.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,707
    Keep the faith with May , seems the best analogy.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,877
    A stiff drink may be required before reading this thread in its entirety:

    twitter.com/robesonblogs/status/963008274193936384
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Project Fib versus Project Fact and Project Fib won?
    Project Fear not fact -- unless we missed the emergency budget and outbreak of world war 3 or even a minor scuffle over Schleswig-Holstein that David Cameron warned about.
    You just made that up huh?
    I did not vote Leave, still less campaign for it. But I'm right about the failure of the Remain campaign's negativity.
    Indeed you are. But Scott's point was that lies won out over truth. The truth and negativity aren't incompatible. Remain's failure was ultimately its inability to expose those lies. The problem now is those lies will bite us.
    The problem now is the Remain side is still not making a positive case for the EU. It is doubling down on a failed strategy.
    The campaigns are over, which is the relevant point to the thread. Leavers won the campaign but disown the project, so erstwhile Remainers are stuck with implementing a project they thought was misconceived. The rest of us realise the situation we are in without embracing it.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517
    Maybe we should just have allowed people to purchase extra votes in the referendum. We'd still be leaving but we wouldn't have to experience all those horrible adverts and at least the money spent on influencing the vote would be in the exchequer and could be put to good use.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TGOHF said:

    Next up - how the Scots can still win at Culloden and the case for a second battle of Agincourt gains momentum on twitter.

    We lost the sequel to Agincourt.

    Patay was a disaster.

    How embarrassing is it to be at war with France for 100 years and still lose.

    In mitigation I suppose we were led by Frenchmen too.
    The English campaigns of the 1420s and the 1430s in France weren't unlike the strategic problem the British faced during the American Revolution: we were simply too small with too few men and resources to win in a country so large and populous.

    We had to win every single battle to stay on top. On the other hand, we only had to lose big one to lose the war.
    Jonathan Sumption reckons that the same point would have applied to the Anglo French empire we would have created by winning, that the Frenchness would have overwhelmed the Englishness and we would all now be speaking French (and there would be no one for Waterloo and Trafalgar to be against). A good one to lose, then, from the TSE pov.
    As it happens, I think Henry V would have won the war, had he lived another ten years. But, I accept the argument that England would have become a backwater, in that case.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TGOHF said:

    Next up - how the Scots can still win at Culloden and the case for a second battle of Agincourt gains momentum on twitter.

    We lost the sequel to Agincourt.

    Patay was a disaster.

    How embarrassing is it to be at war with France for 100 years and still lose.

    In mitigation I suppose we were led by Frenchmen too.
    The English campaigns of the 1420s and the 1430s in France weren't unlike the strategic problem the British faced during the American Revolution: we were simply too small with too few men and resources to win in a country so large and populous.

    We had to win every single battle to stay on top. On the other hand, we only had to lose big one to lose the war.
    Jonathan Sumption reckons that the same point would have applied to the Anglo French empire we would have created by winning, that the Frenchness would have overwhelmed the Englishness and we would all now be speaking French (and there would be no one for Waterloo and Trafalgar to be against). A good one to lose, then, from the TSE pov.
    I'm not sure about that one. There was a strong English identity by the time of the 15th Century, with an emerging English literary scene.

    But, I think it's likely that England (still a wealthy and stable country) would have been constantly feeding France men and resources as it became embroiled in continental affairs, rather than maritime ones.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It's quite easy to be insouciant about inflation if you have a triple lock and relaxed about recessions if you're retired.

    Pensioners show notably less fortitude about their decision even in the abstract if the NHS, the service they depend on, might be affected.

    If you rely on savings you are not at all insouciant about inflation.

    Is it worth saying that not all pensioners voted Leave and not all Leave voters were pensioners?
    That's the trouble with any form of collective punishment.

    The triple lock is a bad policy which should go because it's a bad policy, not because you disapprove of the voting intentions of most pensioners.
    Some go further, and argue pensioners should be disenfranchised and children enfranchished, or that the vote should be subject to tests.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    edited February 14
    Correct. This is not Boris going rogue, this is a keynote speech by the Foriegn Secrety, cleared in advance by No.10 and representing the view of the Government.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,295
    Roger Scruton has an interesting piece in Telegraph today. Mainly on Brexit and national interest, but also shreds Corbyn's Labour:


    "...the mainstream Labour Party, which is now built on the continental model, as a mass movement of protest, which will take power only to protest at itself. It will then bequeath the ruins to its successor."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/14/tories-will-win-electorate-showing-prepared-put-national-interest/
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,172
    This is the real danger for Leavebollah. If they don't make Brexit appealing to the younger generations (fuck knows how) then it's not going to endure.

    Technological progress has done much to reduce cultural and national differences. Young people see this more than most of us and wonder what the utility of Brexit is.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,157
    Nigelb said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    And a rather more than trivial chance of their voting against.

    The only time May had shown any propensity whatever to gamble was when the odds were massively in her favour - and she got severely burned at the subsequent general election. Expect the procrastination to continue.
    Has Theresa had any political successes throughout her entire career? Perhaps early on when the kitten heels and 'the nasty party' remark landed her some good press. (But she probably got lucky there: she was merely pointing out a favourite taunt of the Tories' enemies rather than, as was reported, making a bold and frank assessment of there failings.) Other than that I can't think of much.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited February 14

    TGOHF said:

    Next up - how the Scots can still win at Culloden and the case for a second battle of Agincourt gains momentum on twitter.

    We lost the sequel to Agincourt.

    Patay was a disaster.

    How embarrassing is it to be at war with France for 100 years and still lose.

    In mitigation I suppose we were led by Frenchmen too.
    The English campaigns of the 1420s and the 1430s in France weren't unlike the strategic problem the British faced during the American Revolution: we were simply too small with too few men and resources to win in a country so large and populous.

    We had to win every single battle to stay on top. On the other hand, we only had to lose big one to lose the war.
    Or occupying a foreign land permanently can only really be done with the population's consent
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872
    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    Beyond slogans and soundbites she has no idea what her desired end state should be. That is the problem.
    Oh, she knows.

    She just believes in keeping it under her hat until she's ready.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. HYUFD, jein. William the Conqueror ended up (indirectly) killing 75% of Yorkshire's population to 'pacify' it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    Sandpit said:

    Correct. This is not Boris going rogue, this is a keynote speech by the Foriegn Secrety, cleared in advance by No.10 and representing the view of the Government.
    Whoever cleared Boris to criticise Remainers wasn’t doing him any favours.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    Nigelb said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    And a rather more than trivial chance of their voting against.

    The only time May had shown any propensity whatever to gamble was when the odds were massively in her favour - and she got severely burned at the subsequent general election. Expect the procrastination to continue.
    Has Theresa had any political successes throughout her entire career? Perhaps early on when the kitten heels and 'the nasty party' remark landed her some good press. (But she probably got lucky there: she was merely pointing out a favourite taunt of the Tories' enemies rather than, as was reported, making a bold and frank assessment of there failings.) Other than that I can't think of much.
    Well she has already made more progress in her negotiations with the EU than Cameron managed in his
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369

    Roger Scruton has an interesting piece in Telegraph today. Mainly on Brexit and national interest, but also shreds Corbyn's Labour:


    "...the mainstream Labour Party, which is now built on the continental model, as a mass movement of protest, which will take power only to protest at itself. It will then bequeath the ruins to its successor."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/14/tories-will-win-electorate-showing-prepared-put-national-interest/

    Blimey. Is Roger Scruton still with us? He was one of those in the 80s trying to put an intellectual and philosophical scaffolding around Thatcherism.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,201
    Mr Ace,

    How many people look back on their youth and think ... "How wise I was then. How I wish I still retained that experience and wisdom,"

    Unfortunately as we age, we lose those black and white certainties and gradually we become more nuanced. Why, some even change their voting pattern.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,116
    Devil’s Advocate: giving votes to the poor and ill-educated has been a disaster.

    The Left: That’s outrageous! How can you suggest such a Neanderthal attitude?

    Devil’s Advocate: It resulted in Brexit...

    The Left: He has a point you know......
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Sandpit said:

    Correct. This is not Boris going rogue, this is a keynote speech by the Foriegn Secrety, cleared in advance by No.10 and representing the view of the Government.
    Whoever cleared Boris to criticise Remainers wasn’t doing him any favours.
    The critism is of those who wish to prevent Brexit from happening, not of those who voted Remain. It’s also one line in an otherwise positive speech about the opportunities of Brexit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200
    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    "It's absolutely amazing how much the colour of one's passport seems to matter to people."

    It really doesn't. No one I've spoken to in the last few weeks give a monkeys. But I suppose I live in an odd part of the world now, and meet very eccentric people.

    However, I thought that when I watched Question Time from Boston a couple of years ago and heard all the pro-Remainers. Perhaps the BBC knows more than I do, I thought. I don't live there anymore and my experiences could be flawed.Perhaps Boston will register a massive Yes to the EU?

    Likewise, I've yet to meet anyone who's bothered about trans-gender toilets or who supports pre-pubertal children changing sex. How nice it must be to live somewhere more typical.

    Irony doesn't work well in print, does it!

    As I remarked elsewhere, I don't give a whatsit, so long as my passport gets me through the various barriers which it's intended to get me through.
    On your last paragraph I've met a couple of people who don't much like the idea of transgender toilets and a couple who've been puzzled over the idea of pre-pubertal children changing sex.

    However I've been out of my usual habitats for some four weeks and, when I get back, might check. Although pre-pubertal children changing sex isn't a common subject of discussion among my circle and I might get some strange looks.
  • ABLAABLABLAABL Posts: 7
    I think this is why Labour leadership are staying clear of Brexit as it's a poisoned chalice...

    https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/labours-poll-dip-genuine-drop-or-tory-have-cake-and-eat-it-related
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    And a rather more than trivial chance of their voting against.

    The only time May had shown any propensity whatever to gamble was when the odds were massively in her favour - and she got severely burned at the subsequent general election. Expect the procrastination to continue.
    Has Theresa had any political successes throughout her entire career? Perhaps early on when the kitten heels and 'the nasty party' remark landed her some good press. (But she probably got lucky there: she was merely pointing out a favourite taunt of the Tories' enemies rather than, as was reported, making a bold and frank assessment of there failings.) Other than that I can't think of much.
    Well she has already made more progress in her negotiations with the EU than Cameron managed in his
    Really?
This discussion has been closed.