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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of BoJo’s big Brexit speech the TMay successor bett

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited February 14 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of BoJo’s big Brexit speech the TMay successor betting edges further to an Etonian, but not the Foreign Secretary

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Comments

  • She won’t fight 2022.
  • Primus inter pares again
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200
    Third. Although Mr E posting twice does upset things!
  • Boris messed up his reply when asked if he was going to resign this year.

    I laid Boris in the last Tory leadership race and made a profit.

    I’m doing the same in this contest and I think I’ll get the same result.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    Rees-Mogg has nothing to fear from Boris based on that speech.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited February 14
    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,200
    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition WHEN Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    Fixed it for you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition WHEN Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    Fixed it for you.
    Boris is a proven election winner with charisma, I would not be so confident Corbyn will beat him and it will certainly be a big ask for Corbyn to get a working majority against Boris
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,010
    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    edited February 14
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition WHEN Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    Fixed it for you.
    Boris is a proven election winner with charisma, I would not be so confident Corbyn will beat him and it will certainly be a big ask for Corbyn to get a working majority against Boris
    Has he still got it?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,014
    FPT (missed the thread change):

    For those interested in my animal welfare issues, I had quite a lot to do with this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/14/foie-gras-and-badger-culling-would-be-banned-under-labour-proposals

    The Guardian has grabbed the token issues in its headline but the proposals on farm subsidies are a very major step, developing further the approach proposed by Gove, and some of the rest is substantial too. It's great to see a cross-party consensus emerging on much of this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited February 14
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Only if she stays on until 2022 and wins an overall majority, though if she did serve that long she would be the longest serving post-war PM after Thatcher
  • Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Now that's a very big shout.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 1,344
    So I watched the speech.
    It wasn’t one of his finest performances, but Boris is at least interesting to watch, unlike May.

    I think he did very well to lay out the three fears held about Brexit: influence, identity, and economy.

    His response on identity was strong, the other two very weak. As Foreign Secretary one might expect a very strong answer on influence. It was actually very cursory. Just banalities about how much we spend on defence.

    As for economy, despite mentioning, sotto voce, a Brexit bonus, I don’t think he really believes in the economic case. His answer seemed to be that if we align to EU rules it should at least be our decision - that’s a democratic argument, not an economic one.

    Two final observations.

    He pretty much suggested that did not agree with a migration cap, and although he said “some argue we have had too much low skill immigration” he didn’t seem convinced himself.

    And - his support for May was equivocal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition WHEN Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    Fixed it for you.
    Boris is a proven election winner with charisma, I would not be so confident Corbyn will beat him and it will certainly be a big ask for Corbyn to get a working majority against Boris
    Has he still got it?
    He effectively led the winning Leave campaign just 2 years ago
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    In such circumstances the Tories would have to be idiotic beyond even their track record to turn to JRM. Next generation should be the watchword.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    I think Sean may need a bigger boat :D
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 639
    edited February 14
    Rees-Mogg seems the clearest example yet of why the favourite never wins the Tory leadership. What has he done? He's been in parliament since 2010, never been a minister, and is basically only notable because of social media memes. Then there's his tax haven money, which would make him an electoral sitting duck given the current public mood.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited February 14
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    In such circumstances the Tories would have to be idiotic beyond even their track record to turn to JRM. Next generation should be the watchword.
    After losing power and going into opposition the Tories almost always move right e.g. Major was followed by Hague and IDS, Heath by Thatcher etc.

    A hapless Corbyn government could also become unpopular pretty quickly
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    In such circumstances the Tories would have to be idiotic beyond even their track record to turn to JRM. Next generation should be the watchword.
    After losing power and going into opposition the Tories almost always move right e.g. Major was followed by Hague and IDS, Heath by Thatcher etc
    As I said.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369
    Jacob Rees-Mogg needs to get a job in order to have a prayer of getting into the final two. He can't be parachuted into the Cabinet and there is no parliamentary committee on nappies and nannies he could chair. I'd be inclined to back him to be next Speaker except it is Labour's turn.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    Boris Johnson manages to upstage his own speech. Not clever.

    His general strategy for reconciling with Remain supporters seems to be to lie about his own past behaviour. That's worked for him frequently in the past, so you can understand why he would try. This may well be a leap too far even for him, however.
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg needs to get a job in order to have a prayer of getting into the final two. He can't be parachuted into the Cabinet and there is no parliamentary committee on nappies and nannies he could chair. I'd be inclined to back him to be next Speaker except it is Labour's turn.

    It isn't anyone's turn, that's a total myth that was broken when Betty Boothroyd was replaced by Martin anyway.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975

    FPT (missed the thread change):

    For those interested in my animal welfare issues, I had quite a lot to do with this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/14/foie-gras-and-badger-culling-would-be-banned-under-labour-proposals

    The Guardian has grabbed the token issues in its headline but the proposals on farm subsidies are a very major step, developing further the approach proposed by Gove, and some of the rest is substantial too. It's great to see a cross-party consensus emerging on much of this.

    First, good work on the animal welfare.

    But also it's excellent news re. the Hunting Act. This neatly solves the Cons' conundrum of how to motivate the many thousands of hunt supporters to leaflet and canvas, while not, a la GE2017, toxifying the Party by bringing up foxhunting as an issue!

    Many thanks!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    Andrew said:

    Rees-Mogg seems the clearest example yet of why the favourite never wins the Tory leadership. What has he done? He's been in parliament since 2010, never been a minister, and is basically only notable because of social media memes. Then there's his tax haven money, which would make him an electoral sitting duck given the current public mood.

    The week after Cameron resigned showed how quickly events can move.

    Pin sticking may be the best approach.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,877
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    TOPPING said:

    FPT (missed the thread change):

    For those interested in my animal welfare issues, I had quite a lot to do with this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/14/foie-gras-and-badger-culling-would-be-banned-under-labour-proposals

    The Guardian has grabbed the token issues in its headline but the proposals on farm subsidies are a very major step, developing further the approach proposed by Gove, and some of the rest is substantial too. It's great to see a cross-party consensus emerging on much of this.

    First, good work on the animal welfare.

    But also it's excellent news re. the Hunting Act. This neatly solves the Cons' conundrum of how to motivate the many thousands of hunt supporters to leaflet and canvas, while not, a la GE2017, toxifying the Party by bringing up foxhunting as an issue!

    Many thanks!
    They don't seem to have worked out what more they can do on hunting, and the suggestions in the article are flaky in the extreme.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,881

    I'd be inclined to back [Jacob Rees-Mogg] to be next Speaker except it is Labour's turn.

    Labour has Bercow ;)
  • AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872
    Boris will be acutely aware of where he stands in the betting. He follows the markets avidly.

    But, he can't out Rees-Mogg Rees-Mogg, and Boris being Boris is no longer enough.

    He should have addressed his own failings in the leadership campaign after July 2016, but has singularly failed to do so.

    I don't see any prospect of him ever doing so, or changing, so I am laying him for good now.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995
    Will Corbyn kick off a trade war with France and the wider EU over Foi gras ?

    Haggis, sausages and black pudding look obvious targets in tit for tat bans.

    Anything in the Labour plans re Halal meat ?*




    *rhetorical question.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,872
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    May is safe as long as she's not a clear electoral drag.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,995

    Boris will be acutely aware of where he stands in the betting. He follows the markets avidly.

    But, he can't out Rees-Mogg Rees-Mogg, and Boris being Boris is no longer enough.

    He should have addressed his own failings in the leadership campaign after July 2016, but has singularly failed to do so.

    I don't see any prospect of him ever doing so, or changing, so I am laying him for good now.

    Boris's best hope is a dream team to bolster his offering.

    Needs Gove , Rudd as a minimum - if he could co-opt JRM he might be nailed on.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,517
    I don't think Boris' attempt to rebrand Brexit as a liberal, internationalist pro-immigration project will work.

    Which is a pity, as that would really knock away a lot of its support.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    edited February 14

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably getting 22 fewer seats than Stoiber got in 2002 and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough seats to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,369

    Jacob Rees-Mogg needs to get a job in order to have a prayer of getting into the final two. He can't be parachuted into the Cabinet and there is no parliamentary committee on nappies and nannies he could chair. I'd be inclined to back him to be next Speaker except it is Labour's turn.

    It isn't anyone's turn, that's a total myth that was broken when Betty Boothroyd was replaced by Martin anyway.
    Cool. So JRM for Speaker. You heard it here first.

    On the leadership, JRM can only hope to be kingmaker, lending his wodge of supporters in return for whatever it is he wants when the ballot is held.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FPT (missed the thread change):

    For those interested in my animal welfare issues, I had quite a lot to do with this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/14/foie-gras-and-badger-culling-would-be-banned-under-labour-proposals

    The Guardian has grabbed the token issues in its headline but the proposals on farm subsidies are a very major step, developing further the approach proposed by Gove, and some of the rest is substantial too. It's great to see a cross-party consensus emerging on much of this.

    First, good work on the animal welfare.

    But also it's excellent news re. the Hunting Act. This neatly solves the Cons' conundrum of how to motivate the many thousands of hunt supporters to leaflet and canvas, while not, a la GE2017, toxifying the Party by bringing up foxhunting as an issue!

    Many thanks!
    They don't seem to have worked out what more they can do on hunting, and the suggestions in the article are flaky in the extreme.
    I suppose at a stretch they can make it a national policing priority and hence allocate more police resources to charging around the countryside.

    Other than that? When it comes to hunting Labour can be pretty viscerally spiteful so who knows?
  • HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,543
    edited February 14
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FPT (missed the thread change):

    For those interested in my animal welfare issues, I had quite a lot to do with this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/14/foie-gras-and-badger-culling-would-be-banned-under-labour-proposals

    The Guardian has grabbed the token issues in its headline but the proposals on farm subsidies are a very major step, developing further the approach proposed by Gove, and some of the rest is substantial too. It's great to see a cross-party consensus emerging on much of this.

    First, good work on the animal welfare.

    But also it's excellent news re. the Hunting Act. This neatly solves the Cons' conundrum of how to motivate the many thousands of hunt supporters to leaflet and canvas, while not, a la GE2017, toxifying the Party by bringing up foxhunting as an issue!

    Many thanks!
    They don't seem to have worked out what more they can do on hunting, and the suggestions in the article are flaky in the extreme.
    I suppose at a stretch they can make it a national policing priority and hence allocate more police resources to charging around the countryside.

    Other than that? When it comes to hunting Labour can be pretty viscerally spiteful so who knows?
    It isn't unreasonable to enforce to ensure that the intention of the ban is achieved in reality. The problem is coming up with practical ways to achieve this. Promising to dedicate more police to it is a promise to the gallery that will never be kept.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,511
    Go Bojo Go!!!!!!! :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117
    Same .... diff’rent day. Lay the first three favourites (and the ineligible candidates).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    On topic, it seems that there's at least a 30% chance that the Gods wish to destroy the Conservative party.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 639
    Sean_F said:


    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.

    It seems absurd at first glance, but I think you might be right (and I'm no fan ether).

    Unless, of course, health issues get in the way - she'd be 71 then.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Sure but May to stay on and then lose the next election is implied at around 50-1 if you compare the Mogg next PM and next Tory leader prices. How would you price that ?

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,511
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably getting 22 fewer seats than Stoiber got in 2002 and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough seats to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    I doubt Theresa herself wants to campaign in another general election.

    Now the polls have turned in her favour I concede she's safe until least Spring 2019 though...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,892
    My take on Johnson's speech. It was a speech about Remainers more than a speech to Remainers. Big focus on Remain arguments and why they are invalid. So I am guessing a speech to Leavers to reassure them that Remain criticisms of Brexit can be discounted. Interesting and fluent speech nevertheless, full of assertions, many of which don't stack up. In particular that Brexit is the great liberalising project.

    Full text and video here: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/full-text-boris-johnsons-brexit-speech/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FPT (missed the thread change):

    For those interested in my animal welfare issues, I had quite a lot to do with this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/14/foie-gras-and-badger-culling-would-be-banned-under-labour-proposals

    The Guardian has grabbed the token issues in its headline but the proposals on farm subsidies are a very major step, developing further the approach proposed by Gove, and some of the rest is substantial too. It's great to see a cross-party consensus emerging on much of this.

    First, good work on the animal welfare.

    But also it's excellent news re. the Hunting Act. This neatly solves the Cons' conundrum of how to motivate the many thousands of hunt supporters to leaflet and canvas, while not, a la GE2017, toxifying the Party by bringing up foxhunting as an issue!

    Many thanks!
    They don't seem to have worked out what more they can do on hunting, and the suggestions in the article are flaky in the extreme.
    I suppose at a stretch they can make it a national policing priority and hence allocate more police resources to charging around the countryside.

    Other than that? When it comes to hunting Labour can be pretty viscerally spiteful so who knows?
    It isn't unreasonable to enforce to ensure that the intention of the ban is achieved in reality. The problem is coming up with practical ways to achieve this. Promising to dedicate more police to it is a promise to the gallery that will never be kept.
    Nor I imagine might it be that popular. But if I were a Labour strategist I would have noted well the response to Tezza bringing it up in the first place.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370

    On topic, it seems that there's at least a 30% chance that the Gods wish to destroy the Conservative party.

    42.7% chance the next PM is one of Mogg, Corbyn or Johnson according to Betfair.. Jesus H.
  • Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Sure but May to stay on and then lose the next election is implied at around 50-1 if you compare the Mogg next PM and next Tory leader prices. How would you price that ?

    I can’t reconcile it.

    I tried to work out the scenarios where Corbyn becomes PM without an election and struggled.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    FF43 said:

    My take on Johnson's speech. It was a speech about Remainers more than a speech to Remainers. Big focus on Remain arguments and why they are invalid. So I am guessing a speech to Leavers to reassure them that Remain criticisms of Brexit can be discounted. Interesting and fluent speech nevertheless, full of assertions, many of which don't stack up. In particular that Brexit is the great liberalising project.

    Full text and video here: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/full-text-boris-johnsons-brexit-speech/

    I'd say that's about right. Boris Johnson must surely have been aware that Remain voters would find his arguments wholly unconvincing and the language certainly doesn't look as though he was genuinely trying to reach out to them. It's about making Leave voters feel good (and, if they are Conservative members, in due course to vote for him as leader).
  • Pulpstar said:

    On topic, it seems that there's at least a 30% chance that the Gods wish to destroy the Conservative party.

    42.7% chance the next PM is one of Mogg, Corbyn or Johnson according to Betfair.. Jesus H.
    This is the time to remember all the times Betfair was wrong.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    FF43 said:

    My take on Johnson's speech. It was a speech about Remainers more than a speech to Remainers. Big focus on Remain arguments and why they are invalid. So I am guessing a speech to Leavers to reassure them that Remain criticisms of Brexit can be discounted. Interesting and fluent speech nevertheless, full of assertions, many of which don't stack up. In particular that Brexit is the great liberalising project.

    Full text and video here: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/full-text-boris-johnsons-brexit-speech/

    It's interesting that even Johnson says that if the pro-Europeans had made the political case unapologetically they may have won. I suspect he secretly realises he missed his political calling and has been on the wrong side of the argument all these years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Merkel is not very charismatic or a great speaker or natural campaigner either but like May more reserved and serious, plus of course May still got 42% despite all that last time and own goals like the dementia tax which will not be repeated
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    Pulpstar said:

    On topic, it seems that there's at least a 30% chance that the Gods wish to destroy the Conservative party.

    42.7% chance the next PM is one of Mogg, Corbyn or Johnson according to Betfair.. Jesus H.
    It's not as though there's some wonderful choice out there among the also-rans. Britain might not be going to hell in a handcart, but purgatory on a pushbike beckons.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,256
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably getting 22 fewer seats than Stoiber got in 2002 and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough seats to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    I doubt Theresa herself wants to campaign in another general election.

    Now the polls have turned in her favour I concede she's safe until least Spring 2019 though...
    If the polls still stay reasonably good for the Tories and she gets a bounce post completion of a Brexit deal she may well be willing to stay on, it all depends on events, certainly Corbyn is good at rallying the left but does not have the appeal to the centre ground or natural leadership skills of Blair still leaving an opening for May
  • FF43 said:

    My take on Johnson's speech. It was a speech about Remainers more than a speech to Remainers. Big focus on Remain arguments and why they are invalid. So I am guessing a speech to Leavers to reassure them that Remain criticisms of Brexit can be discounted. Interesting and fluent speech nevertheless, full of assertions, many of which don't stack up. In particular that Brexit is the great liberalising project.

    Full text and video here: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/full-text-boris-johnsons-brexit-speech/

    I'd say that's about right. Boris Johnson must surely have been aware that Remain voters would find his arguments wholly unconvincing and the language certainly doesn't look as though he was genuinely trying to reach out to them. It's about making Leave voters feel good (and, if they are Conservative members, in due course to vote for him as leader).
    He knew he couldn't convince people like you.

    He was aiming for people like me, and, yes, I am a little more persuaded than I was that the form of Brexit we will get is one I can stomach even if I did not vote for it in 2016.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    FF43 said:

    My take on Johnson's speech. It was a speech about Remainers more than a speech to Remainers. Big focus on Remain arguments and why they are invalid. So I am guessing a speech to Leavers to reassure them that Remain criticisms of Brexit can be discounted. Interesting and fluent speech nevertheless, full of assertions, many of which don't stack up. In particular that Brexit is the great liberalising project.

    Full text and video here: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/full-text-boris-johnsons-brexit-speech/

    I'd say that's about right. Boris Johnson must surely have been aware that Remain voters would find his arguments wholly unconvincing and the language certainly doesn't look as though he was genuinely trying to reach out to them. It's about making Leave voters feel good (and, if they are Conservative members, in due course to vote for him as leader).
    He knew he couldn't convince people like you.

    He was aiming for people like me, and, yes, I am a little more persuaded than I was that the form of Brexit we will get is one I can stomach even if I did not vote for it in 2016.
    What have you found persuasive?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    FPT (missed the thread change):

    For those interested in my animal welfare issues, I had quite a lot to do with this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/14/foie-gras-and-badger-culling-would-be-banned-under-labour-proposals

    The Guardian has grabbed the token issues in its headline but the proposals on farm subsidies are a very major step, developing further the approach proposed by Gove, and some of the rest is substantial too. It's great to see a cross-party consensus emerging on much of this.

    Sounds like good progress on a cross-party basis. Well done. :+1:
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    The markets are almost always wrong about politics.

    Back in the 80s, the markets said that Norman Tebbitt would succeed Margaret Thatcher.

    Then Michael Heseltine would succeed her.

    The markets said that David Miliband would be Labour leader, that David Cameron would lose the 2015 election, that Ed Miliband would be PM, that Remain would win the referendum, that Clinton would be president, that Chuka Umunna would be Labour leader, that May would win a landslide in 2017.

    Now they are saying Mogg will succeed May.

    As always they will be wrong wrong wrong.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006

    Pulpstar said:

    On topic, it seems that there's at least a 30% chance that the Gods wish to destroy the Conservative party.

    42.7% chance the next PM is one of Mogg, Corbyn or Johnson according to Betfair.. Jesus H.
    It's not as though there's some wonderful choice out there among the also-rans. Britain might not be going to hell in a handcart, but purgatory on a pushbike beckons.
    I put it to you that the Remoaner idea of Purgatory is that Brexit will succeed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 4,334

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Sure but May to stay on and then lose the next election is implied at around 50-1 if you compare the Mogg next PM and next Tory leader prices. How would you price that ?

    I can’t reconcile it.

    I tried to work out the scenarios where Corbyn becomes PM without an election and struggled.
    Maybe arbitrage it instead.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Sure but May to stay on and then lose the next election is implied at around 50-1 if you compare the Mogg next PM and next Tory leader prices. How would you price that ?

    I can’t reconcile it.

    I tried to work out the scenarios where Corbyn becomes PM without an election and struggled.
    Maybe arbitrage it instead.
    Being on the premium charge sadly makes that impossible, I'm simply laying Mogg on the next PM market at 6.0.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    stevef said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On topic, it seems that there's at least a 30% chance that the Gods wish to destroy the Conservative party.

    42.7% chance the next PM is one of Mogg, Corbyn or Johnson according to Betfair.. Jesus H.
    It's not as though there's some wonderful choice out there among the also-rans. Britain might not be going to hell in a handcart, but purgatory on a pushbike beckons.
    I put it to you that the Remoaner idea of Purgatory is that Brexit will succeed.
    For the second time, I suggest the word Remoaner is not conducive to polite discourse. Your definition of the word (like your definition of many things) seems highly elastic and to suit your needs at any given moment.

    Brexit has already succeeded in making the country poorer than it would have been, more divided and unhappier. That will only continue.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Sure but May to stay on and then lose the next election is implied at around 50-1 if you compare the Mogg next PM and next Tory leader prices. How would you price that ?

    I can’t reconcile it.

    I tried to work out the scenarios where Corbyn becomes PM without an election and struggled.
    Maybe arbitrage it instead.
    It is impossible for Corbyn to become PM without an election unless the Tories deliberately (as in 1905) decided to resign and step down as the government. It isnt going to happen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Sure but May to stay on and then lose the next election is implied at around 50-1 if you compare the Mogg next PM and next Tory leader prices. How would you price that ?

    I can’t reconcile it.

    I tried to work out the scenarios where Corbyn becomes PM without an election and struggled.
    Corbyn taking power in some odd left wing coup (Or via an election) doesn't affect the analysis here though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    stevef said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Sure but May to stay on and then lose the next election is implied at around 50-1 if you compare the Mogg next PM and next Tory leader prices. How would you price that ?

    I can’t reconcile it.

    I tried to work out the scenarios where Corbyn becomes PM without an election and struggled.
    Maybe arbitrage it instead.
    It is impossible for Corbyn to become PM without an election unless the Tories deliberately (as in 1905) decided to resign and step down as the government. It isnt going to happen.
    What if JRM became leader and a group of MPs resigned the Tory whip en masse and backed Corbyn as PM?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Good afternoon, fellow Moggites.

    I still can't see it. When was the last time a backbencher with no ministerial experience became PM?
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006

    stevef said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On topic, it seems that there's at least a 30% chance that the Gods wish to destroy the Conservative party.

    42.7% chance the next PM is one of Mogg, Corbyn or Johnson according to Betfair.. Jesus H.
    It's not as though there's some wonderful choice out there among the also-rans. Britain might not be going to hell in a handcart, but purgatory on a pushbike beckons.
    I put it to you that the Remoaner idea of Purgatory is that Brexit will succeed.
    For the second time, I suggest the word Remoaner is not conducive to polite discourse. Your definition of the word (like your definition of many things) seems highly elastic and to suit your needs at any given moment.

    Brexit has already succeeded in making the country poorer than it would have been, more divided and unhappier. That will only continue.
    And for the second time I point out to you that some of your language -like Fascist -is not conducive to polite discourse. Set an example.

    There has to be a distinction between that majority of those who voted Remain who accept the democratic will of the People, and that minority which does not.

    I dispute that Brexit has made us poorer. Indeed, nearly every economic prediction that was made by Project Fear during the referendum has not come true. Where is the mass unemployment, the Recession, the plunging growth figures, the emergency budget.

    The only economic problem is the fear that Remoaners have created.
  • Good afternoon, fellow Moggites.

    I still can't see it. When was the last time a backbencher with no ministerial experience became PM?

    Two out of our last four PMs had no ministerial experience before they became PM.

    Between them they are the only Lab and Con leaders to have won a majority for their parties in a total of 70 years.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006

    Good afternoon, fellow Moggites.

    I still can't see it. When was the last time a backbencher with no ministerial experience became PM?

    Two out of our last four PMs had no ministerial experience before they became PM.

    Between them they are the only Lab and Con leaders to have won a majority for their parties in a total of 70 years.
    But they all had shadow ministerial experience.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 34,506
    stevef said:

    I put it to you that the Remoaner idea of Purgatory is that Brexit will succeed.

    Define "succeed"

    BoZo as PM would be success for him.

    A FTA with Togo would be success for Fox.

    BoZo not becoming PM would be success for Gove.

    Land Rover moving production abroad would be success for BMW.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On topic, it seems that there's at least a 30% chance that the Gods wish to destroy the Conservative party.

    42.7% chance the next PM is one of Mogg, Corbyn or Johnson according to Betfair.. Jesus H.
    It's not as though there's some wonderful choice out there among the also-rans. Britain might not be going to hell in a handcart, but purgatory on a pushbike beckons.
    I put it to you that the Remoaner idea of Purgatory is that Brexit will succeed.
    For the second time, I suggest the word Remoaner is not conducive to polite discourse. Your definition of the word (like your definition of many things) seems highly elastic and to suit your needs at any given moment.

    Brexit has already succeeded in making the country poorer than it would have been, more divided and unhappier. That will only continue.
    And for the second time I point out to you that some of your language -like Fascist -is not conducive to polite discourse. Set an example.

    There has to be a distinction between that majority of those who voted Remain who accept the democratic will of the People, and that minority which does not.

    I dispute that Brexit has made us poorer. Indeed, nearly every economic prediction that was made by Project Fear during the referendum has not come true. Where is the mass unemployment, the Recession, the plunging growth figures, the emergency budget.

    The only economic problem is the fear that Remoaners have created.
    My use of fascist is precise. You claim to be able to deduce the People's Will (your capitalisation) from the referendum vote and as a result seek to delegitimise any response that does not fit with your predetermined idea of what the People's Will is. That is an aspect of fascism. In the words of Umberto Eco:

    " "Selective Populism" – The People, conceived monolithically, have a Common Will, distinct from and superior to the viewpoint of any individual. As no mass of people can ever be truly unanimous, the Leader holds himself out as the interpreter of the popular will (though truly he dictates it). Fascists use this concept to delegitimize democratic institutions they accuse of "no longer represent[ing] the Voice of the People." "
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    Scott_P said:

    stevef said:

    I put it to you that the Remoaner idea of Purgatory is that Brexit will succeed.

    Define "succeed"

    BoZo as PM would be success for him.

    A FTA with Togo would be success for Fox.

    BoZo not becoming PM would be success for Gove.

    Land Rover moving production abroad would be success for BMW.
    Define succeed? That the British economy will thrive under Brexit, (providing Corbyn doesnt wreck the economy), and that we will move forward as an independent country.

    Why do you always associate Brexit with Johnson and Gove, when people on the left like Benn, Corbyn, Skinner, Field have advocated it?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,872

    stevef said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Sure but May to stay on and then lose the next election is implied at around 50-1 if you compare the Mogg next PM and next Tory leader prices. How would you price that ?

    I can’t reconcile it.

    I tried to work out the scenarios where Corbyn becomes PM without an election and struggled.
    Maybe arbitrage it instead.
    It is impossible for Corbyn to become PM without an election unless the Tories deliberately (as in 1905) decided to resign and step down as the government. It isnt going to happen.
    What if JRM became leader and a group of MPs resigned the Tory whip en masse and backed Corbyn as PM?
    More plausible May caves in to BINO. 20 or so irreconcilables resign the whip and no confidence her. Under the FTPA, Corbyn becomes PM and has 2 weeks to fail to form a govt. before an election is called AIUI. Unlikely? Maybe. But not entirely impossible.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think May will stay at least until April 2019 and Brexit terms are concluded and any transition agreed.

    I think Boris is then more likely than JRM to succeed her as Tory leader and PM but JRM has a good chance of being the next Tory leader of the opposition if Boris loses the next general election and Corbyn becomes PM

    I think May will be leading the Conservatives into the 2027 general election.
    Certainly possible. Mrs Thatcher was very unpopular about two years into her premiership when the Brixton riots were taking place and the SDP had just been launched.
    But Mrs Thatcher had never lost a majority.

    At every general election she fought as leader the Tories were always better off in seats than when she became leader.
    Merkel of course failed to get a majority in 2005 when she was expected to win comfortably and had to form a coalition with the SPD, yet in 2009 she won enough to govern alone with her FDP allies and never looked back
    And?

    The debates are here to stay, Mrs May is crap at debates, and no leader will be able to chicken out of them again.

    That alone will require a new leader before the next general election.

    Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning and engaging with hoi pollio, which is kinda of important in a general election campaign
    Sure but May to stay on and then lose the next election is implied at around 50-1 if you compare the Mogg next PM and next Tory leader prices. How would you price that ?

    I can’t reconcile it.

    I tried to work out the scenarios where Corbyn becomes PM without an election and struggled.
    Maybe arbitrage it instead.
    Being on the premium charge sadly makes that impossible, I'm simply laying Mogg on the next PM market at 6.0.
    Tying up capital on the arb even if you're not on the premium charge.


    I've been laying at 5s on the next leader, where the book is green so it's easier (not big sums mind).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,653
    Mr. Eagles, going from Leader of the Opposition to PM is an entirely different kettle of fish, and you know it.
  • Mr. Eagles, going from Leader of the Opposition to PM is an entirely different kettle of fish, and you know it.

    No ministerial experience though.

    No time for a novice etc...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    stevef said:

    Scott_P said:

    stevef said:

    I put it to you that the Remoaner idea of Purgatory is that Brexit will succeed.

    Define "succeed"

    BoZo as PM would be success for him.

    A FTA with Togo would be success for Fox.

    BoZo not becoming PM would be success for Gove.

    Land Rover moving production abroad would be success for BMW.
    Define succeed? That the British economy will thrive under Brexit, (providing Corbyn doesnt wreck the economy), and that we will move forward as an independent country.

    Why do you always associate Brexit with Johnson and Gove, when people on the left like Benn, Corbyn, Skinner, Field have advocated it?
    So we are back to the "price worth paying" vs "Brexit Bonus" dichotomy.

    Which is it with you?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,296
    Roses are red

    Violets are blue

    I'm for the many

    Not just the few
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    edited February 14

    Good afternoon, fellow Moggites.

    I still can't see it. When was the last time a backbencher with no ministerial experience became PM?

    Two out of our last four PMs had no ministerial experience before they became PM.

    Between them they are the only Lab and Con leaders to have won a majority for their parties in a total of 70 years.
    Not sure what you are saying here. Heath? Wilson (twice)? MacMillan? Thatcher 3x.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,117

    Jacob Rees-Mogg needs to get a job in order to have a prayer of getting into the final two. He can't be parachuted into the Cabinet and there is no parliamentary committee on nappies and nannies he could chair. I'd be inclined to back him to be next Speaker except it is Labour's turn.

    He should be much shorter odds for next Speaker than next Leader.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,370

    Good afternoon, fellow Moggites.

    I still can't see it. When was the last time a backbencher with no ministerial experience became PM?

    Two out of our last four PMs had no ministerial experience before they became PM.

    Between them they are the only Lab and Con leaders to have won a majority for their parties in a total of 70 years.
    Since 1948 I make it a total of 10 "majority" winning leaders...

    Attlee (50), Churchill (51), Eden (55), Macmillan (59), Wilson (64/66), Heath (70), Thatcher (79/83/87), Major (92), Blair (97/01/05), Cameron (15)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555
    John Rentoul, not notably hostile to Leave, has not exactly given Boris Johnson's speech a rave review:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-brexit-speech-remainers-eu-support-what-he-meant-said-a8210076.html
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    TOPPING said:

    stevef said:

    Scott_P said:

    stevef said:

    I put it to you that the Remoaner idea of Purgatory is that Brexit will succeed.

    Define "succeed"

    BoZo as PM would be success for him.

    A FTA with Togo would be success for Fox.

    BoZo not becoming PM would be success for Gove.

    Land Rover moving production abroad would be success for BMW.
    Define succeed? That the British economy will thrive under Brexit, (providing Corbyn doesnt wreck the economy), and that we will move forward as an independent country.

    Why do you always associate Brexit with Johnson and Gove, when people on the left like Benn, Corbyn, Skinner, Field have advocated it?
    So we are back to the "price worth paying" vs "Brexit Bonus" dichotomy.

    Which is it with you?
    Brexit will succeed.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,646
    dixiedean said:

    More plausible May caves in to BINO. 20 or so irreconcilables resign the whip and no confidence her. Under the FTPA, Corbyn becomes PM and has 2 weeks to fail to form a govt. before an election is called AIUI. Unlikely? Maybe. But not entirely impossible.

    He doesn't become PM unless he can put together a majority first, or appear to be in a position to do so.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006
    Sandpit said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg needs to get a job in order to have a prayer of getting into the final two. He can't be parachuted into the Cabinet and there is no parliamentary committee on nappies and nannies he could chair. I'd be inclined to back him to be next Speaker except it is Labour's turn.

    He should be much shorter odds for next Speaker than next Leader.
    The Speaker will never be a divisive figure. He or she has to be someone who can be seen as impartial.
  • DavidL said:

    Good afternoon, fellow Moggites.

    I still can't see it. When was the last time a backbencher with no ministerial experience became PM?

    Two out of our last four PMs had no ministerial experience before they became PM.

    Between them they are the only Lab and Con leaders to have won a majority for their parties in a total of 70 years.
    Not sure what you are saying here. Heath? Wilson (twice)? MacMillan? Thatcher 3x.
    44 years = Last Labour leader other than Blair to win a majority

    26 years = Last Tory leader other than Cameron to win a majority

    44 + 26 = 70 years.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,975
    stevef said:

    TOPPING said:

    stevef said:

    Scott_P said:

    stevef said:

    I put it to you that the Remoaner idea of Purgatory is that Brexit will succeed.

    Define "succeed"

    BoZo as PM would be success for him.

    A FTA with Togo would be success for Fox.

    BoZo not becoming PM would be success for Gove.

    Land Rover moving production abroad would be success for BMW.
    Define succeed? That the British economy will thrive under Brexit, (providing Corbyn doesnt wreck the economy), and that we will move forward as an independent country.

    Why do you always associate Brexit with Johnson and Gove, when people on the left like Benn, Corbyn, Skinner, Field have advocated it?
    So we are back to the "price worth paying" vs "Brexit Bonus" dichotomy.

    Which is it with you?
    Brexit will succeed.
    Hmm.

    Don't get me wrong, I bloody love your anti-Jezza rants, can't get enough of them, but what exactly do you mean by "Brexit will succeed"?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 34,506
    stevef said:

    Brexit will succeed.

    Define succeed
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494

    DavidL said:

    Good afternoon, fellow Moggites.

    I still can't see it. When was the last time a backbencher with no ministerial experience became PM?

    Two out of our last four PMs had no ministerial experience before they became PM.

    Between them they are the only Lab and Con leaders to have won a majority for their parties in a total of 70 years.
    Not sure what you are saying here. Heath? Wilson (twice)? MacMillan? Thatcher 3x.
    44 years = Last Labour leader other than Blair to win a majority

    26 years = Last Tory leader other than Cameron to win a majority

    44 + 26 = 70 years.
    Hmm,,,Did you have a hand in those Brexit assessment computations?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,494
    Just refreshed this thread and it still seems to confirm that JRM is the betting favourite for next leader. It's just totally bizarre.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good afternoon, fellow Moggites.

    I still can't see it. When was the last time a backbencher with no ministerial experience became PM?

    Two out of our last four PMs had no ministerial experience before they became PM.

    Between them they are the only Lab and Con leaders to have won a majority for their parties in a total of 70 years.
    Not sure what you are saying here. Heath? Wilson (twice)? MacMillan? Thatcher 3x.
    44 years = Last Labour leader other than Blair to win a majority

    26 years = Last Tory leader other than Cameron to win a majority

    44 + 26 = 70 years.
    Hmm,,,Did you have a hand in those Brexit assessment computations?
    I did contribute to a Brexit assessment on the financial services industry back in April 2016 but that was for work.

    My erm robust interpretation was that we’d be screwed in all but one scenario* but we shouldn’t worry it’s not like the financial services contribute much to the Exchequer.

    *BINO
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,555

    dixiedean said:

    More plausible May caves in to BINO. 20 or so irreconcilables resign the whip and no confidence her. Under the FTPA, Corbyn becomes PM and has 2 weeks to fail to form a govt. before an election is called AIUI. Unlikely? Maybe. But not entirely impossible.

    He doesn't become PM unless he can put together a majority first, or appear to be in a position to do so.
    If the Conservative government collapses in disarray under the weight of Brexit, that party will presumably not want an early election. Accordingly Labour might be able to form an administration with the Conservatives abstaining on votes of confidence.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,646

    dixiedean said:

    More plausible May caves in to BINO. 20 or so irreconcilables resign the whip and no confidence her. Under the FTPA, Corbyn becomes PM and has 2 weeks to fail to form a govt. before an election is called AIUI. Unlikely? Maybe. But not entirely impossible.

    He doesn't become PM unless he can put together a majority first, or appear to be in a position to do so.
    If the Conservative government collapses in disarray under the weight of Brexit, that party will presumably not want an early election. Accordingly Labour might be able to form an administration with the Conservatives abstaining on votes of confidence.
    Yes, but it wouldn't be automatic under the FTPA - the palace would take 'soundings' to see if Mr Corbyn, or indeed anyone else, was likely to win a confidence vote.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 34,506
    And this, in the end, cuts to the guts of the problem with the Brexit case. On the one hand you have sunny optimists such as the Foreign Secretary forever shambling around the place remarking on how wonderful everything is; and on the other you have the thunderous pessimists such as Nigel Farage darkly warning that everything is actually terrible and Brexit is the only way to rescue Britain from its otherwise dystopian future. It is the difference between Brexit sunrise and Brexit sunset; the difference between a happy and liberating option and a grim and pessimistic necessity. Britain can be brilliant or Britain can be broken.

    This, in the end, is why Brexit is doomed.

    The Bozoists pretend they didn't vote for Farage, but there was only one ballot.

    A vote for "Liberal, International Brexit" also counted for "Isolationaist, Nationalist Brexit" however hard the Brexiteers wish.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 16,719
    Scott_P said:

    A vote for "Liberal, International Brexit" also counted for "Isolationaist, Nationalist Brexit" however hard the Brexiteers wish.

    Ironically the most realistic way to reconcile the two points of view is to stay in the EU and try to make it more protectionist.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,006

    dixiedean said:

    More plausible May caves in to BINO. 20 or so irreconcilables resign the whip and no confidence her. Under the FTPA, Corbyn becomes PM and has 2 weeks to fail to form a govt. before an election is called AIUI. Unlikely? Maybe. But not entirely impossible.

    He doesn't become PM unless he can put together a majority first, or appear to be in a position to do so.
    If the Conservative government collapses in disarray under the weight of Brexit, that party will presumably not want an early election. Accordingly Labour might be able to form an administration with the Conservatives abstaining on votes of confidence.
    Nonsense. There is a greater chance of Elvis being found on the Moon.

    Jeremy Corbyn in any case is a bigger leaver than Theresa May. He has voted against every EU treaty for 30 years including the one establishing the Single Market.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 26,048
    edited February 14

    Roses are red

    Violets are blue

    I'm for the many

    Not just the few

    Roses are red,
    Violets are blue,
    BREXIT, BREXIT, GOD DAMN BREXIT,
    For all of you

    By AlastairMeeks

    PS....BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT...
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