Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tick Tock Two. There is more than one countdown taking place

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited February 21 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tick Tock Two. There is more than one countdown taking place

Earlier this week I wrote about the likelihood that Britain will leave the EU on the current scheduled date of 29 March 2019. My logic was simple: the timetable is preset, adjusting it requires the consent of a lot of different parties and there is no sign yet that many people in Britain have changed their minds. You can still back that proposition at 5/4 on Betfair and it still looks to me to be outstanding value.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,792
    edited February 21
    Gold medal. Am I skating on thin ice?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    edited February 21
    !

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Rentool, you just ruined what could've been a perfect opening to this thread, with your silly edit.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 955
    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465
    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    And thank you for reminding us that the brightest and the best and the most superior sneering ass-hats got beaten by a bus.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,501
    The picture says most of it.
    But gormlessness (spelling?) is not, say, war mongering.
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 21
    Who wants a liberal Brexit?
  • Slightly disappointing January results* for the government, balanced out by the fact previous borrowing was revised down.

    * Some of this will come out in the wash next month - the underlying figures aren't bad at all.

  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,064
    So unemployment going up, although a complicated picture.



  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,457
    "So, how do Leavers propose to take things from here? They’ve spent far too long fighting the last battle."

    Titter - self awareness still a far away planet for Continuity Remain.

    The article is a fantasy. People move on from past events - the Iraq war caused a massive schism in society but in 2018 it's only relevant in the darkest twitter feeds of Corbynite loons.

    And that is where "rejoin" is heading. By 2025 other issues, topics, problems will be front and centre and only the slowly rocking wide eyed unemployed European law graduate sitting in the corner of the last remaining branch of Belgo dreaming of the day where we handed over £10Bn so Tony Blair could win a bike race will give an Aylesbury duck about rejoining.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,457

    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    And thank you for reminding us that the brightest and the best and the most superior sneering ass-hats got beaten by a bus.
    ZING.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050
    Opinion on the EU will forever vary I expect, "leave" had a strong lead after the last EC ref (In the seventies) - however Thatcher's City Britain was strongly in favour during most of the eighties.
    Since then it has osciallated (Someone linked the graph a few freds back..). Who knows where support will be in the future. I expect further oscillation but broadly in favour of the EU and against the status quo, the grass being greener springs to mind. Just as it was post 73...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,457
    edited February 21
    Matt rules

    image
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,860

    In practice, however, Leave cannot make the case for a liberal Brexit because a large part of Leave’s own supporters want no part of that. So a repositioning of Brexit looks predestined to fail.

    If global, liberal Brexit is eliminated, then Brexit becomes repositioned as an English nationalist phenomenon by default.

    Political logic suggests that the best way for them to stay relevant is to argue against the UK union - particularly if they blame Northern Ireland for scuppering their dream Brexit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,730
    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
  • Awb683 said:

    Who wants a liberal Brexit?

    Michael Gove, the Adam Smith institute to name a few.
  • JonathanD said:

    So unemployment going up, although a complicated picture.



    Unemployment rose for the best possible reason: people entered the workforce.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 955
    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
    Pleasure. As the article says old and sad Brexiteers will be dying off in an ever increasing rate. I will be content to wait.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,730

    Slightly disappointing January results* for the government, balanced out by the fact previous borrowing was revised down.

    * Some of this will come out in the wash next month - the underlying figures aren't bad at all.

    Borrowing should come out at about 38 bn for the year.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,730
    Chris_A said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
    Pleasure. As the article says old and sad Brexiteers will be dying off in an ever increasing rate. I will be content to wait.
    You'll be waiting a long time.
  • Sean_F said:

    Slightly disappointing January results* for the government, balanced out by the fact previous borrowing was revised down.

    * Some of this will come out in the wash next month - the underlying figures aren't bad at all.

    Borrowing should come out at about 38 bn for the year.
    Which is the full year projection for 2017/18 originally given in Spring 2016, on the assumption we would vote to Remain.

    Funny old world.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,417
    The EU will be the ones changing minds of the Remainers.

    Rejoining once we’ve left will mean signing up to the Euro, domestic budgets approved by Brussels, financial services taxes paid directly to Brussels, an EU military, a massive relaxation of the new status quo of immigration rules and the ripping up of the trade deals we only just signed. Will as many as 20% be up for that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050

    Awb683 said:

    Who wants a liberal Brexit?

    Michael Gove, the Adam Smith institute to name a few.
    About 20% of the most prominent Brexiteers, and about 2% of general public that voted to leave.
    Those figures are a guess but liberal brexiteers are probably over-represented in media facing positions to the population norm.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,419

    Awb683 said:

    Who wants a liberal Brexit?

    Michael Gove, the Adam Smith institute to name a few.
    They are not running Brexit though. The project is now firmly in the grip of the golf club bore right wing shitbag wing of the tory party.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,207

    Unemployment rose for the best possible reason: people entered the workforce.

    Though it's a tad misleading for the press to report only one figure. You could write two entirely different stories about the figures today.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,457

    In practice, however, Leave cannot make the case for a liberal Brexit because a large part of Leave’s own supporters want no part of that. So a repositioning of Brexit looks predestined to fail.

    If global, liberal Brexit is eliminated, then Brexit becomes repositioned as an English nationalist phenomenon by default.

    Political logic suggests that the best way for them to stay relevant is to argue against the UK union - particularly if they blame Northern Ireland for scuppering their dream Brexit.
    Link to a definition of "liberal brexit"

    I'd suggest any adjective before Brexit is open to interpretation - but new ones are always fun.

    Spicy Brexit
    Bouncy Brexit
    Rubbery Brexit
    Brittle Brexit

    Personally I'd go for a delicious Brexit.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,262
    Chris_A said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
    Pleasure. As the article says old and sad Brexiteers will be dying off in an ever increasing rate. I will be content to wait.
    Your points so far this morning:

    1. I was outwitted by a bunch of utter morons.

    2. I am certain a rematch would go the same way, so my only option is to sit on my arse for years in the hope of a default.

    keep 'em coming!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,417

    Sean_F said:

    Slightly disappointing January results* for the government, balanced out by the fact previous borrowing was revised down.

    * Some of this will come out in the wash next month - the underlying figures aren't bad at all.

    Borrowing should come out at about 38 bn for the year.
    Which is the full year projection for 2017/18 originally given in Spring 2016, on the assumption we would vote to Remain.

    Funny old world.
    Can I bet that statistic doesn’t end up on the front page of the Evening Standard?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,419
    Sandpit said:

    an EU military

    What, exactly, is the problem with this?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,860
    TGOHF said:

    In practice, however, Leave cannot make the case for a liberal Brexit because a large part of Leave’s own supporters want no part of that. So a repositioning of Brexit looks predestined to fail.

    If global, liberal Brexit is eliminated, then Brexit becomes repositioned as an English nationalist phenomenon by default.

    Political logic suggests that the best way for them to stay relevant is to argue against the UK union - particularly if they blame Northern Ireland for scuppering their dream Brexit.
    Link to a definition of "liberal brexit"
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/full-text-boris-johnsons-brexit-speech/
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,475

    Sean_F said:

    Slightly disappointing January results* for the government, balanced out by the fact previous borrowing was revised down.

    * Some of this will come out in the wash next month - the underlying figures aren't bad at all.

    Borrowing should come out at about 38 bn for the year.
    Which is the full year projection for 2017/18 originally given in Spring 2016, on the assumption we would vote to Remain.

    Funny old world.
    Made by G Osborne? Hahahaha
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,457
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    an EU military

    What, exactly, is the problem with this?

    Front page of today's FT - the German army doesn't have any socks nevermind transport or guns.

  • Only a Russian troll would put an apostrophe in ‘means’
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465
    Sandpit said:

    The EU will be the ones changing minds of the Remainers.

    Rejoining once we’ve left will mean signing up to the Euro, domestic budgets approved by Brussels, financial services taxes paid directly to Brussels, an EU military, a massive relaxation of the new status quo of immigration rules and the ripping up of the trade deals we only just signed. Will as many as 20% be up for that?

    It will also mean no more rebates, so a huge price rise in our membership fees - just as we have got used to not paying them. If the Remainers think they can make an argument that convinces the voters of the UK it will be money well spent, then I have several bridges in central London they might be interested in.....

    You can see the side of the bus now. "EU membership fees of £500m a week? And you want which hospitals to close to pay for this?"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,417
    edited February 21
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    an EU military

    What, exactly, is the problem with this?

    I thought you were a former military man. Would you seriously want another layer of brass hats run by a group of unelected politicians that will take years to decide not to do anything, while eating a substantial portion of the budget on their own comfortable existence?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,768
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris_A said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
    Pleasure. As the article says old and sad Brexiteers will be dying off in an ever increasing rate. I will be content to wait.
    Your points so far this morning:

    1. I was outwitted by a bunch of utter morons.

    2. I am certain a rematch would go the same way, so my only option is to sit on my arse for years in the hope of a default.

    keep 'em coming!
    A lot of people who voted ‘IN’ in 1975 must have voted ‘OUT’ in 2016 so I REMAIN in favour of making a positive case for staying.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,570
    FWIW, I think a lot of the current right/wrong polling is taking the temperature of the state of play of the ongoing negotiations, which are still uncertain, and are on TV bulletins and in newspapers daily, worrying people.

    I expect that to settle down once the outcome is clear, and the policy direction of a post-Brexit Britain is clear. The Government can then start to focus on the wins.

    I could be wrong but I also think that the longer it is since Brexit occurred the less salience the right/wrong question will have, which will tend to diminish "wrong" over time as people start to disassociate it from any perceived failings of the incumbent administration.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris_A said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
    Pleasure. As the article says old and sad Brexiteers will be dying off in an ever increasing rate. I will be content to wait.
    Your points so far this morning:

    1. I was outwitted by a bunch of utter morons.

    2. I am certain a rematch would go the same way, so my only option is to sit on my arse for years in the hope of a default.

    keep 'em coming!
    A lot of people who voted ‘IN’ in 1975 must have voted ‘OUT’ in 2016 so I REMAIN in favour of making a positive case for staying.
    You lost to decades of reality about the EU though. Nothing since Brexit demonstrates they have any understanding of how to appeal to the UK.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,457

    TGOHF said:

    In practice, however, Leave cannot make the case for a liberal Brexit because a large part of Leave’s own supporters want no part of that. So a repositioning of Brexit looks predestined to fail.

    If global, liberal Brexit is eliminated, then Brexit becomes repositioned as an English nationalist phenomenon by default.

    Political logic suggests that the best way for them to stay relevant is to argue against the UK union - particularly if they blame Northern Ireland for scuppering their dream Brexit.
    Link to a definition of "liberal brexit"
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/full-text-boris-johnsons-brexit-speech/
    Sorry - can't see the phrase "liberal Brexit" in that speech.

    He does mention a "liberal global future" - but the word "Brexit" will soon become useful only for the past tense - a phrase only for those that have 'spent far too long fighting the last battle'.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,417
    More charity merry-go-round abuse.

    Chief exec of Save the Children resigns after harassing young female staff, then goes to work as an executive at UNICEF instead, on another six figure salary.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/20/save-children-boss-quit-admitting-sending-inappropriate-texts/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    an EU military

    What, exactly, is the problem with this?
    You mean the germans going to finally get over their 70+ year guilt trip and contribute properly to european defence ?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,419
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    an EU military

    What, exactly, is the problem with this?

    I thought you were a former military man. Would you seriously want another layer of brass hats run by a group of unelected politicians that will take years to decide not to do anything, while eating a substantial portion of the budget on their own comfortable existence?
    As the UK no longer, or perhaps never had, a full spectrum of military capabilities international co-operation is the only option so we have to decide with which framework we are going pool our efforts. An EU force would be a lot closer to our strategic needs than NATO which is always absolutely dominated by the US. We have more shared defence challenges in common with Denmark and the Netherlands than we do with California and Texas.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    One again Remoaners like the author are employing terms like "Liberal Brexit", to justify their undemocratic quest to frustrate the will of the people and have a Brexit in name only, with the UK's laws and borders remaining under EU control.

    Once again I point out to him that the Leave campaign during the referendum made clear that "taking back control" of our laws and borders meant leaving the Single Market, that the Remain propaganda booklet sent to all homes stated that leaving the EU meant leaving the Single Market, that his argument therefore that people on voted for a generality -leaving the EU -and not for a specific leaving of the Single Market -is nonsensical and disingenuous.

    I point out too that all polls of leavers since the referendum has identified control of our laws and borders as central to their decision, and that cannot be achieved by staying in the Single Market.

    So enough of the "Liberal Brexit" nonsense. What Remoaners want is Phoney Brexit.



    Time is running out for the Remoaners.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465
    Pulpstar said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    an EU military

    What, exactly, is the problem with this?
    You mean the germans going to finally get over their 70+ year guilt trip and contribute properly to european defence ?
    There was no sign of that guilt trip ending as recently as two years ago, when Germany opened its borders to anyone who could get there....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,425
    Once they fix the apostrophe Brexit will be fine.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,730
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris_A said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
    Pleasure. As the article says old and sad Brexiteers will be dying off in an ever increasing rate. I will be content to wait.
    Your points so far this morning:

    1. I was outwitted by a bunch of utter morons.

    2. I am certain a rematch would go the same way, so my only option is to sit on my arse for years in the hope of a default.

    keep 'em coming!
    The God That Failed by Sean Trende is the best rebuttal of demographic triumphalism.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 4,895
    Default bias will favour Brexit once it has happened.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. Eagles, hasn't Harris always been opposed to our leaving the EU?

    Also, Napoleon's defeat involved the British opposing the overweening pride of a jumped up Corsican who wanted to create a European Empire against the wishes of the people.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,860
    What is Moscow in this analogy? Brexit itself? Perhaps Cameron's resignation the day after the referendum was the moment he set fire to it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,284
    edited February 21

    Mr. Eagles, hasn't Harris always been opposed to our leaving the EU?

    Also, Napoleon's defeat involved the British opposing the overweening pride of a jumped up Corsican who wanted to create a European Empire against the wishes of the people.

    He voted Remain and accepts the will of the people, he’s just pointing out the similarities, like all good historians do, not that you’d know. :smile:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. Eagles, let me know when we start eating our own horses.
  • Mr. Eagles, let me know when we start eating our own horses.

    Already happened.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/31/two-men-jailed-in-uk-for-horsemeat-conspiracy
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,417
    Ouch. Quentin Letts sketch on the Oxfam executives

    Three top bods from Oxfam appeared in front of MPs yesterday to discuss the Haiti sex scandal in 2010, when workers allegedly entertained local prostitutes days after an earthquake in which 200,000 people died.

    You thought your money was going on food and blankets? How quaintly old-fashioned.


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5415193/QUENTIN-LETTS-watches-blame-dodging-Oxfam-elite-action.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,463
    Sean_F said:

    Slightly disappointing January results* for the government, balanced out by the fact previous borrowing was revised down.

    * Some of this will come out in the wash next month - the underlying figures aren't bad at all.

    Borrowing should come out at about 38 bn for the year.
    Disappointed that I forecast a debt repayment of £10bn and it was in fact £10,008 million. Really need to up my game.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited February 21

    Sandpit said:

    The EU will be the ones changing minds of the Remainers.

    Rejoining once we’ve left will mean signing up to the Euro, domestic budgets approved by Brussels, financial services taxes paid directly to Brussels, an EU military, a massive relaxation of the new status quo of immigration rules and the ripping up of the trade deals we only just signed. Will as many as 20% be up for that?

    It will also mean no more rebates, so a huge price rise in our membership fees - just as we have got used to not paying them. If the Remainers think they can make an argument that convinces the voters of the UK it will be money well spent, then I have several bridges in central London they might be interested in.....

    You can see the side of the bus now. "EU membership fees of £500m a week? And you want which hospitals to close to pay for this?"
    I'm not sure I buy that argument. Let me be a contrarian for a moment. Consider, even a full fat membership would be less than 1% of UK GDP, i.e. round about a 0.4% rise over our current contribution. Assume that's around £10bn, it's still less than a fifth of our debt servicing costs and I don't hear many people complaining about that.

    There's no particular issue with an EU common foreign policy, an EU military (pooling defence spending makes sense, if the level was set high enough). European specialisation in different areas would makes sense; the Belgian military is a joke, but we'd probably make better use of their defence contribution. Some countries have an issue with NATO's mission creep, and a defensive force a la Japan probably suits the EU psyche better.

    If you look at EU country economic performance, the A8 and A2 countries are going gangbusters; the economic differential between (say) Poland and the UK is much narrower than it was and this would naturally moderate immigration flows over time.

    If the UK modified its absurdly and indiscriminately generous health and welfare systems towards EU norms, the flow would drop even further. The next batch of accession countries would attract transitional controls (I assume we've learned our lesson).

    For me the issue is that we'd need to give up the pound if we weren't to simply recapitulate a lot of our current issues; the EU is, and will increasingly be, a Euro club. The direction of travel is very clear - the French and Germans are now pushing for a harmonised corporate tax regime and Macron will doubtless want his other proposals pushed through too. Moisovici has already told Ireland that their veto cannot hold up the EZ indefinitely.
  • What is Moscow in this analogy? Brexit itself? Perhaps Cameron's resignation the day after the referendum was the moment he set fire to it.
    I’ve always thought Dave as Julius Caesar and Gove as Brutus, except Gove is not honourable man.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/28/michael-gove-could-be-set-to-play-the-role-of-brutus-to-david-camerons-caesar/
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,064

    Pulpstar said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    an EU military

    What, exactly, is the problem with this?
    You mean the germans going to finally get over their 70+ year guilt trip and contribute properly to european defence ?
    There was no sign of that guilt trip ending as recently as two years ago, when Germany opened its borders to anyone who could get there....
    The five neutral countries spend much the same as Germany as a percent of GDP and they budget for standing alone against a foe. That's surely more expensive than NATO's so-called collective security which in theory would send UK, Spanish and Italian tanks to defend Estonia against a Russian incursion.

    Yet 'collective security' has cost us nearer to 2% than to 1%. So it's been more expensive than for the countries whose policy is self-defence only, non-intervention in other countries unless the Security Council asks for it, etc.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 666
    Isnt Napoleon more akin to the EU? And the Russians fighting to preserve their independence the plucky UK Seeking to extricate itself from falling under the domination of a European wide superstate?
  • brendan16 said:

    Isnt Napoleon more akin to the EU? And the Russians fighting to preserve their independence the plucky UK Seeking to extricate itself from falling under the domination of a European wide superstate?
    Nah, the UK was part of Europe wide alliance that crushed the narrow little nationalists.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,768

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris_A said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
    Pleasure. As the article says old and sad Brexiteers will be dying off in an ever increasing rate. I will be content to wait.
    Your points so far this morning:

    1. I was outwitted by a bunch of utter morons.

    2. I am certain a rematch would go the same way, so my only option is to sit on my arse for years in the hope of a default.

    keep 'em coming!
    A lot of people who voted ‘IN’ in 1975 must have voted ‘OUT’ in 2016 so I REMAIN in favour of making a positive case for staying.
    You lost to decades of reality about the EU though. Nothing since Brexit demonstrates they have any understanding of how to appeal to the UK.
    We lost, I suspect, because of Blair’s failure to manage Eastern European immigration properly, coupled with a strong pound.
    When the (former) Deutschmark was strong against the poiund in the 70’s and 80’s, and German tax laws worked in their favour, the likes of the cast of Auf Weidersehn Pet went working in the Bundesrepublik.
    As the pound slides now closer to parity with the euro coming to the UK is going to be less attrractive to West Europeans and the rate against the zloty has deteriorated, althouigh, TBF, it’s improving a bit lately.

    There was also a somewhat dishonest campaign on matters European in some of the Press. Straight bananas, anyone!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,802

    What the proprietorship of these papers is aiming at is power, and power without responsibility — the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages.


    Baldwin was attacking the leading press barons of his day (Lord Beaverbrook and Lord Rothermere); the phrase was suggested by Baldwin's cousin Rudyard Kipling (17 March 1931), quoted in The Times (18 March 1931), p. 18.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,819
    All Brexiteers need is for us to leave and then people to focus on other issues.
    Given the problems we are storing up - that doesn’t seem unlikely at all.
  • On topic it’ll entirely depend on the Brexit we get.

    If Brexit turns out to be a success or even a bit meh rejoining is off the table.

    If Brexit turns out to be a disaster then the voters will join replete with Euro et al.

    As the dementia tax showed voters aren’t keen on being poorer for the greater good despite what they tell the posters.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,419



    Yet 'collective security' has cost us nearer to 2% than to 1%. So it's been more expensive than for the countries whose policy is self-defence only, non-intervention in other countries unless the Security Council asks for it, etc.

    You can't really analyse UK defence spending in terms of capability as a large portion of it is just corporate welfare.

  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris_A said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
    Pleasure. As the article says old and sad Brexiteers will be dying off in an ever increasing rate. I will be content to wait.
    Your points so far this morning:

    1. I was outwitted by a bunch of utter morons.

    2. I am certain a rematch would go the same way, so my only option is to sit on my arse for years in the hope of a default.

    keep 'em coming!
    A lot of people who voted ‘IN’ in 1975 must have voted ‘OUT’ in 2016 so I REMAIN in favour of making a positive case for staying.
    You lost to decades of reality about the EU though. Nothing since Brexit demonstrates they have any understanding of how to appeal to the UK.
    We lost, I suspect, because of Blair’s failure to manage Eastern European immigration properly, coupled with a strong pound.
    When the (former) Deutschmark was strong against the poiund in the 70’s and 80’s, and German tax laws worked in their favour, the likes of the cast of Auf Weidersehn Pet went working in the Bundesrepublik.
    As the pound slides now closer to parity with the euro coming to the UK is going to be less attrractive to West Europeans and the rate against the zloty has deteriorated, althouigh, TBF, it’s improving a bit lately.

    There was also a somewhat dishonest campaign on matters European in some of the Press. Straight bananas, anyone!
    Why are we not all discusing the World WarThree that cameron threatened could happened as a result of the UK leaving the EU?

    Was it mentioned at the recent European Security conference?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. Eagles, very unfair of you to criticise problems with meat due to lesser quality and reliability from EU firms.

    Mr. Eagles (2), you're aware that Brutus was in favour of freedom for the people of Rome, rather than perpetual dictatorship? Interesting you compare him to Gove, placing his nation before his friend.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,296
    edited February 21
    Soor plooms for those parroting Guido & piously demanding that Corbyn give permission for his Stasi file to be released.

    'New blow to spy smears as German authorities reveal there isn’t a Stasi file on Jeremy Corbyn'

    https://tinyurl.com/ycwa663z
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,768

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris_A said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
    Pleasure. As the article says old and sad Brexiteers will be dying off in an ever increasing rate. I will be content to wait.
    Your points so far this morning:

    1. I was outwitted by a bunch of utter morons.

    2. I am certain a rematch would go the same way, so my only option is to sit on my arse for years in the hope of a default.

    keep 'em coming!
    A lot of people who voted ‘IN’ in 1975 must have voted ‘OUT’ in 2016 so I REMAIN in favour of making a positive case for staying.
    You lost to decades of reality about the EU though. Nothing since Brexit demonstrates they have any understanding of how to appeal to the UK.
    We lost, I suspect, because of Blair’s failure to manage Eastern European immigration properly, coupled with a strong pound.
    When the (former) Deutschmark was strong against the poiund in the 70’s and 80’s, and German tax laws worked in their favour, the likes of the cast of Auf Weidersehn Pet went working in the Bundesrepublik.
    As the pound slides now closer to parity with the euro coming to the UK is going to be less attrractive to West Europeans and the rate against the zloty has deteriorated, althouigh, TBF, it’s improving a bit lately.

    There was also a somewhat dishonest campaign on matters European in some of the Press. Straight bananas, anyone!
    Why are we not all discusing the World WarThree that cameron threatened could happened as a result of the UK leaving the EU?

    Was it mentioned at the recent European Security conference?
    My opinion of Cameron is not something which can be reported on a site catering for those of refined tastes.
  • Mr. Eagles, very unfair of you to criticise problems with meat due to lesser quality and reliability from EU firms.

    Mr. Eagles (2), you're aware that Brutus was in favour of freedom for the people of Rome, rather than perpetual dictatorship? Interesting you compare him to Gove, placing his nation before his friend.

    Brutus failed in his aims and like Judas & Mark Reckless has become a byword for traitor and betrayal.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,108
    edited February 21
    On topic: The BBC is running wall-to-wall Brexit doom-mongering (a bit late, TBH). But in fact the negotiations are going rather well, and we seem to be headed for quite a good deal, inshallah. It's even looking as though the City won't be much affected. The economy is a bit damaged, but not so badly that anyone really notices. Planes will keep flying, EU workers will continue coming but in slightly lower numbers (partly because the Eurozone economy is going great guns now, taking away one of the push factors), we'll still follow EU regulations de facto if not de jure, and the Irish question will be fudged as Irish questions usually are.

    So a bit of a damp squib, really. In two or three years' time, it's not going to be the massive issue which it seems to be now. Never underestimate the power of boredom in politics. The circus will move on.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 666

    brendan16 said:

    Isnt Napoleon more akin to the EU? And the Russians fighting to preserve their independence the plucky UK Seeking to extricate itself from falling under the domination of a European wide superstate?
    Nah, the UK was part of Europe wide alliance that crushed the narrow little nationalists.
    Yes - to preserve free and self governing independent nations. It was Napoleon who wanted to impose a continent wide centrally directed state - he even got started by making everyone drive on the wrong side of the road!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,457
    edited February 21

    On topic it’ll entirely depend on the Brexit we get.

    If Brexit turns out to be a success or even a bit meh rejoining is off the table.

    If Brexit turns out to be a disaster then the voters will join replete with Euro et al.

    As the dementia tax showed voters aren’t keen on being poorer for the greater good despite what they tell the posters.

    Meh - we could get an excellent Brexit then a Corbyn government and the economy would tank. I'm sure Labour, the BBC etc would then blame Brexit.

    Also the idea that "Brexit" is a stasis from which we cannot improve or ruin our position is a myth.

    EU membership has been a continually movable feast since '75 - not a fixed position.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris_A said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
    Pleasure. As the article says old and sad Brexiteers will be dying off in an ever increasing rate. I will be content to wait.
    Your points so far this morning:

    1. I was outwitted by a bunch of utter morons.

    2. I am certain a rematch would go the same way, so my only option is to sit on my arse for years in the hope of a default.

    keep 'em coming!
    A lot of people who voted ‘IN’ in 1975 must have voted ‘OUT’ in 2016 so I REMAIN in favour of making a positive case for staying.
    You lost to decades of reality about the EU though. Nothing since Brexit demonstrates they have any understanding of how to appeal to the UK.
    We lost, I suspect, because of Blair’s failure to manage Eastern European immigration properly, coupled with a strong pound.
    When the (former) Deutschmark was strong against the poiund in the 70’s and 80’s, and German tax laws worked in their favour, the likes of the cast of Auf Weidersehn Pet went working in the Bundesrepublik.
    As the pound slides now closer to parity with the euro coming to the UK is going to be less attrractive to West Europeans and the rate against the zloty has deteriorated, althouigh, TBF, it’s improving a bit lately.

    There was also a somewhat dishonest campaign on matters European in some of the Press. Straight bananas, anyone!
    Why are we not all discusing the World WarThree that cameron threatened could happened as a result of the UK leaving the EU?

    Was it mentioned at the recent European Security conference?
    My opinion of Cameron is not something which can be reported on a site catering for those of refined tastes.
    Which site is that?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,768
    edited February 21

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris_A said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.

    When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
    Pleasure. As the article says old and sad Brexiteers will be dying off in an ever increasing rate. I will be content to wait.
    Your points so far this morning:

    1. I was outwitted by a bunch of utter morons.

    2. I am certain a rematch would go the same way, so my only option is to sit on my arse for years in the hope of a default.

    keep 'em coming!
    A lot of people who voted ‘IN’ in 1975 must have voted ‘OUT’ in 2016 so I REMAIN in favour of making a positive case for staying.
    You lost to decades of reality about the EU though. Nothing since Brexit demonstrates they have any understanding of how to appeal to the UK.
    We lost, I suspect, because of Blair’s failure to manage Eastern European immigration properly, coupled with a strong pound.
    When the (former) Deutschmark was strong against the poiund in the 70’s and 80’s, and German tax laws worked in their favour, the likes of the cast of Auf Weidersehn Pet went working in the Bundesrepublik.
    As the pound slides now closer to parity with the euro coming to the UK is going to be less attrractive to West Europeans and the rate against the zloty has deteriorated, althouigh, TBF, it’s improving a bit lately.

    There was also a somewhat dishonest campaign on matters European in some of the Press. Straight bananas, anyone!
    Why are we not all discusing the World WarThree that cameron threatened could happened as a result of the UK leaving the EU?

    Was it mentioned at the recent European Security conference?
    My opinion of Cameron is not something which can be reported on a site catering for those of refined tastes.
    Which site is that?
    I was thinking of Malc!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,738

    On topic: The BBC is running wall-to-wall Brexit doom-mongering (a bit late, TBH). But in fact the negotiations are going rather well, and we seem to be headed for quite a good deal, inshallah. It's even looking as though the City won't be much affected. The economy is a bit damaged, but not so badly that anyone really notices. Planes will keep flying, EU workers will continue coming but in slightly lower numbers (partly because the Eurozone economy is going great guns now, taking away one of the push factors), we'll still follow EU regulations de facto if not de jure, and the Irish question will be fudged as Irish questions usually are.

    So a bit of a damp squib, really. In two or three years' time, it's not going to be the massive issue which it seems to be now. Never underestimate the power of boredom in politics. The circus will move on.

    Most media "scares" do tend to finish up a damp squib... Its the things you don't see coming that hit you hardest.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,802
    edited February 21
    The Daily Diana is not allowing comments after an article about the smear campaign against Corbyn.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. Eagles, the two Bruti (his ancestor led the ousting of Tarquin Superbus and establishment of the Republic) were both strong defenders of freedom for Rome's people. Is it treachery to do one's utmost to prevent dictatorship (in the modern sense of the word)?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,768

    The Daily Diana is not allowing comments after an article about the smear campaign against Corbyn.

    Are our legal friends involved, do you think?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465

    On topic it’ll entirely depend on the Brexit we get.

    If Brexit turns out to be a success or even a bit meh rejoining is off the table.

    If Brexit turns out to be a disaster then the voters will join replete with Euro et al.

    As the dementia tax showed voters aren’t keen on being poorer for the greater good despite what they tell the posters.

    Except, they will be hugely poorer, to the tune of the increased membership fees we will have to pay on rejoining.

    Thank you for making my point. You just reached the wrong conclusion.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,268
    Was listening to the Today programme on the way to work this morning. I understand it was being broadcast from Paris, which makes it even more embarrassing that Toenails affected an 'Allo 'Allo accent during part of his interview with someone from the French car industry (if it weren't embarrassing enough already that he'd turned the interview into a simplistic "will Macron go with economics (proUK) or politics (antiUK) on Brexit" question).

    The most interesting part of the whole show for me was the the reference made to the NFU conference, and its first female president Minette Batters. They made the point that she would be president at a terribly turbulent time, due to Brexit of course. CAP subsidies would be ending, and their replacement only guaranteed until 2022 (I believe..) by the government. Would she be able to persuade people that, after this date, farmers were more worthy of the money than, say, the NHS?

    What's that BBC? You're saying that after Brexit we'll be able to decide how we spend the money that we now send to the EU?

    Someone should put that on a bus
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    In other news...decent employment figures, wage growth, PSBR (though for a deficit hawk it's still terrible) and even productivity gains. I'd expect a rate rise in May off the back of that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,570

    On topic: The BBC is running wall-to-wall Brexit doom-mongering (a bit late, TBH). But in fact the negotiations are going rather well, and we seem to be headed for quite a good deal, inshallah. It's even looking as though the City won't be much affected. The economy is a bit damaged, but not so badly that anyone really notices. Planes will keep flying, EU workers will continue coming but in slightly lower numbers (partly because the Eurozone economy is going great guns now, taking away one of the push factors), we'll still follow EU regulations de facto if not de jure, and the Irish question will be fudged as Irish questions usually are.

    So a bit of a damp squib, really. In two or three years' time, it's not going to be the massive issue which it seems to be now. Never underestimate the power of boredom in politics. The circus will move on.

    Probably the most likely outcome.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,463
    So the number of people in work actually increased by 88k whilst those looking for work increased by 46k. The number of economically active people therefore increased by 134k in a quarter. I think those looking for reductions in immigration to prove some point or other are going to be quite disappointed.
  • Mr. Eagles, the two Bruti (his ancestor led the ousting of Tarquin Superbus and establishment of the Republic) were both strong defenders of freedom for Rome's people. Is it treachery to do one's utmost to prevent dictatorship (in the modern sense of the word)?

    It is treachery to tell someone that you won’t do x, y, & z, then go and do y and z.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,802

    The Daily Diana is not allowing comments after an article about the smear campaign against Corbyn.

    Are our legal friends involved, do you think?
    I was wondering about that. They usually allow their readership to vent off.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,339

    You can see the side of the bus now. "EU membership fees of £500m a week? And you want which hospitals to close to pay for this?"

  • On topic it’ll entirely depend on the Brexit we get.

    If Brexit turns out to be a success or even a bit meh rejoining is off the table.

    If Brexit turns out to be a disaster then the voters will join replete with Euro et al.

    As the dementia tax showed voters aren’t keen on being poorer for the greater good despite what they tell the posters.

    Except, they will be hugely poorer, to the tune of the increased membership fees we will have to pay on rejoining.

    Thank you for making my point. You just reached the wrong conclusion.
    Those fees helped the economy and attract investment.

    They’ll pay them again for those reasons if the economy tanks because of Brexit.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,802
    John_M said:

    In other news...decent employment figures, wage growth, PSBR (though for a deficit hawk it's still terrible) and even productivity gains. I'd expect a rate rise in May off the back of that.

    A car in every garage and a chicken in every pot.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,463

    On topic: The BBC is running wall-to-wall Brexit doom-mongering (a bit late, TBH). But in fact the negotiations are going rather well, and we seem to be headed for quite a good deal, inshallah. It's even looking as though the City won't be much affected. The economy is a bit damaged, but not so badly that anyone really notices. Planes will keep flying, EU workers will continue coming but in slightly lower numbers (partly because the Eurozone economy is going great guns now, taking away one of the push factors), we'll still follow EU regulations de facto if not de jure, and the Irish question will be fudged as Irish questions usually are.

    So a bit of a damp squib, really. In two or three years' time, it's not going to be the massive issue which it seems to be now. Never underestimate the power of boredom in politics. The circus will move on.

    Pretty much what I have been saying for ages. We face a significant range of economic challenges. I wouldn't put Brexit in the top 5, probably not even in the top 10.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,108

    Soor plooms for those parroting Guido & piously demanding that Corbyn give permission for his Stasi file to be released.

    'New blow to spy smears as German authorities reveal there isn’t a Stasi file on Jeremy Corbyn'

    https://tinyurl.com/ycwa663z

    Oh shucks, I was so looking forward to reading all the romantic details of the motorcycle tour.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. Eagles, treachery is against a state, not a person. A man who puts his country before his friend is not a traitor.

    As for deceit, you might want to recall Caesar massacred almost half a million Germanian tribesmen during peace negotiations.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,802

    Soor plooms for those parroting Guido & piously demanding that Corbyn give permission for his Stasi file to be released.

    'New blow to spy smears as German authorities reveal there isn’t a Stasi file on Jeremy Corbyn'

    https://tinyurl.com/ycwa663z

    Oh shucks, I was so looking forward to reading all the romantic details of the motorcycle tour.
    We will never know if he kept his socks on. :lol:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,629
    'New blow to spy smears as German authorities reveal there isn’t a Stasi file on Jeremy Corbyn'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465
    John_M said:



    I'm not sure I buy that argument. Let me be a contrarian for a moment. Consider, even a full fat membership would be less than 1% of UK GDP, i.e. round about a 0.4% rise over our current contribution. Assume that's around £10bn, it's still less than a fifth of our debt servicing costs and I don't hear many people complaining about that.

    There's no particular issue with an EU common foreign policy, an EU military (pooling defence spending makes sense, if the level was set high enough). European specialisation in different areas would makes sense; the Belgian military is a joke, but we'd probably make better use of their defence contribution. Some countries have an issue with NATO's mission creep, and a defensive force a la Japan probably suits the EU psyche better.

    If you look at EU country economic performance, the A8 and A2 countries are going gangbusters; the economic differential between (say) Poland and the UK is much narrower than it was and this would naturally moderate immigration flows over time.

    If the UK modified its absurdly and indiscriminately generous health and welfare systems towards EU norms, the flow would drop even further. The next batch of accession countries would attract transitional controls (I assume we've learned our lesson).

    For me the issue is that we'd need to give up the pound if we weren't to simply recapitulate a lot of our current issues; the EU is, and will increasingly be, a Euro club. The direction of travel is very clear - the French and Germans are now pushing for a harmonised corporate tax regime and Macron will doubtless want his other proposals pushed through too. Moisovici has already told Ireland that their veto cannot hold up the EZ indefinitely.

    An interesting argument, but you are comparing apples and oranges. I am talking about rejoining the EU, whereas what you outline is effectively joining an EU superstate. And I just don't see that getting anywhere near 50% support in a futher referendum. Not unless the direst Remainer predictions prove to be overly optimistic - and the pound gets replaced by worn strings of seashells as currency....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,860

    ...and the Irish question will be fudged as Irish questions usually are.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,191
    edited February 21
    DavidL said:

    So the number of people in work actually increased by 88k whilst those looking for work increased by 46k. The number of economically active people therefore increased by 134k in a quarter. I think those looking for reductions in immigration to prove some point or other are going to be quite disappointed.

    The economic activity numbers for 16-64 also get affected by new entrants at the bottom and the number of people leaving at the top of that range.

    Year on year, 114,000 people entered the workforce.

    Not sure that tells us much about immigration (some of whom won't be part of the workforce!)
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    John_M said:



    I'm not sure I buy that argument. Let me be a contrarian for a moment. Consider, even a full fat membership would be less than 1% of UK GDP, i.e. round about a 0.4% rise over our current contribution. Assume that's around £10bn, it's still less than a fifth of our debt servicing costs and I don't hear many people complaining about that.

    There's no particular issue with an EU common foreign policy, an EU military (pooling defence spending makes sense, if the level was set high enough). European specialisation in different areas would makes sense; the Belgian military is a joke, but we'd probably make better use of their defence contribution. Some countries have an issue with NATO's mission creep, and a defensive force a la Japan probably suits the EU psyche better.

    If you look at EU country economic performance, the A8 and A2 countries are going gangbusters; the economic differential between (say) Poland and the UK is much narrower than it was and this would naturally moderate immigration flows over time.

    If the UK modified its absurdly and indiscriminately generous health and welfare systems towards EU norms, the flow would drop even further. The next batch of accession countries would attract transitional controls (I assume we've learned our lesson).

    For me the issue is that we'd need to give up the pound if we weren't to simply recapitulate a lot of our current issues; the EU is, and will increasingly be, a Euro club. The direction of travel is very clear - the French and Germans are now pushing for a harmonised corporate tax regime and Macron will doubtless want his other proposals pushed through too. Moisovici has already told Ireland that their veto cannot hold up the EZ indefinitely.

    An interesting argument, but you are comparing apples and oranges. I am talking about rejoining the EU, whereas what you outline is effectively joining an EU superstate. And I just don't see that getting anywhere near 50% support in a futher referendum. Not unless the direst Remainer predictions prove to be overly optimistic - and the pound gets replaced by worn strings of seashells as currency....
    It's not a done deal, but it's clear that the EU is likely to become increasingly federalised. It's in the treaties, and the Five Presidents' report fleshes out some of the routes to get there.

    There will be no status quo ante EU to rejoin. At least if we did rejoin it would be completely out in the open, as opposed to the 'boiled frog' approach that was used post 1987.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,008

    Soor plooms for those parroting Guido & piously demanding that Corbyn give permission for his Stasi file to be released.

    'New blow to spy smears as German authorities reveal there isn’t a Stasi file on Jeremy Corbyn'

    https://tinyurl.com/ycwa663z

    Guido is a source many believe in totally on here lately.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,296

    Soor plooms for those parroting Guido & piously demanding that Corbyn give permission for his Stasi file to be released.

    'New blow to spy smears as German authorities reveal there isn’t a Stasi file on Jeremy Corbyn'

    https://tinyurl.com/ycwa663z

    Oh shucks, I was so looking forward to reading all the romantic details of the motorcycle tour.
    Wouldn't float my boat, but chacun à son goût.

    You'll always have Jan 'Live Aid' Sarkocy.
This discussion has been closed.