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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why TMay’s Tories can’t afford to alienate Remain voters

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited February 23 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why TMay’s Tories can’t afford to alienate Remain voters

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  • Isn’t that a Scotland thing.

    Mrs May needs to stop peeing off people like me.
  • Oh and primus inter pares
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,859

    Oh and primus inter pares

    It's rigged! :o
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 873
    TSE - are you nailed on to vote and campaign for the Tories as things stand? Or might Sheffield Hallam be lighting up orange again?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,097

    Isn’t that a Scotland thing.

    Mrs May needs to stop peeing off people like me.

    I didn't realise the Tories held either Sheffield Hallam or Manchester Central...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. Eagles, what would achieve that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050
    **Cough Scotland**
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,792

    Isn’t that a Scotland thing.

    Mrs May needs to stop peeing off people like me.

    Better that she is peeing off people like you than peeing on people like you.

    And yes, strip out the gains for the Ruthie Party and the picture will be somewhat different.
  • tpfkar said:

    TSE - are you nailed on to vote and campaign for the Tories as things stand? Or might Sheffield Hallam be lighting up orange again?

    Depends if Pulpstar wants to vote swap again.
  • tlg86 said:

    Isn’t that a Scotland thing.

    Mrs May needs to stop peeing off people like me.

    I didn't realise the Tories held either Sheffield Hallam or Manchester Central...
    My vote last June helped the Tories take a seat from Labour.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,028
    Leave/Remain seats is a somewhat artificial distinction. 51-49 Leave has more in common with 51-49 Remain than it does with a 54-46 Leave seat.
    We need different categories. Strong Remain, (60 %plus), Weak Remain 53 to 59, Split 48 to 52' and Strong Leave (60% plus), and Weak Leave 53 to 59 would be more appropriate and useful for categorisation.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,097
    edited February 23
    I can only count 20 Tory gains at the GE.

    From what I can tell, the only non-Scottish Remain voting seat gained by Tories was Southport.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,476
    edited February 23
    A leading chef has started charging customers who fail to turn up for meals a £50 fee after more than 450 cancelled or missed bookings in just one month.

    http://metro.co.uk/2018/02/23/chef-fed-no-shows-start-charging-50-book-7337324

    Let them eat cake KFC...

  • Scottish voters are voters too. I'm not sure why you'd want to strip out the Ruthie Party, given how catatonically screwed the Conservatives would be without them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,284
    edited February 23
    tlg86 said:

    I can only count 20 Tory gains at the GE.

    From what I can tell, the only non-Scottish Remain voting seat gained by Tories was Southport.

    Richmond ?

    Not a gain per se in the strictest sense.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,726
    dixiedean said:

    Leave/Remain seats is a somewhat artificial distinction. 51-49 Leave has more in common with 51-49 Remain than it does with a 54-46 Leave seat.
    We need different categories. Strong Remain, (60 %plus), Weak Remain 53 to 59, Split 48 to 52' and Strong Leave (60% plus), and Weak Leave 53 to 59 would be more appropriate and useful for categorisation.

    I agree. Claims e.g. that Labour MPs represent mostly Leave seats are too simplistic. Your five categories look to be much more useful.
  • Mr. Eagles, what would achieve that?

    A Tory majority.

    Since I became politically aware the only times the Tories have won majorities is when my one nation wing of the party is in charge.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    There seems to be a very odd lesson being drawn from this thread.

    Why then can Anna Soubrey afford to alienate voters in her constituency which voted Leave?

    Doesnt Jeremy Corbyn have to be careful not to alienate Leave voters since most Labour MPs represent a constituency that voted Leave?

    Why does this issue only apply to Theresa May?

    And doesnt the fact that the Tories won so many remain votes, despite her saying she might go for No Deal, suggest that most Remainers are not remoaners, and just want to get on with it?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. Eagles, so, you're going to be unhappy, whatever happens, for at least this entire Parliament?

    *sighs*
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,262
    Surely if twice as many Remain seats turned tory as Leave seats did, and given the consensus that the tories "own" (are the party of) Leave/Brexit, what this tells us is that Leave/Remain was a complete non-issue in 2017 and will be even less so next time round when the referendum is another 5 years back in the rear view mirror? How hard is it to understand that it is not useful to have a debate about what to have for supper the Thursday before last:?
  • Mr. Eagles, so, you're going to be unhappy, whatever happens, for at least this entire Parliament?

    *sighs*

    Nope. She can sign us up to A customs union with the EU.

    It would honour the referendum and the Tory manifesto.

    I’ll be chuffed and I’ll give up for a year how crap she is.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,476
    edited February 23
    Ishmael_Z said:

    How hard is it to understand that it is not useful to have a debate about what to have for supper the Thursday before last:?

    At the moment it seems to be what everybody is talking about around the watercooler...oh you are talking about Brexit and not the KFC closures.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 358

    Scottish voters are voters too. I'm not sure why you'd want to strip out the Ruthie Party, given how catatonically screwed the Conservatives would be without them.

    The 13 MPs are even prepared to vote against the possibility of more funding for Police Scotland to support the party line:

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2018-02-21a.280.0&s=Hollobone
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 873

    tpfkar said:

    TSE - are you nailed on to vote and campaign for the Tories as things stand? Or might Sheffield Hallam be lighting up orange again?

    Depends if Pulpstar wants to vote swap again.
    If not, we could always have a conversation. I'm in one of the safe Con seats that Lab almost took last year, and are now fighting hard for.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Six Nations returns tonight. France Vs Italy at 8pm. Both are without a win so far. Rather suspect the French might put the Azurri[sp] to the sword.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,417

    Ishmael_Z said:

    How hard is it to understand that it is not useful to have a debate about what to have for supper the Thursday before last:?

    At the moment it seems to be what everybody is talking about around the watercooler...oh you are talking about Brexit and not the KFC closures.
    That one is in the Champions’ League of corporate PR blunders. How on Earth does a company fail to secure adequate supplies of the product that accounts for 90% of their sales?
  • tpfkar said:

    tpfkar said:

    TSE - are you nailed on to vote and campaign for the Tories as things stand? Or might Sheffield Hallam be lighting up orange again?

    Depends if Pulpstar wants to vote swap again.
    If not, we could always have a conversation. I'm in one of the safe Con seats that Lab almost took last year, and are now fighting hard for.
    Sounds good to me.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    F1: now has its own category, it seems, in the Ladbrokes A-Z. So, if you're wondering where it's gone, it's there.

    Six Nations: was checking the markets and last two results (France won away by 22 points, and [2016] home by just 2). Decided not to bother betting.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,418
    tlg86 said:

    I can only count 20 Tory gains at the GE.

    From what I can tell, the only non-Scottish Remain voting seat gained by Tories was Southport.

    Richmond Park was won back by Zac
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,859

    tlg86 said:

    I can only count 20 Tory gains at the GE.

    From what I can tell, the only non-Scottish Remain voting seat gained by Tories was Southport.

    Richmond Park was won back by Zac
    Technically not a gain. ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,184
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,792
    Nigelb said:
    Fine words from a draft dodger.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,768

    Nigelb said:
    Fine words from a draft dodger.
    As was the last Republican president.
  • Mr. Eagles, what would achieve that?

    A Tory majority.

    Since I became politically aware the only times the Tories have won majorities is when my one nation wing of the party is in charge.
    Come on, that's a comment begging for the old XKCD cartoon.

    By that logic since I became old enough to vote the only times the Tories have won majorities is when their leader previously got a minority at the prior election. So by that precedent May should get one next time.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,224
    stevef said:

    There seems to be a very odd lesson being drawn from this thread.

    Why then can Anna Soubrey afford to alienate voters in her constituency which voted Leave?

    Doesnt Jeremy Corbyn have to be careful not to alienate Leave voters since most Labour MPs represent a constituency that voted Leave?

    Why does this issue only apply to Theresa May?

    And doesnt the fact that the Tories won so many remain votes, despite her saying she might go for No Deal, suggest that most Remainers are not remoaners, and just want to get on with it?

    The question to ask for MPs keen to retain their seats is whether taking a different view from constituents will lose votes to another party, especially their main opponents. There are lots of people who voted Remain or Leave since they were asked, but who don't make it the decisive point for their next Parliamentary vote (even, often, who don't actually care much). Soubry was challenged strongly by UKIP over her known preference and they got 2%, which was a massive 8.7% drop. Her other opponents were all equally strongly pro-Remain. Basically UKIP voters felt they slightly preferred a pro-Remain Tory over a pro-Remain Labour candidate.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,097

    tlg86 said:

    I can only count 20 Tory gains at the GE.

    From what I can tell, the only non-Scottish Remain voting seat gained by Tories was Southport.

    Richmond Park was won back by Zac
    But then you’re also counting Copeland as a gain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,859
    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,755
    Afternoon all :)

    I'm sure my MP, Stephen Timms, is anxiously looking over his shoulder in his hyper-marginal with a 43,000 majority.

    The real electoral contest is the one to choose the next Newham Mayor and the only electorate is or are the 3,000 Labour Party members in Newham. The rest of us will simply ratify their decision.

    On topic, I'm sure the strongest Conservative performances in England were in LEAVE seats in terms of vote increase and/or swing. To assume that will be repeated in 2022 seems wishful thinking at this time. Once A50 is done and dusted isn't there more likely to be a reversion to old allegiances ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,184
    edited February 23

    Nigelb said:
    Fine words from a draft dodger.
    The idea that more guns is any kind of solution to too many guns is imbecilic anyway, as cogently argued here:
    http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/arming-teachers-classroom-cost-kids-lives-article-1.3835411
    The first (and only) time I was in close-quarter combat, I got tunnel vision. It happened so fast that when I went to squeeze the trigger, my safety was still on. In that instant, I almost panicked, thinking my weapon had jammed. Then the training kicked in. I flipped the selector switch to semi and started shooting.

    It was over in seconds. My full field of vision returned, and an otherwise quiet evening in northern Iraq became bodies, broken glass, empty shell casings and ringing ears.

    Seven years of training led up to that moment. How to react had been drilled into me. And still, I was caught so off guard by the attack that my reflexes had failed initially. It was nearly fatal....
  • RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    A draft dodger with bone spurs lecturing on bravery?

    It’s a bit like being lectured on loyalty by Mark Reckless.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050
    edited February 23

    Mr. Eagles, what would achieve that?

    A Tory majority.

    Since I became politically aware the only times the Tories have won majorities is when my one nation wing of the party is in charge.
    Come on, that's a comment begging for the old XKCD cartoon.

    By that logic since I became old enough to vote the only times the Tories have won majorities is when their leader previously got a minority at the prior election. So by that precedent May should get one next time.
    One rule that the previous 8 GEs have followed :

    There has been a swing against the major governing party for the past 34 years. Last time that was bucked was 1983.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,859

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    A draft dodger with bone spurs lecturing on bravery?

    It’s a bit like being lectured on loyalty by Mark Reckless.
    That doesn't change the fact that there was an officer at the scene whose duty was to protect the people in the school.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,792
    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Eagles, what would achieve that?

    A Tory majority.

    Since I became politically aware the only times the Tories have won majorities is when my one nation wing of the party is in charge.
    Come on, that's a comment begging for the old XKCD cartoon.

    By that logic since I became old enough to vote the only times the Tories have won majorities is when their leader previously got a minority at the prior election. So by that precedent May should get one next time.
    One rule that the previous 8 GEs have followed :

    There has been a swing against the major governing party for the past 34 years. Last time that was bucked was 1983.
    That must explain why the Conservatives have stopped governing. A cunning plan.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,425
    Trump literally says schools are dangerous places because there aren't enough guns.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,859
    FF43 said:

    Trump literally says schools are dangerous places because there aren't enough guns.

    twitter.com/business/status/967046784114622464

    Except this one.. fat lot of good that did!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,661
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    A draft dodger with bone spurs lecturing on bravery?

    It’s a bit like being lectured on loyalty by Mark Reckless.
    That doesn't change the fact that there was an officer at the scene whose duty was to protect the people in the school.
    Makes the NRA position look even more ridiculous.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,457
    Scenes as JRM calls Soubry a Jacobite !



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,184
    FF43 said:

    Trump literally says schools are dangerous places because there aren't enough guns.

    And the White House is a cognition free zone...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,184
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    Expecting a cop assigned to a school to be Bruce Willis in Die Hard is utter BS.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,195
    TGOHF said:
    Chortle .... :smile:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,028
    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    Expecting a cop assigned to a school to be Bruce Willis in Die Hard is utter BS.
    And expecting a teacher to do it better is even madder.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,077

    stevef said:

    There seems to be a very odd lesson being drawn from this thread.

    Why then can Anna Soubrey afford to alienate voters in her constituency which voted Leave?

    Doesnt Jeremy Corbyn have to be careful not to alienate Leave voters since most Labour MPs represent a constituency that voted Leave?

    Why does this issue only apply to Theresa May?

    And doesnt the fact that the Tories won so many remain votes, despite her saying she might go for No Deal, suggest that most Remainers are not remoaners, and just want to get on with it?

    The question to ask for MPs keen to retain their seats is whether taking a different view from constituents will lose votes to another party, especially their main opponents. There are lots of people who voted Remain or Leave since they were asked, but who don't make it the decisive point for their next Parliamentary vote (even, often, who don't actually care much). Soubry was challenged strongly by UKIP over her known preference and they got 2%, which was a massive 8.7% drop. Her other opponents were all equally strongly pro-Remain. Basically UKIP voters felt they slightly preferred a pro-Remain Tory over a pro-Remain Labour candidate.
    I know this sounds ridiculously naive, but just maybe Soubry actually believes in what she is saying and is prepared to take the electoral risks.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,661
    tpfkar said:

    TSE - are you nailed on to vote and campaign for the Tories as things stand? Or might Sheffield Hallam be lighting up orange again?

    The Tory vote surged by 10%, but still 3rd (LibDems down 5%, Labour up 3%) and that cost Nick Clegg his seat and gave us Mr O'Mara.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,457
    JackW said:

    TGOHF said:
    Chortle .... :smile:
    I assume its a base insult between popophiles ?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,077

    tpfkar said:

    TSE - are you nailed on to vote and campaign for the Tories as things stand? Or might Sheffield Hallam be lighting up orange again?

    The Tory vote surged by 10%, but still 3rd (LibDems down 5%, Labour up 3%) and that cost Nick Clegg his seat and gave us Mr O'Mara.
    Has he turned up for work yet?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,661
    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    Expecting a cop assigned to a school to be Bruce Willis in Die Hard is utter BS.
    Did the cop have an assault rifle or just a handgun?
    He may be branded a coward but he's not a dead hero. The NRA position is ludicrous, no civilian should have an assault rifle.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,334
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    Apparently the guy's job title was "school resource officer". To me, that drums up images of someone counting paperclips and devising the best allocation of classrooms, not a gun-toting superhero.

    I'm reserving judgement on the guy until it's known what his job role entailed, and how much training he had had. If he was just an ordinary shmuck off the street who had been given a gun 'just in case' and no training, then what happened is understandable. If he'd received lots of relevant training, then it is less so.

    Whatever, he must be going through a fairly hellish time (though not as much as the survivors and relatives of the victims). I'd like to think I'd have done different, but I can't guarantee it.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,661
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    Expecting a cop assigned to a school to be Bruce Willis in Die Hard is utter BS.
    And expecting a teacher to do it better is even madder.
    We only had to face board dusters or chalk being thrown at us.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,184

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    Expecting a cop assigned to a school to be Bruce Willis in Die Hard is utter BS.
    Did the cop have an assault rifle or just a handgun?
    He may be branded a coward but he's not a dead hero. The NRA position is ludicrous, no civilian should have an assault rifle.
    This is what an assault rifle does:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/02/what-i-saw-treating-the-victims-from-parkland-should-change-the-debate-on-guns/553937/

    That they should be openly available to the public is absurd.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,064

    tpfkar said:

    TSE - are you nailed on to vote and campaign for the Tories as things stand? Or might Sheffield Hallam be lighting up orange again?

    The Tory vote surged by 10%, but still 3rd (LibDems down 5%, Labour up 3%) and that cost Nick Clegg his seat and gave us Mr O'Mara.
    Has he turned up for work yet?
    Online sources have said yes since late last year. I haven't heard of a maiden speech yet.

    But if it's true that he ran a pub for a living he could be somewhat unusual in the workers' party. It means understanding concepts like business, partnerships, cash flow, VAT returns and possibly what a mess the SA tax system is; also how his party could simplify things.


    Slightly off-topic: all men over about 40, check with your doctor if you need PSA testing or you might eventually need the unpleasant prostate operation that Stephen Fry's just had

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-43171297
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,985
    Re: The debate about arming people in the USA

    image
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,768

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    Expecting a cop assigned to a school to be Bruce Willis in Die Hard is utter BS.
    And expecting a teacher to do it better is even madder.
    We only had to face board dusters or chalk being thrown at us.
    As I recall it was the teachers who threw the board dusters or chalk.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,403
    edited February 23
    It's surprising the Tories won any Remain seats. Most of them were probably in Scotland.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,768

    tpfkar said:

    TSE - are you nailed on to vote and campaign for the Tories as things stand? Or might Sheffield Hallam be lighting up orange again?

    The Tory vote surged by 10%, but still 3rd (LibDems down 5%, Labour up 3%) and that cost Nick Clegg his seat and gave us Mr O'Mara.
    Has he turned up for work yet?
    Online sources have said yes since late last year. I haven't heard of a maiden speech yet.

    But if it's true that he ran a pub for a living he could be somewhat unusual in the workers' party. It means understanding concepts like business, partnerships, cash flow, VAT returns and possibly what a mess the SA tax system is; also how his party could simplify things.


    Slightly off-topic: all men over about 40, check with your doctor if you need PSA testing or you might eventually need the unpleasant prostate operation that Stephen Fry's just had

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-43171297
    Agree, from personal experience, with the last paragraph. Get it checked!
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 685
    TGOHF said:
    Somebody needs to demand satisfaction from JRM. It's the only language he would understand.

    I wonder if he'd prefer pistols or swords though?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    Expecting a cop assigned to a school to be Bruce Willis in Die Hard is utter BS.
    And expecting a teacher to do it better is even madder.
    We only had to face board dusters or chalk being thrown at us.
    As I recall it was the teachers who threw the board dusters or chalk.
    I had a girlfriend whose mother could throw two pieces of chalk from the same hand - and hit two different misbehaving kids. She got kudos for that! (These days, she'd get a lawsuit.....)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,457
    Lord Caine - @JMCAINE slaughtering the pompous Peter Hain on twitter very enjoyable.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,108

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    Expecting a cop assigned to a school to be Bruce Willis in Die Hard is utter BS.
    And expecting a teacher to do it better is even madder.
    We only had to face board dusters or chalk being thrown at us.
    As I recall it was the teachers who threw the board dusters or chalk.
    I had a girlfriend whose mother could throw two pieces of chalk from the same hand - and hit two different misbehaving kids. She got kudos for that! (These days, she'd get a lawsuit.....)
    Less impressive if the whole class is misbehaving!
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,467
    JackW said:

    TGOHF said:
    Chortle .... :smile:
    Praise indeed from Mogg of all people, young Jack. Rather unexpected too.....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,755
    Late afternoon all :)

    Looking at the ERG (how are they different from Momentum?) and their "demands" for the Prime Minister:

    1) We should be able to set our own tariffs - that's a firm NO to a Customs Union then.

    2) We should be able to make our own laws - once we fully leave we will, no argument there. During the Transition period, we remain members of the EU and subject to their laws.

    3) We need to plan for global trading - well, we've had nearly two years since the vote so you'd like to think something has been prepared by Liam Fox unless the answer is CU with the EU and simply mirroring existing EU trade agreements.

    4) We should start trade talks before we leave the EU - we can't if I understand the membership rules but once Transition begins we will be able to start the process. I imagine some FTAs will be easy, others maybe much tougher.

    5) We should negotiate as an equal and not be cowed by EU rules - when ? During A50 or in global trade. I don't understand this unless it is a veiled comment at how Davis has comported himself so far.

    6) We can't let Remainers use the implementation period to delay Brexit - I thought the ones who wanted to prolong the Transition were May and her Government because a number of measures that will need to be in place haven't been sorted out yet. I thought the EU wanted Transition to end by the end of 2020 and it was the British Government which wanted it prolonged into 2021.

    So long on generalities and short on specifics here as well.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,224



    I know this sounds ridiculously naive, but just maybe Soubry actually believes in what she is saying and is prepared to take the electoral risks.

    I agree, and didn't mean to suggest otherwise. Whatever our personal differences, she's never lacked a willingness to speak her mind.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    To be fair, it was his job. What other reason is he there for?
    Expecting a cop assigned to a school to be Bruce Willis in Die Hard is utter BS.
    And expecting a teacher to do it better is even madder.
    We only had to face board dusters or chalk being thrown at us.
    As I recall it was the teachers who threw the board dusters or chalk.
    I had a girlfriend whose mother could throw two pieces of chalk from the same hand - and hit two different misbehaving kids. She got kudos for that! (These days, she'd get a lawsuit.....)
    Less impressive if the whole class is misbehaving!
    It's a tough crowd tonight......
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,524
    Re Soubry amendment, what does everyone think of this quote from Stephen Hammond (Con rebel who is supporting it)? Per Sky News:

    "Tory MP Stephen Hammond denied the amendment was a threat to Mrs May, telling Sky News: "This won't threaten the PM, the PM as I've already explained has set out that this is Government policy anyway. So all we're doing is making sure these options remain.""

    Also note that amendment says it shall be an OBJECTIVE to be in a Customs Union, not that the UK ultimately HAS to be in a Customs Union.

    So what to make of all the above?

    https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-faces-prospect-of-fresh-commons-brexit-showdown-11263136
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,607
    TGOHF said:
    1. Setting own tariffs. Then you need to announce what they will be now. If you don't, it's very hard to engage in FTA discussions with third parties, as they want to know what tariff reductions there will be in return for signing with you.

    2. Make own laws. Of course. But let's not forgot that our membership of other multinational bodies restricts our ability to make our own laws. Or are we planning on exiting all agreements and treaties which have the right to impose unlimited fines on the UK if we pass domestic laws that breach those agreements? (Such as the scary International Telecoms Union.)

    3. Plan for Global Trading. Well, you could start by firing Liam Fox.

    4. Trade Talks. We are in trade talks with the EU. The Department for International Trade has also made some baby steps. The issue with the EU is that we want something bespoke. And the more bespoke you want something, the longer it takes to negotiate (and bespoke trade treaties *always* take a long time to agree). The issue with trade talks with other countries is Liam Fox.

    5. Negotiate as an equal. All trade treaties are balanced towards the bigger partner. In every US FTA, the dispute resolution mechanism has a majority of US judges. In the China-Switzerland FTA, the Swiss removed their tariffs on Chinese products on day one, while the Chinese slowly lowered theirs over 15 years. Ultimately, and despite their trade surplus, they are less dependent on our trade than we are on theirs.

    6. Remain delays. Agreed. But I think it's worth remembering that when we moved from Commonwealth preferred trading arrangements to EEC ones, we had a seven year transition. And Commonwealth exports were less than 4% of GDP in 1973, against the 13% of GDP made up by EU exports in 2017.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676
    The Tories can't afford to alienate Leavers even more considering a clear majority of Tory voters and seats voted Leave as did virtually every Tory seat gained last June outside of Scotland.

    In any case the reason the Tories gained seats in Scotland was on an anti indyref2 ticket not an anti Brexit ticket
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676
    edited February 23
    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Eagles, what would achieve that?

    A Tory majority.

    Since I became politically aware the only times the Tories have won majorities is when my one nation wing of the party is in charge.
    Come on, that's a comment begging for the old XKCD cartoon.

    By that logic since I became old enough to vote the only times the Tories have won majorities is when their leader previously got a minority at the prior election. So by that precedent May should get one next time.
    One rule that the previous 8 GEs have followed :

    There has been a swing against the major governing party for the past 34 years. Last time that was bucked was 1983.
    Which all came about as many 1979 Labour voters went SDP in 1983, the Tory voteshare was fractionally down on 1979 in 1983.

    The easiest way for the Tories to win a majority next time then is for some 2017 Labour voters to go LD rather than having to convert Labour voters to voting Tory
  • AndyJS said:

    It's surprising the Tories won any Remain seats. Most of them were probably in Scotland.

    The only exception being Southport I suspect.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,860
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories can't afford to alienate Leavers even more considering a clear majority of Tory voters and seats voted Leave as did virtually every Tory seat gained last June outside of Scotland.

    In any case the reason the Tories gained seats in Scotland was on an anti indyref2 ticket not an anti Brexit ticket

    Why do people talk about Leave and Remain voters in the same terms as Catholics and Protestants? Most people didn't think the EU was a big issue until the referendum, and subsequent events can easily bring about dramatic shifts.
  • tpfkar said:

    TSE - are you nailed on to vote and campaign for the Tories as things stand? Or might Sheffield Hallam be lighting up orange again?

    The Tory vote surged by 10%, but still 3rd (LibDems down 5%, Labour up 3%) and that cost Nick Clegg his seat and gave us Mr O'Mara.
    Has he turned up for work yet?
    At parliament or his bar ?
  • AndyJS said:

    It's surprising the Tories won any Remain seats. Most of them were probably in Scotland.

    The Tories gained 12 seats in Scotland, total now 13.
  • Re arming teachers.

    I wonder how long it would be before a teacher lost his temper and opened fire on the class.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Most Labour MPs represent Leave constituencies.

    It is Labour who has to be very careful not to upset or upset Leavers.

    Anna Soubrey's constituency voted leave and she has alienated so many of her constituents by attempting to thwart Brexit that she will lose her seat next time- and she knows it, so she probably doesnt care who she upsets in the time she has left as an MP.

    The idea that it is only or even mainly Theresa May's Tories who have to be careful on Brexit is absurd.
  • Mr. Eagles, what would achieve that?

    A Tory majority.

    Since I became politically aware the only times the Tories have won majorities is when my one nation wing of the party is in charge.
    No. of Scottish seats won by Dave = 1
    No. of Scottish seats won by Theresa = 13
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,077

    Re arming teachers.

    I wonder how long it would be before a teacher lost his temper and opened fire on the class.

    Some of my teachers would have loved to get their hands on small arms frankly.
  • stevef said:

    Most Labour MPs represent Leave constituencies.

    It is Labour who has to be very careful not to upset or upset Leavers.

    Anna Soubrey's constituency voted leave and she has alienated so many of her constituents by attempting to thwart Brexit that she will lose her seat next time- and she knows it, so she probably doesnt care who she upsets in the time she has left as an MP.

    The idea that it is only or even mainly Theresa May's Tories who have to be careful on Brexit is absurd.

    Not convinced about Anna Soubry losing her seat for voting on her conscience. It will be upto her constituency party to decide if she is nominated and unless she brings the government down I expect her to stand for the party next time
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676
    edited February 23

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories can't afford to alienate Leavers even more considering a clear majority of Tory voters and seats voted Leave as did virtually every Tory seat gained last June outside of Scotland.

    In any case the reason the Tories gained seats in Scotland was on an anti indyref2 ticket not an anti Brexit ticket

    Why do people talk about Leave and Remain voters in the same terms as Catholics and Protestants? Most people didn't think the EU was a big issue until the referendum, and subsequent events can easily bring about dramatic shifts.
    Says the man who spends 24/7 complaining about the referendum result and virtually every waking minute posting about Brexit
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,417

    stevef said:

    Most Labour MPs represent Leave constituencies.

    It is Labour who has to be very careful not to upset or upset Leavers.

    Anna Soubrey's constituency voted leave and she has alienated so many of her constituents by attempting to thwart Brexit that she will lose her seat next time- and she knows it, so she probably doesnt care who she upsets in the time she has left as an MP.

    The idea that it is only or even mainly Theresa May's Tories who have to be careful on Brexit is absurd.

    Not convinced about Anna Soubry losing her seat for voting on her conscience. It will be upto her constituency party to decide if she is nominated and unless she brings the government down I expect her to stand for the party next time
    Yes, she’s every right to her opinion, and unless she votes against an actual confidence motion there’s no reason she won’t continue as a Conservative MP.
  • rcs1000 said:


    1. Setting own tariffs. Then you need to announce what they will be now. If you don't, it's very hard to engage in FTA discussions with third parties, as they want to know what tariff reductions there will be in return for signing with you.

    2. Make own laws. Of course. But let's not forgot that our membership of other multinational bodies restricts our ability to make our own laws. Or are we planning on exiting all agreements and treaties which have the right to impose unlimited fines on the UK if we pass domestic laws that breach those agreements? (Such as the scary International Telecoms Union.)

    3. Plan for Global Trading. Well, you could start by firing Liam Fox.

    4. Trade Talks. We are in trade talks with the EU. The Department for International Trade has also made some baby steps. The issue with the EU is that we want something bespoke. And the more bespoke you want something, the longer it takes to negotiate (and bespoke trade treaties *always* take a long time to agree). The issue with trade talks with other countries is Liam Fox.

    5. Negotiate as an equal. All trade treaties are balanced towards the bigger partner. In every US FTA, the dispute resolution mechanism has a majority of US judges. In the China-Switzerland FTA, the Swiss removed their tariffs on Chinese products on day one, while the Chinese slowly lowered theirs over 15 years. Ultimately, and despite their trade surplus, they are less dependent on our trade than we are on theirs.

    1. We are not able to discuss tariffs until we leave the EU as there is no clarity on what our position will be

    2. No other multinational body is able to make new laws under existing treaties to govern us without our express consent. This has always been the great lie in comparing the EU to any other multinational body. We signed up to a specific set of agreements when we joined those other bodies and without our clear consent they cannot alter or adjust those agreements. That is the whole basis of treaty law.

    3. I would have thought firing Liam Fox was something you should do without needing a reason.

    4. The issue with Trade Talks is that we are not allowed to start formal negotiations with anyone else as long as we are still in the EU. Oh and Liam Fox.

    5. We will never be able to negotiate as an equal as long as our needs are subsumed to the needs of another 27 or more members and we have no direct control over negotiations. Whether China wants to take 1 day or 100 years matters not if the people negotiating with them on our behalf do not have our best interests as their first and foremost necessity.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    stevef said:

    Most Labour MPs represent Leave constituencies.

    It is Labour who has to be very careful not to upset or upset Leavers.

    Anna Soubrey's constituency voted leave and she has alienated so many of her constituents by attempting to thwart Brexit that she will lose her seat next time- and she knows it, so she probably doesnt care who she upsets in the time she has left as an MP.

    The idea that it is only or even mainly Theresa May's Tories who have to be careful on Brexit is absurd.

    Not convinced about Anna Soubry losing her seat for voting on her conscience. It will be upto her constituency party to decide if she is nominated and unless she brings the government down I expect her to stand for the party next time
    I expect her to stand -but for upsetting her Leave constituents, I expect her to lose her seat. When Remain leavers upset Leavers, thats a matter of conscience, but what about when Leavers stand by their principles? Is that not a matter of conscience too?

    Either way, if the premise in the article is correct, its not just Tories who are at risk for upsetting the other side in the debate. Labour too could be penalised if it is seen to be obstructing the Brexit which most of its constituencies voted for.
  • Sandpit said:

    stevef said:

    Most Labour MPs represent Leave constituencies.

    It is Labour who has to be very careful not to upset or upset Leavers.

    Anna Soubrey's constituency voted leave and she has alienated so many of her constituents by attempting to thwart Brexit that she will lose her seat next time- and she knows it, so she probably doesnt care who she upsets in the time she has left as an MP.

    The idea that it is only or even mainly Theresa May's Tories who have to be careful on Brexit is absurd.

    Not convinced about Anna Soubry losing her seat for voting on her conscience. It will be upto her constituency party to decide if she is nominated and unless she brings the government down I expect her to stand for the party next time
    Yes, she’s every right to her opinion, and unless she votes against an actual confidence motion there’s no reason she won’t continue as a Conservative MP.
    The reality is that Anna and her supporters in the party have more power to influence the decisions even though there are not much more than 12 of them than JRM and his group and 65 plus supporters as the rest of the HOC ex the DUP will back Anna S and the rebels.

    Of course JRM could seek to take down TM but she would have to lose a confidence vote of her MP's and then a subsequent leadership race becomes entirely unpredictable with no certainty that a leaver would win.
  • stevef said:

    stevef said:

    Most Labour MPs represent Leave constituencies.

    It is Labour who has to be very careful not to upset or upset Leavers.

    Anna Soubrey's constituency voted leave and she has alienated so many of her constituents by attempting to thwart Brexit that she will lose her seat next time- and she knows it, so she probably doesnt care who she upsets in the time she has left as an MP.

    The idea that it is only or even mainly Theresa May's Tories who have to be careful on Brexit is absurd.

    Not convinced about Anna Soubry losing her seat for voting on her conscience. It will be upto her constituency party to decide if she is nominated and unless she brings the government down I expect her to stand for the party next time
    I expect her to stand -but for upsetting her Leave constituents, I expect her to lose her seat. When Remain leavers upset Leavers, thats a matter of conscience, but what about when Leavers stand by their principles? Is that not a matter of conscience too?

    Either way, if the premise in the article is correct, its not just Tories who are at risk for upsetting the other side in the debate. Labour too could be penalised if it is seen to be obstructing the Brexit which most of its constituencies voted for.
    By 2022 Brexit will not be the issue
  • Sandpit said:

    stevef said:

    Most Labour MPs represent Leave constituencies.

    It is Labour who has to be very careful not to upset or upset Leavers.

    Anna Soubrey's constituency voted leave and she has alienated so many of her constituents by attempting to thwart Brexit that she will lose her seat next time- and she knows it, so she probably doesnt care who she upsets in the time she has left as an MP.

    The idea that it is only or even mainly Theresa May's Tories who have to be careful on Brexit is absurd.

    Not convinced about Anna Soubry losing her seat for voting on her conscience. It will be upto her constituency party to decide if she is nominated and unless she brings the government down I expect her to stand for the party next time
    Yes, she’s every right to her opinion, and unless she votes against an actual confidence motion there’s no reason she won’t continue as a Conservative MP.
    The reality is that Anna and her supporters in the party have more power to influence the decisions even though there are not much more than 12 of them than JRM and his group and 65 plus supporters as the rest of the HOC ex the DUP will back Anna S and the rebels.

    Of course JRM could seek to take down TM but she would have to lose a confidence vote of her MP's and then a subsequent leadership race becomes entirely unpredictable with no certainty that a leaver would win.
    It may be they believe that having at least some chance of a Leaver winning would be better than having a Remainer staying in power.

    Not a position I would personally advocate but a logical position none the less from their point of view.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    Sandpit said:

    stevef said:

    Most Labour MPs represent Leave constituencies.

    It is Labour who has to be very careful not to upset or upset Leavers.

    Anna Soubrey's constituency voted leave and she has alienated so many of her constituents by attempting to thwart Brexit that she will lose her seat next time- and she knows it, so she probably doesnt care who she upsets in the time she has left as an MP.

    The idea that it is only or even mainly Theresa May's Tories who have to be careful on Brexit is absurd.

    Not convinced about Anna Soubry losing her seat for voting on her conscience. It will be upto her constituency party to decide if she is nominated and unless she brings the government down I expect her to stand for the party next time
    Yes, she’s every right to her opinion, and unless she votes against an actual confidence motion there’s no reason she won’t continue as a Conservative MP.
    The reality is that Anna and her supporters in the party have more power to influence the decisions even though there are not much more than 12 of them than JRM and his group and 65 plus supporters as the rest of the HOC ex the DUP will back Anna S and the rebels.

    Of course JRM could seek to take down TM but she would have to lose a confidence vote of her MP's and then a subsequent leadership race becomes entirely unpredictable with no certainty that a leaver would win.
    She will cease to be a Conservative MP, if her constituents (most of whom voted leave) vote her out next time -which I believe they will. She already has a tiny majority. She is entitled to her opinion, but if she acts on it, she will lose her seat at the next election.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,262

    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    Most Labour MPs represent Leave constituencies.

    It is Labour who has to be very careful not to upset or upset Leavers.

    Anna Soubrey's constituency voted leave and she has alienated so many of her constituents by attempting to thwart Brexit that she will lose her seat next time- and she knows it, so she probably doesnt care who she upsets in the time she has left as an MP.

    The idea that it is only or even mainly Theresa May's Tories who have to be careful on Brexit is absurd.

    Not convinced about Anna Soubry losing her seat for voting on her conscience. It will be upto her constituency party to decide if she is nominated and unless she brings the government down I expect her to stand for the party next time
    I expect her to stand -but for upsetting her Leave constituents, I expect her to lose her seat. When Remain leavers upset Leavers, thats a matter of conscience, but what about when Leavers stand by their principles? Is that not a matter of conscience too?

    Either way, if the premise in the article is correct, its not just Tories who are at risk for upsetting the other side in the debate. Labour too could be penalised if it is seen to be obstructing the Brexit which most of its constituencies voted for.
    By 2022 Brexit will not be the issue
    By 2017 Brexit was not the issue.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    The fruitcakes continue to take over the Asylum that is the Labour Party.

    Most people in the country of course dont care about Brexit anywhere near as much as the chattering class on here think they do.

    Remoaners can take heart however. They have Tony Blair as their leader, going on TV even as we speak, to rally the Nation to overthrow Brexit and stay in the EU.

    Good luck with that.
This discussion has been closed.