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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May may well yet achieve her ambition of leading her p

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 16 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May may well yet achieve her ambition of leading her party at the next election

One of the features about the current Russia crisis is what it is doing to perceptions of Theresa May. The latest polling overnight showing her getting huge backing from voters for the way she is handling things reflect how her approach is very much resonating with the public mood.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Oh no she won't
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,284
    edited March 16
    Unfortunately she always screws up.

    Just look at the most recent reshuffle and her attempt to nobble potential leaders in the making.

    PLUS let us not forget she's a terrible campaigner, she's an analogue politician in a digital age.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,291
    But who will go first is now a very interesting bet....

    Jezza now seems much more likely, May less so.

    She might well also outlast Vince too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678
    I'd not take a bet that she will, though it is a risk the longer the memory of 2017 fades. Cable seems likely to be the first to go, then may, then Corbyn (unless he chooses to go).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,417
    This is in some ways her Falklands moment. No PM ever lost popularity by responding harshly to aggressive foreign countries on British soil.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,476
    I see putins puppet is still saying we shouldn’t rush to any conclusions etc
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676
    Yes the latest Yougov gives a small swing to the Tories since the general election, enough even to maybe give a small Tory overall majority
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678
    edited March 16

    Unfortunately she always screws up.

    Just look at the most recent reshuffle and her attempt to nobble potential leaders in the making.

    PLUS let us not forget she's a terrible campaigner, she's an analogue politician in a digital age.

    I don't know why, but I find that expression really annoying. Curious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676

    Unfortunately she always screws up.

    Just look at the most recent reshuffle and her attempt to nobble potential leaders in the making.

    PLUS let us not forget she's a terrible campaigner, she's an analogue politician in a digital age.

    Yet she still got the highest voteshare for any PM at GE 2017 since Blair in 1997 and is back at that voteshare with Yougov today
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,179

    Oh no she won't

    If she succeeds on Brexit and is perceived to have stood up for the UK against Putin it is possible 2022 could be her redemption - but only time will tell but right now she is in a rock solid position
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,195

    Oh no she won't

    Two yellow cards TSE.

    One from the back of the last thread and the other for a dive to be first on this thread.

    Red card - Off to ConHome for the day.
  • HYUFD said:

    Unfortunately she always screws up.

    Just look at the most recent reshuffle and her attempt to nobble potential leaders in the making.

    PLUS let us not forget she's a terrible campaigner, she's an analogue politician in a digital age.

    Yet she still got the highest voteshare for any PM at GE 2017 since Blair in 1997 and is back at that voteshare with Yougov today
    My Sunday piece addresses that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,860
    edited March 16
    Saved by a Russian spy his daughter and a passing policeman.
  • kle4 said:

    Unfortunately she always screws up.

    Just look at the most recent reshuffle and her attempt to nobble potential leaders in the making.

    PLUS let us not forget she's a terrible campaigner, she's an analogue politician in a digital age.

    I don't know why, but I find that expression really annoying. Curious.
    Will you be happy with 'She's a VW diesel engine in a hybrid era'
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,417
    kle4 said:

    Unfortunately she always screws up.

    Just look at the most recent reshuffle and her attempt to nobble potential leaders in the making.

    PLUS let us not forget she's a terrible campaigner, she's an analogue politician in a digital age.

    I don't know why, but I find that expression really annoying. Curious.
    That expression suggests that spin is more important than substance. I would much rather have someone who takes their time over key decisions as PM at the moment, than someone who lives for the daily sound bite of the news cycle.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050
    I think both Jezza and May will last till the next election, and anyone laying Jez now for next PM will probably feel a bit sick.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678
    Sandpit said:

    This is in some ways her Falklands moment. No PM ever lost popularity by responding harshly to aggressive foreign countries on British soil.

    I'm sure that's true. But also that it will have little impact longer term. There are too many major issues she simply won't get a pass on.

    Even though Corbyn at the least had presented poorly on this, despite the rather silly attempts to suggest he has basically the same position as the government (his gutless mps would not have grumbled were that the case) mostly because in an attempt to look calm he is acting like we are frothing when we have not overreacted yet, merely reacted. The factors behind the parity of the parties, and Corbyn's baSE liking him, won't change.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,960
    Not least because she can call one early.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,195
    Jonathan said:

    Not least because she can call one early.

    If Mrs May calls an early election again, for purely party political reasons, she will deserve to lose further seats.
  • I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,179
    Roger said:

    Saved by a Russian spy his daughter and a policeman.

    And a perfect demonstration of why politics is so unpredictable - no one could have foreseen these events and it demonstrates why it is is not remotely possible to predict the future make up of a future government in these extraordinary times.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Unfortunately she always screws up.

    Just look at the most recent reshuffle and her attempt to nobble potential leaders in the making.

    PLUS let us not forget she's a terrible campaigner, she's an analogue politician in a digital age.

    I don't know why, but I find that expression really annoying. Curious.
    That expression suggests that spin is more important than substance. I would much rather have someone who takes their time over key decisions as PM at the moment, than someone who lives for the daily sound bite of the news cycle.
    Yes, although it is notable than when someone lacks the latter they attempt to suggest having it precludes having the former. That is, those with no style usually suggest having style therefore means having no substance, while those with style claim to have both.

    Gordon browns spinners made that argument, making him seem worse than he was, presentationally.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678

    kle4 said:

    Unfortunately she always screws up.

    Just look at the most recent reshuffle and her attempt to nobble potential leaders in the making.

    PLUS let us not forget she's a terrible campaigner, she's an analogue politician in a digital age.

    I don't know why, but I find that expression really annoying. Curious.
    Will you be happy with 'She's a VW diesel engine in a hybrid era'
    Oddly, yes.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,419
    She is basically an XX chromosome version of Gordon Brown (tin eared machine politician that appears to age at 2-3 times the normal human rate) so it wouldn't surprise me if she intendeds to contest the 2022 GE.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,194
    Sandpit said:

    This is in some ways her Falklands moment. No PM ever lost popularity by responding harshly to aggressive foreign countries on British soil.

    Does the Canal Zone count as British soil?

    The point being it's not the response that matters but the outcome. And we don't know what that will be yet.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,179

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Unfortunately she always screws up.

    Just look at the most recent reshuffle and her attempt to nobble potential leaders in the making.

    PLUS let us not forget she's a terrible campaigner, she's an analogue politician in a digital age.

    I don't know why, but I find that expression really annoying. Curious.
    Will you be happy with 'She's a VW diesel engine in a hybrid era'
    Oddly, yes.
    I shall amend Sunday's piece just for you.
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 21
    Or maybe a touch easier to see Labour losing. Good news!!
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 585

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    The EU won't risk Corbyn becoming PM after this week. What support could they expect from him if Putin comes calling on one of their members. The EU will want a deal that keeps May in situ.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 660
    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,661

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    The EU won't risk Corbyn becoming PM after this week. What support could they expect from him if Putin comes calling on one of their members. The EU will want a deal that keeps May in situ.
    I don't think that the EU has such a short term view or one that implies they want to influence the internal politics of another country.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Long way to go yet.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,184
    Oddly the last week has probably reduced the chances of Jeremy Corbyn being replaced before the next election too. He might well have considered standing down of his own volition if he could hand over to an anointed heir. With internal opposition in the party on the rise again, he can't afford to do that for the while.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,207

    I see putins puppet is still saying we shouldn’t rush to any conclusions etc

    If this was a Mossad hit — like the attempted assassination of Khaled Mashal — I suspect that there would be an entirely different response.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675
    Some of us have been saying this for months.

    There is no happy path for the Tories to ditch TMay and fare well at the next election. They may still fair badly anyway but I'm convinced she will lead them in 2022, unless she decides she's had enough and goes voluntarily. I suspect the temptation to have a shot at redeeming herself will be too great and she'll be there in 2022.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,719
    The worst thing that can happen to a politician is, broadly, being laughed at.

    Corbz keeps on like this and, well, ... two comics already died this week.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    I think this is the most likely outcome. The Russian stuff will be old news by the time of the next GE, and there hasn't been a (Two party) swing in favour of the government since 1983.
    Neither Corbyn nor May is too 'old' (Just look over the pond !). The Tories are going to look pretty tired by 2022, and May doesn't have Major's 92 cushion to absorb a likely swing against.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 660
    edited March 16

    Some of us have been saying this for months.

    There is no happy path for the Tories to ditch TMay and fare well at the next election. They may still fair badly anyway but I'm convinced she will lead them in 2022, unless she decides she's had enough and goes voluntarily. I suspect the temptation to have a shot at redeeming herself will be too great and she'll be there in 2022.

    The problem is despite the bad performance in the run up May actually did quite well at projecting an image that won a lot of votes. Her successor might struggle to hold those votes let alone expand the current voting coalition, without including voters lost after years in power. Which is partially why its difficult to replace her.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675

    Oddly the last week has probably reduced the chances of Jeremy Corbyn being replaced before the next election too. He might well have considered standing down of his own volition if he could hand over to an anointed heir. With internal opposition in the party on the rise again, he can't afford to do that for the while.

    Not sure that's right Alastair, though I see the logic. Another way to look at it is that he'll go willingly if he thinks the Labour shift to the left can be preserved with his successor, and that he has become the problem that might prevent progress at the next GE.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,262
    Dura_Ace said:

    She is basically an XX chromosome version of Gordon Brown (tin eared machine politician that appears to age at 2-3 times the normal human rate) so it wouldn't surprise me if she intendeds to contest the 2022 GE.

    Promoting Williamson and passing over Mercer and others looks more and more like a Gordonian plan to screw potential successors.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,788
    Roger said:

    Saved by a Russian spy his daughter and a passing policeman.

    Was keeping May in post the motive of the Russians?

    note to self: add more tinfoil to weekend shopping :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    I think this is the most likely outcome. The Russian stuff will be old news by the time of the next GE, and there hasn't been a (Two party) swing in favour of the government since 1983.
    Neither Corbyn nor May is too 'old' (Just look over the pond !). The Tories are going to look pretty tired by 2022, and May doesn't have Major's 92 cushion to absorb a likely swing against.
    Quite so. The idea Corbyn facing internal ructions and some bad press will shift him soon is also improbable based on past evidence. He's going nowhere, and is doubling down on opposing the government position (in tone at the very leadt), presumably banking on opinion shifting back on his favour later.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    I think this is the most likely outcome. The Russian stuff will be old news by the time of the next GE, and there hasn't been a (Two party) swing in favour of the government since 1983.
    Neither Corbyn nor May is too 'old' (Just look over the pond !). The Tories are going to look pretty tired by 2022, and May doesn't have Major's 92 cushion to absorb a likely swing against.
    Neither does Corbyn have a big Liberal vote to squeeze as Kinnnock did in 1992, indeed if there is a shift of a few voters from Labour to LD next time e.g. to a Jo Swinson led party that could be enough for a small Tory majority even if the Tory voteshare is unchanged or fractionally down
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    I think this is the most likely outcome. The Russian stuff will be old news by the time of the next GE, and there hasn't been a (Two party) swing in favour of the government since 1983.
    Neither Corbyn nor May is too 'old' (Just look over the pond !). The Tories are going to look pretty tired by 2022, and May doesn't have Major's 92 cushion to absorb a likely swing against.
    Neither does Corbyn have a big Liberal vote to squeeze as Kinnnock did in 1992, indeed if there is a shift of a few voters from Labour to LD next time e.g. to a Jo Swinson led party that could be enough for a small Tory majority even if the Tory voteshare is unchanged or fractionally down
    Is not con to ld at least if not more likely?
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Let's hope it strengthens her ability to withstand the pressure against a sensible soft Brexit from Mogg's end of the party.

    I agree May is having a good crisis so far. Her response has been measured and careful, in contrast to the silly and unstatesmanlike outbursts from Boris and Gavin Williamson.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Agreed. If, as TSE says: "No Tory MP will rebel now..." that certainly includes JRM and the other head-bangers. So TMay could probably choose whatever Brexit she wants and carry the party (today - it remains to be seen how long the Salisbury effect will last).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,417

    Some of us have been saying this for months.

    There is no happy path for the Tories to ditch TMay and fare well at the next election. They may still fair badly anyway but I'm convinced she will lead them in 2022, unless she decides she's had enough and goes voluntarily. I suspect the temptation to have a shot at redeeming herself will be too great and she'll be there in 2022.

    Right now any other Conservative leader polls worse than Mrs May, and that was true before this week. Gavin Williamson showed himself as out of his depth yesterday, the PM needs to promote the next generation and see who sinks and who swims.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,493

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    Tezza would have to up her game by significantly more than Jezza.

    I can hear her advisors saying: "But you handled the Russian crisis so well and everyone saw you fist bump that actual person so there really is no need to take part in the debates..."
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,262

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Agreed. If, as TSE says: "No Tory MP will rebel now..." that certainly includes JRM and the other head-bangers. So TMay could probably choose whatever Brexit she wants and carry the party (today - it remains to be seen how long the Salisbury effect will last).
    JRM has already folded, surely? "now is not the time to nitpick" (after the Mansion House speech).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    I think this is the most likely outcome. The Russian stuff will be old news by the time of the next GE, and there hasn't been a (Two party) swing in favour of the government since 1983.
    Neither Corbyn nor May is too 'old' (Just look over the pond !). The Tories are going to look pretty tired by 2022, and May doesn't have Major's 92 cushion to absorb a likely swing against.
    Neither does Corbyn have a big Liberal vote to squeeze as Kinnnock did in 1992, indeed if there is a shift of a few voters from Labour to LD next time e.g. to a Jo Swinson led party that could be enough for a small Tory majority even if the Tory voteshare is unchanged or fractionally down
    Is not con to ld at least if not more likely?
    No as the vast majority of Tory voters were Leave voters while the vast majority of Labour voters were Remain voters like the LDs
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    I think this is the most likely outcome. The Russian stuff will be old news by the time of the next GE, and there hasn't been a (Two party) swing in favour of the government since 1983.
    Neither Corbyn nor May is too 'old' (Just look over the pond !). The Tories are going to look pretty tired by 2022, and May doesn't have Major's 92 cushion to absorb a likely swing against.
    Neither does Corbyn have a big Liberal vote to squeeze as Kinnnock did in 1992, indeed if there is a shift of a few voters from Labour to LD next time e.g. to a Jo Swinson led party that could be enough for a small Tory majority even if the Tory voteshare is unchanged or fractionally down
    Is not con to ld at least if not more likely?
    Brexiteers who turned out for the Tories staying at home is the Conservative biggest risk I think.
    Stoke South, Mansfield could head back to Labour etc.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. Z, indeed.

    The Conservatives should remember just what a colossal catalogue of errors May's last campaign was.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,860
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Agreed. If, as TSE says: "No Tory MP will rebel now..." that certainly includes JRM and the other head-bangers. So TMay could probably choose whatever Brexit she wants and carry the party (today - it remains to be seen how long the Salisbury effect will last).
    JRM has already folded, surely? "now is not the time to nitpick" (after the Mansion House speech).
    JRM's investments in Russia seem to be getting some scrutiny too. He's probably due a period with a lower profile.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Agreed. If, as TSE says: "No Tory MP will rebel now..." that certainly includes JRM and the other head-bangers. So TMay could probably choose whatever Brexit she wants and carry the party (today - it remains to be seen how long the Salisbury effect will last).
    JRM has already folded, surely? "now is not the time to nitpick" (after the Mansion House speech).
    True, but the Remainer in me believes (hopes) he might fold further as the ever-softer Brexit emerges. :wink:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Agreed. If, as TSE says: "No Tory MP will rebel now..." that certainly includes JRM and the other head-bangers. So TMay could probably choose whatever Brexit she wants and carry the party (today - it remains to be seen how long the Salisbury effect will last).
    JRM has already folded, surely? "now is not the time to nitpick" (after the Mansion House speech).
    Equally, the Soubry wing seem to have toned down the belligerence. I strongly suspect the vast majority of Tories will get behind Theresa May's "Goldilocks Brexit", each taking comfort that they did their bit to mitigate the worst excesses of their idealogical opponents.

    Then get on with giving Corbyn a good kicking.....
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    The EU won't risk Corbyn becoming PM after this week. What support could they expect from him if Putin comes calling on one of their members. The EU will want a deal that keeps May in situ.
    I don't think that the EU has such a short term view or one that implies they want to influence the internal politics of another country.
    Plus some powerful EU states, notably Germany, do too much business with Russia and are too dependent on their gas supplies to be willing to provoke a belligerent new mini cold war. Yesterday Merkel and Macron felt they had to express solidarity with us but that doesn't mean they will support a concrete response that moves beyond a mild or meaningless knuckle rap for Putin.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 660
    TOPPING said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    Tezza would have to up her game by significantly more than Jezza.

    I can hear her advisors saying: "But you handled the Russian crisis so well and everyone saw you fist bump that actual person so there really is no need to take part in the debates..."
    Lol!

    I was actually impressed when I watched it, though I guess low expectations helps there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,788
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    I think this is the most likely outcome. The Russian stuff will be old news by the time of the next GE, and there hasn't been a (Two party) swing in favour of the government since 1983.
    Neither Corbyn nor May is too 'old' (Just look over the pond !). The Tories are going to look pretty tired by 2022, and May doesn't have Major's 92 cushion to absorb a likely swing against.
    Quite so. The idea Corbyn facing internal ructions and some bad press will shift him soon is also improbable based on past evidence. He's going nowhere, and is doubling down on opposing the government position (in tone at the very leadt), presumably banking on opinion shifting back on his favour later.
    I think the last sentence is incorrect, if there is one thing that we know about Jezza is that he is not one to sweat over polling shifts and unpopularity.

    Sandpit said:

    This is in some ways her Falklands moment. No PM ever lost popularity by responding harshly to aggressive foreign countries on British soil.

    The point being it's not the response that matters but the outcome. And we don't know what that will be yet.
    Yes, how will this look in a few years, or even a few months time is very uncertain.

    This is a fire-fighting government that jumps from crisis to crisis, but without real purpose or strategy. That applies to all arms of government, Foreign policy, defence, Brexit, Health, Social care, prisons, immigration, education, universities, etc etc
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050
    Foxy said:


    I think the last sentence is incorrect, if there is one thing that we know about Jezza is that he is not one to sweat over polling shifts and unpopularity.

    And quite rightly too I think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    I think this is the most likely outcome. The Russian stuff will be old news by the time of the next GE, and there hasn't been a (Two party) swing in favour of the government since 1983.
    Neither Corbyn nor May is too 'old' (Just look over the pond !). The Tories are going to look pretty tired by 2022, and May doesn't have Major's 92 cushion to absorb a likely swing against.
    Quite so. The idea Corbyn facing internal ructions and some bad press will shift him soon is also improbable based on past evidence. He's going nowhere, and is doubling down on opposing the government position (in tone at the very leadt), presumably banking on opinion shifting back on his favour later.
    I think the last sentence is incorrect, if there is one thing that we know about Jezza is that he is not one to sweat over polling shifts and unpopularity.
    Except as has been noted in recent times he has become professional and even flexible as leader, adjusting his position on Brexit and the like. Either his values changed, which we are told they do not do, or he has become more attuned to the need to appeal more to things. I think he simply finds it impossible to unequivocally support the government, so he has taken a slightly contrary approach, in opposition to his many of his own MPs again, because he thinks longer term it at least has the chance of being shown as right in the long run (we have already seen how that will play out - it will be a 'he was right about iraq' style argument), whereas he sees no benefit to party or cause to backing the government.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,425
    Brexit won't be resolved by the next election unless there is a BINO acceptable to most Leavers. I don't particularly expect the UK to stomp off to No Deal, which would unresolve the situation further. I think a lengthy stalemate is likely until the UK signs up to the EU agenda. The EU doesn't have an interest in minimising the contradictions of Brexit. It's hard to see Conservative Brexiteers leaping on board quickly. Even a BINO will take several years to negotiate, including third party agreements. Anything more complex will take much longer.

    In short Brexit will be on the boil for years and there won't be an obviously good time for the PM to be replaced. Mrs May might decide she has had enough and step down. Most likely this will be just after the UK formally leaves the EU in April next year
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:


    I think the last sentence is incorrect, if there is one thing that we know about Jezza is that he is not one to sweat over polling shifts and unpopularity.

    And quite rightly too I think.
    Except, if the polls were to settle around say Tories 42%, Labour 35% - there will be the dawning realisation that Corbyn is not going to stop them from going down to yet another defeat to the Tories. That will start concentrating minds.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,179
    HHemmelig said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Let's hope it strengthens her ability to withstand the pressure against a sensible soft Brexit from Mogg's end of the party.

    I agree May is having a good crisis so far. Her response has been measured and careful, in contrast to the silly and unstatesmanlike outbursts from Boris and Gavin Williamson.
    Boris is Boris but Williamson is immature and when I heard his response yesterday I was stunned by it. He has a very long way to go
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572
    TOPPING said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    Tezza would have to up her game by significantly more than Jezza.

    I can hear her advisors saying: "But you handled the Russian crisis so well and everyone saw you fist bump that actual person so there really is no need to take part in the debates..."
    Jezza's biggest enemy is time. He is the classic Old Man In A Hurry, of whom the old saying warns us to beware. He will be 73 in 2022 and this will seriously damage his chances of winning the election if the parliament runs its full course. His best chance of becoming PM is & always has been if an early election is forced.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675
    edited March 16
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    I think this is the most likely outcome. The Russian stuff will be old news by the time of the next GE, and there hasn't been a (Two party) swing in favour of the government since 1983.
    Neither Corbyn nor May is too 'old' (Just look over the pond !). The Tories are going to look pretty tired by 2022, and May doesn't have Major's 92 cushion to absorb a likely swing against.
    Neither does Corbyn have a big Liberal vote to squeeze as Kinnnock did in 1992, indeed if there is a shift of a few voters from Labour to LD next time e.g. to a Jo Swinson led party that could be enough for a small Tory majority even if the Tory voteshare is unchanged or fractionally down
    Is not con to ld at least if not more likely?
    No as the vast majority of Tory voters were Leave voters while the vast majority of Labour voters were Remain voters like the LDs
    39% of Tory voters bvoted Remain; 35% of Labour voters voted Leave according to YouGov. Those are sizeable minorities.

    (PS Though what to make of the 5% of UKIP voters who voted Remain is beyond me!)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,291
    Morningstar marketeer mouthpiece...

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,077
    Williamson is so desperate to be back in the inner circle isn't he?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675

    HHemmelig said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Let's hope it strengthens her ability to withstand the pressure against a sensible soft Brexit from Mogg's end of the party.

    I agree May is having a good crisis so far. Her response has been measured and careful, in contrast to the silly and unstatesmanlike outbursts from Boris and Gavin Williamson.
    Boris is Boris but Williamson is immature and when I heard his response yesterday I was stunned by it. He has a very long way to go
    How long can Boris get away with things because "Boris is Boris"?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,425
    edited March 16

    Some of us have been saying this for months.

    There is no happy path for the Tories to ditch TMay and fare well at the next election. They may still fair badly anyway but I'm convinced she will lead them in 2022, unless she decides she's had enough and goes voluntarily. I suspect the temptation to have a shot at redeeming herself will be too great and she'll be there in 2022.

    Oddly your three points apply to Labour too. There's no easy way to ditch Corbyn, he might go of his own accord, but is probably up for the chase. The default is both May and Corbyn but there is the real possibility that one or both might have resigned by 2022
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678
    edited March 16
    One thing is for clear, we can be sure that statements from Corbyn's office that he believes the government's position are probably not true. Warning people not to make hasty judgements on Russia when they supposedly accepted the propositions put forward by the PM, is clearly a statement he is not yet satisfied to the same degree. Which is a position he is entitled to take, but that does not mean others are being hasty. Nor does it make reacting on that basis some sort of insane drift to war.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,191
    FF43 said:

    Some of us have been saying this for months.

    There is no happy path for the Tories to ditch TMay and fare well at the next election. They may still fair badly anyway but I'm convinced she will lead them in 2022, unless she decides she's had enough and goes voluntarily. I suspect the temptation to have a shot at redeeming herself will be too great and she'll be there in 2022.

    Oddly your three points apply to Labour too. There's no easy way to ditch Corbyn, he might go of his own accord, but is probably up for the chase. The default is both May and Corbyn but there is the real possibility that one or both might have resigned by 2022
    I think May will go, her allies will tell her to go, not her opposition within the party. Five years as PM would look pretty good on your CV after all.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,179

    HHemmelig said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Let's hope it strengthens her ability to withstand the pressure against a sensible soft Brexit from Mogg's end of the party.

    I agree May is having a good crisis so far. Her response has been measured and careful, in contrast to the silly and unstatesmanlike outbursts from Boris and Gavin Williamson.
    Boris is Boris but Williamson is immature and when I heard his response yesterday I was stunned by it. He has a very long way to go
    How long can Boris get away with things because "Boris is Boris"?
    No idea but probably indefinitely but it is unlikely he will succeed TM (he will not get my vote)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,493
    HHemmelig said:

    TOPPING said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    Tezza would have to up her game by significantly more than Jezza.

    I can hear her advisors saying: "But you handled the Russian crisis so well and everyone saw you fist bump that actual person so there really is no need to take part in the debates..."
    Jezza's biggest enemy is time. He is the classic Old Man In A Hurry, of whom the old saying warns us to beware. He will be 73 in 2022 and this will seriously damage his chances of winning the election if the parliament runs its full course. His best chance of becoming PM is & always has been if an early election is forced.
    If he is eloquent on the stump, wears his Wolfie apparel to public gatherings and Goldman Sachs suit & tie on Newsnight I don't think people will mind his age.

    I was going to then say, that if anyone should mention it, he needs only make a reference to the Royal Family and their longevity to a) disperse criticism, and b) bring the unlikeliest of sceptics on side...but then I realised, sadly, that no one can be sure who will be the monarch, come 2020 although I would happily back at odds on it will still be HMQ.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    F1: early forecast, but rain may happen for the Australian Grand Prix. In those circumstances, Verstappen, Alonso and maybe Hulkenberg will be value.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675
    FF43 said:

    Some of us have been saying this for months.

    There is no happy path for the Tories to ditch TMay and fare well at the next election. They may still fair badly anyway but I'm convinced she will lead them in 2022, unless she decides she's had enough and goes voluntarily. I suspect the temptation to have a shot at redeeming herself will be too great and she'll be there in 2022.

    Oddly your three points apply to Labour too. There's no easy way to ditch Corbyn, he might go of his own accord, but is probably up for the chase. The default is both May and Corbyn but there is the real possibility that one or both might have resigned by 2022
    Agreed. Suspect slightly more chance Corbyn resign if he thinks the 'project' is safe. May is nothing if not a stayer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050

    HHemmelig said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Let's hope it strengthens her ability to withstand the pressure against a sensible soft Brexit from Mogg's end of the party.

    I agree May is having a good crisis so far. Her response has been measured and careful, in contrast to the silly and unstatesmanlike outbursts from Boris and Gavin Williamson.
    Boris is Boris but Williamson is immature and when I heard his response yesterday I was stunned by it. He has a very long way to go
    How long can Boris get away with things because "Boris is Boris"?
    Depends if Mogg is in the leadership contest.

    Have just laid a bit more Mogg next PM, can't see how its a 5-1 shot right now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678
    TOPPING said:

    HHemmelig said:

    TOPPING said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    Tezza would have to up her game by significantly more than Jezza.

    I can hear her advisors saying: "But you handled the Russian crisis so well and everyone saw you fist bump that actual person so there really is no need to take part in the debates..."
    Jezza's biggest enemy is time. He is the classic Old Man In A Hurry, of whom the old saying warns us to beware. He will be 73 in 2022 and this will seriously damage his chances of winning the election if the parliament runs its full course. His best chance of becoming PM is & always has been if an early election is forced.
    If he is eloquent on the stump, wears his Wolfie apparel to public gatherings and Goldman Sachs suit & tie on Newsnight I don't think people will mind his age.

    He seems in pretty good shape for his age. Some of the most energetic and dynamic people I know are over 70, remarkably, which always makes me feel like a lazy slob, being only 31.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,417
    HHemmelig said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    The EU won't risk Corbyn becoming PM after this week. What support could they expect from him if Putin comes calling on one of their members. The EU will want a deal that keeps May in situ.
    I don't think that the EU has such a short term view or one that implies they want to influence the internal politics of another country.
    Plus some powerful EU states, notably Germany, do too much business with Russia and are too dependent on their gas supplies to be willing to provoke a belligerent new mini cold war. Yesterday Merkel and Macron felt they had to express solidarity with us but that doesn't mean they will support a concrete response that moves beyond a mild or meaningless knuckle rap for Putin.
    Which is why Europe needs to get fracking. Starting yesterday.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,296
    When he isn't jacking off horses, your uncle subs for the DM.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675

    HHemmelig said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Let's hope it strengthens her ability to withstand the pressure against a sensible soft Brexit from Mogg's end of the party.

    I agree May is having a good crisis so far. Her response has been measured and careful, in contrast to the silly and unstatesmanlike outbursts from Boris and Gavin Williamson.
    Boris is Boris but Williamson is immature and when I heard his response yesterday I was stunned by it. He has a very long way to go
    How long can Boris get away with things because "Boris is Boris"?
    No idea but probably indefinitely but it is unlikely he will succeed TM (he will not get my vote)
    Glad to hear it!

    Is there a serious possibility that, if May is challenged, she makes it to the last two and if so would the membership back her? I always feel that the Tory membership (small though it is theses days!) has a strong streak of loyalty through it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678

    HHemmelig said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Let's hope it strengthens her ability to withstand the pressure against a sensible soft Brexit from Mogg's end of the party.

    I agree May is having a good crisis so far. Her response has been measured and careful, in contrast to the silly and unstatesmanlike outbursts from Boris and Gavin Williamson.
    Boris is Boris but Williamson is immature and when I heard his response yesterday I was stunned by it. He has a very long way to go
    How long can Boris get away with things because "Boris is Boris"?
    No idea but probably indefinitely but it is unlikely he will succeed TM (he will not get my vote)
    Ah, so you're a Gove man?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,669
    On topic, I agree with Mike on the narrow technicality of the article's conclusion: "she might even now make it to the next general election" but not that of the headline. To say that she "may well" do so overstates her chances.

    What I think the Salisbury Attack has done in terms of the timing of any challenge / handover is seriously reduce the chance of it being this year.

    But then I always thought that Summer 2019 was the most likely moment.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,254
    Agreed. Theresa is having a superb crisis and has successfully re-branded herself as the Mother of the Nation. She just has to be careful, as happened with Gordon during the banking crisis, that she doesn't appear to be enjoying it too much. Of course, if Russia was suddenly proven innocent then Jezza would be vindicated, hailed the wisest of the wise and carried aloft to Number Ten by the delirious multitude, but I can't see that happening.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,179

    HHemmelig said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Let's hope it strengthens her ability to withstand the pressure against a sensible soft Brexit from Mogg's end of the party.

    I agree May is having a good crisis so far. Her response has been measured and careful, in contrast to the silly and unstatesmanlike outbursts from Boris and Gavin Williamson.
    Boris is Boris but Williamson is immature and when I heard his response yesterday I was stunned by it. He has a very long way to go
    How long can Boris get away with things because "Boris is Boris"?
    No idea but probably indefinitely but it is unlikely he will succeed TM (he will not get my vote)
    Glad to hear it!

    Is there a serious possibility that, if May is challenged, she makes it to the last two and if so would the membership back her? I always feel that the Tory membership (small though it is theses days!) has a strong streak of loyalty through it.
    I do not expect a challenge as she would win it and as far as this member is concerned I think most know I am loyal to the leadership
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 27,693
    Not entirely clear what this means.....

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675

    When he isn't jacking off horses, your uncle subs for the DM.

    Hahaha - brilliant on so many levels!

    (I haven't lowered myself to buy it, so this is just hearsay, but one of the comments to Mance's twitter notes that the DM still has "Newspaper of the Year" in it's masthead. Not that they're sore or anything.)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,179
    kle4 said:

    HHemmelig said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Let's hope it strengthens her ability to withstand the pressure against a sensible soft Brexit from Mogg's end of the party.

    I agree May is having a good crisis so far. Her response has been measured and careful, in contrast to the silly and unstatesmanlike outbursts from Boris and Gavin Williamson.
    Boris is Boris but Williamson is immature and when I heard his response yesterday I was stunned by it. He has a very long way to go
    How long can Boris get away with things because "Boris is Boris"?
    No idea but probably indefinitely but it is unlikely he will succeed TM (he will not get my vote)
    Ah, so you're a Gove man?
    He does have qualities but I expect another female will succeed TM in due course
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572
    TOPPING said:

    HHemmelig said:

    TOPPING said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    Tezza would have to up her game by significantly more than Jezza.

    I can hear her advisors saying: "But you handled the Russian crisis so well and everyone saw you fist bump that actual person so there really is no need to take part in the debates..."
    Jezza's biggest enemy is time. He is the classic Old Man In A Hurry, of whom the old saying warns us to beware. He will be 73 in 2022 and this will seriously damage his chances of winning the election if the parliament runs its full course. His best chance of becoming PM is & always has been if an early election is forced.
    If he is eloquent on the stump, wears his Wolfie apparel to public gatherings and Goldman Sachs suit & tie on Newsnight I don't think people will mind his age.

    I was going to then say, that if anyone should mention it, he needs only make a reference to the Royal Family and their longevity to a) disperse criticism, and b) bring the unlikeliest of sceptics on side...but then I realised, sadly, that no one can be sure who will be the monarch, come 2020 although I would happily back at odds on it will still be HMQ.
    You might be right, but many people age a great deal between their late 60s and early 70s. Especially in a highly stressful job like his when most of those his age are already retired. Will people really be willing to elect someone who will be pushing 80 at the time of the following election? Presumably against a younger and fresher face on the Tory side? It does depend of course who the Tories replace May with. But some people I know on the sane side of the Labour party are not confident that there will ever be a Prime Minister Corbyn.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,526
    Sandpit said:

    Some of us have been saying this for months.

    There is no happy path for the Tories to ditch TMay and fare well at the next election. They may still fair badly anyway but I'm convinced she will lead them in 2022, unless she decides she's had enough and goes voluntarily. I suspect the temptation to have a shot at redeeming herself will be too great and she'll be there in 2022.

    Right now any other Conservative leader polls worse than Mrs May, and that was true before this week. Gavin Williamson showed himself as out of his depth yesterday, the PM needs to promote the next generation and see who sinks and who swims.
    May's best hope of a legacy might be in promoting the right successor. If the best she can think of is Williamson we're all in trouble.
  • Not entirely clear what this means.....

    The scenarios described to Sky News have been broadly interpreted by the industry as "hard Brexit", "soft Brexit" and "no deal". It is the last scenario that has raised the most eyebrows in industry.

    "This is what we call the 'Throw Open the Borders option,'" said one operator. The scenario involves the UK on day one of Brexit unilaterally deciding not to enforce customs checks, and other border checks, and presuming that a reciprocal approach will be taken by the European Union, and thus at least temporarily maintaining a non-negotiated form of frictionless trade in goods.

    https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-forensics-playing-chicken-with-the-channel-tunnel-11291767
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675

    HHemmelig said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    Actually I think it may have made a softer Brexit more likely
    Let's hope it strengthens her ability to withstand the pressure against a sensible soft Brexit from Mogg's end of the party.

    I agree May is having a good crisis so far. Her response has been measured and careful, in contrast to the silly and unstatesmanlike outbursts from Boris and Gavin Williamson.
    Boris is Boris but Williamson is immature and when I heard his response yesterday I was stunned by it. He has a very long way to go
    How long can Boris get away with things because "Boris is Boris"?
    No idea but probably indefinitely but it is unlikely he will succeed TM (he will not get my vote)
    Glad to hear it!

    Is there a serious possibility that, if May is challenged, she makes it to the last two and if so would the membership back her? I always feel that the Tory membership (small though it is theses days!) has a strong streak of loyalty through it.
    I do not expect a challenge as she would win it and as far as this member is concerned I think most know I am loyal to the leadership
    You are indeed - and although I really dislike many Tory policies, I salute your loyalty. TMay is one of the better Tories.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675

    Not entirely clear what this means.....

    The scenarios described to Sky News have been broadly interpreted by the industry as "hard Brexit", "soft Brexit" and "no deal". It is the last scenario that has raised the most eyebrows in industry.

    "This is what we call the 'Throw Open the Borders option,'" said one operator. The scenario involves the UK on day one of Brexit unilaterally deciding not to enforce customs checks, and other border checks, and presuming that a reciprocal approach will be taken by the European Union, and thus at least temporarily maintaining a non-negotiated form of frictionless trade in goods.

    https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-forensics-playing-chicken-with-the-channel-tunnel-11291767
    Wouldn't we be in breach of WTO obligations if we favour the EU in that way? Not saying that that should stop us but it might quickly cause problems.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,417

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:


    I think the last sentence is incorrect, if there is one thing that we know about Jezza is that he is not one to sweat over polling shifts and unpopularity.

    And quite rightly too I think.
    Except, if the polls were to settle around say Tories 42%, Labour 35% - there will be the dawning realisation that Corbyn is not going to stop them from going down to yet another defeat to the Tories. That will start concentrating minds.
    But the Faithful will point to what happened during the campaign last year, and think it could play out the same way again.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,526
    Sandpit said:

    HHemmelig said:

    I think you're also forgetting about Brexit, she's got to come up with a deal that satisfies the like of both JRM and Anna Soubry.

    Discuss: Vladimir Putin has just ensured a Hard/no deal/WTO Brexit with the events in Salisbury.

    No Tory MP will rebel now, they just won’t risk making Corbyn PM after Corbyn's conduct this week.

    The EU won't risk Corbyn becoming PM after this week. What support could they expect from him if Putin comes calling on one of their members. The EU will want a deal that keeps May in situ.
    I don't think that the EU has such a short term view or one that implies they want to influence the internal politics of another country.
    Plus some powerful EU states, notably Germany, do too much business with Russia and are too dependent on their gas supplies to be willing to provoke a belligerent new mini cold war. Yesterday Merkel and Macron felt they had to express solidarity with us but that doesn't mean they will support a concrete response that moves beyond a mild or meaningless knuckle rap for Putin.
    Which is why Europe needs to get fracking. Starting yesterday.
    Surely a lot more expensive than Russian gas?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675

    Sandpit said:

    Some of us have been saying this for months.

    There is no happy path for the Tories to ditch TMay and fare well at the next election. They may still fair badly anyway but I'm convinced she will lead them in 2022, unless she decides she's had enough and goes voluntarily. I suspect the temptation to have a shot at redeeming herself will be too great and she'll be there in 2022.

    Right now any other Conservative leader polls worse than Mrs May, and that was true before this week. Gavin Williamson showed himself as out of his depth yesterday, the PM needs to promote the next generation and see who sinks and who swims.
    May's best hope of a legacy might be in promoting the right successor. If the best she can think of is Williamson we're all in trouble.
    I think Williamson was the best Williamson could think of. :wink:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,179

    Not entirely clear what this means.....

    Faisal Islam and Adam Boulton have led a campaign this week on Sky to demolish leave and to influence us to stay. It has been blatant pro remain propaganda unworthy of a so called balanced broadcaster.

    But then you only need to see Faisal Islam's tweets on this forum to see he obsessed with the EU
  • Not entirely clear what this means.....

    The scenarios described to Sky News have been broadly interpreted by the industry as "hard Brexit", "soft Brexit" and "no deal". It is the last scenario that has raised the most eyebrows in industry.

    "This is what we call the 'Throw Open the Borders option,'" said one operator. The scenario involves the UK on day one of Brexit unilaterally deciding not to enforce customs checks, and other border checks, and presuming that a reciprocal approach will be taken by the European Union, and thus at least temporarily maintaining a non-negotiated form of frictionless trade in goods.

    https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-forensics-playing-chicken-with-the-channel-tunnel-11291767
    Wouldn't we be in breach of WTO obligations if we favour the EU in that way? Not saying that that should stop us but it might quickly cause problems.
    It is a plan with a great many flaws.

    This is what taking back of control of our laws and borders means.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,661

    Not entirely clear what this means.....

    Faisal Islam and Adam Boulton have led a campaign this week on Sky to demolish leave and to influence us to stay. It has been blatant pro remain propaganda unworthy of a so called balanced broadcaster.

    But then you only need to see Faisal Islam's tweets on this forum to see he obsessed with the EU
    There is either a 'Secret Brexit Deal' or there is not. If there is it's news.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:


    I think the last sentence is incorrect, if there is one thing that we know about Jezza is that he is not one to sweat over polling shifts and unpopularity.

    And quite rightly too I think.
    Except, if the polls were to settle around say Tories 42%, Labour 35% - there will be the dawning realisation that Corbyn is not going to stop them from going down to yet another defeat to the Tories. That will start concentrating minds.
    But the Faithful will point to what happened during the campaign last year, and think it could play out the same way again.
    Well he's a good campaigner. May doesn't need to beat him campaigning, but the public will forgive her slightly wooden manner providing she shows up
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,493
    HHemmelig said:

    TOPPING said:

    HHemmelig said:

    TOPPING said:

    I'm up for May vs Corbyn take 2, think Labour will fancy their chances of improving on their current position in that scenario.

    Also the talk of Corbyn being replaced is very optimistic, it just doesn't look likely at all.

    Tezza would have to up her game by significantly more than Jezza.

    I can hear her advisors saying: "But you handled the Russian crisis so well and everyone saw you fist bump that actual person so there really is no need to take part in the debates..."
    Jezza's biggest enemy is time. He is the classic Old Man In A Hurry, of whom the old saying warns us to beware. He will be 73 in 2022 and this will seriously damage his chances of winning the election if the parliament runs its full course. His best chance of becoming PM is & always has been if an early election is forced.
    If he is eloquent on the stump, wears his Wolfie apparel to public gatherings and Goldman Sachs suit & tie on Newsnight I don't think people will mind his age.

    I was going to then say, that if anyone should mention it, he needs only make a reference to the Royal Family and their longevity to a) disperse criticism, and b) bring the unlikeliest of sceptics on side...but then I realised, sadly, that no one can be sure who will be the monarch, come 2020 although I would happily back at odds on it will still be HMQ.
    You might be right, but many people age a great deal between their late 60s and early 70s. Especially in a highly stressful job like his when most of those his age are already retired. Will people really be willing to elect someone who will be pushing 80 at the time of the following election? Presumably against a younger and fresher face on the Tory side? It does depend of course who the Tories replace May with. But some people I know on the sane side of the Labour party are not confident that there will ever be a Prime Minister Corbyn.
    And we can only hope that they are right. But I can see the scenario whereby they aren't and I hope to hell that Tezza's or the Cons Party's advisers can also.

    On a side note, I had previously teetered on the edge of the side of the corner of no-man's land of thinking that if Lab get someone halfway sensible, and the Cons had continued on the JRM-induced bonkers Brexit path, then I could see how I would, er, perhaps, maybe, NOT vote Cons.

    But I have to say that things seem to have untoxified a tadge at Cons HQ.
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