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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After last week’s Tory loss of 5 local by-elections the blue t

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 16 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After last week’s Tory loss of 5 local by-elections the blue team returns to its winning ways

Stamford, St. George’s on South Kesteven (Con defence) Result: Con 309 (46% +13% on last time), Ind 174 (26%, no candidate last time), Lab 114 (17% +1% on last time), Lib Dem 68 (10%, no candidate last time), Green 13 (2% -10% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -19%. No Stamford Independent this time -19%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 135 (20%) on a notional swing of 6.5% from Ind to Con (16% from UKIP to Con)

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,097
    edited March 16
    First, like Native River.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050
    edited March 16
    Not the worst Gold cup ever, Djakadam placing returns a tenner profit overall.
    Difficult to tell proper swings with independents - though Harry does great work here.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,097
    Pulpstar said:

    Not the worst Gold cup ever, Djakadam placing returns a tenner profit overall.

    I went with Ladbrokes for longer odds but one less place. :(
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,403
    edited March 16
    Not surprised they've deselected Sir Robin Wales in Newham.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,184
    Discussion FPT on tidal barrages...
    (Which could, of course, also provide potential pumped storage)

    The Swansea and Cardiff lagoons would together provide around 2% of UK electricity demand:
    http://www.bath.ac.uk/i-see/images/PP_-_Ton_Fijen_Final_Oct_2017.pdf
    (All 6 mooted tidal projects would provide up to 9% of demand)
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,273
    Nigelb said:

    Discussion FPT on tidal barrages...
    (Which could, of course, also provide potential pumped storage)

    The Swansea and Cardiff lagoons would together provide around 2% of UK electricity demand:
    http://www.bath.ac.uk/i-see/images/PP_-_Ton_Fijen_Final_Oct_2017.pdf
    (All 6 mooted tidal projects would provide up to 9% of demand)

    It would presumably lead to longer days as the earth slows down.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,179
    Met Police announce a murder investigation following the death of 68 year old Russian Nikolai Glushkov earlier this week
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Not the worst Gold cup ever, Djakadam placing returns a tenner profit overall.

    I went with Ladbrokes for longer odds but one less place. :(
    Like Saccone in the house seat, goalposts hit D:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,184
    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,184
    Anorak said:

    Nigelb said:

    Discussion FPT on tidal barrages...
    (Which could, of course, also provide potential pumped storage)

    The Swansea and Cardiff lagoons would together provide around 2% of UK electricity demand:
    http://www.bath.ac.uk/i-see/images/PP_-_Ton_Fijen_Final_Oct_2017.pdf
    (All 6 mooted tidal projects would provide up to 9% of demand)

    It would presumably lead to longer days as the earth slows down.
    Not so you'd notice.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050

    Met Police announce a murder investigation following the death of 68 year old Russian Nikolai Glushkov earlier this week

    Met police vs KGB...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. 86, I'm in the same boat. Still, that's betting.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    F1: just a further ramble following earlier prognostications pertaining to Verstappen (and also Alonso, maybe Hulkenberg) being value if it rains.

    Time enough for the weather forecast to change, and the Red Bull should have better race pace than qualifying speed, so I'd advocate not betting yet even if you think he'll do well.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,269

    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

    No
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,570
    Russia seems to be acting far more recklessly to me now than it did as the USSR in Soviet times, when - even at its worst - it exhibited a basic level of geopolitical sanity.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 975

    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

    I saw an interview with the makers of Babylon Berlin (set in the Weimar period) and they said it felt like we were in an interwar period.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,669

    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

    No.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050

    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

    Does this mean Corbyn's day will come in 2 years time ?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,273
    Nigelb said:

    Anorak said:

    Nigelb said:

    Discussion FPT on tidal barrages...
    (Which could, of course, also provide potential pumped storage)

    The Swansea and Cardiff lagoons would together provide around 2% of UK electricity demand:
    http://www.bath.ac.uk/i-see/images/PP_-_Ton_Fijen_Final_Oct_2017.pdf
    (All 6 mooted tidal projects would provide up to 9% of demand)

    It would presumably lead to longer days as the earth slows down.
    Not so you'd notice.
    My Casio does to the hundredth of a second!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465
    FPT Elliott "Do you have a source?"

    There's a huge amount of detail buried in here:

    http://www.tidallagoonpower.com/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,860

    Russia seems to be acting far more recklessly to me now than it did as the USSR in Soviet times, when - even at its worst - it exhibited a basic level of geopolitical sanity.

    With Russia under pressure economically, I think Putin feels a sense of urgency about turning the geopolitical tables that he didn't feel previously. He seems to be looking for escalation and conflict.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465
    Pulpstar said:

    Met Police announce a murder investigation following the death of 68 year old Russian Nikolai Glushkov earlier this week

    Met police vs KGB...
    It's gonna get dirty.....
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,669

    Russia seems to be acting far more recklessly to me now than it did as the USSR in Soviet times, when - even at its worst - it exhibited a basic level of geopolitical sanity.

    The US put a huge amount of pressure on the Soviet Union and both the rhetoric and the probable reality was that the US was fully prepared to launch a full nuclear strike with sufficient provocation. The knowledge of that risk tempered Moscow's actions greatly.

    By contrast, the post-Iraq US has been more internationally timid than at any point since WW2 - the low point being perhaps Obama's non-response to the chemical attacks in Syria after saying it was a red line. Putin has learned that he has much more space than Khrushchev or Brezhnev had (though not necessarily the same resources).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. Glenn, but this is only going to prolong and deepen sanctions, further harming the Russian economy.

    Mr. Royale is right. It's reckless to use a nerve agent. If the quantities had been on the high rather than low side, we could've seen hundreds of deaths in Salisbury.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,184

    FPT Elliott "Do you have a source?"

    There's a huge amount of detail buried in here:

    http://www.tidallagoonpower.com/

    These are interesting projects - the Dogger Bank wind farm will also provide around 5% of UK demand (and provide a hub to facilitate the construction of a new North Sea interconnect) - but they don't really help with the immediate gas supply problem.

    Bringing back a significant amount of gas storage would help in the shorter term (and will also have significant cost).

    Longer term, 100% renewables are just about feasible by 2050, with a few hurdles to be overcome...
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435118300485?via=ihub
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676
    edited March 16

    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

    Only if Putin actually invades a Baltic State as the Austro Hungarians invaded Serbia and this time it was the Russians doing the assassination not facing an assassination as was the case with Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

    Germany and Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were also all in alliance at that point against the British Empire, Russia, France and Italy (later joined by the USA).

    I cannot see what major powers are currently allied with Russia?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,792
    Nigelb said:

    FPT Elliott "Do you have a source?"

    There's a huge amount of detail buried in here:

    http://www.tidallagoonpower.com/

    These are interesting projects - the Dogger Bank wind farm will also provide around 5% of UK demand (and provide a hub to facilitate the construction of a new North Sea interconnect) - but they don't really help with the immediate gas supply problem.

    Bringing back a significant amount of gas storage would help in the shorter term (and will also have significant cost).

    Longer term, 100% renewables are just about feasible by 2050, with a few hurdles to be overcome...
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435118300485?via=ihub
    Decarbonising electricity generation is the easy bit. Doing the same for heating and transportation (not just cars) is a much tougher ask. The choices are electricity or hydrogen, and neither is a perfect fit for everything or indeed anything. As for aviation, battery-powered airships?
  • eekeek Posts: 1,962
    That's just republishing https://orientalreview.org/2018/03/15/the-uk-government-is-manufacturing-its-nerve-agent-case-for-action-on-russia/ on a site that has as its lead story

    Fatal Quad: Who Is Assassinating MI6 Assets On British Soil?

    I don't think I have a tin foil hat big enough for that site.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,184
    (To answer my own question, no. No one in June 1914 was taking a blind bit of notice of international manoeuvres.)
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,789

    Russia seems to be acting far more recklessly to me now than it did as the USSR in Soviet times, when - even at its worst - it exhibited a basic level of geopolitical sanity.

    USSR shipping nuclear missiles into Cuba?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. HYUFD, China's not a full-blown ally but they're the closest thing the Russians might have.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,607

    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

    Is the weather glorious?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,077
    HYUFD said:

    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

    Only if Putin actually invades a Baltic State as the Austro Hungarians invaded Serbia and this time it was the Russians doing the assassination not facing an assassination as was the case with Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

    Germany and Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were also all in alliance at that point against the British Empire, Russia, France and Italy (later joined by the USA).

    I cannot see what major powers are currently allied with Russia?
    History doesn't repeat, but often rhymes...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,789
    AndyJS said:

    Not surprised they've deselected Sir Robin Wales in Newham.

    Not surprised because .....?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,607
    Anorak said:

    Nigelb said:

    Discussion FPT on tidal barrages...
    (Which could, of course, also provide potential pumped storage)

    The Swansea and Cardiff lagoons would together provide around 2% of UK electricity demand:
    http://www.bath.ac.uk/i-see/images/PP_-_Ton_Fijen_Final_Oct_2017.pdf
    (All 6 mooted tidal projects would provide up to 9% of demand)

    It would presumably lead to longer days as the earth slows down.
    Which, if we maintain the same number of seconds per day, means more World records in athletics and more goals in football.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,792

    Mr. HYUFD, China's not a full-blown ally but they're the closest thing the Russians might have.

    I would have said Turkey. Which is a bit worrying, really.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,570

    Russia seems to be acting far more recklessly to me now than it did as the USSR in Soviet times, when - even at its worst - it exhibited a basic level of geopolitical sanity.

    With Russia under pressure economically, I think Putin feels a sense of urgency about turning the geopolitical tables that he didn't feel previously. He seems to be looking for escalation and conflict.
    It’s an astonishing way for a major state power to behave.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465
    HYUFD said:

    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

    Only if Putin actually invades a Baltic State as the Austro Hungarians invaded Serbia and this time it was the Russians doing the assassination not facing an assassination as was the case with Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

    Germany and Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were also all in alliance at that point against the British Empire, Russia, France and Italy (later joined by the USA).

    I cannot see what major powers are currently allied with Russia?
    I can never quite gauge where Sino-Russian relations fit in with Putin's thinking. Is he acting tough with the West to stop the big dragon in the East from getting any ideas?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676
    edited March 16

    Mr. HYUFD, China's not a full-blown ally but they're the closest thing the Russians might have.

    China is not going to go to war with the West over the Balkans, unless it is an issue in the Far East and South China Sea, China has no interest either way in terms of getting involved militarily
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,570

    Russia seems to be acting far more recklessly to me now than it did as the USSR in Soviet times, when - even at its worst - it exhibited a basic level of geopolitical sanity.

    The US put a huge amount of pressure on the Soviet Union and both the rhetoric and the probable reality was that the US was fully prepared to launch a full nuclear strike with sufficient provocation. The knowledge of that risk tempered Moscow's actions greatly.

    By contrast, the post-Iraq US has been more internationally timid than at any point since WW2 - the low point being perhaps Obama's non-response to the chemical attacks in Syria after saying it was a red line. Putin has learned that he has much more space than Khrushchev or Brezhnev had (though not necessarily the same resources).
    Both Obama and Trump were/are poor Presidents, internationally, for different reasons.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. Rentool, possibly, but there's a strategic disagreement there. The Kremlin likes Assad. Erdogan does not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678

    Russia seems to be acting far more recklessly to me now than it did as the USSR in Soviet times, when - even at its worst - it exhibited a basic level of geopolitical sanity.

    With Russia under pressure economically, I think Putin feels a sense of urgency about turning the geopolitical tables that he didn't feel previously. He seems to be looking for escalation and conflict.
    He does, and for all we don't like to give people what they want, given his love of and need to provoke is pretty well established, it is hard not to get drawn into his game that way. Given our own troubles it is not as though we are looking for escalation because we want it (there's the blowback cost, for one, plus our stretched resources, plus that our government does not have an election coming up which they would love an opportunity to posture before, nor will Labour go easy on the government domestically despite this), so the idea we are super keen to escalate is frankly bizarre, often based on ridiculous ideas that people pine for the 'simplicity' of the cold war or unjustified accusations of anti-russian xenophobia (why them about all others?), but when the Russians are willing to throw muscle around, and/or engage in this type of thing (whether they did so here, they have done it before), it's hard not to escalate as they want.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 1,973
    No great power has an interest in Russia trying to top people off - with chemical agents - outside its borders.

    China won’t want to get involved because there is no particular value to their doing so - but they will not support Russia if push comes to shove, and nor are they a Russian ally particularly. Broadly, China gains from a well-behaved international system.

    No, Russia is on its own, perhaps with the support of various dodgy dealers in Asia Minor or the Arabian Peninsula.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,050

    Mr. HYUFD, China's not a full-blown ally but they're the closest thing the Russians might have.

    I would have said Turkey. Which is a bit worrying, really.
    I wouldn't say so, they're on different sides in Syria - though there are at least 5 or 6 'sides' in that conflict. It is now a 7 year war :(
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

    Only if Putin actually invades a Baltic State as the Austro Hungarians invaded Serbia and this time it was the Russians doing the assassination not facing an assassination as was the case with Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

    Germany and Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were also all in alliance at that point against the British Empire, Russia, France and Italy (later joined by the USA).

    I cannot see what major powers are currently allied with Russia?
    I can never quite gauge where Sino-Russian relations fit in with Putin's thinking. Is he acting tough with the West to stop the big dragon in the East from getting any ideas?
    Not sure what threat China really poses to Russia? It is not really a Russia ally but nor is it a Russian for.

    India is more concerned by China over Nepal
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,476
    edited March 16
    While we have putin murdering difficult people, the Chinese take a slightly different approach...

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-16/china-hackers-hit-u-s-firms-linked-to-sea-dispute-fireeye-says
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,860
    This is an interesting read about Russia's spying activities around San Francisco.

    http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/14/the-secret-history-of-the-russian-consulate-in-san-francisco-putin-trump-spies-moscow/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,184
    edited March 16

    Nigelb said:

    FPT Elliott "Do you have a source?"

    There's a huge amount of detail buried in here:

    http://www.tidallagoonpower.com/

    These are interesting projects - the Dogger Bank wind farm will also provide around 5% of UK demand (and provide a hub to facilitate the construction of a new North Sea interconnect) - but they don't really help with the immediate gas supply problem.

    Bringing back a significant amount of gas storage would help in the shorter term (and will also have significant cost).

    Longer term, 100% renewables are just about feasible by 2050, with a few hurdles to be overcome...
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435118300485?via=ihub
    Decarbonising electricity generation is the easy bit. Doing the same for heating and transportation (not just cars) is a much tougher ask. The choices are electricity or hydrogen, and neither is a perfect fit for everything or indeed anything. As for aviation, battery-powered airships?
    Indeed, but that again is going to be a multi decade project.
    Air sourced heat pumps (air conditioning in reverse) are a pretty efficient way of providing heating (they supply around 3x the energy in the form of heat that they consume in electricity). Together with transport, there is, of course, likely to be a significant increase in total electric demand.

    The good news is that once the infrastructure is in place, it will be comparatively cheap to run... and government can borrow very cheaply right now.

    (And don't laugh about electric aircraft...they will just take a bit longer.
    https://www.theengineer.co.uk/darpa-flies-scaled-down-electric-model-of-vtol-aircraft/ )
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 822

    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 157
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

    Only if Putin actually invades a Baltic State as the Austro Hungarians invaded Serbia and this time it was the Russians doing the assassination not facing an assassination as was the case with Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

    Germany and Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were also all in alliance at that point against the British Empire, Russia, France and Italy (later joined by the USA).

    I cannot see what major powers are currently allied with Russia?
    I can never quite gauge where Sino-Russian relations fit in with Putin's thinking. Is he acting tough with the West to stop the big dragon in the East from getting any ideas?
    Not sure what threat China really poses to Russia? It is not really a Russia ally but nor is it a Russian for.

    India is more concerned by China over Nepal

    The Chinese are currently buying up land in Siberia, which is getting the local government rather nervous. There has been theories circling around the Russian Foreign Office about a "what if" scenario, in which China needs more energy to meet its demands - so grabs land in Siberia.

    Plus, the European Union is China's biggest export market. Beijing will not want Russia upsetting their buyers, especially Western Europe.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. 09, remind me, is that a Stalinist or Trotskyite victory?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676
    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    As Labour hold every council seat on Newham council that should mean Momentum get to pick the next council leader after May's elections
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676
    Daniel said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

    Only if Putin actually invades a Baltic State as the Austro Hungarians invaded Serbia and this time it was the Russians doing the assassination not facing an assassination as was the case with Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

    Germany and Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were also all in alliance at that point against the British Empire, Russia, France and Italy (later joined by the USA).

    I cannot see what major powers are currently allied with Russia?
    I can never quite gauge where Sino-Russian relations fit in with Putin's thinking. Is he acting tough with the West to stop the big dragon in the East from getting any ideas?
    Not sure what threat China really poses to Russia? It is not really a Russia ally but nor is it a Russian for.

    India is more concerned by China over Nepal

    The Chinese are currently buying up land in Siberia, which is getting the local government rather nervous. There has been theories circling around the Russian Foreign Office about a "what if" scenario, in which China needs more energy to meet its demands - so grabs land in Siberia.

    Plus, the European Union is China's biggest export market. Beijing will not want Russia upsetting their buyers, especially Western Europe.
    So Putin is definitely on his own then
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 1,973
    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,476
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/16/how-to-curb-putin-russian-kleptocrats-salisbury-dirty-money

    Interesting take from Margaret hodge, if we didn’t allow any rich Russians here, putin wouldn’t be murdering anybody on our soil. Not sure how the fact that the bloke who got topped spied for us and wasn’t part of the kleptocracy works with that theory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,476
    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    As Labour hold every council seat on Newham council that should mean Momentum get to pick the next council leader after May's elections
    The Poor people of newham going to have to experience loony left.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676

    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    As Labour hold every council seat on Newham council that should mean Momentum get to pick the next council leader after May's elections
    The Poor people of newham going to have to experience loony left.
    The Momentum parasite is starting to eat its host, Newham is just the appetiser
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 157
    HYUFD said:



    So Putin is definitely on his own then


    Putin is a puppet. His inner circle do not believe he is that popular in Russia anymore; he is on borrowed time. The oppositions calls to boycott the election on Sunday is gaining ground and the Kremlin is playing the patriotic card to encourage to come out and vote.

    Is turnout is not fairly decent, the elite will start asking questions about him.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,607
    Zero hedge is the view from Russia rather than the view from the US.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
    Newham is something like 70% non-white and so it was inevitable that a muslim mayor would be installed sooner or later. Let's hope it resists the slide into Tower Hamlets-ism. In the most ethnic minority dominated London neighbourhoods it is incredible how many posh white Labour councillors remain in place, largely because of different ethnic minority candidates being played off against each other. Sheer weight of numbers and Corbynisation means their days are now numbered though.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,339
    @paulwaugh: Exclusive: Brexit 'could be delayed' to get better deal for UK, MPs set to urge. Brexiteers on the cttee so furious… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/974694092788654081
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,676
    Daniel said:

    HYUFD said:



    So Putin is definitely on his own then


    Putin is a puppet. His inner circle do not believe he is that popular in Russia anymore; he is on borrowed time. The oppositions calls to boycott the election on Sunday is gaining ground and the Kremlin is playing the patriotic card to encourage to come out and vote.

    Is turnout is not fairly decent, the elite will start asking questions about him.
    Not that billionaire oligarchs are any more popular than Putin in Russia, in fact probably less so the more westernised and liberal they are
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572
    Daniel said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder whether this is what June 1914 felt like:

    Only if Putin actually invades a Baltic State as the Austro Hungarians invaded Serbia and this time it was the Russians doing the assassination not facing an assassination as was the case with Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

    Germany and Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were also all in alliance at that point against the British Empire, Russia, France and Italy (later joined by the USA).

    I cannot see what major powers are currently allied with Russia?
    I can never quite gauge where Sino-Russian relations fit in with Putin's thinking. Is he acting tough with the West to stop the big dragon in the East from getting any ideas?
    Not sure what threat China really poses to Russia? It is not really a Russia ally but nor is it a Russian for.

    India is more concerned by China over Nepal

    The Chinese are currently buying up land in Siberia, which is getting the local government rather nervous. There has been theories circling around the Russian Foreign Office about a "what if" scenario, in which China needs more energy to meet its demands - so grabs land in Siberia.

    Plus, the European Union is China's biggest export market. Beijing will not want Russia upsetting their buyers, especially Western Europe.
    The vast population disparity also makes the Russians very nervous. More than 100 million Chinese live fairly close to the Russian border. On the Russian side the population is sparse and shrinking. Vast quantities of natural resources for consumption in north east China such as timber are already routinely obtained from Russia.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,570
    Daniel said:

    HYUFD said:



    So Putin is definitely on his own then


    Putin is a puppet. His inner circle do not believe he is that popular in Russia anymore; he is on borrowed time. The oppositions calls to boycott the election on Sunday is gaining ground and the Kremlin is playing the patriotic card to encourage to come out and vote.

    Is turnout is not fairly decent, the elite will start asking questions about him.
    If Putin is the puppet, who’s the puppeteer?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 358
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT Elliott "Do you have a source?"

    There's a huge amount of detail buried in here:

    http://www.tidallagoonpower.com/

    These are interesting projects - the Dogger Bank wind farm will also provide around 5% of UK demand (and provide a hub to facilitate the construction of a new North Sea interconnect) - but they don't really help with the immediate gas supply problem.

    Bringing back a significant amount of gas storage would help in the shorter term (and will also have significant cost).

    Longer term, 100% renewables are just about feasible by 2050, with a few hurdles to be overcome...
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435118300485?via=ihub
    Decarbonising electricity generation is the easy bit. Doing the same for heating and transportation (not just cars) is a much tougher ask. The choices are electricity or hydrogen, and neither is a perfect fit for everything or indeed anything. As for aviation, battery-powered airships?
    Indeed, but that again is going to be a multi decade project.
    Air sourced heat pumps (air conditioning in reverse) are a pretty efficient way of providing heating (they supply around 3x the energy in the form of heat that they consume in electricity). Together with transport, there is, of course, likely to be a significant increase in total electric demand.

    The good news is that once the infrastructure is in place, it will be comparatively cheap to run... and government can borrow very cheaply right now.

    (And don't laugh about electric aircraft...they will just take a bit longer.
    https://www.theengineer.co.uk/darpa-flies-scaled-down-electric-model-of-vtol-aircraft/ )
    at temperatures below around 8°C (17°F) an air-source heat pump can achieve a COP of 2.5 – below the magic 3 level at which carbon savings are realized.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,476
    edited March 16
    rcs1000 said:

    Zero hedge is the view from Russia rather than the view from the US.
    File under Russian sock puppet...

    Former Zero Hedge writer Colin Lokey said that he was pressured to frame issues in a way he felt was "disingenuous," summarizing its political stances as "Russia=good. Obama=idiot. Bashar al-Assad=benevolent leader. John Kerry=dunce. Vladimir Putin=greatest leader in the history of statecraft."

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,465

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
    But it couldn't really have come in a worse week.

    There will be a lot of Labour centrists this weekend having a long, hard think whether they should stand up for one last effort - or acquiesce in the take-over of Labour by a faction that is seeing the party slide towards ridicule.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,262
    Daniel said:

    HYUFD said:



    So Putin is definitely on his own then


    Putin is a puppet. His inner circle do not believe he is that popular in Russia anymore; he is on borrowed time. The oppositions calls to boycott the election on Sunday is gaining ground and the Kremlin is playing the patriotic card to encourage to come out and vote.

    Is turnout is not fairly decent, the elite will start asking questions about him.
    So who are the puppetmasters? My impression was he'd done a good job of cutting serious rivals off at the knees.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,631

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
    Perhaps they've just realised he's Scottish
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,476
    edited March 16

    Daniel said:

    HYUFD said:



    So Putin is definitely on his own then


    Putin is a puppet. His inner circle do not believe he is that popular in Russia anymore; he is on borrowed time. The oppositions calls to boycott the election on Sunday is gaining ground and the Kremlin is playing the patriotic card to encourage to come out and vote.

    Is turnout is not fairly decent, the elite will start asking questions about him.
    If Putin is the puppet, who’s the puppeteer?
    For once I dont think the Jews are going to get the blame for this one.....although it could be a double bluff...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,607

    Daniel said:

    HYUFD said:



    So Putin is definitely on his own then


    Putin is a puppet. His inner circle do not believe he is that popular in Russia anymore; he is on borrowed time. The oppositions calls to boycott the election on Sunday is gaining ground and the Kremlin is playing the patriotic card to encourage to come out and vote.

    Is turnout is not fairly decent, the elite will start asking questions about him.
    If Putin is the puppet, who’s the puppeteer?
    Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,900
    Mr. 1000, Corbyn wasn't taking Putin's line, Putin was taking Corbyn's!

    *gasp!*
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 718


    For once I dont think the Jews are going to get the blame for this one.....although it could be a double bluff...

    I'm sure Galloway/Livingstone and their fellow travellers will find a way.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,859
    Scott_P said:
    Isn't it called a transition agreement?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,077

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
    But it couldn't really have come in a worse week.

    There will be a lot of Labour centrists this weekend having a long, hard think whether they should stand up for one last effort - or acquiesce in the take-over of Labour by a faction that is seeing the party slide towards ridicule.
    Time to resign the Whip and sit as independent Labour.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,195
    rcs1000 said:

    Daniel said:

    HYUFD said:



    So Putin is definitely on his own then


    Putin is a puppet. His inner circle do not believe he is that popular in Russia anymore; he is on borrowed time. The oppositions calls to boycott the election on Sunday is gaining ground and the Kremlin is playing the patriotic card to encourage to come out and vote.

    Is turnout is not fairly decent, the elite will start asking questions about him.
    If Putin is the puppet, who’s the puppeteer?
    Jeremy Corbyn.
    I have the slight suspicion that Jezza's hand rummaging around Putin's rectum might well attract the attention of various anti gay laws in Russia.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,403
    Scott_P said:
    It's back to the 1930s when a lot of British intellectuals visited the Soviet Union and declared it to be the closest thing to paradise on earth.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,339
    mandy rhodes - @holyroodmandy: Scottish Police Authority (SPA) board member Dr Nicola Marchant has resigned from the board. How many more? Good governance is vital.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,675
    edited March 16
    sarissa said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT Elliott "Do you have a source?"

    There's a huge amount of detail buried in here:

    http://www.tidallagoonpower.com/

    These are interesting projects - the Dogger Bank wind farm will also provide around 5% of UK demand (and provide a hub to facilitate the construction of a new North Sea interconnect) - but they don't really help with the immediate gas supply problem.

    Bringing back a significant amount of gas storage would help in the shorter term (and will also have significant cost).

    Longer term, 100% renewables are just about feasible by 2050, with a few hurdles to be overcome...
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435118300485?via=ihub
    Decarbonising electricity generation is the easy bit. Doing the same for heating and transportation (not just cars) is a much tougher ask. The choices are electricity or hydrogen, and neither is a perfect fit for everything or indeed anything. As for aviation, battery-powered airships?
    Indeed, but that again is going to be a multi decade project.
    Air sourced heat pumps (air conditioning in reverse) are a pretty efficient way of providing heating (they supply around 3x the energy in the form of heat that they consume in electricity). Together with transport, there is, of course, likely to be a significant increase in total electric demand.

    The good news is that once the infrastructure is in place, it will be comparatively cheap to run... and government can borrow very cheaply right now.

    (And don't laugh about electric aircraft...they will just take a bit longer.
    https://www.theengineer.co.uk/darpa-flies-scaled-down-electric-model-of-vtol-aircraft/ )
    at temperatures below around 8°C (17°F) an air-source heat pump can achieve a COP of 2.5 – below the magic 3 level at which carbon savings are realized.

    ??? Surely the carbon savings largely depend on how the electricity is generated?

    We had the choice of oil or air-source heat-pump heating when we bought and modernised an old house 8 years ago - very glad we took the latter option, works wonderfully well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,678

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
    But it couldn't really have come in a worse week.

    There will be a lot of Labour centrists this weekend having a long, hard think whether they should stand up for one last effort - or acquiesce in the take-over of Labour by a faction that is seeing the party slide towards ridicule.
    Time to resign the Whip and sit as independent Labour.
    Never going to happen. Why would it? On domestic issues they seem pretty united now, at least compared to recent years, and resigned to Corbyn's leadership, are they really so exercised by foreign affairs that that will finally push them over the edge?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 718
    edited March 16
    RobD said:


    Isn't it called a transition agreement?

    They're looking to replace the transition with a retraction of Article 50. Formally the idea is we can carry on negotiations without the time pressures, which in isolation makes sense (there's not a chance everything will be wrapped up by 2020, or even 2022). That assumes everyone has honest intentions.......

    Of course, the real intent is to play for time until a scenario arises where a 2nd referendum can be called - perhaps under Corbyn's successor.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 975
    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
    But it couldn't really have come in a worse week.

    There will be a lot of Labour centrists this weekend having a long, hard think whether they should stand up for one last effort - or acquiesce in the take-over of Labour by a faction that is seeing the party slide towards ridicule.
    Time to resign the Whip and sit as independent Labour.
    Never going to happen. Why would it? On domestic issues they seem pretty united now, at least compared to recent years, and resigned to Corbyn's leadership, are they really so exercised by foreign affairs that that will finally push them over the edge?
    That all depends on whether they think universal human rights are a bedrock of progress or something to be ignored for short term partisan advantage.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,184
    Elliot said:

    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
    But it couldn't really have come in a worse week.

    There will be a lot of Labour centrists this weekend having a long, hard think whether they should stand up for one last effort - or acquiesce in the take-over of Labour by a faction that is seeing the party slide towards ridicule.
    Time to resign the Whip and sit as independent Labour.
    Never going to happen. Why would it? On domestic issues they seem pretty united now, at least compared to recent years, and resigned to Corbyn's leadership, are they really so exercised by foreign affairs that that will finally push them over the edge?
    That all depends on whether they think universal human rights are a bedrock of progress or something to be ignored for short term partisan advantage.
    Oddly, the people who are keenest on this line were only too happy to shelter behind xenophobic lies for short term partisan advantage.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,262
    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
    But it couldn't really have come in a worse week.

    There will be a lot of Labour centrists this weekend having a long, hard think whether they should stand up for one last effort - or acquiesce in the take-over of Labour by a faction that is seeing the party slide towards ridicule.
    Time to resign the Whip and sit as independent Labour.
    Never going to happen. Why would it? On domestic issues they seem pretty united now, at least compared to recent years, and resigned to Corbyn's leadership, are they really so exercised by foreign affairs that that will finally push them over the edge?
    Foreign affairs are no longer foreign affairs when they happen in Salisbury.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 975

    rcs1000 said:

    Zero hedge is the view from Russia rather than the view from the US.
    File under Russian sock puppet...

    Former Zero Hedge writer Colin Lokey said that he was pressured to frame issues in a way he felt was "disingenuous," summarizing its political stances as "Russia=good. Obama=idiot. Bashar al-Assad=benevolent leader. John Kerry=dunce. Vladimir Putin=greatest leader in the history of statecraft."

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge
    Is anyone surprised?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 975

    Elliot said:

    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
    But it couldn't really have come in a worse week.

    There will be a lot of Labour centrists this weekend having a long, hard think whether they should stand up for one last effort - or acquiesce in the take-over of Labour by a faction that is seeing the party slide towards ridicule.
    Time to resign the Whip and sit as independent Labour.
    Never going to happen. Why would it? On domestic issues they seem pretty united now, at least compared to recent years, and resigned to Corbyn's leadership, are they really so exercised by foreign affairs that that will finally push them over the edge?
    That all depends on whether they think universal human rights are a bedrock of progress or something to be ignored for short term partisan advantage.
    Oddly, the people who are keenest on this line were only too happy to shelter behind xenophobic lies for short term partisan advantage.
    I'm not sure I follow.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,077
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
    But it couldn't really have come in a worse week.

    There will be a lot of Labour centrists this weekend having a long, hard think whether they should stand up for one last effort - or acquiesce in the take-over of Labour by a faction that is seeing the party slide towards ridicule.
    Time to resign the Whip and sit as independent Labour.
    Never going to happen. Why would it? On domestic issues they seem pretty united now, at least compared to recent years, and resigned to Corbyn's leadership, are they really so exercised by foreign affairs that that will finally push them over the edge?
    Foreign affairs are no longer foreign affairs when they happen in Salisbury.
    This week has demonstrated that when there is a major threat to national security, a PM Corbyn would side with those he has always supported. In this case Russia.

    It is beyond me why he is so in favour of Russia, which is essentially returning to a Czarist state just without the hereditary bit (unless Putin has kids?).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,184
    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
    But it couldn't really have come in a worse week.

    There will be a lot of Labour centrists this weekend having a long, hard think whether they should stand up for one last effort - or acquiesce in the take-over of Labour by a faction that is seeing the party slide towards ridicule.
    Time to resign the Whip and sit as independent Labour.
    Never going to happen. Why would it? On domestic issues they seem pretty united now, at least compared to recent years, and resigned to Corbyn's leadership, are they really so exercised by foreign affairs that that will finally push them over the edge?
    That all depends on whether they think universal human rights are a bedrock of progress or something to be ignored for short term partisan advantage.
    Oddly, the people who are keenest on this line were only too happy to shelter behind xenophobic lies for short term partisan advantage.
    I'm not sure I follow.
    Short term partisan advantage can lead people of all political stripes to do some pretty disgusting things. Acknowledging that might at least lead some to recognise that climbing on a high horse about opponents' perceived failings is not very edifying.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 975
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Daniel said:

    HYUFD said:



    So Putin is definitely on his own then


    Putin is a puppet. His inner circle do not believe he is that popular in Russia anymore; he is on borrowed time. The oppositions calls to boycott the election on Sunday is gaining ground and the Kremlin is playing the patriotic card to encourage to come out and vote.

    Is turnout is not fairly decent, the elite will start asking questions about him.
    So who are the puppetmasters? My impression was he'd done a good job of cutting serious rivals off at the knees.
    Or in the back of the head.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Boris_Nemtsov
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 975

    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:


    Simon Harris
    ‏Verified account @simonharrisitv
    2h2 hours ago

    BREAKING: Internal Labour Party coup ousts veteran council leader Sir Robin Wales after 23 years in charge of Newham, east London. @itvlondon

    Is this news? Only if you think Momentum and other far-left loons are behind it, which - see upthread - they seem not to be.

    Perhaps people got fed up with him. Twenty-three years is a good innings.
    But it couldn't really have come in a worse week.

    There will be a lot of Labour centrists this weekend having a long, hard think whether they should stand up for one last effort - or acquiesce in the take-over of Labour by a faction that is seeing the party slide towards ridicule.
    Time to resign the Whip and sit as independent Labour.
    Never going to happen. Why would it? On domestic issues they seem pretty united now, at least compared to recent years, and resigned to Corbyn's leadership, are they really so exercised by foreign affairs that that will finally push them over the edge?
    That all depends on whether they think universal human rights are a bedrock of progress or something to be ignored for short term partisan advantage.
    Oddly, the people who are keenest on this line were only too happy to shelter behind xenophobic lies for short term partisan advantage.
    I'm not sure I follow.
    Short term partisan advantage can lead people of all political stripes to do some pretty disgusting things. Acknowledging that might at least lead some to recognise that climbing on a high horse about opponents' perceived failings is not very edifying.
    Yes, it can. And then there are people of all political stripes who hold true to their principles, changing their vote if their own party abandons them.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,938
    Scott_P said:
    This is just die-hard Remainers wanting to delay Brexit, in the hope that something comes up that gives them the excuse to halt it.

    They can shove it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,570
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is just die-hard Remainers wanting to delay Brexit, in the hope that something comes up that gives them the excuse to halt it.

    They can shove it.
    The journalism in that article is also pretty shoddy. There is no question of a GDP “drop” of over 7% by 2030. There is a question that GDP growth might be slower leading to an economy being 7% smaller by 2030 than it otherwise might have been - although even that relies on all sorts of assumptions, some of which are pessimistic.

    But, most journalists are slow, sloppy and lazy, so no surprises there.
This discussion has been closed.