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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos-MORI polling finds voters have become more positive

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 26 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos-MORI polling finds voters have become more positive about immigration since Referendum

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 27,669
    First! Like Mrs May....
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 957
    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,470
    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    And then use some kind of system to denote those immigrants who are low skilled, a badge or something.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 27,669
    I wonder to what extent 'reduced immigration' is priced into the Brexit result and this shift reflects expectations of that, rather than a fundamentally different view of immigrants?

    OT - a follow on from Mr Meeks thread on automation and the challenges it may bring:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-war-on-ordinary-people?via=twitter_page
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 957
    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    And then use some kind of system to denote those immigrants who are low skilled, a badge or something.
    What a stupid thing to say.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,273
    I wonder if it's down to a reasonably coherent, positive case for immigration being made for the first time, and sympathetic coverage of long term residents being possibly asked to leave?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    I have to say although corbyn might be the left wing trump, one thing I don’t think we will see is a porn star claiming he hired her services.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,145
    Immigration is not just about numbers, it is about control.

    The perception is that New Labour didn't just increase immigration, it lost track of who it was letting in and who was overstaying.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,103
    edited March 26
    Canada and Italy join the expulsions. Sky saying this is a real crisis for Putin as he did not expect such unity across the west
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,219
    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    And then use some kind of system to denote those immigrants who are low skilled, a badge or something.
    I'm sure Jeremy Corby would be happy to suggest a design.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,219

    Canada and Italy join the expulsions. Sky saying this is a real crisis for Putin as he did not expect such unity across the west

    Italy a big surprise - May has played a blinder!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,451

    Canada and Italy join the expulsions. Sky saying this is a real crisis for Putin as he did not expect such unity across the west

    #despiteBoris
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,934
    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    And then use some kind of system to denote those immigrants who are low skilled, a badge or something.
    I'm getting worried for you Topping,leave the EU seems to be sending you off the scale.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,714
    edited March 26
    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    Just because someone isn't coming on the skills-based migration route doesn't necessarily mean they are low-skilled themselves - as I understand it this simply will not even be assessed for various spousal/family migration routes, for example, nor for whether an asylum claim would be accepted. (Does this not lead to consternation for people with highly-skilled spouses who would be self-supporting, but nevertheless are assessed on the basis of their UK-based partner's earnings? I'm not an expert but this is my recollection.)

    Also some labour shortage areas e.g. basic health and social care are not what we would conventionally call "high" skilled. What about nannies/domestic service? I am not sure that trying to split everything into a high/low skills-based dichotomy is useful.

    But I'm nitpicking. I think your basic point that the migration targets should be deaggregated is a solid one, and would have avoided a lot of the nonsense over student visas for example.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,775
    edited March 26

    Canada and Italy join the expulsions. Sky saying this is a real crisis for Putin as he did not expect such unity across the west

    As I said on the previous thread:

    Not a good couple of days for Labour or Putin.

    A large chunk of the western world appears to agree with the assessment of the evidence that Russia is the only plausible culprit in Salisbury.

    It is gratifying that the use of chemical weapons garners a wide reaction. I suspect Putin is somewhat eyebrows raised and taken aback by the breadth of the action against Russia. The argument that he needs to be inserted in his box in a peaceful way is strong. I guess this is a first step.

    This is an unhelpful development for Jeremy who is finding all his utterances over this contradicted by the Nations' allies from all over.

    Combined with the outrageous insinuation by Jews that he may be Racist, I mean, how unimaginable that a member if the Labour party could be accused of Racism!

    There is a lot of pretty accurate shovelling into the fan and the output isn't spreading, it's focussing on poor persecuted kind and honest Jezza
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,103

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    And then use some kind of system to denote those immigrants who are low skilled, a badge or something.
    I'm getting worried for you Topping,leave the EU seems to be sending you off the scale.
    I cannot believe anyone could make such an unacceptable statement, especially in the current crisis engulfing labour
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,395
    They should get FIFA to join in.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,700
    edited March 26
    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    You could as easily argue that the other way, and say that skilled immigrants are taking tradesmen's jobs, that foreign doctors reduce native [many non-white btw] kids' prospects, but that no-one cares about unskilled fruit-pickers and car-washers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,138
    A combination of some Remain voters having increased sympathy for immigrants and some Leave voters trying to persuade themselves the vote wasn't an anti-immigrant vote.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,714
    edited March 26
    I know this was already pointed on the previous thread, but Valerie Vaz's "steeped in anti-Semitism"/"we must make sure we continue to show people we are an anti-Semitic party” Westminster Hour clip is one of the most hilarious things I've heard for ages. I feel a lot of sympathy for the mis-speak - I mangle my words all the time, and am thankful for the presence of an edit button on here and the lack of people recording my spoken words in real life - but that doesn't mitigate the fact it is really very funny. I think what does it is her earnestness and "soft touch"/sympathetic voice - given her own anti-racism credentials she was in theory an absolutely solid choice of spokesperson on a difficult issue, yet the brain-fade has left it going all so wrong.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,934

    Immigration is not just about numbers, it is about control.

    The perception is that New Labour didn't just increase immigration, it lost track of who it was letting in and who was overstaying.

    +1
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,395
    The EU commisariate stands out on a limb.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 957

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    You could as easily argue that the other way, and say that skilled immigrants are taking tradesmen's jobs, that foreign doctors reduce native [many non-white btw] kids' prospects, but that no-one cares about unskilled fruit-pickers and car-washers.
    Most of the polling and economic analyses suggests the opposite. I don't think many people opppose letting in foreign doctors (providing they speak English!)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,798

    A combination of some Remain voters having increased sympathy for immigrants and some Leave voters trying to persuade themselves the vote wasn't an anti-immigrant vote.

    I think there's something else going on. Many people have been forced to have the "I don't mean you!" conversation because of Brexit.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,766

    I wonder if it's down to a reasonably coherent, positive case for immigration being made for the first time, and sympathetic coverage of long term residents being possibly asked to leave?

    Yes, I think that’s it too.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,833
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Bit sleepy, and clumsily discovered it's possible to put My Documents in the recycling bin.

    Was quite relieved to also discover they can be retrieved.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 957

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    Just because someone isn't coming on the skills-based migration route doesn't necessarily mean they are low-skilled themselves - as I understand it this simply will not even be assessed for various spousal/family migration routes, for example, nor for whether an asylum claim would be accepted. (Does this not lead to consternation for people with highly-skilled spouses who would be self-supporting, but nevertheless are assessed on the basis of their UK-based partner's earnings? I'm not an expert but this is my recollection.)

    Also some labour shortage areas e.g. basic health and social care are not what we would conventionally call "high" skilled. What about nannies/domestic service? I am not sure that trying to split everything into a high/low skills-based dichotomy is useful.

    But I'm nitpicking. I think your basic point that the migration targets should be deaggregated is a solid one, and would have avoided a lot of the nonsense over student visas for example.
    I agree with your first point. High skilled family migrants should be classed as high skilled. If only for academic reasons we should at least record the data. We could also assess how many go into high skilled work.

    Non-medical care work and domestic service seem like things highly suitable for training young Britih people into.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,470

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    And then use some kind of system to denote those immigrants who are low skilled, a badge or something.
    I'm getting worried for you Topping,leave the EU seems to be sending you off the scale.
    People apparently like high skilled immigrants and don't like low skilled immigrants. How are the poor people of the UK to know whether, given a random immigrant, they should like or dislike them?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 957
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    And then use some kind of system to denote those immigrants who are low skilled, a badge or something.
    I'm getting worried for you Topping,leave the EU seems to be sending you off the scale.
    People apparently like high skilled immigrants and don't like low skilled immigrants. How are the poor people of the UK to know whether, given a random immigrant, they should like or dislike them?
    You are again falling into the trap of equating the overall scale of something with dislike of the individuals involved. Just because I think we need to stop recruiting middle managers at my workplace does not mean I dislike the individuals doing the job.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,798
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    And then use some kind of system to denote those immigrants who are low skilled, a badge or something.
    I'm getting worried for you Topping,leave the EU seems to be sending you off the scale.
    People apparently like high skilled immigrants and don't like low skilled immigrants. How are the poor people of the UK to know whether, given a random immigrant, they should like or dislike them?
    Presumably the immigration rules of the House of Elliot are reciprocal - the low-skilled get grounded, while the high-skilled are free to go.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,299

    Canada and Italy join the expulsions. Sky saying this is a real crisis for Putin as he did not expect such unity across the west

    Good. Leaders around the world need to know that the use of NBC weapons will lead to consequences. It seems 'we' may finally be reacting well to such usage.

    It's a shame we didn't react after Halabja or Ghouta, but hopefully a precedent for action has been made.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 957

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    And then use some kind of system to denote those immigrants who are low skilled, a badge or something.
    I'm getting worried for you Topping,leave the EU seems to be sending you off the scale.
    People apparently like high skilled immigrants and don't like low skilled immigrants. How are the poor people of the UK to know whether, given a random immigrant, they should like or dislike them?
    Presumably the immigration rules of the House of Elliot are reciprocal - the low-skilled get grounded, while the high-skilled are free to go.
    Yes, I think it's perfectly reasonable countries like Australia allow greater access to the high skilled than the low skilled.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,371
    edited March 26
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,238
    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    And then use some kind of system to denote those immigrants who are low skilled, a badge or something.
    I'm getting worried for you Topping,leave the EU seems to be sending you off the scale.
    People apparently like high skilled immigrants and don't like low skilled immigrants. How are the poor people of the UK to know whether, given a random immigrant, they should like or dislike them?
    You are again falling into the trap of equating the overall scale of something with dislike of the individuals involved. Just because I think we need to stop recruiting middle managers at my workplace does not mean I dislike the individuals doing the job.
    And if you on an overcrowded bus you would prefer that no one else got on, and this is not because of an irrational dislike of the sort of people who are not currently on the bus. It is mystifying how hard this point is for otherwise apparently intelligent people to grasp.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    You could as easily argue that the other way, and say that skilled immigrants are taking tradesmen's jobs, that foreign doctors reduce native [many non-white btw] kids' prospects, but that no-one cares about unskilled fruit-pickers and car-washers.
    And that is certainly how the average American tends to view things, hence the draconian visa process for professionals whilst they turn a blind eye to millions upon millions of illegal Mexican gardeners and hotel maids.

    Thinking about it, it's pretty insane to actively encourage immigrants to take our best jobs whilst keeping them out of the dirtiest crappiest lowest paid ones that nobody wants to do.

    All this is hot air anyway as there isn't much chance of meaningful barriers being put up to stop Europeans who want to work here. Best we can hope for is keeping the beggars and criminals out - I'd certainly settle for that.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 871

    Canada and Italy join the expulsions. Sky saying this is a real crisis for Putin as he did not expect such unity across the west

    Good. Leaders around the world need to know that the use of NBC weapons will lead to consequences. It seems 'we' may finally be reacting well to such usage.

    It's a shame we didn't react after Halabja or Ghouta, but hopefully a precedent for action has been made.
    Quite. How will Russia respond? If it tries to go tit for tat, that's a lot of expulsions coming up.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,934
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    And then use some kind of system to denote those immigrants who are low skilled, a badge or something.
    I'm getting worried for you Topping,leave the EU seems to be sending you off the scale.
    People apparently like high skilled immigrants and don't like low skilled immigrants. How are the poor people of the UK to know whether, given a random immigrant, they should like or dislike them?
    Can I ask what would your immigration policy be ? Open border to all ?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,004
    felix said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    And then use some kind of system to denote those immigrants who are low skilled, a badge or something.
    I'm sure Jeremy Corby would be happy to suggest a design.
    He supports Arsenal, that will be enough for many.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,451
    AndyJS said:
    Bad day for Boris bashers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,833
    Really surprised to hear of the breadth of expulsions. Must admit, I'm a bit surprised any other countries are doing it, but great to see that they are.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,833
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), a bad day to be in the overlap of a Venn diagram representing anti-Semitic and pro-Putin types.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 330

    Really surprised to hear of the breadth of expulsions. Must admit, I'm a bit surprised any other countries are doing it, but great to see that they are.

    It's also good excuse for a clearout.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145
    What is it with the Republican party's desire to troll the electorate ?

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/03/26/west-virginia-senate-don-blankenship-2018-217703
    Don Blankenship went to prison after the deaths of 29 of his miners. For some Republicans, that’s the beginning of a successful Senate campaign....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,138
    Britain’s immigrants are already in aggregate a high-skilled group.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,833
    This graphic might be of interest given the gambling and polling interest here:
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,395
    E pluribus unum
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,714
    Elliot said:


    I agree with your first point. High skilled family migrants should be classed as high skilled. If only for academic reasons we should at least record the data. We could also assess how many go into high skilled work.

    Non-medical care work and domestic service seem like things highly suitable for training young Britih people into.

    As an alternative to the latter point, for certain low-wage jobs with few promotion prospects and where higher wages are simply not economically viable, so British workers have understandably tended to avoid them, where would you stand on temporary visas, as there used to be for fruit-pickers for example? (Admittedly the case for temporary visas there was stronger as such work was also seasonal making it less likely someone in this country solely for such a job would be self-supporting.)

    "High skilled family migrants should be classed as high skilled. If only for academic reasons we should at least record the data. We could also assess how many go into high skilled work" - collecting and verifying the full Monty of data would be expensive and an unnecessary inconvenience for those involved; for academic purposes, social surveys are probably enough. And "high skilled" is still tricky to pin down. I could find jobs in the £50k-100k range requiring nothing more than experience in recruitment or sales or jobs for £30k or below requiring MSc in a technical subject, so wage data isn't enough, but nor is academic level - think of top chefs, footballers, actors, artists etc.

    Any new immigration rules are unlikely to be simply points-based (that has been rejected as too simplistic/easily gameable) so will likely involve a confusing morass of requirements involving different qualification/experience (maybe salary too?) requirements for different jobs, legal wrangling over whether a certain job description fits into a certain category, what the appropriate numbers allowed should be for each type ... governments are generally poor at planning economies in detail, and there's no reason to expect them to have better luck at planning the labour market. It's certainly unlikely to be as responsive to employer demands as simply letting high-skilled labour move freely over Europe - precisely because they are not being distinguished, in whatever complex ways, from low-skilled labour who are also allowed to move freely...

    Nevertheless I can't see the public appetite for unskilled migration to be limited is inherently illegitimate. People seem to me to be at liberty to invite whom they like into their home. But restrictions do come with a cost.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,934

    Britain’s immigrants are already in aggregate a high-skilled group.

    Who the hell is on about Britain's immigrants ? Only you it seems.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 187
    Ishmael_Z said:


    And if you on an overcrowded bus you would prefer that no one else got on, and this is not because of an irrational dislike of the sort of people who are not currently on the bus. It is mystifying how hard this point is for otherwise apparently intelligent people to grasp.

    That's not a very useful analogy. If the bus journey is a nation then it's a nation with only one permanent resident where the number of immigrants and emigrants are precisely equal.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,070

    I have to say although corbyn might be the left wing trump, one thing I don’t think we will see is a porn star claiming he hired her services.

    LOL, yes I think we can all agree on that one.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,268

    Britain’s immigrants are already in aggregate a high-skilled group.

    Who the hell is on about Britain's immigrants ? Only you it seems.
    politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos-MORI polling finds voters have become more positive about immigration since Referendum
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,798
    O/T - Facebook stock is still getting hammered.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,714
    edited March 26
    HHemmelig said:


    And that is certainly how the average American tends to view things, hence the draconian visa process for professionals whilst they turn a blind eye to millions upon millions of illegal Mexican gardeners and hotel maids.

    If I were Big Boss Of The USA for a decade or two, and I was concerned about America's relative standing in the world as potential strategic rivals increase rapidly both in population and GDP per capita, and therefore doubly so in economic strength, I would be very keen to set up a system that brings in a hundred million (or a couple thereof) more New Americans by 2060, say. But I think I'd still want to be - and could afford to be - a bit choosey about who those millions might be, and in such respects their system, or the failure of its enforcement at massive scales, is bonkers.

    Anyhow, here's a counterpoint I often think about.

    Failing to stay in the EU has social and economic costs. Therefore Brexit is wrong-headed, stupid, immoral and illegitimate.

    Restricting migration has social and economic costs. Therefore such migration policy is wrong-headed, stupid, immoral and illegitimate.

    Failing to join the USA has social and economic costs. Therefore eschewing 51st-statehood is wrong-headed, stupid, immoral and illegitimate.

    Just in terms of economic convergence, one would expect a substantially higher GDP/capita from joining the USA as an integral state than from rejoining the EU. We have learned from watching people debating Brexit that even people we never previously suspected of thinking such things now fervently believe that economic growth and increased commercial trade are absolutely vital, the lifeblood of public services and so on, so anything that might shed a few percent of those things is therefore basically a conspiracy to kill frail people by reducing health and social care funding. Well there's a great hulking big pot of gold lying over the Atlantic, far stronger than the EU, and by this logic joining up with it will save thousands of lives so must be a Good Thing, and any opposition to it is basically evil. It would grant free movement to hundreds of millions of people. Plus we won't need to learn any foreign languages (well, kinda) and our votes would mean no more Trumpalikes, and more sensible policies on guns'n'wombs'n'healthcare. What is there not to like?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,238

    Ishmael_Z said:


    And if you on an overcrowded bus you would prefer that no one else got on, and this is not because of an irrational dislike of the sort of people who are not currently on the bus. It is mystifying how hard this point is for otherwise apparently intelligent people to grasp.

    That's not a very useful analogy. If the bus journey is a nation then it's a nation with only one permanent resident where the number of immigrants and emigrants are precisely equal.

    That's true in the long run, but what are we all in the long run?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 957

    Elliot said:


    I agree with your first point. High skilled family migrants should be classed as high skilled. If only for academic reasons we should at least record the data. We could also assess how many go into high skilled work.

    Non-medical care work and domestic service seem like things highly suitable for training young Britih people into.

    Any new immigration rules are unlikely to be simply points-based (that has been rejected as too simplistic/easily gameable) so will likely involve a confusing morass of requirements involving different qualification/experience (maybe salary too?) requirements for different jobs, legal wrangling over whether a certain job description fits into a certain category, what the appropriate numbers allowed should be for each type ... governments are generally poor at planning economies in detail, and there's no reason to expect them to have better luck at planning the labour market. It's certainly unlikely to be as responsive to employer demands as simply letting high-skilled labour move freely over Europe - precisely because they are not being distinguished, in whatever complex ways, from low-skilled labour who are also allowed to move freely...

    Nevertheless I can't see the public appetite for unskilled migration to be limited is inherently illegitimate. People seem to me to be at liberty to invite whom they like into their home. But restrictions do come with a cost.
    I think the coming wave of automation is likely to mean a shortage of lower wage, unskilled work so there is little need to bring in migrants to fill them. Germany's experience with temporary workers has found they tend not to be temporary, yet the status discourages the mental leap needed for integration, so I am not sure that is the right model.

    For me a points system can work well if well-designed. It is less prone to special interest lobbying than a sector-specific approach, which would also be more vulnerabke to your central planning criticisms. The best way to do it would be an either-or approach to salary earnings or academic achievement. More emphasis on the age component would also be sensible from a dependency ratio perspective.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,798
    Three top barristers conclude: 'Vote Leave committed crime on Brexit campaign'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/three-top-barristers-conclude-crime-committed-over-brexit-vote-a3799261.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    Dear Deirdre, my hire car has the initials JZR and has been christened Jezzer by its occupants. I am concerned that it might veer sharply to the left without warning - and might be a danger to Jewish road users. What should I do?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,138

    Ishmael_Z said:


    And if you on an overcrowded bus you would prefer that no one else got on, and this is not because of an irrational dislike of the sort of people who are not currently on the bus. It is mystifying how hard this point is for otherwise apparently intelligent people to grasp.

    That's not a very useful analogy. If the bus journey is a nation then it's a nation with only one permanent resident where the number of immigrants and emigrants are precisely equal.

    Also, the number of seats on the bus are not fixed. Britain had a population of maybe 6000 in 5000BC and 3 million in Roman times, 10.5 million in 1801, 38 million in 1901 and is currently estimated at 65 million. There is no particular reason to assume that it has suddenly become full or overcrowded.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,714
    Elliot said:


    I think the coming wave of automation is likely to mean a shortage of lower wage, unskilled work so there is little need to bring in migrants to fill them. Germany's experience with temporary workers has found they tend not to be temporary, yet the status discourages the mental leap needed for integration, so I am not sure that is the right model.

    For me a points system can work well if well-designed. It is less prone to special interest lobbying than a sector-specific approach, which would also be more vulnerabke to your central planning criticisms. The best way to do it would be an either-or approach to salary earnings or academic achievement. More emphasis on the age component would also be sensible from a dependency ratio perspective.

    I have to trot. Quite a lot of analysis in there I agree with, as well as some I don't. But many thanks for the considered reply.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,934

    Britain’s immigrants are already in aggregate a high-skilled group.

    Who the hell is on about Britain's immigrants ? Only you it seems.
    politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos-MORI polling finds voters have become more positive about immigration since Referendum
    Meeks is stirring the pot of immigration and people who are British subjects.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,103

    Three top barristers conclude: 'Vote Leave committed crime on Brexit campaign'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/three-top-barristers-conclude-crime-committed-over-brexit-vote-a3799261.html

    Just going nowhere
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 187
    Ishmael_Z said:



    That's true in the long run, but what are we all in the long run?

    Well at 43 years old I've already outlived the length of an average bus journey by a not so trivial length of time. ;)

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,268

    Britain’s immigrants are already in aggregate a high-skilled group.

    Who the hell is on about Britain's immigrants ? Only you it seems.
    politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos-MORI polling finds voters have become more positive about immigration since Referendum
    Meeks is stirring the pot of immigration and people who are British subjects.
    He feels guilty that he largely sat on his comfortable behind when he could have been making a difference during the referendum campaign. He's trying to make up for it now. It's interesting to observe, if a little sad.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,138

    Britain’s immigrants are already in aggregate a high-skilled group.

    Who the hell is on about Britain's immigrants ? Only you it seems.
    politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos-MORI polling finds voters have become more positive about immigration since Referendum
    Meeks is stirring the pot of immigration and people who are British subjects.
    He feels guilty that he largely sat on his comfortable behind when he could have been making a difference during the referendum campaign. He's trying to make up for it now. It's interesting to observe, if a little sad.
    I'm slightly concerned that you are contemplating my behind. I suspect there's more to psychoanalyse in that than in your own pitiful attempts on me.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 27,669

    Three top barristers conclude: 'Vote Leave committed crime on Brexit campaign'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/three-top-barristers-conclude-crime-committed-over-brexit-vote-a3799261.html

    Just going nowhere
    Apart from out of the EU.....
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,268

    Britain’s immigrants are already in aggregate a high-skilled group.

    Who the hell is on about Britain's immigrants ? Only you it seems.
    politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos-MORI polling finds voters have become more positive about immigration since Referendum
    Meeks is stirring the pot of immigration and people who are British subjects.
    He feels guilty that he largely sat on his comfortable behind when he could have been making a difference during the referendum campaign. He's trying to make up for it now. It's interesting to observe, if a little sad.
    I'm slightly concerned that you are contemplating my behind. I suspect there's more to psychoanalyse in that than in your own pitiful attempts on me.
    How did I know your bum looked big in that?!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,798
    Russian embassy running a twitter poll on which US consulate to close.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,008
    Abbot is just getting round to reading the weekend papers:

  • I guess this poll means if Brexit turns out to be a disaster the public will back rejoining the EU replete with Freedom of Movement and Schengen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,008
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429

    Ishmael_Z said:


    And if you on an overcrowded bus you would prefer that no one else got on, and this is not because of an irrational dislike of the sort of people who are not currently on the bus. It is mystifying how hard this point is for otherwise apparently intelligent people to grasp.

    That's not a very useful analogy. If the bus journey is a nation then it's a nation with only one permanent resident where the number of immigrants and emigrants are precisely equal.

    Also, the number of seats on the bus are not fixed. Britain had a population of maybe 6000 in 5000BC and 3 million in Roman times, 10.5 million in 1801, 38 million in 1901 and is currently estimated at 65 million. There is no particular reason to assume that it has suddenly become full or overcrowded.
    But as we are all getting bigger - witness your bum for evidence of that - we are at least moving to a point where full or overcrowded are closer than at any point in history....
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 957

    Ishmael_Z said:


    And if you on an overcrowded bus you would prefer that no one else got on, and this is not because of an irrational dislike of the sort of people who are not currently on the bus. It is mystifying how hard this point is for otherwise apparently intelligent people to grasp.

    That's not a very useful analogy. If the bus journey is a nation then it's a nation with only one permanent resident where the number of immigrants and emigrants are precisely equal.

    Also, the number of seats on the bus are not fixed. Britain had a population of maybe 6000 in 5000BC and 3 million in Roman times, 10.5 million in 1801, 38 million in 1901 and is currently estimated at 65 million. There is no particular reason to assume that it has suddenly become full or overcrowded.
    https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/house-price-to-earnings-ratio.png
    https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/rail-80-10.png
    https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/cost-transport.png
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,008
    It would be ironic, would it not, if Jezza is brought down by his indiscriminate use of social media?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,451

    Three top barristers conclude: 'Vote Leave committed crime on Brexit campaign'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/three-top-barristers-conclude-crime-committed-over-brexit-vote-a3799261.html

    Sad.

    More Watership Down than Watergate.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,103
    Report - Buildings across Salisbury will be de-contaminated later this week
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,004

    Three top barristers conclude: 'Vote Leave committed crime on Brexit campaign'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/three-top-barristers-conclude-crime-committed-over-brexit-vote-a3799261.html

    Just going nowhere
    Exactly what ever they do will not change the result.Time to move on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145

    HHemmelig said:


    And that is certainly how the average American tends to view things, hence the draconian visa process for professionals whilst they turn a blind eye to millions upon millions of illegal Mexican gardeners and hotel maids.

    If I were Big Boss Of The USA for a decade or two, and I was concerned about America's relative standing in the world as potential strategic rivals increase rapidly both in population and GDP per capita, and therefore doubly so in economic strength, I would be very keen to set up a system that brings in a hundred million (or a couple thereof) more New Americans by 2060, say. But I think I'd still want to be - and could afford to be - a bit choosey about who those millions might be, and in such respects their system, or the failure of its enforcement at massive scales, is bonkers.

    Anyhow, here's a counterpoint I often think about.

    Failing to stay in the EU has social and economic costs. Therefore Brexit is wrong-headed, stupid, immoral and illegitimate.

    Restricting migration has social and economic costs. Therefore such migration policy is wrong-headed, stupid, immoral and illegitimate.

    Failing to join the USA has social and economic costs. Therefore eschewing 51st-statehood is wrong-headed, stupid, immoral and illegitimate.

    Just in terms of economic convergence, one would expect a substantially higher GDP/capita from joining the USA as an integral state than from rejoining the EU. We have learned from watching people debating Brexit that even people we never previously suspected of thinking such things now fervently believe that economic growth and increased commercial trade are absolutely vital, the lifeblood of public services and so on, so anything that might shed a few percent of those things is therefore basically a conspiracy to kill frail people by reducing health and social care funding. Well there's a great hulking big pot of gold lying over the Atlantic, far stronger than the EU, and by this logic joining up with it will save thousands of lives so must be a Good Thing, and any opposition to it is basically evil. It would grant free movement to hundreds of millions of people. Plus we won't need to learn any foreign languages (well, kinda) and our votes would mean no more Trumpalikes, and more sensible policies on guns'n'wombs'n'healthcare. What is there not to like?
    That they wouldn't have us on our terms, and probably not on any terms.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,138

    Ishmael_Z said:


    And if you on an overcrowded bus you would prefer that no one else got on, and this is not because of an irrational dislike of the sort of people who are not currently on the bus. It is mystifying how hard this point is for otherwise apparently intelligent people to grasp.

    That's not a very useful analogy. If the bus journey is a nation then it's a nation with only one permanent resident where the number of immigrants and emigrants are precisely equal.

    Also, the number of seats on the bus are not fixed. Britain had a population of maybe 6000 in 5000BC and 3 million in Roman times, 10.5 million in 1801, 38 million in 1901 and is currently estimated at 65 million. There is no particular reason to assume that it has suddenly become full or overcrowded.
    But as we are all getting bigger - witness your bum for evidence of that - we are at least moving to a point where full or overcrowded are closer than at any point in history....
    There are three dimensions, one of which is barely used in this country, and an awful lot of empty space left unfilled. The problems caused by immigration are not problems caused by overcrowding but of poor use of space and resources.

    Neolithic MarqueeMark would no doubt have been growling about the Beaker People coming here and taking their women. The 21st century version is no more on the money than his ancestor.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,798
    TGOHF said:

    Three top barristers conclude: 'Vote Leave committed crime on Brexit campaign'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/three-top-barristers-conclude-crime-committed-over-brexit-vote-a3799261.html

    Sad.

    More Watership Down than Watergate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429

    It would be ironic, would it not, if Jezza is brought down by his indiscriminate use of social media?

    If he could bring down Facebook with him... Result!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,103

    TGOHF said:

    Three top barristers conclude: 'Vote Leave committed crime on Brexit campaign'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/three-top-barristers-conclude-crime-committed-over-brexit-vote-a3799261.html

    Sad.

    More Watership Down than Watergate.
    This is getting tedious, boring , and will have no effect
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,303
    TGOHF said:

    Three top barristers conclude: 'Vote Leave committed crime on Brexit campaign'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/three-top-barristers-conclude-crime-committed-over-brexit-vote-a3799261.html

    Sad.

    More Watership Down than Watergate.

    No mention of all the advantages Remain had.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,070
    edited March 26

    There are three dimensions, one of which is barely used in this country, and an awful lot of empty space left unfilled. The problems caused by immigration are not problems caused by overcrowding but of poor use of space and resources.

    Hmm, I don't think that one flies. Whilst you are right on the question of density, the fact at the moment is that new building takes place at the cost of enormous detriment to the countryside. It makes no sense to accept huge increases in population before we have sorted that out, especially since the political will and political space to do so doesn't really exist.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,833
    Mr. Borough, nice to see Abbott taking on the big stories of the day.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,103
    edited March 26

    Mr. Borough, nice to see Abbott taking on the big stories of the day.

    And reading her speech
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429

    Ishmael_Z said:


    And if you on an overcrowded bus you would prefer that no one else got on, and this is not because of an irrational dislike of the sort of people who are not currently on the bus. It is mystifying how hard this point is for otherwise apparently intelligent people to grasp.

    That's not a very useful analogy. If the bus journey is a nation then it's a nation with only one permanent resident where the number of immigrants and emigrants are precisely equal.

    Also, the number of seats on the bus are not fixed. Britain had a population of maybe 6000 in 5000BC and 3 million in Roman times, 10.5 million in 1801, 38 million in 1901 and is currently estimated at 65 million. There is no particular reason to assume that it has suddenly become full or overcrowded.
    But as we are all getting bigger - witness your bum for evidence of that - we are at least moving to a point where full or overcrowded are closer than at any point in history....
    There are three dimensions, one of which is barely used in this country, and an awful lot of empty space left unfilled. The problems caused by immigration are not problems caused by overcrowding but of poor use of space and resources.

    Neolithic MarqueeMark would no doubt have been growling about the Beaker People coming here and taking their women. The 21st century version is no more on the money than his ancestor.
    We used the third dimension. Grenfelll was the result.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,303

    Ishmael_Z said:


    And if you on an overcrowded bus you would prefer that no one else got on, and this is not because of an irrational dislike of the sort of people who are not currently on the bus. It is mystifying how hard this point is for otherwise apparently intelligent people to grasp.

    That's not a very useful analogy. If the bus journey is a nation then it's a nation with only one permanent resident where the number of immigrants and emigrants are precisely equal.

    Also, the number of seats on the bus are not fixed. Britain had a population of maybe 6000 in 5000BC and 3 million in Roman times, 10.5 million in 1801, 38 million in 1901 and is currently estimated at 65 million. There is no particular reason to assume that it has suddenly become full or overcrowded.
    But as we are all getting bigger - witness your bum for evidence of that - we are at least moving to a point where full or overcrowded are closer than at any point in history....
    There are three dimensions, one of which is barely used in this country, and an awful lot of empty space left unfilled. The problems caused by immigration are not problems caused by overcrowding but of poor use of space and resources.

    ...

    That's right. Because everyone loves living in tower blocks.

  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 384
    These charts show that while the anti-migrant revolt sweeps across Europe, there is one place where the juggernaut has shuddered to a halt... Britain. And it’s all down to two critical decisions taken by David Cameron: closing the door on economic migrants already in Europe, and calling a referendum on EU membership. Well done DC.
    http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/everywhere-but-here
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033
    edited March 26

    There are three dimensions, one of which is barely used in this country, and an awful lot of empty space left unfilled. The problems caused by immigration are not problems caused by overcrowding but of poor use of space and resources.

    Hmm, I don't think that one flies. Whilst you are right on the question of density, the fact at the moment is that new building takes place at the cost of enormous detriment to the countryside. It makes no sense to accept huge increases in population before we have sorted that out, especially since the political will and political space to do so doesn't really exist.
    Some things I've noted in the last few months

    1) The threat of development near one's property really sticks in the craw.
    2) The process of development (Bulldozers etc) is hideous if you're near it.
    3) Once development has taken place and you have a few new builds near you - thats not as good as before, but definitely better than stages 1 and 2.

    Oh Lord give us housing, just not near me...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,138

    Ishmael_Z said:


    And if you on an overcrowded bus you would prefer that no one else got on, and this is not because of an irrational dislike of the sort of people who are not currently on the bus. It is mystifying how hard this point is for otherwise apparently intelligent people to grasp.

    That's not a very useful analogy. If the bus journey is a nation then it's a nation with only one permanent resident where the number of immigrants and emigrants are precisely equal.

    Also, the number of seats on the bus are not fixed. Britain had a population of maybe 6000 in 5000BC and 3 million in Roman times, 10.5 million in 1801, 38 million in 1901 and is currently estimated at 65 million. There is no particular reason to assume that it has suddenly become full or overcrowded.
    But as we are all getting bigger - witness your bum for evidence of that - we are at least moving to a point where full or overcrowded are closer than at any point in history....
    There are three dimensions, one of which is barely used in this country, and an awful lot of empty space left unfilled. The problems caused by immigration are not problems caused by overcrowding but of poor use of space and resources.

    ...

    That's right. Because everyone loves living in tower blocks.

    In central London you can find enough luxury blocks of flats. But you don't need to go beyond 5 or 6 storey mansion blocks. Kensington & Chelsea is one of the most densely populated boroughs in the country. It is also the most expensive for property.

    150 years ago everyone dreamed of 3 acres and a cow. Tastes change with time and education.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357

    Elliot said:

    I have long believed people would become more positive and comfortable with immigration when the numbers are brought down and it's limited to the high skilled. I often wonder whether the way to drop the net immigration target is to break immigration numbers into high vs low skilled, with separate targets.

    Just because someone isn't coming on the skills-based migration route doesn't necessarily mean they are low-skilled themselves - as I understand it this simply will not even be assessed for various spousal/family migration routes, for example, nor for whether an asylum claim would be accepted. (Does this not lead to consternation for people with highly-skilled spouses who would be self-supporting, but nevertheless are assessed on the basis of their UK-based partner's earnings? I'm not an expert but this is my recollection.)

    Also some labour shortage areas e.g. basic health and social care are not what we would conventionally call "high" skilled. What about nannies/domestic service? I am not sure that trying to split everything into a high/low skills-based dichotomy is useful.

    But I'm nitpicking. I think your basic point that the migration targets should be deaggregated is a solid one, and would have avoided a lot of the nonsense over student visas for example.
    Don't go there when it comes to spousal visas. Speaking from experience, the rules make no sense at all on a number of levels.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 1,939

    Ishmael_Z said:


    And if you on an overcrowded bus you would prefer that no one else got on, and this is not because of an irrational dislike of the sort of people who are not currently on the bus. It is mystifying how hard this point is for otherwise apparently intelligent people to grasp.

    That's not a very useful analogy. If the bus journey is a nation then it's a nation with only one permanent resident where the number of immigrants and emigrants are precisely equal.

    Also, the number of seats on the bus are not fixed. Britain had a population of maybe 6000 in 5000BC and 3 million in Roman times, 10.5 million in 1801, 38 million in 1901 and is currently estimated at 65 million. There is no particular reason to assume that it has suddenly become full or overcrowded.
    But as we are all getting bigger - witness your bum for evidence of that - we are at least moving to a point where full or overcrowded are closer than at any point in history....
    There are three dimensions, one of which is barely used in this country, and an awful lot of empty space left unfilled. The problems caused by immigration are not problems caused by overcrowding but of poor use of space and resources.

    ...

    That's right. Because everyone loves living in tower blocks.

    In central London you can find enough luxury blocks of flats. But you don't need to go beyond 5 or 6 storey mansion blocks. Kensington & Chelsea is one of the most densely populated boroughs in the country. It is also the most expensive for property.

    150 years ago everyone dreamed of 3 acres and a cow. Tastes change with time and education.
    I still dream of 3 acres and a cow :)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,451
    edited March 26

    TGOHF said:

    Three top barristers conclude: 'Vote Leave committed crime on Brexit campaign'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/three-top-barristers-conclude-crime-committed-over-brexit-vote-a3799261.html

    Sad.

    More Watership Down than Watergate.
    This is getting tedious, boring , and will have no effect
    Oh I don't know - Cummings not happy - this may have some effect after all ..

    https://dominiccummings.com/2018/03/24/on-the-referendum-24c-the-whistleblowers-and-channel-4-observer-accusations/

    "UPDATE 26/3. It’s been suggested to me that I should put in a formal complaint about the lawyer @JolyonMaugham to the Bar Standards Board. His twitter feed alone is a disgrace to the bar. He has been guilty of at least reckless falsehood. Strikes me this would be a good public service so feel free to send evidence about him to my public email and I’ll send in a formal document with help from some barristers"

    "A team will also be putting in formal complaints to the EC and ICO about the illegal conduct of the Remain campaign, Osborne, Blair, Cameron, Mandelson, Clegg, Craig Dre et al. Don’t start deleting emails guys, cos that would be illegal, but start saving for lawyers. Meanwhile, we will also be starting our own campaign for a second referendum — on the ECHR…"
This discussion has been closed.