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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly TMay’s survival chances look a lot stronger

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 27 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly TMay’s survival chances look a lot stronger

There’s a Betfair market that hasn’t attracted much attention or liquidity on which of May/Corbyn/Cable/Sturgeon will be the first leader out. I think it would have been better to confine it to the PM and LOTO.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • No
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263
    edited March 27
    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,828
    Third :(
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300

    Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Depends how much of the campaign he has to spend defending anti-Semitism

  • Plus history suggests we're due a Maybot failure soon.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,857

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Ah, how pro-Corbyn of PB's "Good Muslim Boy" :lol:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @zoeconway1: V interesting on PM and customs union (honest)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    And still a much bigger asset to the Tories than May...
  • Scott_P said:

    @zoeconway1: V interesting on PM and customs union (honest)

    She's determined to give JRM an aneurysm
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,658
    The value is with May (though on the Betway market, Leanne Wood might be worth a punt at 16/1 is worth a shot - Plaid are rubbish).

    But as far as the main parties are concerned:

    1) May is a poor campaigner and Tory MPs can get rid of a leader easily and quickly;
    2) Corbyn has the proven backing of his membership and will remain in place for as long as he keeps them and his health remains good, irrespective of what his MPs think.

    Summer next year remains a very risky time for May. If not then, then 2021. I really don't think she'll be allowed to fight another election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263
    edited March 27
    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Depends how much of the campaign he has to spend defending anti-Semitism

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,909
    I think there’s a decent chance May leads the Tories into the next election. She’ll have quite the CV:

    Brexit (transition)
    Brexit (end state)
    Growing economy
    Low unemployment
    Growing real wages
    Sustained increase in NHS spending
    High housebuilding
    Foreign policy credibility

    As an admirer whose hopes were dashed at 10pm on 8th June 2017, I would like her to redeem herself. The media would love the rematch narrative, and it would play in her favour.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,802
    Until the last election, the broad consensus was that election campaigns didn't do much to change the outcome. And despite everything the "failure" of the last election was still basically a result of something outside of the Tories' control ie. opposition coalescing around the main opponent. At the next election May will be in a lot stronger position to campaign on the basis of her record in power, which makes a big difference. Of course that depends on how her record in power is perceived, but it makes a big difference.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 581

    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Depends how much of the campaign he has to spend defending anti-Semitism

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.
    Because nobody thought he could win. It's different now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.

    The Orange Order did not organise a demonstration outside parliament attended by many MPs, prompting Jezza to write a grovelling letter of faux apology
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 664
    Scott_P said:

    @zoeconway1: V interesting on PM and customs union (honest)

    May’s calling is clearly as a Civil Servant in the Sir Humphrey mould albeit without the wit and cunning. Still, we seem to be staying in the Customs Union until the 12th of Never, which offers some continuity for business at least.

  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,049
    RoyalBlue said:

    I think there’s a decent chance May leads the Tories into the next election. She’ll have quite the CV:

    Brexit (transition)
    Brexit (end state)
    Growing economy
    Low unemployment
    Growing real wages
    Sustained increase in NHS spending
    High housebuilding
    Foreign policy credibility

    As an admirer whose hopes were dashed at 10pm on 8th June 2017, I would like her to redeem herself. The media would love the rematch narrative, and it would play in her favour.

    I think that she will, the 2017 election will just be overtaken by events and forgotten. but the list above is very optimistic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    edited March 27

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,758

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Tis true, but if it is 2022, who knows if the leaders will be the same. I suspect neither will be.

    This is a terribly illiquid BF market, so not much values, but I reckon it will all be over by Christmas for Vince.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 572
    nielh said:

    the list above is very optimistic.

    You don't say.

    Putting Brexit to one side, we haven't had a recession since 2009 so the chance of one cropping up before 2022 is pretty high. That would change things considerably.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,666
    Scott_P said:

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.

    The Orange Order did not organise a demonstration outside parliament attended by many MPs, prompting Jezza to write a grovelling letter of faux apology
    Outside 3 - 4 seats anti-semitism is not a vote loser. But, those those 3 -4 seats are crucial in a close campaign.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,758
    Anazina said:

    Scott_P said:

    @zoeconway1: V interesting on PM and customs union (honest)

    May’s calling is clearly as a Civil Servant in the Sir Humphrey mould albeit without the wit and cunning. Still, we seem to be staying in the Customs Union until the 12th of Never, which offers some continuity for business at least.

    It is increasingly looking like BINO, but that is probably a good thing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,299

    No

    I disagree. Both May and Boris have gone up in my estimation given their response to the Salisbury attack. What's more, she's united the party behind her on it (and no, they're not holding knives)
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 664
    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033
    May Vs Corbyn next time round I think, contrary to the rest of the pbbrains trust
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 664

    No

    I disagree. Both May and Boris have gone up in my estimation given their response to the Salisbury attack. What's more, she's united the party behind her on it (and no, they're not holding knives)
    A fleeting period of competence. When your rep is rock bottom the only way is up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,758
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.

    The Orange Order did not organise a demonstration outside parliament attended by many MPs, prompting Jezza to write a grovelling letter of faux apology
    Outside 3 - 4 seats anti-semitism is not a vote loser. But, those those 3 -4 seats are crucial in a close campaign.
    The dark side of identity politics may shift votes the other way too. Anti-semitism is a perennial favourite of populists.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,524
    The thing is how much did May actually cost Con at the GE due to her bad campaign?

    When she called the GE, Con were around 43 to 45 in the polls and on the day they got 43.5% (GB).

    OK, they went up in the polls just after the GE was called and then eased back down a bit - but they still finished where they started.

    And that was with the bad campaign and the awful manisfesto.

    So with a decent manifesto and a better campaign which learns lessons from 2017 (and even allowing for the fact May isn't a great campaigner) it seems entirely possible that May might well do absolutely fine.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 664
    Foxy said:

    Anazina said:

    Scott_P said:

    @zoeconway1: V interesting on PM and customs union (honest)

    May’s calling is clearly as a Civil Servant in the Sir Humphrey mould albeit without the wit and cunning. Still, we seem to be staying in the Customs Union until the 12th of Never, which offers some continuity for business at least.

    It is increasingly looking like BINO, but that is probably a good thing.
    Foxy said:

    Anazina said:

    Scott_P said:

    @zoeconway1: V interesting on PM and customs union (honest)

    May’s calling is clearly as a Civil Servant in the Sir Humphrey mould albeit without the wit and cunning. Still, we seem to be staying in the Customs Union until the 12th of Never, which offers some continuity for business at least.

    It is increasingly looking like BINO, but that is probably a good thing.
    Indeed, it is in every businessperson’s interests that Brexit is as anodyne and pointless as possible. Blue passports and sod all difference in any other respect will do nicely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    Foxy said:

    Anazina said:

    Scott_P said:

    @zoeconway1: V interesting on PM and customs union (honest)

    May’s calling is clearly as a Civil Servant in the Sir Humphrey mould albeit without the wit and cunning. Still, we seem to be staying in the Customs Union until the 12th of Never, which offers some continuity for business at least.

    It is increasingly looking like BINO, but that is probably a good thing.
    It is not BINO as that would mean staying in the single market and customs union but it does look like a Canada style FTA that ends free movement rather than WTO rules
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 664
    Pulpstar said:

    May Vs Corbyn next time round I think, contrary to the rest of the pbbrains trust

    What an utterly dismal prospect.

    You may be right.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,268

    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Depends how much of the campaign he has to spend defending anti-Semitism

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.
    He hadn't failed to condemn the perpetrator of a chemical weapon attack on british soil at that point.

    His "I condemn all violence" line doesn't work in such a serious situation, and his pitifully inadequate response to this is a firm nail in the coffin of his prime ministerial ambitions.

    This will have been noticed by millions of people who don't remember the IRA, and surely can only be ignored by his most sycophantic acolytes.

    The extreme Corbynites are loud, but there are nowhere near enough of them. Laying Corbyn for next PM would look great if May weren't looking so secure - there might well not be a payout for some years.

    My recommendation for May at 17/2 to last until 2020 just before the first phase of EU negotiations concluded is looking quite good.

    Unless May, or the leave campaign, or the Jews murdered Skripal. In which case Jezza's nailed on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,758
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Anazina said:

    Scott_P said:

    @zoeconway1: V interesting on PM and customs union (honest)

    May’s calling is clearly as a Civil Servant in the Sir Humphrey mould albeit without the wit and cunning. Still, we seem to be staying in the Customs Union until the 12th of Never, which offers some continuity for business at least.

    It is increasingly looking like BINO, but that is probably a good thing.
    It is not BINO as that would mean staying in the single market and customs union but it does look like a Canada style FTA that ends free movement rather than WTO rules
    Well lets see where we end up. Already we have a vassal state Transition, and we havent seen what other concessions May will add.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,766
    The issue with anti-semitism and Labour was actually brought up during the election campaign - I distinctly remember it coming up during the leaders QT. So it has been out there for the public to know about it, and yet it didn’t stop nearly 40% of the electorate from voting Labour.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,273
    Scott_P said:

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.

    The Orange Order did not organise a demonstration outside parliament attended by many MPs, prompting Jezza to write a grovelling letter of faux apology
    The OO have other fish to fry.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 664
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Anazina said:

    Scott_P said:

    @zoeconway1: V interesting on PM and customs union (honest)

    May’s calling is clearly as a Civil Servant in the Sir Humphrey mould albeit without the wit and cunning. Still, we seem to be staying in the Customs Union until the 12th of Never, which offers some continuity for business at least.

    It is increasingly looking like BINO, but that is probably a good thing.
    It is not BINO as that would mean staying in the single market and customs union but it does look like a Canada style FTA that ends free movement rather than WTO rules
    Could be near full regulatory alignment, CU until 12th of Never and a fig leaf on freedom of movement which will quieten the immigration obsessives while making the cube root of fuck all difference to business. Here’s hoping.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    What if polls are not really worth that much - as the other candidates don't have the trappings of leadership around them to make it a fair comparison. They are fun but not very realistic.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,857
    Cameron 2015 - only 1 Tory seat in Scotland
    May 2017 - 13 Tory seats in Scotland
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Anazina said:

    Scott_P said:

    @zoeconway1: V interesting on PM and customs union (honest)

    May’s calling is clearly as a Civil Servant in the Sir Humphrey mould albeit without the wit and cunning. Still, we seem to be staying in the Customs Union until the 12th of Never, which offers some continuity for business at least.

    It is increasingly looking like BINO, but that is probably a good thing.
    It is not BINO as that would mean staying in the single market and customs union but it does look like a Canada style FTA that ends free movement rather than WTO rules
    Well lets see where we end up. Already we have a vassal state Transition, and we havent seen what other concessions May will add.
    The transition period may be BINO but that will end by 2021
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 21
    How can Corbyn be an asset to anything?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Anazina said:

    Scott_P said:

    @zoeconway1: V interesting on PM and customs union (honest)

    May’s calling is clearly as a Civil Servant in the Sir Humphrey mould albeit without the wit and cunning. Still, we seem to be staying in the Customs Union until the 12th of Never, which offers some continuity for business at least.

    It is increasingly looking like BINO, but that is probably a good thing.
    It is not BINO as that would mean staying in the single market and customs union but it does look like a Canada style FTA that ends free movement rather than WTO rules
    Could be near full regulatory alignment, CU until 12th of Never and a fig leaf on freedom of movement which will quieten the immigration obsessives while making the cube root of fuck all difference to business. Here’s hoping.
    Ending freedom of movement and replacing by work permits will be the biggest change beyond actually leaving the EU
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,028
    nielh said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I think there’s a decent chance May leads the Tories into the next election. She’ll have quite the CV:

    Brexit (transition)
    Brexit (end state)
    Growing economy
    Low unemployment
    Growing real wages
    Sustained increase in NHS spending
    High housebuilding
    Foreign policy credibility

    As an admirer whose hopes were dashed at 10pm on 8th June 2017, I would like her to redeem herself. The media would love the rematch narrative, and it would play in her favour.

    I think that she will, the 2017 election will just be overtaken by events and forgotten. but the list above is very optimistic.
    Indeed. I wouldn't recommend a headcount of poultry any time soon.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,413
    Pulpstar said:

    May Vs Corbyn next time round I think, contrary to the rest of the pbbrains trust

    And May would be a lot better than last time and Corbyn a lot worse.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,766
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 664
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Thornberry is the lady for Labour.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,793
    edited March 27
    "My view is that May is now a greater asset to her party than Corbyn."

    This was already the case last year, wasn't it? The BES polling found that people thought Labour had the "better policies", but the Conservatives had the "better leadership".

    Ergo, if anyone except May was leading the Tories last year, Corbyn would now be PM.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 664

    Pulpstar said:

    May Vs Corbyn next time round I think, contrary to the rest of the pbbrains trust

    And May would be a lot better than last time and Corbyn a lot worse.
    Very likely true.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,222
    Pulpstar said:

    May Vs Corbyn next time round I think, contrary to the rest of the pbbrains trust

    I've been predicting that for ages - as I said last year, there is no sensible path for the Tories to go from "we have a wonderful Brexit deal" to "we're gonna sack the woman who got it". That said, I think that conditions are optimal for May when there's a sense of crisis AND the Brexit talks are going OK. In more normal times, post-Brexit, I wonder.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,666
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.

    The Orange Order did not organise a demonstration outside parliament attended by many MPs, prompting Jezza to write a grovelling letter of faux apology
    Outside 3 - 4 seats anti-semitism is not a vote loser. But, those those 3 -4 seats are crucial in a close campaign.
    The dark side of identity politics may shift votes the other way too. Anti-semitism is a perennial favourite of populists.
    The types of seats where anti-semitism is popular are already held by Labour.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,766
    Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 664

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,758
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.

    The Orange Order did not organise a demonstration outside parliament attended by many MPs, prompting Jezza to write a grovelling letter of faux apology
    Outside 3 - 4 seats anti-semitism is not a vote loser. But, those those 3 -4 seats are crucial in a close campaign.
    The dark side of identity politics may shift votes the other way too. Anti-semitism is a perennial favourite of populists.
    The types of seats where anti-semitism is popular are already held by Labour.
    I wasn't thinking just of the seats with a substantial Muslim vote.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,766
    edited March 27
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,802

    Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.

    "Better" could just mean "a better overall package", even if she isn't any better at general campaigning. And a lot more thought will go in to the policy offering. Don't forget the last election was supposed to be first and foremost about increasing the majority to deliver Brexit. Which explained the lack of detailed background policy content. Then when they thought they were heading for landslide they started suggesting electoral losing policies "in the national long term interest".
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 664

    Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.

    Ha! Very true. How soon we forget.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.

    The Orange Order did not organise a demonstration outside parliament attended by many MPs, prompting Jezza to write a grovelling letter of faux apology
    Outside 3 - 4 seats anti-semitism is not a vote loser. But, those those 3 -4 seats are crucial in a close campaign.
    The dark side of identity politics may shift votes the other way too. Anti-semitism is a perennial favourite of populists.
    The types of seats where anti-semitism is popular are already held by Labour.
    It is not the anti-semitism per se that will do damage to Brand Corbyn. It is another thing that will shift perception of him. I know this has been tried before - but he was able to dismiss things as having been in the past.

    Anti-semitism and Salisbury are very much live issues. Very much something where his record as Leader is under scrutiny - not his past as a pointless backbencher. What he said and did then was of no real significance. What he has done since becoming Leader is.

    His refusal or inability to deal with anti-semitism, the misogyny of those around him and the language they use to express it has also gone uncondemned let alone punished. His mishandling of the events in Salisbury. All of that is stuff where his current record is key. And it is very much easier to attack him for things he has done in the past couple of years.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,268
    I'd like to apologise if any offense was taken by my last profile pic (which seems to have been banned, so I presume some was). It was intended to amuse not offend. ✌️
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Thornberry is the lady for Labour.
    I doubt she would do much better than Corbyn or Khan
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,793

    Pulpstar said:

    May Vs Corbyn next time round I think, contrary to the rest of the pbbrains trust

    I've been predicting that for ages - as I said last year, there is no sensible path for the Tories to go from "we have a wonderful Brexit deal" to "we're gonna sack the woman who got it". That said, I think that conditions are optimal for May when there's a sense of crisis AND the Brexit talks are going OK. In more normal times, post-Brexit, I wonder.
    There's simply never a good time to get rid of a sitting Prime Minister. If the Tories are doing decently in the polls, like now, Tory MPs will say to themselves "why rock the boat when things aren't too bad?" And if they start doing very badly in the polls, they'll say to themselves that things are already so precarious that they can't risk destabilising things further with a leadership contest.

    There's a reason that NO sitting Prime Minister has been forced out by their own party in recent times (no, not Thatcher - it was ultimately her decision to quit).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,758

    Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.

    I don't think May will lead the next campaign, but neither will she be defenestrated. I expect her to resign voluntarily once the Brexit deal is out of the way. She doesn't look to me to be someone who relishes another campaign.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,028
    edited March 27
    Then there are "events".
    The terrible event at Grenfell played right into JC's strengths and TM's weaknesses.
    The terrible event at Salisbury was the exact opposite,
    As ever, betting markets over-react.
    Who knows what event is next?

    80% to be first out was always a nonsense. So was Corbyn at 2%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    But also one who appeals to Tories
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    As I assume you never vote Tory and never voted UKIP surely for you it is just a choice between Labour, LD or Green?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,793
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    But also one who appeals to Tories
    Corbyn appealed enough to Tories last year to capture 10% of their 2015 voters.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,802
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    But also one who appeals to Tories
    Corbyn appealed enough to Tories last year to capture 10% of their 2015 voters.
    Did he appeal to Tories, or did they think they had a free hit because he couldn't win?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    edited March 27

    Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.

    It should not be forgotten the 42% May got at the general election in June 2017 was actually higher than the 38% she got at the County council elections on 4th May 2017, it was just Corbyn rose even further from 28% in May to 40% in June
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 957
    Foxy said:

    Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.

    I don't think May will lead the next campaign, but neither will she be defenestrated. I expect her to resign voluntarily once the Brexit deal is out of the way. She doesn't look to me to be someone who relishes another campaign.
    If May continues to represent the UK well abroad, gets a decent Brexit deal, puts in the scale of reforms needed to get houses built and promotes a talented bench for the next leadership contest, she can retire with a strong legacy and be an elder stateswoman. What more could she want?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,451

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    Been a while since we had a fat PM. Difficult to bang on about austerity , food banks , preventative health etc at that fighting weight.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,028
    edited March 27
    Elliot said:

    Foxy said:

    Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.

    I don't think May will lead the next campaign, but neither will she be defenestrated. I expect her to resign voluntarily once the Brexit deal is out of the way. She doesn't look to me to be someone who relishes another campaign.
    If May continues to represent the UK well abroad, gets a decent Brexit deal, puts in the scale of reforms needed to get houses built and promotes a talented bench for the next leadership contest, she can retire with a strong legacy and be an elder stateswoman. What more could she want?
    A realistic chance of all that coming to pass?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,451

    Scott_P said:

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.

    The Orange Order did not organise a demonstration outside parliament attended by many MPs, prompting Jezza to write a grovelling letter of faux apology
    The OO have other fish to fry.



    Fake news - an obvious false flag attempt.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 957
    dixiedean said:

    Elliot said:

    Foxy said:

    Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.

    I don't think May will lead the next campaign, but neither will she be defenestrated. I expect her to resign voluntarily once the Brexit deal is out of the way. She doesn't look to me to be someone who relishes another campaign.
    If May continues to represent the UK well abroad, gets a decent Brexit deal, puts in the scale of reforms needed to get houses built and promotes a talented bench for the next leadership contest, she can retire with a strong legacy and be an elder stateswoman. What more could she want?
    A realistic chance of all that coming to pass?
    There are promising signs on three of the four. Promoting a talented bench is the one there has been little action on.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,766
    alex. said:

    Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.

    "Better" could just mean "a better overall package", even if she isn't any better at general campaigning. And a lot more thought will go in to the policy offering. Don't forget the last election was supposed to be first and foremost about increasing the majority to deliver Brexit. Which explained the lack of detailed background policy content. Then when they thought they were heading for landslide they started suggesting electoral losing policies "in the national long term interest".
    Part of May’s failure last time was to make the Brexit election about Brexit, but even with more detail she may not be able to do that next time round. Part of the reason she wasn’t, was that many under 40 voters cared about other issues such as housing, tuition fees, the cost of living and the impact of austerity. There’s no real reason as to why these issues won’t still play a part at the next GE, and Corbyn, like last time is likely to try make these issues the focus of the campaign. There’s also the matter that the public find the process of Brexit very boring indeed - it’s the values divide which is the way people tend to relate to it.

    So far, I don’t see too much sign the May team have seriously thought about how to appeal to say, those under 40 voters in terms of serious policy offers. Recently, I saw a Telegraph article in which said that the Tory pitch to younger voters was going to be tell us how bad socialism was in the 1970s. That doesn’t exactly spark great hope that they’ve learned lessons.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,488
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    But also one who appeals to Tories
    Corbyn appealed enough to Tories last year to capture 10% of their 2015 voters.
    well, he cornered the anti semite vote market
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,766
    TGOHF said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    Been a while since we had a fat PM. Difficult to bang on about austerity , food banks , preventative health etc at that fighting weight.
    That’s a bit below the belt.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,793
    alex. said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    But also one who appeals to Tories
    Corbyn appealed enough to Tories last year to capture 10% of their 2015 voters.
    Did he appeal to Tories, or did they think they had a free hit because he couldn't win?
    Why have the vast majority of polls showed him holding onto those former Tory voters since the election, even after it's become clear he can win, if it was just a "free hit"?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,488
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Thornberry is the lady for Labour.
    A woman of the people lol
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 957

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    I find her a bit patronising. Yvette Cooper and Sadiq Khan would be my choices.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,802
    Danny565 said:

    alex. said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    But also one who appeals to Tories
    Corbyn appealed enough to Tories last year to capture 10% of their 2015 voters.
    Did he appeal to Tories, or did they think they had a free hit because he couldn't win?
    Why have the vast majority of polls showed him holding onto those former Tory voters since the election, even after it's become clear he can win, if it was just a "free hit"?
    I don't know, but if voting in an election offers a free hit, participating in an opinion poll is even more so.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,451

    TGOHF said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    Been a while since we had a fat PM. Difficult to bang on about austerity , food banks , preventative health etc at that fighting weight.
    That’s a bit below the belt.
    True though - Brown the only non- trim PM for over 40 years - and he wasn’t elected.

    If you can’t look after yourself why trust them with the country.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,273
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.

    The Orange Order did not organise a demonstration outside parliament attended by many MPs, prompting Jezza to write a grovelling letter of faux apology
    The OO have other fish to fry.



    Fake news - an obvious false flag attempt.
    Caught me a tinfoil hatted zoomer.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542
    Elliot said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    I find her a bit patronising. Yvette Cooper and Sadiq Khan would be my choices.
    Cooper is just as patronising - and similarly hectoring at times. Khan is slippery. His record of broken promises as Mayor will eventually come back to bite him.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,766
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    As I assume you never vote Tory and never voted UKIP surely for you it is just a choice between Labour, LD or Green?
    I considered voting Tory in 2017, and during the early period of May’s premiership I was pretty supportive of her. You’re right though that I consider myself as being on the left. I did think of myself as that though in 2015, 2016 and early in 2017 when I was very dismissive of Corbyn’s chances. What changed my views was how well he did, which made me think over whether a centrist leader was the best route for Labour.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,758
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    As I assume you never vote Tory and never voted UKIP surely for you it is just a choice between Labour, LD or Green?
    I think Ms Apocalypse was flirting with the Tories a year ago.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,451

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.

    Didn't hurt Jez.

    The Orange Order did not organise a demonstration outside parliament attended by many MPs, prompting Jezza to write a grovelling letter of faux apology
    The OO have other fish to fry.



    Fake news - an obvious false flag attempt.
    Caught me a tinfoil hatted zoomer.
    The vocabulary is all wrong for a Michael Stone style staunch nut job. Doesn’t mention the Union, Great Britain or her maj.

    A downtrodden and demented Celtic fan in need of a job with a poor fake.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,268

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    I doubt I'd ever vote for a Cooper led Labour party, but she's the voice in it that I find most convincing. I used to dislike her when she seemed some of a Brownite stooge, but I expect my view of her was tainted by my view of him.

    I've really warmed to her, and Ed, over the last couple of years, and I think they would be a solid couple to restore Labour's credibility. I'm aware this change in feeling may be influenced by their lack of enthusiasm for Corbyn.

    I've never found Umunna at all convincing. I think he'd be a weak Labour leader.

    I'm a tory who's glad we're leaving the EU, so unlikely to be a trusted advisor for Labour folk :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,028
    Elliot said:

    dixiedean said:

    Elliot said:

    Foxy said:

    Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.

    I don't think May will lead the next campaign, but neither will she be defenestrated. I expect her to resign voluntarily once the Brexit deal is out of the way. She doesn't look to me to be someone who relishes another campaign.
    If May continues to represent the UK well abroad, gets a decent Brexit deal, puts in the scale of reforms needed to get houses built and promotes a talented bench for the next leadership contest, she can retire with a strong legacy and be an elder stateswoman. What more could she want?
    A realistic chance of all that coming to pass?
    There are promising signs on three of the four. Promoting a talented bench is the one there has been little action on.
    Getting a decent Brexit deal...signs of improvement from a pretty low base.
    houses built...lots of talk. Little in the way of concrete action, in particular confronting well-organised and funded NIMBY and BANANA groups of Tory-leaning voters and their allies in Tory Councils. This is essential. A sine non qua.
    Promoting talent. Often reminds me of the footy fan who says we've a really good Youth team. 1 in 10 of them make it. And there isn't a good youth team anyway. 3 months ago Gavin Williamson was good.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,909
    Thornberry would be great for the Tories. A posh liberal lefty Islington MP, who thinks people flying the flag is remarkable, probably isn’t best placed to win over voters in marginal seats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    dixiedean said:

    Elliot said:

    dixiedean said:

    Elliot said:

    Foxy said:

    Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.

    I don't think May will lead the next campaign, but neither will she be defenestrated. I expect her to resign voluntarily once the Brexit deal is out of the way. She doesn't look to me to be someone who relishes another campaign.
    If May continues to represent the UK well abroad, gets a decent Brexit deal, puts in the scale of reforms needed to get houses built and promotes a talented bench for the next leadership contest, she can retire with a strong legacy and be an elder stateswoman. What more could she want?
    A realistic chance of all that coming to pass?
    There are promising signs on three of the four. Promoting a talented bench is the one there has been little action on.
    Getting a decent Brexit deal...signs of improvement from a pretty low base.
    houses built...lots of talk. Little in the way of concrete action, in particular confronting well-organised and funded NIMBY and BANANA groups of Tory-leaning voters and their allies in Tory Councils. This is essential. A sine non qua.
    Promoting talent. Often reminds me of the footy fan who says we've a really good Youth team. 1 in 10 of them make it. And there isn't a good youth team anyway. 3 months ago Gavin Williamson was good.
    Here in Epping Forest we are getting 11 000 new homes under the Local Plan and if the Council had not agreed that on time, against LD and Residents' opposition, the Government would have increased that number to 20,000. It is actually the LDs who are most often the leading NIMBYs in the Home Counties
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,451
    RoyalBlue said:

    Thornberry would be great for the Tories. A posh liberal lefty Islington MP, who thinks people flying the flag is remarkable, probably isn’t best placed to win over voters in marginal seats.

    Plus a growing portfolio of track record and quotes supporting Corbyn....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,758
    edited March 27
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    Been a while since we had a fat PM. Difficult to bang on about austerity , food banks , preventative health etc at that fighting weight.
    That’s a bit below the belt.
    True though - Brown the only non- trim PM for over 40 years - and he wasn’t elected.

    If you can’t look after yourself why trust them with the country.
    Bareing in mind how porky we are as a nation of lardarses, I can see where you are going. If only thin people could vote we would have had a Remain landslide!

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    But also one who appeals to Tories
    Corbyn appealed enough to Tories last year to capture 10% of their 2015 voters.
    Though almost equally balanced by 2015 Labour voters moving to the Tories, so little net gain overal
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,766
    Elliot said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    I find her a bit patronising. Yvette Cooper and Sadiq Khan would be my choices.
    I don’t have anything against Cooper per se, but I just feel very uninspired by her centrist politics. I feel like Cooper’s time to run was 2010. I remember thinking in 2015 that she was the one to lead Labour, in part because of how terrible the other leadership candidates were. Now looking back, her leadership campaign was pretty lacklustre and doesn’t exactly make me that she’d make a great leader. I have to say I have warmed to Sadiq Khan though, ever since that Mayoral campaign. Prior to that, I wasn’t much of a fan.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    As I assume you never vote Tory and never voted UKIP surely for you it is just a choice between Labour, LD or Green?
    I considered voting Tory in 2017, and during the early period of May’s premiership I was pretty supportive of her. You’re right though that I consider myself as being on the left. I did think of myself as that though in 2015, 2016 and early in 2017 when I was very dismissive of Corbyn’s chances. What changed my views was how well he did, which made me think over whether a centrist leader was the best route for Labour.
    He has united the left behind him certainly
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,451
    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    Been a while since we had a fat PM. Difficult to bang on about austerity , food banks , preventative health etc at that fighting weight.
    That’s a bit below the belt.
    True though - Brown the only non- trim PM for over 40 years - and he wasn’t elected.

    If you can’t look after yourself why trust them with the country.
    Bareing in mind how porky we are as a nation of lardarses, I can see where you are going. If only thin people could vote we would have had a Remain landslide!

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
    The voters deep down are shallow -Cameron was well turned out and had a nice smile. Ditto Tony.

    Scruffs like Foot, Brown and Corbyn all lost elections.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,758

    Elliot said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    I find her a bit patronising. Yvette Cooper and Sadiq Khan would be my choices.
    I don’t have anything against Cooper per se, but I just feel very uninspired by her centrist politics. I feel like Cooper’s time to run was 2010. I remember thinking in 2015 that she was the one to lead Labour, in part because of how terrible the other leadership candidates were. Now looking back, her leadership campaign was pretty lacklustre and doesn’t exactly make me that she’d make a great leader. I have to say I have warmed to Sadiq Khan though, ever since that Mayoral campaign. Prior to that, I wasn’t much of a fan.
    Coopers day has gone, though I could see her back on the Front Bench. I quite like Thornberry, but have a soft spot for Angela Rayner and Jess Phillips too. The latter two have the nessecary firebrand oratory and roots in swing regions.

    Jess Phillips would be a great PM.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,793
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    But also one who appeals to Tories
    Corbyn appealed enough to Tories last year to capture 10% of their 2015 voters.
    Though almost equally balanced by 2015 Labour voters moving to the Tories, so little net gain overal
    Sure, there was a lot of movement both ways. But, nonetheless, it's factually incorrect to state Corbyn has no appeal to Tory voters, when he won over 1 in 10 of them just last summer.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,766

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
    .
    I doubt I'd ever vote for a Cooper led Labour party, but she's the voice in it that I find most convincing. I used to dislike her when she seemed some of a Brownite stooge, but I expect my view of her was tainted by my view of him.

    I've really warmed to her, and Ed, over the last couple of years, and I think they would be a solid couple to restore Labour's credibility. I'm aware this change in feeling may be influenced by their lack of enthusiasm for Corbyn.

    I've never found Umunna at all convincing. I think he'd be a weak Labour leader.

    I'm a tory who's glad we're leaving the EU, so unlikely to be a trusted advisor for Labour folk :)
    Of all the centrists, I like Umunna the most, although I agree with you that I don’t think he’d be a great leader. Someone to bring back into the shadow cabinet though. I agree on Ed - I voted for Labour back when he was leader in 2015, and as time goes on my opinion of him only gets better and better. Unfortunately I don’t think he would appeal to the public - 2015 kind of proved that - he’s another that I think would be great in the shadow cabinet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,758
    TGOHF said:

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.

    Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
    She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
    Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
    Many
    .
    Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
    I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
    Been a while since we had a fat PM. Difficult to bang on about austerity , food banks , preventative health etc at that fighting weight.
    That’s a bit below the belt.
    True though - Brown the only non- trim PM for over 40 years - and he wasn’t elected.

    If you can’t look after yourself why trust them with the country.
    Bareing in mind how porky we are as a nation of lardarses, I can see where you are going. If only thin people could vote we would have had a Remain landslide!

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
    The voters deep down are shallow -Cameron was well turned out and had a nice smile. Ditto Tony.

    Scruffs like Foot, Brown and Corbyn all lost elections.
    There is some truth to that, but Jezz now dresses smartly, while Mays clunky jewelry and migraine inducing outfits are not ones with mass appeal. I have always thought that such interesting clothes are particularly popular with mediocraties who inwardly fear their inner dullness.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,028
    edited March 27
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Elliot said:

    dixiedean said:

    Elliot said:

    Foxy said:

    Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.

    I don't think May will lead the next campaign, but neither will she be defenestrated. I expect her to resign voluntarily once the Brexit deal is out of the way. She doesn't look to me to be someone who relishes another campaign.
    If May continues to represent the UK well abroad, gets a decent Brexit deal, puts in the scale of reforms needed to get houses built and promotes a talented bench for the next leadership contest, she can retire with a strong legacy and be an elder stateswoman. What more could she want?
    A realistic chance of all that coming to pass?
    There are promising signs on three of the four. Promoting a talented bench is the one there has been little action on.
    Getting a decent Brexit deal...signs of improvement from a pretty low base.
    houses built...lots of talk. Little in the way of concrete action, in particular confronting well-organised and funded NIMBY and BANANA groups of Tory-leaning voters and their allies in Tory Councils. This is essential. A sine non qua.
    Promoting talent. Often reminds me of the footy fan who says we've a really good Youth team. 1 in 10 of them make it. And there isn't a good youth team anyway. 3 months ago Gavin Williamson was good.
    Here in Epping Forest we are getting 11 000 new homes under the Local Plan and if the Council had not agreed that on time, against LD and Residents' opposition, the Government would have increased that number to 20,000. It is actually the LDs who are most often the leading NIMBYs in the Home Counties
    Well quite about the LD's. However, here we have a Council who got elected promising to rip up the Local Plan and won't have a new one till 2021 at the earliest. This is the 2nd Plan proposed, passed and discarded at Election time. LD's, Labour. Now it is Tories turn. So far we have had words from Javid.
    Unless he is prepared to overrule a Conservative Council there will be no new houses actually built before the next GE.
    I do understand all parties will play it for local popularity, but Central govt needs to get tough, even if it means alienating its own supporters.
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