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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Playing the long game: what do Labour’s moderates do?

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 31 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Playing the long game: what do Labour’s moderates do?

Keiran Pedley posed a good question on Twitter yesterday, when he asked “I keep seeing people say that Labour moderates should now ‘act’. What does that actually mean?”. The problem is that those demanding action are often demanding the impossible – namely that they remove Corbyn and return Labour to a centre-left social democratic party.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    This doesn’t seem to have got much publicity, but perhaps Cambridge Analytica didn’t use “stolen” data after all...

    In the document, Global Science Research, Mr Kogan’s company, outlined terms and conditions that asked users for permission to collect information, including their likes and status updates as well as those of their Facebook friends. The terms stated that the company would have the right to “edit, copy, disseminate, publish, transfer, append or merge with other databases, sell, license . . . and archive your contribution and data”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6ef3766a-3368-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,828
    Third :(
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,828
    FU, FU :smiley:

    :p
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    RobD said:

    Third :(

    like...class citizen....how the Jews will be treated in Corbynistan.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,836
    14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    edited March 31
    Roger said:

    14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

    The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.

    Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/6-gazans-said-wounded-as-thousands-flock-to-border-to-protest/

  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,836
    edited March 31

    Roger said:

    14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

    The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.

    Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/6-gazans-said-wounded-as-thousands-flock-to-border-to-protest/

    So you shoot people attacking a fence? Maybe time for 'Labour Friends of Israel' to make sacrifices and give up their lavish hospitality for a few weeks.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    edited March 31
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

    The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.

    Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/6-gazans-said-wounded-as-thousands-flock-to-border-to-protest/

    So you shoot people attacking a fence?
    Gun men you know might just be a threat to life.

    Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,836
    edited March 31

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

    The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.

    Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/6-gazans-said-wounded-as-thousands-flock-to-border-to-protest/

    So you shoot people attacking a fence?
    Gun men you know might just be a threat to life.

    Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.
    They were all behind a fence. It was what is known as 'a turkey shoot'. Palestinian lives matter.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

    The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.

    Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/6-gazans-said-wounded-as-thousands-flock-to-border-to-protest/

    So you shoot people attacking a fence?
    Gun men you know might just be a threat to life.

    Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.
    They were all behind a fence. It was what is known as 'a turkey shoot'. Palestinian lives matter.
    Cos you can't shoot soldiers with a gun if you are behind a fence...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    McDonnell raises the profile of a tweet harmful to Corbyn. What could he possibly have to gain by that....?

    #McDonnellOnManoeuvres

    Time for the True Believers to move against the Columnist Within...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383

    McDonnell raises the profile of a tweet harmful to Corbyn. What could he possibly have to gain by that....?

    #McDonnellOnManoeuvres

    Time for the True Believers to move against the Columnist Within...
    Have always said, McIRA is far more dangerous than Corbyn, because he isn't thick as shit and is at ease lying and seemingly changing his position to get his way.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,836

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

    The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.

    Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/6-gazans-said-wounded-as-thousands-flock-to-border-to-protest/

    So you shoot people attacking a fence?
    Gun men you know might just be a threat to life.

    Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.
    They were all behind a fence. It was what is known as 'a turkey shoot'. Palestinian lives matter.
    Cos you can't shoot soldiers with a gun if you are behind a fence...
    Clearly not very effectively. Scores of Palestinians injured and sixteen killed all enclosed behind a fence.. No Israelis hurt
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429

    McDonnell raises the profile of a tweet harmful to Corbyn. What could he possibly have to gain by that....?

    #McDonnellOnManoeuvres

    Time for the True Believers to move against the Columnist Within...
    Have always said, McIRA is far more dangerous than Corbyn, because he isn't thick as shit and is at ease lying and seemingly changing his position to get his way.
    For Labour, it's out of the frying pan into the nuclear reactor meh, Corbyn has shown the voters don't worry about past IRA associations.....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,836

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    For an ad to be effective it has first and formost to be believable. That's why this fails. It's no more than a witty cartoon.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    It certainly doesn't look like Sir Alan knocked it up on his own Amstrad PC
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    It certainly doesn't look like Sir Alan knocked it up on his own Amstrad PC
    Are we sure Sugar even came up with it, or was it just sent to him and he thought it was funny / effective attack on Corbyn and decided to tweet it.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542
    Roger said:

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    For an ad to be effective it has first and formost to be believable. That's why this fails. It's no more than a witty cartoon.
    Cartoons can end up being quite powerful.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,836

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    It certainly doesn't look like Sir Alan knocked it up on his own Amstrad PC
    He chose an unfortunate day to air it.

    It's a Private Eye cover and with a different headline could as easily have been directed at Corbyn's critics.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    Roger said:

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    For an ad to be effective it has first and formost to be believable. That's why this fails. It's no more than a witty cartoon.
    If you are a moderate Labour MP, spending Easter eating chocolate eggs and contemplating the future of your Party, it's more than a witty cartoon.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,799
    Sober analysis.

    The only thing that didn’t quite chime for me was this:
    “Other than that, the moderates must hope that the faddists simply get bored with the Corbyn project and move on, leaving enough scope to act when the opportunity arises.”

    I think the Labour Party membership are engaged and fired up.
    I could see members giving up after a big defeat - but just drifting away feels unlikely...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,766
    edited March 31
    That YouGov poll of Labour members reinforces what I’ve been saying recently: that the Blairism/centrism is not coming back anytime soon as a force in Labour. And tbh, I’m not sure whether people with Blair’s worldview were ever really a big force within the Labour membership. I can’t recall a time when Labour members where known for being pro private public partnerships in public services, or believers in neoconservatism, for example.

    What shocked me were that there were people shocked by this poll - especially Conservatives and moderates on twitter, who seem surprised at Labour members views re when they were asked about various countries. I’ve not gotten the impression, that many on the left shared similar outlook on these questions with Conservatives. It’s a situation where the PLP’s shared outlook with other parties on these questions are not really reflective of many on the left.

    What it confirms (to anyone in doubt) is that the most hardcore of Corbynistas are representative of the Labour membership.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542
    rkrkrk said:

    Sober analysis.

    The only thing that didn’t quite chime for me was this:
    “Other than that, the moderates must hope that the faddists simply get bored with the Corbyn project and move on, leaving enough scope to act when the opportunity arises.”

    I think the Labour Party membership are engaged and fired up.
    I could see members giving up after a big defeat - but just drifting away feels unlikely...

    I think part of the Labour Party membership is fired up. But a large part of that is only fired up to be active behind a screen - on Twitter or similar places. And whilst that might have some actual campaigning use - a lot of it is hot air (and, as we have seen, some very nasty stuff has been posted)

    Keyboard warriors are all very well - but they aren't as effective as boots on the ground. And for many, that is a bit too much effort.

    And there is also a significant minority of Labour members who are just sitting quiet in the hope that their party eventually sobers up.

    This is all about differential turn out. The ongoing coverage of internal Labour struggles won't help drive people to the polls on 3rd May. There are plenty who identify as Labour but who will struggle to vote for the current party.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,700

    rkrkrk said:

    Sober analysis.

    The only thing that didn’t quite chime for me was this:
    “Other than that, the moderates must hope that the faddists simply get bored with the Corbyn project and move on, leaving enough scope to act when the opportunity arises.”

    I think the Labour Party membership are engaged and fired up.
    I could see members giving up after a big defeat - but just drifting away feels unlikely...

    I think part of the Labour Party membership is fired up. But a large part of that is only fired up to be active behind a screen - on Twitter or similar places. And whilst that might have some actual campaigning use - a lot of it is hot air (and, as we have seen, some very nasty stuff has been posted)

    Keyboard warriors are all very well - but they aren't as effective as boots on the ground. And for many, that is a bit too much effort.

    And there is also a significant minority of Labour members who are just sitting quiet in the hope that their party eventually sobers up.

    This is all about differential turn out. The ongoing coverage of internal Labour struggles won't help drive people to the polls on 3rd May. There are plenty who identify as Labour but who will struggle to vote for the current party.
    Reports from GE2017 were that Momentum and/or the Corbynites were putting their feet on the ground.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542

    rkrkrk said:

    Sober analysis.

    The only thing that didn’t quite chime for me was this:
    “Other than that, the moderates must hope that the faddists simply get bored with the Corbyn project and move on, leaving enough scope to act when the opportunity arises.”

    I think the Labour Party membership are engaged and fired up.
    I could see members giving up after a big defeat - but just drifting away feels unlikely...

    I think part of the Labour Party membership is fired up. But a large part of that is only fired up to be active behind a screen - on Twitter or similar places. And whilst that might have some actual campaigning use - a lot of it is hot air (and, as we have seen, some very nasty stuff has been posted)

    Keyboard warriors are all very well - but they aren't as effective as boots on the ground. And for many, that is a bit too much effort.

    And there is also a significant minority of Labour members who are just sitting quiet in the hope that their party eventually sobers up.

    This is all about differential turn out. The ongoing coverage of internal Labour struggles won't help drive people to the polls on 3rd May. There are plenty who identify as Labour but who will struggle to vote for the current party.
    Reports from GE2017 were that Momentum and/or the Corbynites were putting their feet on the ground.
    True - to a certain extent. But the current effort seems to be on internal take-over rather than trying to find voters - at least in some areas.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,766
    edited March 31

    rkrkrk said:

    Sober analysis.

    The only thing that didn’t quite chime for me was this:
    “Other than that, the moderates must hope that the faddists simply get bored with the Corbyn project and move on, leaving enough scope to act when the opportunity arises.”

    I think the Labour Party membership are engaged and fired up.
    I could see members giving up after a big defeat - but just drifting away feels unlikely...

    I think part of the Labour Party membership is fired up. But a large part of that is only fired up to be active behind a screen - on Twitter or similar places. And whilst that might have some actual campaigning use - a lot of it is hot air (and, as we have seen, some very nasty stuff has been posted)

    Keyboard warriors are all very well - but they aren't as effective as boots on the ground. And for many, that is a bit too much effort.

    And there is also a significant minority of Labour members who are just sitting quiet in the hope that their party eventually sobers up.

    This is all about differential turn out. The ongoing coverage of internal Labour struggles won't help drive people to the polls on 3rd May. There are plenty who identify as Labour but who will struggle to vote for the current party.
    Reports from GE2017 were that Momentum and/or the Corbynites were putting their feet on the ground.
    Yes, it was one of the stories of the GE. Those who love Corbyn are not just keyboard warriors, they will go hardcore for him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    Trying to work out if waking up to that story is more fun than seeing the cricket score?

    Somewhat brave of Sir Alan, but newspapers have republished it. Watching Corbyn or Labour trying to sue him over it would be popcorn time on steroids!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,700
    It was said the other day but remains true that the Conservative Party has not yet barked in the nighttime. If there is a betting message from the anti-semitism row it might be to lay Conservative and Labour front-benchers who are vulnerable on this or similar racism issues.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 294
    There is, I think a fourth option. The big card moderates have to play is that a new party, while struggling to win itself - would effectively end any chance of Corbyn winning a majority, as it would attract a fair chunk of Labour voters who find Corbyn morally repulsive but currently feel they have to remain loyal as a pro-Brexit Tory Party is as unpalatable and they like their local MP or people within Labour who aren't taken in by the Corbyn cult and its lies.

    MPs and activists could make preparations to split, and use it as leverage to demand Corbyn and his supporters stop enabling and tacitly racism, and their nastiest instincts, or with regret they will be left with no choice but to campaign against the party and advise the public that he is totally unfit to lead the country.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,700
    Labour moderates' main problem is that unlike New Labour in the 1990s, they have no policy ideas, just dislike of a leader whose age means he will probably be gone soon anyway and a vague feeling that something or other should be done about Brexit. Some of them worried that Ed Miliband was pushing it a bit yet Theresa May is not above cherry-picking from his manifesto. Like DH, I expect no SDP-style split.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,219
    edited March 31
    OT - re ballgate wtf. When are they gonna stop crying? There's gotta be a danger of sea levels rising if it goes on much longer. Only a game ffs.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,138

    Labour moderates' main problem is that unlike New Labour in the 1990s, they have no policy ideas, just dislike of a leader whose age means he will probably be gone soon anyway and a vague feeling that something or other should be done about Brexit. Some of them worried that Ed Miliband was pushing it a bit yet Theresa May is not above cherry-picking from his manifesto. Like DH, I expect no SDP-style split.

    This is the essential point. The putative rebels are against the hard left and against Brexit but they are not actively for anything.

    So the extremists in charge of both main parties have the field to themselves.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    One option that David doesn't cover, that doesn't fit neatly into any of the three categories, would for moderate Labour MPs and other figures to urge a voter boycott.

    Frankly, they are currently ashamed of their party and don't want to be associated with it. And the only thing bigger than the hundreds of thousands of members controlling its direction are the many millions of voters that empower it. They could say "we cannot in all conscience ask you to vote for the current Labour party" - whether because of Corbyn's supine attitude to anti-semitism alone, or combined with Corbyn's supine attitude to Brexit and/or his supine attitude towards the threat from Russia. This May, send a message - sit on your hands. They could use the expectation that Labour will do well to show they still have leverage on the voters. A poor set of results for Labour as against expectations - and they have demonstrated real clout for change.

    It would at least be doing SOMETHING. It's not a mass resignation from the Front Bench. It's not committing suicide by forming a new party. It is appealling over the heads of the members to protect their Party. It's saying "c'mon guys, help us take back to where you don't feel dirty putting your cross against Labour".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,299

    Labour moderates' main problem is that unlike New Labour in the 1990s, they have no policy ideas, just dislike of a leader whose age means he will probably be gone soon anyway and a vague feeling that something or other should be done about Brexit. Some of them worried that Ed Miliband was pushing it a bit yet Theresa May is not above cherry-picking from his manifesto. Like DH, I expect no SDP-style split.

    That's easy to fix: just agree on Labour's 2015 manifesto (minus the owls and stone) as a basis. It was only three years ago, and the world has not significantly changed much since then. The majority of Labour MPs were happy to campaign under it.

    It'd need altering, but the basic thrust is probably one all moderate Labour MPs could unite under.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,299
    Roger said:

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    It certainly doesn't look like Sir Alan knocked it up on his own Amstrad PC
    He chose an unfortunate day to air it.

    It's a Private Eye cover and with a different headline could as easily have been directed at Corbyn's critics.
    Private Eye would have photoshopped people complaining about antisemitism in the Labour Party into a car with Hitler?

    Really?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    felix said:

    OT - re ballgate wtf. When are they gonna stop crying? There's gotta be a danger of sea levels rising if it goes on much longer. Only a game ffs.

    Conversely, it’s hillarious to watch the dirty cheating convicts bawling their eyes out, in a vain and misguided attempt to attract some public sympathy for being dirty cheating convicts.

    Their only regret is that they got caught, this was a premeditated and organised attempt to cheat, which just isn’t cricket. Maybe they’re just trying keep attention on themselves to distract from how many more of their colleagues were involved.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    36 for 5 to then 178 for 6 was a damn fine Kiwi recovery.

    Sod it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    OT - re ballgate wtf. When are they gonna stop crying? There's gotta be a danger of sea levels rising if it goes on much longer. Only a game ffs.

    Conversely, it’s hillarious to watch the dirty cheating convicts bawling their eyes out, in a vain and misguided attempt to attract some public sympathy for being dirty cheating convicts.

    Their only regret is that they got caught, this was a premeditated and organised attempt to cheat, which just isn’t cricket. Maybe they’re just trying keep attention on themselves to distract from how many more of their colleagues were involved.
    ...and for how long they've been doing it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    OT - re ballgate wtf. When are they gonna stop crying? There's gotta be a danger of sea levels rising if it goes on much longer. Only a game ffs.

    Conversely, it’s hillarious to watch the dirty cheating convicts bawling their eyes out, in a vain and misguided attempt to attract some public sympathy for being dirty cheating convicts.

    Their only regret is that they got caught, this was a premeditated and organised attempt to cheat, which just isn’t cricket. Maybe they’re just trying keep attention on themselves to distract from how many more of their colleagues were involved.
    I have lost even more respect for them. Warner is supposed to be a toughie, now he is turning the water works on...pathetic.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    OT - re ballgate wtf. When are they gonna stop crying? There's gotta be a danger of sea levels rising if it goes on much longer. Only a game ffs.

    Conversely, it’s hillarious to watch the dirty cheating convicts bawling their eyes out, in a vain and misguided attempt to attract some public sympathy for being dirty cheating convicts.

    Their only regret is that they got caught, this was a premeditated and organised attempt to cheat, which just isn’t cricket. Maybe they’re just trying keep attention on themselves to distract from how many more of their colleagues were involved.
    I have lost even more respect for them. Warner is supposed to be a toughie, now he is turning the water works on...pathetic.
    But that is the way the world works these days - it is all about feelings. Gone are the days of reason, argument and logic.

    Feelings trump everything. Even evidence half the time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    edited March 31

    Roger said:

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    It certainly doesn't look like Sir Alan knocked it up on his own Amstrad PC
    He chose an unfortunate day to air it.

    It's a Private Eye cover and with a different headline could as easily have been directed at Corbyn's critics.
    Private Eye would have photoshopped people complaining about antisemitism in the Labour Party into a car with Hitler?

    Really?
    Quick Google image search suggests it started with Lord Sugar last night. It’s almost certainly not a PE cover.

    1.4k retweets of it so far, hope they’ve all got lawyers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    Hmmmmm......

    The UK's top police officer has blamed social media for normalising violence and leading more children to commit stabbings and murders.

    Met Police commissioner Cressida Dick told The Times social media sites "rev people up" and make street violence "more likely".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43603080

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,570

    This doesn’t seem to have got much publicity, but perhaps Cambridge Analytica didn’t use “stolen” data after all...

    In the document, Global Science Research, Mr Kogan’s company, outlined terms and conditions that asked users for permission to collect information, including their likes and status updates as well as those of their Facebook friends. The terms stated that the company would have the right to “edit, copy, disseminate, publish, transfer, append or merge with other databases, sell, license . . . and archive your contribution and data”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6ef3766a-3368-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03

    Cambridge Analytica was undone by its CEO boasting of swaying elections, rather than by its actual actions.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,138
    On the scale of bad things to do, ball-tampering in a cricket match, while clearly wrong, is really not that awful. No one dies, no one is hurt.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383

    On the scale of bad things to do, ball-tampering in a cricket match, while clearly wrong, is really not that awful. No one dies, no one is hurt.

    Nobody told David Warner this...he plays the game like it is life and death.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,138

    On the scale of bad things to do, ball-tampering in a cricket match, while clearly wrong, is really not that awful. No one dies, no one is hurt.

    Nobody told David Warner this...he plays the game like it is life and death.
    I clearly have some defect because I can’t get that worked up about any sporting event.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,219
    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    OT - re ballgate wtf. When are they gonna stop crying? There's gotta be a danger of sea levels rising if it goes on much longer. Only a game ffs.

    Conversely, it’s hillarious to watch the dirty cheating convicts bawling their eyes out, in a vain and misguided attempt to attract some public sympathy for being dirty cheating convicts.

    Their only regret is that they got caught, this was a premeditated and organised attempt to cheat, which just isn’t cricket. Maybe they’re just trying keep attention on themselves to distract from how many more of their colleagues were involved.
    Lol - I don't disagree with a word of it.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,219

    Hmmmmm......

    The UK's top police officer has blamed social media for normalising violence and leading more children to commit stabbings and murders.

    Met Police commissioner Cressida Dick told The Times social media sites "rev people up" and make street violence "more likely".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43603080

    I get a bit bored of the way no-one gets blamed any more for anything - always the blame is shifted elsewhere. Hows about taking a bit of personal responsibility for things.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    felix said:

    Hmmmmm......

    The UK's top police officer has blamed social media for normalising violence and leading more children to commit stabbings and murders.

    Met Police commissioner Cressida Dick told The Times social media sites "rev people up" and make street violence "more likely".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43603080

    I get a bit bored of the way no-one gets blamed any more for anything - always the blame is shifted elsewhere. Hows about taking a bit of personal responsibility for things.
    We can't have that...it is all Facebook and Twitters fault.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445

    On the scale of bad things to do, ball-tampering in a cricket match, while clearly wrong, is really not that awful. No one dies, no one is hurt.

    Apart from those who did it, who have lost their jobs and a large sum of money each.

    Serves them right, however.

    I can't bluntly get worked up about them sandpapering the ball, because that's common. Where Smith and Warner's defence comes apart is that they bullied the most junior member of the team into doing it and then lied to try and cover up what they were doing while pretending they were 'fessing up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445
    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    It certainly doesn't look like Sir Alan knocked it up on his own Amstrad PC
    He chose an unfortunate day to air it.

    It's a Private Eye cover and with a different headline could as easily have been directed at Corbyn's critics.
    Private Eye would have photoshopped people complaining about antisemitism in the Labour Party into a car with Hitler?

    Really?
    Quick Google image search suggests it started with Lord Sugar last night. It’s almost certainly not a PE cover.

    1.4k retweets of it so far, hope they’ve all got lawyers.
    Can't see how it's defamation. Nobody is saying that is actually Corbyn in the car. So it comes under satire and after recent revelations about Corbyn's past it would surely be considered fair comment.

    I do hope Corbyn sues though. Watching the entirety of his past links with war criminals, Holocaust deniers, mafia governments and Nazi terrorists being thrown at him in a privileged forum would be funnier than Sunil's attempts to show The Last Jedi is a good film.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    rcs1000 said:

    This doesn’t seem to have got much publicity, but perhaps Cambridge Analytica didn’t use “stolen” data after all...

    In the document, Global Science Research, Mr Kogan’s company, outlined terms and conditions that asked users for permission to collect information, including their likes and status updates as well as those of their Facebook friends. The terms stated that the company would have the right to “edit, copy, disseminate, publish, transfer, append or merge with other databases, sell, license . . . and archive your contribution and data”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6ef3766a-3368-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03

    Cambridge Analytica was undone by its CEO boasting of swaying elections, rather than by its actual actions.
    Indeed so, yet meanwhile Facebook’s reputation (and share price) is heading the same way as Jeremy Corbyn’s among the Jewish community, as the mask slips and a wider public see them for what they really are.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,731
    Morning folks. Not realy like Spring, is it? At least round here.

    The difficulty with alternative leaders sitting back and waiting is 5that while they do, they get interested in something else entirely and go off and do it. Cf D. Milliband.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    It certainly doesn't look like Sir Alan knocked it up on his own Amstrad PC
    He chose an unfortunate day to air it.

    It's a Private Eye cover and with a different headline could as easily have been directed at Corbyn's critics.
    Private Eye would have photoshopped people complaining about antisemitism in the Labour Party into a car with Hitler?

    Really?
    Quick Google image search suggests it started with Lord Sugar last night. It’s almost certainly not a PE cover.

    1.4k retweets of it so far, hope they’ve all got lawyers.
    Can't see how it's defamation. Nobody is saying that is actually Corbyn in the car. So it comes under satire and after recent revelations about Corbyn's past it would surely be considered fair comment.

    I do hope Corbyn sues though. Watching the entirety of his past links with war criminals, Holocaust deniers, mafia governments and Nazi terrorists being thrown at him in a privileged forum would be funnier than Sunil's attempts to show The Last Jedi is a good film.
    Well last night’s moderator on here suggested it was close to the line, but no doubt he or she is the cautious sort when it comes to these things.

    IANAL, but would find it hillarious if Corbyn took the bait and sued Sugar over it- it would keep the story running for months, and have Sugar’s very expensive team of Silks showing every piece of the reams of evidence about Labour and antisemitism to the court.

    Meanwhile Comrade Corbyn’s Fan club would be saying that the courts are run by the Jews so it was always going to find against him.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,799
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    It certainly doesn't look like Sir Alan knocked it up on his own Amstrad PC
    He chose an unfortunate day to air it.

    It's a Private Eye cover and with a different headline could as easily have been directed at Corbyn's critics.
    Private Eye would have photoshopped people complaining about antisemitism in the Labour Party into a car with Hitler?

    Really?
    Quick Google image search suggests it started with Lord Sugar last night. It’s almost certainly not a PE cover.

    1.4k retweets of it so far, hope they’ve all got lawyers.
    Can't see how it's defamation. Nobody is saying that is actually Corbyn in the car. So it comes under satire and after recent revelations about Corbyn's past it would surely be considered fair comment.

    I do hope Corbyn sues though. Watching the entirety of his past links with war criminals, Holocaust deniers, mafia governments and Nazi terrorists being thrown at him in a privileged forum would be funnier than Sunil's attempts to show The Last Jedi is a good film.
    Well last night’s moderator on here suggested it was close to the line, but no doubt he or she is the cautious sort when it comes to these things.

    IANAL, but would find it hillarious if Corbyn took the bait and sued Sugar over it- it would keep the story running for months, and have Sugar’s very expensive team of Silks showing every piece of the reams of evidence about Labour and antisemitism to the court.

    Meanwhile Comrade Corbyn’s Fan club would be saying that the courts are run by the Jews so it was always going to find against him.
    We will see what happens - but I suspect most people are not going to look at Jeremy Corbyn and think... yes he’s like Hitler, that’s a reasonable comparison.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 150
    Good article.

    What should Labour moderates do? First get some ideas. The majority of Labour's 570,000 members are not hard left ex SWP types but Corbyn won two leadership elections by having a vision of what a Corbyn government could be like that excited a majority of the membership. I started the 2015 leadership election as a Burnham supporter, but he only offered reheated Milibandism and the 2015 GE offer of "austerity but we'll be nicer about it" was an amorphous thing to sell on the doorstep. 2017 GE's pitch was a lot simpler to understand, both by the electorate and the activists.

    If you go onto the Progress website you'll see moaning about Brexit, moaning about Corbyn, moaning about Corbyn's policy on Brexit but very little sense of what a more centrist Labour party would do in Government. Until they come up with something that makes the membership want to campaign for then they only have the three choices that David's identified.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,647
    edited March 31
    A thoughtful lead, although David overlooks the career dimension to politicians' thinking. Whilst we and the media as analyst/spectators look at this principally as politics, many of the actors involved will be thinking principally about ambition.

    David used the phrase "only eight years", yet someone's lifetime ambitions of world-kingship can go from strong to weak in much less time than that (as that ambition's originator has himself amply demonstrated). That the chicken coup was so badly and so obviously mismanaged is surely in large part due to its having had the 'wrong' motivations (insofar as the public/politics are concerned).

    Seeing the prospect of government office slipping by does mean that we cannot rely on everyone involved to think and act rationally. Which may well be why some of them are once again stirring up internal dissent when the likelihood is that this will harm their party's prospects without doing anything to help point it in a more amenable direction.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,138
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This doesn’t seem to have got much publicity, but perhaps Cambridge Analytica didn’t use “stolen” data after all...

    In the document, Global Science Research, Mr Kogan’s company, outlined terms and conditions that asked users for permission to collect information, including their likes and status updates as well as those of their Facebook friends. The terms stated that the company would have the right to “edit, copy, disseminate, publish, transfer, append or merge with other databases, sell, license . . . and archive your contribution and data”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6ef3766a-3368-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03

    Cambridge Analytica was undone by its CEO boasting of swaying elections, rather than by its actual actions.
    Indeed so, yet meanwhile Facebook’s reputation (and share price) is heading the same way as Jeremy Corbyn’s among the Jewish community, as the mask slips and a wider public see them for what they really are.
    It looks like a buying opportunity beckons, probably for both Facebook and Jeremy Corbyn.

    *not financial advice, obviously*
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445
    edited March 31
    rkrkrk said:

    We will see what happens - but I suspect most people are not going to look at Jeremy Corbyn and think... yes he’s like Hitler, that’s a reasonable comparison.

    That's not the point being made though. Corbyn's excuse is that he hasn't seen the things he was commenting on/about, so the implication is that he's been accidentally wandering into a bunch of neo-Nazis 'without realising it' for ever. (Of course Hitler died before Corbyn was born, so that's a further way it's not plausible.)

    Should be noted however that it's not only the faithful who are aggrieved. Even John Mann thought it was a step too far:

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    edited March 31
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    It certainly doesn't look like Sir Alan knocked it up on his own Amstrad PC
    He chose an unfortunate day to air it.

    It's a Private Eye cover and with a different headline could as easily have been directed at Corbyn's critics.
    Private Eye would have photoshopped people complaining about antisemitism in the Labour Party into a car with Hitler?

    Really?
    Quick Google image search suggests it started with Lord Sugar last night. It’s almost certainly not a PE cover.

    1.4k retweets of it so far, hope they’ve all got lawyers.
    Can't see how it's defamation. Nobody is saying that is actually Corbyn in the car. So it comes under satire and after recent revelations about Corbyn's past it would surely be considered fair comment.

    I do hope Corbyn sues though. Watching the entirety of his past links with war criminals, Holocaust deniers, mafia governments and Nazi terrorists being thrown at him in a privileged forum would be funnier than Sunil's attempts to show The Last Jedi is a good film.
    Well last night’s moderator on here suggested it was close to the line, but no doubt he or she is the cautious sort when it comes to these things.

    IANAL, but would find it hillarious if Corbyn took the bait and sued Sugar over it- it would keep the story running for months, and have Sugar’s very expensive team of Silks showing every piece of the reams of evidence about Labour and antisemitism to the court.

    Meanwhile Comrade Corbyn’s Fan club would be saying that the courts are run by the Jews so it was always going to find against him.
    We will see what happens - but I suspect most people are not going to look at Jeremy Corbyn and think... yes he’s like Hitler, that’s a reasonable comparison.
    But it’s not saying he’s like Hitler, rather it’s taking to the point of absurdity the fact that Corbyn has been sitting next to a lot of antisemites - but that he doesn’t seem to care about too much about their racism because he thinks they’re otherwise good people.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,833
    Good morning, everyone.

    King Cole, indeed not, it's very dark round here.

    Mr. Herdson, good article. However, I do think a new party stands far better chance than most here assume. I still suspect it won't happen, but, if it did:
    1) if every non-mental Labour MP defected, it'd automatically be the Party of Opposition. That brings with it short money exceeding all other parties, and guaranteed equal media coverage with the party of government come election time. It would relegate Jezbollah to the third party position.

    2) the unions seem to be less than enthused with Labour. They could jump ship, taking the money and historic link with them, perhaps also calling in whatever debt the People's Party of Jezziah owes.

    3) as you say, people are crying out for a new party. The Conservatives have recently done a cracking job on Russia but otherwise are stuck in a lacklustre limbo, and the Labour Party has been captured by the far left. There's a vast yawning chasm waiting to be filled in the centre ground.

    4) other new parties elsewhere have stormed to victory. En Marche and Five Star are the most obvious options. The argument here is that FPTP prevents this recurring, but I don't believe that. It's an excuse. Starting from zero, the system makes things very hard. But starting from a theoretical 172 MPs, give or take, is entirely different. And, if the split happened now, the Labour-But-Not-Insane Party will have years of Party of the Opposition status to cement their status as the government-in-waiting.

    5) election debates are seen as critical now. It seems likely there would be a three way debate (Conservative, New Labour, Jeremy's Communist Collective). By default, that makes the New SDP look the best, because the Conservatives will look a bit right, Corbyn will look very left, and the breakaway party will look like the sensible compromise, benefiting from both the novelty of being a fresh option, as well as the natural psychological bias people have to favour the centre option (Lib Dems benefited from this in 2010).

    6) it could destroy the Corbyn anchor effect. I've said before, repeatedly, that Corbyn's an anchor for both main parties. On his side he has blindly loyal tribalists and, more importantly, his own Cult of far left nutcases. That means anyone worried about the prospect of his leadership has to back the blues. But if Not New Labour take over the mantle of leftiness and get significant polling, more sensible left people will jump their way. And then rightwingers (well, soft-right) may well decide the Conservatives need a break from government and the new party is a bit Blairish, and jump that way too.

    It's an opportunity. But it won't happen. Labour MPs will grumble, some quietly, some loudly, and do nothing, boiling slowly. Their loyalty to their party brand will exceed their courage, or their repugnance at what's being done to it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445
    edited March 31
    DM_Andy said:

    If you go onto the Progress website you'll see moaning about Brexit, moaning about Corbyn, moaning about Corbyn's policy on Brexit but very little sense of what a more centrist Labour party would do in Government. Until they come up with something that makes the membership want to campaign for then they only have the three choices that David's identified.

    It's the same with Labour Uncut. They're full of empty slogans and angry comments - often very good angry comments - but no actual policy ideas. I think the issue may be that New Labour was essentially a fixed political programme that was partially carried out, wasn't particularly successful and left everyone saying 'ummm...now what?' I think a strong and competent opposition could have won in 2005, as by then Labour for all their talk of 'reinvention' from the likes of Sion Simon were floundering and basically shouting and screaming abuse instead of running the country (cf the Crewe and Nantwich by-election or the 2008 London election).

    Where your post does fall down somewhat is that Corbyn's ideas while they may have been simple and popular were not only ludicrous and contradictory but in many places actively dishonest - even more so than Blair's infamous 2001 manifesto, which continues to bedevil student funding. Corbyn and Labour were very fortunate that May's pitch was no more credible (even if the country isn't).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger, as an adman, surely you have to admit - that image of Corbyn is as powerful a single political image as we have seen in this country since Miliband in Salmond's pocket? Being mocked about the Nazi company you keep doesn't come much more visceral than that. (It's a perfect bit of photoshopping. That image of Corbyn looking a bit WTF??? has been very carefully chosen. A professional hit, would you say?)

    It certainly doesn't look like Sir Alan knocked it up on his own Amstrad PC
    He chose an unfortunate day to air it.

    It's a Private Eye cover and with a different headline could as easily have been directed at Corbyn's critics.
    Private Eye would have photoshopped people complaining about antisemitism in the Labour Party into a car with Hitler?

    Really?
    Quick Google image search suggests it started with Lord Sugar last night. It’s almost certainly not a PE cover.

    1.4k retweets of it so far, hope they’ve all got lawyers.
    Can't see how it's defamation. Nobody is saying that is actually Corbyn in the car. So it comes under satire and after recent revelations about Corbyn's past it would surely be considered fair comment.

    I do hope Corbyn sues though. Watching the entirety of his past links with war criminals, Holocaust deniers, mafia governments and Nazi terrorists being thrown at him in a privileged forum would be funnier than Sunil's attempts to show The Last Jedi is a good film.
    Well last night’s moderator on here suggested it was close to the line, but no doubt he or she is the cautious sort when it comes to these things.

    IANAL, but would find it hillarious if Corbyn took the bait and sued Sugar over it- it would keep the story running for months, and have Sugar’s very expensive team of Silks showing every piece of the reams of evidence about Labour and antisemitism to the court.

    Meanwhile Comrade Corbyn’s Fan club would be saying that the courts are run by the Jews so it was always going to find against him.
    We will see what happens - but I suspect most people are not going to look at Jeremy Corbyn and think... yes he’s like Hitler, that’s a reasonable comparison.
    But it’s not saying he’s like Hitler, rather it’s taking to the point of absurdity the fact that Corbyn has been sitting next to a lot of antisemites - but that he doesn’t seem to care about too much their racism because he thinks they’re otherwise good people.
    Given he couldnt find a seat on that half empty virgin train, it isn’t unrealistic....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145
    Doing nothing is pretty well a council of despair for those who cannot reconcile themselves to what Labour has become, unless all they are interested in is colllecting their salaries until they retire or are deselected. Staying and actively opposing Corbyn will merely hasten the latter.

    Absent any real leadership or coherent platform, it does seem a quite likely fate.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    I am still chuckling at the thought of wee Timmy going off the deep end after being called a classic Tory boy by a maomentumer on twitter.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,949
    There is a fourth option, learn, change and adapt, which applies to both sides and is already happening.

    The right of Labour has a lot to learn from the success of Corbyn , both in terms of raw appeal and organisation .

    Equally the left has much to learn from the right in terms of forming practical policies and electoral success.

    When you look at how right wingers have started to campaign and left wingers are thinking about policy as demonstrated by the manifesto, this process is clearly already happening .

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,700
    felix said:

    Hmmmmm......

    The UK's top police officer has blamed social media for normalising violence and leading more children to commit stabbings and murders.

    Met Police commissioner Cressida Dick told The Times social media sites "rev people up" and make street violence "more likely".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43603080

    I get a bit bored of the way no-one gets blamed any more for anything - always the blame is shifted elsewhere. Hows about taking a bit of personal responsibility for things.
    Cressida Dick can hardly advocate taking personal responsibility!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,647

    Good morning, everyone.

    King Cole, indeed not, it's very dark round here.

    Mr. Herdson, good article. However, I do think a new party stands far better chance than most here assume. I still suspect it won't happen, but, if it did:
    1) if every non-mental Labour MP defected, it'd automatically be the Party of Opposition. That brings with it short money exceeding all other parties, and guaranteed equal media coverage with the party of government come election time. It would relegate Jezbollah to the third party position.

    2) the unions seem to be less than enthused with Labour. They could jump ship, taking the money and historic link with them, perhaps also calling in whatever debt the People's Party of Jezziah owes.

    3) as you say, people are crying out for a new party. The Conservatives have recently done a cracking job on Russia but otherwise are stuck in a lacklustre limbo, and the Labour Party has been captured by the far left. There's a vast yawning chasm waiting to be filled in the centre ground.

    4) other new parties elsewhere have stormed to victory. En Marche and Five Star are the most obvious options. The argument here is that FPTP prevents this recurring, but I don't believe that. It's an excuse. Starting from zero, the system makes things very hard. But starting from a theoretical 172 MPs, give or take, is entirely different. And, if the split happened now, the Labour-But-Not-Insane Party will have years of Party of the Opposition status to cement their status as the government-in-waiting.

    5) election debates are seen as critical now. It seems likely there would be a three way debate (Conservative, New Labour, Jeremy's Communist Collective). By default, that makes the New SDP look the best, because the Conservatives will look a bit right, Corbyn will look very left, and the breakaway party will look like the sensible compromise, benefiting from both the novelty of being a fresh option, as well as the natural psychological bias people have to favour the centre option (Lib Dems benefited from this in 2010).

    6) it could destroy the Corbyn anchor effect. (snip)

    It's an opportunity. But it won't happen. Labour MPs will grumble, some quietly, some loudly, and do nothing, boiling slowly. Their loyalty to their party brand will exceed their courage, or their repugnance at what's being done to it.

    The problem is the tribal loyalty (of voters, of funders, and of the politicians themselves) to the Labour label. Last time there was some serious work done on whether or not a PLP breakaway could somehow take the name with them, which drew a blank. Had they come up with a viable way to do this I believe events could have run very differently.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445
    Sandpit said:

    But it’s not saying he’s like Hitler, rather it’s taking to the point of absurdity the fact that Corbyn has been sitting next to a lot of antisemites - but that he doesn’t seem to care about too much about their racism because he thinks they’re otherwise good people.

    Certainly a Hitler/Eisen comparison would be fair enough, and Corbyn was more than happy to share a platform with him, subsequently claiming with precisely zero plausibility that Eisen wasn't a Holocaust denier at the time (which he certainly was) and anyway Corbyn didn't know it and it wasn't about the Jews...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,799
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:



    We will see what happens - but I suspect most people are not going to look at Jeremy Corbyn and think... yes he’s like Hitler, that’s a reasonable comparison.

    But it’s not saying he’s like Hitler, rather it’s taking to the point of absurdity the fact that Corbyn has been sitting next to a lot of antisemites - but that he doesn’t seem to care about too much about their racism because he thinks they’re otherwise good people.
    You are kidding yourself if you think that’s what most people will see.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,647
    Jonathan said:

    There is a fourth option, learn, change and adapt, which applies to both sides and is already happening.

    The right of Labour has a lot to learn from the success of Corbyn , both in terms of raw appeal and organisation .

    Equally the left has much to learn from the right in terms of forming practical policies and electoral success.

    When you look at how right wingers have started to campaign and left wingers are thinking about policy as demonstrated by the manifesto, this process is clearly already happening .

    Possibly, although never underestimate the strength of factional animosity (and the clash of personal ambitions) within a party like Labour. Those MPs who just signed a letter against their own party leadership clearly hadn't read your script.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445
    edited March 31
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:



    We will see what happens - but I suspect most people are not going to look at Jeremy Corbyn and think... yes he’s like Hitler, that’s a reasonable comparison.

    But it’s not saying he’s like Hitler, rather it’s taking to the point of absurdity the fact that Corbyn has been sitting next to a lot of antisemites - but that he doesn’t seem to care about too much about their racism because he thinks they’re otherwise good people.
    You are kidding yourself if you think that’s what most people will see.
    Whether it's what people will *see* is irrelevant. Popular wisdom can be wrong. Both Suez and Iraq were actually supported at the time by a majority of the population although the noisy opposing minority got all the headlines. As the latter were later proven correct, it's now hard to find people who will admit to supporting the latter (Suez happened so long ago most people actively involved are dead).

    The point is it's a fair comment in light of what's *happened*.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,949
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    There is a fourth option, learn, change and adapt, which applies to both sides and is already happening.

    The right of Labour has a lot to learn from the success of Corbyn , both in terms of raw appeal and organisation .

    Equally the left has much to learn from the right in terms of forming practical policies and electoral success.

    When you look at how right wingers have started to campaign and left wingers are thinking about policy as demonstrated by the manifesto, this process is clearly already happening .

    Possibly, although never underestimate the strength of factional animosity (and the clash of personal ambitions) within a party like Labour. Those MPs who just signed a letter against their own party leadership clearly hadn't read your script.
    The two wings need each other, always have, always will. Both sides need to rediscover that fact.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033

    On the scale of bad things to do, ball-tampering in a cricket match, while clearly wrong, is really not that awful. No one dies, no one is hurt.

    Amusing to watch the Aussies crying that they've been caught though
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357

    felix said:

    Hmmmmm......

    The UK's top police officer has blamed social media for normalising violence and leading more children to commit stabbings and murders.

    Met Police commissioner Cressida Dick told The Times social media sites "rev people up" and make street violence "more likely".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43603080

    I get a bit bored of the way no-one gets blamed any more for anything - always the blame is shifted elsewhere. Hows about taking a bit of personal responsibility for things.
    Cressida Dick can hardly advocate taking personal responsibility!
    :+1:Excellent point!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,833
    Probably linked to already but some interesting numbers here. Only half of Labour members think the UK is a force for good:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445
    edited March 31

    felix said:

    Hmmmmm......

    The UK's top police officer has blamed social media for normalising violence and leading more children to commit stabbings and murders.

    Met Police commissioner Cressida Dick told The Times social media sites "rev people up" and make street violence "more likely".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43603080

    I get a bit bored of the way no-one gets blamed any more for anything - always the blame is shifted elsewhere. Hows about taking a bit of personal responsibility for things.
    Cressida Dick can hardly advocate taking personal responsibility!
    I am baffled that she is still employed by the Met, never mind that somehow despite her controversial, even disastrous career of incompetence and failure - even aside from the death of de Menezes - she has somehow become the Commissioner.

    But then, Amanda Spielman's tenure as Head of Ofqual was an utter fiasco that I think will end in the courts this summer, and she's now free to screw up OFSTED as well (which she has with skill, speed and élan).

    So clearly intelligence, integrity and administrative competence are not required for top quango posts in London.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,149
    There's a 4th path: what I would call the "Beacon" strategy

    It would need to be a leading figure in the party to stand up publicly and frequently for an alternatively vision of what Labour stands.

    It's not so much a question of policy as of values. Acting as an independent in deed but not resigning the whip.

    It will be deeply unpleasant for them as an individual, and may not achieve much, but will help to preserve the memory - and the future potential - that Labour could be something more.

    Otherwise the issue is that, the longer the current malaise lasts, the more the nature of the MP pool and the membership changes and the more entrenched their world view becomes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    edited March 31

    Probably linked to already but some interesting numbers here. Only half of Labour members think the UK is a force for good:
    twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/979839679343288321

    I would say very line with corbyns world view....the southam observers of this world is now the minority view within the labour party.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:



    We will see what happens - but I suspect most people are not going to look at Jeremy Corbyn and think... yes he’s like Hitler, that’s a reasonable comparison.

    But it’s not saying he’s like Hitler, rather it’s taking to the point of absurdity the fact that Corbyn has been sitting next to a lot of antisemites - but that he doesn’t seem to care about too much about their racism because he thinks they’re otherwise good people.
    You are kidding yourself if you think that’s what most people will see.
    That’s what most people are seeing from Labour’s behaviour in the past couple of weeks.

    Corbyn was out campaigning in Milton Keynes on Thursday, for councillor Margaret Burke.
    https://www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/former-nazi-wins-a-labour-council-seat-1-3826439
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,149
    Roger said:

    14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

    Interesting wording "no serious threat reported to any Israeli"

    Was it reported to someone else?

    How do you define "serious"?

    Whatever you think of the government of Israel they don't make a habit of killing people for laughs - they just are more tolerant of civilian causalities in achieving their objectives than we are. (And Hamas frequently uses civilians as a human shield).

    Perhaps you have a link with more detail?
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 150
    ydoethur said:

    Where your post does fall down somewhat is that Corbyn's ideas while they may have been simple and popular were not only ludicrous and contradictory but in many places actively dishonest - even more so than Blair's infamous 2001 manifesto, which continues to bedevil student funding. Corbyn and Labour were very fortunate that May's pitch was no more credible (even if the country isn't).

    For the purposes of whether or not Corbyn remains leader it only matters that a) the majority of Labour Party members think that the manifesto is 'good' and workable and b) they believe that that policy programme could win a General Election. I don't think (b) was satisfied in 2016 but Owen Smith didn't persuade enough members that he offered a better chance of winning the next election.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,647
    Charles said:

    There's a 4th path: what I would call the "Beacon" strategy

    It would need to be a leading figure in the party to stand up publicly and frequently for an alternatively vision of what Labour stands.

    It's not so much a question of policy as of values. Acting as an independent in deed but not resigning the whip.

    It will be deeply unpleasant for them as an individual, and may not achieve much, but will help to preserve the memory - and the future potential - that Labour could be something more.

    Otherwise the issue is that, the longer the current malaise lasts, the more the nature of the MP pool and the membership changes and the more entrenched their world view becomes.

    Good post - you highlight the central problem of the so-called moderates (and indeed for many social democrats around the world) of failing to articulate a credible alternative model to the oligarchic form of capitalism we have stumbled into. Lack of vision was the reason Corbyn was able to stroll past Cooper, Burnham and Kendall in the first place.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,073
    At some point the mass deselections will come. That’s when a new party will be created. Meanwhile, a party where only 50% of the membership believes the UK is a force for good is destined to remain in opposition. You can just imagine Corbyn being asked about members’ views on the UK and the prevarication in his answer. It’s an absolute gift for the Tories. A disaster for the country.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,731
    edited March 31
    Pulpstar said:

    On the scale of bad things to do, ball-tampering in a cricket match, while clearly wrong, is really not that awful. No one dies, no one is hurt.

    Amusing to watch the Aussies crying that they've been caught though
    I’m sorry for Steve Smith’s father. Decent bloke, professor. How can he hold his head up in the bar/common room?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,836

    Probably linked to already but some interesting numbers here. Only half of Labour members think the UK is a force for good:

    That's why they want to change the government Carrie
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,647

    At some point the mass deselections will come. That’s when a new party will be created. Meanwhile, a party where only 50% of the membership believes the UK is a force for good is destined to remain in opposition. You can just imagine Corbyn being asked about members’ views on the UK and the prevarication in his answer. It’s an absolute gift for the Tories. A disaster for the country.

    Why 'mass'? If they are clever they will pick them off one at a time.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542

    Probably linked to already but some interesting numbers here. Only half of Labour members think the UK is a force for good:
    twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/979839679343288321

    I would say very line with corbyns world view....the southam observers of this world is now the minority view within the labour party.
    But I suspect the Mr SO's world view is far closer to that of the majority of Labour voters - and it is voters that parties need to gain power
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,802
    DM_Andy said:

    Good article.

    What should Labour moderates do? First get some ideas. The majority of Labour's 570,000 members are not hard left ex SWP types but Corbyn won two leadership elections by having a vision of what a Corbyn government could be like that excited a majority of the membership. I started the 2015 leadership election as a Burnham supporter, but he only offered reheated Milibandism and the 2015 GE offer of "austerity but we'll be nicer about it" was an amorphous thing to sell on the doorstep. 2017 GE's pitch was a lot simpler to understand, both by the electorate and the activists.

    If you go onto the Progress website you'll see moaning about Brexit, moaning about Corbyn, moaning about Corbyn's policy on Brexit but very little sense of what a more centrist Labour party would do in Government. Until they come up with something that makes the membership want to campaign for then they only have the three choices that David's identified.

    They have been running with the idea of some form of identity card.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,802

    Hmmmmm......

    The UK's top police officer has blamed social media for normalising violence and leading more children to commit stabbings and murders.

    Met Police commissioner Cressida Dick told The Times social media sites "rev people up" and make street violence "more likely".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43603080

    In the 1950's, there was a panic about imported American comics and the effects they had on youth.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    IanB2 said:

    At some point the mass deselections will come. That’s when a new party will be created. Meanwhile, a party where only 50% of the membership believes the UK is a force for good is destined to remain in opposition. You can just imagine Corbyn being asked about members’ views on the UK and the prevarication in his answer. It’s an absolute gift for the Tories. A disaster for the country.

    Why 'mass'? If they are clever they will pick them off one at a time.
    The crunch point is going to be the boundary changes, which the Corbynites are going to be in favour of precisely because it’s the enabler for compulsory reselections of nearly every MP.

    If the sensible Lab MPs are going to jump, they need to do it quickly and in numbers such that they become the Opposition.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    Roger said:

    Probably linked to already but some interesting numbers here. Only half of Labour members think the UK is a force for good:

    That's why they want to change the government Carrie
    Alternatively, they could all go live in Sweden?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,833
    Mr. Observer, if there were a new Labour Party founded by a major split from Corbyn's Socialists, would you join it, or at least consider doing so?

    Curious to know what someone on the left, but who is clearly not enamoured with the Supreme Leader, thinks of such a thing.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,802

    felix said:

    Hmmmmm......

    The UK's top police officer has blamed social media for normalising violence and leading more children to commit stabbings and murders.

    Met Police commissioner Cressida Dick told The Times social media sites "rev people up" and make street violence "more likely".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43603080

    I get a bit bored of the way no-one gets blamed any more for anything - always the blame is shifted elsewhere. Hows about taking a bit of personal responsibility for things.
    Cressida Dick can hardly advocate taking personal responsibility!
    :+1:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445

    Hmmmmm......

    The UK's top police officer has blamed social media for normalising violence and leading more children to commit stabbings and murders.

    Met Police commissioner Cressida Dick told The Times social media sites "rev people up" and make street violence "more likely".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43603080

    In the 1950's, there was a panic about imported American comics and the effects they had on youth.
    Wasn't there a panic about video games in the early 1990s as well, with the Sun urging people to burn 'video nasties?'
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,949

    At some point the mass deselections will come. That’s when a new party will be created. Meanwhile, a party where only 50% of the membership believes the UK is a force for good is destined to remain in opposition. You can just imagine Corbyn being asked about members’ views on the UK and the prevarication in his answer. It’s an absolute gift for the Tories. A disaster for the country.

    That 50% is a comment on Brexit.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,182

    I’m sorry for Steve Smith’s father. Decent bloke, professor. How can he hold his head up in the bar/common room?

    Are the sins of the son to be visited on the father?

    The responsibility for this sorry mess lies squarely with those who decided to cheat and not with their innocent relatives.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,802
    ydoethur said:

    Hmmmmm......

    The UK's top police officer has blamed social media for normalising violence and leading more children to commit stabbings and murders.

    Met Police commissioner Cressida Dick told The Times social media sites "rev people up" and make street violence "more likely".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43603080

    In the 1950's, there was a panic about imported American comics and the effects they had on youth.
    Wasn't there a panic about video games in the early 1990s as well, with the Sun urging people to burn 'video nasties?'
    Another decade, another panic.
This discussion has been closed.