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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So much has been happening politically and yet there’s so litt

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited April 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So much has been happening politically and yet there’s so little data for us to assess the reaction

There was a discussion last night on Twitter about the fact that we seem to be seeing so few polls at the moment and this is felt more because so much been happening and those who follow the numbers want to get a sense of whether things are having an impact.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,286
    13!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,833
    Mr. Eagles, surely Sith* levels of cognitive dissonance?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445
    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445
    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    edited April 6
    There were 8 polls last month, outside of a general election campaign which which last year began in April that does not look too unusual.

    With local elections on May 3rd we should get a few more this month too
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 654
    Can't be bothered to find out for myself but some people seemed to think it was a parody account. Apparently at one point he was expressing sympathy for the guy who broke in to the old mans house the other day.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,436
    But the reality is that all the things we get so excited about and seem so fundamentally critical to the engaged will have passed almost everyone else by and made no difference. Strangely, the unengaged seem quite content.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,700
    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    The suggestion is that this is a parody account not a genuine user.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,593
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    How can you tell?

    (To steal from Dorothy Parker, nee Rothschild)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,273
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    Oops..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    How can you tell?

    (To steal from Dorothy Parker, nee Rothschild)
    I looked at the thread underneath it when I could finally get the links to work.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445

    Can't be bothered to find out for myself but some people seemed to think it was a parody account. Apparently at one point he was expressing sympathy for the guy who broke in to the old mans house the other day.

    That's not conclusive. Maybe he's an officer with the Met in his professional life?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 787
    I womder if Andrew Gilligan has a problem with Sadiq Khan because he is a muslim mayor. He must have forgotten Khans incredibly brave and heroic policy on incresing the congestion charge for old cars. In 50 years time a film will be made to celebrate this historic decision.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/04/sadiq-khan-is-a-lousy-london-mayor-why-hasnt-anyone-noticed/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    It's been Easter. Who polls over Easter (or at least, who polls expecting an unaffected result over Easter)?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,758
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    It is a rather good one too:

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    Poe's law.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,666

    Can't be bothered to find out for myself but some people seemed to think it was a parody account. Apparently at one point he was expressing sympathy for the guy who broke in to the old mans house the other day.

    It seemed to me that his sympathy for the burglar was genuine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445
    But I doubt if any of them have an 8 foot horn on their organ...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357

    Can't be bothered to find out for myself but some people seemed to think it was a parody account. Apparently at one point he was expressing sympathy for the guy who broke in to the old mans house the other day.

    Isn’t it something of a problem, when it’s so difficult to tell the parody accounts from the genuine Corbynista?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 664

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    Poe's law.
    I had to look that up. As long as I avoid HYUFD’s posts I learn lots on PB!

    Nathan Poe wrote:

    Without a winking smiley or other blatant display of humor, it is utterly impossible to parody a Creationist in such a way that someone won't mistake for the genuine article.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,833
    Mr. Sandpit, well, quite.

    When the Leader of the Opposition appears to have strange eyesight problems when it comes to anti-Semitism and is happier snuggling up to the bloody paws of Russian bears than believing the authorities of his own country, it's no surprise some of his followers have views that border on deranged.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 935

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    Poe's law.
    The favourite refrain of the trolled
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,238
    Lucky to be seeing any action at all at his age.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,746
    Morning all :)

    "The only good poll is a deed poll" - as someone once said.

    I could change my name to Septimus Stodge and promote myself as a Dickensian character.

    On topic, we're going to have a fairly large poll to digest in four weeks time so I don't quite see the need to have a lot of polls now. In any case, those who want to will rubbish the local election results as being irrelevant and not indicative and in any case most people seem to think we're four years away from a GE so is it worth getting worried about ?

    Nominations will be out on Monday so we can see who is running where.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    "The only good poll is a deed poll" - as someone once said.

    I could change my name to Septimus Stodge and promote myself as a Dickensian character.

    On topic, we're going to have a fairly large poll to digest in four weeks time so I don't quite see the need to have a lot of polls now. In any case, those who want to will rubbish the local election results as being irrelevant and not indicative and in any case most people seem to think we're four years away from a GE so is it worth getting worried about ?

    Nominations will be out on Monday so we can see who is running where.

    Mr Stodge, we are not debased colonials. Americans run. We stand.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    Poe's law.
    The favourite refrain of the trolled
    Indeed, I wish I knew more about trolling and clickbait.

    Just imagine the extra website traffic I could generate on my threads if I did some clickbait headlines and trolling.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,273
    edited April 6
    Sandpit said:

    Can't be bothered to find out for myself but some people seemed to think it was a parody account. Apparently at one point he was expressing sympathy for the guy who broke in to the old mans house the other day.

    Isn’t it something of a problem, when it’s so difficult to tell the parody accounts from the genuine Corbynista?
    Yup, how are righties supposed to get their daily dose of outrage when they can't tell whether they should be outraged or not?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 935

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    Poe's law.
    The favourite refrain of the trolled
    Indeed, I wish I knew more about trolling and clickbait.

    Just imagine the extra website traffic I could generate on my threads if I did some clickbait headlines and trolling.
    This Single Mother's Voting System Will Amaze You! Politicians Hate Her!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,746
    ydoethur said:


    Mr Stodge, we are not debased colonials. Americans run. We stand.

    I sit corrected, sir.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,414



    Yup, how are righties going to get their daily dose of outrage when they can't tell whether they should be outraged or not?

    It's amazing how woke the PB tories are on anti-semitism and yet seem completely out of fucks to give about all the other forms of massive and entrenched prejudice that disfigure our society.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263
    Now I wish this was a spoof, but sadly is genuine.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    Poe's law.
    The favourite refrain of the trolled
    Indeed, I wish I knew more about trolling and clickbait.

    Just imagine the extra website traffic I could generate on my threads if I did some clickbait headlines and trolling.
    This Single Mother's Voting System Will Amaze You! Politicians Hate Her!
    Ooh, I like doing threads on voting systems.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,700
    Re parody accounts. Leaving that to one side, the two tweets are a year apart. That should wind up the "it's all a Tory smear" brigade -- normal users would not have noticed: someone had to search.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    Poe's law.
    The favourite refrain of the trolled
    Indeed, I wish I knew more about trolling and clickbait.

    Just imagine the extra website traffic I could generate on my threads if I did some clickbait headlines and trolling.
    Talk about putting your todger into a hornet's nest...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,746


    Indeed, I wish I knew more about trolling and clickbait.

    Just imagine the extra website traffic I could generate on my threads if I did some clickbait headlines and trolling.

    A question, what's wrong with hypocrisy ? It seems the worst crime of our age, to say one thing in one place and say another somewhere else.

    The notion of individuals trawling through Twitter to pick up any nuance of inconsistency in someone's tweets seems ludicrous but I suppose it's today's version of political dirty tricks.

    Is consistency the only virtue, to hold the same view unchanging for years ? Is this why people admire JRM because he's held the same opinion since 1832 ?

    I don't know - I've changed my mind and contradicted myself many times. Does that make me a bad person ? Perhaps.

    I've been thinking about death a lot recently. It's not healthy but it's the one thing that unites Conservatives, Liberals, Socialists, Nationalists, Anarchists, Greens, Marxists et al.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145
    The Russians appear to be making a play for Morris Dancer's sympathy:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43661258
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    Poe's law.
    The favourite refrain of the trolled
    Indeed, I wish I knew more about trolling and clickbait.

    Just imagine the extra website traffic I could generate on my threads if I did some clickbait headlines and trolling.
    Talk about putting your todger into a hornet's nest...
    I did that. Well a thread about Corbyn's todger.

    Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

    Then a few weeks later I wrote

    During PMQs, Jeremy Corbyn often displays the anguish of a man with a bumblebee trapped under his foreskin,

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/07/if-corbyn-wants-to-win-the-confidence-of-labour-mps-he-needs-to-improve-his-performance-in-the-commons/

    Then someone said I had an unhealthy obsession with Corbyn's todger, so I stopped.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,700

    Now I wish this was a spoof, but sadly is genuine.

    Have you read the linked politicshome story or just the tweet and clickbait headline? The MP was not run out of town; the motion was defeated; another was not voted on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    Poe's law.
    The favourite refrain of the trolled
    Indeed, I wish I knew more about trolling and clickbait.

    Just imagine the extra website traffic I could generate on my threads if I did some clickbait headlines and trolling.
    Talk about putting your todger into a hornet's nest...
    I did that. Well a thread about Corbyn's todger.

    Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

    Then a few weeks later I wrote

    During PMQs, Jeremy Corbyn often displays the anguish of a man with a bumblebee trapped under his foreskin,

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/07/if-corbyn-wants-to-win-the-confidence-of-labour-mps-he-needs-to-improve-his-performance-in-the-commons/

    Then someone said I had an unhealthy obsession with Corbyn's todger, so I stopped.
    At least no comments have ever been made about him putting his todger into pigs.

    (Can we take the Diane Abbott jokes as read and move straight on, please?)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,413
    Dura_Ace said:



    Yup, how are righties going to get their daily dose of outrage when they can't tell whether they should be outraged or not?

    It's amazing how woke the PB tories are on anti-semitism and yet seem completely out of fucks to give about all the other forms of massive and entrenched prejudice that disfigure our society.
    Jew hate racism does seem to be a particular problem on the left and whataboutery is no answer.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,833
    Mr. B, I saw that story. However, it follows Monaco (which apparently is run by a different firm) indicating it's going to have grid girls.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    Nigelb said:

    The Russians appear to be making a play for Morris Dancer's sympathy:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43661258

    Monaco have said the same, and Mr Dancer hates street circuits.
    https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/17572
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263

    Now I wish this was a spoof, but sadly is genuine.

    Have you read the linked politicshome story or just the tweet and clickbait headline? The MP was not run out of town; the motion was defeated; another was not voted on.
    I read Jim Pickard's take on it, it wasn't a pleasant experience for her.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 654

    Dura_Ace said:



    Yup, how are righties going to get their daily dose of outrage when they can't tell whether they should be outraged or not?

    It's amazing how woke the PB tories are on anti-semitism and yet seem completely out of fucks to give about all the other forms of massive and entrenched prejudice that disfigure our society.
    Jew hate racism does seem to be a particular problem on the left and whataboutery is no answer.
    Well considering what you said I do hate to get straight into whataboutery but according to studies it is pretty much a problem across the political parties.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145
    stodge said:


    Indeed, I wish I knew more about trolling and clickbait.

    Just imagine the extra website traffic I could generate on my threads if I did some clickbait headlines and trolling.

    A question, what's wrong with hypocrisy ? It seems the worst crime of our age, to say one thing in one place and say another somewhere else.

    The notion of individuals trawling through Twitter to pick up any nuance of inconsistency in someone's tweets seems ludicrous but I suppose it's today's version of political dirty tricks.

    Is consistency the only virtue, to hold the same view unchanging for years ? Is this why people admire JRM because he's held the same opinion since 1832 ?

    I don't know - I've changed my mind and contradicted myself many times. Does that make me a bad person ? Perhaps.

    I've been thinking about death a lot recently. It's not healthy but it's the one thing that unites Conservatives, Liberals, Socialists, Nationalists, Anarchists, Greens, Marxists et al.
    But some are keener at imposing it on their fellows than others...

    As for consistency, the Emerson and Whitman quotes spring to mind.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445

    Now I wish this was a spoof, but sadly is genuine.

    Have you read the linked politicshome story or just the tweet and clickbait headline? The MP was not run out of town; the motion was defeated; another was not voted on.
    It does say she left the meeting when the heckling became too severe.

    Apparently the motion said this:

    "when people see inequality, ecological disaster and war alongside the accumulation of unprecedented wealth, in the private hands of a few, it is reasonable that they seek out explanations".

    I have to say Bristol Labour don't come out of this looking well.

    But then in my experience they're a bunch of useless, stuck up, rude, arrogant and supremely stupid Tristrams who are unfit to run a village post office anyway.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,879
    Interesting that the EU and Japan have joined US action against China at the WTO wrt to intellectual property theft.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    Poe's law.
    The favourite refrain of the trolled
    Indeed, I wish I knew more about trolling and clickbait.

    Just imagine the extra website traffic I could generate on my threads if I did some clickbait headlines and trolling.
    Talk about putting your todger into a hornet's nest...
    I did that...
    No, really ?
    I'd quite forgotten.
    :smile:
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,238

    Now I wish this was a spoof, but sadly is genuine.

    Have you read the linked politicshome story or just the tweet and clickbait headline? The MP was not run out of town; the motion was defeated; another was not voted on.
    Nobody said she was "run out of town." Why are you denying what was never said, and how does the outcome of the two motions affect the claim that she was forced to leave the meeting?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357

    Mr. B, I saw that story. However, it follows Monaco (which apparently is run by a different firm) indicating it's going to have grid girls.

    Yes, Monaco is unique in being the only event that F1 attends, rather than promotes itself.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,413

    Dura_Ace said:



    Yup, how are righties going to get their daily dose of outrage when they can't tell whether they should be outraged or not?

    It's amazing how woke the PB tories are on anti-semitism and yet seem completely out of fucks to give about all the other forms of massive and entrenched prejudice that disfigure our society.
    Jew hate racism does seem to be a particular problem on the left and whataboutery is no answer.
    Well considering what you said I do hate to get straight into whataboutery but according to studies it is pretty much a problem across the political parties.
    But not so much with the leader which is why this is so potent for Labour.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,700
    Scott_P said:
    Ironically Dan Hodges spent five years complaining about Labour's last Jewish leader.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Now I wish this was a spoof, but sadly is genuine.

    Have you read the linked politicshome story or just the tweet and clickbait headline? The MP was not run out of town; the motion was defeated; another was not voted on.
    Nobody said she was "run out of town." Why are you denying what was never said, and how does the outcome of the two motions affect the claim that she was forced to leave the meeting?
    She couldn't be run out of town in Bristol anyway. As the locals firmly remind everyone, it's a city. :smile:
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 654
    I don't know if anyone remembers but around the time of the coup in 2016 this exact same thing happened with bad tempered CLP meetings and disagreements between members (each other) and the MP. That is this exact CLP and MP.

    I imagine this is pretty much a continuation of that, as with most things in Labour it is seen through the factions. Though I imagine a lot changed their votes because of what it was about. If it had been a different issue which wasn't at risk of being interpreted as a vote for anti-semitism it would have gone the other way.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445

    Dura_Ace said:



    Yup, how are righties going to get their daily dose of outrage when they can't tell whether they should be outraged or not?

    It's amazing how woke the PB tories are on anti-semitism and yet seem completely out of fucks to give about all the other forms of massive and entrenched prejudice that disfigure our society.
    Jew hate racism does seem to be a particular problem on the left and whataboutery is no answer.
    Well considering what you said I do hate to get straight into whataboutery but according to studies it is pretty much a problem across the political parties.
    But not so much with the leader which is why this is so potent for Labour.

    What should be really worrying Labour is that it's been running for weeks and they keep having flare-ups every time the story should be dying down.

    It's incredibly poor news management.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    ydoethur said:

    What should be really worrying Labour is that it's been running for weeks and they keep having flare-ups every time the story should be dying down.

    It's incredibly poor news management.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,066

    Scott_P said:
    Ironically Dan Hodges spent five years complaining about Labour's last Jewish leader.
    To be fair to Dan, I don't think Ed's religion was one of his complaints!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    edited April 6
    stodge said:


    Indeed, I wish I knew more about trolling and clickbait.

    Just imagine the extra website traffic I could generate on my threads if I did some clickbait headlines and trolling.

    A question, what's wrong with hypocrisy ? It seems the worst crime of our age, to say one thing in one place and say another somewhere else.

    The notion of individuals trawling through Twitter to pick up any nuance of inconsistency in someone's tweets seems ludicrous but I suppose it's today's version of political dirty tricks.

    Is consistency the only virtue, to hold the same view unchanging for years ? Is this why people admire JRM because he's held the same opinion since 1832 ?

    I don't know - I've changed my mind and contradicted myself many times. Does that make me a bad person ? Perhaps.

    I've been thinking about death a lot recently. It's not healthy but it's the one thing that unites Conservatives, Liberals, Socialists, Nationalists, Anarchists, Greens, Marxists et al.
    There’s a difference between one’s views changing over time - that happens to all of us - and saying one thing to one audience and something different to another a week later. Or preaching family values while shagging your secretary. Or saying there’s no problem with antisemitism but reinstating holocaust deniers.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 654
    We'll be moving on to the next stage of the news cycle soon enough, although to be honest in regards to the papers I think we've mostly reached a bad news threshold. Unless Corbyn himself starts doing things wrong then finding some random Labour member who is or has said something anti-semitic has limited extra value.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Yup, how are righties going to get their daily dose of outrage when they can't tell whether they should be outraged or not?

    It's amazing how woke the PB tories are on anti-semitism and yet seem completely out of fucks to give about all the other forms of massive and entrenched prejudice that disfigure our society.
    Jew hate racism does seem to be a particular problem on the left and whataboutery is no answer.
    Well considering what you said I do hate to get straight into whataboutery but according to studies it is pretty much a problem across the political parties.
    But not so much with the leader which is why this is so potent for Labour.

    What should be really worrying Labour is that it's been running for weeks and they keep having flare-ups every time the story should be dying down.

    It's incredibly poor news management.
    Yep. Today is also the closing date for council election nominations, I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that there’s several cases being held back by the press, timed to come out when they can no longer be replaced as candidates.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,714
    Maybe they'll be some polls for the Sunday papers?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263
    What we really need is a poll from Gold Standard Survation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,758

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, that is astonishing.

    Where does Labour find these people?
    Ah, it seems it's a parody account. That's a relief.
    Poe's law.
    The favourite refrain of the trolled
    Indeed, I wish I knew more about trolling and clickbait.

    Just imagine the extra website traffic I could generate on my threads if I did some clickbait headlines and trolling.
    This Single Mother's Voting System Will Amaze You! Politicians Hate Her!
    This debonair Tory's betting tips will make you lose pounds overnight (Some mistake surely? Ed)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445

    We'll be moving on to the next stage of the news cycle soon enough, although to be honest in regards to the papers I think we've mostly reached a bad news threshold. Unless Corbyn himself starts doing things wrong then finding some random Labour member who is or has said something anti-semitic has limited extra value.

    This is a serious question.

    Don't you think - leaving aside Corbyn's own role and views, whatever they are, for the moment - that it looks bad for the party when a Labour MP is being barracked, threatened with deselection and allegedly is threatening to resign, because she attended a demonstration against racism?

    I have to say, whatever the ins and outs of the overall affair, if she does resign or otherwise vacates her seat I think that will be a disaster for Labour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Yup, how are righties going to get their daily dose of outrage when they can't tell whether they should be outraged or not?

    It's amazing how woke the PB tories are on anti-semitism and yet seem completely out of fucks to give about all the other forms of massive and entrenched prejudice that disfigure our society.
    Jew hate racism does seem to be a particular problem on the left and whataboutery is no answer.
    Well considering what you said I do hate to get straight into whataboutery but according to studies it is pretty much a problem across the political parties.
    But not so much with the leader which is why this is so potent for Labour.

    What should be really worrying Labour is that it's been running for weeks and they keep having flare-ups every time the story should be dying down.

    It's incredibly poor news management.
    Fixed.

    The idea of them managing things like, oh, say the economy or foreign policy, well... A cold sweat ensues....

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,714

    Scott_P said:
    Ironically Dan Hodges spent five years complaining about Labour's last Jewish leader.
    Wasn't that more because "Dan The Man" thought Ed Miliband was useless rather than him being Jewish?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,513

    We'll be moving on to the next stage of the news cycle soon enough, although to be honest in regards to the papers I think we've mostly reached a bad news threshold. Unless Corbyn himself starts doing things wrong then finding some random Labour member who is or has said something anti-semitic has limited extra value.

    I think this is going to run and run.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,145
    We have had, I think, one poll on how London will vote in May, even though it is (a) easily pollable and (b) 42% of all councillors up for election
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,513
    Sean_F said:

    Can't be bothered to find out for myself but some people seemed to think it was a parody account. Apparently at one point he was expressing sympathy for the guy who broke in to the old mans house the other day.

    It seemed to me that his sympathy for the burglar was genuine.
    Maybe he does work for the Met then.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,714
    edited April 6

    What we really need is a poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    With one KABOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!!!! ICM went from hero to zero on PB! :(
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ironically Dan Hodges spent five years complaining about Labour's last Jewish leader.
    To be fair to Dan, I don't think Ed's religion was one of his complaints!
    Ed Miliband is (like Hodges himself I believe) an atheist.

    Only one fully practicing Jew has ever led a major political party and that is Michael Howard. Samuel was a part-practicing Jew. Miliband was an atheist and Disraeli was officially at least an Anglican.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,746
    Sandpit said:

    There’s a difference between one’s views changing over time - that happens to all of us - and saying one thing to one audience and something different to another a week later. Or preaching family values while shagging your secretary. Or saying there’s no problem with antisemitism but reinstating holocaust deniers.

    I do find opinions and viewpoints can change very quickly under certain circumstances. Those who supported one view suddenly find themselves able to support the contrary view because it's proven to be more popular.

    I suppose that's the nuance between hypocrisy and opportunism.

    I've never got on with the notion of the "wisdom of the crowd" and I've always considered a majority is simply the largest number of people wrong about any given subject at any given time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. B, I saw that story. However, it follows Monaco (which apparently is run by a different firm) indicating it's going to have grid girls.

    Yes, Monaco is unique in being the only event that F1 attends, rather than promotes itself.
    I see Bahrain just acquired strategic significance...
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bahrain-announces-huge-shale-oil-discovery-off-its-coast-2018-04-05
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263
    GIN1138 said:

    What we really need is a poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    With one KABOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!!!! ICM went from hero to zero on PB! :(
    To be fair to Martin all of the kabooms were justified.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,700
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ironically Dan Hodges spent five years complaining about Labour's last Jewish leader.
    Wasn't that more because "Dan The Man" thought Ed Miliband was useless rather than him being Jewish?
    Of course Ed Miliband was useless -- it turns out he was moonlighting as Theresa May's policy adviser.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 654
    ydoethur said:

    We'll be moving on to the next stage of the news cycle soon enough, although to be honest in regards to the papers I think we've mostly reached a bad news threshold. Unless Corbyn himself starts doing things wrong then finding some random Labour member who is or has said something anti-semitic has limited extra value.

    This is a serious question.

    Don't you think - leaving aside Corbyn's own role and views, whatever they are, for the moment - that it looks bad for the party when a Labour MP is being barracked, threatened with deselection and allegedly is threatening to resign, because she attended a demonstration against racism?

    I have to say, whatever the ins and outs of the overall affair, if she does resign or otherwise vacates her seat I think that will be a disaster for Labour.
    As I noted in another post it has been worse than this before, with this exact MP and CLP during the coup back in 2016. The reason so many votes went that way is it because it was seen to some in a Corbyn vs MP vote, not as a vote for anti-semitism. Although the idea it could be interpreted that way probably did swing the vote when you consider how it went in 2016, with probably less favourable Corbyn members around.

    Also the idea behind the demonstration wasn't just anti racism, otherwise it wouldn't have been such a political event, as obviously we all agree racism is bad. The idea was anti racism and Corbyn is a problem (or at least part of a problem), which bit do you think the Corbyn supporters might have had a problem with?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,238

    We'll be moving on to the next stage of the news cycle soon enough, although to be honest in regards to the papers I think we've mostly reached a bad news threshold. Unless Corbyn himself starts doing things wrong then finding some random Labour member who is or has said something anti-semitic has limited extra value.

    I doubt it. This meeting has yet to happen:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/04/jeremy-corbyn-jewish-leaders-antisemitism-talks-labour

    Note in the Board of Deputies letter: "Ultimately the most important thing going forward will be action and not words." This is code for: they want a scalp - probably Livingstone permanently expelled from the party. This is not over.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,445

    ydoethur said:

    We'll be moving on to the next stage of the news cycle soon enough, although to be honest in regards to the papers I think we've mostly reached a bad news threshold. Unless Corbyn himself starts doing things wrong then finding some random Labour member who is or has said something anti-semitic has limited extra value.

    This is a serious question.

    Don't you think - leaving aside Corbyn's own role and views, whatever they are, for the moment - that it looks bad for the party when a Labour MP is being barracked, threatened with deselection and allegedly is threatening to resign, because she attended a demonstration against racism?

    I have to say, whatever the ins and outs of the overall affair, if she does resign or otherwise vacates her seat I think that will be a disaster for Labour.
    As I noted in another post it has been worse than this before, with this exact MP and CLP during the coup back in 2016. The reason so many votes went that way is it because it was seen to some in a Corbyn vs MP vote, not as a vote for anti-semitism. Although the idea it could be interpreted that way probably did swing the vote when you consider how it went in 2016, with probably less favourable Corbyn members around.

    Also the idea behind the demonstration wasn't just anti racism, otherwise it wouldn't have been such a political event, as obviously we all agree racism is bad. The idea was anti racism and Corbyn is a problem (or at least part of a problem), which bit do you think the Corbyn supporters might have had a problem with?
    Whether that's what they saw it as or not, and accepting that there may well be other factors involved (there usually are) the situation is as I summarised it. And I note you haven't actually answered my question.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,238

    ydoethur said:

    We'll be moving on to the next stage of the news cycle soon enough, although to be honest in regards to the papers I think we've mostly reached a bad news threshold. Unless Corbyn himself starts doing things wrong then finding some random Labour member who is or has said something anti-semitic has limited extra value.

    This is a serious question.

    Don't you think - leaving aside Corbyn's own role and views, whatever they are, for the moment - that it looks bad for the party when a Labour MP is being barracked, threatened with deselection and allegedly is threatening to resign, because she attended a demonstration against racism?

    I have to say, whatever the ins and outs of the overall affair, if she does resign or otherwise vacates her seat I think that will be a disaster for Labour.
    As I noted in another post it has been worse than this before, with this exact MP and CLP during the coup back in 2016. The reason so many votes went that way is it because it was seen to some in a Corbyn vs MP vote, not as a vote for anti-semitism. Although the idea it could be interpreted that way probably did swing the vote when you consider how it went in 2016, with probably less favourable Corbyn members around.

    Also the idea behind the demonstration wasn't just anti racism, otherwise it wouldn't have been such a political event, as obviously we all agree racism is bad. The idea was anti racism and Corbyn is a problem (or at least part of a problem), which bit do you think the Corbyn supporters might have had a problem with?
    So Corbynism trumps anti-racism?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,746

    GIN1138 said:

    What we really need is a poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    With one KABOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!!!! ICM went from hero to zero on PB! :(
    To be fair to Martin all of the kabooms were justified.
    Did the pollsters come up with a reason or explanation as to how some of them got 2017 so badly wrong ?

    Looking at the last polls, the likes of ICM and ComRes gave the Conservatives double figure leads while the final lead was just 2.5%. The problem seemed to be the Labour vote sharw which ended at 41% - not the 33-35% predicted by pollsters.



  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. B, I saw that story. However, it follows Monaco (which apparently is run by a different firm) indicating it's going to have grid girls.

    Yes, Monaco is unique in being the only event that F1 attends, rather than promotes itself.
    I see Bahrain just acquired strategic significance...
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bahrain-announces-huge-shale-oil-discovery-off-its-coast-2018-04-05
    Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263
    stodge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What we really need is a poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    With one KABOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!!!! ICM went from hero to zero on PB! :(
    To be fair to Martin all of the kabooms were justified.
    Did the pollsters come up with a reason or explanation as to how some of them got 2017 so badly wrong ?

    Looking at the last polls, the likes of ICM and ComRes gave the Conservatives double figure leads while the final lead was just 2.5%. The problem seemed to be the Labour vote sharw which ended at 41% - not the 33-35% predicted by pollsters.



    Yup, their samples were correct, it was when they applied their turnout/likelihood to vote filters that they got it so wrong.

    Ironically if most of the pollsters had used their 2015 methodologies in June 2017 they'd have got the election spot on or thereabouts.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,371
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. B, I saw that story. However, it follows Monaco (which apparently is run by a different firm) indicating it's going to have grid girls.

    Yes, Monaco is unique in being the only event that F1 attends, rather than promotes itself.
    I see Bahrain just acquired strategic significance...
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bahrain-announces-huge-shale-oil-discovery-off-its-coast-2018-04-05
    Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.

    I’ve said it over and over. We won’t run out of the stuff for generations. There will reach a point where the cost to extract and sell is greater than the alternatives. But nowhere near it yet. Let’s get drilling in Lancashire.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 654
    edited April 6
    @ydoethur

    Sorry wasn't intentional skipping of the question. The problem is I don't accept the premise, if she gets deselected, she likely would have been deselected regardless of the protest. Also I don't accept the idea the protest was just anti racism, clearly part of it was to do with Corbyn and his leadership of the Labour party. Edit: Obviously with the idea being a link between racism and Corbyn's leadership in some way.

    If she got deselected (or any of the other things) purely for going on this protest that would be wrong even if the protest wasn't just anti racism but obviously even more so if it was.

    @Ishmael_Z

    If you could point to where I said that?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145
    notme said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. B, I saw that story. However, it follows Monaco (which apparently is run by a different firm) indicating it's going to have grid girls.

    Yes, Monaco is unique in being the only event that F1 attends, rather than promotes itself.
    I see Bahrain just acquired strategic significance...
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bahrain-announces-huge-shale-oil-discovery-off-its-coast-2018-04-05
    Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.

    I’ve said it over and over. We won’t run out of the stuff for generations. There will reach a point where the cost to extract and sell is greater than the alternatives. But nowhere near it yet. Let’s get drilling in Lancashire.
    Agreed - though I suspect the cost to extract onshore in the UK might well already be greater than the alternatives. Worth finding out for sure, though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    notme said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. B, I saw that story. However, it follows Monaco (which apparently is run by a different firm) indicating it's going to have grid girls.

    Yes, Monaco is unique in being the only event that F1 attends, rather than promotes itself.
    I see Bahrain just acquired strategic significance...
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bahrain-announces-huge-shale-oil-discovery-off-its-coast-2018-04-05
    Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.

    I’ve said it over and over. We won’t run out of the stuff for generations. There will reach a point where the cost to extract and sell is greater than the alternatives. But nowhere near it yet. Let’s get drilling in Lancashire.
    Absolutely. Europe needs to decide if it’s happy relying on Russian gas, if theyre going to get it from Bahrain and Qatar, or if they’re going to start digging themselves. From a political point of view a large amount of Option 3 should be an absolute necessity.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. B, I saw that story. However, it follows Monaco (which apparently is run by a different firm) indicating it's going to have grid girls.

    Yes, Monaco is unique in being the only event that F1 attends, rather than promotes itself.
    I see Bahrain just acquired strategic significance...
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bahrain-announces-huge-shale-oil-discovery-off-its-coast-2018-04-05
    Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.
    This stood out:

    "about as much as Russia’s entire oil reserve"!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,238

    @ydoethur

    Sorry wasn't intentional skipping of the question. The problem is I don't accept the premise, if she gets deselected, she likely would have been deselected regardless of the protest. Also I don't accept the idea the protest was just anti racism, clearly part of it was to do with Corbyn and his leadership of the Labour party. Edit: Obviously with the idea being a link between racism and Corbyn's leadership in some way.

    If she got deselected (or any of the other things) purely for going on this protest that would be wrong even if the protest wasn't just anti racism but obviously even more so if it was.

    @Ishmael_Z

    If you could point to where I said that?

    Your final rhetorical question suggests that if a demonstration is partly anti-racism in Corbyn's party and partly anti-Corbyn, Corbyn's supporters are justified in being opposed to the demonstration on a net basis. I think Corbyn's supporters have to live with it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. B, I saw that story. However, it follows Monaco (which apparently is run by a different firm) indicating it's going to have grid girls.

    Yes, Monaco is unique in being the only event that F1 attends, rather than promotes itself.
    I see Bahrain just acquired strategic significance...
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bahrain-announces-huge-shale-oil-discovery-off-its-coast-2018-04-05
    Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.
    This stood out:

    "about as much as Russia’s entire oil reserve"!
    In theory - quite what the economically recoverable reserves are will take some time to determine.
    It does significantly change the strategic dynamics of the region (and possibly the global oil market).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145
    On the Facebook brouhaha, I though this a good article:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2018/04/googles-one-time-chief-technology-advocate-on-making-facebook-likable/557378/
    So, how might FB fix itself? What might government regulators seek? What could make FaceBook likeable? It is very simple. There are just two choices:

    a. FB stays in its send-your-PII-to-their-customers business, and then must be regulated and the customers validated precisely as AXCIOM and EXPERIAN in the credit world or doctors and hospitals in the HIPPA healthcare world; or,

    b. FB joins Google and ALL OTHER WEB ADVERTISERS in keeping PII private, never letting it out, and anonymously connecting advertisers with its users for their mutual benefit.

    I don't get a vote, but I like (b) and see that as the right path for civil society. There is no way that choice (a) is not a loathsome and destructive force in all things—in my personal opinion it seems that making people's pillow-talk into a marketing weapon is indeed a form of evil.

    This is why I never use Facebook…
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,513

    GIN1138 said:

    What we really need is a poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    With one KABOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!!!! ICM went from hero to zero on PB! :(
    To be fair to Martin all of the kabooms were justified.
    But, he wound a lot of people up.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,357
    Ishmael_Z said:

    @ydoethur

    Sorry wasn't intentional skipping of the question. The problem is I don't accept the premise, if she gets deselected, she likely would have been deselected regardless of the protest. Also I don't accept the idea the protest was just anti racism, clearly part of it was to do with Corbyn and his leadership of the Labour party. Edit: Obviously with the idea being a link between racism and Corbyn's leadership in some way.

    If she got deselected (or any of the other things) purely for going on this protest that would be wrong even if the protest wasn't just anti racism but obviously even more so if it was.

    @Ishmael_Z

    If you could point to where I said that?

    Your final rhetorical question suggests that if a demonstration is partly anti-racism in Corbyn's party and partly anti-Corbyn, Corbyn's supporters are justified in being opposed to the demonstration on a net basis. I think Corbyn's supporters have to live with it.
    The fact that the Corbyn supporters see a demonstration against racism as primarily a demonstration against Corbyn, shows how messed up his party is with their priorities.

    I’m still predicting that for every seat they win in London in the locals, Labour are going to lose two seats elsewhere in the country.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,145
    Sandpit said:

    notme said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. B, I saw that story. However, it follows Monaco (which apparently is run by a different firm) indicating it's going to have grid girls.

    Yes, Monaco is unique in being the only event that F1 attends, rather than promotes itself.
    I see Bahrain just acquired strategic significance...
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bahrain-announces-huge-shale-oil-discovery-off-its-coast-2018-04-05
    Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.

    I’ve said it over and over. We won’t run out of the stuff for generations. There will reach a point where the cost to extract and sell is greater than the alternatives. But nowhere near it yet. Let’s get drilling in Lancashire.
    Absolutely. Europe needs to decide if it’s happy relying on Russian gas, if theyre going to get it from Bahrain and Qatar, or if they’re going to start digging themselves. From a political point of view a large amount of Option 3 should be an absolute necessity.
    It was notable in the ongoing war of words with Russia that they regard(ed) the mooted pipeline through Syria as a "provocation".
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,373
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Exactly. You trade your influence for the symbolism of being independent. Everything else stays the same. I am not sure being told what to do is going to sit well with us long term. We're not Norway and happy to outsource a large part of our foreign and trade relations to third parties. Short to medium term we need to move on and we'rebored with the subject.

    That may depend a little bit on whether we stay fully aligned, or whether we take advantage of looser ties to loosen them further over time (a la Michael Collins and the Irish governments of Cosgrave and de Valera).

    That will also depend on what governments we elect and what economic options we follow.
    That depends on what the treaty says. Bear in mind the no 1 EU objective is to keep us in its system of regulation, they are not going to change their way of doing things to accommodate us and there isn't an alternative system available to us. Putting that all together it means us indefinitely committing to doing what we are told. There undoubtedly will be break clauses but they will be drastic and designed never to be used.

    Bottom line, our choice is between multilateralism and unilateral conformity. We rejected the first in the referendum and.so are stuck with the second. I wouldn't rule going back to multilateralism as it gives us more of what we want. It depends on how painful we find the conformity. Breaking the conformity would lead to a crisis.
This discussion has been closed.