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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time since GE2017 Corbyn has slipped behind TMay

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited April 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time since GE2017 Corbyn has slipped behind TMay in the leader ratings – can he recover?

The chart shows the trend in TMay’s net favourability lead over Corbyn since she called the election jut over a year ago. The figures are calculated by taking the PM’s net rating and subtracting Mr. Corbyn’s net figure.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,206
    First ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,206
    Nigelb said:

    First ?

    Anxiously awaits the judgment of Vanilla...

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,206
    Corbyn’s chances of recovery are probably as much in the hands of May, and the extent to which she does or doesn’t eff things up over the next couple of years, as in anything he can do.

    For now he’s making a bang up job of effing up all on his own.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,425
    Test
  • Good morning everyone.
    CON maj nailed on?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 817
    FPT
    Mortimer said:

    Currently, the EU are trying to pass barmy legislation ('anti terror', apparently - though what printed books from 1767 have to do with terror funding, no-one seems to be able to say) that could cripple the entire antiques industry.

    Your move.
    Instead of shamelessly indulging in speculative whataboutery you could try responding to the detailed, calm and poignant points made in the blog, by someone who epitomises everything your party used to stand for - free enterprise, hard work and self sacrifice.

    The Tory brand will never recover from the damage done by Brexit.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,683
    Actually "the big question for Labour" is more likely to be whether the PM's reputation takes another hit, or whether she can navigate through the reefs of Brexit and emerge with reputation enhanced. Governments lose elections, and all that....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,480
    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,815
    Off topic:

    So being a soft southerner is genetic:

    'During the Iron Age or Roman Period, the DNA of people in the south-east diverged somewhat from that of populations in the rest of the Britain.'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-43712587
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    Why have we gone all American and put the months before the date?

    Other than that moan a very interesting chart. The swing from 29th May (+9) to 11th June (-32) is particularly marked and I cannot recall such volatility in these type of scores before. Message number one: if you are expecting the British people to elect you their PM you really had better go and speak to them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,873

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit give people the chance to reject Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    Almost right.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,788
    IanB2 said:

    Actually "the big question for Labour" is more likely to be whether the PM's reputation takes another hit, or whether she can navigate through the reefs of Brexit and emerge with reputation enhanced. Governments lose elections, and all that....

    Events dear boy, events. Alternatively, there is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.

    Events are conspiring to aid Mrs May at the moment. Will that continue?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,815
    DavidL said:

    Why have we gone all American and put the months before the date?

    Other than that moan a very interesting chart. The swing from 29th May (+9) to 11th June (-32) is particularly marked and I cannot recall such volatility in these type of scores before. Message number one: if you are expecting the British people to elect you their PM you really had better go and speak to them.

    Indeed. The next election campaign won't be fought in warehouses in front of a handful of the party faithful.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,592

    Good morning everyone.
    CON maj nailed on?

    I think these numbers would support a similar GE result to what we had last year, but better Tory targeting might help a little.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,340

    FPT

    Mortimer said:

    Currently, the EU are trying to pass barmy legislation ('anti terror', apparently - though what printed books from 1767 have to do with terror funding, no-one seems to be able to say) that could cripple the entire antiques industry.

    Your move.
    Instead of shamelessly indulging in speculative whataboutery you could try responding to the detailed, calm and poignant points made in the blog, by someone who epitomises everything your party used to stand for - free enterprise, hard work and self sacrifice.

    The Tory brand will never recover from the damage done by Brexit.

    Why do you think that? The Conservative Party has been around for a long time, and has done many controversial things, and yet still has millions of people voting for it. The idea that Brexit is somehow unique is a little odd.

    Having said that, no party has a right to exist as a force, which the liberals learnt in the early decades of the last century. But that applies to Labour as much as the Conservatives.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,754

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    A small recovery that gets Theresa May back to the lead she enjoyed just a week before polling day, and we know how that turned out.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,226

    IanB2 said:

    Actually "the big question for Labour" is more likely to be whether the PM's reputation takes another hit, or whether she can navigate through the reefs of Brexit and emerge with reputation enhanced. Governments lose elections, and all that....

    Events dear boy, events. Alternatively, there is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.

    Events are conspiring to aid Mrs May at the moment. Will that continue?
    It's been an optimal period for TM (because international tension suits her calm style - a glance at Boris shows how not to handle such things) and JC has taken a real battering. I wouldn't expect that to persist indefinitely. I do think that May will get a further boost when Brexit is delivered in one form or another - as Marquee says, people will mostly breathe a sigh of relief and hope to move on.

    I'm not convinced that the local elections will go well for Labour, and that will give his internal opponents a chance for another round of bashing, but his personal popularity in the party and the absence of credible opponents will seem him through. There are still a lot more people who positively like him than TM, though she's getting more respect now from her critics. In the longer term to 2022, sheer Government weariness and a hangover as the results of a Goldilocks Brexit filter through will erode the Tory ratings. Anyone who predicts the outcome with any confidence is brave.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,788
    New phrase around; what is a Goldilocks Brexit. Is it one which seems OK at first and then the bears come calling?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,952
    Good morning, everyone.

    Wish the weather would be nice for just a day or two. Got to wander into town at some point and it'd be better if it weren't either raining or looking like it might at any second.

    On-topic: he probably will. The Cult will never desert him, and once we're onto other matters (especially leaving the EU, where May has to deliver a reality and Corbyn can be a blank canvas for anyone to paint their preferred picture upon) it'll be better for him.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,754
    edited April 11

    New phrase around; what is a Goldilocks Brexit. Is it one which seems OK at first and then the bears come calling?

    Not too hard; not too soft.

    Goldilocks was very tired by this time, so she went upstairs to the bedroom. She lay down in the first bed, but it was too hard. Then she lay in the second bed, but it was too soft. Then she lay down in the third bed and it was just right.
    http://www.dltk-teach.com/rhymes/goldilocks_story.htm

    Your description might prove more accurate.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,840

    FPT

    Mortimer said:

    Currently, the EU are trying to pass barmy legislation ('anti terror', apparently - though what printed books from 1767 have to do with terror funding, no-one seems to be able to say) that could cripple the entire antiques industry.

    Your move.
    Instead of shamelessly indulging in speculative whataboutery you could try responding to the detailed, calm and poignant points made in the blog, by someone who epitomises everything your party used to stand for - free enterprise, hard work and self sacrifice.

    The Tory brand will never recover from the damage done by Brexit.

    Interesting to read that perspective.
    Wasn't quite clear whether she is going to get these problems when we leave the EU or after the transition period?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,754

    New phrase around; what is a Goldilocks Brexit. Is it one which seems OK at first and then the bears come calling?

    Not too hard; not too soft.

    Goldilocks was very tired by this time, so she went upstairs to the bedroom. She lay down in the first bed, but it was too hard. Then she lay in the second bed, but it was too soft. Then she lay down in the third bed and it was just right.
    http://www.dltk-teach.com/rhymes/goldilocks_story.htm


    Your description might prove more accurate.
    I took it to mean we'd all be so poor we'll have to eat porridge.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,437

    IanB2 said:

    Actually "the big question for Labour" is more likely to be whether the PM's reputation takes another hit, or whether she can navigate through the reefs of Brexit and emerge with reputation enhanced. Governments lose elections, and all that....

    Events dear boy, events. Alternatively, there is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.

    Events are conspiring to aid Mrs May at the moment. Will that continue?
    It's been an optimal period for TM (because international tension suits her calm style - a glance at Boris shows how not to handle such things) and JC has taken a real battering. I wouldn't expect that to persist indefinitely. I do think that May will get a further boost when Brexit is delivered in one form or another - as Marquee says, people will mostly breathe a sigh of relief and hope to move on.

    I'm not convinced that the local elections will go well for Labour, and that will give his internal opponents a chance for another round of bashing, but his personal popularity in the party and the absence of credible opponents will seem him through. There are still a lot more people who positively like him than TM, though she's getting more respect now from her critics. In the longer term to 2022, sheer Government weariness and a hangover as the results of a Goldilocks Brexit filter through will erode the Tory ratings. Anyone who predicts the outcome with any confidence is brave.
    I don't think its brave to say Labour won't win with Corbyn as Leader. The Tories could well win with May as leader. That's the difference.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469

    New phrase around; what is a Goldilocks Brexit. Is it one which seems OK at first and then the bears come calling?

    Not too hard; not too soft.

    Goldilocks was very tired by this time, so she went upstairs to the bedroom. She lay down in the first bed, but it was too hard. Then she lay in the second bed, but it was too soft. Then she lay down in the third bed and it was just right.
    http://www.dltk-teach.com/rhymes/goldilocks_story.htm


    Your description might prove more accurate.
    I took it to mean we'd all be so poor we'll have to eat porridge.
    That's Donald Trump :smiley:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,629

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,423
    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    And, worryingly, after nine years of growth we are still borrowing £100m a day.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,873
    The author of one of the seminal Eurosceptic texts 'The Great Deception' has this to say about Goldilocks. It's a sign that after 1975 and 2016 we need a third referendum on Europe.

    Author Christopher Booker characterises this as the "dialectical three", where "the first is wrong in one way, the second in another or opposite way, and only the third, in the middle, is just right." Booker continues "This idea that the way forward lies in finding an exact middle path between opposites is of extraordinary importance in storytelling".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,480
    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    But we have never had interest rates on the floor so long either.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    But we have never had interest rates on the floor so long either.....
    That does mean we have few obvious levers to pull in a downturn.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,478

    FPT

    Mortimer said:

    Currently, the EU are trying to pass barmy legislation ('anti terror', apparently - though what printed books from 1767 have to do with terror funding, no-one seems to be able to say) that could cripple the entire antiques industry.

    Your move.
    Instead of shamelessly indulging in speculative whataboutery you could try responding to the detailed, calm and poignant points made in the blog, by someone who epitomises everything your party used to stand for - free enterprise, hard work and self sacrifice.

    The Tory brand will never recover from the damage done by Brexit.

    It's not shameless whataboutery. It was pointing out that the EU doesn't stand still, and is currently poised to kill off thousands of small businesses by not knowing about an entire industry but deciding what is best for that industry.

    It is also incredibly personal to me, given that I have a small business in the antiques industry. We're talking about small business, right?

    On the points in the article, it assumes that we won't replicate the frictionless trade in goods that we currently have with the EU.

    It doesn't account for currency fluctuations caused by leaving the EU that might help a small export business.

    And, As I obviously have to spell this out, it doesn't appreciate that at the drop of a hat the EU can pass laws that could kill of their business with little democratic repercussion, and, since QMV, no veto representation from nation state governments.

    As with what would be expected from a blog that has 'the48' in the title, it accentuates the negatives at all turns.







  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,952
    F1: Ladbrokes has its markets up. Annoyingly, no each way available for fastest qualifier.

    Worth keeping an eye on the Shanghai weather forecast. Rain is slightly more probable than not (60%ish). If that rises, Williams or Sauber could easily 'win' FP1 as the only chaps to participate. Tiny stakes only, but I've backed them each way (fifth the odds for top 3). Stroll/Ericsson are 501, or 651 with boost, with Leclerc and Sirotkin 751, or 1001 with boost. Worth it, for very small stakes, I think.

    [Ericsson was third in third practice in Oz. Not sure what the odds were, but it would've been long].
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,695

    IanB2 said:

    Actually "the big question for Labour" is more likely to be whether the PM's reputation takes another hit, or whether she can navigate through the reefs of Brexit and emerge with reputation enhanced. Governments lose elections, and all that....

    Events dear boy, events. Alternatively, there is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.

    Events are conspiring to aid Mrs May at the moment. Will that continue?
    I'm not convinced that the local elections will go well for Labour
    Really? I'm surprised. Surely you'd expect them to sweep London, so are you expecting a bad night in other placed?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,952
    My sympathies, Mr. Mortimer. Reminds me of the idiotic EU nonsense over charging VAT. It was ostensibly to get more money from Amazon and the like, but the bureaucratic burdens was such that it caused many small businesses to either cease or move into marketplaces* that were equipped to handle the paperwork.

    *Like Amazon.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    Its been a pretty odd economic cycle though. We did not get the rapid recovery you normally get after a recession. We are not, late on in the cycle, seeing a surge in questionable investments based on what will appear in retrospect insanely optimistic projections. We have seen no pick up in inflation to talk of which would normally be a sign for central banks to douse the flames. In fact central banks are really struggling to raise interest rates off the floor at all. In the UK we have seen almost full employment. That is not the case everywhere but even here the labour market is working as if we had plenty of spare capacity rather than shortages.

    Its possible, of course, that the nature of the financial crash was such that we are just having a pretty shitty cycle (trying to offset serious deflationary pressures) and things will take their normal course. But in my view none of the cyclical warning bells are ringing at all. Things can still go wrong, a trade war between China and the US being the most obvious current example, but I think we might stagger along like this for a considerable time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,219
    Reading the news on Syria it does seem some military action is on its way and that some days are needed for the US to get its ships on station. Saudi in a conference with Macron yesterday said that they are prepared to join action by the allies. It has also been said Israel will also be part of action.

    It appears that Russia is far more worried than it demonstrates and has no wish to cross swords with Israel.

    These are seriously dangerous times
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,754

    Good morning, everyone.

    Wish the weather would be nice for just a day or two. Got to wander into town at some point and it'd be better if it weren't either raining or looking like it might at any second.

    On-topic: he probably will. The Cult will never desert him, and once we're onto other matters (especially leaving the EU, where May has to deliver a reality and Corbyn can be a blank canvas for anyone to paint their preferred picture upon) it'll be better for him.

    Is your final paragraph really about Corbyn or are you making the case for backing Jacob Rees-Mogg to be next Conservative leader?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,629

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    But we have never had interest rates on the floor so long either.....
    Well yes, but that delivers distortions too. It discourages savings, increasing businesses cost of capital, and increases our current account deficit.

    Disturbing fact of the day: if you borrow $1,000 to buy a new iPhone, it adds more to UK GDP than to the US, China and Taiwan combined.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,480
    If Labour has one core strength, it is nepotism....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,480
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    But we have never had interest rates on the floor so long either.....
    That does mean we have few obvious levers to pull in a downturn.
    True. But those levers being pulled for so long already may have kept recession at bay.

    I'm sure a couple of economists will opine on the importance of near-zero interest rates for a decade in keeping recession at bay.

    And give us the obligatory three opinions.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,952
    Mr. L, Mogg clearly wants, as it were, Brexitus Maximus. Corbyn's murmuring this way then that, allowing those of either side, if they so wish, to claim he's of the same view as them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,629
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    And, worryingly, after nine years of growth we are still borrowing £100m a day.
    Don't tell anyone, but it's OK if the government runs a deficit through the cycle.

    However, you are absolutely right that in year nine you probably should be poking your ahead into surplus land, and by year 10, it should be a good 1-2% of GDP.

    We should aim to have government debt-to-GDP stable at 55-60% through the cycle. So, at the end of the end of a period of economic expansion, it should probably be 50%, and at the depths of the subsequent recession, perhaps 65%.

    Sadly, there are few votes in genuine prudence.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,754

    If Labour has one core strength, it is nepotism....
    Another policy Blair's red Tories shamelessly stole from the Conservatives, who gave us the only PM to be succeeded by his niece's husband; not to mention the Pitts, elder and younger.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    But we have never had interest rates on the floor so long either.....
    That does mean we have few obvious levers to pull in a downturn.
    True. But those levers being pulled for so long already may have kept recession at bay.

    I'm sure a couple of economists will opine on the importance of near-zero interest rates for a decade in keeping recession at bay.

    And give us the obligatory three opinions.....
    The one warning light that is flashing is debt which is back above 2007 levels. Normally a recession wipes out a lot of bad debt and inhibits borrowing for an extended period. This time the combination of zero interest rates and QE meant a lot of that debt survived, even if it was with zombie companies.

    Personal bankruptcy rose but not wildly and repossessions were modest. Banks were strongly encouraged to keep lending despite Basle II and III. So we have kept borrowing and consuming. We have been able to do this because interest rates have not recovered but borrowing is ultimately bringing forward future consumption to today and when that future comes we may find demand hard to maintain.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,629
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    Its been a pretty odd economic cycle though. We did not get the rapid recovery you normally get after a recession. We are not, late on in the cycle, seeing a surge in questionable investments based on what will appear in retrospect insanely optimistic projections. We have seen no pick up in inflation to talk of which would normally be a sign for central banks to douse the flames. In fact central banks are really struggling to raise interest rates off the floor at all. In the UK we have seen almost full employment. That is not the case everywhere but even here the labour market is working as if we had plenty of spare capacity rather than shortages.

    Its possible, of course, that the nature of the financial crash was such that we are just having a pretty shitty cycle (trying to offset serious deflationary pressures) and things will take their normal course. But in my view none of the cyclical warning bells are ringing at all. Things can still go wrong, a trade war between China and the US being the most obvious current example, but I think we might stagger along like this for a considerable time.
    Three cyclical warning bells are ringing:

    1. The savings rate is depressed, which typically happens only late in the economic cycle.
    2. There is near to full employment, which typically happens only late in the economic cycle.
    3. There is a large current account deficit, which, oh scratch that, is a permanent feature of the British economy post about 2000.

    There are plenty of crazy investments going on: in London housing and in venture capital. What there is not is any sign of wage pressures, which may be the result of EU immigration, or globalisation, or the fact we're not running near capacity.

    I'm cautious. But maybe I worry too much.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469

    If Labour has one core strength, it is nepotism....
    Another policy Blair's red Tories shamelessly stole from the Conservatives, who gave us the only PM to be succeeded by his niece's husband; not to mention the Pitts, elder and younger.
    And the Grenvilles, and the Chamberlains, and the Salisburys.

    Admittedly in the time of the Pitts and Grenvilles party labels were very loose - both described themselves as Whigs although they led Tory ministries - and the Chamberlains all started as Liberals.

    The Cecil family they can have!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,592
    If Euan Blair is the best name they’ve got, then it’s safe to say it will fizzle out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    edited April 11
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    Its been a pretty odd economic cycle though. We did not get the rapid recovery you normally get after a recession. We are not, late on in the cycle, seeing a surge in questionable investments based on what will appear in retrospect insanely optimistic projections. We have seen no pick up in inflation to talk of which would normally be a sign for central banks to douse the flames. In fact central banks are really struggling to raise interest rates off the floor at all. In the UK we have seen almost full employment. That is not the case everywhere but even here the labour market is working as if we had plenty of spare capacity rather than shortages.

    Its possible, of course, that the nature of the financial crash was such that we are just having a pretty shitty cycle (trying to offset serious deflationary pressures) and things will take their normal course. But in my view none of the cyclical warning bells are ringing at all. Things can still go wrong, a trade war between China and the US being the most obvious current example, but I think we might stagger along like this for a considerable time.
    Three cyclical warning bells are ringing:

    1. The savings rate is depressed, which typically happens only late in the economic cycle.
    2. There is near to full employment, which typically happens only late in the economic cycle.
    3. There is a large current account deficit, which, oh scratch that, is a permanent feature of the British economy post about 2000.

    There are plenty of crazy investments going on: in London housing and in venture capital. What there is not is any sign of wage pressures, which may be the result of EU immigration, or globalisation, or the fact we're not running near capacity.

    I'm cautious. But maybe I worry too much.
    Debt, the counter of the savings rate, is the one that worries me. The threat is not capacity but demand.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469

    It appears that Russia is far more worried than it demonstrates and has no wish to cross swords with Israel.

    If it is worried about Israel and not that small country somewhere in the west led by Mr Locked and Loaded it has its priorities very seriously wrong!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,592

    The author of one of the seminal Eurosceptic texts 'The Great Deception' has this to say about Goldilocks. It's a sign that after 1975 and 2016 we need a third referendum on Europe.

    Author Christopher Booker characterises this as the "dialectical three", where "the first is wrong in one way, the second in another or opposite way, and only the third, in the middle, is just right." Booker continues "This idea that the way forward lies in finding an exact middle path between opposites is of extraordinary importance in storytelling".

    So you admit the 1975 referendum result was wrong?

    Interesting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469
    edited April 11

    If Euan Blair is the best name they’ve got, then it’s safe to say it will fizzle out.
    It will be found drunk, in a gutter, in Bristol having forgotten which of the two flats at its disposal it was meant to be in that night.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,629
    DavidL said:

    Debt, the counter of the savings rate is the one that worries me. The threat is not capacity but demand.

    I agree: my "trigger" for the next recession in the UK is that consumers decide they need to save more. That may happen because of rising interest rates, or increased economic uncertainty, or because their house price has dropped, or simply because savings rates are well below through the cycle equilibrium levels.

    And with that, it's time for bed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,697
    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469
    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If we could have an 84 point turnaround in five months last year it can happen again.

    That's your reason.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,206

    Good morning, everyone.

    Wish the weather would be nice for just a day or two. Got to wander into town at some point and it'd be better if it weren't either raining or looking like it might at any second.

    On-topic: he probably will. The Cult will never desert him, and once we're onto other matters (especially leaving the EU, where May has to deliver a reality and Corbyn can be a blank canvas for anyone to paint their preferred picture upon) it'll be better for him.

    Morning, Mr.D.
    I note Mercedes admit they got outsmarted by Ferrari again:
    https://www.racefans.net/2018/04/10/mercedes-admit-they-were-too-slow-to-respond-to-vettel-threat/
    They really need to employ a decent race strategist... I'm open to offers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,952
    Mr. HYUFD, she's the worst campaigner since Tigranes the Great decided to kill every messenger who gave him bad news, leading to no-one telling him the Romans were coming until it was too late.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,423
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    And, worryingly, after nine years of growth we are still borrowing £100m a day.
    Don't tell anyone, but it's OK if the government runs a deficit through the cycle.

    However, you are absolutely right that in year nine you probably should be poking your ahead into surplus land, and by year 10, it should be a good 1-2% of GDP.

    We should aim to have government debt-to-GDP stable at 55-60% through the cycle. So, at the end of the end of a period of economic expansion, it should probably be 50%, and at the depths of the subsequent recession, perhaps 65%.

    Sadly, there are few votes in genuine prudence.
    Most annoyingly, it wouldn’t have taken a massive effort to restrain profligate spending between 2002 and 2008, for us to be in a considerably better position now than we actually are.

    Sadly, governments see more votes in spending money than they do in paying down debt, hence debt is now 87% of GDP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,206
    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If your claim to continuing leadership rests on being slightly better than Corbyn...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,697
    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    The Tories could still win even in.a recession given Corbyn is the alternative.

    That was what happened in 1992 when Major lost just 0.3% of the 1987 Tory voteshare as the voters were unwilling to give Kinnock the keys to Downing Street
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483

    Mr. HYUFD, she's the worst campaigner since Tigranes the Great decided to kill every messenger who gave him bad news, leading to no-one telling him the Romans were coming until it was too late.

    The great pillock, presumably?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 1,818
    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    Well, Mikes supposition that leader favourability is a better guide to outcomes was pretty convincingly wrong this time last year. It may well be so again.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,271
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If your claim to continuing leadership rests on being slightly better than Corbyn...
    ...then you are fine if you can achieve the wholly achievable aim of continuing to be slightly better than Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,697

    Mr. HYUFD, she's the worst campaigner since Tigranes the Great decided to kill every messenger who gave him bad news, leading to no-one telling him the Romans were coming until it was too late.

    Is she though? The 42% she got in 2017 was not only the highest Tory voteshare since Thatcher in 1983 but also little changed from what she had at the beginning of the campaign in many polls, the main difference was Corbyn squeezed the left-wing and protest vote behind him and he has little further room to squeeze that.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,434

    FPT

    Mortimer said:

    Currently, the EU are trying to pass barmy legislation ('anti terror', apparently - though what printed books from 1767 have to do with terror funding, no-one seems to be able to say) that could cripple the entire antiques industry.

    Your move.
    Instead of shamelessly indulging in speculative whataboutery you could try responding to the detailed, calm and poignant points made in the blog, by someone who epitomises everything your party used to stand for - free enterprise, hard work and self sacrifice.

    The Tory brand will never recover from the damage done by Brexit.

    I think a business that depends on shipping relatively small consignments will be hit by Brexit. Her consignments vary in value but average £400. I can imagine additional costs per consignment of £15 for customs processing, £5 extra courier cost, £10 in staff and financing costs for the new paperwork and delays, for a total of £30 average additional cost per shipment post Brexit. This assumes an FTA, but not remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market, where the bureaucracy costs would be lower. Many businesses don't have a 7% margin they can give away. It would make the difference of whether they stay in business.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,697
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If we could have an 84 point turnaround in five months last year it can happen again.

    That's your reason.
    Except we didn't. Mrs May won enough seats to form a government and the 42% she got at the general election in June was actually higher than the 38% she got in the county council elections in May, the main difference was Corbyn increased the Labour share from 28% to 40% and the LD share collapsed from 18% to 7%
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    The Tories could still win even in.a recession given Corbyn is the alternative.

    That was what happened in 1992 when Major lost just 0.3% of the 1987 Tory voteshare as the voters were unwilling to give Kinnock the keys to Downing Street
    He did however lose 40 seats and had his majority cut from 102 to 21.

    Tactical voting seems to have played a part - on an UNS he would have had a majority of 77 and think how different things might have been then.

    But May does not have a three figure majority to play with. Indeed, she has no majority to play with.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,697
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If your claim to continuing leadership rests on being slightly better than Corbyn...
    You continue to stay in government given he will almost certainly lead Labour in 2022
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,840
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    And, worryingly, after nine years of growth we are still borrowing £100m a day.
    Don't tell anyone, but it's OK if the government runs a deficit through the cycle.

    However, you are absolutely right that in year nine you probably should be poking your ahead into surplus land, and by year 10, it should be a good 1-2% of GDP.

    We should aim to have government debt-to-GDP stable at 55-60% through the cycle. So, at the end of the end of a period of economic expansion, it should probably be 50%, and at the depths of the subsequent recession, perhaps 65%.

    Sadly, there are few votes in genuine prudence.
    Those are completely arbitrary numbers.
    But actually when you knock off the QE amounts which we owe ourselves - then we are basically at your range anyway.
    And in any case - borrowing to invest when rates are low is prudent.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    And, worryingly, after nine years of growth we are still borrowing £100m a day.
    Don't tell anyone, but it's OK if the government runs a deficit through the cycle.

    However, you are absolutely right that in year nine you probably should be poking your ahead into surplus land, and by year 10, it should be a good 1-2% of GDP.

    We should aim to have government debt-to-GDP stable at 55-60% through the cycle. So, at the end of the end of a period of economic expansion, it should probably be 50%, and at the depths of the subsequent recession, perhaps 65%.

    Sadly, there are few votes in genuine prudence.
    Most annoyingly, it wouldn’t have taken a massive effort to restrain profligate spending between 2002 and 2008, for us to be in a considerably better position now than we actually are.

    Sadly, governments see more votes in spending money than they do in paying down debt, hence debt is now 87% of GDP.
    See Donald Tump and his $1trn budget deficit. Interestingly, the Fed is now commencing quantative tightening, using monetary policy to offset this fiscal recklessness. It is quite modest so far, only about $30bn a month, but the results are...unpredictable. I wonder if the BoE will want us to head down the same route.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If we could have an 84 point turnaround in five months last year it can happen again.

    That's your reason.
    Except we didn't.
    You're right. My mistake.

    It was in four months.

    Look at the graph, which is what I am talking about.

    Yes, May just about clung on. She was expected to win over 400 seats including places like Bolsover and West Bromwich West. That simply didn't happen and the campaign, which drove floating voters to Corbyn, seems to have been a big problem.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,948
    The 2017 GE was called with minimal preparation, a PM with less than a year’s experience and without the expectation that it will be competitive. None of those will apply in 2022.

    Theresa May can win a majority by delivering Brexit, turning up to debates and TV programmes and by campaigning with a manifesto that has some positive aspects. It’s not rocket science.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,697
    edited April 11
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    The Tories could still win even in.a recession given Corbyn is the alternative.

    That was what happened in 1992 when Major lost just 0.3% of the 1987 Tory voteshare as the voters were unwilling to give Kinnock the keys to Downing Street
    He did however lose 40 seats and had his majority cut from 102 to 21.

    Tactical voting seems to have played a part - on an UNS he would have had a majority of 77 and think how different things might have been then.

    But May does not have a three figure majority to play with. Indeed, she has no majority to play with.
    Major only lost seats because in 1992 the SDP/Alliance vote fell by about 6% from 1987 and moved to Labour, the LD vote has already fallen to its core and has little further to fall.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,547
    I am worried by the massive over valuing of so many tech companies, very few who are making money and of course all that money people have pumped into crypto.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469
    edited April 11

    I am worried by the massive over valuing of so many tech companies, very few who are making money and of course all that money people have pumped into crypto.

    Car loans have sometimes been tipped as the next big bubble.

    Don't have a car loan, have an aged diesel (and an aged petrol actually as well). Does anyone with more knowledge than me have any explanation as to why these are a potential problem?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,952
    Mr. L, Tigranes was called the Great because it was under him that Armenia reached its ancient zenith. And then it was under him they got crushed. Rather May 2017.

    Mr. B, actually, I think Mercedes had the smarter strategy generally but they really should've told Bottas to go hell for leather. Vettel would not have lasted another lap (very impressive drive from him).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,697
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If we could have an 84 point turnaround in five months last year it can happen again.

    That's your reason.
    Except we didn't.
    You're right. My mistake.

    It was in four months.

    Look at the graph, which is what I am talking about.

    Yes, May just about clung on. She was expected to win over 400 seats including places like Bolsover and West Bromwich West. That simply didn't happen and the campaign, which drove floating voters to Corbyn, seems to have been a big problem.
    The fact she was overconfident and aimed for a landslide and winning seats even Thatcher never won was unrealistic, however she did still win over 60 more seats than Corbyn and keeping them will be less difficult than winning Bolsover.

    Her biggest mistake, the dementia tax, has also been scrapped
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,725
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    Its been a pretty odd economic cycle though. We did not get the rapid recovery you normally get after a recession. We are not, late on in the cycle, seeing a surge in questionable investments based on what will appear in retrospect insanely optimistic projections. We have seen no pick up in inflation to talk of which would normally be a sign for central banks to douse the flames. In fact central banks are really struggling to raise interest rates off the floor at all. In the UK we have seen almost full employment. That is not the case everywhere but even here the labour market is working as if we had plenty of spare capacity rather than shortages.

    Its possible, of course, that the nature of the financial crash was such that we are just having a pretty shitty cycle (trying to offset serious deflationary pressures) and things will take their normal course. But in my view none of the cyclical warning bells are ringing at all. Things can still go wrong, a trade war between China and the US being the most obvious current example, but I think we might stagger along like this for a considerable time.
    I'm on my way to NY where I hope to have 4 consecutive days without endless bloody rain and grey skies.

    My prediction, FWIW, is that the next financial scandals will be in the wealth management sector: lots of growth, clients from dodgy countries or with interesting backgrounds, tick the box due diligence, possibly misaligned incentives, especially to increase net new money and leverage, client advisors too close to their clients, a poor or complacent culture and a push to sell complex products.

    Plus the political background is changing. See Russia, for instance.

    It has a whiff to me of what it was like in other financial sectors before they went splat.

    You heard it here first.......
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483

    Mr. L, Tigranes was called the Great because it was under him that Armenia reached its ancient zenith. And then it was under him they got crushed. Rather May 2017.

    Mr. B, actually, I think Mercedes had the smarter strategy generally but they really should've told Bottas to go hell for leather. Vettel would not have lasted another lap (very impressive drive from him).

    If Hamilton had been in Bottas's car no one would have needed to tell him. Bottas lacks the killer instincts of a great driver.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469
    edited April 11
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If we could have an 84 point turnaround in five months last year it can happen again.

    That's your reason.
    Except we didn't.
    You're right. My mistake.

    It was in four months.

    Look at the graph, which is what I am talking about.

    Yes, May just about clung on. She was expected to win over 400 seats including places like Bolsover and West Bromwich West. That simply didn't happen and the campaign, which drove floating voters to Corbyn, seems to have been a big problem.
    The fact she was overconfident and aimed for a landslide and winning seats even Thatcher never won was unrealistic, however she did still win over 60 more seats than Corbyn and keeping them will be less difficult than winning Bolsover.

    Her biggest mistake, the dementia tax, has also been scrapped
    She won Mansfield and Copeland. A real landslide wasn't quite as far out as you are suggesting.

    She also lost Kensington and Canterbury - even Balfour held Canterbury although (buffs nails) one rather brilliant poster here suggested it might be vulnerable to Labour given its profile.

    That is not the sign of a successful strategy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,697
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If we could have an 84 point turnaround in five months last year it can happen again.

    That's your reason.
    Except we didn't.
    You're right. My mistake.

    It was in four months.

    Look at the graph, which is what I am talking about.

    Yes, May just about clung on. She was expected to win over 400 seats including places like Bolsover and West Bromwich West. That simply didn't happen and the campaign, which drove floating voters to Corbyn, seems to have been a big problem.
    The fact she was overconfident and aimed for a landslide and winning seats even Thatcher never won was unrealistic, however she did still win over 60 more seats than Corbyn and keeping them will be less difficult than winning Bolsover.

    Her biggest mistake, the dementia tax, has also been scrapped
    She won Mansfield and Copeland. A real landslide wasn't quite as far out as you are suggesting.

    She also lost Kensington and Canterbury - even Balfour held Canterbury although (buffs nails) one rather brilliant poster here suggested it might be vulnerable to Labour given its profile.

    That is not the sign of a successful strategy.
    Mansfield had a 2015 majority of 5,000, Bolsover of 11,000.

    Canterbury was lost because of tuition fees levels and interest rates compared to Corbyn's promise to scrap them which was more Osborne's fault than May's, the Tories won Mansfield and Copeland because of Brexit but lost Kensington because of Brexit
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,952
    Mr. L, many have said similar things. I think Bottas is a good driver. But he's not in the Hamilton/Vettel league.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,120
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If we could have an 84 point turnaround in five months last year it can happen again.

    That's your reason.
    Except we didn't.
    You're right. My mistake.

    It was in four months.

    Look at the graph, which is what I am talking about.

    Yes, May just about clung on. She was expected to win over 400 seats including places like Bolsover and West Bromwich West. That simply didn't happen and the campaign, which drove floating voters to Corbyn, seems to have been a big problem.
    The fact she was overconfident and aimed for a landslide and winning seats even Thatcher never won was unrealistic, however she did still win over 60 more seats than Corbyn and keeping them will be less difficult than winning Bolsover.

    Her biggest mistake, the dementia tax, has also been scrapped
    She won Mansfield and Copeland. A real landslide wasn't quite as far out as you are suggesting.

    She also lost Kensington and Canterbury - even Balfour held Canterbury although (buffs nails) one rather brilliant poster here suggested it might be vulnerable to Labour given its profile.

    That is not the sign of a successful strategy.
    Morning all,

    There is a bleak assessment of Tories in this week's Spectator. The article is mainly about London, where changing demographics and attitudes mean the party is close to full panic over prospects this spring.

    But it also discusses wider issues e.g. ageing membership, reluctance to canvas in the way that young Corbynites do, split between urban views and the Shire Tories represented by May.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,423

    Mr. L, Tigranes was called the Great because it was under him that Armenia reached its ancient zenith. And then it was under him they got crushed. Rather May 2017.

    Mr. B, actually, I think Mercedes had the smarter strategy generally but they really should've told Bottas to go hell for leather. Vettel would not have lasted another lap (very impressive drive from him).

    And it wasn’t as if Ferrari chose to leave Vettel out for strategic reasons, it was because of the chaos in their own pit box meaning they missed to window to pit him. Bottas also has almost no tyres left at the end, of the race had been a couple more laps it could well have been Hamilton’s win. Great finish though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    Its been a pretty odd economic cycle though. We did not get the rapid recovery you normally get after a recession. We are not, late on in the cycle, seeing a surge in questionable investments based on what will appear in retrospect insanely optimistic projections. We have seen no pick up in inflation to talk of which would normally be a sign for central banks to douse the flames. In fact central banks are really struggling to raise interest rates off the floor at all. In the UK we have seen almost full employment. That is not the case everywhere but even here the labour market is working as if we had plenty of spare capacity rather than shortages.

    Its possible, of course, that the nature of the financial crash was such that we are just having a pretty shitty cycle (trying to offset serious deflationary pressures) and things will take their normal course. But in my view none of the cyclical warning bells are ringing at all. Things can still go wrong, a trade war between China and the US being the most obvious current example, but I think we might stagger along like this for a considerable time.
    I'm on my way to NY where I hope to have 4 consecutive days without endless bloody rain and grey skies.

    My prediction, FWIW, is that the next financial scandals will be in the wealth management sector: lots of growth, clients from dodgy countries or with interesting backgrounds, tick the box due diligence, possibly misaligned incentives, especially to increase net new money and leverage, client advisors too close to their clients, a poor or complacent culture and a push to sell complex products.

    Plus the political background is changing. See Russia, for instance.

    It has a whiff to me of what it was like in other financial sectors before they went splat.

    You heard it here first.......
    Financial scandals are normally a feature of recessions rather than their cause. 2007 was pretty well unique (well for the best part of a century) in that respect. We will undoubtedly see more financial scandals. London is laundering the world's dirty money on a truly industrial scale both through financial products and property. But although it may get pretty bumpy for London property owners, I don't see the scale of problem there was with subprime and CDOs that we had in 2007.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,480
    HYUFD said:

    Her biggest mistake, the dementia tax, has also been scrapped

    But the underlying issue hasn't gone away. For any party.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,754
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If we could have an 84 point turnaround in five months last year it can happen again.

    That's your reason.
    Except we didn't.
    You're right. My mistake.

    It was in four months.

    Look at the graph, which is what I am talking about.

    Yes, May just about clung on. She was expected to win over 400 seats including places like Bolsover and West Bromwich West. That simply didn't happen and the campaign, which drove floating voters to Corbyn, seems to have been a big problem.
    The fact she was overconfident and aimed for a landslide and winning seats even Thatcher never won was unrealistic, however she did still win over 60 more seats than Corbyn and keeping them will be less difficult than winning Bolsover.

    Her biggest mistake, the dementia tax, has also been scrapped
    I'm still unconvinced the dementia tax was to blame. The timing does not really fit.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,478

    My sympathies, Mr. Mortimer. Reminds me of the idiotic EU nonsense over charging VAT. It was ostensibly to get more money from Amazon and the like, but the bureaucratic burdens was such that it caused many small businesses to either cease or move into marketplaces* that were equipped to handle the paperwork.

    *Like Amazon.

    Thanks Mr Morris.

    With business comes risk - but 'authorities can be idiots about stuff' is very frustrating. I've been liaising with various MPs and MEPs, as have our various trade associations.

    Some fools on the INTA/IMCO ctte want to make the threshold for cultural goods for import purposes 100 years! They don't have a clue how such goods circulate, and have circulated, freely, for centuries.

    That VAT on digital goods nonsense is barmy; bureaucracies never properly understand the cost of bureaucracy on business.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,592
    RoyalBlue said:

    The 2017 GE was called with minimal preparation, a PM with less than a year’s experience and without the expectation that it will be competitive. None of those will apply in 2022.

    Theresa May can win a majority by delivering Brexit, turning up to debates and TV programmes and by campaigning with a manifesto that has some positive aspects. It’s not rocket science.

    I don’t think she’s going to get any better at campaigning. She is who she is and in her 60s. People don’t change that much at that age.

    Funnily enough I think she’d be better at TV debates rather than audience Q&As or interviews, where she tends to give stock answers.

    She isn’t actually that bad at the cut & thrust of PMQs. Probably because she can largely anticipate what’s coming.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,434
    ydoethur said:

    I am worried by the massive over valuing of so many tech companies, very few who are making money and of course all that money people have pumped into crypto.

    Car loans have sometimes been tipped as the next big bubble.

    Don't have a car loan, have an aged diesel (and an aged petrol actually as well). Does anyone with more knowledge than me have any explanation as to why these are a potential problem?
    I don't have specialist knowledge but I understand the concern is that car companies may be committed to taking back cars at the end of their leases at prices that are higher than their resale values. That's because second hand car prices have plummeted, particularly on the diesels that were very popular purchases a couple of years ago.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,952
    Anyway, decided to perambulate and hope there's no precipitation. I shall return later.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,271
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It might seem a little churlish to call a 10.5% swing to May since polling day (and a 21% swing since postal votes were being cast) as a "small recovery".....

    She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.

    JCWNBPM.

    While she may (May) deliver a Golidlocks Brexit, the economic cycle is not in her hands. 2018 is the ninth year in a row without a recession. Now, there have been longer economic expansions, but by 2021 the current cycle will be getting pretty long in the tooth.
    Its been a pretty odd economic cycle though. We did not get the rapid recovery you normally get after a recession. We are not, late on in the cycle, seeing a surge in questionable investments based on what will appear in retrospect insanely optimistic projections. We have seen no pick up in inflation to talk of which would normally be a sign for central banks to douse the flames. In fact central banks are really struggling to raise interest rates off the floor at all. In the UK we have seen almost full employment. That is not the case everywhere but even here the labour market is working as if we had plenty of spare capacity rather than shortages.

    Its possible, of course, that the nature of the financial crash was such that we are just having a pretty shitty cycle (trying to offset serious deflationary pressures) and things will take their normal course. But in my view none of the cyclical warning bells are ringing at all. Things can still go wrong, a trade war between China and the US being the most obvious current example, but I think we might stagger along like this for a considerable time.
    I'm on my way to NY where I hope to have 4 consecutive days without endless bloody rain and grey skies.

    My prediction, FWIW, is that the next financial scandals will be in the wealth management sector: lots of growth, clients from dodgy countries or with interesting backgrounds, tick the box due diligence, possibly misaligned incentives, especially to increase net new money and leverage, client advisors too close to their clients, a poor or complacent culture and a push to sell complex products.

    Plus the political background is changing. See Russia, for instance.

    It has a whiff to me of what it was like in other financial sectors before they went splat.

    You heard it here first.......
    Are there enough funds under management by these companies for a scandal to matter? I'd have thought not. Now if it turned out there is some horrific flaw in index tracking ETFs none of us has thought of, that would get really interesting.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,754

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If we could have an 84 point turnaround in five months last year it can happen again.

    That's your reason.
    Except we didn't.
    You're right. My mistake.

    It was in four months.

    Look at the graph, which is what I am talking about.

    Yes, May just about clung on. She was expected to win over 400 seats including places like Bolsover and West Bromwich West. That simply didn't happen and the campaign, which drove floating voters to Corbyn, seems to have been a big problem.
    The fact she was overconfident and aimed for a landslide and winning seats even Thatcher never won was unrealistic, however she did still win over 60 more seats than Corbyn and keeping them will be less difficult than winning Bolsover.

    Her biggest mistake, the dementia tax, has also been scrapped
    She won Mansfield and Copeland. A real landslide wasn't quite as far out as you are suggesting.

    She also lost Kensington and Canterbury - even Balfour held Canterbury although (buffs nails) one rather brilliant poster here suggested it might be vulnerable to Labour given its profile.

    That is not the sign of a successful strategy.
    Morning all,

    There is a bleak assessment of Tories in this week's Spectator. The article is mainly about London, where changing demographics and attitudes mean the party is close to full panic over prospects this spring.

    But it also discusses wider issues e.g. ageing membership, reluctance to canvas in the way that young Corbynites do, split between urban views and the Shire Tories represented by May.
    As it happens, some of the Conservatives' very best results in 2017 were in urban areas.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I am worried by the massive over valuing of so many tech companies, very few who are making money and of course all that money people have pumped into crypto.

    Car loans have sometimes been tipped as the next big bubble.

    Don't have a car loan, have an aged diesel (and an aged petrol actually as well). Does anyone with more knowledge than me have any explanation as to why these are a potential problem?
    I don't have specialist knowledge but I understand the concern is that car companies may be committed to taking back cars at the end of their leases at prices that are higher than their resale values. That's because second hand car prices have plummeted, particularly on the diesels that were very popular purchases a couple of years ago.
    Also, once again, easy credit has cannibalised future demand. That is why new car sales are now falling. The car companies created this demand for their product by effectively standing behind much of the credit. Now they find themselves with falling demand and serious bills starting to accrue.

    When I bought my (marvellous) nearly new Jag I was given £1000 off the price to take out a £10,000 loan from Jaguar. In 6 months, during which it will accrue just under £500 of interest, I can pay off the full loan without penalty. It may have incentivised me to buy my car but it is the economics of the mad house.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,592
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If we could have an 84 point turnaround in five months last year it can happen again.

    That's your reason.
    Except we didn't.
    You're right. My mistake.

    It was in four months.

    Look at the graph, which is what I am talking about.

    Yes, May just about clung on. She was expected to win over 400 seats including places like Bolsover and West Bromwich West. That simply didn't happen and the campaign, which drove floating voters to Corbyn, seems to have been a big problem.
    The fact she was overconfident and aimed for a landslide and winning seats even Thatcher never won was unrealistic, however she did still win over 60 more seats than Corbyn and keeping them will be less difficult than winning Bolsover.

    Her biggest mistake, the dementia tax, has also been scrapped
    She won Mansfield and Copeland. A real landslide wasn't quite as far out as you are suggesting.

    She also lost Kensington and Canterbury - even Balfour held Canterbury although (buffs nails) one rather brilliant poster here suggested it might be vulnerable to Labour given its profile.

    That is not the sign of a successful strategy.
    Mansfield had a 2015 majority of 5,000, Bolsover of 11,000.

    Canterbury was lost because of tuition fees levels and interest rates compared to Corbyn's promise to scrap them which was more Osborne's fault than May's, the Tories won Mansfield and Copeland because of Brexit but lost Kensington because of Brexit
    I can't see Canterbury or Kensington coming back next time, because the voting coalitions and demographics are changing.

    I think May could have won 340-350 seats with a good campaign on 43-44% of the vote. I don't believe, in hindsight of course, her chances were much higher than that.

    There are a number of seats in the midlands and north she should have been able to win, and a few others, like Portsmouth South, Stockton South and High Peak, that she shouldn't have really lost.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 817

    FPT

    Mortimer said:

    Currently, the EU are trying to pass barmy legislation ('anti terror', apparently - though what printed books from 1767 have to do with terror funding, no-one seems to be able to say) that could cripple the entire antiques industry.

    Your move.
    Instead of shamelessly indulging in speculative whataboutery you could try responding to the detailed, calm and poignant points made in the blog, by someone who epitomises everything your party used to stand for - free enterprise, hard work and self sacrifice.

    The Tory brand will never recover from the damage done by Brexit.

    Why do you think that? The Conservative Party has been around for a long time, and has done many controversial things, and yet still has millions of people voting for it. The idea that Brexit is somehow unique is a little odd.

    Having said that, no party has a right to exist as a force, which the liberals learnt in the early decades of the last century. But that applies to Labour as much as the Conservatives.
    The fact you ask that question suggests you didn’t read the blog.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 27,715
    Since 2016, a number of high profile ‘Revocateurs’, among them Tony Blair, Alastair Campbell and Andrew Adonis, have appealed for a fresh referendum on the EU in Britain. Leaving aside the complex practicalities and politics of the ‘neverendum’ idea, Oliver Daddow (University of Nottingham) argues there is no evidence either that Revocateurs were the victims in Act One of the ‘Britain and Europe’ story, or that they possess the credibility to play the heroes of Act Two. Revocateurs need to have more regard for history as it happened, not as they choose to rewrite it now.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/04/10/brexit-and-british-exceptionalism-the-impossible-challenge-for-remainers/#comment-36040
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,547
    We did warn TSE that wearing the full Liverpool kit to the game last night might not be a good idea...

    Families are left terrified as brawl breaks out in stands at the Man City-Liverpool match when a Reds fan among the home fans celebrates his team scoring

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5601081/Liverpool-fans-attacked-Etihad-celebrating-goal-sat-Manchester-City-end.html
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,759

    HYUFD said:

    Her biggest mistake, the dementia tax, has also been scrapped

    But the underlying issue hasn't gone away. For any party.
    Indeed and it's going to come back in a big way as local authority budgets continue to be squeezed. There are proposals, I gather, in the pipeline for the autumn but the Devil will doubtless be in the detail.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,340

    FPT

    Mortimer said:

    Currently, the EU are trying to pass barmy legislation ('anti terror', apparently - though what printed books from 1767 have to do with terror funding, no-one seems to be able to say) that could cripple the entire antiques industry.

    Your move.
    Instead of shamelessly indulging in speculative whataboutery you could try responding to the detailed, calm and poignant points made in the blog, by someone who epitomises everything your party used to stand for - free enterprise, hard work and self sacrifice.

    The Tory brand will never recover from the damage done by Brexit.

    Why do you think that? The Conservative Party has been around for a long time, and has done many controversial things, and yet still has millions of people voting for it. The idea that Brexit is somehow unique is a little odd.

    Having said that, no party has a right to exist as a force, which the liberals learnt in the early decades of the last century. But that applies to Labour as much as the Conservatives.
    The fact you ask that question suggests you didn’t read the blog.
    The fact you said that suggests you don't have an answer. ;)
This discussion has been closed.