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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s by-elections: A LAB & CON hold plus a CON loss to

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited April 13 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s by-elections: A LAB & CON hold plus a CON loss to LD on a 41% swing

St. Olaves on St. Edmundsbury (Lab defence) Result: Lab 365 (59% +27% on last time), Con 150 (24% -7% on last time), Ind 77 (12% -26% on last time), Lib Dem 31 (5%, no candidate last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 215 (35%) on a swing of 17% from Con to Lab (26.5% from Ind to Lab)

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Comments

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,952
    edited April 13
    Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.

    F1: having a look at potential qualifying bets but may be a little while due to markets warming up.

    Edited extra bit: and the Vanilla icons are back. Huzzah!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469
    Sod it, curse of the Nude Fred (but actually it comes in better on this one):
    ydoethur said:
  • ydoethur said:

    Sod it, curse of the Nude Fred (but actually it comes in better on this one):

    ydoethur said:
    Cheers.
  • Astonished the swing wasn’t larger in Northamptonshire given how badly the Tory council have messed up there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,423
    I wonder if, with the squeeze on local authority budgets in general, there is going to be something of an anti-incumbent swing in a number of areas in May? The by-election results this year have certainly been all over the place.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,090
    Tories doing badly in the south, and better in the north ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,090

    Astonished the swing wasn’t larger in Northamptonshire given how badly the Tory council have messed up there.

    I leave Killamarsh, and it turns blue. If the Tories were to give me a million quid I could try the same trick in Bassetlaw.
  • The country has moved on from Enoch Powell’s bigotry.

    Today the Tory party literally has a black MP with the surname ‘Bad Enoch’
  • Pulpstar said:

    Astonished the swing wasn’t larger in Northamptonshire given how badly the Tory council have messed up there.

    I leave Killamarsh, and it turns blue. If the Tories were to give me a million quid I could try the same trick in Bassetlaw.
    Fancy a vote swap again?

    I reckon you’d have more chance of winning this time than moi.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,090

    Pulpstar said:

    Astonished the swing wasn’t larger in Northamptonshire given how badly the Tory council have messed up there.

    I leave Killamarsh, and it turns blue. If the Tories were to give me a million quid I could try the same trick in Bassetlaw.
    Fancy a vote swap again?

    I reckon you’d have more chance of winning this time than moi.
    Shhhhh :)
    Though a vote for Labour in Bassetlaw is a vote for Brexit ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 27,715

    The country has moved on from Enoch Powell’s bigotry.

    Today the Tory party literally has a black MP with the surname ‘Bad Enoch’
    I suggest you read the thread. Labour do not emerge well out of it either.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    ydoethur said:

    Sod it, curse of the Nude Fred (but actually it comes in better on this one):

    ydoethur said:
    I don't get the table of 10 councils to watch, it is simply blank. Can anyone else see it?

    I was surprised that Labour have so many more seats in this cycle than the Tories. I am used to the Tories being fairly dominant in local government in England. They really did very well in these seats in 2014. One wonders how much room there is for improvement. My gut feel is that 200 net is quite a tough ask for Labour.

    Are we confident that UKIP will simply not be standing in these elections? Presumably some of their councillors will be standing as independents, as in Thurrock.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,090
    DavidL said:


    Are we confident that UKIP will simply not be standing in these elections? Presumably some of their councillors will be standing as independents, as in Thurrock.

    Doesn't matter if they do, they're as dead as a dodo. The UKIP vote has dispersed back to the main parties.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469

    Astonished the swing wasn’t larger in Northamptonshire given how badly the Tory council have messed up there.

    It would appear from my friends in Northants that most people blame the late Chief Executive, not the council.

    Now, that's on paper a silly position. The council are responsible for monitoring the CEO, and sacking said CEO if s/he proves utterly incompetent and unfit for purpose. However, the sad truth is that almost no council CEOs (or to give them their former titles, Clerks to the Council) are anything other than fat, lazy, dishonest and incompetent retards unfit to run a sweet shop. The one in Northants was exceptional only in getting caught. There is for example one in Wales who is far worse - indeed, is under constant police investigation - but hangs on to the job because the fee to get rid of the individual in question is £600,000, which the council can't afford.

    While it is well paid, for some reason it doesn't attract good candidates. So there is an issue about managing them and I frankly don't know what the alternative is. I would like to see them renamed Clerks, however, if only to cut their egos down a bit.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,213
    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.
  • The country has moved on from Enoch Powell’s bigotry.

    Today the Tory party literally has a black MP with the surname ‘Bad Enoch’
    I suggest you read the thread. Labour do not emerge well out of it either.
    I’ve read it. I know about the douchebaggery of Harold Wilson.

    Still doesn’t excuse Enoch Powell.

    I might do a thread on Powell this weekend.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,480
    Pulpstar said:

    Astonished the swing wasn’t larger in Northamptonshire given how badly the Tory council have messed up there.

    I leave Killamarsh, and it turns blue. If the Tories were to give me a million quid I could try the same trick in Bassetlaw.
    How much for Islington?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,090
    ydoethur said:

    Astonished the swing wasn’t larger in Northamptonshire given how badly the Tory council have messed up there.

    It would appear from my friends in Northants that most people blame the late Chief Executive, not the council.

    Now, that's on paper a silly position. The council are responsible for monitoring the CEO, and sacking said CEO if s/he proves utterly incompetent and unfit for purpose. However, the sad truth is that almost no council CEOs (or to give them their former titles, Clerks to the Council) are anything other than fat, lazy, dishonest and incompetent retards unfit to run a sweet shop. The one in Northants was exceptional only in getting caught. There is for example one in Wales who is far worse - indeed, is under constant police investigation - but hangs on to the job because the fee to get rid of the individual in question is £600,000, which the council can't afford.

    While it is well paid, for some reason it doesn't attract good candidates. So there is an issue about managing them and I frankly don't know what the alternative is. I would like to see them renamed Clerks, however, if only to cut their egos down a bit.
    I'd have thought the best way to recruit a council chief exec was to go into a final CIPFA exam hall and tell the hall before the exam "If you get more than 80% in this exam, give a ring to this number."
    That'd get a very smart, able & young candidate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,697
    edited April 13
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sod it, curse of the Nude Fred (but actually it comes in better on this one):

    ydoethur said:
    I don't get the table of 10 councils to watch, it is simply blank. Can anyone else see it?

    I was surprised that Labour have so many more seats in this cycle than the Tories. I am used to the Tories being fairly dominant in local government in England. They really did very well in these seats in 2014. One wonders how much room there is for improvement. My gut feel is that 200 net is quite a tough ask for Labour.

    Are we confident that UKIP will simply not be standing in these elections? Presumably some of their councillors will be standing as independents, as in Thurrock.
    Yes most of the council seats up in May were last up in 2014 when Labour won the most seats and most votes.

    Most of the seats up in council by elections, including the Chichester one the LDs won last night, were last up in 2015 when the Tories comfortably won most votes and seats.

    So it is not impossible there could even be a small swing to the Tories outside of London in May but next May there is likely to be a significant swing to Labour and the LDs
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 27,715

    The country has moved on from Enoch Powell’s bigotry.

    Today the Tory party literally has a black MP with the surname ‘Bad Enoch’
    I suggest you read the thread. Labour do not emerge well out of it either.
    I’ve read it. I know about the douchebaggery of Harold Wilson.

    Still doesn’t excuse Enoch Powell.

    I might do a thread on Powell this weekend.
    It does illustrate the power of rhetoric - Powell is remembered for the speech, Wilson stripping 200,000 Brits of their citizenship forgotten.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469
    edited April 13
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Astonished the swing wasn’t larger in Northamptonshire given how badly the Tory council have messed up there.

    It would appear from my friends in Northants that most people blame the late Chief Executive, not the council.

    Now, that's on paper a silly position. The council are responsible for monitoring the CEO, and sacking said CEO if s/he proves utterly incompetent and unfit for purpose. However, the sad truth is that almost no council CEOs (or to give them their former titles, Clerks to the Council) are anything other than fat, lazy, dishonest and incompetent retards unfit to run a sweet shop. The one in Northants was exceptional only in getting caught. There is for example one in Wales who is far worse - indeed, is under constant police investigation - but hangs on to the job because the fee to get rid of the individual in question is £600,000, which the council can't afford.

    While it is well paid, for some reason it doesn't attract good candidates. So there is an issue about managing them and I frankly don't know what the alternative is. I would like to see them renamed Clerks, however, if only to cut their egos down a bit.
    I'd have thought the best way to recruit a council chief exec was to go into a final CIPFA exam hall and tell the hall before the exam "If you get more than 80% in this exam, give a ring to this number."
    That'd get a very smart, able & young candidate.
    It could hardly be worse than whatever they're doing at the moment.

    One friend of mine who used to work for NCC actually gave it as his opinion that the only way to resolve the situation they're in is to abolish the council, make the entire workforce redundant and start again from scratch.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,219
    edited April 13
    FPT

    This is Wales Conservative Policy since October 2017

    (Long before Corbyn came up with his hair brained conditional policy)

    Welsh Conservatives have pledged to give free bus travel to all 16-24 year olds in Wales, and have urged Labour ministers to do the same.

    The Green Card - which the Tories said could cost up to £25m a year - would also give a third off rail tickets.

    Education spokesman Darren Millar said young people suffered high car insurance and the lowest wages.

    The Welsh Government dismissed the plan as "fantasy economics", saying it would consult on a new discount travel pass.

    Mr Millar said the Welsh Conservatives' "exciting offer for young people" would also protect the environment and help save local bus routes from the axe. His colleague Russell George, the Tories' economy spokesman, added that travel costs could be a "huge barrier" to education, training and job opportunities.

    A Welsh Government spokesman said: "These Tory proposals have been made up on the back of a fag packet.

    "To think you can provide 350,000 people with free bus travel and a third off rail fares for £25m is fantasy
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,434
    Weird thing. Lib Dems show up in Chichester and they easily win the seat. Why weren't they there before?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,219
    FF43 said:

    Weird thing. Lib Dems show up in Chichester and they easily win the seat. Why weren't they there before?

    Were they standing as Independent
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,665

    The country has moved on from Enoch Powell’s bigotry.

    Today the Tory party literally has a black MP with the surname ‘Bad Enoch’
    Nominative determinism?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 687
    edited April 13

    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.

    Calling HYUFD, who will pop up shortly to inform us that the Labour candidate in St Olaves was really a Leave supporting Shire Tory!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,496
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Astonished the swing wasn’t larger in Northamptonshire given how badly the Tory council have messed up there.

    It would appear from my friends in Northants that most people blame the late Chief Executive, not the council.

    Now, that's on paper a silly position. The council are responsible for monitoring the CEO, and sacking said CEO if s/he proves utterly incompetent and unfit for purpose. However, the sad truth is that almost no council CEOs (or to give them their former titles, Clerks to the Council) are anything other than fat, lazy, dishonest and incompetent retards unfit to run a sweet shop. The one in Northants was exceptional only in getting caught. There is for example one in Wales who is far worse - indeed, is under constant police investigation - but hangs on to the job because the fee to get rid of the individual in question is £600,000, which the council can't afford.

    While it is well paid, for some reason it doesn't attract good candidates. So there is an issue about managing them and I frankly don't know what the alternative is. I would like to see them renamed Clerks, however, if only to cut their egos down a bit.
    I'd have thought the best way to recruit a council chief exec was to go into a final CIPFA exam hall and tell the hall before the exam "If you get more than 80% in this exam, give a ring to this number."
    That'd get a very smart, able & young candidate.
    It could hardly be worse than whatever they're doing at the moment.

    One friend of mine who used to work for NCC actually gave it as his opinion that the only way to resolve the situation they're in is to abolish the council, make the entire workforce redundant and start again from scratch.
    Like Ireland in 1916. Which of course they didn't do.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:


    Are we confident that UKIP will simply not be standing in these elections? Presumably some of their councillors will be standing as independents, as in Thurrock.

    Doesn't matter if they do, they're as dead as a dodo. The UKIP vote has dispersed back to the main parties.
    Don't disagree. They got 18% the last time so that is a lot of votes sloshing about. I would have thought that this would make prediction more difficult.

    I see that the Lib Dems got a NEV of 11% last time. They will do well to match that. Labour was 1% ahead of the Tories. I find it a little surprising, given current polling suggests a Tory lead of approximately 3%, that almost all of the councils to watch (there is a button to press through to them, I was being stupid) are potential Labour gains off the Tories. But the dispersion of UKIP makes such small swings largely irrelevant.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,697
    edited April 13
    Anazina said:

    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.

    Calling HYUFD, who will pop up shortly to inform us that the Labour candidate in St Olaves was really a Leave supporting Shire Tory!
    As I said most of the seats up in council by elections were last up in 2015 when the Tories won comfortably, the seats up this May were last up in 2014 when Labour won
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,090
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Astonished the swing wasn’t larger in Northamptonshire given how badly the Tory council have messed up there.

    It would appear from my friends in Northants that most people blame the late Chief Executive, not the council.

    Now, that's on paper a silly position. The council are responsible for monitoring the CEO, and sacking said CEO if s/he proves utterly incompetent and unfit for purpose. However, the sad truth is that almost no council CEOs (or to give them their former titles, Clerks to the Council) are anything other than fat, lazy, dishonest and incompetent retards unfit to run a sweet shop. The one in Northants was exceptional only in getting caught. There is for example one in Wales who is far worse - indeed, is under constant police investigation - but hangs on to the job because the fee to get rid of the individual in question is £600,000, which the council can't afford.

    While it is well paid, for some reason it doesn't attract good candidates. So there is an issue about managing them and I frankly don't know what the alternative is. I would like to see them renamed Clerks, however, if only to cut their egos down a bit.
    I'd have thought the best way to recruit a council chief exec was to go into a final CIPFA exam hall and tell the hall before the exam "If you get more than 80% in this exam, give a ring to this number."
    That'd get a very smart, able & young candidate.
    It could hardly be worse than whatever they're doing at the moment.

    One friend of mine who used to work for NCC actually gave it as his opinion that the only way to resolve the situation they're in is to abolish the council, make the entire workforce redundant and start again from scratch.
    The entire CIPFA course is specifically built around local Gov't finance, personally I'm in industry so a CIMA man - but I feel it would be an approach that makes sense. I have no idea if local Gov't looks for CIPFA qualifications for senior people - but they probably should.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 687
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.

    Calling HYUFD, who will pop up shortly to inform us that the Labour candidate in St Olaves was really a Leave supporting Shire Tory!
    As I said most of the seats up in council by elections were last up in 2015 when the Tories won comfortably, the seats up this May were last up in 2014 when Labour won
    Chortle. Full marks.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,213
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.

    Calling HYUFD, who will pop up shortly to inform us that the Labour candidate in St Olaves was really a Leave supporting Shire Tory!
    As I said most of the seats up in council by elections were last up in 2015 when the Tories won comfortably, the seats up this May were last up in 2014 when Labour won
    When the minimum swing against you is 17%, that doesn't really cut it as an explanation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,206
    That is a good thread. I am old enough to remember the Ugandan Asian crisis (and approving of Heath's reaction to it).

    Powell's ridiculous 'Tiber, foaming with much blood' hyperbole was proved conclusively wrong, and he deserves the contempt with which many remember him. Highly intelligent, but deeply stupid is probably a fair description.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,219
    edited April 13
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.

    Calling HYUFD, who will pop up shortly to inform us that the Labour candidate in St Olaves was really a Leave supporting Shire Tory!
    As I said most of the seats up in council by elections were last up in 2015 when the Tories won comfortably, the seats up this May were last up in 2014 when Labour won
    Chortle. Full marks.
    HYUFD is to be respected for his knowledge and the way he promotes the cause to be fair.

    But I do like your riposte
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,500

    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.

    No positives but getting knickers in a twist about a sample size of 3 seats where the highest winning candidate got 444 votes ?

    I'd be surprised if May resigns on the back of this "Bad night for the Toaariees".

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,697

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.

    Calling HYUFD, who will pop up shortly to inform us that the Labour candidate in St Olaves was really a Leave supporting Shire Tory!
    As I said most of the seats up in council by elections were last up in 2015 when the Tories won comfortably, the seats up this May were last up in 2014 when Labour won
    When the minimum swing against you is 17%, that doesn't really cut it as an explanation.
    The LDs also won the county council seat Rogate sits in last May and stood the same candidate again this time and her previous result clearly suggests she is effective.

    The by election was caused by the MP resigning her council seat and as the general election proved voters do not like unnecessary elections
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,090

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.

    Calling HYUFD, who will pop up shortly to inform us that the Labour candidate in St Olaves was really a Leave supporting Shire Tory!
    As I said most of the seats up in council by elections were last up in 2015 when the Tories won comfortably, the seats up this May were last up in 2014 when Labour won
    When the minimum swing against you is 17%, that doesn't really cut it as an explanation.
    Yet they're on 43% in the polls. The headline numbers may not be moving much, but where the votes are coming from could be changing ?
    Tough to extrapolate from 3 small local elections though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,102
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.

    Calling HYUFD, who will pop up shortly to inform us that the Labour candidate in St Olaves was really a Leave supporting Shire Tory!
    As I said most of the seats up in council by elections were last up in 2015 when the Tories won comfortably, the seats up this May were last up in 2014 when Labour won
    Chortle. Full marks.
    I think @HYUFD makes a fair point. The other thing that we never learn about these by elections, is turnout. How many people voted last time, and how many people voted yesterday?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,952
    Mr. B, I suspect a lot of people will disagree vehemently with Powell's comments on black migrants, but wonder whether, culturally, that is happening [at least to some degree]. The police are very culturally sensitive these days.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 127


    I’ve read it. I know about the douchebaggery of Harold Wilson.

    Still doesn’t excuse Enoch Powell.

    I might do a thread on Powell this weekend.

    Just post a link to Anthony Well's 'What if Gordon Banks Had Played?'

    Can't find it now..... Good job I saved it as a Word document all those years ago.



  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,219
    tlg86 said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.

    Calling HYUFD, who will pop up shortly to inform us that the Labour candidate in St Olaves was really a Leave supporting Shire Tory!
    As I said most of the seats up in council by elections were last up in 2015 when the Tories won comfortably, the seats up this May were last up in 2014 when Labour won
    Chortle. Full marks.
    I think @HYUFD makes a fair point. The other thing that we never learn about these by elections, is turnout. How many people voted last time, and how many people voted yesterday?
    I have voted Lib Dem in locals on many occasions mostly because I knew the candidate socially. It never had an impact on my national voting intention
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,480
    FF43 said:

    Weird thing. Lib Dems show up in Chichester and they easily win the seat. Why weren't they there before?

    Sometimes it's just a cock-up like they missed the deadline for nominations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,090
    TGOHF said:

    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.

    No positives but getting knickers in a twist about a sample size of 3 seats where the highest winning candidate got 444 votes ?

    I'd be surprised if May resigns on the back of this "Bad night for the Toaariees".

    495 votes for the Tories last night in the midlands ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,500

    Mr. B, I suspect a lot of people will disagree vehemently with Powell's comments on black migrants, but wonder whether, culturally, that is happening [at least to some degree]. The police are very culturally sensitive these days.

    Powell didn't predict that the majority of any blood flowing would be black on black violence.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483

    FPT

    This is Wales Conservative Policy since October 2017

    (Long before Corbyn came up with his hair brained conditional policy)

    Welsh Conservatives have pledged to give free bus travel to all 16-24 year olds in Wales, and have urged Labour ministers to do the same.

    The Green Card - which the Tories said could cost up to £25m a year - would also give a third off rail tickets.

    Education spokesman Darren Millar said young people suffered high car insurance and the lowest wages.

    The Welsh Government dismissed the plan as "fantasy economics", saying it would consult on a new discount travel pass.

    Mr Millar said the Welsh Conservatives' "exciting offer for young people" would also protect the environment and help save local bus routes from the axe. His colleague Russell George, the Tories' economy spokesman, added that travel costs could be a "huge barrier" to education, training and job opportunities.

    A Welsh Government spokesman said: "These Tory proposals have been made up on the back of a fag packet.

    "To think you can provide 350,000 people with free bus travel and a third off rail fares for £25m is fantasy

    That's £71.42 a head per annum or £1.37 a week. That seems...optimistic.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,843
    Yesss! I got a ticket for part 2 of The Inheritance.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,480
    DavidL said:

    FPT

    This is Wales Conservative Policy since October 2017

    (Long before Corbyn came up with his hair brained conditional policy)

    Welsh Conservatives have pledged to give free bus travel to all 16-24 year olds in Wales, and have urged Labour ministers to do the same.

    The Green Card - which the Tories said could cost up to £25m a year - would also give a third off rail tickets.

    Education spokesman Darren Millar said young people suffered high car insurance and the lowest wages.

    The Welsh Government dismissed the plan as "fantasy economics", saying it would consult on a new discount travel pass.

    Mr Millar said the Welsh Conservatives' "exciting offer for young people" would also protect the environment and help save local bus routes from the axe. His colleague Russell George, the Tories' economy spokesman, added that travel costs could be a "huge barrier" to education, training and job opportunities.

    A Welsh Government spokesman said: "These Tory proposals have been made up on the back of a fag packet.

    "To think you can provide 350,000 people with free bus travel and a third off rail fares for £25m is fantasy

    That's £71.42 a head per annum or £1.37 a week. That seems...optimistic.
    How many of the olde rof thoe young people already have cars though? Or live in areas with a near non-existent bus service? I dunno, but I suspect much of the bus travel useage will be focused on a few big towns and cities, where the most profitable routes could still survive with a somewhat reduced revenue.

    And who knows, promoted by images of Corbyn sat on the floor of a bus, they could become a "cool" means of transport....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,206

    Mr. B, I suspect a lot of people will disagree vehemently with Powell's comments on black migrants, but wonder whether, culturally, that is happening [at least to some degree]. The police are very culturally sensitive these days.

    Powell's speech was in reaction to the prospect of African Asian migrants.
    And this was utter bilge, on several counts:
    Like the Roman, I seem to see "the River Tiber foaming with much blood". That tragic and intractable phenomenon which we watch with horror on the other side of the Atlantic but which there is interwoven with the history and existence of the States itself, is coming upon us here by our own volition and our own neglect. Indeed, it has all but come. In numerical terms, it will be of American proportions long before the end of the century. ...

  • I’ve read it. I know about the douchebaggery of Harold Wilson.

    Still doesn’t excuse Enoch Powell.

    I might do a thread on Powell this weekend.

    Just post a link to Anthony Well's 'What if Gordon Banks Had Played?'

    Can't find it now..... Good job I saved it as a Word document all those years ago.

    Where Prof Ford gets it wrong is that the whole brouhaha was over Sikhs threatening to set themselves on fire if they didn't get their way about wearing turbans on buses, and a white chap threatening to set himself on fire if the Sikhs get their way.

    The irony is that yards from where Powell made his speech is the JLR factory owned by Indians, which is responsible for so many jobs in that area. So Powell was right, the black man does have the whip hand.

    I'll also mention that Powell is sub human Mark Reckless scum, plus I'll also mention that Powell was responsible for ruining the lives of more children than an average paedophile.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,952
    Mr. B, yeah, I remember hearing the 'whip hand' line, which turned out to have no truth to it whatsoever.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,759
    DavidL said:



    I see that the Lib Dems got a NEV of 11% last time. They will do well to match that. Labour was 1% ahead of the Tories. I find it a little surprising, given current polling suggests a Tory lead of approximately 3%, that almost all of the councils to watch (there is a button to press through to them, I was being stupid) are potential Labour gains off the Tories. But the dispersion of UKIP makes such small swings largely irrelevant.

    I can't speak for the world beyond London but in London the LD vote is going to be concentrated in Kingston, Richmond and Sutton with a few other patches of support. The hope for the Conservatives has to be picking up ex-UKIP seats but there aren't many of those (Bromley, Havering, Bexley) and that might inflate the seat numbers just as it did in the County Council elections in 2017.

    As was stated in the podcast the other day, Labour could hoover up a lost of extra seats without it having a big impact on Council control. Conservative representation on Councils they either controlled or were close to control in the not-too-distant past (places like Enfield, Redbridge, Brent, Merton) could be sharply reduced with more Councils going 100% Labour.

    That will be ignored by the pro-Conservative spinners who will concentrate on Councils retained (especially if Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster are held or Havering goes to majority Conservative control).

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    This is Wales Conservative Policy since October 2017

    (Long before Corbyn came up with his hair brained conditional policy)

    Welsh Conservatives have pledged to give free bus travel to all 16-24 year olds in Wales, and have urged Labour ministers to do the same.

    The Green Card - which the Tories said could cost up to £25m a year - would also give a third off rail tickets.

    Education spokesman Darren Millar said young people suffered high car insurance and the lowest wages.

    The Welsh Government dismissed the plan as "fantasy economics", saying it would consult on a new discount travel pass.

    Mr Millar said the Welsh Conservatives' "exciting offer for young people" would also protect the environment and help save local bus routes from the axe. His colleague Russell George, the Tories' economy spokesman, added that travel costs could be a "huge barrier" to education, training and job opportunities.

    A Welsh Government spokesman said: "These Tory proposals have been made up on the back of a fag packet.

    "To think you can provide 350,000 people with free bus travel and a third off rail fares for £25m is fantasy

    That's £71.42 a head per annum or £1.37 a week. That seems...optimistic.
    How many of the olde rof thoe young people already have cars though? Or live in areas with a near non-existent bus service? I dunno, but I suspect much of the bus travel useage will be focused on a few big towns and cities, where the most profitable routes could still survive with a somewhat reduced revenue.

    And who knows, promoted by images of Corbyn sat on the floor of a bus, they could become a "cool" means of transport....
    I think, if its free, an average of slightly less than 1 trip a week is on the low side. For every non user there will be one using the bus back and forward to school/college/work 10 times a week. The Tory party getting accused of "fantasy economics" by Labour is embarrassing but, frankly, merited in this case.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,247
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    This is Wales Conservative Policy since October 2017

    (Long before Corbyn came up with his hair brained conditional policy)

    Welsh Conservatives have pledged to give free bus travel to all 16-24 year olds in Wales, and have urged Labour ministers to do the same.

    The Green Card - which the Tories said could cost up to £25m a year - would also give a third off rail tickets.

    Education spokesman Darren Millar said young people suffered high car insurance and the lowest wages.

    The Welsh Government dismissed the plan as "fantasy economics", saying it would consult on a new discount travel pass.

    Mr Millar said the Welsh Conservatives' "exciting offer for young people" would also protect the environment and help save local bus routes from the axe. His colleague Russell George, the Tories' economy spokesman, added that travel costs could be a "huge barrier" to education, training and job opportunities.

    A Welsh Government spokesman said: "These Tory proposals have been made up on the back of a fag packet.

    "To think you can provide 350,000 people with free bus travel and a third off rail fares for £25m is fantasy

    That's £71.42 a head per annum or £1.37 a week. That seems...optimistic.
    How many of the olde rof thoe young people already have cars though? Or live in areas with a near non-existent bus service? I dunno, but I suspect much of the bus travel useage will be focused on a few big towns and cities, where the most profitable routes could still survive with a somewhat reduced revenue.

    And who knows, promoted by images of Corbyn sat on the floor of a bus, they could become a "cool" means of transport....
    I think, if its free, an average of slightly less than 1 trip a week is on the low side. For every non user there will be one using the bus back and forward to school/college/work 10 times a week. The Tory party getting accused of "fantasy economics" by Labour is embarrassing but, frankly, merited in this case.
    If lots are using a bus zero times, it is a bit fake to say you are benefitting them with the policy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,314
    TGOHF said:

    Mr. B, I suspect a lot of people will disagree vehemently with Powell's comments on black migrants, but wonder whether, culturally, that is happening [at least to some degree]. The police are very culturally sensitive these days.

    Powell didn't predict that the majority of any blood flowing would be black on black violence.
    I'm sure that would cheer the old crocodile up.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    This is Wales Conservative Policy since October 2017

    (Long before Corbyn came up with his hair brained conditional policy)

    Welsh Conservatives have pledged to give free bus travel to all 16-24 year olds in Wales, and have urged Labour ministers to do the same.

    The Green Card - which the Tories said could cost up to £25m a year - would also give a third off rail tickets.

    Education spokesman Darren Millar said young people suffered high car insurance and the lowest wages.

    The Welsh Government dismissed the plan as "fantasy economics", saying it would consult on a new discount travel pass.

    Mr Millar said the Welsh Conservatives' "exciting offer for young people" would also protect the environment and help save local bus routes from the axe. His colleague Russell George, the Tories' economy spokesman, added that travel costs could be a "huge barrier" to education, training and job opportunities.

    A Welsh Government spokesman said: "These Tory proposals have been made up on the back of a fag packet.

    "To think you can provide 350,000 people with free bus travel and a third off rail fares for £25m is fantasy

    That's £71.42 a head per annum or £1.37 a week. That seems...optimistic.
    How many of the olde rof thoe young people already have cars though? Or live in areas with a near non-existent bus service? I dunno, but I suspect much of the bus travel useage will be focused on a few big towns and cities, where the most profitable routes could still survive with a somewhat reduced revenue.

    And who knows, promoted by images of Corbyn sat on the floor of a bus, they could become a "cool" means of transport....
    I think, if its free, an average of slightly less than 1 trip a week is on the low side. For every non user there will be one using the bus back and forward to school/college/work 10 times a week. The Tory party getting accused of "fantasy economics" by Labour is embarrassing but, frankly, merited in this case.
    If lots are using a bus zero times, it is a bit fake to say you are benefitting them with the policy.
    If you're a motorist and this policy keeps riff raff on a bus instead of driving, there can be a benefit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:



    I see that the Lib Dems got a NEV of 11% last time. They will do well to match that. Labour was 1% ahead of the Tories. I find it a little surprising, given current polling suggests a Tory lead of approximately 3%, that almost all of the councils to watch (there is a button to press through to them, I was being stupid) are potential Labour gains off the Tories. But the dispersion of UKIP makes such small swings largely irrelevant.

    I can't speak for the world beyond London but in London the LD vote is going to be concentrated in Kingston, Richmond and Sutton with a few other patches of support. The hope for the Conservatives has to be picking up ex-UKIP seats but there aren't many of those (Bromley, Havering, Bexley) and that might inflate the seat numbers just as it did in the County Council elections in 2017.

    As was stated in the podcast the other day, Labour could hoover up a lost of extra seats without it having a big impact on Council control. Conservative representation on Councils they either controlled or were close to control in the not-too-distant past (places like Enfield, Redbridge, Brent, Merton) could be sharply reduced with more Councils going 100% Labour.

    That will be ignored by the pro-Conservative spinners who will concentrate on Councils retained (especially if Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster are held or Havering goes to majority Conservative control).

    Whilst I appreciate the importance of council control locally I always think that the net councillors won/lost is more important nationally. Each councillor is, or should be, a means of contact with the population at large, a source of funds, a source of energy and commitment and an opportunity to bring in more activists. Cumulatively it would make a big difference to national performance as the Tories found in 1997 and the Lib Dems in 2015. In both cases their local base was hollowed out quite badly before the Westminster seats fell.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,440
    Nigelb said:

    Mr. B, I suspect a lot of people will disagree vehemently with Powell's comments on black migrants, but wonder whether, culturally, that is happening [at least to some degree]. The police are very culturally sensitive these days.

    Powell's speech was in reaction to the prospect of African Asian migrants.
    And this was utter bilge, on several counts:
    Like the Roman, I seem to see "the River Tiber foaming with much blood". That tragic and intractable phenomenon which we watch with horror on the other side of the Atlantic but which there is interwoven with the history and existence of the States itself, is coming upon us here by our own volition and our own neglect. Indeed, it has all but come. In numerical terms, it will be of American proportions long before the end of the century. ...
    For someone who was apparently so intelligent and erudite as well as having a comprehensive knowledge of Parliamentary procedure and history, he really, really didn't understand his fellow countrymen very well at all. Of course there was the usual 10% -15% who would be irreconcilable but generally as soon as Brits got to know their new co-workers and neighbours they struck up friendships and relationships that swamped any of the ideological rubbish he was spouting.

    You only have to have watched the recent documentary about skinheads (and if you haven't then do as it was brilliant) to see how the average youth in the late 60s really couldn't give a toss about what colour their mate's skin was.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469
    And the cricket season is off to its traditional mid-April start:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/43725198

    Proving yet again that the ECB couldn't run a party in a brewery.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    This is Wales Conservative Policy since October 2017

    (Long before Corbyn came up with his hair brained conditional policy)

    Welsh Conservatives have pledged to give free bus travel to all 16-24 year olds in Wales, and have urged Labour ministers to do the same.

    The Green Card - which the Tories said could cost up to £25m a year - would also give a third off rail tickets.

    Education spokesman Darren Millar said young people suffered high car insurance and the lowest wages.

    The Welsh Government dismissed the plan as "fantasy economics", saying it would consult on a new discount travel pass.

    Mr Millar said the Welsh Conservatives' "exciting offer for young people" would also protect the environment and help save local bus routes from the axe. His colleague Russell George, the Tories' economy spokesman, added that travel costs could be a "huge barrier" to education, training and job opportunities.

    A Welsh Government spokesman said: "These Tory proposals have been made up on the back of a fag packet.

    "To think you can provide 350,000 people with free bus travel and a third off rail fares for £25m is fantasy

    That's £71.42 a head per annum or £1.37 a week. That seems...optimistic.
    How many of the olde rof thoe young people already have cars though? Or live in areas with a near non-existent bus service? I dunno, but I suspect much of the bus travel useage will be focused on a few big towns and cities, where the most profitable routes could still survive with a somewhat reduced revenue.

    And who knows, promoted by images of Corbyn sat on the floor of a bus, they could become a "cool" means of transport....
    I think, if its free, an average of slightly less than 1 trip a week is on the low side. For every non user there will be one using the bus back and forward to school/college/work 10 times a week. The Tory party getting accused of "fantasy economics" by Labour is embarrassing but, frankly, merited in this case.
    If lots are using a bus zero times, it is a bit fake to say you are benefitting them with the policy.
    That seems a different point. The criticism is the cost of the scheme and £25m for Wales doesn't cut it. It would probably cost at least 4x that much.

    Taking your point I agree. Its a policy that would benefit a minority considerably at the cost of the majority. Just as it does with pensioners.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,028

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. B, I suspect a lot of people will disagree vehemently with Powell's comments on black migrants, but wonder whether, culturally, that is happening [at least to some degree]. The police are very culturally sensitive these days.

    Powell's speech was in reaction to the prospect of African Asian migrants.
    And this was utter bilge, on several counts:
    Like the Roman, I seem to see "the River Tiber foaming with much blood". That tragic and intractable phenomenon which we watch with horror on the other side of the Atlantic but which there is interwoven with the history and existence of the States itself, is coming upon us here by our own volition and our own neglect. Indeed, it has all but come. In numerical terms, it will be of American proportions long before the end of the century. ...
    For someone who was apparently so intelligent and erudite as well as having a comprehensive knowledge of Parliamentary procedure and history, he really, really didn't understand his fellow countrymen very well at all. Of course there was the usual 10% -15% who would be irreconcilable but generally as soon as Brits got to know their new co-workers and neighbours they struck up friendships and relationships that swamped any of the ideological rubbish he was spouting.

    You only have to have watched the recent documentary about skinheads (and if you haven't then do as it was brilliant) to see how the average youth in the late 60s really couldn't give a toss about what colour their mate's skin was.

    Seconded on the skins documentary.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    There was a comment from Texas in an article linked to on here last week. "The only thing you find in the middle of the road is a dead armadillo."

    Pretty much summed up my thinking on new parties at the moment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. B, I suspect a lot of people will disagree vehemently with Powell's comments on black migrants, but wonder whether, culturally, that is happening [at least to some degree]. The police are very culturally sensitive these days.

    Powell's speech was in reaction to the prospect of African Asian migrants.
    And this was utter bilge, on several counts:
    Like the Roman, I seem to see "the River Tiber foaming with much blood". That tragic and intractable phenomenon which we watch with horror on the other side of the Atlantic but which there is interwoven with the history and existence of the States itself, is coming upon us here by our own volition and our own neglect. Indeed, it has all but come. In numerical terms, it will be of American proportions long before the end of the century. ...
    For someone who was apparently so intelligent and erudite as well as having a comprehensive knowledge of Parliamentary procedure and history, he really, really didn't understand his fellow countrymen very well at all. Of course there was the usual 10% -15% who would be irreconcilable but generally as soon as Brits got to know their new co-workers and neighbours they struck up friendships and relationships that swamped any of the ideological rubbish he was spouting.

    You only have to have watched the recent documentary about skinheads (and if you haven't then do as it was brilliant) to see how the average youth in the late 60s really couldn't give a toss about what colour their mate's skin was.

    Seconded on the skins documentary.
    Linky? still on catch up? If so what is the title? Sounds interesting.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,028
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. B, I suspect a lot of people will disagree vehemently with Powell's comments on black migrants, but wonder whether, culturally, that is happening [at least to some degree]. The police are very culturally sensitive these days.

    Powell's speech was in reaction to the prospect of African Asian migrants.
    And this was utter bilge, on several counts:
    Like the Roman, I seem to see "the River Tiber foaming with much blood". That tragic and intractable phenomenon which we watch with horror on the other side of the Atlantic but which there is interwoven with the history and existence of the States itself, is coming upon us here by our own volition and our own neglect. Indeed, it has all but come. In numerical terms, it will be of American proportions long before the end of the century. ...
    For someone who was apparently so intelligent and erudite as well as having a comprehensive knowledge of Parliamentary procedure and history, he really, really didn't understand his fellow countrymen very well at all. Of course there was the usual 10% -15% who would be irreconcilable but generally as soon as Brits got to know their new co-workers and neighbours they struck up friendships and relationships that swamped any of the ideological rubbish he was spouting.

    You only have to have watched the recent documentary about skinheads (and if you haven't then do as it was brilliant) to see how the average youth in the late 60s really couldn't give a toss about what colour their mate's skin was.

    Seconded on the skins documentary.
    Linky? still on catch up? If so what is the title? Sounds interesting.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,271
    edited April 13
    ydoethur said:

    And the cricket season is off to its traditional mid-April start:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/43725198

    Proving yet again that the ECB couldn't run a party in a brewery.

    Should they delay the start till May - same average rainfall of 37mm, spread over 14 days rather than 12) or the even wetter June (43mm, 12 days)? Or radically rejig the calendar so that cricket takes place in the three lowest rain day months - Nov, Dec, Jan? Or abolish themselves on the ground that trying to play cricket in the English climate is a mug's game?

    Edit: source http://www.holiday-weather.com/canterbury_gb/averages/
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 1,922
    Trump is facing serious accusations at home re possible participation in sexual activities involving urine.Peegate is consuming the POTUS so his mind is not on Syria,it is desperately trying to prove he is not an an urolagniac or a salirophiliac of any kind #PEEGATE
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    And the cricket season is off to its traditional mid-April start:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/43725198

    Proving yet again that the ECB couldn't run a party in a brewery.

    Should they delay the start till May - same average rainfall of 37mm, spread over 14 days rather than 12) or the even wetter June (43mm, 12 days)? Or radically rejig the calendar so that cricket takes place in the three lowest rain day months - Nov, Dec, Jan? Or abolish themselves on the ground that trying to play cricket in the English climate is a mug's game?

    Edit: source http://www.holiday-weather.com/canterbury_gb/averages/
    Its almost perverse that cricket was invented in England.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483

    Trump is facing serious accusations at home re possible participation in sexual activities involving urine.Peegate is consuming the POTUS so his mind is not on Syria,it is desperately trying to prove he is not an an urolagniac or a salirophiliac of any kind #PEEGATE

    Well that's a couple of new words. Not sure how useful they will be mind.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,271

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. B, I suspect a lot of people will disagree vehemently with Powell's comments on black migrants, but wonder whether, culturally, that is happening [at least to some degree]. The police are very culturally sensitive these days.

    Powell's speech was in reaction to the prospect of African Asian migrants.
    And this was utter bilge, on several counts:
    Like the Roman, I seem to see "the River Tiber foaming with much blood". That tragic and intractable phenomenon which we watch with horror on the other side of the Atlantic but which there is interwoven with the history and existence of the States itself, is coming upon us here by our own volition and our own neglect. Indeed, it has all but come. In numerical terms, it will be of American proportions long before the end of the century. ...
    For someone who was apparently so intelligent and erudite as well as having a comprehensive knowledge of Parliamentary procedure and history, he really, really didn't understand his fellow countrymen very well at all. Of course there was the usual 10% -15% who would be irreconcilable but generally as soon as Brits got to know their new co-workers and neighbours they struck up friendships and relationships that swamped any of the ideological rubbish he was spouting.

    You only have to have watched the recent documentary about skinheads (and if you haven't then do as it was brilliant) to see how the average youth in the late 60s really couldn't give a toss about what colour their mate's skin was.

    I am sure it is brilliant, but proving a point purportedly about society in general by reference to a documentary about late 60s skinheads looks a bit weak.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. B, I suspect a lot of people will disagree vehemently with Powell's comments on black migrants, but wonder whether, culturally, that is happening [at least to some degree]. The police are very culturally sensitive these days.

    Powell's speech was in reaction to the prospect of African Asian migrants.
    And this was utter bilge, on several counts:
    Like the Roman, I seem to see "the River Tiber foaming with much blood". That tragic and intractable phenomenon which we watch with horror on the other side of the Atlantic but which there is interwoven with the history and existence of the States itself, is coming upon us here by our own volition and our own neglect. Indeed, it has all but come. In numerical terms, it will be of American proportions long before the end of the century. ...
    For someone who was apparently so intelligent and erudite as well as having a comprehensive knowledge of Parliamentary procedure and history, he really, really didn't understand his fellow countrymen very well at all. Of course there was the usual 10% -15% who would be irreconcilable but generally as soon as Brits got to know their new co-workers and neighbours they struck up friendships and relationships that swamped any of the ideological rubbish he was spouting.

    You only have to have watched the recent documentary about skinheads (and if you haven't then do as it was brilliant) to see how the average youth in the late 60s really couldn't give a toss about what colour their mate's skin was.

    Seconded on the skins documentary.
    Linky? still on catch up? If so what is the title? Sounds interesting.
    Thanks
  • Trump is facing serious accusations at home re possible participation in sexual activities involving urine.Peegate is consuming the POTUS so his mind is not on Syria,it is desperately trying to prove he is not an an urolagniac or a salirophiliac of any kind #PEEGATE

    Please, the hashtag is #YesWeeCan
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,213
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Even the more enthusiastic Tories are going to struggle to find some positives in this set of results.

    Calling HYUFD, who will pop up shortly to inform us that the Labour candidate in St Olaves was really a Leave supporting Shire Tory!
    As I said most of the seats up in council by elections were last up in 2015 when the Tories won comfortably, the seats up this May were last up in 2014 when Labour won
    When the minimum swing against you is 17%, that doesn't really cut it as an explanation.
    Yet they're on 43% in the polls. The headline numbers may not be moving much, but where the votes are coming from could be changing ?
    Tough to extrapolate from 3 small local elections though.
    That is a huge question. It's one I'm starting to do a bit of work on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,469
    edited April 13
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    And the cricket season is off to its traditional mid-April start:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/43725198

    Proving yet again that the ECB couldn't run a party in a brewery.

    Should they delay the start till May - same average rainfall of 37mm, spread over 14 days rather than 12) or the even wetter June (43mm, 12 days)? Or radically rejig the calendar so that cricket takes place in the three lowest rain day months - Nov, Dec, Jan? Or abolish themselves on the ground that trying to play cricket in the English climate is a mug's game?

    Edit: source http://www.holiday-weather.com/canterbury_gb/averages/
    I'm not quite convinced by your source - the Met Office suggests there isn't a lot of difference between April and May and that May is slightly drier:

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gcqfkbwyz (picked for being the most central location in England I could see).

    However, in the warmer months - May, June, July and August - because the air is warmer and the ground is harder the moisture tends to dry more quickly.

    (Incidentally of course August is traditionally both the wettest month and the one with the greatest amount of sunshine.)
  • Arsenal v Atletico Madrid in Europa league semi final
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,670

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. B, I suspect a lot of people will disagree vehemently with Powell's comments on black migrants, but wonder whether, culturally, that is happening [at least to some degree]. The police are very culturally sensitive these days.

    Powell's speech was in reaction to the prospect of African Asian migrants.
    And this was utter bilge, on several counts:
    Like the Roman, I seem to see "the River Tiber foaming with much blood". That tragic and intractable phenomenon which we watch with horror on the other side of the Atlantic but which there is interwoven with the history and existence of the States itself, is coming upon us here by our own volition and our own neglect. Indeed, it has all but come. In numerical terms, it will be of American proportions long before the end of the century. ...
    For someone who was apparently so intelligent and erudite as well as having a comprehensive knowledge of Parliamentary procedure and history, he really, really didn't understand his fellow countrymen very well at all. Of course there was the usual 10% -15% who would be irreconcilable but generally as soon as Brits got to know their new co-workers and neighbours they struck up friendships and relationships that swamped any of the ideological rubbish he was spouting.

    You only have to have watched the recent documentary about skinheads (and if you haven't then do as it was brilliant) to see how the average youth in the late 60s really couldn't give a toss about what colour their mate's skin was.

    Skin colour matters for a person who is an 'other'; it doesn't matter when the person is a person.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    Scott_P said:
    Lord, that's painful. And not funny, of course.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,592
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Lord, that's painful. And not funny, of course.
    Adamstoon is cringeworthy on an almost daily basis.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,496

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. B, I suspect a lot of people will disagree vehemently with Powell's comments on black migrants, but wonder whether, culturally, that is happening [at least to some degree]. The police are very culturally sensitive these days.

    Powell's speech was in reaction to the prospect of African Asian migrants.
    And this was utter bilge, on several counts:
    Like the Roman, I seem to see "the River Tiber foaming with much blood". That tragic and intractable phenomenon which we watch with horror on the other side of the Atlantic but which there is interwoven with the history and existence of the States itself, is coming upon us here by our own volition and our own neglect. Indeed, it has all but come. In numerical terms, it will be of American proportions long before the end of the century. ...
    For someone who was apparently so intelligent and erudite as well as having a comprehensive knowledge of Parliamentary procedure and history, he really, really didn't understand his fellow countrymen very well at all. Of course there was the usual 10% -15% who would be irreconcilable but generally as soon as Brits got to know their new co-workers and neighbours they struck up friendships and relationships that swamped any of the ideological rubbish he was spouting.

    You only have to have watched the recent documentary about skinheads (and if you haven't then do as it was brilliant) to see how the average youth in the late 60s really couldn't give a toss about what colour their mate's skin was.

    Late 60s maybe. But later on (70s/80s) there were the football hooligan skinheads and the music skinheads. In London, for example, the football hooligan skinheads you could find down Brick Lane vs the RAR groups. And some of the music skinheads weren't quite as colour-blind as you say the 60s skinheads were (eg. Skrewdriver, etc).
  • Scott_P said:
    Someone needs to tell George to sack Adams and hire Matt.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,423
    Scott_P said:

    ttps://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/984736588210016261

    Huge over-round on those odds, wouldn’t like to be that punter. Oh, and crap cartoon as usual, does anyone except GO think they’re funny?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,305
    Dr ydoethur,

    "(incidentally of course August is traditionally both the wettest month and the one with the greatest amount of sunshine.)"

    I've had solar panels for the last decade, and it gives a good measure of the sunshine.in the NW of England. Although June should be the sunniest month, May often is, and April isn't far behind. August is usually disappointing. Obviously daylight length is more important than temperature.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,434

    For someone who was apparently so intelligent and erudite as well as having a comprehensive knowledge of Parliamentary procedure and history, he really, really didn't understand his fellow countrymen very well at all. Of course there was the usual 10% -15% who would be irreconcilable but generally as soon as Brits got to know their new co-workers and neighbours they struck up friendships and relationships that swamped any of the ideological rubbish he was spouting.

    You only have to have watched the recent documentary about skinheads (and if you haven't then do as it was brilliant) to see how the average youth in the late 60s really couldn't give a toss about what colour their mate's skin was.

    I disagree. A lot of people agreed with Powell. He was dangerous because he was able to articulate those ideas with his intelligence and erudition and make them respectable. His absolutism meant he was a political failure. He wanted to be viceroy of India but when that prize was taken away he went all out for little England. He couldn't deal with compromise.

    People can be paradoxical. They are good friends with their immigrant neighbours but still think the country is overrun by them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,480
    Scott_P said:
    Well the Editor must find them funny, but.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,592
    I see a couple of local by-elections in Chipping Snodbury and Little Snoring West are being overanalysed and extrapolated to the nth degree this morning, as though they are the tea leaves that hold the secrets to revealing the next 10 years of politics in the UK.

    Several regular posters who are seeing what they want to see should know better.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,665
    FF43 said:

    For someone who was apparently so intelligent and erudite as well as having a comprehensive knowledge of Parliamentary procedure and history, he really, really didn't understand his fellow countrymen very well at all. Of course there was the usual 10% -15% who would be irreconcilable but generally as soon as Brits got to know their new co-workers and neighbours they struck up friendships and relationships that swamped any of the ideological rubbish he was spouting.

    You only have to have watched the recent documentary about skinheads (and if you haven't then do as it was brilliant) to see how the average youth in the late 60s really couldn't give a toss about what colour their mate's skin was.

    I disagree. A lot of people agreed with Powell. He was dangerous because he was able to articulate those ideas with his intelligence and erudition and make them respectable. His absolutism meant he was a political failure. He wanted to be viceroy of India but when that prize was taken away he went all out for little England. He couldn't deal with compromise.

    People can be paradoxical. They are good friends with their immigrant neighbours but still think the country is overrun by them.
    He urged people to vote Labour and became an Ulster Unionist MP.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483
    Another less than optimal result for the Parole Board: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-43704929

    The system by which violent criminals are being released is really not fit for purpose.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,500
    edited April 13



    Well the Editor must find them funny, but.....

    It's the range of varied subjects that keeps the Standard cartoon fresh.

    May, Boris, May, Boris, May, Boris, May, Boris...

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,440
    FF43 said:

    For someone who was apparently so intelligent and erudite as well as having a comprehensive knowledge of Parliamentary procedure and history, he really, really didn't understand his fellow countrymen very well at all. Of course there was the usual 10% -15% who would be irreconcilable but generally as soon as Brits got to know their new co-workers and neighbours they struck up friendships and relationships that swamped any of the ideological rubbish he was spouting.

    You only have to have watched the recent documentary about skinheads (and if you haven't then do as it was brilliant) to see how the average youth in the late 60s really couldn't give a toss about what colour their mate's skin was.

    I disagree. A lot of people agreed with Powell. He was dangerous because he was able to articulate those ideas with his intelligence and erudition and make them respectable. His absolutism meant he was a political failure. He wanted to be viceroy of India but when that prize was taken away he went all out for little England. He couldn't deal with compromise.

    People can be paradoxical. They are good friends with their immigrant neighbours but still think the country is overrun by them.
    But my point is that that is a long way from the 'rivers of blood' that he was predicting. And history has proved him wrong.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,754
    WRT local by-elections, the Conservatives so far this year have won 35, Labour 16, Lib Dems 13, Others 9.

    That's a net loss of four for the Conservatives, a net gain of seven for the Lib Dems, a net loss of three for Others, and Labour unchanged.

    The majority are seats last contested in 2015, and 2017, both very good years for the Conservatives, with a few from 2016, when Conservatives and Labour were level. None are from 2014, due to the six month rule.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,811
    ydoethur said:

    And the cricket season is off to its traditional mid-April start:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/43725198

    Proving yet again that the ECB couldn't run a party in a brewery.

    Would the ECB say #YES WEE CAN ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,547
    edited April 13
    Osamoron with more words of wisdom...Prince Charles shouldn't be next head of the commonwealth because he doesn't speak up enough...

    Ms Osamor told The House magazine: 'I don't particularly think it should be him. Not because I have an issue with the royal family. I just don't think it should be him.

    'I don't really know what he's been up to of late. He's not been that vocal on issues.

    'But we just need someone who's level-headed, someone people respect but also someone who thinks outside the box.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,811
    Sean_F said:

    WRT local by-elections, the Conservatives so far this year have won 35, Labour 16, Lib Dems 13, Others 9.

    That's a net loss of four for the Conservatives, a net gain of seven for the Lib Dems, a net loss of three for Others, and Labour unchanged.

    The majority are seats last contested in 2015, and 2017, both very good years for the Conservatives, with a few from 2016, when Conservatives and Labour were level. None are from 2014, due to the six month rule.

    Thanks to Sean F for the data.

    It is at times like this that we particularly miss Mark Senior and his analysis.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,298

    Arsenal v Atletico Madrid in Europa league semi final

    POAWWAS
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483

    Osamoron with more words of wisdom...Prince Charles shouldn't be next head of the commonwealth because he doesn't speak up enough...

    Ms Osamor told The House magazine: 'I don't particularly think it should be him. Not because I have an issue with the royal family. I just don't think it should be him.

    'I don't really know what he's been up to of late. He's not been that vocal on issues.

    'But we just need someone who's level-headed, someone people respect but also someone who thinks outside the box.

    Not quite up to yesterday's standards but daft enough. I am trying to imagine the box that is big enough to contain all of Charles' somewhat erratic and eccentric thoughts and why anyone would want to be outside it.
  • Arsenal v Atletico Madrid in Europa league semi final

    POAWWAS
    I think Harry Kane's going to claim he scored the winner in that tie.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 358

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    This is Wales Conservative Policy since October 2017

    (Long before Corbyn came up with his hair brained conditional policy)

    Welsh Conservatives have pledged to give free bus travel to all 16-24 year olds in Wales, and have urged Labour ministers to do the same.

    The Green Card - which the Tories said could cost up to £25m a year - would also give a third off rail tickets.

    Education spokesman Darren Millar said young people suffered high car insurance and the lowest wages.

    The Welsh Government dismissed the plan as "fantasy economics", saying it would consult on a new discount travel pass.

    Mr Millar said the Welsh Conservatives' "exciting offer for young people" would also protect the environment and help save local bus routes from the axe. His colleague Russell George, the Tories' economy spokesman, added that travel costs could be a "huge barrier" to education, training and job opportunities.

    A Welsh Government spokesman said: "These Tory proposals have been made up on the back of a fag packet.

    "To think you can provide 350,000 people with free bus travel and a third off rail fares for £25m is fantasy

    That's £71.42 a head per annum or £1.37 a week. That seems...optimistic.
    How many of the olde rof thoe young people already have cars though? Or live in areas with a near non-existent bus service? I dunno, but I suspect much of the bus travel useage will be focused on a few big towns and cities, where the most profitable routes could still survive with a somewhat reduced revenue.

    And who knows, promoted by images of Corbyn sat on the floor of a bus, they could become a "cool" means of transport....
    The Scottish Government's free bus pass for over 1.3 million 60s, a good number of which are still in employment or active, costs approx £140-150 per person per year. It pays the bus operators 56.9% of the adult single fare for the trip.

    On a pro-rata basis it looks like the cost might be double the figure suggested, but still not much for a measure likely to be very popular.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,483

    Arsenal v Atletico Madrid in Europa league semi final

    POAWWAS
    I think Harry Kane's going to claim he scored the winner in that tie.
    Are you still Salahvating over the golden boot? He looks pretty nailed on now. Pity the Russians are going to poison him.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,521
    There you go Jezza

    Russian foreign minister has claimed the suspected chemical attack in Douma last weekend was fabricated with the help of an unnamed foreign state actor.

    Speaking to reporters in Moscow, he said that 'intelligence agencies of a state that is now striving to spearhead a Russo-phobic campaign were involved in that fabrication'.

    He confirmed Russian experts had been to the city of Douma and found no proof that chemical weapons had been used.

This discussion has been closed.