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  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,688

    Pulpstar said:

    Paddy Power opened up their When will the Tories have a lead with YouGov market

    It was 4/1 earlier, now it's 5/2 for Q1

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1159292

    Got on for a tenner at 4-1
    I had a bit on last summer, at 4/1, when some wise fellow tipped H1 of 2014 for a Tory lead with YouGov

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/29/betting-on-when-will-a-conservative-lead-with-yougov-occur/
    Ah, August 2013, when PB Hodges were scattering polling crossover predictions like confetti.
    I wonder what's upset you tonight ;-)
    I turned on my laptop and was anticipating "MAJOR MOVE ON YOUGOV TONIGHT" headline. It would have topped a very black night. I am in bloody Kent surrounded by non-scouse kopites. Busteds!
    lol - you lucky,I was watching city in a cold rainy Bradford ;-)

    Lucky - I had to sit next to an array of accents who wouldn't know their way to Anfield if you stapled it to their head and shoved a pre-set sat nav up their Harris. One asked the other before the match "We are playing in red tonight?"....and he had a bloody scarf on.
    lol,poor sod ;-)

  • Gary Mac's free kick

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-bc0wWMNT0
  • Pulpstar said:

    Small arb on between Coral and Betfair for Mr Davidson to win CBB btw ;)

    My 33% return on Dappy is still in play.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
    A powerful poll from YouGov in @TheSunNewspaper tomorrow that proves folk may like a policy, but it only does more damage to its owner.

    Have we got tonight's YouGov?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 3,881
    Twitter
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 16m
    A powerful poll from YouGov in @TheSunNewspaper tomorrow that proves folk may like a policy, but it only does more damage to its owner.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    Appallingly cheap shot at little Danny by Paxo given the lib dem's current debacles.

    "You don't care who you get into bed with?"

    LOL
  • Hugh said:

    I love Merseyside derbies.

    My greatest memory was Gary McAllister's, 44 yard, better than sex, injury time winner at Goodison in the Cup Treble season.

    You live in bloody Sheffield you Tory moonbat, what the heck are you doing supporting that horrible shower when you have two Great teams in your own fine City?
    My father is a Liverpool fan, growing up in the 80s, there was only one team I was ever going to support.
  • Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
    A powerful poll from YouGov in @TheSunNewspaper tomorrow that proves folk may like a policy, but it only does more damage to its owner.

    Have we got tonight's YouGov?

    It's 37/34

    I have no idea what the tweet above refers to - I suspect it's a poll about 50p specifically
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    Moderated - Mike's prohibited the use of the word twit
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,530
    FPT @Sean_F
    UKIP is the new broom
    The problem with new brooms is that, used vigorous, they create a lot of dust but don't do much to clear up the mess
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 32,785
    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Sun/YouGov poll tonight - Eds Mili and Balls sink to new low on who to trust on the economy, 24% v Cam and Osbo on 39%; 15 point lead.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,317
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 16m
    A powerful poll from YouGov in @TheSunNewspaper tomorrow that proves folk may like a policy, but it only does more damage to its owner.

    Spot on - I called it yesterday - 50p tax IS popular in isolation but it will damage Lab as people will think Lab = high tax and they'll be worried about OTHER tax rises.

    It's so obvious I'm amazed everyone didn't see it coming!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
    A powerful poll from YouGov in @TheSunNewspaper tomorrow that proves folk may like a policy, but it only does more damage to its owner.

    Have we got tonight's YouGov?

    Downthread, Easterross.

    Labour achieved a 50% increase in their lead in one day.

    The boys are celebrating in Kentish pubs.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Mick_Pork said:

    Moderated - Mike's prohibited the use of the word twit


    ROFL

    It was twitts as in twitter.
  • @TSE

    I only ask because Mike has seen the 2010LD numbers (or so his tweet implies)

    I think Mike's assuming that the YouGov tonight tables tonight will be largely the same as last night's tables, which also fits the ComRes as well
    We'll wait and see - the two polls last night had all sorts of weird internals - hopefully this one is more standard so we can drawn stronger conclusions
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 3,881
    Twitter
    Iain Martin ‏@iainmartin1 2m
    Those clips of Balls on news bulletins tonight looked terrible for Labour. Only rescued a bit by some Tory MPs being daft enough to cheer.

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 2m
    Danny Alexander tells @BBCNewsnight: "No evidence that they [Labour] would have done anything other than a catastrophic job on the economy"
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 3,881
    Agreed, spot on, I responded to that post last night.
    MikeL said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 16m
    A powerful poll from YouGov in @TheSunNewspaper tomorrow that proves folk may like a policy, but it only does more damage to its owner.

    Spot on - I called it yesterday - 50p tax IS popular in isolation but it will damage Lab as people will think Lab = high tax and they'll be worried about OTHER tax rises.

    It's so obvious I'm amazed everyone didn't see it coming!
  • Oh my

    UKIP candidate accepted £100,000 of Euro cash to help his business

    UKIP candidate John Bickley, standing in the Wythenshawe and Sale East, by-election, took nearly £100,000 from an EU-backed fund.

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/ukip-candidate-john-bickley-standing-6640205

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 35,050
    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,337

    Hugh said:

    I love Merseyside derbies.

    My greatest memory was Gary McAllister's, 44 yard, better than sex, injury time winner at Goodison in the Cup Treble season.

    You live in bloody Sheffield you Tory moonbat, what the heck are you doing supporting that horrible shower when you have two Great teams in your own fine City?
    My father is a Liverpool fan, growing up in the 80s, there was only one team I was ever going to support.
    Man United in the 90s to really p**s him off?
  • Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Sun/YouGov poll tonight - Eds Mili and Balls sink to new low on who to trust on the economy, 24% v Cam and Osbo on 39%; 15 point lead.

    I'm not sure that metric matters so much - presumably the 39% are the 34% Tory pledges plus 5% from other sources. I am more concerned about the effect 50p may have on VI - I think @MikeL may be on to something.

  • Lennon said:

    Hugh said:

    I love Merseyside derbies.

    My greatest memory was Gary McAllister's, 44 yard, better than sex, injury time winner at Goodison in the Cup Treble season.

    You live in bloody Sheffield you Tory moonbat, what the heck are you doing supporting that horrible shower when you have two Great teams in your own fine City?
    My father is a Liverpool fan, growing up in the 80s, there was only one team I was ever going to support.
    Man United in the 90s to really p**s him off?
    God no!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 32,785


    I'm not sure that metric matters so much

    Ed Balls isn't too happy about it

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,220
    LOL! I assume tonight's YouGov will cause more whining and moaning about their weightings and methodology?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,952
    He certainly demonstrates that govt subsidies for regional development are often a waste of money.

    Oh my

    UKIP candidate accepted £100,000 of Euro cash to help his business

    UKIP candidate John Bickley, standing in the Wythenshawe and Sale East, by-election, took nearly £100,000 from an EU-backed fund.

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/ukip-candidate-john-bickley-standing-6640205

  • Hugh said:

    MikeL said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 16m
    A powerful poll from YouGov in @TheSunNewspaper tomorrow that proves folk may like a policy, but it only does more damage to its owner.

    Spot on - I called it yesterday - 50p tax IS popular in isolation but it will damage Lab as people will think Lab = high tax and they'll be worried about OTHER tax rises.

    It's so obvious I'm amazed everyone didn't see it coming!
    Good grief. I never cease to be amazed how readily people lap up their own party's spin. You do realise the Sun/Tories etc are fighting a pretty frantic rearguard action on the 50p rate, yes?
    The VI polling so far hasn't looked great on this @Hugh
  • HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!

    It's unlikely Danny will be a part of it!!

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Mrs Lass,

    Has Jasper turned up?
  • The Tories had an 8% lead on the economy last week

    Changes since last week

    Con +7

    Lab no change

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/11n73ifhmv/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-200114.pdf
  • HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!

    What a weird parliament that would be. Labour the biggest party but in opposition. The Libs in government on 9% of the vote.

    A sort of FPTP dystopia!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    Interesting from the 'Gold Standard'.
    Andy Carling ‏@quarsan 7h

    no EU >RT @MSmithsonPB: January @IpsosMORI Issues Index out & immigration now jt 1st with economy See pic.twitter.com/Xf9EJviTWy
    So precisely how is it a surprise that tory backbenchers are running around like headless chickens over immigration while the kipper vote continues it's upward swing for May at the expense of the tories and now labour?
  • Scott_P said:


    I'm not sure that metric matters so much

    Ed Balls isn't too happy about it

    Obviously he'd rather it were higher, but for a psephological point of view, you see my point
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,636

    HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!

    What a weird parliament that would be. Labour the biggest party but in opposition. The Libs in government on 9% of the vote.

    A sort of FPTP dystopia!
    Danny Alexander may not be in the parliament though, given the scottish disaster facing the Lib Dems...
  • Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!

    What a weird parliament that would be. Labour the biggest party but in opposition. The Libs in government on 9% of the vote.

    A sort of FPTP dystopia!
    Danny Alexander may not be in the parliament though, given the scottish disaster facing the Lib Dems...
    Peter from Putney persuaded me to back Danny Alexander as next Lib Dem leader at 25/1
  • MikeL said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 16m
    A powerful poll from YouGov in @TheSunNewspaper tomorrow that proves folk may like a policy, but it only does more damage to its owner.

    Spot on - I called it yesterday - 50p tax IS popular in isolation but it will damage Lab as people will think Lab = high tax and they'll be worried about OTHER tax rises.

    It's so obvious I'm amazed everyone didn't see it coming!

    But Labour is within its normal YG range. All the parties are, in fact.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Thanks folks for confirming the numbers from tonight's YouGov. Not sure what T N-D was referring to in his tweet unless it is internals.

    Is Ed Balls comfort eating? His face looks as though it has ballooned. Yvette needs to put him on a low-Tory diet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,636

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!

    What a weird parliament that would be. Labour the biggest party but in opposition. The Libs in government on 9% of the vote.

    A sort of FPTP dystopia!
    Danny Alexander may not be in the parliament though, given the scottish disaster facing the Lib Dems...
    Peter from Putney persuaded me to back Danny Alexander as next Lib Dem leader at 25/1

    Oh my

    UKIP candidate accepted £100,000 of Euro cash to help his business

    UKIP candidate John Bickley, standing in the Wythenshawe and Sale East, by-election, took nearly £100,000 from an EU-backed fund.

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/ukip-candidate-john-bickley-standing-6640205

    I don't think Wythenshawe is kipper territory !
  • Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!

    What a weird parliament that would be. Labour the biggest party but in opposition. The Libs in government on 9% of the vote.

    A sort of FPTP dystopia!
    Danny Alexander may not be in the parliament though, given the scottish disaster facing the Lib Dems...
    Peter from Putney persuaded me to back Danny Alexander as next Lib Dem leader at 25/1

    Was that before or after he sold you the magic beans?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,636

    Thanks folks for confirming the numbers from tonight's YouGov. Not sure what T N-D was referring to in his tweet unless it is internals.

    Is Ed Balls comfort eating? His face looks as though it has ballooned. Yvette needs to put him on a low-Tory diet.

    He should start back up the running again...
  • Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!

    What a weird parliament that would be. Labour the biggest party but in opposition. The Libs in government on 9% of the vote.

    A sort of FPTP dystopia!
    Danny Alexander may not be in the parliament though, given the scottish disaster facing the Lib Dems...
    Peter from Putney persuaded me to back Danny Alexander as next Lib Dem leader at 25/1

    Was that before or after he sold you the magic beans?

    Actually, looking at betfair, he's trading at 10/1 - I can lay for a profit.

    So Huzzah to Peter from Putney
  • Pulpstar said:

    Thanks folks for confirming the numbers from tonight's YouGov. Not sure what T N-D was referring to in his tweet unless it is internals.

    Is Ed Balls comfort eating? His face looks as though it has ballooned. Yvette needs to put him on a low-Tory diet.

    He should start back up the running again...

    Weights and five minutes flat out on the rowing machine five times a week. And no more lasagne.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,636

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!

    What a weird parliament that would be. Labour the biggest party but in opposition. The Libs in government on 9% of the vote.

    A sort of FPTP dystopia!
    Danny Alexander may not be in the parliament though, given the scottish disaster facing the Lib Dems...
    Peter from Putney persuaded me to back Danny Alexander as next Lib Dem leader at 25/1

    Was that before or after he sold you the magic beans?

    Actually, looking at betfair, he's trading at 10/1 - I can lay for a profit.

    So Huzzah to Peter from Putney
    Is he ?

    £2 wanting to back at 17.5, £12 at 19 and another £2 at 20.0



  • Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    MikeL said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 16m
    A powerful poll from YouGov in @TheSunNewspaper tomorrow that proves folk may like a policy, but it only does more damage to its owner.

    Spot on - I called it yesterday - 50p tax IS popular in isolation but it will damage Lab as people will think Lab = high tax and they'll be worried about OTHER tax rises.

    It's so obvious I'm amazed everyone didn't see it coming!
    Good grief. I never cease to be amazed how readily people lap up their own party's spin. You do realise the Sun/Tories etc are fighting a pretty frantic rearguard action on the 50p rate, yes?
    The VI polling so far hasn't looked great on this @Hugh
    The VI hasn't really moved anywhere yet, no-one expected it to, did they? It might do in the next few days / weeks, as is usually the case with policy-driven poll changes, but I doubt it.

    I suppose there is a danger that people will think "holy cow, they're going to tax us 50%". It's up to Labour to point out, best they can given the media environment, that they're merely "reversing the Tory tax cut for millionaires", and it won't affect ordinary people.
    I picked someone on here up on this the other day - there appears to be a lot of people saying 50p is the Higher Rate. The Higher Rate is the 40p rate. The 45/50p is called the Additional Rate. As you say, Labour needs to hammer home its message, make it clearer.

    On a more positive note for Labour, strategically this hoo-ha about 50p has given it cover for pegging to Tory spending plans, which was announced at the same time. That was a necessary measure - a responsible opposition cannot put forward a Day 1 manifesto to increase the total size of government spending. But that hard news for public servants was drowned out by 50p, so job done in that regard.

    FWIW, I don't actually support the 50p move, as it will probably raise very little. But nor do I see it as the disaster some are painting it as. I suspect it would change very little.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!

    What a weird parliament that would be. Labour the biggest party but in opposition. The Libs in government on 9% of the vote.

    A sort of FPTP dystopia!
    Danny Alexander may not be in the parliament though, given the scottish disaster facing the Lib Dems...
    Peter from Putney persuaded me to back Danny Alexander as next Lib Dem leader at 25/1

    Was that before or after he sold you the magic beans?

    Actually, looking at betfair, he's trading at 10/1 - I can lay for a profit.

    So Huzzah to Peter from Putney
    Is he ?

    £2 wanting to back at 17.5, £12 at 19 and another £2 at 20.0



    I saw he was 54/5 on oddcheckers at Betfair.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014

    MikeL said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 16m
    A powerful poll from YouGov in @TheSunNewspaper tomorrow that proves folk may like a policy, but it only does more damage to its owner.

    Spot on - I called it yesterday - 50p tax IS popular in isolation but it will damage Lab as people will think Lab = high tax and they'll be worried about OTHER tax rises.

    It's so obvious I'm amazed everyone didn't see it coming!

    But Labour is within its normal YG range. All the parties are, in fact.

    Oh dear god, it's nothing to DO with 50p and everything to do with the kippers and their totally expected rise for the coming EU elections.

    Even the Cameroon spinners on loan from CCHQ were trying to play down the the kipper vote at the May EU elections by saying it won't be a surprise if they do very well. So how exactly are they going to do well without a rise in their VI just like they had before last May's local elections?

    The amount of denial of the blatantly obvious going on here is most amusing indeed.
    Like I already pointed out, we're back to the glory days of the PB Romneys.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,636
    Maybe Yvette is fattening him up for christmas, when she gets the ScoTE job xD !
  • Lay Ukip in Sale.

    That story looks bad for them.
  • Would you all like a thread on the six nations?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Lay Ukip in Sale.

    That story looks bad for them.

    Well we know that Farage claiming £3 million in expenses from the EU killed the kippers stone dead so that sounds like money well spent.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,636

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!

    What a weird parliament that would be. Labour the biggest party but in opposition. The Libs in government on 9% of the vote.

    A sort of FPTP dystopia!
    Danny Alexander may not be in the parliament though, given the scottish disaster facing the Lib Dems...
    Peter from Putney persuaded me to back Danny Alexander as next Lib Dem leader at 25/1

    Was that before or after he sold you the magic beans?

    Actually, looking at betfair, he's trading at 10/1 - I can lay for a profit.

    So Huzzah to Peter from Putney
    Is he ?

    £2 wanting to back at 17.5, £12 at 19 and another £2 at 20.0



    I saw he was 54/5 on oddcheckers at Betfair.
    Oddschecker just gives the price people are prepared to lay at ! For a long term, reasonably illiquid market such as this with alot of slections Betfair liquidity is often crap. Your best bet I'd say is to stick your stake up at 14.5, that was the last price matched.



  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 58,556
    edited January 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!

    What a weird parliament that would be. Labour the biggest party but in opposition. The Libs in government on 9% of the vote.

    A sort of FPTP dystopia!
    Danny Alexander may not be in the parliament though, given the scottish disaster facing the Lib Dems...
    Peter from Putney persuaded me to back Danny Alexander as next Lib Dem leader at 25/1

    Was that before or after he sold you the magic beans?

    Actually, looking at betfair, he's trading at 10/1 - I can lay for a profit.

    So Huzzah to Peter from Putney
    Is he ?

    £2 wanting to back at 17.5, £12 at 19 and another £2 at 20.0



    I saw he was 54/5 on oddcheckers at Betfair.
    Oddschecker just gives the price people are prepared to lay at ! For a long term, reasonably illiquid market such as this with alot of slections Betfair liquidity is often crap. Your best bet I'd say is to stick your stake up at 14.5, that was the last price matched.



    I know, I suspect my Chris Huhne as next Lib Dem leader betting slip has more chance of a profit than my Danny Alexander slip
  • 4.78" of rain in Warwick so far this January. Can we hit the magic 5"? Sadly, it doesn't look like we'll get any snow this winter. It'll be the first whiteless one for a while.
  • Would you all like a thread on the six nations?

    Yes please

  • Would you all like a thread on the six nations?

    Yes please

    I'll try and get one done for Friday night

    My rugby tips are great.

    I did back Wales last year.

    And who can forget my Ireland to beat Australia tip in the 2011 World Cup?

    Neil certainly can.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    Good news for NeoCons everywhere. The man of peace, the Sainted Tony has spoken out.
    Ian Birrell ‏@ianbirrell

    Tony Blair, who did so much to exacerbate sectarian tensions in the Mid East, pontificates again on curbing extremism http://gu.com/p/3m75p/tw

    Malcolm Fraser ‏@MalcolmFraser12 3h

    US to sell attack helicopters to Iraq. To attack Al Qaeda or Sunnis, probably both http://www.theage.com.au/world/-hva7d.html

    Borzou Daragahi ‏@borzou 2h

    #Iraq plans to start importing natural gas from #Iran despite sanctions; no other way to provide electricity, v @FT http://on.ft.com/1eek0Xj
    YALiberty ‏@YALiberty 2h

    More than $13b in Iraq aid has been classified as wasted or stolen. Another $7.8b is unaccounted for. http://buff.ly/19YYSoq | via @Heritage
  • Mick_Pork said:


    2) Balls with his toxic ratings, was the last person Lab should have used to announce the 50p rate plan, Ed M would have been a better choice.

    Balls is truly shite.
    He is indeed but so is the toxic Osbrowne. So ironically both remain quite safe as long as the other is in place.

    A few months ago someone here was suggesting that whichever of EdM or Cameron replaced Balls or Osborne would win in 2015.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,842
    edited January 2014


    2) Balls with his toxic ratings, was the last person Lab should have used to announce the 50p rate plan, Ed M would have been a better choice.

    Balls is truly shite.

    Hasn't he announced that 50% will now only be temporary ?

    I can do a better job than Balls in my spare time.

    And I did a better job than Osborne when he was Shadow Chancellor.

    Its pi55 easy - all you have to do is look up the Chancellor's budget forecasts and then contrast them with the ONS stats.

    Why are establishment politicians so bloody crap ?


    Did you stop the election in 2007 like George did?
    If you're referring to Osborne's IHT pledge then actually I might well have done as I proposed the same thing a week earlier at ConHome.

    Although what actually stopped an election in 2007 was Brown losing his bottle at the Labour conference.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 35,050
    The Last Post Indeed, after all their talk of electoral reform FPTP may prove to be the LD saviour, AV would have seen them wiped out in most places, however I can see Tories voting Alexander to keep out the SNP and Labour!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530


    2) Balls with his toxic ratings, was the last person Lab should have used to announce the 50p rate plan, Ed M would have been a better choice.

    Balls is truly shite.

    Hasn't he announced that 50% will now only be temporary ?

    I can do a better job than Balls in my spare time.

    And I did a better job than Osborne when he was Shadow Chancellor.

    Its pi55 easy - all you have to do is look up the Chancellor's budget forecasts and then contrast them with the ONS stats.

    Why are establishment politicians so bloody crap ?


    Did you stop the election in 2007 like George did?
    If you're referring to Osborne's IHT pledge then actually I might well have done as I proposed the same thing a week earlier at ConHome.

    Although what actually stopped an election in 2007 was Brown losing his bottle at the Labour conference.

    But would you have pledged to match Labour spending like Osbrowne did?

    Something the amusing Osbrowne fanboys do rather keep trying to forget.

  • 2) Balls with his toxic ratings, was the last person Lab should have used to announce the 50p rate plan, Ed M would have been a better choice.

    Balls is truly shite.

    Hasn't he announced that 50% will now only be temporary ?

    I can do a better job than Balls in my spare time.

    And I did a better job than Osborne when he was Shadow Chancellor.

    Its pi55 easy - all you have to do is look up the Chancellor's budget forecasts and then contrast them with the ONS stats.

    Why are establishment politicians so bloody crap ?


    Did you stop the election in 2007 like George did?
    If you're referring to Osborne's IHT pledge then actually I might well have done as I proposed the same thing a week earlier at ConHome.

    Although what actually stopped an election in 2007 was Brown losing his bottle at the Labour conference.

    To me that's one of the two great what ifs of British politics in the last 20 years.

    What would have been the result if Brown had called an election?

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 3,881
    edited January 2014
    HurstLlama, yes, finally he appeared meowing like mad and very very hungry. He stank of wood, so we suspect curiosity got the better of him and he got shut in someone's wood shed. He did this once before when he was quite young, disappeared for four days, and then reappeared filthy and stinking of coal. He is currently eating us out of house and home, and he hasn't so much as stuck his nose out the door since he got back. The old boy really did give us a scare there, just relieved he is back healthy and safe.

    I doubt Labour lead is really down to 2-3%...I would still think it is ~5-6%...

    But it does seem that all that banging on about 50p tax hasn't seen the sort of temporary jump you normally see from a populist policy getting a good airing. Make of that what you will.

    Agreed. Labour will be very disappointed that it hasn't given them a poll bounce.
    There's two ways to look at this

    1) It takes a while (up to a fortnight) for changes to filter to VI

    2) Balls with his toxic ratings, was the last person Lab should have used to announce the 50p rate plan, Ed M would have been a better choice.

    3. Voters had already factored it in.

    Labour at the bottom of its YG range two days in a row. Tories towards the top of theirs. It was like this in early autumn too if I remember correctly.

    Yes, people have factored in Labour are a tax raising party.

    Mrs Lass,

    Has Jasper turned up?

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    HYUFD said:

    The Last Post Indeed, after all their talk of electoral reform FPTP may prove to be the LD saviour, AV would have seen them wiped out in most places, however I can see Tories voting Alexander to keep out the SNP and Labour!

    The lib dems are finishing behind the kippers in scotland these days, so I'm afraid the idea that little Danny will be saved by the massed hordes of grateful scottish tories is just a bit far fetched.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,636
    Mick_Pork said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Last Post Indeed, after all their talk of electoral reform FPTP may prove to be the LD saviour, AV would have seen them wiped out in most places, however I can see Tories voting Alexander to keep out the SNP and Labour!

    The lib dems are finishing behind the kippers in scotland these days, so I'm afraid the idea that little Danny will be saved by the massed hordes of grateful scottish tories is just a bit far fetched.
    Hugh said:

    Mick_Pork said:


    2) Balls with his toxic ratings, was the last person Lab should have used to announce the 50p rate plan, Ed M would have been a better choice.

    Balls is truly shite.
    He is indeed but so is the toxic Osbrowne. So ironically both remain quite safe as long as the other is in place.

    A few months ago someone here was suggesting that whichever of EdM or Cameron replaced Balls or Osborne would win in 2015.
    That's bollox though.

    Though Osborne is toxic, and Balls either unknown or unpopular depending on who you ask, replacing either would be an admission of economic failure that would swamp any benefit the party gets from a more popular figure.

    Even the personalities of PMs and potential PMs probably don't change that many votes, Chancellors and Shadow Chancellors certainly don't.
    Labour can WIN though if they ditch Balls now. They won't so its Minority Gov't at the best for them...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,636
    Mick_Pork said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Last Post Indeed, after all their talk of electoral reform FPTP may prove to be the LD saviour, AV would have seen them wiped out in most places, however I can see Tories voting Alexander to keep out the SNP and Labour!

    The lib dems are finishing behind the kippers in scotland these days, so I'm afraid the idea that little Danny will be saved by the massed hordes of grateful scottish tories is just a bit far fetched.
    Watching the Lib Dems get smashed to smithereens in Scotland is going to be part of the entertainment come GE2015. They may recover down sarf but it ain't happening in Scotland.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,496
    Hmm, I think that we need to accept that the 50p row hasn't gone down well with non-Labour voters, for whatever reason - I've never seen much evidence for the "takes a while to filter through" theory and I think the Tory vote is iindeed up a bit. That said, polling in the 37-39 range continues for Labour, as it has for most of the past year, and there's no indication that that's changing: it remains very unlikely that the Tories can win unless it does.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    And who can forget my Ireland to beat Australia tip in the 2011 World Cup?

    That wasnt a tip - it was an attempt at sabotage!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    Hugh said:

    Mick_Pork said:


    2) Balls with his toxic ratings, was the last person Lab should have used to announce the 50p rate plan, Ed M would have been a better choice.

    Balls is truly shite.
    He is indeed but so is the toxic Osbrowne. So ironically both remain quite safe as long as the other is in place.

    A few months ago someone here was suggesting that whichever of EdM or Cameron replaced Balls or Osborne would win in 2015.
    That's bollox though.

    Though Osborne is toxic, and Balls either unknown or unpopular depending on who you ask, replacing either would be an admission of economic failure that would swamp any benefit the party gets from a more popular figure.

    Even the personalities of PMs and potential PMs probably don't change that many votes, Chancellors and Shadow Chancellors certainly don't.
    Of course they do. Trust is what drives any and all policy pledges and promises for the voter.
    Unless the public at least somewhat trusts those making those pledges then they are f****d.

    Trust is at the heart of both the tory and labour election campaign strategies. Who do you trust to take care of the economy and who do you trust to tackle the cost of living crisis.

    The problem for the tory and labour spinners is that when they make it as explicit as do you trust politician A or B they inevitably find that the public don't trust either very much at all.

    The lib dems can say what they like to be honest as they are becoming increasingly irrelevant while having Clegg make pledges will just cause the voter to laugh very hard indeed. Tuition fees made certain of that.

  • Neil said:


    And who can forget my Ireland to beat Australia tip in the 2011 World Cup?

    That wasnt a tip - it was an attempt at sabotage!
    I'm still amazed you can remember the events of the night before the match, or the match.

    All I remember is the torrent of abuse.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Pulpstar said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Last Post Indeed, after all their talk of electoral reform FPTP may prove to be the LD saviour, AV would have seen them wiped out in most places, however I can see Tories voting Alexander to keep out the SNP and Labour!

    The lib dems are finishing behind the kippers in scotland these days, so I'm afraid the idea that little Danny will be saved by the massed hordes of grateful scottish tories is just a bit far fetched.
    Hugh said:

    Mick_Pork said:


    2) Balls with his toxic ratings, was the last person Lab should have used to announce the 50p rate plan, Ed M would have been a better choice.

    Balls is truly shite.
    He is indeed but so is the toxic Osbrowne. So ironically both remain quite safe as long as the other is in place.

    A few months ago someone here was suggesting that whichever of EdM or Cameron replaced Balls or Osborne would win in 2015.
    That's bollox though.

    Though Osborne is toxic, and Balls either unknown or unpopular depending on who you ask, replacing either would be an admission of economic failure that would swamp any benefit the party gets from a more popular figure.

    Even the personalities of PMs and potential PMs probably don't change that many votes, Chancellors and Shadow Chancellors certainly don't.
    Labour can WIN though if they ditch Balls now. They won't so its Minority Gov't at the best for them...
    You're making the mistake of thinking that just because the main westminster parties are held in very low esteem somehow means that a hung parliament is more inevitable. It's not. It's simply a numbers game. It doesn't matter how popular or unpopular the parties are as long as they get sufficient votes to get past the narrow band in FPTP where one would occur. That band narrows even further the less lib dem MPs there are and they are even less popular than the tories and labour.

    The kipper rise does indeed mean that there are less votes to go around but FPTP ensures that only makes certain seats more winnable for other parties since the kippers won't be making any sweeping gains of MPs. One or two maybe, but that would be about it.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 35,050
    edited January 2014
    Mick Pork - Danny got 40% in 2010 in Inverness and the Tories 18%, that is a total of 58% in his seat, more than offsetting the 10% - 15% the LDs have lost in national polls since 2010.

    NP Judging from his comments tonight Alexander favours another coalition with the Tories, if the Tories grab a lead, even if they fail to win a majority, that will likely be the result, indeed even if Labour gets more seats but fails to win the popular vote

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Hugh said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Hugh said:

    Mick_Pork said:


    2) Balls with his toxic ratings, was the last person Lab should have used to announce the 50p rate plan, Ed M would have been a better choice.

    Balls is truly shite.
    He is indeed but so is the toxic Osbrowne. So ironically both remain quite safe as long as the other is in place.

    A few months ago someone here was suggesting that whichever of EdM or Cameron replaced Balls or Osborne would win in 2015.
    That's bollox though.

    Though Osborne is toxic, and Balls either unknown or unpopular depending on who you ask, replacing either would be an admission of economic failure that would swamp any benefit the party gets from a more popular figure.

    Even the personalities of PMs and potential PMs probably don't change that many votes, Chancellors and Shadow Chancellors certainly don't.
    Of course they do. Trust is what drives any and all policy pledges and promises for the voter.
    Unless the public at least somewhat trusts those making those pledges then they are f****d.

    Trust is at the heart of both the tory and labour election campaign strategies. Who do you trust to take care of the economy and who do you trust to tackle the cost of living crisis.

    The problem for the tory and labour spinners is that when they make it as explicit as do you trust politician A or B they inevitably find that the public don't trust either very much at all.

    The lib dems can say what they like to be honest as they are becoming increasingly irrelevant while having Clegg make pledges will just cause the voter to laugh very hard indeed. Tuition fees made certain of that.

    I don't know. It's easy for an SNP supporter to say that personalities matter so much, as you are blessed with by far the two best politicians on the scene at the moment in Salmond and Sturgeon.

    It's also easy because the labour party and the Blairites made every effort imaginable to make Blair a cult of personality before it all went horribly wrong. So too did the tories with their detoxification strategy pre 2010 and Cammie going Green and hugging huskies.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TSE

    It's a wide open 6 nations this year. It might even be worth backing Ireland at current prices, hoping they do the business early on and then laying off for a profit before the inevitable defeat in Paris.

  • 2) Balls with his toxic ratings, was the last person Lab should have used to announce the 50p rate plan, Ed M would have been a better choice.

    Balls is truly shite.

    Hasn't he announced that 50% will now only be temporary ?

    I can do a better job than Balls in my spare time.

    And I did a better job than Osborne when he was Shadow Chancellor.

    Its pi55 easy - all you have to do is look up the Chancellor's budget forecasts and then contrast them with the ONS stats.

    Why are establishment politicians so bloody crap ?


    Did you stop the election in 2007 like George did?
    If you're referring to Osborne's IHT pledge then actually I might well have done as I proposed the same thing a week earlier at ConHome.

    Although what actually stopped an election in 2007 was Brown losing his bottle at the Labour conference.

    To me that's one of the two great what ifs of British politics in the last 20 years.

    What would have been the result if Brown had called an election?

    There wasn't any substance to Labour's lead at that time so my guess would be a minority Labour government or at most a tiny majority.

    Brown secretely realised this and because his ego couldn't bear to do worse than Blair had done he bottled calling an election at the Labour conference. But as a cowardly ditherer he didn't have the courage to announce there wouldn't be an election instead he let things drift for a week until he looked ridiculous.

    And after a bit of fiddly research caused by the ConHome site changing my comment of 28/09/07 in its glory:

    "It would be more popular not to abolish it [inheritance tax] but to increase the threshold to say a million pounds. Any money saved by this adjustment could be used to increase the stamp duty of houses threshold, which would aslo be popular."

    Its the first comment after this article:

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/09/tories-will-ple.html#comments

    Its probably just as well that I think Brown had already lost his bottle before Osborne made his IHT proposal otherwise I'd be thinking it was my comment which altered the timeline of history.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Mick_Pork said:

    Appallingly cheap shot at little Danny by Paxo given the lib dem's current debacles.

    "You don't care who you get into bed with?"

    LOL

    Coming from BBC Newsnight downright disgraceful.

    The BBC really think they're untouchable, don't they?
  • Neil said:

    @TSE

    It's a wide open 6 nations this year. It might even be worth backing Ireland at current prices, hoping they do the business early on and then laying off for a profit before the inevitable defeat in Paris.

    That's what I was thinking.

    I'm struggling to see anyone doing a Grand Slam.

  • 2) Balls with his toxic ratings, was the last person Lab should have used to announce the 50p rate plan, Ed M would have been a better choice.

    Balls is truly shite.

    Hasn't he announced that 50% will now only be temporary ?

    I can do a better job than Balls in my spare time.

    And I did a better job than Osborne when he was Shadow Chancellor.

    Its pi55 easy - all you have to do is look up the Chancellor's budget forecasts and then contrast them with the ONS stats.

    Why are establishment politicians so bloody crap ?


    Did you stop the election in 2007 like George did?
    If you're referring to Osborne's IHT pledge then actually I might well have done as I proposed the same thing a week earlier at ConHome.

    Although what actually stopped an election in 2007 was Brown losing his bottle at the Labour conference.

    To me that's one of the two great what ifs of British politics in the last 20 years.

    What would have been the result if Brown had called an election?

    There wasn't any substance to Labour's lead at that time so my guess would be a minority Labour government or at most a tiny majority.

    Brown secretely realised this and because his ego couldn't bear to do worse than Blair had done he bottled calling an election at the Labour conference. But as a cowardly ditherer he didn't have the courage to announce there wouldn't be an election instead he let things drift for a week until he looked ridiculous.

    And after a bit of fiddly research caused by the ConHome site changing my comment of 28/09/07 in its glory:

    "It would be more popular not to abolish it [inheritance tax] but to increase the threshold to say a million pounds. Any money saved by this adjustment could be used to increase the stamp duty of houses threshold, which would aslo be popular."

    Its the first comment after this article:

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/09/tories-will-ple.html#comments

    Its probably just as well that I think Brown had already lost his bottle before Osborne made his IHT proposal otherwise I'd be thinking it was my comment which altered the timeline of history.
    You are a wise fellow.

    But it would be remiss of us, to talk about that period, without referencing the seminal political article from that period.

    We cannot be killed

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Mick Pork - Danny got 40% in 2010 in Inverness and the Tories 18%, that is a total of 58% in his seat, more than offsetting the 10% - 15% the LDs have lost in national polls since 2010.

    NP Judging from his comments tonight Alexander favours another coalition with the Tories, if the Tories grab a lead, even if they fail to win a majority, that will likely be the result, indeed even if Labour gets more seats but fails to win the popular vote

    What little Danny got in 2010 is very much a thing of the past.
    New poll suggests Lib Dems face Scottish mainland wipeout

    According to the latest Ashcroft poll of marginal seats the Lib Dems are facing a total wipeout of MPs in mainland Scotland, with even Charlie Kennedy’s seat falling to the SNP.

    1247 voters in the 11 Lib Dem Scottish Westminster seats were polled last month, both as to their general party support, and who they would vote for in their own constituency.

    The result revealed that Lib-Dem support has collapsed and the Tories have fallen further back.

    While Labour saw a modest increase, the SNP was the major beneficiary. Current voting intention (with the 2010 figures in those seats in brackets) was SNP 31% (+16%) : Lab 26% (+6%) : LD 20% (-21%) : Con 16% (-5%): Other 7% (+4%).

    Although that vote change won’t be universal across every seat, the figures suggest that only Orkney and Shetland would remain in Lib Dem hands. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk would fall to the Tories, while Labour would pick up East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West.

    If the results were to be repeated in the 2015 general election then such a scenario would see Sir Menzies Campbell, Danny Alexander and current Scottish Secretary Michael Moore all lose their seats.

    http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-politics/6902-new-poll-suggests-lib-dems-face-scottish-mainland-wipeout
    That an older Ashcroft poll from last year but I see no evidence at all since then that the lib dems are gaining popularity in scotland. Quite the reverse.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 3,881
    That is a really good long term bet. I reckon that Danny Alexander would certainly be in with a shout as next Leader in a very trimmed down Libdem party if Clegg goes, especially if we are looking at another Hung Parliament. He has definitely become one of the most high profile and impressive Libdem performers in this Government, and I don't doubt that he would have the backing of Clegg.

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny Alexander on Newsnight sticks with 45p top rate and opposes 50p and says 'no evidence Ed Balls and Labour would have been anything than a catastrophe on the economy.' If there is another hung parliament in 2015 and the Tories are ahead on the popular vote, even if they are behind Labour in seats, I think a continuation of the Tory-LD Coalition would be inevitable!

    What a weird parliament that would be. Labour the biggest party but in opposition. The Libs in government on 9% of the vote.

    A sort of FPTP dystopia!
    Danny Alexander may not be in the parliament though, given the scottish disaster facing the Lib Dems...
    Peter from Putney persuaded me to back Danny Alexander as next Lib Dem leader at 25/1
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Its probably just as well that I think Brown had already lost his bottle before Osborne made his IHT proposal otherwise I'd be thinking it was my comment which altered the timeline of history.

    But then we wouldn't have had all the 'tory majority nailed on' from the PB tories on here before 2010 and where's the fun in that?

    *chortle*
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    fitalass said:

    That is a really good long term bet. I reckon that Danny Alexander would certainly be in with a shout as next Leader in a very trimmed down Libdem party if Clegg goes

    A keeper.

    Pure comedy gold. :D

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,426
    Mick Pork - as much as it saddens me to say this the Lib Dems are still polling around 8-9% in Scotland which is rather better than Ukip. Whether that is enough to save wee Danny I don't know. In some ways perhaps he's been over-criticised. I'm sure he's entirely sincere about what he's doing and he wasn't behind the SDP campaign of 2010 that was shortly ditched for a deal with Dave. It's Clegg who needs to take responsibility for that and why of course heis, in terms of public opinion, holed below the water line.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014

    Mick Pork - as much as it saddens me to say this the Lib Dems are still polling around 8-9% in Scotland which is rather better than Ukip. Whether that is enough to save wee Danny I don't know. In some ways perhaps he's been over-criticised. I'm sure he's entirely sincere about what he's doing and he wasn't behind the SDP campaign of 2010 that was shortly ditched for a deal with Dave. It's Clegg who needs to take responsibility for that and why of course heis, in terms of public opinion, holed below the water line.

    Not for the EU elections they're not. But yes, they haven't quite entered the death spiral for westminster VI though they are circling the drain. It won't take much to push them in and Clegg as leader and the very public face of the lib dem election campaign in 2015 may well do it. Always remember, the lib dems may have flatlined at around 10% in westmisnter VI since late 2010, but ever since then they have been taking severe damage to their activist and councillor base year on year on year. The spin for the Cleggites is that they have chosen to focus on the most winnable seats pragmatically. They truth is they have no choice as they have lost the ability to mount anything other than a very denuded and shrunk down operation.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,264
    edited January 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Mick Pork - Danny got 40% in 2010 in Inverness and the Tories 18%, that is a total of 58% in his seat, more than offsetting the 10% - 15% the LDs have lost in national polls since 2010.

    NP Judging from his comments tonight Alexander favours another coalition with the Tories, if the Tories grab a lead, even if they fail to win a majority, that will likely be the result, indeed even if Labour gets more seats but fails to win the popular vote

    What do you think they'll do about the EU? Hard to see them supporting Cameron's idea of a referendum giving the voters two different options to change the status quo, both of which they probably disagree with. (Hard to say for sure, as nobody knows what Cameron's "renegotiate" option actually means.) Do we reckon Cameron can get away with wriggling out of it as the price for keeping the Tories in government?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 35,050
    MP But that poll is generic, in any case Labour is second with the SNP a close third so his opposition is split while he will get Tory tactical votes (and Inverness was a Tory target in 1997 so there are significant numbers of Tories there)

    Personally, as a moderately Tory voter I could happily vote for an Alexander led LDs and if the social democrats split off with Cable and Farron forming their own party or joining Labour a real Liberal Party would be my natural preference!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 35,050
    Anyone staying up for the State of the Union tonight? Don't think I will bother, though may watch Obama's entrance and opening remarks
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,591
    Brilliant!
    Mick_Pork said:

    Appallingly cheap shot at little Danny by Paxo given the lib dem's current debacles.

    "You don't care who you get into bed with?"

    LOL

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    HYUFD said:

    MP But that poll is generic,


    Sorry? It's a poll of 11 Lib Dem Scottish Westminster seats from last year which quite clearly carries far more weight than what little Danny got in 2010 before the lib dems completely tanked in popularity. Nor is the suggestion that all tories suddenly split off to support him anything other than a laughable fantasy. You might get a very small percentage but the scottish tories certainly aren't about to enter any 'pacts' to save little Danny's skin and in any seat where they have a sizeable vote they'll want to take advantage of the the lib dems death spiral in scotland. The scottish tories aren't about to let little Danny have a free ride just because he was nice to Cammie and Osbrowne. No chance of that whatever they say publicly to keep him sweet.
  • HYUFD said:

    Anyone staying up for the State of the Union tonight? Don't think I will bother, though may watch Obama's entrance and opening remarks

    "Good evening fellow Americans. Texas is threatening to secede again, but apart from that the union's fine. Thank you for your time."
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @HYUFD

    Cant summon up the enthusiasm to watch it. I wonder where Kirsten is these days, maybe she'll come back for the next round of debates. Not so long now. Go Martin O'Malley! ;)
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 3,881
    Neil, you can follow Kristen on twitter these days, she is very focused on events unfolding in Syria these days.
    Neil said:

    @HYUFD

    Cant summon up the enthusiasm to watch it. I wonder where Kirsten is these days, maybe she'll come back for the next round of debates. Not so long now. Go Martin O'Malley! ;)

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 35,050
    EdInTokyo I expect if the Tories have most votes the LDs will accept a referendum, but on the basis Cameron campaigns to stay in even many of his backbenchers don't
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 3,881
    Which constituency do you live in?
    Mick_Pork said:

    HYUFD said:

    MP But that poll is generic,


    Sorry? It's a poll of 11 Lib Dem Scottish Westminster seats from last year which quite clearly carries far more weight than what little Danny got in 2010 before the lib dems completely tanked in popularity. Nor is the suggestion that all tories suddenly split off to support him anything other than a laughable fantasy. You might get a very small percentage but the scottish tories certainly aren't about to enter any 'pacts' to save little Danny's skin and in any seat where they have a sizeable vote they'll want to take advantage of the the lib dems death spiral in scotland. The scottish tories aren't about to let little Danny have a free ride just because he was nice to Cammie and Osbrowne. No chance of that whatever they say publicly to keep him sweet.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,003
    HYUFD said:

    Anyone staying up for the State of the Union tonight? Don't think I will bother, though may watch Obama's entrance and opening remarks

    Advance trails say it's immigration, income inequality, and he'll try to raise the minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 by executive order for workers on government contracts.

    No idea how accurate that info is.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    fitalass said:

    Which constituency do you live in?

    Mick_Pork said:

    HYUFD said:

    MP But that poll is generic,


    Sorry? It's a poll of 11 Lib Dem Scottish Westminster seats from last year which quite clearly carries far more weight than what little Danny got in 2010 before the lib dems completely tanked in popularity. Nor is the suggestion that all tories suddenly split off to support him anything other than a laughable fantasy. You might get a very small percentage but the scottish tories certainly aren't about to enter any 'pacts' to save little Danny's skin and in any seat where they have a sizeable vote they'll want to take advantage of the the lib dems death spiral in scotland. The scottish tories aren't about to let little Danny have a free ride just because he was nice to Cammie and Osbrowne. No chance of that whatever they say publicly to keep him sweet.
    Are you trying to take over from where SeanT left off?

    I'd advise against it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 35,050
    MP ie not his own seat, you also ignore the fact neither Labour nor the SNP is clearly the main challenger so under FPTP he is helped by a split opposition. Cameron and Osborne will clearly prefer Alexander to either another MP for Miliband or Salmond and CCHQ will effectively run a paper candidate!
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Hugh

    'Ditching the toxic Osborne or unpopular/unknown Balls would probably be the worst thing the party leaders can do, given that narrative that would follow. '

    You really believe that Balls is unpopular/unknown but not toxic?

    Balls,McBride,Brown,Draper ring any bells or are they unknown too?,

    Pure comedy gold from the PBKinnocks.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    HYUFD said:

    MP ie not his own seat, you also ignore the fact neither Labour nor the SNP is clearly the main challenger so under FPTP he is helped by a split opposition. Cameron and Osborne will clearly prefer Alexander to either another MP for Miliband or Salmond and CCHQ will effectively run a paper candidate!

    LOL

    This is delightful stuff. Machiavellian plots and eccentric conspiracies all to avoid the rather obvious fact that whatever he polled in 2010 little Danny isn't going to get close and the scottish tories are no more likely to all vote for lib dem than they are for labour or green.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 35,050
    EdmundinTokyo/Neil Indeed, though I would imagine most Dems would gladly campaign for a Texas secession which would benefit them much as losing Scotland would benefit the Tories, indeed even more so for the Dems!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 3,881
    edited January 2014
    What are you on about, and why the threat? Most folk on here are quite open about the constituencies they live in? But fair enough, if you prefer to just mock others local knowledge of constituency seats from the back seat in the dark, I can only assume that you don't live anywhere near this seat or that of Charles Kennedy and your just a robotic rebuttal service to be ignored.
    Mick_Pork said:

    fitalass said:

    Which constituency do you live in?

    Mick_Pork said:

    HYUFD said:

    MP But that poll is generic,


    Sorry? It's a poll of 11 Lib Dem Scottish Westminster seats from last year which quite clearly carries far more weight than what little Danny got in 2010 before the lib dems completely tanked in popularity. Nor is the suggestion that all tories suddenly split off to support him anything other than a laughable fantasy. You might get a very small percentage but the scottish tories certainly aren't about to enter any 'pacts' to save little Danny's skin and in any seat where they have a sizeable vote they'll want to take advantage of the the lib dems death spiral in scotland. The scottish tories aren't about to let little Danny have a free ride just because he was nice to Cammie and Osbrowne. No chance of that whatever they say publicly to keep him sweet.
    Are you trying to take over from where SeanT left off?

    I'd advise against it.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @HYUFD

    Texas is trending Democrat - 2024 here we come! Last time I was in New York I saw a great one woman show about Ann Richards, a remarkable woman. I think it's probably a bit too early for Wendy Davis to follow in her shoes but it should be a colourful race.
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