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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The politics of Wind farms: Even CON voters are more in fav

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,657
    Freggles said:
    That is the point of the articles - the data does not allow us to come up with a figure. But neither does that mean that there were no or just a few excess deaths, as has been claimed on here in the past.

    If you read the report (as I have) and the publicly-available witness statements etc, you would be a fool to assume that there were not many excess deaths.

    And there is great danger in saying: "because we cannot be sure of the figures, no-one died. And if no-one died everything is fine and we need not mention this blemish on the NHS and Labour's name."

    Personally I want it shouted from the rooftops. The quality of care (or lack thereof) and hideous, inhumane and degrading treatment of patients by staff should not be swept under the carpet. And it will be if the 'no deaths' crowd have their way.
  • Oh dear not more posturing:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10031011/David-Cameron-may-support-EU-referendum-laws-before-2015.html

    The problem is Cameron has said a) he has taken withdrawal off the negotiating table when renegotiating the UK's position b) that he will campaign to stay in whatever agreement he negotiates c) any changes will be minimal if he is to meet Cameron's timetable d) Brussels has made it very clear they are in no mood to negotiate.

    Every concession has had to be dragged out of Cameron and every concession has come as a result of a further slump in Tory fortunes. There is no guarantee that should Tory fortunes improve Cameron won't renege on any proposals. It really doesn't matter if he writes any legislation in his own blood he no longer has any credibility with many Eurosceptics.

    And that was before he confirmed his abuse of anyone on the right of centre who votes UKIP. I doubt there is anything that is going to convince the vast majority of those who have deserted him to return to the fold.. .

    I suspect Cameron knows this and this is just another ploy to keep his backbenches sufficiently onside to avoid a move against him before 2015.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Oh dear not more posturing:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10031011/David-Cameron-may-support-EU-referendum-laws-before-2015.html

    The problem is Cameron has said a) he has taken withdrawal off the negotiating table when renegotiating the UK's position b) that he will campaign to stay in whatever agreement he negotiates c) any changes will be minimal if he is to meet Cameron's timetable d) Brussels has made it very clear they are in no mood to negotiate.

    Every concession has had to be dragged out of Cameron and every concession has come as a result of a further slump in Tory fortunes. There is no guarantee that should Tory fortunes improve Cameron won't renege on any proposals. It really doesn't matter if he writes any legislation in his own blood he no longer has any credibility with many Eurosceptics.

    And that was before he confirmed his abuse of anyone on the right of centre who votes UKIP. I doubt there is anything that is going to convince the vast majority of those who have deserted him to return to the fold.. .

    I suspect Cameron knows this and this is just another ploy to keep his backbenches sufficiently onside to avoid a move against him before 2015.

    Mr Cameron will concede pretty much anything to keep his job. The backbench MPs should keep pushing.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,514

    Freggles said:
    That is the point of the articles - the data does not allow us to come up with a figure. But neither does that mean that there were no or just a few excess deaths, as has been claimed on here in the past.

    If you read the report (as I have) and the publicly-available witness statements etc, you would be a fool to assume that there were not many excess deaths.

    And there is great danger in saying: "because we cannot be sure of the figures, no-one died. And if no-one died everything is fine and we need not mention this blemish on the NHS and Labour's name."

    Personally I want it shouted from the rooftops. The quality of care (or lack thereof) and hideous, inhumane and degrading treatment of patients by staff should not be swept under the carpet. And it will be if the 'no deaths' crowd have their way.
    Straw.


    Man.

    Argument.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 18,345
    HYUFD, I would not be surprised if Marine Le Pen emerged as the main right wing politician in France.

    Re UKIP I was rather moved by a comment on Anthony Wells' site that we're rather lucky that our protest parties are people like SNP, Greens and UKIP, rather than Nazis or Communists.
  • @anotherdave

    Indeed of course he's in the convenient position of knowing whatever he proposes the Libdems and Labour will block it. As I said 'not more posturing'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,596
    SeanF- I don't think so, unless the centre-right squabbles turned into a civil war, 25% of the vote is about the FN ceiling at its absolute peak!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    @anotherdave

    Indeed of course he's in the convenient position of knowing whatever he proposes the Libdems and Labour will block it. As I said 'not more posturing'.

    There are enough votes for a referendum bill to pass the HoC. No idea about the HoL.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15425256
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,657
    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:
    That is the point of the articles - the data does not allow us to come up with a figure. But neither does that mean that there were no or just a few excess deaths, as has been claimed on here in the past.

    If you read the report (as I have) and the publicly-available witness statements etc, you would be a fool to assume that there were not many excess deaths.

    And there is great danger in saying: "because we cannot be sure of the figures, no-one died. And if no-one died everything is fine and we need not mention this blemish on the NHS and Labour's name."

    Personally I want it shouted from the rooftops. The quality of care (or lack thereof) and hideous, inhumane and degrading treatment of patients by staff should not be swept under the carpet. And it will be if the 'no deaths' crowd have their way.
    Straw.

    Man.

    Argument.
    Okay, if that's what you think.

    But ask yourself if you would want a friend or relative treated in the way some people were in Stafford. (*) If you would not, why? Is it because better outcomes occur, everything else being equal, where the staff care and do not leave patients covered in dried excrement?

    (*) I have no doubt that there were, and are, some great doctors, nurses and administrators at Stafford. It is a shame that their careers will be tarnished by association.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013

    @ Avery

    I suspect the thread's getting too long for it's own good so I shall start afresh.

    I've heard your arguments before of course, but as ever they are not to be looked at in isolation. Import substituion if managed correctly is a stimulus to the economy. Your offer at the moment is to say it's better to have someone sat on the dole than doing a job you consider "low productivity". I think that's a nonsense not having people in work is the lowest form of productivity I can think of. And at the moment with 2+ million unemployed that's what you're offering. Why you'd rather tax businesses more than you have to or see people stuck in the mire I can't fathom.

    The crux of the issue comes back to why is the UK losing it's manufacturing competitiveness ? We lost about 1 million jobs under Labour most of them needlessly since the hubris of City fever and new economy meant people lost track of what mattered and they gave up on businesses they should have kept. While you tell me about Soviet engineers being wasted, I feel we have pretty much the same problem here only we send ours to be lawyers and accountannts; we have 13 times more accountants than Germany and we're a smaller economy.

    Since you love your stats I suggest you maybe start to look at them constructively and question why do we buy abroad. large chunks of what we import are mid tech products from medium to high cost countries. There's not a wage issue the issues are more ones of capital allowances, energy costs, infrastructure, R&D accessability, supply chains, education and training. You appear to recognise some of this but there is not much substantive GO has done. I would give HMG credit for NI reform, lowering tax rates and tightening up on no win no fee, not much else comes to mind. Additionally you have missed out that in some cases we've let whole sectors go just to suit a multinational who doesn't pay tax in this country. It's great for the MN but crap for the country. As an example five years ago we had 3 van manufacturers in this country Ford, LDV and Vauxhall. Next year we'll only have one, ( Ford's gone to Turkey, LDV to China ) yet we'll still need vans so how are we going to pay for the imports ? In the Mrs T days someone in the DTI would have got off their ass and tried to attract a producer today we don't really bother. Partly it's because those widgets you laugh at aren't seen as sexy. But in complex products, they're the backbone of the supply chain and essential. increasingly these days what they sell isn't a casting or a plastic moulding it's a JIT, quality assured product backed up by an engineering team. While that may not be to everyone's taste it's probably more skilled than what most people in an office do.

    So overall MrP I remain to be convinced that HMG has joined up the dots. yes export is important I've done enough of it in my time and it's not without its glamour and also its problems. But personally I think we can fill our financial holes quicker by looking at home than the long trek overseas, Since you're a stats freak perhaps you can explain why nearly all UK supermarket own brand jam is made in Belgium ? It can't be labour cost or climate. Likewise I don't think its cost I always buy home produced where I can and I can get a pretty good product in Waitrose or M&S for the same price sometimes cheaper. If you can answer that I might apply to you for a grant to open a jam factory - assuming there are any lending banks.

    You want jam today and British too, Mr Brooke! Not so much a problem here as the household is full of home made jams, marmalades, chutneys and even - I am eating some on toast now - freshly made lemon curd! And very good it is too..

    But jam making is a good case study. I guess it needs access to volume fruit growers, where weather reliability, low picking (labour) costs and speed of tree to factory are critical. The other main ingredients are commodities: sugar and energy.

    As to the product there is very little which can be done to differentiate it from competition. A recipe for raspberry jam is going to be much the same all over the world/ There will be grades of quality mainly related to proportion of fruit but these are easily replicated.

    So differentiation would traditionally rely on brand development (advertising) and packaging, generally a losing game for manufacturing when up against supermarket brands. [I am told that when home made stocks run low then Aldi sell the best supermarket jams].

    So low cost manufacture is likely to depend on volume production, which in turn will depend on capital investment in plant and machinery. This suggests that production will become increasingly concentrated in a very few factories. So I am not surprised that Belgium has become a virtual monopoly supplier to the industry. Its location will also help with pan-European distribution costs and speed.

    You would need to put forward a very convincing business plan to get funds to set up a UK factory capable of entering the market and taking a profitable share from the established Belgian operations.

    I guess the best option would be to set up in Turkey. Good weather, low labour costs, large quantity of agricultural land suitable for fruit growing avaiable, major sugar beet grower.

    In the UK you would have to go niche, with spend slanted to marketing added value: new jar shapes; clever labelling and packaging; Roger to film commercials with sexy girls; maybe making souvenir jars for tourist and leisure and entertainment industries; possibly with a hook to organic farming and fair trade (sugar) etc. Also look at low sugar varieties targetted at the healh food channels.

    Very difficult to see how you get finance to set up a volume manufacturing plant targetted at supermarket sales.

    Let's open this up to other PBers.

    How can we crack the fruit preserves market with a UK manufacturing base?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 18,345
    Aren't we seeing the centre-right moving into civil war? And 25% looks like a tipping point.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,052
    @JosiasJessop

    Last Friday, happened to see this ex-LMS "class 5" locomotive at Ilford Depot undergoing maintenance - not sure when steam engines last graced what is today almost exclusively electric loco and multiple unit territory!

    http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Loco_45305_at_Ilford_Depot_on_low-loader_2013.JPG
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416
    AveryLP said:

    @ Avery

    I suspect the thread's getting too long for it's own good so I shall start afresh.

    I've heard your arguments before of course, but as ever they are not to be looked at in isolation. Import substituion if managed correctly is a stimulus to the economy. Your offer at the moment is to say it's better to have someone sat on the dole than doing a job you consider "low productivity". I think that's a nonsense not having people in work is the lowest form of productivity I can think of. And at the moment with 2+ million unemployed that's what you're offering. Why you'd rather tax businesses more than you have to or see people stuck in the mire I can't fathom.

    The crux of the issue comes back to why is the UK losing it's manufacturing competitiveness ? We lost about 1 million jobs under Labour most of them needlessly since the hubris of City fever and new economy meant people lost track of what mattered and they gave up on businesses they should have kept. While you tell me about Soviet engineers being wasted, I feel we have pretty much the same problem here only we send ours to be lawyers and accountannts; we have 13 times more accountants than Germany and we're a smaller economy.

    Since you love your stats I suggest you maybe start to look at them constructively and question why do we buy abroad. large chunks of what we import are mid tech products from medium to high cost countries. There's not a wage issue the issues are more ones of capital allowances, energy costs, infrastructure, R&D accessability, supply chains, education and training. You appear to recognise some of this but there is not much substantive GO has done. I would give HMG credit for NI reform, lowering tax rates and tightening up on no win no fee, not much else comes to mind. Additionally you have missed out that in some cases we've let whole sectors go just to suit a multinational who doesn't pay tax in this country. It's great for the MN but crap for the country. As an example five years ago we had 3 van manufacturers in this country Ford, LDV and Vauxhall. Next year we'll only have one, ( Ford's gone to Turkey, LDV to China ) yet we'll still need vans so how are we going to pay for the imports ? In the Mrs T days someone in the DTI would have got off their ass and tried to attract a producer today we don't really bother. Partly it's because those widgets you laugh at aren't seen as sexy. But in complex products, they're the backbone of the supply chain and essential. increasingly these days what they sell isn't a casting or a plastic moulding it's a JIT, quality assured product backed up by an engineering team. While that may not be to everyone's taste it's probably more skilled than what most people in an office do.

    So overall MrP I remain to be convinced that HMG has joined up the dots. yes export is important I've done enough of it in my time and it's not without its glamour and also its problems. But personally I think we can fill our financial holes quicker by looking at home than the long trek overseas, Since you're a stats freak perhaps you can explain why nearly all UK supermarket own brand jam is made in Belgium ? It can't be labour cost or climate. Likewise I don't think its cost I always buy home produced where I can and I can get a pretty good product in Waitrose or M&S for the same price sometimes cheaper. If you can answer that I might apply to you for a grant to open a jam factory - assuming there are any lending banks.

    You want jam today and British too, Mr Brooke! Not so much a problem here as the household is full of home made jams, marmalades, chutneys and even - I am eating some on toast now - freshly made lemon curd! And very good it is too..

    But jam making is a good case study. I guess it needs access to volume fruit growers, where weather reliability, low picking (labour) costs and speed of tree to factory are critical. The other main ingredients are commodities: sugar and energy.

    As to the product there is very little which can be done to differentiate it from competition. A recipe for raspberry jam is going to be much the same all over the world/ There will be grades of quality mainly related to proportion of fruit but these are easily replicated.

    So differentiation would traditionally rely on brand development (advertising) and packaging, generally a losing game for manufacturing when up against supermarket brands. [I am told that when home made stocks run low then Aldi sell the best supermarket jams].

    So low cost manufacture is likely to depend on volume production, which in turn will depend on capital investment in plant and machinery. This suggests that production will become increasingly concentrated in a very few factories. So I am not surprised that Belgium has become a virtual monopoly supplier to the industry. Its location will also help with pan-European distribution costs and speed.

    You would need to put forward a very convincing business plan to get funds to set up a UK factory capable of entering the market and taking a profitable share from the established Belgian operations.

    I guess the best option would be to set up in Turkey. Good weather, low labour costs, large quantity of agricultural land suitable for fruit growing avaiable, major sugar beet grower.

    In the UK you would have to go niche, with spend slanted to marketing added value: new jar shapes; clever labelling and packaging; Roger to film commercials with sexy girls; maybe making souvenir jars for tourist and leisure and entertainment industries; possibly with a hook to organic farming and fair trade (sugar) etc. Also look at low sugar varieties targetted at the healh food channels.

    Very difficult to see how you get finance to set up a volume manufacturing plant targetted at supermarket sales.

    Let's open this up to other PBers.

    How can we crack the fruit preserves market with a UK manufacturing base?
    How about this for the strapline for a Jam commercial shot by roger:

    "It's red, and far too good for you Sun readers"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,596
    SeanF - True, but as 2002 showed if the FN get into the second round the overwhelming majority of the left will vote against it, even for a conservative like Chirac, and most of the middle-class centre-right vote would also vote for Hollande against Le Pen
  • @anotherDave

    There are enough votes for a referendum bill to pass the HoC. No idea about the HoL.

    Huh? From the Telegraph article I linked:

    The Liberal Democrats and Labour would block any legislation committing the Government to a referendum on Britain's EU membership.

    However, sources confirmed Mr Cameron is looking at whether the Conservatives could still bring forward new laws from the backbenches.

    This would send a strong signal that the Tories are committed to a referendum, in contrast to Labour and the Liberal Democrats, even if the legislation is doomed to failure.


  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    HYUFD said:

    SeanF- I don't think so, unless the centre-right squabbles turned into a civil war, 25% of the vote is about the FN ceiling at its absolute peak!

    Anti EU feeling is spiking across Europe. Perhaps the FN could surf that?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/24/trust-eu-falls-record-low
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,596
    SmithersJones - Cameron knows it has not got a cat in hell's chance of passing, but he also knows it would provide a very tempting morsel for potential Tory defectors to UKIP!
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "SeanF - True, but as 2002 showed if the FN get into the second round the overwhelming majority of the left will vote against it, even for a conservative like Chirac, and most of the middle-class centre-right vote would also vote for Hollande against Le Pen"

    Thank God we don't have the French system. I'd hate to have to vote for Michael Gove as President just because Nick Griffin was his opponent in the run-off.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,188
    edited May 2013
    I have a feeling turnout will be rather respectable tomorrow, better than most people are predicting. We know that a lot of UKIP supporters are people who haven't bothered to vote for a long time. And also the purported surge in support for Farage's party is bound to bring out some extra Labour and LD voters who can't stand UKIP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,596
    JameKelly - Well under the UK system in theory Griffin could become PM if he won a majority of constituencies on only 30% of the vote in each seat!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,596
    AnotherDave - Up to a point, but nowhere near enough to get 51% of French voters to back Le Pen
  • @HYUFD

    Well I'm one of those defectors and it means absolutely nothing to me. Like everything else Cameron has done it has not changed the UK's relationship with the EU one iota.

    There is only one event that would tell me Cameron was doing something truly Eurosceptic. Ken Ckarke throwing his dummy out of his pram and resigning as a Minister with a spittle fuelled rant from the senile old duffer about how Cameron is as xenophobe being optional. Whilst Clarke remains in government its clear that Cameron's euroscepticism is fake.
  • Oops typo Clarke not Ckarke
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Well under the UK system in theory Griffin could become PM if he won a majority of constituencies on only 30% of the vote in each seat!"

    Good point, well made. Obviously a run-off system is superior to FPTP, albeit only slightly. What I really meant was "thank God we don't have a directly elected leader of the executive".
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    R.A.D ‏@DohertyRA 2m
    Ming Campbell: "independence isn't just for christmas." Neither is a puppy, Ming, and puppies are awesome. Vote Puppies!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,052
    West Midlands (former metropolitan county) Westminster seats: Correlation between White British % at Census 2011 and Labour vote % at GE 2010?

    http://t.co/pCLnYtaY4U
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,052
    West Midlands (former metropolitan county) Westminster seats: Correlation between White British % at Census 2011 and Conservative vote % at GE 2010?

    http://t.co/T3RsRfo64i
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    HYUFD said:

    Hollande would now lose to Le Pen in first round of French presidential election

    There's an A-Class sub-editing blunder in that Telegraph article, arguably two:

    The poll put ex-conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy in poll position on 34 per cent assuming he ran again.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    Ming Campbell: "independence isn't just for christmas."

    Whereas a lib dem leader sometimes is, isn't it Ming? ;)

    I see Clegg thinks the worst is over. Good timing for that prediction as usual.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,596
    SmithersJones2013 - Well UKIP of course will continue to campaign, but it is one of the key demands of the defectors to see legislation for a referendum before the election to show Cameron is serious about an EU referendum
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,596
    Ken Clarke also remains one of the most popular Tories in the country at large despite his EU views and is one of the few heavyweights Cameron has, he will not be moved
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,596
    James Kelly - Agree on that, at least Griffin cannot challenge the Queen
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,596
    RichardNavabi - Indeed, Heffer was constantly throwing tantrums over young Telegraph journalists' grammar
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,844



    I think the real explanation might be that you don't want a referendum because you think you'll lose (although it seems a bit extreme to work for Ed Balls as Chancellor to avoid one). As you may remember, I agree. In fact, we have a bet on it.

    I certainly don't think we would lose any referendum which is why I was happy to bet with you.

    What I do know is that I and hundreds of thousands of other people are voting UKIP becasue we are equally certain that Cameron is utterly untrustworthy when it comes to the issue of the EU and that he will not deliver what he has promised if he wins the next election.

    Your blind faith in him keeping his word and denigrating all those people who distrust him is exactly the sort of arrogance that will ensure the Tories do not win back those people who have seen through his false promises.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413


    Your blind faith in him keeping his word and denigrating all those people who distrust him is exactly the sort of arrogance that will ensure the Tories do not win back those people who have seen through his false promises.

    So, rather than accusing me of arrogance, how about running me through the logic. How exactly does helping the two Eds into power help your cause? You seem to be prepared to throw the 2015-2020 opportunity in the bin, apparently out of nothing other than irrational prejudice against David Cameron. OK, so when's the next opportunity? Are we talking 2050 , or is that a bit optimistic?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,188
    edited May 2013
    I can't believe these numbers are correct:

    "Some of Britain's mainline train stations are being used by fewer than 30 people a year, a new study suggests.

    Teesside Airport station, in Darlington, had just 14 passengers between 2011-12.

    Surrey's Dorking West had 16 passengers, while Denton in Greater Manchester had 30."



    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22369250
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013



    I think the real explanation might be that you don't want a referendum because you think you'll lose (although it seems a bit extreme to work for Ed Balls as Chancellor to avoid one). As you may remember, I agree. In fact, we have a bet on it.

    I certainly don't think we would lose any referendum which is why I was happy to bet with you.

    What I do know is that I and hundreds of thousands of other people are voting UKIP becasue we are equally certain that Cameron is utterly untrustworthy when it comes to the issue of the EU and that he will not deliver what he has promised if he wins the next election.

    Your blind faith in him keeping his word and denigrating all those people who distrust him is exactly the sort of arrogance that will ensure the Tories do not win back those people who have seen through his false promises.
    Richard, you are being most uncharacteristically irrational here.

    Cameron does not want to leave the EU. He wants to reform it from within to the point that a new settlement can be agreed between the UK and its EU partners. He believes this is achievable and that such a settlement will be supported by a majority of the electorate. He is sufficiently confident of his belief and strategy that he is prepared to risk a commitment to a future IN/OUT referendum.

    Why mistrust that commitment? You can legitimately disagree with the Cameron's position and vote UKIP for that reason, but to claim that your UKIP support is based on distrust of Cameron and lack of belief in his promise to deliver appears to me to be somewhat disingenuous.

    Are you adopting the "we can't trust Cameron to deliver" line to avoid accepting the logic of RN's argument that a Cameron majority government is almost certainly the only route to you getting to vote in an IN/OUT referendum on the EU?

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,844



    So, rather than accusing me of arrogance, how about running me through the logic. How exactly does helping the two Eds into power help your cause? You seem to be prepared to throw the 2015-2020 opportunity in the bin, apparently out of nothing other than irrational prejudice against David Cameron. OK, so when's the next opportunity? Are we talking 2050 , or is that a bit optimistic?

    It really not that difficult to understand Richard and I know you already know the answer.

    Neither the Tories nor Labour as they currently stand will deliver a referendum if there is any chance the public will vote 'the wrong way'. Any chance of a referendum in the next parliament is already dead as long as the current party leaderships are in place. Anyone with any sense can see this. I (almost entirely) discount any chance of changing Cameron's mind and getting anything meaningful before the next election not only because I think he is ideologically opposed to the UK leaving the EU but also because the numbers don't work for him in Parliament.

    As such the best chance of getting a referendum in he medium term - which realistically means after 2020 is by making sure that the Tory party is fundamentally changed in terms of its leadership and philosophy as far as the EU is concerned. Cameron must fail for the Eurosceptics to win because he is the biggest block to any movement on the issue at the moment.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @AveryLP - Quite so. The most extraordinary thing about the Kippers' position is that they keep going back to the line that Cameron won't be able to get any concessions. They might well be right - no-one ever claimed that undoing the Blair/Brown mess was going to be easy.

    But if he doesn't, then that surely makes it more likely that we'll vote to leave the EU when Cameron comes back and says 'this is the best deal I could get'. I'd certainly vote to leave in the event that he can't get the necessary protections for the City.

    As tim shrewdly pointed out, the UKIPpers position is so utterly irrational that there is ultimately no point arguing with them. They just want to take perverse pleasure in cutting off our noses to spite their faces. Or some such metaphor.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,357
    AndyJS said:

    I have a feeling turnout will be rather respectable tomorrow, better than most people are predicting. We know that a lot of UKIP supporters are people who haven't bothered to vote for a long time. And also the purported surge in support for Farage's party is bound to bring out some extra Labour and LD voters who can't stand UKIP.

    I think it will be better than usual too, though more by the first factor than the second. Most Lab/Lib voters are still just mildly amused by UKIP (rather as though Boris had formed a rival Tory party, splitting the Tory vote while offering various witticisms), not recoiling in horror and rushing down to the polling stations as they would if it was the BNP. We can debate whether they're being foolishly complacent, but I've only met precisely one voter who cited it as a reason to vote.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,188
    edited May 2013
    Interesting fact:

    We still don't have a single constituency where the Conservative, Labour and LD candidates have all been selected for 2015 AFAIK:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0

    The closest is Peterborough where the Con, Lab and UKIP candidates have been chosen.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,844
    edited May 2013
    AveryLP said:



    Why mistrust that commitment? You can legitimately disagree with the Cameron's position and vote UKIP for that reason, but to claim that your UKIP support is based on distrust of Cameron and lack of belief in his promise to deliver appears to me to be somewhat disingenuous.

    Because I don't believe that Cameron is that naive that he would seriously believe any meaningful reform of the EU is possible. At best there would be a few meaningless changes to minor issues that would in no way change the fundamental relationship between the EU and the member states.

    Cameron must know this which is why I accuse him of dishonesty.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    @AveryLP - Quite so. The most extraordinary thing about the Kippers' position is that they keep going back to the line that Cameron won't be able to get any concessions. They might well be right - no-one ever claimed that undoing the Blair/Brown mess was going to be easy.

    But if he doesn't, then that surely makes it more likely that we'll vote to leave the EU when Cameron comes back and says 'this is the best deal I could get'. I'd certainly vote to leave in the event that he can't get the necessary protections for the City.

    As tim shrewdly pointed out, the UKIPpers position is so utterly irrational that there is ultimately no point arguing with them. They just want to take perverse pleasure in cutting off our noses to spite their faces. Or some such metaphor.

    Oh I understand the kippers postion, Richard.

    It is Richard Tyndall's that is difficult to understand, On almost all other topics he is the model of logic and intelligent debate.

  • Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead down to 6 points on eve of local elections - UKIP stay high. LAB 39%, CON 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 10%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,500
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting fact:

    We still don't have a single constituency where the Conservative, Labour and LD candidates have all been selected for 2015 AFAIK:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0

    The closest is Peterborough where the Con, Lab and UKIP candidates have been chosen.

    What was all that noise about the Tories not being prepared for the election because they were selecting on the proposed boundaries? They don't seem to be doing too badly at the moment!
  • @HYUFD

    No its one of the key demands of his unruly Eurosceptic backbenchers (who think it will help them sway voters back towards the conservatives), I'm not sure that UKIP or its supporters are particularly bothered about having legislation in this government about it (particularly as such legislation will never happen).

    This is about trying to increase Cameron's credibility and like everything else he has attempted on the EU it will be shot down. In fact this is a particularly inane stunt as it will result in a headline of 'CAMERON IS DEFEATED' and to the uninformed that will further damage his reputation.
  • On topic, alternate energy, I'm a fan.

    They've opened a wind farm not far from Sheffield.

    I've driven past it on the m1 a few times in the past week.

    Looks very nice
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    @Richard_Tyndall - 2020 is absolutely hopeless. You're talking about a scenario where UKIP split the Right, and perhaps split the Conservative Party. By what conceivable mechanism could that deliver anything other than a Labour government in 2020?

    You'd have to build from scratch, over multiple parliamentary terms - like Labour in the early stages of the twentieth century. But the difference is that what you want is on offer, in a formal commitment, deliverable in the next parliamentary term. Because (for no rational reason) you claim to believe neither David Cameron nor those who (like me) are Conservative Party members and tell you that, even if he wanted to, there is not a snowflake's chance in hell that he could get away with not holding a referendum if he has a majority, you'd launch into a thirty-year programme, with no strategy, on the off-chance that something might happen to make it work.

    Well it won't, and you'd have thrown away the one opportunity which would work.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,052

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead down to 6 points on eve of local elections - UKIP stay high. LAB 39%, CON 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 10%.

    YouGov/The Sunil:

    Government 43%
    Labour 39%
  • The big question for me is what percentage vote share do UKIP need to get to get Dave to change his mind and put withdrawal back on the negotiating table for his negotiations with the EU?

    20%?
    25%?
    30%?

    I suspect if UKIP started polling in the region of 25% then you would get unconfirmed reports that Dave had put withdrawal back on the negotiating table.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:



    Why mistrust that commitment? You can legitimately disagree with the Cameron's position and vote UKIP for that reason, but to claim that your UKIP support is based on distrust of Cameron and lack of belief in his promise to deliver appears to me to be somewhat disingenuous.

    Because I don't believe that Cameron is that naive that he would seriously believe any meaningful reform of the EU is possible. At best there would be a few meaningless changes to minor issues that would in no way change the fundamental relationship between the EU and the member states.

    Cameron must know this which is why I accuse him of dishonesty.
    Richard

    The EU has to change. It lacks democratic legitimacy and acts as a restraint on its members ability to compete and survive in the global economy,

    There is a real probability that its current structure will implode in the short term future, If so the consequent need to establish a new framework will fall into Cameron's lap.

    If it does survive, retrenches into defence of the status quo and resists Cameron and Hague's overtures to negotiate a new settlement for the UK then no British politician will be able to resist demands for the UK to unilaterally exit.

    The realpolitik of this is nothing to do with the personal honesty or credibility of individual leaders.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,188
    edited May 2013
    O/T:

    Map of listed buildings in the UK:

    http://www.britishlistedbuildings.co.uk/map
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    YouGov/Kelly Kronikle

    Ed'n'Nige 49%
    Government 43%
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,844

    @Richard_Tyndall - 2020 is absolutely hopeless. You're talking about a scenario where UKIP split the Right, and perhaps split the Conservative Party. By what conceivable mechanism could that deliver anything other than a Labour government in 2020?

    You'd have to build from scratch, over multiple parliamentary terms - like Labour in the early stages of the twentieth century.
    blockquote >

    Of course you wouldn't. No matter how much you might like to think it is the case, Cameron and his clique are not the Tory party. However they do hold the power at the moment and are happily driving the Tory party to oblivion.

    The opportunity you keep claiming exists is a figment of your imagination. It never has and never will exist as long as Cameron is leading the Tories.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 3,643
    Labour briefing the Guardian that they may lose South Shields tomorrow

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/01/ukip-bloody-nose-labour-byelection
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,052
    AndyJS said:

    I can't believe these numbers are correct:

    "Some of Britain's mainline train stations are being used by fewer than 30 people a year, a new study suggests.

    Teesside Airport station, in Darlington, had just 14 passengers between 2011-12.

    Surrey's Dorking West had 16 passengers, while Denton in Greater Manchester had 30."


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22369250

    I've been through Dorking West (on the Redhill to Reading line), about 18 months ago, seems very quiet. Most people probably travel on the neaby main line through Dorking proper or use Dorking Deepdene.

    I know that Teesside has a very limited service which may explain its low patronage.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,500
    Couple of Qs for tomorrow - I can't see coverage listed on the BBCs schedule, or is it just starting at 00:25?

    Also, over what timeframe can we expect results, or are a significant number of councils counting in the morning?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead down to 6 points on eve of local elections - UKIP stay high. LAB 39%, CON 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 10%.

    Only 6% and UKIP at a mere 13%?

    It's sunlit uplands for the Tories tomorrow!

    Where is IOS?

    Isn't he leaving it a bit late to tweak the algorithm?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,844
    AveryLP said:



    The EU has to change. It lacks democratic legitimacy and acts as a restraint on its members ability to compete and survive in the global economy,

    There is a real probability that its current structure will implode in the short term future, If so the consequent need to establish a new framework will fall into Cameron's lap.

    If it does survive, retrenches into defence of the status quo and resists Cameron and Hague's overtures to negotiate a new settlement for the UK then no British politician will be able to resist demands for the UK to unilaterally exit.

    The realpolitik of this is nothing to do with the personal honesty or credibility of individual leaders.

    It is already changing and it is doing so by becoming even more centralised and less what the British want. And yet Cameron has made it very clear that he will never (his words) consider the UK leaving the EU. He has no negotiating position with the EU because he has already given away and bargaining power he might have had.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,844
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    Map of listed buildings in the UK:

    http://www.britishlistedbuildings.co.uk/map

    Ooo. That's quite cool. My house is on there. :-)
  • @RichardNabavi

    You're talking about a scenario where UKIP split the Right, and perhaps split the Conservative Party.

    In case you haven't noticed David Cameron split the right and seemingly the Conservative Party at grass roots level as well. The question now is who post Cameron will reunite the right and whether it will be under the blue or purple banner?

    As for what UKIP wants? UKIP wants withdrawal from the EU. David Cameron has already indicated he will not contemplate that. Why would anyone who wants withdrawal be motivated to vote for Cameron based on his EU position?

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413


    Of course you wouldn't. No matter how much you might like to think it is the case, Cameron and his clique are not the Tory party. However they do hold the power at the moment and are happily driving the Tory party to oblivion.

    The opportunity you keep claiming exists is a figment of your imagination. It never has and never will exist as long as Cameron is leading the Tories.

    So UKIP would disband and support the Tories if there were a change of leader? Really?

    It is mad. Stark, raving mad. It's not me that is imagining things; there is absolutely no route which gets you to what you claim is your destination - a referendum on leaving the EU - which starts by facilitating a Labour victory in 2015. And yet there's a very clear route if there's a Conservative majority.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013

    Why would anyone who wants withdrawal be motivated to vote for Cameron based on his EU position?

    Err, so they get a referendum which would allow them to vote to leave. That's what you want, right? Cameron's preference (and whether or not he can wring any concessions out of our EU friends) are irrelevant if there's a referendum.
  • RobD said:

    Couple of Qs for tomorrow - I can't see coverage listed on the BBCs schedule, or is it just starting at 00:25?

    Also, over what timeframe can we expect results, or are a significant number of councils counting in the morning?

    According to the Times

    The first counties will start declaring at about 2.30am tomorrow but most of the results, including unitaries, will be announced after midday. Overnight timings are 2.30am Lincolnshire; 4am Dorset, Essex, Hampshire and Somerset; 6am Gloucestershire. Last is Northamptonshire at about 7pm.

    Vote 2013 Begins on BBC2 at 12pm Friday (lunchtime) until 1pm then again 5pm until 6pm
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,188
    In the 2010 election there were 4,152 candidates in total. So far 164 have been selected for 2015 which is 3.95% of the 2010 figure.
  • AveryLP said:

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead down to 6 points on eve of local elections - UKIP stay high. LAB 39%, CON 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 10%.

    Only 6% and UKIP at a mere 13%?

    It's sunlit uplands for the Tories tomorrow!

    Where is IOS?

    Isn't he leaving it a bit late to tweak the algorithm?
    He's out campaigning in Cornwall isn't he?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,844



    So UKIP would disband and support the Tories if there were a change of leader? Really?

    It is mad. Stark, raving mad. It's not me that is imagining things; there is absolutely no route which gets you to what you claim is your destination - a referendum on leaving the EU - which starts by facilitating a Labour victory in 2015. And yet there's a very clear route if there's a Conservative majority.

    I have no idea what UKIP would do. I do know that if there was a properly Eurosceptic leader of the Tory party then I and I suspect many others would consider supporting them again.

    It is not madness. It is simply that you are too blindly wedded to the Tory party under Cameron to realise that much of the rest of the country has no faith in him when it comes to the EU.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    AveryLP said:


    Where is IOS?

    Isn't he leaving it a bit late to tweak the algorithm?

    I'm sure he's busy tweaking those Cornish algorithms - the effect will be devastating.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,500

    RobD said:

    Couple of Qs for tomorrow - I can't see coverage listed on the BBCs schedule, or is it just starting at 00:25?

    Also, over what timeframe can we expect results, or are a significant number of councils counting in the morning?

    According to the Times

    The first counties will start declaring at about 2.30am tomorrow but most of the results, including unitaries, will be announced after midday. Overnight timings are 2.30am Lincolnshire; 4am Dorset, Essex, Hampshire and Somerset; 6am Gloucestershire. Last is Northamptonshire at about 7pm.

    Vote 2013 Begins on BBC2 at 12pm Friday (lunchtime) until 1pm then again 5pm until 6pm
    Bah, counting should have to start at 10pm, no later!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,188
    edited May 2013
    South Shields is counting overnight according to this article, (this is the first link I found, it hasn't been chosen because I like the headline):

    http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-upbeat-3311654
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 18,345
    Andrea, I can't see Labour losing, but UKIP winning 33% or so is feasible
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    @RichardNabavi I am the sort of person you need to attract back. I voted tory last time, I am not enamored by UKIP. However your argument about not voting Tory lets in the 2 ed's frankly does not wash

    1) I do not trust Cameron not to weasel
    2) Even if he holds a referendum frankly I do not want a referendum run by him
    3) The 2 ed's are not that much of a threat, they are social democrats, so is Cameron he may make us bankrupt a few months later is about the only difference

    Frankly I suspect if the following was to happen

    UKIP 324
    Conservative 163
    Labour 162
    LD 0
    Others 0

    I think we would have a conservative/labour coalition before they allowed a ukip minority.
    Labour and tory are like opposite wings of the same party
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Couple of Qs for tomorrow - I can't see coverage listed on the BBCs schedule, or is it just starting at 00:25?

    Also, over what timeframe can we expect results, or are a significant number of councils counting in the morning?

    According to the Times

    The first counties will start declaring at about 2.30am tomorrow but most of the results, including unitaries, will be announced after midday. Overnight timings are 2.30am Lincolnshire; 4am Dorset, Essex, Hampshire and Somerset; 6am Gloucestershire. Last is Northamptonshire at about 7pm.

    Vote 2013 Begins on BBC2 at 12pm Friday (lunchtime) until 1pm then again 5pm until 6pm
    Bah, counting should have to start at 10pm, no later!
    I wish all counts were like Sunderland South.
  • Labour briefing the Guardian that they may lose South Shields tomorrow

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/01/ukip-bloody-nose-labour-byelection

    That would be the mother of all upsets and is frankly unthinkable. Paddy Power's latest odds are Labour 1/50, UKIP 18/1 which suggests that Labour will be fine (perhaps with a small majority if Labour are briefing this in the Guardian)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,500

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Couple of Qs for tomorrow - I can't see coverage listed on the BBCs schedule, or is it just starting at 00:25?

    Also, over what timeframe can we expect results, or are a significant number of councils counting in the morning?

    According to the Times

    The first counties will start declaring at about 2.30am tomorrow but most of the results, including unitaries, will be announced after midday. Overnight timings are 2.30am Lincolnshire; 4am Dorset, Essex, Hampshire and Somerset; 6am Gloucestershire. Last is Northamptonshire at about 7pm.

    Vote 2013 Begins on BBC2 at 12pm Friday (lunchtime) until 1pm then again 5pm until 6pm
    Bah, counting should have to start at 10pm, no later!
    I wish all counts were like Sunderland South.
    Well maybe not quite that fast. Good to make it stretch over a few hours to watch the pundits try and decipher what is going on!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,678

    That would be the mother of all upsets and is frankly unthinkable. Paddy Power's latest odds are Labour 1/50, UKIP 18/1 which suggests that Labour will be fine (perhaps with a small majority if Labour are briefing this in the Guardian)

    Presumably they're just trying to solidify their vote. It would be a sensational result though.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 3,643
    What were they briefing on the eve of Rotherham?
  • Labour briefing the Guardian that they may lose South Shields tomorrow

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/01/ukip-bloody-nose-labour-byelection

    On expectations management that's up there with the Tories losing 800 seats
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Paddy Power's latest odds are Labour 1/50, UKIP 18/1"

    I don't think Labour will lose, but given some of the daft odds we've seen in the past I'm not sure that's much of a guide.
  • @johnloony

    Sometimes the quote button doesn't work on some mobile devices.
  • @RIchardNabavi

    Err, so they get a referendum which would allow them to vote to leave

    Getting a vote to leave is not withdrawal. Given that the Prime Minister of the day will undoubtedly be Europhile and recommend whatever carve up he and the EU agree ( much like the Wilson carve up) chances are that a referendum will not deliver withdrawal and as Libdems know to their cost rashly pushing for a referendum at the wrong time puts back the primary goal decades. Why jump in with both feet if all it will do is tie you into the despised EU for another 50 years?

    Until there is a truly Eurosceptic leadership of one of the establishment parties or UKIP has grown to the extent that it has sufficient influence of its own the any referendum is likely to end in failure from a UKIP perspective. Therefore the earliest one might hope for a positive scenario to arise is with a post Cameron Conservative party where the Cameroons have been purged (much as the Blairites have been purged from the hierarchy of Labour) and the rump of Thatcher betrayers have finally left politics for good and you have a Eurosceptic Tory party.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,678
    On the eve of Rotherham they were briefing that they'd win with a significantly reduced majority - http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2012/11/could-labour-lose-rotherham-election
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Presumably they're just trying to solidify their vote. It would be a sensational result though.

    Agree on both counts. Though I'd be happy to rent Mr Dancer's space cannon to dispose of the tedious purveyors of "expectation management". Most of it is teeth-gratingly obvious.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,188
    I wonder how long it will be before newspapers start including "@ and #" signs in their prose.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 3,643
    People of South Shields, remember my election guide entry when voting tomorrow. Much appreciated.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377

    @RIchardNabavi

    Err, so they get a referendum which would allow them to vote to leave

    Getting a vote to leave is not withdrawal. Given that the Prime Minister of the day will undoubtedly be Europhile and recommend whatever carve up he and the EU agree ( much like the Wilson carve up) chances are that a referendum will not deliver withdrawal and as Libdems know to their cost rashly pushing for a referendum at the wrong time puts back the primary goal decades. Why jump in with both feet if all it will do is tie you into the despised EU for another 50 years?

    Until there is a truly Eurosceptic leadership of one of the establishment parties or UKIP has grown to the extent that it has sufficient influence of its own the any referendum is likely to end in failure from a UKIP perspective. Therefore the earliest one might hope for a positive scenario to arise is with a post Cameron Conservative party where the Cameroons have been purged (much as the Blairites have been purged from the hierarchy of Labour) and the rump of Thatcher betrayers have finally left politics for good and you have a Eurosceptic Tory party.

    Sweet ****ing Jeesus, I've heard sanctimonious claptrap like that from the Lib Dems on Europe - too important for the people to have a say, will reach the wrong decision etc etc.

    Europhiles and Europhobes electing a CON majority is the only (realistic) way to get a referendum on the subect. Maybe Ed Miliband will offer one too (Probably not). Once we've had It I think the decision needs to be respected for ~ 30-40 years or so before we ask again (Everyone should probably have a vote on EU membership at least once in their adult lives). That means both sides, EU phobes and philes need to suck it up and take it.

    Honestly I thought I'd only hear that sort of argument from the EUphiles but apparently not.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,267
    It may well be an outlier but if this YouGov (ie 39/33/13/10) was accurate would we see any net Con losses to LD in the Locals?

    I would have thought a 23% Con lead over LD would imply a pretty robust Con position in Con / LD marginal wards.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,188
    The Times headline tomorrow is awful for Cameron. It's basically saying to people: vote UKIP and the prime minister might bring forward the EU referendum. To which many people will say, "okay then".
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    Labour briefing the Guardian that they may lose South Shields tomorrow

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/01/ukip-bloody-nose-labour-byelection

    kinell
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,661

    @johnloony

    Sometimes the quote button doesn't work on some mobile devices.

    That's no excuse!!!!! Do it on a computer at home!!!! I have never owned any form of "mobile device" and I do PB on my laptop here at home. Why should I pander to this tiny vast-majority of abnormal people who seem to think they deserve the luxury of using mobile phones, thereby making it orquard for the rest of us normal tiny-minority non-mobile-owners who want to follow threads on PB properly?!?!?
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    edited May 2013
    @Pulpstar

    Anyone wanting a referendum whether eusceptics or euphiles, scots nationalists or unionists naturally wants that referendum to be at a time propritious to their cause and on the correct terms.

    From an Eusceptic point of view (which I fully admit) I think personally I am of the view that going into a referendum when all of the main parties and the majority of the press is of a Europhile disposition is asking for trouble no matter how many polls indicate the better off out are leading by.

    It is a referendum heavily rigged in the favour of one viewpoint I think even the most ardent Europhile would have to admit
  • Pulpstar said:


    @RIchardNabavi

    Err, so they get a referendum which would allow them to vote to leave

    Getting a vote to leave is not withdrawal. Given that the Prime Minister of the day will undoubtedly be Europhile and recommend whatever carve up he and the EU agree ( much like the Wilson carve up) chances are that a referendum will not deliver withdrawal and as Libdems know to their cost rashly pushing for a referendum at the wrong time puts back the primary goal decades. Why jump in with both feet if all it will do is tie you into the despised EU for another 50 years?

    Until there is a truly Eurosceptic leadership of one of the establishment parties or UKIP has grown to the extent that it has sufficient influence of its own the any referendum is likely to end in failure from a UKIP perspective. Therefore the earliest one might hope for a positive scenario to arise is with a post Cameron Conservative party where the Cameroons have been purged (much as the Blairites have been purged from the hierarchy of Labour) and the rump of Thatcher betrayers have finally left politics for good and you have a Eurosceptic Tory party.

    Sweet ****ing Jeesus, I've heard sanctimonious claptrap like that from the Lib Dems on Europe - too important for the people to have a say, will reach the wrong decision etc etc.

    Europhiles and Europhobes electing a CON majority is the only (realistic) way to get a referendum on the subect. Maybe Ed Miliband will offer one too (Probably not). Once we've had It I think the decision needs to be respected for ~ 30-40 years or so before we ask again (Everyone should probably have a vote on EU membership at least once in their adult lives). That means both sides, EU phobes and philes need to suck it up and take it.

    Honestly I thought I'd only hear that sort of argument from the EUphiles but apparently not.
    Is that a joke reply? I haven't said it's too important an issue for the people to decide. The people should decide but they should decide on an even honest playing field and clearly a Cameron led government will not provide that. I've also said the first likely opportunity will be with a Eurosceptic led Conservative Party. The big problem is that we do not have currently a Eurosceptic led Conservative party and as such chances are the referendum would be lost. Are you suggesting I should vote for a party that I do not agree with and for a referendum I think likely unwinnable?

    As for when should we be consulted again should we have a referendum as far as I am concerned I will take my lead from the EU on referendums so as far as I am concerned we should keep having them until we get the right answer (from my perspective).

    However, be that as it may it won't matter in regard to 2015. There is no chance of me voting for that idiot Cameron. He and his clique are the most transparently inept politicians I can recall and currently the Conservative party is a dysfunctional shambles. It's broken (losing membership, losing vote share, almost monthly a new splinter group is announced in the PCP, its full of splits divisions and revolts etc etc). It's a mess . Beyond that I oppose sufficient of its policies that I cannot support it.

    Now if the Conservative gets a new leadership, gets its act together gets some decent policies at some point I'll look at it again but I will not waste my vote as I did in 2010. Seriously I am embarrassed that I voted Tory in 2010.

    PS And in case you had forgotten Sweet ****ing Jeesus lost a referendum/election too. It turned out terminal for him......
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,052

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Couple of Qs for tomorrow - I can't see coverage listed on the BBCs schedule, or is it just starting at 00:25?

    Also, over what timeframe can we expect results, or are a significant number of councils counting in the morning?

    According to the Times

    The first counties will start declaring at about 2.30am tomorrow but most of the results, including unitaries, will be announced after midday. Overnight timings are 2.30am Lincolnshire; 4am Dorset, Essex, Hampshire and Somerset; 6am Gloucestershire. Last is Northamptonshire at about 7pm.

    Vote 2013 Begins on BBC2 at 12pm Friday (lunchtime) until 1pm then again 5pm until 6pm
    Bah, counting should have to start at 10pm, no later!
    I wish all counts were like Sunderland South.
    I wish all counts were like The Count in Sesame Street!

    http://www.youtube.com/results?hl=en&gs_rn=11&gs_ri=psy-ab&cp=8&gs_id=m&xhr=t&q=count+sesame+street&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.45921128,d.d2k&biw=1366&bih=538&wrapid=tljp1367453150101014&um=1&ie=UTF-8&gl=GB&sa=N&tab=w1
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Couple of Qs for tomorrow - I can't see coverage listed on the BBCs schedule, or is it just starting at 00:25?

    Also, over what timeframe can we expect results, or are a significant number of councils counting in the morning?

    According to the Times

    The first counties will start declaring at about 2.30am tomorrow but most of the results, including unitaries, will be announced after midday. Overnight timings are 2.30am Lincolnshire; 4am Dorset, Essex, Hampshire and Somerset; 6am Gloucestershire. Last is Northamptonshire at about 7pm.

    Vote 2013 Begins on BBC2 at 12pm Friday (lunchtime) until 1pm then again 5pm until 6pm
    Bah, counting should have to start at 10pm, no later!
    I wish all counts were like Sunderland South.
    I wish all counts were like The Count in Sesame Street!

    http://www.youtube.com/results?hl=en&gs_rn=11&gs_ri=psy-ab&cp=8&gs_id=m&xhr=t&q=count+sesame+street&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.45921128,d.d2k&biw=1366&bih=538&wrapid=tljp1367453150101014&um=1&ie=UTF-8&gl=GB&sa=N&tab=w1

    All election shows should be like this:


  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @smithersjones2013

    Do you want an EU referendum or not?

    You say you want one,but then give a whole lot of conditions /excuses for not having one Cameron isn't leader etc.etc

    As they say in the US $hit or get off the pot.
  • john_zims said:

    @smithersjones2013

    Do you want an EU referendum or not?

    You say you want one,but then give a whole lot of conditions /excuses for not having one Cameron isn't leader etc.etc

    As they say in the US $hit or get off the pot.

    I really don't care what means are used to get us out of the EU. I want withdrawal and will vote for the party that will deliver that - end of story.......
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    The Tory party leadership are 100% europhile. Ukip have more chance of replacing the Tory party completely than getting the Tory leadership to have an unfixed referendum on the EU.

    The only caveat to that is if the City suddenly switched to europhobe in which case the Tory party would become europhobe overnight and it doesn't matter what Ukip do in the meantime.
  • MrJones said:

    The Tory party leadership are 100% europhile. Ukip have more chance of replacing the Tory party completely than getting the Tory leadership to have an unfixed referendum on the EU.

    The only caveat to that is if the City suddenly switched to europhobe in which case the Tory party would become europhobe overnight and it doesn't matter what Ukip do in the meantime.

    Well I'm sure it won't be too long before the Eurozone do sufficient damage to the City to make them reassess their position.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    The Tory party leadership are 100% europhile. Ukip have more chance of replacing the Tory party completely than getting the Tory leadership to have an unfixed referendum on the EU.

    The only caveat to that is if the City suddenly switched to europhobe in which case the Tory party would become europhobe overnight and it doesn't matter what Ukip do in the meantime.

    Well I'm sure it won't be too long before the Eurozone do sufficient damage to the City to make them reassess their position.
    That's quite possible. Until then arguments about a EU referendum which are based on an assumption of good faith on the part of the Tory leadership are just silly imo.
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