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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result in South Shields

Talking with party activists of all colours last night whose judgement I respect I believe that Ukip are set to do better in today’s local elections than the predictions.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,160
    edited May 2013
    @Old_Labour
    "The Independent poll finds strong public support for the controversial view that suspects in sex cases should enjoy the same right to anonymity as defendants"


    I'm not surprised. This is turning into a Kafkaesque nightmare for some very old men where natural justice has taken leave of its senses. The age of the accused their reputations and the time which has elapsed shows in relief an unfairness which has long been endemic in the system.

    I feel pretty sure that not only will these people be found not guilty but the humiliation of the police will be long lasting even dwarfing the 'cash for questions' and Burrell fiascos
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,357
    Tory bounce at LD expense in YouGov: 39/33/10/13, app -30. Outlier, real, who knows?

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/iqiykloo1y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-010513.pdf

    I think UKIP will come close in South Shields but not win, and will gain 150 seats. Tories losing lots of council seats, Labour a bit below expectations (NOC though Labour largest in Notts, I suspect - the Indies will be slaughtered), LibDems not as bad as they fear.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    It's all about Cornwall.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,049
    Neil said:

    It's all about Cornwall.

    it would be humiliating though if Labour did make substantial gains there. But we pbnTories have no shame, eh? Anyways, I must soon be orf to commence the sparrow-fart telling session at the Village Hall!

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JohnO said:


    it would be humiliating though if Labour did make substantial gains there

    Labour cant fail to make gains there. I also expect a Green gain in Cornwall. Substantial is in the eye of the beholder though!

    Try not to defect to the Loonies at the party tonight ;)
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900

    I think that the mid-term "Should be Labour" protest vote going instead to UKIP is the most intriguing aspect of today's voting...

    This will be a good and bad thing for the Tories. The news will be about Ukip doing well rather than Labour - who will do worse than they should - but this will spook many Conservatives who are easily panicked and the risk is that many who would normally vote Tory (and not the protestors obviously, who make up at least 50% of Ukip's vote) get into the habit of voting purple.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,104
    Labour needs 35% of the vote in 2015 to be pretty certain of returning to power in one way or another. If it gets that and UKIP also poll strongly (5% plus) it will most likely be with a majority. For the last three years or so there's been no indication that Labour won't get that. The only (recent) change has been UKIP's surge. My hunch, and it's only that, is that 2010 Labour voters and post 2010 LD to Labour switchers are the two least likely groups to vote UKIP. If today's results indicate otherwise it will be highly significant. If not, then whatever else happens the central narrative from a Labour perspective won't have changed.

    That said, this last week has been another demonstration of why Labour made a major error in choosing Ed as leader back in 2010. He is not the right man to front a campaign. He looks and sounds wrong, and lacks presence and authority. He is the archetypal policy developer; not the face of a political party.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948

    Tory bounce at LD expense in YouGov: 39/33/10/13, app -30.

    Certainly beats 'Labour Lead down to 6, Lowest in 3 months' from your pov!

    It does look like Labour have had around ±2 points shaved off their lead, the Tories flat - with UKIP the beneficiaries.

    South Shields does represent a cost free way of voters 'sending a message' to the three major parties who they are all cheesed off with - Labour's (not so local) uninspiring 'Mam' replacing the parachuted in carpet bagger off to pastures new in New York....the Conservatives 'local lass' who lives in London...the Lib Dem from Welwyn Garden City...

    As the Grauniad observes:

    "A strong showing by Ukip in South Shields, which was held by David Miliband from 2001 until he announced his retirement in March, would show that the party presents a grave threat to all parties. Polls have shown that, while the Tories are the main victim of the Ukip surge, former Labour voters are also defecting."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/01/ukip-bloody-nose-labour-byelection

    As to the locals, UKIP may do well in votes, but not so well in seats - if the Conservatives have got their 'lower council tax with Tories message across they might limit the damage...we live in interesting times...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,160
    edited May 2013
    @SO
    "That said, this last week has been another demonstration of why Labour made a major error in choosing Ed as leader back in 2010."

    And there lies the problem. An election which Labour should walk for all the reasons you mention could actually go horribly wrong. From a pretty shocking but largely unnoticed performance last week to an election campaign where he could become a laughing stock has to be a worry.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 31,819
    Roger said:

    @SO
    "That said, this last week has been another demonstration of why Labour made a major error in choosing Ed as leader back in 2010."

    And there lies the problem. An election which Labour should walk for all the reasons you mention could actually go horribly wrong. From a pretty shocking but largely unnoticed performance last week to an election campaign where he could become a laughing stock has to be a worry.

    Matthew Parris
    the Labour leader’s behaviour simply baffled me.

    You wouldn’t, please God you wouldn’t, declare in a major interview that you were going to spend £12 billion on a temporary reduction in VAT without having prepared your answer to the question: “Where’s the money coming from?”

    Obviously, the money would have to be borrowed and — heaven knows I’m no economist — there’s probably a perfectly respectable case for such a plan even if as a Tory I’m inclined to resist it. But you can’t just refuse to say it’s going to be borrowed. People are going to press the question. Hadn’t he thought of that?

    Yes, yes, I understand the media “strategy”, which was to avoid at all costs saying words that could be headlined, “ Labour will borrow to cut taxes — Miliband”, but it isn’t enough to take solemnly to heart a memo from your communications team that you mustn’t say words; you need to think of other words you can credibly say instead. Hadn’t he realised that?

    He sounded peeved that Kearney had asked the question, as though it were out of order and the fault was hers.

    I’ve a certain amount riding on Ed Miliband. I think him better than his chorus of critics say. I’ve tended to swim against the anti-Ed tide and talk him up. But during that Monday interview, something, somewhere, shifted.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,104
    Roger said:

    @SO
    "That said, this last week has been another demonstration of why Labour made a major error in choosing Ed as leader back in 2010."

    And there lies the problem. An election which Labour should walk for all the reasons you mention could actually go horribly wrong. From a pretty shocking but largely unnoticed performance last week to an election campaign where he could become a laughing stock has to be a worry.

    Labour was never going to walk it in 2015 given what happened in 2010, but whichever way you look at it Ed was a dreadful choice. I said it on the day he was elected and nothing that has happened since has caused me to change my mind, much as I would like to. Although he has improved since 2010 (if he hadn't he would have been long gone), he remains a drag on the Labour vote. Put it this way: no-one is going to vote Labour because he is leader.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 31,819
    Blue_rog said:

    I do hope people stop wiffling on about 'triple' dip recessions now.

    I would settle for all those claiming Ed Balls was right about a double dip now admitting that it was Balls all along...
  • tarletontarleton Posts: 18
    I predict that UKIP will come in second place with around 12% like they did in middlesbro by election ...expect a very low turnout of about 27% and a big labour increase from 52% to around 65%.....BNP voters will defect to UKIP
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 4,775

    Tory bounce at LD expense in YouGov: 39/33/10/13, app -30.

    As to the locals, UKIP may do well in votes, but not so well in seats - if the Conservatives have got their 'lower council tax with Tories message across they might limit the damage...we live in interesting times...
    One of the issues here is that UKIP have very little of a track record to build on.

    Local activists will have a very good idea of which wards they face a strong challenge from the Lib Dems, etc, but to an extent they are just guessing when it comes to UKIP. So Tory activists won't know in which wards it is most important to get their message across.

    From what people have said on here, I think the unknown is turnout. If new UKIP voters do bother to go out and vote, and turnout is higher, then they would do very well. The base level of turnout in local elections, and by-elections in safe Labour seats, is fairly low.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948
    Meanwhile, Separatists separate over separate currency...contd:

    "Unless Canavan and his non-SNP colleagues recant, or Salmond changes tack, it will be impossible for Yes Scotland to line up behind Salmond on his currency and monetary policy – including the vexed issue of relying on a "foreign" central bank in London - in next year's referendum campaign."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/scottish-independence-blog/2013/may/01/scottish-independence-currency-conflict
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    As a Scot the elections today are merely something to be observed. As for predictions, could today be the day the media changes the "UKIP are a threat to the Tories" narrative? I suspect UKIP will take a fair chunk of "white working class" votes today.

    At each council election since 2010, the media and pundits have forecast heavy Tory losses which have not happened. I expect the Tories will lose council seats and control of some councils but would not be surprised if they are not as bad as some have predicted. I expect Labour to underwhelm us with their gains and the LibDems yet again to fail to live up to their own rhetoric.

    The UKIP results will be the key thing. If they only take seats where "Mr Angry of this parish" lives then the Tories will be kicked hard. If they take seats where "the political class don't care about us" then Labour will also get a few shocks. Turnout will be the key.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416
    Roger said:

    @Old_Labour
    "The Independent poll finds strong public support for the controversial view that suspects in sex cases should enjoy the same right to anonymity as defendants"


    I'm not surprised. This is turning into a Kafkaesque nightmare for some very old men where natural justice has taken leave of its senses. The age of the accused their reputations and the time which has elapsed shows in relief an unfairness which has long been endemic in the system.

    I feel pretty sure that not only will these people be found not guilty but the humiliation of the police will be long lasting even dwarfing the 'cash for questions' and Burrell fiascos

    I just cannot see how you can have a fair trial of events 46 years ago, what evidence can be produced? I suppose that we will find out soon enough.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 16,549
    Maybe it is the hot house of PB but I think and fear we are going to see something pretty significant today/tomorrow. I think that UKIP will end up with something like 200 gains in a wave of anti politics that does indeed mirror what we saw with the ex clown in Italy.

    I think the tories will take the biggest hit but all three parties will be hurt and Labour in particular will find a very much reduced majority in South Shields where UKIP will come a good second, well ahead of the tories.

    I can't believe that the Lib Dems will survive unscathed, their polling is just too poor. I think UKIP will knock them into 4th on share of the vote and they will lose at least 150 councillors, maybe more.

    My estimates of tory losses has been creeping up and I think they will now lose 400+ seats.

    Labour will make the most gains , probably over 350, but their success will be overshadowed by UKIP.

    The mold may not have been broken yet but the patina of cracks will be obvious.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited May 2013
    @MSmithson
    "One thing that’s clear is that the purples are doing particularly well with working class voters – the national polling points to serious inroads with the C2DE’s of which there are many in South Shields."

    You are absolutely right. These are the people that Labour used to get elected in 1997 and then ignored them - especially when they saw nigh unrestricted immigration almost overtake their communities and change their culture.

    Hence the rise of BNP as a repository for their protest vote - but some of the aspects of BNP were not to their taste, but Labour did not listen to them (called them racists) and ignored their concerns especially when immigrants appeared to gain preference in social housing.

    The C2DEs have been most affected by technology change and globalisation which has eliminated many of the simpler white and blue collar jobs.

    This was seen at Redcar in 2010 when their protest vote went to the LDs. However, in general they are aghast at the lack of leadership, common sense and firm direction of all three parties (incidentally many of them backed Mrs Thatcher and her funeral will have reminded them of her leadership).

    So UKIP is listening to them and will be a repository for their protest. Whether UKIP can retain them in 2015 remains to be seen. It will be interest to see what happens to this alliance of C2DEs and ex-Thatcherite Cons.
  • tarletontarleton Posts: 18
    Generally speaking , UKIP only do well in LIB/Con strongholds llike Eastleigh where they take votes from disgruntled Tories; in Labour strongholds like Manchester Central , Croydon , Midddlesbro , Barnsley they get from 4 to 12%; .....South Shields is a real Labour stronghold where the Cons only got 20% in the last election

    I
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948
    One factor in turnout - the weather - looks set fine across the country - and the Shields Gazette has a voodoo poll on whether voters have taken 'more interest in politics' in the run up to the bye-election - Yes:No splits 1:2:

    http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/local-news/video-candidate-profile-karen-allen-conservative-1-5631541?showResult=true&pollContentId=7.142033
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 1,865
    Financier said:

    @MSmithson
    "One thing that’s clear is that the purples are doing particularly well with working class voters – the national polling points to serious inroads with the C2DE’s of which there are many in South Shields."

    You are absolutely right. These are the people that Labour used to get elected in 1997 and then ignored them - especially when they saw nigh unrestricted immigration almost overtake their communities and change their culture.

    Hence the rise of BNP as a repository for their protest vote - but some of the aspects of BNP were not to their taste, but Labour did not listen to them (called them racists) and ignored their concerns especially when immigrants appeared to gain preference in social housing.

    The C2DEs have been most affected by technology change and globalisation which has eliminated many of the simpler white and blue collar jobs.

    This was seen at Redcar in 2010 when their protest vote went to the LDs. However, in general they are aghast at the lack of leadership, common sense and firm direction of all three parties (incidentally many of them backed Mrs Thatcher and her funeral will have reminded them of her leadership).

    So UKIP is listening to them and will be a repository for their protest. Whether UKIP can retain them in 2015 remains to be seen. It will be interest to see what happens to this alliance of C2DEs and ex-Thatcherite Cons.

    I know this has been commented on before but I do see similarities with the SDP's. Again there was dissatisfaction with the main political parties and a large number of voters turned to them in the hope they would be something different and honest. They were let down. So we have UKiP now and again the voters are putting their trust in a new party that promises to be honest and different. If the rhetoric can be maintained and the temptation to form alliances resisted, then I could see UKiP retaining the support through the next GE, with the disaster for the Tories that that would entail.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900

    Labour needs 35% of the vote in 2015 to be pretty certain of returning to power in one way or another...

    Trouble is, even that might be optimistic. Labour only need to lose half the current LD10 switchers and they're down to 35%. Unless they pick up voters from elsewhere ("others" make up about 5pp of their 39% on today's YouGov) then it's a risky strategy isn't it?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948
    "DAVID Cameron is looking at enshrining his EU referendum pledge in law — in a bid to stem massive council defeats today.
    Tory chiefs fear losing more than 600 seats due to anti-EU party UKIP’s soaring popularity as a protest to Westminster.
    But it emerged last night that Labour may also fall short of their target of at least 400 gains.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4911663/Cameron-EU-referendum-law-plan.html#ixzz2S765CPUc

    Let the ramping begin continue!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,038
    I'm inclined to agree with those (eg Ms Vance) who expect UKIP to do well, but not well enough to win much. I suspect there'll be a lot of UKIP candidates being good seconds, or even thirds in close run seats. 30 or 29's in 31-30-29's.

    What is noticeable in Essex is the sheer number of candidates.Talking with a group yesterday, while watching county cricket ..... therefore almost by definition all of us were OAPs, I was struck by the fact that almost everyone had at least 4 candidates in their divisions, and some, like me, as many as 6.

    If I'm wrong, and UKIP do well in seats, I suspect that many in both Tory and Labour camps are going to regret their attitude to AV.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 16,549
    Blue_rog said:

    Financier said:

    @MSmithson
    "One thing that’s clear is that the purples are doing particularly well with working class voters – the national polling points to serious inroads with the C2DE’s of which there are many in South Shields."

    You are absolutely right. These are the people that Labour used to get elected in 1997 and then ignored them - especially when they saw nigh unrestricted immigration almost overtake their communities and change their culture.

    Hence the rise of BNP as a repository for their protest vote - but some of the aspects of BNP were not to their taste, but Labour did not listen to them (called them racists) and ignored their concerns especially when immigrants appeared to gain preference in social housing.

    The C2DEs have been most affected by technology change and globalisation which has eliminated many of the simpler white and blue collar jobs.

    This was seen at Redcar in 2010 when their protest vote went to the LDs. However, in general they are aghast at the lack of leadership, common sense and firm direction of all three parties (incidentally many of them backed Mrs Thatcher and her funeral will have reminded them of her leadership).

    So UKIP is listening to them and will be a repository for their protest. Whether UKIP can retain them in 2015 remains to be seen. It will be interest to see what happens to this alliance of C2DEs and ex-Thatcherite Cons.

    I know this has been commented on before but I do see similarities with the SDP's. Again there was dissatisfaction with the main political parties and a large number of voters turned to them in the hope they would be something different and honest. They were let down. So we have UKiP now and again the voters are putting their trust in a new party that promises to be honest and different. If the rhetoric can be maintained and the temptation to form alliances resisted, then I could see UKiP retaining the support through the next GE, with the disaster for the Tories that that would entail.
    There was some really interesting polling referred to yesterday which confirmed my gut feel (and was therefore obviously correct) that up to about 16% UKIP hit the tories disproportionately but after that it was the other parties that felt the strain. Today I think UKIP will poll more than 16% hitting everybody and next year they look very well placed to do even better in the Euros.

    At the moment I can't see them doing nearly as well in the GE but who knows? It is not just tories that are cheesed off with politics, the options are terrible and the Lib Dems have got what they wished for, losing the protest vote as a result.

    Interesting times and unpredictable one's too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 16,549
    @tim

    It is hard to see the tories getting more than 30% if UKIP is more than 16%. I also think there is not a chance that Labour will get anything like the 39% they are averaging with Yougov. They are likely to be down nearer 35%. I can see UKIP getting more than 20% today with the Lib Dems very badly squeezed as well, down to the very low teens.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    I think in South Shields Labour will get a majority somewhere between 5,000 and 8,000 (down from 11,000). Maybe they will be relieved to get rid of D Miliband and the vote won't get squeezed as much as it could?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Meanwhile, the incompetent leader of the nasty party demonstrates that there are none so gullible as tory eurosceptic MPs...cont:
    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics

    Cameron looks at EU referendum law in a late bid to stem poll losses http://bit.ly/11WNPVt
    How exciting, the fop's going to have another laugh "look" at his cast iron pledge.

    *chuckles*
  • tarletontarleton Posts: 18
    Having been up to South Shields 4 times in the last week , the thing that strikes me is voter apathy ; many folks do not even know that there is a By Election taking place , or have no interest in voting anyway ; it seems to me that voter apathy and low tunout will be the decisive issue ; more Tory voters will be staying at home than voting UKIP , but I suspect there will be enough disgruntled Tories /Libs and BNP supporters to drag UKIP into a poor second place like they did in Middlesbrough in November

    Labour is well organised and is certain to increase on it's 52% that they got in the last election , but while UKIP has not contested this seat since 2001 the BNP got 2300 votes or 6% and many or most of these folks will defect to UKIP...in a low turnout of around 25% UKIP doesn't need too many votes to come in a poor second

    I was up in Shields on Tuesday night for the UKIP meeting that gathered around 200 enthusiastic supporters.......200 isn't too many , is it ?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 4,775

    What is noticeable in Essex is the sheer number of candidates.Talking with a group yesterday, while watching county cricket ..... therefore almost by definition all of us were OAPs, I was struck by the fact that almost everyone had at least 4 candidates in their divisions, and some, like me, as many as 6.

    This has been a feature of the last few general elections too. There has been a massive growth in the number of candidates. In 2010 there were 1829 candidates in England in addition to those from the big three parties. This was 758 in 1992 and 101 in 1970.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,011
    Morning all!

    UKIP to win about 150 seats - Shadsy's 6/4 against 100+ is very backable.

    They should score around 20% of the vote in S Shields...which would be just dandy! :-)
  • timmotimmo Posts: 764
    I think UKIP to gain 147 seats and them to get 33% in South Shiels.
    According to the BBC they already have 15 seats but I believe they only won 7 of those with the other 8 coming from defections so I don't know if those particular seats go UKIP they will be treated as gains or not.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    They need to talk about Europe and immigration.
    That always works

    Banging on about welfare too. The tea party tories seemed to think that was a winner as well.
    As the locals will no doubt show.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,657
    Roger said:

    @Old_Labour
    "The Independent poll finds strong public support for the controversial view that suspects in sex cases should enjoy the same right to anonymity as defendants"


    I'm not surprised. This is turning into a Kafkaesque nightmare for some very old men where natural justice has taken leave of its senses. The age of the accused their reputations and the time which has elapsed shows in relief an unfairness which has long been endemic in the system.

    I feel pretty sure that not only will these people be found not guilty but the humiliation of the police will be long lasting even dwarfing the 'cash for questions' and Burrell fiascos

    I have more than a little sympathy with your view.

    But there is also another angle. As people may remember, a dear friend of mine took his life a couple of months ago. Although I cannot be sure what was going through his head in those last hours and minutes, I knew him well enough to give a good guess.

    As a child, he went to went to a boarding school in the southern hemisphere where he was subjected to some fairly hideous sexual and physical abuse. I do not know the full details, but in my opinion that abuse led to a series of long-term decisions that ended with him taking his own life.

    Historic abuse is important, and still effects people today. There was/is a court case (I am unsure of the status - he would not talk about it), and I can only hope that the people responsible are found guilty and rot in hell.

    He was interviewed for the case a few years ago after complaints from others, and sadly dredging up the events did little to help him. For this reason I always avoided talking to him about what happened; both myself and Mrs J wish we had, as talking to friends might have helped. The little we do know is rather hideous and upsetting. We should have been more proactive in helping and listening.

    I cannot really express how much the events of his childhood effected his later life. In many ways it shaped his character, his sexuality, and his relationships with family and friends.

    As a society we have decided that someone older having sex with a 15 year-old is rape. That is the case if it happened yesterday or thirty years ago. This covers all eventualities, from the bastards who abused my friend and others, to an infatuated teenager with a crush on a famous star, and regardless of harm done.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    My forecasts
    S Shields Lab 58% UKIP 26%

    Locals Actual vote share Con 30 Lab 25 UKIP 18 LD 17
    Seats Con -450 Lab + 380 UKIP + 60 LD - 60 ( around 60 fewer seats because of boundary changes .
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,008
    I would have thought that recent revelations show exactly why it is important not to have anonymity for suspects in sex cases. Many victims will not talk about the assaults they have suffered until they have heard that other victims have come forward.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,364
    Good morning, everyone.

    Bah, Labour will easily hold South Shields and then claim they've managed to 'fight off' UKIP and heroically retain a seat they've had since Claudius was emperor.

    Elsewhere, it's just a question of the scale of the kicking the blues and perhaps the yellows get, and whether it's better (in relative terms) for Labour or UKIP.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 18,345
    Nick P, why do you think Notts would go to NOC, rather than a Labour gain?

    Tarletan, there are Labour strongholds that are totally resistant to UKIP - those with lots of middle class's public sector workers/and or big BME populations, but South Shields is quite different. UKIP won 22% in Rotherham, and should do better here. They'll get most people who voted Con/Lib Dem/BNP in 2010, plus some Labour voters and non-voters.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,008
    On topic, UKIP should do very well in vote share, but Labour will be the big winners tonight. Ed Miliband will get a bit of breathing space from the recent onslaught on him personally.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @MickPork

    Welfare
    Immigration
    Europe

    What Lynton Crosby forgets is that in Australia there wasn't a party to the right of John Howard to slurp up the bile.

    What tim forgets is that the locals campaign has been about Council Tax.......but you & Pork keep up your little dialogue - entertaining If uninformative....

  • timmotimmo Posts: 764

    My forecasts
    S Shields Lab 58% UKIP 26%

    Locals Actual vote share Con 30 Lab 25 UKIP 18 LD 17
    Seats Con -450 Lab + 380 UKIP + 60 LD - 60 ( around 60 fewer seats because of boundary changes .

    I actually think Mark that the LDs could end up with net gains on the night of about 50 due to the split between UKIP and the Cons.
    Think UKIP will do a lot better than 60 though. Anecdotally reports coming in from shire MPs that in canvassing they have been haemorraging support to the kippers.
  • tarletontarleton Posts: 18

    My forecasts
    S Shields Lab 58% UKIP 26%

    Locals Actual vote share Con 30 Lab 25 UKIP 18 LD 17
    Seats Con -450 Lab + 380 UKIP + 60 LD - 60 ( around 60 fewer seats because of boundary changes .

    My forecasts
    S Shields Lab 58% UKIP 26%

    ---------------------------

    They aint going to get 26% among Labour Luddites who are still waiting for the ''Boat to come in ''.....low turnout is good for UKIP , but a poor second place of around 12-14 % sounds generous to me

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948
    antifrank said:

    I would have thought that recent revelations show exactly why it is important not to have anonymity for suspects in sex cases. Many victims will not talk about the assaults they have suffered until they have heard that other victims have come forward.

    On balance I agree - its tricky all round - no doubt some elderly gentlemen are having their reputations unfairly traduced "no smoke without fire..." While others may be finally facing long delayed justice - the key is to get these in front of Juries pronto....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416
    My guess.

    A Labour majority of 4518 in South Shields, Ukip on 28% share in second place.

    Councils: con down 350, Labour up 250, UKIP up 150, Lib Dems down 100.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    timmo said:

    I think UKIP to gain 147 seats and them to get 33% in South Shiels.
    According to the BBC they already have 15 seats but I believe they only won 7 of those with the other 8 coming from defections so I don't know if those particular seats go UKIP they will be treated as gains or not.

    Of the 7 seats UKIP won in 2009 , they lost 1 at a subsequent byelection and 3/4 of the other 6 are likely losses to Labour indeed in one the UKIP councillor is standing in a completely different division hoping to gain a seat which is Conservative held rather than try and hold his seat which is vulnerable to Labour . .

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    @tim

    The complete dimwits seemed to think a five minute PPB about the Council Tax mitigated the weeks and months of banging on about welfare, immigration and Europe. An entertaining if brainless attempt to spin away the nasty party 'master strategy'. Almost as if they finally realise it's not going to be a triumph for the fops. ;)


    LOL
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,252
    For the first time in my life I couldn't give a monkeys about an election. If it was not for the fact that I know my candidate personally, I would not bother to vote.
  • tarletontarleton Posts: 18
    timmo said:

    I think UKIP to gain 147 seats and them to get 33% in South Shiels.
    According to the BBC they already have 15 seats but I believe they only won 7 of those with the other 8 coming from defections so I don't know if those particular seats go UKIP they will be treated as gains or not.

    ===============================

    33% in South Shields ? nah , you're deluding yourself ; they only got 27 % in a lib/tory stronghold of Eastleigh

    They only got 12% in Labour strongholds like Middlesbro and Barnsley

    The UKIP reps in Shields told me they were ''HOPING '' for 20%
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 15,861
    When Labour spinners are pinning their hopes on extrpolating local votes into a GE figure you know they are desperate.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,657
    I have had one UKIP, one Labour and one Conservative leaflet through the door.

    On a walk around the village yesterday, I saw one Labour billboard.

    We're going to the polling station in a few minutes. We'll see if apathy reigns...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416

    Roger said:

    @Old_Labour
    "The Independent poll finds strong public support for the controversial view that suspects in sex cases should enjoy the same right to anonymity as defendants"


    I'm not surprised. This is turning into a Kafkaesque nightmare for some very old men where natural justice has taken leave of its senses. The age of the accused their reputations and the time which has elapsed shows in relief an unfairness which has long been endemic in the system.

    I feel pretty sure that not only will these people be found not guilty but the humiliation of the police will be long lasting even dwarfing the 'cash for questions' and Burrell fiascos

    I have more than a little sympathy with your view.

    But there is also another angle. As people may remember, a dear friend of mine took his life a couple of months ago. Although I cannot be sure what was going through his head in those last hours and minutes, I knew him well enough to give a good guess.

    As a child, he went to went to a boarding school in the southern hemisphere where he was subjected to some fairly hideous sexual and physical abuse. I do not know the full details, but in my opinion that abuse led to a series of long-term decisions that ended with him taking his own life.

    Historic abuse is important, and still effects people today. There was/is a court case (I am unsure of the status - he would not talk about it), and I can only hope that the people responsible are found guilty and rot in hell.

    He was interviewed for the case a few years ago after complaints from others, and sadly dredging up the events did little to help him. For this reason I always avoided talking to him about what happened; both myself and Mrs J wish we had, as talking to friends might have helped. The little we do know is rather hideous and upsetting. We should have been more proactive in helping and listening.

    I cannot really express how much the events of his childhood effected his later life. In many ways it shaped his character, his sexuality, and his relationships with family and friends.

    As a society we have decided that someone older having sex with a 15 year-old is rape. That is the case if it happened yesterday or thirty years ago. This covers all eventualities, from the bastards who abused my friend and others, to an infatuated teenager with a crush on a famous star, and regardless of harm done.

    I completely agree; childhood abuse is a major factor in depression and addiction later in life.

    What I struggle with is whether there can be any sort of fair trial 46 years after the event, when there can be little solid evidence, unless there are supporting credible witnesses.
  • I'll stick with my prediction from the 2013 pb prediction comp, whatever that was.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    tarleton said:

    They only got 12% in Labour strongholds like Middlesbro and Barnsley

    11.9% and labour got 60.5% in Middlesbrough.
    Interesting because it's the same UKIP candidate as South Shields. You can't really say he's a changed man since November and Middlesbrough, so it's a fairly good measure of how much UKIP may have advanced since then and how big a threat they will be in any possible future by-elections of the same type of makeup where Farage probably still hopes he can finally get a seat sooner or later.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    DavidL said:

    The mold may not have been broken yet but the patina of cracks will be obvious.

    I've heard of dampened expectations but that one breaks the mould. I still feel that the blues will be rescued by everyone-elses apathy; so the 'morrow will interest me....

  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,842
    Neil said:

    It's all about Cornwall.

    Bunkum !!

    Cornwall is infested with the yellow peril. The frontline is Harpenden !!

  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    David Miliband to gift UKIP their first seat?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 3,643
    Northamptonshire plans to declare at 7pm on Friday
  • tarletontarleton Posts: 18
    Sean_F said:

    Nick P, why do you think Notts would go to NOC, rather than a Labour gain?

    Tarletan, there are Labour strongholds that are totally resistant to UKIP - those with lots of middle class's public sector workers/and or big BME populations, but South Shields is quite different. UKIP won 22% in Rotherham, and should do better here. They'll get most people who voted Con/Lib Dem/BNP in 2010, plus some Labour voters and non-voters.

    =============================

    The Rotherham By Election is a VERY bad indicator of UKIP in south shields


    1/ Firstly , because the Labour MP did not die in office , but resigned due to accusatiions of corruption
    2/ Secondly , there was in Rotherham the outragous case of the 3 non white kids taken away from their UKIP foster parents that rightly outraged the British sense of fair play and decency and motivated folks to vote for UKIP in protest ; there is nothing like that happening in S Shields

    The By Election in nearby Middlesbrough is the best indicator of how this election will turnout

    UKIP coming in at a very poor second place

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    OT but interesting for the "Rogers" of this world.

    Bermuda and other British overseas territories with financial centres have signed agreements on sharing tax information, the Treasury has said.

    The move follows similar recent deals with Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man.

    The move is aimed at tracking down banking clients who escape paying taxes by hiding their money overseas.

    It comes amid an international drive against tax evasion and the use of tax havens......

    Other British overseas territories involved include the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Anguilla, Montserrat and the Turks and Caicos Islands .

    They will pass on bank account details, such as names, addresses, dates of birth, account numbers, account balances and payment details.

    They will share data with both the UK tax authorities and those in France, Germany, Italy and Spain.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22374923

  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    My forecatas For South Shields lab 55% UKIP 25%

    For Locals same forecast as last weeekend;

    Con -314,Lab +218,LD -3,UKIP +98

  • What will become of the British right?

    The Tories under Dave seem largely to have forgotten that they are not social democrats. There is no meaningful challenge to the ever-growing state, the entitlements mentality. There is some good progress on education. But overall iwe have seen a coninuation of the deficit spendy status quo ante.

    And the Kippers are angry about this. There is a sizable vote for a party that will be reactionary. Two fingers to the EU, to bankers, to the bien-pensant lefty intelligentsia, to PC nonsense, to nannyism, etc.

    If the Tories could ditch Dave and their social democrat tendency and the Kippers could mature from a protest party there might be the germ of a populist centre right party with decent prospects.

    The split of the right is wholly Dave's fault for being an utter paintywaist.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,005
    Now UKIP are actually threatening to win things, might we see the start of some tactical voting against them?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948
    @Financier - would never have happened under a Labour government!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,842
    News from frontline Harpenden :

    Early attempts by LibDems to vote repelled - Dressed as nuns and young mums on the school run with contraband M&S vegetarian meals in their buggies !!

    Rumours of an escape attempt by yellow peril big cheeses in an attic built glider and a tunnel under Waitrose are being investigated. All pommel horses are being verified by a friendly vet !!

    They shall not pass !!
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    Missed out vote shares so full forecast is
    S Shields Lab 55% UKIP 25%

    Locals Seat Changes Con -314,Lab +218,LD -3 UKIP +98'
    Vote shares (actual local) Con 35%,Lab 22%,LD 19%, UKIP 21%.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 3,643
    It seems this morning on BBC Today, they asked Hughes why there are no LD candidates in Liverpool this year!!!!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 14,303
    Worth bearing in mind that incumbency might be a help to a sizeable number of Tories fighting off UKIP. In some of these seats the councillors have been there donkeys' years and are well known and (dare I say it of politicians) well regarded in their local communities. That could easily rob UKIP of 50 gains they might otherwise have made.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 3,643
    edited May 2013
    118 local by-elections today too

    Defences (not taking into account defections after being elected for another party. So the party who won the seat when these Cllrs were elected)

    64 Conservatives
    29 Labour
    20 LibDems
    3 Greens
    2 Scottish Independents

    99 out of 118 are caused by resignations.
  • tarletontarleton Posts: 18
    UKIP only got 14% in Corby , while in Manchester Central ,with the lowest turnout since WW2 of only 18% ,only managed to get 5%.....they only managed to get around 5% in another Labour stronghold of Croydon

    They only managed to attract 200 enthusiastic supporters to their recent meeting in S Shields

    It's hardly surprising that UKIP managed to get 27% in a Lib/Con stronghold of eastleigh
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,599
    Patrick said:

    What will become of the British right?

    The Tories under Dave seem largely to have forgotten that they are not social democrats. There is no meaningful challenge to the ever-growing state, the entitlements mentality. There is some good progress on education. But overall iwe have seen a coninuation of the deficit spendy status quo ante.

    And the Kippers are angry about this. There is a sizable vote for a party that will be reactionary. Two fingers to the EU, to bankers, to the bien-pensant lefty intelligentsia, to PC nonsense, to nannyism, etc.

    If the Tories could ditch Dave and their social democrat tendency and the Kippers could mature from a protest party there might be the germ of a populist centre right party with decent prospects.

    The split of the right is wholly Dave's fault for being an utter paintywaist.

    Cameron is someone who thinks being a Conservative is something to be embarrassed about.

    His combination of arrogance and insecurity isn't good for a party leader.


  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    OTish but Europe Poll from YouGov.

    The French have the bleakest economic outlook, but are most supportive of a Eurozone-wide wealth tax to cover the costs of any future bailouts

    Poll covered voters in GB, Germany, France, Sweden, Finland, Denmark & Norway. Significant numbers would vote to exit the EU.

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/01/french-public-has-bleakest-economic-outlook/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 6,822
    Financier said:



    It comes amid an international drive against tax evasion and the use of tax havens......

    Good. Though there is probably more money to be had by ending corporate tax avoidance.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013


    Cameron is someone who thinks being a Conservative is something to be embarrassed about.

    His combination of arrogance and insecurity isn't good for a party leader.

    He's always going to be remembered for calling the kippers "loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists." The locals will also be a test of just how effective the attacks from him, Crosby and the tory press are as a master strategy for nullifying Farage and UKIP. If they don't work here then they are unlikely to have a great deal more traction at the EU elections or a GE.


  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Hmm am I the only one confused

    Tims line UKIP only threat to tories

    Now we have labour voter number 2 Tarleton appear talking down the UKIP chance, has Labour HQ changed tack and forgot to inform its drones or do I smell a soupcon of trouser drenching fear in the labour camp?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,038

    I have had one UKIP, one Labour and one Conservative leaflet through the door.

    On a walk around the village yesterday, I saw one Labour billboard.

    We're going to the polling station in a few minutes. We'll see if apathy reigns...

    Still no leaflets, however have voted. 0845. Some 15 numbers above ours. Poll clerk said we were first couple.

  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    @tarleton

    Time will tell how accurate you are. I would have thought Rotherham would be a pretty good guide, especially as the bandwagon has rolled on a lot since then.

    What about turnout? Is my bet on less than 35% safe?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 19,791
    BTW: there's a good piece on The Netherlands in The Telegraph today. This could well be the next serious Eurozone crisis. Because of very high consumer debt, and high house prices, we could see serious problems here.

    Household debt to GDP in the Netherlands is above 200% - the only other places with as high levels of debt are the UK, Sweden and the Netherlands.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good morning: Today is the day that british politics rolls the Dice (see my avatar).
    My prediction of 117 seat gain for UKIP still stands.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Be interesting to see if there's any kind of follow up polling in the likes of South Shields or elsewhere after today. Though to be fair it's the polling itself that's going to be under scrutiny as we wait to see just who has been closest to reality and actual voting on a large scale.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,530
    I've cast my vote..it was just before 8, but only 4 other people had voted before me..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 19,791
    I forecast that UKIP will gain 150 seats, and win South Shields.

  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Bad for the Tories and Lib Dems.

    OK, but not spectacular, for Labour (assuming they win South Shields)

    The story will be UKIP, though. As David L pointed out below, that's Very Bad News for the Tories going forward. Up to a certain threshold (around 15%?) the Tories are easily the most damaged by the UKIP rise, obviously.

    Tim's projected vote shares look about right, Labour 35% ish, Con 30% ish, Lib Dem and UKIP around 15% each.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited May 2013
    rcs1000 said:

    BTW: there's a good piece on The Netherlands in The Telegraph today. This could well be the next serious Eurozone crisis. Because of very high consumer debt, and high house prices, we could see serious problems here.

    Household debt to GDP in the Netherlands is above 200% - the only other places with as high levels of debt are the UK, Sweden and the Netherlands.

    There is are* too many empty retail units in Eindhoven. This is something I have observed for far too long.

    House-prices in the posh areas match The Midlands. New-builds in the centre can be bought for less than £150, 000 (two bedrooms).

    For Sarf Luhndahn prices you can get a nice piece of property in Parklaan (with "Private Banking" down the road). The food is crap though....

    * Efnick innit!
  • tarletontarleton Posts: 18
    MILLSY ; 35% is VERY safe ...25% sounds generous
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 675
    I think Nick Palmer is roughly on the money.

    The Tories to have a poor time in their heartlands. Anecdotally I hear they are struggling in the shires (particularly Bucks) as they've never had to work them hard before, don't have the team or structure for a fight, and are losing activists fast.

    So UKIP to do well in these areas, but not quite to make the breakthroughs predicted elsewhere. Labour to make gains but underwhelm as a result of UKIP being much stronger in the areas where Labour are non-existant.

    Lib Dems to do badly, but not quite the wipe-outs of 2011 and 2012 as UKIP increase will help them in areas facing off against Tories, and due to far smarter handling of local messaging while in Government, viz Eastleigh.

    Something like UKIP +120 Con -400 Lab +300 LD - 80


  • carlcarl Posts: 750

    I have had one UKIP, one Labour and one Conservative leaflet through the door.

    On a walk around the village yesterday, I saw one Labour billboard.

    We're going to the polling station in a few minutes. We'll see if apathy reigns...

    I've been bombarded!

    Multiple leaflets from each of Tories, Lib Dems, Labour, Green. A few door knocks (the Tory in particular was very nice but still A Tory, as I politely informed her).

    That's what we "floating voters" get, eh!
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    tim said:

    Projected vote share guess

    Lab 35
    Con 28
    LD 15
    UKIP 14

    And do you think a projected 35% for Labour is good or bad?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,645
    No UKIP leaflet - candidate lives within half a mile. Labour leaflet wasn't proof read - full of errors in grammar and spelling - very unprofessional approach. Coloured multipage leaflet from Conservatives. Three leaflets from Lib Dems - complete with link to on line survey which closed on the day of delivery. one leaflet from Greens. Very few posters on display, big drop in LD posters compared to last time round - though there was a local poll concurrent with GE. I suspect the poster numbers are down since last non GE local election.

    Not sure who will win - LDs sitting on the fence over City wide parking permit scheme, along with all the others. I would be staggered if UKIP won here - and surprised if the LD clung on; could be a Tory gain -will sit on fence and say I don't know.

    Bristol count tomorrow, result by 4 pm.

    South Shields - UKIP within 2K, but Lab hold.



  • timmotimmo Posts: 764
    Does anybody know how many councils are counting overnight?
  • The combination of, a stand alone election (no GE and no Euro) driving down turnout, a dissillusioned electorate and a viable 4th party could see results where the winner has only 1/3 of the actual winning candidate's votes in 2009.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 3,643
    timmo said:

    Does anybody know how many councils are counting overnight?

    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/local_2013_by_time.php
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 15,861
    If Ukip are a fad - like onesies - then their current sweep through the affluent areas will drip down to the chav classes in a couple of years and be only seen on sink estates.

    They've peaked too early - for Ukip and Labour.

  • tarletontarleton Posts: 18
    Many UKIP supporters are ''burning with the zeal of the converted'' and projecting that zeal into wishful thinking and self delusion ; quite frankly , they need to sober up a bit ; they'll come in second at S Shields , but not over 20% , that's for sure

    Labour has increased it's vote % in the last 7 By Elections , even when they lost in Eastleigh , and short of a miracle will increase again in S Shields from 52% to , I suspect ,around 65%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,364
    Dr. Parma, thanks for that list.

    Seems a bit slow and rubbish to me, but there we are.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 3,643
    edited May 2013
    Will Labour get Doncaster back?

    I suppose Davies will appeal to the same type of voters who are now considering voting UKIP. And he has the advantage of incumbency (and so being well known to the electorate)
This discussion has been closed.