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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result

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  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Morning!

    Have I missed anything? Been away from PB for a few days?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    With ComRes putting UKIP in/near 2nd place, 10 points clear of the LDs, surely the big story is going to be LD meltdown?

    LDs -350!
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    Morning!

    Have I missed anything? Been away from PB for a few days?

    Been in hibernation?

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:

    If Ukip are a fad - like onesies - then their current sweep through the affluent areas will drip down to the chav classes in a couple of years and be only seen on sink estates.

    They've peaked too early - for Ukip and Labour.

    Like the Reform Party of Canada and the Democratic Unionist Party?
  • I noticed that UKIP have very few candidates in Northumberland; fewer than 40% of wards. In my mother's ward there's no UKIP candidate and she will vote LibDem.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 764

    With ComRes putting UKIP in/near 2nd place, 10 points clear of the LDs, surely the big story is going to be LD meltdown?

    LDs -350!

    Lib dems wont melt down as they havent got much to lose...in fact they could end up being one of the big gainers of the evening.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Plato said:

    Morning!

    Have I missed anything? Been away from PB for a few days?

    I suppose you've come back for the building excitement and ups and downs of an election day.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    Morning!

    Have I missed anything? Been away from PB for a few days?

    Been in hibernation?

    Been watching three series of Pretty Little Liars which was most entertaining teen-girl Scooby Doo Meets Mean Girls - S3 went rather strange but its back for another later in the year so it has some life in it yet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 19,791
    I think tpkfar is probably right: the rise of UKIP will mean that the LibDems lose less than they otherwise might. (Perhaps 80-120 seats.)

    That said, they shouldn't take too much comfort from this; if UKIP fades before GE2015, then it'll could be Yellowgeddon. (Alternatively, if UKIP's rise continues, the LibDems could do a repeat of 1997, where they get 40 odd seats on a low-teens vote share.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 19,791

    I noticed that UKIP have very few candidates in Northumberland; fewer than 40% of wards. In my mother's ward there's no UKIP candidate and she will vote LibDem.

    Would she have voted UKIP if there was a candidate?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,252
    edited May 2013
    @plato

    The only thing of real note politically is Ed Milibands truly awful interview on TWAO earlier in the week. There is a radio link to the whole interview on the Spectator website.
    You might need some popcorn.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 19,791
    tarleton said:

    Many UKIP supporters are ''burning with the zeal of the converted'' and projecting that zeal into wishful thinking and self delusion ; quite frankly , they need to sober up a bit ; they'll come in second at S Shields , but not over 20% , that's for sure

    Labour has increased it's vote % in the last 7 By Elections , even when they lost in Eastleigh , and short of a miracle will increase again in S Shields from 52% to , I suspect ,around 65%

    tarleton: I will offer you 2-1 on UKIP getting less than 20% of the vote in South Shields. Any size.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    With ComRes putting UKIP in/near 2nd place, 10 points clear of the LDs, surely the big story is going to be LD meltdown?

    Clegg is relying on the kippers helping the lib dems in close fights in tory/lib dem areas.
    Theoretically it should, but turnout and some really atrocious results in other areas may stretch all credibility if he tries too hard to spin this as a good result for him personally and the lib dems.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "DAVID Cameron is looking at enshrining his EU referendum pledge in law — in a bid to stem massive council defeats today.

    Because looking into something is a surefire way to affect people's votes.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Our PB Con/Lab/Lib supporters trying hard to talk down UKIP, hoping this will diminish their coming achievements.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,011

    The South Shields result could be very interesting. By their nature, protest parties can come from nowhere and shoot up dramatically (SDP, Respect, even the Greens for a few short months).

    UKIP are the Giant Hogweed of politics. Given the right conditions ... general annoyance with the main parties, a bit of fertile soil, and some attention ... Bazinga!

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,049
    Based on two hours telling in one polling station in Surrey, I predict turnout will be higher than last year. You heard it here first.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,008
    Matt is very on topic today:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,049
    @tim - funny isn't it that this isn't being reflected in the polls, all of which have shown a modest narrowing of the Labour lead. Foolish child

    Let's reconvene tomorrow evening when the votes have all been counted.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    tim said:

    Millsy said:

    tim said:

    Projected vote share guess



    Lab 35
    Con 28
    LD 15
    UKIP 14

    And do you think a projected 35% for Labour is good or bad?
    Depends on which areas they perform strongly in.
    If Labour do well in the marginal-rich counties and UKIP screw the Tories in areas they need to win seats from the Lib Dems than that'll do nicely.

    Carve AV on Cameron's political gravestone.

    The nature of Counties is that tey are tory dominated and therfore the margibnal rich counties you mention are rare. Cumbria,Derbyshire,Nott,Herts,Kent,Lancs,Nothants,Staffs and Waewick offer best bets but the other 18 other counties are not margin rich,hence prospects for large Labour seat gains limited.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,011
    MikeK said:

    Good morning: Today is the day that british politics rolls the Dice (see my avatar).
    My prediction of 117 seat gain for UKIP still stands.

    MikeK

    You want a friendly little fun bet?

    I'll have a fiver it is more than 117. If you lose, I am sure you will be so happy that you won't even miss the little folding thing.

    Very happy to hear from others that the differences of opinion were happily resolved at DDs.

    Warm regards

    PtP
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    About a month ago I started working on a spreadsheet to predict UKIP target seats at GE2015 or any by elections that might come up in between. For South Shields I used a combination of the recent Middlesbrough & Rotherham by elections, and this is my prediction at the vote share/ No of votes (more confident in the former, the latter is more of a guess up)

    LD / Con / Lab / UKIP / BNP
    4.4 / 6.2 / 54.3 / 25.0 / 3.0
    962 / 1355 / 11924 / 5482 / 652

    I thought LD to lose deposit @5/6 and Cons to do so at 7/2 were good bets on the back of this, and obv the 5/6 UKIP >18% (all w PP)
  • samsam Posts: 727
    These are the seats I thought UKIP would do best in an GE, dont know how this translates to the locals

    S Bas & E Thurrock
    Thurrock
    Bromsgrove
    Halesown & Rowley Regis
    Staffordshire Moorlands
    Dudley North
    Morley & Outwood
    Newcastle Under Lyme**
    Stoke on Trent South
    Telford
    Walsall North
    Walsall South
    West Bromwich West
    Wolverhampton NE
    Barking
    Dag & Rain
    Plymouth Moor View
  • samsam Posts: 727
    This is my list of next best UKIP targets

    Broadland
    Great Yarmouth
    Peterborough
    West Suffolk
    Burton
    Cannock Chase
    Ludlow
    Stourbridge
    Bexhill & Battle
    Dartford
    Dover
    Folkestone & Hythe
    Hastings & Rye
    Spelthorne
    N Warks
    Brirmingham Northfield
    Stoke on Trent Central
    Stoke on Trent North
    West Brom East
    Birmingham Yardley
    Solihull
    Hx & Upm
    Erith & Thamesmead
    Bournemouth East
    Bridgewater & W Somerset
    Christchurch
    East Devon
    Kingswood
    Newton Abbot
    Poole
    SE Cornwall
    Torridge & W Devon
    Totnes
    N Devon
    Wells
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,844
    Lincolnshire; Lab, Con, UKIP and 1 independent standing in the South Kesteven ward where I live. No flyers at all, no posters in windows, no billboards seen. No visits, no sign anywhere that there is an election going on.

    For me UKIP will do better in votes that they do in seats as I am still not convinced they have the ground game to take advantage of their growing popularity. I expect them to beat the LDs in vote share though.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,052
    Good moaning! I brung you a massage: Good Lick to all those taking pert in the Loocal Eluctions!
  • My seat change forecast: Lab+ 450, UKIP +80, LD -30, Tories -500
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,008
    Rafael Behr in the New Statesman decides to join the Ed Is Crap Redux movement:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics/2013/05/miliband’s-turn-street-preacher-hampered-his-lack-disciples

    The most biting passages are near the end:

    "The undercurrent of dread I detect in the Labour ranks flows not from the feeling that Miliband belongs to the wrong faction but from the sense that his whole project is becalmed."

    "His leadership is based on the claim to have foreseen a great change in the climate of British politics. He is meant to be capturing the mood of the country as it turns away from the Tories. Instead, he’s picking up Ukip’s moody leftovers."
  • carlcarl Posts: 750

    He is not the right man to front a campaign. He looks and sounds wrong, and lacks presence and authority.

    Thing about Ed Miliband is he's got almost everything you'd expect in a potential PM. Toughness, a head for strategy, a nose for the electorate, sharp communicator often flooring Cameron at PMQs. BUT just doesn't look like a natural. Clearly for casual / floating voters that can be crucial.

    That said, few PMs have the lot (Thatcher and Blair at times I suppose)

    Cameron and Brown looked like naturals, but just not very good underneath it.

    Major, I suppose, was closest to Miliband. A good politician, somewhat lacking in the look of natural authority stakes. He won an election, of course!

    Anyway, best leave the subject of Ed or the PBTories will be off on one again...
  • timmotimmo Posts: 764
    Driving around the M25 this morning just past the jct with the M3 are there are 3 huge UKIP posters in a field..great advertising for them
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,008
    Sunny Hundal has tweeted a reference to a Bloomberg article that is nominally about Paul Krugman and US politics but could be about anyone engaging in argument:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-30/paul-krugman-s-proud-war-on-fools-knaves-and-lunatics.html

    It's well-written and well-argued, and I have absolutely no doubt that Paul Krugman won't take a blind bit of notice of it, even though it comes from someone who is sympathetic to his viewpoint.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013

    MikeK said:

    Good morning: Today is the day that british politics rolls the Dice (see my avatar).
    My prediction of 117 seat gain for UKIP still stands.

    MikeK

    You want a friendly little fun bet?

    I'll have a fiver it is more than 117. If you lose, I am sure you will be so happy that you won't even miss the little folding thing.

    Very happy to hear from others that the differences of opinion were happily resolved at DDs.

    Warm regards

    PtP
    I was looking for you at DD's as soon as I arrived. Alas it soon transpired that the place was sans Peter. I should have said 117±, however, glad for a fiver on anything under 120, but remember I said gains not seats, so please yourself. What is your prediction?

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The LibDems have given up!

    "Now the Lib Dems are in government. Now more than ever they have a chance to raise the profile of liberal issues. And let’s face it – having failed dramatically to make the slightest bit of difference to our democracy, it’s what they have left.

    But the Lib Dems are going to end their first chance at government for the best part of a century having made no real liberal advances. Sure, they’ve stopped the Tories from doing some stuff – though not everything their members would like – but there is not going to be a single bit of legislation that they can count to and say “we made our kind of difference”.

    When I point this out to my Liberal friends I get two kinds of answers. The “coalition” or the “electability” response. Neither are an excuse.

    The coalition argument just shows how little faith they ever had in the arguments they made (and lost) about reforming our democracy. Sure they can’t get everything they want, but they aren’t getting anything they want. They are failing the arguments for coalition by failing to show how it might work beyond the shuffling of chairs & a few ministerial limos.

    The electability argument is worse. Not only is it everything they accused me and other Labour supporters of being for 13 years, but it is also – unforgivably – bad politics. Refusing to campaign on the one thing that made you unique is now the one thing you refuse to do. Because you’re frightened people won’t vote for it. Well you can’t win an argument if you don’t make an argument."

    http://labourlist.org/2013/05/the-lib-dems-have-given-up/
  • timmotimmo Posts: 764
    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning: Today is the day that british politics rolls the Dice (see my avatar).
    My prediction of 117 seat gain for UKIP still stands.

    MikeK

    You want a friendly little fun bet?

    I'll have a fiver it is more than 117. If you lose, I am sure you will be so happy that you won't even miss the little folding thing.

    Very happy to hear from others that the differences of opinion were happily resolved at DDs.

    Warm regards

    PtP
    I was looking for you at DD's as soon as I arrived. Alas it soon transpired that the place was sans Peter. I should have said 117±, however, glad for a fiver on anything under 120, but remember I said gains not seats, so please yourself. What is your prediction?

    This is my problem..how and who qulifies what a gain is..if the current UKIP crop (15) is made up of eight defectors from other parties will they count as losses?
    Only 7 seats are being recontested where they have actually been elected
  • samsam Posts: 727
    carl said:

    He is not the right man to front a campaign. He looks and sounds wrong, and lacks presence and authority.

    Thing about Ed Miliband is he's got almost everything you'd expect in a potential PM. Toughness, a head for strategy, a nose for the electorate, sharp communicator often flooring Cameron at PMQs. BUT just doesn't look like a natural. Clearly for casual / floating voters that can be crucial.

    That said, few PMs have the lot (Thatcher and Blair at times I suppose)

    Cameron and Brown looked like naturals, but just not very good underneath it.

    Major, I suppose, was closest to Miliband. A good politician, somewhat lacking in the look of natural authority stakes. He won an election, of course!

    Anyway, best leave the subject of Ed or the PBTories will be off on one again...
    I agree with most of what you are saying, it is unfortunate for Ed, and for society I suppose, that we live in an X Factor/TOWIE/Big Brother (tv show) age, where superficiality, showmanship and presentation are more important than any serious issue to huge swathes of the country

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 15,753
    Just back from voting. Beautiful day and the folks at the polling station have had regular business and are expecting a constant flow of customers due to the weather. Not many signs of canvassing but we had a line up of 5 candidates - C\L\LD\UK\Grn.

    Didn't vote blue for about the first time in 30 yrs.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 764
    tim said:

    Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 8m
    UKIP to gain over 100 seats today is now Evens from yesterday's 7/4. http://bit.ly/105rJvv

    I got on at 5/2 a week and a half ago..hedged up with the 50-100 at 2/1

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,008
    @JosiasJessop Margaret Thatcher was a very average secretary of state. Winston Churchill's entire political career had been characterised by conspicuous failures at every stage.

    A politician's performance in Cabinet doesn't seem to be much of a predictor for their performance as Prime Minister. For what it's worth, I too rate Ed Miliband as a leader, but he lacks the X factor and he is currently showing some fragility under aerial bombardment. He needs to regroup a little and take some bolder decisions on strategy. If there's one thing he could learn from Tony Blair, it's that we're at our best when we're at our boldest.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    antifrank said:

    Sunny Hundal has tweeted a reference to a Bloomberg article that is nominally about Paul Krugman and US politics but could be about anyone engaging in argument:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-30/paul-krugman-s-proud-war-on-fools-knaves-and-lunatics.html

    It's well-written and well-argued, and I have absolutely no doubt that Paul Krugman won't take a blind bit of notice of it, even though it comes from someone who is sympathetic to his viewpoint.

    Did you see Nate Silver on Daily Politics yeaterday? I bought the book you recommended after watching him...love referring to bullsh*t/opinion as "noise"

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,011
    timmo said:

    tim said:

    Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 8m
    UKIP to gain over 100 seats today is now Evens from yesterday's 7/4. http://bit.ly/105rJvv

    I got on at 5/2 a week and a half ago..hedged up with the 50-100 at 2/1

    I imagine it will be odds on soon.

    Don't think they'll win SShields though. Anything above 20% would be good.

  • 1st shock of the day.
    "lucy manning @lucymanning
    Break: Presenter Stuart Hall pleads guilty to 14 indecent assaults against girls aged 9-17"
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,008
    @sam I get to see very little TV, so no. But that book is very good.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,011
    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning: Today is the day that british politics rolls the Dice (see my avatar).
    My prediction of 117 seat gain for UKIP still stands.

    MikeK

    You want a friendly little fun bet?

    I'll have a fiver it is more than 117. If you lose, I am sure you will be so happy that you won't even miss the little folding thing.

    Very happy to hear from others that the differences of opinion were happily resolved at DDs.

    Warm regards

    PtP
    I was looking for you at DD's as soon as I arrived. Alas it soon transpired that the place was sans Peter. I should have said 117±, however, glad for a fiver on anything under 120, but remember I said gains not seats, so please yourself. What is your prediction?

    Had other business that day, Mike. Sorry.

    Hey, you said 117! No matter - I'll take 120 since it is only a fiver, which you can send to the charity of my choice when they get the 150 I am expecting.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    timmo said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning: Today is the day that british politics rolls the Dice (see my avatar).
    My prediction of 117 seat gain for UKIP still stands.

    MikeK

    You want a friendly little fun bet?

    I'll have a fiver it is more than 117. If you lose, I am sure you will be so happy that you won't even miss the little folding thing.

    Very happy to hear from others that the differences of opinion were happily resolved at DDs.

    Warm regards

    PtP
    I was looking for you at DD's as soon as I arrived. Alas it soon transpired that the place was sans Peter. I should have said 117±, however, glad for a fiver on anything under 120, but remember I said gains not seats, so please yourself. What is your prediction?

    This is my problem..how and who qulifies what a gain is..if the current UKIP crop (15) is made up of eight defectors from other parties will they count as losses?
    Only 7 seats are being recontested where they have actually been elected
    I shall take the number of gains as posited by the UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 site as first proof.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning: Today is the day that british politics rolls the Dice (see my avatar).
    My prediction of 117 seat gain for UKIP still stands.

    MikeK

    You want a friendly little fun bet?

    I'll have a fiver it is more than 117. If you lose, I am sure you will be so happy that you won't even miss the little folding thing.

    Very happy to hear from others that the differences of opinion were happily resolved at DDs.

    Warm regards

    PtP
    I was looking for you at DD's as soon as I arrived. Alas it soon transpired that the place was sans Peter. I should have said 117±, however, glad for a fiver on anything under 120, but remember I said gains not seats, so please yourself. What is your prediction?

    Had other business that day, Mike. Sorry.

    Hey, you said 117! No matter - I'll take 120 since it is only a fiver, which you can send to the charity of my choice when they get the 150 I am expecting.
    If UKIP get 150± seat gain, I'll not only send the fiver but give you a big kiss as well. ;)

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,657
    antifrank said:

    @JosiasJessop Margaret Thatcher was a very average secretary of state. Winston Churchill's entire political career had been characterised by conspicuous failures at every stage.

    A politician's performance in Cabinet doesn't seem to be much of a predictor for their performance as Prime Minister. For what it's worth, I too rate Ed Miliband as a leader, but he lacks the X factor and he is currently showing some fragility under aerial bombardment. He needs to regroup a little and take some bolder decisions on strategy. If there's one thing he could learn from Tony Blair, it's that we're at our best when we're at our boldest.

    A good point. But a PM needs to make decisions that are in the national interest, not be swayed by whatever Z-list celebrity whispers in his ear.

    Miliband has a sad track record of doing exactly that. I fail to see how that would magically stop when/if he becomes PM.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    timmo said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning: Today is the day that british politics rolls the Dice (see my avatar).
    My prediction of 117 seat gain for UKIP still stands.

    MikeK

    You want a friendly little fun bet?

    I'll have a fiver it is more than 117. If you lose, I am sure you will be so happy that you won't even miss the little folding thing.

    Very happy to hear from others that the differences of opinion were happily resolved at DDs.

    Warm regards

    PtP
    I was looking for you at DD's as soon as I arrived. Alas it soon transpired that the place was sans Peter. I should have said 117±, however, glad for a fiver on anything under 120, but remember I said gains not seats, so please yourself. What is your prediction?

    This is my problem..how and who qulifies what a gain is..if the current UKIP crop (15) is made up of eight defectors from other parties will they count as losses?
    Only 7 seats are being recontested where they have actually been elected
    If they hold the seats of defectors they will be counted as gains . As posted up thread they have already lost 1 of the 7 2009 wins at a byelection . Of the other 6 one councillor has moved from his division which will be lost to Labour to stand in a Conservative division .

  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    antifrank said:

    @sam I get to see very little TV, so no. But that book is very good.

    It will be on the iPlayer if you would like to watch, about 10 mins at the end of the show

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01sb9y7/Daily_Politics_01_05_2013/
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    South Shields is I think relatively easy to forecast (famous last words!): Labour something like 55% to 60%, in accordance with history going back to the 1930s, boosted by left-leaning 2010 LibDem defectors, and helped by a good organisation on postal votes. UKIP will pick up most of the 2010 BNP vote, plus a large chunk of Conservative and LibDem 2010 voters and some Labour defectors, putting them easily into second place on something like 25%.

    The locals are anyone's guess, frankly. We know that UKIP will do well, but whether that's well enough to win many seats, with little or no organisation, and often against well-entrenched incumbents, is almost impossible to say. My hunch is that they will get lots of good second and third places, but fewish actual seats, but I can't say I have great confidence in that prediction.

    The key thing to watch is the degree to which UKIP take votes off Labour, LibDems and others. My guess is that (as in Eastleigh) this will happen to a much greater extent than would be expected from the national opinion polls, especially in the kinds of seat which Sean Fear has pointed to as UKIP-friendly.
  • samsam Posts: 727

    1st shock of the day.
    "lucy manning @lucymanning
    Break: Presenter Stuart Hall pleads guilty to 14 indecent assaults against girls aged 9-17"

    These stories are unbelievable arent they? Childhood memories tarnished forever.. of course not on the same scale as the victims

    My heart so wants to believe that Rolf Harris is innocent.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 4,775
    ANECDOTE ALERT
    --
    I went to vote this morning and there was an elderly couple already at the polling station being told that they were not on the electoral register.

    I don't know who they were intending to vote for, but it is easy to see that this could be a problem for UKIP. If UKIP are interesting a lot of people who have not voted for a while, some of those people will find out today that they are not registered to vote. This is where local organisation can make a big difference, because effort can be made to ensure that potential supporters are registered to vote.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,008
    @JosiasJessop It's also worth noting that there are Prime Ministers who did the opposite. Both Neville Chamberlain and Anthony Eden had seemed like stars up to the point that they became Prime Minister. In years to come, others might add Gordon Brown to this list.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,011
    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning: Today is the day that british politics rolls the Dice (see my avatar).
    My prediction of 117 seat gain for UKIP still stands.

    MikeK

    You want a friendly little fun bet?

    I'll have a fiver it is more than 117. If you lose, I am sure you will be so happy that you won't even miss the little folding thing.

    Very happy to hear from others that the differences of opinion were happily resolved at DDs.

    Warm regards

    PtP
    I was looking for you at DD's as soon as I arrived. Alas it soon transpired that the place was sans Peter. I should have said 117±, however, glad for a fiver on anything under 120, but remember I said gains not seats, so please yourself. What is your prediction?

    Had other business that day, Mike. Sorry.

    Hey, you said 117! No matter - I'll take 120 since it is only a fiver, which you can send to the charity of my choice when they get the 150 I am expecting.
    If UKIP get 150± seat gain, I'll not only send the fiver but give you a big kiss as well. ;)

    Oh you Sweetie! My heart's all of a flutter now. But stop now, or Young Jack will get jealous.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377
    Will the elections be a knockout for UKIP, or will it be a coronation for Ed Miliband.
  • Rogerdamus, with the 2nd post on the thread, scores a direct hit.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    Shares in Peter Gabriel will be through the floor as Games Without Frontiers will never be played on the radio again
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,530

    Rogerdamus, with the 2nd post on the thread, scores a direct hit.

    To be fair to Roger it's very easy to take that view, given the length of time, and I can't help but at times feeling the same.

    However, this mornings admission from Stuart Hall...wow. These people need to be chased to the ends of the earth and throughout time..

  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    tim said:

    Ben Chu ‏@BenChu
    France selling debt at record low interest rates of 1.7%. Will Osborne congratulate Hollande for winning vote of confidence from markets?

    The countries that pay more are those locked into the Euro and subject to forced austerity measures. Plus they don't have economies of a size that are likely to earn their way out of debt or have unstable governments.

    I agree with Andrew Neil, that there is very little difference between Labour and Tories on borrowing levels. Labour have suggested pretty modest additional borrowing which they think will stimulate the economy enough to gain a return. Tories don't believe in trying to stimulate demand, by such measures as a VAT cut, as they don't believe they would get back the £12bn a 2.5% VAT cut would cost per year. So it is an argument about what small fiscal changes a government can make that would make any difference.

    As the amounts involved to provide a stimulas are small in comparison to the debt level, it would make no difference to bond rates.
  • Police reporting on R5 live that a rape allegation against Hall, has been dropped by the victim after he pleaded guilty to the assaults.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    My gob is ghasted - Stuart Hall? Girls as young as 9yrs old?

    I'm stunned. I really don't know what I expected as a verdict - but somehow I'm still shellshocked.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948
    edited May 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    The locals will also be a test of just how effective the attacks from him, Crosby and the tory press

    Like the Mirror?

    UKIP: Nigel Farage claims candidate Alex Wood's 'Nazi salute' was him 'imitating pot plant'
    2 May 2013 08:44
    The extraordinary excuse came as the UKIP leader tried to put a brave face on the growing list of his party’s embarrassing candidates

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-says-1864752#ixzz2S7vEzyo6
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377
    @Plato Thats going to get moderated faster than a custard pie ;)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013

    Rogerdamus, with the 2nd post on the thread, scores a direct hit.


    When the police leaks about High Profile celebs was first floated - I wasn't surprised by a couple of the names that popped up, but others have been Gold Standard WTF territory.

    Stuart Hall is the archetypal jovial, erudite, perfect uncle character who'd you'd trust your kids with without a seconds thought.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    sam said:

    These are the seats I thought UKIP would do best in an GE, dont know how this translates to the locals


    S Bas & E Thurrock
    Thurrock
    Bromsgrove
    Halesown & Rowley Regis
    Staffordshire Moorlands
    Dudley North
    Morley & Outwood
    Newcastle Under Lyme**
    Stoke on Trent South
    Telford
    Walsall North
    Walsall South
    West Bromwich West
    Wolverhampton NE
    Barking
    Dag & Rain
    Plymouth Moor View

    Most of these are in Metropolitan or Unitary coundils which are not voting today

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013

    Mick_Pork said:

    The locals will also be a test of just how effective the attacks from him, Crosby and the tory press

    Like the Mirror?

    UKIP: Nigel Farage claims candidate Alex Wood's 'Nazi salute' was him 'imitating pot plant'
    2 May 2013 08:44
    The extraordinary excuse came as the UKIP leader tried to put a brave face on the growing list of his party’s embarrassing candidates

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-says-1864752#ixzz2S7vEzyo6
    I'm really enjoying the Kipper stories - they're so trivial most of the time. The Mail has one about a Kipper candidate once sacked because he was a copper who was also a male escort in 2001. I really don't care. And what was that one about the Kipper candidate's brother knowing someone who likes Nazis?

    Makes elections more colourful to me. More lap-dancing - if Cynthia Payne was a Kipper - she'd be offering Luncheon Vouchers to voters.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Off for a walk in Kew Gardens; first time this year, to cool the head and prepare for the countdown.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    A great graphic from the Sun:

    Sun columnist gives his ballot advice to voter thinking of fling with UKIP

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4911579/ukip-council-elections-trevor-kavanagh.html
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,222
    edited May 2013
    Farage was right to say that extreme candidates were in the minority. Deny and exclude was a perfectly viable policy. The extraordinary defence the Mirror quote him as undertaking is a huge tactical error. Farage need not defend this man and yet somehow he is quoted as having done so. This is evenmoreso given the nature of the excuse, which is both dubious and, well, all sounds rather silly. (Hence my doubt over the story.) No gravitas is denying someone is doing a Nazi salute if it involves an assertion he was imitating a pot plant.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Prospective Labour supporters in South Shields should reflect on how they've been abandoned and snubbed by millionaire Londoner David Miliband for a cushy and highly-paid charidee job in the US. Frankly they should give the snobbish Labour Party a well-merited bloody nose and vote UKIP.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 14,303
    The lights will shine a little dimmer on football commentaries after today. Hall's post-match summaries were golden moments of radio. And now we have gone from gilt to guilt. Damn it.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    If Al-Beeb was the Catholic Church the Leftards would be outraged (with Wee-Timmy to the fore). But no, Al-Beeb is as sacred as the Mohamedian-cult: Nothing to see here folks....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 15,753
    Plato said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    The locals will also be a test of just how effective the attacks from him, Crosby and the tory press

    Like the Mirror?

    UKIP: Nigel Farage claims candidate Alex Wood's 'Nazi salute' was him 'imitating pot plant'
    2 May 2013 08:44
    The extraordinary excuse came as the UKIP leader tried to put a brave face on the growing list of his party’s embarrassing candidates

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-says-1864752#ixzz2S7vEzyo6
    I'm really enjoying the Kipper stories - they're so trivial most of the time. The Mail has one about a Kipper candidate once sacked because he was a copper who was also a male escort in 2001. I really don't care. And what was that one about the Kipper candidate's brother knowing someone who likes Nazis?

    Makes elections more colourful to me. More lap-dancing - if Cynthia Payne was a Kipper - she'd be offering Luncheon Vouchers to voters.
    the creeping sense of panic from the big three is quite fun to watch, and if anything might lead to a bit of a shake-up in the Westminster bubble. We'll have to await the results to see if the performance matches the hype. If Farage starts to make inroads into the traditional labour vote in the North the the next GE could be a real swinger - bring it on, ya baby.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,222
    antifrank said:

    @JosiasJessop It's also worth noting that there are Prime Ministers who did the opposite. Both Neville Chamberlain and Anthony Eden had seemed like stars up to the point that they became Prime Minister. In years to come, others might add Gordon Brown to this list.

    The two might be related. As regards Eden, history has defined the man by Suez - rightly or wrongly - and Eden was of course very prominent before the War in the foreign office. A man perhaps too tied to his previous success.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Of the 118 council byelections today Conservatives are defending 64 , Labour 29 , Lib Dems 20 , greens 3 and Ind 2 . Conservatives have held 1 unopposed and lost 1 in Scarborough ( and overall control of the council ) as their candidate withdrew . Lib Dems have lost 1 as they failed to put up a candidate .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 14,303

    A great graphic from the Sun:

    What it doesn't show in the last frame though is the poor lass having to spend five years bunking up with Ed Miliband as a consequence of losing both of these men in her life.... That should make her shudder!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    The lights will shine a little dimmer on football commentaries after today. Hall's post-match summaries were golden moments of radio. And now we have gone from gilt to guilt. Damn it.

    I felt the same about the R5 swimming commentary when Hamilton Bland was sacked after being accused of taking backhanders. He was a great voice on the radio.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamilton_Bland
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 3,643
    edited May 2013
    12,125 postal votes returned in South Shields as of yesterday
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    Anecdote alert - just conducted a random poll of Tesco check-out staff and taxi drivers - total 3.

    All have a polling card - all three not sure if they'll bother even though one even actually has it in his cab. Reasoning is lack of interest/no signs up at all in the local area, only independent candidates for the local residents ass. have a chance of winning in their ward [four councillors are all from the same Chinese family] or general antipathy to politics.

    I have my polling card and could have made a detour home and voted - I decided the £5 it would cost me was too expensive to bother.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,530
    I just thought screw it, and voted UKIP...
  • samsam Posts: 727
    rogerh said:

    sam said:

    These are the seats I thought UKIP would do best in an GE, dont know how this translates to the locals


    S Bas & E Thurrock
    Thurrock
    Bromsgrove
    Halesown & Rowley Regis
    Staffordshire Moorlands
    Dudley North
    Morley & Outwood
    Newcastle Under Lyme**
    Stoke on Trent South
    Telford
    Walsall North
    Walsall South
    West Bromwich West
    Wolverhampton NE
    Barking
    Dag & Rain
    Plymouth Moor View

    Most of these are in Metropolitan or Unitary coundils which are not voting today

    Thanks. I dont know where the voting is taking place today, and couldnt be arsed to filter out the NRs

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    I must say that the CPS chappy in the NWest - Nazir Afzal, is really taking the bull by the horns from this to paedo-gangs et al - I couldn't name another prosecutor bar Keir Starmer.

    Could he be the frame to take over? IIRC Mr Starmer is stepping down shortly.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    Sunny Hundal has tweeted a reference to a Bloomberg article that is nominally about Paul Krugman and US politics but could be about anyone engaging in argument:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-30/paul-krugman-s-proud-war-on-fools-knaves-and-lunatics.html

    It's well-written and well-argued, and I have absolutely no doubt that Paul Krugman won't take a blind bit of notice of it, even though it comes from someone who is sympathetic to his viewpoint.

    I sympathy with that Bloomberg argument, but Krugman's response is a pretty good one. He says that in other debates he's very willing to treat the other side in a more reasonable way, but on the big US political debates at the moment the other side is being deliberately obtuse. The fact that that Bloomberg journalist once suggested Paul Ryan was one of the reasonable, honest people that Krugman should be engaged with kind of backs up Krugman's perspective.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 3,845
    Plato said:

    My gob is ghasted - Stuart Hall?

    Tsk. Gobs are smacked. It's your flabber which is ghasted.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 15,861

    12,125 postal votes returned in South Shields as of yesterday

    Total disgrace - lazy feckers.


  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    12,125 postal votes returned in South Shields as of yesterday

    That's not bad - the figure should increase further today. I think it was you who commented on UK Polling Report that the total was 18,422 last time. It suggests turnout may not be too low, and that Labour will indeed walk it.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Here's a good argument pointing out that economists have a huge blind spot when it comes to incorporating the effects of culture into their theories:

    http://marcfbellemare.com/wordpress/2013/04/is-culture-useless-as-an-explanation-for-behavior/

    Also see the creation of the Eurozone and whether mass immigration is a good idea...
  • MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning: Today is the day that british politics rolls the Dice (see my avatar).
    My prediction of 117 seat gain for UKIP still stands.

    MikeK

    You want a friendly little fun bet?

    I'll have a fiver it is more than 117. If you lose, I am sure you will be so happy that you won't even miss the little folding thing.

    Very happy to hear from others that the differences of opinion were happily resolved at DDs.

    Warm regards

    PtP
    I was looking for you at DD's as soon as I arrived. Alas it soon transpired that the place was sans Peter. I should have said 117±, however, glad for a fiver on anything under 120, but remember I said gains not seats, so please yourself. What is your prediction?

    Had other business that day, Mike. Sorry.

    Hey, you said 117! No matter - I'll take 120 since it is only a fiver, which you can send to the charity of my choice when they get the 150 I am expecting.
    If UKIP get 150± seat gain, I'll not only send the fiver but give you a big kiss as well. ;)

    Oh you Sweetie! My heart's all of a flutter now. But stop now, or Young Jack will get jealous.
    PtP - I'll owe you a big thank you also if the Kippers win > 100 seats today, after seeing your post a couple of days ago and wagering a score at 15/8 with Ladbrokes. Until then I hadn't seen any betting markets relating to the Local Elections, although I've since noticed that Paddy Power has a grouping of rather esoteric bets based on the BBC's extrapolation of each party's theoretical national share of the vote, based on the local election results ....... no thanks, not for me!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377

    I just thought screw it, and voted UKIP...

    I'll decide in the ballot box. If it was a GE I'd vote CON, but UKIP are the only party that are going to be able to run Labour anywhere close in my ward I think, and they are opposed to HS2. HS2 runs straight through the stables we keep the horses in at. For this Local I am waivering in my head.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 15,861

    I just thought screw it, and voted UKIP...

    No Kipper in my ward - voted Con to ensure the awful Greens finish last.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 3,643
    edited May 2013

    12,125 postal votes returned in South Shields as of yesterday

    That's not bad - the figure should increase further today. I think it was you who commented on UK Polling Report that the total was 18,422 last time. It suggests turnout may not be too low, and that Labour will indeed walk it.

    And 14,570 in 2012 locals. I guess they will reach that figure today

    In 2012 with 14.5k postals, the overall turnout per ward was

    Beacon and Bents 37% turnout
    Biddick and All Saints (28.1%)
    Cleadon Park (33.6%)
    Harton (34.2%)
    Horsley Hill (37.8)
    Simonside and Rekendyke (29.1%)
    West Park (33.2)
    Westoe (32.8)
    Whitburn and Marsden (37.8)
    Whiteleas (32.2)


  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 15,861
    Pulpstar said:

    I just thought screw it, and voted UKIP...

    If it was a GE I'd vote CON,

    There will be a lot of that - why any extrapolation to GE intention should be taken with a large pinch of salt.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,222
    I'll be voting Con in an area which is a safe Laboour seat, where the incumbent is standing again - I'm essentially freed to vote on principle. If I were in a Labour/UKIP marginal, I would have trouble deciding.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Which councils do we think Kippers will do best in vote wise? Or even - shock-horror win wise?

    We had the great surprise beheading of the leader of RTWells a year or so ago - can they take out another big fish either by design or accident again?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 18,345
    Tarleton, things have moved on from last year. UKIP's overall rating is now about 5% higher than it was. The party has a momentum behind it, nearly won Eastleigh, and has gained three seats in by-elections. 20% would be rather a poor result in South Shields, IMHO. The party's victory in Gooshays shows that it can win white working class voters, in a historically Labour-voting area (Gooshays only returned Labour councillors from 1964 to 2006). I expectLabour to hold South Shields pretty comfortably, but UKIP to get to 30% or so.

    UKIP had a good organisation in Eastleigh. But, in other respects, it shouldn't have been fertile territory for them. It's an affluent constituency, and UKIP tend to do best among working class voters. And, it's a Conservative/Lib Dem marginal, where you'd expect other parties to be squeezed.

    In the Counties, the more prosperous Conservative-voting areas probably won't see much of a UKIP breakthrough. It's the Conservative divisions (and some divisions held by other parties) where there are a lot of pensioners and/or working class voters where you should expect to see strong results.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,645
    edited May 2013
    One guy on Twitter claims he is going to vote twice for Labour in Bristol & Cornwall - is he a politics student?

    pic.twitter.com/YRa6Aqa9ry
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 15,861
    NIESR upgrades it's estimate for the UK GDP for 2013 to 0.9 from 0.7..

  • theakestheakes Posts: 320
    Like the vast majority I will not be voting today
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Voted Labour in my north Kent ward just before half seven this morning.

    UKIP teller was dozing at the door. I grunted at him. That'll show 'em!
This discussion has been closed.