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HYUFD

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HYUFD
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  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reshuffle has left TMay weaker but has it hastened her dep

    Mike says that May may like to continue to the next election but I cannot see how this would work.

    She will either fight or not fight the next election. If she doesn`t fight it then she will have to step down well before the next election for a successor to establish him/herself.

    So she either goes well before 2022 or she stays to fight the next election as leader.

    My guess is that she will stay on past the next election (and I`m on Jeremy Hunt to (eventually) be the next leader - he`s playing his cards well at the moment).
    She will go certainly by the end of the transition period most likely replaced by Davis or Boris with Gove also a contender if he does not back the latter
    To be honest they are the past. Listening to Hunt on the NHS in the house today he was very impressive. This last few days has finished the chances of the old guard and there are some really good prospects coming into view. Give it 6 months and the position will be much clearer
    The biggest swing from the Tories in the polls since the general election has not been to Labour but to UKIP, Hunt is not going to win them back, Boris or Davis might.
    It is over for the old guard and for Boris and Davis.

    No it is not, as I said Boris is no more 'old guard' than Hunt and it is Tory to UKIP voters the Tories need to focus on, those who voted for Corbyn in June will almost all certainly vote for him again next time regardless of the Tory leader.
    The need for the new leader post Brexit is to regain the remainers, UKIP is dying and will be gone by summer 2019
    No it is not. Remainers are not suddenly going to switch to a Brexit backing Tory Party, especially if they have already voted for Corbyn. The only switchers from Labour to Tory likely are those angered by the dementia tax.

    The only chance the Tories have next time of a 4th successive government is to refight the 1992 general election ie where Major held almost all the 1987 Tory vote and scrapped the poll tax ie hold all the 2017 Tory vote and scrap the dementia tax policy and hammer Corbyn on tax, especially IHT
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly Oprah Winfrey becomes second favourite for next Presi

    Rory Stewart MP becomes Minister of State at Ministry of Justice.

    How long until he decides this politics lark is a waste of time?
    He is prisons minister which is actually an important role in an area that interests him
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Newly published Survation poll sees LAB up 2 to a 6 point lead

    And even on Con Home favourabity ratings, it’s Ruth Davidson that tops the polls. Most members are not that ideologically committed one way or the other.
    If Davidson was a Leaver she would win easily but she is not and she is not interested in the job snyway
    LOL and people moan about Jezza, no wonder public is flocking to Labour. Davidson is crap, surely there must be be one or two talented people in Tory party among all the donkeys.
    Davidson made the biggest gains of any Tory leader in Scotland for decades in June
    Leaving aside the problem of how she gets into the contest in the first place, I think the only way Davidson gets to become PM is by doing a deal with someone like JRM and running openly on joint ticket.
    I would back JRM as leader and Davidson as deputy
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Newly published Survation poll sees LAB up 2 to a 6 point lead

    She really needs to go.

    Six points behind with the gold standard and losing at PMQs on the subject of the economy to Jezbollah.
    This is daft - why sacrifice another candidate on the Brexit process? Wait, get the negotiation done, then bring in the next candidate to deal with the post Brexit environment.
    Because the longer she stays the bigger Corbyn’s majority.

    It is like osmosis, her shiteness is now damaging the Tory brand.
    The shiteness won't be changed sufficiently by replacing her with Boris, Davis, Hammond, Gove, Rudd or whoever. Not at the moment anyway. It all stems from Brexit and the splits internally, and the difficulty in reaching a deal with the EU, will not be resolved by a change of leader.

    She needs a reshuffle to bring in the next generation and then time to mature as potential leadership candidates. Someone untainted can then lead the party into 2022.
    Absolutely and depressingly it seems I have to re-educate TSE on this point almost every week. But even my patience and loyalty is being stretched to breaking point.

    Time is now running very very short for this reshuffle to bring on new talent into senior positions with credible leadership prospects three years hence.

    If these changes do not take place before Christmas, and the govt staggers on in pathetic aimlessness well then, this Tory activist is in oh, ffs, PM, just GO and let’s be done with you.
    I would like to see a reshuffle too. But who can she sack? Can we collectively come up with a plausible, balanced list of (say) 6 Cabinet ministers?
    Johnson, Truss, Javid, Green, Grayling, Leadsom - that’s my first six. More may follow.
    If May goes anytime soon either Davis or Johnson are almost certain to be the next PM
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 77% chance that TMay’ll make it to the end o

    Just rejoice at this news, but not soon enough.

    Mirror reports that Theresa May to has pencilled in Friday, August 30, 2019 as the day she will quit as Prime Minister.

    So Boris could be PM by the beginning of September
    'The plan is to have a leadership election over the summer of 2019 with the winner announced on August 30.
    The new PM would then face MPs on Tuesday, September 3, as Parliament returns from its summer break. '

    So suggests a new Tory leader, probably Davis or Boris, by the end of August 2019 with a likely general election in 2020.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-sets-date-shell-quit-11061894
    Theresa stands down on her own terms (without having to be stabbed in the back of the front) Summer 2019.

    Who could have forseen that? ;)

    No idea who will succeed her but if we're in a "transition" phase it will be a Brexiteer as the party will be keen to make sure Brexit is achieved without any more backsliding...

    And this means no general election until 2022 if there's a two year transition as the transition will have to have ended and the UK be properly "out" before the Tories can go to the country again (maybe explains why Boris only wants a one year transition which would then make 2020 viable for an election?)
    Yes it will be a likely Davis v Boris contest, Davis having negotiated the deal, Boris promising to see Brexit through.

    2020 is still more likely than 2022 for the general election in my view, especially if Boris wins for as you have said he only wants a 1 year transition so by May 2020 that transition will have ended and he can try and get an overall majority for full Brexit with it seems Corbyn campaigning to go back to a transition period if he wins and presumably continued free movement