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IanB2

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IanB2
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  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some numbers that could help TMay’s survival. Another poll, Yo

    "In earlier times she would have been toppled within days. "

    She won the election.
    She went into the election 3 years early to try increase her majority. She ended up losing a majority. That is failure.
    She won the election.
    But lost the argument.
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chart that shows general election campaigns don’t matter (

    Most of the ascribed swing is actually Mori's polling error rather than an actual shift in opinion.
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s Euratom row does not bode well for the year ahead

    Morning all, from sunny Kiev. A very perceptive article from David as usual, I think he's right that the public in general are going to get fed up of all the Brexit stuff - the vote was a year ago and they want the politicians to just get on with it.
    I think that a common reaction, but actually the politicians are getting on with it. Indeed the Queens Speech contains nothing else. The idea that such major and all encompassing change can happen overnight is delusional.
    I agree with that, the politicians and government are indeed doing almost nothing else.
    I was thinking more of those who should be engaging with the process instead complaining about it in public, with headlines like "Brexit Will Give You Cancer" as we saw last week.
    Government is going to be very absorbed with Brexit. Those with individual concerns are probably best advised to head for the tabloids since it will be the best way of securing government attention. And if Brexit really does threaten to be disruptive for medical supplies, that is a tad newsworthy, don't you think? Or are you of the Andrea Leadsom school of patriotism?
    I certainly wouldn't describe myself as being a Leadsom, although maybe a Hannan on a good day.
    The Royal Colleges and the DoH have clearly got this on their radar (so to speak!), and the tabloid hysteria and scaremongering adds way more heat than light to the debate.

    The general public will be wondering how the rest of the world's hospitals manage to cope perfectly well outside Euratom.
    One of the biggest challenges we face is the urgent need to recreate institutional frameworks (such as new regulatory bodies) for managing regulations across a wide variety of fields, that are currently dealt with through the EU. Otherwise we will reach the A50 date and be unable to answer basic questions about how to get things regulated or certified, and all the legislation freshly copied into UK law will be unworkable since it won't have the mechanisms in place to make it all work.

    You might think this is an obvious point, but it isn't one I have heard anyone on government talking about.
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s Euratom row does not bode well for the year ahead

    The Tories know they will be held accountable for the outcome for a generation, and for those of their MPs with concerns, this will be their last chance to influence history in a different direction. Whereas Labour MPs all have a potential upside if they can bring the government down, even those that might objectively have supported the proposition rather than the amendment. That's why, with one or two exceptions (such as Hoey), I think the Labour side will find it easier to stick together than the Tories.
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose

    So it is possible to become a senior government politician and still have no self awareness whatsoever.