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Jonathan

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Jonathan
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  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMontgomerie says BoJo would be a massive roll of the dice but

    Gary Gibbon on ch4 news said a cabinet minister told him you will never see Boris on a ballot paper to the conservative members.
    Uncontested.
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov poll has Corbyn ahead of TMay as “best PM”

    ..
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ipsos MORI guide to what happened segment by segment at GE

    Can anyone confirm Hezza's assertion that Tory voters are dying out at the rate of 70% of 2% a year ie by 1.4% at the same time as new 18 year olds are registering boosting Labour's support by 1.4%,a total of the age demographic 2.8 % per year?
    This could mean the Tories are favoured by an early election because of the high mortality rates of their supporters and Labour would be better served in securing an overall majority in 3 years time when more Tory voters will have died off.
    Mortality rates could be another key factor in predicting election outcomes.
    It overlooks the fact that there are voters who have switched over to the Tories, to replace those who are dying off.

    In 1997, today's 45-54 year old age cohort were 25-34 years old. Back then, they voted 48% to 28% for Labour. This time, they voted 43% to 40% for the Conservatives.
    Plato being one of them, for example.
    Plato voted for Paddy Ashdown.
    My understanding is that she was a fan of Blair in his first term.
    She said she voted for Ashdown in 97. She may have voted Labour once after that. The idea that Plato was ever representative of a Labour voter was a fiction that existed in her mind alone.
    She was not representative of a traditional Labour voter, certainly. But, there were a lot of non-traditional Labour voters who were won over in 1993-2001.
    The idea that there is more than one Plato, that she represent anyone, is the sort of dystopian horror that keeps all but the Daily Mail features editor awake at night.
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ipsos MORI guide to what happened segment by segment at GE

    Can anyone confirm Hezza's assertion that Tory voters are dying out at the rate of 70% of 2% a year ie by 1.4% at the same time as new 18 year olds are registering boosting Labour's support by 1.4%,a total of the age demographic 2.8 % per year?
    This could mean the Tories are favoured by an early election because of the high mortality rates of their supporters and Labour would be better served in securing an overall majority in 3 years time when more Tory voters will have died off.
    Mortality rates could be another key factor in predicting election outcomes.
    It overlooks the fact that there are voters who have switched over to the Tories, to replace those who are dying off.

    In 1997, today's 45-54 year old age cohort were 25-34 years old. Back then, they voted 48% to 28% for Labour. This time, they voted 43% to 40% for the Conservatives.
    Plato being one of them, for example.
    Plato voted for Paddy Ashdown.
    My understanding is that she was a fan of Blair in his first term.
    She said she voted for Ashdown in 97. She may have voted Labour once after that. The idea that Plato was ever representative of a Labour voter was a fiction that existed in her mind alone.
    She was not representative of a traditional Labour voter, certainly. But, there were a lot of non-traditional Labour voters who were won over in 1993-2001.
    And in my experience they are nothing like Plato. She was spinning in her usual way. Boy would she love us talking about her.
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure ratchets up on beleaguered Theresa

    The irony is that London has never felt more affluent, confident and agreeable than on this dulcet Sunday evening.

    I went for a walk through Primrose Hill and Regent's Park just now. It was a sea of happy picnickers, of all races, ages, and sizes, guzzling wine, hummus and champagne, from beginning to end.
    It's Saturday.
    Indeed. Life here, on Primrose Hill Borders, is so sweet we don't even CARE what day it is.
    Yes Sean, the world is great when you are surrounded by wealthy Lefties. Don't leave - you wouldn't like the world outside.
    I'm drunk and happy. Today I had an orgasm with my girlfriend that was so intense it made my head wobble, like a mildly doubtful Hindu shopkeeper.

    True Story.


    Come again?