I note that the idea that the boundary changes are for anything except party advantage is no longer concealed.The DUP will want more than a few peerages, indeed I think they'll block the boundary changes as they are poor for the Ulstermen.I think this is completely wrong. There are now fewer Tory MPs to placate, and the loss of the majority just shows how vital boundary changes are for the party's future, so it's more likely it will go through. The extension of the parliamentary term means they can even use the Parliament Act.I think the changes will be less beneficial for Tories than they would have appeared to be and with 50 less seats there will be some MPs that will have real concerns about themselves being shuffled out of Parliament or end up in a far less favourable seat, there's not a chance of it passing.Betfair already has a market up for next GE.What likelihood is there of the boundary changes going through before the next election? Does it merely depend on the date of the election or does the current make up of parliament make it unlikely the boundary changes will progress. Anyone have a view?
Perhaps surprisingly, Con is favourite to win most seats.
At GE 2017, Con got 56 more seats with a 2.4% lead.
Does anyone yet have the figures for (assuming UNS):
- Con lead needed for Con maj
- Lab lead needed for equal Con/Lab seats (it must be a Lab lead I think)
- Lab lead needed for Lab maj
They can buy the DUP off with peerages.
Makes sense.I'd like to share some thoughts on Labour.Yes. Sage advice.
Firstly, Jezza needs to stay for the next 2 or 3 years. We need Strength and Stability during this time of uncertainty with the government, and it would not be right to change leader with the chance of another election in the autumn or next spring.
Secondly, the PLP and wider party needs to come together. This works both ways, with those on the right of the party giving Corbyn credit for what he has achieved and the Corbynites acknowledging that others are not 'Red Tories'.
Thirdly, it is clear that we are now unashamedly a Socialist Party, not Social Democrats, and that is where we should stay in order to keep our 40% and build on it.
Fourthly, we need a shadow cabinet that includes three strands:
* Current members who had a good campaign, such as Thornberry and Gardner
* Big beasts currently on the back benches, such as Cooper and Benn
* Potential future leaders, who can prove themselves over the next couple of years then be ready to take over from Jezza. Clive Lewis plus ??? from the soft - left. They need to have the popularity and personality of Corbyn without the baggage that lost us some voters.
Anyway, that's my two-peneth.
Polls and door-knocking results are out of sync.....Except they aren't entirely. People are rightly cautious about anecdotal canvass reports in principle, but they readily believe reports that support what they think is the narrative.
Who wants to make foxes a protected species?This is all nonsense. Hunting accounted for (and to the extent the law is evaded still accounts for) only a small percentage of fox deaths. It's a sport, not a serious means of fox contol.
And who wants to make them extinct in the UK?
Those are basically the options if we properly ban hunting. Foxes are a major pest to free range poultry farmers; they are allowed to, and will, kill them brutally to protect their birds. If they're not 'cultivated' for hunting they will soon die out.