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  • Re: » Blog Archive » This is one betting market I’m absolutely confident the punter

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
    Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
    My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.

    As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.

    The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.

    Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU, serious, public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.

    I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
    If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
    How many times can one poster underestimate Jezza
    Three times. His election. His survival. His General Election

    After that, nah. You can sense the Corbymania draining away. Sorry
    It would make sense as these manias tend to last only a few months, just long enough for their followers to plan for their world conquests:

    2007 Brown
    2008 Cameron
    2010 Clegg
    2012 Miliband
    2015 Osborne
    2016 May
    2017 Corbyn
  • Re: » Blog Archive » As the Brexit Bill goes into the committee stage punters remai

    There was Labour MP from some remainer organisation on R5 last night complaining that the vote being offered by Davis was meaningless and that the Commons should perhaps see a draft of the agreement so they could go through the minutiae of the deal line by line. It seemed to me that this was completely and utterly deluded. The underlying premise was what the House of Commons wants, the HoC gets. Which is of course nonsense when negotiating with a third party who are not in any way bound by or even interested in the decisions of the HoC.

    We are at a real risk here of making meaningful negotiation with the EU, and hence any deal, impossible. As a deal is undoubtedly in our interests that would be very unfortunate. But it is not hard to see a scenario where obsessive remainers in the HoC make a sensible deal impossible and then turn around to say, "we told you leaving was a bad idea" when the absence of a deal causes disruption.
    The obsessive Leavers are capable of making a sensible deal impossible without any outside assistance.
    But they are getting it anyway. And it is not helping.
    I have no sympathy with self-identifying moderate Leavers. They have at no point sought to build a consensus or compromise with reachable Remainers and instead have cringed cravenly before the loony Leavers, never challenging even their most extreme pronouncements. The consequences were entirely predictable.
    I have no sympathy with self-identifying moderate Remainers. They have at no point sought to build a consensus or compromise with reachable Leavers and instead have cringed cravenly before the loony Remainers, never challenging even their most extreme pronouncements. The consequences were entirely predictable.

    Perhaps this is an issue where people are drawn to the extremes.
  • Re: » Blog Archive » PB / Polling Matters podcast: German election special & Labour

    So this international trade business is all going swimmingly, eh Brexiteers? How lucky we are to have that intellectual titan, Liam Fox, working on it and reassuring us how incredibly easy it's all going to be.
    Nothing to worry about - the trillion pound of exports by 2020 George predicted is a certainty.
  • Re: » Blog Archive » The election that looked boring and a certainty now becomes ha

    Long time lurker here, so here's my two penneth worth.

    1. Risk that UKIP to Tory vote is piling up in Tory safe seats.
    I think its underestimated how many UKIP voters in safe Conservative constituencies are actually former Labour and/or LibDem voters.

    Many will be attracted by Corbyn's anti-establishment line.
  • Re: » Blog Archive » The election that looked boring and a certainty now becomes ha

    It occurs to me that I haven't seen anything at all from the Conservative Party this campaign. No billboards, no flage, no facebook adverts, no leaflets, certainly no actual humans. Nothing at all. Very little from any of the other parties either, but absolutely nothing from the Conservatives. Now I live in a safe Labour seat so maybe the campaign is being fought elsewhere. But two years ago I saw a lot more than this.
    Ditto for me.

    I do know that the Conservatives have been sending glossy leaflets in Bassetlaw though.

    So there's likely some differential targeting taking place.